WEBVTT - AFC East projections for 2021 0:00:00.920 --> 0:00:04.640 Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio. 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:10.080 Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio, 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:14.800 your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.479 and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now, 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:23.160 here's your host, Paul. It's Fantasy Football Weekly. I am 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:28.000 Paul Charchy In. My co host as usual is Brian Johnson. 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:31.120 Great to be with you, Brian. What is one of 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:34.920 these days Matt d or Scott Fish. Yeah, Scott's already 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.159 has already called out a future show that he intends 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:40.519 to be on. We are breaking down all eight divisions 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:44.920 over the next eight weeks, fantasy style, looking forward, not backwards. 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.360 You already know what happened last year. We're gonna call 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.600 all of the offseason moves and just tell you how 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:56.000 we project each team's offense performing and specifically who for 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:59.560 every team, who is the riskiest player at current ADP 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:04.000 and who is the player with the most upside at 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:07.360 his current d ADP. We'll do that for every team, 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.720 and Fish has already called out NFC East Sylvia for that. 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:12.640 Hopefully Matt will be joining us for a future show 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:14.920 as well. No one wants to call out the a 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.360 f C East. That's what we have right here, but 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:19.600 it's getting more exciting. The a f C East has 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:24.240 always been like notoriously almost boring from a fantasy perspective 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:26.520 over the last ten years. It has because you know, 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:30.520 the Jets didn't even count, the Dolphins didn't count, can't 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:34.200 count most years now. Look and even the Patriots outside 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:37.240 of you know that Randy Moss year was fun back 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:41.360 in oh seven, pretty was gronk, you know, Okay, but 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:43.959 like Garrett Blonde had that fifteen touchdown season like three 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:46.120 years ago, there was always like two guys though it 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:49.760 was never like the whole offense blew up. Really anyway, 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:54.120 let's begin with the FC East and the Miami Dolphins. Brian, 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:58.000 let's sell. Let's get an overview of the season. Head 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.600 coach Brian Flores makes his return and I believe it's 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:02.760 his third year at least third years head coach. But 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:07.880 now there are not one, but two new offensive coordinators. 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:11.440 They have co coordinators Eric uh Studesville, who is the 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.200 running back coach, and George Godzi, who was the tight 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.200 end coach for Miami last year. Will uh tag team 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:22.960 the offensive coordinator uh duties for the Dolphins who last year, well, 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:25.120 it was really a tale of two quarterbacks, right. They 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:28.679 started with Brian Fitzpatrick and then they pivoted to To 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:33.359 which we weren't too keen on that move at the time, 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.799 and the offense suffered as a result. Really uh. They 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.280 finished the Dolphins in twenty three yards per game with 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:45.399 nine in points per game. Not awful, uh points per game, 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:49.680 but really once to it took over. The rookie struggles 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:51.959 were evident with him and that that offense just took 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:56.320 it kind of went on a downward spiral. But they 0:02:56.320 --> 0:03:00.120 were pretty balanced. They passed the ball percent of the 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.960 time that was uh in the league, so nineteen as 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:08.240 in you know, fewest pass attempts per game, passing played 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:12.280 percentage and uh, and they ran the ball forty two 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.520 percent of the time, which ranked fourteenth. So kind of 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:19.079 a balance offense and kind of what I'm expecting this year. 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:22.280 Um that the big names that people are drafting on 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:26.919 Miami starting with the highest ADP Miles Gaskin, will full Order, 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:30.400 Mike CASSICKI, DeVante Parker, Jalen Waddle, and then then the 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:36.120 aforementioned to um. Uh yeah, it's I like the receivers. 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:39.000 I like the receivers as a whole. But pick if 0:03:39.040 --> 0:03:43.040 I said, Brian, tell me right now which receiver is 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:46.200 going to lead the team in fantasy points. It's hard 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.400 to It's hard to say that authoritatively. Yeah, it definitely is. 