WEBVTT - FOMC Backs Away from September Guidance Shift

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. So we got to set

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<v Speaker 1>this Business Week agenda, Carol, with these FED minutes, Yeah, totally,

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<v Speaker 1>And I gotta say I just opened them up off

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<v Speaker 1>the FED website, so we're all kind of reading in

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<v Speaker 1>real time at the same time. Here's one headline, FED

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<v Speaker 1>officials reviewing the policies trate to Dane July. Well, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's what they did. So looking back at it, let's

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<v Speaker 1>get into it with people who are far smarter than

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<v Speaker 1>me when it comes to the Fed. Kathleen Hayes is

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<v Speaker 1>with US Global Economics and Policy editor Bloomberg News. She's

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<v Speaker 1>on our access line. And Dave Wilson also on the

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<v Speaker 1>remote access. He's in New Jersey. He's our stocks editor.

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<v Speaker 1>But Kathleen, let's start with you. Like I said, we

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<v Speaker 1>all are opening this up at the same time in

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<v Speaker 1>real time. Let's just tell stumping out for you. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, this is you. They're usually about fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>or sixteen pages, you know, and and they're not necessarily

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot in there for anybody. So I know

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<v Speaker 1>our FED team in Washington is uh looking over very quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>They're saying refining the statement could help improve transparency. So

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<v Speaker 1>let's put this in perspective. They're reviewing their policy strategy

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<v Speaker 1>at the July meeting. Maybe if they refine the statement

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<v Speaker 1>itself can prove in transparency. Now, everybody who knows, and

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<v Speaker 1>if you don't, the policy statement is about five paragraphs.

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<v Speaker 1>It's kind of boilerplate. They use certain phrases to mean

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<v Speaker 1>certain things. They change a word here or there, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think it leaves a lot of people glad. Number one,

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<v Speaker 1>the FED chair J Powell comes out and explains what

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<v Speaker 1>they did and why and takes tons of questions from reporters.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, I think people feel, couldn't you

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<v Speaker 1>write something longer if you gave us more information about

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<v Speaker 1>what you're thinking and and how it may be something conditional.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you don't think you're going to raise interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates for a long time unless right, we don't see

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<v Speaker 1>it now, And maybe that's what they're referring to. And

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<v Speaker 1>I remember, of course they've had just almost a year

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<v Speaker 1>long policy review, the FED listening miss meetings all over

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<v Speaker 1>the country, and in September they are widely expected to

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<v Speaker 1>put put their their conclusions out. And one of the

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<v Speaker 1>other things I think we're gonna look for in the

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<v Speaker 1>minutes is anything they said about the inflation target and

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<v Speaker 1>moving from we're gonna keep it at two percent or

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<v Speaker 1>try to get it to two percent recently, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we get there, it's a ceiling and we stop. That's

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<v Speaker 1>what people have assumed, And there's a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>officials saying, no, what we're gonna say is two percent

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<v Speaker 1>is our target. But when we've been way below the

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<v Speaker 1>target for years, it's okay to go above for a

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<v Speaker 1>while to to get it kind of straightened out. The

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<v Speaker 1>question is how far above and how long above. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of thing. But there's the VET can't really

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<v Speaker 1>change his policy right now. Right virus is still there,

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<v Speaker 1>economy still weak. There's no reason for them to hint

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<v Speaker 1>at anything different. But I think these other questions that

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<v Speaker 1>people are waiting to hear more about it very important.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to say, in terms of um market reaction,

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<v Speaker 1>seems like from our our fed blog that we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>our live blog, not much reaction yet in the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>If I look at the equity markets, they're pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>where they were prior to the release of the minutes. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>They are pointing out that the long end of the

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<v Speaker 1>treasury market, those yields turning a little higher, thirty year

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<v Speaker 1>yield at a session peak of one point. But let's

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<v Speaker 1>let's tuck a bit about the equity trade. Dave Wilson

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<v Speaker 1>come on in on that. Well, you have the SMP

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<v Speaker 1>five near its highs of the day, but you haven't

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<v Speaker 1>seen a whole lot of movement. Uh three tents of

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<v Speaker 1>percent gain at most, and and we're approaching that at

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<v Speaker 1>this point. But really the story of the day is

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<v Speaker 1>Apple poking its head above two trillion dollars in market value.

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<v Speaker 1>First US company ever to do that. You know, Saudia

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<v Speaker 1>Ramco when they went public was just above two trillion

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<v Speaker 1>when the shares started trading. So that's perhaps the next milestone.

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<v Speaker 1>Four are Apple in terms of their evaluation that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Apple at least one big reason why you know, stocks

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<v Speaker 1>are moving up at this point. And then you can

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<v Speaker 1>point the target which had earnings out that we're pretty

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<v Speaker 1>well received and those shares up twelve percent leading to

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<v Speaker 1>SMP fire. Yeah. I do want to say the market though,

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<v Speaker 1>coming down a little bit. Yeah, just in the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of seconds, and it must be to somebody found

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<v Speaker 1>something they didn't like or you know, we're getting close

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<v Speaker 1>to the highs of the day, and of course you're

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<v Speaker 1>at record levels for the SMP five hundred above where

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<v Speaker 1>we were yesterday when we broke the February high. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's understandable perhaps people might want to pull

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<v Speaker 1>back a bit. And so, Kathleen, what is top of

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<v Speaker 1>mind for the Fed right now in this moment, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this is a little bit backward looking in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of you know, sort of figuring out what they

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<v Speaker 1>were thinking. We know that this is fast moving economically, medically,

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<v Speaker 1>all of these things. You're talking to people all the

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<v Speaker 1>time in and around the FED. What are they thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about right now? Well, they're thinking about the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>they have done things to support the economy that have helped,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, so support it. You know, there are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of businesses that have been able to stay on

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<v Speaker 1>there on their feet because the FED provided lots of liquidity.

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<v Speaker 1>They've done everything they can to stabilize markets, and they

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<v Speaker 1>every time somebody talks, sometimes whether they're asked or not,

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<v Speaker 1>they say, and we have done what we can do

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<v Speaker 1>with monetary policy. As J. Powell has said, the FED

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<v Speaker 1>can lend, but it cannot spend money. Right that goes

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<v Speaker 1>to Congress. That's where the action has to come next.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're probably watching these stalled stimulus talks as

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<v Speaker 1>much as anything else. They've got to be watching virus numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got a great chart on the Bloomberg it's virus hotspots.

