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Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 3: One of our top stories that we've been talking about
Speaker 3: all morning, the Biden administration, according to our sources, will
Speaker 3: raise tariffs on some Chinese goods this week after nearly
Speaker 3: two years of review. We understand that Biden will target
Speaker 3: sectors like electric vehicles, solar cells, batteries, and steel and aluminum.
Speaker 3: Joining us now for some discussion of this is Steve Angel,
Speaker 3: who has a title that's too long to get to,
Speaker 3: but he's one of the top dogs on the TV side.
Speaker 4: Friend of the show is my title?
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, with the emphasis on dog anyway. Look, I
Speaker 3: mean a lot of this looks symbolic. It looks like
Speaker 3: it's a sort of political positioning and everything, because we
Speaker 3: know that, for instance, with evs, they're really not China
Speaker 3: is not really selling any evs in the United States.
Speaker 3: So what's the point here?
Speaker 4: I mean, the point is obviously something that the Bide
Speaker 4: administration has been going on about, and that is the
Speaker 4: overcapacity in China in the EV space, in solar space,
Speaker 4: in the new three that she dimping has been touting
Speaker 4: of course in green tech. And then that overcapacity has
Speaker 4: to go somewhere abroad to Europe. You were already hearing
Speaker 4: about tariffs. They're coming from the EC and Ursula Vandaleean
Speaker 4: and you know, the United States. You're absolutely right, they
Speaker 4: don't really have access for the Chinese evs, which you know,
Speaker 4: some of these byds are sub ten thousand US dollars.
Speaker 4: And the you know opponents mainly in the in Detroit,
Speaker 4: in the auto making places in the United States. They're concerned,
Speaker 4: obviously in this election year about jobs by administration definitely
Speaker 4: worried about jobs. But keep in mind EV's right now.
Speaker 4: According to Edmunds dot com, Brian make up just about
Speaker 4: one percent of US cars on the road. Now, proponents
Speaker 4: of allowing Chinese evs to come in and say, look,
Speaker 4: this can help the US and it's it's climate change fight,
Speaker 4: it will help inflation and give a cheaper access to
Speaker 4: these kind of technology to the American consumer. But really
Speaker 4: it's the politics that's driving this right now. So EV's well,
Speaker 4: the terifs will rise to one hundred and two percent
Speaker 4: from twenty seven and a half percent currently, increase of
Speaker 4: two hundred and seventy two percent, so quad nearly quadruple.
Speaker 2: It's kind of ironic too, isn't it, Steve? With the
Speaker 2: Zeker IPO happening on Friday night, it's in that big gain.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we are keeping products outside of
Speaker 2: the American market for understandable reasons, but at the same
Speaker 2: time allowing capital to be raised for those same Chinese companies.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Zeker is an interesting One's kind of the high
Speaker 4: end EV from the company Jujong Jeee, which of course
Speaker 4: they owned Volvo and others. But Zeker is a complete
Speaker 4: EV and made a lot of headlines and the buzz
Speaker 4: at the Beijing Auto Show last month. But they raised,
Speaker 4: you know, a lot of money in New York and
Speaker 4: the shares on the first day rose thirty five percent.
Speaker 4: The biggest Chinese IPO in the US by a Chinese
Speaker 4: company since twenty twenty one. I think it was d
Speaker 4: D Global was the last one. So yeah, it's a
Speaker 4: bit ironic. As again, if you've read David Fickling's The
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Opinion's latest call him, he's kind of saying, what's
Speaker 4: going on with the EV push in the United States.
Speaker 4: He calls it an astonishing loss of nerve in the US. Basically,
Speaker 4: the country that developed the modern automobile industry is kind
Speaker 4: of shying away because you know, EV sales just rose
Speaker 4: two point six percent year over year in the first quarter.
Speaker 4: That's after blistering growth a couple of years ago in
Speaker 4: the same period.
Speaker 3: Well, I suppose with the positioning on tariffs here, it
Speaker 3: sends a strong message at the moment, and it also
Speaker 3: will probably discourage, you know, the expansion down the road
Speaker 3: of Chinese manufacturers into the United States at least until
Speaker 3: the environment changes.
