Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: The voting is underway. Welcome to the fastest show in politics,
Speaker 2: as the House of Representatives gathers to elect a new Speaker,
Speaker 2: with Republican Speaker nominee Jim Jordan reaching for the two
Speaker 2: hundred and seventeen votes required. Now it's unclear if he
Speaker 2: can get them. We're going to learn this together in
Speaker 2: real time, and we'll bring you behind the scenes. Coming up,
Speaker 2: Sarah Chamberlain, the president of the Republican Main Street Partnership.
Speaker 2: She has the pulse of the conference and will be
Speaker 2: with us in just a moment with analysis today from
Speaker 2: our political panel. Republican strategist Lisa Camuso Miller, former communications
Speaker 2: director at the RNC, is with us along with Democratic
Speaker 2: analyst Matt Bennett, co founder of Third Way Strategies, on
Speaker 2: the Tuesday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. It's happening as
Speaker 2: we speak. I can bring it to the floor right now, Jeff,
Speaker 2: where the voting is taking place on a new speaker
Speaker 2: of the House. We just did this, you say, less
Speaker 2: than a year ago. Yes, that is true, and here
Speaker 2: we are yet again, Jeffries. How came Jeffries skidding Democratic
Speaker 2: votes on the floor. It's Jim Jordan. We're listening for
Speaker 2: here as the Republican conference is met with a real test.
Speaker 2: Of course, two seventeen. If you're playing along in your
Speaker 2: home game, remember the rules here. Jordan needs two hundred
Speaker 2: and seventeen votes to become speaker. That means he can
Speaker 2: really only lose four Republicans. The congressman was surrounded by
Speaker 2: reporters when he got to work this morning. Jeffries quite
Speaker 2: the gaggle. Listen to this back and forth as he
Speaker 2: made his way from the door to the elevator.
Speaker 3: You need to get a.
Speaker 4: Speaker today, and we feel really good about where we're at.
Speaker 5: I'm sorry, I'm.
Speaker 6: Going over to meet.
Speaker 5: But does doesn't mean ballad after ballot?
Speaker 2: But wait, Macarthy did whatever whatever it takes to get
Speaker 2: the speaker today. What are some of the concerns that
Speaker 2: you've skilled heard.
Speaker 4: We've been picking up support every day and so it's
Speaker 4: been Uh, have you Sgain, I feel confident? Have you
Speaker 4: spoken to President Trump? Are you asking him to help
Speaker 4: you with this?
Speaker 2: Talk to the president?
Speaker 4: Talking to the president a couple of days? How first
Speaker 4: been knowing?
Speaker 6: Why?
Speaker 5: Why would you say to ken Buck that the election
Speaker 5: was stolen in twenty twenty that was not stolen?
Speaker 2: Into the elevator, he goes without answering the question from
Speaker 2: Hona Raju, a question that's been coming up repeatedly. ABC's
Speaker 2: Rachel Scott essentially asked him the same thing and got
Speaker 2: the same response.
Speaker 5: Earlier today, ken Buck said, it's important for the Republican
Speaker 5: Speaker of the House to acknowledge that Donald Trump lost
Speaker 5: the election?
Speaker 1: Do you acknowledge that.
Speaker 2: Silence on that one? As we listen now to the
Speaker 2: voting taking place live on the House, I work some
Speaker 2: concerns about January sixth, as presented by Liz Cheney. We've
Speaker 2: talked about that on this broadcast. Some concerns as well
Speaker 2: about his exposure to a sexual assault scandal while spending
Speaker 2: time working as a wrestling coach at the university level. Here,
Speaker 2: but the nominations have taken place, the names are on
Speaker 2: the floor here. We heard from Elis Daphonic on behalf
Speaker 2: of Congressman Jim Jordan a short time ago.
Speaker 7: Whether on the wrestling matt or in the committee room,
Speaker 7: Jim Jordan is strategic, scrappy, tough and principled. He is
Speaker 7: a mentor, a worker, and above all, he is a fighter.
Speaker 7: And the American people know, we know that Jim Jordan
Speaker 7: is a winner. On behalf of the American people got a.
Speaker 2: Big round of applause at the end of her speech,
Speaker 2: as did Pete Aglar, who entered the name of Hakeen Jeffries.
Speaker 2: And now we're going through the process here that the
Speaker 2: house is full as I see Nancy Pelosi and Standie
Speaker 2: Layer sitting right nearby Hakim Jeffries crane. But again, it's
Speaker 2: not the Democrats that we're watching today, and that's why
Speaker 2: I'm glad to say Sarah Chamberlain is with us, the
Speaker 2: President's CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, who's been
Speaker 2: prescient in her analysis year, was the only insider in
Speaker 2: Washington who assured us there would be no government shutdown,
Speaker 2: and now she's back to talk about the race for
Speaker 2: speaker here, one that she's been involved in her ninety
Speaker 2: or so. Members of the Partnership will have a pivotal
Speaker 2: role in electing the next speaker. And that's why Sarah
Speaker 2: is in the room for so many of these important conversations.
Speaker 2: It's great to have you back, Sarah. Your initial take today,
Speaker 2: whether it's one or fifteen rounds, is Jim Jordan going
Speaker 2: to be the next speaker.
Speaker 3: I don't know yet, be honest. He's not going to
Speaker 3: give them the first round. He may get it on
Speaker 3: the fifth or sixth round. I also don't think that
Speaker 3: the members are going to go fifteen rounds, but Jim
Speaker 3: Jordan can't get it after the third or fourth round.
