1 00:00:02,750 --> 00:00:04,430 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. 2 00:00:04,890 --> 00:00:05,569 Speaker 2: Podcasts. 3 00:00:05,890 --> 00:00:06,430 Speaker 3: Radio. 4 00:00:06,850 --> 00:00:07,270 Speaker 4: News. 5 00:00:18,060 --> 00:00:21,619 Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lodge Podcast. 6 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:22,700 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Weisenthal. 7 00:00:22,940 --> 00:00:23,940 Speaker 4: And I'm Tracy Allaway. 8 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,270 Speaker 1: Tracy, we're here in Chicago, second year in a row 9 00:00:27,290 --> 00:00:29,510 Speaker 1: that we've done a live show here in a Great 10 00:00:29,570 --> 00:00:30,180 Speaker 1: city for us. 11 00:00:30,250 --> 00:00:30,610 Speaker 3: That's right. 12 00:00:30,750 --> 00:00:32,550 Speaker 4: We're going to be talking to someone who we spoke 13 00:00:32,590 --> 00:00:35,379 Speaker 4: with last year, but a lot has changed in 12 months. 14 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,150 Speaker 4: This is someone who is trying to build a market 15 00:00:39,310 --> 00:00:40,690 Speaker 4: for compute, right? 16 00:00:40,850 --> 00:00:41,030 Speaker 3: Right. 17 00:00:41,050 --> 00:00:42,810 Speaker 1: So we're going to be speaking with Don Wilson. He 18 00:00:42,830 --> 00:00:46,070 Speaker 1: is the founder and CEO of DRW. He is really 19 00:00:46,229 --> 00:00:49,850 Speaker 1: at the forefront of this effort to build futures markets 20 00:00:49,890 --> 00:00:52,810 Speaker 1: for things like GPUs and so forth. So check out 21 00:00:52,830 --> 00:00:56,030 Speaker 1: the conversation. We talked to you, Don, basically exactly a 22 00:00:56,050 --> 00:00:57,930 Speaker 1: year ago, last time we were here. We talked about 23 00:00:57,950 --> 00:01:01,770 Speaker 1: things like GPU futures. But in like AI time, it 24 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: might as well have been 10 years ago because so 25 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,369 Speaker 1: much has changed. We want to talk GPU market structure, 26 00:01:07,430 --> 00:01:08,030 Speaker 1: all that stuff. 27 00:01:08,390 --> 00:01:09,570 Speaker 2: The last couple of days. 28 00:01:09,390 --> 00:01:12,419 Speaker 1: Have actually been kind of interesting in the AI trade world. 29 00:01:12,940 --> 00:01:17,060 Speaker 1: Everyone's watching CoreWeave. Everyone's watching CoreWeave bonds. There was an 30 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,819 Speaker 1: anthropic investor meeting before the IPO. 31 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:21,179 Speaker 3: A little jitters. 32 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,770 Speaker 1: Maybe their revenue only grew up, whatever, 50% versus 51%. 33 00:01:25,770 --> 00:01:29,130 Speaker 1: I don't know the exact numbers. Give us your read 34 00:01:29,270 --> 00:01:33,060 Speaker 1: right now. Is there a little slowdown happening in AI? 35 00:01:33,530 --> 00:01:35,699 Speaker 1: Are we shifting into a lower gear? Is there anything 36 00:01:35,740 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: in the trajectory that's changed? 37 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: Any new thing that's growing this fast is not going 38 00:01:43,020 --> 00:01:49,110 Speaker 2: to grow at a constant rate. The first derivative isn't 39 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,230 Speaker 2: going to be constant. The second derivative isn't going to 40 00:01:51,250 --> 00:01:54,310 Speaker 2: be constant. So to me, this is just kind of 41 00:01:54,710 --> 00:01:59,340 Speaker 2: expected volatility. I don't know, maybe people went on vacation 42 00:01:59,380 --> 00:02:02,420 Speaker 2: in August so they didn't consume as many anthropic tokens. 43 00:02:03,980 --> 00:02:06,270 Speaker 1: But you're not reading anything more into it than that. 44 00:02:06,390 --> 00:02:07,490 Speaker 3: I'm not. OK. 45 00:02:08,070 --> 00:02:11,889 Speaker 4: Wait, so with something like CoreWeave, a big part of 46 00:02:11,930 --> 00:02:14,990 Speaker 4: what you're doing with Compute Exchange and silicon data is 47 00:02:15,030 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 4: this idea that if you create a market for compute, 48 00:02:17,900 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 4: then cloud companies can hedge their future revenue streams and 49 00:02:21,580 --> 00:02:25,139 Speaker 4: the cost of capital can come down. In a week 50 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,380 Speaker 4: like this, when you see the yield on a CoreWeave 51 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,630 Speaker 4: bond at 15%, what does that tell you? Is the 52 00:02:31,650 --> 00:02:34,710 Speaker 4: suggestion that, well, if compute futures were up and running, 53 00:02:34,730 --> 00:02:37,370 Speaker 4: all of CoreWeave's problems would be solved? 54 00:02:37,510 --> 00:02:41,190 Speaker 2: I do think that it's highlighting the massive need for 55 00:02:41,250 --> 00:02:47,690 Speaker 2: risk management products. Think about if you're a neocloud and 56 00:02:47,710 --> 00:02:54,130 Speaker 2: you sign contracts with the most creditworthy people companies in 57 00:02:54,169 --> 00:02:57,470 Speaker 2: the world, then you're fine, right? But there are a 58 00:02:57,490 --> 00:03:02,060 Speaker 2: lot of other consumers of GPUs that are not the 59 00:03:02,100 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 2: most credit-worthy companies in the world. And if you're a neocloud, 60 00:03:04,740 --> 00:03:06,180 Speaker 2: you want to be able to sell to them. And 61 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:10,100 Speaker 2: so I think what the market's saying is, if you're 62 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:15,870 Speaker 2: selling on-demand compute or you're selling to less credit-worthy entities, 63 00:03:16,430 --> 00:03:20,150 Speaker 2: then your cost of capital is just going to be higher. Now, 64 00:03:20,550 --> 00:03:25,989 Speaker 2: imagine once GPU futures exist, you can, as a neocloud, 65 00:03:26,410 --> 00:03:29,290 Speaker 2: buy the GPUs, deploy them in your data center, sell 66 00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:34,269 Speaker 2: a strip of GPU futures, and then just sell on-demand 67 00:03:34,310 --> 00:03:38,710 Speaker 2: compute if you want. Or sell six-month contracts to less 68 00:03:38,750 --> 00:03:42,290 Speaker 2: creditworthy companies that can post a big percentage of the 69 00:03:42,770 --> 00:03:44,090 Speaker 2: contract value up front. 