Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at
Speaker 1: the Volume, Havy Thursday, everybody. I hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys are having a great week so far. We are
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Speaker 1: Continuing our power rankings today with number eighteen the Orlando Magic.
Speaker 1: And then I have four mail bag questions for the
Speaker 1: end of the show as well. You guys are the Drill.
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Speaker 1: We'll be hitting those at the end of every show.
Speaker 1: Moving forward, all right, let's talk some basketball. So recap
Speaker 1: of the offseason for the Orlando Magic. They lost Bull
Speaker 1: Bull signed with the Phoenix Suns, and then through the
Speaker 1: draft they added Anthony Black, a super versatile guard out
Speaker 1: of Arkansas. Not much of a score shot just four
Speaker 1: for thirteen in ISO situations last year. Not much of
Speaker 1: a jump shooter forty eight percent effective field goal percentage
Speaker 1: in catching shoots and forty one percent in effective field
Speaker 1: goal percentage on pull up jump shots last year. But
Speaker 1: he's pretty good at everything else. He's like a Swiss
Speaker 1: army knife at the guard position. He's got good frame
Speaker 1: for that position. He's about sixty six, I think, with
Speaker 1: about a six to eight six nine wingspan, so he's
Speaker 1: got really good length, which allows him to be an
Speaker 1: impact player on the defensive end of the floor in
Speaker 1: a way that a lot of guards can't, and also
Speaker 1: gives him the ability to see over the top of
Speaker 1: the defense and to make passes that a lot of
Speaker 1: other smaller guards can struggle with. He's really really good
Speaker 1: at everything aside from creating his own shot, and I
Speaker 1: think that instantaneously makes him a really interesting player in
Speaker 1: the future in the long run. Alongside the likes of
Speaker 1: Franz Wagner and Pala Boncaro, they also drafted Jet Howard
Speaker 1: one Howard Son out of Michigan, a scoring wing. His
Speaker 1: good shooter. He converted spot up possessions at one point
Speaker 1: one to one points per possession last year, which is excellent.
Speaker 1: Shot fifty seven percent in effective field goal percentage on
Speaker 1: catch and shoot jumpers sixty percent. When he was unguarded
Speaker 1: as a shot maker, he was forty eight percent in
Speaker 1: effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots, which
Speaker 1: is amazing for a young player, forty one percent on
Speaker 1: floaters as well. He was also a seventy first percentile
Speaker 1: pick and roll play makers er a point nine to
Speaker 1: four points per possession, something I noticed on tape this morning.
Speaker 1: Just does a really good job of using the roleman.
Speaker 1: He's methodical and patient, makes use of the roleman rolling
Speaker 1: to the basket, and because he's got a good floater
Speaker 1: and a good pull up jump shot, that makes him
Speaker 1: a dynamic score in pick and roll situations. But these
Speaker 1: are guys that are long term prospects for the Orlando Magic,
Speaker 1: right They've already got some young guys that are ready
Speaker 1: to go right now, and so they needed a veteran
Speaker 1: option to come in and provide some leadership and experience
Speaker 1: in the locker room. So they signed Joe Inglesh's very
Speaker 1: good secondary ball handler and a very good off ball player,
Speaker 1: things that I think are gonna help the Magic a lot.
Speaker 1: He was one point one to two points per possession
Speaker 1: in two hundred and fifty eight pick and rolls last
Speaker 1: year for the Bucks. That's like ridiculously good. So he's
Speaker 1: going to run second side action really good. Just does
Speaker 1: a good job of getting downhill and patiently waiting for
Speaker 1: the defense to leave an opening and making the correct pass.
Speaker 1: He also shot fifty seven percent in effective field goal
Speaker 1: percentage on catch and shoot jump shots last year and
Speaker 1: sixty nine percent effective field goal percentage on pull up
Speaker 1: jump shots last year on high volume on seventy attempts
Speaker 1: in just that small sample size with the Milwaukee Bucks. Now,
Speaker 1: it used to be a much better defender back in
Speaker 1: the days when he was with the Utah Jazz, but
Speaker 1: he will do his job within a defensive scheme, and
Speaker 1: they've got more athletes on the floor that can help
Speaker 1: cover the ground. So I love him as a veteran
Speaker 1: presence in that locker room. And I thought that was
Speaker 1: a really smart pickup. So the depth chart as of
Speaker 1: right now looks like a guard. They're gonna have Markel
Speaker 1: Foltzcary Harris, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black and Cole Anthony and
Speaker 1: at the forwards Pala Moncaro Franz Wagner, Jonathan Isaac, Joe Ingles,
Speaker 1: and Jet Howard and then at the center position Wendell
Speaker 1: Carter Junior and Mo Wagner Goga Bitadze. I also expect
Speaker 1: to see some Palo at center this season as well
Speaker 1: as a backup center, especially when guys like Mo Wagner
Speaker 1: are out with injury. You know, one of the big
Speaker 1: things that I noticed when I was watching the World
Speaker 1: Cup was that Palo actually seems to do pretty good
Speaker 1: banging with other centers and getting defensive rebounds, better than
Speaker 1: you would expect for a young ford And you know,
Speaker 1: I remember when I watched him at Summer League last
Speaker 1: year in person, that was one of the biggest things
Speaker 1: that stood out to me was just how damn big
Speaker 1: Pala Boncaro is And so I'd like to see him
Speaker 1: play a little bit of backup center this year as well.
