WEBVTT - How US Troops Could Go About Taking Hormuz

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The war in Iran

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<v Speaker 1>is four weeks old. The US has deployed tens of

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<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars of munitions in thousands of strikes, and

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<v Speaker 1>more than forty five hundred people have been killed in

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<v Speaker 1>the conflict. That's according to governments and non government agencies.

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<v Speaker 1>And despite ten ships passing through the Strait of horm

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<v Speaker 1>moves on Thursday in what President Trump has described as

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<v Speaker 1>a gesture of goodwill, the strait remains effectively shut, choking

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<v Speaker 1>off roughly twenty percent of the world's oil and gas,

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<v Speaker 1>which has sent energy prices soaring. President Trump has threatened

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<v Speaker 1>to strike Iranian energy sites if the country doesn't come

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<v Speaker 1>to terms and reopen the Strait of Hormones, and he's

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<v Speaker 1>issued a deadline that he's now pushed back twice. The

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<v Speaker 1>game out how the conflict could unfold From here, I

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<v Speaker 1>reached out to someone who is no stranger to high

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<v Speaker 1>stakes military decisions, retired Admiral James Tavridas, who's also a

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<v Speaker 1>calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is, among other things, the

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<v Speaker 1>longest serving combatant commander in recent US history, and the

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<v Speaker 1>co author of a series of novels, The latest, twenty

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<v Speaker 1>eighty four, will be published in May, and Admiralstabritas sees

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<v Speaker 1>the pressure rising on both sides to make a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>There are two clocks ticking right now. One clock that's

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<v Speaker 2>sticking is in Washington, and it's for the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the gas prices, it's the cost of doing this,

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<v Speaker 2>it's the public support. And it's November. It's the election

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<v Speaker 2>in November. So that clock is ticking, and certainly it

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<v Speaker 2>strikes midnight pretty soon. And for iron the clock here

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<v Speaker 2>is their infrastructure. How much of their military do we destroy?

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<v Speaker 2>How much of their defense industrial base, how much of

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<v Speaker 2>their oil? How much of their electric grid? That clock

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<v Speaker 2>strikes midnight and probably read to four weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>He says, both countries have good reason to come to

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<v Speaker 1>the table, but that's far from a guarantee.

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<v Speaker 2>I think there's a two in three chance we get

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<v Speaker 2>to a negotiated conclusion, call it sixty five percent. But

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<v Speaker 2>the bad news is, and this is uncomfortably high, one

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<v Speaker 2>in three chants therefore a thirty five percent chance that

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranians do not follow the logic of this situation,

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<v Speaker 2>decide they want to keep fighting. We keep bombing, and

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<v Speaker 2>we then go after their critical infrastructure. They go after

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<v Speaker 2>Gulf Arab critical infrastructure. Then we have a much more

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<v Speaker 2>serious global economic challenge ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm David Garrett and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News Today. On the show, retired Admiral James Tavridaz

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<v Speaker 1>on how sending thousands more US troops to the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East changes the chances of a diplomatic resolution to the

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<v Speaker 1>Iran War and the risks Atmostrophvidus, you were the head

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<v Speaker 1>of US Southern Command, US European Command, and from twenty

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<v Speaker 1>nine to twenty thirteen you were Supreme Allied Commander of NATO.

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<v Speaker 1>But before all of that, back in the nineteen eighties,

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<v Speaker 1>you spent some time as a young sailor helping ships

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<v Speaker 1>make their way through the Persian Gulf. So before we

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<v Speaker 1>get into the details of US strategy and options in

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<v Speaker 1>this particular war, I'm curious how that time in your

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<v Speaker 1>life shapes the way that you're thinking about this conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>It does immensely, and that's a smart question. This was

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<v Speaker 2>in the late nineteen eighties and we were escorting Kuwaiti

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<v Speaker 2>tankers which were flagged to the United States through the strait.