70 00:03:44,610 --> 00:03:47,010 Speaker 3: And the market is going to. 71 00:03:49,130 --> 00:03:52,380 Speaker 2: Reward companies that do that that basically just have on 72 00:03:52,420 --> 00:03:57,700 Speaker 2: a giant basis trade heavily, their cost of capital is 73 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:58,540 Speaker 2: going to be much lower. 74 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:04,300 Speaker 1: Terry mentioned, okay, the GPU futures don't exist yet. And 75 00:04:04,340 --> 00:04:07,580 Speaker 1: there's some message from the White House, like national security, 76 00:04:07,620 --> 00:04:09,700 Speaker 1: et cetera. And he's like, I don't get it. Do 77 00:04:09,740 --> 00:04:13,140 Speaker 1: you get it? Can you tell us something about why 78 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,990 Speaker 1: these products don't exist yet? Maybe what the regulatory hesitancy 79 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,380 Speaker 1: is about the listing? 80 00:04:19,150 --> 00:04:21,290 Speaker 4: Yeah, and just remind us what the state is of 81 00:04:21,390 --> 00:04:22,710 Speaker 4: regulatory approval at the moment. 82 00:04:22,830 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 2: So right now, there's a comment period that's open. The 83 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 2: CFTC extended it. If they don't do anything, then the 84 00:04:34,779 --> 00:04:38,669 Speaker 2: futures can get listed November 9th. Now, conveniently, November 9th 85 00:04:38,750 --> 00:04:39,890 Speaker 2: is after November 3rd. 86 00:04:39,910 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 3: And so maybe.... 87 00:04:45,470 --> 00:04:47,830 Speaker 2: Some people in Washington will be more comfortable with the 88 00:04:47,890 --> 00:04:52,450 Speaker 2: Compute Futures launching. I don't know. I can't explain what 89 00:04:52,490 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 2: the concern is. I've heard all sorts of different theories. 90 00:04:57,500 --> 00:05:01,339 Speaker 2: One theory is that some of the indices are not 91 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:02,180 Speaker 2: very robust. 92 00:05:02,580 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so I'm actually very curious about this, the 93 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:11,590 Speaker 1: robustness of the indices, because a lot of GPUs are 94 00:05:11,650 --> 00:05:13,429 Speaker 1: sold via bilateral offtake. 95 00:05:13,830 --> 00:05:14,289 Speaker 4: Agreements. 96 00:05:14,350 --> 00:05:14,570 Speaker 3: Right. 97 00:05:14,610 --> 00:05:17,630 Speaker 1: So it's like Anthropic has some deal with SpaceX. 98 00:05:17,710 --> 00:05:17,950 Speaker 3: Right. 99 00:05:17,990 --> 00:05:20,670 Speaker 1: To use their compute. We don't really know the price 100 00:05:20,750 --> 00:05:24,890 Speaker 1: of that. Why should anyone feel confident then when they 101 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: look at an index of GPU prices that like it 102 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,820 Speaker 1: actually represents something resembling the save the market here? 103 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,450 Speaker 2: Listen, I think it's buyer beware. learn about the index 104 00:05:36,490 --> 00:05:41,529 Speaker 2: that you're trading futures on. Silicon Data, that team has 105 00:05:41,550 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 2: done an amazing job of collecting massive amounts of data, 106 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 2: and it's focused on on-demand compute from neoclouds. There are 107 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 2: a lot of neoclouds. There are very few hyperscalers. So 108 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 2: their index is focused on neoclouds, of which there are many. 109 00:05:59,980 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: And there is a lot of transparency about on-demand compute. And, 110 00:06:07,460 --> 00:06:11,339 Speaker 2: you know, they've done a very good job to create 111 00:06:11,380 --> 00:06:17,210 Speaker 2: an index that, you know, will be IOSCO compliant. 112 00:06:17,650 --> 00:06:20,950 Speaker 3: That's the benchmark. Some of the other. 113 00:06:20,810 --> 00:06:25,250 Speaker 2: Providers I don't think have ever heard the phrase IOSCO compliant. 114 00:06:25,270 --> 00:06:25,930 Speaker 1: So IOSCO is the. 115 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:34,290 Speaker 2: I don't know, it's the kind of group of international 116 00:06:34,330 --> 00:06:37,190 Speaker 2: regulators that I think in 2013 came up. 117 00:06:37,210 --> 00:06:41,150 Speaker 3: With a best practices approach for indices. 