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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Hopes for the new year actually begin with the NFL

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Speaker 2: Draft of college players.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 4: We're throwing out so spectatular cat.

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Speaker 3: We're sitting it to cash touchtime.

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Speaker 5: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 5: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, that is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 4: You want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel. You

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Speaker 2: are here listening to our NFL Draft betting update. We

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Speaker 2: are two weeks away from the twenty twenty three NFL Draft.

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Speaker 2: Our usual crew, Brendan Glasheen, your host, with Luke Swayne,

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Speaker 2: Travis Reid, our guests and analysts. We join you every

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Speaker 2: week midweek leading up to NFL Draft Day. Round one

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Speaker 2: starts a week two weeks from tomorrow, April twenty seventh.

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Speaker 2: We've also got some new fun nuggets we're going to

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Speaker 2: introduce to the program. If you've been joining us since

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Speaker 2: the beginning for these draft betting updates, our director of research,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams. Throughout the course of today's podcast, we're also

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Speaker 2: joined today by a very special guest, James Weaver, who

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Speaker 2: joins us from the well respected sports data and analytics

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Speaker 2: companies Sports Infos Solutions. James, thanks for stopping by the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Interested to get another voice on here. Why don't you

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Speaker 2: tell us a little bit about yourself and what you're

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Speaker 2: all about.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, for sure, Brendan, thanks for having me on today.

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Speaker 6: We've also put in a lot of time and effort

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Speaker 6: into our SIS NFL draft site. That'll be a lot

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Speaker 6: of the talking points today, So get that a lookout, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, I've got the Sports Info Solutions big board up.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that because I think Luke and Travis

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Speaker 2: have thoughts, but as we normally do when we introduce

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Speaker 2: the program, the biggest storyline, Luke Swain, is the line

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Speaker 2: movement on the number one pick in the draft. Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young is now minus three hundred at FanDuel to be

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Speaker 2: the number one pick in the draft. CJ. Stroud has

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Speaker 2: slipped two plus two twenty.

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts, I mean, everything you're hearing is that it

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Speaker 1: is Bryce and there's nothing confirmed, and it's starting to

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Speaker 1: feel somewhat of a narrative that is getting recycled by

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Speaker 1: different outlets that are picking up picking it up as

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Speaker 1: their own and putting it out there where we've been

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Speaker 1: harping Stroud, which Straut at six fifty. It shows you

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Speaker 1: how sense of this market is. Because you can get

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Speaker 1: Stroud at plus six fifty. The trade happens, it goes

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Speaker 1: to minus two hundred, and you feel really good about

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Speaker 1: your bet and you're almost counting your money, and then

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, a couple of rumors start to leak,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden that that winner that you

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Speaker 1: once thought not too long ago is starting.

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Speaker 3: To lose a lot of faith.

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Speaker 1: But there are a lot of like we truly just

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Speaker 1: don't know, Like if I'm making a mock draft right now,

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Speaker 1: I am putting Bryce at number one. But at the

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Speaker 1: same time, Stroud still has his meeting at Carolina next

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Speaker 1: week week, which I to me definitely does matter because

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Speaker 1: from what you're hearing, is Bryce's meetings.

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Speaker 3: With the Panthers or what have kind of.

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Speaker 1: Shifted this the odds where Tepper, you hear Tepper loves

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Speaker 1: Bryce and Reike clin Uicle likes Stroud. So the juicy

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Speaker 1: rumors is what's going on with the number two pick

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Speaker 1: at this time? Assuming Bryce goes number one.

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Speaker 2: Pravis since we last met. This has completely flipped. Stroud

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Speaker 2: is now the second favorite to go number one, Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young is the favorite. Your reaction to this flip since

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Speaker 2: we last spoke.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it was kind of a nuts scenarioo there where

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Speaker 5: Chris Mortensen had the report where oh, it's definitely going

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Speaker 5: to be Bryce, and then he walked that back saying, oh,

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Speaker 5: that was just for a TV show, that wasn't an

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Speaker 5: actual report, and now we're kind of going back. Well,

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Speaker 5: now they are. Him and Schefter both do think it's

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Speaker 5: going to be Bryce Young. I'm with Luke. I think

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Speaker 5: this is still kind of a toss up. I think

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Speaker 5: while this news was coming out, if you could still

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Speaker 5: get Bryce at plus money, go for it. But if

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Speaker 5: you ask me to make a bet right now, I'll

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Speaker 5: take Stroud at plus money. But if you make me

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Speaker 5: mock it, I'm still gonna take Bryce. But it's kind

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Speaker 5: of those things. I'll take either one of these guys

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Speaker 5: at plus money. I still think this is close to

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Speaker 5: a toss up, and nobody really knows. I would not

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Speaker 5: be surprised if Carolina themselves is torn and some members

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Speaker 5: of the decision team want to take Bryce Young, some

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Speaker 5: want to take Stroud, and they really won't make that

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Speaker 5: decision until a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: And the one thing I do want to harp is, like,

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Speaker 1: the argument for making a better than the number one

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Speaker 1: pick right now is basically the same exact argument argument

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Speaker 1: that I've you been saying. Where bryces minus three hundred,

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Speaker 1: he should not be minus three hundred. I would not

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Speaker 1: lay Bryce at minus three hundred like that is just

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Speaker 1: that's just strong where it's the same thing where when

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Speaker 1: Stroud is minus three hundred, he should never have been

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Speaker 1: minus three hundred. And I do think if you, if

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Speaker 1: you still do believe Stroud is a number one pick,

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Speaker 1: the valuable bet isn't actually taking Stroud at plus two twenty.

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Speaker 1: It's taking Bryce at like plus three twenty to go

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Speaker 1: number two, because if Stroud goes one, Bryce Wan might

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Speaker 1: as well be minus infinity to go number two, which

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Speaker 1: you're you're getting plus three twenty compared to plus two

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Speaker 1: twenty for basically the same bet.

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Speaker 2: So are you in a hedging situation yet, Luke, or

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Speaker 2: is that too early to determine?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 4: And I.

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Speaker 3: Mean I did.

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Speaker 1: I did had some liability that I had on Stroud.

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Speaker 1: But that's the beauty of getting into this market as

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Speaker 1: early as we have January February, where it's a lot

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Speaker 1: easier to hedge out of a Stroud plus six fifty

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Speaker 1: ticket than it is a Stroud minus two hundred or

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Speaker 1: whatever it was.

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Speaker 3: So I'm still hopeful.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, like I said and said, I would put

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Speaker 1: Brice at number one in terms of if I was

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Speaker 1: making a monk.

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Speaker 2: James Weaver, you were shaking your head at Luke's thoughts

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Speaker 2: on the market change to this, what are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: from a Sports Info Solutions perspective.

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Speaker 6: Definitely still a toss up the plus twenty on Stroud,

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Speaker 6: I would say at this point, if you don't have

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Speaker 6: any it.

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Speaker 3: Would be a valuable play.

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Speaker 6: From a SIS perspective, We have them tied in or

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Speaker 6: from their last year of production, they were tied in

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Speaker 6: their total points rating per play, and our total points

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Speaker 6: metric is like kind of an all encompassing metric based

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Speaker 6: on an EPA framework that assigns quantitative value to a player.