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.680 And uh And for that reason, Will Fuller my riskiest 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:55.720 player on the Dolphins based on ADP. He's right around 0:03:55.720 --> 0:04:00.600 wide receiver thirty three right now, going before guys who 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:02.440 I think I like a lot more than Will Fuller 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:06.120 and Deebo Samuel, Jerry Judy, even former teammate Brandon Cooks, 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:08.880 despite the quarterback situation. I like the volume that Cooks 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.360 is going to see in Houston. Uh, Curtis Samuel, even 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:16.040 going after Will Fuller, only seventy vacated targets from Miami 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:20.080 from last year, and the most notable departure is Isaiah Ford, 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:24.480 which is not notable. So it's a very crowded wide 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.760 receiver room now with Fuller into they drafted Jalen Waddle. 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:31.760 Davante Parker's still there, very good wide receiver. So you 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:34.279 have three good receivers and a total unknown a quarterback. 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:38.160 We both agree to a looked pedestrian last year. Now 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:41.359 Here's what worries me, not will you get better? Hear too, 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:45.080 almost certainly. But what worries me most Brian is too 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:49.240 didn't show me the sparks of greatness. You know, I 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:52.680 I don't need everybody to have the Justin Herbert record 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:57.720 setting rookie year. But when you are a first round quarterback, 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:02.320 who um who was he picked five overall? I expect 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.760 sometimes for your passing to splash off the page, even 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:10.360 in completions. I mean, just things that that make me go, oh, 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:13.640 there's some special talent in that arm. I just didn't 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:18.640 see it. And you could take this either way good 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:23.320 or bad. He to essentially admitted he wasn't ready last year. 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.640 He didn't study up enough and he just the game 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:29.800 was way too fast for him. That that can be alarming. 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.080 That it also can be, you know, a wake up call. 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:33.719 So what We'll see how it goes. But when it 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:36.600 comes to, like you said, pegging the top wide receiver, 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.800 who knows I'm taking the cheapest one, which is Devonte Parker. 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:44.320 He's going after Jalen Waddle and we even like they 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:47.360 got Mike Asiki too, who's gonna soak up targets? Lynn 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:51.039 Bowden Bowden. He's they want to get the ball in 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.320 his hands. So I don't see a ton of volume 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:55.240 for any of these receivers. So I'm out on Will 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.239 Fuller at wide receiver thirty five winter. And you're buying 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:02.839 on Davante Parker, Well, he's not the high upside. Okay, 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:07.719 all right? Who is the highest upside? It's got gasking 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:13.719 Baby right now. RB getting way under drafted in my opinion, 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:18.560 Like he's going after James Robinson, Travis E t N. 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.360 I want no part of that. And in the draft 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:24.839 best ball this year? Uh going after Kareem Hunt? Are 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.080 you able? But even guys going way earlier Josh Jacobs, 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:31.080 David Montgomery not liking them as much as I like 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.800 Miles Gaskon, who didn't get a toner run last year, 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.320 but when he did he looked really good. And he 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.080 not only can run the ball, he can catch the ball. 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.839 He led all running backs in yards per reception nine 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:45.400 and a half, and again only had like a hundred 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.279 and forty carries, not even two hundred touches, but forty 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:53.560 one catches and half the season's work, and and again 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.400 about half the carries of a bell cow running back. 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:01.359 He was fifteen in evaded tackles is good and I 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:03.800 was holding my breath all throughout the draft, all throughout 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:06.839 free agency period. He could drink. The one guy in 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:08.680 the seventh round don't even know his name, not worried 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:12.600 about him. But Gaskin's got a clear role to starting 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.840 running back duties for the Dolphins, and it or there's 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.920 top fifteen running back potential and Gaskin, So I'm all 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.440 in there. And there aren't many running backs. There's only 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:25.440 probably ten work course running backs in the NFL and 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:28.640 maybe not even ten. Uh, Gaskin shapes up to be 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:30.000 one of them for as long as he's healthy. And 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:33.000 that contributed to why we didn't see as much of 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:34.680 Gaskin last year. It would have liked to. We need 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:37.440 to stay healthy. But that offense figures to be more 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:41.200 dynamic this year too. It will get better and Gaskins 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.920 should have more opportunity than he had last season. And 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:47.320 I'm kind of with you on buying on ad for 