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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast.

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Speaker 2: The voting is underway. Welcome to the fastest show in politics,

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Speaker 2: as the House of Representatives gathers to elect a new Speaker,

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Speaker 2: with Republican Speaker nominee Jim Jordan reaching for the two

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Speaker 2: hundred and seventeen votes required. Now it's unclear if he

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Speaker 2: can get them. We're going to learn this together in

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Speaker 2: real time, and we'll bring you behind the scenes. Coming up,

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Speaker 2: Sarah Chamberlain, the president of the Republican Main Street Partnership.

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Speaker 2: She has the pulse of the conference and will be

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Speaker 2: with us in just a moment with analysis today from

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Speaker 2: our political panel. Republican strategist Lisa Camuso Miller, former communications

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Speaker 2: director at the RNC, is with us along with Democratic

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Speaker 2: analyst Matt Bennett, co founder of Third Way Strategies, on

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Speaker 2: the Tuesday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. It's happening as

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Speaker 2: we speak. I can bring it to the floor right now, Jeff,

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Speaker 2: where the voting is taking place on a new speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House. We just did this, you say, less

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Speaker 2: than a year ago. Yes, that is true, and here

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Speaker 2: we are yet again, Jeffries. How came Jeffries skidding Democratic

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Speaker 2: votes on the floor. It's Jim Jordan. We're listening for

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Speaker 2: here as the Republican conference is met with a real test.

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Speaker 2: Of course, two seventeen. If you're playing along in your

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Speaker 2: home game, remember the rules here. Jordan needs two hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventeen votes to become speaker. That means he can

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Speaker 2: really only lose four Republicans. The congressman was surrounded by

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Speaker 2: reporters when he got to work this morning. Jeffries quite

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Speaker 2: the gaggle. Listen to this back and forth as he

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Speaker 2: made his way from the door to the elevator.

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Speaker 3: You need to get a.

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Speaker 4: Speaker today, and we feel really good about where we're at.

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Speaker 5: I'm sorry, I'm.

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Speaker 6: Going over to meet.

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Speaker 5: But does doesn't mean ballad after ballot?

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Speaker 2: But wait, Macarthy did whatever whatever it takes to get

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Speaker 2: the speaker today. What are some of the concerns that

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Speaker 2: you've skilled heard.

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Speaker 4: We've been picking up support every day and so it's

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Speaker 4: been Uh, have you Sgain, I feel confident? Have you

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Speaker 4: spoken to President Trump? Are you asking him to help

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Speaker 4: you with this?

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Speaker 2: Talk to the president?

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Speaker 4: Talking to the president a couple of days? How first

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Speaker 4: been knowing?

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Speaker 6: Why?

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Speaker 5: Why would you say to ken Buck that the election

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Speaker 5: was stolen in twenty twenty that was not stolen?

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Speaker 2: Into the elevator, he goes without answering the question from

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Speaker 2: Hona Raju, a question that's been coming up repeatedly. ABC's

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Speaker 2: Rachel Scott essentially asked him the same thing and got

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Speaker 2: the same response.

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Speaker 5: Earlier today, ken Buck said, it's important for the Republican

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Speaker 5: Speaker of the House to acknowledge that Donald Trump lost

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Speaker 5: the election?

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Speaker 1: Do you acknowledge that.

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Speaker 2: Silence on that one? As we listen now to the

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Speaker 2: voting taking place live on the House, I work some

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Speaker 2: concerns about January sixth, as presented by Liz Cheney. We've

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Speaker 2: talked about that on this broadcast. Some concerns as well

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Speaker 2: about his exposure to a sexual assault scandal while spending

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Speaker 2: time working as a wrestling coach at the university level. Here,

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Speaker 2: but the nominations have taken place, the names are on

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Speaker 2: the floor here. We heard from Elis Daphonic on behalf

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Speaker 2: of Congressman Jim Jordan a short time ago.

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Speaker 7: Whether on the wrestling matt or in the committee room,

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Speaker 7: Jim Jordan is strategic, scrappy, tough and principled. He is

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Speaker 7: a mentor, a worker, and above all, he is a fighter.

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Speaker 7: And the American people know, we know that Jim Jordan

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Speaker 7: is a winner. On behalf of the American people got a.

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Speaker 2: Big round of applause at the end of her speech,

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Speaker 2: as did Pete Aglar, who entered the name of Hakeen Jeffries.

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Speaker 2: And now we're going through the process here that the

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Speaker 2: house is full as I see Nancy Pelosi and Standie

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Speaker 2: Layer sitting right nearby Hakim Jeffries crane. But again, it's

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Speaker 2: not the Democrats that we're watching today, and that's why

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Speaker 2: I'm glad to say Sarah Chamberlain is with us, the

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Speaker 2: President's CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, who's been

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Speaker 2: prescient in her analysis year, was the only insider in

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Speaker 2: Washington who assured us there would be no government shutdown,

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Speaker 2: and now she's back to talk about the race for

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Speaker 2: speaker here, one that she's been involved in her ninety

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Speaker 2: or so. Members of the Partnership will have a pivotal

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Speaker 2: role in electing the next speaker. And that's why Sarah

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Speaker 2: is in the room for so many of these important conversations.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you back, Sarah. Your initial take today,

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Speaker 2: whether it's one or fifteen rounds, is Jim Jordan going

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Speaker 2: to be the next speaker.

