1
00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,240
Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into betting pros. It is

2
00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: the week four college football early line look ahead. We

3
00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:10,000
Speaker 1: are gonna be breaking down all the early lines. Where's

4
00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:12,200
Speaker 1: the values? What are the bets that we're getting in

5
00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:16,480
Speaker 1: because last week cash money that Tulane under I hope

6
00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,079
Speaker 1: you listened. I am Chris Wells. You could find me

7
00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,320
Speaker 1: on Twitter at is it the welst That is Thornton Nystrom,

8
00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,079
Speaker 1: Thorp Ku on the X on the Twitter. It is

9
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 1: just the two of us for this go round, just

10
00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 1: like old school, like last year, thor We're gonna get

11
00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,920
Speaker 1: through all the games. I think the biggest talk was

12
00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,080
Speaker 1: the team that did not cover but is now three

13
00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,560
Speaker 1: and oh. Colorado almost dropped the bag. They definitely dropped

14
00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,280
Speaker 1: the bag on the betting department. They didn't come remotely

15
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,680
Speaker 1: close to covering, but they went into that double ot.

16
00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:45,640
Speaker 1: They were able to win their three and oh, and

17
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,680
Speaker 1: they are going to be a topic of conversation for

18
00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,760
Speaker 1: this week. But it almost was a huge epic disaster.

19
00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:55,240
Speaker 1: I thought that Colorado was winning by seventy five. After

20
00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,440
Speaker 1: the comments about the hat and the helmet, I was

21
00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 1: ready to ladder bet that thing to forty got it didn't,

22
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,960
Speaker 1: and they just came out kind of stagnant in the beginning.

23
00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:05,720
Speaker 1: I know we've been talking about Colorado at the beginning

24
00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,920
Speaker 1: of the show, but they've been each of the last

25
00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 1: couple shows. But they've been the most exciting college football

26
00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:11,959
Speaker 1: team in the land for sure.

27
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they got I didn't think they were gonna

28
00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,720
Speaker 2: get caught in the look ahead to Oregon, but they

29
00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,080
Speaker 2: clearly did. Colorado State was the team that came out

30
00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,720
Speaker 2: in that one inspired, maybe a little too inspired. Colorado

31
00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,240
Speaker 2: State got flag for a whole bunch of penalties and

32
00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,320
Speaker 2: that brutal chief shot that knocked out Travis sent Travis

33
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 2: Hunter to the hospital, and Travis Hunter gonna miss multiple games.

34
00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:37,759
Speaker 2: That's something you're gonna need to keep in mind as

35
00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,600
Speaker 2: far as Colorado goes. After the game, Dion had a

36
00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,720
Speaker 2: great take saying, losing Travis Hunter is like losing two

37
00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 2: elite players. You lose an elite shutdown corner on the

38
00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 2: one side, you lose an elite wide receiver on the

39
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 2: other side. That one hurts Colorado especially, you know, heading

40
00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,600
Speaker 2: into this week against Oregon. But I was impressed with

41
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,640
Speaker 2: Colorado State outside of their the players. Some of those

42
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:04,320
Speaker 2: laughs lapses of discipline and outside of Jay Norvel's game management,

43
00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 2: but that team played really hard and they also had

44
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,960
Speaker 2: a good game plan, not great in game decisions by Norvel,

45
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,040
Speaker 2: but a really good game plan to try to combat,

46
00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,680
Speaker 2: especially that Colorado passing attack which needed a long time

47
00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,440
Speaker 2: to get going in that game. So I definitely upgrade

48
00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 2: at Colorado State this week in the PAW rankings. I

49
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:29,200
Speaker 2: did knock down Colorado also taken into consideration Travis Hunter

50
00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,080
Speaker 2: missing the next couple of weeks. But yeah, that it

51
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,040
Speaker 2: was great theater last night, that's for sure.

52
00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,239
Speaker 1: I will also say that one key thing that did

53
00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 1: happen was a proof and point about though we didn't

54
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,200
Speaker 1: actually need it needed, but proof in point of like

55
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,760
Speaker 1: locking into the early line look ahead show when we

56
00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,239
Speaker 1: were able to get that Tulane Southern miss line, which

57
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,320
Speaker 1: again I think it was irrelevant after the fact, but

58
00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,200
Speaker 1: we saw that thing drop by like four points from

59
00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,520
Speaker 1: when we were early talking about it. So getting into

60
00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,600
Speaker 1: some of those early lines definitely key, definitely important before

61
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,120
Speaker 1: the movement starts happening, and that is what we are

62
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,000
Speaker 1: going to do today. So hopefully Thor can want us

63
00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:09,799
Speaker 1: some more money with another one of those money called

64
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:11,639
Speaker 1: that's the thors Hammer. I don't know if you had

65
00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,280
Speaker 1: what was did you have? Did you have a thors

66
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,120
Speaker 1: Hammer on the Saturday live stream?

67
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,720
Speaker 2: I did, And it was also that the same one,

68
00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,120
Speaker 2: the two lane Southern miss under. Even though it had

69
00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,239
Speaker 2: come down at that point from when we bet it,

70
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,079
Speaker 2: what was it like four points four and a half

71
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,160
Speaker 2: points by the time it was right before kickoff on Saturday,

72
00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 2: but it was like, I that was still a fire.

73
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, and to your point, well, it's like, you know,

74
00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,880
Speaker 2: there are not every game that you get early in

75
00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,040
Speaker 2: the week with the with the line value whatnot. Is

76
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,960
Speaker 2: that line value going to come into play that one

77
00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,120
Speaker 2: cash easy all numbers. But you know, we mentioned a

78
00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,720
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago with that Utah game against Baylor,

79
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:48,920
Speaker 2: where if you would bet it early in the week

80
00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,200
Speaker 2: on Utah to lay the points, you won your ticket.

81
00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 2: If you bet late in the week, you lost it

82
00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 2: because it was the difference between Utah minus six and

83
00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,280
Speaker 2: a half and minus seven and a half in a

84
00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,040
Speaker 2: seven point win. So yeah, that's what we're trying to

85
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,280
Speaker 2: do here is just take a couple more convert a

86
00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,920
Speaker 2: couple potential losing tickets late in the week into winning

87
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:06,880
Speaker 2: tickets by getting it early.

88
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,960
Speaker 1: All right, well, perfect transition. Let's get into these bad boys.

89
00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 1: Let's start breaking down these games, giving you an early

90
00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,120
Speaker 1: look and where some of these advantages can take place.

91
00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:17,800
Speaker 1: Let's kick it over to Saturday. Got a lot of

92
00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:19,240
Speaker 1: the rank stuff. At the end, we are going to

93
00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:22,440
Speaker 1: look at a few other adjustments compared to the early

94
00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,440
Speaker 1: lines versus Thor's adjusted line, maybe some other games that

95
00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 1: Thor is kind of in on. But we're going to

96
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:28,520
Speaker 1: start with a lot of the big ones. And we've

97
00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,200
Speaker 1: got three and zero rut Curs going up against going

98
00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,760
Speaker 1: into the week number two Michigan, who's also three and zero.

99
00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 1: There's a little bit of a discrepancy on your line

100
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,680
Speaker 1: versus the spread, which might equate to a little bit

101
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,480
Speaker 1: of value. But you tell me if about a point

102
00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,560
Speaker 1: and a half of value is worthwhile betting on Michigan.

103
00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,080
Speaker 2: For me, I wouldn't. Yeah, I mean my ad justed line,

104
00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,720
Speaker 2: like you're mentioning, it's Michigan minus twenty five point nine.

105
00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 2: But where that that's the correct way to set that line.

106
00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:00,360
Speaker 2: I think initially putting it over that twenty four, I mean, like, yeah,

107
00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,640
Speaker 2: theoretical maybe point and a half of line value for Michigan,

108
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,320
Speaker 2: but it's not over a key number. I'm probably not

109
00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,840
Speaker 2: gonna end up betting that game, just because Rutgers has

110
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,960
Speaker 2: looked better than we we've thought so far, and they

111
00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,640
Speaker 2: were a team that interested me over the offseason because

112
00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 2: we knew they had good running backs, we knew they

113
00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,640
Speaker 2: had a solid offensive line, and their defense has been

114
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,360
Speaker 2: good since Schiano got back there. It was just like,

115
00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:30,039
Speaker 2: is Gavin Wimset going to be Arthur Sikowski two, except

116
00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,560
Speaker 2: with with mobility and Wimset has been a bit better

117
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,920
Speaker 2: this year certainly than We've been way better this year

118
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,200
Speaker 2: than he was last year. But last year he was unplayable.

