1 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World, I felt that there 2 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: were so many different things going on that talking about 3 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: President Trump's five biggest challenges would really be helpful in 4 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: framing everything the White House is trying to deal with. 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: And I got there because it occurred to me. When 6 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: they get up in the morning and they're looking at 7 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: all these different things, they have to keep all these 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: balls in the air. They have to remember what they are. 9 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: So the five challenges I want to talk about are, 10 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 1: first of all, the domestic crisis of who governs. Second, 11 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: the Israeli Iranian War. Third, getting to the big beautiful 12 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,200 Speaker 1: Bill and getting it signed. Fourth, dealing with the Russia 13 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: Ukraine fight, which continues to go on, and five the 14 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: challenge of reshaping the entire world trade system through tariffs. 15 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: And I think if you look at the five and 16 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: you think, you know, President Trump has to keep all 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: five of these in mind all day, it'll give you 18 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: some sense of how much change is underway and how 19 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 1: really complicated it is. Let me start with what I 20 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: think is going to be a growing domestic crisis. And 21 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: while you might say that it comes out of the 22 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: Los Angeles riots, it's really much bigger than that. There 23 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: have been organized groups who were determined to take on 24 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: the President and the United States government in a direct confrontation. 25 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: You're going to see continued efforts at direct confrontation. And 26 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: you can tell how determined some Democrats are to force 27 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,919 Speaker 1: the confrontation when you watch Senator Padilla try to interrupt 28 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: the Secretary of Homeland Securities press conference to such a 29 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: degree that he gets arrested, handcuffed, and taken out. This 30 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: is a United States senator who deliberately is forcing a confrontation. 31 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: You see this in the calculated strategic decision of Governor 32 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: Newsom of California, who has decided that being the anti 33 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: Trump is his road to get to be the Democratic 34 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: presidential nominee. And there's this very odd coalition of illegal 35 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: immigrants who don't want to be deported, radical groups, and 36 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: a bitterly anti Trump wing of the Democratic Party. And 37 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: if you see those three as a coalition, that's what's 38 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: coming together is that constant sense that each of them 39 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: has a common enemy and it's the Trump administration. And 40 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: that because in their world the Trump administration is seen 41 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: is so bad, anything they do to stop it, or 42 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: disrupt it, or cause a confrontation is to their advantage. Now, 43 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: it's an interesting strategy. It was tried in the nineteen sixties, 44 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: and people tend to forget this, But the period of 45 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: the late nineteen sixties was the largest left wing insurgency 46 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: in modern American history. There were twenty five hundred bombs 47 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: set off. There were a million people surrounding the Pentagon 48 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: at one point. There were police riots in Chicago at 49 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: the Democratic Convention in nineteen sixty eight. There was a 50 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: huge fight at Berkeley where radical students tried to take 51 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: over the campus and literally was an open fight with 52 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: the California State Police, the California National Guard, and at 53 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: one point Governor Reagan, who we now think of as 54 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: a positive, friendly person, but at one point he got 55 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: so angry he said in a speech, it's going to 56 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: take bloodshed. Let's get it over with. There was a 57 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: huge confrontation between all the different elements of the left, 58 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: the anti war left, the anti racism left, the. 59 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: Pro gay rights left. 60 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: All of them came together in the late nineteen sixties 61 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: early nineteen seventies, and the result was the American people, 62 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: when forced to choose, gave President Nexon one of the 63 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: largest majorities in American history. They carried to every state 64 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: except Massachusetts. Again, Reagan, having been very tough with the students, 65 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: ended up getting re elected by a seven point margin 66 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: over the Democrat. So, when forced to choose the American 67 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: people prefer orderly structured government, I think you're going to 68 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: see a continued effort here. And if you think about it, 69 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: it makes perfect sense because when you're dealing with the 70 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: disaster of the Biden immigration policy, which essentially was an open. 71 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 2: Border, and you have millions and millions. 