1 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The war in Iran 2 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: is four weeks old. The US has deployed tens of 3 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: billions of dollars of munitions in thousands of strikes, and 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: more than forty five hundred people have been killed in 5 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: the conflict. That's according to governments and non government agencies. 6 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: And despite ten ships passing through the Strait of horm 7 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: moves on Thursday in what President Trump has described as 8 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: a gesture of goodwill, the strait remains effectively shut, choking 9 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 1: off roughly twenty percent of the world's oil and gas, 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: which has sent energy prices soaring. President Trump has threatened 11 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,319 Speaker 1: to strike Iranian energy sites if the country doesn't come 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,279 Speaker 1: to terms and reopen the Strait of Hormones, and he's 13 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: issued a deadline that he's now pushed back twice. The 14 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: game out how the conflict could unfold From here, I 15 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: reached out to someone who is no stranger to high 16 00:00:56,080 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: stakes military decisions, retired Admiral James Tavridas, who's also a 17 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is, among other things, the 18 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: longest serving combatant commander in recent US history, and the 19 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: co author of a series of novels, The latest, twenty 20 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: eighty four, will be published in May, and Admiralstabritas sees 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: the pressure rising on both sides to make a deal. 22 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 2: There are two clocks ticking right now. One clock that's 23 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: sticking is in Washington, and it's for the Trump administration. 24 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 2: It's the gas prices, it's the cost of doing this, 25 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 2: it's the public support. And it's November. It's the election 26 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 2: in November. So that clock is ticking, and certainly it 27 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 2: strikes midnight pretty soon. And for iron the clock here 28 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 2: is their infrastructure. How much of their military do we destroy? 29 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 2: How much of their defense industrial base, how much of 30 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 2: their oil? How much of their electric grid? That clock 31 00:01:56,440 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: strikes midnight and probably read to four weeks. 32 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: He says, both countries have good reason to come to 33 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: the table, but that's far from a guarantee. 34 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 2: I think there's a two in three chance we get 35 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: to a negotiated conclusion, call it sixty five percent. But 36 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 2: the bad news is, and this is uncomfortably high, one 37 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 2: in three chants therefore a thirty five percent chance that 38 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 2: the Iranians do not follow the logic of this situation, 39 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 2: decide they want to keep fighting. We keep bombing, and 40 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 2: we then go after their critical infrastructure. They go after 41 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: Gulf Arab critical infrastructure. Then we have a much more 42 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 2: serious global economic challenge ahead. 43 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: I'm David Garrett and this is the big take from 44 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, retired Admiral James Tavridaz 45 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: on how sending thousands more US troops to the Middle 46 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: East changes the chances of a diplomatic resolution to the 47 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: Iran War and the risks Atmostrophvidus, you were the head 48 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: of US Southern Command, US European Command, and from twenty 49 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: nine to twenty thirteen you were Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. 50 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: But before all of that, back in the nineteen eighties, 51 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: you spent some time as a young sailor helping ships 52 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: make their way through the Persian Gulf. So before we 53 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: get into the details of US strategy and options in 54 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: this particular war, I'm curious how that time in your 55 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: life shapes the way that you're thinking about this conflict. 56 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 2: It does immensely, and that's a smart question. This was 57 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 2: in the late nineteen eighties and we were escorting Kuwaiti 58 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 2: tankers which were flagged to the United States through the strait. 59 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: This is during the Iran Iraq War, when the Iranians 60 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 2: again closed the strait of horror moves. Two takeaways that 61 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 2: continue to rattle around in this grizzled old admiral's brain. 62 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 2: One is it's hard, it's navigationally challenged, and to do 63 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: it under Iranian fire as we did in the nineteen 64 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 2: eighties is doubly challenging. But a key thing to remember 65 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 2: is they did not have drones. In number two, you 66 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 2: have to open this straight. You cannot seed control of 67 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 2: it to this rotten theocracy in Tehran. So how we 68 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 2: get there? I hope we can do it diplomatically, but 69 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 2: if necessary see paragraph one, we will open that straight. 70 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 1: In recent weeks, the US has ordered some seven thousand 71 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: more troops to the Middle East, around one thousand soldiers 72 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: from the eighty second Airborne, five thousand troops from two 73 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,799 Speaker 1: marine expeditionary units. The thirty first, which deployed from Okinawa, 74 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: should arrive in the coming days. The eleventh MEU will 75 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 1: be in the region in three to four weeks. What 76 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: is the decision to send those troops? Indicate to you 77 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: about the broader objective here that the US has at 78 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: this point. 