119
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,920
Speaker 2: So that makes Rutgers a bit more viable. Michigan, they've

120
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,640
Speaker 2: been They've played their procession of Patsy's in the non conference,

121
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,120
Speaker 2: and you know, Jim Harbaugh was off. Now Jim Harbaugh

122
00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,600
Speaker 2: going to be coming back. Uh. I you know, I

123
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,280
Speaker 2: don't know that that matters much. Last week, some people were,

124
00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:57,440
Speaker 2: you know, getting on Michigan a little bit for not

125
00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,680
Speaker 2: crushing Bowling Green by more points. Uh. McCarthy to start

126
00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,040
Speaker 2: out that game had had a little bit of struggles.

127
00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,920
Speaker 2: He threw an interception and whatnot. But you're just you're

128
00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,440
Speaker 2: just playing around with bulling Green because you're about to

129
00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,560
Speaker 2: get into the Big Ten schedule. So I that's when

130
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:12,480
Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch right now.

131
00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,159
Speaker 1: There's nothing that could like adjust or there's nothing that

132
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,040
Speaker 1: could happen that's going to get you in on that game.

133
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,039
Speaker 2: You don't think, uh, if it got to I mean,

134
00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,440
Speaker 2: this would have to be a lot. But if I mean,

135
00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,359
Speaker 2: if it's somehow got up to a Rutger, you know,

136
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,680
Speaker 2: if I could get twenty eight with Rutgers kickoff, That's

137
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,800
Speaker 2: what I'd be looking to do. But I just don't

138
00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,839
Speaker 2: know that I want to lay that many points with

139
00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:36,880
Speaker 2: Michigan against a team in this Rutgers team that plays tough.

140
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,480
Speaker 2: They like I said, have a good defense, and they're

141
00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,440
Speaker 2: trying to shorten the game and that's sort of Michigan's

142
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,480
Speaker 2: prerogative too. So I yeah, it's just one that I

143
00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,200
Speaker 2: wouldn't touch right now. I think Rutgers is better than

144
00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,200
Speaker 2: you know. Then we've come accustomed to these last several years.

145
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,080
Speaker 1: All right, moving on to the next and this is

146
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,160
Speaker 1: going to be a really interesting one. I'm going to

147
00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,480
Speaker 1: be interested to hear your take you've got going into

148
00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,760
Speaker 1: last week. Week three's number seventeen Ole Miss. We got

149
00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,159
Speaker 1: to wait for the new rankings. Going up against number

150
00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:06,240
Speaker 1: ten Alabama, the spreads open up at a touchdown. Your

151
00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:10,800
Speaker 1: line does not speak to the same and Alabama is

152
00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,640
Speaker 1: playing some not good football, right, some uninspired football, and

153
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,960
Speaker 1: your adjusted line kind of tells that story. I'm looking here.

154
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 1: This might be the biggest differential as far as what

155
00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 1: we capped on the big games here Thor of what

156
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,640
Speaker 1: the thor adjusted line compared to what Vegas is putting out.

157
00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:34,760
Speaker 1: So you're gonna bet against Bama for sure?

158
00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,080
Speaker 2: Again, Yeah, I mean it's yeah, it is bet against

159
00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,240
Speaker 2: Bama season, you know. And I talked about this over

160
00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,160
Speaker 2: the summer that Bama is going to be an early

161
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 2: season and maybe even full season fade. My biggest ticket

162
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:49,200
Speaker 2: in the futures market is Alabama under ten and a

163
00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,680
Speaker 2: half wins, which if Selflora played just a little bit

164
00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,400
Speaker 2: better in that game, we'd already be home on that one.

165
00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,840
Speaker 2: We only need one more Alabama loss and we're home

166
00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:02,400
Speaker 2: on that one. Has Even like I was the lowest

167
00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,120
Speaker 2: probably on Alabama of anybody out there this summer, they've

168
00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,080
Speaker 2: been even worse than I thought they were going to be.

169
00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 2: And the stuff that we talked about was over the

170
00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,320
Speaker 2: summer was their offensive line wasn't great last year. It

171
00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,600
Speaker 2: hadn't improved over the offseason. Same thing with the receiving corps,

172
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,000
Speaker 2: which stunk last year. Then brought in anybody to augment that,

173
00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,520
Speaker 2: and then it's like you lose Jamior Gibbs at the

174
00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 2: running back position, you have downgraded there, and then they

175
00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,880
Speaker 2: don't have a quarterback. The reason they went out and

176
00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,400
Speaker 2: signed Tyler Buckner in I think April is right around

177
00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 2: when the draft was happening. It was because it was

178
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:36,760
Speaker 2: after spring practices where Ty Simpson and Jalen Milroe have

179
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:40,040
Speaker 2: both badly struggled, and so obviously Nick Saban had brought

180
00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,439
Speaker 2: in Tommy Reese to be the offensive coordinator, the former

181
00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator at Notre Dame. So Tommy called up is

182
00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,760
Speaker 2: his old pal Tyler Buckner, who had lost his job

183
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,480
Speaker 2: because Notre Dame signed Sam Hartman of course earlier in

184
00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,240
Speaker 2: the winter, and you know said come on down, you

185
00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:57,240
Speaker 2: can win this job. None of those three guys are

186
00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:01,400
Speaker 2: inspiring options. They're just not like those guys should be

187
00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,280
Speaker 2: starting at low level P five or even high level

188
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,520
Speaker 2: G five. Like in my opinion, that's what Buckner is.

189
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 2: Mill wrote somewhere around there. He should be in a

190
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,640
Speaker 2: different system though, you just don't get the passing element

191
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 2: with him. Simpson might be their best bet going forward,

192
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, like he played a bit you

193
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:22,480
Speaker 2: know yesterday whatnot, and but uh, that one's tough too.

194
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,959
Speaker 2: He was their third option. He's been their third option.

195
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 2: Like he he became the break glass in case of

196
00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 2: emergency guy. And then Alabama defense is down too. So

197
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 2: it's just a tough situation there what we see. I mean,

198
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,040
Speaker 2: maybe yesterday again South Florida was a bit of an aberration.

199
00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 2: That was sort of a weird spot in terms of

200
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,520
Speaker 2: how close that was until late, but the overall struggles

201
00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,480
Speaker 2: this team's absolutely no aberration at all. I expect this

202
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,760
Speaker 2: to be a trend going forward. This game is a

203
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,680
Speaker 2: fire for me right now. With where this line is,

204
00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:58,920
Speaker 2: my line is was it min minus four Fama minus

205
00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:02,079
Speaker 2: four in Tuscaloosa. Right now, the live line is Alabama

206
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,199
Speaker 2: minus seven if you can get if you can get

207
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,920
Speaker 2: seven points of ole Miss, you take that. Ole Miss

208
00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 2: has given Alabama some trouble with better Alabama teams. This

209
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:16,600
Speaker 2: is Lane Kiffin shot now to go into the backyard

210
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:20,680
Speaker 2: of his former mentor, the guy in Nick Saban, who

211
00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:24,600
Speaker 2: was able to rehabilitate Lane Kiffin's image and get him

212
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 2: back into the head coaching industry. Right that's when he

213
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:28,920
Speaker 2: you know, he went down to Florida Atlantic and then

214
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,800
Speaker 2: Ole Miss. Now Kiffin has been very close to being

215
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,280
Speaker 2: able to knock off Saban. I think this is the

216
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,440
Speaker 2: game here and going into Tuscaloosa, and well.

217
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:40,400
Speaker 1: You're leading to what I think everybody wants to know.

218
00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,240
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna ask, you're gonna sprinkle that money line?

219
00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:44,920
Speaker 1: You gonna sprinkle that on this yep?

220
00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:49,079
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, And I want that money line priced around

221
00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,280
Speaker 2: that seven. But even you know, if people out there

222
00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,599
Speaker 2: listen to this and it's already come down, yeah, I

223
00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 2: would still take the point. Still take the money line

224
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 2: wherever it is, cause this, I mean, worth three points

225
00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 2: over what my life is right now. In Alabama, they

226
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 2: are just after ball right now. That's a team who

227
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,439
Speaker 2: is in danger, and Ole Miss is certainly going to

228
00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,920
Speaker 2: be motivated to go in there. Lane Kevin's gonna have

229
00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:10,800
Speaker 2: something ready for Nick.