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<v Speaker 1>The top line is the US and those numbers have

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<v Speaker 1>come way down compared to the peak in July six

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<v Speaker 1>less than half of the what they were seventy eight

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<v Speaker 1>thousand new cases being is a total where was then

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<v Speaker 1>our new ones daily whatever it was um and it's

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<v Speaker 1>down to half. It's in half and the Fed is

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<v Speaker 1>that all along? You want to determine what the economy does?

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<v Speaker 1>Watch the virus night. There was just a guest on

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<v Speaker 1>with David Weston from the Attorney General from North Carolina.

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<v Speaker 1>Wasn't it saying, you know, they sent their kids back

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<v Speaker 1>to school and now they got to send him home. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the kind of thing that you get, get a

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<v Speaker 1>little momentum going maybe and then it gets it gets

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<v Speaker 1>hobbled again. Yeah, all right, guys, thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Kathleen Hayes Apple, Bloomberg News, Global Economics and Policy Theater,

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Wilson, stocks Are, Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit about schools reopening, the medical

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<v Speaker 1>side of that, the social side of it. And it

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<v Speaker 1>is a complicated issue, Carol, because not everyone has the

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<v Speaker 1>same access to healthcare, not everyone has the same sort

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<v Speaker 1>of job. We have to worry about the most vulnerable

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<v Speaker 1>among us. And that's exactly what Dr Ramon Tilladge does.

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<v Speaker 1>He's the founder and chairman of some most community. Here

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<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from New York City. Dr Todge,

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<v Speaker 1>really nice to have you here with Carolin myself. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for you to help me with you. Please.

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<v Speaker 1>So we are talking so much about reopening schools, especially

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<v Speaker 1>in New York City. Is the world's the nations, excuse me,

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<v Speaker 1>the largest school system. What needs to happen for it

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<v Speaker 1>to be safe? Well, in order for me to be saved,

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<v Speaker 1>it should be a discussion between all the people, especially

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<v Speaker 1>the partents with the children's, the school teachers, the doctors,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously the authorities. Well, at this point, I don't see

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<v Speaker 1>that happen. We've been trying for that to happen, especially

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<v Speaker 1>as the doctor to talk and be part of the conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>But we been the one and the I say, in

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<v Speaker 1>the front of the battle from the beginnings as much

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<v Speaker 1>we've been doing this testing education, and I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>we're ready and to open the school because nothing has

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<v Speaker 1>changed as much. What do you mean nothing has changed

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<v Speaker 1>since March? Well, yeah, well let me ask you a question.

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<v Speaker 1>In March, why do we close the school? We've closer

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<v Speaker 1>because the bigger skill, there's no vaccine, there's no treatment

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<v Speaker 1>anything of those things have changed. I don't think so,

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<v Speaker 1>and so why So why then do you think people

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<v Speaker 1>are rushing so much to open schools? Is it an

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<v Speaker 1>economic question? Is it that? I mean, we talked about

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<v Speaker 1>this all the time, that people, you know, need their

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<v Speaker 1>kids to go back to school so that they can

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<v Speaker 1>continue to work. I know this is something you think

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<v Speaker 1>a lot about. So why why is the pressure there? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no one answer for when you dealing with the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic that nobody knew about it. Nobody has a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>years and most of our scholars has failed to tell

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<v Speaker 1>us the truth of these virus. But we on there

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<v Speaker 1>forth from being since March telling us what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>right now? We know this for two in our neighborhoods

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<v Speaker 1>how tested positive in our tests that we do. We

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<v Speaker 1>ins almost two thousand doctors or those one more than

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred hundred family practices will take care of two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred kids, which is almost goes to a four fifth

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<v Speaker 1>the faith for all the kids in New York City

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<v Speaker 1>we've been testing. Then forty two our neighbors are positive.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's the average between the four main border that we

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<v Speaker 1>are on. Then it that's true. I mean the fifth

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<v Speaker 1>percent has not seen the virus yet. You opened the

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<v Speaker 1>school and the numbers that the mayor or the government

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<v Speaker 1>has given us one to two percent. That mean for

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<v Speaker 1>every every thousand kids twenty to ten really positive, you're

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<v Speaker 1>join the other one who are negative. So you're saying,

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<v Speaker 1>you guys have testing kids in communities and you represent

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<v Speaker 1>largely many of certainly the public school systems in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City. Of those kids are positive, I'm guessing a

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<v Speaker 1>fair manner asymptomatic. And the concern is that they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be in the community and there will be spread. No,

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<v Speaker 1>let me tell you forty two percent positive in blood tests,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean they already had the disease. That means the

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<v Speaker 1>fifty percent and haven't seen virus. Therefore, those one will

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<v Speaker 1>be supposed in the school with the ten with the

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<v Speaker 1>one or two percent that it is estimated that they

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<v Speaker 1>say is positively. Now, therefore, for each thousand kids ten

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty went to the school we positive, then the

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<v Speaker 1>other one will get infected. The majority will never have symptoms,

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<v Speaker 1>but they going back to the houses. Who's gonna get infected?

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<v Speaker 1>Their partients and their grandparents, the people who are the

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<v Speaker 1>most need. They have to find the food day today.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't have a steady job. They lost their job,

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<v Speaker 1>they couldn't find medication, they had no in students. We've

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<v Speaker 1>been hitting very home. But you don't think with New

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<v Speaker 1>York City. We talked about this before we started this

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<v Speaker 1>interview for a New York audience. You don't think um

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Tillage. We talked about the city's positive COVID nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>tests rate, you know, to the lowest since the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>began in March. I mean the numbers have come way down.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't think that's strong enough, good enough, safe enough

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<v Speaker 1>for kids to go back. I just give you the example.

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta ask your kids. Will you just send it

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<v Speaker 1>knowing that if you have one percent and the school

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<v Speaker 1>has a thousand kids then will be positive. That's one percent. Then,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean those things we jump around kids are kids

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<v Speaker 1>in the school with in our neighborhoods are still negative

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<v Speaker 1>and they will getting affected. There's no one answer. And

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<v Speaker 1>then you asked me about what happened to stay at home?

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<v Speaker 1>Who's gonna take care of them? The motherity to work,

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<v Speaker 1>the father need to work, or the way they can survive.

