1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: Your tunes about drive on Home of the Black and 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 1: Goal Steelers Nation Radio. Welcome back on DLLLI here with 3 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: Matt Williamson. It is the start of the NFL season. 4 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: Heck yeah, I love that. Happy the opening day at all. 5 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: And as we sit here right now, I'm looking at 6 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: Football Outsiders d v o A rankings to start the season. 7 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: And what they did was they put stuff out for 8 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 1: their book and all that, but they didn't know the 9 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 1: Watson situation. And they've been a couple of injuries since then, 10 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: you know, like the Tyrone Smith injury. They knocked Dallas's 11 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: offense down a little drastically changed the Browns outlook of course, 12 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: and if you played the Browns during those eleven games, 13 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: all your schedule type of stuff too, so there's a 14 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: big ripple effects. So these are off the date. I 15 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: think they're pretty talent. I was looking at this morning. 16 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: They really are, and this gives them more I think, 17 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: accurate picture of things because they do that. I mean, 18 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: they do a pretty good job on these things. They 19 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 1: analysis into them. So their number one team is Buffalo 20 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: with the total d v o A of fifteen point eight, 21 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: number one on offense. And I'm sorry mean wins is 22 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: ten point six. Their number three on offense, uh, their 23 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: number four on defense. UH, special teams is for I 24 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: have no idea how they do special teams. I don't 25 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: know either. I mean, I know, like some teams are 26 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: good every year and you're based it off last year, 27 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 1: but that changes a lot, you covered, they don't put 28 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 1: much weight into it. I'm pretty sure when they do 29 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: d v o A they do five parts offense, four 30 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: parts defense, one part special team. Were four three and 31 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: one something about that too. But yeah, um so they're 32 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: number one. Number two is Baltimore. They're very high on 33 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: the Ravens. Ten point seven d v o A. Uh, 34 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: number twelve one offense, number eight on defense, team, number 35 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: one on special teams. Yeah, and that's again that's a 36 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: historical thing. Them and the Patriots and the Rams are 37 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: another one that could high high marks every year. Third 38 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,359 Speaker 1: of the Chargers or I'm sorry, the Rams, then the Chargers, 39 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: then Tampa Bay, Philadelphia. I'm big on the Eagles and 40 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: I'm really warming up to them. Kansas City then comes 41 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: in kind of tied with Philadelphia. They're both eight point seven. 42 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 1: Then you've got Green Bay at seven point four, New 43 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: Orleans at seven point three, Minnesota at five point three, 44 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: Cincinnati all the way down at four point six. Yeah, 45 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: they're a little concerned about the Bengals. Yeah and yeah, 46 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: one other note that I haven't heard Aaron Shots talking 47 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: about quite a bit. He's like this year for whatever reason, 48 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 1: and this is true when they redid the d v 49 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: O as this the other day, teams are closer to 50 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 1: five hundred than usual. You know, like everyone knows there's 51 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: gonna be a thirteen win team of fourteen win team. 52 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: But when you do projections or you simulate ten thousand games, 53 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: you're always gonna you're never gonna get, you know, someone 54 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: that has an average of thirteen or fourteen wins. But 55 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: he he did, so I don't want to put a 56 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: whole lot of stock in They're only projecting him to 57 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 1: win nine point one games. Well that's pretty good. That's 58 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 1: what they ran, like a million million simulationship. So Baltimore 59 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: came in at ten point one win, Cincinnati comes in 60 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: at eight point eight. That's actually a pretty big difference, 61 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: you know, huge difference their scheme. Yeah, after Cincinnati is Dallas. 62 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: That's curious worse since he's offense defense, Cincinnati's offense comes 63 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: into eleven. Yes, that's probably lower than most. Yeah, I 64 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: think that's probably probably a little bit lower, And that 65 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: than the most I'm trying to think. I listened to 66 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: the Football Outsider podcast about DFC North, and I think 67 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: they're a little more concerned about bengals O line than 68 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: others are, which you and I have been saying kind 69 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: of like, just because you spend a bunch of money 70 00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: on it, doesn't mean you fixed anything. I mean, it's better. 71 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: No one's going to fight you on that. But I 72 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 1: don't think they look at their own line and think, wow, 73 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: that's a strength of the team. Is like, is it 74 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: really any better than the Buffalo's No, I think it's average. 