118 00:06:41,610 --> 00:06:43,650 Speaker 1: Oh, we should do an IOSCO episode one day. 119 00:06:45,589 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 4: Now that you've been working on the futures contract for 120 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 4: a while, can you maybe tell us what you've learned about, 121 00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:54,340 Speaker 4: I guess, the pricing trajectory for GPUs over time? Because 122 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,260 Speaker 4: this is one of the concerns, right? You can say 123 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:00,270 Speaker 4: you're bullish on the compute markets, But it doesn't necessarily 124 00:07:00,310 --> 00:07:03,580 Speaker 4: mean that you're bullish on the value of a single GPU. 125 00:07:03,620 --> 00:07:07,339 Speaker 4: It can depreciate over time. Maybe it gets more efficient 126 00:07:07,380 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 4: and people move on to new things. 127 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:15,210 Speaker 2: So that is the trillion dollar question. I'm glad I 128 00:07:15,290 --> 00:07:19,170 Speaker 2: asked it. And that is why these futures need to exist. 129 00:07:19,250 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 2: Because nobody knows what the value of a B200 will 130 00:07:25,900 --> 00:07:30,140 Speaker 2: be four years from now, five years from now. And, 131 00:07:30,940 --> 00:07:36,310 Speaker 2: you know, and so by introducing futures contracts that trade, 132 00:07:36,650 --> 00:07:40,130 Speaker 2: you know, way out, I think initially the CMEs futures 133 00:07:40,170 --> 00:07:42,650 Speaker 2: contracts are going to go out three years and, you know, 134 00:07:43,230 --> 00:07:44,990 Speaker 2: as they become more liquid, they'll. 135 00:07:44,750 --> 00:07:47,690 Speaker 3: Go out more. 136 00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:53,220 Speaker 2: But, you know, that enables people to hedge that. Back 137 00:07:53,520 --> 00:08:00,060 Speaker 2: in November of, you know, almost a year ago, the 138 00:08:00,100 --> 00:08:05,140 Speaker 2: price of H100s, the hourly on-demand price, had just been declining, declining, declining, 139 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 2: and everybody was saying, why do you need GPU futures? 140 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:09,740 Speaker 3: These things just go down. 141 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:17,660 Speaker 2: And then, you know, right around Thanksgiving, they turned around 142 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,500 Speaker 2: and kind of went up and to the right. And 143 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:26,270 Speaker 2: what happened, you know, it was Anthropix's newest model came out, 144 00:08:26,430 --> 00:08:31,330 Speaker 2: which was a massive step up in usefulness. And all 145 00:08:31,350 --> 00:08:34,770 Speaker 2: of a sudden, there was a ton of demand for inference. And, 146 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:42,770 Speaker 2: you know, more recently, we've seen, you know, looking at B200, B300, 147 00:08:42,929 --> 00:08:49,780 Speaker 2: and H100 prices, another surge upward in price. And, by 148 00:08:49,820 --> 00:08:52,420 Speaker 2: the way, at the same time that the Silicon Data 149 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:54,740 Speaker 2: token index price has plummeted. 150 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:55,699 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting. 151 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:56,740 Speaker 3: And so. 152 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,460 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, these things are volatile. They can go up, 153 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: they can go down, and a hedging instrument is badly needed. 154 00:09:21,250 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 4: Just as a hypothetical, let's say GPUs depreciate over time 155 00:09:26,179 --> 00:09:29,500 Speaker 4: and there's more demand but in general the value goes 156 00:09:29,540 --> 00:09:30,980 Speaker 4: down which is something we've seen in a lot of 157 00:09:31,020 --> 00:09:34,980 Speaker 4: commodity markets right in that case does having a market 158 00:09:35,020 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 4: where you're able to hedge your future gpu revenue streams 159 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 4: does that just enable people to i guess borrow more 160 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 4: and overbuild versus genuinely reduce risk you're just allowing people 161 00:09:49,260 --> 00:09:52,689 Speaker 4: to borrow against the same risk, ostensibly with a hedge, 162 00:09:52,690 --> 00:09:56,569 Speaker 4: but the underlying isn't actually moving in your favor. 163 00:09:56,570 --> 00:09:58,030 Speaker 3: Does that make sense? 164 00:09:58,030 --> 00:10:00,079 Speaker 2: No. I mean, here, the reason it doesn't make sense 165 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 2: is that for a futures contract to exist, there has 166 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,980 Speaker 2: to be a willing buyer and a willing seller, right? 167 00:10:06,420 --> 00:10:09,870 Speaker 2: So your hypothesis would work if they could just go 168 00:10:09,929 --> 00:10:12,890 Speaker 2: and sell futures contracts at some price that was made 169 00:10:12,990 --> 00:10:17,420 Speaker 2: up maybe too high, and there was kind of infinite 170 00:10:17,460 --> 00:10:21,059 Speaker 2: demand for that. Okay, well, sure. But there has to 171 00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 2: be a rational buyer on the other side. And so 172 00:10:23,179 --> 00:10:25,570 Speaker 2: I think what we'll see is that those forward contracts 173 00:10:25,610 --> 00:10:27,370 Speaker 2: are going to be, are in fact going to be 174 00:10:27,410 --> 00:10:31,450 Speaker 2: at lower prices just because there's so much hedging demand 175 00:10:31,890 --> 00:10:33,689 Speaker 2: to sell in the forward space. 