1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 3 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, A 4 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: big parade of retail earnings on the way. I'm Tom 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: Busby in New York. I'm Caroline Hetkee here in London. 6 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: Where we're asking where are all the women money manages? 7 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: Speaking to Fames investor Helena Marcy. I'm Brand Curtis in 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: Hong Kong. More than nine out of ten people in 9 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: China are planning to travel in the coming weeks. Where 10 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: are they going and who stands to benefit? That's all 11 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven, FREEO 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 1: New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB 14 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: Digital Radio London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around the 15 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg 16 00:00:55,360 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: Business App. A day to you. I'm Tom Buzzby, and 17 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: we begin today's program with a flood of earnings reports 18 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: about to come out from some of the nation's biggest retailers. 19 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: And joining me now to give us some insight into 20 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: what to expect and what it all means for the economy. 21 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg retail reporter Brendan Case. Brendan, thank you so much 22 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: for joining us, Hey, thanks for having me on well. 23 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: With inflation still rising, borrowing rates high and expected to 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: move even higher, it has been a tough time for 25 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: consumers and for retailers. And last week, boy, we got 26 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: some pretty disappointing outlooks for the year ahead from two 27 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: retail giants, both Dow components. So, Brendon, let's start with Walmart, 28 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: the world's largest retailer. In Brendan, Walmart's CFO John Rainey 29 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: told us this past week that value, proposition and convenience, 30 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: as he calls it, is something consumers are liking. But 31 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: and it's a big butt. There's a lot of macro 32 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: uncertainty as as we look across the consumers across the globe, 33 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: but certainly here in the US, balance sheets are getting thinner. 34 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: You're seeing saving rates decline, and we really haven't been 35 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: in a position where we've seen the fed titan at 36 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: this rate. And so as we look forward and give 37 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: guidance for the full year, we're adopting a cautious outlook, 38 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 1: and we want to make sure that we're responsive to 39 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: whatever environment that we're going to find ourselves. So Brended 40 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: of Walmart is being cautious, as is Home Depot, the 41 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: other big retailer that reported last week. Do other retailers 42 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: share this caution and broader concerns about the economy right now? 43 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: The ones that Rainy is talking about, Yes, they really do, 44 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 1: Tom And just to hear that from Walmart, you know, 45 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: if you think about the broad trends, the big picture 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 1: out there is that if you're in retail, you want 47 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: to be selling at very you know, the lowest possible 48 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 1: prices and selling basic goods. Right now, Walmart has a 49 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: reputation for doing both, and even it's taking such a 50 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: cautious tone. When you think about some of the companies 51 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: about to report, Target, Coal's, Macy's, you're talking a lot 52 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: more about discretionary items, and I think we'll probably hear 53 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: a similar tone of caution for their outlooks this year. Now. 54 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: On another note, Millard Drexler, he's own proprietor of clothing 55 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: retailer Alex mill told us consumers are stressed by inflation 56 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: and higher prices. And despite the unemployment rate at more 57 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: than fifty year low, right now, people should worry that 58 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: the robust labor market is starting to change. Here's another 59 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,839 Speaker 1: monkey ranch. A lot more jobs may be at risk. 60 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: Let's hear from Drexler. Now, they have jobs, but I 61 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: think the huge amount of layoffs and the publicity and 62 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: they get has to have people worried about their job security. 63 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: And there's so many unknowns going on in the world today, 64 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: you know, internationally in America. All right, So, Brendan, is 65 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: this another big problem that's going to weigh on retailers? 66 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: The ones you know that we're expecting to hear from 67 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: this coming week time will tell. I think from the 68 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: retailer's perspective, that's more of kind of a good news 69 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: bad news kind of thing. You know. The bad news 70 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: is that, certainly we've heard a lot of layoff announcements 71 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: from tech companies, bang, some of the most powerful companies 72 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: in the economy. It looks a little different from the 73 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: retailer's perspective because you know, employment is still very high. 74 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: You know, people have jobs and wages are going up. 75 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: Both Walmart and home Depot over the last few weeks 76 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 1: have said they're going to be raising wages, which are 77 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 1: sort of a signal that they're having trouble hiring people 78 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: at their at their current wages, and that they need 79 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: to be boosting them just to be able to fill 80 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: the jobs they have. Now, you know, if the Fed 81 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: keeps tightening, is the economy going to get to a 82 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 1: situation where overall unemployment starts to rise, people start losing jobs, 83 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: you know, in across different industries. Time will tell if 84 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: that happens, that's going to be a whole new ballgame 85 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: for the retailers, all right, Brendon. Now, there's also the 86 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: post pandemic reopening, a lot of pent ump demand for travel, 87 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: for dining out, for experience, ential spending on concert, sporting events, 88 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: the like. None of that comes cheaply. That means all 89 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: those things are also competing with retailers for our money. 