79 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 2: My supposition is that President Trump wants those troops to 80 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 2: kind of hold them like a hammer over the head 81 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 2: of the air Iranians and threaten actually seizing carg Island, which, 82 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 2: as you know, David, is ninety percent of the Iranian 83 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 2: oil flows through it. You really put a stake in 84 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 2: the heart of the Iranian oil based economy. So President 85 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 2: Trump is signaling to the Iranians not only am I 86 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 2: bombing broadly across the entire vast nation of Iran, but 87 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 2: I also have precise boots on the ground options. Seven 88 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 2: thousand troops is not a huge force. They're not going 89 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: to conquer Iran, but you could use them in precise 90 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 2: ways to try and move the negotiation along. 91 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: Could you walk us through what the stages of a 92 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 1: mission to take carg Island would look like and maybe 93 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: give us your sense of what the US could stand 94 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: to gain or lose by undertaking a mission like that. 95 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 2: Sure, let's go back to those marines at see the 96 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 2: first tranch of them, The thirty first Marine Expeditionary Unit 97 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 2: have arrived just outside of the Strait of Horn Mouse. 98 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: They've got to get through the strait, which the Iranians 99 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 2: will oppose deeply that they got to get through mines, 100 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 2: ballistic missiles, small boats above all the drones. Once they 101 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,119 Speaker 2: get through that, now they still david have three hundred 102 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 2: and fifty miles to go to get up to Carg Island. 103 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 2: In that stretch of water, Iran will continue to attack them. 104 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: I could see terrorist attacks against them from small Iranian 105 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 2: supposedly civilian craft, more drone attacks. Now you're off the 106 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 2: coast of Carg Island, so here you depend on Central 107 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 2: Command air cover to make sure there's a bubble over 108 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 2: you in effect, and the sea the fifth Fleet is 109 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 2: protecting you. Now those Marines will get on osprey aircraft. 110 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: They're kind of in between a plane and a helicopter. 111 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 2: They'll start going ashore by air. There'll be some seaborn 112 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 2: component of them. You bring them ashore at a relative 113 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 2: undefended corner of this island. Cargo is about a third 114 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 2: of the size of Manhattan. You pick a couple of points, 115 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 2: bring in the Marines, seize the base. Now they're locked 116 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 2: down in a well known place and it's within artillery 117 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 2: range of the Iranian coast itself, and there are twenty thousand, 118 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 2: maybe thirty thousand Iranians on the island that you have 119 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 2: to control. Most of them are civilian oil workers who 120 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 2: just want to stay out of the line of fire. 121 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 2: They have no interest in getting in the crossfire between 122 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: US Marines and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If I'm Tehran 123 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 2: right now, I'm increasing my forces on the island. I'm 124 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 2: putting booby traps in place, putting land mines at the 125 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 2: places where I think you might land. I'm putting drones overhead, 126 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 2: very small ones so I can maintain surveillance. So they're 127 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 2: preparing for this. It's a very challenging mission. It's kind 128 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: of easy for me to sit here and say it, 129 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 2: but to execute that mission will be costly in terms 130 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: of lives and equipment. Final point, if I were advising 131 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: the administration, I would say, maybe a better idea of 132 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 2: blockade the island. Have the fifth fleet. Just shut it down. 133 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: Tell the world don't bother going to Carg Islands no 134 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 2: longer open for business. Tell the Iranians you can do 135 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 2: all you want with the oil that's stored there, but 136 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 2: it's not leaving Carg Island. I think that might make 137 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 2: more sense. 138 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: What else might be on the table for the US 139 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: as they think about where they might deploy troops in 140 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: this region. 141 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 2: I'll give you three other options that kind of pop 142 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 2: into my head. One is the island of Larrac right 143 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 2: at the very northern tip of the Strait of Hormuz, 144 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 2: and Larac is very important because it controls the top 145 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: of the straits. Heavy defended, but seizing that I think 146 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 2: would have some military utility. A second one is there 147 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 2: are a pair of islands that are claimed by both 148 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 2: Iran and the UAE. This is Abu musa island and 149 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 2: Tomb also in that vicinity. So if you took those islands, 150 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: you'd have land right at the top of the strait. 