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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. Every Pitch is Your Pitch,

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Speaker 2: the greatest show on dirk Way God.

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Speaker 1: So now they can add college baseball to their trophy case.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm your

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Speaker 1: host Mike Calberys, and I'm joined by the Action Networks

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Speaker 1: college baseball expert Colin Wilson to break down the ongoing

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Speaker 1: conference tournaments that are taking place across the country. We're

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Speaker 1: also going to peer around the corner and look ahead

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Speaker 1: to who we're going to consider playing in next week's regionals.

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Speaker 1: But before we get into that, of course, the tournament

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Speaker 1: committee has to pick the field. They have to reveal

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Speaker 1: it on Monday, So just a bit of table setting here.

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Speaker 1: On Monday at noon Eastern e ESPN two, we're going

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Speaker 1: to finally see who's playing where in terms of the regionals,

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Speaker 1: and as it stands right now, we feel pretty confident

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Speaker 1: that six teams are going to be in line to

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Speaker 1: both host a regional and then be in line to

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Speaker 1: host a super regional thing and get out of there.

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Speaker 1: Those teams would be Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Georgia

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Speaker 1: LSU and Vanderbilt. That leaves work to be done though.

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Speaker 1: For those other two teams, you'll get a team like

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Speaker 1: Auburn who is going to play A and M and

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Speaker 1: Hoover on Thursday morning. You also have the Oregon Ducks,

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Speaker 1: who absolutely one percent need to win the Big Ten

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Speaker 1: tournament to secure themselves a super regional seed. And then

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Speaker 1: from there, you know, things start to get interesting in

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Speaker 1: terms of a team like Florida State. Could they use

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Speaker 1: an ACC tournament championship to grab one of those final

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Speaker 1: slots and impress the committee. But setting aside, you know

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Speaker 1: what those teams can do just purely by winning. You

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Speaker 1: have some other teams who, you know, they can't go

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Speaker 1: back and fix their schedule. They can't go in a

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Speaker 1: time machine and all of a sudden schedule more aggressively

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Speaker 1: in the non conference, I'm looking at programs like Coastal

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Speaker 1: or a team like Oregon State who's now sitting on

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Speaker 1: the sideline as an independent waiting for this bracket to

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Speaker 1: come out. What are you seeing in terms of potential

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Speaker 1: seeding shuffling happening here in the late hours before the

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Speaker 1: Monday official bracket comes out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we're recording this late on a Wednesday

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Speaker 2: night and Coastal won their game today. They're going to

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Speaker 2: play again on Thursday, and I think that's good for

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Speaker 2: them because the last that we saw them absolutely projected

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Speaker 2: as a number one seed creeping in on the top eight,

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Speaker 2: and that is really bad news for organ when you

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Speaker 2: look at this list of teams that are vying for

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Speaker 2: that eighth spot, right we're looking at Oregon, Oregon State.

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Speaker 2: Oregon State doesn't have to play this weekend. They went

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Speaker 2: independent this year, they don't have a conference championship. Their

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Speaker 2: RPI speaks for themselves. We've talked about this all year.

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Speaker 2: The reason you take a future on Oregon State is

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Speaker 2: because their season was essentially over and everybody else has

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Speaker 2: to play, and now Oregon has everything to lose. Coastal

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Speaker 2: Carolina gets that nice little soft Sun Belt tournament schedule.

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Speaker 2: They're going to keep on playing and that really helps

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Speaker 2: their case. It could build their RPI, it could hurt

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Speaker 2: their RPI, depending on who they play. Florida State has

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Speaker 2: to make a run here. Florida State actually is one

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Speaker 2: of the teams that I think that we're going to

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Speaker 2: throw in the Texas category, a team that we have

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Speaker 2: kind of been fading in the big spots, especially if

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Speaker 2: North Carolina is able to pop up and grab them.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of teams that could lose here, but

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Speaker 2: the teams that really need to win, and keep your

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Speaker 2: eye on Oregon, Florida State, and if Coastal wins the Sunbelt,

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Speaker 2: they can hop both of those guys and be a

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Speaker 2: potential super regional seed, which would be really big. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure if you want to go to Conway and

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Speaker 2: you want to play over there next to the surf

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Speaker 2: turf that we love to talk about in college football,

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Speaker 2: but lots to lose here and especially organ I will

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Speaker 2: say this, and we're going to talk about part factors later.

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Speaker 2: Keep your eyes on what Oregon and UCLA do in

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Speaker 2: Charles Schwab in Omaha because if they run the table

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Speaker 2: and they make it through regionals and supers, they're going

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Speaker 2: to have a familiar environment of playing there. Again, think

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Speaker 2: of Michigan in twenty nineteen. They knew how to slap

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Speaker 2: that ball around that field. They were very comfortable playing

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Speaker 2: in Omaha. And that is the advantage of playing in

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten when it.

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Speaker 1: Comes to conference tournaments and their weight with the committee

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Speaker 1: in particular, College baseball doesn't necessarily follow the same formula

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Speaker 1: that college football and college basketball do. It obviously, with

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Speaker 1: football much smaller sample size in terms of games, so

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Speaker 1: obviously there's an advantage there, and the auto bid and

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Speaker 1: the bye to the quarterfinals, et cetera, et cetera. Basketball,

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Speaker 1: sometimes depending on how the committee's feeling year to year.