Speaker 4: I absolutely would agree with that, and that's something that
Speaker 4: Donald Trump seized on this morning. Essentially, he also said
Speaker 4: Biden should have done this on EV's some four years ago.
Speaker 4: But what he's also warning is that, look, the Chinese
Speaker 4: are going to come and use their manufacturing bases in Mexico,
Speaker 4: and then through the US Mexico Canada Agreement that Trump
Speaker 4: did sign, they could potentially export from Mexico into the
Speaker 4: United States those evs. But I'm sure there's some loopholes
Speaker 4: that would be closed there as well. But he says,
Speaker 4: you know, two hundred percent tariffs on Chinese cars made
Speaker 4: in Mexico is what he would do on top of
Speaker 4: course what he's already pledged on the campaign trail, sixty
Speaker 4: percent tariffs across the board on all Chinese products.
Speaker 2: So, Steve, how do you think this is being viewed
Speaker 2: by aging at the moment? I mean, is are they
Speaker 2: writing it off to just kind of election year politics?
Speaker 1: Is?
Speaker 2: Are there are there deeper concerns here about kind of
Speaker 2: protectionism and a further I don't want to use the
Speaker 2: term decoupling. I mean, but fred relations, let's let's put
Speaker 2: it that way.
Speaker 4: I think they're realistic about it. I think they know
Speaker 4: as well as an election year. There's no secret why
Speaker 4: Sijenping went to Hungary and Serbia in Europe. He found
Speaker 4: a friendly economy there that is building out the EV
Speaker 4: infrastructure in there at a time when Brussels is kind
Speaker 4: of trumping or not trumpeting, I should say, actually talking
Speaker 4: about you know, more protectionist measures, possible tariffs on those
Speaker 4: Chinese evs, whereas the United States, it's just non existent
Speaker 4: market for Chinese EV's right now and it will be
Speaker 4: for quite some time. And I think they're realistic about that.
Speaker 3: Across the board, generally, both Europe and the United States
Speaker 3: are talking about overcapacity. They've kind of shied away from
Speaker 3: subsidies because they themselves are offering subsidies.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, absolutely right, there's no question there is. Everyone
Speaker 4: I talked to at the Beijing Auto Show said, look,
Speaker 4: we've been to these factories. There's some factories that you know,
Speaker 4: their capacity utilization rate is just you know, so low,
Speaker 4: and there's over capacity everywhere, and they do need to
Speaker 4: sell that somewhere.
Speaker 2: Putin comes to China this week, right, Yeah, what do
Speaker 2: you expect?
Speaker 4: Right? Well, I think there's just going to be more
Speaker 4: of the doubling down on their relationship. It will be
Speaker 4: interesting to see what kind of word Shi Jinping uses, though,
Speaker 4: as the war in Ukraine goes into a third year.
Speaker 4: He did get an earfull in Europe from Macron, from
Speaker 4: vander Layan as well on the nascent support if you will,
Speaker 4: Moscow as a de facto support for the war and
Speaker 4: the double use technologies that are sold into the Russian economy.
Speaker 4: So hear how she words that?
Speaker 3: All right, Steve, Thanks very much. Steven Engel, Bloomberg's chief
Speaker 3: North Asia TV correspondent, joining us in our studios for
Speaker 3: a closer Loogod Markets George Merris, Global Equity CIO and
Speaker 3: principal Asset Management. George, thank you for coming into the
Speaker 3: studios here. So for the S and P five hundred,
Speaker 3: it's on track to post earnings growth in the first
Speaker 3: quarter seven point one percent. That almost doubles the analyst
Speaker 3: preseason estimates of three point eight percent. But the one
Speaker 3: interesting factor is that traders have really punished companies that
Speaker 3: delivered weaker than expected forecasts. So that's one thing to note.
Speaker 3: But the other interesting thing to note is that some
Speaker 3: of these companies like ARM and Meta that got drilled
Speaker 3: on the day of their earnings, they've come back, They've
Speaker 3: recouped all of the losses. So it's like the trader
Speaker 3: slam them and then the true believers come back in.
Speaker 3: So how are you approaching earnings that you've seen this
Speaker 3: first quarter?