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<v Speaker 1>They lose their job if they find a job to do,

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<v Speaker 1>if they do the jog Hando Insurance there's no one

0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:33.640
<v Speaker 1>clear answer, but whichever is the answer has to be

0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:37.360
<v Speaker 1>done between all the past, talking together, the teachers, the parents,

0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:41.520
<v Speaker 1>obviously the doctors in the community. We are willing to

0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.960
<v Speaker 1>give five computers if they're going to open. We want

0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.000
<v Speaker 1>the nurses in the school, yes, we need them and

0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:50.839
<v Speaker 1>want them to be attached to the primary care. There

0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:54.319
<v Speaker 1>is interchange of information according to all the hip a compliance,

0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:58.000
<v Speaker 1>but we could tell them not only the vaccine that

0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:03.080
<v Speaker 1>could happen at some point, how who and when they

0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.880
<v Speaker 1>were in fact, how many are infected and what kind

0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:08.319
<v Speaker 1>of our scene they need for all the diseases, the

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:13.240
<v Speaker 1>one within the pandemic. So Dr Talaj, what does a

0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.120
<v Speaker 1>good plan look like? What do we need to do

0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.320
<v Speaker 1>at this point? Do we just need to wait for

0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:22.080
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine? There's no question, there is no one answer

0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.760
<v Speaker 1>for that. I agree totally with the Teachers Association. We

0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:28.600
<v Speaker 1>had to wait, We had to implement songs in that

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.240
<v Speaker 1>we all coinsolution and know it's going to be painful.

0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.280
<v Speaker 1>But if we open right now the way it is,

0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:37.920
<v Speaker 1>there's no different from March. Still, people are positive out

0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 1>there and then we come to the school and the

0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:42.880
<v Speaker 1>kids doesn't see the virus will get effected, and then

0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 1>we're bringing home and elderly and parents are gonna die.

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.439
<v Speaker 1>They're gonna be very sick. And we don't want to

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 1>see the same way it happened before in New York City.

0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.719
<v Speaker 1>We don't. So I do what and if and if

0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:57.320
<v Speaker 1>they open, I don't see. I don't want to see

0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.000
<v Speaker 1>one of my kids going to public hopital to get

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:05.880
<v Speaker 1>That's it. That's preposterous, petricians or in the school? Well

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.360
<v Speaker 1>is that how I mean? A vaccine is not around

0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the corner. We may not even get something before the

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 1>end of the year, and some say maybe it'll be

0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.680
<v Speaker 1>a year from now before we really have something that's

0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.880
<v Speaker 1>very successful in terms of the immunity it creates, creates

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:25.479
<v Speaker 1>an individuals. But I do wonder Dr Talaj. In the meantime,

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 1>there is pressure to get kids back to school because

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 1>there are those who, as you know, can hire private

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:35.559
<v Speaker 1>tutors or you know, learn from home successfully, and so

0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.720
<v Speaker 1>we are worried about who gets left behind as a

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:41.520
<v Speaker 1>result of this. If we could have rapid testing in

0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:47.520
<v Speaker 1>schools and administered by medical professional, would that make it

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:52.560
<v Speaker 1>safer significantly? Would your opinion change about the safetiness of

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.280
<v Speaker 1>our the safety of having kids back at school. Let

0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:56.840
<v Speaker 1>me ask you a question. Are you talking about to

0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:01.240
<v Speaker 1>do one point one million every three days? I guess

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.680
<v Speaker 1>I guess that's not realistic. Certainly not to that. Let's

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 1>let's start that way. We are. You know, we have physicians,

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:12.400
<v Speaker 1>We believe in science. Besides that, I'm very trusting in

0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 1>God and Christian and tratolly. But I'm telling you right

0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 1>now it Cattaby is some kind of business if they

0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:20.280
<v Speaker 1>want to open the school the way we're talking about.

0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 1>Nothing has changed this March, and we've been in the

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:24.960
<v Speaker 1>fourth Front, and we we were the first one to

0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.040
<v Speaker 1>get the alert at the beginning of March. I'm being

0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 1>sorry they. You know, March we told them seventy of

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.680
<v Speaker 1>the people and queens are positive. Stop we need to isolation.

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 1>They were looking for ventilators. We know what we're saying.

0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.280
<v Speaker 1>We don't have the answer yet. There's no science answer

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 1>about this vible. Certainly we know that the vaccine that

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 1>I produced, they want to produce it because they want

0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:50.600
<v Speaker 1>to create antibody and the kids. Now we know the

0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 1>forty two of our kids has antibody. That's an average.

0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:59.960
<v Speaker 1>Our neighbor therefore is the most important number. Those are negative,

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:03.400
<v Speaker 1>they haven't seen the virus. Those we get infected. Here

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 1>we go again, Here we go again, and most of

0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 1>the time cheater does not have symptoms. So then do

0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 1>we just need to wait for her immunity. Then, well,

0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>I just tell you what the facts are. Now, we

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>sit down together on the teachers, the parents, the stakeholders

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.880
<v Speaker 1>decide this is the way we go single go wrong,

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 1>to go right, it will be casualties. That's probably what's

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 1>not to happen. This is really we're dealing here with this.

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.280
<v Speaker 1>We call it the SOLIDU virus because people are dying alone,

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 1>they cannot even see their family. I don't want to

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:41.800
<v Speaker 1>see another round the same way we saw it a

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 1>few months ago, when so many people die in our neighborhood.

0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 1>Those are the same one who has no computers. Their

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 1>farthing had no computers. I want to take the kids

0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.480
<v Speaker 1>they know, they don't know that have WiFi. All of

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:54.800
<v Speaker 1>the things you have to put in consideraction. But there's

0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 1>no one answer. One thing is an answer. This virus

0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>still killed the saying. So bottom line, you would say,

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.560
<v Speaker 1>no school's open come September. In New York City just

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.400
<v Speaker 1>quickly just got about thirty seconds they do, we will

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 1>be supposed all right, Well, we're gonna leave it there.

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. We look forward to keeping in

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 1>touch with you. Dr Ramon to Lodge, founder chairman of

0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>some most Community Care. It is a network of independent

0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 1>physicians more than healthcare providers involved, serving predominantly Latino and

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 1>immigrant communities. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:38.880
<v Speaker 1>and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Check out this Bloomberg

0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Business Week story because let's not forget with Despite everything

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:47.680
<v Speaker 1>going on, hackers never let up this story at Business

0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:51.360
<v Speaker 1>Week about how hackers bled one eighteen bitcoins out of

0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>COVID researchers in the United States. So, yeah, there is

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 1>a virus angle here. Carter ke Marotra is cybersecurity reporter

0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:01.600
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News, joins us on the phone from sam Francisco. Cardike.