90 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: Now at the same time, of course, you need to 91 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,039 Speaker 1: buy clothes, you have to eat, you have to go 92 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: out every now and again. So where does this leave 93 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: retailers right now? Given that, like we just heard Drexler say, 94 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: people are worried. You know, the retailers last year they 95 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: started struggling with this shift that you're talking about last year, 96 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: and in fact, it happened a lot more quickly than 97 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 1: they were expecting. The effect was that companies like Walmart, Target, 98 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: they ended up with a whole lot more inventory than 99 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: they thought they were going to need. You know, you're 100 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: talking about home goods, you're talking about kitchen appliances. That 101 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: stuff was just you know, stacking up in their warehouses 102 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: and they ended up having to liquidate it market down, 103 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: you know, pretty heavy discounts that took a big toll 104 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: on profits last year, and this year it's a pretty 105 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: similar outlook. Now, well, let's dig a little deeper into 106 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: some of the names that are reporting, and some of 107 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: them have navigated the pandemic better than others, some of 108 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: them have bounced back better than others. But let's talk 109 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: about some of the big use. We'll start with the 110 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: discounters Dollar Tree, Dollar General. I mean, these stores have 111 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: seen tremendous ups, tremendous downs. Where do they stand right now? Yeah, 112 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: So Dollar Tree is going to be reporting next week, 113 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: and that's going to be an interesting test because just 114 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: on February twenty third, Dollar General issued a profit warning. 115 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: It said it got hit pretty bad from the impact 116 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: of the winter storms that we had right before Christmas. 117 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: It also came out with a pretty underwhelming outlook for 118 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: this year, and you know, one thing that they flagged 119 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: was increased interest expense. But kind of lurking in the background, 120 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: there is the concern that maybe lower income consumers, which 121 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: is kind of their bread and butter, you know, maybe 122 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: those people are really starting to you know, run out 123 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: of gas in terms of their spending ability. They're getting 124 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: squeezed by whole range of costs, and you know, are 125 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: they going to be able to keep spending the way 126 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 1: they've been spending For companies like Dollar Tree and Dollar 127 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: General to you know, continue making the gains that they 128 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: have been in terms of sales, that's a that's a 129 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: big question going into these earnings reports. Let's talk about 130 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: now the middle income, the targets, the coals, how do 131 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: they stand. So Target is going to be the first 132 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 1: one to report. They go on on Tuesday, and they 133 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 1: actually have a whole investor day planned as well, so 134 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: they're going to be getting into the details of their 135 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: other outlook for this year, and that's going to be 136 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: really interesting. You know, Target does sell a lot of 137 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: food and basic goods, but the proportion of those goods 138 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: as in terms of their total sales, it's much smaller 139 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: than Walmart, and Target, you know, by contrast, is quite 140 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: a bit stronger than Walmart in terms of the percentage 141 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: of discretionary items itselves. And so its outlook is going 142 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: to tell us a lot about what, by all accounts, 143 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: is a very well managed retailer. What does a company 144 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: like that see in terms of their demand trends for 145 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: this year after being kind of upended last year and 146 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: speaking of upended Cole's competitor in a lot of ways 147 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 1: to Target, how does it look for Coals? Yeah? See, 148 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: and there again with Coals, with Macy's, you're talking about 149 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: all of the discretionary exposure that Target has, but with 150 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: much less of the kind of basic essentials that Target 151 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: also sells. So I think if you're looking at a 152 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: company like Coals, you're looking at Macy's, you're talking about 153 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: a company that is trying to convince customers that, you know, 154 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: they should buy stuff. Do they really need it? You know, 155 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: people's definition varies. You can't put off buy and clothes forever. 156 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: But that's a real question mark, and I think there's 157 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: a lot of concern about whether the outlook for those 158 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: companies is going to be quite weak this year as 159 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 1: consumers continue to struggle with inflation and just try to 160 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 1: cut back on all of their non essential spending. And 161 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: speaking of non essential, let's talk warehouse clubs. Now, we 162 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: heard from Walmart and of course they own Sam's. But 163 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: this week we hear from Costco the Biggie and after 164 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: that BJ's. They have really had to be nimble and 165 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 1: navigate through the pandemic. What's the outlook on Costco the Biggie? 166 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: So Costco has been a big winner during the pandemic. 