Speaker 5: So I think that's an excellent way of phrasing it,
Speaker 5: which is that there's a trading activity and there's a
Speaker 5: longer term investment activity. And I think the trading activity
Speaker 5: is part and parcel of a change where we've seen
Speaker 5: much more retail and sys systematic activity markets much more
Speaker 5: momentum oriented, very fast again headline and even quicker type
Speaker 5: of activity. But I do think in areas, so for example,
Speaker 5: with ARM and others in meta, there's this long term
Speaker 5: secular wind that is at their backs, AI and other
Speaker 5: high process computing developments that are going to continue to
Speaker 5: be powerful, and you're going to see longer term investors
Speaker 5: take advantage of volatility and continue to increase their stakes
Speaker 5: in these companies.
Speaker 2: When you look at what Warren Buffett did recently and
Speaker 2: kind of lightening up on his position in Apple and
Speaker 2: accumulating a bit more cash. Yes, he's a value investor
Speaker 2: and he's got very high standards when it comes to
Speaker 2: where to put money to work. But does he have
Speaker 2: a point? Are there far fewer opportunities right now if
Speaker 2: you're concerned about maybe stretched valuations, Far fewer opportunities where
Speaker 2: to find you chances to really put good money to
Speaker 2: work over a long period of time.
Speaker 5: I think the number of opportunities that are out there
Speaker 5: that we're out there, let's say this time last year,
Speaker 5: I have shrunk. The market was a lot much lower
Speaker 5: this time last year than it is now. We've had
Speaker 5: a spectacular run, whether it's US domestic equities, whether it's abroad,
Speaker 5: again a substantial move. At the same token, you can
Speaker 5: get five percent holding cash, so your opportunity cost of
Speaker 5: doing something is just that much higher. So why not,
Speaker 5: you know, a really, why not just sit back, hold
Speaker 5: some cash and wait for opportunities to arise, especially if
Speaker 5: you think the volatility that's out there is going to
Speaker 5: give you chances. Over the next year or two.
Speaker 3: We have two massive events coming up, particularly the consumer
Speaker 3: Price Index data this week, and then you know, retail
Speaker 3: sales is also kind of interesting. The consumer is a
Speaker 3: little bit in question. I think the next big one
Speaker 3: after that is Nvidia's earnings on May twenty second, So
Speaker 3: you could perhaps understand a little bit of caution over
Speaker 3: these next two weeks with those things.
Speaker 5: Looming for sure. Look right now, inflation is the key
Speaker 5: factor not only driving markets, but striving politics, as we're
Speaker 5: seeing in polls everywhere. The inflation data has been stickier
Speaker 5: than we thought it has been. We've seen expectations of
Speaker 5: FED rate cuts go from six to now a little
Speaker 5: bit over one through the course of five months. So
Speaker 5: clearly the market is on tenderhooks determining whether or not
Speaker 5: what's going to happen with inflation, and then related to
Speaker 5: that is what's happening with the state of the consumer.
Speaker 5: The consumer has been carrying the global economy for a
Speaker 5: long period of time. Are we seeing weakness, particularly within
Speaker 5: the United States? If we do see that weakness, it's
Speaker 5: going to create a much more difficult environment going forward.
Speaker 5: So I think those results are critical. And I also
Speaker 5: think in Nvidia again, AI is the secular power behind
Speaker 5: the markets, so much activity not only on that first order,
Speaker 5: but also in terms of investing behind AI. So people
Speaker 5: want to see that that trend continues.
Speaker 2: George, did the FED make a mistake at the end
Speaker 2: of last year when it signaled it the all clear
Speaker 2: in terms of further rate hikes? Maybe it should have
Speaker 2: you adopted a different position. We can say this in
Speaker 2: hindsight now given the stickiness of inflation, but perhaps there
Speaker 2: was a bit of a policy error at that time.