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Speaker 1: We've seen the Kentucky Wildcats get hosted, they go on

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Speaker 1: a run in the SEC tournament, but apparently that year

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter to the NCAA committee. And there's other years

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Speaker 1: where a team gets hot and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: that's all that matters in their eyes. But historically early

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Speaker 1: exits aren't necessarily significant in terms of seating outside of

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Speaker 1: those supers, but just in terms of you know, a team,

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Speaker 1: you know essentially needing a win so to speak, you know,

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Speaker 1: one win or a single loss or an early loss

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Speaker 1: could bounce them like Florida last year. I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of casuals assume they weren't even going to make

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Speaker 1: the tournament because they got bounced right away. And over

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Speaker 1: am I seeing this right? Am I thinking about it

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Speaker 1: in the right way? That the committee doesn't put all

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Speaker 1: that much weight on single elimination games.

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Speaker 2: In college BASEBA they put zero on it, and they

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Speaker 2: put so much weight on the RPI. I think probably

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Speaker 2: three years ago they put all of their weight on

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Speaker 2: the RPI. But things have changed over the last couple

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Speaker 2: of years. They've actually kind of adopted a sort of

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Speaker 2: what college basketball does looking at a quad one, quad

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Speaker 2: two record. That has now become a little bit more

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Speaker 2: important from the college baseball perspective. But sadly, you know,

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Speaker 2: in college basketball, you could be an East Coast team

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Speaker 2: and get shoved out in the West regional just because

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Speaker 2: you're the fourth best one, number one seed. Well that's

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Speaker 2: not how it works in college baseball. College baseball, the

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Speaker 2: committee that makes the selection heavily emphasizes RPI, but they

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Speaker 2: also really love regionals to be across the map. They

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Speaker 2: want to give Oregon in Oregon State a super regional seed.

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Speaker 2: They want Coastal Carolina to host. They want West Coast

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Speaker 2: teams like UCLA to have the chance to showcase the

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Speaker 2: product at eleven o'clock at night when all of us

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Speaker 2: have been betting run run lines and totals all day.

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Speaker 2: They very much are geographically bound and RPI fuels a

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Speaker 2: lot of that, and they hide behind the RPI, but

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Speaker 2: they're starting to include Quad one and Quad two records.

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Speaker 2: So keep that in mind when you're trying to find

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Speaker 2: out who that number eight seed is going to, because

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Speaker 2: that's important for supers. When you're trying to find out

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Speaker 2: who's going to be a regional host, keep in mind

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Speaker 2: that a team like TCU, who I think we last

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Speaker 2: saw on the field of sixty four, come in at

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Speaker 2: number fifteen, that's a number one seed. Do I think

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Speaker 2: they deserve to be Hell no, I would take all

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Speaker 2: fourteen teams out of the sixteen and the SEC they're

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Speaker 2: going to make it over TCU. But the you know,

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Speaker 2: the committee is very conscious of the fact that the

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Speaker 2: Big twelve is going to need a team up there,

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Speaker 2: the fact that the state of Texas is going to

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Speaker 2: need a team hosting. They like California teams, they like

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Speaker 2: Oregon teams. They want it to be a complete United

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Speaker 2: States map. You mentioned park factors. Now, as we transition

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Speaker 2: into some chatter about the SEC tournament, if you're tuning

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Speaker 2: in for the very first time, what can you expect

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Speaker 2: in terms of what Hoover brings to the table in

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Speaker 2: terms of either facilitating more offense or suppressing runs. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think you know, when you do park factors in MLB,

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Speaker 2: it's really important to know what parks are good for singles,

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Speaker 2: what are good for doubles, What are pitcher parks? Right?

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Speaker 2: I mean the old Oakland A's was so spacious and

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Speaker 2: foul territory at the coliseum, the O dot CO or

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Speaker 2: whatever you want to call it, you know it was

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Speaker 2: a haven for pitchers. Coors has always been a bandbox

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Speaker 2: for runs, and the same thing goes with college baseball.

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Speaker 2: So how do you find that out? Well, right now,

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Speaker 2: the a SEC tournament is playing in the Durham Bulls

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Speaker 2: Athletic Park. If you go and pull the minor league stats,

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Speaker 2: that is a park factors of one point two that

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Speaker 2: is well above. What that means is twenty percent higher

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Speaker 2: number of runs than the average ballpark at their level.

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Speaker 2: So you expect runs in the ACC to be a

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Speaker 2: little bit inflated, which we've kind of seen in some

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Speaker 2: of their scores so far. The exact opposite is true

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Speaker 2: for the Hoover Metropolitan Complex, where the SEC always plays

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Speaker 2: their tournament. They come in a zero point eighty five.

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Speaker 2: And why that's important is because that actually matches where

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Speaker 2: the Big ten is playing, which was in Charles Schwab.

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Speaker 2: They are zero point eight five in the park factors.