Speaker 3: I think that they're going to move in a different direction.
Speaker 3: Most of the Republican Main Street Partnership members are voting
Speaker 3: for Jim Jordan, though the couple that have not so
Speaker 3: far are both main Street members and they voted for McCarthy.
Speaker 3: So it's going to be an interesting dynamic.
Speaker 6: I tell you.
Speaker 3: The one thing that they all agree on is we
Speaker 3: need a Speaker of the House, and we need one soon.
Speaker 3: This is ridiculous. The unrest, they're tired of it, Israel
Speaker 3: that war, and here we are we can't get a speaker.
Speaker 3: So interesting times here in Washington.
Speaker 2: Thank God, that's for sure. Just think of the stuff
Speaker 2: we've talked about in the short time that we've been
Speaker 2: doing this together. Sarah Political called it a cascade of caving,
Speaker 2: which I thought was pretty clever, as we saw Mike Rodgers,
Speaker 2: Ken Calvert, Mark Molinaro, a lot of names that we
Speaker 2: didn't expect to vote for. Jim Jordan fall into his
Speaker 2: column here, and I wonder what you make of the
Speaker 2: sort of speed with which that took place over the
Speaker 2: last twenty four to forty eight hours. Was it just
Speaker 2: effective whipping over the weekend from Jim Jordan or just
Speaker 2: an eagerness to get this done.
Speaker 3: I think it's a combination of three things. They're eager
Speaker 3: to get this done, Jordan has a great whipped operation.
Speaker 3: And then the third thing is I really want to
Speaker 3: emphasize Jim Jordan has been reaching out to the Republican
Speaker 3: Main Street Partnership members for months, long before McCarthy was
Speaker 3: ever recalled. So he has been building a relationship with
Speaker 3: these members, never dreaming I'm sure that he would be
Speaker 3: in this position today. Did neither vote for Speaker of
Speaker 3: the House.
Speaker 2: Well, so is this a turning over a new leaf
Speaker 2: for him? Is this a different Jim Jordan than we thought?
Speaker 2: We knew.
Speaker 3: I think he's trying to be I really do think
Speaker 3: he's trying to change and really become a leader that
Speaker 3: can lead the entire delegation. Though I know the third
Speaker 3: member just voted no for him, just voted for Lee's Eldam,
Speaker 3: so clearly that he's not going to get it in
Speaker 3: the first round. Ken Buck is not there. But but
Speaker 3: what Jim Jordan is trying to do, and that's why
Speaker 3: he's talking to the main Street members who live in
Speaker 3: Biden districts seventeen of the eighteen that live in those
Speaker 3: districts and main Street members and he's reaching out, you know,
Speaker 3: what do you need? And again he's been doing this
Speaker 3: for months and months and months. This is not a
Speaker 3: new thing. So I think Jim Jordan is working to
Speaker 3: see what the entire Republican House needs to maintain the majority.
Speaker 2: As you just heard from Sarah, doesn't look like it's
Speaker 2: going to happen here for Jim Jordan. Yeah, fallon, it's
Speaker 2: not listening live now on the House floor, Jordan. But
Speaker 2: you knew that was going to happen, Sarah. You said
Speaker 2: that most people didn't expect this to be done in
Speaker 2: the first round. The question is you know, can you
Speaker 2: go the distance and to your point, will there be
Speaker 2: patients after say around three for another Jim Jordan vote.
Speaker 3: I really don't see this going like it did for
Speaker 3: Kevin into fourteen fifteen rounds. I think that the members
Speaker 3: want to get a speaker. If it's Jim Jordan, fine,
Speaker 3: If it's not, they move on to somebody else, you know,
Speaker 3: maybe it's a McHenry. I don't know. I don't think
Speaker 3: there's a plan, to be honest with you, believe it
Speaker 3: or not. They just want to get this behind them
Speaker 3: in the best way they can. Clearly right now in
Speaker 3: this vote, he is not going to get He's not
Speaker 3: going to become the speaker.
Speaker 2: Yeah, how about that? As we learn live with Sarah Chamberlain,
Speaker 2: if you're just joining us, Jim Jordan does not make
Speaker 2: the first round here with a live vote still underway
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, Sarah, what do you make of the
Speaker 2: conversation around January sixth? And I ask you that specifically
Speaker 2: through the view of Main Street Partnership members who are
Speaker 2: taking a certain approach to politics and are not obviously
Speaker 2: in the MAGA camp. And there's been a lot of
Speaker 2: talk from Liz Cheney and others, a lot of reporters
Speaker 2: who are asking questions about Jim Jordan's role on January sixth,
Speaker 2: and we're hearing a lot of forgiveness, frankly from establishment Republicans.
Speaker 2: Are you as.
Speaker 3: Well, Yes, I am, and because they do think he
Speaker 3: has changed from that day and that time, and he's
Speaker 3: become much more willing to talk to all the members.
Speaker 3: He's not quite as much freedom Caucus as he was
Speaker 3: on that day. And you can see that with his
Speaker 3: support of Kevin. I mean, he stood up hard and
Speaker 3: fast to support Kevin McCarthy in his during his entire
Speaker 3: speaker Speaker's race, and then while he was speaker, and
Speaker 3: then frankly, he tried very hard to save him. He worked,
Speaker 3: he tried to persuade Matt Gates and the others uh
Speaker 3: not to vote against against McCarthy. So he's been doing
Speaker 3: a lot and that is why you're seeing him get
Speaker 3: more votes and maybe some people thought he would. But
Speaker 3: you're also seeing some members that you know, for reasons,
Speaker 3: onto themselves for different reasons. They they have not voted
Speaker 3: for him today. They're voting for other people.