230
00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,760
Speaker 1: And I can tell you we record this on Sunday

231
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:17,120
Speaker 1: afternoon that line. I see a couple spots where's six

232
00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,280
Speaker 1: and a half already, So you know, make your move.

233
00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,000
Speaker 1: If it's for Justin and it's flying around six and

234
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 1: a half seven, you know, try to get that hook

235
00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:26,520
Speaker 1: when you can, or the opposite end of that hook

236
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:27,840
Speaker 1: so you can get to seven. If you want to

237
00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,680
Speaker 1: play the full spread, maybe you want to live on

238
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,280
Speaker 1: the wild side and go with Lane and play them

239
00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,080
Speaker 1: and play that money line. I know you would. I

240
00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:36,959
Speaker 1: like that's I was excited to ask you. I knew that.

241
00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 1: I like when you go to the Betting Pros app,

242
00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,280
Speaker 1: which you guys should all go and check out. We've

243
00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,520
Speaker 1: talked about it a bunch with a Betting pros tracker,

244
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,000
Speaker 1: download the free Betting Pros app on iOS or Android.

245
00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 1: You can follow your favorite experts like the or top

246
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,120
Speaker 1: rated betters, betters that are on hot streaks, and you

247
00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 1: can get instant notifications when new bets are placed. What

248
00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,560
Speaker 1: I love is you can have the custom notifications which

249
00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,840
Speaker 1: you can get alerts for only like high ROI markets

250
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,880
Speaker 1: that that person bets on. And you can do all

251
00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:07,079
Speaker 1: of this with thor and I tell you every single week,

252
00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,120
Speaker 1: I have a system of a couple things I do.

253
00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,120
Speaker 1: Talk to my buddy Bogman. I read his article that

254
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,640
Speaker 1: comes out on Betting Pros. I read Thor's article. But

255
00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,680
Speaker 1: then right around Friday night, when I'm like dialing in

256
00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,559
Speaker 1: getting comfortable for Saturday, I go on the Betting Pros app.

257
00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 1: I click who I follow, I click Thor, and I

258
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:24,920
Speaker 1: look through what the bets are looking like, and you

259
00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,240
Speaker 1: can see those little sprinkles, and you'll see those money

260
00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,480
Speaker 1: line sprinkles, and I know I'm gonna see that old

261
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,719
Speaker 1: miss one if you guys actually might see it by

262
00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,000
Speaker 1: the time that you're listening, so that line doesn't move

263
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,319
Speaker 1: too much. So go to your app store today and

264
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 1: you can download the Betting Pros app and get locked

265
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 1: in with all your favorite people.

266
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: I'm furiously logging into all my books right now. Well,

267
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,320
Speaker 2: just see if I can find a seven out there.

268
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 2: The one I got is six and a half that

269
00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 2: it's hung right now, but I'm gonna try to find

270
00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:50,960
Speaker 2: a seven.

271
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:52,599
Speaker 1: We'll see if it moves around. We'll see if it

272
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,559
Speaker 1: moves around. You gotta guys got to get your your

273
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,520
Speaker 1: all set up with your sevens, hopefully not just six

274
00:12:57,559 --> 00:12:58,840
Speaker 1: and a half, or if it moves down. That's the

275
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,720
Speaker 1: other danger, is yeah going to be oh man, never mind.

276
00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,520
Speaker 1: I've been saying, like, is there a world where the

277
00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,600
Speaker 1: line comes down where you are betting Bama? But if

278
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:09,480
Speaker 1: we're sprinkling the money line and all of this, it's

279
00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,320
Speaker 1: it's not work, don't Yeah, we're out.

280
00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,199
Speaker 2: No, even even if that thing got to three and

281
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,920
Speaker 2: a half, Like I don't want to lay points with

282
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,319
Speaker 2: Bama against a really good team, like I don't like

283
00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,760
Speaker 2: this Bama team. I don't. And and there's a lot

284
00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,160
Speaker 2: of different ways the game scripts can go where all

285
00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 2: of a sudden Bama becomes feeball, like depending on the

286
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,880
Speaker 2: quarterback who's in right, like with Milroe, if Alabama, you know,

287
00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,240
Speaker 2: if they're playing from ahead, it's it's one way and

288
00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,200
Speaker 2: he can do that. But if they come for you know,

289
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,360
Speaker 2: if it's playing from behind, it's the opposite. They're impotent

290
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,920
Speaker 2: in that thing with the other two kids. You're concerned

291
00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 2: about is the pressure right, Like you can augment and

292
00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:48,760
Speaker 2: maybe this is why they went with Milroe out of

293
00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:52,200
Speaker 2: the gate. You can sort of protect your or inoculate

294
00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,800
Speaker 2: yourself to a degree from the offensive line struggles with

295
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,680
Speaker 2: Milroe's mobility. But then you totally lose the passing element

296
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,640
Speaker 2: with the other two guys. They are not terrible, they're

297
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 2: much better passers, but they are not great under pressure.

298
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,680
Speaker 2: We see that with I mean South Florida was getting

299
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,600
Speaker 2: after those guys you know, and sack both of them.

300
00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I'm not betting Bama in this game.

301
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 2: We're we're all over.

302
00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,880
Speaker 1: It now, full miss wins Bama. Twitter is going to

303
00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:22,760
Speaker 1: be a It's gonna be a whirlwind, a tornado of bad,

304
00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 1: bad takes that are gonna be going now.

305
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:25,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna call my booky with that ten and a

306
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,160
Speaker 2: half ticket on Bama the under and say pay me,

307
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:29,080
Speaker 2: my just.

308
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,320
Speaker 1: Pay it now. Gosh it now all right, let's go

309
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 1: over to a couple other We got a lot of

310
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,000
Speaker 1: like rank versus ranked games this week. Going in UCLA

311
00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,120
Speaker 1: was rinked twenty fourth going off against number twelve Utah.

312
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 1: Both teams are three and zero and we have around

313
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,200
Speaker 1: two and a half points of value. It looks like

314
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 1: on Utah according to the adjusted line for you thor so,

315
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:51,600
Speaker 1: is this gonna be something you want to smash before

316
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:52,760
Speaker 1: this line starts moving?

317
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,680
Speaker 2: What do you think the only thing is looking into

318
00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:02,240
Speaker 2: see if we got any shot on on Keithy and Risey,

319
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 2: you know they I mean so far, they're they're three

320
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,520
Speaker 2: and oher with those guys. Uh, it's always the case

321
00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,800
Speaker 2: where you feel better if if they play, but we

322
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,320
Speaker 2: just don't know when they're gonna come back. But yeah,

323
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,320
Speaker 2: I mean I think either way with where that line is,

324
00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 2: I think I'd be on on YouTube just be more

325
00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,160
Speaker 2: comfortable if them guys were playing. But you know your

326
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,120
Speaker 2: issue here for UCLA and UCLA a team that I

327
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,160
Speaker 2: was more bullish on. I I have an over on

328
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:26,840
Speaker 2: the eight or eight and a half whatever it was

329
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 2: in the in the preseason whatnot. And they're a very

330
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 2: interesting team with Dante more there. But it's like all

331
00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 2: because all the other positions outside of quarterback had improved, well,

332
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 2: I guess running back to an extent as well. But

333
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 2: you know it's just they basically lost dcr and then

334
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 2: sharping it, but everybody else came back whatnot, and you

335
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 2: were just wondering what was going to go on with

336
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,240
Speaker 2: the quarterback room. They they did okay in the running

337
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,400
Speaker 2: back room, bringing in Carson Steele, you know, and then

338
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,760
Speaker 2: you had Harden coming back whatnot. But uh, Moore's in there.

339
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 2: But now you have this situation where even though More

340
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 2: is super talented, More is gonna play in the NFL someday,

341
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 2: Like that kid is super duper talented. But now you're

342
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 2: in what is this his second college start, and you

343
00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 2: have to go and play a road game at Utah

344
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 2: against that ridiculous defense it I mean, like Utah's offense

345
00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 2: until Rising and Keithy come back, they just have to

346
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 2: manufacture stuff. So you know that's what the fear is, right,

347
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 2: But like Dante Moore against that Utah defense on the road,

348
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 2: that that's where it gets kind of tough for me.

349
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, like if I can lay less than six

350
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 2: with Utah, That's what I'm looking to do in that game,

351
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,560
Speaker 2: regardless of the statuses of Rising and Kithy, but feel

352
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:35,800
Speaker 2: way better if we had them.