Speaker 5: Coyensien's always twenty twenty. If you were to look back
Speaker 5: in time, they shouldn't have. They should have been much
Speaker 5: more circumspect with respect to guidance in terms of the
Speaker 5: all clear, I would tell you that that as I
Speaker 5: look at you know, this is my own personal view,
Speaker 5: the sticky elements of inflation continue apace. And if you
Speaker 5: think about where the where the economy is, I worry
Speaker 5: just about just as much about inflation as I am
Speaker 5: about anything else. And when you consider the economies generally
Speaker 5: humming along, and you know, unemployments sticking below four percent,
Speaker 5: I didn't you know, it's hard to see and markets
Speaker 5: were up strongly, hard to see what was driving a
Speaker 5: rate cut, you know, moral for the FED. So I
Speaker 5: do think it's probably overly aggressive.
Speaker 3: We have actually seen some broadening out in the marketplace.
Speaker 3: We've seen tech kind of level off. I think if
Speaker 3: you look at the cues over the past three months,
Speaker 3: basically flat. You've seen it in dust drills, sore materials,
Speaker 3: soar finance is now soaring. I mean, the banks have
Speaker 3: done very well here of late. You know, it does
Speaker 3: almost beg the question, though, I mean, where else do
Speaker 3: we turn out? Emerging markets are starting to move, and
Speaker 3: we've seen China really pick up a little bit. Is
Speaker 3: that the thing? Now? You kind of want to switch
Speaker 3: to other areas? How are you approaching it.
Speaker 5: I think that's right. Look, there's tremendous enthusiasm around not
Speaker 5: just AI but also the Max seven. They posted phenomenal
Speaker 5: earnings growth. We're seeing that broaden ow you talked about
Speaker 5: seven percent earnings growth in Q one already, we're seeing
Speaker 5: that continue to increase. Estimates are increasing as the year progresses,
Speaker 5: and you're seeing sectors outside the mag seven do well
Speaker 5: as well. Again, broadening out of opportunities, I think as
Speaker 5: you get outside that Max seven, whether it's moving to
Speaker 5: different sectors beyond just technology and communications, but also outside
Speaker 5: the United States. We're seeing a substantial catchup in China
Speaker 5: equity this year. We're seeing Japanese equities continue to power along.
Speaker 5: We're seeing a rebound in European equities. There are all
Speaker 5: many of those are coming off of very depressed levels,
Speaker 5: and we're seeing a strengthening or at least a stabilizing
Speaker 5: of the economy and gets a natural tendency to look
Speaker 5: for other opportunities that have been probably you know, discarded
Speaker 5: over the last year and a half.
Speaker 2: So, George, your firm principal asset management, from what I understand,
Speaker 2: has about a little over seven hundred billion under management
Speaker 2: right now. I'm curious about the cash position.
Speaker 5: So the firm is always again, we have substantial balance sheet,
Speaker 5: you know, liabilities that we have to manage, so we're
Speaker 5: we always take a very conservative, prudent view of that.
Speaker 5: I think that continues to persist.
Speaker 3: And you mentioned earlier that actually the consumer is doing okay,
Speaker 3: it's fine, but you know, there are perhaps a few
Speaker 3: warning signs when you when you know what what does
Speaker 3: what does go bump in the night? For for for
Speaker 3: the guy whose name or rhymes with rawd maris.
Speaker 5: So again, a lot of things to be concerned about.
Speaker 5: I do worry about the potential for stagflation in the
Speaker 5: United States. Everybody cheered the weaker employment numbers last week.
Speaker 5: Markets certainly rallied off of that. I'm not sure that's
Speaker 5: such great news. I mean, seeing weaker employment and sticky
Speaker 5: inflation is stagflationary. That is a very bad outcome. The
Speaker 5: Fed's hands are a little bit tied to respond to that.
Speaker 5: And I think you've seen a bifurcated economy in the
Speaker 5: US with respect to consumers. You're starting to see the
Speaker 5: lower end consumer struggle a bit more. Inflation is biting
Speaker 5: them harder. The real person's cost index when you look
Speaker 5: at food, when you look at petrol and gas, is
Speaker 5: a lot higher than the aggregate numbers, and so those
Speaker 5: folks are suffering.
Speaker 2: So if that's your assessment, is it fair to say
Speaker 2: that you skew away from fixed income and you're forced
Speaker 2: to really look for opportunities solely in the equity space.
Speaker 2: Or maybe I've got that wrong.