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Speaker 3: I don't know yet, be honest. He's not going to

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Speaker 3: give them the first round. He may get it on

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Speaker 3: the fifth or sixth round. I also don't think that

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Speaker 3: the members are going to go fifteen rounds, but Jim

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Speaker 3: Jordan can't get it after the third or fourth round.

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Speaker 3: I think that they're going to move in a different direction.

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Speaker 3: Most of the Republican Main Street Partnership members are voting

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Speaker 3: for Jim Jordan, though the couple that have not so

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Speaker 3: far are both main Street members and they voted for McCarthy.

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Speaker 3: So it's going to be an interesting dynamic.

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Speaker 6: I tell you.

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Speaker 3: The one thing that they all agree on is we

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Speaker 3: need a Speaker of the House, and we need one soon.

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Speaker 3: This is ridiculous. The unrest, they're tired of it, Israel

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Speaker 3: that war, and here we are we can't get a speaker.

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Speaker 3: So interesting times here in Washington.

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Speaker 2: Thank God, that's for sure. Just think of the stuff

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Speaker 2: we've talked about in the short time that we've been

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Speaker 2: doing this together. Sarah Political called it a cascade of caving,

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Speaker 2: which I thought was pretty clever, as we saw Mike Rodgers,

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Speaker 2: Ken Calvert, Mark Molinaro, a lot of names that we

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Speaker 2: didn't expect to vote for. Jim Jordan fall into his

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Speaker 2: column here, and I wonder what you make of the

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Speaker 2: sort of speed with which that took place over the

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Speaker 2: last twenty four to forty eight hours. Was it just

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Speaker 2: effective whipping over the weekend from Jim Jordan or just

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Speaker 2: an eagerness to get this done.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a combination of three things. They're eager

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Speaker 3: to get this done, Jordan has a great whipped operation.

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Speaker 3: And then the third thing is I really want to

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Speaker 3: emphasize Jim Jordan has been reaching out to the Republican

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Speaker 3: Main Street Partnership members for months, long before McCarthy was

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Speaker 3: ever recalled. So he has been building a relationship with

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Speaker 3: these members, never dreaming I'm sure that he would be

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Speaker 3: in this position today. Did neither vote for Speaker of

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Speaker 3: the House.

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Speaker 2: Well, so is this a turning over a new leaf

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Speaker 2: for him? Is this a different Jim Jordan than we thought?

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Speaker 2: We knew.

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Speaker 3: I think he's trying to be I really do think

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Speaker 3: he's trying to change and really become a leader that

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Speaker 3: can lead the entire delegation. Though I know the third

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Speaker 3: member just voted no for him, just voted for Lee's Eldam,

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Speaker 3: so clearly that he's not going to get it in

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Speaker 3: the first round. Ken Buck is not there. But but

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Speaker 3: what Jim Jordan is trying to do, and that's why

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Speaker 3: he's talking to the main Street members who live in

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Speaker 3: Biden districts seventeen of the eighteen that live in those

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Speaker 3: districts and main Street members and he's reaching out, you know,

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Speaker 3: what do you need? And again he's been doing this

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Speaker 3: for months and months and months. This is not a

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Speaker 3: new thing. So I think Jim Jordan is working to

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Speaker 3: see what the entire Republican House needs to maintain the majority.

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Speaker 2: As you just heard from Sarah, doesn't look like it's

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Speaker 2: going to happen here for Jim Jordan. Yeah, fallon, it's

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Speaker 2: not listening live now on the House floor, Jordan. But

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Speaker 2: you knew that was going to happen, Sarah. You said

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Speaker 2: that most people didn't expect this to be done in

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Speaker 2: the first round. The question is you know, can you

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Speaker 2: go the distance and to your point, will there be

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Speaker 2: patients after say around three for another Jim Jordan vote.

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Speaker 3: I really don't see this going like it did for

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Speaker 3: Kevin into fourteen fifteen rounds. I think that the members

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Speaker 3: want to get a speaker. If it's Jim Jordan, fine,

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Speaker 3: If it's not, they move on to somebody else, you know,

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Speaker 3: maybe it's a McHenry. I don't know. I don't think

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Speaker 3: there's a plan, to be honest with you, believe it

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Speaker 3: or not. They just want to get this behind them

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Speaker 3: in the best way they can. Clearly right now in

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Speaker 3: this vote, he is not going to get He's not

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Speaker 3: going to become the speaker.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, how about that? As we learn live with Sarah Chamberlain,

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Speaker 2: if you're just joining us, Jim Jordan does not make

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Speaker 2: the first round here with a live vote still underway

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Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, Sarah, what do you make of the

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Speaker 2: conversation around January sixth? And I ask you that specifically

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Speaker 2: through the view of Main Street Partnership members who are

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Speaker 2: taking a certain approach to politics and are not obviously

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Speaker 2: in the MAGA camp. And there's been a lot of

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Speaker 2: talk from Liz Cheney and others, a lot of reporters

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Speaker 2: who are asking questions about Jim Jordan's role on January sixth,

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Speaker 2: and we're hearing a lot of forgiveness, frankly from establishment Republicans.

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Speaker 2: Are you as.

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Speaker 3: Well, Yes, I am, and because they do think he

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Speaker 3: has changed from that day and that time, and he's

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Speaker 3: become much more willing to talk to all the members.