353
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 1: If it's at six, are you gonna play Ucla? Because

354
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 1: I'm already seeing six like this early, like this much

355
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,280
Speaker 1: of an alane, So are will you lay six with

356
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 1: the UCLA or like what side are you going to

357
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 1: take out with Utah?

358
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:48,120
Speaker 2: With Utah?

359
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:49,600
Speaker 1: Okay, but I didn't know if you would go on

360
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 1: the other side because I know you were comfortable under

361
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 1: six with Utah.

362
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 2: Is it still comfortable with Utah six? I just I

363
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 2: mean like for it to be the only way I

364
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,120
Speaker 2: get around on Ucla. And this one is if if

365
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 2: I got seven with the Hawk, I would need seven

366
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 2: and a half to go the other way. Yeah, again

367
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,919
Speaker 2: just because of my trepidations with more in Utah. But

368
00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 2: if if either were, especially if Rising was back, then

369
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 2: I wouldn't take the seven and a half with Ucla.

370
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 2: Then I go all the way up to ten on

371
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,360
Speaker 2: that one with Utah or whatever. But yeah, we're still

372
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 2: going to lay it here, guys. I think Dante More

373
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:24,960
Speaker 2: is going to turn the ball over a couple times

374
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:25,360
Speaker 2: in that game.

375
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:26,520
Speaker 1: Are there's going to be a big inin This is

376
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:30,199
Speaker 1: our final of the like morning after like early afternoon games.

377
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 1: This is everyone's gonna have their eyes on it. It's

378
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,880
Speaker 1: Colorado and Orgon. Colorado came in eighteenth, organ was thirteenth.

379
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 1: They're both three and zero. There's a little bit of value,

380
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,160
Speaker 1: but there are injuries in Colorado. Their defense played like garbage.

381
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 1: Colorado's did it really had to? I mean, so Door

382
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 1: just you know played it up at the second half, obviously,

383
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 1: but you know this is still a big line your

384
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,680
Speaker 1: system is still in favor of more value. But I mean,

385
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 1: do you want to touch this right now? With the

386
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,680
Speaker 1: Hunter injury and everything going on. It's nineteen I think

387
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,200
Speaker 1: your system has around twenty one.

388
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:03,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I've been in on Colorado. I bet

389
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 2: on on each game so far, so we're two and

390
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,199
Speaker 2: one against the spread. But you know, we cast some

391
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 2: money line tickets and whatnot. This is the game where

392
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 2: I can't you know, and maybe I should have gotten

393
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,880
Speaker 2: off the island last week, but I like that Magic

394
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 2: of Colorado stage just played really well. But this game,

395
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 2: there's no value on Colorado. This is the first game

396
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 2: of the season where my system is not showing value

397
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 2: on them. You mentioned that my line on that game

398
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 2: was Oregon minus twenty one and a half, and if

399
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,120
Speaker 2: you bake in the Travis Hunter injury, it's a little

400
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 2: bit above that. Like, you know, I might be toggling

401
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 2: that thing closer to twenty four. Oregon has looked really,

402
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 2: really good this year, and you know, I love this

403
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,199
Speaker 2: Colorado team. But again, you know, like we were mentioning

404
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 2: at the top, you lose or Dion mentioned last night,

405
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,679
Speaker 2: you lose Travis Hunter. You're losing two stars, right, there

406
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 2: and Colorado is a couple other injuries to keep an

407
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 2: eye on the current updates on those, you know Slusher,

408
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,360
Speaker 2: they need to see if they can get Slusher back.

409
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,880
Speaker 2: That nickel defender. He's been out with an undisclosed injury.

410
00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 2: Mcasko ain't going to be back for this thing, but

411
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 2: they've they've been able to make do without him. But yeah,

412
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 2: the big injury there is Travis Hunter. I you know,

413
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 2: under twenty. I just don't think you can bet Colorado here,

414
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 2: you know, even where the number is, you know, like

415
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 2: it would have I just don't think Colorado's about this week.

416
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was you said nineteen. I even see

417
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,959
Speaker 1: some eighteens that are going out there, so you know,

418
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a sinking ship. As far

419
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: as how fun it's been to bet Colorado, this will

420
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,880
Speaker 1: probably be the biggest test to see how competitive they're

421
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,400
Speaker 1: going to be against a team like organ. I mean,

422
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 1: this is a huge, huge matchup that we've got going down.

423
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,240
Speaker 1: Went our mind. Everybody that to subscribe to the Betting

424
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel, hit subscribe so you're notified any time

425
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 1: we're live. Because there are some incredible shows that are

426
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,479
Speaker 1: going down here with Thor. You've got Thor, Mike Ferrell,

427
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 1: and Scott Bogman on Wednesdays that are taking a look

428
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,479
Speaker 1: at the slate. And then jump in on Saturday mornings

429
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 1: where Thor and Mike are rocking. All your questions. Best

430
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 1: bet Thor's hammer, where's Farrell's fade? You got all of that?

431
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 1: That is ten a m Eastern correct.

432
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 2: Yes, ten am Eastern, two eleven thirty eastern.

433
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,239
Speaker 1: Look at me rock in the right time. Just got

434
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 1: to get that implanted in the system, my friend. But

435
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: make sure that you guys are subscribed so you're notified

436
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: when they go live, because you don't want to miss it.

437
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: You want to have the best edge you can when

438
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 1: making your bets in college football. For week four, all right,

439
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: let's go to the afternoon games. We're going to jump

440
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 1: in to Arkansas. Arkansas two and one going up against

441
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 1: what which was number fourteen LSU. LSU's two and one.

442
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 1: There's a little bit of line value LSU. I think

443
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,479
Speaker 1: it end up being a really good bet this past weekend.

444
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,679
Speaker 1: So you've talked to me about where the bet is

445
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: if there's a bet LSU Arkansas.

446
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 2: So my line is LSU minus fifteen point nine but

447
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 2: it's not factoring in the Rocket Sanders injury. That's why

448
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 2: this thing is seventeen and a half in the market.

449
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 2: I think that's a fair line. Arkansas without Rocket Sanders.

450
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: I mean, you've seen it yesterday against BYU where it

451
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 2: sort of becomes a one man show with kJ Jefferson

452
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 2: on that offense and kJ Jefferson like he's he's solid.

453
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 2: You know, he's a solid player. He's an interesting player,

454
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 2: but he's not one of those guys that can do

455
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: it on his own right, Like he's the big load

456
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 2: as a runner. But if you don't have Rocket Sanders

457
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: there for the defense to be afraid of, and like,

458
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 2: it just becomes straightforward. And then kJ Jefferson's always has

459
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: never been an elite passer. We're still waiting for him

460
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: to make the jump up as a passer. And so

461
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,239
Speaker 2: it's tough for Arkansas to flip their game script like

462
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 2: we're just gonna throw in this game. We're gonna we're

463
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 2: gonna throw throw a throw, because you would be concerned

464
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: about Jefferson putting it up that many times. Whatever LSU defense,

465
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: which badly, of course, struggled in the game everyone watched

466
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 2: against Florida State. I watched all the game yesterday against

467
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 2: Mississippi State. That LSU defense as way way better in

468
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 2: that game. Now, of course it's you know, you're playing

469
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 2: Missippi States offense that was switching from you know, is

470
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 2: in that transition from the air raid too, that RPO

471
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: more run heavy type system whatever. But LSU totally got

472
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 2: after them in that one. And one of the encouraging things,

473
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 2: you know, like a micro sort of thing as far

474
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 2: as that goes, is initially the usage of Harold Perkins

475
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 2: this year. It got criticism and deservedly so, you know,

476
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 2: playing them as an off ball linebacker, keeping them away

477
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 2: from the ball. Sometimes they'd be lining them up like

478
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 2: ten yards away from the ball and different stuff like that.