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Speaker 2: Don't get it twisted. You're going to see super regional

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Speaker 2: numbers come in. Totals will be anywhere from eleven to fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Oddsmakers have to adjust once we get to Omaha, Charles Schwab,

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Speaker 2: the old TDA zero point eight five means you're gonna

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Speaker 2: get some pitchure duels in there. I know we saw

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Speaker 2: a lot of offense with Tennessee and Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M last year. We had jas Lavoolette, we had Jack Caggs,

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Speaker 2: we had some monster hitters come through there. But remember

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Speaker 2: there is wind that blows thirty miles an hour straight

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Speaker 2: in from Charles Schwab, and that's a big factor in Omaha.

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Speaker 2: But keep in mind Omaha is a pitchers park where

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Speaker 2: the big tennis playing right now, Pittriress Park, Hoover for

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Speaker 2: the SEC looking for unders. Acc we're in Durham, we're

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Speaker 2: looking for overs.

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Speaker 1: We've been burning the midnight oil here at almost one

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Speaker 1: am on the East coast, trying to get in as

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Speaker 1: many of these results from the SEC to be able

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Speaker 1: to plug into your spreadsheet get these projections. But let's

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Speaker 1: talk about some that are already set. We got Tennessee

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Speaker 1: and Texas on Thursday. Liam Doyle, you have them going

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Speaker 1: off at about minus two oh five as a favorite

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Speaker 1: favorite against Ruger Riojas. The total that you've set there too.

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Speaker 1: I was glad that I nailed at Riojas. You know,

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Speaker 1: welcome to the Super Conference era. Basically, I want to

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Speaker 1: bring this up because, hey, they're both in the SEC.

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Speaker 1: Did they play this year? Nope, So there's very little

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Speaker 1: data to be able to see how these two teams

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Speaker 1: are going to match up. But let's start with the

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Speaker 1: Horns real quick. They reached number one in the country.

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Speaker 1: We warned, you know, our listeners that they were potentially

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Speaker 1: a paper tiger, but then they closed three and six

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Speaker 1: against SEC opponents. They were swept by Arkansas, they lost

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Speaker 1: two out of three to Florida. Tennessee meanwhile, lost four

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Speaker 1: straight SEC series to close out the season, but they

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Speaker 1: did blast Alabama that pre square in the SEC fifteen

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Speaker 1: to ten on Wednesday afternoon. Of these two struggling teams,

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Speaker 1: where you put in your money on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: I'm not putting it on Texas, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I hate to bag on them every single podcast we do,

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Speaker 2: but maybe this is the first time that you've listened

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Speaker 2: to US. Texas from a pitching staff perspective, is completely

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Speaker 2: overrated when you have an er that's more than one

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Speaker 2: and a half lower than what your ex FIP is

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Speaker 2: believe in you. Let's remember Ruger y Jas was the

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Speaker 2: Sunday guy until Jared Spencer got hurt. This is a

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Speaker 2: pitching staff that has lost, you know, their Friday night starter.

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Speaker 2: So we have not seen good things out of Ruger

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Speaker 2: y Jas since he's made that move to Friday. Liam Doyle,

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Speaker 2: on the other hand, one of the best pitchers in

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Speaker 2: the nation. I don't really discredit him for allowing Arkansas

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Speaker 2: in their home building to tag him for what six

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Speaker 2: to eight runs. I mean, Arkansas could do that to

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Speaker 2: anybody in their own building. So I'm definitely favoring Tennessee

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Speaker 2: here over Texas. I do make it minus two oh five,

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Speaker 2: but this is one of those things where if it

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Speaker 2: comes in at minus two forty, I'll a minus two

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Speaker 2: and a half on Tennessee. I think motivation is a

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Speaker 2: bigger thing for Tony Vittello. You lose that series in Fayetteville.

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Speaker 2: That doesn't sit well with him. Personally, and he knows

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Speaker 2: that if he wants to lock up a regional host seed,

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Speaker 2: this is a really important SEC tournament. I would say

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Speaker 2: the motivation is definitely there. D One Baseball projected Tennessee

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Speaker 2: as the best overall number two seed, right behind number

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Speaker 2: one seeds Georgia, Tech, TCU, Southern Miss and UC. Tennessee

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Speaker 2: needs a couple wins here Texas. Maybe they're feel a

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Speaker 2: little bit comfortable with where their spot is. They're a

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Speaker 2: super regional host. We will be fading them in regionals.

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Speaker 2: Just as a spoiler alert for everybody.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of needing wins, do you think Auburn a statistical

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Speaker 1: Analytical Darling number two in the RPI, did they need

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Speaker 1: a win from Camp Tilly on the bump on Thursday

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Speaker 1: morning to be able to secure that super regional seed.

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Speaker 2: They don't need it as much as Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M does. We should all know that Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M is on the outside looking in. I believe they

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Speaker 2: are labeled as the first four out. Prager gets the

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Speaker 2: win for them here. They're moving on to Thursday. We

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Speaker 2: believe it's going to be Western Moss or Justin Lambkin.

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Speaker 2: Spoiler alert. The Aggies will be about minus one ten

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Speaker 2: or should be about minus one ten both sides, Texas

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Speaker 2: A and M and Auburn going up against each other.