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:52.840 Miles Gaskin. Let's go to the Patriots. Brian Um. What 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.160 a cluster this was last year. You already know that 0:07:56.680 --> 0:08:01.280 Um and the offseason quote improvements that they made, don't 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:03.960 give me a lot of confidence that this is going 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.880 to be a materially better offense. Now, Cam Newton was 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:12.360 historically feeble as a passer. Last year's starting fifteen games 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:16.400 and throwing eight touchdowns, which is turned back the clock 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:22.280 to nineteen thirties era passing. It was horrible. Um, it 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:26.880 is unclear who the starting quarterback will be when the 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.520 season opens, but it's not unclear in my mind who 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:31.040 it will be by the time it ends. It'll be 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:35.880 Mac Jones. Now, Bill Belichick had to pivot and ended 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:39.480 up throwing the ball the second fewest times in the 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:42.559 NFL because Cam Newton was so bad as a passer 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:46.760 and his receivers were so inept um And I just 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:49.360 touched on the receiving aspect of the tape, Like I 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:56.440 cannot get over the fact that the Titans got Julio 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:58.880 Jones for a second round pick, which it is a 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:02.240 great a great you for Atlanta, really, but know where 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:07.000 you're going with this mohammed for a second round pick 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:11.400 by the Patriots. It's like really one of the worst 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:18.360 trade anyway. Yeah, So that, knowing that the receivers are 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:22.640 so bad, the teams splurged on wide receivers, but the 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:26.120 moves they made I think are absurd. They're tied up 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:31.240 thirty six million dollars in Nelson Aglar and Kendrick Borne, 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:37.280 two players whose previous teams didn't even try to keep them. 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:41.160 And I think from just a fantasy standpoint, Al is 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:45.560 like a wide receiver four, and Born as like a 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.840 wide receiver five. Dark throw and that's it. And and 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:50.959 if and if Cam Newton's the starter at the season, 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:52.480 I don't know that I'm drafted. I don't know that 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:54.760 I draft either one at any stage of the draft. No, 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:56.720 I find someone else would be more interested in than 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.760 probably easily the two best receivers on the team are 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:02.400 both height ends. Johnny Smith and Hunter Henry both got 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:08.560 fat contracts totaling eighties seven million dollars for players at 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:12.120 the same position. Optimists will hope for a return of 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:16.120 the twenty eleven season of Brady to Gronk and Hernandez, 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:20.800 when they total twenty two hundred yards and twenty four touchdowns. 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:22.640 When I looked that up, I'm like, oh my god, 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:27.800 I'd forgotten now potent that was. That is an insane 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.720 level of tight end productivity. Yeah, um, and it gives 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:36.720 you some of like a best case scenario. But the 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:41.560 problem is Mac Jones isn't Tom Brady, and Jonny Smith 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:45.000 and Hunter Henry aren't Gronk or Hernandez in part because 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:48.920 they're alive. So those guys are There's gonna be a 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:52.200 ton of two tight end sets, and the problem for 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.880 fantasy owners is going to be this. I think I 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:57.000 don't think both guys are gonna get fed like Gronk 0:10:57.080 --> 0:11:01.119 and Hernandez both got fed in that one season in eleven. Instead, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.400 I think it's going to be in any given week, 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.280 one of the two will probably have a good game, 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:11.520 and good luck guessing which guy is coming. You know 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:13.839 a lot of times, well, Hunter Henry is already hurt 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:17.400 by the way. That helps, And you know, I like 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:20.119 Johnny Smith more. And we'll talk about this a minute. Um. 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.880 Oftentimes on Fantasy Football Weekly, we will identify a good 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:27.880 tight end matchup, will be like, hey this, you know 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:30.120 this defense is really struggling in tight ends. They got 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:33.320 slow linebackers. Whatever the problem is. Now, even if we 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:35.760 identify a good matchup, it's gonna be very hard to 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:37.720 tell you this is a john who Smith game versus 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.680 this is a Hunter Henry game. So I think that's 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.080 going to be a an area of real frustration for 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:47.560 fantasy owners. The running game is convoluted as always, and 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:51.040 maybe even worse this year than most years. Damian Harris 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.520 was quietly effective last season for the Patriots, the average 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:55.800 five yards per carry, which I think is probably better 0:11:55.800 --> 0:12:00.800 than most listeners realize. Optimists would say that Jones will 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:02.760 keep Cam Newton on the bench, which would mean that 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:04.640 Harris can get the goal line work that went to 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.480 Newton last year. But the problem then, even if that happens, 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:11.960 is the team drafted Remandra Stevenson in the fourth round 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.840 and he's a bulldozer. He's built perfectly for goal line work. 