1 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. All right, 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: what's up everybody, and welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly offseason show. 4 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: I'm your host, John the Gaza. Follow me up on 5 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 1: Twitter at John Lagaza l A G hg Zza. Our 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: esteemed friend and host Corey Parson. A little under the 7 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: weather everyone said that I get well soon to the 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: Fantasy exec I'm gonna try and fill those big nikes 9 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: and do a reducts of an article that I wrote 10 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: heading into the season. When I like to do that 11 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:45,959 Speaker 1: kind of work, you know, a year of a year, 12 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: data checking metatrends and macro stuff, taking the temperature of 13 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: the league and you know, seeing what you could see 14 00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: and if there's anything worthwhile to draw from it. Again, 15 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: these all starts like a hypothesis, just plotting data. Now 16 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 1: I am going to bury the lead because I think 17 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: you're gonna see how this kind of work really does matter. 18 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: So the inkling was right. The hypothesis. The start was 19 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 1: Offenses feel drained. Things feel a little bit slower. There 20 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: feels like there's less scoring. Passing feels down, running feels up, 21 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: which we know intuitively is going to bring down total scoring, 22 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: as that TikTok of the clock is always going. But 23 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: I think sometimes we have to be careful just going 24 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: by our eyes and the things we see on the 25 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 1: television and try to make determinative anecdotal claims. Right. That 26 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: stuff can kind of get you in trouble. So the 27 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: off season always the perfect time. I started with please 28 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: per game and yards per game. Now I was able 29 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: to go back a full decade on all this data 30 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: just to give you an idea. Now, you never want 31 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: to overreact, but like any good trader or analyst, you 32 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: start plotting those data points and if they tell you 33 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: a story, it's our job not to ignore it. So again, 34 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: please per game, yards per game. I happen to have 35 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: the chart up, but I'll walk you through it. And again, 36 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: a lot of these are just kind of in your face. 37 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four had the third fewest please in a decade, 38 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: but the yards per game also right at the bottom. 39 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: So when you're talking least and least, you have to 40 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: start to worry about efficiency. As we're talking about this stuff, 41 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: you know, there was this famous or I don't know 42 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: if it's infamous. I guess somewhat popular. If you're old enough, 43 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: it was the Ed McMahon show. Maybe if you're a 44 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 1: little bit younger, it's the Gong Show. His name is 45 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,040 Speaker 1: Eric Brennan. He'd spend these like bowls on sticks. I 46 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: always used to use that as my favorite analogy for 47 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: critical thinking. I know, stick with me. It's one of 48 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: the bulls, right, the idea being, it's been as many 49 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: of these things as you want, providing you get back 50 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: to in time before it falls off. And that's kind 51 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: of how ideas are, so we want to kind of 52 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: keep building this thought. Right, So we had this idea 53 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: that things are slowing down. Defense, of course, is a 54 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 1: part of that. And when we think about football, one 55 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: of the harder things to quantify in general is defense. 56 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: I'm a statistical hank, I'm a spreadsheet guy. I'm always 57 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: watching this stuff and quoting this stuff, but always kind 58 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: of wary of how specific is this data. One of 59 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: the things I'm referring to. I was talking to Mike Sando, 60 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 1: really kind of noted writer and NFL brain. He has 61 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: a whole theme vote and all that stuff, kind of 62 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: asking him about the quantification of defense, and it's one 63 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: of the harder things because we're seeing disguise blitzes and 64 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: foe blitz packages. That really does affect pre snap read, right, 65 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: because that's the whole idea is now you're playing this 66 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: pre snap chess and what we thought of as a 67 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: quarterback's ability to read these things was going to give 68 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: him the leg up. But now more and more coordinators 69 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,799 Speaker 1: and coaches we're seeing this pre flop and post flop. 70 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: The reads are completely different. Drop eight pretending to blitz 71 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: and not or vice versa. Something we actually talked about 72 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: on the show coming into the Super Bowl. That was 73 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: one of my takes actually was to be on the 74 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: lookout for late blitzes from the secondary from the Seahawks, 75 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: and that's exactly what we got there. We're doing in 76 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: all playoffs and they continue because it works. It's really 77 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: a wrinkle you don't see a lot of so you 78 