Speaker 1: Starting lineup in all likelihood, based on what we saw
Speaker 1: last year, will be Markel Foltz at the one, Gary
Speaker 1: Harris at the two, Franz Wagner at the three, Palamoncaro
Speaker 1: at the four, and Wendell Carter Junior at the five.
Speaker 1: So on offense last year, they were not good. They
Speaker 1: were twenty sixth an offensive rating. You're gonnaee a lot
Speaker 1: bad numbers here and something to keep in mind kind
Speaker 1: of to frame this all, this is what the Orlando
Speaker 1: Magic were. I have them up at eighteen this year
Speaker 1: because I expect them to take a leap this year.
Speaker 1: You know, again, like this is this is the team
Speaker 1: that the twenty fifth best record in basketball last year,
Speaker 1: and I have them at eighteenth in my power ranking,
Speaker 1: so I'm expecting them to improve significantly. But let's take
Speaker 1: a look just to identify where their area's opportunity of
Speaker 1: opportunity are. What they were like last year, So they
Speaker 1: were twenty sixth in offensive rebounding or excuse me, offensive rating.
Speaker 1: They did not shoot the ball very well. They were
Speaker 1: twenty fifth and threes made per game twenty fourth and
Speaker 1: three point percentage twenty second in spot up efficiency, so
Speaker 1: they didn't attack closeouts very well either. Paalo was a
Speaker 1: big part of that. He shot just twenty nine percent.
Speaker 1: He shot below thirty percent from three on four attempts
Speaker 1: per game. And then as a team, they're not a
Speaker 1: good pull up jump shooting team. They were twenty seventh
Speaker 1: in efficiency on pull up jump shots with just a
Speaker 1: forty four percent effective field wal percentage. So obviously, when
Speaker 1: it comes to slow down half court offense. You need
Speaker 1: to be able to have guys that are capable of
Speaker 1: knocking down pull up jump shots when teams pack the paint,
Speaker 1: and then when you kick out to shooters on the
Speaker 1: weak side, they need to be able to make shots
Speaker 1: and attack closeouts. They're not good at those particular things,
Speaker 1: and so they're obviously going to struggle in half court offense.
Speaker 1: But they also struggled with rim finishing. They were the
Speaker 1: fifth best team at getting to the rim according to Synergy,
Speaker 1: but only the twenty fifth best team and actually converting
Speaker 1: rim attempts into points. And so as it really breaks
Speaker 1: down their team that kind of like gets a lot
Speaker 1: of shots but just can't actually finish them, and so
Speaker 1: that's going to be something as a team. As their
Speaker 1: skill development improves, as they learn to finish plays better,
Speaker 1: their offensive rating will climb. I don't expect them to
Speaker 1: jump from twenty sixth to tenth or anything this year,
Speaker 1: but I do expect them to jump into the top
Speaker 1: twenty this year. They are a very heavy pick and
Speaker 1: roll team. They like to set up in horn sets,
Speaker 1: so when they get into the half court and then
Speaker 1: they'll usually run some sort of interchange with the ball
Speaker 1: handler coming out of the corner, and then one of
Speaker 1: the big men that they have at the elbows, usually
Speaker 1: Pallo and Wendell Carter Junior. One of them will actually
Speaker 1: set a screen and roll to the basket. They've run
Speaker 1: some Spain pick and roll out of that, with Wendell
Speaker 1: Carter Junior popping to the top of the key because
Speaker 1: he can knock down threes. They're a heavy pick and
Speaker 1: roll team. They were tenth in pick and roll frequency
Speaker 1: last year. They ran about thirty seven pick and rolls
Speaker 1: per game, but they were just twenty third in pick
Speaker 1: and roll efficiency, all the same reasons we talked about earlier.
Speaker 1: Poor pull up shooting, poor spot up shooting, poor rim finishing.
Speaker 1: That's going to hurt you in a lot of cases
Speaker 1: in pick and roll. They also were the fourth worst
Speaker 1: team in the league at taking care of the basketball.