75 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: Buffalo is got a bunch of average guys. Yeah, I 76 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: think that's a good good parallel. Dallas is after Cincinnati, 77 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: then Las Vegas, then New England. I forget what he 78 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: was saying about it. They've got New England. He's got 79 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: New England's offense is fifteen in the defense twenty six, 80 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: but the special teams are second. Right, because Aaron I 81 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: even shout shots I'm talking about I even't referenced him 82 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: yesterday here on the air because he grew up in 83 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: New England. He's he's an admitted Patriot fan, and he 84 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: was on the air and they did a pod football 85 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: sids in a podcast for every division. I listened to 86 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: him all and he said, I don't believe our numbers 87 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: on the Patriots. He's like, I know this team better. 88 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 1: He's like, they're not good. I've been to practice. No 89 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: one knows what the heck is going on on offense. 90 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 1: And I think how I phrase it yesterday was something 91 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: like either Belichick's playing eight dimensional chess or he's losing it, 92 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Like and that shot shots 93 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: his words. Who's closer to the team than we are? 94 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: You know? So his numbers brought him up, but he's like, 95 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: I don't believe our numbers on this one. And the 96 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: makings or another team, he said, I think are pretty high. 97 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 1: That he couldn't quite understand. After Denver or after New 98 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: England is Denver then Cleveland. It's real curious. What's Denver's 99 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: defensive d v O A uh defensive vo. Denver's defense 100 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 1: is twenty nine. Yeah see, I think people are sleeping 101 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: on Bangio lost and the defense wasn't tremendous last year 102 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,799 Speaker 1: and it's not any better, uh then Cleveland at point 103 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 1: one and the Steelers at point one. Here's the difference. 104 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: Though they have the the Browns at seven point seven wins, 105 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: they have the Steelers at eight point one. I think 106 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 1: they're factoring in those five games with Watson. Oh yeah, yeah, 107 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: and when the Steelers get to play the Browns and 108 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 1: all that stuff too. Yeah, that's exactly what. Here's the 109 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: interesting thing about out the Steelers, Zoe. You know a 110 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: couple of things. They have the offenses. I think that's fair, 111 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 1: which would be a step up from where it was 112 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: last year. I said, and done, But right now I 113 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 1: have no fight. I'm not gonna fight him on that. 114 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: The defensive d v o A number one, number one, 115 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: number one. I don't remember what Aaron had to say 116 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: about it, but I was kind of whoa. I mean, 117 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: it took me back looking at that this morning, and 118 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: the special teams d v o A again, I have 119 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: no clue. I don't know how you come up with that, um, 120 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: but I think they'll be better than they've They've been 121 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: better than pretty much every year. Yeah, Like going back over, 122 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: I think their lowest ranking under Danny Smith was like 123 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: he's a great coach they get, they dedicate some guys 124 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: to them, they have a good kicker, you know, like 125 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: I'd be shocked. But the differences is that they get 126 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: the number one schedule. See that was the column That's 127 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: interesting to me because like I always referenced strength of 128 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: schedule from Warren Sharpe, who steals them from Vegas win 129 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: totals and you know formula, it's it that way. Well, 130 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: what football siders does is they figure out everyone's d 131 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: V O A and then they say, well, these are 132 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: your seventeen games and they figure out, you know, how 133 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: tough your schedule is based off how good these teams 134 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: are right now and Steelers a brutal. I mean, it's 135 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: just top. But if we're looking at this from odds 136 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: to make the playoffs thirty five point six, I think 137 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: those are higher odds and you'll you'll see anywhere else. 138 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: I just remember looking at that column. But my initial 139 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: thoughts are, well, if you beat a couple of these 140 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: good teams in the a f C, you hurt their chances, 141 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: which helps your chances you accomplishment everywhere else that we've 142 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: looked though in the off season, has the Steelers picking 143 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: in the top ten. Right football siders disagree strongly about that. Uh, 144 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: they give them a one point five percent chance to 145 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl, which is actually Buffalo has the 146 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: best chance at twelve point seven percent, then Baltimore's at 147 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: seven point You know, then the Rams at seven point 148 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: eight actually are pretty much ahead of the rest of 149 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: the leg. They think there's a gap there where I 150 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: kind of im not sure if I believe that, but 151 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: I remember them saying, wow, there. They really think the 152 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: Bills are clearly the best team in the league. If 153 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: we're looking at this from you're ten chance to win 154 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl at thirty two teams is great. I mean, 155 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: just to hear the Steelers are, you know, one or 156 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: two percent isn't crazy to me. If we're looking at 157 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: this in terms of straight wins, uh, Philadelphia ten point six, 158 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: Buffalo ten point six. I know the NFC East have 159 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: something easiest. They get the easiestules in Washington and Philadelphia 160 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: have really easy schedules. Then the Chargers at ten point 161 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: one wins, Baltimore at ten point one wins Tampa Bay, 162 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: and the Rams at both nine point nine wins. Green 163 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: Bay at nine point seven wins. That that's your division 164 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: winners basically except for they Baltimore noticeably above since right 165 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: in the north. Then you've got your next group of 166 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: teams here. I guess these are the nine teams are 167 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: basically picked either Bob card neighborhood Dallas at nine point six, 168 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: Minnesota at nine point five, New Orleans at nine point five, 169 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: Kansas City at nine point five, the Raiders at eight 170 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: point nine, and Cincinnati at eight point eight. That would 171 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 1: be your playoff field. And then they've got Denver at 172 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: eight point six, New England at eight point five, San 173 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: Francisco at eight point three, the Steelers at eight point one. 174 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's the neighborhood they're in. The 175 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: team's after the Steelers. Well, Indianapolis is gonna win a division, 176 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 1: but they they're the best team in the a f 177 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: C South at seven seven point nine wins. They really 178 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: think the South is junk. I can't argue it. And 179 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: they're down on the Titans too, which made me feel 180 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: better about our take on the Miami at seven point 181 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 1: nine wins. I guess I could see that Detroit at 182 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: seven point eight wins. Like I wonder if you just 183 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: bet the over unders based on football outsiders, you use 184 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: on this you probably end up coming up from when 185 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: you get their almanac, they tell you, I think they 186 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: have a chapter every year of this is what here. 187 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,199 Speaker 1: Here's a screenshot of what we put out right that 188 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: we're looking at right now, and here's how things went. 189 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 1: And of course you're not gonna get everything right. But 190 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: they win more than they lose. So according to them, 191 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 1: the bottom of the league is the Giants, Thereto. Yeah, 192 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: Carolina at seven point one, and a lot of those 193 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 1: teams are gonna win four games a little you know, 194 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: Atlanta at seven point two, so two NFC cell teams. 195 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 1: Can Steelers of course play both of those teams. The 196 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: Titans at seven point two, they play them. That's amazing 197 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 1: that they're the fourth worst team. Seattle, I respect that 198 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: from football. Yeah, I felt like I got on an 199 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 1: island on that. Seattle's at seven point three, Jacksonville seven 200 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: point four, Arizona at seven point five. About that, Yeah, 201 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 1: that's interesting. Uh, then you got Washington at seven point five, 202 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,839 Speaker 1: Chicago at seven point six, Cleveland that's pretty good for 203 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: the Bears. Yeah. But again, when you when you balance 204 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: this thing out and saying, okay, some teams are gonna 205 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: win twelve or thirteen. Some teams are also gonna win 206 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: three or four. Yeah, that's just course of course. But 207 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: they have the Steelers. From the looks of things here, 208 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: Indianapolis is like the league average team. We're slightly blood 209 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 1: like the Steelers are. The Steelers are point one that 210 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: would be league average. Yeah, zero is average. Zero is average. Um, 211 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: so you know when you look at this team, I 212 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: I can't tell you how many times asked again last night, 213 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: what do you think the Steelers record is going to 214 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: be this year? And I'm like, well, eight nine, eight 215 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: nine wins if they get lucky ten you know, if 216 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: you don't get a bounce, seven is hard for me 217 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 1: to imagine. Yeah, I mean, something really bad would have 218 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: to happen in my opinion. But if you get a 219 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: couple of bounces, I think tends possible. I think tends 220 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: more likely than seven. Yeah, you know, you know what 221 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 1: I mean. You trust the coaching staff that