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Speaker 2: Cam Tilly versus Western Moss or Cam Tilly versus Justin

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Speaker 2: Lambkin should be lined at about minus one ten both

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Speaker 2: sides total of about ten point eight. This is going

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Speaker 2: to be a dogfight. Auburn needs this win to secure

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Speaker 2: a super Texas A and M needs this for their

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Speaker 2: postseason lungs to still be included. So that is going

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Speaker 2: to be high drama. I think, what first thing in

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Speaker 2: the morning, it's going to be a good show.

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Speaker 1: The other matchup that I mentioned Vanderbilt three in the RPI.

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Speaker 1: They got JD. Thompson on the bump, going off at

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Speaker 1: about a minus one fifty favorite over Oklahoma's Kid Crosslin's

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Speaker 1: No Kis and Witherspoon. He did his work, he got

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Speaker 1: through that Georgia you know lineup. They end up getting

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Speaker 1: that one run win, A tough one for Georgia, not

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Speaker 1: exactly the momentum that they wanted going into regionals next week.

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Speaker 1: But speaking just about the commodoors here, do you think

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Speaker 1: this is a must win for them to secure that

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Speaker 1: super regional seed, and if so, is Thompson the right

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Speaker 1: guy to get it done.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a conversation you and I were having

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Speaker 2: before we clicked on the podcast. I think D one

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Speaker 2: Baseball has them listed as like the number three overall

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Speaker 2: number one seed, and I think Baseball America puts them

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Speaker 2: down in territory where they might not be a super

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Speaker 2: regional host. So what is your idea about what Vanderbilt

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Speaker 2: baseball has been? Well, have been excellent from a pitching

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Speaker 2: staff perspective over the last month. Their hitting is coming along.

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Speaker 2: Not as good as Mississippi State's hitting. We'll talk about

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Speaker 2: that later, but you know, Vanderbilt is coming along. I

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Speaker 2: think if they want to secure their super regional seed,

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Speaker 2: they definitely need to get this win here against Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: I think it's beneficial for the Commodores that they missed

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Speaker 2: Kaisa Weatherspoon. They should be about minus one fifty with JD.

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Speaker 2: Thompson on the mound against Cape Crossland, a total of

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Speaker 2: about ten. You know, I think the Commodore is the

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Speaker 2: team that I would back here. I think Corbin knows

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Speaker 2: that you get a win here, you pretty much solidified

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Speaker 2: your spot as a super regional team.

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Speaker 1: Let's transition over to the ACC quickly in terms of

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Speaker 1: the storylines going on. Let's start with the fact, what

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Speaker 1: the hell is happening with Cal? I know, the calgorithm

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Speaker 1: infected college football for there about three weeks there. There's

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Speaker 1: the College Game Day. They almost beat cam Ward in

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Speaker 1: the Miami Hurricanes. It was fun, you know, everybody was

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Speaker 1: playing up the Soviet Communism side on Twitter. It was

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Speaker 1: an enjoyable, frivolous story in college But all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: they've gone from one of the worst teams in the

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Speaker 1: ACC to just going nuts. They've scored twenty six runs

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Speaker 1: in two games, and now they get their shot against

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Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. However, they were swept during the regular season

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Speaker 1: by the Yellow Jackets, and they were beat badly in

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Speaker 1: those three games. So this is the end of the line.

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Speaker 2: Right, yeah, this is it for them. I mean Cal

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Speaker 2: has been performing well over their skis here. By the way,

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Speaker 2: you know, we love Cal football. Shout out to Bsurklely,

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Speaker 2: shout out to Jade Not by the way, if you

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Speaker 2: are a member of the Action Network plan and we

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Speaker 2: put some win totals in on college football this week,

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma Sooner is to the over if you guys are

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Speaker 2: following Jade, not our old Cal running back is now

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Speaker 2: playing for the Sooners. Just a little veer off there

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Speaker 2: for college football for everybody. But yeah, I think Cal

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Speaker 2: is probably going to be in over their skis here.

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Speaker 2: I think what's amazing is the very first podcast we

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Speaker 2: had Calibres on the college baseball season. We love Georgia Tech,

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Speaker 2: and I think they came out and what got swept

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Speaker 2: that weekend after we took a future on them. Well,

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Speaker 2: now here they are in position to be a number

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Speaker 2: one seed and to be a regional host a. Georgia

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Speaker 2: Tech is projected to be the highest run total of

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Speaker 2: any other ACC game on Thursday. I project them Logan

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Speaker 2: piper Tate McKee to go about seventeen point three runs.

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Speaker 2: We'll see how that wind is blowing. You can go

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Speaker 2: on my Twitter timeline, you see, I've got a link

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Speaker 2: in there. They'll show everybody sides totals and wind factors

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Speaker 2: and the Durham Bulls Athletic Park that wind will be

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Speaker 2: blowing out. So I see Georgia Tech minus three hundred.

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Speaker 2: I don't see a problem for them hitting, but Cal

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Speaker 2: will contribute. The sticks are alive and We'll see if

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Speaker 2: they can rumble here, but I definitely like the over

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Speaker 2: in the game.

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Speaker 1: Das Dania to the boys from Berkeley. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go on to the quarterfinal matchups in the ACC that

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Speaker 1: are teaming with intrigue, NC State, Clempson, Florida State, Duke.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the Seminoles and Blue Devils. FSU could

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Speaker 1: secure a top eight seed if they win this thing.

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Speaker 1: But now it gets interesting in terms of how they

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Speaker 1: manage their rotation, because you got to win all of

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Speaker 1: these games, not just two out of three. So do

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Speaker 1: they go with Arnold here against Duka? They save them

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Speaker 1: for the semies. Joey Vlinny, the huge lefty, has not

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Speaker 1: looked great lately. Using him now later. It doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: like there's a simple answer for this. You know, this manager,

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Speaker 1: this program, and they're in a spot that so much

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Speaker 1: can change when you get to play on your home

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Speaker 1: diamond all the way through super Regionals. So with everything

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Speaker 1: at stake, what do you think they're going to do? Well?

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Speaker 2: You know, Florida State's hitting. The hitting should have been

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Speaker 2: there when Jamie Arnold was playing like he was. Paul Skeens,

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Speaker 2: that was last year. That isn't happening anymore. Jamie Arnold

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Speaker 2: has shown through x FIP and through some of the

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Speaker 2: big games that he's had this season that he just

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Speaker 2: hasn't been able to stay long in games, and he

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Speaker 2: hasn't been able to keep runners from scoring. I think

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Speaker 2: that's going to be a little bit of a problem here,

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Speaker 2: and Duke could probably move on. They pitched Henry's at

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Speaker 2: Kowski today their third starter in the rotation. They saved

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Speaker 2: Owen Procish for this game against Florida State. You know,

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Speaker 2: Duke has the ability to show up in surprise, especially

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Speaker 2: from a sticks perspective. We'll see how Jamie Arnold does.

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying this is Texas level regression. I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying this is Texas level fade. I am not a

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Speaker 2: believer that Florida State is going to be good enough

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Speaker 2: from a pitching perspective, especially from the total staff outside

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Speaker 2: of Jamie Arnold, to say that they can win the

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Speaker 2: College World Series. I line this one about minus went

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Speaker 2: into minus one fifteen in favor of Jamie Arnold. Not

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Speaker 2: that big of a favorite here against Duke. I do

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Speaker 2: think there's going to be seventeen runs in the game.

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Speaker 2: Florida State can hit. I think Duke could show up

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Speaker 2: and do the same against Jamie Arnold.

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Speaker 1: As for the other matchup Clemson NC State, in terms

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Speaker 1: of your pitching projection, Drew Titsworth for Clemson FRENCY State

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Speaker 1: sending Ryan Moron to the hill. He's clearly the better starter.

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Speaker 1: But Clemson has the advantage if this gets into the

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Speaker 1: lead innings with the lead because they have mouse Stead

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and close the door there. What are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts in this game that's also set with a

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Speaker 1: total at fourteen.

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Speaker 2: And a half. Yeah, I mean you look at Aiden Cannock.

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Speaker 2: They got him to go today and you know they

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Speaker 2: move on. Is that enough for them to secure the

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Speaker 2: position that they're in right now? I think it just

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Speaker 2: their coach is one of the best managers in all

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Speaker 2: of ACC. So you can't discount Clemson any kind of

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Speaker 2: format whatsoever. But when you look at this, Rhyan Marhone

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Speaker 2: has a much better x FIP than say, Drew Titsworth,

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Speaker 2: And then when you look at it from a staff perspective,

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Speaker 2: also a better ex FIP in favor of NC State

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Speaker 2: over Clemson. So I wouldn't want to say that Clemson

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Speaker 2: shot their wild with Aiden Kinnock. But and they do

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Speaker 2: have the best closer probably in all of college baseball,

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Speaker 2: who could come in at any time. But I think

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Speaker 2: the question is how bad does Clemson want this game?

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Speaker 2: Do they feel comfortable with their position and the seting

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Speaker 2: that they're in, which right now I believe they're kind

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Speaker 2: of in that dead zone of twelve, so they're definitely

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Speaker 2: a regional host. I don't think they have any shot

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Speaker 2: in the world even if they win, acc to jump

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Speaker 2: up to number eight and get ahead of Oregon or

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Speaker 2: Oregon State or even Coastal if Coastal keeps winning. So

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Speaker 2: I think Clemson maybe one of those teams that could

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Speaker 2: decide at some point I want to set my rotation

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Speaker 2: for in host regional. We'll see, but I definitely would

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Speaker 2: not want to take them here on a Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Underdog is one of the best places to make picks

405
00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 1: during playoff basketball, and while they score buckets, could score cash.

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Speaker 1: apply void. In Colorado, concerned with your play, called one

432
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or visit NCP Gambling dot Org. In

433
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: Arizona call one eight hundred next step or texts next

434
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 1: step to five three three four two. In New York

435
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 1: called the twenty four to seven hopeline at one eight

436
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 1: seven seven eight hope and why or text hope and why.

437
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 1: All right, we mentioned it at the top in terms

438
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 1: of park factors, the Big Ten playing in Omaha. It

439
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 1: kind of gives a leg up potentially for a team

440
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: like UCLA or Oregon, but they're playing with this Mickey

441
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 1: mouse pool bullshit. I don't know how else to say it.

442
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 1: I try to figure out on a yearly basis. You know,

443
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 1: when we first started doing this year's back, there were

444
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,160
Speaker 1: some conferences that gave out the auto bid to their

445
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,959
Speaker 1: conference tournament champion, some for the regular season. Now, at

446
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 1: least we're all on the same page there. Everybody gets

447
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,159
Speaker 1: the auto bid at least if you can win your

448
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 1: conference tournament. But then the Big Ten goes to pool play.

449
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 1: Why why are they doing this to me and making

450
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,719
Speaker 1: things complicated for us as we try to project not

451
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 1: only who teams are gonna play. But how this whole

452
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 1: thing can shake out in the Big Ten. Well, I

453
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: give the.

454
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 2: SEC some credit for going to a one and done format.

455
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 2: I think it's something that they've always wanted to do.

456
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: But at the same time, you're putting teams like Texas

457
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 2: A and M on the firing squad, in front of

458
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: the firing squad and saying, you lose a game, you're out.

459
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 2: You're not in.

460
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be playing.

461
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 2: In the postseason if you lose a one game. Dare

462
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 2: I say the Big Ten kind of pussified that whole

463
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,679
Speaker 2: thing and said, now we're gonna go pool play. You

464
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: don't exactly have to win every single game. You don't

465
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 2: exactly have to throw your best guys all the way.

466
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 2: We're gonna try to make our teams look as good

467
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 2: as possible and make sure we send the teams that

468
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 2: we want to send to regionals. And I feel like

469
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 2: that's what the Big Ten is doing here. They don't

470
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 2: really have a shot to get anybody outside of say

471
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: USC UCLA, you know, organ into this thing. I think

472
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,719
Speaker 2: the most important thing is looking at who potentially is

473
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 2: on the bubble here, and when you look at that

474
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 2: right now, the two teams that are leading in the

475
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: first four out are Michigan and Iowa, so pool play

476
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 2: helps the Big ten and the fact that Michigan and

477
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 2: Iowa are the first two teams that are listed in

478
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: the first four out per D one Baseball, Well, if

479
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 2: they're in pool play and they lose a game, they

480
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 2: can still come back. When they're pools. They could do

481
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 2: a little round, Robert, they could extend their play for

482
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 2: the season a little bit and maybe that'll improve their RPIs.

483
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 2: Ur RPIs right now sitting respectively Michigan Iowa around fifty

484
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: six and sixty five. You definitely need to be top fifty.

485
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: You probably want to be top forty five, and you're

486
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 2: not going to get that unless you survive your pool

487
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 2: play and play a team like Oregon or UCLA, who

488
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 2: are sitting around RPIs of nineteenth and tenth respectively.

489
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: Oregon, who we've talked a lot about. Obviously, they need

490
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 1: to win to feel confident in getting that super regional

491
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: seed and who awaits them Michigan State and Nebraska in

492
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 1: pool play. Michigan State just stole one from the Ducks,

493
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: shutting out Oregon and ruining a gem from Grinsell just

494
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 1: at the beginning of May. Is an interesting team because

495
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: when you look under the hood, they have been really

496
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: feisty against quality opponents. They took two out of three

497
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: from Morgan State. They beat a nationally ranked Kansas team

498
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,199
Speaker 1: and a nationally ranked Vanderbilt team in one off games,

499
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 1: littered or sprinkled throughout their schedule. Any concerns about Puddle

500
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 1: the duck stepping on a land mine against Michigan State

501
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: and Nebraska, which absolutely would cost them a super regional seed.

502
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 2: So if you go by D one baseball, you would

503
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 2: see that the number eight overall seed would belong to

504
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 2: Oregon and the number nine overall seed would belong to

505
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 2: Oregon State. Do you look at Oregon's loss as a

506
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: way to knock them down? They swept Oregon State. That's

507
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: why I don't know this whole going, whole independent thing

508
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 2: for Oregon State could have its advantage in getting up

509
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: a bump up. Does the committee decide that number eight

510
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 2: is secure for Oregon when Coastal Carolina is downsweeping everybody

511
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 2: inside the Sun Belt Conference. Coastal Carolina right now sitting

512
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 2: at tenth, which means they're just two spots off from

513
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: being a super regional host. Does that mean we want

514
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: to buy a future I'm not so sure about that.

515
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: But when you look at Coastal's number, twelfth in the RPI,

516
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 2: not a good strength to schedule. But I mean if

517
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 2: they played the Big ten, it actually probably still would

518
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 2: be about seventy first in the nation. But the twelfth

519
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: in the RPI is going to be a real problem

520
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: for Organ here because if the committee considers that you

521
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 2: may see Oregon State as the host, and you may

522
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 2: see Coastal Caroline as the host, and you could see

523
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: Organ sitting at the nine or ten spot. It's not good. Well,

524
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 2: Organ needs to finish strong.

525
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 1: I've been waiting a long time for college baseball to

526
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: give me the eye candy that we get in college football.