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Speaker 6: Bryce and then Bryce kind of takes a little bit

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Speaker 6: of the cake in terms of some of our other leaderboards,

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Speaker 6: but Stroud was right there at second, youngest first in

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Speaker 6: our SIS independent quarterback rating. Strod was second. Bryce had

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Speaker 6: higher IQR under pressure, and Shroud was third. In terms

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Speaker 6: of some accuracy rankings, Young ranks higher in both catchable

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Speaker 6: ball percentage and in on target percentage. Stroud was a

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Speaker 6: little bit further down the list, but in terms of

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Speaker 6: production on a yards per play or adjusted net yards

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Speaker 6: per play, Stroud was actually first and Young was fourth.

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Speaker 6: So these two are just neck and neck. I would

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Speaker 6: agree with the sentiment of Bryce would probably be number

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Speaker 6: one on my mock draft or be the number one favorite,

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Speaker 6: but it turned at these prices. Nothing set. Like Luken mentioned,

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Speaker 6: Stroud hasn't even met with the Panthers yet and that's

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Speaker 6: certainly gonna you know, that could easily sway things one

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Speaker 6: way in market or not.

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Speaker 2: So we've got the betting market perspective, and then you've

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Speaker 2: got to react. And in this, of course, the movement

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Speaker 2: can reflect news. Other times it doesn't, but there is

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Speaker 2: news on Stroud. Lances are Line, who we've referenced often

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Speaker 2: on our podcasts are Line from NFL dot com. Luke,

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Speaker 2: I think you said that mock that he put out

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Speaker 2: last week a week ago now was was a drunk

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Speaker 2: mok or a CJ. Stroud could be selected by the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: If they move up. Then there's a report that CJ. Stroud,

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Speaker 2: this is Ian Rapaport. Stroud's going to meet with the Raiders,

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Speaker 2: which last I thought when we first started doing this,

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Speaker 2: the Raiders weren't interested anymore in moving up to go

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Speaker 2: maybe get a Will Levis. Now they're connected to Stroud,

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Speaker 2: they're going to meet with him. So as far as

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Speaker 2: just the the news coming from a reputable draft people,

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Speaker 2: and then you've got your shifters and your Rappaport's ESPN,

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Speaker 2: NFL network respectively, what do we make of just the

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Speaker 2: news as of now?

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Speaker 1: Zer line Like he prefaces mock two days prior to

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Speaker 1: putting it out, that it was going to be crazy

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Speaker 1: and it was going to cause chaos. Yeah, Trunk, And

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Speaker 1: when you read it like that is your first inclination.

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Speaker 1: And he is the person that we want to dial

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Speaker 1: into when it comes to the Texans, his history, he is,

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Speaker 1: he's connected. He mocks the Texans picks every single year,

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Speaker 1: very accurately, got them both last year, and when you're

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Speaker 1: reading it, you think it's crazy. And then as we've

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Speaker 1: progressed day by day since last week, it has become

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Speaker 1: less and less crazy. Where at number two for the Texans.

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Speaker 1: He had Tyree, which you see reports yesterday coming out

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Speaker 1: that the Texans might pass on a quarterback because they

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Speaker 1: like a guy like Tyrie or Anderson. And then you

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Speaker 1: see more reports that they have Levis above Stroud on

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Speaker 1: their board, and then you look back at his mock

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Speaker 1: and he has Levis at number seven to the Texans

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Speaker 1: trading up. So like, at first glanced, you like, what

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Speaker 1: the heck? And then as you see these reports coming out,

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Speaker 1: it's like, holy shit, Like was that like whole chaos

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Speaker 1: preface that he said just to cover up to like

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Speaker 1: him actually knowing? Maybe, but yeah, it's there are reports

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Speaker 1: like I think the strongest ones right now that are

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Speaker 1: really creating a ripple effect to the market are the

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Speaker 1: Texans passing on Stroud for maybe Levis, which I'd love

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Speaker 1: to get James's thoughts on, like the S two test

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Speaker 1: in terms.

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Speaker 3: Of I think you said, I think you just preface.

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Speaker 1: About like having a intelligence score, which I want to

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Speaker 1: hear your thoughts on that, and then really if they

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Speaker 1: go like Tyrie or Anderson at two and something came

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Speaker 1: out this morning about from I think it was Pro

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Speaker 1: Football talked out there aren't going to trade the number

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Speaker 1: two pick and they are going to take a quarterback second.

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Speaker 1: But the context behind it very much had Levis vibes,

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Speaker 1: where the mecho was saying that it's okay if he

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Speaker 1: wasn't good and like in college and he doesn't have

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Speaker 1: to start day one, which it very much had Levis five,

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Speaker 1: And subtly Richardson bought everything you're hearing backs up Levis.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: To kind of add on to that, Luke. In terms

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Speaker 6: of the S two tests, that's certainly a newer quarterback

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Speaker 6: intelligence test that has been servicing around where I've seen

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Speaker 6: Bryce Young did score first in that test, and Levis

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Speaker 6: did score high as well, and that kind of just

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Speaker 6: you know, kind of breaks down your decision making and

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Speaker 6: your just overall intelligence from processing information, and that kind

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Speaker 6: of is reflected in his snapped to throat time plus

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Speaker 6: or minus percentage we track as well at SI S

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Speaker 6: and he was second among all among quarterback prospects there.

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Speaker 6: So having that and his accuracy isn't you know, you

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Speaker 6: hear about the knock on his accuracy, he's still mid

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Speaker 6: tier about fifth or tied for sixth in these prospects

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Speaker 6: here in on target percentage and catch fule percentage, which

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Speaker 6: isn't terrible. It's not as bad as Anthony richardson, which

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Speaker 6: we'll talk later. But but yeah, I mean there's certainly

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Speaker 6: a case Levis could sneak in there at three. You

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Speaker 6: hear about Kentucky struggles on the offensive line from what

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Speaker 6: they had their weapons as well in their offensive philosophy

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Speaker 6: with their offensive coordinat that left, So there was a

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Speaker 6: lot of transition and a lot of overlying factors that

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Speaker 6: Loves had to deal with the Kentucky in this final year.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, trades are there, some of the skills are there,

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Speaker 6: so it wouldn't shock me to see him go up

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Speaker 6: to three as well.

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Speaker 1: And Zeriean does a great job, and like, hats off

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Speaker 1: to him because he is one of the few in

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Speaker 1: terms of like in the media to his stature that

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Speaker 1: does this. But he replies to a ton of tweets,

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Speaker 1: like people ask him straight up about his opinion, and

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Speaker 1: the replies don't show up on your timeline. So so

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Speaker 1: make sure you go to his profile and cook into

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Speaker 1: replies because he responds to a ton of tweets and

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Speaker 1: there are a ton of great nuggets and I want

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Speaker 1: to say one of them yesterday he was harping. He

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Speaker 1: basically said he didn't have any info, but he knows

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Speaker 1: that the Texans value the S two tests hot a lot,

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Speaker 1: which Levis scored I think second behind Bryce in terms

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Speaker 1: of like his two tests, which would very much align

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Speaker 1: as to why he had like the Texans might have

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Speaker 1: Levis ahead of Drought.

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Speaker 6: M HM.

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Speaker 2: One of his replies today, he mentions he kind of

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Speaker 2: buries the lead, but he said, in my mock, he's

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Speaker 2: referring to the mock or Stroud is being taken by

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Speaker 2: Baltimore if they move up. But what I said in

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Speaker 2: my mock says or a line is being said by

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Speaker 2: two or other three national people now, so exactly, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: his words getting out there. By the way, you're the

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Speaker 2: report you referenced from Pro Football Tech Talk, Miles Simmons.

