1 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 2: Welcome to our final episode of the voter Nomics series 3 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 2: where Politics and Markets Collide. I'm Stephanie Flanders. 4 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 3: I'm Adrian Woodridge, and I'm alegra Stratton. 5 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 2: So we set up this podcast with the working thesis 6 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: that this year of elections would not just reshape politics, 7 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 2: but teach us some lessons along the way about the 8 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: conflict between politics and economics. Now that year is nearly over, 9 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 2: we've got most of the elections behind us. We're not 10 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,319 Speaker 2: forgetting the Garnian elections on December seventh, and I think 11 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: we now have German elections coming up in the next 12 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 2: few months. But we did think this was a good 13 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: moment to reflect on how all of those votes have 14 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: panned out and what it means for markets and economies. 15 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 2: A bit later, we're going to speak to Peter Turchin, 16 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: professor and author whose recent book End Times, Elites, Counter 17 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration offers a pretty 18 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: overarching explanation for all of it, not just America's division 19 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: and civil strife, but the device of politics we're seeing 20 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 2: around the world. He says it's all part of a 21 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: basic cycle of integrating and disintegrating forces within societies. That 22 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 2: gets repeated again and again throughout history. And before you 23 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: dismiss all that, you should know that he first predicted 24 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: we would do one of these cycles back in twenty ten. 25 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 2: But first, Adrian Allegra, it's a big question. But maybe Adrian, first, 26 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 2: what are the big themes that you're taking away. 27 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,119 Speaker 3: Well, it's a year of anti incumbency votes overwhelmingly, not 28 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 3: not quite in India, but almost in India. That is 29 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 3: to some extent driven by inflation. And you know, we've 30 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 3: had inflation ripping through the economies of the world and 31 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 3: creating a lot of annoying about existing ruling classes or 32 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: existing political regimes. But I would have add two qualifications 33 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 3: to that over arching view. One is that despite the 34 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 3: anti incumbency things, this anti incumbascy revolution has tended to 35 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 3: resolve in favor of the right rather than the left. 36 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 3: You know, it hasn't been the Corbyns of this world 37 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 3: that have been leading the anti incumbassy revolution. It's been 38 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 3: the Trumps. It's been people on the right in general. 39 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 3: Written a bit of an exception, but overwhelmingly it's a 40 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 3: sort of populist right wing movement. And secondly, America wasn't 41 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 3: entirely an anti incumbency vote. It was a sort of 42 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: restoration vote. You know, people voted for the guy who 43 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 3: was in charge in twenty sixteen because they perceive him 44 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 3: to be a stronger person, perceived that a better age 45 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 3: than one that the Democrats had created. So anti incumbency 46 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 3: driven by inflation, but a strong flavor of the populis right, 47 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 3: and some extent a restoration of the old Trump order 48 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 3: in the most important of these elections, which is United States. 49 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 1: So for me, I think one big theme very similar 50 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: to Adrian's what a surprise. But then actually other than that, 51 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: I don't I think it's quite difficult to see themes. So, yeah, 52 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: inflation is the big killer. It's really hard to get 53 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: back in if people have been made to feel even 54 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: if things getting better, people have been made to feel poorer. 55 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: We did say at the beginning of the series that 56 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: one term governments might get more likely people are dissatisfied 57 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: and choppiness is the result. And I think if you 58 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: look at the actual results, I mean, Adrian's sort of 59 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: sweep is right, but actually the French election, Macrong reduced 60 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: his number of seats, but actually it was the left 61 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: that were victorious there, not per se the far right. 62 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: In the UK, you had a landslide for Starma. I 63 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: think that we were worried about the rise of misinformation 64 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: and so on. We questioned how much social media would 65 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: play a part. In the end, it was podcasts that possibly, 66 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: if not won it, then swayed it in America. I 67 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: am uncomfortable saying they are kind of left right findings 68 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: that were really clear. 69 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: One thing for me, and it maybe that I've been 70 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: thinking too much about the book that we're discussing later 71 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 2: in the episode. But the economic blowback was very much 72 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 2: about the legacy of COVID for the economy, and there 73 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 2: was a reaction to the inflation that had come after 74 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 2: COVID and possibly the sort of mismanagement of some of 75 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 2: the response to COVID, and that obviously was one of 76 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: the overwhelming things driving dissatisfaction with the economy, whether in 77 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:35,119 Speaker 2: the US or elsewhere, but there's also been a react 78 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 2: in many places. There was also a reaction to the 79 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 2: lockdowns and to what that had done to people, the 80 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: isolation that had brought, the impact on schools. It felt 81 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 2: like there had been a sort of building reaction which 82 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 2: I think a lot of sort of mainstream opinion had 83 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 2: just underestimated how wounded people felt and were angry at 84 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 2: the way that COVID not just not about parties and 85 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: number ten or anything else, but about the lockdowns and 86 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: how the inequity that demonstrated in society, the people who 87 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 2: could work from home versus the people who couldn't, the 88 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 2: people who were at schools that found it quite easy 89 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 2: to work from home, and versus the vast majority who work. 90 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 2: When you mix in with that, immigration, which is probably 91 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 2: the second biggest feature driving a lot of these elections, 92 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 2: there is that feel of a scarcity of resources and 93 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 2: the focus on the haves and the have not. And 94 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 2: it's not just money, it's housing and being able to 95 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 2: afford housing. It's schools being full of immigrants. So it's 96 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 2: very striking because it does feel like a throwback to 97 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 2: earlier times. 