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.640 So Damian Harris as a big back who who could 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.439 get goal line work, I can't tell you that Romandra 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:26.440 Stevenson isn't gonna get that. Stevenson seems like he's going 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.040 to be the guy we went into detail on him 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.920 a few weeks ago. Yeah, I just you know, maybe 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:34.440 as a rookie he won't get a lot of time. Um, 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.600 but if he does, if he's gonna get time anywhere, 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:40.079 the goal line could be the spot because he's built 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:43.120 so well for it. Uh. James White found note takers 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:45.400 in free agency and ended up returning to the Patriots. 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:50.120 He was incredibly ineffective last year with Cam Newton. You're 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:53.600 hope and drafting James White is that Mac Jones will 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.920 throw a bunch of underneath dump off stuff to a safe, 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.400 close target in James White. But again, we don't know 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:03.160 who's going to start the season at this point. Just 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:06.800 gross all around, so gross. Lastly, Sony Michelle is a 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:09.480 cut candidate. I know he's got first round pedigree, but 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.560 there's based on his his running over the past couple 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:18.600 of seasons, there's a chance he's not even on the roster. Alright. 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:20.880 Let's talk about the riskiest player at his current ADP. 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.520 I think it's Hunter Henry. He's got a seventh round ADP. 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:29.000 He's tight end eight. I thought you're gonna say, all um, well, um, 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.640 he's going four rounds earlier than John new Smith, who 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.600 the team likes so much better they gave him a 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:40.880 contract that's fifty percent higher than Hunter Henry's. People have 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:44.720 this all backwards. John new Smith is the preferred tight 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:46.760 end of the two. I'm with him. People are drafting 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.560 him in the wrong order and separated by four rounds. 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.079 You can get Jonas Smith in the eleventh round Bacon ADP. 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.480 That's a new brainer. The player with the most upside 0:13:55.520 --> 0:14:00.240 compared to his current ADP really nobody but um take 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.880 Mac Jones basically undrafted, going off the board as quarterback 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.360 thirty eight in round seventeen. He could start as early 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.559 as Week one, and he's got a lot of dump 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.400 off targets. As I mentioned James White, Johnna Smith, Hunter, 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:16.960 Henry Underneath, there's some there's some dump off opportunities for him. 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:22.680 Super flex leagues, you could go Mac Jones. Was Stevenson 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:28.680 in consideration for your upside player? He could just he 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.080 might not see the field this year. I don't know. 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:34.680 I just I you know, it's such a convoluted deep backfield. 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:37.920 I worry, but I I thought Stevenson looked very good 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.000 in college, and I like I like the upside that 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.240 he brings. Quite content not having any Patriots on roster 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:48.240 this year or next year. Let's take a break. When 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.680 we come back, let's talk about the Jets and the 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:57.800 Buffalo Bills. Both offenses could be better, even the Bills. 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.360 We'll talk about that when we come back. Fantasy Football Weekly. 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:04.600 Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchia, Brian Johnson with you. 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.400 We're breaking down the four teams of the a f 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:11.480 C East Fantasy Style with previews of the season. And 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.400 with now we go to the New York Jets, who 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.880 can't be worse last year, they can only get better. Uh, 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:21.800 new head coach and Robert Sala, the former San Francisco 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:26.160 forty Niners defensive coordinator, and the new offensive coordinator Mike Lafleur, 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.280 also from San Francisco. Not the offensive coordinator though, or 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:34.280 he wasn't the offensive coordinator, he was the passing coordinator 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:36.600 was his official title. He couldn't handle the run and 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:40.520 complicated today they really limited his scope to passing. But yeah, 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.920 the Jets last year dead last in yards per game 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:48.520 two and seventy nine points per game fifteen, just absolutely awful. 