Speaker 2: Got a couple of McCarthy's, including Representative Bacon that may
Speaker 2: not be a surprise to you. Are you still holding
Speaker 2: out and it sounds like you are getting back to
Speaker 2: where we started for another name to emerge. If this
Speaker 2: doesn't coalesce today.
Speaker 3: Well we have to. If Jim Jordan cannot get to speaker,
Speaker 3: and again I don't know, maybe in the third or
Speaker 3: fourth round he can, but if he can't, we have
Speaker 3: to pivot to the next option. And you know what
Speaker 3: that option is. I don't know. It could be McHenry
Speaker 3: if he'll do it for sixty days. I don't see.
Speaker 3: I don't really see us working with the Democrats to
Speaker 3: try to really forge a bipartisanship. I think when the
Speaker 3: Democrats didn't step up and help Kevin a couple of
Speaker 3: weeks ago, there was a lot of damage done between
Speaker 3: the two parties, more so than was there prior. So
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a mess. It really is a mess.
Speaker 3: It's the only thing I can say. And hopefully we'll
Speaker 3: get this behind us soon one way or another.
Speaker 2: Well, your view is important to us because you know
Speaker 2: what a mess looks like here, and you know what
Speaker 2: regular order looks like. Sarah I was compelled to hear
Speaker 2: from Alexandria Acossio Cortes on CNN last evening. She was
Speaker 2: talking about the New York delegation New York moderate Republicans
Speaker 2: who she doesn't think will be able to to vote
Speaker 2: for Jim Jordan. Here's how she put.
Speaker 6: It, We'll see if individuals like Mike Lawler or Mark Moulenaro,
Speaker 6: who represent New Yorkers in Hudson Valley, the Catskills Westchester County,
Speaker 6: will actually vote to install a man who voted to
Speaker 6: overturn the United States's election and who supports a national
Speaker 6: abortion ban to be Speaker of the House and second
Speaker 6: in line to the presidency.
Speaker 2: What do you think, Sarah, Can they bring a vote
Speaker 2: like that home?
Speaker 3: So Mark has fled. Mark Marlano is going to go. Yes,
Speaker 3: we're not to the MS yet, but every indication is
Speaker 3: that he is voting for Jim Jordan. Clearly he thinks
Speaker 3: in his district he can take that vote and survive it.
Speaker 3: You know, DS Misito is already voted, and he did
Speaker 3: not vote. He voted for Leezelden. I understand Mike Lawler
Speaker 3: is not voting for Jordan either. So New York will
Speaker 3: will separate, you know New York's I'm from New York
Speaker 3: it is certainly an interesting state, and they all have
Speaker 3: very much their own opinions and strong opinions, and they're
Speaker 3: going to do what they think is best for their districts.
Speaker 2: Appropriations Chair Kate Granger votes for Steve Scalise. Are these
Speaker 2: just protest votes or are their hopes that a Scalisa
Speaker 2: McCarthy comes back into the fold.
Speaker 3: Sarah, Well, I would tell you I hear overwhelmingly from
Speaker 3: our members that they really wish McCart they would run again.
Speaker 3: They love him, they think it's unfair, and they would
Speaker 3: love to have him go. I don't think that's going
Speaker 3: to be an option, but here we are.
Speaker 2: Sounds like you've got your eyes on Patrick McHenry if
Speaker 2: we have to go.
Speaker 3: There, that he'll be the next best option, and he'd
Speaker 3: be a very good option if if, and it's a
Speaker 3: big if still, if we have to go there.
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could join us in the throes
Speaker 2: of this vote. Sarah. It's good to see you, and
Speaker 2: thank you as always for the insights. Sarah Chamberlain, Republican
Speaker 2: main Street Partnership President and CEO. She knows, as we've
Speaker 2: learned live on the air. Here together, let's assemble the
Speaker 2: panel so they can each take a swing at this. Well,
Speaker 2: we have time with Matt Bennett, executive vice president for
Speaker 2: public Affairs at Third Way, and Lisa Kamussa Miller is
Speaker 2: along today, reset public affairs partner and of course former
Speaker 2: communications director at the RNC. It's great to have you
Speaker 2: both here on an important data and Lisa, I can
Speaker 2: only imagine what's going through your mind right now. With
Speaker 2: Jim Jordan on the cusp of becoming speaker, do you
Speaker 2: think he can do this?
Speaker 8: Not on the first ballot seven votes already against him
Speaker 8: for a variety of folks. I love Sarah's analysis. She's
Speaker 8: always a star and she always has her finger on
Speaker 8: the pulse of how things are going. I do think
Speaker 8: she's right. I think that we're probably not going to
Speaker 8: see fifteen ballots, which thank goodness for that. But it's
Speaker 8: also a demonstration of the American people that we as
Speaker 8: a party still do not have a consensus, a consensus
Speaker 8: candidate and someone that can that can lead the conference
Speaker 8: in governance, and that's so critically important right now. So
Speaker 8: it will be interesting to see. But obviously we're going
Speaker 8: for another ballot for sure.