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Speaker 2: He buries the lead to talk about case Keenum being

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Speaker 2: coach on the field. But the first sentence Texans are

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Speaker 2: expected to use their number two overall pick in this

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Speaker 2: year's draft on a quarterback. That wasn't the headline though.

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Speaker 2: The headline was case Keenum coach on the field.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was that you had a picture of case

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Speaker 1: Keenum too.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, yeah, jeez.

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Speaker 1: Berry's case Keenum is not clickbait today, Like I'm not

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Speaker 1: like clicking on because I'm seeing case Keenum glad I did,

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Speaker 1: but well.

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Speaker 2: And Keenum's actually fair to bring up because he was

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Speaker 2: brought in to the Rams when they took Jared Goff first.

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Speaker 2: So it's kind of a similar They're connecting the dots

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Speaker 2: as bringing a young quarterback, rookie quarterback have taste Keenum,

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Speaker 2: I guess as that whisper they want. But again, you're right,

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Speaker 2: not clickbait, but you got to sift through and find it.

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Speaker 2: Travis Reid as it pertains, and we'll move on. I'm

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Speaker 2: sure we'll dabble back and quarterback talk and it's all

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Speaker 2: a domino effect in terms of how it affects the

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Speaker 2: betting market. But just from a news perspective when we

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Speaker 2: read when you look at mocks and news, so rapaport,

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Speaker 2: the meeting yesterday with the Stroud and the Raiders was yesterday,

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Speaker 2: and then the idea of levis being considered higher. Just

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Speaker 2: from a news standpoint in the last seven days, where

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Speaker 2: are you at well?

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Speaker 5: I think one of the this is kind of a tertie.

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Speaker 5: Everything that blends in was Odell signing with the Ravens

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Speaker 5: and then him and Lamar kind of partying together be

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Speaker 5: it friends, which kind of implies that Lamar maybe is

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Speaker 5: going back there, even though there's been nothing on the

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Speaker 5: contract side. That's the direction it's heading. But that does,

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Speaker 5: like we mentioned, you know, Baltimore trading up for one

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Speaker 5: of these quarterbacks. Obviously Lamar going back would total there's

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Speaker 5: no reason to do that anymore. So I think that

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Speaker 5: does take away one of the trade partner options. So

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Speaker 5: that's one of the things in the news I think

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Speaker 5: does make an impact. But again that's all just hearsay,

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Speaker 5: that's all just Instagram back and forth in between those two.

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Speaker 5: But I think that is going to play into it.

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Speaker 5: Whether or not Baltimore does get Lamar, does somebody else

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Speaker 5: get Lamar, that's still I mean, that's still a question

303
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Speaker 5: mark that we're waiting that'll eliminate one of these teams

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Speaker 5: from the top four quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of Bryce Young and CJ. Stroud, So here are

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Speaker 2: a couple notes from these two from Evan Abrams, actions

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Speaker 2: director of Research. Folks, when qbs go one and two

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Speaker 2: in the NFL draft, beware because one of them is doomed.

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Speaker 2: Since the nineteen seventy NFL Merger qbs have gone one

310
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Speaker 2: to two in the draft eight times up the sixteen

311
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Speaker 2: total quarterbacks half were flops. Only once have both met expectations,

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Speaker 2: and it was fifty years ago when Jim Plunkett and

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Speaker 2: Archie Manning went one to two in nineteen seventy one.

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Speaker 2: Here are the rest nineteen ninety three Drew Bledsoe Myer

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Speaker 2: loser ninety eight, Peyton Manning and then Ryan Leif ninety

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Speaker 2: nine Couch, but Donovan McNabb was also in that draft.

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Speaker 2: Twenty twelve Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, the third a winner

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Speaker 2: and then a broken man. Twenty fifteen, Jameis Winston, Marcus

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Speaker 2: Mariota No.

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Speaker 5: No.

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Speaker 2: Twenty sixteen Jared Goff, Carson Wentz kind of the half

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Speaker 2: loss and a loss, and then in twenty twenty one

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence Great Zach Wilson Okay, then so CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 2: and Bryce Young both land top two chances are one

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Speaker 2: of them will flop.

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Speaker 1: I think it kind of just speaks to how valuable

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Speaker 1: the quarterbackt was is in the league that teams are

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Speaker 1: going to take players that might not be worthy of

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Speaker 1: a number two pick. A lot higher than they should be.

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Speaker 1: Out of anything. It is this, it's very much. Each

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Speaker 1: draft is unique to its own, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: I could. I would yeah, never bet off trends like

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Speaker 1: the whole like I would love a well will four

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks go one, two, three, four prop yes or no

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Speaker 1: available because it's never happened, which it never happening does

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Speaker 1: not influenced me whatsoever on whether it will happen.

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Speaker 2: I got two more nuggets from our friend Devin Abrams,

338
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Speaker 2: and then I want to find out what we're going

339
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Speaker 2: to bet today. Only one player was invited to the

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy four NFL Draft, and you probably never heard

341
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Speaker 2: of him.

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Speaker 4: The nineteen seventy four draft started on a Tuesday morning

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Speaker 4: with few spectators and by all accounts, only one player,

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Speaker 4: Ohio State's John Hicks, in attendance.

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Speaker 2: It was John Hicks rip, the only offensive lineman to

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Speaker 2: ever finish runner up for the Heisman, and he was

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Speaker 2: a bust. Since the nineteen seventy NFL merger. He's one

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Speaker 2: of only five Ohio State offensive players to go top

349
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Speaker 2: five in the NFL draft. Here are the other four.

350
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Speaker 2: Nineteen seventy eight Chris Ward bust nineteen eighty two, Art

351
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Speaker 2: Schleister Bust nineteen ninety seven, Orlando Pace arguably the best

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Speaker 2: tackle in NFL history. Check in twenty sixteen Zeke Elliott,

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Speaker 2: who enjoyed four good seasons then got fat but could

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Speaker 2: still jump in the Salvation Army Bill. Good for him.

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Speaker 2: So if c J. Stroud goes top five, history is

356
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Speaker 2: not on his side. So maybe he should slip to

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Speaker 2: seven to Vegas.

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Speaker 5: I'd still prefer money wise, if he goes number one.

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Speaker 2: Thanks, thank you, well, pray for CJ. Stroud, Luke and

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Speaker 2: Travis Sergis.

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Speaker 1: And while we've been on the air, Levis number two

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Speaker 1: odds have gotten smoked eleven to one. Yeah, and he

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Speaker 1: was twenty five one. Again we don't This is a

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Speaker 1: highly sensitive market. Like a couple of people could have

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Speaker 1: come in and bet fifty one hundred dollars on a

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Speaker 1: lot of twenty five to one and they would have

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Speaker 1: moved it.

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Speaker 2: James, this might be a good question for you because

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Speaker 2: once we get the results and say it is Stroud

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Speaker 2: young or young Stroud, how do you crunch the numbers

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Speaker 2: at Sports Info Solutions? How does this how could you

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Speaker 2: foresee this playing out? Does this kind of data factor

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Speaker 2: in it all based on historical context.

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Speaker 6: I think you look back at some of those pairings

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Speaker 6: that you read, and I'm thinking of Andrew luck who

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Speaker 6: is the generational number one, was supposed to go to

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00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 6: a head of Archie three at all times. Trevor Lawrence

378
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Speaker 6: was definitely supposed to go number one ahead of Zach

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Speaker 6: Wilson and that group of quarterbacks there. And then I

380
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Speaker 6: guess who wasn't a pairing but another generational quarterback in

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Speaker 6: Joe Burrow, who is the clear cut number one quarterback

382
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Speaker 6: that year. It feels like if there's not a generational

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Speaker 6: consensus top one overall quarterback and there's gout, you know,

384
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Speaker 6: you have these classes of quarterbacks at four or five deep.