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.960 For whatever reason, they actually leaned towards the run more 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:56.640 they were and run played percentage and pass play percentage. 0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.720 But it's a whole new era in in York right now, 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:04.040 New Jersey, I should say, Uh, there's Joe Flacco. Is 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:07.520 Joe Flacco still there? Well, hopefully we won't see Joe Flacco, 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.600 won't see Sam Donald. It's the Zach Wilson Show now. 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.960 And they invested a lot in rookies Elijah Moore at 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.560 wide receiver, running back, Michael Carter. It's it's it's essentially 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:20.680 a brand new team and uh, but it feels like 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.760 a team even though they ran more last year, it 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:26.640 feels like they're gonna leaned towards the past more this year, 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:30.720 investing in Zack Wilson, Elijah More, UH went out and 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:35.800 signed Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder. I don't know what's gonna 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:38.040 happen with Crowder. I think there's some good landing spots 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:39.920 for him if they do decide to try to trade him. 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.840 But when the new offensive coordinator is a former passing 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.840 coordinator had no say in the run run game, something 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.200 tells me, Uh, they're gonna be throwing the ball more. 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:52.520 And for that reason, I'm my riskiest player based on 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:56.440 a DP is Michael Carter, who UH rookie running back. 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.360 By the way, that the highest drafted Jet based on 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:01.560 a DP right now, it kind of makes sense he 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:03.240 made He'd be the Jed I'd want to have. He 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:06.679 does it at RB thirty seven. Um, he's he's lumped 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:10.959 in with the David Johnson's, A J Dillon's Damien Harris. 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.040 We just talked about James Conner. Uh, a running back 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:15.640 I like a lot more than all those guys from 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:20.560 the Bills, who will talk about very shortly. But Carter 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:22.639 looks great, No tis as of right now. From what 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:26.040 I've heard and the competition, it's not great, but there 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:30.800 is competition in Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, who looked all right. Well, 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:35.760 Michael Perrine looked all right. Still to me, I'm out 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:41.360 on Carter. The Jets did not run the ball well 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:46.960 last year. Of course they were riding Frank Gore and 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.119 Adam Gaze. I mean, it's just you're freed of the 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.640 shackles of Adam Gaze. I just think everybody thinks that 0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:56.120 even last even the players are coming back from last year, 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.320 will be better, that young offensive line is going to 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.399 be better, and um, and well, I don't and I 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.840 certainly wouldn't want to invest in the passing game with 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:09.360 a new rookie quarterback making his first start. Probably don't 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.760 want to, um, but I'm willing to. I'm willing to 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:14.320 roll the dice on on a running back who flashed 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.000 last year. That line's gotta get a lot better, though, 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:18.800 you know we we say it all the time. You 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:20.560 can love the running back as much as you want, 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.040 but if if the hogs in front of them aren't moving, 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.280 the moving the pile. And last year was a big 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:28.040 problem for the Jets. Later ranked thirty. Their offensive line 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:31.400 was overalled by Pro Football Focus. UH. Their running backs 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:35.919 average just one point one yards per carry before contact. 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:42.000 Pertempt that in the NFL. Very bad, but they did. Uh. 0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:45.240 The Jets did trade up UH and drafted Elijah Vera 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:48.080 Tucker with the fourteenth overall pick. So hopefully the line 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:51.080 in the last year. So I think the line does 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:54.880 get better. I do too, but I'm still I think 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.960 people maybe Michael Carter, I'm not seeing more than a 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:01.320 hundred and fifty, hundred and seventy five carry. I think 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:04.160 he's in the two fifty right. He feels real. Keyshawn 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:06.960 Vaughny to me right now from last year where people 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:10.440 were overreacting to Keyshawn Vaughn saying he's gonna be the guy. 