Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The war in Iran
Speaker 1: is four weeks old. The US has deployed tens of
Speaker 1: billions of dollars of munitions in thousands of strikes, and
Speaker 1: more than forty five hundred people have been killed in
Speaker 1: the conflict. That's according to governments and non government agencies.
Speaker 1: And despite ten ships passing through the Strait of horm
Speaker 1: moves on Thursday in what President Trump has described as
Speaker 1: a gesture of goodwill, the strait remains effectively shut, choking
Speaker 1: off roughly twenty percent of the world's oil and gas,
Speaker 1: which has sent energy prices soaring. President Trump has threatened
Speaker 1: to strike Iranian energy sites if the country doesn't come
Speaker 1: to terms and reopen the Strait of Hormones, and he's
Speaker 1: issued a deadline that he's now pushed back twice. The
Speaker 1: game out how the conflict could unfold From here, I
Speaker 1: reached out to someone who is no stranger to high
Speaker 1: stakes military decisions, retired Admiral James Tavridas, who's also a
Speaker 1: calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is, among other things, the
Speaker 1: longest serving combatant commander in recent US history, and the
Speaker 1: co author of a series of novels, The latest, twenty
Speaker 1: eighty four, will be published in May, and Admiralstabritas sees
Speaker 1: the pressure rising on both sides to make a deal.
Speaker 2: There are two clocks ticking right now. One clock that's
Speaker 2: sticking is in Washington, and it's for the Trump administration.
Speaker 2: It's the gas prices, it's the cost of doing this,
Speaker 2: it's the public support. And it's November. It's the election
Speaker 2: in November. So that clock is ticking, and certainly it
Speaker 2: strikes midnight pretty soon. And for iron the clock here
Speaker 2: is their infrastructure. How much of their military do we destroy?
Speaker 2: How much of their defense industrial base, how much of
Speaker 2: their oil? How much of their electric grid? That clock
Speaker 2: strikes midnight and probably read to four weeks.
Speaker 1: He says, both countries have good reason to come to
Speaker 1: the table, but that's far from a guarantee.
Speaker 2: I think there's a two in three chance we get
Speaker 2: to a negotiated conclusion, call it sixty five percent. But
Speaker 2: the bad news is, and this is uncomfortably high, one
Speaker 2: in three chants therefore a thirty five percent chance that
Speaker 2: the Iranians do not follow the logic of this situation,
Speaker 2: decide they want to keep fighting. We keep bombing, and
Speaker 2: we then go after their critical infrastructure. They go after
Speaker 2: Gulf Arab critical infrastructure. Then we have a much more
Speaker 2: serious global economic challenge ahead.
Speaker 1: I'm David Garrett and this is the big take from
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, retired Admiral James Tavridaz
Speaker 1: on how sending thousands more US troops to the Middle
Speaker 1: East changes the chances of a diplomatic resolution to the
Speaker 1: Iran War and the risks Atmostrophvidus, you were the head
Speaker 1: of US Southern Command, US European Command, and from twenty
Speaker 1: nine to twenty thirteen you were Supreme Allied Commander of NATO.
Speaker 1: But before all of that, back in the nineteen eighties,
Speaker 1: you spent some time as a young sailor helping ships
Speaker 1: make their way through the Persian Gulf. So before we
Speaker 1: get into the details of US strategy and options in
Speaker 1: this particular war, I'm curious how that time in your
Speaker 1: life shapes the way that you're thinking about this conflict.
Speaker 2: It does immensely, and that's a smart question. This was
Speaker 2: in the late nineteen eighties and we were escorting Kuwaiti
Speaker 2: tankers which were flagged to the United States through the strait.
Speaker 2: This is during the Iran Iraq War, when the Iranians
Speaker 2: again closed the strait of horror moves. Two takeaways that
Speaker 2: continue to rattle around in this grizzled old admiral's brain.
Speaker 2: One is it's hard, it's navigationally challenged, and to do
Speaker 2: it under Iranian fire as we did in the nineteen
Speaker 2: eighties is doubly challenging. But a key thing to remember
Speaker 2: is they did not have drones. In number two, you
Speaker 2: have to open this straight. You cannot seed control of
Speaker 2: it to this rotten theocracy in Tehran. So how we
Speaker 2: get there? I hope we can do it diplomatically, but
Speaker 2: if necessary see paragraph one, we will open that straight.