176 00:10:34,350 --> 00:10:36,550 Speaker 3: And there will need to be, you know. 177 00:10:36,750 --> 00:10:41,380 Speaker 2: Investors who want to generate a return by buying those 178 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:42,180 Speaker 2: futures contracts. 179 00:10:43,700 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: What is the– if we cast out a few years, 180 00:10:46,780 --> 00:10:53,940 Speaker 1: what is the sort of ecosystem of clouds and inference 181 00:10:54,620 --> 00:10:56,939 Speaker 1: providers that needs to exist for this to be a 182 00:10:56,980 --> 00:11:01,929 Speaker 1: rich market? Because if the future of AI is just– 183 00:11:02,190 --> 00:11:04,510 Speaker 1: let's say the future of AI were just anthropic and 184 00:11:04,550 --> 00:11:09,860 Speaker 1: open AI. And the future of cloud were just meta, Alphabet, 185 00:11:10,370 --> 00:11:13,130 Speaker 1: and Amazon. There wouldn't need to be a futures market. 186 00:11:13,150 --> 00:11:16,630 Speaker 1: It would just be all bilateral agreements, offtake agreements, et cetera. 187 00:11:16,860 --> 00:11:17,030 Speaker 2: Yep. 188 00:11:17,300 --> 00:11:21,950 Speaker 1: So how much like. How fat of a tale of 189 00:11:22,050 --> 00:11:26,550 Speaker 1: non-open AI and anthropic inference do we need such that 190 00:11:26,610 --> 00:11:29,950 Speaker 1: this is a useful vault market that cannot just be 191 00:11:29,990 --> 00:11:31,410 Speaker 1: solved by bilateral agreements? 192 00:11:31,510 --> 00:11:33,790 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think we're already there. I mean, 193 00:11:33,830 --> 00:11:37,130 Speaker 2: look at the growing use of open source models. I mean, 194 00:11:37,170 --> 00:11:44,380 Speaker 2: it's exploded. And you're seeing companies with many billion dollar 195 00:11:44,580 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: valuations that have just been created to put open source 196 00:11:48,970 --> 00:11:51,170 Speaker 2: models on GPUs and sell the tokens. 197 00:11:51,190 --> 00:11:52,290 Speaker 3: Right. 198 00:11:52,850 --> 00:11:58,470 Speaker 2: You know, like fireworks and together. And so we already 199 00:11:58,530 --> 00:12:00,550 Speaker 2: have a really rich ecosystem. 200 00:12:01,030 --> 00:12:01,929 Speaker 1: Is it rich enough yet? 201 00:12:02,530 --> 00:12:03,930 Speaker 3: For sure. Okay, interesting. 202 00:12:04,470 --> 00:12:04,630 Speaker 2: Yeah. 203 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 4: Should we talk about perpetuals? 204 00:12:07,420 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 3: Yeah. 205 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:09,540 Speaker 2: Can I ask another? 206 00:12:09,860 --> 00:12:10,660 Speaker 3: Yeah, go for it. 207 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: Can I ask, on GPU futures, So one of the 208 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:18,150 Speaker 1: other things that people say, the skeptics, is they say 209 00:12:18,730 --> 00:12:25,229 Speaker 1: GPU or compute is not homogenous enough for a futures market. 210 00:12:25,470 --> 00:12:28,550 Speaker 1: And there's a few different things. They say there's different 211 00:12:28,610 --> 00:12:32,820 Speaker 1: software arrays, and that could significantly change the value. There's 212 00:12:32,900 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: also the fact that there's, at least in the inference 213 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,300 Speaker 1: part of AI, there's a lot of other players who 214 00:12:39,340 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: want AMD and and etched and all these other tranium 215 00:12:45,540 --> 00:12:47,820 Speaker 1: and whatever the Microsoft one was and. 216 00:12:47,740 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 3: TPUs, et cetera. 217 00:12:49,250 --> 00:12:52,180 Speaker 1: And this is just way too diverse of a market 218 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:57,090 Speaker 1: to really be captured in an index. How confident are 219 00:12:57,130 --> 00:12:59,630 Speaker 1: you that either the market is going to be homogenous 220 00:12:59,690 --> 00:13:03,670 Speaker 1: enough for futures or that there will be enough sophistication 221 00:13:03,730 --> 00:13:07,570 Speaker 1: about the sort of basis between the H100 index versus 222 00:13:07,590 --> 00:13:11,670 Speaker 1: something similar such that this market can serve a diverse 223 00:13:12,429 --> 00:13:13,130 Speaker 1: provider base? 224 00:13:13,370 --> 00:13:13,530 Speaker 3: Yeah. 225 00:13:13,590 --> 00:13:16,190 Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, the amount of money going into, 226 00:13:16,570 --> 00:13:20,729 Speaker 2: you know, just H-100s or just B-200s is large enough 227 00:13:21,030 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 2: to support a single futures market. Now, in addition to that, 228 00:13:25,429 --> 00:13:29,580 Speaker 2: these other things are very correlated. And so, you know, 229 00:13:29,620 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 2: people will be able to trade a basis on these things. 230 00:13:33,260 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 3: Versus whatever it is. And, you know, maybe... obviously, you know, 231 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 3: these are going. 