0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Interesting story, tell us what's going on. So in early June,

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:14.199
<v Speaker 1>um attackers, cyber attackers from a cybergang broke into the

0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:18.359
<v Speaker 1>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of California

0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:22.639
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. UCSF is uh famous for its med school

0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.440
<v Speaker 1>and its teaching hospital and was was in the midst

0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 1>of some COVID related research. They were looking into UM

0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.800
<v Speaker 1>at the time, we were still wondering whether hydroxy chloroquinn

0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:36.359
<v Speaker 1>could could offer any redeeming value as as treatment. They

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:40.000
<v Speaker 1>were looking into contact tracing programs. They wanted to know

0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 1>who was adversely affected most by COVID and UH. In

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.439
<v Speaker 1>that first week of June, hackers locked up seven of

0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 1>their servers UM and UH and demanded three million dollars

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 1>in ransom. It took about a week. UCSF hired a

0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 1>negotiator and some lawyers to to help them see their

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:02.280
<v Speaker 1>way through this, and over the course of a week, UM,

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>we we got a glimpse into what it takes to

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.280
<v Speaker 1>get out of this very very messy situation. Yeah. So

0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:13.800
<v Speaker 1>you saw basically the communication between the operator and you.

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.960
<v Speaker 1>C SF tell us what was in there, because the

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:20.879
<v Speaker 1>back and forth is fascinating. It's really strange. UH. So

0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 1>you've got one side that that is, you know, objectively

0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:28.640
<v Speaker 1>a criminal, right and in a real world situation, there's

0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:34.040
<v Speaker 1>no way you you offer legitimacy too to their business model,

0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:37.560
<v Speaker 1>which is holding you hostage. But in a cyber realm,

0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:41.239
<v Speaker 1>there's no chance of or very little chance of at

0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:44.520
<v Speaker 1>least immediately catching these bad guys. You have to take

0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.040
<v Speaker 1>them seriously. And that's what this negotiator did, was was

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 1>provide them with the respect they needed. They demanded respect um,

0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:55.639
<v Speaker 1>and so the negotiator had to provide them with that

0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:58.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of certainty that we are taking you seriously. We

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:00.800
<v Speaker 1>we know that this is your business model and and

0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:03.600
<v Speaker 1>you're just here to do your job. And so UM

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:07.000
<v Speaker 1>UCSF really had to sort of buy into that. And

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.439
<v Speaker 1>and so the back and forth over weeks was but

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:14.359
<v Speaker 1>at times comical, almost like amateur drama. Ish um. But

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:17.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, car, I want to do a reading around

0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:20.199
<v Speaker 1>the table with the lines back and forth here because

0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you say, the guys uh at u c SF UM,

0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:26.120
<v Speaker 1>we're saying to the hackers, we've poured almost all our

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:29.080
<v Speaker 1>funds into COVID nineteen research to help cure this disease.

0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:31.240
<v Speaker 1>Um that on top of all the cuts due to

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:33.199
<v Speaker 1>classes being canceled as put a serious drain in the

0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:35.359
<v Speaker 1>whole school. You know, they're like, we don't have the

0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:38.760
<v Speaker 1>money basically, and then the operator was like, wait a minute.

0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:40.919
<v Speaker 1>You know the school, you know, you collect more than

0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.399
<v Speaker 1>seven billion in revenue each year. You've got lawyers, you

0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:46.240
<v Speaker 1>got security consultants. We think you should be good for

0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:49.080
<v Speaker 1>a few mil. Yeah, they just weren't buying it right.

0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:53.280
<v Speaker 1>They saw this as a massive institution that spend billions

0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:55.960
<v Speaker 1>every year. Uh, and they should have a couple of

0:19:56.000 --> 0:20:00.720
<v Speaker 1>mill to toss around to get their system back online. Unfortunately.

0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:04.160
<v Speaker 1>Or UCSFS contention was that, look, we're in the middle

0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:06.359
<v Speaker 1>of a pandemic. We don't know if our students are

0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:08.200
<v Speaker 1>coming back and if anybody's going to be paying their

0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:11.240
<v Speaker 1>bills to us this fall. Um, we're trying to research

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:14.640
<v Speaker 1>a cure for this this disease. We just don't have

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:17.520
<v Speaker 1>that kind of cash laying around. So their initial offer

0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:24.200
<v Speaker 1>was three dollars um and and the operator scoffed at it.

0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:26.800
<v Speaker 1>He just he or she just didn't didn't see it

0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:29.880
<v Speaker 1>as a reasonable offer because they obviously have a job

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:33.119
<v Speaker 1>to do as well, and you know, like any salesperson,

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:35.520
<v Speaker 1>they have a boss as well. Uh. And they were

0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:38.160
<v Speaker 1>afraid of taking three to their boss in the first place.

0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 1>They said, look, you have to do better than that. Well,

0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:43.600
<v Speaker 1>and you know, down lower in this story, and I

0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:46.199
<v Speaker 1>encourage everybody to read this because it does take some

0:20:46.240 --> 0:20:50.160
<v Speaker 1>twists and turns and you're reminded that as cinematic as

0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:52.160
<v Speaker 1>this is, and I couldn't help thinking if they made

0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:54.879
<v Speaker 1>the big Lebowski now it would have to involve some

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 1>some bitcoin. Um. But you know, you do have some

0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:03.600
<v Speaker 1>really interesting moments where the representative from UCSF basically is like,

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:06.439
<v Speaker 1>look man like as you say, like my jobs on

0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:09.399
<v Speaker 1>the line. Here people are essentially making fun of me.

0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 1>They think I totally messed this up. And you have

0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 1>the operator coming back and be like, it's really not

0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:16.359
<v Speaker 1>your fault. We could do this to anyone. I mean,

0:21:16.400 --> 0:21:19.000
<v Speaker 1>it's chilling in a lot of ways, and it's it's

0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.480
<v Speaker 1>really true. Um. And so the most important aspect of

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:25.040
<v Speaker 1>that is it's it's unimportant to understand. I guess that

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:27.879
<v Speaker 1>this is a negotiation tactic as much as it is

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:30.679
<v Speaker 1>a reflection of what's going on at UCSU. So it

0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:33.760
<v Speaker 1>is entirely possible that this individual was being blamed for

0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:37.200
<v Speaker 1>the hack. And you know, victims of ransomware attacks typically

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:39.560
<v Speaker 1>don't want to talk about this in public because being

0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:44.520
<v Speaker 1>victimized can be Uh, there's there's a notion that it's embarrassing, right,

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:49.639
<v Speaker 1>but here, um, you know this, Sorry, the negotiator Um

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:53.359
<v Speaker 1>presented that look, I am UM being held at fault

0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 1>here and there's no way out of this unless you

0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:59.040
<v Speaker 1>help me get through this. So will you please, um,

0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:01.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, help find us solution one that's reasonable? Uh,

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:05.480
<v Speaker 1>and that I think really UM sort of appealed to

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:08.080
<v Speaker 1>to the operator because they saw, look, this is a

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.680
<v Speaker 1>person who's taking us seriously, who was willing to work

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:12.959
<v Speaker 1>with us. I will I will make money off of

0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:14.960
<v Speaker 1>this one way or another. And it did help. I

0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:17.760
<v Speaker 1>told you it needs a table reading, right, Jason, you

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 1>play You play the hacker, I'll play one of the negotiators. Cardigan, Cardigate.