Speaker 2: No votes for Jim Jordan, Matt, what do you think
Speaker 2: about the way this is going? What are we learning
Speaker 2: from this first round when everyone said he likely would
Speaker 2: not be confirmed as a speaker.
Speaker 4: Right, I mean, I think this is not a surprise
Speaker 4: at least in this round. What is it shock an
Speaker 4: enormous surprise is that we're doing this at all. I mean,
Speaker 4: the idea that Jim Jordan might become the Speaker of
Speaker 4: the House would have been laughable about two weeks ago,
Speaker 4: and it's still profoundly shocking. I mean, this guy is
Speaker 4: far far too radical to serve in any leadership post,
Speaker 4: not least third in line to the presidency. And the
Speaker 4: guy who's going to have to negotiate on behalf of
Speaker 4: the House with President Biden with the Senate, this is
Speaker 4: not somebody who has any of those relationships, and for
Speaker 4: whom his own colleagues on the Republican side have enormous contempt.
Speaker 4: I mean, former Speaker Bainer said that he was a
Speaker 4: legislative terrorist. So this should not be happening at all,
Speaker 4: and the fact that it's close to happening is truly shocking.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I guess it's just a question of whether
Speaker 2: it does happen, but we'll find this out together as
Speaker 2: we move forward. Here with our panel, Matt Bennett and
Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Thanks for
Speaker 2: joining us on the fastest show in politics. We've got
Speaker 2: a lot to cover here still, Matt and Lisa, stay
Speaker 2: with us as we keep our eye on the floor
Speaker 2: of the House. Jim Jordan fails in the first round
Speaker 2: of voting, but he could still be speaker. This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: Jim Jordan will not be Speaker of the House, not
Speaker 2: on the first round. You see what I did there,
Speaker 2: just learned. As the voting takes place, they're counting them
Speaker 2: right now. Now come for the roll call here. This is
Speaker 2: live sound from the House floor. He does not have
Speaker 2: the votes to get this done, and that's not a
Speaker 2: surprise to anybody. No one thought Jim Jordan was going
Speaker 2: to close this down on the first round, remembering Kevin
Speaker 2: McCarthy took fifteen, and no one thinks that's going to
Speaker 2: happen either. But we're going to stay close to this
Speaker 2: because it does appear that there will be a second
Speaker 2: vote to follow, and it might be earlier than we thought.
Speaker 2: We'll let you know how this goes. It's kind of
Speaker 2: moving under our feet. All of this happening as we
Speaker 2: speak in Washington, which is what we promise you here
Speaker 2: McGarvey first draft of history. We'll just learn it together
Speaker 2: as we assemble our panel. Matt Bennett from Third Way,
Speaker 2: Lisa Camusa Miller at Reset Public Affairs with us here
Speaker 2: to bring both sides of the conversation as we look
Speaker 2: at Congressman Brian's style with the tally before the speaker's rostrum.
Speaker 2: This is going to take them a little bit here, Lisa, obviously,
Speaker 2: But now that we know Jim Jordan will not be
Speaker 2: speaker on the first round, I wonder what you see
Speaker 2: happening through the course of the day here. They clearly
Speaker 2: don't want to repeat what happened in January, and based
Speaker 2: on what we heard from Sarah Chamberlain patients will run
Speaker 2: very thin after a second or third round here. Do
Speaker 2: you see it that way in terms of his window
Speaker 2: of opportunity.
Speaker 8: I definitely do. I mean, there's already so much dissatisfaction
Speaker 8: with him as a candidate. As much as he's been
Speaker 8: doing all the retail politics he can, talking to members
Speaker 8: and finding ways to be supportive of them and their needs,
Speaker 8: I think that there's just a general distrust of him
Speaker 8: as a candidate, so it will be interesting to see
Speaker 8: if he can get them over the line.
Speaker 9: The other thing too, to Joe to.
Speaker 8: Watch that I've been watching as a campaign kid for
Speaker 8: as long as I can remember, is that Jim Jordan
Speaker 8: is not a fundraiser. He is not someone who raises money.
Speaker 8: He's not someone who meets the threshold for his dues
Speaker 8: for the NRCC. If that's the case and we elect
Speaker 8: a speaker that's not someone who's a party builder who
Speaker 8: does everything they can to get others elected, that too,
Speaker 8: is a change of course for the Republican Party. And
Speaker 8: that's also of concern because if he's not following the rules,
Speaker 8: then who who else? Who needs to Then?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt, we've got now twelve votes. If my count
Speaker 2: is right against Jim Jordan. Obviously he's got more than
Speaker 2: just the sort of eight troublemakers who ousted Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 2: to worry about here. If that number keeps climbing, how
Speaker 2: quickly does patients run out? We're undo another name.
Speaker 4: Really, that's entirely up to the Republicans, and it's not
Speaker 4: something I have great visibility to. I would tell you
Speaker 4: that the Democrats will do this all day long. Not
Speaker 4: a single Democrat is ever going to vote for Jim
Speaker 4: Jordan under any circumstances. I mean, the sun could burn
Speaker 4: out before that happens. So this is really a question
Speaker 4: of the Republicans are going to change course.
Speaker 2: We've got a big old round of applause, standing ovation
Speaker 2: on the House floor. Matt Hakeim Jeffreys wins his conference
Speaker 2: on the first round. Are we going to do this
Speaker 2: again like January two hundred and twelve, two hundred and twelve,
Speaker 2: two hundred and twelve, As Katherine Clark said.