232 00:13:39,980 --> 00:13:46,339 Speaker 2: To be off of kind of the, the baseline standard configuration, whatever. But, 233 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,510 Speaker 2: and so maybe, uh, somebody's planning on doing a training 234 00:13:50,550 --> 00:13:53,110 Speaker 2: run and they need a giant cluster. Well, that's going 235 00:13:53,130 --> 00:13:56,270 Speaker 2: to bear a premium, of course. But, but, you know, 236 00:13:56,929 --> 00:14:00,550 Speaker 2: if the demand for inference goes up massively, then guess what? 237 00:14:00,570 --> 00:14:02,699 Speaker 2: That training run is also going to be more expensive. 238 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,060 Speaker 2: So it's just a basis between the things. 239 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 3: That's one thing. 240 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 2: The other thing is, um, that eventually, and, you know, 241 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,420 Speaker 2: we may be getting close, you'll be able to trade 242 00:14:13,740 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 2: futures contracts on the output, on the tokens themselves. 243 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,570 Speaker 3: Oh, token futures. Token futures. 244 00:14:21,110 --> 00:14:24,710 Speaker 2: And so, you know, again, there's, of course, a diverse 245 00:14:25,130 --> 00:14:28,030 Speaker 2: number of tokens and people will put up the same objections. 246 00:14:28,530 --> 00:14:34,410 Speaker 2: But I think that over time, that's going to be possible. 247 00:14:34,470 --> 00:14:38,190 Speaker 2: And By the way, that will introduce a really interesting possibility, 248 00:14:38,690 --> 00:14:42,050 Speaker 2: which is, now think about if you go. 249 00:14:42,150 --> 00:14:45,620 Speaker 3: And rent GPUs, you pay the on-demand price. 250 00:14:46,100 --> 00:14:48,500 Speaker 2: And then you load up an open source model, and 251 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 2: you start selling tokens through OpenRouter or something. Well, can 252 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 2: you do that profitably or not? Well, that profit margin 253 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:00,740 Speaker 2: that you can generate. 254 00:15:00,260 --> 00:15:01,410 Speaker 3: Is akin to. 255 00:15:04,330 --> 00:15:09,250 Speaker 2: What an oil refinery does or what a soybean crush 256 00:15:09,310 --> 00:15:09,970 Speaker 2: plant does. 257 00:15:10,730 --> 00:15:12,750 Speaker 3: So we're going to have a crack spread. 258 00:15:13,010 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 2: So in oil, we call it a crack spread. In soybeans, 259 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,140 Speaker 2: we call it a crush spread. So you heard it 260 00:15:19,180 --> 00:15:24,340 Speaker 2: here first. At DRW, we call this the crunch spread. 261 00:15:24,660 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: That's great. 262 00:15:25,780 --> 00:15:28,670 Speaker 4: Wait, is this token futures or something you're actively working on, 263 00:15:28,730 --> 00:15:29,290 Speaker 4: it sounds like? 264 00:15:29,470 --> 00:15:30,250 Speaker 2: Yes. Okay. 265 00:15:30,270 --> 00:15:30,390 Speaker 3: Okay. 266 00:15:31,090 --> 00:15:33,730 Speaker 4: What sort of stage would you say you're at? 267 00:15:33,750 --> 00:15:37,670 Speaker 2: I mean, it's the thought stage, but I mean, here, 268 00:15:38,070 --> 00:15:45,290 Speaker 2: to be fair, the silicon data token index is providing 269 00:15:45,430 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 2: some pretty interesting data and is widely discussed. 270 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 3: So that's a start. 271 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 4: And so just going back to GPU futures for a second, 272 00:15:56,860 --> 00:16:00,130 Speaker 4: so every time a new chip comes out, that needs 273 00:16:00,150 --> 00:16:03,340 Speaker 4: to be a separate contract and a new pool of liquidity. 274 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,010 Speaker 4: Is that right? Is that how you're thinking of it? 275 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 2: Correct. 276 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:05,900 Speaker 4: Okay. 277 00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:08,460 Speaker 2: And how do you, I mean, it seems kind of challenging. 278 00:16:08,500 --> 00:16:09,820 Speaker 3: You have to like keep. 279 00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:13,950 Speaker 4: Up with the technological cycle, which is very rapid. 280 00:16:14,310 --> 00:16:17,330 Speaker 3: It's rapid, but not that rapid. Right. 281 00:16:17,650 --> 00:16:20,490 Speaker 2: And, and you're probably not going to launch a futures 282 00:16:20,530 --> 00:16:23,630 Speaker 2: contract for every single one. You're going to launch futures 283 00:16:23,670 --> 00:16:26,980 Speaker 2: contracts for the ones that are in the major ones. And, uh, 284 00:16:27,570 --> 00:16:29,610 Speaker 2: You know, but that's okay. I mean, there are different, 285 00:16:29,850 --> 00:16:33,030 Speaker 2: you know, think about how many electricity contracts. 286 00:16:32,620 --> 00:16:36,740 Speaker 3: There are for every little node. And I mean, you know, 287 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:37,660 Speaker 3: thousands of them. 288 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: There's a lot of oil contracts too. We just usually 289 00:16:40,060 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: talk about two of them typically. Just out of curiosity, 290 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,340 Speaker 1: and this is actually sort of separate from the futures conversation, 291 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,790 Speaker 1: but I guess like as a technologist with multiple businesses, 292 00:16:50,010 --> 00:16:56,570 Speaker 1: et cetera, are you, how assailable is NVIDIA's dominance today? Like, 293 00:16:56,590 --> 00:16:59,470 Speaker 1: what's your read on that? Because this is a constant question, 294 00:16:59,830 --> 00:17:02,650 Speaker 1: whether any of these other chip makers can actually eat 295 00:17:02,690 --> 00:17:05,490 Speaker 1: into NVIDIA's position. What's your take there? 