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: will see safeties creep, but now more and more we're 79 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: seeing them kind of take off for the quarterback. So 80 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,039 Speaker 1: I kind of wanted to leave the foundation for why 81 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: we might be seeing this difficulty, and it has to 82 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: do with a complexity on the defensive side, so the 83 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: yards per game, Like I was mentioning, I guess I 84 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: could try and frame it a little bit better. Those 85 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: we are in, like the mid three fifties, in the 86 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen twenty eighteen range. We started to see a 87 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: dip right after twenty twenty into the three forties, then 88 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: into the three thirties, twenty three and twenty four, right 89 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: we're seeing a precipitous drop. Twenty twenty five comes in 90 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: at three twenty six point six, just another full leg 91 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: down of this trend, So if you were anticipating a slowdown, 92 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: you got more of it in speeds. I happen to 93 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 1: keep a pretty robust data set. I don't know if 94 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: it always helps me. Right, There is such a thing 95 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 1: as paralysis by analysis. I try and balance those things 96 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 1: with like I'm talking about common sense with tape watching, 97 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: speaking to people that are involved with the hand in 98 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: the dirt of the actual game being played. And another 99 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: thing that I heard mentioned that I wondered if we 100 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: could quantify, which we're getting a little bit better at, 101 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: is the piece of the game now because we're seeing 102 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: more changes on the defensive side, that begets more processing 103 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: time from the quarterback. Now my favorite stat to use, again, 104 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: this is not perfect, But I do think it works. 105 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: It's there isn't even a name for it through vogue, right, 106 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 1: It's what the play clock reads on average at time 107 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: of snap. Right. We don't have something for that, so 108 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: average play clock snap time. Right, I'm gonna have to 109 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: come up with a snazzy acronym for that. But now, 110 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: this data only goes back to twenty nineteen. But again, 111 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: as a trader and an analyst, I'll just go from 112 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen up ten five, eleven, ten, six, ten seven, ten, five, 113 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: ten five. What is that? How you rune it for that? 114 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: Over such a tremendous sample, Remember these are league samples. 115 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: All those little differences should probably be seen as a blip, 116 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: not necessarily say, an anomaly, but a data point that 117 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: will regress, meaning definitionally speeding the NFL even throughout this change. Right, 118 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: Because we already defined the drop off in average gain, 119 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: this change didn't happen, right, I just say lack of change. However, 120 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: drum roll please, production twenty twenty five that comes in 121 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: at nine flight. Now, again, we can't go back further 122 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: than twenty nineteen. It's so we have. But when you 123 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: have a steady ten point five and that drops to nine. 124 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: You know, you're talking about a one and a half 125 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: change on ten. That's a ten percent change in piece 126 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: of play. Again, this is back of the napkin. However, 127 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: brush fires and light bulbs, I guess, depending what century 128 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: your brain operates in, should be going off right, lights 129 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: should be going off. Lights, and sounds. So it was 130 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: kind of interesting right off the bat, how you know, 131 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: I kind of lead this out hoping I would remember 132 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: to revisit it than being lucky enough to have the 133 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: opportunity to speak to all you lovely people out there 134 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 1: about it and then see that the follow up, you know, 135 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: was so intense. The article continued, Where did the drop 136 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: an offense occurred? Russia's had gone for newly these many 137 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: yards on average at any point into ten years in 138 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Right, lots of plays will inherently bleed 139 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: the cock, but effective Russian plays bleeds the game, like 140 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: I was kind of mentioned in before, So then I 141 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: charted rush rate and yards per rush. Rush rate again 142 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: that same timeframe twenty fifteen was around forty one, forty one, 143 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: forty two, forty one forty one. Again kind of a 144 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: static build. Remember we mentioned that change that extra laid 145 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: down in game around twenty twenty three. That directly correlates 146 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: with a spike in rush rate over forty three where 147 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: it's now stuck forty three to three forty three four 148 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: now forty three eight in twenty twenty five. So again 149 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: we're really kind of seeing I would call it validation 150 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 1: right of this hypothesis or even assertion to anticipate the 151 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: drop down in offense, like would it bounce back? Because 152 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: that's always the question we need to be answering for 153 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: ourselves again as analysts or bears or fantasy players. Will 154 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: this change regress to a mean? Right? Remember it can 155 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: regress or progress, but return to the mean. Traders are 156 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 1: thinking about a rectangular action, right, meaning when it's low, 157 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 1: you're expecting the bounce up, and when up you're expecting 158 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: the de bounced out opposed to continuation. Right. We talk 159 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: about that. We use the term breakout traders and fantasy players. 