Speaker 1: In recent weeks, the US has ordered some seven thousand
Speaker 1: more troops to the Middle East, around one thousand soldiers
Speaker 1: from the eighty second Airborne, five thousand troops from two
Speaker 1: marine expeditionary units. The thirty first, which deployed from Okinawa,
Speaker 1: should arrive in the coming days. The eleventh MEU will
Speaker 1: be in the region in three to four weeks. What
Speaker 1: is the decision to send those troops? Indicate to you
Speaker 1: about the broader objective here that the US has at
Speaker 1: this point.
Speaker 2: My supposition is that President Trump wants those troops to
Speaker 2: kind of hold them like a hammer over the head
Speaker 2: of the air Iranians and threaten actually seizing carg Island, which,
Speaker 2: as you know, David, is ninety percent of the Iranian
Speaker 2: oil flows through it. You really put a stake in
Speaker 2: the heart of the Iranian oil based economy. So President
Speaker 2: Trump is signaling to the Iranians not only am I
Speaker 2: bombing broadly across the entire vast nation of Iran, but
Speaker 2: I also have precise boots on the ground options. Seven
Speaker 2: thousand troops is not a huge force. They're not going
Speaker 2: to conquer Iran, but you could use them in precise
Speaker 2: ways to try and move the negotiation along.
Speaker 1: Could you walk us through what the stages of a
Speaker 1: mission to take carg Island would look like and maybe
Speaker 1: give us your sense of what the US could stand
Speaker 1: to gain or lose by undertaking a mission like that.
Speaker 2: Sure, let's go back to those marines at see the
Speaker 2: first tranch of them, The thirty first Marine Expeditionary Unit
Speaker 2: have arrived just outside of the Strait of Horn Mouse.
Speaker 2: They've got to get through the strait, which the Iranians
Speaker 2: will oppose deeply that they got to get through mines,
Speaker 2: ballistic missiles, small boats above all the drones. Once they
Speaker 2: get through that, now they still david have three hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty miles to go to get up to Carg Island.
Speaker 2: In that stretch of water, Iran will continue to attack them.
Speaker 2: I could see terrorist attacks against them from small Iranian
Speaker 2: supposedly civilian craft, more drone attacks. Now you're off the
Speaker 2: coast of Carg Island, so here you depend on Central
Speaker 2: Command air cover to make sure there's a bubble over
Speaker 2: you in effect, and the sea the fifth Fleet is
Speaker 2: protecting you. Now those Marines will get on osprey aircraft.
Speaker 2: They're kind of in between a plane and a helicopter.
Speaker 2: They'll start going ashore by air. There'll be some seaborn
Speaker 2: component of them. You bring them ashore at a relative
Speaker 2: undefended corner of this island. Cargo is about a third
Speaker 2: of the size of Manhattan. You pick a couple of points,
Speaker 2: bring in the Marines, seize the base. Now they're locked
Speaker 2: down in a well known place and it's within artillery
Speaker 2: range of the Iranian coast itself, and there are twenty thousand,
Speaker 2: maybe thirty thousand Iranians on the island that you have
Speaker 2: to control. Most of them are civilian oil workers who
Speaker 2: just want to stay out of the line of fire.
Speaker 2: They have no interest in getting in the crossfire between
Speaker 2: US Marines and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If I'm Tehran
Speaker 2: right now, I'm increasing my forces on the island. I'm
Speaker 2: putting booby traps in place, putting land mines at the
Speaker 2: places where I think you might land. I'm putting drones overhead,
Speaker 2: very small ones so I can maintain surveillance. So they're
Speaker 2: preparing for this. It's a very challenging mission. It's kind
Speaker 2: of easy for me to sit here and say it,
Speaker 2: but to execute that mission will be costly in terms
Speaker 2: of lives and equipment. Final point, if I were advising
Speaker 2: the administration, I would say, maybe a better idea of
Speaker 2: blockade the island. Have the fifth fleet. Just shut it down.
Speaker 2: Tell the world don't bother going to Carg Islands no
Speaker 2: longer open for business. Tell the Iranians you can do
Speaker 2: all you want with the oil that's stored there, but
Speaker 2: it's not leaving Carg Island. I think that might make
Speaker 2: more sense.
Speaker 1: What else might be on the table for the US
Speaker 1: as they think about where they might deploy troops in
Speaker 1: this region.
Speaker 2: I'll give you three other options that kind of pop
Speaker 2: into my head. One is the island of Larrac right
Speaker 2: at the very northern tip of the Strait of Hormuz,
Speaker 2: and Larac is very important because it controls the top
Speaker 2: of the straits. Heavy defended, but seizing that I think
Speaker 2: would have some military utility. A second one is there
Speaker 2: are a pair of islands that are claimed by both
Speaker 2: Iran and the UAE. This is Abu musa island and
Speaker 2: Tomb also in that vicinity. So if you took those islands,
Speaker 2: you'd have land right at the top of the strait.