385
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Speaker 6: Sometimes if there's ever toss up, it seems like almost

386
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Speaker 6: the best play is the quarterback that ends up almost

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Speaker 6: towards the bottom of that list. Yeah, Josh Allen ended

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Speaker 6: up being the best. Well him, Lamar Jackson. I guess

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Speaker 6: it's Lamar Jackson. You go boughtom in the first round

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Speaker 6: that year in twenty eighteen, Justin Fields Mac Jones, Well,

391
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Speaker 6: sorry that was the Trevor Leinz Draft, But yeah, those

392
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Speaker 6: guys might end up betan Zech Wilson.

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Speaker 1: So that's a great point and definitely like the the

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Speaker 1: expectation of a quarterback going in the late first almost

395
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Speaker 1: feels like getting a quarterback in the late first is

396
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Speaker 1: like a bargain with like the fifth year option, where

397
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Speaker 1: they aren't going to be held to the same expectations

398
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Speaker 1: as someone going number one.

399
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Speaker 3: Will whatever be that they might slip on the radar.

400
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Speaker 3: But yeah, I totally agree with James.

401
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 5: You're also going to a better team. Like the first back,

402
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 5: You're terrible if you get a guy at the end

403
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Speaker 5: of the first round. You usually have a playoff team anyway,

404
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 5: and you're just plugging in that quarterback and you're not

405
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Speaker 5: there to save the franchise. You're just kind of the

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Speaker 5: new plug and play guy.

407
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Speaker 2: Well, stay quarterback here. We want to Luke. I want

408
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: to get your reaction to the market movement on Anthony Richardson.

409
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 2: And this has moved even more since I saw you

410
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 2: put this out the other day. Anthony Richardson draft position

411
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: under four and a half, So pick under pick four

412
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 2: and a half, he's moved from minus two fifty and

413
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 2: it's now in that one sixty range. You saw it

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Speaker 2: go as low as minus one thirty five. Where are

415
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 2: we at with Anthony Richardson from a betting perspective.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is one like this is a great

417
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Speaker 1: example that you don't want to buy into the movement

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00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: too much with it being such a sensitive market. But

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Speaker 1: from my hypothesis of this really had to do with

420
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 1: like the Bryce going number one rumors started to come

421
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Speaker 1: out over the weekend. I actually I thought, I'm surprised

422
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 1: it took until Monday for it to get esteemed. But

423
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 1: in the under I think it was it was two

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Speaker 1: fifty and then it came all the way down to

425
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Speaker 1: one thirty. At one point it's started creeping back up.

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Speaker 1: But to me kind of had something to do with

427
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Speaker 1: if Bryce goes one, and it is true about the

428
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 1: Texans passing on Stroud, the Cardinals might have an inkling

429
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Speaker 1: to that where holding out for the trade.

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Speaker 3: Makes a lot more sense if CJ.

431
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Speaker 1: Stroud is there, because the value of the number one,

432
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 1: number three pick is exponentially higher with Street CJ. Stroud

433
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Speaker 1: on the board compared to the implied value right now

434
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 1: with the Levis and Richardson, which if Stroud doesn't go

435
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Speaker 1: too and he goes three, it kind of pushes everyone

436
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 1: back to the Richardson over where there are rumors that

437
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 1: the cult levis two where they might even take him

438
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: over Richardson. So it definitely like you go from two

439
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 1: outs where Richardson can go three or four to one

440
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: with the uncertainty of if the cults like Richardson or

441
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: levis more, which I think had to do with the

442
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: over taking action. It is starting to come back up.

443
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 1: I think when it got to like the minus one

444
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: thirty range, like that was like clear value because on

445
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 1: my sheet out of the forty Marksie track that I respect,

446
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: the under hit set about like an eighty five percent

447
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 1: threshold and the last seven it's been hitting at ninety.

448
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: I don't have interest in it because there's too many

449
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 1: variables that can really screw it up, and you have

450
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 1: a really tight window that more chaos with only four

451
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: picks to it makes it a lot less interesting to me.

452
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 1: But I don't want to buy too much into it

453
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: yet because the Cardinals trading is like the domino that

454
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 1: affects everything.

455
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's I'm glad you brought that up because

456
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 2: that connects to the market as of now, looking at

457
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 2: Vandal Anthony Richardson to go number three, overall at plus

458
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: one hundred, and that reflects Adam Schefter's report on Monday.

459
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 2: Adam Schefter ESPN at least least six teams, which I

460
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 2: did do six divided by thirty two on my phone

461
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 2: to get the exact percentage. That's about nineteen percent of

462
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: the league have asked the Arizona Cardinals about a trade

463
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: up to three. See that's the math I bring to

464
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 2: the show. These guys crunch other shit. Arizona is still

465
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 2: mulling over it. Those sixteams, six out of thirty two

466
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 2: interested in moving up, well, six out of thirty one.

467
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: Don't call the Cardinals. I want to go to James

468
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 2: Weaver on this though, and we're going to get to

469
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 2: your other Yeah, we've got other thoughts, but I want it.

470
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 2: We'll stay quarterback, just to stay on point with the

471
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,719
Speaker 2: disposition because it's popular. And that look, the first thing

472
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 2: that pops up when you want to go bet on

473
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 2: the draft his quarterback and the quarterback names pop up

474
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 2: when it comes to overall picks. Anthony richardson Sports Info

475
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: Solutions number thirty two ranked prospect thirty two. I had

476
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 2: to hit read more to scroll down and find this guy.

477
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 2: Where you had him, he might go number three in

478
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: the draft. So I would imagine Sports Info Solutions is like,

479
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: that's not a great idea. Is that fair to say?

480
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 3: Yeah?

481
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 6: I mean, I know, I certainly agree. He's an athletic freak,

482
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 6: obviously from his production in Florida, from his way he

483
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 6: can run the football. He sets combined records. You look

484
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 6: at pure accuracy metrics, dead last of all quarterback prospects

485
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 6: in this draft in catchuple throw percentage and dead last

486
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 6: in on target percentage. So by far the quarterback that

487
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 6: struggles with accuracy the most. Now, some might say and

488
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 6: points to oh, Josh Allen, we can fix up his accuracy,

489
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 6: but again, that took him three years with arguably with

490
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 6: at the end of the at the end of his case,

491
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 6: Brian Daball, who turns out to be one of the

492
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 6: best offensive mines in football. So if based on sample size,

493
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 6: we're looking at one guy that you can change and

494
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,919
Speaker 6: correct his accuracy over the history of everyone saying that,

495
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 6: oh can't really fix that, that's really not something that

496
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 6: can be fixed, then where do you go from there?

497
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 1: And I think that like that ranking on Richardson is

498
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 1: very much contuitor to what he has thought of where

499
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 1: you're not drafting him because he's a thirty fifth ranked player.

500
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: You're drafting him because he's there and you think he

501
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: has the potential to be the number one, Like he's

502
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: clearly not a top ten player in this class based

503
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,239
Speaker 1: off of who he's been. You're drafting him for the

504
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: ceiling that is number one ranking three or four years

505
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: from now.