167 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 1: This is a company with a clientele that skews higher 168 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: income and it's a company with a reputation for selling 169 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: very competitively priced goods. It also sells a lot of food, 170 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: and so it's getting people in the door with food sales. 171 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 1: And once they're in the door, you know, a lot 172 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: of them, especially those higher income levels, maybe have a 173 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: little more money to spend. They're finding a lot more 174 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: to buy in Costco than they did before. And so 175 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,959 Speaker 1: Costco's comparable sales had a little gip in November. There 176 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: was a lot of concern that that was that was 177 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: a signal of a big slowdown, but since then December 178 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: January have been quite good for Costco. We'll find out 179 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: more about their outlook when they report earnings, but by 180 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,359 Speaker 1: all accounts, they've been a big winner from the pandemic 181 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: and it would be a surprise if they come in 182 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: with a particularly weak outlook. So that'll be a big 183 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: watch item. Well, Brendon, that is a lot to digest, 184 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: and I want to thank you. That's Bloomberg retail reporter 185 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: Brendan Case. And coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, we 186 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: go to London to learn about veteran investor Helena Morrissey 187 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: and how she is setting out to tackle the lack 188 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: of female fund managers in the UK. I'm Tom Busby, 189 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our 190 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: global look ahead at the top story for investors in 191 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up 192 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: later in our program and look at some of the 193 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: challenges the Biden administration is facing right now. But first 194 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: we go to London and Bloomberg daybreakhost Caroline Hepger to 195 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: learn more about veteran investor Helena Morrissey and how she's 196 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: setting out to tackle the lack of female fund managers 197 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: in the UK Caroline Gender diversity efforts here in the 198 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: UK have stalled. The proportion of female money managers is 199 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 1: stuck at twelve percent that according to City was Alpha 200 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: Female Report for twenty twenty two. Helena Morrissey is the 201 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: chair of the diversity projects. She is hoping to change 202 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: that with a new Pathway program training sixty women from 203 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: thirty three companies to take their top jobs in money management. Now. 204 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 1: I sat down with Morrissey to discuss the issue and firstly, 205 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: just why the numbers are still so low for women 206 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 1: at the top of finance is quite a mystery, to 207 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: be honest, because as my own career suggests, you know, 208 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: it's a great career for anybody who wants to be 209 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: measured on results. I just spoke at a law firm 210 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: where the women were saying, you know why they're so 211 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: few female fum managers, and I said, it's it's particularly 212 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: mystery when I'm talking to you where you've got fifty 213 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: percent plus lawyers at the intake level anyway, and fund managers. 214 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 1: You know, we've stayed very very though it's not really 215 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: moved for the seven or eight years since people collected 216 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: the data. I do think there's an image problem that 217 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: people look and they think, oh, fun management, it's not 218 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: for me. It would be very isolated to be a woman. 219 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: It's kind of macho environment. And some of this is 220 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,079 Speaker 1: not really true. And we've got to get out more 221 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: and explain that actually, fun management it's great career, you know, 222 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: if you want to be judged on your ultimate results. 223 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: If you like an analyst, you know, analysis, that's great 224 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: for lots of women love analyzing companies and things. So 225 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: we've got to just get out and tell the story. 226 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 1: I think that's really interesting because I mean, surely, if 227 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: all the industries, the finance industry, with all of its metrics, 228 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 1: would be the most merited crack it. One might think 229 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: that you would actually find the industry very obsessed with 230 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: facts and figures and data that they we would promote 231 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: beautiful performance. Well exactly. I mean I remember when I 232 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: was you know, I have a lot of children, and 233 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: when i'd come back from return to leave, you know, 234 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 1: if I still had great performance numbers, then no one 235 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: really could criticize. I mean, obviously I was investing for 236 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 1: the long term as well. I didn't always have great numbers, 237 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 1: of course, but that's not possible if you run Monday 238 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: for many years. But it was a great testament to 239 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: one's ability to have performance data that was completely indisputable, 240 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 1: just completely objective. Do you still meet men, I know 241 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 1: that you must meet so many people in the city 242 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: of London. Do you still meet men in the city 243 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 1: of London who don't believe that, who question whether women 244 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,599 Speaker 1: are as good at managing money as men? Well, I 245 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 1: don't think anyone would ever admit at these days. And 246 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: I think there is still though a bit of a 247 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: sort of cultural impediment as well. I think men, many 248 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 1: men now and especially in our industry, really are just 249 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: as frustrated as the women that we're not seeing more 250 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: progress on this. So there are great allies. But I 251 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: do also know that some people think this is, you know, irrelevant, 252 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: you know, it's all about you know, they just don't 253 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: see it that actually women might actually bring something new 254 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: to the table, that we might add something, And in 255 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: fact the data does suggest that mixed gender teams are 256 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: the best performing. I don't think that's any great shock 257 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: to anybody. Really, we bring different things to the table. 