Speaker 4: Yes, as long as the candidate in question is Jim Jordan.
Speaker 4: I think if Republicans come to their senses and they
Speaker 4: nominate somebody else, another Republican to be sure that's going
Speaker 4: to be a Republican speaker. They have the majority, but
Speaker 4: if they nominate you know, Don Bacon or somebody sensible,
Speaker 4: then it is conceivable that Democrats might actually vote for
Speaker 4: them or a vote present, so that really can more
Speaker 4: easily get to a majority.
Speaker 2: Do we see that happening, Lisa? Does that person exist?
Speaker 8: Oh?
Speaker 9: I don't know.
Speaker 8: I mean, I like the optimism for sure from Matt,
Speaker 8: but I'm not sure that that's right because I think
Speaker 8: that so far the Democratic Caucus has looked incredibly strong,
Speaker 8: I mean, bulletproof when it comes to this vote, and
Speaker 8: really in just about everything they do. And so why
Speaker 8: I couldn't understand for any candidate other than a candidate
Speaker 8: that does not exist, that they would change their vote
Speaker 8: in either vote present or vote in favor of a
Speaker 8: Republican candidate. I think that they're better off sticking with
Speaker 8: Hakeem Jeffries. They think he's the best possible leader for
Speaker 8: the job. Anyway, I'd be surprised if they changed course.
Speaker 8: But I'd also be surprised that we pick a candidate
Speaker 8: that was more like a Don Bacon. I have a
Speaker 8: feeling that if it's not Jim Jordan, I think Sarah
Speaker 8: Chamberlin is onto something.
Speaker 9: It is certainly something we've been.
Speaker 8: Predicting on this show and other places for months now,
Speaker 8: is that McHenry very well could be he could fall
Speaker 8: over backwards into this position, but mostly because he's stirring
Speaker 8: right now in that role and people see him more
Speaker 8: and more as a leader that they can work with.
Speaker 2: It looked like Jim Jordan was making progress winning folks
Speaker 2: over on the matter of Ukraine. There Goes, there go man.
Speaker 2: Another round of applause.
Speaker 9: For Kim Jeffers Jeffries.
Speaker 2: Debbie Dingle was asked about this. I want you to
Speaker 2: hear what she said. This is of course a Democrat
Speaker 2: from Michigan close to the leadership on the matter of
Speaker 2: Ukraine funding and whether Jim Jordan will embrace that along
Speaker 2: with supplemental funding for Israel, for instance. It's been a
Speaker 2: big sticking point with a lot of Republicans in the House,
Speaker 2: and it's interesting to see where Jim Jordan stands here.
Speaker 2: Here's Debbie Dingle from earlier today.
Speaker 10: Obviously a lot of people worry about that, but I
Speaker 10: talked to some Republicans who say that he's going to
Speaker 10: make sure that it's there. We know the Republicans in
Speaker 10: the Senate believe that it needs to be there, and
Speaker 10: I'm not going to take the lowest position and go
Speaker 10: all the world is done this crisis, this crisis. I'm
Speaker 10: going to work together to do what's with my colleagues
Speaker 10: on both sides of the file.
Speaker 2: So, Matt Bennett, do your worst fears about Jim Jordan
Speaker 2: include a defunding, if you will, of the war effort
Speaker 2: in Ukraine? Or do you think Jim Jordan offers that
Speaker 2: to become the next speaker?
Speaker 4: You know, I don't know. He certainly doesn't want to
Speaker 4: fund Ukraine. If it was up for him, he wouldn't,
Speaker 4: which is very scary, But it's possible that he offered
Speaker 4: that as a bargainingship in trying to win this vote. However,
Speaker 4: the Ukraine situation is not going to go away anytime soon.
Speaker 4: They're in day six hundred of this war. It's not
Speaker 4: going to end quickly, and it's very likely that the
Speaker 4: Body Remistration is going to have to come back to
Speaker 4: the Hill for more Ukraine money at some point, and
Speaker 4: at that point his bargaining chips will be gone. So
Speaker 4: I really worry about that, But I worry more that
Speaker 4: Jim Jordan has no interest in having the government function
Speaker 4: as it should. I mean, we have planes almost knocking
Speaker 4: into each other, we have FAA needing money. This government
Speaker 4: is vitally important. And Jordan was the main driver behind
Speaker 4: the shutdown under Trump, and you can certainly see him
Speaker 4: doing that again as speaker.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Blueberg Intelligence is running odds on this, Lisa, increasing
Speaker 2: the odds to eighty percent of a government shutdown if
Speaker 2: a man named Jim Jordan becomes speaker? Do you agree
Speaker 2: with that? And if sol why.
Speaker 8: I would be surprised if that percentage adjusted very much
Speaker 8: for anybody that becomes the speaker. And I say this
Speaker 8: because the clock is running out. I mean two weeks
Speaker 8: ago we had forty five days. Now we have what
Speaker 8: thirty days left to go, and we have how many
Speaker 8: appropriations bills to get through and get to the Senate.
Speaker 2: Pass a CR or that he would not work with
Speaker 2: the White House or both.
Speaker 8: He saw the way the CR went for McCarthy. I
Speaker 8: don't think he would do that again. I think he's
Speaker 8: going to try to get it done. He's going to
Speaker 8: try to do each individual bill as the Conference is
Speaker 8: asking him to.
Speaker 9: So if that's the case, yeah, I really feel like it.
Speaker 9: I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but it does feel
Speaker 9: that way.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's even a factor for the
Speaker 2: Republicans voting right now, Matt, But do you see the
Speaker 2: odds of a shutdown increasing if it is in fact
Speaker 2: Speaker Jordan.
Speaker 4: Jeff Oh, without a doubt. I mean, Jordan is the
Speaker 4: hardest line member you can get. There is no harder line.
Speaker 4: He's all the way to one hundred out of one hundred.
Speaker 4: So yeah, But I do think this is right, that
Speaker 4: the odds of a shutdown are high regardless of who
Speaker 4: they pick, presuming that the Speaker ends up being a Republican,
Speaker 4: which it will, I do think. I think that without
Speaker 4: much time to negotiate, it's going to be very hard
Speaker 4: to get this across the finish line. The question is
Speaker 4: what do Republicans want? You know, I think the President
Speaker 4: is open to listening to things, even though they cut
Speaker 4: a deal with him and then you know, promptly abdicated
Speaker 4: on that deal. But they seem only to want to
Speaker 4: cause chaos and destruction, and that is not a thing
Speaker 4: that Joe Biden is going to be able to give them.
Speaker 2: You do wonder in our remaining moment here at Lisa,
Speaker 2: can you just picture in your head, close your eyes,
Speaker 2: picture in your head that's still photo from the pool
Speaker 2: spray in the Oval office with Jim Jordan sitting on
Speaker 2: the couch or maybe on the chair next to the
Speaker 2: fireplace with Joe Biden. Is that something that's within the
Speaker 2: realm of possibility.
Speaker 9: Joe Biden maybe the last.
Speaker 8: Member of the legislature now president who is someone that
Speaker 8: would cross the aisle even for the most egregious and difficult.
Speaker 8: So I do think that that will happen if Jim
Speaker 8: Jordan becomes the Speaker, that the President will work with
Speaker 8: him to the ability that he can. The other question is,
Speaker 8: will Jim Jordan work with the president?
Speaker 9: Really?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 2: Right, I can only imagine what would happen in that
Speaker 2: pool spray. Really glad to have Matt Bennett and Lisa
Speaker 2: Kumuso Miller with us as we learn in real time,
Speaker 2: share the future the leadership in the House of Representatives.
Speaker 2: Jim Jordan has lost the first round of voting. We're
Speaker 2: preparing for a second.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Dot com the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast.
Speaker 2: With some real news, Hayley, we thought we might be
Speaker 2: walking through this still at this point. But Jim Jordan
Speaker 2: has failed, yes in his quest to be speaker in
Speaker 2: the first round. There's going to be a second. But
Speaker 2: a lot of folks are kind of surprised by the
Speaker 2: number of I won't say no votes, but others. We
Speaker 2: get twenty Yeah, members of the Republican Conference picking somewhere
Speaker 2: else for speaker.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 11: We knew he likely wasn't going to get it on
Speaker 11: the first round because there were a handful of Republicans
Speaker 11: who said they were no votes in Jordan. What we got, though,
Speaker 11: was not a handful, Joe. It was a sizeable amount
Speaker 11: of the Republican Conference, twenty individuals who decided not to
Speaker 11: vote for him. He has sixteen votes realistically that he's
Speaker 11: going to need to flip if he wants to get
Speaker 11: the gavel. And the question now is A can he
Speaker 11: do that? And B what does he need to give
Speaker 11: up to do it? If he can indeed pull that off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty is a lot at this point. It is
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy. Producer James dug this up lost nineteen on
Speaker 2: his first round in January.
Speaker 9: Yeah, he got two hundred one, and we know that.
Speaker 2: Went fifteen rounds. No one thinks this is going fifteen.
Speaker 2: You get to the third round here and patients will
Speaker 2: likely run pretty thin.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 11: It becomes a question though, of the path forward, because
Speaker 11: if Jordan's still not there after three rounds, is it
Speaker 11: time for a more serious conversation about expanding the powers
Speaker 11: of speaker pro ten Patrick mc arthy? Is it time
Speaker 11: to try to coalesce around someone new. It's very unclear
Speaker 11: what the conference would do at that point, and frankly,
Speaker 11: what Jim Jordan himself would do. How many rounds does
Speaker 11: he want to have to sit.
Speaker 2: Through fascinating a speaker McCarthy former Speaker McCarthy, by that.
Speaker 11: Speaker emeritis Kevin McCarthy now the congressman from California.
Speaker 2: He said it was the Democrat's fault. Is that right?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 2: Okay, we don't even need to play it. I guess
Speaker 2: he got a couple of votes. Steve Scale's got a
Speaker 2: couple of votes. Lee Zelden got a couple of votes. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and that's how we got to.
Speaker 11: Twenty Yeah, three for Zelden, six for McCarthy, seven for Scalise,
Speaker 11: and then there were some others thrown in there as well,
Speaker 11: Emma Cole, Massey, Garcia. So it becomes a question, Joe,
Speaker 11: of if any of those members who voted for that
Speaker 11: group of individuals would vote for Jordan on the next ballot,
Speaker 11: and frankly, if any that voted for Jordan on the
Speaker 11: first ballot would also vote for him on the second.
Speaker 11: Just a lot of questions, more questions than answers.
Speaker 2: Everyone knew that we're going to be protest fosts. Just
Speaker 2: get it out of your system on the first round.