506
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 6: Yeah. Absolutely, And a lot of our you know, a

507
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 6: lot of our scouts in the director of our scout

508
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,959
Speaker 6: even said, like those rankings are based on the total

509
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 6: package of what a prospect is going into the draft.

510
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 6: So if a player is more complete, he's going to

511
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 6: have a higher grade from us, in a higher skinner

512
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 6: report from US than what some of these other prospects,

513
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 6: i e. Like Richardson would be.

514
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 1: And like what does how much does like conference they

515
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: played played in, or like strength of opponent opponent factor

516
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: and where Richardson played in the SEC, and or like

517
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: Tucker Craft. That's when we're gonna harp on like he's

518
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 1: high on your board, where like how much is like

519
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: the conference and strength of opponents factor into those ratings.

520
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, So those ratings specifically with the big were factory

521
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 6: in a lot of our metrics as well, so not

522
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 6: too many of those. Only a few of them are

523
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 6: opponent dependant, depending on some the more advanced stuff. But

524
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 6: a lot of the grades come from our scouts who

525
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 6: look into more of the X and o's and more

526
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 6: their technique and things of that nature. So that's where

527
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 6: a lot of those come from as.

528
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: Well, the and looking at team to draft player Anthony

529
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 2: Richardson at Fandel Colt's the favorite at plus one seventy

530
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 2: five Tennessee, which if you missed that last episode, go

531
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: check that out. Titans possibly moving up. We did a

532
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 2: whole ten minutes on it. Tennessee at plus two hundred,

533
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,959
Speaker 2: Vegas plus five fifty. There's Seattle at twelve to one, Baltimore, Detroit,

534
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 2: and so on.

535
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 1: And like, out of those, like a lot of those

536
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: odds have trades implement Like.

537
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: As I'm asking, right with those six, would those six

538
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: I just rattled off, would that reflect not?

539
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: Like I think?

540
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: And some of them could if you were like I think,

541
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 1: out of all of those, probably the best quote unquote

542
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: value is probably Seattle. I would agree like by like,

543
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: I think Seattle should have better odds than the Raiders.

544
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: They should have better odds than I think, he said, Like,

545
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 1: I think they Seattle should be top three interns in

546
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: the Tennessee, Vegas, Seattle, that's the order, Like they should

547
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 1: have better odds in Tennessee because like Tennessee, you need

548
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: a trade. Like I think like the rumors, like the

549
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 1: rumors of Tennessee and Seattle, like there's nothing more, like

550
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 1: there's nothing stronger between the two, where like everything I've

551
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: heard about Seattle is it's Anderson or Richardson or Tyree,

552
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: and then Tennessee it's their interested quote unquote and a

553
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: quarterback and trading up, which is trading off from eleven.

554
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 1: Tennessee's odds are very reflective of just a bunch of

555
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: people betting into it.

556
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 3: Right.

557
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 2: But as we discussed, as we discussed we learned last

558
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 2: year about about thirteen months ago, now we learned what

559
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 2: it required for San Francisco to move up to go

560
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 2: get Trey Lance and the capital that was required possible

561
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 2: Travis am I missing. Now I'm pointing out Richardson because

562
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 2: of the odds reflect that he would be the favorite

563
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 2: to go third based on what Fandel currently presents in

564
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 2: the market from an Arizona trading, the third pick perspective,

565
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 2: and you can weave in Richardson here, what is your

566
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: latest developing thought on the Cardinals. Of course, as Luke said,

567
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 2: a lot a lot of what we're going to find

568
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: out on draft night relies on what they do with this.

569
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think a lot of it depends on

570
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 5: what those first two picks are too, because we mentioned

571
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 5: if Houston does pass on a quarterback at two, their

572
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 5: pick at three because comes much more valuable than if

573
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 5: it goes quarterback quarterback one too, So I think they're

574
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 5: going going to wait. I think this might be a

575
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 5: question that we don't get answered until, you know, the

576
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 5: night before the draft, or even the draft itself, because

577
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 5: I think there's so many question marks that what's going

578
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 5: to be available at three. Is one of those top

579
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 5: two quarterbacks going to be there? Will they not be?

580
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 5: So if you don't know if you're trading up to

581
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 5: get a Bryce Young or trading up to get a Levis,

582
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 5: then I think there's if they have If teams have

583
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 5: those guys way different on their board, they're not going

584
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 5: to make the same offer to get up to three

585
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 5: if they don't know the guy's going to be there

586
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 5: or not. So I think it's it's the domino, but

587
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 5: I think it's going to be standing for a while.

588
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: There's so there's the reporting, the latest there. We've got

589
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, We've got the camp reports, and of Jalen

590
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: Carter's going to visit, going on another visit today. We'll

591
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: get to him in a bit, and we go to

592
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 2: James Weaver from Sports Info Solutions Big Board. Luke kind

593
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: of teased it. We got questions, so we'll get to that,

594
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 2: but his big board and how it reflects the betting market.

595
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: Last piece of news, we'll go to Luke on this

596
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: uh Detroit which was bolstering its secondary and it has,

597
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 2: but they make a move. They trade cornerback Jeff Okuda

598
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: to the Atlanta Falcons. What does that do to your

599
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 2: thought process on what the Lions might do with their

600
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: draft pick right now sitting at six.

601
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that trade happened yesterday and Chefter tweeted out,

602
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: which was after I don't know what was up with them.

603
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: He was like retweeting a ton of stuff yesterday that

604
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: where I almost even put him on mute, and thankfully

605
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: I didn't, you.

606
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 2: Know, I want his his Sports Emmys updates.

607
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was crazy.

608
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: The whole Emmys thing like relax, he's just supporting his

609
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: co workers.

610
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 2: Like if if you put out plays then you hit them,

611
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 2: maybe I'll start just retweeting they're just to bug.

612
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 1: You, dude, I would, I support you, thank you. But

613
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: it happens, and I immediately, without even thinking twice, went

614
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: and bet Lions to take a corner first edition and

615
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: Falcons to take a defensive line. Like I didn't even think.

616
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: I just went and it ballooned up as you would

617
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: expect it to. I think it's in like it was plus.

618
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: I think it was plus money for both of them,

619
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: and now it's minus two fifty, which I think.

620
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 2: So you know, I'll give it to you right now,

621
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons, go ahead. Atlanta Falcons first drafted player defensive

622
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 2: lineman minus to fifty and the Detroit Lions first player

623
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 2: drafted cornerback minus two seventy.

624
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, neither of them should be that high at this point.

625
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: It's just there was a rush of betting into that

626
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: market and it reflects it where Falcons wise corner was

627
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: like both of these teams, it was corner d line

628
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: or the two positions that were favored where this trade definitely,

629
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: I don't want to say, eliminates, but creates a lot

630
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: more momentum for the other where Falcons were a corner

631
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 1: d Line and now d Line should probably be the favorite,

632
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: which it's definitely based off of Tyree falling to them

633
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: or maybe them taking a guy like Lucas VanNess is

634
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: a very hot guy that you're hearing that are involved

635
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: with the Falcons and muscles seeing Nolan. But to me,

636
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: this also increases the chances of like the Bijon vibes

637
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: where I have seen a lot of people that I

638
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: respect landing Bijon at eight to the Falcons, which definitely

639
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: increases the possibility. And then with the Lions, you have

640
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: Witherspoon somewhat becoming very likely, where I think the number

641
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: six pick, he's like definitely the favorite. Witherspoon is pretty

642
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: much leap frogged Gonzales as the favorite to be the

643
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: first corner. But the other, like I want to say,

644
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 1: the outlying ripple effect to this is Jalen Carter, where.

