WEBVTT - Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on Tokenization and Prediction Markets for Everything

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Jill Wisenthal, and I'm Tracy all the way Tracy.

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<v Speaker 2>I think I've mentioned it before, but an idea that

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<v Speaker 2>I've had for podcasts in general, maybe this one one day,

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<v Speaker 2>other podcasts, I want to do everything in two parts.

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<v Speaker 2>So yes, yeah, interview the guests because sometimes it's like

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<v Speaker 2>all of the questions I want to ask are only

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<v Speaker 2>after I've talked to a guest for an hour and

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<v Speaker 2>have some better understanding of the situation. So I want

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<v Speaker 2>to interview the guests, think about it for a few days,

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<v Speaker 2>let the listeners listen to it and have their questions,

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<v Speaker 2>and then it's like, Okay, you know, we've thought about

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<v Speaker 2>it for a few days. Come back. Also, our listeners

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<v Speaker 2>want to know about this and then have the second

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<v Speaker 2>part of the conversation, just like a follow up. I

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<v Speaker 2>want to form a lot. I want to do that one.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's a good idea. It's also just a

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<v Speaker 3>flywheel of content. It will be never ending that way.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think that's a good job.

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<v Speaker 3>Security.

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<v Speaker 2>Anyway, we did an episode last year that was great,

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<v Speaker 2>but it also provoked a lot of questions. I'd just

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<v Speaker 2>like jump right into it. So we did an episode

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<v Speaker 2>last year with Lautenant, the co founder and CEO of Robinhood,

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<v Speaker 2>and that was about the company's tokenization efforts, so basically

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<v Speaker 2>his ability to create instruments that would allow users to

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<v Speaker 2>actually trade shares not shares, I guess, but you know,

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<v Speaker 2>quasi equity or equity linked instruments in private companies like

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<v Speaker 2>an open AI or something like that. And then after

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<v Speaker 2>that came out a bunch of people, including the companies,

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of reaction either like what the heck we did?

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<v Speaker 2>Since when did these private companies they are like, since

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<v Speaker 2>when the heck did like we authorize our equity to

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<v Speaker 2>be traded like this or all kinds of stuff. I

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<v Speaker 2>didn't even like really think about that aspect of the time.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's like I wanted to know more.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's a lot to talk about here. So

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it does feel like the I guess the

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<v Speaker 3>trajectory history right now is marching towards tokenizing everything and

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<v Speaker 3>just allowing markets in everything and every format, from like

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<v Speaker 3>kind of quasi derivatives to one off event bets like

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<v Speaker 3>that just feels like the trend at the moment, but

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<v Speaker 3>at the same time, there are so many interesting questions

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<v Speaker 3>that this actually raises, not least of which is the

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<v Speaker 3>safety aspect of how much of our lives are just

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<v Speaker 3>going to be watching lines going up or down and

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<v Speaker 3>making bets on.

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<v Speaker 2>Them, absolutely right, you know, like with the prediction markets.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know something I've been thinking about with prediction

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<v Speaker 2>markets is you can replicate equity through that, right, because

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<v Speaker 2>you could just have like prediction markets on will Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>go up one percent today, we'll go up two percent.

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<v Speaker 2>You could just go up or down. Yeah, you can

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<v Speaker 2>recreate all of these instruments in all these different formats.

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<v Speaker 2>So it definitely feels like a jump ball, especially with

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<v Speaker 2>a very sort of liberal regulatory environment. Anyway, very excited

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<v Speaker 2>to say we're going to get a chance to do

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<v Speaker 2>the second half of that conversation that came out last July.

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<v Speaker 2>So we are rejoined once again by ten of, co

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<v Speaker 2>founder and CEO of Robin Hoods of Lot. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 2>coming back on a lot.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm happy to be here again. And I think from

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<v Speaker 4>the guest perspective, i'd also like this if there was

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<v Speaker 4>an opportunity to replace any of my answers from part

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<v Speaker 4>one with better.

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<v Speaker 2>Necessary now that I know the question to replace them,

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<v Speaker 2>that's going to the first one is going to live

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<v Speaker 2>out forever, but.

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<v Speaker 4>A very interviewer friendly formats that we've created. That's right,

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<v Speaker 4>of course we did.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's talk about that, because like we did that

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<v Speaker 2>episode where you talk about these tokenization efforts, and I was,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I didn't even think, like, the companies

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<v Speaker 2>whose private shares are being tokenized, are they cool with this?

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<v Speaker 2>But apparently they weren't. What's going on with that? What

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<v Speaker 2>happened with that? Because it does seem weird to be

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<v Speaker 2>able to offer instruments of privately traded companies when the

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<v Speaker 2>companies themselves like, just to be clear, this is not us.

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<v Speaker 4>I think there was various degrees of disavowal. I think

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of these companies are very concerned about their reputations,

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<v Speaker 4>and if they don't understand something, they don't have time

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<v Speaker 4>to dig into it. They'll just say we had nothing

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<v Speaker 4>to do with this, which I think is fair. I

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<v Speaker 4>think you talk to these AI companies and they all

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<v Speaker 4>kind of say the same thing, which is, yeah, we'd

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<v Speaker 4>love our company to allow retail investors exposure right, and

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<v Speaker 4>we think that would be better for the world. Everyone

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<v Speaker 4>generally agrees with us, but when you get down to

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<v Speaker 4>the details of what that entails, and it is a

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<v Speaker 4>new thing, not a lot of companies are doing it.

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<v Speaker 4>Nobody really wants to be the first, and no one

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<v Speaker 4>wants to mess with the status quo, and from their perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>they want to focus on running their business, increasing their revenues,

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<v Speaker 4>and this is sort of ancillary, but for us, it

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<v Speaker 4>is our business. Our business is all about helping the

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<v Speaker 4>retail investor making sure they have all the advantages that

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<v Speaker 4>institutions have, and so it's very, very important. We've continued

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<v Speaker 4>on this journey. Obviously, the open AI and SpaceX stock

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<v Speaker 4>token giveaways in Europe were kind of step one, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's evolved like we're continuing to pursue that over but

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<v Speaker 4>of course we want to find a US solution for

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<v Speaker 4>US customers as well. And actually this week we are

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<v Speaker 4>taking public Robinhood Ventures Fund one RVII on the NICY,

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<v Speaker 4>which is a closed end fund, so you can think

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<v Speaker 4>of it as a venture capital firm that we're taking public.

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<v Speaker 4>We raise capital from retail investors in some institutional as well,

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<v Speaker 4>and we use that capital to invest in private companies,

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<v Speaker 4>which we've already invested in quite a few.

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<v Speaker 3>These are things that traditionally would be limited to a

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<v Speaker 3>credit investors.

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<v Speaker 4>But it's not a credited vehicle and also no carry.

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<v Speaker 4>So actually, one of the things we've been hearing is

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<v Speaker 4>from a perspective of an LP that invests in venture

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<v Speaker 4>capital firms and has to give up that performance fee

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<v Speaker 4>to the manager. This is a disruptive vehicle. And for

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<v Speaker 4>all of the Robinhood Ventures portfolio companies, and these are

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<v Speaker 4>companies like Data Breaks or a Revolute, I think I

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<v Speaker 4>have to go through all of them because I don't

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<v Speaker 4>want to pick out a particular Boom Hypersonic.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, we had their CEE you on.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, Mercore and Stripe which we've signed and not closed,

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<v Speaker 4>and I'm probably forgetting some, but yeah, these are all

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<v Speaker 4>companies that are excited to have Robinhood and retail be

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<v Speaker 4>a part of the picture. And they filmed videos explaining

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<v Speaker 4>why they chose to be part of this. So there

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<v Speaker 4>are people that want to be the first And of

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<v Speaker 4>course this is a different product than tokenization of an

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<v Speaker 4>individual name, and so it's like a little bit more

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<v Speaker 4>palatable to most of these companies, But I think it

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<v Speaker 4>ends up in the same place. I think there's going

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<v Speaker 4>to be a gradual acclimatization to retail access to these companies,

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<v Speaker 4>and you know, Robinhood is going to be leading the

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<v Speaker 4>way across all aspects of this journey. But you know,

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<v Speaker 4>our approach to it has evolved a little bit. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>now we're at the point where we're actually surprised how

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<v Speaker 4>many companies are interested in it and are engaging and

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<v Speaker 4>view it as a differentiator. So I think, at least

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<v Speaker 4>for a bit, we're going to be less aggressive than

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<v Speaker 4>we've been in the past and just get into these

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<v Speaker 4>companies and make sure they want to be part of

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<v Speaker 4>what we're doing willingly and openly.

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<v Speaker 3>I definitely have a lot of questions on the venture

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<v Speaker 3>fund in particular, and you promised to answer all of

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<v Speaker 3>our geekiest questions about like the technical structure of how

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<v Speaker 3>it works. But before we go any further, I have

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<v Speaker 3>one conceptual question, which is, when you think about the

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<v Speaker 3>difference between I guess investing, trading, and gambling, how would

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<v Speaker 3>you differentiate those three activities, Because I think a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of the tension that arises from something like tokenizing stocks.

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<v Speaker 3>Is this idea that like, well, you know, when you

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<v Speaker 3>buy a stock, you're buying equity. The clues in the name, right,

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<v Speaker 3>You're buying equity in the company that's supposed to come

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<v Speaker 3>with certain rights. It's supposed to lead to a virtuous

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<v Speaker 3>circle of you know, the investors putting capital in the

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<v Speaker 3>company and the company talking back to its investors. And

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<v Speaker 3>so I think if we just step back for a

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<v Speaker 3>second and talk about how you see the differences between

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<v Speaker 3>those three activities, that would be really helpful.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. I think that the difference between investing and trading

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<v Speaker 4>is really one of velocity. I think the mindset of someone.

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<v Speaker 4>And by the way, it's not always different people. It

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<v Speaker 4>could also be different activities within one person. So in fact,

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<v Speaker 4>we have a lot of customers who have multiple accounts

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<v Speaker 4>that they have for different purposes. So investing, to me

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<v Speaker 4>is the mental model is I'm buying something and I

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<v Speaker 4>never intend to sell it, right, So it's sort of

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<v Speaker 4>like accumulating assets and you intend to have them only grow,

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<v Speaker 4>and of course maybe you'll sell it if you actually

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<v Speaker 4>need the money, but the intent is always I'm holding

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<v Speaker 4>onto this and I'm building like a monotonically increasing portfolio

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<v Speaker 4>trading is I'm going to move in and out because

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<v Speaker 4>I see an opportunity, and that opportunity might not exist

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<v Speaker 4>in one day or three months. But there's like a

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<v Speaker 4>very particular thesis that I have that's time bound and systematic.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think gambling is like mostly emotional driven, Like

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<v Speaker 4>maybe I really like this team, right and they're my

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<v Speaker 4>local team, so I'll just you know, put some for

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<v Speaker 4>entertainment purpose behind it.

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<v Speaker 2>On tokenization specifically, just to go back to this question,

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<v Speaker 2>you mentioned that you're through the regulatory environment or you're

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<v Speaker 2>able to move a little bit more aggressively in Europe

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<v Speaker 2>in the US. But setting aside Europe or US, if

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<v Speaker 2>someone buys something that on the robin Hood platform is

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<v Speaker 2>called an open Aye token, Yeah, what are they getting?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you have equity that has been like backing it?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it a sort of swap where the only thing

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<v Speaker 2>backing it is your promise to like redeem the token

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<v Speaker 2>at some price, Like what is the token?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah? So all of the tokens that we have offered

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<v Speaker 4>in Europe, including the SpaceX and open Ai giveaway, so

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<v Speaker 4>those haven't been unlocked for trading. It's basically just we

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<v Speaker 4>gave our customers a gift that they hold in their accounts,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's because or actually private markets even in Europe

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<v Speaker 4>for tokenization or sort of like working through Since we're

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<v Speaker 4>the first to do this at least that I'm aware of,

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<v Speaker 4>we're working with the regulators to make sure that when

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<v Speaker 4>we unlock those for trading, the product is safe and

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<v Speaker 4>is sort of like answers all the questions and meets

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<v Speaker 4>all of the requirements for making sure customers are clear

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<v Speaker 4>on how it works. So the intent is for that

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<v Speaker 4>to happen later this year. So we're working on it.

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<v Speaker 4>But as of now, private stock tokens aren't tradable, they're

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<v Speaker 4>just gifts, and all stock tokens are backed by underlying

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<v Speaker 4>equity or like equity equivalent position in for example, open

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<v Speaker 4>ai doesn't have traditional equity because.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, but there is just to be clear, someone acquired

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<v Speaker 2>some equity at some point in a VC round or

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<v Speaker 2>whatever it is, and when someone buys an open ai token,

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<v Speaker 2>that link exists to an actual asset that someone has.

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<v Speaker 4>With the caveat that nobody's buying the open ai token

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<v Speaker 4>through robinhood. Currently it's just been gifted.

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<v Speaker 2>So someone holds those they've been gifted, but those are the.

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<v Speaker 3>Token holder doesn't have the equity. It's in the like

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<v Speaker 3>special purpose vehicle, I assume.

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<v Speaker 4>So yeah, technically, the way this works is it's kind

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<v Speaker 4>of similar to a stable coin. So you have your

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<v Speaker 4>bag of traditional assets that are governed by traditional rules

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<v Speaker 4>and legal covenants and whatnot here, and then you mint

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<v Speaker 4>and burn tokens against that. But yeah, as of now

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<v Speaker 4>in Europe, it's a derivative product, and that's also subject

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<v Speaker 4>to change. You can think of this as kind of

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<v Speaker 4>the paperwork around the technology. The technology is the same,

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<v Speaker 4>but we have been hearing from customers that they're a

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<v Speaker 4>little bit concerned, you know, with traditional stocks. In the

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<v Speaker 4>event of bankruptcy of Robinhood or something, it's very clear

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<v Speaker 4>what happens. Yeah, and so in V one, I think

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of those questions were ambiguous. But since then

0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:11.920
<v Speaker 4>we've continued working and we're going to have a V

0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:15.760
<v Speaker 4>two and eventually a phase three of this offering where

0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:18.720
<v Speaker 4>we believe we'll have a path to actually addressing all

0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.040
<v Speaker 4>those concerns. So now you're at the point where if

0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.920
<v Speaker 4>you buy something that's tokenized, maybe it's a little clunky,

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.560
<v Speaker 4>and it is slightly worse as a product than if

0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:32.520
<v Speaker 4>you have the traditional equity right, if you have access

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:34.880
<v Speaker 4>to that, some people don't have access to it, so

0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:38.439
<v Speaker 4>it's actually much better for them. But I think you're

0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:40.720
<v Speaker 4>going to get to the point within the next year

0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:44.600
<v Speaker 4>where it's superior in all practical ways, and I think

0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:47.280
<v Speaker 4>that's where things really start to get interesting.

0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 3>And just on the ventures fund, I know you said

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.840
<v Speaker 3>it was a closed end fund, but is that like

0:12:52.120 --> 0:13:10.800
<v Speaker 3>a forty act thing or a act? Okay, Yeah, I

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 3>find financial engineering interesting and it certainly gives us a

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.240
<v Speaker 3>lot to talk about. But on the other hand, it

0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 3>seems like so much work. Would it not just be

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 3>simpler to try to lobby for the accredited investor rules

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.920
<v Speaker 3>to actually be changed, Like, how are you making the

0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:29.040
<v Speaker 3>decisions too? We're going to create all these new products,

0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 3>which I assume are a lot of work for you guys,

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.480
<v Speaker 3>take a lot of discussion with the regulators versus just

0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.599
<v Speaker 3>lobbying for these old rules to actually get overhauled.

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think we're doing that as well. I think

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 4>the accredited investor rule needs to go. Frankly, it doesn't

0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.600
<v Speaker 4>make any sense, But I don't think that answers all

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.960
<v Speaker 4>of the problems that people have with private market investing.

0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:55.000
<v Speaker 4>The other problem is just liquidity, Like I don't even myself,

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:57.560
<v Speaker 4>right who has access to these things. I don't want

0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.880
<v Speaker 4>to have my capital locked up for ten years possibly

0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:04.400
<v Speaker 4>more for these companies to go public, and some of

0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.160
<v Speaker 4>them might never go public, right, So there's a liquidity,

0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:11.560
<v Speaker 4>there's also just access and I mean, Robinhood. Part of

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 4>what we're doing here is we're out there hustling getting

0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 4>into these deals because I'm in Silicon Valley, our team

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.480
<v Speaker 4>is there, unlike most of these financial companies that are

0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 4>here in New York. So we happen to kind of

0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 4>be in the epicenter where the deals are getting done,

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:31.160
<v Speaker 4>where the companies are based. The no carry obviously, and

0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:33.440
<v Speaker 4>the accreditation. You know, if we could solve that through

0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:37.600
<v Speaker 4>other ways, that will become interesting. But Chairman Atkins of

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:41.600
<v Speaker 4>the SEC actually specifically called out close down funds as

0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 4>the preferred vehicle for having access to privates. So you know,

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.120
<v Speaker 4>we're we're doing our part working with the regulators to

0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.080
<v Speaker 4>try to open this up. I think they agree that

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 4>it's a problem, and you know, I don't think that

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 4>it's going to be the end state necessarily. I think

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.600
<v Speaker 4>this thing will evolve, but we want to serve customers

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:03.000
<v Speaker 4>and work with regulators at all stages of it. So

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.600
<v Speaker 4>and you know, you do this once. The fact that

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 4>it's hard is also kind of attractive because it makes

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 4>it so that we're unique, Like we figure it out.

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:17.320
<v Speaker 4>We have qualities that we can bring to bear that

0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:21.040
<v Speaker 4>not all of our competitors can. For example, you really

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:25.400
<v Speaker 4>need to have both sides. You need retail to actually

0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:28.400
<v Speaker 4>be on the platform and to be serving customers who

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 4>are interesting in these products. You also need to get

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 4>the supply, and I think Robinhood is somewhat unique in

0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:37.240
<v Speaker 4>being able to actually do both of these things simultaneously.

0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 4>And then we figure it out once and then we

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 4>turned the crank. So you know, you notice we named

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 4>it our VII Robinhood Fund one. We do anticipate there

0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 4>will be other funds. We already have lots of ideas

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 4>of unique products we can offer, so it's really just

0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 4>the first step.

0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.160
<v Speaker 3>So you mentioned being in Silicon Valley and being able

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 3>to source these deals, and this is the other thing

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.680
<v Speaker 3>I wanted to ask you, because getting into a hot

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 3>price tech company at the moment seems incredibly competitive. And

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:05.520
<v Speaker 3>Joe and I we go out when we talk to

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 3>a lot of venture capital funds and they always give

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 3>us the same pitch, which is, well, we're different. We

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 3>build long term relationships with our investments. How is Robinhood

0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 3>actually competing in that space? And what I guess differentiates

0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:20.280
<v Speaker 3>you from a sort of classic VC.

0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.320
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. I mean a big one is we can say

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 4>that there's no carry on these funds, and what that

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.200
<v Speaker 4>means is it's just the more we believe a more

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 4>investor friendly vehicle. Right, typical venture capital firm will charge

0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.240
<v Speaker 4>the management fee. There's also a carry on top, which

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:40.760
<v Speaker 4>means every dollar past a hurdle rate, twenty percent of

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:43.640
<v Speaker 4>that goes back to the fund manager. So it's more

0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.840
<v Speaker 4>investor friendly product. The other thing is, I think a

0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 4>lot of these companies are interested in retail, and no

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 4>other venture capital firm can say, hey, actually urlp's de

0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.880
<v Speaker 4>facto not technically LPs, but the people investing in your

0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 4>company and who will get the underlying exposure through this

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:07.399
<v Speaker 4>fund are normal people, mom and pop, and I think

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:11.080
<v Speaker 4>that's something that nobody else is offering. So that's a

0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:14.680
<v Speaker 4>unique differentiator, and some people don't like that, to be fair,

0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 4>but other people really really like it and for those people,

0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 4>and I think in the future less people will not

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.400
<v Speaker 4>like it because of the uncertainty, and that'll just make

0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:28.960
<v Speaker 4>it more attractive. So the headwinds are receding headwinds. Right,

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.000
<v Speaker 4>It's never going to be as difficult as it is

0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.320
<v Speaker 4>right now to get companies interested in it, and I

0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 4>think it'll actually get substantially easier. We kind of went

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.680
<v Speaker 4>through this with IPO access actually, so we have the

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 4>largest retail platform for access to IPOs where we function

0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:47.920
<v Speaker 4>as a selling group member. And you know, we first

0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:51.359
<v Speaker 4>rolled this out slightly before our IPO. The intent was

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.359
<v Speaker 4>Robinood's IPO would be a big retail offering and I

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.560
<v Speaker 4>think at the time it was the largest for its size.

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.159
<v Speaker 4>It was a north of twenty percent retail allocation. And

0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.800
<v Speaker 4>the other companies that allowed us access to their IPOs

0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:08.320
<v Speaker 4>that year, I mean they were early adopters. They saw

0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:11.840
<v Speaker 4>the vision. We also just had to like scratch and

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:14.400
<v Speaker 4>claw and bang on a lot of doors and ask

0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:17.800
<v Speaker 4>a lot of favors. Right, there was some skepticism. Then

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:20.840
<v Speaker 4>the IPO market shut in twenty twenty two, and then

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:24.840
<v Speaker 4>when we reopened, an interesting thing happened. Now everyone's coming

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.800
<v Speaker 4>to us and asking us about retail strategy. Pretty much

0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:30.280
<v Speaker 4>all of the ipoing names are coming to us to

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:34.159
<v Speaker 4>talk about retail, and so we saw that shift in

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 4>just a few years. I think this will be even

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 4>faster for privates.

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.960
<v Speaker 2>I want to ask, so, okay, you mentioned the advantages,

0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:44.560
<v Speaker 2>is okay, there's no carry, there's things like that that

0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:48.000
<v Speaker 2>all sounds nice. I first see a potential conflict of

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.359
<v Speaker 2>interest that I'd like you to talk to me about.

0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 2>In a traditional VC fund, it's pretty obvious, like the

0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.000
<v Speaker 2>goal is to make a lot of money, right, You

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:57.320
<v Speaker 2>make investments and you want them to go up. It

0:18:57.400 --> 0:18:59.800
<v Speaker 2>strikes me and especially when hearing the names of the

0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.520
<v Speaker 2>companies in RVII, it's like they're very sexy names, right.

0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:06.040
<v Speaker 2>They're the kind of household names to the extent that

0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:10.000
<v Speaker 2>that exists within private companies and boom and data bricks,

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:13.639
<v Speaker 2>et cetera. It seems to me like the traditional VC fund,

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 2>like you're going to optimize for making the most money

0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 2>the best returns, including names that no one has ever

0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.520
<v Speaker 2>heard of. Why should I not think that Robin Hood's

0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:26.119
<v Speaker 2>portfolio has been optimized for retail awareness, not for the

0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 2>best returns, but for the collection of companies that will

0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 2>spark the most triggers in people's heads to get them

0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:34.439
<v Speaker 2>invests because they've heard of them and they're sexy and

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.760
<v Speaker 2>not necessarily the best options out there in terms of investing.

0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:40.159
<v Speaker 4>Well, I mean, first of all, we are incentive to

0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:44.120
<v Speaker 4>make this firm perform well. Right, everyone will see it.

0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.959
<v Speaker 4>It's going to be highly public. The returns will just

0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:51.399
<v Speaker 4>be out there, and you know, we have a fiduciary obligation.

0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:55.080
<v Speaker 4>We've got a great fund manager that we've hired, and

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:59.119
<v Speaker 4>we're underwriting all of these deals extremely rigorously.

0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:00.119
<v Speaker 2>Think Think.

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.520
<v Speaker 4>The biggest worry that you have with things like this

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:07.399
<v Speaker 4>is actually adverse selection, right, is are you just going

0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.360
<v Speaker 4>to get into the deals of the companies that need

0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:12.760
<v Speaker 4>the money and are desperate for it. This is what

0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.760
<v Speaker 4>you run into with like new things. Typically, it's like,

0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:17.360
<v Speaker 4>when am I going to start?

0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:19.040
<v Speaker 2>This seems like what I think because I've got Like

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:22.160
<v Speaker 2>I mentioned this another episode, someone was like, Joe, someone

0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:24.480
<v Speaker 2>is selling some anthropic shares with this. Interesting. I'm not

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 2>investing in companies I cover in the private market, so

0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:29.159
<v Speaker 2>I'm not gonna do it. But like I always have

0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:31.440
<v Speaker 2>the thought, like, you know, if someone's offering to sell

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:32.600
<v Speaker 2>it to me, they must really want to.

0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:35.720
<v Speaker 3>When they're asking us.

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:37.160
<v Speaker 2>When they're like offering the equity to Joe, like that's

0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 2>like a bad sign. Not necessarily a bad sign, but

0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.280
<v Speaker 2>that adverse selection of like by the time it's getting

0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:45.640
<v Speaker 2>allocated to retail, like a bunch of people have decided

0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:46.359
<v Speaker 2>to part with it.

0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:48.760
<v Speaker 4>We have to flip that on its head. And actually

0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:51.880
<v Speaker 4>all of the deals that we've gotten into have been

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:54.919
<v Speaker 4>competitive deals, Like we've had to work for these allocations.

0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:57.040
<v Speaker 4>You know, I've had I have a lot of friends

0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:00.840
<v Speaker 4>that are venture capitalists, and I think some of them

0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 4>like I've been talking about this for a while, this

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.119
<v Speaker 4>general idea of we want to get in and actually

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:08.680
<v Speaker 4>start competing with you guys, you know, and they never

0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:11.560
<v Speaker 4>took me seriously. But then we started, you know, getting

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:14.400
<v Speaker 4>allocations and deals that they wanted allocations in, and I've

0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 4>started getting calls and they've been telling me, Hey, this

0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:19.639
<v Speaker 4>Robinhood venture is real thing. I have to contend with

0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:22.639
<v Speaker 4>you now. So I think we're very proud of the

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:26.000
<v Speaker 4>companies that we've gotten thus far. I think you made.

0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.560
<v Speaker 2>The point that one of the drawbacks is liquidity, which

0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 2>is always going to be a phenomenon in private markets.

0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:35.720
<v Speaker 2>Another drawback to this is that the investor doesn't know anything.

0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.160
<v Speaker 2>There's no ten queues, there's no earnings calls or anything

0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:42.320
<v Speaker 2>like that, and you know, you don't know, Okay, you

0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:46.440
<v Speaker 2>own some tiny slice of a private company, whether via

0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:49.560
<v Speaker 2>a token or whether via RVII, you don't really know

0:21:49.560 --> 0:21:51.679
<v Speaker 2>what the share count is. You don't know like how

0:21:51.760 --> 0:21:54.360
<v Speaker 2>much have they like allocated to employees this quarter? Because

0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:57.639
<v Speaker 2>they're there no obligation to think that are we heading

0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:00.320
<v Speaker 2>towards the world do you think in which the rade

0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:02.720
<v Speaker 2>off It's like, okay, investors can get access to almost

0:22:02.760 --> 0:22:05.480
<v Speaker 2>everything via some instrument. What are we heading to a

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:07.840
<v Speaker 2>world where the flip side is and they're going to

0:22:07.880 --> 0:22:10.040
<v Speaker 2>know a lot less about the companies that they've invested in.

0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:12.080
<v Speaker 4>I don't think so. I don't worry about that. And

0:22:12.359 --> 0:22:16.000
<v Speaker 4>in fact, one of the innovations that we've were putting

0:22:16.040 --> 0:22:19.440
<v Speaker 4>out there with the launch of this offering is private

0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:22.760
<v Speaker 4>company detail pages, so you'll actually be able to search

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:26.720
<v Speaker 4>for the private companies themselves in robinhood and see all

0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 4>of the information.

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:30.399
<v Speaker 2>But they're not going to like they're like revenues like earning,

0:22:30.600 --> 0:22:32.400
<v Speaker 2>like all the traditional met like they're not.

0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 4>It's publicly available information what they've chosen to share, but

0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:38.680
<v Speaker 4>it's all in one place, and you get a lot

0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:41.280
<v Speaker 4>of useful stuff in there. You see the valuation history,

0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 4>so you can see like you know, the chart of

0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:48.280
<v Speaker 4>companies like data breaks for example. Yeah, and I think

0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:50.840
<v Speaker 4>there's just a lot of information out there. I mean,

0:22:50.840 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 4>if you think about investing in a private company today

0:22:54.880 --> 0:22:58.720
<v Speaker 4>versus a retail investor investing in a public company, say

0:22:58.720 --> 0:23:01.639
<v Speaker 4>in the eighties, I venture to say, there's more information

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:05.920
<v Speaker 4>you have like app store, analytics data for consumer products.

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.840
<v Speaker 4>They're out there. A lot of these late stage privates

0:23:09.160 --> 0:23:12.639
<v Speaker 4>are doing public company like disclosures and audits on a

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 4>regular basis, because this isn't you know, these aren't hundred

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 4>million dollar companies. These are you know, some of them

0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 4>are in the hundreds of billions of valuations, tens of

0:23:22.640 --> 0:23:26.640
<v Speaker 4>billions probably fifteen years ago. These would have gone public

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.919
<v Speaker 4>a while ago. So I mean we've generally started with

0:23:30.040 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 4>household names with some exceptions that are already established at

0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 4>the frontiers of the industries. And these are like the

0:23:39.600 --> 0:23:42.520
<v Speaker 4>companies that would be closest to being public. So if

0:23:42.520 --> 0:23:45.920
<v Speaker 4>you think about you know, public company IPO access candidate,

0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:52.719
<v Speaker 4>robinhood Ventures, Robinhood Ventures is filling. It's like gradually extending backward. Actually,

0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:55.240
<v Speaker 4>the thing I'm most excited about, if I had to

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:59.840
<v Speaker 4>point to something, it's eventually getting to the earliest possible stages.

0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:03.320
<v Speaker 4>Like I think retail should be funding seed rounds, Like

0:24:03.359 --> 0:24:07.640
<v Speaker 4>the first capital in a company should have a retail participation.

0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:12.080
<v Speaker 4>And I think we hear from the customers. One of

0:24:12.080 --> 0:24:15.679
<v Speaker 4>the concerns is, well, these companies are fairly late stage.

0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:18.879
<v Speaker 4>How do I get exposure to something that's earlier so

0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:20.840
<v Speaker 4>I can get in on the ground floor. And I

0:24:20.880 --> 0:24:23.879
<v Speaker 4>think that's something we're excited to dig into and work on.

0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:27.440
<v Speaker 3>Would that be like a GoFundMe competitor or something, because

0:24:27.440 --> 0:24:29.520
<v Speaker 3>there are some good at starters.

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 4>Well, the difference is with those products you don't actually

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.840
<v Speaker 4>get any ownership. You're giving you're making a get.

0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:38.520
<v Speaker 3>Early products, I guess, but that's about it.

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:40.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, But what they want is ownership. They want to

0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:43.960
<v Speaker 4>invest in something when it's at a valuation of say

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:47.280
<v Speaker 4>ten million, and if it gets to ten billion, that's.

0:24:47.119 --> 0:24:49.080
<v Speaker 2>A and then they'll learn that ninety nine percent of

0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 2>those companies go to zero, but they have to learn

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:51.960
<v Speaker 2>that lesson for themselves.

0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:54.000
<v Speaker 4>It sounds like, well, you know, that's where we come in, right,

0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:56.920
<v Speaker 4>and we think that we can, like we can figure

0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:00.280
<v Speaker 4>out what what the right deals are and what what

0:25:00.320 --> 0:25:04.840
<v Speaker 4>we intend to do is offer great companies to customers.

0:25:05.160 --> 0:25:07.320
<v Speaker 3>Well, on this note, and just going back to the

0:25:07.400 --> 0:25:10.359
<v Speaker 3>Ventures fund as well. I mean, one other issue I

0:25:10.480 --> 0:25:13.760
<v Speaker 3>foresee is that you see a lot of flow and

0:25:13.840 --> 0:25:16.800
<v Speaker 3>information in the market, and you can imagine some of

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:20.199
<v Speaker 3>your competitors potentially thinking that, you know, maybe some of

0:25:20.200 --> 0:25:23.200
<v Speaker 3>that flow would inform how the fund is actually managed.

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:25.199
<v Speaker 3>I mean in some respects like you're starting to get

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:28.560
<v Speaker 3>a little bit investment banky where you have this huge

0:25:28.600 --> 0:25:31.200
<v Speaker 3>flow business that you can glean market insights from, and

0:25:31.240 --> 0:25:34.680
<v Speaker 3>then you also have managed funds. How are you sort

0:25:34.680 --> 0:25:38.199
<v Speaker 3>of hiving off those two activities or how are you

0:25:38.240 --> 0:25:40.760
<v Speaker 3>thinking about how like the data and the flow data

0:25:40.800 --> 0:25:43.560
<v Speaker 3>that you see, how will that actually inform management?

0:25:43.960 --> 0:25:47.479
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean certainly one of the advantages is we

0:25:47.520 --> 0:25:49.439
<v Speaker 4>know what retail investors are interested in.

0:25:49.520 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And by and.

0:25:50.640 --> 0:25:54.400
<v Speaker 4>Large, what we try to do is give people things

0:25:54.400 --> 0:25:56.600
<v Speaker 4>they're interested in. You know, if they're not interested in it,

0:25:56.600 --> 0:25:59.000
<v Speaker 4>it's not going to be a successful product. So I

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:02.000
<v Speaker 4>think that's a big differentiator as we think about this

0:26:02.119 --> 0:26:05.280
<v Speaker 4>product in terms of how the fund is managed. It

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:09.280
<v Speaker 4>has a separate board with great board members, separate you know,

0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:13.960
<v Speaker 4>everything auditing, compliance, So it's like a company within robin Hood,

0:26:14.080 --> 0:26:15.080
<v Speaker 4>the management company.

0:26:15.040 --> 0:26:16.959
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so there's a Chinese wall effectively.

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:21.679
<v Speaker 4>Well, you know, you get into legal questions that I

0:26:21.680 --> 0:26:23.280
<v Speaker 4>don't even know if that word is appropriate.

0:26:23.320 --> 0:26:25.159
<v Speaker 3>I was going to say, I don't think we're supposed

0:26:25.160 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 3>to use that anymore, so I'm sorry.

0:26:26.800 --> 0:26:29.800
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, of course you can imagine everything that we

0:26:29.920 --> 0:26:34.920
<v Speaker 4>do is highly regulated and scrutinized by armies of professionals.

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:37.919
<v Speaker 4>So yeah, that's that's the one thing. We were so

0:26:39.119 --> 0:26:42.200
<v Speaker 4>established at this point that we have to play everything

0:26:42.240 --> 0:26:42.840
<v Speaker 4>by the books.

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:00.880
<v Speaker 2>Can we talk about prediction mark, Yeah for a little bit,

0:27:01.200 --> 0:27:03.479
<v Speaker 2>have a lot, we have a lot of questions about this.

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:06.720
<v Speaker 2>You have a relationship with Kelshy, so people can actually

0:27:06.760 --> 0:27:12.399
<v Speaker 2>access Kelshi's markets through the robin Hood platform. When trying

0:27:12.400 --> 0:27:16.040
<v Speaker 2>to understand who is going to make money in prediction markets,

0:27:16.200 --> 0:27:21.080
<v Speaker 2>which is more valuable the liquidity pool and activity that's

0:27:21.160 --> 0:27:26.600
<v Speaker 2>emerged on Kelshi or the distribution that you have through

0:27:26.920 --> 0:27:30.320
<v Speaker 2>Robinhood and like, which is the harder thing to replicate here.

0:27:30.640 --> 0:27:34.080
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean it's fundamentally too different businesses. Right. You

0:27:34.119 --> 0:27:37.800
<v Speaker 4>can think of Calshi in this case playing a role

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:42.720
<v Speaker 4>similar to an exchange in the equities and options markets. Yeah,

0:27:42.760 --> 0:27:48.520
<v Speaker 4>so it's like institutional business predominantly, although in CFTC Land

0:27:48.880 --> 0:27:51.520
<v Speaker 4>it's interesting that the exchanges also have the ability to

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:54.840
<v Speaker 4>go direct to consumer, which you don't see in in

0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:59.439
<v Speaker 4>traditional equities. And it's a business where you're matching orders,

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:03.680
<v Speaker 4>so you're working with market makers, you're working with professional traders.

0:28:03.840 --> 0:28:07.280
<v Speaker 4>You have retail as well, and to win there you

0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:10.639
<v Speaker 4>have to have great technology, low latency, you have to

0:28:11.119 --> 0:28:17.200
<v Speaker 4>be good about listing products, maintaining market integrity. And it's

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:21.280
<v Speaker 4>like a complex business, right, And that's why the businesses

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.960
<v Speaker 4>that have gotten scale and traditional assets are worth tens

0:28:24.960 --> 0:28:29.720
<v Speaker 4>of billions of dollars sometimes more. We have a slightly

0:28:29.800 --> 0:28:33.600
<v Speaker 4>different business model. The way to think about Robinhood is

0:28:33.640 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 4>where a financial super app we should be the best

0:28:36.040 --> 0:28:39.880
<v Speaker 4>place to keep your money and your assets, and we're

0:28:39.920 --> 0:28:42.000
<v Speaker 4>building products to make sure more and more of your

0:28:42.040 --> 0:28:45.239
<v Speaker 4>financial life. Ideally, all of it is on Robinhood. So

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:48.840
<v Speaker 4>if you want to trade prediction markets, options futures, you're

0:28:48.840 --> 0:28:51.720
<v Speaker 4>an active trader, we should get one hundred percent of

0:28:51.760 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 4>your active trading activity, and we compete for that. We

0:28:54.600 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 4>also want your retirement account, your kids, custodial accounts, your trusts,

0:28:59.000 --> 0:29:02.760
<v Speaker 4>all of your mutual fund. Eventually, you're spending activity through

0:29:02.760 --> 0:29:06.560
<v Speaker 4>our card product, you're banking through checking and savings. So

0:29:06.680 --> 0:29:10.600
<v Speaker 4>it's really about how do we own the entire financial

0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:14.800
<v Speaker 4>relationship and we vertically integrate where it makes sense, where

0:29:14.800 --> 0:29:17.560
<v Speaker 4>we think we have a unique advantage. But it's not

0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:22.880
<v Speaker 4>like a focused exchange business, although you know, I should

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:27.040
<v Speaker 4>say we entered into an agreement. We've acquired a stake

0:29:27.440 --> 0:29:31.000
<v Speaker 4>in rather Era, which is formerly ledger x, which is

0:29:31.160 --> 0:29:35.120
<v Speaker 4>a DCM, So we do intend to actually vertically integrate

0:29:35.160 --> 0:29:36.960
<v Speaker 4>the prediction market side of the business.

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 3>So one of the things we often hear in defense

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:43.000
<v Speaker 3>of prediction markets is this idea that like, well, actually,

0:29:43.160 --> 0:29:45.760
<v Speaker 3>if you're an institutional investor, this could be a way

0:29:45.880 --> 0:29:49.000
<v Speaker 3>to hedge some exposure that you have. So I don't know,

0:29:49.000 --> 0:29:51.320
<v Speaker 3>if you're an airline and a huge part of your

0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:53.880
<v Speaker 3>expense account is oil, maybe you would take a position

0:29:54.000 --> 0:29:56.960
<v Speaker 3>on what's happening in Iran or something like that. Yeah,

0:29:57.000 --> 0:29:59.280
<v Speaker 3>I know that. Or if you're a retail investor, well,

0:29:59.320 --> 0:30:00.720
<v Speaker 3>this was going to be my next question. I know

0:30:00.800 --> 0:30:03.760
<v Speaker 3>that you see mostly how retail investors are behaving, But

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:06.000
<v Speaker 3>do you see any evidence that people are like thinking

0:30:06.080 --> 0:30:10.120
<v Speaker 3>through it that systemically versus just like placing a bet

0:30:10.280 --> 0:30:13.320
<v Speaker 3>on whatever particular contract kind of catches their eye.

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:15.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, I think there's lots of stories out

0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:20.080
<v Speaker 4>there that have been covered about people being incredibly scientific

0:30:20.360 --> 0:30:24.640
<v Speaker 4>about all their trading and prediction. Markets gives you a

0:30:24.720 --> 0:30:27.680
<v Speaker 4>wide surface area to do that under. I mean you

0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:30.840
<v Speaker 4>have obviously the sports contracts, which everyone likes to talk about,

0:30:30.880 --> 0:30:35.920
<v Speaker 4>but economics, you've got a contract on alien disclosure, which

0:30:36.040 --> 0:30:39.040
<v Speaker 4>I really that's one of my favorite ones. Last I

0:30:39.120 --> 0:30:42.160
<v Speaker 4>tracked twenty two percent chance that there will be alien

0:30:42.200 --> 0:30:44.560
<v Speaker 4>disclosure by the US government this year.

0:30:44.600 --> 0:30:47.000
<v Speaker 3>At rising I think rising recently after all the WHI.

0:30:47.000 --> 0:30:50.400
<v Speaker 4>Well, there's been some chatter about it for sure, But yeah,

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:53.600
<v Speaker 4>I mean I think that, like there's people out there

0:30:53.640 --> 0:30:57.360
<v Speaker 4>that are studying these things in detail. They're building models,

0:30:57.840 --> 0:31:01.120
<v Speaker 4>and what you find is with any nascent market, before

0:31:01.160 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 4>you get like full institutional participation, there's more opportunities, and

0:31:06.120 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 4>I think now we're before the point where these opportunities

0:31:10.200 --> 0:31:12.800
<v Speaker 4>are arbitraged by the big players.

0:31:13.120 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 2>I asked this question recently to CFTC Chairman Michael Seelig,

0:31:17.080 --> 0:31:19.760
<v Speaker 2>and I think we kind of got a no answer,

0:31:19.800 --> 0:31:21.800
<v Speaker 2>if I'm being honest, So maybe I'll try it with

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:26.320
<v Speaker 2>you as you understand it today. Would there be any

0:31:26.600 --> 0:31:30.720
<v Speaker 2>limitation legally on Robin Hood setting up a live stream

0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:34.760
<v Speaker 2>of a giant roulette wheel and having people make futures

0:31:34.840 --> 0:31:37.000
<v Speaker 2>event contracts on whether it's red or black?

0:31:37.520 --> 0:31:41.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean currently our policy has been to have

0:31:42.000 --> 0:31:45.640
<v Speaker 4>them be backed by real events, So we don't want

0:31:45.680 --> 0:31:50.360
<v Speaker 4>to do like derivative. We haven't done any derivative prediction markets.

0:31:50.440 --> 0:31:54.160
<v Speaker 4>And there's different forms of that as well, Like you

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:56.920
<v Speaker 4>have like prediction markets, and then you have a prediction

0:31:57.040 --> 0:32:00.400
<v Speaker 4>market on how this prediction market is to go.

0:32:00.800 --> 0:32:04.479
<v Speaker 2>So like, for example, polymarket had a market where it

0:32:04.520 --> 0:32:06.160
<v Speaker 2>was the coin toss at the Super Bowl you could

0:32:06.160 --> 0:32:08.280
<v Speaker 2>bet on heads or tails and was trading a fifty

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:10.280
<v Speaker 2>percent yeah for the toss. Then it went to it.

0:32:10.400 --> 0:32:12.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it seems very much like gambling, right.

0:32:12.320 --> 0:32:14.920
<v Speaker 2>Well, like why even bother having the Super Bowl. At

0:32:14.920 --> 0:32:17.160
<v Speaker 2>that point, if people are willing to like bet money

0:32:17.240 --> 0:32:19.640
<v Speaker 2>on a coin toss why not just have a continuous

0:32:19.680 --> 0:32:21.680
<v Speaker 2>coin tok Well, I just forget the Super Bowl. Just

0:32:21.680 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 2>have a coin tossing machine and let people trade on it.

0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:27.520
<v Speaker 2>Is there, like, is there anything actually like stopping you

0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:28.120
<v Speaker 2>from doing that?

0:32:28.560 --> 0:32:31.960
<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure. Yeah, I mean I'd have to look

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:35.920
<v Speaker 4>into that. We don't offer any of those contracts. I personally,

0:32:36.280 --> 0:32:39.760
<v Speaker 4>you know, I'm a former trader, probably wouldn't trade those.

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:43.600
<v Speaker 4>I think the purposes for people trading them is probably

0:32:43.640 --> 0:32:47.240
<v Speaker 4>more entertainment. But yeah, that's not to say that all

0:32:47.320 --> 0:32:50.680
<v Speaker 4>prediction markets are like that. And I'm not against people

0:32:50.840 --> 0:32:56.040
<v Speaker 4>innovating because that's how we discover things. Right Like, generally speaking,

0:32:56.240 --> 0:32:58.520
<v Speaker 4>I'm in favor of people trying new things and seeing

0:32:58.520 --> 0:33:01.000
<v Speaker 4>what happens, as long as nobody is getting heart and

0:33:01.160 --> 0:33:04.280
<v Speaker 4>you know, market integrity and investor protection, all of that

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:05.120
<v Speaker 4>is being upheld.

0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:08.000
<v Speaker 2>Just on the relationship with kel, she like, you want

0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:11.400
<v Speaker 2>to be this one stop shop for all money. Presumably

0:33:11.440 --> 0:33:14.520
<v Speaker 2>they're polymarket is going to build out its US version.

0:33:15.280 --> 0:33:18.480
<v Speaker 2>I don't know exactly what's dated that. There's my other competitors.

0:33:18.960 --> 0:33:20.960
<v Speaker 2>Is that going to be an exclusive thing or will

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:23.600
<v Speaker 2>you will is the goal, so that a user of

0:33:23.680 --> 0:33:26.120
<v Speaker 2>Robinhood can trade predictions on any platform.

0:33:26.280 --> 0:33:30.320
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so even currently our relationship, we connect to multiple

0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:35.959
<v Speaker 4>prediction market back end exchanges. Calshie obviously is the larger

0:33:36.400 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 4>because they have the vibrant sports contracts and they've been

0:33:40.640 --> 0:33:43.800
<v Speaker 4>moving fast. We also have forecast Decks, which is the

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:49.240
<v Speaker 4>prediction markets subsidiary of Interactive Brokers, and as I mentioned before,

0:33:49.360 --> 0:33:52.560
<v Speaker 4>we've got rother Thera, which is which is ours. And

0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:56.360
<v Speaker 4>also we're continuing to talk to these guys. Everyone's interested in,

0:33:56.960 --> 0:34:00.640
<v Speaker 4>you know, having access to Robinhood customers sending our or there.

0:34:01.040 --> 0:34:03.080
<v Speaker 4>And I think the way this plays out is similar

0:34:03.120 --> 0:34:07.080
<v Speaker 4>to our other asset classes, where we prioritize for where

0:34:07.080 --> 0:34:09.600
<v Speaker 4>the customer is going to get the best execution and

0:34:09.680 --> 0:34:14.440
<v Speaker 4>also contract variety, and we'll send our orders there. And

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:17.240
<v Speaker 4>I think where this ends up is you'll have lots

0:34:17.239 --> 0:34:21.120
<v Speaker 4>and lots of destinations, you'll have smart order routing, and

0:34:21.680 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 4>the contracts I think will be increasingly fungible. So at

0:34:25.200 --> 0:34:28.360
<v Speaker 4>some point there's going to be a way to cross

0:34:28.400 --> 0:34:31.560
<v Speaker 4>books and actually offload risk. And you know, you'll have

0:34:31.680 --> 0:34:36.080
<v Speaker 4>the election contract here an election contract there and there

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:39.640
<v Speaker 4>will be a layer where you can actually like even

0:34:39.680 --> 0:34:43.000
<v Speaker 4>though there's technically on different exchanges, exchange one for the other.

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:45.200
<v Speaker 3>I'd say more about this because this was actually going

0:34:45.239 --> 0:34:47.720
<v Speaker 3>to be my next question. But when you think about

0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:51.359
<v Speaker 3>what makes a good prediction market, the complaint that we

0:34:51.400 --> 0:34:53.680
<v Speaker 3>often hear is, well, there's just not enough size, there's

0:34:53.680 --> 0:34:56.640
<v Speaker 3>not enough liquidity in the contract. So I imagine a

0:34:56.640 --> 0:34:59.279
<v Speaker 3>big component of who you're partnering with is just like

0:34:59.680 --> 0:35:03.040
<v Speaker 3>the law largest platform that's out there, like a CALCI.

0:35:03.640 --> 0:35:07.360
<v Speaker 3>But can you describe, like actually what you think makes

0:35:07.480 --> 0:35:10.279
<v Speaker 3>a good prediction market for investors, Like what are the

0:35:10.320 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 3>pros and cons of each one?

0:35:11.760 --> 0:35:15.239
<v Speaker 4>Yeah? I mean I think volume and liquidity and contract

0:35:15.280 --> 0:35:20.040
<v Speaker 4>selection are the big things. Contract selection. Customers want selection,

0:35:20.120 --> 0:35:22.320
<v Speaker 4>they want variety, they want to be able to explore,

0:35:22.719 --> 0:35:26.440
<v Speaker 4>and both traders value this because they can trade more things,

0:35:26.719 --> 0:35:29.839
<v Speaker 4>but also the casual use case of just looking at

0:35:29.840 --> 0:35:33.319
<v Speaker 4>the markets and figuring out what the odds of events are.

0:35:34.000 --> 0:35:38.920
<v Speaker 4>Liquidity obviously improves things. It improves the prices and also

0:35:39.280 --> 0:35:42.680
<v Speaker 4>improves the odds of getting filled if you bring in

0:35:42.719 --> 0:35:47.480
<v Speaker 4>an order with size and costs transaction costs. Yeah, yeah,

0:35:47.480 --> 0:35:50.680
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I think those are basically the main things.

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:55.880
<v Speaker 2>It's very easy with prediction markets to replicate things that

0:35:55.920 --> 0:35:57.960
<v Speaker 2>we don't think of his event contracts. So you can

0:35:58.239 --> 0:36:02.600
<v Speaker 2>recreate a line that like equity or futures on a

0:36:02.640 --> 0:36:05.560
<v Speaker 2>prediction market, you could you know, you could have and

0:36:05.680 --> 0:36:06.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm curious, like.

0:36:06.800 --> 0:36:08.680
<v Speaker 4>And I think some of those products are very useful.

0:36:08.800 --> 0:36:12.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's exactly what, guest. Do you see era a

0:36:12.320 --> 0:36:17.040
<v Speaker 2>point where, particularly from the perspective of a trader, where

0:36:17.160 --> 0:36:21.799
<v Speaker 2>essentially the exchange itself can be disrupted or sort of

0:36:22.120 --> 0:36:25.839
<v Speaker 2>napsterized or something like that because they have the instruments

0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:29.240
<v Speaker 2>to get the price exposure that they want without having

0:36:29.320 --> 0:36:32.200
<v Speaker 2>to interact with the traditional equity layer.

0:36:33.040 --> 0:36:36.799
<v Speaker 4>I think it's different. You know, I think that obviously

0:36:37.000 --> 0:36:43.239
<v Speaker 4>equity exposure is extremely low cost right now, Yeah, in

0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:45.680
<v Speaker 4>large part due to our efforts in the space. But

0:36:45.800 --> 0:36:48.680
<v Speaker 4>if you want to buy an equity, I mean, it's

0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:53.480
<v Speaker 4>just never been cheaper. Are all in monetization on equities

0:36:53.520 --> 0:36:57.920
<v Speaker 4>business is like two basis points, So I don't really

0:36:57.960 --> 0:37:01.480
<v Speaker 4>think it's competitive with that product. The other thing is

0:37:01.520 --> 0:37:05.200
<v Speaker 4>you have leverage, which again Robinhood for our active traders

0:37:05.400 --> 0:37:09.440
<v Speaker 4>great margin rates. I mean I think the most competitive

0:37:09.440 --> 0:37:11.920
<v Speaker 4>margin rates in the industry, at least that I'm aware of.

0:37:12.440 --> 0:37:14.640
<v Speaker 2>Will you provide leverage to prediction market traders?

0:37:14.920 --> 0:37:18.239
<v Speaker 4>Right now, leverage is not permissible at prediction markets, but

0:37:18.280 --> 0:37:20.279
<v Speaker 4>that's something a lot of people are talking about and

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:24.160
<v Speaker 4>that you're about, Well, it's I guess we're working on

0:37:24.160 --> 0:37:27.400
<v Speaker 4>it to some degree, which is just driving towards clarity.

0:37:27.600 --> 0:37:30.920
<v Speaker 4>But since that would have to be an exchange product,

0:37:31.400 --> 0:37:34.240
<v Speaker 4>the exchanges would actually have to have to get clarity.

0:37:34.719 --> 0:37:36.680
<v Speaker 4>But I think it's coming. Look, I mean, I don't

0:37:36.719 --> 0:37:40.560
<v Speaker 4>think you could. You can imagine the market's still in

0:37:40.600 --> 0:37:44.200
<v Speaker 4>its infancy, so you'll get all of these things introduced.

0:37:44.640 --> 0:37:46.840
<v Speaker 4>And when you look at the options markets for traders,

0:37:47.200 --> 0:37:51.359
<v Speaker 4>the leverage is actually a very attractive element of it,

0:37:51.440 --> 0:37:54.520
<v Speaker 4>being able to put in a relatively small amount of

0:37:54.520 --> 0:37:57.920
<v Speaker 4>money and get large exposure. So I think there's a

0:37:57.960 --> 0:38:02.360
<v Speaker 4>lot that prediction markets. There's a lot of growth and

0:38:02.480 --> 0:38:05.279
<v Speaker 4>a lot of evolution that's needed before it becomes like

0:38:05.440 --> 0:38:09.880
<v Speaker 4>a full institutional grade asset. But it's underway, and we

0:38:09.880 --> 0:38:12.319
<v Speaker 4>should assume that it's going to happen, and it's going

0:38:12.360 --> 0:38:15.160
<v Speaker 4>to happen quickly. And I think there's all sorts of

0:38:15.920 --> 0:38:19.240
<v Speaker 4>we view this and we have early insight because we're actually,

0:38:19.440 --> 0:38:21.920
<v Speaker 4>I think one of the only places where you can

0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:24.640
<v Speaker 4>have all these assets in one place. We don't see

0:38:24.680 --> 0:38:28.120
<v Speaker 4>any cannibalization. Traders love it, and I think we see

0:38:28.120 --> 0:38:31.919
<v Speaker 4>an opportunity in combining all of these assets into one

0:38:32.280 --> 0:38:35.840
<v Speaker 4>cohesive picture. For example, you can imagine you have a

0:38:35.880 --> 0:38:39.640
<v Speaker 4>particular equity. In that equity detail page, say it's a

0:38:39.719 --> 0:38:43.560
<v Speaker 4>Tesla or another company, you see prediction markets related to

0:38:44.280 --> 0:38:47.080
<v Speaker 4>that company, and then that gives you a comprehensive view

0:38:47.080 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 4>and you can trade very specific things. We think there's

0:38:50.040 --> 0:38:52.719
<v Speaker 4>a big opportunity in earnings as well. A lot of

0:38:52.800 --> 0:38:55.040
<v Speaker 4>people have thoughts on how companies are going to do

0:38:55.080 --> 0:38:58.560
<v Speaker 4>with earnings. They have models. Stock price is an imperfect

0:38:58.600 --> 0:39:03.120
<v Speaker 4>proxy for that. So the EPs and revenue contract directly

0:39:03.160 --> 0:39:05.920
<v Speaker 4>would be would be very attractive. And right now, that's

0:39:05.960 --> 0:39:08.720
<v Speaker 4>in a little bit of a limbo because it meets

0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:12.239
<v Speaker 4>the criteria of a securities based swap, which would be

0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:17.440
<v Speaker 4>an sec product. Right so harmonization is needed to clear

0:39:17.480 --> 0:39:20.400
<v Speaker 4>the path for listing products like that, which we're working

0:39:20.440 --> 0:39:23.879
<v Speaker 4>with the regulators and collaborating to try to figure out.

0:39:24.560 --> 0:39:27.080
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, it's it's it's exciting from like a market

0:39:27.200 --> 0:39:30.000
<v Speaker 4>node standpoint because we're in the early innings and you

0:39:30.000 --> 0:39:31.799
<v Speaker 4>can kind of see the future of how it's going

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:34.120
<v Speaker 4>to evolve. It's going to be a much bigger asset class,

0:39:34.200 --> 0:39:38.280
<v Speaker 4>much more institutional. It's evolved similar I think it'll evolve

0:39:38.360 --> 0:39:41.640
<v Speaker 4>similarly but more quickly to other asset classes that have

0:39:41.719 --> 0:39:42.840
<v Speaker 4>come in in the past.

0:39:43.080 --> 0:39:45.480
<v Speaker 3>Just going back to token nice stocks for a second,

0:39:46.000 --> 0:39:50.080
<v Speaker 3>does consent matter at all? That sounded more like epsteinish

0:39:50.120 --> 0:39:52.680
<v Speaker 3>than intended it to sound like. But like, if an

0:39:52.719 --> 0:39:54.920
<v Speaker 3>open aye comes out and says like, we have some

0:39:55.000 --> 0:39:58.719
<v Speaker 3>reservations about this, we have some concerns, would that give

0:39:58.760 --> 0:40:02.799
<v Speaker 3>you pause for providing token in that particular company? And

0:40:02.840 --> 0:40:05.080
<v Speaker 3>then you know, your role in the market is expanding

0:40:05.200 --> 0:40:08.000
<v Speaker 3>as you start these new venture funds and things like that.

0:40:08.480 --> 0:40:12.160
<v Speaker 3>You might not want to annoy a bunch of private

0:40:12.200 --> 0:40:16.240
<v Speaker 3>companies at this stage. So how are you balancing those considerations?

0:40:16.400 --> 0:40:20.200
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, these are all considerations that we're thinking through. Obviously

0:40:20.480 --> 0:40:23.440
<v Speaker 4>right now. The policy that we have is we'd like

0:40:23.480 --> 0:40:26.080
<v Speaker 4>to get the consent of the companies. We want them

0:40:26.080 --> 0:40:28.719
<v Speaker 4>to be on board. I think that if you think

0:40:28.760 --> 0:40:32.640
<v Speaker 4>about it from now now here's the nuance. Let's say

0:40:32.719 --> 0:40:37.760
<v Speaker 4>you're an accredited high net worth individual. There are ways

0:40:37.800 --> 0:40:42.520
<v Speaker 4>to get exposure to these companies without the company consenting. Right,

0:40:42.960 --> 0:40:45.600
<v Speaker 4>they just don't care. But legally you have a mechan

0:40:45.680 --> 0:40:50.040
<v Speaker 4>you could become LP and an SPV that exists. There's

0:40:50.080 --> 0:40:54.600
<v Speaker 4>these ways where companies have already lost control of who

0:40:54.600 --> 0:40:57.080
<v Speaker 4>their shareholder base is, and not to mention, when they

0:40:57.080 --> 0:41:00.839
<v Speaker 4>go public, you've completely lost control of your shareholder base.

0:41:01.680 --> 0:41:05.799
<v Speaker 4>So I think, since it's early, obviously our approaches we

0:41:05.880 --> 0:41:09.680
<v Speaker 4>want to make sure everything is. We don't want anyone

0:41:09.719 --> 0:41:12.600
<v Speaker 4>saying they don't want Robin Hood Ventures invest in their

0:41:12.600 --> 0:41:15.520
<v Speaker 4>company and throwing ice water over it. Not to say

0:41:15.520 --> 0:41:18.680
<v Speaker 4>that that's going to be the policy forever, but that's

0:41:18.760 --> 0:41:21.560
<v Speaker 4>kind of the that's the approach where we're taking.

0:41:21.600 --> 0:41:23.680
<v Speaker 2>Now, do you want to just drop your new card

0:41:23.719 --> 0:41:26.319
<v Speaker 2>on the table? I know, my god, so you have.

0:41:26.800 --> 0:41:28.680
<v Speaker 2>We could just we don't need to do a big

0:41:28.719 --> 0:41:30.640
<v Speaker 2>like ad for like all the great people can look

0:41:30.680 --> 0:41:32.319
<v Speaker 2>that up. But you have this new platinum card.

0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:34.840
<v Speaker 3>It is really bad, op seck. If he's like dropping

0:41:34.840 --> 0:41:36.880
<v Speaker 3>his credit no, just want to hear how it sounds.

0:41:37.200 --> 0:41:39.040
<v Speaker 4>This is the most secure credit card on the market.

0:41:39.080 --> 0:41:40.160
<v Speaker 4>Your number is not on it.

0:41:40.320 --> 0:41:43.320
<v Speaker 2>Oh, oh that is legit.

0:41:43.400 --> 0:41:44.600
<v Speaker 4>Would you like to hold it?

0:41:44.760 --> 0:41:49.160
<v Speaker 3>I would yes, So this is nice. This is really nice.

0:41:49.239 --> 0:41:51.920
<v Speaker 4>I got the heaviest card on the market, beats out

0:41:51.920 --> 0:41:52.960
<v Speaker 4>the Robin Hood Gold. Yeah.

0:41:53.000 --> 0:41:55.400
<v Speaker 2>Wait, actually drop the gold card. Now, let's hear the difference.

0:41:56.719 --> 0:41:57.280
<v Speaker 4>Very different.

0:41:57.960 --> 0:41:59.279
<v Speaker 2>No one watched that puny gold.

0:41:59.520 --> 0:42:00.640
<v Speaker 3>Here, here's the pointing.

0:42:00.680 --> 0:42:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Here's the platinum. Let me drop the platinum.

0:42:03.040 --> 0:42:05.040
<v Speaker 4>So let me tell you. I can tell you the

0:42:05.040 --> 0:42:08.319
<v Speaker 4>thesis behind this card, if it makes sense. We want

0:42:08.360 --> 0:42:12.560
<v Speaker 4>this to be like the James Bond card. If you

0:42:12.640 --> 0:42:15.279
<v Speaker 4>are James Bond, this is the card for you. If

0:42:15.360 --> 0:42:18.399
<v Speaker 4>James Bond, Sean Connery himself were to have a credit card,

0:42:18.440 --> 0:42:21.879
<v Speaker 4>he would have this card. And I think we tried

0:42:21.880 --> 0:42:24.000
<v Speaker 4>to evoke that feeling, not just in the design of

0:42:24.000 --> 0:42:26.239
<v Speaker 4>the card, but if you look at the website, we

0:42:26.280 --> 0:42:29.520
<v Speaker 4>have a scuba diver, we have like these nice planes.

0:42:29.880 --> 0:42:31.680
<v Speaker 4>So yeah, we we.

0:42:31.719 --> 0:42:34.000
<v Speaker 2>Really tried to say if I pulled that out, my

0:42:34.000 --> 0:42:35.000
<v Speaker 2>friends won't make fun of me.

0:42:36.719 --> 0:42:40.239
<v Speaker 4>You'rey, Actually I really like it. Well, actually it's got

0:42:40.320 --> 0:42:44.120
<v Speaker 4>five percent dining credit. That's probably that's nobody offers that

0:42:44.280 --> 0:42:47.600
<v Speaker 4>with the high limit. So it's actually intended for you

0:42:47.680 --> 0:42:50.000
<v Speaker 4>to treat your friends, okay, and take it out.

0:42:50.040 --> 0:42:51.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to complain. They're not going to make

0:42:51.680 --> 0:42:52.960
<v Speaker 2>fun of me when I'm paying for dinner.

0:42:53.200 --> 0:42:55.360
<v Speaker 4>And what we found was with the Gold card, a

0:42:55.360 --> 0:42:57.479
<v Speaker 4>lot of people, a lot of people don't really use

0:42:57.560 --> 0:43:01.600
<v Speaker 4>physical cards. It's Apple pay, but the moments when you

0:43:01.719 --> 0:43:05.280
<v Speaker 4>use your physical card, it's less of a payment instrument.

0:43:05.400 --> 0:43:08.160
<v Speaker 4>It's more like a state Let me show you my watch, right,

0:43:08.160 --> 0:43:11.200
<v Speaker 4>it's a it's a fashion accessory. It's a luxury good.

0:43:11.400 --> 0:43:13.680
<v Speaker 4>And I don't know if the credit card industry is

0:43:13.719 --> 0:43:17.240
<v Speaker 4>really has really evolved. I think to the same degree iPhone.

0:43:17.680 --> 0:43:20.359
<v Speaker 4>You know you have the orange iPhones. Now it's it's

0:43:20.360 --> 0:43:23.520
<v Speaker 4>a fashion accessory, less of a utilitarian good. And I

0:43:23.600 --> 0:43:26.040
<v Speaker 4>think physical cards the same way It used to be

0:43:26.080 --> 0:43:28.560
<v Speaker 4>that people wanted physical cards that were as light as

0:43:28.600 --> 0:43:32.040
<v Speaker 4>possible because it's served a utilitarian purpose. You want to

0:43:32.080 --> 0:43:33.680
<v Speaker 4>keep it in your wallet, and you want your wallet

0:43:33.719 --> 0:43:36.879
<v Speaker 4>to be light so that you're not hunched over. Now

0:43:36.920 --> 0:43:38.920
<v Speaker 4>I think it's a little bit different. It's an extension

0:43:38.960 --> 0:43:39.959
<v Speaker 4>of your personality.

0:43:40.080 --> 0:43:44.200
<v Speaker 3>So I'm a big fan of physicality in everyday products

0:43:44.280 --> 0:43:48.520
<v Speaker 3>like remember the queue the tungsten cue. Yeah, like that

0:43:48.640 --> 0:43:52.800
<v Speaker 3>was a direct response to like the ephemerality ephemerals crypto

0:43:53.040 --> 0:43:55.920
<v Speaker 3>of crypto, right, Like you want something that's tangible and

0:43:56.000 --> 0:43:57.040
<v Speaker 3>like feels heavy in your head.

0:43:57.080 --> 0:44:00.560
<v Speaker 4>I keep telling Deepak that a tungsten card of crypto

0:44:00.600 --> 0:44:01.439
<v Speaker 4>people would be cool.

0:44:01.560 --> 0:44:02.319
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, get on that.

0:44:03.440 --> 0:44:04.040
<v Speaker 3>You should do that.

0:44:04.080 --> 0:44:05.680
<v Speaker 4>It's not a bad idea Blood.

0:44:05.440 --> 0:44:07.800
<v Speaker 2>Tendant, thank you so much for coming back on oblock.

0:44:07.840 --> 0:44:09.960
<v Speaker 4>Great adding Yeah, always a pleasure. Thank you.

0:44:10.000 --> 0:44:24.880
<v Speaker 2>Gad to me, Trichy. I love catching up with Flood.

0:44:24.960 --> 0:44:28.200
<v Speaker 2>I mean, robin Hood is a company that is like

0:44:28.840 --> 0:44:31.560
<v Speaker 2>so far ahead of the curve in basically everything that's

0:44:31.560 --> 0:44:36.400
<v Speaker 2>happened with like the retailization of every market, the complete

0:44:36.480 --> 0:44:39.799
<v Speaker 2>breaking down of every distinction between what's a stock, what's

0:44:39.800 --> 0:44:42.680
<v Speaker 2>the future, what's a token, et cetera. Like they're right

0:44:42.680 --> 0:44:43.480
<v Speaker 2>in the middle of all of it.

0:44:43.680 --> 0:44:47.360
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, And also there's a reflexivity here, right, because the

0:44:47.400 --> 0:44:51.239
<v Speaker 3>bigger Robinhood gets, the more its offerings kind of matter

0:44:51.320 --> 0:44:53.719
<v Speaker 3>for the way the market itself behaves. So I think

0:44:53.719 --> 0:44:56.600
<v Speaker 3>it's definitely a worthwhile discussion. I gotta say, though, like

0:44:56.719 --> 0:45:01.799
<v Speaker 3>the financialization of everything, do you find a little bit dystopian?

0:45:02.160 --> 0:45:06.160
<v Speaker 3>I remember like, I went to Macaw once and I've

0:45:06.360 --> 0:45:08.279
<v Speaker 3>been there. I was really looking forward to it because

0:45:08.280 --> 0:45:11.240
<v Speaker 3>I was thinking, you know, the Las Vegas of the East.

0:45:11.440 --> 0:45:13.400
<v Speaker 3>But a lot of the gambling I found like pretty

0:45:13.400 --> 0:45:16.759
<v Speaker 3>depressing because some of it was as basic as like

0:45:16.840 --> 0:45:18.800
<v Speaker 3>let's roll the dice and if it's a high number,

0:45:19.120 --> 0:45:20.880
<v Speaker 3>you win, and if it's a low number, you lose,

0:45:20.960 --> 0:45:25.000
<v Speaker 3>and taking like those kind of very simplistic binary bets. Yeah,

0:45:25.000 --> 0:45:28.000
<v Speaker 3>and I feel like I feel like a lot of

0:45:28.040 --> 0:45:30.080
<v Speaker 3>that is sort of creeping into the financial system.

0:45:30.280 --> 0:45:30.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:45:30.480 --> 0:45:31.640
<v Speaker 3>I mean, look our daily lives.

0:45:31.719 --> 0:45:33.960
<v Speaker 2>People bet on the coin flip of the super Bowl. Yeah,

0:45:34.000 --> 0:45:36.040
<v Speaker 2>I know, why even have the super Bowl at that

0:45:36.120 --> 0:45:38.240
<v Speaker 2>point if people are they're just betting out a coin flip.

0:45:38.239 --> 0:45:40.839
<v Speaker 2>The super Bowl is kind of an irrelevancy where if

0:45:40.840 --> 0:45:43.000
<v Speaker 2>people are inclined to bet on the coin flip, I

0:45:43.040 --> 0:45:45.640
<v Speaker 2>don't know if like people will bet on a coin flip,

0:45:45.640 --> 0:45:48.680
<v Speaker 2>but it's not like that much. It's basically like betting

0:45:48.760 --> 0:45:51.560
<v Speaker 2>on red or black, which people do, which people do online,

0:45:51.760 --> 0:45:54.040
<v Speaker 2>which is really depressing. Actually, the most depressing thing I've

0:45:54.080 --> 0:45:57.600
<v Speaker 2>ever seen on the gambling front was I was in

0:45:57.680 --> 0:45:59.840
<v Speaker 2>Iceland and I think.

0:45:59.719 --> 0:46:01.560
<v Speaker 3>They have this do you think of Iceland as like

0:46:01.560 --> 0:46:02.440
<v Speaker 3>a hub of gambling.

0:46:02.480 --> 0:46:05.600
<v Speaker 2>But go on, like I was looking for stuff to

0:46:06.120 --> 0:46:08.960
<v Speaker 2>watch on TV in my hotel room, and they had

0:46:09.080 --> 0:46:11.920
<v Speaker 2>a stream or they had a video of like this

0:46:12.120 --> 0:46:15.480
<v Speaker 2>like video casino where they had like an attractive woman

0:46:15.560 --> 0:46:18.680
<v Speaker 2>dealer dealing cards and that people could phone in their bets,

0:46:19.280 --> 0:46:23.080
<v Speaker 2>so like recreate kind of this casino ish thing. But

0:46:23.280 --> 0:46:25.200
<v Speaker 2>like it seems like that's we're going. And then the

0:46:25.200 --> 0:46:28.760
<v Speaker 2>other thing too, is that, as I mentioned, like whether

0:46:28.800 --> 0:46:32.880
<v Speaker 2>it's like technological arbitrage or regulatory arbitrage, every type of

0:46:32.920 --> 0:46:36.600
<v Speaker 2>bet can be turned into done with any type of instrument.

0:46:36.719 --> 0:46:39.399
<v Speaker 2>You can replicate stock and options with futures. You can

0:46:39.480 --> 0:46:42.960
<v Speaker 2>do sports betting in the form of prediction markets. You

0:46:43.000 --> 0:46:45.520
<v Speaker 2>can then take prediction markets who've already seen this. You

0:46:45.520 --> 0:46:48.840
<v Speaker 2>could take prediction markets and bundle them into ETFs, and

0:46:48.920 --> 0:46:51.640
<v Speaker 2>so you could have buy an ETF that is a

0:46:51.680 --> 0:46:55.360
<v Speaker 2>series of long democrat in the senate markets, et cetera.

0:46:55.600 --> 0:46:58.080
<v Speaker 2>And so everything could be wrapped in every other sort

0:46:58.080 --> 0:47:01.600
<v Speaker 2>of wrapper, and every thing is just sort of seemingly

0:47:01.680 --> 0:47:05.120
<v Speaker 2>once you find the right rapper kind of allowed within

0:47:05.239 --> 0:47:09.000
<v Speaker 2>our current sort of like regulatory framework and honestly, even

0:47:09.040 --> 0:47:11.160
<v Speaker 2>if it's not allowed, you do it offshore with crypto

0:47:11.160 --> 0:47:13.239
<v Speaker 2>et cetera. And so there's almost no way to sort

0:47:13.280 --> 0:47:15.440
<v Speaker 2>of stop this, stop this progression.

0:47:15.640 --> 0:47:17.520
<v Speaker 3>But the other thing I've been thinking of is, you know,

0:47:17.560 --> 0:47:20.360
<v Speaker 3>we used to hear markets described as you know, there

0:47:20.400 --> 0:47:24.040
<v Speaker 3>were upsides to capitalism, right, like you're supposed to be

0:47:24.400 --> 0:47:27.239
<v Speaker 3>efficiently allocating money. I don't think there's some pretty good

0:47:27.239 --> 0:47:29.680
<v Speaker 3>epete of course, of course, but like that used to

0:47:29.760 --> 0:47:32.920
<v Speaker 3>be the thing, right, And now you see more and

0:47:32.920 --> 0:47:35.839
<v Speaker 3>more money that's kind of being diverted away from like well,

0:47:35.840 --> 0:47:38.439
<v Speaker 3>this is just going to fund company. Yeah, well we're

0:47:38.480 --> 0:47:41.160
<v Speaker 3>just going to bet on the line in the company

0:47:41.400 --> 0:47:44.800
<v Speaker 3>going up, or you know, some other real world outcome

0:47:44.960 --> 0:47:47.840
<v Speaker 3>or whatever. Here's what it is. We were talking about

0:47:47.840 --> 0:47:49.640
<v Speaker 3>this the other day. But like it actually feels like

0:47:49.640 --> 0:47:51.440
<v Speaker 3>if you think about the nineteen eighties, you had that

0:47:51.520 --> 0:47:54.839
<v Speaker 3>greed as good shift, right, right, and even that was controversial,

0:47:55.200 --> 0:47:57.279
<v Speaker 3>And now you fast forward to twenty twenty six, and

0:47:57.320 --> 0:48:01.279
<v Speaker 3>it feels like morality doesn't even like necesscessarily enter into it.

0:48:01.320 --> 0:48:05.200
<v Speaker 3>Everyone is just like so resigned to this idea that like, well,

0:48:05.200 --> 0:48:06.959
<v Speaker 3>of course people are going to try to make money

0:48:06.960 --> 0:48:09.400
<v Speaker 3>of course we're going to just bet on random things

0:48:09.440 --> 0:48:10.080
<v Speaker 3>to try to win.

0:48:10.480 --> 0:48:14.759
<v Speaker 2>Everyone just accepts that, like securing the bag is the thing.

0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:17.440
<v Speaker 2>One other thing I do worry about is like I

0:48:17.480 --> 0:48:21.200
<v Speaker 2>think American capital markets are good in part because we

0:48:21.280 --> 0:48:25.040
<v Speaker 2>really do have excellent disclosure, and you know, from time

0:48:25.080 --> 0:48:27.680
<v Speaker 2>to time you hear about it's like an accounting scandal. Yeah,

0:48:27.680 --> 0:48:29.759
<v Speaker 2>but they're rare, like and they're a lot rare. I

0:48:29.760 --> 0:48:32.319
<v Speaker 2>think anyone who looks in any other market around the

0:48:32.360 --> 0:48:37.360
<v Speaker 2>world would find them way more frequent, and market manipulation

0:48:37.480 --> 0:48:39.880
<v Speaker 2>would find it way more frequent in other markets outside

0:48:39.880 --> 0:48:42.480
<v Speaker 2>the US, because we have this very good regulatory regime

0:48:42.640 --> 0:48:46.120
<v Speaker 2>and expectations and the SEC mostly does this job very well,

0:48:46.200 --> 0:48:49.720
<v Speaker 2>and it's going to increasingly sort of like be taken

0:48:49.800 --> 0:48:53.440
<v Speaker 2>over by tradable instruments for which investors really do not

0:48:53.480 --> 0:48:55.600
<v Speaker 2>have the same level of information at all. And the

0:48:55.640 --> 0:48:58.040
<v Speaker 2>expectation that an investor would like to be able to

0:48:58.080 --> 0:49:00.279
<v Speaker 2>know the share count of a thing they're buying, be

0:49:00.280 --> 0:49:02.080
<v Speaker 2>able to know the earnings of the margins of the

0:49:02.080 --> 0:49:04.759
<v Speaker 2>thing they're buying, like that's going away, and we might

0:49:04.880 --> 0:49:09.680
<v Speaker 2>regret like having so much traded without as much transparency

0:49:09.880 --> 0:49:10.919
<v Speaker 2>at some point down the line.

0:49:10.960 --> 0:49:13.160
<v Speaker 3>No. Absolutely, Actually, this is a good reminder. I wanted

0:49:13.200 --> 0:49:15.720
<v Speaker 3>to call back to two episodes. So on that note,

0:49:15.760 --> 0:49:18.880
<v Speaker 3>we did that really good episode about private credit in

0:49:18.920 --> 0:49:22.160
<v Speaker 3>particular kind of turning the economy into a black hole. Yeah,

0:49:23.120 --> 0:49:25.600
<v Speaker 3>I think that's really good. You know, obviously it's focused

0:49:25.600 --> 0:49:27.879
<v Speaker 3>on credit, but you can extrapolate to more and more

0:49:27.920 --> 0:49:31.560
<v Speaker 3>companies just going private in general. And then secondly, Vlad

0:49:31.560 --> 0:49:34.279
<v Speaker 3>mentioned he's really into aliens. We got to get Paul

0:49:34.360 --> 0:49:37.080
<v Speaker 3>Krugman back on to talk about aliens.

0:49:37.120 --> 0:49:37.520
<v Speaker 2>Let's do it.

0:49:37.560 --> 0:49:39.840
<v Speaker 3>But in the meantime, there is an existing episode that

0:49:39.880 --> 0:49:42.359
<v Speaker 3>people should check out anyway. Shall we leave it there?

0:49:42.440 --> 0:49:43.080
<v Speaker 2>Let's leave it there.

0:49:43.160 --> 0:49:45.400
<v Speaker 3>This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

0:49:45.440 --> 0:49:48.480
<v Speaker 3>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

0:49:48.200 --> 0:49:50.880
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

0:49:51.000 --> 0:49:53.799
<v Speaker 2>Follow our guest Blood Teneve at Vlood Teneve, follow our

0:49:53.840 --> 0:49:57.600
<v Speaker 2>producers Kermen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot,

0:49:57.600 --> 0:49:59.759
<v Speaker 2>and kill Brooks at Kile Brooks. And for more odd

0:49:59.800 --> 0:50:02.239
<v Speaker 2>law content, go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots

0:50:02.280 --> 0:50:04.640
<v Speaker 2>with a daily newsletter and all of our episodes and

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<v Speaker 3>If you enjoy odd Lots, if you want us to

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