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Speaker 3: He's not quite as much freedom Caucus as he was

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Speaker 3: on that day. And you can see that with his

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Speaker 3: support of Kevin. I mean, he stood up hard and

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Speaker 3: fast to support Kevin McCarthy in his during his entire

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Speaker 3: speaker Speaker's race, and then while he was speaker, and

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Speaker 3: then frankly, he tried very hard to save him. He worked,

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Speaker 3: he tried to persuade Matt Gates and the others uh

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Speaker 3: not to vote against against McCarthy. So he's been doing

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Speaker 3: a lot and that is why you're seeing him get

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Speaker 3: more votes and maybe some people thought he would. But

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Speaker 3: you're also seeing some members that you know, for reasons,

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Speaker 3: onto themselves for different reasons. They they have not voted

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Speaker 3: for him today. They're voting for other people.

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Speaker 2: Got a couple of McCarthy's, including Representative Bacon that may

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Speaker 2: not be a surprise to you. Are you still holding

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Speaker 2: out and it sounds like you are getting back to

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Speaker 2: where we started for another name to emerge. If this

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Speaker 2: doesn't coalesce today.

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Speaker 3: Well we have to. If Jim Jordan cannot get to speaker,

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Speaker 3: and again I don't know, maybe in the third or

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Speaker 3: fourth round he can, but if he can't, we have

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Speaker 3: to pivot to the next option. And you know what

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Speaker 3: that option is. I don't know. It could be McHenry

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Speaker 3: if he'll do it for sixty days. I don't see.

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Speaker 3: I don't really see us working with the Democrats to

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Speaker 3: try to really forge a bipartisanship. I think when the

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Speaker 3: Democrats didn't step up and help Kevin a couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, there was a lot of damage done between

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Speaker 3: the two parties, more so than was there prior. So

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's a mess. It really is a mess.

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Speaker 3: It's the only thing I can say. And hopefully we'll

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Speaker 3: get this behind us soon one way or another.

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Speaker 2: Well, your view is important to us because you know

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Speaker 2: what a mess looks like here, and you know what

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Speaker 2: regular order looks like. Sarah I was compelled to hear

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Speaker 2: from Alexandria Acossio Cortes on CNN last evening. She was

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Speaker 2: talking about the New York delegation New York moderate Republicans

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Speaker 2: who she doesn't think will be able to to vote

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Speaker 2: for Jim Jordan. Here's how she put.

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Speaker 6: It, We'll see if individuals like Mike Lawler or Mark Moulenaro,

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Speaker 6: who represent New Yorkers in Hudson Valley, the Catskills Westchester County,

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Speaker 6: will actually vote to install a man who voted to

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Speaker 6: overturn the United States's election and who supports a national

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Speaker 6: abortion ban to be Speaker of the House and second

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Speaker 6: in line to the presidency.

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Speaker 2: What do you think, Sarah, Can they bring a vote

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Speaker 2: like that home?

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Speaker 3: So Mark has fled. Mark Marlano is going to go. Yes,

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Speaker 3: we're not to the MS yet, but every indication is

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Speaker 3: that he is voting for Jim Jordan. Clearly he thinks

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Speaker 3: in his district he can take that vote and survive it.

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Speaker 3: You know, DS Misito is already voted, and he did

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Speaker 3: not vote. He voted for Leezelden. I understand Mike Lawler

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Speaker 3: is not voting for Jordan either. So New York will

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Speaker 3: will separate, you know New York's I'm from New York

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Speaker 3: it is certainly an interesting state, and they all have

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Speaker 3: very much their own opinions and strong opinions, and they're

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Speaker 3: going to do what they think is best for their districts.

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Speaker 2: Appropriations Chair Kate Granger votes for Steve Scalise. Are these

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Speaker 2: just protest votes or are their hopes that a Scalisa

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Speaker 2: McCarthy comes back into the fold.

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Speaker 3: Sarah, Well, I would tell you I hear overwhelmingly from

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Speaker 3: our members that they really wish McCart they would run again.

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Speaker 3: They love him, they think it's unfair, and they would

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Speaker 3: love to have him go. I don't think that's going

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Speaker 3: to be an option, but here we are.

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Speaker 2: Sounds like you've got your eyes on Patrick McHenry if

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Speaker 2: we have to go.

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Speaker 3: There, that he'll be the next best option, and he'd

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Speaker 3: be a very good option if if, and it's a

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Speaker 3: big if still, if we have to go there.

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Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could join us in the throes

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Speaker 2: of this vote. Sarah. It's good to see you, and

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Speaker 2: thank you as always for the insights. Sarah Chamberlain, Republican

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Speaker 2: main Street Partnership President and CEO. She knows, as we've

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Speaker 2: learned live on the air. Here together, let's assemble the

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Speaker 2: panel so they can each take a swing at this. Well,

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Speaker 2: we have time with Matt Bennett, executive vice president for

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Speaker 2: public Affairs at Third Way, and Lisa Kamussa Miller is

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Speaker 2: along today, reset public affairs partner and of course former

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Speaker 2: communications director at the RNC. It's great to have you

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Speaker 2: both here on an important data and Lisa, I can

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Speaker 2: only imagine what's going through your mind right now. With

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Speaker 2: Jim Jordan on the cusp of becoming speaker, do you

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Speaker 2: think he can do this?

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Speaker 8: Not on the first ballot seven votes already against him

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Speaker 8: for a variety of folks. I love Sarah's analysis. She's

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Speaker 8: always a star and she always has her finger on

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Speaker 8: the pulse of how things are going. I do think

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Speaker 8: she's right. I think that we're probably not going to

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Speaker 8: see fifteen ballots, which thank goodness for that. But it's

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Speaker 8: also a demonstration of the American people that we as

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Speaker 8: a party still do not have a consensus, a consensus

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Speaker 8: candidate and someone that can that can lead the conference

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Speaker 8: in governance, and that's so critically important right now. So

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Speaker 8: it will be interesting to see. But obviously we're going

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Speaker 8: for another ballot for sure.

