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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 3: we have, chrissal.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do a lot to get to you this morning.

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Speaker 1: Some really interesting economic trends, some of which point in

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Speaker 1: opposite directions. We want to break all of that down

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Speaker 1: for you. Quite fascinating data that is coming out. Also,

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court with a unanimous ruling on corruption very

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Speaker 1: much limiting what the definite of corruption even is, so

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Speaker 1: that's interesting to dig into, as well as involves a

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Speaker 1: former Andrew Cuomo aid, so kind of remarkable case there.

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Speaker 1: We also have Trump hitting DeSantis on abortion and pro

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Speaker 1: life groups hitting.

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Speaker 4: Trump on abortion, So a lot going on there.

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Speaker 1: In the GOP primary, we have a bit of a

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Speaker 1: reckoning within the diversity and inclusion industry and a totally

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Speaker 1: nonsense piece for The New York Times that we got

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Speaker 1: a break down for you.

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Speaker 4: That Durham Report Long.

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Speaker 1: Waited is out with some pretty remarkable conclusions there and

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Speaker 1: some pretty remarkable reactions from CNN. And we're also very

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Speaker 1: excited because today, assuming everything works out, it's looking good,

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Speaker 1: we're going to have a big sit down interview with

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Speaker 1: RFK Junior right here in the studio, and we're getting

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Speaker 1: a good amount of time to talk to him as well.

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Speaker 2: That's right, So our FK Junior will be joining us

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Speaker 2: here at the desk, the beautiful desk here in studio

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Speaker 2: after the show.

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Speaker 3: Here's how it's going to work.

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Speaker 2: So, as we've always promised our premium subscribers, they're going

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Speaker 2: to get the first crack at the interview almost immediately

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Speaker 2: after Trapped. We'll have it edited and then we will

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Speaker 2: send it out, publish it on the podcast, and send

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Speaker 2: it out as an email to all of our premium subs.

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Speaker 2: We will release a clip later today from the RFK interview,

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Speaker 2: but if you want to watch the full thing first

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Speaker 2: and support our work, our ability to convene, you know,

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Speaker 2: things like this Breakingpoints dot Com. You can become a

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Speaker 2: premium member today otherwise the full interview will be available

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Speaker 2: for everyone tomorrow and promises you know and all that

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Speaker 2: we're not editing anything, we're not cutting anything.

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Speaker 3: It will be the full uncut. There's no you know, there's.

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Speaker 2: Nothing being business effectively, no ABC News over here which

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Speaker 2: will cut out whatever he said. He can say whatever

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Speaker 2: he wants, whatever he says, we will publish it.

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Speaker 3: By the way, YouTube that's not necessarily an endorsement.

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Speaker 2: That's right, genuinely is one of the most censored people

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Speaker 2: on the planet, So from where that comes from, it's

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Speaker 2: not an endorsement, but we will publish it nonetheless. And

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Speaker 2: if they decide to take it down, well that's their decision.

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Speaker 2: We'll make sure that it lives elsewhere for everybody consumed,

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Speaker 2: because we believe in democracy here non censorship.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, we want to treat RFK Junior

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Speaker 1: just like we have other presdential can that's that we've interviewed.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of issues that you know, I haven't

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Speaker 1: heard him speak to that. We want to get him

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Speaker 1: on the record on and see what his thoughts are

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Speaker 1: about how he would govern if he was in fact

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Speaker 1: President of the United States, so big sit down interview

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Speaker 1: with him. Super excited about that. We're going to schedule

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Speaker 1: one with Marianne as well. She's obviously been on the

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Speaker 1: show before, but we haven't done a full proper you know,

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Speaker 1: let's dig into the weeds of what your agenda is.

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Speaker 1: And of course, Joe Biden, you're always invited on the

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Speaker 1: program as well.

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Speaker 2: Listen, I would love to make it happen. We requested

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Speaker 2: to the White House before.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not holding my breath, but listen, we would love

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Speaker 1: to do the same treatment with the current President of

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Speaker 1: the United States and Trumps absolutely absolutely, one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: interested in talking to all of them. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and get to you some big economic news

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Speaker 1: this morning New York Times with a deep dive into

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Speaker 1: some pretty fascinating migration trends, which our start contrast with

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Speaker 1: recent history in terms of the United States. Going and

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Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. Coastal cities priced out

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Speaker 1: low wage workers. Now college graduates are leaving two and

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Speaker 1: what they're tracking here, and you can see on this

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Speaker 1: first graphic, this is the San Francisco numbers. You can

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Speaker 1: see those blue bars. For years you had a net

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Speaker 1: influx of college grads heading to the largest metros, these

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Speaker 1: superstar cities that seem to be gobbling up all the

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Speaker 1: wealth and all the top graduates from all the top schools.

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Speaker 4: For years and years that was the case.

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Speaker 1: Well, just recently that has flipped and you now have

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Speaker 1: net out migration from these top tier cities of college graduates.

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Speaker 1: Let me just show you some more of the numbers

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Speaker 1: here from other top cities around the country, and then

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Speaker 1: we can dig into why this is happening.

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Speaker 4: So these are the numbers for DC.

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Speaker 1: You can see again, for years you had a net

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Speaker 1: influx of college graduates. Now over the past couple of years,

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Speaker 1: really post pandemic, you have net out migration. So college

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Speaker 1: graduates leaving the very expensive we can attest to of Washington, DC.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at the numbers in New York. Now,

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Speaker 1: New York, this trend is longer standing. You have a

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Speaker 1: lot of red here over the past decade of college

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Speaker 1: graduates leaving this extraordinarily expensive city. And if we put

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Speaker 1: all of this together, just put up this one last

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Speaker 1: slide here, you can see they're the number of college

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Speaker 1: graduates who in recent years have been leaving the twelve

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Speaker 1: most expensive large metro areas, but in other large metros

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Speaker 1: outside of that top twelve they are still gaining college graduates.

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Speaker 1: So it really is a very select phenomenon that reflects

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Speaker 1: the extraordinarily high cost of housing and cost of just

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Speaker 1: living in general in these top tier most expensive cities

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Speaker 1: in the whole country.

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Speaker 4: And as I said.

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Speaker 1: Before, this really reverses a trend that has been going

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Speaker 1: on for the past several decades where those cities seem

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Speaker 1: to be a magnet for nearly everything. Now with people sober,

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Speaker 1: I think in particular having a kind of a you

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Speaker 1: know reset during the pandemic, not in the nefarious term,

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Speaker 1: yes version of the world, I mean, you know, and

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Speaker 1: people being sort of forced to rethink what their priorities

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Speaker 1: in life were forced out of the workplace. And now

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Speaker 1: there's a positive side to this, which is a lot

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Speaker 1: more workers, huge numbers of workers, having the opportunity to

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Speaker 1: choose do I want to be fully remote? Do I

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Speaker 1: want to be fully in the office? Do I want

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Speaker 1: to have a hybrid work model that also opens up

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Speaker 1: more flexibility where it's like, why am I going to

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Speaker 1: live in some tiny expensive apartment in New York City

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Speaker 1: When I can move to a second tier city, a

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Speaker 1: Louisville or an Austin, which still has all of these

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Speaker 1: urban amenities, but is much less expensive, and I'm still

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Speaker 1: earning my New York City salary. So many college graduates

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Speaker 1: are making that choice, and it could have huge ramifications for,

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Speaker 1: you know, future economy of the whole country.

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Speaker 2: I want to balance some of my thoughts here, and

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Speaker 2: I've done monologues and stuff on the before, So first

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Speaker 2: let's start with the good and just the interesting.

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Speaker 3: The good news is, I believe in mobility, and I.

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Speaker 2: Believe that ossified places place like here, Washington, d C,

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Speaker 2: New York City, places where they still have these things

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Speaker 2: called broker fees.

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Speaker 3: If you are not from this area, google it. It's

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Speaker 3: one of the most insane things that exist.

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Speaker 4: Yeh innerworka apartment hunt. Oh no, it's madness, terrible.

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Speaker 2: You're just getting robbed left right, So you know, to

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Speaker 2: see brokers out of their fees.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna smile. Okay, So that's a good thing.

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Speaker 2: Washington, d C, New York City, San Francisco have family

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Speaker 2: members and or friends who have probably lived in every

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Speaker 2: metro area in the country in the last five years.

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Speaker 2: That was the thing to do. Now, without fail, almost

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Speaker 2: all of them have moved. Now why did they move?

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Speaker 2: And almost entirely it's because cost of living, crime, and

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Speaker 2: just the general feeling that this is not the place

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Speaker 2: that I need to be anymore, especially given the fact

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Speaker 2: that I can get more banged from my buck outside.

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Speaker 3: And this is having dramatic changes.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the interesting part because interestingly, if just

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Speaker 2: ten percent of the white collar workforce move in some

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Speaker 2: way in the next let's say five years. This is

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Speaker 2: from Derek Thompson at the Atlantic, it will be the

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Speaker 2: largest internal migration in the United statess World War two.

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Speaker 2: So this alone, you cannot underestimate how much this will

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Speaker 2: change everything. Because internal migration doesn't only change the tax

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Speaker 2: base of different states, it changes the political makeup of states.

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Speaker 2: Arizona is going to become way more purple because of

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Speaker 2: the incoming number of people both from California but across

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Speaker 2: the entire US. Idaho, for example, Boise, Idaho had one

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Speaker 2: of the most booming real estate markets in the United

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Speaker 2: States because of its proximity to California. But let's not

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Speaker 2: forget that with changing politics not only changes electoral maps.

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Speaker 2: That's how Atlanta and Georgia become purple as well, but

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Speaker 2: also places like Ohio with net out migration are going

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Speaker 2: to become more read.

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Speaker 3: Here's the issue. By and large, this is only a

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Speaker 3: white collar phenomenon.

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Speaker 2: And actually it's becoming worse for a lot of rural

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Speaker 2: and working class people who already lived in the set areas.

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Speaker 2: Can we throw up the emerging divide graphic please, the

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Speaker 2: share of working Americans who moved in the previous year.

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Speaker 2: But what you can see there is that in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty a massive spike occurred with those with college degrees,

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Speaker 2: but the overall down trend of the share of working

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Speaker 2: age Americans without a college degree has gone down dramatically

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Speaker 2: after the pandemic. We are now around twelve percent, whereas

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Speaker 2: above fifteen percent about fifteen years ago. The reason why

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Speaker 2: that matters is that mobility for non white collar workers

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Speaker 2: is incredibly important for them to also be able to

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Speaker 2: take advantage of all those benefits. So I am hearing

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Speaker 2: story after story of I lived in Charlotte my whole life.

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Speaker 2: I was able to rent an apartment for X number

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Speaker 2: of dollars. Now all of these workers from New York

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Speaker 2: City are here, and I have to move forty five

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Speaker 2: minutes out. I had to drive in, and I'm screwed,

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Speaker 2: and now I will I'm paying the same amount of

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Speaker 2: money for less house or for a longer commute, I

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Speaker 2: have to pay more and gas, and I'm farther away

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Speaker 2: from being able to save up from a house that

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Speaker 2: was near my parents. I'm hearing this literally constantly from

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Speaker 2: people who live in places like Charlotte or Boise, or

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Speaker 2: Phoenix or even I mean Austin at this point is

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Speaker 2: like New York City, but let's even say San Antonio, Houston, Dallas.

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Speaker 2: All these places had major internal migration over the last

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Speaker 2: couple of years. I did a monologue in the past

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Speaker 2: of breaking down with all those exact cities. Basically, if

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Speaker 2: you live in the sun Belt like Atlanta, or you know,

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Speaker 2: even in elsewhere somewhere in Florida, you are going to

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Speaker 2: have a real hard time if you were did not

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Speaker 2: get the same wage increased. You don't have the same

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Speaker 2: mobility of the person who has a white collar thing.

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Speaker 2: So we both have benefits, but we also have a

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Speaker 2: lot of minuses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So the downside is that this creates an unincool

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Speaker 1: situation where white collar workers are they have the flexibility,

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Speaker 1: they have the hybrid work situation.

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Speaker 4: Or full remote situation.

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Speaker 1: They could move wherever they want but still earn the

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Speaker 1: coastal city salaries that they were earning previously, or take

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Speaker 1: you know, a relatively moderate cut off of those that's

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Speaker 1: more than made up for by the cost of living

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Speaker 1: going down in the places they're moving to. The downside

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Speaker 1: is definitely, as you're saying Soccer, that people who already

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Speaker 1: live in those places, who are seeing housing prices now

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Speaker 1: go up. Now they're not matching the expense of like

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Speaker 1: a San Francisco or in La or in New York,

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Speaker 1: but they're seeing significant increases in terms of housing prices

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Speaker 1: and other you know, other like just basic cost of

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Speaker 1: living expenses.

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Speaker 4: That's obviously going to be an issue for them.

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Speaker 1: The other bright side, though, is that, you know, we've

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Speaker 1: had this incredibly unequal economic growth across the country and

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Speaker 1: it has fed a lot of you know, very divisive

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Speaker 1: and polarizing politics too, where you have these couple of

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Speaker 1: superstar megacities that are generating a disproportionate amount of the

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Speaker 1: growth and the jobs and the economic activity, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: And you know, for the working class of people or

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Speaker 1: who have been living in those major metro areas. It's

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Speaker 1: been a positive because the jobs are there. It's been

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Speaker 1: a dramatic negative because the influx of all of those

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Speaker 1: people has made the cost of living so wildly unexpensive

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Speaker 1: that is just completely insane. So there are also benefits

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Speaker 1: to potentially having economic growth more evenly distributed across the country.

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Speaker 1: And we don't have these graphics made, but if you

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Speaker 1: dig into this place, into this piece, it's not just

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Speaker 1: like the next tier of cities that college educated workers

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Speaker 1: are moving to. It's also small cities. It's also even

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Speaker 1: rural America and small town America. Now, this is a

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Speaker 1: group of workers that, for better or worse, have been

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Speaker 1: really catered to and sought after. Cities have gone on

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Speaker 1: of their way to try to figure out, like what

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Speaker 1: if we create an arts district and attract this or

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Speaker 1: that coffee shop, how do we bring in this group

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Speaker 1: of people.

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Speaker 3: Are nice, let's not get out of hand.

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Speaker 1: I'm not honest Bobby shops, all right, but you know

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Speaker 1: they've gone out of their way to attract this group

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Speaker 1: of people, and it will be a benefit to the

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Speaker 1: country if you have more evenly distributed you know, college

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Speaker 1: educated workers everywhere across the country. If you have economic

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Speaker 1: activity being generated in more towns and cities across the country,

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Speaker 1: and not just in these major metro urban areas. So,

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Speaker 1: like you said, there's definitely there's silver linings here.

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Speaker 4: There's good, there's bad.

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Speaker 1: More than anything, it's just fascinating to see the way

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Speaker 1: that this could remake both our politics and also our economy.

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Speaker 4: Even a small shift.

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Speaker 1: In where workers are going when they're coming out of college,

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Speaker 1: what that looks like in terms of the national landscape,

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Speaker 1: can be incredibly transformative. I also thought it was really interesting,

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Speaker 1: you know, they interviewed some of the people here who

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Speaker 1: had made this choice to move out of a New

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Speaker 1: York city or move out of an LA, move out

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Speaker 1: of a San Francisco, and they say, for these high

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Speaker 1: education workers, it's not so easy to separate those who

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Speaker 1: can't afford a city from those who can but leave anyway.

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Speaker 1: Affordability is relative and personal. For one person, it means

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Speaker 1: making rent. For another, it means making enough to also

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Speaker 1: join a gym, by concert tickets and dine out regularly.

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Speaker 1: Even a professional who can afford all of that in

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Speaker 1: New York, they still eventually sour on the sixth floor

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Speaker 1: walk up in the laundromat that comes with it. They

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Speaker 1: describe things like, you know, the people that have made

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Speaker 1: this move describe mention, wanting furniture that couldn't fit in

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Speaker 1: a New York elevator, having a home.

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Speaker 4: Office with the door that closes.

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Speaker 1: Not just cheaper housing, but washing machines, walking closets, and

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Speaker 1: walls to hang artwork. So very different versions of affordability

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Speaker 1: depending on where you are in that classt incomes life.

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Speaker 2: Well, I know people who make half a million dollars

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Speaker 2: a year who said that they just couldn't live in

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Speaker 2: New York, right, Well, how does that work?

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Speaker 3: It's like, well you can.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: What you're really saying is I want to live in

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Speaker 2: a four thousand square foot house and I can't live

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Speaker 2: in for it, and hey, that's fine, and I don't

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Speaker 2: want to pay for you know, whatever X amount for childcare.

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Speaker 2: Whereas if I live here close to my mom, I

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Speaker 2: can have a house and I can live near my

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Speaker 2: mom and have to pay for daycare. So my net

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Speaker 2: is the quality of life is dramatically higher.

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Speaker 3: Like totally.