maybe steal 222 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: one here, including potentially this week. And I'm not calling 223 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: for Kenny Pickett, trust me. But if most teams los 224 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: are starting quarterback, it's I don't know that it's disaster here. 225 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 1: You know, like you might be able to withstand a 226 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: quarterback injury more than most teams. I think if you 227 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: look at any of these teams, um, you can get 228 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: down the list. Philadelphia could they've got Minshew. He's very different, 229 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: but he's a good backup. Yeah, they could. They would 230 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: be able to get by without Buffalo. They brought him 231 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 1: what's his face? Keenum? Yeah, I mean that he's not 232 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: gonna do not for what Josh Allen doesn't. They couldn't 233 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: be any different. Chargers is their backup? I don't even 234 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: know Tyrod Taylor anymore. I don't know. That probably isn't good. 235 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: The Ravens did it last year and didn't win a 236 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: game with their backup. Yeah. I kind of look at 237 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: them like a Keenom situation. If it's two games, maybe 238 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 1: a split, and you say survive. If it's eight, you're 239 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:46,199 Speaker 1: in trouble. You're in trouble. Tampa Bay No, No, the 240 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: Rams no, no, the Packers. Who knows, I don't. I 241 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: don't see. You still don't have any different opinion on 242 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 1: Love than when they drafted him. Dallas no, no, Rush right, 243 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: Minnesota no. No, New Orleans, I guess yeah, quarterback yeah, 244 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: Kansas City no, U. Las Vegas no, no, I think 245 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: it's still him, still him. Yeah, Cincinnati absolutely not one 246 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 1: of the bad at ones. Yeah, Denver no, no, Uh, 247 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 1: New England Uh, San Francisco yes, yeah, they're as good 248 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: as Yeah, it may be better. And then you get 249 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 1: the Steelers there, um, Indias no for me, Yeah that's 250 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: uh falls now, Miami yes, Bridgewaters yeah, my backup might 251 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: be better yeah, Detroit No, the Jets, they might be 252 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: better with their possible right, there's questions. So I mean, 253 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: I mean, you look at that and on a lot 254 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: of teams to your point, I can't say that. Do 255 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: me a quick favor on that. Are you still looking 256 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: at the table? Click on the defensive rank tab at 257 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: the top, because I'm just curious what defenses they have 258 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: with the dealers, like, who's in that neighborhood? Who are 259 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: some of the top five. So pittsburghs number one, minus 260 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: five point eight, again minus being better. New Orleans is 261 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: minus five point five. I think they're a top five 262 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: type of defense. The Chargers are minus five. I agree 263 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: with that, although they might allow a lot of points. 264 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: Buffalo is minus four point eight. Everyone has The Bills 265 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 1: is the best fantasy defense. They were number one last year. 266 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: And they were. But it's funny if you go look 267 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: game by game, they got remarkably lucky playing like like 268 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: if they if they played a team that had their 269 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: started quarterback missed. One game was against the Bills, you know, 270 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: like they got remarkably lucky with their string of quarterbacks 271 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: or you know it was a time when somebody was 272 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: playing their worst or and they also had unbelievable weather 273 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: in their favor. You know, so like it's a real 274 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: good defense. But then they go to Kansas City and 275 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: allow eight points, you know, I mean, so is the 276 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: style they played doesn't help. They may allow a lot 277 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: of points tonight. I mean without eight, the Rams are 278 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: minus four, I'll buy that. Philadelphia's minus two point nine. 279 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: The Jets are minus two point six. That was one 280 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: thing Aaron was saying on the air too, He's like, 281 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: our projections love the Jets. D I can kind of 282 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: see it. It probably won't matter when it's probably on 283 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: the field a lot if they're going to play a 284 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: lot of low scoring, kind of sloppy games and the 285 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: offense won't help them. But you had Sauce Gardner and 286 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: Jamaine Johnson and on the Lawson's back, I mean they 287 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: got some dudes. Now Baltimore is eighth at minus two 288 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: point six, then Dallas at minus two point two. I 289 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: don't know if I agree with that one, and then 290 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: Chicago at minus one point. Now, that was another thing 291 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: they said about the Bears was we like this d 292 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: but they'll probably be on the field all the time, 293 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: all the time. You know, by week twelve they'll be destroyed. 294 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: And and that matters. Um thirty two is the Giants 295 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: seven point one their secondaries, I mean, I challenge anyone listen. 