Speaker 5: My fixed income colleagues will view this very differently. But
Speaker 5: I find an environment where inflation is sticky and likely
Speaker 5: to be stickier longer to be one where I want
Speaker 5: to get exposed to more cyclical equities. Cyclical equities can
Speaker 5: pass on the effects of inflation, they have the benefits
Speaker 5: of operating leverage, and right now they're not priced for
Speaker 5: that kind of growth. So I am geared towards more
Speaker 5: cyclical equities.
Speaker 3: So you know that brings in some of those sectors
Speaker 3: I raised before. What about staples? Is that interesting then?
Speaker 5: So I'm less convicted around staples, and staples have suffered
Speaker 5: relative to other sectors over the last year and a
Speaker 5: half two years, but it's worth knowing they had a
Speaker 5: huge bull run over the last five years solely because
Speaker 5: of zero and negative interest rate policies which put a
Speaker 5: premium on stable like earnings. Again, they're essentially a proxy
Speaker 5: for the bond market. I think that likely comes in
Speaker 5: and continues to come in play. I think, frankly, a
Speaker 5: more interesting play that gives you a lot of features
Speaker 5: like consumer staples will be defense defense trades more cheaply
Speaker 5: and right now, as we've all seen, the world is
Speaker 5: under invested in defense and geopolitics are not exactly in
Speaker 5: a good place.
Speaker 3: So do you like the electrification? You know, sort of
Speaker 3: a part of the utilities trade without question.
Speaker 5: Not only is AI going to continue to drive electrification,
Speaker 5: we're hearing about Microsoft looking at a one hundred billion
Speaker 5: dollar data center, but I think that you're continuing to
Speaker 5: see again infrastructure spend happened globally.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, George, thank you, good session, Thanks for
Speaker 3: coming into our studios. George Merris, Global Equity CIO at
Speaker 3: Principal Asset Management. One year consumer inflation expectations rising to
Speaker 3: three point five percent. That's the highest sense November. This
Speaker 3: was very much front and center in markets late last week.
Speaker 3: Joining us now for some discussion about markets is Anna
Speaker 3: rothbun CIO at CBIZ Investment Advisory, services, So you have
Speaker 3: inflation expectations rising there would you feel more comfortable on
Speaker 3: if we got something from the Fed which who was
Speaker 3: more or less like, we're not sure if the next
Speaker 3: move is up or down.
Speaker 1: Good evening evening here in Eastern time the United States.
Speaker 1: I think the FED has been pretty clear that we
Speaker 1: have to wait and see. There isn't any kind of
Speaker 1: clear trajectory right now for the rates. And I believe
Speaker 1: the last time the FED spoke to us, in the
Speaker 1: form of FOMC meeting and the press conference afterwards, Powell
Speaker 1: basically said a hike isn't really in the future. We
Speaker 1: do believe it's going to be higher for longer. I
Speaker 1: think the one year expectation of inflation there that you
Speaker 1: talked about is probably more powerful than the CPI we're
Speaker 1: going to get because it is backward looking, right. So
Speaker 1: I wouldn't feel better necessarily one way or another what
Speaker 1: the FED says. I do think that the FED will
Speaker 1: ultimately be practicing higher for longer as we had thought
Speaker 1: they would at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: To what extent are you hearing the word or the
Speaker 2: term stagflation enter the conversation that you've been having with clients.
Speaker 1: More than we have before. So inflation it seems to
Speaker 1: be settling a lot higher than where we would like
Speaker 1: it to be or where the FED would like it
Speaker 1: to be. But we are seeing slow down in the economy.
Speaker 1: And look, a lot of our clients are small business owners,
Speaker 1: mid sized business owners. They're seeing it before we do
Speaker 1: in the aggregated aggregated data, so they are starting to
Speaker 1: talk about potential stagflation what that may mean for their businesses.
Speaker 3: What's interesting about playing all of this in the markets
Speaker 3: is that even though we haven't seen a cut from
Speaker 3: the FED, they've talked about it, but it's just talk.
Speaker 3: You know, rates are high, and look at the earnings
Speaker 3: estimates they've they've they've not only the earnings have not
Speaker 3: only come in good, but the earnings asked are being
Speaker 3: raised now at the fastest pace in two years. So
Speaker 3: you kind of have to wonder whether or not a
Speaker 3: little bit higher inflation, a little bit higher for longer
Speaker 3: FED is really hurting earnings. It may be slowing the economy,
Speaker 3: but is it hurting earnings in your view?