151 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 2: That would help you defend it and keep it open. 152 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 2: But if you really want to lock down the strait, 153 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 2: you've got to control both sides of it, both the 154 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 2: Arab side and the Persian side. And then third, and 155 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 2: actually more dangerous than anything we've talked about, would be 156 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 2: going into Iran, deeply into Iran, and going after the 157 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 2: nuclear material that they have. They have nine hundred pounds 158 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 2: maybe one thousand pounds of enriched uranium. It's not quite 159 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 2: weapons grade, but it's very close to where is it. 160 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 2: It's at the bottom of supposedly of Isfahan under concrete. 161 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 2: You'd have to have a thousand plus troops to defend 162 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 2: the area, put up all the air cover, and then 163 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 2: have the seals in the green berets wait for it, 164 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 2: civilian technicians who know how to manage all this. It 165 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: is a very difficult mission. It would be literally the 166 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 2: largest special forces operation in history. I want to say 167 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 2: I'm not advocating those missions. I firmly believe we need 168 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 2: to get to a diplomatic resolution here. But you know, 169 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 2: soft power without the ability to apply hard power is 170 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 2: no power. So move the forces, set the table, and 171 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 2: then go to the Iranians and say, look, we really 172 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 2: want to settle this at a negotiating table, not on 173 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 2: carg Island. 174 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: I want to shift to opening up the straight and 175 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: you've laid out ways in which the US could take 176 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: over Carg Island other islands. Do those military options do 177 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: much to hasten the process of getting oil flowing once again? 178 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: Just draw the line for me from doing that to 179 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: effectively opening up this strait once again. 180 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 2: The theory of the case is that by holding hostage 181 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: this ninety percent of the Iranian oil, we could then 182 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 2: go to the Iranians and say, carg Island. Nice little 183 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 2: operation you got going here. Boy, it'd be a shame 184 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 2: if we had to blow it all up. How about 185 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 2: if we go ahead and open the straits and then 186 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 2: we can have a conversation. Let's get to a very 187 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 2: simple deal. At this point, we stop bombing, you open the. 188 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: Straight and what would that take. 189 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 2: Let's start by observing that what Iran has done is 190 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 2: they have not hard closed the straight. They have virtually 191 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: closed the straight, and they've done that by blowing up 192 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: a handful of tankers, saying any other tankers we don't like, 193 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 2: we're going to blow up with drones. They put some 194 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 2: smart mines in the water that they have control over, 195 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 2: but they haven't really hard closed it. I think it's 196 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 2: worth noting they haven't done that, which means there's still 197 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 2: room to maneuver here. And I would say that if 198 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 2: we were to fail diplomatically and have to militarily open 199 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 2: the strait, you need more mind sweepers to be on 200 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: station prepared. You need more guided missile frigates, destroyers, cruisers 201 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 2: to protect shipping going in and out. You need special 202 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 2: forces on small boats to counter the Iranian small boats. 203 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 2: You need to destroy more of the Iranian attack capability 204 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 2: along the littoral of the Strait itself, but again it'll 205 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 2: be costly. It would be far better that we got 206 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: to a negotiation here. 207 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 1: Is it possible to do that kind of clearing that 208 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: you just described militarily well? Fighting is still underwear? Does 209 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: the fighting have to cease? 210 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 2: Effectively? Fighting has to cease as follows, You have to 211 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: bring complete air superiority over that particular area, meaning you've 212 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 2: got to be able to stop the drones. You have 213 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 2: to go after the longer range Iranian capabilities. By the way, 214 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 2: there happens to be an admiral in overall command of 215 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 2: the mission, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of Central Command. 216 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: That's what Admiral Cooper is doing right now, and I 217 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:34,079 Speaker 2: think the Iranians are cognizant of that as well. 218 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: Retired Admiral James Tavritez was the Supreme Allied Commander of 219 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: NATO after the break. His thoughts on what role the 220 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: Alliance could play in helping to reopen the Strait. You've 221 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: had a lot of big jobs you served as NATO 222 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: Supreme Allied Commander. You've spoken passionately about the importance of 223 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: that NATO alliance. This is what the President posted on 224 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: social media on Thursday morning. NATO nations have done absolutely 225 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 1: nothing to help with the lunatic nation now militarily decimated 226 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: of Iran. The USA needs nothing from NATO. But never 227 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: forget this very important point in time. Over the last 228 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: few weeks, we've heard the President disparage longstanding US allies, 229 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: then call for their help, then criticize them once again. 