527
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 1: We certainly get it in college basketball. Evan Mitkawa putting

528
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: out his kill shot. You know matrices, and he basically

529
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 1: has those charts in terms of offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency,

530
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: in terms of overall NBA talents. You can sice and

531
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 1: dice his stuff a million different ways, but it essentially

532
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 1: gives you that grid, and you want to be in

533
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 1: the top right portion of that grid. You're really good

534
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: on offense, you're really good on defense. We finally have it,

535
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: thanks to you over on your Twitter page you posted

536
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,479
Speaker 1: it's this combination of teams home runs per nine and

537
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: then a smattering of what they do in their pitching staff,

538
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 1: their ear right, their FIP and their ex FIP and

539
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 1: same concept. You want to be in the top right.

540
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: And when you look it starts to make sense right away.

541
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: You see Tennessee and Arkansas elevated. You see Georgia not

542
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: a great pitching staff, but just bombing the ball out

543
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 1: of the ballpark at the very top of the graph.

544
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 1: But what's interesting is there's some teams in here that

545
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: I was a little bullish on or I was a

546
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 1: little curious to see where they would fall. And I

547
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: want to walk through some of them and just talk

548
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,479
Speaker 1: about their potential to go on a run and then

549
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: visa vig what they are out in the futures market

550
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,959
Speaker 1: right now. So we're going to touch on six teams

551
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: really quickly here coastal Florida State. You see Irvine, Kansas, Iowa,

552
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: and we can talk Auburn. We already mentioned them earlier.

553
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: But in terms of breaking them down and looking at

554
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 1: this chart, obviously you have expectations you're living in the

555
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: spreadsheets throughout the entire season. But were any of these

556
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: stats a little bit surprising when you saw them populate

557
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: and where they landed on the graph.

558
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 2: They are. They absolutely are calibers. And let's talk about

559
00:25:58,560 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 2: that real quick, because I'm going to throw out a

560
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 2: team that we think is a super regional host, but

561
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 2: I'm going to give you a team that's right next

562
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 2: to them when it comes to staff average of e

563
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 2: er FIP and x FIP and home runs per nine.

564
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: How much pop do you have that can get you

565
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: out of, you know, any kind of deficit when you're

566
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: going to be playing in a pitcher's park. What kind

567
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 2: of staff average eer FIP and x FIP do you

568
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: have that's going to be able to shut down teams

569
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: and you know, not allow the runs come up against you.

570
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 2: I think these are the two most important stats. Fielding

571
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: percentage is a big deal, which is why you see

572
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 2: Tennessee leading this entire chart that'll be over on my

573
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 2: Twitter page at Underscore Calling one. But Tennessee leads everybody

574
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,719
Speaker 2: in this right quadrant. But at the same time, what

575
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,679
Speaker 2: you don't see is a fielding percentage of about one

576
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 2: hundred and seventieth. That's what got them in trouble against Arkansas. Arkansas,

577
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 2: on the other hand, leaky bullpen. But those two teams

578
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 2: are the ones that lead this entire quadrant in all

579
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: of college baseball. There's a reason why the futures on

580
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 2: these two teams have been so high that years because

581
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 2: they have that. But let me throw out a couple

582
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 2: of teams and you'll say, holy cow, actually closer to

583
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: this than they are a super regional host. We talked

584
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: about Florida State. They are barely above midpoint and home

585
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 2: runs per nine and staffyra PIP and x FIP. They

586
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: are more like Alabama than they are Arkansas or even

587
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 2: Mississippi State or even Southern miss And you wouldn't think that,

588
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 2: you would think Florida State is one of the best

589
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: teams in the nation. They're actually not Coastal Carolina a

590
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: Sun Belt team. You would think, eh, they're just a

591
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 2: Sun Belt team. They have a better pitching staff numbers

592
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: than Vanderbilt, and they're hitting it the exact same ray

593
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: from a homers per nine. So I think it's really

594
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 2: important to look at a team like maybe UC Irvine.

595
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 2: What are the ant Eaters doing out on the West coast,

596
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: and who can I generally compare them to. They're almost

597
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: a spitting image of Southern cal and NC State, So

598
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 2: I think that's a really good look for them. Jayhawks.

599
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: On the other hand, Listen, we don't talk a lot

600
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: of Big twelve baseball because Big twelve baseball doesn't win

601
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 2: in Omaha. But they are above average when it comes

602
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: into homers per nine. That's why we've taken a lot

603
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 2: of overs with them in BYU Baseball in the Big

604
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 2: twelve this year. But they more closely aligned with Duke

605
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 2: than they do anybody else, you know. So I think

606
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 2: it's important to know who these teams are, what kind

607
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: of profile they have. It's really important to pay attention

608
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: to fielding percentage, and that's where we come up with Iowa.

609
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: Is Iowa good enough with catober Miller and that staff

610
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 2: to make maybe, you know, slip into that field of

611
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 2: sixty four? They're right there on the bubble. I get

612
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 2: a little bit nervous about a fielding percentage of one

613
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 2: hundred and fourteenth. I get a little bit nervous about

614
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 2: homer's per nine being eighty second in the nation. You know,

615
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 2: their STAFFYRA top fifteen, their Whip top fifteen. They can pitch,

616
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 2: do they have enough hitting? I'm not sure can they field?

617
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: Out of all the teams we mentioned here, they have

618
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: the worst fielding percentage of the teams that we've mentioned.