479
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 2: When you wanted to see Perkins unleash more. Yesterday, I

480
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: thought their usage of him was way more interesting, and

481
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 2: so maybe they're starting to get it. They they're still

482
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 2: moving him around, and some people would nitpick that and

483
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 2: just say keep him on the edge every single play

484
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: and just attack, attack, attack. But some of the things

485
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: they were doing with Harold Perkins yesterday, he was giving

486
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 2: them value in things outside of that, which before it

487
00:22:59,920 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 2: was just taking value away. The further you're moving them

488
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 2: away from the ball. One of the really interesting things

489
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 2: I thought they did with him yesterday. They were so

490
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 2: mission be State was trying to do all these will

491
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 2: Rodgers does not have a ton of arm strength. He's

492
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 2: way more comfortable with those quick hitters. Missus B State

493
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 2: was trying to manufacture offense by doing these quick hitting

494
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: throw us to the outside, you know, the slot guy whatever,

495
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 2: screens as well, you know, on the outside, different stuff

496
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 2: like that. LSU sent Harold Perkins out to become the

497
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 2: nickel defender to shut that down. They're like, no, you're

498
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 2: not gonna do that. And so now all of a sudden,

499
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: Missippi State couldn't gain yards there right like Perkins would

500
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: either to break the thing up right away. You know.

501
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 2: It's because it's not like running downfield and coverage with

502
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 2: your back to the quarterback. You see everything right in

503
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 2: front of you. It's a concept that goes second after

504
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 2: the snab or whatever. And if the guy corralled the ball,

505
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: Perkins nailed him right away. So Perkins just took that away.

506
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 2: If you're gonna make Harold Perkins, you're gonna do that

507
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: thing of like we're gonna move him around We're gonna

508
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 2: make him a shot. That's what you want him doing.

509
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 2: Whatever the offense wants to do. Uh huh, No, Harold's

510
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,719
Speaker 2: gonna shut that thing down and then you move them

511
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 2: to the addresser when when you have to whatnot. That's

512
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 2: something to keep an eye on going forward. They squeeze

513
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 2: a lot more value out of Perkins yesterday. But this

514
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 2: one for me because of that rocket Sanders injury, Hank

515
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: going to be back this week for me, even though

516
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 2: my system was showing that because you know, both teams

517
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: have full strength for me, this one to be lsu

518
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 2: were pass.

519
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 1: Okay, PAC twelve, we've got two top twenty five teams

520
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: both three and oho Oregon State Washington State. Not a

521
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: whole lot of difference between initial line and what your

522
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: system has it. Is there a bet you want to

523
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 1: take in this PAC twelve action?

524
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 2: This this one's tough. Yeah, my line being Oregon State

525
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: minus three point seven. But the caveat I need to

526
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 2: give to everyone out there is Washington State in POLM.

527
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 2: I've said this on pass shows in Pullman, one of

528
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 2: the best home against the spread records over the last decade.

529
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,360
Speaker 2: Very very very difficult. Excuse excuse me, very very difficult

530
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 2: place to play. So it is cor Vallas, you know.

531
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: I mean, if this thing was flipped around, it it

532
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 2: be sort of the other way we seen Washington State

533
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 2: ambush was Johnson a couple of weeks ago, and WAZU

534
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,479
Speaker 2: is they've been way better to this point than I

535
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 2: thought that they would be. This one is it's really

536
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: close to the margins. If you like Oregon State, this

537
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 2: SI probably the time to bet it. But I will

538
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 2: also understand if a lot of people are on the

539
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 2: home dog this week with Wazoo because they're live, you

540
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: know for sure. I just don't think I'll be able

541
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,679
Speaker 2: to bet this one, But it's one where I'll be

542
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 2: early in the week at least. It's one that I'll

543
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: spend the week handicap and see if I can find anything.

544
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 2: But right now, I don't see the line value there.

545
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: Game of the Week with top two top ten teams

546
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 1: Ohio State Notre Dame. The line opened up at three

547
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 1: and a half. I see it around two and a half.

548
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: Your system has it as a pick them seven to

549
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 1: zero combined record between these two teams. Marvin Harrison Junior

550
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: is the most electric college football player when you watch

551
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: them in open field.

552
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 2: It is.

553
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: It's not fair. So OSU minus two and a half

554
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 1: to three and a half. Somewhere in the books you

555
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 1: see as a pick them, Do you avoid? Do you

556
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: just jump right in? Where are you playing it?

557
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: This is one? Well, let me let me go the

558
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 2: opposite on this one, and I'll give you my my take,

559
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: my and my handicap and then we'll hit the line,

560
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 2: you know, project of the line movement. I like Notre

561
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 2: Dame in this game, and so for me, if I

562
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: can get oh, you know, three and a half right now,

563
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: I'm taking that. My system says this game is a

564
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 2: coin flip it as Ohio State minus zero point six points,

565
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 2: so right there in coin flip plan, I think Notre

566
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 2: Dame's winning this game. I don't like this Ohio State

567
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,719
Speaker 2: team a ton, you know, like I still have questions

568
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 2: about their quarterback play. I don't care about last week

569
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,239
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky's defense stinks. This year they lost everybody like

570
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 2: we knew that Ohio State was going to tear them up.

571
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 2: I'm not changing my opinion on Ohio State based on that.

572
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: The team whose opinion I changed on over the summer

573
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,479
Speaker 2: with Notre Dame. When Notre Dame went out and got Hartman,

574
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 2: and then you know, their defense all three levels arguably

575
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: top fifteen, top maybe even top ten units in the nation,

576
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 2: and they have the secondary to you know, nobody's gonna

577
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 2: shut down Marvin Harrison totally, but they at least got

578
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,199
Speaker 2: the guys back there where you can address Harrison and Buca,

579
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: et cetera. And the offensive line for Ohio State, the

580
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 2: lost three NFL guys, they're gonna have their hands fall here,

581
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 2: you know, against that Notre Dame front seven. We'll have

582
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 2: to see how that goes. And and but they're gonna

583
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: have to hold up because I don't trust McCort as

584
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: far as I can throw them if he's under durest

585
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 2: this whole game. And then you got to throw into

586
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 2: that Notre Dame secondary. So yeah, I mean, for me,

587
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: this one's Notre Dame. But the thing early in the week,

588
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 2: when you're betting these things, you're also it's not just

589
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: your opinion on the game, you're also sort of playing

590
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 2: a pop psychologist with the market, because like, even though

591
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 2: I like Notre Dame, do what you know is this line,

592
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 2: could this line get to four? I'd like it a

593
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: lot more if it was four, like it a lot

594
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 2: more even more than that if it was four and

595
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: a half. So it becomes like, do you fire now

596
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 2: right thinking the market's gonna bett in Ohio state early

597
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 2: in the way, can you get a little more value

598
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 2: or is it you know or you know that the

599
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 2: other way around you? Do you wait for that or

600
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 2: do you fire now? Because you're projecting that people are

601
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 2: going to be on Notre Dame as the home dog,

602
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 2: and three and a half obviously a way more advantageous

603
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 2: number than three, So you're really on the margins here

604
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 2: and playing pop psychologists. But probably the way I'll do

605
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 2: it personally, as you know, fire a you know, half

606
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 2: of a unit or something like that on you know,

607
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 2: like on Notre Dame now, and then sprinkle a little

608
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: bit on on the their buddy line right now as well.

609
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: And then if that thing we get it up, you know,

610
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 2: then then I'll be playing in another unit bet if

611
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: I can get more value on it, but else, but

612
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 2: just close the loop if not, if it stays the

613
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 2: same number, you know, we'll just add to where we

614
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: would have been initially in terms of the dollar amount.

615
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: And I was going to ask about it, like you

616
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: were going to hit money line. So that's a great

617
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: breakdown of where you're going to go with it. Next

618
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: game up the line in your system or lockstep Iowa

619
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: versus number seven Penn State are coming in number seven

620
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: Penn State. I was locked into that Penn State game

621
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: because I bet them, and Penn State looked garbage. They

622
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: just did not look good. It was crazy how ineffective

623
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: their offense was. So you see a line like this,

624
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: I'm curious at where you're gonna take this one because

625
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: it could have been a letdown situation whatever. But I

626
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: was thoroughly unimpressed with Penn State. But Iowa, Penn State,

627
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: where's the bet? Is there a bet?

628
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we did it. I'm getting the cover in that one. Yeah,

629
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 2: with Penn State, and well, James Franklin always helps with that.

630
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: He James Franklin's always looking after our best interest when

631
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: when we buy a ticket in Penn State. But yeah,

632
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: like initially, especially first half, I was with, Yeah, I

633
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 2: would have liked to Penn State's offense to be a

634
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: bit more aggressive in the way that Kansas's was. The

635
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 2: week the friday before when they played Illinois, that Illinois

636
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 2: defense just lost so much talent, and then you have

637
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 2: all these new faces, and it's like if you have

638
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 2: the ability to put those you know, for instance, what

639
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: Kansas did the whole game. They put the safeties into

640
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 2: conflict every single play, right, and so like you had

641
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 2: these new safeties that were like uh uh uh, and

642
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, one false step, you got

643
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: a one on one shot down the field, you know,

644
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 2: or the other way, and now the intermediate's open. Whatnot.