296 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: I mean there, and they're by far the work. Yeah. 297 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: It's like Atlanta is the second worst defense. Their their 298 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: plus four point seven. The Giants are seven point one. 299 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: Like their defensive front is good with like Thibodeau and 300 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: Leonard Williams. You know, yeah those Dudeslari. But I challenge 301 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: anyone listening to add to tell me two defensive backs 302 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: that are on the Giants right now. It's bad and 303 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: people are hiding the Tampa Bay defense and there that's interesting. Yeah, 304 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: um funny, I was just looking up some stats today 305 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: on the Steelers defense from last year to total plays 306 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: against last year one thousand one d sixteen. That was 307 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: the sixth most in the league the year before that 308 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: plays against run against the Steelers defense. Think about that, 309 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: So how much it was like a hundred and twenty 310 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: more plays run against him, two whole games to full 311 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: games worth of play games. Right, that's remarkable. Yeah, and 312 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: you have a bunch of difference. Yeah, no, I understand 313 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: you played one full more full game, but still, I mean, 314 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: just the wearing out factor, the opportunity for injury, all 315 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: that stuff, and you were playing last year with a 316 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: lot of guys who weren't used to playing those kind 317 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: of roles. Like, for example, the Ravens offense ran the 318 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: most plays in the league last year, Seattle was a 319 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: distant thirty second. It was like four whole games difference 320 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: with the plays being run. Like you fancy folks out there, 321 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: which team would you rather have their starting running back 322 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 1: or whatever? Obviously you know that kind of stuff really matters. Yeah, 323 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: So the uh, the the gloom and doom surrounding the Steelers, 324 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: Like if you look at just the playoff odds um 325 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: not to mention, I mean, I'm almost certain that they 326 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: don't have any metric for this because it's not quantifiable. 327 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: Was the Tomlin factor and the winning factor? Too, and 328 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: they'll tell you that. I mean Belichick and you know, 329 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: these guys that have been around, they're gonna win more 330 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: games than Joe average, you know coach. Yeah, um even 331 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl win odds odds to win the Super Bowl. 332 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: The Steelers are ahead of Miami, their head of Arizona, 333 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 1: their head of Indianapolis. Um. See, I wonder if there 334 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: was San Francisco because, like I wonder if they get 335 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: in a position to go to the playoffs and put 336 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 1: things together late, I think their chances of actually winning that. 337 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 1: I'm not saying the Seelers on superwolks, but like I 338 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,479 Speaker 1: could picture more so their ceiling might be higher if 339 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: everything goes right. I guess it's the best way to 340 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: put it. Where the Colts, like you said, are about 341 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: his averages can be and they'll probably win their division. 342 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: They'll probably a better seed than the Steelers in the 343 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: a f C went said and done. But I can't 344 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: write a story where they're the you know, hot in 345 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: the playoffs and win three games that they shouldn't on 346 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: the road and sneak into the into the super Bowl. 347 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: I'm not saying the Steelers can either, but if the 348 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: line shapes up and this thing goes to plan and 349 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: they have the number one defense, they could be a 350 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: hard out, you know, which is you know, all you 351 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: can ask for at that stage of the game. Yeah. Yeah, 352 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: so it's gonna be interesting. I think that that that's 353 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 1: a much more representative look at things and some of 354 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 1: these other things that we've looked at. So you said 355 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: the Bengals offense was like twelve, and they're defense was 356 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 1: not in the top think eleventh, leventhon offense and defense 357 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 1: there about eight and eighteenth and special teams. I mean, 358 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 1: they're they're league average across the board, pretty and the 359 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: offense a little better than average, which you would expect 360 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: and it should be. But I'm surprised that's not a 361 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: top ten offense. Defense is good, but I think it's 362 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 1: kind of an average to above average defense, you know, 363 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: just the I test the offenses they have being worse 364 00:19:52,440 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: than the Steelers Tennessee, I agree with that. Jacksonville probably, Yeah, 365 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: the Jets, Houston, Chicago, absolutely, Carolina, I don't know about 366 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: that one. They're really hard on they're pretty low on 367 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: the Panthers, Yeah, they're twenty nine and offense Seattle, I 368 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 1: think they're the Panthers thirty feet in the league overall. Yeah, Seattle, 369 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: the Giants, and m Washington did last. I agree with 370 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: all those. I could paint a picture. We're Washington's offense 371 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: is decent, though, I mean I wouldn't trade it with Steelers, 372 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,360 Speaker 1: but I think their skill guys are at some point 373 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: you gotta trust Carson Wins. I don't, but I don't. 374 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: But I mean he's had moments of goodness. But I 375 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 1: think when we were talking about the Robinsky rankings, this 376 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: is kind of where I think your your your offense 377 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,679 Speaker 1: is gonna only be as good as where your quarterback ranks. 