645
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 3: It seems like visiting with the Raiders today, Yeah, it.

646
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: Seems like he has a narrative for every pick at

647
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: this point, Like if you just if we're just eliminating

648
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: picks one through four. These were the landing spots where

649
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 1: it's over under seven and a half in Seattle from

650
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 1: experts like Rob.

651
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 3: Statton, no shot.

652
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: And then you have the Lions, who just traded their corners,

653
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: so they're probably going to be leaning corner.

654
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 3: In the draft, so Jalen's out there.

655
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: And then you have the Raiders, who there were reports

656
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: that I don't totally buy that they took him off

657
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: their board. I don't know why you would bring someone

658
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: in if they're completely off your board, like Jalen carters

659
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas right now. But the spots for Jalen

660
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 1: to land based off of the narratives that we had

661
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: are getting smaller and smaller. And that's where the trend

662
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: of Jalen falling to the Eagles or the Bears is

663
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: taking money.

664
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 3: It is. There's too much.

665
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: Uncertainty behind Jalen for me to get involved, like where

666
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: the Cardinals could trade back into a like from seven

667
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: to eleven, let's just say, and a couple months ago,

668
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: Jalen was the chalk to the Cardinals and the Raiders

669
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: are trying to pick for the Raiders the Cardinals good

670
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: trade which would make the under. There's just so many

671
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: scenarios where who knows, the Eagles could leap frog the

672
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: Barrige because they want Jalen, but that trade kind of

673
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: pushes Jalen back but also creates a certainty on the

674
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 1: two positions where Witherspoon is going to be the Lions

675
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: and every single mark that you read and then it's

676
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 1: probably going to be either Tyree van Nass or Bijon

677
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 1: to the Falcons at eight in terms of the mocks

678
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 1: that you're reading.

679
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: First cornerback drafted market Devin Witherspoon. We reacted live to

680
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 2: his combine on the last pod and he ran well.

681
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: Luke was excited about that for him and what it

682
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 2: could mean in terms of going to bettt is it

683
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 2: minus one seventy five James, I'll go back to you

684
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 2: against James Weaver Sports Info Solutions.

685
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: He's joining us.

686
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 2: His big board is at NFL Draft dot sports Infosolutions

687
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: dot Com on your big board right number seven overall,

688
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 2: Devin Witherspoon the top ranked corner Christian Gonzalez right behind.

689
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 2: We'll use this as a jumping off point to dive

690
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 2: into the big board. Luke and Travis have questions, comments,

691
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: and concerns we'll weave all those in, but we'll just

692
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 2: use this ash Ok.

693
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 3: There you go.

694
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 2: So concerns is the highlight of the of the three.

695
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 2: But just talking corner here and reaction to this deal.

696
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: And look, as I said, the Lions did make some moves.

697
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 2: They added Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, they get CJ. Gardner

698
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 2: Johnson in their back end as well. From a just

699
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: from a betting perspective, if you see Witherspoon at minus

700
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: one seventy five, I would imagine that would correlate well

701
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 2: with your number seven ranking.

702
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 6: Overall, Yeah, we have Witherspoon is the best corner in

703
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 6: this draft. He's really good in press man covered skills,

704
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 6: good ball skills, and he plays physical or to the

705
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 6: line of scrimmage. He's top two in every metric on

706
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 6: our leader board, whether it be yards per target allowed,

707
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 6: things like that. Nature one thing you can prove on

708
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 6: a little bit is an open field tackling. Sometimes you

709
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 6: got defenders that break off of his tackling skills. But yeah, overall,

710
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 6: the Witherspoon Gonzales one two is pretty consensus and it's

711
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 6: what we got. It s a s as well.

712
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: He's just so aggressive.

713
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: I feel like his like over aggressiveness is somewhat of

714
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: the fault to his lack of tackling efficiency.

715
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: And Witherspoon I would say is that this is an

716
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: overarching question for your your big board and you and

717
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 2: your rankings over at SIS. But this would be an

718
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 2: example of a player not being over ranked when you

719
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 2: make a comparison to a media ranking, to a zero

720
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 2: line or to uh just using him as an example.

721
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 3: No, yeah, for sure.

722
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's definitely some guys up there that you know

723
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 6: that correlate in line to what the moncrafts are. And

724
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 6: like I said prior, it's just based on kind of

725
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 6: a lot of that complete aspect of what a prospect

726
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 6: looks like rather than what could be down the road

727
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 6: that it happens to see what happens in our big

728
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 6: board rankings.

729
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: Okay, and when when you're going so like with a

730
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 1: big board, so like, how much would you say, because

731
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: I know you said that you have scouts that are

732
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 1: putting grades on them, like, how much is it? How

733
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: much does this big board like opinion versus just like

734
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: straight math.

735
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 6: Uh yeah, I would probably say it's it's about sixty

736
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 6: forty in terms of the grading from the scouts and

737
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 6: then the math and metrics and everything back that up

738
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 6: with the forty percent. Our scouts do a really good

739
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 6: job of breaking down film and really looking into these

740
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 6: players and diving into what their positives and negatives are,

741
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 6: pros and cons, what they're solid at, what they can

742
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 6: improve upon, and a lot of their back end stuff

743
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,919
Speaker 6: as well. So they do a good job with doing

744
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 6: a lot of that grading itself. And then yeah, we

745
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 6: have our on our site as well. We have our

746
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 6: leader board metrics with a whole host of different metrics

747
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 6: from what comparing to other players at the certain position,

748
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 6: what they had done in their final year of collegiate ball.

749
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 1: So do you have any do you have any guys

750
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: that you have like planted your flag on that you

751
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 1: just well love no matter where they are ranked, Like

752
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 1: for me, like I love Emmanuel Farbes, that's my personal opinion.

753
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: Do you have any like plant your flag guys that

754
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: you think you might be higher on than everyone else

755
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: that is like a sleeper that is going to be

756
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:21,959
Speaker 1: great in your opinion.

757
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 6: And I stidly don't have to plant my flag guy.

758
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 6: A guy that kind of interests me though a little

759
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 6: bit further down the board is Brian Brazi from Clemson.

760
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 6: He was a physical freak coming into Clemson and had

761
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 6: a really good productive freshman year and then kind of

762
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 6: some injuries in twenty twenty one, and then had some

763
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,720
Speaker 6: more injuries in twenty twenty two with along some personal

764
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 6: issues kind of derailed his last two seasons. But even then,

765
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 6: he's got the physical tools to be a really solid

766
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 6: defensive lineman in this league and minarists to see if

767
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 6: you can pull it all together, if he can get

768
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 6: to the right fit. Seeing him in like kind of

769
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 6: the second to third round here, and if a team

770
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 6: can get him back there and kind of helop what

771
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 6: he has, I think that'd be a really solid get

772
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 6: for them.

773
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: He was the athletic does like a freak piece before

774
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: every college football season, like the biggest freaks going into

775
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: this like athletically going to the season, like number one

776
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,760
Speaker 1: was Mazzie Smith and then he was number two briefly.

777
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 3: So it definitely lines.

778
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, that upside's definitely there. Again, the productions the question

779
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 6: with some of his well some of his injuries and

780
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 6: things of that nature, but can certainly make an impact.

781
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's dive into the nitty gritty of the

782
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 2: big Board. We've got a couple more nuggets from Evan

783
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 2: Abrams we can share before we wrap up. We're gonna

784
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 2: spend some time on this now, so again, James Weaver,

785
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 2: Sports Info Solutions very tight nifty product. If you go

786
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 2: on to a desktop and you've got you can go teams.