0:22:23.119 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 1>You can like kind of you know, be the narrator.

0:22:25.480 --> 0:22:28.680
<v Speaker 1>You'll be the clock. Yeah, totally, you could be the clock,

0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:30.159
<v Speaker 1>like I could see. It's like a kind of a

0:22:30.200 --> 0:22:33.640
<v Speaker 1>one act play. I mean, it's just this is our times, right,

0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:35.159
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is the kind of stuff that we are.

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.280
<v Speaker 1>Despite to some extent we have better controls, we still

0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:39.920
<v Speaker 1>have to deal with stuff like this. Just got about

0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:43.560
<v Speaker 1>forty seconds here. It's absolutely true and and what the

0:22:43.560 --> 0:22:46.520
<v Speaker 1>operator was saying was in fact the truth. This could

0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.680
<v Speaker 1>happen to anyone and it wasn't the fault of UCSF.

0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:53.000
<v Speaker 1>They were a victim, right and and the university had

0:22:53.040 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>to do what it could to to get out of it.

0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 1>But it's important to understand that if you are attacked, um,

0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>talking about it and explain what happened to you will

0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 1>help others defend against similar attacks in the future. Yeah, well,

0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:07.080
<v Speaker 1>props to them for sharing this story with you, and

0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:09.400
<v Speaker 1>props to you for telling it so well. We really

0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:13.080
<v Speaker 1>appreciate you joining us. Check it out on the Bloomberg

0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:18.320
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg dot Com. Card K Marotra is cybersecurity reporter

0:23:18.440 --> 0:23:20.479
<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg News. He joined us on the phone from

0:23:20.520 --> 0:23:23.840
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. You see SF hack shows evolving rest of

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:28.359
<v Speaker 1>ransomware in the COVID era. This is Bloomberg Business Week

0:23:28.520 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:35.800
<v Speaker 1>for this edition of Bloomberg Green, we turned to one

0:23:35.840 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 1>of our faves, Noah boom Hire, finance reporter for Bloomberg,

0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:42.680
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from Seattle. And he's looking

0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:47.040
<v Speaker 1>south in this case toward California, where we know those

0:23:47.080 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 1>wildfires are raging. If it's not one thing, it's another

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:56.560
<v Speaker 1>there in California climate obviously a huge piece of this

0:23:56.840 --> 0:24:01.119
<v Speaker 1>fire risk. But there's a guy who's got a cure

0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:04.119
<v Speaker 1>of sorts. Noah, this is a phenomenal story. We always

0:24:04.119 --> 0:24:06.920
<v Speaker 1>love talking to you. Everybody has a guy. He's got

0:24:06.960 --> 0:24:09.439
<v Speaker 1>a guy. I mean, this is really something. Tell us

0:24:09.480 --> 0:24:14.720
<v Speaker 1>about what's going on here. Yeah, So this feature, UM,

0:24:14.760 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 1>I reported about a guy named Jim Moseley. He started

0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:23.400
<v Speaker 1>a company several years back. Uh. The name is Sunfire Defense,

0:24:23.760 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 1>and basically he's selling a variety of uh wildfire protection

0:24:31.880 --> 0:24:36.960
<v Speaker 1>gear or uh that that homeowners can use to to

0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:40.000
<v Speaker 1>help harden their homes and you know, when a wildfire

0:24:40.760 --> 0:24:44.119
<v Speaker 1>comes through, hopefully will help save the structure. Um. The

0:24:44.840 --> 0:24:48.960
<v Speaker 1>problem is that uh one of his main products, called

0:24:49.119 --> 0:24:57.160
<v Speaker 1>FPF three thousand has uh drawn the attention of uh

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:02.160
<v Speaker 1>some attorneys in Santa Barbara and the l A City attorney. UM,

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:05.560
<v Speaker 1>and they're basically alleging that he's made uh, you know,

0:25:05.760 --> 0:25:09.439
<v Speaker 1>falser misleading claims about this product. Um. You know, namely

0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:11.800
<v Speaker 1>that it's not nearly as effective as he says it is,

0:25:12.080 --> 0:25:17.280
<v Speaker 1>and uh, uh that it's toxic, even after he said

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:20.000
<v Speaker 1>that it was a you know, not harmful to humans

0:25:20.080 --> 0:25:22.439
<v Speaker 1>or animals and that kind of stuff. So tell us

0:25:22.480 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 1>you actually I believe witnessed it firsthand. Yeah, so in February,

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:31.480
<v Speaker 1>actually before the pandemic shut everything down, I spent a

0:25:31.560 --> 0:25:34.000
<v Speaker 1>day with him in Los Angeles and got a demonstration

0:25:34.000 --> 0:25:37.040
<v Speaker 1>on the product. And it's, you know, it's pretty compelling.

0:25:37.119 --> 0:25:40.000
<v Speaker 1>He he takes a stick that he says was treated

0:25:40.040 --> 0:25:44.959
<v Speaker 1>with this substance, and uh takes a blowtorch to it,

0:25:45.240 --> 0:25:48.520
<v Speaker 1>and you know, the part of the stick that hasn't

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:52.040
<v Speaker 1>been treated, UM gets very brittle and breaks, and the

0:25:52.160 --> 0:25:56.080
<v Speaker 1>part uh that is uh gets a nice char on it.