378 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: And you know, I think you said, well, if they're 379 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: if they're twenty three at the end of the season, 380 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 1: yesterday he said, you want go fish, you want better 381 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: than that. Yeah, but I mean we think we would 382 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: have taken nineteen though. So the team's just ahead of 383 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: the Steelers offensively. Detroit. I think of their offense is better. 384 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: That line is great, like if you put that line here, 385 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 1: I think the steel Indianapolis. I guess there's a trust 386 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: factor there. The Ryan I know what I'm getting with 387 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: Ryan and Taylor Atlanta. No, I don't understand. I don't 388 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: understand that one at all. Uh. San Francisco. Yeah, they're 389 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: down on San Francisco. Yeah, I know they are, But 390 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: I would put it over the Steelers though, And in 391 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: Arizona and Cleveland comes in ahead of them, not to Cleveland, 392 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: but Hope Arizona. I mean, I get why they have 393 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: Cleveland there because because the office find them with their 394 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: ability to run the football or presumed presumed ability to 395 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: run the football. We don't know that they're gonna be 396 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 1: able to run the football because they're gonna they're gonna 397 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: face the same defenses at the Steelers face last year. 398 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: Jacoby brisseaid, is going to have to throw teams out 399 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: of the box. Oh yeah, yeah. I want to play 400 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:51,679 Speaker 1: them exactly the same. And I don't know if they 401 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: have the weapons necessarily to do. I think their weapons 402 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: are really poor, you know. Besides Zamari Cooper, their receivers 403 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: have like seventy combined catches in their career, Like I 404 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: a joke, who is gonna be their second leading receiver? 405 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,639 Speaker 1: And I mean New England's offense is better than I 406 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: That's um. One thing I do remember Aaron saying about 407 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,439 Speaker 1: the Browns though, and he said he didn't really know 408 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: how to change the numbers to make this true, but 409 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: they counted Watson as the starting quarterback who they have 410 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 1: give great, great marks too for six seventeenth of the season, 411 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: and Aaron said, but I don't expect game one to 412 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: be good, you know what I mean? And so it's 413 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 1: not half the year. But the Watson factor carried a 414 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: lot of weight to making their offense look a little 415 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: better numerically than it should because the chanon him and 416 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,239 Speaker 1: coming in being great after seven hundred days off, He's 417 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: probably not. It's probably gonna take him some time to 418 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:49,479 Speaker 1: get up to say, yeah, one, here we are. You're 419 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,719 Speaker 1: gonna come in and throw for in five games or 420 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: six games and let the end of season come out 421 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: and throw for you know, two thousand yards in the 422 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 1: right in fourteen touchdowns right in on your wife or 423 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: Johnny Unitus and say the day I mean I got. 424 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 1: The chances of that are probably pretty slam. I would think, 425 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: so interesting stuff though, siders. It's free to you. Guys, 426 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 1: got to go to the site. Absolutely check it out. 427 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: We always, uh, we always make mention to that throughout 428 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 1: the course of the season. Um subscribe to the Mike 429 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: Tomlin Game Day podcast, Steelers Digest editor Bob Labriola talks 430 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 1: with head coach Mike Tomlin about the upcoming game. New 431 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 1: episodes drop every game day. That's a must listen on 432 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: game Day. Available on the Steeler's mobile app, the I 433 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: Heart Radio app, and wherever you get your podcasts. He 434 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,439 Speaker 1: is Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lali. You're listening to 435 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,959 Speaker 1: the drive here on Steelers Nation Radio. Well, it's Thursday. 436 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 1: We got a game tonight. We'll talk about that next 437 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 1: from a fantasy a football perspective, and we'll go around 438 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 1: the league with some injury news and updates right after 439 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 1: this