787
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 2: In terms of NFL teams, you can look at position

788
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 2: groups and over at Sports Info Solutions they've got Scotty

789
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: write ups, metrics, leader boards on every player. So we're

790
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: going to talk position groups and is a jumping off

791
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 2: point and we're trying to use this, James, to figure

792
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 2: out how we can take your big board, for example,

793
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 2: and then line it up with the betting market and

794
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 2: see where we could find some potential value. Let's discuss

795
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: the tight end market. Tucker Craft is ranked by Sports

796
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: Info Solutions as the number three tight end, but more importantly,

797
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 2: the twenty fifth overall ranked prospect. He's only behind Mayor

798
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:34,359
Speaker 2: in Washington thirteen and twenty one, respectively. In your rankings,

799
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 2: Tucker Craft is one hundred to one to be the

800
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 2: first tight end selected in the draft. He is ranked

801
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 2: sixth on FanDuel's odds listings. That's insane. That's crazy. Based

802
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: on where you have him and where the betting markets

803
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 2: have him, he's ranked higher overall now talking ranked higher

804
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 2: than Anthony Richardson, who we've discussed, Jordan Battle, Iris Torrance. Well,

805
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: we'll go to James first and then we'll let Luken

806
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 2: Travis you know, pro stuff at you or something virtually.

807
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 2: What makes SIS so high on Tucker Craft?

808
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, So also to add into that, Tucker Craft is

809
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 6: at the same grading level of both Michael Mayer and

810
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 6: Darnell Washington on our end in terms of what his

811
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 6: overall composite grade was, and the reason behind that is

812
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 6: he's got the skills that relates to a complete tight end,

813
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 6: whether it be catching a football, being a security blanket,

814
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 6: find the open holes in the zone, as well as

815
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 6: being a nasty, physical run blocker. He's coming from South

816
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 6: Dakota State, so obviously, you know, you talk about the

817
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 6: talk about the potential issue of coming from lesser competition,

818
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 6: but one of the reasons why he's ready to high

819
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 6: is because of his run blocking skills. He's been able

820
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 6: to put guys in the ground. He's a relentless effort guy,

821
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 6: play play out when he's called upon to make his

822
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 6: Blox he finishes off. One of the reasons why he's

823
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 6: kinda I mean with the market is what it is,

824
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 6: is he's coming off a couple seasons with some injury concerns.

825
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 6: This past season he had missed six games with a

826
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 6: high ankle spring where he had some torn ligaments, so

827
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 6: we had to get surgery on that, which was kind

828
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 6: of an issue. And in twenty twenty one he missed

829
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 6: a few games as well with an injury. But yeah,

830
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 6: he can be a solid why and an age tight end.

831
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 6: And in comparing him to like someone like Dalton Kincaid,

832
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 6: who is I believe the highest or the favorite to

833
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 6: be the first tight end selected, Kincaid's definitely more of

834
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 6: that pass catching role where he has some tools he

835
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 6: needs to work on in terms of being a better

836
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 6: run blocker, but in terms of our big board and

837
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 6: just being that overall complete package. That's where kind of

838
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 6: Tucker Craft falls into the grating that he did.

839
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 2: Travis, did you brush up on your Jack Rabbit's depth

840
00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 2: chart before today's show? This is your test.

841
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 5: I did, yeah, because when I looked at the tight ends,

842
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 5: I knew I thought I knew like Sam Laporta, I

843
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 5: thought that was as deep as a cut as we'd

844
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 5: need to go. So I had not heard of Tucker Craft.

845
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 5: When I saw your big boards, I had to go

846
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 5: in do some research. Yeah, I think what you said

847
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 5: makes a lot of sense. I was actually more surprised

848
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 5: at Ken Kaid being fourth on your list, like you said,

849
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 5: considering he's the betting favorite you know, rather than you

850
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 5: know him being at third. I do love your Darnell

851
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 5: Washington ranking because he's been a favorite of mine. He seems,

852
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 5: like we mentioned, physical freaks, and he's just a monster

853
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 5: that just breaks all the charts. So I do like

854
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 5: him having second ranking there in that So it does

855
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 5: make sense the way you're projecting these players where you're

856
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 5: combining the run blocking and their past catching ability, where

857
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 5: some teams might not care about the run blocking and

858
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 5: how they use their tight end, so they'll have them

859
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 5: higher on their board than you know, vice versa. So

860
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 5: the way you're ranking them I think makes more sense now.

861
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 5: But I can see how a team might say, I

862
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,359
Speaker 5: don't care if that guy ever blocks for a run

863
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 5: in his life. As long team runs out there and

864
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 5: catch the ball, that's what we need in our offense.

865
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 5: So that's why he might go a little bit higher.

866
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: Brendan, I will give you one guess, and I am

867
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 1: not betting Tucker Craft to be the first tight end taken.

868
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 1: But if there is a chance there's one place that

869
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 1: he could go that I don't think anyone would be shocked,

870
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 1: even though it is crazy.

871
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 2: What New England because he has his name as the owner.

872
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: I didn't even connect those dots. But at fourteen, that

873
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: would be the first tight hand taken. And I mean

874
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:39,720
Speaker 1: we have seen way crazier things.

875
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 2: Maybe he will bet it now everybody.

876
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 1: I'll only share that ticket after it wins. Who there

877
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 1: was a jack rabbit drafted recently? I forget who he was,

878
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: the running back young Patriots took him again another connection Jesus, Yeah.

879
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 6: We do have a tight end from South Dakota State

880
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 6: is already one of the top five Ish argum leag

881
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,320
Speaker 6: tight ends in the league right now in Dallas Goddard.

882
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 5: That's right.

883
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,760
Speaker 1: And like my other question is, like when you're making

884
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: when these rankings get spit out, like when you're seeing

885
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 1: them and you're comparing them to let's say, like a

886
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 1: Jeremiah ranking or someone that generally we respect. Craft being that, well,

887
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 1: let's just say like, have you ever like tinkered them

888
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 1: or you're like this is just too crazy, or you

889
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 1: just ride out and trust trust the process one hundred percent.

890
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 6: We write out the process. I know, like I'm not

891
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 6: too hands on with the A lot of these, a

892
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 6: lot of these are coming from our ops and scouting department,

893
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 6: but from what they view and what they see as

894
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 6: what's good and what's bad, it's they definitely ride out

895
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 6: what their process is and they stick to it.

896
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 5: John Michael Schmidt's at fourteen. Overall, he's a center from Minnesota. Now,

897
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 5: there's not a huge first center off the board market

898
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 5: that I know of that's out there, but he was

899
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 5: a name that he has expected draft position for me

900
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 5: of around forty. Is that just the issue of positional

901
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 5: value where the team leagues not valuing center that highly?

902
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 5: But overall, you think he's just going to be a

903
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 5: really good value and maybe like the second round or

904
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:07,439
Speaker 5: something like that.

905
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, definitely from looking at him, he seems to be

906
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 6: the computer hear. He looks to be the complete prospect

907
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 6: at center, both with his physical traits and with his

908
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 6: size and his intelligence as well being the center position

909
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 6: and knowing what to do and knowing the different blocking

910
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 6: schemes of that nature. He seems to be certainly well

911
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 6: packaged as being the best center in the draft.

912
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 2: You can go to NFL Draft dot Sports Infosolutions dot Com.