645
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: They were just confusing those safeties all afternoon. I would

646
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 2: have liked Penn Sate to do a little bit more

647
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 2: of that. They still were able to get, you know,

648
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 2: not only the win the against the spread wind. The

649
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 2: thing that you were impressed with was their defense. Although

650
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 2: we've talked about the Illinois offense where it can just

651
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: evolve into Altmeyer running around stuff like that. This is

652
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 2: a very interesting game. Iowa has historically done, at least

653
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 2: in recent history, pretty decent going to Happy Valley on

654
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 2: these white out night games. Some teams really struggle with that.

655
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 2: Iowa does not, you know, like, you know, the the

656
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: atmosphere in Kinnick, that the night games, it's sort of

657
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: the same thing. Iowa doesn't really care about that sort

658
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: of stuff, and they're going to force teams to play

659
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: their game, which if you're an underdog playing Iowa you

660
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: love because they sort of drag you up, you know,

661
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: like you know, and and the game becomes closer. But

662
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: the favorite tas you know, the heavy favorites, the double

663
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: digita favorites, those are the ones that had to be

664
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: more concerned because you're not gonna be able to roll

665
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 2: out your whole offense. And there's another data point for

666
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 2: why I would have preferred Penn State to be doing

667
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 2: more stuff early on first fall season of ALR when

668
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 2: you're playing a defense that can be had deep and

669
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: different stuff like that rip, ripping some of those throws. Whatnot?

670
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: See what all layers got because next week we might

671
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 2: need that. Iowa's defense is really really, really good. Now,

672
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: obviously the offensive and their special team is really good too.

673
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,719
Speaker 2: Up up until this past week, the offense have been

674
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 2: an issue. They put up some points on Western Michigan.

675
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: The thing I thought was funny is the Farans have

676
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: the Farances. They've always been, you know, sort of anti

677
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: James Franklin in terms of being pretty classy as far

678
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 2: as kneeling the ball out at the end of games.

679
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 2: Like sometimes it would frustrate because they kneel it out

680
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 2: at the one, like literally one yard line, if you know,

681
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: if they could get it down there. But now Brian

682
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: Ferrence is going the other way. Brian Farrens punched in

683
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 2: at a touchdown late against West Michigan, which infuriated me even

684
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: though you know, big Iowa fan, because that's what lost

685
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 2: me my underticket would seem like a lock that entire afternoon.

686
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: But Brian Farrens is like, no, I got to get

687
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 2: to three hundred twenty five points to keep my job,

688
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 2: so they punched a touchdown in I'm still concerned about

689
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 2: that Iowa offense. My systems right around where this line is.

690
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 2: But for me, this one would be Iowa or stay

691
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 2: away if that number is fourteen or above, just because

692
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: of how good that defense is, They're going to be

693
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 2: able to get Penn State's offense and problems, and I

694
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,479
Speaker 2: think that one skews closer, you know, as far as

695
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: the end result.

696
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 1: Do you think the under might be in play in

697
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: that game too, which is how just piss poor Penn

698
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: State was Again, it could have been a look ahead

699
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: situation like I don't think I could bet I would

700
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: be more comfortable with IOWA on this or I just

701
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: wonder if that under is in players trying to look

702
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: for it. I don't see the early I don't know

703
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: if you have early one on it.

704
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: The number I'm seeing is forty point five. So the yeah,

705
00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: the book makers and the early betters out there in

706
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 2: the market have already put that tax on you if

707
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 2: you want to go under. I think that's a Honestly,

708
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 2: I think that's fair. My system total in that one

709
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 2: is forty three points, so it's just hard to feel

710
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 2: like you're getting value on that early in the week whatnot.

711
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 2: I definitely wouldn't bet the over, I'll put it that way,

712
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 2: but I would have liked to have seen a different

713
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 2: number dropped to give me value going under. I mean,

714
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 2: even if that thing had been forty five coming out

715
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 2: the gate, forty five and a half, ideally we would

716
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 2: have been under today, you know, we would have been

717
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 2: buying the ticket. But at the forty and a half thing,

718
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 2: for me, that's a stay away early in the week.

719
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: All Right, We've got one more on the big slate,

720
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: and then we've got a smaller look at some games

721
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: that interest thor or have some potential really fun line

722
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: change going on UCF who is three and l going

723
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: up against Kansas State who is two and one. And

724
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: this is the second biggest at least of the big

725
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 1: Slate games as far as your line to what publicly

726
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: dropped ic as far as value goes. So what do

727
00:33:59,200 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: you think in this one?

728
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 2: Yeah? And first let me close the loop on on

729
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: the Penn State A game really quick because I should

730
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: mention Luke Lach the by far Iowa's best receiving target,

731
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 2: the tight end. He's uh suffered a leg injury yesterday

732
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 2: and the only thing I've been able to find out

733
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 2: about is is out in Definitely it didn't. It didn't

734
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 2: look great, So there's a decent shot he gonna be

735
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 2: out in this game. And then I was also dealing

736
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: with running back injuries right now. Caleb Johnson didn't play

737
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 2: in the last game. He had looked sluggish before that.

738
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: And then the retro freshman. They have jay Sean Patterson

739
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: running back who would look really good the week before.

740
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: He is now nicked up. So they do have Lashawn

741
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 2: there that he had a good game yesterday, went over

742
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 2: one hundred yards against Western Michigan. But if those other

743
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 2: two guys are out, uh La, Shawn, He's gonna have

744
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: to do everything, you know, as far as the running

745
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 2: back touches, and Iowa could be down on on the

746
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 2: receiving weapons if if Luke Lache is out and if

747
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 2: Luke Lache is out looked for the overs on Eric

748
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,839
Speaker 2: all props when that comes out, because Ioa always throws

749
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 2: at the tight end if he's not there, I had

750
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: to close the loop on that one. As far as

751
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 2: Kansas State and the UCF one, right, that's what yeah, yeah, yeah,

752
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 2: So seven is what I'm seeing out there in the

753
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: market right now. My opening line on that is is

754
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 2: Kansas State. Mine is four point seven for me. If

755
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,320
Speaker 2: you're getting UCF with seven points there, that's a fire today.

756
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: I was on Kansas State last weekend on Saturday. I

757
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 2: made a mistake. I thought this Kansas State team was

758
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,959
Speaker 2: a little bit better. I certainly thought the Missouri team

759
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 2: was worse. A Missouri team who their first two games

760
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 2: against Patsy's, their offensive line had badly struggled, Brady Cook

761
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 2: could badly struggled, and all of a suddenly, you know,

762
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 2: the Kansas State coming into town. They cleaned that up

763
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 2: and Brady Cook played actually pretty cud like you know

764
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: I was. I was pretty impressed with him. But the

765
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: offensive line played way better too. So you're wondering about

766
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: Kansas State. Then, you know a team that you know,

767
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: you have the foundation there now with climbing, a really

768
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: good developer, stuff like that, but they had lost some

769
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 2: star power over the offseason. The felix I still don't

770
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 2: know how to say, is that the addresser that went

771
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: to Kansas City in the first round. You lose that

772
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: with add rush. They had lost a couple of cornerbacks,

773
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: Julius Brents being the big one and whatnot, and then

774
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 2: of course their belcow on offense induced vun So you

775
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 2: know you're sort of wondering about that. But you know,

776
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 2: they were a ranked team top twenty heading into last week.

777
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: And Will Howard got nicked up in that game, So

778
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 2: that's that's something you're gonna want to look at. I

779
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 2: think he was able to finish it out, but they

780
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 2: were putting in that Avery Johnson kid to scramble around more.

781
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 2: But they don't trust either the four star at quarterback.

782
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 2: They don't trust him to throw yet. So I mean, like,

783
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 2: if Howard is depreciated at all, or if he comes

784
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 2: out of the game, it's just going to turn into

785
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 2: Avery Johnson scrambling around whatnot. I actually like this UCF team.

786
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 2: I think this UCS team is pretty good. They have

787
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 2: a ton of speed and they stress you on the perimeter.

788
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 2: The only thing you're concerned about on that side is

789
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:03,439
Speaker 2: John Rice Plumb as always is injured, so he gonna

790
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: be out for this game, and so you know, you

791
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 2: just have to sort of gauge that on that side.