Speaker 2: We're really not going to know where we stand until
Speaker 2: this is a second round, would be my.
Speaker 11: Thought on this, and we don't know when that will be.
Speaker 2: You might agree, but we have that could be six
Speaker 2: o'clock this evening, right, we know what they're going to
Speaker 2: try to do it today, we're waiting for timing. Do
Speaker 2: you know something I don't know?
Speaker 11: I know, I don't know anything affirmative, But Joe, when
Speaker 11: we thought there might be another vote this evening, I
Speaker 11: think was before Jordan knew what kind of margin realistically
Speaker 11: he was going to fail by yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So look, anything could happen. We've been telling you
Speaker 2: guys that, and that's going to remain the case as
Speaker 2: we bring in Kyle Condick from Sabada's Crystal Ball, the
Speaker 2: managing editor and author of the Long Red Thread is
Speaker 2: with us from beautiful University of Virginia outside of the
Speaker 2: reach here of the swamp. Kyle, it's good to see you.
Speaker 2: What do you think twenty votes not for Jim Jordan
Speaker 2: tells you what about his chances of becoming speaker, But.
Speaker 5: It seems kind of paralleous for Jordan. And you know,
Speaker 5: one thing is it doesn't seem like he and his
Speaker 5: allies did a great job of expectation setting, because there
Speaker 5: was reporting advance of this vote that maybe they were
Speaker 5: thinking there'd be like eight or ten holdouts, and it
Speaker 5: turns out there was double that twenty. You know, not
Speaker 5: that certainly not the first time, and norm will be
Speaker 5: the last time that the you know, the vote counting
Speaker 5: may not be entirely up to snuff on the in
Speaker 5: the House Republican side, and so you know, you just
Speaker 5: wonder if there's going to be another vote where Jordan
Speaker 5: is the main candidate, or if it's going to splinter.
Speaker 5: You know, there was some talk in the past few
Speaker 5: days that Mike Johnson from Louisiana, who is certainly not
Speaker 5: a household name or anything, but that he might throw
Speaker 5: his hat in the ring if Jordan falls out. You know,
Speaker 5: I don't know where this thing is going at this point,
Speaker 5: but I think that you know, twenty no votes, that
Speaker 5: to me, you know, again, I think that's a it's
Speaker 5: a fairly bad outcome for Jordan. On the first vote.
Speaker 5: We knew that he wasn't going to get it, but again,
Speaker 5: he's not necessarily within just twisting a few arms and
Speaker 5: getting there, and he's to twist, you know what, fifteen
Speaker 5: arms to get there. And there's some there's been some
Speaker 5: report there were some people that were going to vote
Speaker 5: for Jordan on the first ball but might not vote
Speaker 5: for on the second. So who knows.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, we could see a whole bunch of
Speaker 11: things slipping around by the time we get to a
Speaker 11: second round, whenever that comes, Kyle. But when we talk
Speaker 11: about the composition of these twenty individuals who voted against Jordan,
Speaker 11: a number of them are those really vulnerable Republicans, the
Speaker 11: ones who represent districts that Biden won in twenty twenty.
Speaker 11: Do you think any of them actually are ever going
Speaker 11: to be able to say, yes, I vote Jim Jordan
Speaker 11: for Speaker of the House.
Speaker 5: I think it's going to be a hard ask because
Speaker 5: you know, they'd be committing to, you know, a really
Speaker 5: ideologically conservative speaker, and they probably would also be committing
Speaker 5: to more fights down the line with the Democratic controlled
Speaker 5: Senate and the Democratic controlled White House over you know,
Speaker 5: future shutdown. And you know, I don't think these things
Speaker 5: matter all that much as we're talking now about the
Speaker 5: next election, but like, what if the House is just
Speaker 5: like a disaster zone for the next twelve months, you know,
Speaker 5: does does there start to be sort of accumulating political baggage?
Speaker 5: You know, again, I still don't necessarily think so. I
Speaker 5: think the presidential election really sets the tone for for
Speaker 5: the election next year. But you know, to the there
Speaker 5: are only certain things that these House members can control,
Speaker 5: and one of them is who do they support for speaker?
Speaker 5: And you know, you did have a number, not certainly
Speaker 5: not all of the most vulnerable House Republicans not vote
Speaker 5: for for Jordan, you know, Lori Chavez Dreamer of Oregon,
Speaker 5: Mike Lawler of New York, who's been one of the
Speaker 5: more prominent House Republicans and someone who's in a Biden
Speaker 5: district beat Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair shan Patrick muloney
Speaker 5: in a close race last year Don Bacon from Nebraska too.
Speaker 5: That's another you know, Biden one district. In fact, that
Speaker 5: district is actually worth an electro vote because that's how
Speaker 5: Nebraska does it. So but you know, those were only
Speaker 5: a handful of the members who didn't vote for Jordan.
Speaker 5: There also were some other folks who aren't from particularly
Speaker 5: competitive districts who didn't vote for Jordan. So it was
Speaker 5: a it was a mixed bag amongst the twenty houldouts
Speaker 5: on Jordan.
Speaker 2: Well, so when you pull out the lens a little
Speaker 2: bit there with all of that, said Kyle, looking at,
Speaker 2: for instance, a congressman like Mike Lawler, how many hard
Speaker 2: knows how many never Jordan are there? Do we have
Speaker 2: a sense of that?
Speaker 5: I don't know, although it certainly seems like it's more
Speaker 5: than enough to prevent Jordan from being speaker, at least
Speaker 5: as we're sitting here now. Again, if it was like
Speaker 5: eight to ten no votes, you could say, hey, well
Speaker 5: they could get to get a few people to yes.
Speaker 5: But and you know Jordan, you know again, you know
Speaker 5: it's been reported on in the lead up to this vote.
Speaker 5: You know, he's not someone who's been successful passing legislation
Speaker 5: in the past. He's not someone who has had to
Speaker 5: serve in leadership and been someone who has to twist
Speaker 5: arms to get votes. You know, he's one of the
Speaker 5: guys who is sort of an outsider for a lot
Speaker 5: of his time in Congress, and so he may not
Speaker 5: have the sort of skills or willingness to make the
Speaker 5: compromises necessary to build a governing coalition. The trouble is
Speaker 5: for the Republicans is like who is capable.
Speaker 2: Of doing that?
Speaker 5: Given that the eventual speaker can only afford to lose
Speaker 5: what is for you know, House Republican votes on the floor.
Speaker 5: You know, it's different you know previous houses certainly where
Speaker 5: the Democrats handle it. You know, if you win the
Speaker 5: internal caucus vote, you get all those votes on the floor,
Speaker 5: you get almost all those votes on the floor. The
Speaker 5: Republicans aren't been having that way, and they kind of
Speaker 5: have to be unified in order to actually elect speaker
Speaker 5: because they're not getting any Democratic votes, at least not
Speaker 5: for someone like Jim Jordan.
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's a really tough job, and it makes you
Speaker 11: wonder why anyone would want it in the first place.
Speaker 11: And Jim Jordan, as of two weeks in what a
Speaker 11: day ago, Joe was telling you he didn't want to
Speaker 11: be speaker, and here he finds himself. You were talking there,
Speaker 11: Kyle about his kind of rather lack of a legislative record.
Speaker 11: What we know Jim Jordan for is not for passing
Speaker 11: bills on the floor and working in a bipartisan manner.
Speaker 11: He's known for other things, being a conservative firebrand in
Speaker 11: many senses, and also his allegiance in alignment with former
Speaker 11: President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in this speaker race
Speaker 11: back when it was still Jordan versus Scalise. If he
Speaker 11: can't make it work on the floor, what does it
Speaker 11: say about Trump's influence on the Republican Party.
Speaker 5: You got to remember too, that, you know, Steve Scalise
Speaker 5: did beat Jordan in the sort of the earlier vote
Speaker 5: within the conference, but then it became clear that Scolice
Speaker 5: was not going to have the votes on the floor,
Speaker 5: and so then things moved toward Jordan, even though he
Speaker 5: lost the earlier vote. So but the point is is
Speaker 5: that you know, it wasn't like Trump has just been
Speaker 5: able to get you know, all the Republicans to vote
Speaker 5: for to vote for Jordan, you know again organ earlier
Speaker 5: vote and then it doesn't have the votes on the floor.
Speaker 2: Now you wonder what the situation in Israel does, what
Speaker 2: the threat of a shutdown does, these urgent issues that
Speaker 2: lawmakers are facing, urgent requests for funding our own budget, Kyle,
Speaker 2: to any of these add up. You know, we're about
Speaker 2: to hear from Brian moynihann at Bank of America when
Speaker 2: we're done talking. He's of course concerned about these as
Speaker 2: our voters. To any of these add up to hasten
Speaker 2: the end of this saga.
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, look, we had this, you know, the
Speaker 5: events in Israel. You know that was more than a
Speaker 5: week ago. You know, the speaker impass has lasted longer
Speaker 5: than that, and that has not yet produced an in
Speaker 5: it is to produce a speaker, And so I don't
Speaker 5: necessarily know if future events will. You know, we are
Speaker 5: we do have a shutdown looming potentially next month, and
Speaker 5: if the House can't even organize, how do they pass
Speaker 5: something to prevent that from happening? So again. You know,
Speaker 5: the Republicans are trying to hash this stuff out, but
Speaker 5: I mean the clock is ticking on not just this
Speaker 5: looming potential shutdown, but also other important task that the
Speaker 5: House needs to consider.
Speaker 2: Kyle is good to see you. Thanks for checking in
Speaker 2: with us today. As always, great analysis from Kyle Condick
Speaker 2: at Sabado's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. A
Speaker 2: steady hand here. But it's interesting, Kayley, when you talk
Speaker 2: to people of experienced, people who've been around this town
Speaker 2: for a while, people who've covered politics for a while,
Speaker 2: they're all saying the same thing. This is completely unheard of,
Speaker 2: uncharted territory.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 11: Well, of course, the reason we're in this position in
Speaker 11: the first place is because a sitting Speaker of the
Speaker 11: House was ousted by eight members of his own party.
Speaker 11: The man presiding over the election of a speaker is
Speaker 11: a speaker pro ten This is an untested position that Patrick.
Speaker 9: Mcchenry is in.
Speaker 11: So much of this has just never been seen before.
Speaker 11: And of course it follows the fifteen rounds of voting
Speaker 11: it took to elect to speaker in January, which hadn't
Speaker 11: been seen in what centuries? Yes, I believe and we'll
Speaker 11: see how close we get to that fifteen number in
Speaker 11: rounds of votes this time around, Joe.
Speaker 2: And over one hundred years since Emotion that Vacate it's been,
Speaker 2: or at least one that succeeded, it's been quite remarkable.
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