258 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: So I'm afraid yes, one or two, I don't think 259 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: dinosaurs anymore, but certainly pockets where you're like, oh, I 260 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: don't really think they're on board with this idea. Yeah, 261 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: because certainly the story in private equity, for example, is 262 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: that the case is still very much having to be 263 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: made either to invest in women lead businesses. You know 264 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: that the decision makers about where the money is allocated 265 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: is often very skewed, and so you know that cases. Yeah, 266 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: we think of it as being all fashioned, but it 267 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: might not be. And I'm at this stage thinking, let's 268 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: not put a business case because obviously we've had business 269 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: cases going back decades now. You know, McKinsey did a 270 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: great business case on why it would better to have 271 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: more women on boards than not to have any, showing 272 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 1: the financial impact. I think we now have to make 273 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: a personal case, you know, actually say your team will 274 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: be better, your business will be better, You'll have more 275 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: connection with your clients. You know. It's it's more of 276 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: a motive case. I'm actually want to win over hearts 277 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: and minds now, because I see again I see people saying, oh, 278 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: sure we'd love to have more women, but not actually 279 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: doing things, for example, managing people inclusively, sort of assuming 280 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: everybody's got the same sort of lives and we need 281 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: to just shake that up completely, I think, and say 282 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: as she's in your interest to encourage more women into 283 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: the industry and to stay. I think that's really interesting 284 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: to talk about winning over hearts and minds, because this 285 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: project to me feels much more muscular. This feels like 286 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: getting results on the ground. It feels like a more 287 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: muscular diversity project than we've seen before, which has been 288 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: talk maybe topped down. This is very much bottom up. 289 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 1: It is. I mean, we have a great advisory council 290 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: which is CEO level, and you know we need their 291 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: leadership as well. We need them to say, actually, this 292 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,119 Speaker 1: is more than peripheral to our business. This is important. 293 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: We need the regulators to be really pushing this agenda 294 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: as well and saying actually it's important around conduct, around 295 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: what it means to be a great person in the 296 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: finance industry, about making sure our reputation sell that. But 297 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: we do need bottom up and what we've seen at 298 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: the Diversity Project and we now have fifteen different work streams. 299 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: Our most recent is the fifty plus group. Not that 300 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: I'm behind that even though it asson see to have that, 301 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: but we have these groups that are really led by 302 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: the underrepresented people. So you know, the talk about black 303 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: group is led mainly by black people. Now, I think 304 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: then you get the passion, you get the absolute drive, 305 00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: you get absolute determination. But we can't do it alone people. 306 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: You know, I learned from the thirty percent Club experience 307 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 1: that was an initiative to create better gender balance on 308 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 1: boards at least thirty percent women. We only made headway 309 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: when we involved men in that, and so we do 310 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: need to be I love your expression, Karlin muscular, because 311 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 1: you know, it should feel very robust. It should be 312 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: like a You've got a business objective here, Let's improve 313 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: diversity of talent. Let's make sure that people are included 314 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,360 Speaker 1: when they join if they're diverse, and let's achieve better 315 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: results for our clients. That's a very business oriented approach, 316 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: but yeah, it needs a bit of everybody involvement, nuts 317 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:40,239 Speaker 1: and bolts. You mentioned differing reports, so I'll clarify. It's 318 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: either thirty two or thirty three or thirty four companies 319 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: that are taking apart thirty three this year in the 320 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: year thirty three? Got it clear? Is it the biggest 321 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 1: fund managers? Is it the big players? Or are they 322 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: smaller companies. It's actually at all sizes and there isn't 323 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: really a theme. So first out the gates, I want 324 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 1: to give them credit where it's due were Schroeder's. So 325 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: Peter Harrison, CEO of Shrona, has gone in touch with 326 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 1: me the day I just dropped an email to the 327 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: Advisor Council saying we've got this idea of a pathway 328 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: program female fund managers, just a very targeted intervention, he wrote. 