72 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 1: Of people here, why would you expect all of them 73 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 1: to go cheerfully and pleasantly they want to stay here. 74 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: They already broke the law to get here. Why wouldn't 75 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: they break the law to stay here? And if you 76 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: combine that with the radicals, people like Antifa, who had 77 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: kept the city of Portland in turmoil for three years, 78 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: the radicals are always looking for an excuse to be 79 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: out there fighting. They were the people who in many 80 00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: ways were very helpful, both in Ferguson were clearly people 81 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: were being bussed in during the riots and Ferguson clearly 82 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: during the summer of twenty twenty, there was a nationwide 83 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: network of people eager to cause trouble, riot and burn 84 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: things down. We do have as an additional point here 85 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party, I would say probably sixty percent 86 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: of it, of the elected Democrats, are now so radically 87 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: alienated by Trump that causing confrontation strikes them as reasonable 88 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: because they can't beat him any other way. They're not 89 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: going to beat him in the Senate, They're not going 90 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: to beat him in the House. He's gradually taking over 91 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 1: the executive branch, which they have dominated for ninety years. 92 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: You see this floundering around. So President Trump's first great 93 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: challenge is to communicate with the country, much like President 94 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: Eisenhower did in the fifties when he sent troops into 95 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: Little Rock, Arkansas, much like President Johnson did when he 96 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: sent troops into Detroit during a riot. He simply has 97 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 1: to communicate to the country that this this is a 98 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: struggle between the legitimate, constitutional, elected forces of law and 99 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: people who in fact want to seat usurp and take 100 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: over governing America for totally different values and totally different reasons. 101 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: In the short run, it's going to be a mess, 102 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: and the long run, it's almost certain that the American 103 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 1: people who will believe in support some process of enforcing 104 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: the law in some process of having people who are 105 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 1: here illegally leave the country. So that's the first great 106 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: challenge and has to spend some time every single day 107 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: dealing with that, because it doesn't go away. They don't say, oh, 108 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 1: we know you're busy, why don't we come back Thursday. 109 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: Every single day from here until it ends, you're going 110 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 1: to see some kind of challenge somewhere in America, and 111 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: you're going to see an entire network, some of it 112 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: being the news media. You may remember the reporter in 113 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 1: Los Angeles who's talking about how happy and friendly people 114 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: looked as cars were burning, which, if you think about 115 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: it's pretty weird. So you're going to have news media 116 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: on the other side, you're going to have an effort 117 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: to paint this and to use it as a device 118 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: to disrupt the momentum of the Trump administration. Momentum which 119 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: I have reported recently in a newsletter means that since 120 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: the election, over a million people have shifted from the 121 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: Democratic Party to the Republican Party, and as of this week, 122 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: a Quinnipiac poll showed the Democrats in the House are 123 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: down to twenty one percent approval, so from their perspective. 124 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: They're desperate to find a way to change the momentum, 125 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: and that has to be ultimately the number one challenge, 126 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: because the president has to be able to govern the 127 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: country in order to have an effective presidency. The second 128 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: big challenge frankly blew up, although people could see it 129 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: coming for months now. President Trump has said to the Iranians, 130 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: why don't we arrange a deal where you give up 131 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: your nuclear weapons program and we'll drop the sanctions. You 132 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: re enter the world of prosperity, you have a great future. 133 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: We don't have any particular reason to fight with you. 134 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: And for months the Iranians have said no, that their 135 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: bottom line is they have to have an ability to 136 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: build nuclear weapons. Well, what that means is that you 137 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: are dealing with a genuine crisis, because remember that this 138 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: particular Iranian dictatorship says publicly that they want to destroy 139 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: Israel and destroy the United States. And the Ayatola Hamenis 140 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: actually gone to national television and reassured the Iranian people 141 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: that these are not just slogans, that their policy is 142 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: to destroy Israel and destroy the United States. So Prime 143 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 1: Minister Netnahu is the longest serving prime minister in Israeli history. 144 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: He was very patient, watched this for months, and the 145 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: Iranians clearly refused to give up their nuclear program. And 146 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: so the Israelis, who had very long time had a 147 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: plan to do this, had a combined operation. Remember that Mussad, 148 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: which is the Israeli intelligence service, focuses pretty narrowly on 149 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: the survival of Israel, and at that job, it is 150 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: probably the best intelligence service in the world. They perform 151 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: astonishing things. And in the last couple of days we 152 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: now know they infiltrated weapons into Iran so that they 153 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: could take out a variety of missiles, of aircraft, defense 154 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: systems and other things, and they could identify where scientists 155 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: and generals were, so that when some two hundred Israeli 156 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: fighter planes crossed into Iranian airspace, they knew exactly where 157 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: they're going, exactly what they. 158 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 2: Were going to hit. 159 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,359 Speaker 1: And Prime Minister Netniel who has said publicly and explicitly 160 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 1: they're going to continue this air campaign until they completely 161 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: destroy any possible nuclear program. So that is an enormous shift. 