Speaker 1: Lots of classic issues that you expect with young teams,
Speaker 1: and that ended up hurting them more on the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the four, which we'll talk about in a
Speaker 1: little bit. So as a younger team, as I look
Speaker 1: at that and I see, you know, is Paalo going
Speaker 1: to shoot twenty nine percent from three? For the rest
Speaker 1: of his care No, he's gonna improve as a shooter, right.
Speaker 1: Guys like Palo in front, are they gonna improve as
Speaker 1: pull up jump shooters? Absolutely? Like right now, Markel Foltz
Speaker 1: is a complete non threat off the basketball. Is that
Speaker 1: something he's gonna improve at some point? Yeah? Probably right?
Speaker 1: Turning over the basketball, that's a classic young guy problem.
Speaker 1: These are all things that these kids should improve on
Speaker 1: as they get older. And those are again, as we
Speaker 1: look at offensive ratings, like the difference between the best
Speaker 1: team in the league and the worst team in the
Speaker 1: league in offensive rating is like, you know, it might
Speaker 1: be a dozen points per one hundred possessions, right, sometimes
Speaker 1: even less depending on the season. And so really a
Speaker 1: little bit of improvement in each of those areas could
Speaker 1: be enough to lift them from where they are to
Speaker 1: a significantly more potent offense. But what I'd like to
Speaker 1: do right now is I'd like to take a look
Speaker 1: at each of Orlando's three primary young ball handlers and
Speaker 1: how they're progressing so far. So obviously we look at
Speaker 1: Gary Harris as an off ball shooter at the two guard.
Speaker 1: Obviously we look at Wendell Carter Junior as kind of
Speaker 1: like a pick and pop big. Right, So the uh,
Speaker 1: the primary shot creators are going to be Markel, Foltz,
Speaker 1: Franz Wagner, and Pala Bonko. So let's look at what
Speaker 1: they accomplished last year. Start with Franz Wagner, one of
Speaker 1: the most exciting young forwards in the league. He averaged
Speaker 1: nineteen points, four rebounds, and four assists per game last
Speaker 1: year on an extremely impressive fifty nine percent true shooting
Speaker 1: for a second year player, that's unbelievable. He got a
Speaker 1: ton of pick and roll reps last year. He ran
Speaker 1: seven hundred and fifty eight pick and rolls, and again, like,
Speaker 1: this is why I was talking about how I expect
Speaker 1: that improvement to take place, Like, these guys are just
Speaker 1: getting tons and tons of valuable reps. Right. He averaged
Speaker 1: zero point nine to eight points per possession in those
Speaker 1: seven hundred and fifty eight pick and rolls. That's really
Speaker 1: not bad for a twenty one year old. That's above average.
Speaker 1: That's good production for a young shot creator. Classic pick
Speaker 1: and roll play making. Franz is a little bit more methodical.
Speaker 1: He likes to pick up his dribble and take long
Speaker 1: steps into the lane using his size and take that
Speaker 1: extra step to get the defense to collapse a little
Speaker 1: bit further. Excellent passer, actually making those cross court passes,
Speaker 1: great at getting to the rim and finishing there. He
Speaker 1: made three point three shots per game in the restricted
Speaker 1: area last year on sixty five percent, which is again,
Speaker 1: really really good for a young forward. And my guess
Speaker 1: is that when he gets into his mid twenties, he's
Speaker 1: going to be at about, you know, seventy percent in
Speaker 1: those situations and maybe even closer to four restricted area
Speaker 1: makes per game. He's got a ton of potential in
Speaker 1: the long run, and he's already really really good. He
Speaker 1: did struggle in ISO last year zero points seventy four
Speaker 1: points per possession, one hundred and seventeen possessions. That's something
Speaker 1: you'll have to improve. It was pretty good in the
Speaker 1: post though, one point zero five points per possession on
Speaker 1: thirty eight post ups. Went back and watched most of
Speaker 1: those this morning. Very few of them are like your
Speaker 1: traditional like Lebron James Ford post ups where he's taken
Speaker 1: a bunch of back down dribbles and manipulating the defense.
Speaker 1: Franz is just really good with deep seals and duccans
Speaker 1: and identifying when he's got a small defender on him,
Speaker 1: just getting really good deep post position and then just
Speaker 1: catching and going up and finishing right. He's also are
Speaker 1: really good at creating a big target when defenders try
Speaker 1: to front him, so a lot of times smaller defenders
Speaker 1: will front him in the post, He'll turn and seal
Speaker 1: create a nice high target so the guy can throw
Speaker 1: the over the top pass and he can catch and
Speaker 1: easily finish at the rim. One point zero five points
Speaker 1: per possession is very good for a post player, and
Speaker 1: he does that mostly on quick core, quick catching and
Speaker 1: finishing around the basket. I expect a big leap out
Speaker 1: of Franz Wagner this year, and that will be the
Speaker 1: biggest uptick and overall ability offensively for this Magic team
Speaker 1: in my opinion. To give you guys an idea, I expect.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, I think it's almost an
Speaker 1: absolute certainty that Franz Wagner is going to average twenty
Speaker 1: five and five next year. He's going to enter into
Speaker 1: that twenty five and five club. To give you an idea,
Speaker 1: only fifteen players in the entire NBA last year averaged
Speaker 1: at least twenty points, five rebounds and five assists per game.