296 00:17:06,210 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 2: Sure. I think that the space is going to continue 297 00:17:08,940 --> 00:17:14,060 Speaker 2: to grow. And I can't, it's unlikely that NVIDIA will 298 00:17:14,100 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 2: be able to maintain the market share that they have maintained. 299 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:25,070 Speaker 2: But I'm pretty confident that NVIDIA will continue. 300 00:17:24,690 --> 00:17:25,410 Speaker 3: To grow as a company. 301 00:17:41,609 --> 00:17:43,790 Speaker 4: You know, last year when we spoke, we were talking 302 00:17:43,810 --> 00:17:47,100 Speaker 4: about AI use in general at DRW. And I think 303 00:17:47,140 --> 00:17:51,060 Speaker 4: you said people were using agents to sort of debate 304 00:17:51,260 --> 00:17:54,980 Speaker 4: investment theories or risk allocation and things like that. But 305 00:17:55,030 --> 00:17:58,570 Speaker 4: you weren't using AI to actually deploy risk at that time. 306 00:17:59,430 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 4: Joe mentioned that things change very, very fast in the 307 00:18:01,859 --> 00:18:04,300 Speaker 4: world of AI. 12 months later, has that changed? What's 308 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:05,120 Speaker 4: AI doing for you now? 309 00:18:05,340 --> 00:18:09,860 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, there's definitely more adoption. There's more frontline. 310 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:10,820 Speaker 3: Adoption, for sure. 311 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 4: Has your token budget gone up? 312 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 3: The token budget goes up. Yes, it goes up. 313 00:18:17,380 --> 00:18:22,340 Speaker 2: The token use is like this exponential chart. It's pretty interesting. 314 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,850 Speaker 1: Do you have, there's another question, like across your businesses, 315 00:18:26,310 --> 00:18:30,510 Speaker 1: have you figured out optimal internal token allocation. We've asked 316 00:18:30,530 --> 00:18:33,590 Speaker 1: this to a lot of executives and at least up 317 00:18:33,630 --> 00:18:35,490 Speaker 1: until recent, they're like, we're just still trying to figure 318 00:18:35,530 --> 00:18:38,050 Speaker 1: this out, but you must have everyone, of course, everyone 319 00:18:38,090 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: wants more. I assume everyone always wants the frontier token cost. 320 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:46,140 Speaker 1: Have you solved the question of like internal token allocation yet? 321 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,340 Speaker 2: Well, here, I mean, I think the most important thing 322 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,620 Speaker 2: is to be thoughtful about how you route the, the 323 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:57,010 Speaker 2: inference requests and, and, And not every inference request needs 324 00:18:57,050 --> 00:19:02,959 Speaker 2: to go to a frontier model. And so that's the 325 00:19:02,980 --> 00:19:05,419 Speaker 2: thing that we're trying to optimize for, is minimize token 326 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 2: spend by optimally routing inference requests. 327 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,790 Speaker 4: Now shall we ask about perpetuals? OK, perps, go. 328 00:19:15,609 --> 00:19:17,949 Speaker 2: Why is Terry wrong about perps? I mean, listen, here. 329 00:19:24,940 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 3: In my view, are... Terry's in the audience, by the way. 330 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 2: I know. 331 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 4: But you're also his client, so. 332 00:19:30,380 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 3: I know. 333 00:19:30,859 --> 00:19:37,810 Speaker 2: And Terry and I enjoy talking about this. My view 334 00:19:37,990 --> 00:19:41,910 Speaker 2: is that perps serve a useful economic purpose. 335 00:19:42,970 --> 00:19:48,370 Speaker 3: They are futures contracts. And I mean, here. 336 00:19:48,910 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 2: I'll give you a couple examples. The, you know, a 337 00:19:52,900 --> 00:19:57,210 Speaker 2: lot of people like to buy the crude oil ETF. Yeah, 338 00:19:57,230 --> 00:20:00,190 Speaker 2: the crude oil ETF generally, you know, at one point, 339 00:20:00,230 --> 00:20:01,889 Speaker 2: it was always in the front month future, and it 340 00:20:01,930 --> 00:20:04,390 Speaker 2: broadcast to the world exactly what day it would roll 341 00:20:04,430 --> 00:20:07,090 Speaker 2: from that futures to the next futures contract. And I 342 00:20:07,109 --> 00:20:08,730 Speaker 2: don't know, there was probably a little bit of slippage 343 00:20:08,780 --> 00:20:11,580 Speaker 2: in that, a little bit of inefficiency. Now they've kind 344 00:20:11,619 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 2: of like, now they do it over a window and 345 00:20:14,140 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 2: they hold the first three contracts and whatever. 346 00:20:18,060 --> 00:20:19,260 Speaker 3: But there's still a lot of slippage. 347 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,130 Speaker 2: Now imagine a PERP that is tied to, let's say, 348 00:20:23,150 --> 00:20:25,090 Speaker 2: the Brent Index. 