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Speaker 2: No votes for Jim Jordan, Matt, what do you think

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Speaker 2: about the way this is going? What are we learning

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Speaker 2: from this first round when everyone said he likely would

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Speaker 2: not be confirmed as a speaker.

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Speaker 4: Right, I mean, I think this is not a surprise

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Speaker 4: at least in this round. What is it shock an

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Speaker 4: enormous surprise is that we're doing this at all. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the idea that Jim Jordan might become the Speaker of

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Speaker 4: the House would have been laughable about two weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: and it's still profoundly shocking. I mean, this guy is

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Speaker 4: far far too radical to serve in any leadership post,

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Speaker 4: not least third in line to the presidency. And the

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Speaker 4: guy who's going to have to negotiate on behalf of

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Speaker 4: the House with President Biden with the Senate, this is

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Speaker 4: not somebody who has any of those relationships, and for

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Speaker 4: whom his own colleagues on the Republican side have enormous contempt.

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Speaker 4: I mean, former Speaker Bainer said that he was a

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Speaker 4: legislative terrorist. So this should not be happening at all,

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Speaker 4: and the fact that it's close to happening is truly shocking.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I guess it's just a question of whether

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Speaker 2: it does happen, but we'll find this out together as

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Speaker 2: we move forward. Here with our panel, Matt Bennett and

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Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Thanks for

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Speaker 2: joining us on the fastest show in politics. We've got

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Speaker 2: a lot to cover here still, Matt and Lisa, stay

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Speaker 2: with us as we keep our eye on the floor

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Speaker 2: of the House. Jim Jordan fails in the first round

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Speaker 2: of voting, but he could still be speaker. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

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Speaker 2: Jim Jordan will not be Speaker of the House, not

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Speaker 2: on the first round. You see what I did there,

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Speaker 2: just learned. As the voting takes place, they're counting them

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Speaker 2: right now. Now come for the roll call here. This is

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Speaker 2: live sound from the House floor. He does not have

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Speaker 2: the votes to get this done, and that's not a

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Speaker 2: surprise to anybody. No one thought Jim Jordan was going

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Speaker 2: to close this down on the first round, remembering Kevin

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Speaker 2: McCarthy took fifteen, and no one thinks that's going to

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Speaker 2: happen either. But we're going to stay close to this

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Speaker 2: because it does appear that there will be a second

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Speaker 2: vote to follow, and it might be earlier than we thought.

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Speaker 2: We'll let you know how this goes. It's kind of

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Speaker 2: moving under our feet. All of this happening as we

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Speaker 2: speak in Washington, which is what we promise you here

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Speaker 2: McGarvey first draft of history. We'll just learn it together

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Speaker 2: as we assemble our panel. Matt Bennett from Third Way,

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Speaker 2: Lisa Camusa Miller at Reset Public Affairs with us here

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Speaker 2: to bring both sides of the conversation as we look

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Speaker 2: at Congressman Brian's style with the tally before the speaker's rostrum.

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Speaker 2: This is going to take them a little bit here, Lisa, obviously,

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Speaker 2: But now that we know Jim Jordan will not be

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Speaker 2: speaker on the first round, I wonder what you see

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Speaker 2: happening through the course of the day here. They clearly

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Speaker 2: don't want to repeat what happened in January, and based

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Speaker 2: on what we heard from Sarah Chamberlain patients will run

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Speaker 2: very thin after a second or third round here. Do

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Speaker 2: you see it that way in terms of his window

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Speaker 2: of opportunity.

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Speaker 8: I definitely do. I mean, there's already so much dissatisfaction

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Speaker 8: with him as a candidate. As much as he's been

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Speaker 8: doing all the retail politics he can, talking to members

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Speaker 8: and finding ways to be supportive of them and their needs,

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Speaker 8: I think that there's just a general distrust of him

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Speaker 8: as a candidate, so it will be interesting to see

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Speaker 8: if he can get them over the line.

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Speaker 9: The other thing too, to Joe to.

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Speaker 8: Watch that I've been watching as a campaign kid for

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Speaker 8: as long as I can remember, is that Jim Jordan

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Speaker 8: is not a fundraiser. He is not someone who raises money.

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Speaker 8: He's not someone who meets the threshold for his dues

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Speaker 8: for the NRCC. If that's the case and we elect

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Speaker 8: a speaker that's not someone who's a party builder who

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Speaker 8: does everything they can to get others elected, that too,

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Speaker 8: is a change of course for the Republican Party. And

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Speaker 8: that's also of concern because if he's not following the rules,

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Speaker 8: then who who else? Who needs to Then?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt, we've got now twelve votes. If my count

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Speaker 2: is right against Jim Jordan. Obviously he's got more than

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Speaker 2: just the sort of eight troublemakers who ousted Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 2: to worry about here. If that number keeps climbing, how

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Speaker 2: quickly does patients run out? We're undo another name.

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Speaker 4: Really, that's entirely up to the Republicans, and it's not

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Speaker 4: something I have great visibility to. I would tell you

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Speaker 4: that the Democrats will do this all day long. Not

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Speaker 4: a single Democrat is ever going to vote for Jim

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Speaker 4: Jordan under any circumstances. I mean, the sun could burn

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Speaker 4: out before that happens. So this is really a question

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Speaker 4: of the Republicans are going to change course.