Speaker 1: I actually think he's gonna finish closer to twenty two
Speaker 1: to six and six. I think we're gonna get a really,
Speaker 1: really impressive season out of Franz Wagner. And he just
Speaker 1: came off of yet another really impressive performance in the
Speaker 1: Feeble World Cup. He averaged seventeen points per game. He
Speaker 1: had twenty two against Team USA, forty points on forty
Speaker 1: one pick and rolls, ISOs and post ups, so static
Speaker 1: shot creation was good once again. I think he's poised
Speaker 1: for a huge year. Palo Mooncaro averaged twenty points, seven rebounds,
Speaker 1: and four assists in his rookie season. Fifty three percent
Speaker 1: for shooting. Obviously not good, but that's what you expect
Speaker 1: from a young player. Struggled in pick and roll in ISO,
Speaker 1: but was amazing in post up situations. One hundred and
Speaker 1: ninety four points on one hundred and seventy two post
Speaker 1: ups including passes. That's one point one to three points
Speaker 1: per possession. Among the thirty one players in the NBA
Speaker 1: last year that ran at least one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: post ups. Paalo finished fifth in efficiency. That's an amazing
Speaker 1: accomplishment for a young player. Starts with him just being
Speaker 1: big as all hell. He's so big that he's just
Speaker 1: a pain to deal with fighting for position on the block.
Speaker 1: From there, he's a willing passer, has a really devastating
Speaker 1: drop step. He's not a guy that likes to take
Speaker 1: shots over the top in the post right now, like
Speaker 1: he doesn't take a lot of hook shots. His turnaround
Speaker 1: jumpers just flat out inaccurate at this point. It probably
Speaker 1: will be a lot better in the long run. But
Speaker 1: what he does is he catches and he takes aggressive
Speaker 1: steps towards the baskets, a lot of up and unders,
Speaker 1: a lot of step throughs, a lot of drop steps,
Speaker 1: and aggressive moves towards the rim. He's also a willing
Speaker 1: passer in that situation. What he'll do in a lot
Speaker 1: of cases is he'll take a drop step towards the
Speaker 1: baseline and just throw a hard pump fake. You'll throw
Speaker 1: that hard pump fake to get the defense to kind
Speaker 1: of collapse on him, and then he'll throw an overhand,
Speaker 1: two hand skip pass to like a shooter in the
Speaker 1: slot on the opposite side or in the corner. He's
Speaker 1: a very very willing passer out of the post as well.
Speaker 1: To give you an idea. Despite not having a reliable
Speaker 1: hook shot and despite not having an accurate turnaround jump shot,
Speaker 1: he shot fifty one percent on his own shot attempts
Speaker 1: out of the post last year. That's a huge part
Speaker 1: of how he was such a devastating post up weapon,
Speaker 1: and I think in the long run he's going to
Speaker 1: be one of the best post players in the league,
Speaker 1: especially as he starts to pall Is over the top
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Speaker 1: Biggest thing to watch with Palo is going to be
Speaker 1: his jump shot. He was good in stan still situations.
Speaker 1: Last year. He had a fifty four percent effective field
Speaker 1: goal percentage on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots, which
Speaker 1: is solid. Obviously a great shooter. There is going to
Speaker 1: be over sixty percent, but fifty four percent is livable.
Speaker 1: That means you can't just leave him completely wide open, right,
Speaker 1: But when you disrupt him, he's gonna miss. He was
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent affective field goal percentage on catch and
Speaker 1: shoot jump shots that were guarded, and he was under
Speaker 1: forty percent on pull up jump shots. So he needs
Speaker 1: to improve his handle and impro of his jump shot
Speaker 1: to be more successful in ice own pick and roll
Speaker 1: situations and spot up situations. And then obviously it's over top,
Speaker 1: over the top shot making in the post. But I
Speaker 1: expect him to make those improvements. He's very, very young,
Speaker 1: he's only played one NBA season. Give him time. He's
Speaker 1: going to develop those things. He's also a candidate to
Speaker 1: jump into that twenty five and five group this year,
Speaker 1: although I think it's a lot less likely than Franz.