349 00:20:25,910 --> 00:20:30,369 Speaker 3: And an ETF that just buys that. 350 00:20:31,690 --> 00:20:36,390 Speaker 2: PERP. I mean, I think that that would be much 351 00:20:36,609 --> 00:20:42,210 Speaker 2: more efficient experience for the ETF. And of course, that 352 00:20:42,250 --> 00:20:45,070 Speaker 2: doesn't mean that that's a useful hedging instrument for an 353 00:20:45,210 --> 00:20:45,930 Speaker 2: oil producer. 354 00:20:46,070 --> 00:20:46,730 Speaker 3: It's not. 355 00:20:47,230 --> 00:20:50,950 Speaker 2: An oil producer needs to hedge way out the curve. Great. 356 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 2: You can have monthly and quarterly futures and PERPs side 357 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 2: by side. 358 00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:00,300 Speaker 3: They actually augment. 359 00:20:58,580 --> 00:20:59,179 Speaker 2: One another and. 360 00:21:00,710 --> 00:21:03,090 Speaker 3: And that's a good thing. Here's another example. 361 00:21:03,570 --> 00:21:08,250 Speaker 2: Suppose you are a retail investor and you own a 362 00:21:08,890 --> 00:21:14,810 Speaker 2: hard-to-borrow stock. And all the hedge funds want to short. 363 00:21:14,890 --> 00:21:19,450 Speaker 2: They're paying 100% annualized to short this stock. If you 364 00:21:19,490 --> 00:21:24,129 Speaker 2: have that stock in your retail account, your broker is 365 00:21:24,190 --> 00:21:26,950 Speaker 2: probably not saying to you, hey, by the way, we're 366 00:21:26,970 --> 00:21:29,109 Speaker 2: going to give you 300 basis points a day because 367 00:21:29,130 --> 00:21:31,990 Speaker 2: you're holding this Hard to borrow stock. 368 00:21:32,570 --> 00:21:34,670 Speaker 3: Okay, that would be 1,000% annualized, but. 369 00:21:34,550 --> 00:21:41,699 Speaker 2: 30 basis points a day. But whatever. So you're not 370 00:21:41,740 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 2: getting the benefit of owning that hard-to-borrow stock. 371 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,100 Speaker 3: Now, if instead you own the. 372 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:51,820 Speaker 2: PER, then mechanically it's going to pass through. And so 373 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:58,650 Speaker 2: it's a real opportunity to democratize the financial markets. 374 00:21:59,490 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: Right, so democratize. This word democratize, I've never really liked 375 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: it because it just sounds good, but I don't know 376 00:22:05,300 --> 00:22:06,980 Speaker 1: what it means. But in this case, it makes sense 377 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,830 Speaker 1: because in this case, what you're saying is there is 378 00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:14,350 Speaker 1: an economic value that is not being captured currently by 379 00:22:14,430 --> 00:22:17,910 Speaker 1: retail holders of certain stocks because no one's making the offer. 380 00:22:18,210 --> 00:22:20,369 Speaker 1: But the demand would be there if they held that 381 00:22:20,430 --> 00:22:21,210 Speaker 1: same exposure in. 382 00:22:21,210 --> 00:22:22,050 Speaker 3: A different way. Correct. 383 00:22:22,130 --> 00:22:24,710 Speaker 2: And the same thing for the ETF, the oil ETF. 384 00:22:24,750 --> 00:22:27,230 Speaker 2: I mean, that's probably a retail investor that wants to 385 00:22:27,270 --> 00:22:28,390 Speaker 2: have exposure to oil. 386 00:22:28,750 --> 00:22:30,250 Speaker 3: Here's a more efficient way to do it. 387 00:22:30,650 --> 00:22:33,970 Speaker 4: I get that it might be more useful and economically 388 00:22:34,030 --> 00:22:36,750 Speaker 4: beneficial to some, but if the regulation says that a 389 00:22:36,790 --> 00:22:40,640 Speaker 4: futures contract has to have an expiration date and these don't, 390 00:22:41,100 --> 00:22:41,820 Speaker 4: why should it not? 391 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 3: Where does it say that? 392 00:22:43,380 --> 00:22:44,580 Speaker 2: I haven't read that. Does it not? 393 00:22:45,940 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 3: Not that I've seen. 394 00:22:47,220 --> 00:22:49,590 Speaker 1: I don't know. So Terry said they're swaps. 395 00:22:49,869 --> 00:22:50,850 Speaker 2: And you said they're futures. 396 00:22:50,890 --> 00:22:51,650 Speaker 1: Why are they not swaps? 397 00:22:51,670 --> 00:22:54,990 Speaker 4: I feel like this should be an easily settled debate. 398 00:22:55,090 --> 00:22:58,130 Speaker 2: OK. So what's the difference? And I asked this question 399 00:22:58,170 --> 00:23:02,710 Speaker 2: when Dodd-Frank was being drafted. And what's the difference. 400 00:23:02,410 --> 00:23:05,870 Speaker 3: Between a future and a swap? I have no idea. OK. 401 00:23:05,890 --> 00:23:09,700 Speaker 2: Well, the answer that I got from the person drafting 402 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 2: the legislation for Barney Frank was, everybody. 403 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:20,409 Speaker 3: Knows that swaps are risky. What? I'm sorry. 404 00:23:20,430 --> 00:23:27,060 Speaker 2: A swap that is cleared has the same economic risk 405 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:33,650 Speaker 2: to society, to the holder, as a futures contract does. 406 00:23:34,450 --> 00:23:36,730 Speaker 3: I mean, we've gotten like lost. 407 00:23:36,970 --> 00:23:39,180 Speaker 2: We've like lost our minds with nomenclature. 408 00:23:40,230 --> 00:23:43,970 Speaker 4: But can you address directly Terry's point about leverage in 409 00:23:44,010 --> 00:23:45,510 Speaker 4: that case? Like how do you manage the. 410 00:23:45,430 --> 00:23:46,190 Speaker 2: Leverage from these? 