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Speaker 2: We've got a big old round of applause, standing ovation

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Speaker 2: on the House floor. Matt Hakeim Jeffreys wins his conference

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Speaker 2: on the first round. Are we going to do this

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Speaker 2: again like January two hundred and twelve, two hundred and twelve,

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Speaker 2: two hundred and twelve, As Katherine Clark said.

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Speaker 4: Yes, as long as the candidate in question is Jim Jordan.

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Speaker 4: I think if Republicans come to their senses and they

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Speaker 4: nominate somebody else, another Republican to be sure that's going

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Speaker 4: to be a Republican speaker. They have the majority, but

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Speaker 4: if they nominate you know, Don Bacon or somebody sensible,

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Speaker 4: then it is conceivable that Democrats might actually vote for

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Speaker 4: them or a vote present, so that really can more

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Speaker 4: easily get to a majority.

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Speaker 2: Do we see that happening, Lisa? Does that person exist?

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Speaker 8: Oh?

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Speaker 9: I don't know.

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Speaker 8: I mean, I like the optimism for sure from Matt,

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Speaker 8: but I'm not sure that that's right because I think

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Speaker 8: that so far the Democratic Caucus has looked incredibly strong,

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Speaker 8: I mean, bulletproof when it comes to this vote, and

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Speaker 8: really in just about everything they do. And so why

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Speaker 8: I couldn't understand for any candidate other than a candidate

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Speaker 8: that does not exist, that they would change their vote

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Speaker 8: in either vote present or vote in favor of a

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Speaker 8: Republican candidate. I think that they're better off sticking with

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Speaker 8: Hakeem Jeffries. They think he's the best possible leader for

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Speaker 8: the job. Anyway, I'd be surprised if they changed course.

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Speaker 8: But I'd also be surprised that we pick a candidate

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Speaker 8: that was more like a Don Bacon. I have a

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Speaker 8: feeling that if it's not Jim Jordan, I think Sarah

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Speaker 8: Chamberlin is onto something.

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Speaker 9: It is certainly something we've been.

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Speaker 8: Predicting on this show and other places for months now,

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Speaker 8: is that McHenry very well could be he could fall

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Speaker 8: over backwards into this position, but mostly because he's stirring

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Speaker 8: right now in that role and people see him more

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Speaker 8: and more as a leader that they can work with.

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Speaker 2: It looked like Jim Jordan was making progress winning folks

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Speaker 2: over on the matter of Ukraine. There Goes, there go man.

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Speaker 2: Another round of applause.

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Speaker 9: For Kim Jeffers Jeffries.

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Speaker 2: Debbie Dingle was asked about this. I want you to

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Speaker 2: hear what she said. This is of course a Democrat

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Speaker 2: from Michigan close to the leadership on the matter of

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Speaker 2: Ukraine funding and whether Jim Jordan will embrace that along

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Speaker 2: with supplemental funding for Israel, for instance. It's been a

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Speaker 2: big sticking point with a lot of Republicans in the House,

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Speaker 2: and it's interesting to see where Jim Jordan stands here.

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Speaker 2: Here's Debbie Dingle from earlier today.

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Speaker 10: Obviously a lot of people worry about that, but I

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Speaker 10: talked to some Republicans who say that he's going to

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Speaker 10: make sure that it's there. We know the Republicans in

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Speaker 10: the Senate believe that it needs to be there, and

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Speaker 10: I'm not going to take the lowest position and go

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Speaker 10: all the world is done this crisis, this crisis. I'm

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Speaker 10: going to work together to do what's with my colleagues

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Speaker 10: on both sides of the file.

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Speaker 2: So, Matt Bennett, do your worst fears about Jim Jordan

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Speaker 2: include a defunding, if you will, of the war effort

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine? Or do you think Jim Jordan offers that

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Speaker 2: to become the next speaker?

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Speaker 4: You know, I don't know. He certainly doesn't want to

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Speaker 4: fund Ukraine. If it was up for him, he wouldn't,

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Speaker 4: which is very scary, But it's possible that he offered

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Speaker 4: that as a bargainingship in trying to win this vote. However,

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Speaker 4: the Ukraine situation is not going to go away anytime soon.

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Speaker 4: They're in day six hundred of this war. It's not

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Speaker 4: going to end quickly, and it's very likely that the

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Speaker 4: Body Remistration is going to have to come back to

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Speaker 4: the Hill for more Ukraine money at some point, and

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Speaker 4: at that point his bargaining chips will be gone. So

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00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 4: I really worry about that, But I worry more that

438
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 4: Jim Jordan has no interest in having the government function

439
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 4: as it should. I mean, we have planes almost knocking

440
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: into each other, we have FAA needing money. This government

441
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 4: is vitally important. And Jordan was the main driver behind

442
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 4: the shutdown under Trump, and you can certainly see him

443
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 4: doing that again as speaker.

444
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 2: Yeah. Blueberg Intelligence is running odds on this, Lisa, increasing

445
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: the odds to eighty percent of a government shutdown if

446
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 2: a man named Jim Jordan becomes speaker? Do you agree

447
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 2: with that? And if sol why.

448
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 8: I would be surprised if that percentage adjusted very much

449
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 8: for anybody that becomes the speaker. And I say this

450
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 8: because the clock is running out. I mean two weeks

451
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 8: ago we had forty five days. Now we have what

452
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 8: thirty days left to go, and we have how many

453
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 8: appropriations bills to get through and get to the Senate.