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:57.960
<v Speaker 1>But then you know, he'll take a key out of

0:25:58.000 --> 0:26:00.800
<v Speaker 1>his pocket or a coin and scratch that off, and

0:26:00.880 --> 0:26:03.320
<v Speaker 1>you see the wood beneath. Can I just mention the

0:26:03.359 --> 0:26:06.840
<v Speaker 1>cost of this? You put your story three dollars fifty

0:26:06.840 --> 0:26:09.080
<v Speaker 1>cents per square foot, which means it costs tens of

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:12.600
<v Speaker 1>thousands of dollars to cover a large home using SPF

0:26:12.640 --> 0:26:15.600
<v Speaker 1>three thousand. I mean, this isn't I mean, this isn't cheap. Now,

0:26:15.640 --> 0:26:18.120
<v Speaker 1>mind you, if you're saving a multimillion dollar home, it's

0:26:18.160 --> 0:26:21.680
<v Speaker 1>pretty inexpensive, I guess, but I mean it's not. I mean, look,

0:26:21.680 --> 0:26:26.919
<v Speaker 1>that's yeah, that's the value proposition. And you know, uh, Mosley,

0:26:26.960 --> 0:26:29.280
<v Speaker 1>you know has an interesting client lift as a result.

0:26:29.320 --> 0:26:33.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean he has treated parts of the Neverland ranch.

0:26:33.640 --> 0:26:38.160
<v Speaker 1>He uh treated the home of Star Wars actor Mark

0:26:38.240 --> 0:26:43.960
<v Speaker 1>Hamill and Malibu Um Dean Koon's the best selling novelists. Uh.

0:26:44.359 --> 0:26:48.160
<v Speaker 1>He's managed to attract the attention of some well known folks.

0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:51.960
<v Speaker 1>And I mean, how much of this, you know, sort

0:26:52.000 --> 0:26:55.280
<v Speaker 1>of taking a step back, Noah is about the fact

0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:58.520
<v Speaker 1>that especially I mean, as we see these headlines, it's

0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:02.920
<v Speaker 1>just unbelievable the to be reminded of this wildfire risk.

0:27:02.920 --> 0:27:05.480
<v Speaker 1>And I was reading, uh and listening to a story

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:07.919
<v Speaker 1>recently by actually by a friend of mine out at

0:27:07.960 --> 0:27:11.919
<v Speaker 1>k queed and California talking about the enormous risk of wildfires,

0:27:12.000 --> 0:27:16.400
<v Speaker 1>especially to you know, those most vulnerable and living homes

0:27:16.400 --> 0:27:18.760
<v Speaker 1>and nursing homes. Uh. You should check that out as

0:27:18.920 --> 0:27:22.239
<v Speaker 1>an aside. But um, I mean people will sort of

0:27:22.359 --> 0:27:25.400
<v Speaker 1>do whatever they can in many ways, he's taking advantage

0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:29.040
<v Speaker 1>of people, one could argue, who are desperate for any

0:27:29.080 --> 0:27:32.480
<v Speaker 1>solution here. Well, yeah, I mean that's that's essentially what

0:27:32.520 --> 0:27:35.760
<v Speaker 1>the district attorney and Santa Barbara and the city attorney

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:37.960
<v Speaker 1>in l A are arguing, is that is that he's

0:27:38.040 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 1>this is a predatory company that he's praying on people's

0:27:40.280 --> 0:27:43.879
<v Speaker 1>and securities and fears and the you know, very well

0:27:44.000 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 1>established fact that wildfire risk is high in a lot

0:27:47.320 --> 0:27:50.440
<v Speaker 1>of parts of California and climate change is making it worse.

0:27:50.600 --> 0:27:53.719
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's that's ultimately why I wanted to do

0:27:53.760 --> 0:27:57.119
<v Speaker 1>this story. Uh there, you know, mostly is not alone.

0:27:57.240 --> 0:28:00.560
<v Speaker 1>There are lots of people and lots of company peddling

0:28:00.680 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 1>fixes to this problem. But the fact the matter is

0:28:05.000 --> 0:28:08.359
<v Speaker 1>that development patterns and a changing climate have created a

0:28:08.400 --> 0:28:11.639
<v Speaker 1>situation where you've got you know, hundreds of billions of

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:15.000
<v Speaker 1>dollars of real estate at risk, UM in this state,

0:28:15.240 --> 0:28:18.920
<v Speaker 1>and UM, you know, people who live there are at

0:28:18.920 --> 0:28:23.600
<v Speaker 1>a point that they're willing to just put their hope

0:28:23.640 --> 0:28:29.040
<v Speaker 1>in their faith in unproven or you know, not very

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:32.480
<v Speaker 1>well tested solutions to the problem. And you know, one

0:28:32.480 --> 0:28:34.440
<v Speaker 1>of the things we tried to highlight this is really

0:28:34.520 --> 0:28:38.440
<v Speaker 1>a story of our moment right now. We're going through

0:28:39.240 --> 0:28:43.080
<v Speaker 1>um a lot right now with the coronavirus, and and

0:28:43.080 --> 0:28:46.720
<v Speaker 1>there are parallels there. People are are are searching for

0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 1>cures to that disease, and um, you know, in the

0:28:50.160 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 1>absence of of a solution and a vaccine, people are

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 1>just grasping for for whatever they can. Now it's a

0:28:58.800 --> 0:29:00.760
<v Speaker 1>really good point. I'm glad you made a parallel because

0:29:00.760 --> 0:29:03.000
<v Speaker 1>it did certainly recur to me as I was reading

0:29:03.040 --> 0:29:05.840
<v Speaker 1>your piece. No Blue Hire, thank you so much. Finance

0:29:05.840 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg. He joined us on the phone from Seattle.

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:11.640
<v Speaker 1>Check out his story in wildfire ravage California. A salesman

0:29:11.760 --> 0:29:15.840
<v Speaker 1>is peddling cure. Read that story and more on climate news, science,

0:29:15.840 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 1>and the environment at bloomberg dot com slash green bro

0:29:22.840 --> 0:29:26.760
<v Speaker 1>a journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no,

0:29:26.800 --> 0:29:32.080
<v Speaker 1>who's going to drive? Honey? Please, I'll do the right velvet.

0:29:32.520 --> 0:29:41.440
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive ball, just drive baby. The questions trying.

0:29:47.880 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe. Thanks, we'll drive

0:29:51.800 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>us down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, it is time

0:29:56.920 --> 0:29:59.480
<v Speaker 1>for the drive to the clothes. And as we head

0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:02.080
<v Speaker 1>towards that, we're about eleven minutes way, less than eleven

0:30:02.120 --> 0:30:04.880
<v Speaker 1>minutes way. Let's check out with Michael Congino, President and

0:30:04.880 --> 0:30:08.840
<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager for the Permanent Portfolio family of funds. He

0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 1>joins on the phone from San Francisco. Michael, how are you?