329 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: Within a minute, I think back saying that yes we 330 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: need this, and the numbers are quite quite remarkable. I mean, 331 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 1: currently in the UK's estimated fewer than two hundred women 332 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 1: female fund managers in Britain as a whole. If you've 333 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: got sixty people on the program, you know that's very 334 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: very sizeable. Do you have targets specifically for the number 335 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 1: of women that you would like to see become senior 336 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: fund managers as a result of this? So yes, I'm 337 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: going to take the word senior to mean you're a 338 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: named fund manager on an account. And that's sometimes where 339 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 1: the confusion lies because people think, oh, I'm part of 340 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: a fund management team. I've got the job description fund manager, 341 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: but I'm not named on an account, and that's the 342 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: prestigious role. You've just summarized it, Karen. I mean, sixty women. 343 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,719 Speaker 1: They're not all going to make it, presumably, but if 344 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: we run this program three or four years, we could 345 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,360 Speaker 1: double the proportion of female fund managers. I mean that's 346 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: assuming we take all the jobs, which might not be 347 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: quite plausible. But you know, if you add sixty to 348 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: the numerator and the denominators, roughly three and a half 349 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: percent increasing. So this is where I'm really excited about 350 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: what the Pathway program can do. This is not just 351 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,120 Speaker 1: sort of you know, whistling in the dark or having 352 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 1: some sort of vague hope. This is saying we'll put 353 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: this number of women through it and we'll make sure 354 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 1: that they get fund management roles. So Helena Morrissey Fair 355 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: speaking to me at Bloomberg headquarters here in London. She's 356 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,719 Speaker 1: the chair of the Diversity Project, talking about her Pathway 357 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: program initiative. If it is successful, it could in just 358 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 1: three years double the number of female fund managers in Britain. 359 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: I'm Carolyn Hebger here in London. You can catch us 360 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,199 Speaker 1: every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You're at beginning at 361 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street. Tom, 362 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: there you Carolina, coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Are 363 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: things getting even dicier for President Biden? Internationally? I'm Tom 364 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: Busby and this is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg 365 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg eleven three oh 366 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: to Washington, DC, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg 367 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 1: one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixteen 368 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: to the country, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London 369 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: DAB Digital Radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business 370 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg day 371 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: Break Weekend, hight Tom Busby in New York with your 372 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,119 Speaker 1: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 373 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: the coming week. Russia's invasion of Ukraine will continue to 374 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: be in sharp focus this coming week with a state 375 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: visit to the White House by Germany's Chancellor. For more, 376 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 1: let's to our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington, 377 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 1: our sound on host Joe Matthew. Tom. Thanks, it's a 378 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 1: very high profile visit and the timing of Oloff Schultzon's 379 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: trip is particularly important. Joining us now to talk about 380 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Whitehouse reporter Josh Wingrove, Josh, it's great to 381 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: see you. Thanks for joining us. Thank you. This is 382 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: an important visit. But I want to back up to 383 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: kind of set the foundation for why it's even happening. 384 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 1: As President Biden returns from his trip to Ukraine marking 385 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: the one year anniversary, the first anniversary of this war effort, 386 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: how important was it for him to actually show up 387 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: in person for this occasion, a big surprise trip. You know, 388 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: they've sort of been suggesting he might not even be 389 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: able to go, the security be too brutal. So he 390 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,479 Speaker 1: sort of popped up there out of nowhere, you know, 391 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: a big show of support for Ukraine as well as 392 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 1: for the president, mister Zelinski. And you know, Biden seemed 393 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 1: we had a thrilled, candidly to be able to get there. 394 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: And then he went for his previously planned trip to Poland, 395 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: where he gave a speech trying to hold together solidarity. 396 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 1: You know, what is clear is that Joe Biden is 397 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 1: trying to head off sort of weakening knees or fatigue 398 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: among NATO in the West more broadly when it comes 399 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: to supporting Ukraine in this fight, and he's sort of 400 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: warned in that Poland speech like, Hey, this is not 401 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: going to be over tomorrow. You know, we are going 402 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 1: to have to dig in here for the long haul. 403 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: Because it looks like Vladimir Putin is digging in for 404 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: the long haul. So he's just trying to sort of 405 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 1: hold it together. And it was sort of a very 406 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: momentous occasion, and you know, the G seven on Friday 407 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 1: spoke about this as well. So the big question will 408 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 1: be sort of like what next will come in terms 409 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: of support, And I think that's the context for Chancellor 410 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: Schultz is a visit to Washington in the coming week. Here. 411 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: Secretary of State Anthony Blinkoln this week says Ukraine will 412 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: win this. Putin's first objective was to erase Ukraine from 413 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 1: the map to a racist identity, to absorb it into Russia. 