160 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: There's so much overlap into two spheres, so that's what 161 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: you have to look at. Remember, breakouts could be up. 162 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: It could also break down. We don't call it break ins, 163 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: but it is a breakout to the downside or a 164 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: breakout to the upside. So that's what it looks like 165 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: we're really getting here, was not a return to the 166 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: mean in these stats, but a breakout to the downside. 167 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: How far could it go? I don't know. You know, 168 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: turn off the lights and I'll glow. But the yards 169 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: of rush, because I also mentioned in efficiency that also 170 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: yards per rush for the league for one for one 171 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: for one, four to two. Then at that same time 172 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: of change, we start to see an uptick four four four, five, 173 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: four four and four four. Funny though, yards before contact 174 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: per rush actually drop in accordance, while the yards per 175 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: contact after rush actually increase, and I think that speaks 176 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: to this preventative approach to defense right well, as we 177 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: talk about offense, there's always the kind of counterbalance of 178 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: how that's gonna work with the offensive side. Now, I 179 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: want you to table again that bowl was the zone 180 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: we're gonna get into passing. But when the zone rate 181 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: came up, because I believe that's where the function is, 182 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: Defenses are relying more on the tackle with the secondary 183 00:11:56,960 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: back further and to even expand more what we were 184 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: talking about with the disguised looks when they're pretending to 185 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: push forward, this is your secondary and then having to 186 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: backpedal into coverage. I think that hurts a run stopping aspect, right, 187 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: because it becomes a momentum game. They become more dedicated 188 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: to covering the space that they've compensated for with the 189 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 1: you know, sneaking upright to pretend blitz It might not 190 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: have even been pretended. Sometimes it's to gauge a reaction. Again, 191 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: what you hear from more and more good analysts out there, 192 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: Kurt Warner probably the most noted for it. Kind of 193 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: taking a you know, really philosophical approach is kind of 194 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: Plato or Socrates approach of you know, we shouldn't assert 195 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: that we know anything. The one thing we know is 196 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: we don't know anything. Because unless you know the playbook, 197 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: it's hard to say that's a bad throw. What if 198 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: they wide receiver ran a poorer route, right, There's so 199 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: many moving pieces again, so I want to get into 200 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 1: the passing stuff. No, so why did it drop in 201 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: offensive car? And I think you know part of it, right, 202 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 1: is the running the TikTok of the clock that we mentioned, 203 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: but I wrote this. The lower frequency of total passes 204 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: coincides with the lower depth of target in the sample 205 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: as well. Considering the undeniable trends that are developing, I'm 206 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: afraid the wet blanket era is here to stay. Another 207 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: one that kind of ties into the zone rate here. 208 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: Let's put some perspective on those stats as well, So 209 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: was completions per game? And all these stats kind of 210 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: tell the same story. I'll just read you going backwards 211 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: in time, starting from twenty fifteen, as always, right, I 212 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: always try and be very careful and not missframing, giving 213 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: listeners and followers or other analysts, you know, the tools 214 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: to do their own work right, but they're not misframing 215 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 1: to give you the best kind of deep perspective that 216 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: we can. Twenty two five, twenty two five, twenty two four, 217 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: twenty two to one, twenty three, twenty two to three. 218 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: What do we get again? We get static though rectangular action. 219 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: It's never going to be exactly the same. Great players 220 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: get hurt, new great players emerge, and every varying in between. 