Speaker 1: Well, I think depends on each company's cash flow profile
Speaker 1: as well as their debt profile. Look a lot of
Speaker 1: the earnings increases. In frankly, the spectacular earnings performance that
Speaker 1: we've seen are in companies that are really flushed with
Speaker 1: cash where the rates don't matter as much. If you
Speaker 1: go down the well capitalization and go into small caps,
Speaker 1: you have a different story there. So I think it
Speaker 1: really depends on the company, and the longer we keep
Speaker 1: rates high, the more difficult it will be. And I
Speaker 1: think we're going to see some deterioration going forward. Large caps,
Speaker 1: it's just going to be not as impacted as much
Speaker 1: as small caps.
Speaker 2: Is that the area that your most let's say focused
Speaker 2: on these days mid caps small caps as opposed to
Speaker 2: the you know, the big blue that we used to
Speaker 2: say we're members of the Dow.
Speaker 1: Well, the large caps have definitely performed a lot better,
Speaker 1: both in terms of earnings in terms of prices. We
Speaker 1: do not ignore large caps. Large caps are way too powerful.
Speaker 1: The momentum there is too powerful. We had a little
Speaker 1: blip in April and then now they're back up, which
Speaker 1: is interesting because they're moving based on you know, these
Speaker 1: macro data and what the FED might do, and it
Speaker 1: really they're they're they're more immune to it than some
Speaker 1: of the smaller companies. We do invest in smaller companies,
Speaker 1: but the smaller companies we have to be a little
Speaker 1: bit more careful because they are more rate sensitive. I mean,
Speaker 1: if you look at the debt side of it, most
Speaker 1: investment great companies are going to be large, and there's
Speaker 1: definitely more comfort in the size, whereas a lot of
Speaker 1: the small companies tend to be higher yield where they
Speaker 1: have to pay for it with even a high credit spread.
Speaker 3: Some of what we're talking about here is really cyclical
Speaker 3: in nature. In terms of secular adjustments, you do have
Speaker 3: the reindustrialization of the US economy, which which may augur
Speaker 3: for accepting a little bit slower pace in consumer spending.
Speaker 3: Do you agree or do you think that that's more hype.
Speaker 1: Do you mean the reshoring or onshoring?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the reshoring, the encouragement of companies to you know,
Speaker 3: retain workers in the United States and to produce locally.
Speaker 3: You know, you've got this big push really right across
Speaker 3: the board. You've got a deglobalization process that is playing
Speaker 3: out over over years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's going to take a really long time. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've been talking, what is it's twenty twenty four pandemic
Speaker 1: started four years ago, and we've been talking about this
Speaker 1: for a while. It is definitely happening, but it is very,
Speaker 1: very slow. Do you see companies talk about capex plans
Speaker 1: to reshure their production. I mean, we're talking about tariffs here.
Speaker 1: I guess it's coming up this week to really strengthen
Speaker 1: the American auto industry. So it's not just coming from
Speaker 1: fears of supply chains. It's also coming from the government
Speaker 1: as well. I do think that in order to stay competitive,
Speaker 1: there is a labor market mismatch problem supply versus demand.
Speaker 1: We're having a hard time even meeting the current demands
Speaker 1: because the supply is just the supply that you need,
Speaker 1: right The skilled labor isn't there. So I don't think
Speaker 1: it's going to have an impact. I do think that
Speaker 1: ultimately the companies will have to make a decision between
Speaker 1: making these investments in the context of higher labor costs,
Speaker 1: which means you have to really do whatever it takes
Speaker 1: to maintain that margin.
Speaker 2: Are you avoiding anything in the fixed income space.
Speaker 1: These I am not avoiding anything. We like fixed and come, well.
Speaker 3: If inflation's sticky, you know that's a concern for sure.
Speaker 3: You might be getting four and a half percent on
Speaker 3: your tenure. Thank you Anna rothbun Cio and CBIZ Investment
Speaker 3: Advisory Services.
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