1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,479 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 3: We start with eyes on Germany by way of Ukraine, 6 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,479 Speaker 3: as the Ukraine Contact Group meeting convenes in Germany with 7 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 3: key international allies, the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announcing 8 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 3: thirty one ABRAMS tanks will arrive in Germany next month, 9 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 3: with roughly two hundred and fifty Ukrainian troops expected to 10 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 3: begin training on these tanks shortly thereafter. 11 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 4: But no fighter jets. 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: Knowing they still loom large on the wish list for Ukraine, 13 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 3: as we discussed yesterday on Balance of Power on Bloomberg 14 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 3: TV with Urisak, who advises Ukraine's Defence Minister. 15 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 5: There are still certain things on a wish list if 16 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 5: you like, which we have not received and we hope 17 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 5: to receive. They include, for example, long range missiles, They 18 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 5: include fighter jets F sixteen's, and of course we need 19 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 5: more air defense systems. 20 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 3: But not so much by Lloyd Austin when asked by 21 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 3: a reporter of the US, we'll consider sending the F 22 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 3: sixteens to Ukraine in the footsteps of fellow allies Poland 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 3: and Slovakia. For now, we're focused on the ground right. 24 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 6: Now, what we all believe is what Ukraine needs most 25 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 6: urgently is ground based air defense capability. That is what 26 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 6: has enabled them to prevent the Russian air forces from 27 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 6: having a meaningful impact in this fight. 28 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 3: This is where we begin the conversation with Ward Carroll, 29 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 3: delighted to say he's back with US military analysts, of course, 30 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 3: former naval aviator who flew in F fourteen jets helping 31 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 3: to reinforce and enforce the no fly zone over Iraq. 32 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: Of course, the namesake of the Ward Carol YouTube channel. Commander, 33 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 3: it's great to have you back. Welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. 34 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: We've spoken very specifically in the past about the weapons 35 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 3: systems that would work better in Ukraine as they attempt 36 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 3: to close the skies to use President Zelenski's term, ahead 37 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 3: of this spring offensive that could be beginning as we speak. 38 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 3: Are they correct that F sixteen's would be a game changer. 39 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 7: I don't have to be a game changer. It's sort 40 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 7: of an additive capability I think Secretary of Austin is 41 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 7: at once right and a little bit wrong. The focus 42 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 7: is on the ground war. I'm happy to hear that 43 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 7: they're getting the APRAMS tanks almost eight months ahead of 44 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 7: when the original scheduler was getting them two Ukraine. That's 45 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 7: a game changer potentially. So when we talk about the 46 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 7: air threat in the air war, we got to think holistically. 47 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 7: It's not so much just dogfighting canon F sixteen be 48 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 7: to mid twenty nine or an SU twenty five. It's 49 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 7: more do you have suppression of enny air defense jamming 50 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 7: capability that will shut down the air defenses so that 51 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 7: these F sixteens won't just troll into a st and 52 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 7: gets shot down on the first sortie, which is the 53 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 7: fear of a lot of pundits and people who understand 54 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 7: the nature of the air war there. So certainly whatever 55 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 7: amount of SYS teams we're talking about, they'll help. That's 56 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 7: a great airplane. I've flown the Navy aggressor variant of it. 57 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 7: It's an airplane that was ahead of its time. It's 58 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 7: still very very lethal. I know in the teaser you 59 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 7: were talking about other European nations that have given airplanes 60 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 7: so Slovakia gave four Make twenty nines, which were Make 61 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 7: twenty nine a's that they didn't want. So that's not 62 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 7: an amazing game change of capability. It looks great on paper, 63 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 7: but we need to think this through instead of just 64 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 7: sort of throwing equipment and munitions at them just because 65 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 7: it looks good on a spreadsheet or it sounds good, 66 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 7: you know when we're at NATO headquarters or whatever. So yes, 67 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 7: they need airplanes, they do, but we need to think 68 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 7: more broadly about the defense and depth capability that's going 69 00:03:58,680 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 7: to win this war. 70 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 3: Urisak made the point, and he's here in Washington and 71 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 3: Germany making the ask directly of the Defense Department and 72 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 3: hoping to come home with something to show for it, 73 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 3: that F sixteen's would be much more effective than, for instance, 74 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 3: the mid twenty nine that you mentioned those Russian made MiGs, 75 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 3: because they're more advanced, he says, in just having them 76 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 3: would be a deterrent that when Russia seeson F sixteen 77 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 3: take off from Ukraine, that they stand down. Is that realistic? 78 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 7: No, that's not realistic, I think. And again, when you 79 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 7: say F sixteen, there's a number of different models. So 80 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 7: the CJ model has harm missiles, the any radiation missiles 81 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 7: that if you put a CJ with a straight stick 82 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 7: fighter F sixteen, now you've had the robust presentation that 83 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 7: I'm talking about. One of these guys can shut down 84 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 7: the radar or keep it from illuminating in fear of 85 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 7: getting hit by a harm and the other one can patrol, 86 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 7: drop bombs, look for Russian airplanes whatever. So again we 87 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 7: got to think this through. What models are we giving 88 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 7: them and in what numbers? You know. So I'm just 89 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 7: afraid that it's too too all akart in terms of 90 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 7: the ask from time to time. 91 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 3: Now I understand, and there's been reluctance here in the US. 92 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 3: The Pentagon, the White House would tell you that this 93 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 3: would have an additional escalatory effect, that Russia sees US 94 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 3: providing fighter jets and could react on its own. Or 95 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 3: to your point, you get an F sixteen from the 96 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 3: US that's shot down, we get in a direct conflict 97 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 3: potentially with Russia. Do you see that kind of creep 98 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 3: coming from a gift like that. 99 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 7: We're already past creep, you know. I think these discussions 100 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 7: about escalatory are from a year ago. You know, we're 101 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 7: all in and so I think what this administration has 102 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 7: chosen to do. Obviously all of Congress doesn't agree. But 103 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 7: what this administration is chosen to do is support Ukraine 104 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 7: in terms of repelling the invaders. And I entreat the 105 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 7: listeners to go to the Institute for the Study of 106 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 7: War and look at their interactive map, because that map 107 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 7: has not changed for the last nine months. So, you know, 108 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 7: if we think this is the status quoth in Russia wins. 109 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 7: They carved out the don Boss and they almost have 110 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 7: a land bridge to Odessa or important seaport on the 111 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 7: black seat. What President Olinski wants to do is put 112 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 7: them is push that all the red you see or 113 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 7: pinkies on that map, make it blue, including Crimea, and 114 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 7: so that that's a that's a bold, you know strategy. 115 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 7: But that's where the Ukrainians are, you know, and I 116 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,679 Speaker 7: think the Western world should take a long look at 117 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 7: how sound that is with respect to you know, deterring 118 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 7: Putin from further aggression and you know, stabilizing the world order. 119 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 7: So again I think we're just talking about what jets 120 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 7: should they get. I've had a number of episodes that 121 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 7: we're talking about you because Swedish jet jets should they get, 122 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 7: you know, megs, should they get sixteens? That that's sort 123 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 7: of myopic, that's looking at the problem through soda straws. 124 00:06:58,400 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 7: We say the problem is broader. 125 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 4: It's great to talk to you. Word. 126 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 3: Thanks for your insights, unique as ever insights from Ward Carrol. 127 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 3: He's an expert, of course, he flew inn F fourteen 128 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 3: tomcasts for fifteen years after graduating from the Naval Academy, 129 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 3: named Naval Institute Press Author of the Year for his 130 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 3: novel Punk's War, and he referred to the War Carol 131 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 3: YouTube channel. I suggest you check it out if you're 132 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 3: interested in topics like this. We had another voice here 133 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 3: in Kelly Grico, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, with 134 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 3: an eye on this request. Kelly, thank you so much 135 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 3: for joining us here. I believe that you would agree 136 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 3: with Ward that the F sixteens might be more than 137 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 3: Ukraine needs. Maybe you can frame this in a different sense. 138 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 3: What would be your answer to Urisch's request? 139 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 8: Well, first, thank you for having me. I would frame 140 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 8: it a little differently and the sense of I think 141 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 8: it's about strategy and if we're thinking about what I 142 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 8: do think the air wars is incredibly important to this 143 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 8: war and particularly Ukraine's ability to defend against the Russians. 144 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 8: But their real success has been in denying air superiority 145 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,119 Speaker 8: to a much larger and more advanced Russian air force, 146 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 8: so that the Russians are not able to employ those 147 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 8: aircraft on the battlefield in a very effective way. And 148 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 8: the key thing then for the United States is to 149 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 8: support Ukraine and being able to continue with this successful strategy. 150 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 8: So essentially, they've used ground based air defenses, they're mobile, 151 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 8: they're distributed to be able to make the airspace so 152 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 8: threatening to Russian aircraft and we've seen lots of them 153 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 8: shot down that the Russians are essentially not operating very 154 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 8: often over Ukrainian airspace. I don't I think that switching 155 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 8: to the F sixteen is an attempt almost to make 156 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 8: the Ukrainian Air Force into the American Air Force. But 157 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 8: Ukraine faces a very different problem set. They are at 158 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 8: a quantitative and qualitative disadvantage against the Russians, and so 159 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 8: rather than fighting the Russians symmetrically with F sixteens, it's 160 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 8: a far more effective and smarter approach to continue with 161 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 8: an asymmetric strategy that's been successful so far. 162 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 4: That's fascinating. 163 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 3: I want you to go back to our interview yesterday 164 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 3: Kelly with Urisak, who is an advisor to Ukraine's defense minister, 165 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 3: making the case for US on balance of power TV 166 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg. 167 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 5: Air supremacy and air dominance are critical for any successful 168 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 5: military operations and without it, Without it, there is a 169 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 5: radical risk to the success of these operations, and of 170 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 5: course there is a risk of more loss of life 171 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 5: for us, for the Ukrainian Army. We value the life 172 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 5: of our soldiers, right, We don't treat them as canon forder. 173 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 5: We want to be successful in liberating our lands, and 174 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 5: we know that. You know fighter jets F sixteen's, there 175 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 5: are more than four thousand of those around the world, 176 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 5: and we just need. 177 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 3: Forty, just need forty, Kelly. But you think it's the 178 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 3: wrong idea, Yes, I think. 179 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 8: It's fundamentally the wrong idea, and I think it would 180 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 8: be a major strategic mistake actually on the part of Ukraine. 181 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:58,599 Speaker 8: I would just one of the things I think is 182 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 8: interesting that he commented on sort of the United States 183 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 8: and its own doctrine, and I would just say two 184 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 8: things about that. One is that Ukraine itself has provided 185 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 8: the best evidence that air superiority is not required for 186 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 8: military success on the ground. What is required, what isn't essential, 187 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 8: is the ability to deny air superiority to your adversary. 188 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 8: And if you'll notice, that's exactly what Secretary Austin is 189 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 8: emphasizing with the dispection about your defense. So I think, 190 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 8: you know, we even saw Ukraine on the counter offensive 191 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 8: last Hall without air superiority, and that was in part 192 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 8: enabled by that denial of air superiory or to Russia. 193 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 8: And the second thing I would just say is that 194 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 8: you know, you know, the United States has its own 195 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 8: biases towards offensive air operations, and we see that in 196 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 8: United States doctrine. I actually think there's a broader lesson 197 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 8: here for the United States as well from the Ukraine 198 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 8: War and other wars of recent times about how mobile, 199 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 8: ground based air defenses are really increasing the advantage of 200 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 8: defense relative to offense in air operations. So I think, 201 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 8: you know, I understand his desire to advocate for the 202 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 8: F sixteen, but I actually think the evidence on the 203 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 8: ground and in the air in Ukraine actually supports sending 204 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 8: more air defenses, not F sixteens. 205 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 3: So why aren't we just Pilon, Patriot missile systems and 206 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 3: high mars into Ukraine. I know that we're already sending some, 207 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 3: but they say they still need a lot more. 208 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 8: Yes, I mean, one answer is I wish we could. 209 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 8: You know, this is partly that we're dealing with the 210 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 8: last thirty years that the United States other Western countries 211 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,679 Speaker 8: were so dominant in the air space that we neglected 212 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 8: our air defenses and we don't have as much as 213 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 8: we would like now on offer to Ukraine. That said, 214 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 8: I do think there are some options here. 215 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 2: You know. 216 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 8: One recently there's been discussion about using the Sea Sparrow 217 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 8: to try to replace some of the missiles for the 218 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 8: boot launchers that Ukraine has. There's also I think, you know, 219 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,040 Speaker 8: there's going to maybe be increasing pressure perhaps on in 220 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 8: Israel and other countries to perhaps offer some air defenses. 221 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 8: You know, every air defense that we can get to 222 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 8: Ukraine is going to really matter now, particularly those longer 223 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 8: range And I think the other piece of it is 224 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 8: about strategy, because the reality is there not enough air 225 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 8: defense is probably in the world right now to create 226 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 8: the kind of impenetrable air defense bubble we would love 227 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 8: to have in Ukraine, and so it's going to be 228 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 8: about strategy in Ukraine making some really tough choices that 229 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 8: are forced upon them by the war between when do 230 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 8: they engage targets coming in from Russian aircraft and missiles 231 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 8: and drones using up some of their missile capability and 232 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 8: these launchers, and when do they decide the priority needs 233 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 8: to be this persistent our ability to persistently threaten Russian 234 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 8: aircraft and so we may actually have to take some losses, 235 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 8: accept some losses in order to preserve our missile stocks. 236 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 8: And that's I will recognize that is a horror choice 237 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 8: to have to make, particularly given the Russians target Ukrainians, 238 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 8: you know, cities and their infrastructure. But this is an 239 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 8: unfortunate reality of this war. 240 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're shooting that apartment buildings. What do we need 241 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 3: to be doing here then, with our own our own 242 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 3: security in mind, Kelly, when does the restocking begin? 243 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 7: Yees? 244 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 8: So, I mean there's a lot of discussion now about 245 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 8: ramping up production for these things, and that's that's being discussed. 246 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 8: I think there's you know, that's one issue is the 247 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 8: increasing production and is certainly increasing missile stocks in particular 248 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 8: for air defenses for you know, all sorts of systems. 249 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 8: The other piece, though, I think we need to also 250 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 8: look at is whether we have the right kinds of 251 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 8: air defense systems moving forward as well, including the Patriot system. 252 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 8: You know, in Ukraine they've been really successful because they're 253 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 8: so nimble at moving their air defense systems so quickly. 254 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 8: You know, they fire and they turn off the radars 255 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 8: and they move. They can move that system in about 256 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 8: ten to fifteen minutes after firing. You look at the 257 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 8: Patriot system, it takes more closer to an hour to 258 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 8: be able to do that. And so that might have 259 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 8: worked in the last thirty years and you know, an 260 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 8: environment that wasn't quite as contested, but moving forward, I 261 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 8: think we need to really start looking at our own 262 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 8: air defenses and including if we have the right systems. 263 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 3: Kelly Grico the panel's next. This is Bloomberg. You're listening 264 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 3: to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live 265 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 3: weekdays at one Eastern. 266 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, 267 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 268 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 269 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 270 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 3: As we assemble the panel, time to hear from Rick 271 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 3: and Jennie on this with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group 272 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 3: meeting in Germany. In questions about what we should be 273 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 3: providing and some answers as to what we are providing. 274 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 3: Something we just discussed with Ward Carroll and Kelly Grico. 275 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 3: The tanks are on the way. Pretty remarkable as the 276 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 3: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announces thirty one ABRAMS one to 277 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 3: one tanks will arrive next month in Germany. They were 278 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 3: not expected to arrive until months after that. General Mark Milly, 279 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 3: of course, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 280 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 3: speaking to the level of training that will accompany this equipment, there's. 281 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 9: About twenty five hundred Ukrainian soldiers conducting training right now 282 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 9: in Germany. Another eight thousand, eight hundred almost nine thousand 283 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 9: have completed training and have returned to Ukraine. And there 284 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 9: are sixty five Ukrainians that completed training on patried missile 285 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 9: systems just recently. 286 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano with us here for some 287 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,119 Speaker 3: analysis on this. Rick, are we having the right conversation 288 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 3: because it feels a little bit like a rerun Here 289 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 3: Ukraine asks for jets, we send something else. But in 290 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 3: this case, as we heard from both of our last guests, 291 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: these M one tanks might actually make a difference, despite 292 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 3: doubts to that effect a couple of months ago. 293 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 10: Yeah, no question. This narrative continues to share. And the 294 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 10: only people who seem to get it right of the Ukrainians. 295 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 10: I mean, they actually ask for all these things, and 296 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 10: they hope they get them all when they ask for them. 297 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 10: And of course the Biden administration's policy has been to 298 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 10: sort of you know, hand out this stuff in various tranches. 299 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 10: And the debate around the tanks was really interesting because 300 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 10: you know, basically, our allies forced us into committing to 301 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 10: these tanks before they would commit their tanks. And we 302 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 10: kept telling everybody who would listen, oh, you know, they're 303 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 10: not going to be able to figure out how to 304 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 10: drive a Neighborhm's tank. They're so sophisticated and it's so inefficient, 305 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 10: you know. And now it's like, hey, hurry those things up, 306 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 10: because we got to you know, spring offensive, and you know, 307 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 10: next thing, you know, what was supposed to take a year, 308 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 10: you know, has already started to arrive a few months later. 309 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 10: So it's so hard to sort of see through the 310 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 10: smoke of war here and try to understand what this 311 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 10: administration's policy is. But I feel like it's groundhog Day. 312 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: You know. 313 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 10: We hear this request from the Ukrainians and we say no, 314 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 10: and then we give them to them. And the longest 315 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 10: holdout is the discussion you just had around F sixteen's 316 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 10: and we'll see, I mean, my bed is a couple 317 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 10: months from now, we're going to see a few F 318 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 10: sixteens flying over the Ukraine airspace. 319 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 3: That would be the trend, that would continue the trend. Genie, 320 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 3: you say no for six months, then you say maybe, 321 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 3: Then all of a sudden they show up earlier than 322 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 3: we thought and we're training Ukrainian pilots. 323 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 4: Is that how this one ends? 324 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 11: It is? You know, it's almost like a big tease. 325 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 11: And to Rick's point, we've seen it over and over 326 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 11: and over again. And I think you're in your conversation 327 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 11: with Ward Carroll, you noted that the argument has been about, 328 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 11: you know, we don't want to escalate. Well, the reality 329 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 11: is he said we were all in. We need to 330 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 11: get over that. That's about a year old at this point, 331 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 11: but it's what we keep hearing, and you know, I 332 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 11: can't help but think that the administration is concerned because 333 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 11: while support in the US remains fairly high, like sixty 334 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 11: nine seventy percent of Americans support, there are signs that 335 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 11: that is diminishing, and we've got a president set to 336 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 11: potentially announce he is going to run for the presidency 337 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 11: again next week, and so I think that they may 338 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 11: be looking at these polls and thinking we got a 339 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 11: slow walk this, and that's what we are seeing. But 340 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 11: the reality is, if they don't give Ukraine what it 341 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 11: needs to make these moves this spring, we may be 342 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 11: sitting here next year, in the middle of a campaign year, 343 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 11: having the same discussion. And I think it's going to 344 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 11: be harder to have at that point. 345 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 3: You know, it's going to be harder, and that, you know, 346 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 3: to the point of Yurisak, who spoke to us yesterday 347 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 3: advising the Ukrainian Defense minister. His point was, why are 348 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 3: we waiting? Why don't we throw everything at this now? 349 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 5: Why waste time? Why give Russia the opportunity to build 350 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 5: up their capabilities? Why not end it soon? 351 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: Right? 352 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 5: Our thinking, our thinking is we need to change our 353 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 5: approach from we will stand with Ukraine for as long 354 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 5: as it takes to Let's finish it as soon as possible, 355 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 5: because every day results in the death of our people 356 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 5: and the death of our soldiers on the battlefield. Why procrastinate. 357 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 3: I know there's a bit of nuance there, Rick, but 358 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 3: how important is that shifting postures? So, hey, we're here 359 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 3: for as long as you need us to. No, let's 360 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 3: get this done now. 361 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 9: Yeah. 362 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 10: Look, I mean I think the first thing he's got 363 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 10: to do, and I totally agree with his approach on this, 364 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 10: is convinced the Biden administration that they can actually win 365 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 10: this fight. I mean, when you look at the approach 366 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,199 Speaker 10: we've taken since day one, we've been sort of, you know, 367 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 10: basically cheerleaders for the Russian outcome. Right, we keep saying, oh, well, 368 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 10: you know they were going to be in Kiev in 369 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,919 Speaker 10: the first week. Well that didn't turn out. Well, you know, 370 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 10: it's going to be really tough to get a you know, 371 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 10: Russians out of there. You know they're going to take 372 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 10: advantage of the winter. Well, you know, the Russians actually moved. 373 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 4: Ahead in the winter. 374 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 10: And now it's it's like there's no sensibility around the 375 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 10: idea that the Ukrainians can actually win this war. And 376 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 10: of course these leaked documents that everybody's been talking about 377 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 10: for the last week, you know, kind of reinforces that. 378 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 3: And so at the end. 379 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,479 Speaker 10: Of the day, this administration has got to decide do 380 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 10: they want to win or do they want a stalemate? 381 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 10: And from what I can tell, they've been playing into 382 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 10: a stalemate. And whether you call that escalation or de escalation, 383 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 10: I don't care, h'm I'm with your I think we 384 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 10: ought to We ought to get as much equipment and 385 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 10: training into that country as we can to try and 386 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 10: you know, ensure that the so that there's the integrity 387 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 10: of Ukraine is is is maintained, which is how we 388 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 10: feel about every country. 389 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 3: Just so we understand though, Rick, when you say the administration, 390 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 3: do you include the Pentagon? 391 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 10: Sure, Look, at the end of the day, the Pentagon 392 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 10: doesn't get to make these decisions. They make recommendations in 393 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 10: the White House. 394 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 3: But you hear very convincing arguments from Mark Milly and 395 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 3: Lloyd Austin, you have to think that that they're speaking honestly. 396 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 10: Right well, I think the honesty is that they want 397 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 10: to be helpful. And then the rubber hits the road 398 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 10: in meetings that are happening right now with the contact group, 399 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 10: you know, where they say, Okay, here's what we're willing 400 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 10: to give you. And some of that is limitations of 401 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 10: materials and training and some of those limitations of money. 402 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 7: Uh. 403 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 10: But when we talk about these kinds of things, where 404 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 10: in the areas where there are no limitations, and we 405 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 10: and we've withheld equipment like attack ems because we worry 406 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 10: about escalation and the only people who don't seem moreorried 407 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 10: about escalation of the Russians, And so why don't we 408 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 10: play at the same level of the game? 409 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 3: Ginny, you talked about briefly the politics that are creeping 410 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 3: in on this, the debate here in Washington about whether 411 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 3: we should be spending. 412 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 4: All this money. 413 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 3: That's going to get a lot harder when we have 414 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 3: a presidential campaign underway in earnest We understand Joe Biden 415 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 3: is going to make some sort of video announcement next 416 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 3: week and then it's on and that's going to change 417 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 3: the contours of this conversation. Arguing, I think to your 418 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 3: point that this window is closing even faster it is. 419 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 11: It's the election. It is quite frankly, war fatigue that 420 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 11: happens all the time. It is the expense, you know, 421 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 11: fifty billion and twenty twenty two, forty five billion, twenty 422 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 11: twenty three, the thousands of lives lost on the Ukrainian side, 423 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,360 Speaker 11: and the reality for some Americans that while they support 424 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,479 Speaker 11: Ukraine and they do not support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 425 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 11: they think we have our own domestic problems inflation, rising 426 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 11: prices that need to be addressed. And I think part 427 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 11: of this has to do with the Biden administration taking 428 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 11: the time to continue to make the case that this 429 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 11: is a national security issue for the US, that we 430 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 11: are not throwing this money at the Ukraine into this 431 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 11: war in a way to you know, somehow just give 432 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 11: it away somewhere else, but that this matters to us. 433 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 11: And you know, the President has done that on occasion, 434 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 11: but I think at this level of funding, you're going 435 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 11: to have to keep making that case. And I'm not 436 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 11: sure they've been able to do that in a sustained way. 437 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 11: And in their defense, it's hard to do that in 438 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 11: a sustained way over years, which is why the fatigue 439 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 11: starts to creep in. We've heard that on both the 440 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 11: Republican side and the Democratic side. If that starts to 441 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 11: close in, it may move into the all important middle. 442 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,920 Speaker 3: Meantime, Rick, we're nowhere on a budget and it looks 443 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 3: like it's going to end in a deal eventually between 444 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 3: Speaker McCarthy and Joe Biden. Moderates are getting a little 445 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 3: worried about this on both sides of the aisle. 446 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 4: What does it mean for defense spending? 447 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 10: Well, I think that one of the things that defense hawks, 448 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 10: especially in the Senate are concerned about with this budget 449 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 10: strategy that the Speaker has is the limitations in the 450 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,120 Speaker 10: growth of the budget over time and how that will 451 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 10: ultimately impact the defense spending because defense has been growing 452 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 10: much more than one percent, you know, on an annualized basis, 453 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,160 Speaker 10: and so if everyone agrees to this kind of deal 454 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 10: that's on the table today, there's real concern that we 455 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 10: don't have the kind of growth in the defense line 456 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 10: that we need to be able to address the issues 457 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,199 Speaker 10: in the Ukraine War or be able to ensure the 458 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 10: necessary deterrence to China's interests and ambitions in the South 459 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 10: China Sea. 460 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 4: Well that's it, Genie. 461 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 3: Should another conflict break out, that's going to change the 462 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,360 Speaker 3: conversation around defense funding pretty quickly, isn't it. 463 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 11: It will? And you know that creates a real challenge 464 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 11: for Republicans. But quite frankly, everybody in Congress in terms 465 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 11: of spending, you know, they have made this case about 466 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 11: the deficit and the need to cut spending and the 467 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 11: need to trim it. It's very hard to do if 468 00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 11: you just go after discretionary domestic spending and raises this 469 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,439 Speaker 11: issue of defense. And we've already heard. You know, we 470 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 11: have representatives in Congress looking at China wargames and saying, 471 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,679 Speaker 11: we have a real challenge on our hand. Should China 472 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 11: invade Taiwan in the next year, two years, three years, 473 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,399 Speaker 11: that has an impact on our defense spending. And so 474 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 11: all of these conversations are going to come into place. 475 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 11: And what are the Republicans conjerors doing right now? They're 476 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 11: talking about a bill that has absolutely no chance. It 477 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 11: may start a conversation, but has absolutely no chance of 478 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 11: passing the Senate or being signed. So I support it 479 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 11: starting a conversation, But it's an awful lot of time 480 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 11: to spend when time is limited, as Congress has like 481 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 11: twenty days left before the potential June d Day. 482 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's only so many plates we can keep spinning 483 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 3: in the air at once. Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis, 484 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 3: our signature panel back with more on twenty twenty four. 485 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 3: We've got new numbers on the Republican side here, not 486 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,439 Speaker 3: looking great for Ron DeSantis the latest Wall Street Journal 487 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 3: poll out, and Joe Biden looks like he's going to 488 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 3: announce something next week. 489 00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 4: We'll have that ahead. 490 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on Catch us Live 491 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio 492 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand 493 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. 494 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 3: President buying Biden, I should say, is eyeing a re 495 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 3: election announcement? Easy for me to say as soon as 496 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 3: next week? Biden eyeing, Yeah, a reelector announcement. It's going 497 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 3: to come in the form of a video, according to 498 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 3: Bloomberg News. All this as Ronda Santis turns a fourteen 499 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 3: point advantage into a thirteen point deficit according to the 500 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 3: latest poll from the Wall Street Journal. Let's reassemble the 501 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 3: panel for more on this. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno, 502 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 3: who can get the words out easier than me? Sometimes 503 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 3: as we consider the race here and Joe Biden, of 504 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 3: course hasn't been you know, very cagy about the fact 505 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 3: that he runs again at the Easter Egg Roll said 506 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 3: as much to Al Roker. This is the president and 507 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 3: Roker on NBC. I was just wondering, mister President, will 508 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 3: you be taking part in your Easter egg roles after 509 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,439 Speaker 3: planning on after twenty twenty five at least three or 510 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 3: four more, at least three or four more. 511 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 12: Maybe maybe five, maybe five, maybe six? 512 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 10: Are you? 513 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 3: Are you saying that you would be taking. 514 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 4: Part in the upcoming electional. 515 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 3: Twenty one out of it out your rolland anger. 516 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,640 Speaker 12: Being you know, the guy who pushed it out. 517 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,360 Speaker 13: Come on, help the brother out. 518 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 2: I'm planning on running out. 519 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 3: I'm planning on running out, just not ready to announce 520 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 3: it yet. And I guess that's going to come in 521 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 3: some form on Tuesday. It's going to be a video, 522 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 3: which is I guess what you do? 523 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 9: Now? 524 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are with us. 525 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 4: Genie, is this smart? Now? 526 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,640 Speaker 3: Why not wait a little longer? We still haven't even 527 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 3: seen the Republican field come together yet. 528 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 4: Why the rush? 529 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 11: Yeah, I'm still trying to count. How many years does 530 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 11: he think he will serve if he does run and win. 531 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 11: If addressing the math, yeah, you know, I think he 532 00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,080 Speaker 11: we hear he is a bit superstitious. So if he does, 533 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 11: and I think there's a big question. Marqueerre really you know, 534 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 11: announced via a video on Tuesday. It would be on 535 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 11: the anniversary of his winning announcement last time, so you know, 536 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 11: he may have a rabbit in his pocket. I don't 537 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 11: know something like that, but you know the time, I 538 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 11: think there's been mixed feelings on this. We've heard from 539 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 11: inside his campaign, but I think he and and the 540 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,479 Speaker 11: First Lady have not been shy about publicly saying they're running. 541 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 11: This allows them to do the fundraising they want to do. 542 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 11: And of course, as polls show Donald Trump having an 543 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 11: increasingly sizable lead against Ron DeSantis, I think he does 544 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 11: feel that he has won against Trump in the past 545 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,959 Speaker 11: and he is the guy to do it again, regardless 546 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 11: of concerns about his age, even from inside his own party. 547 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 3: Rick, You've made the point that there's certainly no rush 548 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 3: here for the sitting president to do this. It turns 549 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 3: him into a candidate and we start, you know, I 550 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 3: have to report finances and all the stuff that comes 551 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 3: with making things official. What's behind this is he sending 552 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,640 Speaker 3: a message to other Democrats who are getting itchy. 553 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,480 Speaker 10: I doubt if it's too much the other Democrats getting itchy, 554 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 10: although I would remind the President that three out of 555 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 10: four Americans don't want him to run, and seventy percent 556 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:07,719 Speaker 10: don't want Trump. 557 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 4: So if both of them would. 558 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,239 Speaker 10: Just take a step back and listen to America and 559 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 10: find another person to endorse in this campaign, we might 560 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 10: have something other than a geriatric Olympics in November of 561 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 10: twenty twenty four. But yeah, look, I mean he's he's 562 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 10: not under any stress to win his party's nomination, and 563 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 10: they will rally around him once he announces, So whether 564 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,639 Speaker 10: that's on Tuesday or ten tuesdays from now, that's pretty 565 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 10: much a likelihood that will occur. Why you want to 566 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 10: get into this political cycle when you see your Republican 567 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 10: opponents destroying each other. I mean, I think it's a 568 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 10: really good time to stay out of the narrative. But 569 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 10: his folks want to get going. They probably need to 570 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 10: raise some money, and I guess you know, if they 571 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 10: think they're going to run against Donald Trump, they're probably 572 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 10: anxious to start painting that pick sure, while Republicans are 573 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 10: doing the same thing, and that would be a decidedly 574 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 10: negative picture of Donald Trump to. 575 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 3: The Republican side, Jennie, the latest Wall Street Journal poll 576 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 3: has Rond De Santis trailing Donald Trump by fourteen points thirteen. 577 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,479 Speaker 3: Make that he was leading him by fourteen points. So 578 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 3: it's Trump fifty one percent to thirty eight percent upon 579 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 3: likely Republican primary voters. He's just watching the numbers continue 580 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,479 Speaker 3: to decline here. Does he need to announce before this 581 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 3: gets worse? Or should he reconsider? 582 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 11: See what a good indictment can do for you? May 583 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 11: you pull numbers go up? You look at Real Clear 584 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 11: Politics average. A month ago, Trump was ahead fifteen sixteen points. 585 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 11: He's now twenty nine points ahead of the governor. So 586 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 11: I do think time is running a little bit short 587 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 11: for Ronda Santas. He is being hit on all sides 588 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 11: in his home state of Florida by his own members 589 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 11: of his own legislature down there, members of Congress, former 590 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 11: members of Congress. You know, this has been a bad 591 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 11: few weeks for the governor and he is going to 592 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,239 Speaker 11: really have to figure out a way out of this. 593 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 11: And one thing we keep hearing over and over again. 594 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 11: He has been slow rolling his criticism of Donald Trump. 595 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,080 Speaker 11: If he's going to take him on, he is going 596 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 11: to have to really take him on, whether he announces 597 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 11: or not, and obviously he won't do that until the 598 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 11: legislative session ends. He's got to start hitting Trump back 599 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 11: on these attacks or I think he's going to become 600 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 11: another Jeb Bush in this regard. 601 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable as we consider the governor's war, if we 602 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 3: can call it that, with Disney right now over the 603 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 3: whole Reedy Creek district and the back and forth that's 604 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 3: upsetting some members of the legislature of the General Assembly 605 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 3: in Florida as Ron DeSantis, Ron and Casey DeSantis. The 606 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 3: first lady describes at a sort of quasi campaign stop 607 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 3: in South Carolina a couple of days ago, they had 608 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 3: this sort of prepared routine to talk about their wedding. 609 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 10: One day she comes to me and says, you know, 610 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 10: I was talking to my parents and they were interested 611 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 10: in potentially doing the wedding at. 612 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 3: Yeh, Disney World. 613 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 10: Oh what I remember when this broke in the news, 614 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 10: every thought it was so scandalous, like DeSantis got married 615 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 10: at Disney, Like, yeah, it was great. Back then. 616 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 6: But he had one caveat though, when I because he 617 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 6: was very gracious, he said, you go do what you 618 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 6: want to do. This is your thing. 619 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 8: Go it's wonderful. 620 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 1: And we grew up coming from Ohio going to Disney. 621 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 4: We had a lot of fun before they went woke, obviously. 622 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 3: But so they start handing the mic back and forth, 623 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 3: and apparently Rick he didn't want Mickey at his wedding. 624 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 3: But are you kidding me? This is the guy who's 625 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 3: declared war on Disney. He actually got married at the 626 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 3: park that he's trying to undo. 627 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 10: It's unexplainable. I mean, it's just and they were leaning 628 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 10: in on this, right, I mean, glad to make it 629 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,040 Speaker 10: part of their narrative that we got married there. But 630 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 10: it wasn't woke then, And I must tell you, I 631 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,320 Speaker 10: honestly don't understand it. Maybe they think this is kind 632 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 10: of cute and it's a way to get to know 633 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 10: each other's backgrounds. It's it's a little distracting to the 634 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 10: overall narrative of what he's trying to do with Disney. 635 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 10: But but I would say one thing on polling, don't 636 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 10: believe any national polls this far out of an election 637 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 10: you know that are predicting anybody's success or demise. We 638 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 10: have a long way to go. And when these folks 639 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 10: become candidates and they start spending money in the states 640 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:18,080 Speaker 10: that matter, let's start looking at Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Poles. 641 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 3: Rick Davis, Genie Shanzano. We thank you, as ever our 642 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 3: signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors with insights on the stories 643 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 3: that you care about every day here on Bloomberg sound On. Yeah, 644 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,959 Speaker 3: they got married at Disney World, but she says it 645 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 3: was the navy uniform that got her because he looked 646 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 3: like Tom Cruise. We'll have to introduce them the ward 647 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 3: Carol someday and reevaluate. Hey, it's almost Earth Day. We'll 648 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 3: take a look at that. Coming up next on the 649 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 3: Fastest Show in Politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 650 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 651 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 652 00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 1: tune in apt, Bloomberg dot Com, and a Bloomberg Business app. 653 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 654 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:09,480 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 655 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 3: Well Earth Day tomorrow, I've got plans. Well, the day 656 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 3: itself and the overall environmental movement are so closely associated 657 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,320 Speaker 3: now with progressive politics Democrats. Did you know it was 658 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 3: a Republican who codified April twenty second as Earth Day. 659 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 14: Welcome to the White House on this special occasion. On 660 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 14: April twenty second, nineteen ninety, America will celebrate Earth Day. 661 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:33,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. 662 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 3: President George H. W. Bush nineteen ninety signed a proclamation 663 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 3: that day at the White House to make this an 664 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 3: annual event and listen to how different the conversation, the 665 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 3: approach the debate was. 666 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 14: Then citizens will be asked to make a personal and 667 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 14: collective commitment to the projection of the environment, to think 668 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 14: globally and act locally. And April twenty second also marks 669 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 14: the twentieth anniversary of the first Earth Day, giving each 670 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,560 Speaker 14: and every one of us a chance to reflect on 671 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 14: the progress made over the past twenty years and set 672 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,920 Speaker 14: the environmental agenda for the next decade. We've just started 673 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,560 Speaker 14: a new year, and twenty years ago this week, on 674 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 14: another new year, President Nixon signed landmark environmental legislation, the 675 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:28,799 Speaker 14: National Environmental Policy Act, into Law. The historic environmental laws 676 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 14: of the seventies followed this step Clean Air Act, Clean 677 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 14: Water Act, the laws regulating pesticides and toxic substances and 678 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 14: hazardous waste. 679 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 3: That was the twentieth anniversary indeed of the First Earth 680 00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 3: Day April twenty second, nineteen seventy, as covered then by 681 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,320 Speaker 3: Walter Cronkite on CBS News. 682 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 15: Good Evening, A unique day in American history is ending 683 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,520 Speaker 15: a day set aside for a nationwide outpouring of mankind 684 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 15: seeking its own birthday. The gravity of the message of 685 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,839 Speaker 15: birthday still came through act or. 686 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:13,719 Speaker 3: Die, Act or Die, said Walter Cronkite, codified by George H. W. 687 00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:14,280 Speaker 4: Bush. 688 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,479 Speaker 3: Things have changed a lot, by the way. The number 689 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 3: one song on the First Earth Day nineteen seventy Jackson five. 690 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,359 Speaker 3: Just to bring it back here on the fastest show 691 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,080 Speaker 3: on politics, Kayley Lines is up next on this Earth 692 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,880 Speaker 3: Day Eve, I'm Joe Matthew. Our two sound on starts 693 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 3: right now. 694 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,799 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 695 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 696 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,800 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 697 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 698 00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 3: And with no blue check to show for it either, 699 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,120 Speaker 3: we're just regular people. 700 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 1: Now. 701 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,520 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew with Kayley Lions, who's actually dealt with 702 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,399 Speaker 3: this in the past. You you did lose the check, right, 703 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 3: My check is gone gone. They all kind of went 704 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 3: away right in the middle of the day yesterday. It's 705 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 3: been really funny reading people on Twitter. Everyone has to 706 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,000 Speaker 3: post about the fact they lost the check. Everyone lost 707 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 3: their check to say, well, I woke up this morning 708 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,640 Speaker 3: and I'm like, and then you get the you know 709 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 3: whatever video of somebody I just couldn't care less. 710 00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 4: I don't know. The fact of the matter is we're 711 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:21,840 Speaker 4: not paying for checks. 712 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, and there are great questions about what happens to 713 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:29,720 Speaker 3: you know, actual corporations, government agencies that could really suffer, 714 00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:34,399 Speaker 3: never mind media personalities from impostors on the platform, which 715 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:35,480 Speaker 3: was already a problem. 716 00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 16: Kaylie, Yeah, I mean it's already a problem I've dealt 717 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 16: with on other platforms. My Instagram has had like eight 718 00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 16: impostors in the last couple couple of months. Though I 719 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 16: don't have a blue check on Instagram, which I think 720 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 16: is the problem. But the thing is, I had a 721 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 16: lot of people ask me in the last twenty four hours, Well, 722 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,400 Speaker 16: why don't you just pay for it? Because it doesn't 723 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 16: actually make a difference anymore. Right, If I have to 724 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 16: pay for it, then the verification is not originally as 725 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 16: an intended because anyone could pay to pretend to be 726 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 16: me in. 727 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,520 Speaker 3: Theory, you know, it's just or the president or the Pope. 728 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,399 Speaker 3: They lost their checks too. Is it true that Joe 729 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:11,879 Speaker 3: Wisenthal never had a check? 730 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,720 Speaker 16: Yeah, he was one of the rare few that didn't 731 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,160 Speaker 16: need a check for people to know it was really Joe. 732 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 3: But he has like five million followed Joe, did you 733 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 3: tell them not to give you a check? 734 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 17: I'm too punk rock for I was always too cool 735 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 17: for that check. 736 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:26,680 Speaker 5: I don't you know. 737 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 17: It's funny, like I was on Twitter forever, the first 738 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 17: celebrity I think that I ever saw getting a check 739 00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,880 Speaker 17: mark with Shack because he was like early on and 740 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,800 Speaker 17: I was like, this is the real Shack on Twitter, 741 00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:38,040 Speaker 17: and then you got a check I was like, oh 742 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:39,880 Speaker 17: my god, this is the real And so in my 743 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,439 Speaker 17: mind I always associated it's like, unless you're a Shack 744 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:48,040 Speaker 17: level of celebrity, what are you even doing? So I'm like, well, 745 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:49,839 Speaker 17: I'll never be as famous as Shack, so I don't 746 00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 17: want to be. 747 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,600 Speaker 3: Would that suggests that they were handing him out, you know, 748 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,160 Speaker 3: like candy there were too many checks. 749 00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 17: But no, no, no, but like that actually, like is 750 00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,600 Speaker 17: the thing which is and I think this is missed 751 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:04,319 Speaker 17: and is that they're genuinely useful for the consumers of 752 00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,000 Speaker 17: tweets as opposed to the posters of tweets. And Kaylee, 753 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 17: well you said it's like exactly right, like why pay 754 00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 17: and it's like it doesn't really mean anything. But the 755 00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,600 Speaker 17: real advantage of even having a verification system for a 756 00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:17,880 Speaker 17: lot of journalists was like, you know, a lot of 757 00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,600 Speaker 17: news has been broken on Twitter, people said things, you 758 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 17: have really incredible people who are like posted their first 759 00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,279 Speaker 17: thought when something happens is to post something to Twitter, right, 760 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,600 Speaker 17: Like that's kind of a remarkable thing for any site 761 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:33,360 Speaker 17: to have. And then journalists of course made a million 762 00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,480 Speaker 17: stories over the last ten years like so and so 763 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,200 Speaker 17: said this, and now if you don't really know that 764 00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:43,040 Speaker 17: it's the person, then like from a consumption standpoint, it's 765 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,640 Speaker 17: kind of because it sort of degrades the ability to 766 00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,759 Speaker 17: use Twitter as a source of news, which maybe that's 767 00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,279 Speaker 17: even a good thing, but I doubt that's something that's 768 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,439 Speaker 17: in the long term business interests. 769 00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:52,720 Speaker 4: Of the company. 770 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,160 Speaker 16: Well, but on the long term business interests of the company. 771 00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,920 Speaker 16: Is this like the start of the death of Twitter, 772 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 16: which I feel like might be a peace for you 773 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:05,359 Speaker 16: the stall Yeah, followers, I'm going to be like. 774 00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,640 Speaker 17: You know that meme of the guy standing in the corner. 775 00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 17: It's like they don't know, blah blah blah, like they 776 00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,160 Speaker 17: don't know I used to be popular on Twitter years ago. 777 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 17: That's gonna be me like in a year. But I 778 00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,680 Speaker 17: do think like, yeah, I mean, look, I don't know, 779 00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,480 Speaker 17: jeth it's maybe a dramatic whatever, I'm not going anywhere. 780 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:25,120 Speaker 17: It's still like the first slow wilting, Yes, slow wilting. 781 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:29,839 Speaker 17: It's like becomes a slowly worse experience. And I do 782 00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,759 Speaker 17: think that, like it's simpoint, like it's not you know, 783 00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,120 Speaker 17: like I just the way I just see it is 784 00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 17: like any site ever would kill to have Lebron James 785 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,360 Speaker 17: Bill Ackman, you know, the president of the presidents of 786 00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,319 Speaker 17: several countries have them on their site and post it 787 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,920 Speaker 17: right like anyone would like kill for that. And then 788 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,600 Speaker 17: to think that your business is going to be I'm 789 00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,840 Speaker 17: going to charge you know, I'm going to charge the 790 00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,560 Speaker 17: Pope eight dollars a month. It's like give the Pope 791 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:03,360 Speaker 17: literally making blessings, you know, on the site. And it 792 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,040 Speaker 17: was like, I'm going it's incredible. Could you imagine how 793 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,880 Speaker 17: many other social networks would be desperate for something like that? 794 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,000 Speaker 17: And then you and then you're like, oh, I think 795 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:13,840 Speaker 17: our business model is going to be let's charge the 796 00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 17: Pope eight dollars. Let's charge Bill Ackman eight dollars. It's 797 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,560 Speaker 17: just I mean, maybe, look, Elon is one of the 798 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 17: richest people in the world. I'm not, but I'm skeptical. 799 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,480 Speaker 17: But that's like a great way to use the factory 800 00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:28,400 Speaker 17: of all these incredible people on to say. 801 00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,960 Speaker 3: Well, if the story lately is, you know, the loss 802 00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 3: of advertising, which apparently is very real at Twitter, does 803 00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:36,520 Speaker 3: this help to bring them back? 804 00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:37,560 Speaker 13: No? 805 00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,239 Speaker 17: And there's the other thing, right, Like, the other thing 806 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,480 Speaker 17: is that one of the weird things about Twitter is 807 00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:48,600 Speaker 17: many people are pushed very specific, detailed things about what 808 00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,759 Speaker 17: they're into there, right, like it's not even like you 809 00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,520 Speaker 17: and yet like I've never in fifteen years of being 810 00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 17: on the site because I joined this in March two 811 00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,880 Speaker 17: thousand and eight, and which I remember because it was 812 00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:04,319 Speaker 17: like basically when bearster and collapsed. Uh, you know, like 813 00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,239 Speaker 17: I've posed so much personal information of some sort on 814 00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,480 Speaker 17: the site, and yet I really don't think I've ever 815 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,200 Speaker 17: seen a well targeted ad for me. But it's only 816 00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 17: gonna get worse because if it's just like, you know, 817 00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:19,600 Speaker 17: random accounts like you know, sir Doge of Coin and 818 00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,240 Speaker 17: Wall Street Silver and all these like random meme accounts 819 00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,560 Speaker 17: that Elon himself enjoys, which is his right, I don't 820 00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,200 Speaker 17: know if like any like brand advertisers like really want 821 00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,320 Speaker 17: to be there the way they want to be on say, 822 00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:31,560 Speaker 17: you know, Instagram. 823 00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:33,880 Speaker 16: Yeah, it's a good point. Now I'm just kind of 824 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,440 Speaker 16: scrolling through your Twitter feed and one thing that you 825 00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,040 Speaker 16: do tweet about quite often is. 826 00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,600 Speaker 17: Odd Lots, right podcast. 827 00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,480 Speaker 16: Yes, so I'm going to use this to a nice 828 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,520 Speaker 16: seg here, give it here. Thank oh, thank you very much. 829 00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,520 Speaker 16: Of course, we are twenty four hours from everybody having 830 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,920 Speaker 16: lost their blue check marks. We are also twenty four 831 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,080 Speaker 16: hours from four to twenty. Yes, so you had a 832 00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:59,279 Speaker 16: three part episode of odd Lots, which you dubbed Potlots. 833 00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:01,840 Speaker 17: Yeah, it's been into works for while. It was really 834 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,360 Speaker 17: my co host Tracy is like kind of her vision 835 00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:09,320 Speaker 17: and it's actually no, and it was not a actually 836 00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 17: I think originally we wanted to get it out like 837 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,319 Speaker 17: last October, and putting together this series ended up being 838 00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,560 Speaker 17: way more daunting than we could have ever imagined. So 839 00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,480 Speaker 17: it's like, Okay, we'll put it out on April twentieth. 840 00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:21,600 Speaker 17: But yes, so you know, as you know, like the 841 00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:23,799 Speaker 17: New York or some people may know, New York is 842 00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:28,280 Speaker 17: like slowly rolling out the adult use Recreational Weeks coverage 843 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:32,960 Speaker 17: and it's incredibly complicated. It's just an incredibly it's so 844 00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,080 Speaker 17: much easier said than done to take what was previously 845 00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,200 Speaker 17: an illicit market and make it a sort of consumer market, 846 00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,520 Speaker 17: and we explored it from all the angles, and we 847 00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,960 Speaker 17: talked to licensed dealers, we talked to unlicensed dealers, we 848 00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,239 Speaker 17: talked to regulators, we talked to vcs, we talked to 849 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,360 Speaker 17: retail operators, et cetera about how it's going. And my 850 00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,960 Speaker 17: big takeaway is that, again I had a feeling it 851 00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,560 Speaker 17: was a kind of a complicated mess to do this, 852 00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,680 Speaker 17: and my takeaway is like, it's ten times more complicated 853 00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,600 Speaker 17: than even I realized. But it's it's a very I 854 00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:06,040 Speaker 17: learned a lot from the reporting process of like of 855 00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,640 Speaker 17: interviewing people over the course of these three episodes. 856 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,320 Speaker 3: You know, one of the things that I used to 857 00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,760 Speaker 3: live in Massachusetts and was there when when they began 858 00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,120 Speaker 3: their experiment, and one of the biggest concerns was how 859 00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,880 Speaker 3: do you squash the black market when prices are so high. 860 00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:24,160 Speaker 3: If people don't care about, you know, regulated products, they're 861 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:25,920 Speaker 3: going to go find the cheapest price they can. And 862 00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,959 Speaker 3: this is something that most states, including Colorado, haven't seen 863 00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:29,680 Speaker 3: to figure out yet. 864 00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,359 Speaker 17: Yoe, No, they haven't. And there's many perverse aspects of it, 865 00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,719 Speaker 17: one of which is that, you know, because of it's 866 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,320 Speaker 17: illegal at the federal level, there's no way to legally 867 00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:44,120 Speaker 17: cross state lines with it. So no real license dispensary 868 00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:47,960 Speaker 17: in New York can sell product grown or created in California. 869 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,040 Speaker 17: But the unlice of this place is can they can 870 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,400 Speaker 17: easily You rent a private plate, rented G four, you 871 00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:54,560 Speaker 17: pack a few boxes in it, no one there's no 872 00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,759 Speaker 17: customs going across borders, so no one's gonna know what. 873 00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,239 Speaker 17: You're not likely to get busted, and so like not 874 00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:06,600 Speaker 17: only ours the unlicensed place, they places less taxed, less 875 00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:10,480 Speaker 17: regulated et cetera. They might have much better or at 876 00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,680 Speaker 17: least much more abundant product because they're not limited to 877 00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,480 Speaker 17: purchasing from something created in state. So it's really tricky, 878 00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,920 Speaker 17: and it's particularly tricky due to the tech that it's 879 00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:23,840 Speaker 17: still the fact that it's still a Schedule one illegal 880 00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,480 Speaker 17: drug at the national level. 881 00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,439 Speaker 4: Like how he says rent a G four, Like that's 882 00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:28,000 Speaker 4: just something. 883 00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:32,360 Speaker 17: No, there's something I heard. I've never done it myself, 884 00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:33,920 Speaker 17: but I heard so Like I was like, well, how 885 00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,799 Speaker 17: do they get it across someone and someone? I don't 886 00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:37,040 Speaker 17: think it was in the episode, Like. 887 00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,200 Speaker 3: How about the matter of cash though, Joe, we only 888 00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,320 Speaker 3: have a minute. I'll warn you this safe banking acts. 889 00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,319 Speaker 3: We've covered a lot in Washington. It's passed the house 890 00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,040 Speaker 3: over fifteen times, but is apparently never going to see 891 00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:47,560 Speaker 3: the light of day. 892 00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:47,840 Speaker 2: I know. 893 00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:51,279 Speaker 17: It's another really frustrating aspect for them, and so even 894 00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,240 Speaker 17: the licensed operators have and that's what in the final 895 00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:57,080 Speaker 17: episode we talked to someone who works at one of 896 00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:01,360 Speaker 17: the existing licensed operators in Manhattan and just issues of 897 00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:07,960 Speaker 17: like finding payroll services, payment services. It's really tricky, all right. 898 00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,000 Speaker 16: Well, make sure to turn tune into that three part 899 00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:12,960 Speaker 16: special Odd Lots episode. 900 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,720 Speaker 4: You can smell it on the subway. 901 00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,480 Speaker 16: Now, oh New York, Yeah, you can smell. 902 00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,800 Speaker 3: I mean like I've walked around New York and I 903 00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:21,400 Speaker 3: mean you can't have what but on the subway? 904 00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,680 Speaker 4: How's it getting in the subway? 905 00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:27,359 Speaker 3: Well, people are smoking on the subway, there is some Unfortunately. 906 00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:29,200 Speaker 4: He is too punk rock for a blue shit. 907 00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:30,680 Speaker 3: Joe, thank you, and now we all are. 908 00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:31,560 Speaker 17: Thanks for having me. 909 00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:32,719 Speaker 3: Now we all are. 910 00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:33,839 Speaker 4: How about that. 911 00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,680 Speaker 16: Never considered myself punk rock before this, but hey, I'll. 912 00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:37,560 Speaker 4: Take it absolutely. 913 00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,799 Speaker 3: Joe Wisenthal. Of course, the Pride of Bloomberg. 914 00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:41,160 Speaker 4: Here. 915 00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 916 00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,759 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 917 00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:53,160 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 918 00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 919 00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:02,040 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg. Joe. 920 00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:06,200 Speaker 16: With every minute that passes, we get closer to the 921 00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:06,719 Speaker 16: X date. 922 00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:07,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, where is it? 923 00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:08,239 Speaker 4: When is it? 924 00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,200 Speaker 16: That's a good question. But at some point in theory, 925 00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,480 Speaker 16: the Treasury could hit the wall and run out of 926 00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,200 Speaker 16: money to pay the bills of the United States. And 927 00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,000 Speaker 16: based on the Treasuries tax receipts, that date could come 928 00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,960 Speaker 16: a lot sooner than maybe we anticipate anticipated previously. 929 00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:24,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really good point. 930 00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:26,640 Speaker 3: We were talking about maybe we get till July or 931 00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,160 Speaker 3: August extraordinary measures. But you're reporting, and you've had a 932 00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,880 Speaker 3: great piece on this on Balance of Power on Bloomberg 933 00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,360 Speaker 3: TV yesterday. It's looking like it's going to be a 934 00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,840 Speaker 3: lot sooner. It could be the middle of June. Yeah, 935 00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,280 Speaker 3: And we don't even have a meeting set up between 936 00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:42,840 Speaker 3: the Speaker and the President on this. 937 00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:44,760 Speaker 4: There is currently no path. 938 00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,560 Speaker 16: Yeah, it does not seem like we are any closer 939 00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:49,640 Speaker 16: to getting the House Speaker and the President of the 940 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,000 Speaker 16: United States to sit down at the negotiating table on this. 941 00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,080 Speaker 16: Of course, Speaker McCarthy has put out a bill he 942 00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,759 Speaker 16: wants to raise the debt ceiling by one and a 943 00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,200 Speaker 16: half trillion dollars, but he still wants to cut spending. 944 00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,040 Speaker 16: The White House still kind of saying no, thank you 945 00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,640 Speaker 16: to that. So who is right? Bloomberg's David Weston pose 946 00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,799 Speaker 16: that question to Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary and 947 00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:14,200 Speaker 16: Harvard University president Emeritis, as part of his usual Wall 948 00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:17,280 Speaker 16: Street Week segment. Take a listen to what mister Summers said. 949 00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:17,920 Speaker 4: We should be. 950 00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:21,440 Speaker 12: Talking about controlling our spending. We should not be talking 951 00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:27,960 Speaker 12: about anything in the context of hostage taking and threats 952 00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:33,640 Speaker 12: that are damaging and counterproductive for everybody. Look, we do 953 00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,880 Speaker 12: need to have a fundamental conversation about the future of 954 00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,960 Speaker 12: government finances in our country. 955 00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,360 Speaker 4: Okay, so no hostage taking. 956 00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:45,319 Speaker 16: Perhaps not. 957 00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,520 Speaker 3: Then again, the Republican leadership would tell you we're not 958 00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,480 Speaker 3: holding anything hostage. We're saving the next generation. So this 959 00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,160 Speaker 3: is kind of a tough one. David Weston is with 960 00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,440 Speaker 3: us right now from New York. David, when Larry Summers 961 00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,520 Speaker 3: weighs in, the markets tend to listen. But we're no 962 00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,399 Speaker 3: closer to a solution here than we were the last 963 00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:05,880 Speaker 3: time we spoke a week ago. When does the market 964 00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:06,600 Speaker 3: start to worry? 965 00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,360 Speaker 13: Well, you're seeing a little bit, Joe already. If you 966 00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,040 Speaker 13: look at the cds's, the one year CDs is for 967 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,839 Speaker 13: US debt, it's at their highest ever run record. Now 968 00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,080 Speaker 13: it's a pretty thin market. I want to be careful here, 969 00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,680 Speaker 13: but in fact it's at a record high. And also 970 00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,239 Speaker 13: there's a kink actually in the T bill market. In 971 00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,680 Speaker 13: the yields where basically people are saying, yeah, I'm happy 972 00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,319 Speaker 13: to lone you some money for the next sixty days 973 00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,560 Speaker 13: US government. After that, I'm not so sure. I'm not 974 00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:29,920 Speaker 13: sure if you're going to pay me back. So you're 975 00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:31,719 Speaker 13: starting to see it show up just a little bit 976 00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:32,440 Speaker 13: around the edges. 977 00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:35,520 Speaker 16: A little bit around the edges, though likely isn't enough 978 00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:39,400 Speaker 16: to get the attention of those here in Washington, David 979 00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,919 Speaker 16: and make them more enticed to perhaps give an inch 980 00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,840 Speaker 16: when it comes to the kind of this stubborn standoff. 981 00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,719 Speaker 16: Do we realistically have to see the markets make up, 982 00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:50,520 Speaker 16: kick up a little bit more of a storm here 983 00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:52,680 Speaker 16: on this before we see real action? Is that the 984 00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,279 Speaker 16: sense you're getting from the conversations you're having with leaders. 985 00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,759 Speaker 13: Well, it certainly was what we saw in twenty eleven, 986 00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:00,560 Speaker 13: isn't it, Kayley. I mean, we saw version of that 987 00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:02,640 Speaker 13: where we walked right up and we had one rating 988 00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,399 Speaker 13: agency take us down a notch. You hope that we're 989 00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,200 Speaker 13: not gonna get there because it costs real money. It 990 00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:09,719 Speaker 13: costs real money in borrowing costs. But I think you 991 00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,880 Speaker 13: heard in what Larry said there the essence of the dilemma. 992 00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,320 Speaker 13: On the one hand, I think everybody, including Kevin McCarthy Republics, 993 00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,320 Speaker 13: agree we should not default on our debt. That's catastrophic. 994 00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,640 Speaker 13: On the other hand, you hear everybody you say, we 995 00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,160 Speaker 13: should do something about the spending. The problem is are 996 00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,200 Speaker 13: they connected or not connected? And it seems like that's 997 00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,560 Speaker 13: the stumbling block right now. And I know that makes 998 00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,000 Speaker 13: sense in Washington where you are. I think maybe across 999 00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:33,279 Speaker 13: a lot of the country they're saying, wait a second, 1000 00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,480 Speaker 13: I do't understand. You all agree you got to increase 1001 00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:38,320 Speaker 13: the debt. You all agree you got to fix spending. 1002 00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:39,480 Speaker 13: Why can't you just do that? 1003 00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,799 Speaker 3: You start to wonder who's gonna blink here, David? And 1004 00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,040 Speaker 3: when the White House comes around, the signals that we 1005 00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:49,480 Speaker 3: have seen would suggest that that happens, that that meeting 1006 00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:53,279 Speaker 3: will happen if House Republicans can pass their budget. And 1007 00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,480 Speaker 3: it remains unclear as we go into the weekend. If 1008 00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:58,560 Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy has two hundred and eighteen votes for this plan, 1009 00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,640 Speaker 3: if he does not, are we still in nowhere land 1010 00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:02,080 Speaker 3: next week? 1011 00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:03,719 Speaker 13: But it gets to the essence of it doesn't a 1012 00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,760 Speaker 13: joe as a practical matter, because one of the major 1013 00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,960 Speaker 13: factors that you didn't really have in twos as eleven 1014 00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:09,960 Speaker 13: is the Speaker of the House that took how many 1015 00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,400 Speaker 13: votes to get his speakership with a very fractured caucus 1016 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:17,400 Speaker 13: and then narrow majority, And no doubt Kevin McCarthy first informers, 1017 00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:19,319 Speaker 13: wants to keep his job, and it's not clear how 1018 00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,200 Speaker 13: he does that. That goes to whether he can actually 1019 00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,680 Speaker 13: get this bill through the House. That's far from clear. 1020 00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,279 Speaker 13: On the other hand, I'm not sure President Biden's going 1021 00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:27,920 Speaker 13: to pay any attention to him if he can't. 1022 00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:28,320 Speaker 4: Get the votes. 1023 00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:31,120 Speaker 16: Yeah, it's such a good point. And David, I know 1024 00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,879 Speaker 16: you had a much longer conversation with Larry Summers about 1025 00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:36,680 Speaker 16: this and ultimately about the US economy and also the 1026 00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:41,839 Speaker 16: US dollar status as the global reserve currency, and Larry 1027 00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,759 Speaker 16: Summers seemed to suggest that if that does happen, which 1028 00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:46,600 Speaker 16: he doesn't necessarily think it will, it will be because 1029 00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:49,279 Speaker 16: the United States is no longer respected and strong in 1030 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,520 Speaker 16: the world. It will be because we've accumulated a set 1031 00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,840 Speaker 16: of untenable debts. So is he essentially saying that something 1032 00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:56,759 Speaker 16: like I don't know, pushing it too close to the 1033 00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,120 Speaker 16: limit and getting downgraded or actually going over that to 1034 00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:01,720 Speaker 16: fall Cliff is what ultimately could mean that the dollar 1035 00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:02,600 Speaker 16: is no longer king. 1036 00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,239 Speaker 13: It may well be, but I think what he would 1037 00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,120 Speaker 13: say is, we got a lot bigger problems than that. 1038 00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,600 Speaker 13: If we actually go over the limit and we default 1039 00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:10,360 Speaker 13: on the debt. 1040 00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:11,960 Speaker 4: That's going to be the least of our problems. We're 1041 00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:13,440 Speaker 4: going to have much bigger problems than that. 1042 00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:15,440 Speaker 13: But we were going over with him an analysis that 1043 00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,240 Speaker 13: you saw this week, Kayley, that in fact, the dollar 1044 00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:20,680 Speaker 13: as a reserve currency lost a fair amount of market share, 1045 00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,600 Speaker 13: if I can put it that way, this last year, 1046 00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:24,560 Speaker 13: in part because of some of the sanctions on Russia. 1047 00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:26,920 Speaker 13: And so we were asking him, are we in danger? 1048 00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:29,600 Speaker 13: And he basically said, no, we're not in that bad danger, 1049 00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:31,440 Speaker 13: but we could get in that much danger if we 1050 00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,000 Speaker 13: don't get our fiscal house in order. He's very concerned 1051 00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:34,399 Speaker 13: about that. 1052 00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,839 Speaker 3: What else are we're looking forward to on Wall Street 1053 00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:39,520 Speaker 3: week tonight at six pm New York Time, David. 1054 00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,080 Speaker 13: Well, we got a great treat and Rick Reader coming 1055 00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,520 Speaker 13: on from Blackrock. We had a good kind discussion with him, 1056 00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:45,640 Speaker 13: and he's the best, Well, he is the best, and 1057 00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,160 Speaker 13: you know, he's very concerned at this point. You know, 1058 00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,440 Speaker 13: he's a fixed income guy al though he's also expanded 1059 00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,640 Speaker 13: into all assets right now, but he says maybe the 1060 00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:56,400 Speaker 13: FEDI is a little too fixated on inflation. Sure you 1061 00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:58,840 Speaker 13: got to pay attention to it, but how much damage 1062 00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:00,359 Speaker 13: are you willing to do the econ I mean, he's 1063 00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:01,719 Speaker 13: got a lot of ways of looking at it, saying, 1064 00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,200 Speaker 13: you know what they should Okay, maybe hiking the twenty 1065 00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,240 Speaker 13: five in May, but then they got a whole pat 1066 00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:08,399 Speaker 13: and he thinks they're going to be cutting not this year, 1067 00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,600 Speaker 13: he doesn't expect that this year, but next year. He 1068 00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,400 Speaker 13: thinks we're looking at maybe as low as three for 1069 00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:14,760 Speaker 13: the flood Fund's right. 1070 00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:17,120 Speaker 16: Well, And of course, so much of that is going 1071 00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:19,240 Speaker 16: to depend on how much of a contraction we really 1072 00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,440 Speaker 16: do see in credit, how much banks pull back on lending. 1073 00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,399 Speaker 16: And I know that was something you discussed at length 1074 00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,280 Speaker 16: with Brian moynihan, the Bank of America's CEO, yesterday. 1075 00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,920 Speaker 13: Exactly, and Brian admitted, look at we are that our 1076 00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:32,520 Speaker 13: standards are going up on credit, we're not loaning as much. 1077 00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,239 Speaker 13: But he said that's exactly what the FED wanted. How 1078 00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:35,840 Speaker 13: are they gonna get co inflation under control? If you 1079 00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:38,360 Speaker 13: don't do that, He's not overly alarmed. He says, the 1080 00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:42,400 Speaker 13: consumer is still very strong. But going back for a minute, 1081 00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:44,200 Speaker 13: that is exactly what Rick Reader is concerned about it. 1082 00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:47,280 Speaker 13: He says that if there's more disruption in the banking system, 1083 00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,080 Speaker 13: that is exactly what's going to force the FED to 1084 00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,560 Speaker 13: come down. But I would say Brian does not see 1085 00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:52,720 Speaker 13: that on the horizon. 1086 00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:55,520 Speaker 16: Yet yet, being the operative word there. 1087 00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:57,919 Speaker 3: Y oh true, these things can change pretty quickly. 1088 00:52:58,000 --> 00:52:58,200 Speaker 1: David. 1089 00:52:58,239 --> 00:52:59,759 Speaker 3: It's always our pleasure to have you. Let's do this 1090 00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:01,960 Speaker 3: again next week, and we'll be watching tonight, of course 1091 00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,680 Speaker 3: and listening. You can always listen. I should tell our 1092 00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:09,120 Speaker 3: radio audience to Wall Street week at six pm Wall 1093 00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:09,800 Speaker 3: Street Time. 1094 00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,040 Speaker 4: As we sit here in Washington. 1095 00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,640 Speaker 3: David Weston with us from New York, Kayley and just 1096 00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:18,160 Speaker 3: question marks all over this story. We just got through 1097 00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,719 Speaker 3: another week without really a sense of where we are and. 1098 00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:21,319 Speaker 4: Where we're going. 1099 00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:25,440 Speaker 16: Yeah, hopefully we'll have a firmer sense of ultimately where 1100 00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:29,479 Speaker 16: we need to get to at the last possible date. 1101 00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:31,839 Speaker 16: That X date should become more clearer once we get 1102 00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,440 Speaker 16: the fuller picture of what the Apple TAP's receipts look like, 1103 00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:36,759 Speaker 16: and maybe that'll kick start, that'll fight something. 1104 00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:38,879 Speaker 3: That'll be an inflection point, just like the vote next 1105 00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:42,120 Speaker 3: Wednesday if that bill gets to the floor, and we'll 1106 00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:45,520 Speaker 3: find out together with coverage from Washington every day here 1107 00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:47,839 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Sound On. If you want to know what's 1108 00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:51,879 Speaker 3: happening inside the Beltway, this is your opportunity here live 1109 00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:55,400 Speaker 3: on the radio or in the podcasts with Kaylee Lines. 1110 00:53:55,440 --> 00:54:01,200 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening 1111 00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,520 Speaker 3: to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 1112 00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,360 Speaker 3: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 1113 00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,120 Speaker 3: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 1114 00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:12,520 Speaker 3: weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at 1115 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,120 Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.