221 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: But to me, that really kind of looks sticky. What 222 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: happens we hit that same point like this, it's the 223 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: same inflection point. In twenty twenty two, we finally get 224 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: a completion game completion per game average below twenty two 225 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: at twenty one last year's drumroll, please twenty and a 226 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: half for the first time. So we're not just seeing like, oh, 227 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: you know when it's scraping these new bottoms. We're making 228 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: new loads. And unfortunately, if anybody is a bullish trader 229 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: out there, they know the sinking feeling in the gut 230 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: when you're dying for a green candle because you're near 231 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: a low. But the next candle hits and it sinks 232 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: because the trend is validated. Right, these are the things 233 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: that happened in real markets. That's how price machinations work 234 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: and how we know that something is kind of for real. Right, 235 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: So completions per game were down, my assumption might have 236 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: been that the death of target right a dot airyards 237 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: per target, they will kind of describe the same thing. 238 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: The thinking then should be probably that it's also down 239 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: again in speeds at the same inflection point. We're gonna 240 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: keep beating the dead horse. I'm gonna keep, you know, 241 00:15:55,720 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: be the broken record air orcs prottempts starting in twenty fifteen. 242 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: Tell me when you notice a trend eight four eight 243 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: three eight three eight one seven nine. We didn't even 244 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: get the rectangle. Here we just get the drop off 245 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: seven to one seven oh seven oh seven oh. Now 246 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: it feels like a new norm. Air yards per attempt 247 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: are down a half of yard. That stuff matters. Geords 248 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: per completion, same timeframe drop from eleven five to under eleven. 249 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 1: All of these things are telling us the same story, right, 250 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: that there has been a drop right, and it is 251 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: for real. The zone coverage rates have gone up every 252 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: single year. Two high show rates have gone up again 253 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: every single year. So what do we do with this information? Right? 254 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: That's kind of it. You know, I don't want to say, 255 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: you know, we were right, because things always could turn right. 256 00:16:55,480 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: This is a league of punch and CounterPunch, which is 257 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: how we got into this mess in the first place. 258 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: Defensive were so tired of getting beat over the top 259 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: that they just said enough is enough. Sign a couple 260 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 1: good center fielders to play safety, which I think we've 261 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 1: probably learned. One need that probably that comes to mind 262 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 1: the most would be Kyle Hamilton on the Ravens. And 263 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: this is the true meshing of great coaching and great players, 264 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 1: because the safety is probably the only defensive player with 265 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 1: the ability to play all three levels, and Kyle Hamilton 266 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: has been that. Now, granted he's not necessarily in the 267 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: trenches shoving around three fifty pound beheamoths, but he plays 268 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: effectively at all three levels, able to help understand, assist impact, 269 00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: or even retreat to impact. So it should be no 270 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: surprise how teams are, you know, using the preventative two 271 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: high shells to keep everything in front of them, almost 272 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: daring the other team run. It may take us, you 273 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:19,959 Speaker 1: know a little bit. It might be a little bit 274 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: harder to tackle right, reflective in those more one on 275 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: one tackle raids that I think we've seen. But we're 276 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: gonna get to him, and we're gonna stop Patrick Mahomes 277 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:33,880 Speaker 1: from completing three to four explosive plays which are generally 278 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 1: like eighteen or twenty yard completions, where he could be 279 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 1: good for three forty yard completions because once the defense 280 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: breaks right, it almost becomes binary. Broken secondary equals touchdown, 281 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: whereas broken defensive run schematic equals first down a lot 282 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: of times, but it doesn't equal touchdown all the time 283 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: the way those breakdowns are. So this very conservative approach 284 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,880 Speaker 1: to defense is working. So what are you gonna get? 285 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 1: I think what you're gonna get is what's worked, you know, 286 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: for the offenses and how that impacts fantasy players. I 287 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: think we've seen probably the last two seasons, and I 288 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:28,959 Speaker 1: think it continues, which is running back early. Now the 289 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: health situation, I'm knocking on wood with some percentage of wood. 290 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 1: At least let me get the head to make sure 291 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 1: I'm over fifty percent. These guys have stayed healthy. Injuries 292 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 1: are nearly impossible to predict, and they'll continue to be 293 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: that way. So the best thing you can do is 294 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: go with the macro trends. All the best top scores 295 00:19:55,080 --> 00:20:00,439 Speaker 1: are the running backs. They're the most reliable. Cost The 296 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: rush rate is now higher than it was. Right, less passing, 297 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:11,479 Speaker 1: and it's at a lower depth. It's it's the worst 298 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 1: of all worlds. Right, fewer plays that