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Speaker 2: But it's like, just maybe don't say that you can't

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Speaker 2: live in the right exists that you don't want to

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Speaker 2: live in, right, this is like and there is actually

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Speaker 2: nothing wrong with that. Big question is then you know,

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Speaker 2: when X person moves home or near their house, well,

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Speaker 2: who would have bought that house? And they're willing to

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Speaker 2: pay cash whereas somebody else what a financed it? Well,

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Speaker 2: then I can see why the people there are starting

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Speaker 2: to get a little upset. And so I genuinely still

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Speaker 2: think it's a net positive just because as long as

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Speaker 2: we can make sure and this is literally almost like

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Speaker 2: a trickle down theory, as long as we can just

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Speaker 2: make sure that some of this extra money goes into

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Speaker 2: the local economy, right and boosts spending and ability for

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Speaker 2: local businesses and property owners and all that stuff to

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Speaker 2: go up, and that the working class folks can still

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Speaker 2: get some share of the pilot.

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Speaker 3: I think I'm good with it.

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Speaker 2: But unfortunately, as we have generally seen, a lot of

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Speaker 2: that doesn't end up happening.

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Speaker 3: And then also even in terms of the services that

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Speaker 3: pop up.

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Speaker 2: I was just looking yesterday, Manhattan is completely transforming the

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Speaker 2: way that its tax base is working because forty percent

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Speaker 2: of workers are not back in the office.

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Speaker 3: So what have they decided?

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Speaker 2: They said, Manhattan needs to become a playground for the rich. Basically,

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Speaker 2: they're like, we need to turn this into the ultimate

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Speaker 2: party just for the people with these five hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars incomes with no kids, who just want to party

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Speaker 2: twenty four to seven, the ultimate entertainment destination, which will

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Speaker 2: require us rezoning the city and making it so that

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Speaker 2: we can capture our tax base, because if we don't

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Speaker 2: do that, we are going to lose a massive portion

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Speaker 2: of the way that we fund city revenues. This is

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Speaker 2: also a big problem with San Francisco, New York City.

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Speaker 2: In all these places, something like one percent of the

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Speaker 2: population pays almost forty or fifty percent of the tax base.

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Speaker 2: That means that the services for the vast majority of

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Speaker 2: the population literally relies on a few select individuals. And

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Speaker 2: states are not federal governments, Like you can't escape America.

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Speaker 2: Even if you leave America in your US citizen US

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Speaker 2: still have to pay taxes. But if you leave New

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Speaker 2: York City New York City, you don't have to pay

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Speaker 2: New York City taxes anymore.

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Speaker 3: And a lot of them left, a lot of them

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Speaker 3: live in Florida.

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Speaker 2: So even if only a thousand people leave New York City.

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Speaker 2: If it's the right thousand, it can screw you. So

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Speaker 2: that's another reason why keeping your tax system based on

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Speaker 2: that is actually very foolish. You want to I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying that those people shouldn't be taxed. I'm saying you

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Speaker 2: need to make sure that you are not so heavily

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Speaker 2: reliant on a.

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Speaker 3: Few thousand people.

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Speaker 2: Or you get the Eric Adamses of the world and

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Speaker 2: the Kathy Hokals who are like, we need to go

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Speaker 2: back to the office. It's like they're not saying that

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Speaker 2: out of the kindness of their heart.

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Speaker 3: They need the money.

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Speaker 2: They can't do anything if those people don't go to

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Speaker 2: the office. What if New Yorkers don't want to go

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Speaker 2: to the office, maybe you should work on their behalf.

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Speaker 3: But they can't because the system is so screwed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I've talked about there's a real reckoning

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Speaker 1: coming in commercial real life.

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Speaker 4: I hope so, because I mean.

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Speaker 1: There are estimates that the value of commercial like office

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Speaker 1: space real estate could decline by forty percent. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that is an earthquake that is looming over the country,

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Speaker 1: and half of the commercial real estate debt comes due

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Speaker 1: in the next two years. This is multi trillion dollar

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Speaker 1: economy that you know, this is kind of hanging over

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Speaker 1: our entire situation right now. So that's a big piece

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Speaker 1: of this. There was one other part that I thought

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Speaker 1: was interesting, which is they interviewed this economist who is

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Speaker 1: talking about, you know, part of it is how prices

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Speaker 1: out of control. And by the way, we should say,

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Speaker 1: like the politicians that run these cities and states, they've

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Speaker 1: had horrible housing policy and this isn't like a right

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Speaker 1: now phenomenon. This is like right now and over decades,

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Speaker 1: and so that's part of what is pushing people out is.

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Speaker 4: They're like, there's nowhere to live.

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Speaker 1: It's wildly unaffordable, even on you know, quite a hefty salary.

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Speaker 4: Why would I continue to do this?

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Speaker 1: So it's partly these cities have had terrible policies in

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Speaker 1: terms of building out their housing stock to make them

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Speaker 1: affordable places where people can live.

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Speaker 4: That's one piece.

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Speaker 1: But this economist says, you know, some of it is

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Speaker 1: that the most ex expensive places got really expensive, but

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Speaker 1: also the middle tier places became more attractive. This economist

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Speaker 1: has found since two thousand, college graduates have increasingly been

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Speaker 1: moving toward high amenity cities and away from the highest

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Speaker 1: wage ones. Consumer cities, as she puts it, are increasingly

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Speaker 1: replacing producer cities as the places where college graduates want

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Speaker 1: to live. Now, to me that that's obviously a trend

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Speaker 1: that pre dates the pandemic, and as with a lot

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Speaker 1: of the trends that we have tracked, I think the

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Speaker 1: pandemic has accelerated trends that already were bubbling and already

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Speaker 1: were in place.

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Speaker 4: But I do think this reflects a sort of cultural.

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Speaker 1: Mindset shift above and beyond the particular economics of one

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Speaker 1: city or another, where people just have different values for

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Speaker 1: what's most important to them and that is being reflected

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Speaker 1: in their choices of where they decide to live. And

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Speaker 1: then these mid tier cities, since they're trying to attract

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Speaker 1: this group of people, they're building out the amenities that

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Speaker 1: they would want that would make this an appealing place

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Speaker 1: to live. So I thought it was interesting that it

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Speaker 1: wasn't just like these places have become wildly too expensive

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Speaker 1: to live and have these other problems, but also that

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Speaker 1: the mid tier cities have kind of stepped up their

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Speaker 1: game and made themselves more attractive to a broader cohort.

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Speaker 3: The next big question is starlink.

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Speaker 2: When we have apps like America wide high speed Internet

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Speaker 2: no matter where you are, that's when I want to

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Speaker 2: know if stuff will really change. I mean, you saw

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Speaker 2: some of the with the tech workers, you know, people

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Speaker 2: where starlink has been widely available and you can do

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Speaker 2: like starlink for RV. Some people were making like half

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Speaker 2: a million dollars a year living in an RV just

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Speaker 2: driving around wherever they wanted to, literally from national parks,

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Speaker 2: like outside of a lake.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it sounds like a life, let's be honest. Yeah, look,

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Speaker 3: ten years.

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Speaker 2: From now, you know, maybe they can beam in from

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Speaker 2: a studio or somewhere. I'm going to be in a

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Speaker 2: compound somewhere deep in the desert. I love it out there,

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Speaker 2: but you know, the technology is really still not there

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Speaker 2: in terms of reliability. That said, ten years from now,

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Speaker 2: I very much think that could be the case. Now

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Speaker 2: that unlocks economic potential of huge swats not only of

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Speaker 2: the West, but here in the East Coast, which is

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Speaker 2: much more densely populated.

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Speaker 3: We still have a big rural urban divide.

442
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 2: We don't have a lot of starlink or high speed

443
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: internet access as you know in rural areas, even you know,

444
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 2: an hour and a half or so away from Washington, DC,

445
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 2: which to me is insane but from an infrastructure perspective,

446
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 2: but who knows what that will unlock. It also will

447
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 2: unlock a lot of global a lot of the global

448
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 2: workforce when you consider high speed internet no matter where

449
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 2: you are, across the entire Eastern seaboard, not only of

450
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: the United States, but of South America, which will be

451
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: on the same time zone. I mean, I've heard this

452
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 2: from friends who are doing like the.

453
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 3: Digital nomad thing.

454
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,959
Speaker 2: How people in Mexico City are so angry at all

455
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 2: of these remote American workers. But not just there Buenos Irace,

456
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 2: like even Brazil, like any place where you can just

457
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 2: get a tourist visa and still be on East.

458
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 3: Coast time or Central time.

459
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 2: Apparently there are American tech workers who are down there.

460
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 2: And remember that's only like what one two percent of

461
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 2: people who are even able to do that. If you

462
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 2: just increase that to ten percent, that's ten times the

463
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: number who are currently It's millions of people who have

464
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 2: basically total freedom.

465
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 3: Now that's not everybody.

466
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 2: Once again, you know, plumber can't be working from Buenos Iris.

467
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 2: So that's why you got to make sure that they're right.

468
00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 4: Wells, that's true.

469
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 1: But I do want a couple with the fact that

470
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: you know we talked about was that in the show

471
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: yesterday we recorded this as an extras gound post this weekend,

472
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: that job satisfaction is actually an all time high.

473
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 4: Across the board.

474
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 1: I mean, we could obviously do a lot better in

475
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: terms of wages keeping up with inflation, but you had

476
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 1: a lot of people who blue collar or service actor

477
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 1: workers who shifted jobs during the pandemic, either because they

478
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: wanted to or because they were unfortunately forced to, and

479
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: they were able to get higher wages they were able

480
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 1: to get, you know, in sometimes more predictable schedules and

481
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 1: a greater sense of sort of control and autonomy over

482
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: their days, which has contributed to a better landscape in

483
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 1: terms of worker happiness. And to shift into this next piece,

484
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 1: we wanted to just briefly show you in terms of

485
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 1: where we are in terms with the economy, because it

486
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 1: is a very weird and complex picture.

487
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 4: The recent jobs data.

488
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 1: Just came out, Come on, go ahead and put this

489
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 1: up on the screen, and job growth actually did accelerate

490
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: in April. Wage gains increase solidly. They say this points

491
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 1: to assistant labor market strength that could compel the Federal

492
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: Reserved to keep interest rates higher. It's like, oh, we

493
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 1: can't have those good times. We've got to screwfey lives.

494
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: This is always a weirdness of jobs reports during this era.

495
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: It's like, this is a great jobs report, but it

496
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 1: also is a mixed bag because it means that the

497
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: Fed is going to be more determined to crush workers

498
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: and screw them over and hike unemployment and kick a

499
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: bunch of millions of the amount of their jobs and

500
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 1: crush their wages, et cetera. But you know, unemployment rate

501
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: fell back to a fifty three year low three point

502
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 1: four percent. They do note data for February. In March

503
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 1: was revised sharply lower. So important to note because these

504
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 1: numbers could also ultimately be.

505
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 4: Revised sharply lower.

506
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 1: But it does show even though you've had this issue

507
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 1: of inflation which has really impacted workers and made it

508
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: so that many of them are seeing their paychecks eaten

509
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: away and really getting like a net pay decrease every

510
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 1: single month, you do have this tight labor market which

511
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: has made it so that workers can shift jobs and

512
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,640
Speaker 1: shift industries, and you know, have some choice that they

513
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 1: haven't had in a long time. So even though you

514
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 1: know the trends in terms of migration, that choice that

515
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 1: the remote and hybrid work choice isn't there for blue

516
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 1: collar and service sector workers. There are some positive parts

517
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 1: of the labor market right now that are benefiting them

518
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: as well.

519
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right.

520
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to another big trend that

521
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: is being driven in part by what is going on

522
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 1: with AI, which is a lot of white collar jobs

523
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: may be going away. So put this up on the

524
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: screen from the Wall Street Journal. Their headline here is

525
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: the disappearing white collar job.

526
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 4: A once in a.

527
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 1: Generation convergence of tech and pressure to operate more efficiently

528
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: has corporations saying many lost jobs may never return. So

529
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: this is one of the other strange parts of our

530
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: economy right now. While you have huge job demand for

531
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: service sector workers blue collar workers in certain especially in

532
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 1: like warehousing, you also have had this tech session which

533
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: has really hit white collar workers, and a lot of

534
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: the companies that are laying off white collar knowledge workers

535
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 1: right now are saying, we don't have any plans to

536
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: bring them back, because our plan is instead to basically

537
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: replace supplement our existing workforce with AI and make it

538
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: so we don't have to hire.

539
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 4: Back any of these workers.

540
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a dramatic turnaround from the way

541
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: that the economy has been my entire lifetime, where it was,

542
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: you know, the service sector workers and the blue collar

543
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: workers where there weren't enough jobs and you know they're

544
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: retreated as disposable, et cetera. Now you have kind of

545
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: a turn about where it's a lot of white collar

546
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: jobs that are being shed in this economy. In this

547
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: very uneven situation. They say the jobs lost in a

548
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: month's long cascade of white collar layoffs triggered by over

549
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 1: hiring and rising interest rates might never return. Companies are

550
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: rethinking the value of many white collar roles in what

551
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: some experts anticipate will be permanent shift in labor demand

552
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,719
Speaker 1: that will disrupt the work life of millions of Americans

553
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: whose jobs will be lost, diminished, or revamped through the

554
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:04,479
Speaker 1: use of artificial intelligence. A former chief digital officer at

555
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 1: McDonald's Volvo said, we just need fewer people to do

556
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: the same thing. They point in particular to Meta and IBM,

557
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: among other corporations. The head of IBM said in recent weeks,

558
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: he could see thirty percent of IBM's roughly twenty six

559
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: thousand non customer facing roles being replaced by automation or

560
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: AI over a five year period, and for the year

561
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: ending in March, the number of unemployed white collar workers

562
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: actually rose by roughly one hundred and fifty thousand people.

563
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: So very different picture from other parts of the labor

564
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 1: and job market.

565
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, so here's what I generally think about this is

566
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 2: that we are normalizing away from a very stupid period

567
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 2: between the nineteen sixties and mid that peaked in the

568
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: twenty tens of the office job. Now all of the

569
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: benefits of the office job had mostly gone away by

570
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: after the reces Great rescission, but a lot of the

571
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 2: professional degrees, like the idea of just going to go

572
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 2: work for a fortune five hundred company with some generic skills,

573
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 2: we still wasn't paying out but was still genuinely attractive.

574
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 2: Some of that is still the case, since we see

575
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 2: that in the Ivy League and the university, but with

576
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: the market is basically showing us the employment and the

577
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 2: job market generally is if you need to have a

578
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: skill that is genuinely just going to work out for you,

579
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 2: in the long term, because what do we learn from

580
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: these you know, these more like very basic jobs, is

581
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 2: that even you know, people thought, oh, if I just

582
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: get an accounting degree, I'll be able to do well. Well,

583
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,199
Speaker 2: what we see from the chart is actually accounting is

584
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 2: going down pretty dramatically. A lot of that software related

585
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: also whenever it comes to real estate and back end

586
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 2: real estate professionals not saying that that can't be a

587
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 2: skill that you hone, and that there is of course

588
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 2: local like market arbitrage, but as we are really seeing,

589
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 2: we're going, I think more back to a skills based economy.

590
00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: Now.

591
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: That skill though, is not the way that people used

592
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 2: to say that in terms of you know, like learn

593
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 2: to code. It's be a plumber, or be a coder,

594
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 2: or be a nurse, or be a doctor. Or even

595
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: when you're a lawyer, like a niche type of lawyer,

596
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 2: that's still a professional degree, but it's not like a

597
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 2: generic marketing degree.

598
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 3: The skill itself.

599
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: And your ability to dominate that niche or a very

600
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 2: basic service electrician, you know, trade So much work in

601
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 2: the trades is paying out in the long run and

602
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: is also mostly non automatable, and that is why, like

603
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: you can automation proof yourself by having a skill which

604
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 2: you can you know, doesn't take a genius to figure

605
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 2: out what will necessarily go away and what's not. And

606
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 2: the easiest stuff, the stuff like on the floor that

607
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 2: you can just take away, like the ibms and the

608
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: metas is AI for the most generic of marketing skills

609
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 2: like writing copy taglines for product, and that's obviously something

610
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: you can do on chatch ept today.

611
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 3: Why would you hire anybody to do that?

612
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean a lot of legal work is really

613
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: sort of like cut and paste. You know, it's like okay,

614
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: especially if your corporate lawyer and you got to do

615
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: the same basic filing for a one hundred different companies.

616
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: You take the same format, you plug in the different

617
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: company name, the different dollar amounts, whatever. That's gonna be

618
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: very easily automatable. Now, do you need a human being

619
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: at the end of that to take a look make sure.

620
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 4: Nothing g's screwed up? Sure?

621
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: But do you need many fewer man hours to already

622
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: to accomplish that same task.

623
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 4: Absolutely.

624
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 1: A lot of like basic bookkeeping and accounting work, same

625
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: kind of deal. I'm doing my monologue today about how

626
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: AI is already set to completely upend digital news just

627
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: through the summaries that they're going to publish. And when

628
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: you google something, instead of getting a list of links,

629
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: you get a summary of news articles. Are you going

630
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 1: to click through to the links that are down below?

631
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: Many people will not, and so that just completely upends

632
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: the whole business model of digital news gathering.

633
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 4: So a lot of these changes are already here.