792
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 2: But I love their their team speed, and I'm a

793
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 2: little bit trouble with what I see of Kansas State.

794
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: So like I said, get you know, especially at seven

795
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 2: and a half, I you know, i'd be taking UC up.

796
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 2: But even out of seven, I you know, buying that

797
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: ticket as well.

798
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: Probably all right, So we've got I got two sets here.

799
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 1: These are these smaller games that have some potential line

800
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 1: chains that are showing line change that are of interest.

801
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do two groups of three. I'm gonna give

802
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: them to you first up. These were actually ones that

803
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 1: you and I beforehand we're kind of talking about. Some

804
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,919
Speaker 1: others were just me perusing the thor system You've got

805
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: BYU Kansas, I see around five points of thor adjusted

806
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 1: line value. Arizona Stamford we've got over two points, and

807
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern Ball State has four and a half points

808
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: of line value. You don't have to hit every single

809
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: one if you want. I wanted to throw those out here,

810
00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: but pick apart those three as you would like. BYU Canansas, Arizona, Stanford,

811
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern Ball State.

812
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, when you're you're telling people that there's five

813
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 2: points of line value that b YU Kansas game, they're

814
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 2: they're probably like, oh Nis Trom's got Kansas minus two touchdowns. No,

815
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: it's the other way I got. I got value on

816
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 2: BYU in that one. Even though you know I'm the

817
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: biggest Rockshot homer in the world. I was a little surprised,

818
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: honestly with how high that that line dropped. And maybe

819
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 2: it's because the bookmakers didn't stay up late last night

820
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 2: watching the Kansas Nenvata game, or maybe they were had

821
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 2: their eyes glued to Colorado Colorado State. Kansas did not

822
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: look great in that game. Now, it was a weird spot.

823
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,959
Speaker 2: You know, you had to travel back the time zone

824
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 2: or two depend is Reno. Is that a Pacific ors

825
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 2: up Mountain time.

826
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: That's Pacific, right, yeah, when it gets into November, because

827
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: I'm in that like time zoning weirdness. It uh oh,

828
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 1: you know what Vegas might be, God, I don't know

829
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: if it Vegas doesn't falls, you know what Vegas actually

830
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 1: might be mountain standards. So I think that's an hour

831
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: behind you, two behind Eastern.

832
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, either way, super late kickoff, right, especially on

833
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 2: the body club of the Kansas players, and a weird

834
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 2: spot playing the non conum. You know, it's sort of

835
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 2: like the way lesser version of Alabama going to South

836
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 2: Florida was Kansas late last night going to Reno. But

837
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 2: Kansas didn't look great in that game, and maybe it

838
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: was destined to be a flat spot. But you know,

839
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 2: Jalen Daniels, their quarterback, he had looked way better in

840
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 2: the game before that. When he came back against Illinois

841
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,240
Speaker 2: and the receiving corps, they weren't making quite as many players.

842
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 2: There was a couple of drops there, but Daniels specifically,

843
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: and he got nicked up at one point finishing out

844
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 2: the game. You know, I don't think that's gonna be

845
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 2: a problem whatever, but obviously that's a kid whose game

846
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 2: he puts himself in danger sometimes just as far as

847
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 2: like inviting the pass rushers into his grill against Illinois,

848
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: the first round projected guy defensive tackle for Illinois, Newton

849
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 2: Juwan Newton, seemed to have Daniels dead to rights in

850
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 2: the end zone because Daniels sort of invited him in

851
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 2: and then just ran around him. Whatever. But that's something

852
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on. But just as far as

853
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: this spread goes, like I said, I'm surprised BYU coming

854
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 2: off the you know, the upset win over Arkansas, and

855
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,720
Speaker 2: I then you know this game Now all of a sudden,

856
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 2: it's it's eight and a half against a Kansas team

857
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: that just literally barely got Biden Nevada. They needed a

858
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 2: late score in that one to win that game. I

859
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:18,359
Speaker 2: think this line is too high, as much I hate

860
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 2: to say it as a rock Chokalam, at eight and

861
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 2: a half, it is just too high. This thing should

862
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 2: be under seven points. My line on its Kansas minus

863
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: three point seven.

864
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 1: Was there anything else on those other two that you

865
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 1: had specifically brought up? The ball state one the eight

866
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 1: and a half to four, about four and a half

867
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: point differential, Joe, This Georgia Southern, Ball State, Arizona Stanford,

868
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 1: those two. Is there any bet that you would try

869
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 1: to lock in early on either one?

870
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 2: The Yeah, the Georgia Southern. I felt like that line

871
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: was too high. Georgia Southern on the road there at

872
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 2: eight and a half opening my line on it's Georgia

873
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: Southern minus four at ball State, ball State. They lost

874
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 2: guys in the portal this offseason, but they were able

875
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 2: to address you know that, like bringing veterans in at

876
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 2: those key positions whatnot. I don't think the discrepancy of

877
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 2: these two teams is that high. Where you're talking like

878
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 2: double digits on a neutral is basically what that line implies.

879
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know about that. Georgia Southern. My

880
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 2: I love Clay Helton, you know, I love the whole

881
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 2: thing down there. My concern with them is is Davis

882
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: pickle Brin, the former Tulsa quarterback. He has some tools,

883
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 2: but he makes really wonky decisions. And when he was

884
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 2: at Tulsa, he was at turnover machine and you were

885
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 2: you were hoping that, you know, he goes into the

886
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 2: air raid with with Helton there, that a similar thing

887
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 2: would happen to what happened the year before when they

888
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 2: got Kyle Van Tries from Buffalo, who I'd never been

889
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 2: impressed with in his career, and then all of a

890
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 2: sudden it was like the Midas touch and Van Trees

891
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 2: threw for over four thousand yards. You were hoping it

892
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,399
Speaker 2: was gonna be something similar with pickle Brin, but I've

893
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 2: been I haven't been impressed with Pickle Britn so far.

894
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 2: He's he's doing pickle Brin things, turning the ball over

895
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 2: and whatnot. And this balls a team. You know, you

896
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 2: have a coaching staff that been there for a while

897
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 2: different stuff like that. They they at least play assimon

898
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 2: football on defense. If Pickle Britain is making his wonky

899
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 2: decisions again, they're gonna turn him over. I just think

900
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,720
Speaker 2: that line is too high that what was the other one, Welsh?

901
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 1: The other one was just the the the Arizona Stanford one,

902
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: just to you again if you didn't have any big

903
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: thoughts on it.

904
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 2: No, So my line in that one is Arizona minus

905
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 2: eleven point two. I was surprised that line came out

906
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 2: in the single digits. Arizona took care of business against Utah,

907
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 2: slapped them around a little bit. Their passing game looks

908
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 2: really good. Jaden Delora is a good quarterback and he

909
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 2: has a dual threat element as well. But like that kid,

910
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 2: also summer he worked on adding more or you know,

911
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 2: over the offseason on adding more muscle. Showed up a

912
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 2: little bit bigger. He's always had talent and skill as

913
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 2: a passer, and now you know that, you know, in

914
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: a dual threat thing as well, but now you're more

915
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 2: fortified for the season and whatnot. And maybe he ticked

916
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 2: the arm strength up just a little bit. And their

917
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 2: receivers are awesome. Between McMillan, the you know, one of

918
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 2: the best recruits they've ever saw in the history of

919
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 2: the school, a five star receiver, and then Cowing, you know,

920
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 2: the slot the quick guy that they had gotten from UTEP.

921
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: So it was sort of the revenge game for Cowing

922
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 2: in the last one. Really liked their offense. Their offensive

923
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: line actually is better than people think. They have a

924
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 2: couple of NFL guys on their offensive line, and Michael

925
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 2: Wiley's a solid running back where you can also throw

926
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:22,240
Speaker 2: in the ball different stuff like that. You're concerned about their defense,

927
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 2: but Stamford, I don't know, man, like you know again, like,

928
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 2: I'm not sure why Vegas is showing them disrespect to

929
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 2: putting this thing in the single digits yesterday late last night.

930
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: Maybe they missed this. Troy Taylor, the coach Stanford was

931
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 2: coaching against his former team, Welcome FCS Sacramento State into town.

932
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,359
Speaker 2: Troy Taylor knows all those players, he recruited them all.