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<v Speaker 2>This is during the Iran Iraq War, when the Iranians

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<v Speaker 2>again closed the strait of horror moves. Two takeaways that

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<v Speaker 2>continue to rattle around in this grizzled old admiral's brain.

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<v Speaker 2>One is it's hard, it's navigationally challenged, and to do

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<v Speaker 2>it under Iranian fire as we did in the nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>eighties is doubly challenging. But a key thing to remember

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<v Speaker 2>is they did not have drones. In number two, you

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<v Speaker 2>have to open this straight. You cannot seed control of

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<v Speaker 2>it to this rotten theocracy in Tehran. So how we

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<v Speaker 2>get there? I hope we can do it diplomatically, but

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<v Speaker 2>if necessary see paragraph one, we will open that straight.

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<v Speaker 1>In recent weeks, the US has ordered some seven thousand

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<v Speaker 1>more troops to the Middle East, around one thousand soldiers

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<v Speaker 1>from the eighty second Airborne, five thousand troops from two

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<v Speaker 1>marine expeditionary units. The thirty first, which deployed from Okinawa,

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<v Speaker 1>should arrive in the coming days. The eleventh MEU will

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<v Speaker 1>be in the region in three to four weeks. What

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<v Speaker 1>is the decision to send those troops? Indicate to you

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<v Speaker 1>about the broader objective here that the US has at

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<v Speaker 1>this point.

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<v Speaker 2>My supposition is that President Trump wants those troops to

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<v Speaker 2>kind of hold them like a hammer over the head

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<v Speaker 2>of the air Iranians and threaten actually seizing carg Island, which,

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<v Speaker 2>as you know, David, is ninety percent of the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>oil flows through it. You really put a stake in

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<v Speaker 2>the heart of the Iranian oil based economy. So President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump is signaling to the Iranians not only am I

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<v Speaker 2>bombing broadly across the entire vast nation of Iran, but

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<v Speaker 2>I also have precise boots on the ground options. Seven

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<v Speaker 2>thousand troops is not a huge force. They're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to conquer Iran, but you could use them in precise

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<v Speaker 2>ways to try and move the negotiation along.

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<v Speaker 1>Could you walk us through what the stages of a

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<v Speaker 1>mission to take carg Island would look like and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>give us your sense of what the US could stand

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<v Speaker 1>to gain or lose by undertaking a mission like that.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure, let's go back to those marines at see the

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<v Speaker 2>first tranch of them, The thirty first Marine Expeditionary Unit

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<v Speaker 2>have arrived just outside of the Strait of Horn Mouse.

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<v Speaker 2>They've got to get through the strait, which the Iranians

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<v Speaker 2>will oppose deeply that they got to get through mines,

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<v Speaker 2>ballistic missiles, small boats above all the drones. Once they

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<v Speaker 2>get through that, now they still david have three hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and fifty miles to go to get up to Carg Island.

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<v Speaker 2>In that stretch of water, Iran will continue to attack them.

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<v Speaker 2>I could see terrorist attacks against them from small Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>supposedly civilian craft, more drone attacks. Now you're off the

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<v Speaker 2>coast of Carg Island, so here you depend on Central

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<v Speaker 2>Command air cover to make sure there's a bubble over

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<v Speaker 2>you in effect, and the sea the fifth Fleet is

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<v Speaker 2>protecting you. Now those Marines will get on osprey aircraft.

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<v Speaker 2>They're kind of in between a plane and a helicopter.

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<v Speaker 2>They'll start going ashore by air. There'll be some seaborn

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<v Speaker 2>component of them. You bring them ashore at a relative

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<v Speaker 2>undefended corner of this island. Cargo is about a third

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<v Speaker 2>of the size of Manhattan. You pick a couple of points,

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<v Speaker 2>bring in the Marines, seize the base. Now they're locked

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<v Speaker 2>down in a well known place and it's within artillery

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<v Speaker 2>range of the Iranian coast itself, and there are twenty thousand,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe thirty thousand Iranians on the island that you have

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<v Speaker 2>to control. Most of them are civilian oil workers who

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<v Speaker 2>just want to stay out of the line of fire.