634
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 1: There's another piece too, though, which is that a lot

635
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: of these tech companies got way over their skis during

636
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: the pandemic and they thought that the gold rush that

637
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: was the pandemic for tech companies was going to last forever. Yes,

638
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: so you had them staffing up in ways that ended

639
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: up being you know, wildly unsustainable. It's really wrong to

640
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: do to the workers. You know, they're like, oh, sorry,

641
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: we've hired way too many people.

642
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 4: Now you're unemployed.

643
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,479
Speaker 1: But you know, in case after case, so many of

644
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: these tech companies really hired way too aggressively. And then

645
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: when the economy you know, went back to more of

646
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: a normal state and you no longer had people locked

647
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 1: in their homes watching Netflix all day, then you had

648
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: you know, a return and a real reckoning here. So

649
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: that's part of what is going on here too. But

650
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: as we've talked about with AI before, part of what

651
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: is unique is we're used to automation hitting service sector jobs.

652
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: We're used to automation threatening blue collar work.

653
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 4: Well, now AI.

654
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: Is really coming for these white collar jobs. And so

655
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: so as we just laid out, some of this is

656
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: not you know, in the future, ten years down the road.

657
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 4: Some of it is already here.

658
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: And you know, obviously it's a negative anytime you're eliminating

659
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: the need for human beings in you know, an economy

660
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 1: where it really depend on being able to earn a

661
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: wage in order to achieve any sort of basic middle

662
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: class prosperity. But the other piece of this that again

663
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 1: this is the first time in my life that this

664
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: has happened. You've actually had a reversal of inequality. You've

665
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: had inequality going down for the first time in my

666
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: entire life. I mean, from the neoliberal you know, starting

667
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: really under Carter and then solidifying under Reagan and Clinton.

668
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: During that era, you have just had more and more

669
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: and more going to the top ten percent of society

670
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: and this gigantic hollowing out.

671
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: Of the middle.

672
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: Well, now with white collar work under threat, you're having

673
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 1: the college wage premium go down, so that also is

674
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: going to force a reckoning with how much these colleges

675
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: are charging right now, more people saying like this is

676
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: not worth it. There's not a rainbow at the end

677
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 1: of this. There's not a pot of gold, I guess

678
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: at the end of this college rainbow, So why am

679
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 1: I doing this? So there's going to be a reckoning there.

680
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 1: But it's also just remarkable to see that you are

681
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 1: having this convergence in this lessening inequality, which again is

682
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: a dramatic turnaround from what we have seen in the

683
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 1: entirety of my whole life. So that part, in a

684
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: sense is positive.

685
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 4: But I want to.

686
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: See people doing better at the bottom end rather than

687
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: people at the top end getting screwed, is what you

688
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: would ideally like to see happening here exactly. The last

689
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: piece that I want to point to in terms of

690
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: a very strange and uneven economy is that even as

691
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: the labor market is really tight, even as you have

692
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: very low unemployment, a lot of jobs, especially in certain sectors,

693
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: you also have debt levels, personal debt levels at record highs.

694
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 4: Put this up on the screen from CNBC.

695
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 1: Their headline is consumer debt passes seventeen trillion dollars for

696
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: the first time despite slide in mortgage demand. So what

697
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: they're saying there's people aren't taking out new mortgages, which

698
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: means that they're not adding that debt onto whatever they

699
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 1: already have. But in spite of that, the total for

700
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 1: borrowing across all categories hit seventeen point oh five trillion,

701
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: an increase of nearly one hundred and fifty billion, or

702
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: almost one percent, during the January to March period. That

703
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: took total indebtedness up about two point nine trillion from

704
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: pre COVID periods ending in twenty nineteen. Delinquency rates have

705
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: also increased for all debts, so people are struggling to

706
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: be able to pay their credit card bill, pay their

707
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: car loan, pay their mortgage, whatever it is. It's at

708
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 1: point six percentage points for credit cards, up point two

709
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: percentage points for auto loans, and total delinquency rates moved

710
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: up point two percentage points to three percent. Student loan

711
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: debt also edging higher, and auto loans at a nudging

712
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: up as well. They say, so you have a picture

713
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: of American people who are really saddled and struggling under

714
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 1: a huge debt burden, and I would say part of

715
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 1: that is certainly a lot of this is due to inflation,

716
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: do to the fact that things have gotten so much

717
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: more expensive and that it's so hard to obtain, you know,

718
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: to be able to make ends meet, to be able

719
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: to obtain anything approaching like a middle class stability that

720
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: people are putting it on their credit cards and having

721
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: to take out a lot of debt in order to

722
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 1: be able to achieve that.

723
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. So the corporate the debt part is really bad.

724
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: And then in terms of corporate America, where they stand

725
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 2: in what they say or it's exactly the same thing.

726
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: So it's a very odd situation that we're in right now.

727
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 2: Put that up there on the screen. Please about corporate America.

728
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: They say that a recession is already arrived. Obviously we

729
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 2: have the technical definition.

730
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 3: That we already reach.

731
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 2: But they say Wall Street's already enduring what is the

732
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 2: most prolonged corporate profits downturn in seven years, which is

733
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 2: a very easy kind of definition of recession. And when

734
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 2: you can see prolonged downturn, you know, after such a

735
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 2: long period of time twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, combined with

736
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 2: the interest rate cycle.

737
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:57,959
Speaker 3: Just take a genius to see.

738
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,839
Speaker 2: Where things are going and very likely to oh for

739
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 2: a longer period of time.

740
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

741
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 3: So it's a weird situation.

742
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: It's a real mixed bag out there for absolutely everyone,

743
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: no matter what industry, no matter what part of the

744
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: economy you're in. So we just wanted to take some

745
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 1: time to sort through the trends as we see them

746
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 1: now so we can keep.

747
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 4: An eye on them going forward.

748
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: Another really interesting thing that happened at the Supreme Court,

749
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 1: and I would say troubling. Put this up on the screen.

750
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: So this was a unanimous decision. All nine justices tossed

751
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: out the bribery conviction of a former Cuomo aid. So

752
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 1: what happened here is this guy, Joseph Percoco, who was a.

753
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 4: Top aid to Andrew Cuomo. This was his boy.

754
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: He was in the Cuomo administration and then he was

755
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 1: out for a brief time while Cuomo was running for reelection,

756
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: with all expectation that he would end up back in

757
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: the administration and he did. And during that time he

758
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: basically took bribes and I mean it was pretty brazen.

759
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: If you guys watched Sopranos, but they called these bribes

760
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: that they would take ZD.

761
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 4: They were referring to it.

762
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 1: In this situation also as ZD so brazen. Right now,

763
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: they argued that, oh, well, he wasn't in government then,

764
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 1: so he couldn't really be taking bribes because he wasn't

765
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 1: in government. But again it's like, you know, this is

766
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: Quoma's boy. You know, Quoma was likely to end up

767
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: back in office and this guy is too, so you

768
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 1: could have reasonable expectation what is going to happen here?

769
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 1: And he did in fact deliver on you know, what

770
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: he was paid to deliver on. So lower courts had

771
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: found him guilty of corruption, but the justices ended up

772
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: ruling nine to zero in favor of this former Quomo Aid.

773
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: And what the reason why they technically ruled is they

774
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: said that the jury instructions that were given were inaccurate.

775
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: Put this next piece up on the screen so that

776
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 1: this is from Scotus blog. They had a good write

777
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 1: up of this. They say, court throws out conviction of

778
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 1: former Quomo Aid. So he had that the jurors had

779
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 1: been given instruct that the justices determined were not sufficient

780
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: or we're not accurate, and that's what led to this

781
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 1: unanimous ruling.

782
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 4: But soccer when you look at this case, and.

783
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: There was another Cuomo aid whose convictions they also threw out,

784
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: were sort of similar circumstances. And when you consider okay,

785
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: they threw out the former Virginia governor Bob McDonald, they

786
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 1: threw out his conviction as well for bribery. They threw

787
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: out New Jersey gunnor Chris Christie's former aids in the

788
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: pole Bridgegate.

789
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 4: Thing, they threw that out as well.

790
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 1: You can see the Supreme Court really circling their wagons here.

791
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 1: First of all, I think partly in response to the

792
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: corruption allegations levied against them. This is like a little

793
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: bit of ass covering for themselves personally, but more broadly,

794
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 1: because this has been a trend going on for a

795
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 1: long time, they're making it so that corruption is so

796
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: narrowly defined you have to literally be like taking a

797
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: bag of cash that says.

798
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: For political corruption, and.

799
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 1: You get caught on tape saying I am taking this

800
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: money as a bribe because I am corrupt. For them

801
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 1: to even count this as public corruption at a time

802
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: when trust and institutions exactly from this type of crap

803
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: is at all time lows.

804
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 2: What's crazy to me is that the quid pro quo

805
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: is not in dispute at all. They paid him thirty

806
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: five thousand dollars to expedite a job without union agreement.

807
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 2: He made the call and the job was expedited, so

808
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: the quid pro quo is done. He was, however, at

809
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 2: the time, managing the reelection campaign in twenty fourteen, so

810
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 2: apparently that makes it okay. And I think that the

811
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 2: clear response here is if they have decided to interpret

812
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,399
Speaker 2: the law this way, then we just got to change

813
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 2: the law.

814
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 3: I mean, there's no other way around it.

815
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: I mean, we have to make it so that quid

816
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 2: pro quos of any time of any kind involving government services,

817
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 2: regardless of whether you are in government or not, if

818
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:50,720
Speaker 2: you're using your influence to do so, we have to

819
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 2: demand and expand it so that you can be convicted

820
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 2: of corruption. Now here's the problem, though, Who's going to

821
00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 2: lobby against that? The government services and lobbying industry here

822
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: in Washington. It would put I don't even know how

823
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: many thousands of people here. Maybe honestly, the entire city,

824
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 2: the entire city really runs on lobby cash.

825
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 3: So I don't know if it's possible.

826
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 2: Now I'm saying theoretically we should change the law, but listen,

827
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 2: there's a reason that we define the law this way,

828
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: and it's because what's going on around us is legalized bribery.

829
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: And if we actually go after real bribery the way

830
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 2: that it's commonly understood, not technically understood, then we would

831
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 2: put an entire Washington industry out of business.

832
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 1: And that's why you have a unanimous decision. Course, Conservatives, liberals,

833
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 1: they were all one on this one and on some

834
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,760
Speaker 1: of the other decisions that were made as well, because

835
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: it's not just the present lobbyist class K Street class,

836
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 1: but all of these lawmakers, the public servants quote unquote,

837
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: they see themselves going in cash and as lobbyists.

838
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,760
Speaker 4: Down the road as well.

839
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 1: So they're looking out for their ability right now as

840
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 1: legislators to take campaign cash or whatever whatever perks are

841
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 1: given to them in order to do the will of

842
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 1: these lobbyists. And they're also looking out for their future

843
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: job prospects by making sure that none of the reforms

844
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: that we would want to see made to make this

845
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: law much more clear and expand it so that there

846
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: is an actual standard of hey, you're a public servant.

847
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: You're not here to take bribes and serve the interest

848
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 1: of this lobbyist class. None of that can come to

849
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 1: pass because of people looking out for their own pocketbook

850
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 1: and bottom line.

851
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:23,280
Speaker 4: It really is disgusting.

852
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 1: And to see it in such a you know, uniparty

853
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 1: state here, every single one of these justices coming together

854
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: to make sure that corruption is so narrowly defined that

855
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: it basically doesn't even exist in their minds.

856
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 4: It's pretty disgraceful to.

857
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: Behold that is where it is.

858
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 2: Just I mean, I'm untorn because technically in the way

859
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 2: they're doing the law or evaluating the law, I guess,

860
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 2: you know, is it their fault or is it the law?

861
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 3: Like I think, really what it is like we have

862
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 3: to change the law.

863
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 2: And I think it also was passed in such a

864
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 2: way and written in such a way to make it

865
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: amenable for people like this so that it doesn't happen.

866
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, their job is to simply analyze

867
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 2: it within the bounds of like what's on the book.

868
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: So that just means Congress has to do his job

869
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 2: and pass on. Now, I'm not an idiot. I know

870
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 2: that that won't change. But you know, new York state

871
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: law could apply here, like you could definitely apply bribery conviction.

872
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 2: You can change things on a state by state level

873
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 2: in terms of what is technically possible. Once again, I

874
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 2: just think that the only reason it doesn't change is

875
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 2: that so many things are already legalized bribery that.

876
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:23,919
Speaker 3: They don't want to put them out of business. Yes, yeah,

877
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 3: and that's the I mean, that would be there.

878
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 1: And there's just like bipartisan shame in this all around,

879
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 1: so they have no interest in changes.

880
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:35,320
Speaker 2: What would all of the former's aids to Clarence Thomas

881
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: and all of them do if this was.

882
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 3: If we were not just Clarence, all of.

883
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 2: Them pagan sort of, I are all these with these

884
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 2: people are all printing money, you know, off their names.

885
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the next part here.

886
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 2: Some politics, Some really interesting stuff going on between Trump

887
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 2: and Ron DeSantis. The open war continues, not just in

888
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 2: terms of whether DeSantis's sanctimonious or not.

889
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 3: But now on policy.

890
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

891
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 2: Trump gave a very interesting interview to a new news

892
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 2: site called The Messenger, and he actually hit DeSantis, saying

893
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 2: that a six week abortion limit is quote too harsh.

894
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 2: So the fulls quote is what he said, he has

895
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 2: to do what he has to do. Trump said when

896
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: he was asked about Florida abortion rules. If you look

897
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 2: at what DeSantis did, a lot of people don't even

898
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 2: know if he knew what he was doing, but he

899
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 2: signed six weeks and many people within the pro life

900
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 2: movement feel that's too harsh.

901
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 3: Now, first of all, I.

902
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 2: Don't think if that's true, that they feel too harsh.

903
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 2: But what I think is even more interesting is that

904
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 2: when you're reading the transcript of this interview with Trump,

905
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: he has, you know, and I've said this before, rambling

906
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 2: answers on abortion. The answer that he gave here in

907
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 2: print is even more crazy. So he asked him about

908
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 2: the messenger is asking him about late term abortions. But

909
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 2: he both has to brag and also bring himself back

910
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 2: to the exceptions.

911
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:06,280
Speaker 3: That's perfect.

912
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: In this answer, he says, they've been trying to get

913
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,760
Speaker 2: rid of Row. I was able to do it. Nobody

914
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 2: else could have done that, but me and I was

915
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 2: able to do it do it by nominating three justices.

916
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 2: What it did, more than anything is give us tremendous

917
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 2: power of negotiation, which we didn't have the pro life

918
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: movement the tremendous power of negotiation. Now the pro life

919
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 2: movement has to negotiate a deal that's acceptable for them.

920
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: So then they ask him about whether the six week

921
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 2: ban is acceptable. He says, no, I think that's too harsh.

922
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: Then he says, well, what do you think? Is it

923
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: too harsh for you?

924
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 3: Quote?

925
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 2: I am looking at all alternatives. I'm looking at many alternatives.

926
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: But I was able to get us to the table.

927
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 2: That's the most important thing that ever happened for the

928
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 2: pro life movement. Would you sign a six week abortion

929
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 2: ban or not? Quote, I am looking at all options.

930
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 2: Sounds like a man who doesn't know what he thinks.

931
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 1: He knows what he thinks, he knows he doesn't want

932
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 1: to talk a six week abortion ban with a ten

933
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 1: foot point.

934
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 3: We know what he thinks. Yeah, we also know that.

935
00:43:58,000 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 2: You know, at the very least, it shows that he

936
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: is not a police idiot whenever it comes to abortion.

937
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 2: But just to show everybody the quandary that Trump has

938
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 2: now found himself in, put this up there on the screen.

939
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 3: The Susan B.

940
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 2: Anthony's List and other anti I guess pro life groups

941
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 2: whichever terminology you want blasts Trump over federal ban comments

942
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 2: because Trump basically said he wouldn't sign a federal abortion ban.

943
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 3: The Susan B.

944
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 2: Anthony Group actually put out a statement responding to the

945
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 2: Trump campaign where they said it was unacceptable and that

946
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,399
Speaker 2: they would not support any White House candidate who did

947
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: not support a minimum ban of a fifteen week federal

948
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,919
Speaker 2: abortion ban. They say the Supreme Court made its clear

949
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 2: decision it was returning the issue to the people, and

950
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 2: the group said that holding to a position it exclusively

951
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 2: is up to the states is an abdication of responsibility

952
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: by anyone who is elected to elected to federal office.

953
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 2: And you know, here's the thing with the Susan B.

954
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: Anthony Group and all them, at least you can command them,

955
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: is their honest. They're very open about what they want,

956
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 2: have a group, they have an agenda. They know it's unpopular,

957
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 2: but they don't care. They want to see it and acted,

958
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 2: and they have litmus tests. The thing is is that

959
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:10,800
Speaker 2: they are playing a very powerful role in the GOP

960
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 2: primary because it's not just Trump that they're going after.