454
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 2: Pass a CR or that he would not work with

455
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: the White House or both.

456
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 8: He saw the way the CR went for McCarthy. I

457
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 8: don't think he would do that again. I think he's

458
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 8: going to try to get it done. He's going to

459
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 8: try to do each individual bill as the Conference is

460
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 8: asking him to.

461
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 9: So if that's the case, yeah, I really feel like it.

462
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 9: I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but it does feel

463
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 9: that way.

464
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's even a factor for the

465
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 2: Republicans voting right now, Matt, But do you see the

466
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: odds of a shutdown increasing if it is in fact

467
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 2: Speaker Jordan.

468
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 4: Jeff Oh, without a doubt. I mean, Jordan is the

469
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 4: hardest line member you can get. There is no harder line.

470
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 4: He's all the way to one hundred out of one hundred.

471
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 4: So yeah, But I do think this is right, that

472
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 4: the odds of a shutdown are high regardless of who

473
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 4: they pick, presuming that the Speaker ends up being a Republican,

474
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 4: which it will, I do think. I think that without

475
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 4: much time to negotiate, it's going to be very hard

476
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 4: to get this across the finish line. The question is

477
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 4: what do Republicans want? You know, I think the President

478
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 4: is open to listening to things, even though they cut

479
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 4: a deal with him and then you know, promptly abdicated

480
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 4: on that deal. But they seem only to want to

481
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 4: cause chaos and destruction, and that is not a thing

482
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 4: that Joe Biden is going to be able to give them.

483
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 2: You do wonder in our remaining moment here at Lisa,

484
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: can you just picture in your head, close your eyes,

485
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 2: picture in your head that's still photo from the pool

486
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 2: spray in the Oval office with Jim Jordan sitting on

487
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 2: the couch or maybe on the chair next to the

488
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 2: fireplace with Joe Biden. Is that something that's within the

489
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 2: realm of possibility.

490
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 9: Joe Biden maybe the last.

491
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 8: Member of the legislature now president who is someone that

492
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 8: would cross the aisle even for the most egregious and difficult.

493
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 8: So I do think that that will happen if Jim

494
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 8: Jordan becomes the Speaker, that the President will work with

495
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 8: him to the ability that he can. The other question is,

496
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 8: will Jim Jordan work with the president?

497
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 9: Really?

498
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: Yes?

499
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: Right, I can only imagine what would happen in that

500
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 2: pool spray. Really glad to have Matt Bennett and Lisa

501
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 2: Kumuso Miller with us as we learn in real time,

502
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 2: share the future the leadership in the House of Representatives.

503
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 2: Jim Jordan has lost the first round of voting. We're

504
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 2: preparing for a second.

505
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

506
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Dot com the

507
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

508
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast.

509
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 2: With some real news, Hayley, we thought we might be

510
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 2: walking through this still at this point. But Jim Jordan

511
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 2: has failed, yes in his quest to be speaker in

512
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: the first round. There's going to be a second. But

513
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 2: a lot of folks are kind of surprised by the

514
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: number of I won't say no votes, but others. We

515
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 2: get twenty Yeah, members of the Republican Conference picking somewhere

516
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 2: else for speaker.

517
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 9: Yeah.

518
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 11: We knew he likely wasn't going to get it on

519
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 11: the first round because there were a handful of Republicans

520
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 11: who said they were no votes in Jordan. What we got, though,

521
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 11: was not a handful, Joe. It was a sizeable amount

522
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 11: of the Republican Conference, twenty individuals who decided not to

523
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 11: vote for him. He has sixteen votes realistically that he's

524
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 11: going to need to flip if he wants to get

525
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 11: the gavel. And the question now is A can he

526
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 11: do that? And B what does he need to give

527
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 11: up to do it? If he can indeed pull that off.

528
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty is a lot at this point. It is

529
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy. Producer James dug this up lost nineteen on

530
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: his first round in January.

531
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, he got two hundred one, and we know that.

532
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: Went fifteen rounds. No one thinks this is going fifteen.

533
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: You get to the third round here and patients will

534
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: likely run pretty thin.

535
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: Well.

536
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 11: It becomes a question though, of the path forward, because

537
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 11: if Jordan's still not there after three rounds, is it

538
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 11: time for a more serious conversation about expanding the powers

539
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 11: of speaker pro ten Patrick mc arthy? Is it time

540
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 11: to try to coalesce around someone new. It's very unclear

541
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 11: what the conference would do at that point, and frankly,

542
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 11: what Jim Jordan himself would do. How many rounds does

543
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 11: he want to have to sit.

544
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 2: Through fascinating a speaker McCarthy former Speaker McCarthy, by that.

545
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 11: Speaker emeritis Kevin McCarthy now the congressman from California.

546
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 2: He said it was the Democrat's fault. Is that right?

547
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:23,239
Speaker 4: Oh?

548
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: Okay, we don't even need to play it. I guess

549
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 2: he got a couple of votes. Steve Scale's got a

550
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: couple of votes. Lee Zelden got a couple of votes. Yeah,

551
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 2: and that's how we got to.

552
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 11: Twenty Yeah, three for Zelden, six for McCarthy, seven for Scalise,

553
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 11: and then there were some others thrown in there as well,

554
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 11: Emma Cole, Massey, Garcia. So it becomes a question, Joe,

555
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 11: of if any of those members who voted for that

556
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 11: group of individuals would vote for Jordan on the next ballot,

557
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 11: and frankly, if any that voted for Jordan on the

558
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 11: first ballot would also vote for him on the second.