Speaker 2: That would help you defend it and keep it open.
Speaker 2: But if you really want to lock down the strait,
Speaker 2: you've got to control both sides of it, both the
Speaker 2: Arab side and the Persian side. And then third, and
Speaker 2: actually more dangerous than anything we've talked about, would be
Speaker 2: going into Iran, deeply into Iran, and going after the
Speaker 2: nuclear material that they have. They have nine hundred pounds
Speaker 2: maybe one thousand pounds of enriched uranium. It's not quite
Speaker 2: weapons grade, but it's very close to where is it.
Speaker 2: It's at the bottom of supposedly of Isfahan under concrete.
Speaker 2: You'd have to have a thousand plus troops to defend
Speaker 2: the area, put up all the air cover, and then
Speaker 2: have the seals in the green berets wait for it,
Speaker 2: civilian technicians who know how to manage all this. It
Speaker 2: is a very difficult mission. It would be literally the
Speaker 2: largest special forces operation in history. I want to say
Speaker 2: I'm not advocating those missions. I firmly believe we need
Speaker 2: to get to a diplomatic resolution here. But you know,
Speaker 2: soft power without the ability to apply hard power is
Speaker 2: no power. So move the forces, set the table, and
Speaker 2: then go to the Iranians and say, look, we really
Speaker 2: want to settle this at a negotiating table, not on
Speaker 2: carg Island.
Speaker 1: I want to shift to opening up the straight and
Speaker 1: you've laid out ways in which the US could take
Speaker 1: over Carg Island other islands. Do those military options do
Speaker 1: much to hasten the process of getting oil flowing once again?
Speaker 1: Just draw the line for me from doing that to
Speaker 1: effectively opening up this strait once again.
Speaker 2: The theory of the case is that by holding hostage
Speaker 2: this ninety percent of the Iranian oil, we could then
Speaker 2: go to the Iranians and say, carg Island. Nice little
Speaker 2: operation you got going here. Boy, it'd be a shame
Speaker 2: if we had to blow it all up. How about
Speaker 2: if we go ahead and open the straits and then
Speaker 2: we can have a conversation. Let's get to a very
Speaker 2: simple deal. At this point, we stop bombing, you open the.
Speaker 1: Straight and what would that take.
Speaker 2: Let's start by observing that what Iran has done is
Speaker 2: they have not hard closed the straight. They have virtually
Speaker 2: closed the straight, and they've done that by blowing up
Speaker 2: a handful of tankers, saying any other tankers we don't like,
Speaker 2: we're going to blow up with drones. They put some
Speaker 2: smart mines in the water that they have control over,
Speaker 2: but they haven't really hard closed it. I think it's
Speaker 2: worth noting they haven't done that, which means there's still
Speaker 2: room to maneuver here. And I would say that if
Speaker 2: we were to fail diplomatically and have to militarily open
Speaker 2: the strait, you need more mind sweepers to be on
Speaker 2: station prepared. You need more guided missile frigates, destroyers, cruisers
Speaker 2: to protect shipping going in and out. You need special
Speaker 2: forces on small boats to counter the Iranian small boats.
Speaker 2: You need to destroy more of the Iranian attack capability
Speaker 2: along the littoral of the Strait itself, but again it'll
Speaker 2: be costly. It would be far better that we got
Speaker 2: to a negotiation here.
Speaker 1: Is it possible to do that kind of clearing that
Speaker 1: you just described militarily well? Fighting is still underwear? Does
Speaker 1: the fighting have to cease?
Speaker 2: Effectively? Fighting has to cease as follows, You have to
Speaker 2: bring complete air superiority over that particular area, meaning you've
Speaker 2: got to be able to stop the drones. You have
Speaker 2: to go after the longer range Iranian capabilities. By the way,
Speaker 2: there happens to be an admiral in overall command of
Speaker 2: the mission, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of Central Command.
Speaker 2: That's what Admiral Cooper is doing right now, and I
Speaker 2: think the Iranians are cognizant of that as well.