162 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: You know, Israel has now I think really spurred on 163 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 1: by the massacres in October two years ago, where they 164 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: were so stunned to realize how vulnerable they were, and 165 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: they were so horrified by the number of people, including 166 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: children and babies, who were killed, and the grotesque hostility 167 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: of women being drag naked through the streets, people behaving, 168 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 1: rockstrown at them. They methodically set out to destroy Amas, 169 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: which they're still in the process of doing. They broke 170 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 1: the back of Hezbollah with a series of brilliant intelligence operations. 171 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: So AMAS is on their south, Hesblas in the north 172 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: in Lebanon, and by the way, now that has Bela 173 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: has been shattered, the Lebanese government announced publicly that they 174 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: would not in any way participate in an effort to 175 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:41,559 Speaker 1: attack Israel. Over this assault in Iran, then the Syrian 176 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: government collapsed. The replacement government, although it's led by somebody 177 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: who we've defined as a terrorist for years, has said 178 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: very clearly they don't want to fight anybody. They just 179 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: want to find a way to rebuild Syria, which has 180 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: been damaged now for almost twenty years by an internal 181 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: civil war. So that front now has been solved, and 182 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: so the great opponent is Iran. Iran is a very 183 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 1: big country, about twice the size of Texas. Israel's a 184 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: relatively small country, I think about the size of New Jersey. 185 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: So you have a David and Goliath moment. But the 186 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: fact is that the Israelis have extraordinarily competent military in 187 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: an even more competent intelligence service, and my guess is 188 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: that they'll keep pounding on the Iranians, certainly until they've 189 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: destroyed the nuclear program and potentially until they've destroyed the 190 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:33,679 Speaker 1: regime and allowed the Iranian people to reclaim their own country. 191 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: Every poll I've seen says over eighty percent of the 192 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,199 Speaker 1: Iranian people dislike the regime. But it's a police state, 193 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: and it's ruthless and it will kill you, and so 194 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: they're not able to get rid of it. But I 195 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 1: suspect if it's weakened enough that in fact it may 196 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: fall and you may see sort of a post Byatola 197 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: Iran in the not distant future. But that's again, that 198 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 1: means every single day President Trump has to get up 199 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: and get a briefing on his exactly what's going on 200 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: and who's getting involved? Are the Russians going to try 201 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: to get involved? On many ways, Iran has been a 202 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: client state of Russian and the Iranians have sold the 203 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: Russians a huge number of weapons to fight in the 204 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 1: Ukraine War. Are the Chinese going to try to get involved? 205 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: And pretty hard for them to do. It's a long 206 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: way off and they don't have the kind of deep 207 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: sea naval power we do. Over the next few days, 208 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 1: we'll see how things evolve. What's impressive is that all 209 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: of the Arab states, there's nobody defending Iran. The Saudis 210 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: are terrified of the Iranians, the UAE is terrified of 211 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: the Iranians. They probably deep down are pretty happy and 212 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: hope these willies will finish the job. But that's the 213 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: second challenge. So on the one sound front, President Trump 214 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: has to look at home and deal with real opposition 215 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: and real hostility. On a second front, he has to 216 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: try to manage what's going on in the Middle East, 217 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: and one try to keep the Americans out of it, 218 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: which they've done a good job so far. Secretary Marco 219 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: Rubio has a Secretary of State, has been very clear 220 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: that we're not going to pick a fight with Iran 221 00:12:58,120 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: unless the Iranians pick a fight with us. 222 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 2: So that's a second challenge. 223 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: The third challenge, in some ways, the definition of the 224 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: success of this administration is the big beautiful bill that's 225 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,599 Speaker 1: currently in the Senate that passed the House, and you 226 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: probably notice that as a second step, they passed in 227 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: the House the Recision Bill to cut nine billion dollars 228 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: in spending, which was a very direct, very specific cut 229 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 1: they are now negotiating. There are a number of people 230 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: who want really deep cuts. The fact is they can't 231 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: get really deep cuts beyond what's in the current build 232 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: that came out of the House because the House majority 233 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,960 Speaker 1: is so narrow that they'll lose the Moderates and the 234 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 1: Water simply won't vote for really really deep cuts. On 235 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: the other hand, if you think of this as the 236 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: first in a series of bills, and I try to 237 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,719 Speaker 1: remind everyone that when we balance the budget, will I 238 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: have a speaker. We didn't do it in one bill. 239 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: Took us four years of constant work to get to 240 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 1: a balanced budget. So I think there's going to be 241 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 1: a very big effort made, particularly by Speaker Mike Johnson, 242 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: to figure out a formula so that the people who 243 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: want real deep cuts are going to have a chance 244 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: to get them, but not in this bill. This bill 245 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: has to remain pretty close I would say ninety five 246 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: ninety six percent of what came out of the House, 247 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: because it has to go back through the House again, 248 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: and they simply don't have the margin. Something as simple 249 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: as passing the recision cuts about nine point two billion dollars. 