961
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 2: They're basically setting the stage for Mike Pence. This just

962
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 2: happened two days ago, which is why I wanted to

963
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 2: note it put it up there on the screen. They

964
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 2: also are blasting Nikki Haley for not saying that she

965
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 2: would support a federal abortion band, because she gave an

966
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 2: interview to Face the Nation where she said, quote, it

967
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 2: is not realistic to have quote advanced gestational limits on

968
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 2: abortion at the federal level. The pro life groups, as

969
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,399
Speaker 2: Susan B. Anthony's List said, when Nikki Haley talks about

970
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 2: national consases, we are in agreement. She says the seventy

971
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 2: two percent of American support abortions at least by fifteen weeks,

972
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 2: just so everyone knows that polling has changed.

973
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 3: It did previously say that.

974
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 2: But they say that the pro Lacke movement must have

975
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,279
Speaker 2: a nominee who will we be boldly advocate for this

976
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: consensus and as president, will work tirelessly to gather the

977
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 2: votes necessary in Congress. So they're making it basically fifteen

978
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,879
Speaker 2: weeks or bust. And I mean, look, Crystal, when you're

979
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 2: looking at that, they're not doing. They're just wielding their

980
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 2: power that they know that they have. They have millions

981
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: of people who belong to their group. But when you

982
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 2: have none of the federal candidates basically except for Mike Pence,

983
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: who is publicly signed on, then you're in a real quandary.

984
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 2: And also it's great for Pence, but it also shows

985
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 2: you that DeSantis in many ways is running to the

986
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 2: right of Donald Trump. And this is why, Yeah, it

987
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 2: is scrambling so many of the brains of the conservative

988
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:38,240
Speaker 2: commentariat and even of the liberal ones, because you'll Seeantis

989
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 2: or Trump attacks DeSantis on social Security saying he wants

990
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 2: to cut sole security and on abortion, and so then

991
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,959
Speaker 2: I see conservative commentators I think I saw like Matt

992
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 2: Wallace or whatever being like, well, Trump was attacking DeSantis

993
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,799
Speaker 2: from the left, and I'm just like, yeah, but you know,

994
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 2: his ideological inconsistency and quote unquote moderation is kind of

995
00:46:58,960 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 2: why he.

996
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 3: Won in two thousand sixteen.

997
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 2: And also the quote very conservative voters that people always

998
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 2: like to look at. Those people are already for DeSantis anyways,

999
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 2: He's pulling very high with them. Those are the classic

1000
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:16,720
Speaker 2: GOP voter, small business owner who will vote for anyone

1001
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 2: with an R next to their name. They love Romney,

1002
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 2: they love Paul Ryan, of course they love DeSantis. Guess

1003
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 2: what though, as Romney found out, you can't win the presidency.

1004
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 2: With those people, it's really only forty something percent of

1005
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 2: the country who will basically vote are no matter what,

1006
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: So you have got to win at least a significant

1007
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 2: larger portion those people are not very conservative. So running

1008
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 2: from the left at least in a general election, and

1009
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 2: when I say left, I mean really more centrist, that

1010
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 2: is smart politically, and it also shows you why Trump

1011
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 2: actually could be more electable than Ron de Santis in

1012
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 2: many ways.

1013
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's the part that's really interesting is

1014
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: DeSantis pitches himself. Part of his pitch is like he's

1015
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: the more electable candidate. But when you stay count these

1016
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 1: you know, extreme positions on abortion, and you also stay

1017
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: out a position that is enough a lot of American

1018
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: people on social Security and medicare based on his previous comments, Yeah,

1019
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 1: that makes that that's going to put a hit on

1020
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 1: your electability piece. I mean, the parts that's interesting to

1021
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 1: me about the pro life movement and you know their

1022
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 1: reaction to Trump, their reaction Nikki Haley, et cetera is

1023
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:27,319
Speaker 1: Trump can get away with these things more than other

1024
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 1: candidates can right for and this is why Ron DeSantis,

1025
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 1: in like the dead of night, felt compelled to sign

1026
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: this six week abortion ban. Even though he's not an idiot,

1027
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: he knows this is a problem for him in a

1028
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: general election. He knows is wildly unpopular with the overwhelming

1029
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 1: majority of the American people. But you got a divide

1030
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 1: between the general election audience and the primary audience and

1031
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 1: groups that are very organized and very powerful like Susan B.

1032
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 4: Anthony List.

1033
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,359
Speaker 1: And so that's why he signed that ban, because he's

1034
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 1: placing also this big bet on Iowa, and these groups

1035
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 1: are disproposed even more disproportionately empower in the state of Iowa.

1036
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: So where Trump Trump staked out this more trying to

1037
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 1: sound like a moderate position on abortion. He's been singing

1038
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 1: this tune for a while. And guess what, his polls

1039
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: are really high. They just keep going up. DeSantis probably

1040
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: couldn't weather the storm in the same way.

1041
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 4: And here's the other thing. DeSantis is trying.

1042
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: To appeal to an ideologically consistently conservative group that Trump

1043
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 1: frankly doesn't really need in order to win.

1044
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 4: I mean, Trump's strength is with non.

1045
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 1: College educated voters who you know, have been with him

1046
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 1: the whole time, where it's more of a visceral appeal,

1047
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 1: and he's he's got those folks wherever he stands on abortion.

1048
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 1: So DeSantis is more vulnerable on these issues because of

1049
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 1: the coalition that he is trying to stitch together. And

1050
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 1: I think all the other candidates too. And it's just,

1051
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 1: you know, you see this in politics all the time.

1052
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 1: There are just some candidates who have the charisma and

1053
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 1: skill to pull off things that other candidates can't. And

1054
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is one of those people who can get

1055
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 1: away with things that other people just can't get away with.

1056
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 1: And I think that is laid bare by what's going

1057
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: on with abortion right now.

1058
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 3: Perfectly said.

1059
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 2: You know, DeSantis is held to the same standards as

1060
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,720
Speaker 2: a normal politician, and Trump is just held to whatever

1061
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 2: the hell standards people have decided to hold Trump.

1062
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 3: That's fair, but it is what it is. Life is

1063
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 3: not fair.

1064
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 2: But at the same time, though DeSantis is playing his

1065
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 2: hand the best that he possibly can. He had a

1066
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 2: great answer yesterday when he was asked about stop the

1067
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 2: Steal at a press conference in the state of Florida.

1068
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: It seems like he's got a pretty good pat answer

1069
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:37,359
Speaker 2: down for the campaign trail.

1070
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 3: Here's what he had to say.

1071
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 1: You said to her in events in Iowa, ok Tabika

1072
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 1: that the GP needs to.

1073
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 3: Reject a culture of losing. Do you acknowledge that Trump

1074
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 3: lost and there wasn't all this.

1075
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 5: Straw that he talks about. Well, I look at the

1076
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 5: last however many elections cycles. Twenty eighteen, we lost the House,

1077
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 5: we lost the Senate. Twenty twenty, Biden becomes president or no,

1078
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 5: she's we lost a cent in twenty twenty. Biden becomes

1079
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 5: president and it's not a huge amount of damage. Very

1080
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 5: unpopular in twenty twenty two, and we were supposed to

1081
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 5: have this big red wave and other than like Florida

1082
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 5: and Iowa, I didn't see a red wave across this country.

1083
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 5: And so I think the party has developed a culture

1084
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 5: of losing. I think that there's not accountability, and I

1085
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 5: think in Florida we really showed what it takes to

1086
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:31,280
Speaker 5: not just win, win big, and then deliver big. And ultimately,

1087
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 5: when you're doing all this, what results are you producing

1088
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 5: for people? That's really what matters. You can sit there

1089
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 5: and talk about cable news, social media, all these other

1090
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 5: things that people are fixated on, and for me, it's like, Okay,

1091
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 5: what's that true? North, you obviously got to win, otherwise

1092
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 5: you don't get a ticket to the dance. But once

1093
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:53,320
Speaker 5: you do that, how are you going to be able

1094
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 5: to actually bring about big change to make people's lives

1095
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 5: better next?

1096
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 2: I think it's a great answer, and I do wish

1097
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 2: we lived in a place where, at least in a primary,

1098
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 2: where results do matter for people in general election, I

1099
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 2: do think it matters.

1100
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,439
Speaker 3: But whenever it comes to GOP.

1101
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 2: Primary, well, current polls, I guess speak for themselves.

1102
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 3: Put this up on the screen.

1103
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 2: I once again I wish that Desantas's answer would resonate.

1104
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 2: And yet Trump is actually up over last month to

1105
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 2: fifty five percent in the Republican primary. DeSantis at a

1106
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 2: whopping seventeen percent, roughly around where RFK Junior is underperforming,

1107
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 2: actually underperforming in some polls, or RFK Junior is on

1108
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 2: the Democratic side, Mike Pence form and vice president actually

1109
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 2: polling under where Mary Anne Williamson is in the Democratic primary,

1110
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 2: He's at six percent, Nikki Haley's at four, Viake Ramaswami

1111
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 2: and for Tim Scott at two, Asa Hutchinson at one.

1112
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 2: Larry Hillolder, I didn't know Larry Elder was in the race.

1113
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 3: Good for him, I knew that. I kind of forgot.

1114
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:55,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to I have a soft spot for Lario,

1115
00:52:55,920 --> 00:53:00,800
Speaker 2: do you I have anyway? So any what can we

1116
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 2: say from this? Well, you know, voters just love Trump.

1117
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 1: I have a little bit of a different take on

1118
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:07,719
Speaker 1: the DeSantis answer. I thought it was fine for that

1119
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 1: moment whatever, when you're not going to face a follow

1120
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 1: up and you can just deliver your line and move on.

1121
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 1: But it does, it does put a little bit of

1122
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 1: blood in the water because every reporter is going to

1123
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 1: watch that answer and note that he dodged right, and

1124
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 1: now every time he's gonna get because he didn't come down,

1125
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 1: he didn't say what he thought about twenty twenty.

1126
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 4: It was a clear dodge.

1127
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,240
Speaker 1: And so if you don't think anytime that a reporter

1128
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:31,799
Speaker 1: has a chance to try to drill down and ask

1129
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 1: him and push him and try to get him, that

1130
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 1: is going to happen time and time again. And so again,

1131
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 1: it's one thing when you are in that setting and

1132
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 1: he knows he can just ignore if there's a follow

1133
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 1: up and just move on to the next question and

1134
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: just deliver as answer with no pushback, that's one thing.

1135
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,359
Speaker 4: But if he submits, you know.

1136
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,920
Speaker 1: Subjects himself to any sort of extended to sit down interview,

1137
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 1: with a real journalist. They're going to push and you're

1138
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: not going to be able to get away with that

1139
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 1: pat answer. Or if they do end up, you know,

1140
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 1: if he does end up on a debate stage, which

1141
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 1: I think the Republican Party is planning on holding debates,

1142
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if Donald Trump is going to participate

1143
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 1: in them, but those moderators are going to push all

1144
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:09,799
Speaker 1: those candidates on.

1145
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 4: That as well. So I read it a little bit

1146
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 4: differently than you did.

1147
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: Here's the reason why I'm reading it politically. That's the

1148
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 2: best you can do, because what are you going to do?

1149
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 2: Most people who are Republicans believe the election was stolen,

1150
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 2: So you can't say, no, the election was not stolen.

1151
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,399
Speaker 2: So what do you do? We have a culture of losing. Well,

1152
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 2: that reads a little bit differently. I don't even disagree

1153
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 2: with you. Look empirically, obviously, what does he need to do?

1154
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 2: Like the election wasn't stolen and I'm a winner, I'm

1155
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 2: a real winner, unlike you.

1156
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 3: True.

1157
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great answer, but you directionally have to

1158
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 2: be able to get there. And also again in the

1159
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: very unlikely scenario but still possible scenario where he's able

1160
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 2: to beat Trump, the best way possible is really what

1161
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 2: I think he's doing right now. He says we need

1162
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 2: to reject a culture of losing, and he's doing the

1163
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:52,400
Speaker 2: Obama strategy. I just read this morning fifty state legislators

1164
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire came out and endorsed Ron DeSantis. That's

1165
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 2: huge and two of them actually endorsed Trump only nineteen

1166
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 2: days ago, So not sure what happened with that.

1167
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 3: He's clearly doing the early straight strategy.

1168
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 2: He can go in, spend time on the ground, roll

1169
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 2: up and give people permission to vote for him. Iowa

1170
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: to New Hampshire, create a media narrative, and have a

1171
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 2: fighting chance on Super Tuesday. Do I think it's going

1172
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 2: to happen. No, I think Trump is going to win

1173
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 2: New Hampshire. I think New Hampshire loves Trump, they have

1174
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: literally since twenty sixteen. Certainly possible, though same with Iowa

1175
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 2: is a little bit more. If he Super Tuesday, I

1176
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: just really see no chance. But once again, you know

1177
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 2: it's you said yesterday, this might be your only shot. Yeah,

1178
00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 2: he's a forty four year old man. You know what's

1179
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 2: the worst case he loses? And then what he's a

1180
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 2: multi millionaire losing Florida.

1181
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 3: It's not a bad life.

1182
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 4: You can go to that lobby of earlier. He's lots

1183
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 4: of connections.

1184
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:47,399
Speaker 2: He will be fine for the rest of his Life's

1185
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 2: a young man, he has a wife, he's got small kids.

1186
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 2: Like you know, yeah, maybe you should shoot your shot. Personally,

1187
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 2: I would just sail off from the sunset.

1188
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 4: I guess on that answer, I agree with you. It's

1189
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 4: the best he can do. Yeah, it's the best you

1190
00:55:58,120 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 4: can do.

1191
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 1: To me, it's just underscore that he's an impossible bind

1192
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 1: because part of the base, part of the coalition that

1193
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 1: he wants to stitch together, wants to hear him say

1194
00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 1: it was rigged, it was stolen Trump one. The other

1195
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 1: part wants to hear him say this is fake news.

1196
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 1: Obviously Joe Biden won We you know, have a culture

1197
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:17,840
Speaker 1: of losing.

1198
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 4: We need to get behind a winner.

1199
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 1: And so he's trying to split the difference between those

1200
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:25,439
Speaker 1: two things and just trying not to say anything. And again,

1201
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 1: you can get away with it in you know, one

1202
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 1: scripted pat answer, but if you get any pushback or

1203
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 1: follow up, it kind of falls apart. So so it

1204
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,839
Speaker 1: just to me again, it illustrates he's doing perhaps the

1205
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 1: best he can. Given the landscape within the Republican primary,

1206
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 1: it is an impossible situation and an impossible needle to

1207
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 1: try to thread. O.

1208
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 3: I think that's why I don't think it will work out. Yeah. Right,

1209
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,719
Speaker 3: you're in agreement that play the best hand he can.

1210
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 3: Sometimes it's not always the best.

1211
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then you hope like fate is gonna hand you,

1212
00:56:58,000 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 1: you know, hand to something you can work with.

1213
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you never know.

1214
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:08,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, history can roll, always rolls its dice. Oh my gosh,

1215
00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 2: this is such a hilarious story. Flagged by Matt Brunegg.

1216
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:15,719
Speaker 2: Let's run it up there on the screen. So The

1217
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 2: New York Times wrote this incredible nonsense story about quote

1218
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 2: why some companies are saying diversity and belonging instead of

1219
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:28,320
Speaker 2: diversity and inclusion. He says, incredible stuff. Businesses are finding

1220
00:57:28,320 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 2: out the DEI consultants they hire are running programs that

1221
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 2: create even more identity based hostility, and are responding by

1222
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 2: hiring other DEI consultants who market themselves as not doing that.

1223
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:44,439
Speaker 3: As he says, quote, all of this is fake. Now.

1224
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 2: The reason why this is hilarious is that you basically

1225
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 2: have the new religion of DEI inside of every Fortune

1226
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 2: five hundred company in America and have now basically for

1227
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: the last couple of years, especially ramping up after the

1228
00:57:58,720 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 2: George Floyd protest.

1229
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 3: People thought that they were doing the right thing.

1230
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: They said, Oh, we're going to eliminate racism by hiring

1231
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 2: D and I consultants. However, all evidence that we currently

1232
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 2: have crystal all evidence, as evidenced by this New York

1233
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 2: Times article, is that saying to quote diversity and inclusion

1234
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 2: and emphasizing the place of race quote unquote implicit bias

1235
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 2: quote quote you know, quote unquote like microaggressions or macroaggressions

1236
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 2: in some cases are actually increasing hostility in the workplace

1237
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 2: racist thoughts and are having the opposite intended effect now

1238
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:41,880
Speaker 2: and also, do any of these people work.

1239
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 3: I have no idea why.

1240
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 2: Aerospace engineers are subjected to raise your hand whenever you

1241
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 2: had a racist thought literally at work.

1242
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 3: Sounds like something you should do on your own time.

1243
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 2: Now, what's fascinating to me is that the corporations are

1244
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 2: beginning to wake up to this.

1245
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 3: I personally thought that they would never.

1246
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 2: Move on, but they're doing it in the best way possible,

1247
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 2: moving from diversity and inclusion to diversity and belonging, ditching

1248
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 2: some implicit bias training to still spend the same amount

1249
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 2: of money on quote diversity, but hiring somebody whose recommendation

1250
00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 2: is stopped doing the previous training and is reverting back

1251
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 2: to do nothing. So in effect, this has all become

1252
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 2: a giant money laundering scheme. Matt Tayib had that great

1253
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 2: piece I think it was two years ago about what

1254
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:32,960
Speaker 2: was there white fragility, the Broadway robins, some of these

1255
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 2: ladies who are out there making multi Ibraheim Kendy, making

1256
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 2: millions of dollars, charging these places to give them lectures

1257
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 2: and to teach their babies anti racism and all this stuff,

1258
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 2: and instead it's actually making people not only more racist,

1259
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:50,080
Speaker 2: is actually no evidence A it's not changing anything on racism.

1260
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 3: So congratulations and.

1261
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:54,280
Speaker 2: Be like they are basically just bilking fortune five hundred

1262
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 2: companies to check a box when they can go to

1263
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 2: Wall Street and say, see, we have all of our

1264
00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: employees going undergoing diversity inclusion, and meanwhile you have employees.

1265
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:04,680
Speaker 2: I can't tell you the amount of people I know

1266
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 2: who are subjected to these things, who it enrages them

1267
01:00:08,680 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 2: to their core. A. They're being taken away from whatever

1268
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,400
Speaker 2: that's supposed to be doing, and b they're like I don't.

1269
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 2: They're like, I don't even agree with this, and you're

1270
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 2: basically shoving this down my throat and you're making me

1271
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 2: angrier about this problem which I didn't even think was

1272
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 2: a problem in the first place.

1273
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 1: The research has long been in that if you actually

1274
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:30,480
Speaker 1: care about combating racism, which I do, this diversity and

1275
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 1: inclusion consultant grift complex is fake.

1276
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 4: It doesn't work.

1277
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 1: If anything, it makes things worse, according to a bunch

1278
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 1: of you know, data that they have in the New

1279
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 1: York Times, But you gotta love that. The solution to

1280
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 1: that is like, well, let's hire a different class of

1281
01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 1: telecrifters who are going to pretend to you know, so

1282
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 1: we can still have our virtue signaling box checking exercise

1283
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:55,520
Speaker 1: that we can you know, put on our website or

1284
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 1: whatever to show how wonderful and how virtuous we are,

1285
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 1: even though we have changed none of our internal structures

1286
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 1: to actually deal with like the root causes of this problem.

1287
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:06,480
Speaker 1: I mean, you could be spending this money on giving

1288
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,720
Speaker 1: people bonuses and races of life better.

1289
01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 2: Everybody you're raised, especially the most working class people at

1290
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 2: your company. Take all of that money, give it as

1291
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:19,080
Speaker 2: a bonus to all of your employees coact and the.

1292
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 3: Portion of them more minorities will now do better. Congratulations.

1293
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 1: You know, there were a couple of things that we're

1294
01:01:23,480 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 1: mentioning here that I was like, oh, you know what,

1295
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: that actually is a better idea. So, for example, one

1296
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 1: company was going to open a new location or headquarters

1297
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 1: in Denver, which is so overwhelmingly white. They're like, let's

1298
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: go to Atlanta and that'll just like naturally increase, you know,

1299
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 1: help us attract graduates. There's more diversity in the city

1300
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:41,680
Speaker 1: of Atlanta. I was like, okay, well, that's like actually

1301
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 1: a thing that makes some kind of sense.

1302
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 4: But hiring a different group.

1303
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 1: Of fake racist, you know, racism consultants to fix the

1304
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 1: problems that the other group of grifter racism consultants created,

1305
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:58,479
Speaker 1: this is just total insanity. And the part of about

1306
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 1: the New York Times article that was funny to me was,

1307
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 1: you know, they use these anecdotes of they very credulously

1308
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 1: report on the new class of consultants that Okay, this

1309
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:08,880
Speaker 1: is really.

1310
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 4: Going to be the solution. Now they've got it. Now

1311
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 4: they've really got the solution.

1312
01:02:11,760 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 1: They interview like a couple of people were like, Yeah,

1313
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,360
Speaker 1: this was great, we loved it, and that substitutes in

1314
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 1: for any sort of like evidence or evidence based research

1315
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:22,200
Speaker 1: that the new class of consultants is going to be

1316
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 1: better than the health.

1317
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:24,920
Speaker 2: Correct you know, I will say that I had a

1318
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 2: massive flag go up whenever they say that the reason

1319
01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:30,040
Speaker 2: they switched from Denver to Atlanta, because I also know

1320
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 2: that Brett Governor Brian Kemp and the Georgia State Legislature

1321
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 2: are throwing money at companies that are coming to Georgia.

1322
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 2: So even that, I was like, are you really going

1323
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:40,440
Speaker 2: because you want more black engineering graduates? Or are you

1324
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 2: may be going because you're going to get more money

1325
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 2: by switching there. So I'm just personally suspected basically anything

1326
01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 2: that these people say. I think that the best way

1327
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 2: to do it is like what we just said, you know,

1328
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:54,520
Speaker 2: give people a raise and hire people based on merit,

1329
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,640
Speaker 2: and then when we have education, make it so you

1330
01:02:56,680 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 2: have merit based admissions so that everybody knows that whoever

1331
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 2: is there is there, regardless of whatever you know, is

1332
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,160
Speaker 2: there because they are the best person for the job.

1333
01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:07,840
Speaker 2: That's how we hire here, That's how most people should

1334
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,959
Speaker 2: hire and in general, like spending your time.

1335
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 3: Your time is the most precious asset that you have.

1336
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 2: When you ask people why they want money, it's because

1337
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 2: they want to be able to control their time. So

1338
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:22,280
Speaker 2: involuntarily subjecting people to things that don't work. And when

1339
01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 2: we're saying this, I'm not talking, you know, out of nothing.

1340
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:26,960
Speaker 2: Put this up there on the screen. This is just

1341
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:31,120
Speaker 2: like one of a slew from Scientific American the problem

1342
01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 2: with implicit bias training and an insane amount of evidence

1343
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:40,400
Speaker 2: based research to show that implicit bias training has either

1344
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:44,040
Speaker 2: no effect or the opposite effect intended when subjected to

1345
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 2: tens of thousands of people who have been forced now

1346
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:49,880
Speaker 2: to go through these programs, so it has not.

1347
01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 3: Had the intended effect.

1348
01:03:51,680 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 2: It is a societal problem that apparently we're trying to

1349
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 2: solve through like some corporation.

1350
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 3: It's not Microsoft. Rating is Microsoft's.

1351
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 2: Microsoft's job is to make Our job is to make

1352
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 2: sure that they pay people enough money and pay their

1353
01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:05,760
Speaker 2: taxes while they're doing so.

1354
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 3: The rest of.

1355
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:09,560
Speaker 2: This this leave it to us, Leave it to the government,

1356
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:12,600
Speaker 2: Leave it to the news, Leave it to churches or

1357
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 2: bowling leagues or you know, any of these places. Leave

1358
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:17,840
Speaker 2: it to your friend group where you can sit and

1359
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 2: talk and be like, hey, what's going on with this?

1360
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 2: George Floyd the thing man be like, yeah, well I

1361
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 2: kind of disagree. What's going on in the news.

1362
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 3: I hadn't thought about that before.

1363
01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 2: And the actually I was listening to the show and

1364
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 2: they said this, and I read this piece and what

1365
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:30,919
Speaker 2: a national review. But I read this piece in the Nation.

1366
01:04:31,080 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 2: You sit down, you talk. That's called society. This is

1367
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:36,480
Speaker 2: not the way that these problems are supposed to be worked.

1368
01:04:36,560 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, you're responsible for your corporate culture, and

1369
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 1: lord knows there is a lot of like sex and

1370
01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 1: race and religion based discrimination that still exists within these

1371
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 1: companies that they are wholly responsible for rooting out. But

1372
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:50,040
Speaker 1: the idea that you're going to solve a deeply entrenched

1373
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 1: problem like racism at the corporate training level is farcical.

1374
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 3: That's what I'm getting to.

1375
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 1: And when you you know, we know what has worked

1376
01:04:57,040 --> 01:04:59,919
Speaker 1: over time in terms of lifting closing the wealth gap,

1377
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 1: closing the wage gap, especially among Black Americans who have

1378
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 1: historically been treated as this horrifically abused underclass. And it

1379
01:05:07,920 --> 01:05:11,560
Speaker 1: has been universal programs that have lifted the minimum wage

1380
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 1: for all people that have helped improve the plate of

1381
01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:17,760
Speaker 1: all working class people. Why because in a lot of times,

1382
01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 1: race is a proxy for class in America. So when

1383
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:23,760
Speaker 1: you focus on lifting up, you know, the bottom of society,

1384
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 1: this is disproportionately impactful for disenfranchised and marginalized groups. That

1385
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 1: work has to happen at the nationwide level, It has

1386
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 1: to happen at the government level. It is not going

1387
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: to be solved by Robin DiAngelo getting paid hundreds of

1388
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 1: thousands and millions of dollars for some bullshit corporate training

1389
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 1: that doesn't even work and probably makes things worse.

1390
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:43,200
Speaker 2: So you're forgetting though that it makes people feel better

1391
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:45,800
Speaker 2: whenever they buy a book called anti Racist Baby.

1392
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:47,960
Speaker 3: That's what we're always forgetting.

1393
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:51,040
Speaker 2: Okay, let's go to the final part here about the

1394
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 2: Durham investigation. This came out a little bit later in

1395
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:56,640
Speaker 2: the day. I had the time to read as much

1396
01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:59,160
Speaker 2: as I could. This thing is three hundred pages, so

1397
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:01,480
Speaker 2: I read the executive and some of the key sections,

1398
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 2: and we pulled out what we thought were the most

1399
01:06:03,840 --> 01:06:06,919
Speaker 2: important takeaways from the Durham Report. For those who don't remember,

1400
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:11,320
Speaker 2: the Durham Report was the report to oversee the Muller Report,

1401
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:15,320
Speaker 2: and which was then in response to the crossfire hurricane investigation,

1402
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:19,280
Speaker 2: investigate the investigator, investigating the investigators who are the investigators

1403
01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:21,680
Speaker 2: of the president. And I know that this can just

1404
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 2: seem absolutely maddening. Let's just start with the very basics

1405
01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:29,960
Speaker 2: of it all comes back to Russiagate. What was Russiagate

1406
01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 2: has now become an all encompassing term. I think at

1407
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:35,880
Speaker 2: its core, it was this Donald Trump and the Trump campaign.

1408
01:06:36,120 --> 01:06:39,640
Speaker 2: Members of the Trump campaign conspired with the Russian government,

1409
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:44,600
Speaker 2: both through monetary and political purposes, to damage the Hillary

1410
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:48,520
Speaker 2: Clinton campaign. That included an allegation that they were helping

1411
01:06:48,520 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 2: coordinate WikiLeaks not true, that they were helping coordinate other

1412
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:56,120
Speaker 2: leaks not true. That they were helping coordinate Facebook ads

1413
01:06:56,160 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 2: to help sway the election also not true. But that

1414
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 2: was it at its core, and it had different sub elements,

1415
01:07:02,880 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 2: like the Steel dossier, like Alpha Bank, like all of

1416
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:10,320
Speaker 2: these other allegations that have since all been debuggd We

1417
01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 2: know now today that not one of those things happens

1418
01:07:12,720 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 2: to be true. But the investigation as to how said

1419
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,880
Speaker 2: investigation was even sparked by the FBI, how tens of

1420
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:22,680
Speaker 2: millions of dollars of taxpayer resources were spent by the FBI,

1421
01:07:22,760 --> 01:07:25,920
Speaker 2: the premier law enforcement organization, to investigate and run these

1422
01:07:25,960 --> 01:07:28,480
Speaker 2: things down. How the American people were subjected to the

1423
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:31,200
Speaker 2: story for what I would say three years, three straight

1424
01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,200
Speaker 2: years of NonStop news coverage. And it's one of the

1425
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:37,440
Speaker 2: biggest screw ups by media and also by law enforcement

1426
01:07:37,480 --> 01:07:41,320
Speaker 2: basically since Iraq WMD. As Matt Tayibi so eloquently wrote

1427
01:07:41,440 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 2: at the time, now, the roots of this investigation go very,

1428
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,720
Speaker 2: very deep, and that was arguably one of the biggest

1429
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:49,400
Speaker 2: stories from the Durham Report.

1430
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen, please.

1431
01:07:51,240 --> 01:07:54,240
Speaker 2: According to the report, the plan by Hillary Clinton and

1432
01:07:54,240 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 2: the Clinton campaign to hire a law firm to fund

1433
01:07:56,360 --> 01:07:58,880
Speaker 2: the Steele dossier and to shop it around town to

1434
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:01,920
Speaker 2: get media outlets to on it linking Trump to Russia

1435
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:06,280
Speaker 2: was briefed in August of twenty and sixteen by then

1436
01:08:06,440 --> 01:08:11,440
Speaker 2: CIA Director John Brennan to President Obama, Vice President Biden,

1437
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:16,600
Speaker 2: ag Loretta Lynch, and FBI Director Komy. Now, this particular

1438
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:19,240
Speaker 2: subplot of Russia Gate, for those of the uninitiated, is

1439
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 2: actually called Obamagate. Yes, this just shows you how long

1440
01:08:23,160 --> 01:08:26,679
Speaker 2: we've been covering this. So this goes to the initial

1441
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:30,519
Speaker 2: Trump allegation that President Obama, his lackeys in the White

1442
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: House and others were briefed on said dossier and did

1443
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:37,800
Speaker 2: their best to do two things. A to maintain knowledge

1444
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:41,360
Speaker 2: of the investigation, to make sure that the FBI actually

1445
01:08:41,479 --> 01:08:45,600
Speaker 2: launched an investigation into this. B they knew that it

1446
01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:48,280
Speaker 2: politically would have been beneficial to the Hillary Clinton campaign.

1447
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:51,599
Speaker 2: And then finally, C is that they did their best

1448
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 2: crystal at the time to maintain not only the investigation

1449
01:08:56,520 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 2: but also elements and other damaging information about the Trump

1450
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:04,040
Speaker 2: the incoming Trump administration. Why spread quote unquote spreading it

1451
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:07,719
Speaker 2: around government so enabling it to leak when the Trump

1452
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,160
Speaker 2: people came into office. I think that that is a

1453
01:09:10,200 --> 01:09:14,639
Speaker 2: tremendously significant and important point because it shows that guy

1454
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:17,679
Speaker 2: going back to the by going back to the Obama

1455
01:09:17,680 --> 01:09:20,640
Speaker 2: white House, and the involvement of the CIA director than

1456
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:25,400
Speaker 2: John Brennan, his eventual departure of the CIA to MSNBC,

1457
01:09:25,800 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 2: and also unquestionably a part of the leaks to the

1458
01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:33,240
Speaker 2: press around Russia Gate. He was intimately familiar with this

1459
01:09:33,360 --> 01:09:37,240
Speaker 2: plan from the very very beginning and very likely sparked

1460
01:09:37,240 --> 01:09:40,639
Speaker 2: some of the initial interests in this along with Clapper,

1461
01:09:40,800 --> 01:09:42,679
Speaker 2: who also was then working for CNN.

1462
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 1: So part of what this report outlines, as reflected in

1463
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:49,040
Speaker 1: what we just had up on the screen, is that

1464
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:52,519
Speaker 1: there were separate allegations about both of these campaigns with

1465
01:09:52,560 --> 01:09:56,559
Speaker 1: regards to Russia. So there was the Steele dossier Russian

1466
01:09:56,920 --> 01:10:01,080
Speaker 1: collusion situation with Trump. That was one infirmed allegation that

1467
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:03,919
Speaker 1: was out there, and there was also an unconfirmed allegation

1468
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:06,800
Speaker 1: out there about Hillary Clinton that one of her foreign

1469
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,720
Speaker 1: policy advisors had come up with the plot which was

1470
01:10:09,760 --> 01:10:13,400
Speaker 1: approved by Hillary herself. Again, these were all allegations, unconfirmed,

1471
01:10:13,720 --> 01:10:16,439
Speaker 1: that they were going to vilify Donald Trump by stirring

1472
01:10:16,520 --> 01:10:20,120
Speaker 1: up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security services.

1473
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:24,360
Speaker 1: So both of these campaigns had potential sort of like

1474
01:10:24,439 --> 01:10:28,439
Speaker 1: Russian plots that had been alleged against them, And part

1475
01:10:28,439 --> 01:10:31,879
Speaker 1: of what the Durham Report concludes is that they handled

1476
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:36,719
Speaker 1: those two separate claims very differently. In the Clinton instance,

1477
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:39,960
Speaker 1: they basically dismissed it and they didn't launch a major

1478
01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:43,400
Speaker 1: investigation into it, and in the Trump instance, they did.

1479
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:47,400
Speaker 1: And what the Durham Report asserts is that some of

1480
01:10:47,439 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 1: the people who were involved in opening the crossfire Hurricane investigation,

1481
01:10:53,360 --> 01:10:55,400
Speaker 1: including Peter Strock and some of these other names that

1482
01:10:55,479 --> 01:10:58,519
Speaker 1: again go back years now that they had a bias

1483
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:01,799
Speaker 1: against Trump, and that was part of why they decided

1484
01:11:01,840 --> 01:11:04,920
Speaker 1: to take this Steele dossier, which we all know now

1485
01:11:05,240 --> 01:11:07,640
Speaker 1: you know almost all of it was bullshit, especially the

1486
01:11:07,680 --> 01:11:10,760
Speaker 1: most saalacious claims were complete nonsense. Decided to take this

1487
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:14,040
Speaker 1: uncorroborated report and use it as a basis to launch

1488
01:11:14,040 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 1: this investigation. So that was part of what was important

1489
01:11:16,640 --> 01:11:19,280
Speaker 1: to show here is that the two candidates were treated differently.

1490
01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:21,560
Speaker 4: And then one other piece.

1491
01:11:21,360 --> 01:11:23,240
Speaker 1: Just before you go onto some of the other revelations

1492
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 1: here that I think it's really important to keep in

1493
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:27,360
Speaker 1: mind as we're going through all of this and why

1494
01:11:27,400 --> 01:11:31,200
Speaker 1: this still matters, unfortunately so many years later, is this

1495
01:11:31,280 --> 01:11:32,200
Speaker 1: has screwed.

1496
01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:34,519
Speaker 4: Up our whole view of Russia.

1497
01:11:34,560 --> 01:11:37,040
Speaker 1: I mean, this is still reverberating in terms of the

1498
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:39,640
Speaker 1: Ukraine War and how we're approaching and how Americans are

1499
01:11:39,640 --> 01:11:41,479
Speaker 1: thinking about all of these things. I mean, it just

1500
01:11:41,920 --> 01:11:44,240
Speaker 1: never ends in terms of the impact that this all

1501
01:11:44,320 --> 01:11:47,439
Speaker 1: had on the American public. And if you're a faithful

1502
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:50,960
Speaker 1: MSNBC viewer, like if you heard the way we were

1503
01:11:50,960 --> 01:11:53,160
Speaker 1: talking about this and that this was all debunked. Your

1504
01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:55,240
Speaker 1: mind would be blown because you've never heard that on

1505
01:11:55,320 --> 01:11:59,360
Speaker 1: their airwaves, even though they spend more than any other

1506
01:11:59,400 --> 01:12:02,720
Speaker 1: network years and years and years building this sound and

1507
01:12:02,760 --> 01:12:05,599
Speaker 1: milking it for ratings night after night after night, led

1508
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:09,360
Speaker 1: by their top performer in talent, Rachel Maddow. So the

1509
01:12:09,439 --> 01:12:11,680
Speaker 1: other piece of this of why this still matters is,

1510
01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:15,960
Speaker 1: unlike I Rock WMD, which eventually the media all admitted like, ah,

1511
01:12:15,960 --> 01:12:17,800
Speaker 1: oops are bad, we got it wrong, and there's a

1512
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:21,400
Speaker 1: general public acceptance and acknowledgment of that, they are vast

1513
01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:25,760
Speaker 1: loss of mainstream media viewers and audience and readers who

1514
01:12:25,800 --> 01:12:30,120
Speaker 1: have no idea how wrong these outlets got things.

1515
01:12:30,439 --> 01:12:34,920
Speaker 2: Compare Obama's response to Crimea to Joe Biden's response to Ukraine,

1516
01:12:35,240 --> 01:12:36,000
Speaker 2: and I'm not.

1517
01:12:35,960 --> 01:12:38,320
Speaker 3: Saying those are one to one, but there is no

1518
01:12:38,439 --> 01:12:38,840
Speaker 3: way that.

1519
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:40,519
Speaker 2: Some of the madness going on in terms of US

1520
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:43,400
Speaker 2: support for Ukraine happens today without Russia Gate. It has

1521
01:12:43,720 --> 01:12:46,439
Speaker 2: massive And when the historians go back one hundred years

1522
01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 2: from now, it's like going back and looking at war

1523
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:51,559
Speaker 2: fever in nineteen twelve in Britain and in Germany, being like,

1524
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:54,840
Speaker 2: it's obvious something's about to go down, and at that

1525
01:12:54,920 --> 01:12:56,000
Speaker 2: time they didn't really know it.

1526
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:58,200
Speaker 3: It seemed normal. It was like in the air.

1527
01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 2: Well, I'm going to call it in the living through

1528
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:04,600
Speaker 2: the time that this unquestionably had a massive impact on

1529
01:13:04,800 --> 01:13:08,400
Speaker 2: US history, on the war in Ukraine and how the

1530
01:13:08,560 --> 01:13:10,320
Speaker 2: US public viewed Russia.

1531
01:13:10,439 --> 01:13:13,280
Speaker 3: Let's go to the next part here, This is very important.

1532
01:13:13,479 --> 01:13:17,600
Speaker 2: From the German investigation, they conclude that the Steele Dossier,

1533
01:13:17,960 --> 01:13:20,680
Speaker 2: the infamous quote pe tape claim which was in the

1534
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:25,080
Speaker 2: dossier was not only an obvious lie, but whose provenance

1535
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:31,240
Speaker 2: was nonsense and fabricated in its entirety by a Northern

1536
01:13:31,320 --> 01:13:36,640
Speaker 2: Virginia Democratic operative named Charles Dolan who had ties to

1537
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:42,360
Speaker 2: Russian businesses and lobbying organizations, who levied said ties by

1538
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:46,680
Speaker 2: planting it in the Steele dossier before then peddling it

1539
01:13:46,880 --> 01:13:51,040
Speaker 2: to media outlets before and after the Trump victory in

1540
01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:55,759
Speaker 2: twenty and sixteen, and then finally, actually probably most importantly

1541
01:13:55,800 --> 01:13:58,560
Speaker 2: from a national security perspective, put this up there on

1542
01:13:58,600 --> 01:14:03,160
Speaker 2: the screen, showed that the Steele Dossier was included in

1543
01:14:03,240 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 2: the illegal Carter page FISA warrant that the report shows

1544
01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:12,240
Speaker 2: the PISA applications included items from the unproven Steel dossier

1545
01:14:12,479 --> 01:14:15,639
Speaker 2: were included directly in said FIZA application, where they took

1546
01:14:15,840 --> 01:14:20,400
Speaker 2: unverified information pedled by the Clinton campaign and used it

1547
01:14:20,439 --> 01:14:23,920
Speaker 2: as a pretext to spy on an American citizen. So

1548
01:14:24,280 --> 01:14:26,760
Speaker 2: you put all this together and what you find is

1549
01:14:26,840 --> 01:14:28,560
Speaker 2: an incredibly damaging.

1550
01:14:28,160 --> 01:14:29,559
Speaker 3: Report for the FBI.

1551
01:14:29,640 --> 01:14:31,479
Speaker 2: I was actually a little bit miffed by the Durham

1552
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:35,960
Speaker 2: report because in his executive summary he damns the FBI.

1553
01:14:36,280 --> 01:14:38,879
Speaker 2: He says that they opened this investigation with no evidence

1554
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:42,160
Speaker 2: whatsoever that any of it was true. They spent so

1555
01:14:42,200 --> 01:14:44,879
Speaker 2: many resources and all the running down these bs claims,

1556
01:14:45,120 --> 01:14:47,800
Speaker 2: obviously for political purposes. But in it he doesn't have

1557
01:14:47,840 --> 01:14:52,160
Speaker 2: any recommendations for new procedures. In the summary, he just goes,

1558
01:14:52,280 --> 01:14:54,920
Speaker 2: I have no recommendations, just simply.

1559
01:14:54,560 --> 01:14:55,280
Speaker 3: Follow the law.

1560
01:14:55,320 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 2: I'm like, well, clearly the law is not working. Because

1561
01:14:58,439 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 2: Peter Struck is a hero. Andrew McCabe is on CNN

1562
01:15:03,200 --> 01:15:06,680
Speaker 2: who's literally fired for not doing his job properly. The

1563
01:15:06,720 --> 01:15:08,800
Speaker 2: other guy went to go work for Twitter and got

1564
01:15:08,840 --> 01:15:11,519
Speaker 2: fired by Elon to cover up because he was covering

1565
01:15:11,560 --> 01:15:15,719
Speaker 2: up his own Twitter files. Nonsense, Not what James Comey's

1566
01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:18,160
Speaker 2: a multimillionaire living here in northern Virginia.

1567
01:15:18,520 --> 01:15:20,040
Speaker 3: What's happening.

1568
01:15:20,280 --> 01:15:23,439
Speaker 2: Clearly, you can't just have law enforcement officials who don't

1569
01:15:23,479 --> 01:15:27,479
Speaker 2: properly enforce the law or do investigations correctly and suffer

1570
01:15:27,520 --> 01:15:28,280
Speaker 2: no consequences.

1571
01:15:28,360 --> 01:15:30,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like I'm losing my mind reading this report.

1572
01:15:30,680 --> 01:15:32,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean most of the prosecutions that there were

1573
01:15:32,760 --> 01:15:36,719
Speaker 1: three separate attempted prosecutions that came out of this, only

1574
01:15:36,760 --> 01:15:39,160
Speaker 1: one of them resulted in a conviction. The other two

1575
01:15:39,280 --> 01:15:42,040
Speaker 1: resulted in acquittals. So the prosecutions that came out of

1576
01:15:42,040 --> 01:15:44,880
Speaker 1: this ended up, you know, not going very far themselves.

1577
01:15:45,360 --> 01:15:50,519
Speaker 1: And I found that part to a little perplexing, frankly,

1578
01:15:50,640 --> 01:15:53,759
Speaker 1: because you have this whole report that lays.

1579
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:57,120
Speaker 4: Out you know, I think pages if anyone would have.

1580
01:15:57,080 --> 01:15:58,880
Speaker 1: To look at this and say, okay, this illustrates some

1581
01:15:59,000 --> 01:16:01,960
Speaker 1: real problems within the FBI, and it's like all right,

1582
01:16:02,040 --> 01:16:04,200
Speaker 1: so what do we do about? And see it's just like, yeah,

1583
01:16:04,320 --> 01:16:05,280
Speaker 1: just do better next time.

1584
01:16:05,320 --> 01:16:07,360
Speaker 2: It's like that's not gonna happening.

1585
01:16:07,520 --> 01:16:08,040
Speaker 3: Is broken?

1586
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 4: What is the root cause?

1587
01:16:10,280 --> 01:16:12,040
Speaker 1: Like, how do we get to this place? What's the

1588
01:16:12,160 --> 01:16:15,479
Speaker 1: root cause? How do you change that? And he had

1589
01:16:15,680 --> 01:16:18,360
Speaker 1: nothing for you on that front, So it is it

1590
01:16:18,439 --> 01:16:20,920
Speaker 1: was disappointing in that regard for sure, because what you

1591
01:16:20,920 --> 01:16:23,920
Speaker 1: would like to see is some sort of reform that's

1592
01:16:23,920 --> 01:16:26,439
Speaker 1: going to give people confidence that you know, the next

1593
01:16:26,479 --> 01:16:30,960
Speaker 1: time there's this big investigation, big incredibly politically charged investigation

1594
01:16:31,000 --> 01:16:32,920
Speaker 1: which the FBI has now bungled a few of these,

1595
01:16:33,960 --> 01:16:36,920
Speaker 1: that things are going to unfold differently, and instead it's

1596
01:16:36,960 --> 01:16:38,679
Speaker 1: just like, just do a little better.

1597
01:16:38,479 --> 01:16:40,479
Speaker 4: Next time, guys. We got confidence, so it's going to

1598
01:16:40,520 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 4: be all good.

1599
01:16:41,000 --> 01:16:42,680
Speaker 3: It's so dumb, let's go the next part.

1600
01:16:42,760 --> 01:16:46,320
Speaker 2: This is so funny, so ccen as Jake Tapper decided

1601
01:16:46,360 --> 01:16:50,320
Speaker 2: to just tell the basic conclusions that are quite obvious

1602
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:53,080
Speaker 2: from the Duram report that they are very damaging for

1603
01:16:53,120 --> 01:16:55,600
Speaker 2: the FBI and they do vindicate in part many of

1604
01:16:55,600 --> 01:16:59,880
Speaker 2: Trump's acusations against the law enforcement agency and CNN view

1605
01:17:00,160 --> 01:17:01,960
Speaker 2: are not so happy about it. Here's what he had

1606
01:17:02,000 --> 01:17:03,519
Speaker 2: to say, and we'll tell you about the reaction.

1607
01:17:03,960 --> 01:17:06,880
Speaker 6: President Trump appeared so confident of what Durham would find

1608
01:17:06,920 --> 01:17:10,280
Speaker 6: he openly pressured the special counsel to release his findings

1609
01:17:10,280 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 6: before the twenty twenty election. Regardless, the report is now here,

1610
01:17:13,960 --> 01:17:16,559
Speaker 6: it has dropped, and it might not have produced everything

1611
01:17:16,600 --> 01:17:20,320
Speaker 6: of what some Republicans hod for it is regardless devastating

1612
01:17:20,479 --> 01:17:24,240
Speaker 6: to the FBI, and to a degree it does exonerate

1613
01:17:24,280 --> 01:17:25,000
Speaker 6: Donald Trump.

1614
01:17:25,200 --> 01:17:28,000
Speaker 3: So the reaction here at Crystal is so funny.

1615
01:17:28,439 --> 01:17:31,559
Speaker 2: Media Matters absolutely losing it, they say, to be clear,

1616
01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:34,760
Speaker 2: this is not devastating for the FBI does not do

1617
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:38,400
Speaker 2: in any degree exonerate Donald Trump. What in the world

1618
01:17:38,479 --> 01:17:41,600
Speaker 2: are you talking about? They say, is misleading commentary. My

1619
01:17:41,680 --> 01:17:44,720
Speaker 2: personal favorite I just scrolled past is good God. They

1620
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:48,080
Speaker 2: are now pimping out Jake Tapper for MAGA viewers hashtag

1621
01:17:48,240 --> 01:17:51,559
Speaker 2: propaganda for ratings, just so people know it's not working

1622
01:17:51,600 --> 01:17:54,800
Speaker 2: if that's the case. Because Chris Wallace just lost in

1623
01:17:54,840 --> 01:17:58,920
Speaker 2: primetime to Newsmax that actually just came out yesterday. They

1624
01:17:58,920 --> 01:18:01,360
Speaker 2: got a total of three hundred thousand viewers.

1625
01:18:01,360 --> 01:18:03,120
Speaker 4: Matter how much they pay in that dude, yeah.

1626
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:06,439
Speaker 2: Exactly, probably ten million dollars a year to be last

1627
01:18:06,479 --> 01:18:10,320
Speaker 2: on the air to freaking Newsmax, which fairly existed five

1628
01:18:10,400 --> 01:18:10,800
Speaker 2: years ago.

1629
01:18:10,960 --> 01:18:13,320
Speaker 3: Humiliating, absolutely humiliating.

1630
01:18:13,400 --> 01:18:17,880
Speaker 2: But it just shows same problems with the freakout post

1631
01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:24,400
Speaker 2: CNN town Hall. They cannot handle any semblance of fairness

1632
01:18:24,800 --> 01:18:28,599
Speaker 2: whenever it comes to describing yeah, basic facts, Well.

1633
01:18:28,520 --> 01:18:30,519
Speaker 1: I think I think Ryan, because I watched a little

1634
01:18:30,560 --> 01:18:32,479
Speaker 1: of you and Ryan's coverage to this while I was

1635
01:18:32,720 --> 01:18:34,920
Speaker 1: on my honeymoon. I think Ryan pointed this out that

1636
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:37,120
Speaker 1: you know, something we talk about in independent media is

1637
01:18:37,120 --> 01:18:39,960
Speaker 1: this problem of audience capture, where you know, you start

1638
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:43,120
Speaker 1: feeding audience a certain narrative and then that attracts a

1639
01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:44,880
Speaker 1: certain audience and all they want to hear is this

1640
01:18:44,920 --> 01:18:47,200
Speaker 1: one certain narrative, and then if you veer off of

1641
01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:48,880
Speaker 1: that track, you lose a whole bunch of people. And

1642
01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:50,920
Speaker 1: so people don't veer off the track. They find reasons

1643
01:18:50,920 --> 01:18:54,240
Speaker 1: to stay on the track. Major problem in independent media.

1644
01:18:55,200 --> 01:18:59,360
Speaker 1: But it appears CNN has the same issue because they've

1645
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:02,559
Speaker 1: spent years cultivating a certain worldview and a certain audience.

1646
01:19:03,120 --> 01:19:06,639
Speaker 1: And so you know, in a sense, I you know,

1647
01:19:06,840 --> 01:19:09,479
Speaker 1: Tapper is saying things that are just accurate based on

1648
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:12,160
Speaker 1: what's reflected in the report, But you don't get to

1649
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:15,720
Speaker 1: avoid complicity for over years and years and years hiding

1650
01:19:15,960 --> 01:19:18,800
Speaker 1: any of the evidence that what was being spun in

1651
01:19:18,840 --> 01:19:21,080
Speaker 1: terms of rushigate was false. And so you can't be

1652
01:19:21,120 --> 01:19:23,400
Speaker 1: surprised then when there's a frecount, when you host a

1653
01:19:23,439 --> 01:19:25,360
Speaker 1: Trump town hall, you can't be surprised when there's a

1654
01:19:25,360 --> 01:19:27,839
Speaker 1: frecount when you just cover the contents of this report.

1655
01:19:28,400 --> 01:19:31,240
Speaker 1: If they are genuinely trying to, you know, cultivate a

1656
01:19:31,240 --> 01:19:34,920
Speaker 1: different audience, Yeah, it's going to be painful for a while.

1657
01:19:34,960 --> 01:19:37,040
Speaker 4: They're going to lose some of the people.

1658
01:19:36,720 --> 01:19:39,759
Speaker 1: That they have been bringing along with them for years

1659
01:19:39,800 --> 01:19:43,120
Speaker 1: because they haven't painted an accurate picture of the world

1660
01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:45,200
Speaker 1: for them. So then when you come in and puncture

1661
01:19:45,200 --> 01:19:47,240
Speaker 1: their bubble, they're going to say. You know, they're going

1662
01:19:47,320 --> 01:19:49,000
Speaker 1: to be confused, They're going to be upset, They're going

1663
01:19:49,040 --> 01:19:49,599
Speaker 1: to be enrage.

1664
01:19:49,600 --> 01:19:50,519
Speaker 4: There's no doubt about it.

1665
01:19:50,640 --> 01:19:53,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, what do we learn I guess from

1666
01:19:54,040 --> 01:19:58,599
Speaker 2: all this. I just think that you can see audience capture.

1667
01:19:59,000 --> 01:20:01,200
Speaker 2: But more importantly, the problem for them is they don't

1668
01:20:01,240 --> 01:20:03,040
Speaker 2: even care as much about their audience. They care more

1669
01:20:03,040 --> 01:20:05,160
Speaker 2: about pleasing each other. And you just know that it

1670
01:20:05,240 --> 01:20:08,920
Speaker 2: drives Jake Tapper insane to see criticism from media matter,

1671
01:20:09,000 --> 01:20:11,200
Speaker 2: you know, from people who they would consider social friends,

1672
01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:13,280
Speaker 2: allies in many respects.

1673
01:20:13,280 --> 01:20:14,519
Speaker 4: And I feel like Tapper is a little bit of

1674
01:20:14,560 --> 01:20:15,200
Speaker 4: a contrarian.

1675
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:16,160
Speaker 3: Yes and no.

1676
01:20:16,320 --> 01:20:17,040
Speaker 4: He likes to fight.

1677
01:20:17,320 --> 01:20:21,400
Speaker 3: He does. He's a dm W, he is a warrior, experience.

1678
01:20:22,000 --> 01:20:24,160
Speaker 1: He's he definitely one thing we can say for sure,

1679
01:20:24,439 --> 01:20:25,639
Speaker 1: every comment about this.

1680
01:20:25,840 --> 01:20:28,760
Speaker 2: He yeah, tweet this video at him, one hundred percent,

1681
01:20:28,760 --> 01:20:30,960
Speaker 2: will watch it. I guarantee you if I say one

1682
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:32,760
Speaker 2: negative word, I'll hear about it for the rest of

1683
01:20:32,760 --> 01:20:33,120
Speaker 2: my life.

1684
01:20:33,720 --> 01:20:36,720
Speaker 3: The problem that I think is that and this isn't

1685
01:20:36,720 --> 01:20:37,759
Speaker 3: about Tapper necessarily.

1686
01:20:37,800 --> 01:20:41,000
Speaker 2: This is really just CNN and the way that the

1687
01:20:41,080 --> 01:20:44,439
Speaker 2: internal response is look at the freak out from the

1688
01:20:44,479 --> 01:20:46,960
Speaker 2: town hall, and you can just guarantee that if you

1689
01:20:47,000 --> 01:20:50,880
Speaker 2: say something like this factual but potential to help Trump

1690
01:20:51,240 --> 01:20:53,680
Speaker 2: in any way, there's going to be a cringe on.

1691
01:20:53,640 --> 01:20:56,160
Speaker 3: The other local No, no, no, it didn't vindicate everything they said.

1692
01:20:56,360 --> 01:20:59,000
Speaker 2: That's not what he said. He said to a certain extent,

1693
01:20:59,280 --> 01:21:02,160
Speaker 2: he said, it's damaging for the FBI. The FBI is

1694
01:21:02,200 --> 01:21:04,439
Speaker 2: not We don't have to religiously pray to the FBI.

1695
01:21:04,800 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 2: It's just an organization. It's it's supposed to be neutral.

1696
01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:08,640
Speaker 3: It's not.

1697
01:21:08,840 --> 01:21:11,080
Speaker 4: Obviously, deeply it has a lot of problems. Y.

1698
01:21:11,160 --> 01:21:14,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's deeply problematic, and I think that there are

1699
01:21:14,160 --> 01:21:16,160
Speaker 2: a lot of reasons to be skeptical of it. What's

1700
01:21:16,200 --> 01:21:17,960
Speaker 2: wrong with that? Last time I checked, we were in

1701
01:21:18,000 --> 01:21:19,920
Speaker 2: the news business. We should be skeptical of anything law

1702
01:21:19,960 --> 01:21:22,479
Speaker 2: enforcement tells us. My default assumption is I don't believe

1703
01:21:22,520 --> 01:21:24,519
Speaker 2: you prove it, you know, show us the evidence, and

1704
01:21:24,600 --> 01:21:26,120
Speaker 2: that's why it should be. That's why it should be

1705
01:21:26,120 --> 01:21:28,320
Speaker 2: for a lot of people in media. But they religiously

1706
01:21:28,320 --> 01:21:31,160
Speaker 2: had to defend the FBI during the Russigate years, which

1707
01:21:31,200 --> 01:21:33,040
Speaker 2: now means that if they screw up, they.

1708
01:21:32,920 --> 01:21:35,280
Speaker 3: Can barely say they screwed up without pissing off a.

1709
01:21:35,240 --> 01:21:39,000
Speaker 1: Whole bunch of yeah, because they've made them into infallible heroes,

1710
01:21:39,240 --> 01:21:44,600
Speaker 1: which they never deserved. Yeah, all right, Sager, what are

1711
01:21:44,600 --> 01:21:45,000
Speaker 1: you looking at?

1712
01:21:45,160 --> 01:21:48,439
Speaker 2: Almost everyone in America can agree our economic system is

1713
01:21:48,479 --> 01:21:51,080
Speaker 2: not fair. Now where we diverge is how do we

1714
01:21:51,080 --> 01:21:53,960
Speaker 2: address that. The wolks have the quality of outcome where

1715
01:21:53,960 --> 01:21:56,479
Speaker 2: we basically predetermine what the outcome for the average person

1716
01:21:56,560 --> 01:21:59,439
Speaker 2: should be, and then we rig all racial groups to make.

1717
01:21:59,320 --> 01:22:00,680
Speaker 3: Sure that's where they end up.

1718
01:22:00,840 --> 01:22:04,759
Speaker 2: The democratic socialists have visions of egalitarian futures with limited

1719
01:22:04,760 --> 01:22:07,640
Speaker 2: equality of opportunity but a very very high floor for

1720
01:22:07,680 --> 01:22:11,160
Speaker 2: the average individual. The economic libertarians believe that the free

1721
01:22:11,200 --> 01:22:14,879
Speaker 2: market itself will produce fairness, so we should double down Eventually,

1722
01:22:14,880 --> 01:22:18,000
Speaker 2: that we'll get there emerging branch of conservative populists who

1723
01:22:18,080 --> 01:22:20,960
Speaker 2: want something in between each of those groups. In my opinion,

1724
01:22:20,960 --> 01:22:23,080
Speaker 2: they have a point, But I think it's always important

1725
01:22:23,120 --> 01:22:25,800
Speaker 2: to start with the data. What does it tell us

1726
01:22:26,120 --> 01:22:30,320
Speaker 2: where are we exactly before we even evaluate solutions. Luckily,

1727
01:22:30,400 --> 01:22:32,439
Speaker 2: my friend talman Joseph Smith over at the New York

1728
01:22:32,479 --> 01:22:35,640
Speaker 2: Times actually did a fantastic new analysis on an upcoming

1729
01:22:36,000 --> 01:22:38,320
Speaker 2: largest wealth transfer in American history?

1730
01:22:38,640 --> 01:22:41,160
Speaker 3: What does it reveal about our future politics?

1731
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:45,120
Speaker 2: Let's dive in first and foremost, what generational wealth transfer

1732
01:22:45,200 --> 01:22:48,200
Speaker 2: is he talking about? The basics are this, the boomers

1733
01:22:48,240 --> 01:22:51,599
Speaker 2: are getting fully into retirement age. With that comes the

1734
01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:55,400
Speaker 2: reality that many are beginning to die. With death comes inheritance.

1735
01:22:55,600 --> 01:22:58,639
Speaker 2: The boomers due to the enormous economic growth that occurred

1736
01:22:58,720 --> 01:22:59,640
Speaker 2: during their lifetimes.

1737
01:23:00,000 --> 01:23:02,080
Speaker 3: I've amassed trillions.

1738
01:23:01,479 --> 01:23:05,080
Speaker 2: Of dollars of wealth with relative ease given cheap tuition,

1739
01:23:05,479 --> 01:23:10,320
Speaker 2: cheap and abundant housing, ballooning wages, ballooning stock portfolios, and frankly,

1740
01:23:10,640 --> 01:23:13,759
Speaker 2: just the longevity of the effect of compound interest over time.

1741
01:23:14,040 --> 01:23:16,880
Speaker 2: A new analysis finds that the eighty four trillion dollars

1742
01:23:16,920 --> 01:23:20,000
Speaker 2: projected to be passed down from older Americans to their

1743
01:23:20,040 --> 01:23:23,919
Speaker 2: millennial and Gen X airs, roughly sixteen trillion will transfer

1744
01:23:23,920 --> 01:23:26,320
Speaker 2: it just in the next decade.

1745
01:23:26,479 --> 01:23:27,400
Speaker 3: As you can see.

1746
01:23:27,240 --> 01:23:29,600
Speaker 2: From the graphic before you, the amount of wealth that

1747
01:23:29,600 --> 01:23:34,280
Speaker 2: the boomers hold is astounding, some seventy eight trillion of

1748
01:23:34,280 --> 01:23:36,679
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty trillion in existence, with the rest

1749
01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:39,920
Speaker 2: divided up between Gen X, silent gen and millennials holding

1750
01:23:39,960 --> 01:23:43,240
Speaker 2: the smallest share despite making up a massive share of

1751
01:23:43,280 --> 01:23:45,920
Speaker 2: the population. But what is really crazy is not the

1752
01:23:46,000 --> 01:23:50,559
Speaker 2: generational differences, it's who within generations is about to inherit

1753
01:23:50,960 --> 01:23:54,320
Speaker 2: a whole lot of money. Currently in the United States,

1754
01:23:54,320 --> 01:23:56,760
Speaker 2: the wealthiest ten percent of households are the ones who

1755
01:23:56,760 --> 01:23:59,240
Speaker 2: will be giving and getting the vast majority of riches.

1756
01:23:59,400 --> 01:24:01,720
Speaker 2: As you can see before you for context, the top

1757
01:24:01,800 --> 01:24:04,640
Speaker 2: one percent of American households hold as much wealth as

1758
01:24:04,680 --> 01:24:08,400
Speaker 2: the bottom ninety percent combined. They will dictate alone most

1759
01:24:08,439 --> 01:24:11,639
Speaker 2: of the money flow. The bottom fifty, by contrast, account

1760
01:24:11,640 --> 01:24:14,840
Speaker 2: for only eight percent of all future transfers. What makes

1761
01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:17,760
Speaker 2: this particular situation and well transfer so unique is the

1762
01:24:17,880 --> 01:24:20,600
Speaker 2: nature of the wealth and how it was attained. The

1763
01:24:20,800 --> 01:24:26,440
Speaker 2: absolute vast majority is held in booming stock portfolios invested

1764
01:24:26,479 --> 01:24:30,360
Speaker 2: since early working years and in real estate values by

1765
01:24:30,439 --> 01:24:34,240
Speaker 2: longer held properties. The twin pillars of Boomer wealth thus

1766
01:24:34,560 --> 01:24:37,280
Speaker 2: not only represent a large portion of what will pass down,

1767
01:24:37,640 --> 01:24:40,080
Speaker 2: but the nature of how it will do so. And

1768
01:24:40,160 --> 01:24:42,759
Speaker 2: this is where the tax code comes in. As he notes,

1769
01:24:43,160 --> 01:24:45,800
Speaker 2: under US law, the top one point five percent of

1770
01:24:45,840 --> 01:24:49,200
Speaker 2: American household wealth will be allowed for transfer to errors

1771
01:24:49,439 --> 01:24:53,400
Speaker 2: with virtually very little inheritance tax or income tax. The

1772
01:24:53,439 --> 01:24:56,840
Speaker 2: IRS estimates it will capture about four point two four

1773
01:24:56,840 --> 01:25:00,479
Speaker 2: point two trillion dollars off of thirty trillion dollar in

1774
01:25:00,520 --> 01:25:04,040
Speaker 2: the transfer. That's a rate of approximately fourteen percent. So

1775
01:25:04,320 --> 01:25:07,000
Speaker 2: a massive wealth transfer is about to occur. Most of

1776
01:25:07,040 --> 01:25:09,120
Speaker 2: it will occur within the top ten percent of American

1777
01:25:09,120 --> 01:25:11,519
Speaker 2: household income, and especially amongst the top one percent.

1778
01:25:11,720 --> 01:25:13,840
Speaker 3: This has severe social ramifications.

1779
01:25:14,040 --> 01:25:17,200
Speaker 2: Number one changes the fundamental makeup of the relative rich

1780
01:25:17,200 --> 01:25:19,280
Speaker 2: in America. As I've mentioned here before, I've actually been

1781
01:25:19,280 --> 01:25:21,240
Speaker 2: on a bit of a Dave Ramsey kick. Actually read

1782
01:25:21,240 --> 01:25:23,479
Speaker 2: his most recent book, Baby Steps Millionaires, a great book.

1783
01:25:23,520 --> 01:25:26,200
Speaker 3: I recommend it. The book includes a large.

1784
01:25:25,960 --> 01:25:29,120
Speaker 2: White paper study on North American millionaires and found the

1785
01:25:29,200 --> 01:25:32,080
Speaker 2: vast majority did not inherit their wealth and got it

1786
01:25:32,160 --> 01:25:35,240
Speaker 2: by slow and steady planning over the years with retirement

1787
01:25:35,320 --> 01:25:38,519
Speaker 2: savings and paid off houses. That's actually an inspiring story.

1788
01:25:38,640 --> 01:25:41,519
Speaker 2: The relative middle class and financial discipline can leave one

1789
01:25:41,560 --> 01:25:44,559
Speaker 2: pretty well off through the laws of compound interests. And

1790
01:25:44,600 --> 01:25:47,599
Speaker 2: to be clear, that's still really good advice. Most people

1791
01:25:47,640 --> 01:25:49,720
Speaker 2: would be better off if they did listen to him.

1792
01:25:49,920 --> 01:25:52,679
Speaker 2: But the question arises what share of those people will

1793
01:25:52,680 --> 01:25:55,960
Speaker 2: be rich in the future. Because the children of said

1794
01:25:56,000 --> 01:25:59,759
Speaker 2: baby steps millionaires can inherit real estate effectively tax free.

1795
01:26:00,120 --> 01:26:02,679
Speaker 2: The step up basis segments of our real estate laws

1796
01:26:02,840 --> 01:26:05,920
Speaker 2: and saying whenever it comes to stock purchases, the capital

1797
01:26:05,960 --> 01:26:09,639
Speaker 2: gains taxes going only on the appreciation within the period

1798
01:26:09,800 --> 01:26:13,200
Speaker 2: after inheritance, not from the portion when it was held

1799
01:26:13,320 --> 01:26:14,360
Speaker 2: by the original owner.

1800
01:26:15,000 --> 01:26:18,320
Speaker 3: In other words, absolutely gigantic.

1801
01:26:17,640 --> 01:26:21,280
Speaker 2: Gifts are turning over to children basically without taxes, the

1802
01:26:21,320 --> 01:26:24,320
Speaker 2: potential to not only widen income gaps, but gift wealth

1803
01:26:24,439 --> 01:26:27,240
Speaker 2: to millions who didn't work for it nearly in the

1804
01:26:27,240 --> 01:26:29,519
Speaker 2: same way that their parents did, not saying they don't

1805
01:26:29,520 --> 01:26:32,040
Speaker 2: deserve it. But if larger shares of the upper middle

1806
01:26:32,040 --> 01:26:37,639
Speaker 2: class attain status through inheritance, it significantly changes accelerating trends

1807
01:26:37,800 --> 01:26:40,000
Speaker 2: which make it much much harder to become middle class

1808
01:26:40,040 --> 01:26:41,840
Speaker 2: today than it was thirty years ago.

1809
01:26:42,200 --> 01:26:43,120
Speaker 3: Inherited wealth.

1810
01:26:43,479 --> 01:26:45,639
Speaker 2: Not only do they do what they have inherited wealthy

1811
01:26:45,680 --> 01:26:48,160
Speaker 2: have done since time immemorial. They're just going to use

1812
01:26:48,160 --> 01:26:50,920
Speaker 2: the government and fight tooth and nail to preserve wealth

1813
01:26:50,920 --> 01:26:53,639
Speaker 2: and lobby for tax codes that gives the control over

1814
01:26:53,680 --> 01:26:56,400
Speaker 2: their estates and lets them give their money to their

1815
01:26:56,479 --> 01:26:57,479
Speaker 2: kids tax free.

1816
01:26:57,720 --> 01:26:58,880
Speaker 3: The problem, though, is.

1817
01:26:58,840 --> 01:27:01,200
Speaker 2: We still live in a democracy, and in times of

1818
01:27:01,360 --> 01:27:04,120
Speaker 2: great great inheritance, like the Gilded Age before us or

1819
01:27:04,160 --> 01:27:07,040
Speaker 2: the Industrial Revolution in the UK, if you want to

1820
01:27:07,120 --> 01:27:10,120
Speaker 2: keep a relatively free market system, you are going to

1821
01:27:10,160 --> 01:27:13,920
Speaker 2: have to significantly change stuff and make some compromises. Becoming

1822
01:27:13,960 --> 01:27:17,240
Speaker 2: age of those compromises could very much change American society forever.

1823
01:27:17,439 --> 01:27:19,439
Speaker 2: We have not had a period like this really since

1824
01:27:19,479 --> 01:27:21,719
Speaker 2: the end of the Great Depression, when the initial system

1825
01:27:21,760 --> 01:27:25,040
Speaker 2: broke completely. Before that, we had the Progressive era. Both

1826
01:27:25,120 --> 01:27:28,280
Speaker 2: changed everything in the way our society was ordered, how

1827
01:27:28,320 --> 01:27:31,320
Speaker 2: we do taxes, the way the economy interacts with politics.

1828
01:27:31,400 --> 01:27:33,280
Speaker 2: Now I do not know what the solution is, as

1829
01:27:33,360 --> 01:27:36,760
Speaker 2: obviously many people have very different proposals, but expect this

1830
01:27:37,040 --> 01:27:39,080
Speaker 2: to be one of the central fights of our time,

1831
01:27:39,200 --> 01:27:41,160
Speaker 2: I thought it was astounding sixteen trillion.

1832
01:27:40,840 --> 01:27:42,960
Speaker 1: Dollars and if you want to hear my reaction to

1833
01:27:42,960 --> 01:27:46,960
Speaker 1: Cyber's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot.

1834
01:27:46,800 --> 01:27:51,559
Speaker 2: Com, Crystal, what are you taking a look at?

1835
01:27:51,720 --> 01:27:54,360
Speaker 1: Well, guys, this has been an astonishing year already of

1836
01:27:54,439 --> 01:27:57,960
Speaker 1: change across the media landscape. Twenty ten's juggernaut BuzzFeed News,

1837
01:27:58,000 --> 01:28:00,800
Speaker 1: they just shuddered. Vox was forced to raise and half

1838
01:28:00,960 --> 01:28:03,920
Speaker 1: of their previous valuation just to stay afloat, and now

1839
01:28:03,960 --> 01:28:07,439
Speaker 1: in a stunning fall, Vice Media has filed for Chapter

1840
01:28:07,439 --> 01:28:08,839
Speaker 1: eleven bankruptcy protection.

1841
01:28:09,360 --> 01:28:12,080
Speaker 4: Not so long ago that company was valued at.

1842
01:28:11,880 --> 01:28:16,559
Speaker 1: Five point seven billion dollars. They are now hoping to

1843
01:28:16,600 --> 01:28:19,559
Speaker 1: fetch two hundred and twenty five million in a fire sale.

1844
01:28:19,920 --> 01:28:22,200
Speaker 1: All of these companies were eaten alive by their bets

1845
01:28:22,320 --> 01:28:24,960
Speaker 1: that social media trends and clicks would amount to vast

1846
01:28:25,040 --> 01:28:29,560
Speaker 1: revenue streams. To justify their multi billion dollar valuations investors,

1847
01:28:29,600 --> 01:28:32,240
Speaker 1: they poured in hundreds of millions of dollars in cash,

1848
01:28:32,560 --> 01:28:34,080
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, each of these

1849
01:28:34,160 --> 01:28:37,479
Speaker 1: companies fatal flaw was reliance on major tech platforms to

1850
01:28:37,560 --> 01:28:40,240
Speaker 1: share in a sufficient slice slice of the wealth of

1851
01:28:40,280 --> 01:28:45,040
Speaker 1: digital ad dollars to justify their gigantic overheads. When ad

1852
01:28:45,080 --> 01:28:47,439
Speaker 1: revenues dipped this year as part of the Tech Session,

1853
01:28:47,760 --> 01:28:49,880
Speaker 1: it was the straw that broke a whole herd of

1854
01:28:49,920 --> 01:28:52,160
Speaker 1: camel's backs. But this is far from the end of

1855
01:28:52,160 --> 01:28:53,840
Speaker 1: the story. In fact, in a lot of ways, the

1856
01:28:53,880 --> 01:28:57,719
Speaker 1: story of widespread media devastation might just be beginning, because

1857
01:28:57,800 --> 01:29:00,720
Speaker 1: now AI has arrived that is all ready capable of

1858
01:29:00,760 --> 01:29:04,759
Speaker 1: cutting the legs out from under even financially solid media companies.

1859
01:29:05,080 --> 01:29:05,960
Speaker 4: Just take a look at this.

1860
01:29:06,040 --> 01:29:10,960
Speaker 1: Courtesy of futurism, Google unveils plan to demolish the journalism

1861
01:29:10,960 --> 01:29:13,880
Speaker 1: industry using AI now. In the article, they write the

1862
01:29:13,920 --> 01:29:17,360
Speaker 1: Google has just unveiled their new AI integrated search. A

1863
01:29:17,479 --> 01:29:20,960
Speaker 1: key component is what they call snapshots. Whatever question you

1864
01:29:21,000 --> 01:29:24,439
Speaker 1: ask their large language model AI will generate a summary

1865
01:29:24,520 --> 01:29:27,559
Speaker 1: meant to answer your query, which appears above all of

1866
01:29:27,600 --> 01:29:29,560
Speaker 1: the linked results, and so in a lot of instances,

1867
01:29:29,680 --> 01:29:31,960
Speaker 1: it's likely to be the only thing that the user

1868
01:29:32,040 --> 01:29:35,080
Speaker 1: actually pays attention to. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to

1869
01:29:35,080 --> 01:29:37,880
Speaker 1: figure out what this means for the news business. When

1870
01:29:37,960 --> 01:29:40,080
Speaker 1: users ask questions about news stories, Let's say it was

1871
01:29:40,120 --> 01:29:42,360
Speaker 1: Trump found guilty of sexual assault? What are the latest

1872
01:29:42,360 --> 01:29:45,160
Speaker 1: Democratic primary poll results? Why did DeSantis make that weird

1873
01:29:45,200 --> 01:29:45,840
Speaker 1: face in Iowa?

1874
01:29:45,920 --> 01:29:46,360
Speaker 4: Anything?

1875
01:29:46,880 --> 01:29:49,479
Speaker 1: They'll no longer be presented first and foremost with this

1876
01:29:49,560 --> 01:29:51,800
Speaker 1: list of links to news websites where you can read

1877
01:29:51,840 --> 01:29:55,479
Speaker 1: about said topic. Instead, they'll most likely content themselves with

1878
01:29:55,600 --> 01:29:58,120
Speaker 1: that AI snapshot and just move on now.

1879
01:29:58,160 --> 01:30:01,080
Speaker 4: This will result in far fewer visits to sites, which.

1880
01:30:00,920 --> 01:30:04,120
Speaker 1: Will generate far fewer ad impressions, and which will circumvent

1881
01:30:04,400 --> 01:30:07,200
Speaker 1: all paywalls, and which will prevent news sites from getting you.

1882
01:30:07,160 --> 01:30:08,520
Speaker 4: To pay for a subscription.

1883
01:30:08,960 --> 01:30:13,120
Speaker 1: These are all primary critical sources of news business revenue,

1884
01:30:13,280 --> 01:30:15,080
Speaker 1: and every one of them gets cut off at the

1885
01:30:15,160 --> 01:30:19,080
Speaker 1: knees by the innovation of AI snapshots. As RPG site

1886
01:30:19,120 --> 01:30:22,360
Speaker 1: owner Alex Donaldson puts it, quote, if this actually works

1887
01:30:22,360 --> 01:30:25,080
Speaker 1: and is implemented in a firm way, this is literally

1888
01:30:25,120 --> 01:30:27,320
Speaker 1: the end of the business model for vast swaths of

1889
01:30:27,320 --> 01:30:28,040
Speaker 1: digital media.

1890
01:30:28,360 --> 01:30:30,599
Speaker 4: Lol. Will publishers be paid.

1891
01:30:30,400 --> 01:30:33,040
Speaker 1: For providing this grisk for the AI mill doesn't really

1892
01:30:33,120 --> 01:30:36,120
Speaker 1: look like it, A Google spokesperson told Futurism, quote, we

1893
01:30:36,160 --> 01:30:38,160
Speaker 1: don't have plans to share on this, but will continue

1894
01:30:38,200 --> 01:30:39,920
Speaker 1: to work within the broader ecosystem.

1895
01:30:40,040 --> 01:30:42,120
Speaker 4: Whatever that means. So what is this all going to

1896
01:30:42,160 --> 01:30:42,439
Speaker 4: look like?

1897
01:30:42,520 --> 01:30:45,120
Speaker 1: Well, if you are not a behemoth like The Times,

1898
01:30:45,120 --> 01:30:47,599
Speaker 1: The Post, or the Wall Street Journal, you're probably screwed.

1899
01:30:47,880 --> 01:30:50,200
Speaker 1: Twenty tens digital media plays were taken out by betting

1900
01:30:50,200 --> 01:30:52,360
Speaker 1: on social media. Now a lot of other outlets are

1901
01:30:52,400 --> 01:30:55,200
Speaker 1: going to be taken out by their reliance on search platforms,

1902
01:30:55,200 --> 01:30:57,200
Speaker 1: squeezing an already struggling industry.

1903
01:30:57,640 --> 01:30:58,920
Speaker 4: Google, after all.

1904
01:30:58,800 --> 01:31:02,200
Speaker 1: Accounts for ninety one percent of all search traffic, and

1905
01:31:02,280 --> 01:31:04,479
Speaker 1: other search platforms like Bing they're gonna have their own

1906
01:31:04,520 --> 01:31:07,719
Speaker 1: AI bots as well. In the news industry, they're already

1907
01:31:07,720 --> 01:31:09,960
Speaker 1: in a world of hurt after all. Even large outlets

1908
01:31:10,000 --> 01:31:12,960
Speaker 1: places like NBC News Washington Posts they've announced layoffs to

1909
01:31:13,000 --> 01:31:16,040
Speaker 1: cope with that downturn in ad revenue. So what is

1910
01:31:16,120 --> 01:31:18,800
Speaker 1: going to survive Outside of the giants? You can kind

1911
01:31:18,800 --> 01:31:21,599
Speaker 1: of still make business models work that either have very

1912
01:31:21,640 --> 01:31:25,919
Speaker 1: low overhead or and or some sort of dedicated audience

1913
01:31:25,960 --> 01:31:28,360
Speaker 1: willing to pay. That means a lot more hot takes

1914
01:31:28,400 --> 01:31:30,720
Speaker 1: than on the ground reporting or investigative journalism, both of

1915
01:31:30,720 --> 01:31:33,680
Speaker 1: which are comparatively expensive. It means more playing to a

1916
01:31:33,760 --> 01:31:37,679
Speaker 1: dedicated niche, either an ideological or personality based one, because

1917
01:31:37,720 --> 01:31:41,040
Speaker 1: a fervent audience willing to pay is more important than

1918
01:31:41,080 --> 01:31:44,439
Speaker 1: a large general audience with lower commitment. It means a

1919
01:31:44,439 --> 01:31:47,200
Speaker 1: lot more insider tip sheets that lobbyists and corporate interests

1920
01:31:47,200 --> 01:31:50,120
Speaker 1: find valuable to help their bottom line one way or another,

1921
01:31:50,280 --> 01:31:52,920
Speaker 1: you'd better keep it small and provide something, whether it's

1922
01:31:52,960 --> 01:31:56,320
Speaker 1: genuine insight or ideological sucker or insider gossip, that people

1923
01:31:56,360 --> 01:32:00,800
Speaker 1: find genuinely worth paying for. Now, frankly for any of this,

1924
01:32:00,960 --> 01:32:03,360
Speaker 1: because I think it amounts to an accelerated hollowing out

1925
01:32:03,400 --> 01:32:06,080
Speaker 1: of the media industry giants that will all be forced

1926
01:32:06,080 --> 01:32:07,960
Speaker 1: to rely on for news breaking and a sea of

1927
01:32:07,960 --> 01:32:10,639
Speaker 1: small creators to sift through it all and analyze it.

1928
01:32:10,760 --> 01:32:12,960
Speaker 1: In an analogy to the disappearance of the middle class

1929
01:32:12,960 --> 01:32:15,960
Speaker 1: in our broader economy, the whole middle tier publishers, they're

1930
01:32:16,040 --> 01:32:18,680
Speaker 1: likely to be pushed down an acceleration again of a

1931
01:32:18,760 --> 01:32:21,840
Speaker 1: process that has already been playing out over years. What

1932
01:32:21,920 --> 01:32:24,760
Speaker 1: other industries is AI set to casually upend and send

1933
01:32:24,800 --> 01:32:27,200
Speaker 1: careening off a cliff Well, we covered earlier how a

1934
01:32:27,240 --> 01:32:29,040
Speaker 1: lot of white collar jobs lost to the tech session.

1935
01:32:29,080 --> 01:32:31,639
Speaker 1: They're gone forever as tech companies plan to replace humans

1936
01:32:31,640 --> 01:32:34,280
Speaker 1: with AI, we're only beginning to wrap our heads around

1937
01:32:34,280 --> 01:32:36,360
Speaker 1: what this all may look like in a new era.

1938
01:32:36,760 --> 01:32:39,439
Speaker 1: Lucky for us, however, Daily Mail recently asked AI to

1939
01:32:39,520 --> 01:32:40,439
Speaker 1: predict how it's all going.

1940
01:32:40,360 --> 01:32:40,840
Speaker 4: To turn out.

1941
01:32:41,120 --> 01:32:43,519
Speaker 1: They asked what ten different American cities might look like

1942
01:32:43,560 --> 01:32:46,400
Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen, and according to AI image generator mid Journey,

1943
01:32:46,439 --> 01:32:48,200
Speaker 1: it's all going to work out. Great, guys, here's a

1944
01:32:48,240 --> 01:32:51,160
Speaker 1: rendering of San Diego. Another of Washington, DC looks lush,

1945
01:32:51,200 --> 01:32:54,440
Speaker 1: green clean. Finally get those long promise flying cars. Apparently,

1946
01:32:54,840 --> 01:32:57,760
Speaker 1: perhaps AI is right, and powerful AI models wielded by

1947
01:32:57,800 --> 01:33:00,400
Speaker 1: a bunch of soulless corporations will actually.

1948
01:33:00,080 --> 01:33:01,040
Speaker 4: Lead us to the promised land.

1949
01:33:01,640 --> 01:33:03,599
Speaker 1: Or perhaps it we'll just accelerate all of the worst

1950
01:33:03,600 --> 01:33:05,840
Speaker 1: trends which are already eating away at our society and

1951
01:33:05,920 --> 01:33:08,479
Speaker 1: our economy. I'd wager the reality of the doom news

1952
01:33:08,520 --> 01:33:11,920
Speaker 1: business is probably a better predictor than the AI's futuristic

1953
01:33:12,000 --> 01:33:15,200
Speaker 1: utopian hallucinations. This is the piece that was always the

1954
01:33:15,240 --> 01:33:15,720
Speaker 1: most clear to me.

1955
01:33:15,760 --> 01:33:18,479
Speaker 2: And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1956
01:33:18,479 --> 01:33:25,080
Speaker 2: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. Okay, guys,

1957
01:33:25,320 --> 01:33:27,680
Speaker 2: we really appreciate you guys watching. As we said, we've

1958
01:33:27,720 --> 01:33:30,679
Speaker 2: got the RFK interview coming. It'll be later today for

1959
01:33:30,920 --> 01:33:33,799
Speaker 2: our premium subscribers. For everybody else, it will be up tomorrow,

1960
01:33:33,880 --> 01:33:35,040
Speaker 2: so if you want to watch it early, if you

1961
01:33:35,040 --> 01:33:37,520
Speaker 2: want to help support our work stuff like this breakingpoints

1962
01:33:37,520 --> 01:33:40,000
Speaker 2: dot com. Otherwise, we'll have a great Counterpoints show also

1963
01:33:40,040 --> 01:33:57,760
Speaker 2: for everybody tomorrow, and we will see you all on Thursday.