933
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 2: And Sacramento State goes in there and beat Stamford thirty

934
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: to twenty three. That opening win that Stanford had at

935
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 2: Hawaii is looking more like a mirage or more like

936
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: Hawaii's defense is just that hapless. And that was the

937
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 2: game where your ask was running around and doing stuff

938
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 2: and whatnot. I was impressed with the play calling for

939
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 2: Stanford in that game. You know, then they get slapped

940
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: around by us. You probably couldn't do much with that.

941
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 2: But in this game where you're playing Sacramento State, I

942
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: didn't love what they were doing philosophically when like, you know,

943
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 2: it seemed like a smash spot for Taylor, but they

944
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 2: weren't throwing the ball to Euroseck, who's by far their

945
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,880
Speaker 2: their best offensive player. I didn't really get that. And

946
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: then EJ. Smith finally gets going on the ground, but

947
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 2: you were given a bunch of carries to other guys

948
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 2: as well. I was just really confused by that. So

949
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 2: I'm definitely down on Stanford. I like this Arizona team.

950
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 2: This this line should be in the double did its

951
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,720
Speaker 2: So if it's under that, I'll be buying a ticket today,

952
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 2: and maybe those out there should consider that as well.

953
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: The last three, I'm just gonna throw them out and

954
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: just pick one, pick one that you might be most

955
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 1: interested to pay attention to. Army Syracuse. Your system actually

956
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 1: came out with a bigger number, but there was an injury.

957
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: You've already adjusted it. There was a little bit, I

958
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 1: think a little bit of a value there. Liberty Florida International.

959
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 1: There was around a three point differential between what posted

960
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: and what you've got. And North Carolina Pittsburgh was one

961
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 1: that you had thrown out to me if you had

962
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 1: to jump on one, that's the most intriguing to either

963
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: watch or bet now or pay attention to a line.

964
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: Which of those three are you locked into?

965
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 2: I would bet North Carolina my line being closer to

966
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 2: minus eight. You know minus six right now. If that

967
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 2: thing's under seven, I want that one. I made a

968
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 2: mistake back in Pittla this past weekend against West Virginia.

969
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 2: That pit team is not very good because jerkobc is

970
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 2: not very good. They struggle to throw the ball and

971
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: you don't have the dynamite running back like you did

972
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 2: last year with a Bonaconda. Now you just have some

973
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 2: like decent guys, you know, like Cam and stuff like that,

974
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 2: but they just don't have the juice on offense anymore.

975
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 2: So that's that's the issue with that one. The Syracuse

976
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 2: game against Army. Thing to keep an eye on very

977
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 2: unfortunate news. Arondi Gatson, the big slot, dynamic guy that

978
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 2: Syracuse had, is out for the season unfortunately, has a

979
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 2: list frank injury. We had talked about his injury a

980
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 2: little bit on the shows late in the week. Last

981
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 2: week they got the worst news on him. So that's

982
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 2: something you need to keep in mind with Syracuse. My

983
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 2: system showing value on Syracuse in that game against Army.

984
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 2: But again you have to keep sort of keep that

985
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: one in mind. And the last one, what was the

986
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:16,959
Speaker 2: last one again, Welsh, I was the last one?

987
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: Was? Was it the Liberty Florida International Liberty?

988
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,439
Speaker 2: Yeah? I always do that to Yeah, but that one

989
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,280
Speaker 2: I think that that's too much respect for Liberty early

990
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 2: in the week, making them a thirteen point favorite against

991
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: Florida International. Florida International now is won a couple of games.

992
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 2: I think people had seen that one game where they

993
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 2: couldn't throw in the week zero because there was no

994
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 2: other games on, you know, and their quarterback through for

995
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 2: like four yards on like twenty attempts or something. But

996
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 2: they have since gotten him out of there and put

997
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: in different quarterbacks. Maybe that they didn't think we're ready.

998
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 2: But I've certainly been way better and have given Florida

999
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 2: International at least a passing element. I was on Florida

1000
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 2: International last week getting ten and a half or eleven

1001
00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 2: against Yukon. They went in and upset the fight and

1002
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 2: Jim more as this is another game where you can

1003
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 2: potentially look at Florida International. I'm not sure that they

1004
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 2: can beat Liberty. But Liberty is getting too much respect

1005
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: in the marketplace right now because yesterday went out and

1006
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 2: deck a really bad Buffalo team. Florida International coach by

1007
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 2: Mike McIntyre. They always have good game plans. Liberty, on

1008
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 2: the other hand, Jamie Chadwell comes in, but you're in

1009
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 2: this big system transition didn't matter as much against a

1010
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 2: team like Buffalo, But I wonder about going down there

1011
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 2: to Miami to play this team. Thirteen points or above

1012
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 2: is just too many points in my opinion, so I'd

1013
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:33,840
Speaker 2: be on Florida International that one.

1014
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: Thorton Eistrom make sure you follow him at thor Ku.

1015
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 1: You can check him out on Wednesday with Mike Farrell

1016
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: and Scott Bogman right here on the Betting Pros YouTube channel.

1017
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 1: Make sure you're subscribe so you're notified. You can take

1018
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 1: a look at what all the bets are looking like

1019
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 1: midweek after we have got some lines settling, and then

1020
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 1: you can come back on Saturdays attend am Eastern with

1021
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: him Mike Ferrel just breaking down all the stuff with

1022
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 1: the Thorhammer bet the Farrel Fade. Make sure you're locked in.

1023
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 1: You don't want to miss it as well. You want

1024
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 1: to track and see what Thors doing in real time.

1025
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: Download the Betting Pros Pick Track or download the app

1026
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:06,959
Speaker 1: on iOS or Android and you can follow four tons

1027
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: of other experts and just people that on are crazy

1028
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: hot streaks. You can set customized notifications, you can see

1029
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: who people are betting. Get it Today Betting pros one

1030
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: of the best tracking apps out there. It's a really

1031
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 1: good much more. Yeah, it's got news, it's got the articles,

1032
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 1: the articles are on there. It's just I really highly

1033
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 1: suggest it, even if you're not into the crazy world

1034
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 1: of it. I've told people this a million times. Do

1035
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: you want to figure out how good you are in

1036
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 1: the world and you can't get yourself into the crazy

1037
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 1: betting market, go and track your bets. You can do

1038
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 1: that with the Betting pros app. It's a very beneficial thing.

1039
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 2: Well just one comment on that, so you know this

1040
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 2: is way pre apps or smartphones whatever. I started sports

1041
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 2: betting when I was a freshman at the University of Kansas.

1042
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 2: I got my buck kicked the first year, you know,

1043
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,839
Speaker 2: when I was nineteen or whatever. After that, I became like,

1044
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:52,520
Speaker 2: like I need to because I wasn't going to stop,

1045
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 2: but it's like I need to win, go for it.

1046
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 2: So I started tracking all my own stuff, all these

1047
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 2: different categories in a notebook for every single team I bet,

1048
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 2: you know, all my picks and like do and whatnot.

1049
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 2: Now it's so easy and that app. You know, this

1050
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: is going to sound like me shilling for but it's not.

1051
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 2: I actually think that app is really really good. I

1052
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 2: would recommend it to people out there because you know,

1053
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 2: seeing the metrics, where are you going wrong? Where are

1054
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,479
Speaker 2: you going right? It's it's a really good app. Plus

1055
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 2: you get the notifications and the line movement, different stuff

1056
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:20,359
Speaker 2: like that, like I want it at this price. If

1057
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 2: if it hits there at a book you get the notification,

1058
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 2: So it's a it's a really good app. Per agree.

1059
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 1: Hey, when I can go in and I can see

1060
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: what am I doing better with spreads over unders money

1061
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:33,359
Speaker 1: lines props, it tells me the whole thing. So yeah,

1062
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 1: it's it sounds chilly, but just it's just another tool

1063
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 1: to make you better.

1064
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 2: With that baseball playoffs coming up, you need to see

1065
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 2: Welsh's picks in there too, So you got to follow

1066
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 2: fall of Welsh when you punching them baseball bets him.

1067
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: I got to pick it up a little bit on

1068
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 1: that prop market. I'm gonna do that for sure. Well,

1069
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 1: thank you guys for hanging out with us. Hopefully your

1070
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 1: bets are glorious here for week four and hopefully we

1071
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 1: got you locked in thorn I strom thor Ku on Twitter,

1072
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 1: you can follow me at is It the Welsh and

1073
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time, right here on the

1074
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 1: Betting Pro Early Line Look Podcast. Later, friends, MHM,