559
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 11: Just a lot of questions, more questions than answers.

560
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 2: Everyone knew that we're going to be protest fosts. Just

561
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 2: get it out of your system on the first round.

562
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 2: We're really not going to know where we stand until

563
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: this is a second round, would be my.

564
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 11: Thought on this, and we don't know when that will be.

565
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: You might agree, but we have that could be six

566
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: o'clock this evening, right, we know what they're going to

567
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: try to do it today, we're waiting for timing. Do

568
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: you know something I don't know?

569
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 11: I know, I don't know anything affirmative, But Joe, when

570
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 11: we thought there might be another vote this evening, I

571
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 11: think was before Jordan knew what kind of margin realistically

572
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 11: he was going to fail by yeah.

573
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So look, anything could happen. We've been telling you

574
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 2: guys that, and that's going to remain the case as

575
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: we bring in Kyle Condick from Sabada's Crystal Ball, the

576
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 2: managing editor and author of the Long Red Thread is

577
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 2: with us from beautiful University of Virginia outside of the

578
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: reach here of the swamp. Kyle, it's good to see you.

579
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 2: What do you think twenty votes not for Jim Jordan

580
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: tells you what about his chances of becoming speaker, But.

581
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,959
Speaker 5: It seems kind of paralleous for Jordan. And you know,

582
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 5: one thing is it doesn't seem like he and his

583
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 5: allies did a great job of expectation setting, because there

584
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 5: was reporting advance of this vote that maybe they were

585
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 5: thinking there'd be like eight or ten holdouts, and it

586
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,239
Speaker 5: turns out there was double that twenty. You know, not

587
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 5: that certainly not the first time, and norm will be

588
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 5: the last time that the you know, the vote counting

589
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 5: may not be entirely up to snuff on the in

590
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 5: the House Republican side, and so you know, you just

591
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 5: wonder if there's going to be another vote where Jordan

592
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 5: is the main candidate, or if it's going to splinter.

593
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 5: You know, there was some talk in the past few

594
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 5: days that Mike Johnson from Louisiana, who is certainly not

595
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 5: a household name or anything, but that he might throw

596
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 5: his hat in the ring if Jordan falls out. You know,

597
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 5: I don't know where this thing is going at this point,

598
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 5: but I think that you know, twenty no votes, that

599
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 5: to me, you know, again, I think that's a it's

600
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 5: a fairly bad outcome for Jordan. On the first vote.

601
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 5: We knew that he wasn't going to get it, but again,

602
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 5: he's not necessarily within just twisting a few arms and

603
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 5: getting there, and he's to twist, you know what, fifteen

604
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 5: arms to get there. And there's some there's been some

605
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 5: report there were some people that were going to vote

606
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 5: for Jordan on the first ball but might not vote

607
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 5: for on the second. So who knows.

608
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, we could see a whole bunch of

609
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 11: things slipping around by the time we get to a

610
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 11: second round, whenever that comes, Kyle. But when we talk

611
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 11: about the composition of these twenty individuals who voted against Jordan,

612
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 11: a number of them are those really vulnerable Republicans, the

613
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 11: ones who represent districts that Biden won in twenty twenty.

614
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 11: Do you think any of them actually are ever going

615
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 11: to be able to say, yes, I vote Jim Jordan

616
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 11: for Speaker of the House.

617
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 5: I think it's going to be a hard ask because

618
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 5: you know, they'd be committing to, you know, a really

619
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 5: ideologically conservative speaker, and they probably would also be committing

620
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 5: to more fights down the line with the Democratic controlled

621
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 5: Senate and the Democratic controlled White House over you know,

622
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 5: future shutdown. And you know, I don't think these things

623
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 5: matter all that much as we're talking now about the

624
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 5: next election, but like, what if the House is just

625
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 5: like a disaster zone for the next twelve months, you know,

626
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 5: does does there start to be sort of accumulating political baggage?

627
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 5: You know, again, I still don't necessarily think so. I

628
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 5: think the presidential election really sets the tone for for

629
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 5: the election next year. But you know, to the there

630
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 5: are only certain things that these House members can control,

631
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 5: and one of them is who do they support for speaker?

632
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 5: And you know, you did have a number, not certainly

633
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 5: not all of the most vulnerable House Republicans not vote

634
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 5: for for Jordan, you know, Lori Chavez Dreamer of Oregon,

635
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 5: Mike Lawler of New York, who's been one of the

636
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 5: more prominent House Republicans and someone who's in a Biden

637
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 5: district beat Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair shan Patrick muloney

638
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 5: in a close race last year Don Bacon from Nebraska too.

639
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 5: That's another you know, Biden one district. In fact, that

640
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 5: district is actually worth an electro vote because that's how

641
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 5: Nebraska does it. So but you know, those were only

642
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 5: a handful of the members who didn't vote for Jordan.

643
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 5: There also were some other folks who aren't from particularly

644
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 5: competitive districts who didn't vote for Jordan. So it was

645
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 5: a it was a mixed bag amongst the twenty houldouts

646
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 5: on Jordan.

647
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 2: Well, so when you pull out the lens a little

648
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 2: bit there with all of that, said Kyle, looking at,

649
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 2: for instance, a congressman like Mike Lawler, how many hard

650
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 2: knows how many never Jordan are there? Do we have

651
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: a sense of that?