414 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: That has failed and we'll never succeed. Now there's a 415 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 1: fierce battle going on for the territory that Russia has seized. 416 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 1: Ukraine's gotten about fifty percent of what Russia has taken 417 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: since last February in order for Ukraine to win the war. 418 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: The US needs Germany's support. This next visit, as we 419 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 1: mentioned olof Schultz this week will be critically important. Is 420 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,239 Speaker 1: it Is it all about Ukraine? It seems to be 421 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: pretty heavily about Ukraine. White House hasn't given us full 422 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: rundown yet, but you know, the Germany and the US 423 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: have been sort of the two pronged head of the 424 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: question of what arms and what types of arms you 425 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: give to Ukraine. And remember go back a year or 426 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: even a little less in a year, and there were 427 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: a lot of nerves in the West about if we 428 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: give this type of tank, for instance, or this type 429 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 1: of weapon or this type of missile, will that be 430 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,239 Speaker 1: seen as escalatory and necessarily will putin seize on that 431 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: and use it as cover fire to escalate even further. 432 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: So instead they've tried to just do a slow boil, 433 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 1: you know, slowly adding different types of stuff. And now 434 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 1: the crossroads that they're at is the question of fighter jets. 435 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 1: Where President Hyden was in Europe, you know, face calls 436 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: and protests demanding F sixteen jets, are asking for them, 437 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,479 Speaker 1: I guess I should say, and this is a big 438 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 1: question right now, So I think that'll hang in the air. 439 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: The Germans also have had similar concerns about being too escalatory, 440 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: when when it comes to this stuff, the other stuff 441 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: is just more basic blocking and tackling Joe. Where like 442 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,679 Speaker 1: in terms of ammunition, the US is like concerned that 443 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: they don't want to leave the Ukrainians with weapons that 444 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 1: don't have anything to shoot out of them. And you know, 445 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,679 Speaker 1: I think we're starting to get to a place where 446 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 1: the US military, like industrial production lines, are starting to 447 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 1: raise questions about, you know what, what can we produce, 448 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: what do other allies have in their stocks? Have we 449 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 1: emptied the cupboard? And if we've emptied the cupboard, are 450 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,400 Speaker 1: we making enough stuff, you know, to start rolling off 451 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: lines to keep keep the Ukrainians armed. So I think 452 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: we're getting into a little bit of that sphere. It 453 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: is less flashy than Okay, we're going to give tanks 454 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: for the first time, which of course the US and 455 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,239 Speaker 1: Germany agreed to do recently, or we may or may 456 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 1: not give fighter for the first time, but it's just 457 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: as important, and I think I think it's fair to 458 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: expect that that's going to be a big part of 459 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: that conversation between the President and Chancellor dedmtro Kalaba, the 460 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, talked about the list, the 461 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: wish list that you're referring to, communition tanks, the long 462 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 1: range Masal's plans. They are the most wanted weapons on 463 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: the list, the most wanted weapons on the list. Of course, 464 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 1: they're going to take whatever they can get. And by 465 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 1: the way, they've been asking for fighter jets for the 466 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: better part of a year, right, we were talking about 467 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: mid twenty nine. Potentially at the beginning of this they 468 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,399 Speaker 1: haven't gotten them. Tanks may be rolling, but you wonder 469 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: at this point if that's ever going to happen or 470 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: is it inevitable, And that we've seen this conversation where 471 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 1: we kind of first start by saying no, then we say, well, 472 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: that wouldn't be effective, and then we end up giving 473 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 1: them exactly what they're asking for. Right. Right, It's like 474 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 1: a parent who doesn't want to give a place to 475 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: another kid. Right, It's like no, no, may wait till 476 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 1: you're eight, wish you no. It does feel like the 477 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 1: dial has moved steadily, So the question is will Joe 478 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 1: Biden stop moving the dial? And he's been pretty categorical 479 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 1: he's not been saying, I don't know, but F sixteens 480 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,440 Speaker 1: maybe you know, we're gonna have conversations with their allies. 481 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: He's been saying, no, we're not going to give F sixteens. 482 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 1: So he has not softened his position or left himself 483 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,719 Speaker 1: elbow room to do a quick one eighty here. So 484 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: if planes do arrive, the signals are that it won't 485 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: be soon. Now that said, there are lots of people 486 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: calling for it. Allies might change their mind, other countries 487 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 1: might change and calling for training. You know, if you 488 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 1: don't want to give them the jets, at least train 489 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: them in case they get the jets right, which is 490 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 1: a big part of the equation as well, and in 491 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,400 Speaker 1: particular will that training be done likely outside of Ukraine. 