250 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: They only passed it by a two vote margin. So 251 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: I think it's really important to recognize that this is 252 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: going to be a continuing challenge. If I were betting 253 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: the bill will pass, it will be signed into law, 254 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: it'll be a huge tax cut, a huge deregulation bill, 255 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: and a modest cut in spending. But it will only 256 00:14:56,040 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: happen because the President personally gets involved, listen to everybody, 257 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: and gradually helps hammer out an agreement that everybody can 258 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: vote for. So here you have the president who already 259 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: has to pay attention to the domestic challenge of people 260 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: who want to take on the American government. He has 261 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 1: to deal with what's happening between Israel and Iran, and 262 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 1: then he has to find the energy and the time 263 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: to negotiate with Senators and then to negotiate with the House, 264 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: and to find a way creatively to get to a 265 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: bill everybody can vote for. I think they'll get it done, 266 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: but imagine the amount of time and the level of effort. 267 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: When we got to the balanced budget agreement with Bill Clinton, 268 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: we spent thirty five days face to face. Now imagine 269 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: what a drain of time and energy that is for 270 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: a president who already has all these other things on 271 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: his plate. The fourth great challenge is the Russian Ukrainian War, 272 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: and here I think President Trump has been deeply disappointed. 273 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: I think he looked back on his first term when 274 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: he had a good relationship with Putin and he thought, 275 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: somehow they could work something out easily, and I think 276 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: he honestly believed he could get to. 277 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 2: A peace agreement in a few days. 278 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: He's gradually learning that, in fact, Putin has decided that 279 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: this is the capstone of his life, that he is 280 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: the man who is going to reunify the Russian Empire, 281 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: and that the key step for that is to crush 282 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: Ukraine so that it in fact cannot survive as a 283 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: independent country, and so much a definition of his life 284 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: that he's not backing down. And I think my sense 285 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: is that President Trump has been very disappointed that the 286 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: inability to get Putin to take seriously finding a way 287 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: to get to a peaceful solution, and what Putin basically 288 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 1: is gambling on is that while they talk that the 289 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: Russian military, which is about four or five times bigger 290 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: than the Ukrainian military, that it will gradually wear out 291 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian military and win a crushing military victory. Now 292 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: there's not much evidence yet that that's going to happen. 293 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: Ukrainians have turned out to be very inventive. They've always 294 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,479 Speaker 1: been a center of manufacturing in the Soviet Union. They 295 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 1: have lots of engineers and lots of capable people, and 296 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: they've been very inventive. They drove the Russian Black Sea 297 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 1: fleet out of the Black Sea into the Cia of 298 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: Azov because they've developed a series of drones that could 299 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: sink ships. See, you have a five thousand dollars drone 300 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: and a sixty million dollar cruiser, and the drone would 301 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: beat the cruiser. The Russians just gave up. They pulled 302 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: back to get out of range. The recent effort by 303 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians to hit the Russian strategic bombers, some of 304 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: them thirty four hundred miles away from Kiev has amazing achievements, 305 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: an achievement comparable to some of the things the Israelis 306 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: have done. So that's going to. 307 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 2: Continue to go on. The question. 308 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 1: In my mind, the Europeans are going to stand firm 309 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,959 Speaker 1: because the Europeans genuinely do believe that Ukraine is the 310 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 1: barrier that protects them from Putin and protects them from Russia. 