619
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 2: You brought up Coastal. Their team a RA three point

620
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: three seven, very impressive, but their team x FIT five

621
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 2: point h three. And I think this is what's a

622
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: little bit more difficult in college baseball than Major League baseball.

623
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,959
Speaker 2: By the time you get to the postseason in the BIGS,

624
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: you get one hundred and sixty two games, there's going

625
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 2: to be ebbs and flows and hot streaks and slumps,

626
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: and it all basically evens out and you have a

627
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 2: real feel for who these teams are. Obviously there's roster

628
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 2: movement in season, at the trade deadline, YadA, YadA, YadA. Well,

629
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 2: when it comes to college baseball, sometimes you know in

630
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: terms of who you've really played, particularly when you're not

631
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 2: in a power conference.

632
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: Sometimes these numbers you can be a paper tiger. It

633
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: can be a Potempkin village set up, and then all

634
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: of a sudden you get to play these regionals and

635
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: you get exposed. Do you think they're closer to the

636
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: three point three to seven ear or the x FIP

637
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: that says they're probably going to get bounced by a

638
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: really good lineup.

639
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 2: I think they're closer to the X fifth that says

640
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 2: they're going to get bounced. I think if you have

641
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 2: a college baseball team that you love and they get

642
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 2: paired up here in the regionals, are in a super

643
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: regional path with Coastal Carolina, you're probably pretty happy. When

644
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: you have a Homer's per nine rank of one hundred

645
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: and sixty fifth, you're worse than Vanderbilt. And we've said

646
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: this about Vanderbilt all season. You're playing small ball on offense.

647
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: You're pitching is great, but you're playing small ball on offense,

648
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 2: and that's what Coastal Carolina has to do and that's

649
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: just not going to get it done. Do you think

650
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 2: that they're going to be able to just show up

651
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: and knock some things around against Anthony Jinsen of LSU.

652
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 2: I don't think so. You think they're gonna be able

653
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: to show up and hit you know Liam Doyle. Now,

654
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 2: of course I'm naming off some of the best teams

655
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 2: in the nation, but from the metrics we talk about

656
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 2: from Homer's per nine and average gra FIP and x FIP.

657
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,719
Speaker 2: They are light years behind a team like Southern Miss.

658
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 2: They are light years behind say a team like Florida

659
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 2: or Old Miss. Even ETSU is a team that I

660
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: would say offensively, I would much rather have the Coastal Carolina.

661
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: When you look at this chart, and I encourage everybody

662
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: to go over your Twitter at underscore Colin one to

663
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: be able to take a look at this with me.

664
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: Southern Miss really pops for me, and they're there and

665
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: we pulled up their odds ninety to one to win

666
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: the College World Series? Is that enough to incice you,

667
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: just some couch change throw it down on the Golden Eagles.

668
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: Do you think this is an opportunity for them to

669
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 1: get hot, because everything in terms of their analytics would

670
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: say that they deserve to be in the conversation with

671
00:30:58,360 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: some of these power programs.

672
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 2: I think absolutely yes. And the reason is you don't

673
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: take a ninety to one on Southern Miss because you

674
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: think they can win Omaha. You take a ninety to

675
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: one on Southern Miss because currently D one Baseball projects

676
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: them as the number fourteen overall seed. That makes them

677
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: a regional host. Inside of Hattiesburg, and that lines them

678
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 2: up perfectly to face the number three overall seed for

679
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: D one Baseball, which is Vanderbilt. That's when you hedge

680
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,239
Speaker 2: that ninety to one. Who does not want to take

681
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 2: a ninety to one into the final sixteen teams in

682
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: the nation and be able to get out of that.

683
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: Anybody would love to have a number like that. So

684
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 2: you know, you're not taking Southern miss ninety one because

685
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 2: you think they make it to Omaha, and you're definitely

686
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: not making a bet to say Southern mismakes Oma. You're

687
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: taking it ninety one because you're gonna hedge it, You're

688
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: gonna write it during regionals, you're gonna sell it during supers.

689
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: That'll do for tonight's episode. Thanks again for joining us

690
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: special thanks to my co host Colin Wilson and our sponsor,

691
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy. I'm your host, Mike Calbery's. We will return

692
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: next week for the longest episode of the year. We're

693
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: going to break down the entire break, every single regional matchup,

694
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: no stone left unturned, pitching matchups, projections, you know, every

695
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 1: single element that you've been waiting for for us to

696
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 1: just go absolutely bananas on and sometimes there's been time constraints,

697
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: and you know, we're not sure who the pitching matchups.

698
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: We are going to know, and we are going to

699
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 1: absolutely rake everything over the coals and make sure that

700
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: we have you in the best position possible to make

701
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: some money here during the NCAA tournament. So best of

702
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: luck with your teams that you're following the futures that

703
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: you have. We're all strapped in for Monday when the

704
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: bracket gets released, and then we're going to hit the

705
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: ground running at you with an episode at midweek so

706
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: that you have action really on as many games as

707
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: you want, because this is the best time of year

708
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: for Colin Wilson. I'm Mike Calvaries. Thanks so much for listening.

709
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time on the Big Bets on

710
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: Campus podcast. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if

711
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 1: you are some so when you care about has a

712
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at

713
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