230 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,239 Speaker 1: How do you see this conflict? The Iran war impacting 231 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: relationships between the US and its allies, many of which 232 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: were already understrained. 233 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 2: We've been under kind of a roller coaster with NATO 234 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 2: since Trump came back into office. The good news is 235 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: NATO has been gradually increasing defense spending from kind of 236 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 2: sub two percent now NATO's pushing up to three and 237 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 2: a half percent, maybe four percent, depending on how you 238 00:14:56,440 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 2: score it. So that's a positive event. On the other hand, 239 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 2: the Greenland episode where the United States appeared to really 240 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 2: lean in talk about the eighty second airborne I saw 241 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 2: actual tweets from people saying, yeah, the eighty seconds on 242 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: their way to nook Greenland. That really rattled Europe's confidence 243 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 2: in the United States. And by the way, I think 244 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 2: the Danes would have fought, They would have blown up 245 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 2: those runways, they would have put special forces there. That 246 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 2: was a pretty dangerous moment for the alliance. That was 247 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 2: kind of a troughs. Now we're we've come back out 248 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 2: of that, but now we have the current crisis in 249 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: the Gulf. And so for the Europeans, as you assess 250 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 2: their behavior, you need to kind of put it through 251 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 2: the filter of how they'd been treated in Trump one 252 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 2: and in Trump two. We tend to not remember this 253 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 2: in the United States somehow, but I commanded a mission 254 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 2: in Afghanistan for four years fighting in Afghanistan because we 255 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 2: were attacked in New York and in Washington, d c. 256 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 2: Thousands of Americans were killed. We went to war, and 257 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: who came with us the Europeans, and they fought and 258 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 2: died in great numbers. So don't tell me NATO hasn't 259 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 2: stood with us in combat. Now we come to the 260 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 2: current moment. By the way President Trump tends to use 261 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 2: the word NATO, he really means the European Union more 262 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 2: than anything else, but he means the nations of Europe. 263 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 2: I think President Trump would be wise to say to 264 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 2: the Europeans. Look, we've got the offensive part of this. 265 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 2: We're going to do the bombing. We will put the 266 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 2: troops on the ground if necessary. The Israelis are going 267 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 2: to do the bombing. Europe. Here's what we need. We 268 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 2: need mind sweepers, we need guided missile frigates, we need 269 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 2: guid of missile destroyers. We need you to help open 270 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 2: been the strait of horror moves. I think Europe would 271 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 2: take that mission gladly. And Mark Route, the Secretary General 272 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 2: of NATO, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, know him well. 273 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 2: He's kind of nudging the European allies in that direction. 274 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: I'm genuinely curious if there's been a moment in history 275 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,679 Speaker 1: where we've seen this much military might brought to an 276 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 1: area and not used. I think of the conversation that 277 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: was happening around Venezuela head of the capture of Nicholas Maduro. 278 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 1: But there's an awful lot of equipment and personnel being 279 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: brought to the Middle East. Now, I think of Chekhov's gun. 280 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: If you see the gun, it has to be fired. 281 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: As you think about history, have there been moments when 282 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,439 Speaker 1: there has been this much again military might marshaled and 283 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: not used in the end. 284 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 2: Not that immediately leaps to mind. You should ask Claude 285 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 2: that question. But I think that what is Jermaine is 286 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 2: about twenty five years ago we marshaled this level of 287 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 2: forces off of Iraq, and we did invade, and we 288 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,439 Speaker 2: were at war for twenty years. To me, that's the 289 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 2: cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we 290 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 2: desperately must avoid. I think we will again. I think 291 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 2: we will either negotiate or if we have to have 292 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 2: boots on the ground, they'll be used in a precise, 293 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 2: direct and military way. But let's remember twenty five years ago. 294 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 2: We attacked Iraq twenty three years ago, I suppose, and 295 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 2: that experience was not the best for the United States. 296 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. 297 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: The show is hosted by Me, Sarah Holder, and wanha. 298 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 1: The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Jeff Grocott, 299 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: Eleanor Harrison, Dengate, Patty Hirsch, Rachel Lewis, Krisky, Katie mcmurran, 300 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: Naomi and Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Shaven, Alex Segura, 301 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: Julia Weaver, Young Young and Tada Yasuzawa. There's much more 302 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg dot Com, yet unlimited access to all of 303 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: our coverage at a special rate for listeners at Bloomberg 304 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: dot Com slash Podcast Offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be 305 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 1: back on Monday.