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.639 Nobody thought Van was as talented as Carter was. VA 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:16.240 was going wait first round and rookie drafts this time 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:21.400 last year. Yeah, that kills, but anyway we can disagree there, yeah, 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:24.600 we will. There is upside with Carter, but I want 0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:26.160 to I just want to see what he's got first, 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:27.800 and just what the whole teams in general. I think 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.399 they're gonna be behind a lot and throwing more than running. 0:19:30.400 --> 0:19:34.520 But anyway, that's my downside guy, the upside guy. We're 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:38.160 banking on Jamison Crowder leaving town. Right at least I am. 0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:40.320 I feel like at this point, I don't know. I'm 0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:42.679 not gonna You can feel free to say that I 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:45.440 am so as of right now. And while Crowder was 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:47.800 still a Jet, you can get Elijah more way on 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.280 the cheap. But if Crowder leaves town, Elijah more is 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.160 the wide receiver I want for the Jets, especially considering 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:57.560 he's going. I don't know why Corey Davis is the 0:19:57.560 --> 0:19:59.240 first wide receiver going off the board by the way, 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:01.640 white receiver Party nine. It should be Denzel Mims, whose 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:04.720 wide receiver fifth nine, and then More is down to 0:20:04.760 --> 0:20:08.280 wide receiver sixties seven. But I'll take the cheapest jet basically, 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:10.399 and uh, I don't blame you for that approach. And 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:12.399 if I'm gonna invest in the jet, I'm gonna do 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:17.120 it at the cheapest rate possible. And uh, we've touted 0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:19.639 more over the past couple of months when we were 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:23.000 analyzing rookies. Loved the dog piss celebration. One of the 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:27.159 greatest things I've ever seen. But as an actual football player, uh, 0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:30.520 elite level talent. And I know it's a new offense 0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:33.639 with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:37.200 slash passing coordinator, but Crowder was the guy last year 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:40.359 and more just feels like the safest wide receiver and 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:43.639 based on ADP he's all going. Elijah more Man. The 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:46.120 the O t A reports on him are very positive. 0:20:46.200 --> 0:20:49.880 And uh, again, Crowder's got to leave town. But uh, 0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:52.600 if he does, and I expect he does, so, I'm 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:55.960 maybe it should just by Crowder, you know, well he 0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:58.520 would he would have been he would have been the 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:01.600 well yeah, well that's a almost a whole another topic, right, 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.119 But if Crowder stays on the Jets, he would be 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:07.640 my highest upside play easily. Let's pivot to the Buffalo Bills, 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:09.800 our fourth and final team, as we break down the 0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:17.080 one projections for the nfc A f C East. You 0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:19.480 already know that Josh Allen took a massive step forward 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:23.080 last year. The Bill's offense is crafted almost entirely around 0:21:23.160 --> 0:21:27.000 his unique abilities, and they are unique. Buffalo average thirty 0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:30.760 points per game double with the Jets just did as 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:33.560 you mentioned, fifteen per game. Josh Allen would have been 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:38.920 the most prevalent quarterback on Championship one quarterback rosters last year, 0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:41.480 or even two quarterbacks, just based on where you got him, 0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:46.240 and he took a huge step forward. UM, there's little 0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:47.960 reason to think this year will be any different for 0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:50.720 Josh Allen. He will probably be every bit as effective 0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:54.280 and maybe more. Allen through the sixth most passes and 0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:58.439 had the second most quarterback rushes, which combined to give 0:21:58.520 --> 0:22:03.040 him the second most plays of all quarterbacks. There's nothing 0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:07.120 like opportunity in fantasy football. More than talent. Your players 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:09.680 need opportunity. We're going to touch up talk a touch 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:12.640 touch on this very subject. In a few minutes. Alan 0:22:12.720 --> 0:22:16.560 had so much opportunity touching the ball second most plays 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:20.399 of all quarterbacks. UM. I'll note that this as well. 0:22:21.000 --> 0:22:23.719 Mitch true Whisky is his backup and I like it. 0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:26.879 I like it when a mobile quarterback has another mobile 0:22:26.920 --> 0:22:30.280 quarterback behind him because you don't have to recraft the offense. 0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:33.520 Nothing needs to change. They can still run most of 0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:36.800 the same plays. It won't be as effective. I'm not 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:43.600 saying that Mitch Drubisky there he is. That's the extended 0:22:43.680 --> 0:22:48.120 version hold on. I am not saying sad Trombone Sky 0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:51.720 is as good as Josh Allen. But I do like 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:56.119 the notion that they have a high end backup quarterback, 0:22:56.720 --> 0:22:59.600 so that if you do draft a Steffon Diggs, remember 0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:02.880 this passing game. Um, you're not. You know, you still 0:23:02.920 --> 0:23:05.520 have some confidence knowing that if anything happens Josh Allen, 0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:18.240 you have plausible quarterbacking with that most generous my life 0:23:18.280 --> 0:23:21.520