492 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: So it gets a little logistically tricky. What's the real 493 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 1: worry though, that putin says fighter jets, how dare you 494 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 1: let's start attacking Americans? Or the potential for creep that 495 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: you know, hey, once we go in the air, borders 496 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: start to mean less. What happens if somebody gets shot 497 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 1: down over Poland or god forbid, missiles go in the 498 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: wrong direction. Is that more of the concern which we 499 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: almost had a case of fall, which was turned out 500 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,879 Speaker 1: to be a defensive missile that had landed in Poland. 501 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: But thought everyone's hackles up there, you know, I think 502 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 1: that they're just worried that Putin would seize on it 503 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 1: as like rhetorically, you know, as Biden has been very 504 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: very clear and left no wiggle room on US boots 505 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: on the ground in Ukraine. No one is talking about 506 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: that right now, But the US equipment being provided to 507 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians for the Ukrainians to fly, it's you know, 508 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: if that is shot down, you lose the plane. The 509 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 1: Ukrainian pile would die, but it wouldn't necessarily trigger crisis 510 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 1: where American soldiers are dying, and now Biden is in 511 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: a politically tricky position, it would they'll trigger crisis if if, 512 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 1: if Joe Biden faces a situation where Vladimir Putin says, okay, 513 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: this is now a bridge too far. Now they're flying 514 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: your fighter jets, they're firing your missiles, they're firing your 515 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: not so much in your tanks. I mean, how far 516 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,680 Speaker 1: are you willing to go here? I now consider this 517 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 1: US involvement. So that is why they're sort of tiptoeing 518 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: down the hallway trying to find the board that doesn't creak. Wow, 519 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: great line when Olaf Schultz is here. Is it Is 520 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 1: this a thank you for cooperating or actually, mister Chancellor, 521 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 1: we need a lot more from you. What's the conversation. 522 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: I think it's a thank you. Joe Biden has been 523 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,679 Speaker 1: pretty quick to defend Germany. There've been other countries that 524 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 1: think that Germany has been a little soft on the 525 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 1: hard military support. They've been more in this sort of 526 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: sphere of financial support and that kind of stuff. Biden 527 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 1: has really headed that off. He's really frankly moved to 528 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 1: save face for Germany because I think Biden is of 529 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,360 Speaker 1: the mind that every country is going to be able 530 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: to do what they're going to be able to do, 531 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: subject to their own domestic political concerns. Right, So just 532 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: like he doesn't want Germany finger wagging America about what 533 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 1: it or will not do, Biden has really stopped short 534 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:44,719 Speaker 1: of doing that. So I think it'll be a love 535 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: in more or less. I mean, they are really in 536 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: lockstep on a lot of these issues, to the extent 537 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: that there are disagreements there. You know, show of solidarity, right, 538 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 1: full show solidarity. So we'll see more and more and 539 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: more and more of that. Remember, in the background of 540 00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: this wasn't too long ago we were talking about few 541 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 1: crises in Europe and they still have lots of pressures 542 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 1: in that regard. We could hear talk about that as well. 543 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: There's questions about whether the US can continue to sort 544 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: of backfill Russian fossil fuels for Europe and for Germany 545 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: in particular, in the infrastructure needed to do that. It's 546 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: so complicated because of course the US doesn't build you know, 547 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: LNG terminals or for terminals for instance, because Joe Biden 548 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: tells them to, you know. So it's very complicated. But 549 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: that that energy side of it is going to be 550 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 1: a big one as well, in part because Republicans will 551 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:30,959 Speaker 1: raise it. They want America to be sort of an 552 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 1: energy superpower for Europe. Biden has been sort of trapped 553 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: within his coalition to the Democratic Party where he kind 554 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 1: of wants to keep gas prices low and help Europe 555 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 1: keep the lights on, but also not be looking to 556 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,959 Speaker 1: go drill, baby, drill, you know. Bloomberg White House reporter 557 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: Josh wind Grove with US on Daybreak weekend. I'm Joe 558 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: Matthew and Washington. Tom back to you. Thanks Joe Bloomberg. 559 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew, host of Sound On, reporting from our Bloomberg 560 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 1: ninety nine one newsroom in Washington, and you can hear 561 00:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,239 Speaker 1: sound on live weekdays five to six pm right here 562 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Travel 563 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: and leisure picking up in Asia as people in China 564 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,120 Speaker 1: start to get out of the house again as pandemic 565 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 1: measures ease up, and that means opportunities for the airlines, 566 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:17,480 Speaker 1: but also some headaches. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. 