0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:15.040
<v Speaker 1>How are things in San Francisco? Good? Afternoon, Jason, Uh,

0:30:15.240 --> 0:30:18.600
<v Speaker 1>pretty good, although we've had a few fires, um, you know,

0:30:18.720 --> 0:30:21.880
<v Speaker 1>north and east of the city, um Tahoe area, the

0:30:21.920 --> 0:30:24.400
<v Speaker 1>wine country, which is making the air quality not quite

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:26.720
<v Speaker 1>as good. We had a lot of dry thunder and

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:29.239
<v Speaker 1>lightning earlier in the week. Um didn't a mount too

0:30:29.320 --> 0:30:31.600
<v Speaker 1>much rain, but some of that lightning hit the ground

0:30:31.600 --> 0:30:33.960
<v Speaker 1>and cause some fire. So it's it's creating an early

0:30:34.000 --> 0:30:37.560
<v Speaker 1>start to the fire season, which has been difficult. Yeah. Well,

0:30:37.640 --> 0:30:39.760
<v Speaker 1>and on top of you know, California and I know

0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:43.280
<v Speaker 1>northern California and southern California have had uh sort of

0:30:43.280 --> 0:30:46.760
<v Speaker 1>a different experience of late and really throughout the pandemic.

0:30:46.880 --> 0:30:49.200
<v Speaker 1>But um, I tell you, I know it's not getting

0:30:49.240 --> 0:30:52.040
<v Speaker 1>any easier for you guys out there. And yet in

0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 1>the midst of all this, we have a market that continues,

0:30:54.960 --> 0:30:59.000
<v Speaker 1>even if we're off our highs today, to grind higher.

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:01.400
<v Speaker 1>What do you make of if we're asking everybody we

0:31:01.480 --> 0:31:05.440
<v Speaker 1>can talk to about this seeming disconnect between a pretty

0:31:05.440 --> 0:31:09.080
<v Speaker 1>scary underlying economy, a health crisis, and a market that

0:31:09.200 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 1>is setting records. Well, it's not unusual for the stock

0:31:13.440 --> 0:31:17.000
<v Speaker 1>market to not exactly correlate to the broader economy. I

0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:19.080
<v Speaker 1>mean for the better part of the two thousands. I

0:31:19.080 --> 0:31:22.520
<v Speaker 1>mean you had you know, roughly one to two GDP growth,

0:31:22.520 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 1>and you had stock market and your returns up in

0:31:24.560 --> 0:31:28.280
<v Speaker 1>the teams to or more. Um So it's nothing unusual.

0:31:28.360 --> 0:31:32.320
<v Speaker 1>The stock market is predicting future economic activity in all likelihood.

0:31:32.560 --> 0:31:34.640
<v Speaker 1>Some of the things that are driving the stock market,

0:31:34.920 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, a lot of the games are centered in

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:41.760
<v Speaker 1>a few industries like technology UM, information services, communications, UM,

0:31:41.880 --> 0:31:44.640
<v Speaker 1>that are doing very well in this downturn versus other

0:31:44.920 --> 0:31:47.640
<v Speaker 1>broader economy industries that are more cyclical, that are more

0:31:48.080 --> 0:31:51.840
<v Speaker 1>um dependent on human labor, and those sorts of things.

0:31:51.920 --> 0:31:55.920
<v Speaker 1>I have to jump in. Two thousand didn't end so well, no,

0:31:56.160 --> 0:31:58.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean that was the beginning of the two thousand recession.

0:31:59.120 --> 0:32:02.440
<v Speaker 1>Um uh. And you know you had a ten year

0:32:02.520 --> 0:32:06.160
<v Speaker 1>run at that point that h that you know, we're

0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:08.960
<v Speaker 1>talking two thousand, nineteen, we thousand, talking about two thousand

0:32:09.040 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 1>itself twenty years ago. Well, I'm just saying, you know,

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:14.480
<v Speaker 1>you said, you know, we've seen market disconnect before from

0:32:14.520 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 1>kind of what's going on in the real economy, and

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:19.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm just thinking you mentioned, you know, the two thousand

0:32:19.640 --> 0:32:21.520
<v Speaker 1>run up, and it didn't end so well. And I

0:32:21.520 --> 0:32:24.640
<v Speaker 1>do wonder if you think we're so disconnected. We have

0:32:24.720 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 1>seen it before, but do you think this isn't going

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 1>to end well? Well? At some point? I mean to me,

0:32:30.240 --> 0:32:34.760
<v Speaker 1>there's a there's a broad, long term corel correlation between

0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:38.880
<v Speaker 1>stock market performance and the economy because stocks are driven

0:32:38.920 --> 0:32:41.080
<v Speaker 1>on the basis of the health of the economy and

0:32:41.120 --> 0:32:44.520
<v Speaker 1>the ability to to own the companies that make goods

0:32:44.520 --> 0:32:46.960
<v Speaker 1>and services and that sort of thing. So you do

0:32:47.000 --> 0:32:50.120
<v Speaker 1>have a broad correlation over time, but in shorter periods

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:52.880
<v Speaker 1>you can have all kinds of anomalies that that make

0:32:52.920 --> 0:32:54.920
<v Speaker 1>it so the stock market has a great year and

0:32:54.960 --> 0:32:58.320
<v Speaker 1>the economy does not, or vice versa. And what I'm

0:32:58.360 --> 0:33:00.880
<v Speaker 1>saying is that in this particular vironment you have one

0:33:00.920 --> 0:33:04.720
<v Speaker 1>of those You have investors anticipating a better economy coming

0:33:04.720 --> 0:33:07.240
<v Speaker 1>out of COVID. You have certain industries that are driving

0:33:07.280 --> 0:33:10.000
<v Speaker 1>of the large majority of the market gains that have

0:33:10.120 --> 0:33:13.600
<v Speaker 1>been doing better than the overall economy during this this

0:33:13.680 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 1>period of COVID. So therefore the stock prices of those

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:19.840
<v Speaker 1>companies are going up and maybe giving a warped picture

0:33:19.840 --> 0:33:23.200
<v Speaker 1>of the broader stock market in light of the weaker

0:33:23.440 --> 0:33:27.360
<v Speaker 1>broader economy. So there's a normalies even now that make

0:33:27.440 --> 0:33:30.120
<v Speaker 1>it so that again it's not unusual for the stock

0:33:30.160 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 1>market to not exactly track the broader economy. Talk to