Speaker 1: The last guy I want to take a look at
Speaker 1: his Markel Foltz, former number one pick. He averaged fourteen points,
Speaker 1: four rebounds, and six assists last year on fifty six
Speaker 1: percent true shooting. It's also was top twenty in the
Speaker 1: league and steals last year with one and a half
Speaker 1: per game. The most impressive part of his offensive game
Speaker 1: last year was his pull up jump shooting. He shot
Speaker 1: forty six percent in effective field goal percentage on pull
Speaker 1: up jump shots, but he didn't. He barely took any
Speaker 1: pull up threes, so he actually shot forty four percent
Speaker 1: in like legit field goal percentage on pull up jump shots.
Speaker 1: He makes almost half of his mid range jump shots.
Speaker 1: He's got this nasty like hesitation dribble in his left
Speaker 1: hand where he just does that like hard heavy step
Speaker 1: left handed hesitation like he's gonna drive and then he'll
Speaker 1: just rise up and shoot. He actually draws a lot
Speaker 1: of fouls in that situation as well. But that deadly
Speaker 1: pull up jump shot is the genesis of most of
Speaker 1: his success as a shot creator in the NBA. Right now.
Speaker 1: Can't shoot off the catch. It's a big area of
Speaker 1: opportunity for him. He's twenty eight percent on catch and
Speaker 1: shoot threes last year. That's not good. Zero point nine
Speaker 1: points per spot up possession. That's not good. Needs to
Speaker 1: figure that out, just because on a team that's going
Speaker 1: to have the ball in Fronza's hands and poal his
Speaker 1: hands a lot, he needs to be guarded. He needs
Speaker 1: to make himself a threat. So I'd like to see
Speaker 1: him improve in catch and shoot situations or at least
Speaker 1: attacking closeouts. We've seen guys like Dwayne Wade be really
Speaker 1: bad three point shooters, but average over a point per
Speaker 1: possession in spot ups by attacking closeout successfully. Just in general,
Speaker 1: markl Foltz is gonna have to improve in that area.
Speaker 1: But the pull up jumper and his ability to get
Speaker 1: to the rim extremely well for guard if turned him
Speaker 1: into a reliable shot creator. One point zero two points
Speaker 1: per possession and pick and roll last year that's sixty
Speaker 1: fourth percentile. One point one to four points per possession
Speaker 1: in ISO that's eighty sixth percentile. He shot fifty five
Speaker 1: percent from the field in isolation situations last year. He's
Speaker 1: just a big, strong athlete who's got a physical advantage
Speaker 1: over most guards. He's going to hit hard dribbles to
Speaker 1: the basket and get his shoulder into your chest and
Speaker 1: then pull back for little floaters and jump shots. Every
Speaker 1: once in a while, I'll go to that hesitation pull
Speaker 1: up jump shot that he's making at a really high rate,
Speaker 1: and then he can get to the rim and finish
Speaker 1: really well. Two point seven makes per game in the
Speaker 1: restricted area at sixty five percent. Those are both excellent
Speaker 1: marks for a young NBA guard. And then he's also
Speaker 1: a very good passer as well. Again, the key with him.
Speaker 1: Long term is going to be whether or not he
Speaker 1: can make himself a threat off the ball to play
Speaker 1: alongside Palo in fronts. But the continuing development of those
Speaker 1: three is what makes me so excited about this team.
Speaker 1: The lineup just makes sense. You've got a stretch big
Speaker 1: and Wendell Carter. He was up over thirty six percent
Speaker 1: from three on four attempts per game last year. You
Speaker 1: know about how a stretch big can cause problems for
Speaker 1: the defense by using the rim protector and his desire
Speaker 1: to stay at the rim against them. Right, Gary Harris
Speaker 1: is a knockdown three point shooter. And then you've got
Speaker 1: these three shot creators, and all of them are very different, right,
Speaker 1: Like Paalo's like this bully ball forward who's posting people
Speaker 1: up and punishing people at the rim. Franz is this big,
Speaker 1: playmaking forward that's methodical in his downhill approach. And then
Speaker 1: you've got Markel Foltz, who's like kind of a classic
Speaker 1: athletic downhill guard. Right, So they're all very different. They
Speaker 1: all can attack in different ways. They have a ton
Speaker 1: of offensive versatility and in theory in the long run,
Speaker 1: not necessarily this year, but all five of those guys
Speaker 1: will be able to shoot, all five of those guys
Speaker 1: will be able to dribble and pass, and all five
Speaker 1: of those guys will be able to defend. And that's
Speaker 1: the recipe for championship caliber roster in the long run.
Speaker 1: But let's talk about the defensive end of the four.
Speaker 1: They were eighteenth and defensive rating last year, which is
Speaker 1: very good for a young team, but they were actually
Speaker 1: thirteenth and half court defense. They were one of the
Speaker 1: better half court defenses in the league with all that
Speaker 1: length and athleticism. Right, It was the transition situations that
Speaker 1: killed them. They gave up the fifth month most transition
Speaker 1: possessions in the league, in large part because they turned
Speaker 1: the basketball over too much. That's something that you'll see
Speaker 1: them improve with their young ball handlers getting more experience.
Speaker 1: Their half court defense was solid because they're huge and athletic.
Speaker 1: They were the fifth best team in the league at
Speaker 1: guarding the paint last year. They were a very good
Speaker 1: rebounding team. As matter of fact, the Magic gave up
Speaker 1: the third fewest offensive rebounds in the league per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions, and they gave up just two hundred and
Speaker 1: two putbacks, which was the fifth best mark in the league.
Speaker 1: So closing out defensive positions with defensive rebounds will help
Speaker 1: you a lot defensively. In protecting the paint will help
Speaker 1: you a lot defensively. Their biggest downsides where they give
Speaker 1: up the fifth most made threes per game in the NBA,
Speaker 1: so they did not guard the three point line very well,
Speaker 1: too much overhelping, not good enough in rotation, and then turnovers.
Speaker 1: Anytime you turn over the basketball, you compromise your defense
Speaker 1: by giving up transition opportunities. So if they clean up
Speaker 1: transition and they guard the three point line better, I
Speaker 1: think they have the potential to crack the top ten
Speaker 1: defensively this year. Those are all young player issues. Those
Speaker 1: are things they can fix. I think the Magic are
Speaker 1: going to finish around tenth in defensive rating this year,
Speaker 1: and I think they're going to finish close to twentieth
Speaker 1: in offense. Those improvements, going from eighteenth to tenth on
Speaker 1: defense and going from twenty sixth or twenty whatever they
Speaker 1: were on offense to twentieth in offense, I think that's
Speaker 1: going to push them closer to five hundred. I think
Speaker 1: they're going to finish around forty one and forty one
Speaker 1: or forty and forty two or forty two and forty
Speaker 1: right around that range. And I think they're going to
Speaker 1: make the play in tournament as a nine zeed or
Speaker 1: a ten zeed, kind of similar to what OKC was
Speaker 1: last year. I kind of see this as the year
Speaker 1: before the year that they become really good, and I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be a good basketball team in
Speaker 1: this particular season. All Right, we have we had to
Speaker 1: do this video earlier today because of a scheduling conflict.
Speaker 1: So I had our lead producer, Ryan, who's a legend
Speaker 1: in the game, I had him put together four fake
Speaker 1: mailbag questions for you guys based on current NBA storyline.
Speaker 1: So the first fake question from Ryan, Hey, Jason, do
Speaker 1: you think the load management mandate will make a difference?
Speaker 1: So those of you guys who heard the NBA came
Speaker 1: out with some new principles for a load management basically,
Speaker 1: if I don't know them perfectly off the top of
Speaker 1: my head, but the gist of it is nationally televised games,
Speaker 1: you can't rest more than one of your stars without
Speaker 1: facing a fine, right, And what's interesting about that is like,
Speaker 1: in that particular situation, if you're gonna rest one star,
Speaker 1: you might as well rest both, right, because like you
Speaker 1: have an infinitely smaller chance of winning the game compared
Speaker 1: to if all your stars play, And so why not
Speaker 1: buy yourself the rest if you're going to get a loss, right,
Speaker 1: And so I the question if the question is do
Speaker 1: I think load management's the new load management mandate will
Speaker 1: make a difference, I think yes and no. I think
Speaker 1: it will help on the nationally televised games. I think
Speaker 1: if you're on the fence where you've got one guy
Speaker 1: who's a little banged up and one guy who's healthy,
Speaker 1: you'll be like, let's just play everybody, right, because we
Speaker 1: we'll try to win this game, and then the league
Speaker 1: pass game two nights later will rest both of the
Speaker 1: guys in that situation, right, Like, I do think you'll
Speaker 1: see more stars play in nationally televised games, but there
Speaker 1: will still be teams that try to circumvent that, right
Speaker 1: because of the injury report, Like if it's not rest
Speaker 1: but it's actually like rehab, like I'm sitting a player
Speaker 1: because he's hurt. I think that will be a loophole
Speaker 1: that some teams will try to use to rest their stars.
Speaker 1: And then I do think teams will still rest a
Speaker 1: ton of their stars in non nationally televised games, So
Speaker 1: the overall problem with star participation I don't think will
Speaker 1: be altered all that much, but it will shift away
Speaker 1: from nationally televised games to your league pass games. And
Speaker 1: that's major value because most of the league pass games
Speaker 1: are gonna be lower profile matchups, whereas the nationally televised
Speaker 1: games are gonna be you know, good teams playing good teams.
Speaker 1: So it just makes more sense to do it that way.
Speaker 1: But to be honest, like this and that all NBA mandate, right,
Speaker 1: so like we also know that you have to play
Speaker 1: at least sixty five games to make an all NBA team.
Speaker 1: I do think that the nationally the nationally televised games
Speaker 1: rules and the sixty five games rule will help, but
Speaker 1: only a little. And the only real fix for this
Speaker 1: in the long run is urgency. You need to add
Speaker 1: urgency to the games if you I've said this before
Speaker 1: in the show, but I would shrink the season to
Speaker 1: sixty six games. If you did that, you would guarantee
Speaker 1: there's no back to backs in the schedule, and you'd
Speaker 1: guarantee that every single week you'd have at least one
Speaker 1: stretch with two consecutive days off, which that extra day
Speaker 1: off would help the players recover. Also, you've shortened the
Speaker 1: season by twenty percent, so each game would carry twenty
Speaker 1: percent more urgency. So the improved urgency and the increased
Speaker 1: star participation would be good for the league in the
Speaker 1: long run. In the short run, it would obviously cost
Speaker 1: them money, but in the long run, with the improved
Speaker 1: urgency and the improved star participation, I think it'd be
Speaker 1: great for the league. They'll never do it because they're
Speaker 1: obsessed with that short term money, and I think that's
Speaker 1: a mistake because I think urgency in the NBA is
Speaker 1: at an all time low even with this mid season tournament.
Speaker 1: So I don't think these measures are going to really
Speaker 1: solve the problem unless they make a significant change shortening
Speaker 1: the season. But it doesn't seem like that's ever gonna happen,
Speaker 1: so honestly, it's kind of hopeless. Second question from Ryan, Hey, Jason,
Speaker 1: what's taking so long on the Damian Lillard trade? Shouldn't
Speaker 1: all parties involved want this to be over? My best
Speaker 1: guess is that most of this comes down to pride
Speaker 1: from the Blazer's office. I feel like they feel like
Speaker 1: they're getting bullied into this trade. I feel like they
Speaker 1: feel like all of the public pressure is trying to
Speaker 1: tell them to take this Miami deal, which is obviously
Speaker 1: not the best deal in a vacuum. But to me,
Speaker 1: it's just it's just disrespectful to the reality of the situation. Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're right, ideally you'd be able to trade Dame to
Speaker 1: any location and get the absolute perfect return. But this
Speaker 1: is not James Harden, this is not Kyrie Irving. This
Speaker 1: is not a player who has mistreated your organization. This
Speaker 1: is not a player that is trying to take advantage
Speaker 1: of you. What's happening here is Damian Lillard, for over
Speaker 1: a decade, has given everything he can to this franchise,
Speaker 1: and now finally at a new phase when the franchise
Speaker 1: is clearly rebuilding, when he's already given them more chances
Speaker 1: than they probably deserved, He's asking for an opportunity to
Speaker 1: go where he wants to go. You owe that to him,
Speaker 1: You owe him his preferred destination. I would totally get
Speaker 1: where you're coming from if this was James Harden. Nobody,
Speaker 1: We're not going to be the next vehicle of your
Speaker 1: random trade demand to try to send you to your
Speaker 1: next super team, like, screw that. I would get that,
Speaker 1: but that's not what's going on here. What's going on
Speaker 1: here is you have a player that was incredibly loyal
Speaker 1: and devoted to this city, gave it everything he had.
Speaker 1: They're legitimately done last year, even with Damian Lillard, Jeremy Grant,
Speaker 1: Anthony Simon's on the floor. They got their butts kicked,
Speaker 1: so like they're not, it's time to move on. Dame
Speaker 1: wants to go to Miami. Send him to Miami. You
Speaker 1: owe that to him, And Okay, are you gonna get
Speaker 1: a little bit worse return, Sure, but your future is
Speaker 1: super bright. You've got Scoot Henderson, You've got Shade and Sharp,
Speaker 1: You've got Anthony Simons. It's a great time to be
Speaker 1: a Blazers fan. Just send him to Miami and move
Speaker 1: on that That's what I think needs to happen, and
Speaker 1: I'm hopeful that that will happen in the next couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. Third question, Hey, Jason, are you actually buying
Speaker 1: Lebron will play in the Olympics next summer. I buy
Speaker 1: that he wants to, but so much can change before then. Obviously,
Speaker 1: like the frame of mind, completely changes you. Uh, Like
Speaker 1: this year, Lebron was dealing with a banged right, like
Speaker 1: get a foot injury, So like, what nagging injury is
Speaker 1: he gonna be dealing with at the end of next season.
Speaker 1: That could disrupt that issue, right, I think that, you know,
Speaker 1: It's like it reminds me of when Lebron said he
Speaker 1: was gonna participate in the dunk contest. I don't doubt
Speaker 1: that he wanted to in the moment when he said that,
Speaker 1: But it's just there's a realistic you know, there's a
Speaker 1: there's a realistic side of it, which is that when
Speaker 1: we get to the point where that decision actually has
Speaker 1: to be made, it's a different frame of mind. Your
Speaker 1: body's in a different state. Chances are I would say
Speaker 1: there's probably less than a fifty percent chance that Lebron plays,
Speaker 1: not by much, I'd say it's roughly a coin flip,
Speaker 1: but I'd give it a slightly better chance that Lebron
Speaker 1: does not play in the Olympics. He actually said something similar,
Speaker 1: not quite as dramatic, but he said something similar before
Speaker 1: the Tokyo Games about how he wanted to play and
Speaker 1: then he ended up not playing. So that goes to
Speaker 1: show you how that frame of mind can change. I
Speaker 1: do think that any Olympic team led by Steph Curry,
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant, Lebron James is winning the damn tournament. Like
Speaker 1: that's for sure happening. I've talked about it. But like
Speaker 1: if you get Anthony Davis, Lebron James, Steph and you know,
Speaker 1: throw maybe it's Kawhi, maybe it's Devin Booker, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe it's Jason Tatum, whatever it is that you put
Speaker 1: in that spot, they're winning the damn thing. That's too
Speaker 1: much on ball off ball skill, that's too much size
Speaker 1: and athleticism, that's too much defensive versatility. They're gonna win
Speaker 1: the damn thing. But it's just a question of whether
Speaker 1: or not they can get that roster actually out there.
Speaker 1: All right, final question, Hey, Jason, this is a this
Speaker 1: classic Ryan. Isn't it incredible that the ultimate story of
Speaker 1: redemption has redeemed the real life career of Hayden Christensen.
Speaker 1: So Dave Filoni was in his bag last night with
Speaker 1: Ahsoka episode five. We got epic flashbacks to Anakin Skywalker
Speaker 1: and his Clone Wars armor. We got to see early
Speaker 1: Clone Wars Anakin. We got to see late Clone Wars
Speaker 1: Anakin right beforeward to sixty six, we got to see
Speaker 1: young Ahsoka in two different iterations, right, Like it was
Speaker 1: just an epic Star Wars moment. I never understood the
Speaker 1: hate of Hayden Kristensen. I understand that there were some
Speaker 1: older Star Wars fans who didn't really like him in
Speaker 1: the prequel trilogies. The prequel trilogies weren't perfect, but they
Speaker 1: were mostly good, I thought, And like, was Anakin's character
Speaker 1: a little bit annoying? Yeah, but that's what his character was. Like,
Speaker 1: you gotta remember what you were asking Hayden Christensen to
Speaker 1: do was to play an angsty teenager who didn't have
Speaker 1: control over his emotions. Like that was literally the job.
Speaker 1: And so of course that's an unlikable thing, right, Like
Speaker 1: we all were angsty teenagers when we were younger. Right,
Speaker 1: But how many of you guys now encounter a teenager
Speaker 1: in some situation and you hear them talk and you're like,
Speaker 1: oh my gosh, you like you clearly are you don't
Speaker 1: understand how the world works, Like you need to be
Speaker 1: grounded and understand that this too shall pass, and you
Speaker 1: need to be a grown up about stuff, right, like,
Speaker 1: every grown up gets a little annoyed by juvenile behavior,
Speaker 1: so obviously you were gonna be a little annoyed that
Speaker 1: Hayden Christensen was acting angsty and emotional and unstable as
Speaker 1: a teenager. That was his job. Actually, I thought Hayden
Speaker 1: Christensen did a really nice job playing Anakin in the
Speaker 1: prequel trilogy. But it is nice to see through Ahsoka
Speaker 1: and through the Obi Wan series to see him get,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of like a moment to shine again.
Speaker 1: Of like Ryan's referring to it as redemption here, we
Speaker 1: can call it whatever we want to call it, but
Speaker 1: I think it's cool to see Hayden Christensen get the
Speaker 1: court of public opinion back in his favor. I also
Speaker 1: am super super excited for episode six of Ahsoka. We're
Speaker 1: going to meet Grand Admiral Thron in another galaxy. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be dope. For those of you guys who don't
Speaker 1: know already, I do a Star Wars podcast with my
Speaker 1: buddy Luke. We actually just dropped an episode breaking down
Speaker 1: and reacting to episode five of Ahsoka. You can find
Speaker 1: that wherever you get your podcast under two Sons Podcasts
Speaker 1: or on YouTube under two Sons podcast that's Two Suns podcast.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, that is all I have for today.
Speaker 1: As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys supporting the show.
Speaker 1: We will be back tomorrow with number seventeen the volume