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<v Speaker 2>They have no interest in getting in the crossfire between

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<v Speaker 2>US Marines and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If I'm Tehran

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<v Speaker 2>right now, I'm increasing my forces on the island. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>putting booby traps in place, putting land mines at the

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<v Speaker 2>places where I think you might land. I'm putting drones overhead,

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<v Speaker 2>very small ones so I can maintain surveillance. So they're

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<v Speaker 2>preparing for this. It's a very challenging mission. It's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of easy for me to sit here and say it,

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<v Speaker 2>but to execute that mission will be costly in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of lives and equipment. Final point, if I were advising

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<v Speaker 2>the administration, I would say, maybe a better idea of

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<v Speaker 2>blockade the island. Have the fifth fleet. Just shut it down.

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<v Speaker 2>Tell the world don't bother going to Carg Islands no

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<v Speaker 2>longer open for business. Tell the Iranians you can do

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<v Speaker 2>all you want with the oil that's stored there, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's not leaving Carg Island. I think that might make

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<v Speaker 2>more sense.

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<v Speaker 1>What else might be on the table for the US

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<v Speaker 1>as they think about where they might deploy troops in

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<v Speaker 1>this region.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll give you three other options that kind of pop

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<v Speaker 2>into my head. One is the island of Larrac right

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<v Speaker 2>at the very northern tip of the Strait of Hormuz,

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<v Speaker 2>and Larac is very important because it controls the top

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<v Speaker 2>of the straits. Heavy defended, but seizing that I think

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<v Speaker 2>would have some military utility. A second one is there

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<v Speaker 2>are a pair of islands that are claimed by both

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<v Speaker 2>Iran and the UAE. This is Abu musa island and

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<v Speaker 2>Tomb also in that vicinity. So if you took those islands,

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<v Speaker 2>you'd have land right at the top of the strait.

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<v Speaker 2>That would help you defend it and keep it open.

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<v Speaker 2>But if you really want to lock down the strait,

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<v Speaker 2>you've got to control both sides of it, both the

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<v Speaker 2>Arab side and the Persian side. And then third, and

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<v Speaker 2>actually more dangerous than anything we've talked about, would be

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<v Speaker 2>going into Iran, deeply into Iran, and going after the

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear material that they have. They have nine hundred pounds

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<v Speaker 2>maybe one thousand pounds of enriched uranium. It's not quite

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<v Speaker 2>weapons grade, but it's very close to where is it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's at the bottom of supposedly of Isfahan under concrete.

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<v Speaker 2>You'd have to have a thousand plus troops to defend

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<v Speaker 2>the area, put up all the air cover, and then

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<v Speaker 2>have the seals in the green berets wait for it,

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<v Speaker 2>civilian technicians who know how to manage all this. It

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<v Speaker 2>is a very difficult mission. It would be literally the

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<v Speaker 2>largest special forces operation in history. I want to say

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not advocating those missions. I firmly believe we need

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<v Speaker 2>to get to a diplomatic resolution here. But you know,

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<v Speaker 2>soft power without the ability to apply hard power is

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<v Speaker 2>no power. So move the forces, set the table, and

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<v Speaker 2>then go to the Iranians and say, look, we really

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<v Speaker 2>want to settle this at a negotiating table, not on

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<v Speaker 2>carg Island.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to shift to opening up the straight and

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<v Speaker 1>you've laid out ways in which the US could take

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<v Speaker 1>over Carg Island other islands. Do those military options do

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<v Speaker 1>much to hasten the process of getting oil flowing once again?

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<v Speaker 1>Just draw the line for me from doing that to

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<v Speaker 1>effectively opening up this strait once again.