311 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,199 Speaker 1: It's not clear to meident Trump comes down in this. 312 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: He wants peace. He's also very worried about nuclear war. 313 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: Somehow people convinced him in this first term just how 314 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: truly horrible a nuclear war would be. Putin does have 315 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: six thousand nuclear weapons, and so I think the president, 316 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: while he's more aggressive than Joe Biden was, he's still 317 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: careful because he doesn't want to push Putin into a 318 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: corner where he decides that tactical nuclear weapons are better 319 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: than being defeated. I think that this will go on 320 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: for a while. I think it's a great disappointment to 321 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: President Trump. I think he really did, sincerely believe he 322 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 1: could get to a truce and it just didn't quite 323 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: work out. So that's the fourth problem. Again. Put yourself 324 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: in President Trump's position. You wake up in the morning, 325 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: you look at home to see what's happening in terms 326 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 1: of unrest. Then you look to Israel Iran to see 327 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: how that campaign's going. Then you come back and look 328 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 1: at the Congress to see what has to get done 329 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: to move towards passing this huge important legislation. Then you 330 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: pivot and you're looking at Russia and Ukraine. And then finally, 331 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: the fifth grade challenge is fundamental effort by President Trump 332 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: to reorder the entire world trading system. The trading system 333 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: had grown up as a global system in which the 334 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,199 Speaker 1: United States sacrificed a great deal economically in order to 335 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:22,239 Speaker 1: sustain an open trading system around the whole planet, and 336 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,479 Speaker 1: other countries learned to take enormous advantage of this, and 337 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,719 Speaker 1: so over a period of about thirty years, the system 338 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 1: became more and more destructive for the United States and 339 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,439 Speaker 1: more and more positive for Europe and particularly China. And 340 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: Trump came along, and he had talked about this a 341 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 1: lot back when he was a businessman, so this was 342 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: not some new theme to him. But he came along 343 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: and said, look, we're going to simply have to change 344 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: the agreement. We're the largest market in the world. We 345 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:50,479 Speaker 1: ought to have the most leverage. People ought to in 346 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: fact be paying us for access to our market, and 347 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: we should not be allowing ourselves to be taken advantage of. 348 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 1: So he has begun to build a tariff Bay East system, 349 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 1: which ultimately leads to bilateral that is, one country to 350 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: one country agreements across the whole planet. It is an 351 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,479 Speaker 1: enormous undertaking. The truth is virtually every country wants to 352 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 1: get into the American market. You're seeing a huge increase 353 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 1: in manufacturing in the US by countries where their companies 354 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: have just decided in order to be able to be productive, 355 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 1: they've got to be in the United States. And you're 356 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,640 Speaker 1: going to see every country negotiate a unique, separate deal. 357 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: It's a very large change from the multinational system that 358 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: had grown up and that had been kind of a 359 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: global trading system, but one in which everybody else took 360 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: advantage the United States. Working all that out is going 361 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: to take several years. So again you have President has 362 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: to meet with Secretary Treasury Vessent and others, sit down 363 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 1: and look at each of these agreements, decide, you know, 364 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 1: what happens with the European Union, what happens with Japan, 365 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: what happens with China, on and on for about one 366 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 1: hundred and ninety countries. 367 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 2: So to wrap all of this up. 368 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: I think the five biggest challenges present and Trump faces 369 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: right now, and the way he has to balance his 370 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 1: energy and his focus are first, re establishing domestic order 371 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: while we in fact do solve the problem of illegal immigration. Second, 372 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: ensuring that Israel wins the war with Iran and ideally 373 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: that we help the Iranian people take control of their 374 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: government again. Third, getting the big beautiful bill through the 375 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,360 Speaker 1: House and Senate and signed into law this summer so 376 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 1: that the American people have money in their pocket so 377 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: the economy starts booming by early next year. Fourth, sustaining 378 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians, pressuring putin potentially going towards something like Senator 379 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham's sanctions bill, which has eighty five sponsors in 380 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: the Senate and which would be imposed very very harsh 381 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 1: sanctions on Russia, and try to basically bankrupt the government. 382 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: And then finally continue day by day negotiate the tariff 383 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 1: agreements with Fortunately somebody is smart and as capable as 384 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 1: Secretary Bessen taking the lead. It is a big agenda, 385 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 1: It is an exhausting agenda, and I think, frankly, I 386 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 1: don't know of any other president who could carry simultaneously 387 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,360 Speaker 1: as many different challenges as President Trump, and I think 388 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: it will be fascinating to see how it evolves, and 389 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 1: in future weeks I'll report again on how I see 390 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: this whole process evolving. 391 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. 392 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: Newtsworld is produced by Gangris Street sixty and iHeartMedia. Our 393 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: executive producers guard Zie Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 394 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. 395 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingrishtree sixty. If you've 396 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast 397 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: and both rate us with five stars and give us 398 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 1: a review so others can learn what it's all about. 399 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign up for my 400 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,400 Speaker 1: three free weekly columns at gangrishtreet sixty dot com slash newsletter. 401 00:22:47,960 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 2: I'm newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld.