1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing into spect I'm saying 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 3: it's a catch touchdown that we. 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 4: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 4: to wind. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 3: That's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: I like to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabak you want to 10 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 3: pat and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, 11 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 3: presented by Fan Duel. I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen. Today's 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 3: episode super Bowl fifty seven Best Bets, our last best 13 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 3: Bets episode of the season. Everyone take a second. There 14 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 3: you go, joining us the usual crew, Brandon Anderson, Joe Glant, 15 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 3: Luke swayn Aka Vegas refund a lot to get to 16 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 3: on the show, of course, the best bet. That's some 17 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 3: super Bowl info, some trends to keep in mind. But 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 3: first we turn to our friend, our director of research 19 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 3: at Action Network, Evan Abrams. He takes a quick look 20 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 3: at how the game lines and prop markets have shifted 21 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 3: since openers dropped at Fandel Evan take it. 22 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 2: Away, thanks guys. Okay, late super Bowl week time to 23 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 2: talk about line moves. So with the spread it opened 24 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: at Casey minus one and a half at Fandel currently 25 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: about Philly minus one and a half. And then when 26 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 2: you look at the over under opened it about forty 27 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 2: eight and a half, was literally there for just a 28 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: few minutes, then moved to forty nine and a half. 29 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 2: Now we're sitting at fifty and a half. Let's talk 30 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 2: anytime touchdown markets. Travis Kelcey leads the way. He opened 31 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: it about minus one twenty and is currently down to 32 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 2: minus one fourteen. Okay, let's focus on the quarterback props now. 33 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts his passing yards opened to two forty one 34 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: and a half now currently down to about two thirty 35 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: eight two thirty eight and a half. What's adjusted the 36 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 2: most is his rushing When you look at the alternatives, 37 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: ninety plus eighty plus seventy plus for his rushing yards 38 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 2: all been cut ninety plus eight eighty to plus seven 39 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 2: hundred eighty plus plus six thirty plus four thirty seventy 40 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 2: plus plus three ninety plus two eighty. On the other side, 41 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 2: with Patrick Mahomes, his passing yards prop through the roof 42 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: open to two seventy five and a half now up 43 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 2: to two ninety two and a half. And when you 44 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 2: look at all of his alternates for passing yards same story, 45 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 2: three hundred and fifty yards or more plus four hundred 46 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: to plus three twenty and so on and so forth. 47 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 2: When we start to look at pass catchers in the 48 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 2: Super Bowl, let's look at a stock up and stock down. 49 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,639 Speaker 2: So stock up Dallas Goddard. His receiving yards open to 50 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: forty six and a half now forty nine and a half, 51 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 2: and his seventy plus eighty plus ninety plus one hundred 52 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 2: plus ladders are all down on the KC side. Juju 53 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,519 Speaker 2: Smith Schuster opened to thirty three and a half yards 54 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 2: Now he's at thirty eight and a half. Kadarius Tony 55 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 2: twenty two and a half receiving yards now he's up 56 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 2: to twenty four and a half. And DeVonta Smith he's 57 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 2: seen his ladders eighty plus ninety plus and one hundred 58 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 2: plus all actually get longer, with his one hundred plus 59 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 2: moving from plus three sixty to plus four to ten 60 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 2: plus four to twenty range. Let's take a look at 61 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: the running backs, and this is where you've kind of 62 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: seen the most movement so far. Let's start with Miles Sanders. 63 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: He opened at fifty three and a half rushing yards 64 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: now up to sixty one and a half. And he's 65 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 2: seen his ladders one hundred plus, ninety plus and eighty 66 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 2: plus all get cut. As an example, his ninety plus 67 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: was plus four fifty, now down to plus two eighty. 68 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: On the other side, stock down Isaiah Pacheco. He opened 69 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: a fifty four and a half rushing yards now all 70 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 2: the way down to forty six and a half, and 71 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 2: his one hundred plus ladder opened a plus six p 72 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: eighty now up to plus eight eighty. And on the 73 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 2: defensive side, the real big movement I saw in the 74 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 2: numbers Hassan Reddick. His two plus sacks opened a plus 75 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 2: six hundred now down to plus four ninety, and his 76 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: MVP market on the move as well. So Reddit getting 77 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 2: a lot of action at the moment. Okay, guys, and finally, 78 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,279 Speaker 2: let's look at some special markets they have at fandel. 79 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 2: Here are the four that have moved the most. So 80 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: Travis kelce to have twenty five plus receiving yards in 81 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 2: each half opened plus one ten now all the way 82 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 2: up to minus one forty five miles Sanders same type 83 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 2: of situation, twenty five plus rushing yards in each half 84 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 2: opened at plus two ten now plus one forty five. 85 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: The other prop that's seen its odds drop each team 86 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 2: to score one plus touchdown and one plus field goal 87 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: in each half opened at plus two thirty now plus 88 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: one seventy. On the other side, Isaiah Pacheco twenty five 89 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 2: plus rushing yards in each half has moved from plus 90 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 2: two to sixty all the way up to plus three eighty. 91 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 3: That's it. 92 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 2: That's a wrap. Enjoy Sunday, Enjoy the Super Bowl. Let's 93 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 2: catch some tickets. 94 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 3: Evan. We look forward to it. Thank you very much. 95 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 3: As always, great stuff. Now, before we jump into the picks, 96 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 3: some info for you folks at home. Of course, we 97 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 3: have fifty six Super Bowls in the books. Forty seven 98 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 3: seven and two is the spread record for Super Bowl winners, 99 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 3: So forty seven of the fifty six winners have covered 100 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 3: the spread or one outright. As an underdog. Favorites thirty 101 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 3: six and twenty straight up, twenty seven, twenty seven and 102 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 3: two against the spread in the Big Game, overs slightly 103 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 3: under five hundred, twenty six eight and one, and underdogs 104 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 3: are eight and seven straight up in the last fifteen 105 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 3: Super Bowls, including ten and five against the spread. Okay, 106 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 3: let's go to Brandon Anderson first, as we normally do. 107 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 3: First best bet for Super Bowl fifty seven. 108 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 5: Going with the Eagles, and let me tell you how 109 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 5: I'm doing it. I'm going to take the Eagles halftime 110 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 5: in Eagles full time at plus one sixty so they 111 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 5: can make the case for the Eagles first. I think 112 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 5: this game is only one in the trenches, and that 113 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 5: is how Philadelphia's won games all season long. I think 114 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,239 Speaker 5: it's how they do it here on the defensive line. 115 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 5: You get a Sono Reddick, Jason Sweat, Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, 116 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 5: all eleven stacks or more in the regular season. I 117 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 5: think they can give Kansas City's offensive line some trouble. 118 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 5: Number one pressure rate, number one sack rate, eleven and 119 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 5: a half percent on pass plays. That's not just number 120 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 5: one this season, that's number one this entire century, and 121 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 5: it's further ahead of second place than second is from 122 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 5: twenty ninth. They've lapped the entire NFL in pressure rate 123 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 5: this season. Kansas City interior line pretty good. Those tackles 124 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 5: are a little shaky at times, and they haven't been 125 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 5: tested that much this season, only two games against a 126 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 5: top eight pressure team. So I think the Eagles can 127 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 5: get after Mahomes. We know Home still has that ankle 128 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,600 Speaker 5: thing that's going to probably prop up as the game 129 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 5: goes on more and more than On the other side, 130 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 5: Eagles offensive line the best offensive line in the league, 131 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 5: deepest line in the league, and it's all about the 132 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 5: run game. On that side, Eagles number one rushing DVAWA 133 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 5: number one by EPA, top of the league, and explosive runs. 134 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 5: Chiefs run defense is suspect. They're only twenty first in 135 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 5: rushing DVA defense, dead last and ESPN's run stop win rate. 136 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 5: And there's been a lot of talk this week, fairly so, 137 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 5: about well, the Eagles aren't very tested. They haven't really 138 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 5: been pushed by anyone. Well, the Chiefs haven't necessarily faced 139 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 5: that many more tests either. They've only faced two teams 140 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 5: with a positive rushing DVA. They lost both of those games, 141 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 5: ranked thirtieth defense on both of those and they only 142 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 5: faced four top thirteen offenses. So I think the Eagles 143 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 5: win in the trenches. They're the better team overall team 144 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 5: versus individual. So that's the case for the now why 145 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 5: halftime full time? So sixteen games this season, the Eagles 146 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 5: of one counting the postseason. Philadelphia is led at halftime 147 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 5: in fourteen of those sixteen games. That is how the 148 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 5: Eagles win in this game. If you want the script, 149 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 5: you want them to pass early, get the lead, and 150 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 5: then run the ball, run, run, run those twelve play 151 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 5: seventy eight yard eight minute drives. That's the script against 152 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes. Keep pat on the sideline. We don't want 153 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,599 Speaker 5: to come back. We don't want Jalen Hurts having to 154 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 5: come back against Mahomes. If you like the Eagles, it 155 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 5: has to be I think, because you like them early. 156 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,079 Speaker 5: So halftime, full time we get a plus one sixty. 157 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 5: That's a thirty eight percent implied money line. We're only 158 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 5: at fifty five percent. So basically, as long as as 159 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 5: long as the Eagles lead at halftime when they win, 160 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 5: then that's a better bet for us. If they do 161 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 5: that at least seventy percent of the time, and they've 162 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 5: done that eighty eight percent of their wins this year. 163 00:08:58,360 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 3: So I like the Eagles. 164 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 5: I'm gonna juice the odds a little bit by adding 165 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 5: in that halftime, give me Philly halftime full time plus 166 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 5: one sixty. 167 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 3: Teams who score first in the Super Bowl thirty seven 168 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 3: and nineteen straight up, So that is something that of 169 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 3: course we need the full thirty minutes, but getting off 170 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 3: to a good start scoring first, whatever that may be, 171 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:23,079 Speaker 3: is crucial to this particular play by Brandon. Let's move 172 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 3: on to Luke your first best bet super Bowl fifty seven, 173 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 3: Kansas City and Philadelphia. 174 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 2: What do you got? 175 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with Dallas. Goodair over forty nine 176 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards, a lot of angles over 177 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: the playoffs, have been attacking the Chiefs over the middle 178 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: of the field, which the Chiefs are third worst in 179 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 1: DVOA against the short pass. The middle of the field 180 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: a spot where the Chiefs really eliminate the explosive play, 181 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 1: and when Hurts is going to be passing, it's going 182 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: to be the short intermediate passes too good at where 183 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: in games that the Eagles have faced bottom five DVA 184 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: teams against the pas I went from fifty seven, seventy two, 185 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: forty six, and seventy eight. So he has been eating 186 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: the matchup advantages that they've had nine out of fourteen 187 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: games he's gone over the summer, and these are gonna 188 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: be the sharpest numbers that we have so like, I 189 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:15,839 Speaker 1: think I've sat on all of the pods. We have 190 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: twenty plus games of results to create these numbers based 191 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: off of so in terms of finding like an elite 192 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: edge there if you're not looking at the special props, 193 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: which good luck with that, Like, these numbers are going 194 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 1: to be sharp and at forty nine and a half, 195 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of the very few player 196 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 1: props that I will have a wager on. Too good 197 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: of a number in the matchup. 198 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 3: Okay, Joe Galot, you can find him on the Touchdown 199 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 3: Show every week he's been hot. Oh yeah, your rolling, 200 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 3: my man, what do you got? 201 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 1: Yeah? 202 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 4: Pressure creates diamonds, and I think we're gonna be looking 203 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 4: at Dallas Garter for a touchdown for a lot of 204 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 4: the same reasons that Luke mentioned. But I'm gonna double 205 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 4: down and just go a little bit deeper into that. Specifically, 206 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 4: because of Jalen Hurt's passing preference. He has looked for 207 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 4: Goddard early and often pretty much since the start of 208 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 4: when he became a starter at the start of last season. 209 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 4: So if you just look over the last two seasons, 210 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 4: eighty three first down catches by Dallas Godder to put 211 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 4: that in perspective, that's more than the first three seasons 212 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 4: combined that he had for seventy six first downs, and 213 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 4: had he played a full slate he only played twelve 214 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 4: games this year, he actually would have surpassed aj Brown 215 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 4: and Devonte Smith for total first downs. And as Luke mentioned, 216 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 4: tacking the slot is the key of what we target 217 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 4: when we bet against the Chiefs defense. We got Christian 218 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 4: Kirk when they played against the Jags, Tyler Boyd looked 219 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 4: great until he got hurt midway through that game, and 220 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 4: Goddard lines up exclusively in the slot. Chiefs have given 221 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 4: up the second most touchdowns to the slot this season. Also, 222 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 4: since coming off their buy in Week ten, the Chiefs 223 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 4: have given up at least one touchdown to the slot 224 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 4: in all but two games, and the two games that 225 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,719 Speaker 4: they didn't give up one was Week thirteen against the 226 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 4: Bengals and the AFC Championship game also against the Bengals. 227 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 4: Just something to consider here from a matchup standpoint, and 228 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 4: for what it's worth, when they played the Chiefs last 229 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 4: year in Week four at the link, he caught a 230 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 4: touchdown on them then as well so Dallas Goddard at 231 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 4: plus one seventy five is my best bet for the 232 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 4: Super Bowl. 233 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: All right, love it. 234 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 3: We'll see if he's got another one, another touchdown score 235 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 3: on the board later on. Let's go back to Brandon 236 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 3: and no surprise, you are remaining on those Eagles, but 237 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 3: in a different way I am. 238 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 5: I'm going to go back to one that we've talked 239 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,559 Speaker 5: about on past Best Bets episode. I'm gonna go with 240 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,559 Speaker 5: DeVante Smith super Bowl MVP. We've talked about that one 241 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 5: heading into the Giants game. We like that one at 242 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 5: plus seventy five hundred. Into the Niners game, we gave 243 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 5: that out again at plus five thousand. I'm still getting 244 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 5: a plus thirty one hundred. I still like it here. 245 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 5: So let me tackle this in two parts. First of all, 246 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 5: you need to know why the worst bet that you 247 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 5: can make in the Super Bowl is Jalen Hurts to 248 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 5: win MVP. Now, this, of course, is a quarterback award. 249 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 5: Usually only eleven of the last sixteen Super Bowl MVPs 250 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 5: have been quarterbacks. If you like the Chiefs, and I 251 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 5: don't blame you if you do, it's gotta be because 252 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 5: of Pat Mahomes. You should just bet Mahomes win MVP. 253 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 5: I think with a narrative baked in which it always 254 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 5: will be. On MVP, you're probably getting Mahomes win MVP 255 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 5: maybe ninety percent of Chiefs wins. I don't think that's 256 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 5: the case with Jalen Hurts. If you look at what 257 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 5: does a Hurts game look like, maybe one hundred and 258 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 5: ninety two hundred passing yards and a score ten carries, 259 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 5: forty rushing yards and a score that doesn't scream MVP 260 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 5: to me, That doesn't overwhelm me. He's not really a 261 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 5: big flash guy. Only two hundred and seventy five passing 262 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 5: yards so far in the playoffs. Well yeah, well that's 263 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 5: because they've been so far ahead they don't need to pass. 264 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 5: That's the point the script, if you want, I hate 265 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 5: to keep going with script the way that we've been 266 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 5: seeing that word this week. The formula, let's go there. 267 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 5: The formula of an Eagles win is not Jalen Hurts 268 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 5: having a huge passing game and having big stats. I 269 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 5: think the more stats Hurts has, the less likely the 270 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 5: Eagles are to win. So if you look at the numbers, 271 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,559 Speaker 5: Hurts is around plus one twenty five one thirty to 272 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 5: one MVP. If you do the math, he is doing 273 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 5: MVP about seventy eight percent of all Eagles wins by 274 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,559 Speaker 5: the money line to make that bet worth it, And 275 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 5: I think that is a ludicrous number. I think it 276 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,599 Speaker 5: hurts wins MVP and under half of Eagles wins. You 277 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 5: can bet field versus hurts MVP minus one seventy. That's 278 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 5: probably the right play here if I'm being honest. But 279 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 5: you know me, why play a minus one seventy when 280 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 5: I can play a plus thirty one hundred instead. So 281 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 5: Davante Smith, We've talked about him a lot. I lost 282 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 5: him money on DeVante Smith last game. Luke did the 283 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 5: game before. The man who's been robbing heround money. He 284 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 5: owes us money and he's gonna win it back. With 285 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 5: Super Bowl MVP. Chiefs are second to last GIVAA against 286 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 5: spide receiver ones. They are twenty six against receivers on 287 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 5: the right side of the field. That's where Davante lines up, 288 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 5: mostly AJ Brown. Usually on the left, The Chiefs are 289 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 5: six there. Davante Smith all but one of his touchdowns 290 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 5: of this year against man coverage. Chiefs are top ten 291 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 5: in man coverage. Didn't get much in that Niners game, 292 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 5: though he did lead all receivers in yardage. But before 293 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 5: that game, last seven game six and a half catches 294 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 5: per game, ninety three yards, five touchdowns. In those seven games, 295 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 5: two of the last four Super Bowl MVPs have been receivers. 296 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 5: And if it's not Hurts, I think it could be 297 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 5: more of a team, more of a balanced effort. Can 298 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 5: we get another highlight grab, get a score maybe two? 299 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 5: I think that DeVante Smith wins MVP maybe eight or 300 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 5: nine percent of the time plus thirty one hundred. That's 301 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 5: an implied three percent. We're getting half of Aja Brown's 302 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 5: price here, double the value for just as good of 303 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 5: a player, maybe better. Right now, this is my favorite 304 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 5: Super Bowl MVP pick. I gotta do it DeVante one 305 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 5: more time plus thirty one hundred. 306 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 3: Luke, what do you got for your second best bet? 307 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: So my second one which I really wanted to have, 308 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 1: one where I went through like the serial prop menu 309 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: and try to find a prop that we wouldn't be 310 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: able to bed in any other game. And the one 311 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: I came down to with individual Eagles players to score 312 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: a touchdown at over two and a half, which is 313 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: at minus one twenty right now. I went through all 314 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: of the box scores and I came up with out 315 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: of the all the games that Hurts played, which he 316 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: played in seventeen, when he included the playoffs, thirteen of seventeen, 317 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: at least three players scored a touchdown, which is seventy 318 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: six percent. And when you factor in the options that 319 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: they have to score a touchdown, where you have they're 320 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: rushing it, they have Hurts or Sanders who Sanders had 321 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: forty percent of the red zone carries, Hurts had thirty. 322 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: I mean, then you have the two other running backs 323 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: that usually come into play when the game gets out 324 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: of hand, where let's just say each of them get 325 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: one and then one of the receivers between or one 326 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: of the receivers between aj DeVante and Goddard get a touchdown. 327 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: That's three, and purely based off this podcast, you've already 328 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: got two touchdowns locked in, so we just need three. 329 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: One more of this plethora of talent that they have 330 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: to score where it almost feels too good to be true, 331 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: like one of those easy ones right two and a half, 332 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: It's like, oh my god, like this total set of 333 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: fifty one, how can three touchdowns not be scored the Eagles? 334 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: But I'm just gonna go with it. There's just too 335 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: many options in a game with a total like this. 336 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: Brandon even mentioned on Green Dot Daily how I think 337 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,400 Speaker 1: it was like thirty three percent of the Super Bowl 338 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: games there's been a defensive touchdown. Who we even have that? 339 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: So at over two and a half. If you go 340 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 1: to Fandel, you go to the scoring options, you scroll down, 341 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: it's buried individual players on the Eagles to score a touchdown. 342 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 3: And I love this one. 343 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 5: The only thing is I'm angry that I did not 344 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 5: find this one first. I had not seen this one yet, 345 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 5: and man, I love this bet. 346 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 3: This pick supports Brandon's argument of why Jalen Hurts is 347 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 3: not a good MVP pick because this highlights with a 348 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 3: minus one twenty number, it's going to be a mixed 349 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 3: bag as it pertains to guys who score. Okay, you 350 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 3: mentioned touchdown scores. Let's go back to the man himself, 351 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 3: Jill Gallant, second pick please. 352 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, So first touchdown is obviously a still pretty popular markets. 353 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are going to betting 354 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 4: on first touchdown for this game if they don't normally do, 355 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 4: just because it's the Super Bowl and everybody likes to 356 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 4: have some action. But I want to reduce some of 357 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 4: the volatility on that. So I think it was actually 358 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 4: smarter if we look at a first team touchdown score, 359 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 4: and I think we should look at the first Chiefs 360 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 4: touchdown score, and that's when you want to bet on 361 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey. You can get it at plus three ten 362 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 4: right now. So when you go through the season of 363 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 4: the Eagles defense, six of eighteen games they allowed a 364 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 4: touchdown to a tight end as the first touchdown in 365 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 4: the game. Now, I will say I bet the rules 366 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 4: a little bit because Taysom Hill was technically one of them. 367 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 4: But I mean, you ask Sean Kerner. He's listed as 368 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 4: a tight end. So I'm including it as part of 369 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 4: this trend. Now, if you go through the entire season 370 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 4: and playoffs, Kelsey has scored the first Chiefs touchdown in 371 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 4: eight of nineteen games. Obviously, he led all tight ends 372 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 4: with touchdown catches with fifteen. He's got at least one 373 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 4: touchdown in five straight playoff games, did have the Chiefs 374 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,679 Speaker 4: first touchdown catch in both playoff games versus the Jags 375 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 4: and the Bengals. And from an odds standpoint, I feel 376 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 4: like we're getting a little bit of value here because 377 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 4: Generally during the season, his odds were around plus two 378 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 4: to fifty to plus two forty. In fifteen of seventeen 379 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 4: games this season, they were plus two to fifty or lower. 380 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 4: So if you're gonna bet on Kelsey to score a touchdown, 381 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 4: I think it's much more sound to take a swing 382 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 4: on him to score the first Chiefs touchdown than taking 383 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 4: an anytime touchdown at minus one twenty. So Travis Kelce 384 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 4: is going to score the first Chiefs touchdown, and. 385 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 3: That is what he did against the Bengals last week 386 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 3: Jaggs and the Jags. Jags was the first drive of 387 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 3: the game, well, first offensive drive for Kansas City and 388 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 3: the Bengals. It took some time, there was some kicking 389 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 3: early in that game. 390 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 4: And I'm not saying you can't get value on him 391 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 4: at first touchdown at plus seven to fifty plus seven hundred. 392 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 4: It's around that range. But my issue is is just 393 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,639 Speaker 4: with this being the Super Bowl, is just so volatile. 394 00:19:58,320 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 4: I would just like to cut down some of the 395 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 4: at risk, especially if I'm going to betting this kind 396 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 4: of market. So I think that's the safer play and 397 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 4: the fact that you're still getting in a little bit 398 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 4: more projected value. I think that's the way to go. 399 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 3: And it's hard to sink your teeth or feel confident 400 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 3: in what else they have at receiver. And because of 401 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 3: what's the status of those players, Hardman's out of course. 402 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 3: But and as Evan mapped out, totals for Tony going up, 403 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 3: Juju number going up as far as yards. So it 404 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 3: feels encouraging. And Andy Reid is on record this week 405 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 3: that while not one hundred percent the quarterbacks on one 406 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 3: hundred percent guys that are active or on the active roster, 407 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 3: we're in uh, we're participating in practice. 408 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 4: Well did you see the incentive for Juju that he 409 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 4: has to play over fifty percent of snaps and the 410 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 4: Chiefs win, he gets a million dollar incentive, so you 411 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 4: know that he's definitely going to be playing at least 412 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 4: half the game. 413 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 3: Uh huh, that's right, that's right. That gets buried. We 414 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 3: almost forget about those right after the regular season. Nope, 415 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 3: there's a little bit more added to it when you're 416 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 3: a playoff team. Okay, good to know. Last round of picks, Brandon, 417 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 3: start us off. 418 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 5: What you got, Well, I got to get out on 419 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 5: the anytime touchdown fun it's the Super Bowl. You got 420 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 5: to go down the menu a little bit and have 421 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 5: a little fun here. So I'm gonna grab an anytime 422 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 5: touchdown score, but I get half of the guys on 423 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 5: the team. I'm taken because rather than taking a long player, 424 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,360 Speaker 5: give me Philadelphia defense plus seven to fifty for anytime 425 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 5: touchdown score. So here's the case. And this surprised me. 426 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 5: We did anytime touchdown draft at Action Network. So I 427 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 5: did a little extra research on this, more than I 428 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 5: usually do and normally just do whatever Jill says. I 429 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 5: don't have any anytime touchdown picks. 430 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: Here's what I found. 431 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 5: If you think back through super Bowls, if you remember 432 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 5: how Super Bowls are ending, there's a lot of times 433 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 5: that do you think through that that oh one teams ahead, 434 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 5: the team trailing is pushing, pushing, and then there's that 435 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 5: backbreaking pick six, that backbreaking fumble recovery into the end zone. 436 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 5: Touchdowns by the defense happen a lot in the Super Bowl. 437 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,360 Speaker 5: So here are the numbers. Fifty six super bowls, we've 438 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 5: had twenty one defensive touchdowns. That is a thirty eight 439 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 5: percent chance of touchdown by the defense in the Super Bowl. 440 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 5: At least one touchdown almost won every three Super Bowls 441 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 5: and twenty one touchdowns by the defense, twenty of them 442 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 5: have them scored by the winning team all but one 443 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 5: of them. So, whoever you like to win the Super Bowl, 444 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 5: you need to bet that team to have any time 445 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 5: touchdown by the defense. Both defenses are aggressive, both teams 446 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 5: are aggressive. Here we talked earlier about that Philadelphia pressure 447 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 5: in the last thirty Super bowls. If you just say, okay, 448 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 5: well what about more recently, how does that look? Last 449 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 5: thirty Super Bowls? Fifteen touchdowns by the defenses? That is 450 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 5: won every two Super Bowls. So if you look at 451 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,159 Speaker 5: the trend, the trend says these are happening. 452 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 3: I don't really know why. 453 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: To be honest. 454 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 5: Is it because we just have better defenses? It's the 455 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 5: Super Bowl? Maybe is it the extra week to prepare. 456 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 5: Maybe you keet in on a tendency or jumped a 457 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 5: route that could be it? Is it just this is 458 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 5: the go for broke. I don't know what the reason is. 459 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 5: I just know what the numbers say. At FanDuel. You 460 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 5: can just play plus three hundred for any defensive touchdown 461 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 5: if you want to stay away from picking which side, 462 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 5: all right, you know me I like to go for 463 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 5: the big wins. So give me Philadelphia plus seven to fifty, 464 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 5: and if you'll like, if you go a little further 465 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 5: down into the props there for plus three thousand, thirty 466 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 5: to one, you can bet on any defender to score 467 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 5: a touchdown and any defender to win MVP. Doesn't even 468 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 5: have to be the same guy that's happened in for 469 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 5: the last twenty two Super bowls. I promise you those 470 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 5: are correlated events. If the defense scores and the Eagles 471 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 5: are kind of spread the wealth like we're talking about, 472 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 5: defenders are in the play for MVP there for the 473 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 5: last twenty two is eighteen percent thirty to one. Odds 474 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,239 Speaker 5: is more like three percent. So look, the numbers say 475 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,479 Speaker 5: we're probably gonna lose the bet, but the numbers are 476 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 5: heavily in our favor. That this is how you get 477 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 5: a bet. You gotta have a little fun with Super Bowl. 478 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 5: Manage your banker a little friendly uts our last time 479 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 5: for the year. So Philly Defense anytime touchdown plus down 480 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 5: to fifty. 481 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 3: It's a good read at Action network dot com. Super 482 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 3: Bowl player props Chiefs Eagles anytime touchdown. Draft Jill actually 483 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 3: picked after Brandon in the first round, he got Dallas 484 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 3: Goddard after Brandon took Jalen Hurt second. Raybahn got Kelsey first, 485 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 3: and then in the second round they flipped snake draft 486 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 3: Brandon went ahead and took the defense instead of aj Brown. 487 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: And with that one where I'm a vicious YouTuber late 488 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: night and actually last night I was watching where's this 489 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: going the all time greatest plays in the Superbral history? 490 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: The amounting defensive interceptions for touchdowns. It was just like 491 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: play after player, like that's not statistical, that's just I'm 492 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 1: going to be betting this too. Where quarterbacks and the 493 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 1: Super Bowl have thrown interceptions sixty four percent above their 494 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: season average. The Playkong is more conservative, where they're going 495 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 1: to try and pin them within their own red zone. 496 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 1: Normally in the Super Bowl, where these intersect options are 497 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: happening above expectation in the other team's territory. Like, yeah, 498 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet this. Wee get off. 499 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 4: Second and two, get into the outside and it is 500 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 4: intercepted by Dwyke Smith, the nickelback, and he gets by 501 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 4: Gannon and goes in for the touchdown. 502 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 3: Third and eighteen, and. 503 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: This is gonna write a finish Derek Brooks who went 504 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: back three interceptions for touchdowns in the regular season. Does 505 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 1: it to cement the Super Bowl? 506 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 3: Maybe I'm going to start youtubing stuff late night before 507 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 3: i go make it all. 508 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: So my third one is going to be Patrick Mahomes 509 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 1: over two hundred and ninety two and a half yards passing. 510 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,640 Speaker 1: Was this one on Fandel? This number is a lot 511 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: better realized it for the market where I think on 512 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 1: a couple other books it's at like two ninety seven 513 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: at this point. But this is gonna be one where 514 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: Mahomes is number one in EPA per dropback going against 515 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,400 Speaker 1: an Eagles defense where the common narrative that you've heard 516 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,639 Speaker 1: on every media landscape is the Eagles have not faced anyone, 517 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: which is getting mushed. But it is true they have 518 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: only faced two top They only faced two top two 519 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: quarterbacks in terms of terms of EPA per dropback. We 520 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: have the Dome, we have warm weather. It's just a 521 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 1: It's a team that has the greatest quarterback on the 522 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: planet who passes at an above average rate in a 523 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: game that we don't know is health that if it isn't, 524 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: if it's worse than we're expecting should be passing even more. 525 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that closes like comparison in terms 526 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,399 Speaker 1: of who the Chiefs have faced relations with Eagles defense 527 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,360 Speaker 1: this year would probably be the Broncos, and he threw 528 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: for three hundred and twenty eight yards in that game, 529 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: So I think the attempts was the over. Mahomes attempts 530 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 1: was actually what I wanted first when I was digging 531 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: through these earlier in the week, and that has just 532 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: gotten out of range and I think it was at 533 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 1: like thirty six and now it's at thirty nine and 534 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: a half, and wow, that's a pass for me, where 535 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,880 Speaker 1: like I believe, is going to be passing above expectations 536 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 1: in terms of attempts, which very well leads to overyards. 537 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 1: So at two ninety two on FANDO, that's a steel 538 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: relative of the market. It's really hard to argue with 539 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:11,959 Speaker 1: this one. 540 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 5: With Tom Mahlmes, I looked at an alternate over because 541 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 5: you know, it's what I do, three hundred and twenty 542 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 5: five passing yards in playoff games. Mahomes has done that 543 00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 5: three of the last five and for the last seven 544 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 5: playoff games at three twenty five, so you can get that. 545 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 3: Obviously. 546 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 5: I think that's closer to plus two hundred, but obviously 547 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 5: if you get three twenty five, you're going away over 548 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 5: the two ninety two, So that's more credence to that 549 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 5: in the playoffs. 550 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,479 Speaker 3: I freaking love this game. I really do. Uh. By 551 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 3: the way, there is a rushing yard total for Mahomes 552 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,360 Speaker 3: this week. We didn't have one much of the week 553 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 3: in Cincinnati. It's at nineteen and a half. 554 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 1: Nineteen and a half. The last couple of games it's 555 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 1: been at like that. He hasn't been injured, been like 556 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen yep, right, nineteen and a half. I don't 557 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 1: know if that implies health, but that is a lot 558 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 1: higher than I thought. 559 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 3: I was gonna take Jill, take us home. 560 00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: What do you got? 561 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, So my last pick is going to probably correlate 562 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 4: with what Brandon has just mentioned and also with what 563 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 4: Luke has mentioned. And I'm going to take Patrick Mahomes 564 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 4: to actually throw an interception at minus one twenty and 565 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,200 Speaker 4: so two Super Bowls in his career, he's thrown two 566 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 4: interceptions in both of those games. And really his turnover 567 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 4: issues really started at the beginning of last season, in 568 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,439 Speaker 4: the twenty twenty one season, and when those picked up, 569 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 4: so he had twenty five interceptions in thirty nine games 570 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 4: if you include the playoffs since the start of last year, 571 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 4: and twenty one interceptions in thirty nine of those games, 572 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 4: So that's around fifty three percent of the time. But 573 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 4: in that same stretch, so if you think the Eagles 574 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 4: are going to win, the Chiefs have lost nine total 575 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 4: games in that stretch since the start of last year. 576 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 4: When they lose, he has thrown an interception in seven 577 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 4: of those games. So that's usually kind of the script 578 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 4: of how the Chiefs lose is there's a little bit 579 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 4: of turnover issues. Now the Eagles, they were third in 580 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 4: total interceptions with seventeen this year, first in sacks. I 581 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 4: think the sacks is important because if you're going to 582 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 4: get more pressure, that's going to make quicker decisions, likely 583 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 4: increasing over probability. They also forced an interception in twelve 584 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 4: of the twenty games that they played this season, so 585 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 4: fifty eight percent if you include the playoffs. So if 586 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 4: I think, if you believe that the Eagles are going 587 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 4: to win the Super Bowl, you may as well just 588 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 4: bet on Mahomes interception because when the Chiefs lose, turnovers 589 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 4: are typically involved. And also if you're into the Illuminati 590 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 4: numerology side of things. He has fifty six career interceptions 591 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 4: and he's playing in Super Bowl fifty seven. 592 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: There's something wrong with you? Did we just give out 593 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 1: numerology walk. 594 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 3: And his defense that was brought to his attention. 595 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 4: So yeah, and the Twitter follower dm me that he's like, 596 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 4: did you know? And I was like, I responded with 597 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 4: like ten head explosion emojis of just like what the hell? 598 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 4: Like who would even have thought to lick that up? 599 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 4: But yeah, that's the angle walk On that. 600 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 3: Note, why don't you go YouTube some stuff in the meantime. 601 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: Well, I do want to say thank you the three 602 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 1: of you. This is the first time I've done a 603 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: podcast in the media. I was nervous. I just want 604 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 1: to thank three of you because you made this very easy. Yeah, 605 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 1: contractually oil too, the three of you for next year. 606 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 3: Well that was really nice of you. Thanks Luke. It 607 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,239 Speaker 3: was a fun year. Now, if out of these picks hit, 608 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 3: I'm I'm out your friends anymore. So how's that coming? 609 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 3: We got to wrap up the show and I gotta 610 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 3: tell you what else is coming up, But first we 611 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 3: got to recap the picks. So Brandon Anderson for Super 612 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 3: Bowl fifty seven is on Philadelphia halftime full time plus 613 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 3: one sixty. He has DeVante Smith as his MVP at 614 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 3: plus thirty one hundred Philadelphia defense anytime touchdown at plus 615 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 3: seven fifty. Luke is on Dallas Goddard over forty nine 616 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,520 Speaker 3: and a half receiving yards. You can get that at 617 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 3: minus one ten at FanDuel individual Eagles to score a touchdown, 618 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 3: So three Eagle touchdowns by three different Eagles over two 619 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 3: and a half at minus one twenty, and he's on 620 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 3: the Patrick Mahomes passing yards over and Joe Gallant likes 621 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 3: Goddard touchdown at plus one seventy five, Kelsey first Kansas 622 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 3: City touchdown at plus three thirty and Patrick Mahomes to 623 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 3: throw an interception at minus one twenty. That'll do it. 624 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 3: Here in the Action Network podcast for our Super Bowl 625 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 3: fifty seven Best Bets episode presented by Fandel. If you 626 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 3: missed the full betting preview with Raybond and Stuckey or 627 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 3: the Propapalooza episode with Raybon and Sean Kerner, both are 628 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 3: out now. Don't forget to download the free award winning 629 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 3: Action Network app to see all of the picks, and 630 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 3: you can also track your own. I should also mention 631 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 3: returning on Friday, our UFC betting previews are back with 632 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast, so you have that to look 633 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 3: forward to as well. A huge thank you to the 634 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 3: three of these guys, Joe Glot, Brandon Anderson, Luke Swain, 635 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 3: excellent job all season long. Thank you to you the 636 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 3: listener for joining us all year. We hope we were helpful. 637 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 3: We hope we were constructive and made you a better 638 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 3: NFL better throughout the course of the season. That's the 639 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 3: goal here, and we hope you had some fun along 640 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 3: the way as well. We will return on Monday for 641 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 3: one final Super Bowl recap episode for the season. Until then, 642 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 3: we wish you all the very best to block on 643 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 3: all of your bets this weekend for Super Bowl fifty seven, 644 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 3: and we'll see you all here next time on the 645 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast, presented vandele. 646 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 647 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 648 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 649 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 4: hundred Gambler