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<v Speaker 2>The theory of the case is that by holding hostage

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<v Speaker 2>this ninety percent of the Iranian oil, we could then

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<v Speaker 2>go to the Iranians and say, carg Island. Nice little

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<v Speaker 2>operation you got going here. Boy, it'd be a shame

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<v Speaker 2>if we had to blow it all up. How about

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<v Speaker 2>if we go ahead and open the straits and then

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<v Speaker 2>we can have a conversation. Let's get to a very

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<v Speaker 2>simple deal. At this point, we stop bombing, you open the.

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<v Speaker 1>Straight and what would that take.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's start by observing that what Iran has done is

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<v Speaker 2>they have not hard closed the straight. They have virtually

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<v Speaker 2>closed the straight, and they've done that by blowing up

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<v Speaker 2>a handful of tankers, saying any other tankers we don't like,

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to blow up with drones. They put some

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<v Speaker 2>smart mines in the water that they have control over,

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<v Speaker 2>but they haven't really hard closed it. I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>worth noting they haven't done that, which means there's still

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<v Speaker 2>room to maneuver here. And I would say that if

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<v Speaker 2>we were to fail diplomatically and have to militarily open

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<v Speaker 2>the strait, you need more mind sweepers to be on

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<v Speaker 2>station prepared. You need more guided missile frigates, destroyers, cruisers

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<v Speaker 2>to protect shipping going in and out. You need special

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<v Speaker 2>forces on small boats to counter the Iranian small boats.

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<v Speaker 2>You need to destroy more of the Iranian attack capability

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<v Speaker 2>along the littoral of the Strait itself, but again it'll

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<v Speaker 2>be costly. It would be far better that we got

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<v Speaker 2>to a negotiation here.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it possible to do that kind of clearing that

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<v Speaker 1>you just described militarily well? Fighting is still underwear? Does

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<v Speaker 1>the fighting have to cease?

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<v Speaker 2>Effectively? Fighting has to cease as follows, You have to

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<v Speaker 2>bring complete air superiority over that particular area, meaning you've

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<v Speaker 2>got to be able to stop the drones. You have

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<v Speaker 2>to go after the longer range Iranian capabilities. By the way,

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<v Speaker 2>there happens to be an admiral in overall command of

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<v Speaker 2>the mission, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of Central Command.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what Admiral Cooper is doing right now, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Iranians are cognizant of that as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Retired Admiral James Tavritez was the Supreme Allied Commander of

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<v Speaker 1>NATO after the break. His thoughts on what role the

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<v Speaker 1>Alliance could play in helping to reopen the Strait. You've

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<v Speaker 1>had a lot of big jobs you served as NATO

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<v Speaker 1>Supreme Allied Commander. You've spoken passionately about the importance of

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<v Speaker 1>that NATO alliance. This is what the President posted on

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<v Speaker 1>social media on Thursday morning. NATO nations have done absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>nothing to help with the lunatic nation now militarily decimated

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<v Speaker 1>of Iran. The USA needs nothing from NATO. But never

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<v Speaker 1>forget this very important point in time. Over the last

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.360
<v Speaker 1>few weeks, we've heard the President disparage longstanding US allies,

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 1>then call for their help, then criticize them once again.

0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:31.239
<v Speaker 1>How do you see this conflict? The Iran war impacting

0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:33.920
<v Speaker 1>relationships between the US and its allies, many of which

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:35.040
<v Speaker 1>were already understrained.

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:39.280
<v Speaker 2>We've been under kind of a roller coaster with NATO

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 2>since Trump came back into office. The good news is

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 2>NATO has been gradually increasing defense spending from kind of

0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:52.800
<v Speaker 2>sub two percent now NATO's pushing up to three and

0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 2>a half percent, maybe four percent, depending on how you

0:14:56.440 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 2>score it. So that's a positive event. On the other hand,

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 2>the Greenland episode where the United States appeared to really

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.400
<v Speaker 2>lean in talk about the eighty second airborne I saw

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:12.000
<v Speaker 2>actual tweets from people saying, yeah, the eighty seconds on

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:17.640
<v Speaker 2>their way to nook Greenland. That really rattled Europe's confidence

0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 2>in the United States. And by the way, I think

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 2>the Danes would have fought, They would have blown up

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 2>those runways, they would have put special forces there. That

0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.080
<v Speaker 2>was a pretty dangerous moment for the alliance. That was

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 2>kind of a troughs. Now we're we've come back out

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 2>of that, but now we have the current crisis in

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 2>the Gulf. And so for the Europeans, as you assess

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 2>their behavior, you need to kind of put it through

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 2>the filter of how they'd been treated in Trump one

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:53.320
<v Speaker 2>and in Trump two. We tend to not remember this

0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.520
<v Speaker 2>in the United States somehow, but I commanded a mission

0:15:56.560 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 2>in Afghanistan for four years fighting in Afghanistan because we

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 2>were attacked in New York and in Washington, d c.

0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 2>Thousands of Americans were killed. We went to war, and

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:15.960
<v Speaker 2>who came with us the Europeans, and they fought and

0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:20.280
<v Speaker 2>died in great numbers. So don't tell me NATO hasn't

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:24.280
<v Speaker 2>stood with us in combat. Now we come to the

0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 2>current moment. By the way President Trump tends to use

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:33.400
<v Speaker 2>the word NATO, he really means the European Union more

0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 2>than anything else, but he means the nations of Europe.

0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:40.360
<v Speaker 2>I think President Trump would be wise to say to

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:44.840
<v Speaker 2>the Europeans. Look, we've got the offensive part of this.

0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 2>We're going to do the bombing. We will put the

0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.200
<v Speaker 2>troops on the ground if necessary. The Israelis are going

0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:53.440
<v Speaker 2>to do the bombing. Europe. Here's what we need. We

0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 2>need mind sweepers, we need guided missile frigates, we need

0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.960
<v Speaker 2>guid of missile destroyers. We need you to help open

0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 2>been the strait of horror moves. I think Europe would

0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:08.119
<v Speaker 2>take that mission gladly. And Mark Route, the Secretary General

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:12.600
<v Speaker 2>of NATO, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, know him well.

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:17.200
<v Speaker 2>He's kind of nudging the European allies in that direction.

0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm genuinely curious if there's been a moment in history

0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:23.679
<v Speaker 1>where we've seen this much military might brought to an

0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:26.679
<v Speaker 1>area and not used. I think of the conversation that

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 1>was happening around Venezuela head of the capture of Nicholas Maduro.

0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.200
<v Speaker 1>But there's an awful lot of equipment and personnel being

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 1>brought to the Middle East. Now, I think of Chekhov's gun.

0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:37.879
<v Speaker 1>If you see the gun, it has to be fired.

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 1>As you think about history, have there been moments when

0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:44.439
<v Speaker 1>there has been this much again military might marshaled and

0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:45.440
<v Speaker 1>not used in the end.

0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 2>Not that immediately leaps to mind. You should ask Claude

0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 2>that question. But I think that what is Jermaine is

0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 2>about twenty five years ago we marshaled this level of

0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:02.159
<v Speaker 2>forces off of Iraq, and we did invade, and we

0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:05.439
<v Speaker 2>were at war for twenty years. To me, that's the

0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.800
<v Speaker 2>cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we

0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:12.880
<v Speaker 2>desperately must avoid. I think we will again. I think

0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:17.080
<v Speaker 2>we will either negotiate or if we have to have

0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.520
<v Speaker 2>boots on the ground, they'll be used in a precise,

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:24.160
<v Speaker 2>direct and military way. But let's remember twenty five years ago.

0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:27.880
<v Speaker 2>We attacked Iraq twenty three years ago, I suppose, and

0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:32.800
<v Speaker 2>that experience was not the best for the United States.

0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.120
<v Speaker 1>This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.

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