involved fewer passes 299 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 1: that are also shorter in distance. Now it doesn't mean 300 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 1: abandoned ship on wide receivers. But I do think, and 301 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: you know, this is a meta l that I kind 302 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: of had to take though. Lucky for us in this world, 303 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 1: every day you get to make up and make new 304 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: decisions with new data. Right, you're not foot flopping. It's 305 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: called critical thinking. I've shifted, I meaning my entire PPR 306 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 1: fantasy life. Let's say it was always wide receiver early, 307 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 1: if not two wide receivers to start, three wide receivers 308 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: to start whatever whatever it took to get it done, 309 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 1: zero RB, and I'll kind of figure it out from there. Now, 310 00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: I think it's become more critical than ever to have 311 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: at least one superstar running back and probably to pair 312 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,199 Speaker 1: it with hopefully what's a superstar wide receiver. And in 313 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: fantasy football, because samples are so small, if you hit 314 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: on one of two, you're probably at ordon in the playoffs. 315 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: If you hit two of two, you're probably gonna make 316 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: noise in the playoffs. So it just becomes about nailing down, 317 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 1: you know, those top two picks, which again is really 318 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 1: really difficult. I want to go back to the passing 319 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: trend because there's a few more minutes. But this is 320 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: also stuff that I think changes fantasy. So two real 321 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 1: points again kind of meta related that same timeframe and 322 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:54,159 Speaker 1: the shifts that we've seen. So this new kind of 323 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,719 Speaker 1: trickery that we've seen on the defensive side is turning 324 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 1: into more sacks and more pressures, more hurries at all 325 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 1: of those things. Right, pressure rate was below thirty four 326 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,439 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty when thirty four thirty four, thirty four 327 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 1: and a half, that same timeframe leaps up near thirty eight. 328 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: Last year is thirty eight and a half. So again 329 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 1: we're not just kind of talking the smack. We're seeing 330 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 1: it on the spreadsheet. Three wide receiver sets and this 331 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: is the wide receiver point that I think we're gonna 332 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: take it, right. So the running back point is you 333 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: never want to say this strategy, this strategy can't win. 334 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,439 Speaker 1: I'm gonna speak for myself. I think the highest probability 335 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 1: to win includes one stud RB at the least wide receivers. 336 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 1: It includes one stud wide receiver at least. The thing 337 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: that I think matters the most are the alphas, right, 338 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:02,120 Speaker 1: the true kind of wide receiver, ones that also work 339 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: out of the slot. That versatility, I think has been 340 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: one of the assets in the fantasy game that's really 341 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:21,719 Speaker 1: elevated those really good wide receivers, you know, the tippy 342 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,719 Speaker 1: top wide receivers, and to the guys that can separate 343 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: into the one a's. So this is last year's totals. 344 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: By the way, how do you get, you know, to 345 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: the real top of the board. How do you stand 346 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 1: out in your ADP class. Again, it's slot targets per game. 347 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: I'm looking at man, it's got to be the top 348 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 1: fifty pass catchers. Fifty or sixty pass catchers in terms 349 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: of total Fantasy points score right, Wide receivers and tight ends, 350 00:23:55,000 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: there's hardly any that earn more than three slot targets. 351 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: It's per game. Doesn't sound like a lot, but think 352 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 1: about it in PPR terms, you catch most of those balls, 353 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 1: right We're talking about the very best receivers that are 354 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: being put in a plus matchup at a lower ad 355 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 1: DOT in a higher probability completion scenario. So that's all 356 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 1: bonus right there. Those are all your free points, the 357 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: receivers that did this over three slot targets per game. 358 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 1: But that we're also let's go, you know, top fifty 359 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: overall pass catching scorers in PPR. PoCA Nakua he's pretty good, 360 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: Amana Saint Brown, he's pretty good. Trey McBride, he's pretty good, 361 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, Chris alave Ze Flowers, how about Wandale Robinson 362 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 1: Nearly six lot targets game. Now, that was a little 363 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: bit of an anomaly without k neighbors, but that's where 364 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 1: it came from. You know, that's where it came from. 365 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: He was racking up just under four catches for just 366 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 1: over forty yards. That's per game. Wandale is starting out 367 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 1: of the box with eight and a half points a game. 368 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: He's like a wide receiver four getting off the bus. 369 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: You could go down even further and they start to 370 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: run out. Drake London is there, DeVonta Smith is there, 371 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey did it, Deebo Samuel did it, Parker Washington, 372 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: and we're getting to like end of list here, brock 373 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: Bowers did it. It's a really good list. But again, 374 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: it's all about that versatility I think is really really 375 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: really important because teams are doing such a good job 376 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: of taking away those deep looks, and those deep looks 377 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: outside all those really high value targets now seem to 378 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: be going more towards specialists in that field. Right, that's 379 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:05,199 Speaker 1: your Alec Pierce, right. So this to me feels like 380 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: the new binary in wide receiver rooms. Give me the 381 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: true alpha that kind of does everything, or the deep 382 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: target guy. And now for me, right, that's my meta 383 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 1: l changing into what's hopefully gonna be a meta w 384 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 1: It was always for me volume volume, volume, I was 385 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 1: gonna rack up the catches, rack up the opportunities, and 386 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,640 Speaker 1: not really worry about that I'm gonna age myself. It 387 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: was always the DeShawn Jackson model. He's the first player 388 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: I think of that could go two for one hundred 389 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,679 Speaker 1: and thirty one and two, three for one hundred and 390 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 1: thirty seven and two. You see those lines a couple 391 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: times a year. I was never interested in the zero. 392 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: Here's the kicker right, all the balls behind us. As 393 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: we witness an overall drop down in offense, there's really 394 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: been a consolidation in wide receiver rooms outside of the 395 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: tippy top wide outs, which is perfect for us because 396 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,159 Speaker 1: we were just now looking for a new place to 397 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,439 Speaker 1: draft running backs, so that should be upfront where you 398 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: should now be able to more comfortably dip into wide 399 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: receivers that go, you know a little bit a little 400 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 1: bit deeper, they work deeper, that actually now earn those 401 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 1: high value opportunities that we maybe ignored. Then players that 402 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: stuck out in this range before we get going. Alan 403 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:52,959 Speaker 1: pearc he was obviously the prototype. Christian Watson put up 404 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: really strong numbers, right, So now we're kind of looking 405 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 1: at the air yard guys. Guys, that wracked up a 406 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 1: new type of opportunity. Right, if you can't get eleven targets, 407 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,120 Speaker 1: can we get one hundred air yards worth of opportunity? 408 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: Christian Wasson, Kayshawn Booty, Malik Neighbors is on that list. 409 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: Brian Thomas was actually on the list, Ricky Pearson, Terry 410 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 1: McLaurin rom A doonsay just to give you an idea 411 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: of that next style of wide out that we're gonna 412 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 1: be looking for, because again I just don't think you're 413 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,439 Speaker 1: gonna get it with volume. Very last bow, want and 414 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,720 Speaker 1: hope everyone enjoyed the show, and it had to do 415 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 1: with tight ends, which is the last kind of piece 416 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: of this. With fewer and fewer three wide receiver sets, 417 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 1: we've seen more and more. I haven't listed as two 418 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: plus tight end sets meaning two or three or more. 419 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: But again, the movement is undeniable because we just made 420 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: I don't want to call what an all time high, 421 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 1: but it likely is. But it's a decade long high 422 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 1: by nearly ten percent. So again, these are not just 423 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: like someone making the point, oh we got a new high, 424 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: and it's you know, it's one percentage point, it's a 425 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 1: ten percent difference from an established data set like this 426 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: kind of is significant. And how this plays into tight 427 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 1: ends now is I think it pushes me off of 428 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 1: the elite tight ends at the top of the board 429 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: something I know. I'm speaking about a couple of weeks ago. 430 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 1: Fantasy tight end once. If you're going to pay up 431 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 1: in the top twenty five, yeah, we want them to 432 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 1: score a lot of points, but it's more about their 433 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 1: separation from the field than it is their total score. 434 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: In those years where Travis Kelsey was worth a first 435 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: round pick, it's because he was the only tight end 436 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 1: doing anything like that. Now, not only are there are 437 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 1: a few tight ends that do great stuff like that, 438 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 1: there are more and more tight ends that are going 439 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 1: to become part of offenses in general. So I think 440 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 1: that'll do it. I hope everyone enjoyed the show. How 441 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: we so a trend lead into something that hopefully will 442 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 1: manifest into tips that we're using in our fantasy streets. 443 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 1: Are from Drawn mcgaze and everybody I Fantasy Football Weekly. 444 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 1: Enjoy the games, enjoy the day, and when we're done 445 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 1: with the book, enjoy the pay. Take care