411 00:23:46,260 --> 00:23:47,020 Speaker 3: No, I'm sorry. 412 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 2: Again, like there's this confusion. Well, if it's a perp, 413 00:23:52,140 --> 00:23:55,380 Speaker 2: it must have massive leverage and auto deleveraging and all 414 00:23:55,420 --> 00:23:56,260 Speaker 2: these horrible things. 415 00:23:57,220 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 4: Wrong. 416 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,150 Speaker 2: You can, by the way, have a quarterly futures contract 417 00:24:01,190 --> 00:24:04,330 Speaker 2: with massive leverage and auto deleveraging and all these horrible things. 418 00:24:05,090 --> 00:24:09,750 Speaker 2: You don't. you could list a perp with reasonable leverage 419 00:24:09,930 --> 00:24:13,060 Speaker 2: and no auto deleveraging, and it would be a very 420 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,610 Speaker 2: useful economic instrument. 421 00:24:15,290 --> 00:24:17,550 Speaker 4: Joe, next year, we're going to cut ourselves out of 422 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 4: this conversation entirely and just have Terry and John to do. 423 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 3: This on stage. 424 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,179 Speaker 1: It's crazy to think some of our most animated moments 425 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 1: on the podcast will now be, what is the definition 426 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: of a swap? 427 00:24:27,460 --> 00:24:28,750 Speaker 3: But this is why. 428 00:24:30,330 --> 00:24:33,950 Speaker 1: These are the conversations that we like to have. Okay, 429 00:24:34,090 --> 00:24:36,950 Speaker 1: when 24-7 trading inevitably arrives? 430 00:24:37,650 --> 00:24:38,270 Speaker 2: It's already here. 431 00:24:38,290 --> 00:24:39,109 Speaker 3: What are you talking about? 432 00:24:39,130 --> 00:24:39,590 Speaker 1: That's true. 433 00:24:39,790 --> 00:24:40,230 Speaker 2: It is here. 434 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: You're right. Does that change people's lives? Is that annoying? 435 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,179 Speaker 1: Is it annoying to have to think about risk at 436 00:24:45,180 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: 1 a.m. on a Sunday? 437 00:24:47,660 --> 00:24:48,900 Speaker 3: Just from a personal life. 438 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 4: Won't someone think of a financial journalist? 439 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,540 Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, we've been trading crypto since 2014. Yeah, 440 00:24:53,580 --> 00:24:54,149 Speaker 2: so you've been 24-7. 441 00:24:54,140 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 3: So I'm used to markets moving 24-7. I will tell 442 00:24:56,290 --> 00:24:58,340 Speaker 3: you that our options market makers.... 443 00:25:06,510 --> 00:25:10,710 Speaker 2: Are not happy about the prospect of, you know, making 444 00:25:10,790 --> 00:25:12,630 Speaker 2: SOFR options markets over weekends. 445 00:25:12,730 --> 00:25:16,619 Speaker 3: Yeah. And you know what? I'm very sympathetic to that. 446 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:17,619 Speaker 1: But they're happening. 447 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:19,420 Speaker 3: You know what? 448 00:25:19,619 --> 00:25:21,940 Speaker 2: It's just going to happen. We're going to have to 449 00:25:21,980 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 2: figure out how to deal with it. All right. 450 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 1: Don Wilson, thank you so much for coming back to 451 00:25:27,530 --> 00:25:30,010 Speaker 1: Outlaws Live. We're just going to do it again next year, 452 00:25:30,030 --> 00:25:31,510 Speaker 1: the year after that, and the year after that. 453 00:25:31,550 --> 00:25:31,930 Speaker 2: That's right. 454 00:25:31,970 --> 00:25:32,490 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. 455 00:25:45,570 --> 00:25:48,550 Speaker 4: That was another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast recorded 456 00:25:48,750 --> 00:25:51,790 Speaker 4: live in Chicago. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me 457 00:25:51,970 --> 00:25:52,889 Speaker 4: at Tracy Alloway. 458 00:25:53,030 --> 00:25:55,750 Speaker 1: And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. 459 00:25:56,020 --> 00:25:59,440 Speaker 1: Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, Dashiell Bennett 460 00:25:59,540 --> 00:26:02,680 Speaker 1: at Dashbot, Cale Brooks at Cale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano 461 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,859 Speaker 1: at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. For more OddLots content, go to 462 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 1: Bloomberg.com slash OddLots for the daily newsletter and all of 463 00:26:09,220 --> 00:26:11,619 Speaker 1: our episodes. And you can chat about all these topics 464 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,620 Speaker 1: 24-7 in our Discord, Discord.gg slash OddLots. 465 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,459 Speaker 4: And if you enjoyed this conversation, then please leave us 466 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,590 Speaker 4: a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. If you're 467 00:26:21,609 --> 00:26:24,330 Speaker 4: watching the video, then please like or leave a comment 468 00:26:24,420 --> 00:26:25,609 Speaker 4: or better yet, subscribe. 469 00:26:26,130 --> 00:26:27,190 Speaker 1: Thanks for watching and listening. 470 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:39,649 Speaker 3: Thank you.