Speaker 1: Retired Admiral James Tavritez was the Supreme Allied Commander of
Speaker 1: NATO after the break. His thoughts on what role the
Speaker 1: Alliance could play in helping to reopen the Strait. You've
Speaker 1: had a lot of big jobs you served as NATO
Speaker 1: Supreme Allied Commander. You've spoken passionately about the importance of
Speaker 1: that NATO alliance. This is what the President posted on
Speaker 1: social media on Thursday morning. NATO nations have done absolutely
Speaker 1: nothing to help with the lunatic nation now militarily decimated
Speaker 1: of Iran. The USA needs nothing from NATO. But never
Speaker 1: forget this very important point in time. Over the last
Speaker 1: few weeks, we've heard the President disparage longstanding US allies,
Speaker 1: then call for their help, then criticize them once again.
Speaker 1: How do you see this conflict? The Iran war impacting
Speaker 1: relationships between the US and its allies, many of which
Speaker 1: were already understrained.
Speaker 2: We've been under kind of a roller coaster with NATO
Speaker 2: since Trump came back into office. The good news is
Speaker 2: NATO has been gradually increasing defense spending from kind of
Speaker 2: sub two percent now NATO's pushing up to three and
Speaker 2: a half percent, maybe four percent, depending on how you
Speaker 2: score it. So that's a positive event. On the other hand,
Speaker 2: the Greenland episode where the United States appeared to really
Speaker 2: lean in talk about the eighty second airborne I saw
Speaker 2: actual tweets from people saying, yeah, the eighty seconds on
Speaker 2: their way to nook Greenland. That really rattled Europe's confidence
Speaker 2: in the United States. And by the way, I think
Speaker 2: the Danes would have fought, They would have blown up
Speaker 2: those runways, they would have put special forces there. That
Speaker 2: was a pretty dangerous moment for the alliance. That was
Speaker 2: kind of a troughs. Now we're we've come back out
Speaker 2: of that, but now we have the current crisis in
Speaker 2: the Gulf. And so for the Europeans, as you assess
Speaker 2: their behavior, you need to kind of put it through
Speaker 2: the filter of how they'd been treated in Trump one
Speaker 2: and in Trump two. We tend to not remember this
Speaker 2: in the United States somehow, but I commanded a mission
Speaker 2: in Afghanistan for four years fighting in Afghanistan because we
Speaker 2: were attacked in New York and in Washington, d c.
Speaker 2: Thousands of Americans were killed. We went to war, and
Speaker 2: who came with us the Europeans, and they fought and
Speaker 2: died in great numbers. So don't tell me NATO hasn't
Speaker 2: stood with us in combat. Now we come to the
Speaker 2: current moment. By the way President Trump tends to use
Speaker 2: the word NATO, he really means the European Union more
Speaker 2: than anything else, but he means the nations of Europe.
Speaker 2: I think President Trump would be wise to say to
Speaker 2: the Europeans. Look, we've got the offensive part of this.
Speaker 2: We're going to do the bombing. We will put the
Speaker 2: troops on the ground if necessary. The Israelis are going
Speaker 2: to do the bombing. Europe. Here's what we need. We
Speaker 2: need mind sweepers, we need guided missile frigates, we need
Speaker 2: guid of missile destroyers. We need you to help open
Speaker 2: been the strait of horror moves. I think Europe would
Speaker 2: take that mission gladly. And Mark Route, the Secretary General
Speaker 2: of NATO, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, know him well.
Speaker 2: He's kind of nudging the European allies in that direction.
Speaker 1: I'm genuinely curious if there's been a moment in history
Speaker 1: where we've seen this much military might brought to an
Speaker 1: area and not used. I think of the conversation that
Speaker 1: was happening around Venezuela head of the capture of Nicholas Maduro.
Speaker 1: But there's an awful lot of equipment and personnel being
Speaker 1: brought to the Middle East. Now, I think of Chekhov's gun.
Speaker 1: If you see the gun, it has to be fired.
Speaker 1: As you think about history, have there been moments when
Speaker 1: there has been this much again military might marshaled and
Speaker 1: not used in the end.
Speaker 2: Not that immediately leaps to mind. You should ask Claude
Speaker 2: that question. But I think that what is Jermaine is
Speaker 2: about twenty five years ago we marshaled this level of
Speaker 2: forces off of Iraq, and we did invade, and we
Speaker 2: were at war for twenty years. To me, that's the
Speaker 2: cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we
Speaker 2: desperately must avoid. I think we will again. I think
Speaker 2: we will either negotiate or if we have to have
Speaker 2: boots on the ground, they'll be used in a precise,
Speaker 2: direct and military way. But let's remember twenty five years ago.
Speaker 2: We attacked Iraq twenty three years ago, I suppose, and
Speaker 2: that experience was not the best for the United States.
Speaker 1: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.
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