567 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at 568 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 1: the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm 569 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 1: Tom Busby in New York. The lust for travel is 570 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 1: picking up as pandemic measures ease in Asia, but there 571 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: are still some hurdles and some regions in Asia will 572 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,239 Speaker 1: benefit more than others. For more, Let's go to Hong 573 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis and his 574 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:49,440 Speaker 1: colleague Doug Chrisner. Tom Asian Airport so starting to see 575 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 1: a big lift in traffic. That's partly because Chinese travelers 576 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: are now on the move with a country having finally 577 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: opened up, but travel from many other countries in the 578 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: region is also on the rise. And to break it 579 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: down a little, a survey by Bloomberg Intelligence shows Japan 580 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: Airport Terminal likely to benefit the most, especially Kansai. South 581 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: Korea's Incheon Airport is also expected to be very busy. 582 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 1: Those two are expected to capture the bigger share of 583 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 1: China's traffic than pre pandemic levels in terms of demand, 584 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: The BI survey suggests that ninety two percent of residents 585 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: in China plan to take at least one trip over 586 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 1: the next three months. And what airlines would likely benefit 587 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 1: the most. China's three biggest airlines are certainly among them, 588 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: along with Korean Air and Ana. They all could receive 589 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: a boost. Joining us now is Danny Lee, a Bloomberg 590 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: reporter on Asia transport. But I want to cover first 591 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 1: some of the red tape issues like capacity for the 592 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: airlines that's been a big problem, landing rights and even 593 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 1: things like visas. How much will that set back? This 594 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: whole boom really moved well. Boarders are opening up at 595 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 1: a whole range of different times. No one really expected 596 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 1: China to open up, so airlines have to plan and prepare. 597 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 1: Authorities have to plan and prepare. If you're an airline 598 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: in particular, you need to make sure you have the staff. 599 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:15,880 Speaker 1: You need to make sure you have the planes ready. 600 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 1: Nothing's going to go on at a flick of a switch. 601 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 1: That's a very interesting point because during the pandemic, tens 602 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 1: of thousands of pilots, flight crewel groundworkers, back office personnel 603 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 1: they lost their jobs. How easy has it been for 604 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: these major carriers to staff up. It's been a real problem. 605 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 1: And in Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific, the city's main airline, 606 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 1: is waiting to two and a quarter years to see 607 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,240 Speaker 1: full recovery. They lost a lot of staff over COVID, 608 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 1: and they've introduced pay cuts, permanent pay cuts, and that 609 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: has decreased the interest of people willing to rejoin the 610 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: industry overall, because they know they can earn money at 611 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 1: a much higher price elsewhere, and especially during the cost 612 00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: of living. And we've seen airports in Europe in the 613 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: US who've struggled a staff up over the last summer, 614 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:09,000 Speaker 1: We've seen chaos at immigration, at baggage, and at customs 615 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 1: because there are just not enough staff. Ultimately, so it's 616 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 1: the ranking in terms of demand. The ranking for outbound 617 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: trips for Chinese people, is it North Asia first, and 618 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 1: then Southeast Asia and then Europe and maybe even after 619 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: that the US. Yeah, that's right. It's much easier for 620 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 1: Chinese tourists to go close to home. North Asia was 621 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 1: always very popular with Chinese outbound travelers, Southeast Asia equally too. 622 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 1: But there's also the question of cost. Chinese consumers have 623 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 1: been really hit hard over the past three years through COVID, 624 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: so if you're wanting to take a trip to Europe 625 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 1: to the US, it's very expensive right now. And whereas 626 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 1: there's a lot more capacity, as in more seats available 627 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 1: for shorter regional flights, so that makes it easier for 628 00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 1: Chinese tourists to plan and book appropriately. But also you 629 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 1: are having to deal with in the US and Europe 630 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 1: lots more red tape, shall we say, Visa's documentation, So 631 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 1: it's not very straightforward for this recovery to be broadspread. 632 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,120 Speaker 1: It's always going to be close to home, North Asia, 633 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 1: South Asia, Southeast Asia rather. One of our colleagues was 634 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 1: speaking with June Bailleu of Trabecca Investment Partners, and she 635 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: was quoted as saying Asian airlines are going to go 636 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 1: through the roof aviation is investable Again, do we have 637 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: a sense of the profits that carriers are going to 638 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 1: deliver in twenty twenty three, Not yet, but we are 639 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,759 Speaker 1: seeing signs in twenty twenty two that twenty twenty was 640 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: a very good year for airlines. For example Singapore Airlines 641 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: they saw record revenue and that was double the same 642 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: period last year. Danny, thanks so much for joining us 643 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 1: with your insights. Danny Lee, Bloomberg reporter on Asia Transport. 644 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 1: I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. You can catch 645 00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 1: us every weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia beginning at 646 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,160 Speaker 1: seven am in Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street. 647 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,279 Speaker 1: Tom thank you, Brian and Doug. And that does it 648 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again 649 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,360 Speaker 1: Monday morning at five am Wall Street time for the 650 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 1: latest on markets overseas and the news you need to 651 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 1: start your day. I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. Top 652 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:22,240 Speaker 1: stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.