913
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 2: You can filter however you'd like, and you can go

914
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,840
Speaker 2: to positions edge rusher for example, or just get the

915
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 2: entire full top one hundred.

916
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:43,399
Speaker 1: It is one of the most beautiful platforms I've seen.

917
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,720
Speaker 1: Tell very tight, very tight product. It's very good, premium.

918
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,240
Speaker 1: It has a premium feel. That's a compliment, okay.

919
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 2: And the final nugget from our friend Devin, Drafting the

920
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 2: five to ten Bryce Young is a gigantic risk and guys,

921
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 2: I could not believe this stat when it came across

922
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 2: my desk. Since two thousand to only four total qbs

923
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 2: have made an active NFL roster at five to ten

924
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 2: or shorter. Only two were drafted. So here's the overall list.

925
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 2: Joe Hamilton seventh rounder in two thousand, what he Danceler

926
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 2: undrafted in two thousand and two, Quintin Flowers undrafted in

927
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, and our video game study buddy friend Kyler

928
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: Murray the top pick in twenty nineteen. Plus if you

929
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: throw in stets and Bennett. This is the first time

930
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,919
Speaker 2: in twenty years two qbs under six feet are even

931
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 2: listed on the NFL draft board. You have to go

932
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: back to two thousand and three with Seneca Wallace and

933
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 2: Brad Banks. But are we worried about size mattering?

934
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 1: This kind of just comes into like like the number

935
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 1: one principle one betting into the draft that, like your

936
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 1: personal opinion on the matter should not matter now that

937
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: the combines behind us, which it was definitely a like

938
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 1: peak attention in terms of his size. If anything, the

939
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,040
Speaker 1: only thing that you're seeing on his size matter mattering

940
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 1: is someone like Chris Simms or someone like putting out

941
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 1: content to defend it not mattering. It definitely has lost

942
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 1: momentum in terms of mattering, which goes hand in hand

943
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: and him being the number one pick favorite at the moment.

944
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 5: I think it matters less than today's NFL as well,

945
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 5: just because they're protecting the quarterbacks so much more than

946
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 5: they used to. I mean, if this was like the nineties,

947
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 5: I would I don't think you could touch him because

948
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 5: he would just get destroyed.

949
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's his weight, It's not his height, Like his

950
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 1: weight is the problem, not as height.

951
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 2: Any bets Luke Travis that we would like to recommend

952
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:33,439
Speaker 2: are taking right now.

953
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: I one that like has caught my attention. It was

954
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: Vikings positional odds wide receiver. It's nothing too fun, it's

955
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 1: plus two hundred. But I don't want to say that

956
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: the Ravens are out on wide receiver because I don't

957
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: think Odell solves their problem. But the Ravens were one

958
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,759
Speaker 1: of the hurdles for a wide receiver to get to

959
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 1: the vikings to a lot of the vikings. That a

960
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 1: lot of the mocks that you see the wide receivers

961
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 1: that would be fits at twenty four or I can

962
00:48:58,719 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: do twenty three.

963
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: Twenty three Addison.

964
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 1: The Ravens had like Max have the Ravens like scooping

965
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: the last one and all of a sudden, wide receivers

966
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 1: aren't on the board where if Odell and the other

967
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 1: moves that they've made has created the Ravens odds to

968
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 1: I think corners the heavy favorite now where one of

969
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: the wide receivers could get to the vikings. And if

970
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 1: I'm making a mock, I put Addison there every single time.

971
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 1: Which wide receiver at two to one I think is fair.

972
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: It's not sexy it's not fun, but a lot of

973
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 1: these positional props have kind of gotten drained. But if

974
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 1: there are moves like trades like don't think, just jump

975
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:32,800
Speaker 1: Another thought.

976
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 2: For James before we wrap looking at the big board

977
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 2: you've got mapped out. One that jumped out to me

978
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 2: too was Josh Downs.

979
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 6: I'm actine gonna go a little contray into the big

980
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,400
Speaker 6: board here on a matter that something that some of

981
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 6: our guys wrote. One of my colleagues wrote an article about,

982
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 6: and that's the converting the college route tree to the

983
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 6: NFL route tree and kind of projecting production based on

984
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 6: that aspect. Players that are usually drafted in the receivers

985
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 6: usually draft in the first three rounds, who are to

986
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,880
Speaker 6: do more and run more unique routes in college actually

987
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 6: show less of a performance in the NFL in their

988
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 6: first few seasons. So Josh Downs and Zay Flowers both

989
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 6: rank at the top of a unique route standpoint of

990
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 6: what they were asked to do in college. What does

991
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 6: show success is running close to what is the NFL

992
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 6: route tree, and Josh Downs Jay Flowers both rank at

993
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 6: the bottom of that list. Kind of interesting to think

994
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 6: about maybe Downs and Flowers not being ready to go

995
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,840
Speaker 6: right out of college. Downs did rank high in a

996
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,360
Speaker 6: lot of production metrics some of his other stuff, like

997
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 6: he was thirtieth in targets above expectation as well as

998
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 6: fifteenth in target share. Zay Flowers is also you know,

999
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 6: he was the one man banded at Boston College. Yeah,

1000
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 6: those are two guys you might see at the end

1001
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 6: of the first beginning of the second. But overall, this

1002
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 6: wide receiver market, I think it's wide open a guy

1003
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 6: like Quentin Johnson. If you want a guy that can

1004
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 6: fly down the field and you know, go get a

1005
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 6: ball above a receiver, and you'd rather have that over

1006
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 6: a slot guy, which who can come as a dime

1007
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 6: a dozen later in the draft. He can certainly fly

1008
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 6: up boards as well. It's gonna be more of a

1009
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 6: fit aspect to see which one then goes.

1010
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:03,040
Speaker 2: First, Travis, any bets you recommend giving out now?

1011
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, we talked about the tight end market earlier. Mayor

1012
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 5: was the favorite for a long time, and now Kincaid

1013
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 5: has flipped them. But really, with most of the mocks

1014
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 5: that I'm seeing, it's still pretty much fifty to fifty there.

1015
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 5: But now you can get Mayor at plus one fifty

1016
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 5: at first tight end. I think if you haven't got

1017
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 5: into that market, I think that's a good place to start.

1018
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 5: There really hasn't been any news that I've seen for

1019
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:29,320
Speaker 5: Kincaid leaping over Mayor. I think at plus one fifty

1020
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 5: there he's a good bet for first tight end off

1021
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 5: the board.

1022
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 2: James Weavers, Sports Info Solutions, thanks so much for stopping by.

1023
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 2: Your perspective was excellent. I thought you gave us some

1024
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: really good information and look forward to more of your

1025
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 2: coverage as the draft nears.

1026
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, thanks for having me on. I was definitely a

1027
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 6: blast and looking forward to cover the rest of the

1028
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 6: up until the draft time.

1029
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 2: Travis Reed, Luke Swain, myself, Brendan glas Sheen will be

1030
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 2: back next week, two weeks to go before the draft,

1031
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 2: so two more episodes before the first round. As a reminder,

1032
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 2: the NBA plays have arrived, so you can check out

1033
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 2: Action's NBA betting podcast Buckets episodes every weekday. At the

1034
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 2: end of the week, we have our UFC betting preview

1035
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: coming as well. Thanks so much for listening everybody the

1036
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:15,439
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning into

1037
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 2: this latest NFL Draft betting update. Myself, Luke and Travis.

1038
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 2: We'll talk to you again next week.

1039
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1040
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1041
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1042
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:37,600
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