652
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 5: I don't know, although it certainly seems like it's more

653
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 5: than enough to prevent Jordan from being speaker, at least

654
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 5: as we're sitting here now. Again, if it was like

655
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 5: eight to ten no votes, you could say, hey, well

656
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 5: they could get to get a few people to yes.

657
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 5: But and you know Jordan, you know again, you know

658
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 5: it's been reported on in the lead up to this vote.

659
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 5: You know, he's not someone who's been successful passing legislation

660
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 5: in the past. He's not someone who has had to

661
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 5: serve in leadership and been someone who has to twist

662
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 5: arms to get votes. You know, he's one of the

663
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 5: guys who is sort of an outsider for a lot

664
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 5: of his time in Congress, and so he may not

665
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 5: have the sort of skills or willingness to make the

666
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 5: compromises necessary to build a governing coalition. The trouble is

667
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 5: for the Republicans is like who is capable.

668
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 2: Of doing that?

669
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 5: Given that the eventual speaker can only afford to lose

670
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 5: what is for you know, House Republican votes on the floor.

671
00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 5: You know, it's different you know previous houses certainly where

672
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,719
Speaker 5: the Democrats handle it. You know, if you win the

673
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 5: internal caucus vote, you get all those votes on the floor,

674
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 5: you get almost all those votes on the floor. The

675
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 5: Republicans aren't been having that way, and they kind of

676
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 5: have to be unified in order to actually elect speaker

677
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 5: because they're not getting any Democratic votes, at least not

678
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 5: for someone like Jim Jordan.

679
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's a really tough job, and it makes you

680
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 11: wonder why anyone would want it in the first place.

681
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 11: And Jim Jordan, as of two weeks in what a

682
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 11: day ago, Joe was telling you he didn't want to

683
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 11: be speaker, and here he finds himself. You were talking there,

684
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 11: Kyle about his kind of rather lack of a legislative record.

685
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 11: What we know Jim Jordan for is not for passing

686
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 11: bills on the floor and working in a bipartisan manner.

687
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 11: He's known for other things, being a conservative firebrand in

688
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 11: many senses, and also his allegiance in alignment with former

689
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 11: President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in this speaker race

690
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 11: back when it was still Jordan versus Scalise. If he

691
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 11: can't make it work on the floor, what does it

692
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 11: say about Trump's influence on the Republican Party.

693
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 5: You got to remember too, that, you know, Steve Scalise

694
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 5: did beat Jordan in the sort of the earlier vote

695
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 5: within the conference, but then it became clear that Scolice

696
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 5: was not going to have the votes on the floor,

697
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 5: and so then things moved toward Jordan, even though he

698
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 5: lost the earlier vote. So but the point is is

699
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 5: that you know, it wasn't like Trump has just been

700
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 5: able to get you know, all the Republicans to vote

701
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 5: for to vote for Jordan, you know again organ earlier

702
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 5: vote and then it doesn't have the votes on the floor.

703
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 2: Now you wonder what the situation in Israel does, what

704
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: the threat of a shutdown does, these urgent issues that

705
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: lawmakers are facing, urgent requests for funding our own budget, Kyle,

706
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 2: to any of these add up. You know, we're about

707
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: to hear from Brian moynihann at Bank of America when

708
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 2: we're done talking. He's of course concerned about these as

709
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 2: our voters. To any of these add up to hasten

710
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 2: the end of this saga.

711
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, look, we had this, you know, the

712
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 5: events in Israel. You know that was more than a

713
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 5: week ago. You know, the speaker impass has lasted longer

714
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 5: than that, and that has not yet produced an in

715
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 5: it is to produce a speaker, And so I don't

716
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 5: necessarily know if future events will. You know, we are

717
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 5: we do have a shutdown looming potentially next month, and

718
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,479
Speaker 5: if the House can't even organize, how do they pass

719
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 5: something to prevent that from happening? So again. You know,

720
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 5: the Republicans are trying to hash this stuff out, but

721
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 5: I mean the clock is ticking on not just this

722
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 5: looming potential shutdown, but also other important task that the

723
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 5: House needs to consider.

724
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: Kyle is good to see you. Thanks for checking in

725
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: with us today. As always, great analysis from Kyle Condick

726
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 2: at Sabado's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. A

727
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 2: steady hand here. But it's interesting, Kayley, when you talk

728
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: to people of experienced, people who've been around this town

729
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 2: for a while, people who've covered politics for a while,

730
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: they're all saying the same thing. This is completely unheard of,

731
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 2: uncharted territory.

732
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 3: Yeah.

733
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 11: Well, of course, the reason we're in this position in

734
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 11: the first place is because a sitting Speaker of the

735
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 11: House was ousted by eight members of his own party.

736
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 11: The man presiding over the election of a speaker is

737
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 11: a speaker pro ten This is an untested position that Patrick.

738
00:35:58,880 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 9: Mcchenry is in.

739
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 11: So much of this has just never been seen before.

740
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 11: And of course it follows the fifteen rounds of voting

741
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 11: it took to elect to speaker in January, which hadn't

742
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 11: been seen in what centuries? Yes, I believe and we'll

743
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 11: see how close we get to that fifteen number in

744
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 11: rounds of votes this time around, Joe.

745
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 2: And over one hundred years since Emotion that Vacate it's been,

746
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: or at least one that succeeded, it's been quite remarkable.

747
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to The Sound On Podcast. Make sure

748
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

749
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find

750
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

751
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com