0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:37.239
<v Speaker 1>me about several silver and gold, Michael, because I know

0:33:37.280 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 1>that that's something you've taken a look at, and I

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:41.440
<v Speaker 1>know it's something that's been on the minds of a

0:33:41.440 --> 0:33:44.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of investors out there. How do you factor those

0:33:44.800 --> 0:33:48.680
<v Speaker 1>precious metals into the investment thesis? Well, in our in

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:51.760
<v Speaker 1>our program, we we believe that you know, owning those

0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:54.760
<v Speaker 1>assets are an integral part of long term wealth building,

0:33:54.800 --> 0:33:56.840
<v Speaker 1>and so a failure to own them leaves a hole

0:33:56.880 --> 0:33:59.440
<v Speaker 1>in your strategy. UM. So our view is to not

0:33:59.520 --> 0:34:02.920
<v Speaker 1>only owned stocks and bonds, but also in commodities, natural resources,

0:34:02.960 --> 0:34:06.360
<v Speaker 1>real estate, and and gold and silver as asset classes.

0:34:06.400 --> 0:34:08.560
<v Speaker 1>So we believe in them long term. And when you

0:34:08.600 --> 0:34:12.280
<v Speaker 1>look at the environment right now, um, with the fedback

0:34:12.360 --> 0:34:17.800
<v Speaker 1>stopping everything, um, with the likelihood of even more stimulus

0:34:17.840 --> 0:34:21.000
<v Speaker 1>than we've already created, with the ability of that stimulus

0:34:21.040 --> 0:34:23.359
<v Speaker 1>to get onto main street, which was not true ten

0:34:23.440 --> 0:34:25.800
<v Speaker 1>to twelve years ago. It stayed mostly in the banking

0:34:25.840 --> 0:34:28.799
<v Speaker 1>system to recap the banks. Um, you know you have

0:34:28.840 --> 0:34:33.360
<v Speaker 1>inflationary pressures or potentially um expected inflationary potential, you know,

0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:36.600
<v Speaker 1>pressures when the economy begins to grow again. Not only that,

0:34:36.680 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 1>but the uncertainty factor created by COVID. I mean, to me,

0:34:39.960 --> 0:34:42.600
<v Speaker 1>there's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to really

0:34:42.600 --> 0:34:45.919
<v Speaker 1>what's happening I you know, and until that gets solidified,

0:34:45.960 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 1>I think you could go on a number of directions.

0:34:48.160 --> 0:34:50.640
<v Speaker 1>So when you add all this up, it's not surprising

0:34:50.640 --> 0:34:53.280
<v Speaker 1>that the prices of gold and silver have have gone

0:34:53.360 --> 0:34:56.480
<v Speaker 1>up UM and and we'll likely continue to do so.

0:34:56.800 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 1>Keep in mind that gold really didn't do much for

0:34:59.160 --> 0:35:02.320
<v Speaker 1>most of the the odds. I mean, it was pretty benign,

0:35:02.719 --> 0:35:05.440
<v Speaker 1>and it's begun to move again, so there's some valuation

0:35:05.560 --> 0:35:09.160
<v Speaker 1>catch up UM. But also the conditions are fertile. Negative

0:35:09.160 --> 0:35:12.200
<v Speaker 1>real interest rates across the curve is another big one UM,

0:35:12.239 --> 0:35:14.760
<v Speaker 1>and I don't see that changing anytime soon. So there's

0:35:14.840 --> 0:35:17.640
<v Speaker 1>there's room for gold to go even further and silver

0:35:17.760 --> 0:35:21.239
<v Speaker 1>as well. If you look at it on a valuation basis, UM.

0:35:21.280 --> 0:35:23.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, the value of an ounce of gold is

0:35:23.560 --> 0:35:25.719
<v Speaker 1>about point six of the value of a share of

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:29.479
<v Speaker 1>the SMP five index evaluation metric. We haven't seen since

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:32.440
<v Speaker 1>the middle of the the odds around two oh seven

0:35:32.480 --> 0:35:35.640
<v Speaker 1>to oh eight UM, so it's not overly valued even

0:35:35.680 --> 0:35:38.440
<v Speaker 1>though it's had a big run and uh and again

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:40.760
<v Speaker 1>it didn't do much for years, so there's a catchup

0:35:40.800 --> 0:35:43.840
<v Speaker 1>period that uh that is factoring in as well, and

0:35:43.920 --> 0:35:47.680
<v Speaker 1>investors are rediscovering it given this overall back stoff, and

0:35:47.680 --> 0:35:50.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that's that's why you've seen the moves you've had.

0:35:50.800 --> 0:35:52.920
<v Speaker 1>I would also say that it's a volatile asset. It

0:35:52.960 --> 0:35:55.080
<v Speaker 1>can go up and down a hundred bucks pretty quickly,

0:35:55.320 --> 0:35:58.480
<v Speaker 1>so investors need to understand that. But generally speaking, if

0:35:58.480 --> 0:36:00.399
<v Speaker 1>you buy it and hold it and you look look

0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:03.319
<v Speaker 1>back years after you bought it, you're generally up. There's

0:36:03.320 --> 0:36:06.400
<v Speaker 1>a strong correlation between the value of gold on a

0:36:06.440 --> 0:36:09.760
<v Speaker 1>long term basis and the creation of of the money

0:36:09.760 --> 0:36:11.800
<v Speaker 1>supply and liquidity and credit and I don't see that

0:36:11.920 --> 0:36:14.640
<v Speaker 1>changing at all. So for long term investor, picking spot

0:36:14.680 --> 0:36:17.160
<v Speaker 1>and definitely you want to hold some well, really really

0:36:17.200 --> 0:36:20.640
<v Speaker 1>thoughtful UM as always, Michael, thank you so much. Michael Codino.

0:36:20.760 --> 0:36:23.640
<v Speaker 1>He's president portfolio manager a Permanent Portfolio family of funds.

0:36:23.640 --> 0:36:26.760
<v Speaker 1>You've got roughly two point two billion in assets under management.

0:36:26.840 --> 0:36:29.520
<v Speaker 1>The Permanent Portfolio fund. By the way, in the nineties

0:36:29.760 --> 0:36:32.080
<v Speaker 1>percentile for funds and its category of the past five

0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:35.239
<v Speaker 1>years is up nearly eight percent annually in each of

0:36:35.280 --> 0:36:38.440
<v Speaker 1>those five years, so he's had quite a run up.

0:36:38.680 --> 0:36:41.120
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