98 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 3: I think there's a sense in which there's a feeling 99 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 3: of the elites getting it wrong again. The elites, when 100 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 3: they were in charge of the global financial system says 101 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 3: that we can regulating all this finance, and we're in charge, 102 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: and we'll be able to do it. And in fact 103 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,559 Speaker 3: two thousand and eight came along and they got it wrong, 104 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 3: and the elites united behind the idea of the lockdown, 105 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 3: with Sweden as the big exception. And there's a sort 106 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 3: of in retrospect more and more of a sense that actually, 107 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 3: they may have got it wrong. This may have been 108 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 3: a judgment call. That was that they overreacted and they 109 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 3: used their power to lock us down in all sorts 110 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 3: of ways, which was a and overreaction, exposed the over 111 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 3: zealousness of the state. But also they didn't always apply 112 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 3: it to themselves, which is why the parties in number 113 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 3: ten and Dominic Cummings and the rest were so important 114 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 3: to them. And also I think that the thing that 115 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 3: the last point that you talked to, which is immigration, 116 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 3: I think we're at the beginning, not at the end 117 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 3: of concerns, anxieties, the backlash against immigration, and this is 118 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 3: going to sweep through European societies and indeed American and 119 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 3: has swept through American society in a way that's going 120 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 3: to be extremely discombobulating to those elites unless they can recalibrate. 121 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 3: And I would point to the example of Denmark versus Sweden. 122 00:06:55,720 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 3: Sweden took in as many immigrants as will want it, 123 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 3: and is now going through a massive reaction against that. 124 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 3: Denmark was much much more control and it's not a 125 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 3: big political political issue in Denmark. So I think this 126 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 3: populist wave will be more driven in the future. Even 127 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 3: if inflation is tamed, immigration will drive it and continue 128 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 3: to push politics towards the bopylist right in Europe. 129 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: I agree with both of you that the effect of 130 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: lockdown and the pandemic on the UK election and on 131 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: elections around the world has been under reflected on. But 132 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: the aspect I find most challenging is the economic one, 133 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: which is because I think you guys have touched on 134 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: the sort of social aspects of telling people to not 135 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: leave their homes and so on, which still to this 136 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: day is extraordinary, isn't it. But it's more the furlough 137 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: and other bits of economic policy were extremely expensive. That's 138 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,559 Speaker 1: partly why we've then got to a general election where 139 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: a conservative government of all governments has found themselves defending 140 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: having put up taxes and people feeling very kind of 141 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: beleaguered financially. But actually, if we think back to the pandemic, 142 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: we had a situation where the government was paying people's 143 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: wages to not go out. For me, that kind of 144 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: dissonance between Wow, there's a huge amount of financial support 145 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: that flowed from the central government to the people, but 146 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: it was quite quickly forgotten. I'm not saying it shouldn't 147 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: have been forgotten. People move on very quickly, but I 148 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 1: think there was an economic lag to that that had 149 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: a political consequence. And one of the disappointments for me 150 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: about the COVID inquiry is that if we have another pandemic, 151 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: what is the right way to handle it? Is the 152 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: right way to handle it furlough and huge central government programs, 153 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,599 Speaker 1: and of course your challenges are right around is the 154 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: right way of lockdown and so on? And we didn't 155 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: really see the inquiry go into that. And obviously that's 156 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,319 Speaker 1: slightly marginal issue compared to all these elections we've had 157 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: this year, But equally, if we have another pandemic or 158 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 1: another phenomenon that challenges our sense of the nation state 159 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: and the fundamental need for a government to protect people's 160 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: health and so on, what's the right response and what's 161 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: the response that doesn't mean that you are bringing up 162 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: your national debt and your levels of expenditure to eyewatering levels. 163 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 3: What about technology? We're not talking very much about technology 164 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 3: or Russian interference or the political processes being revolutionized by AI. 165 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 3: Was this a year in which the technology dog didn't bark? 166 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: We saw a few, didn't we We saw a few 167 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: sort of fake news and manipulated images, but we didn't 168 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: see it be that instrumental turning factor in an election. 169 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 4: No. 170 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 2: I think it's hard to say. I think that the 171 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 2: very obvious misinformation sort of AI produced videos and things 172 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 2: like that didn't happen. But I mean, when you consider 173 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: that the election campaign that different people in America saw 174 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 2: over the last year was completely different, and we're only 175 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 2: just beginning to get our heads around how much X 176 00:09:55,920 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 2: has changed the way it's feeding things to people. We 177 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 2: had also quite old school techniques around direct mailings to 178 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 2: people that were providing quite a lot of misinformation about 179 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 2: candidates in different places, targeting Jewish voters to say a 180 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 2: certain thing, and targeting Muslim voters for other things. And 181 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 2: ironically that's all enabled by technology because you can send 182 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: it to the right person, but it's actually even more 183 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,559 Speaker 2: below the radar because it's not online. 184 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 3: You could argue the opposite case that this was a 185 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 3: case of very old style politics that Biden clung on 186 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 3: to power for too long. It was too arrogance, he 187 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 3: was too insensitive that he put in a deputy who 188 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 3: is really not very good, and partly did that deliberately 189 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 3: because he didn't want to be challenged. And the Democrats 190 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 3: said enough stupid things that you didn't need lots of 191 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 3: AI to invent stupid things for them to say. 192 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: Especially if it's selectively quoted. But no, I think you're 193 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 2: absolutely right, Adrian. I was going to go to a 194 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 2: last question, which was just the one that I think 195 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 2: was raised by many people at the beginning of the year, 196 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 2: which is is it going to be a good year 197 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 2: for democracy? We have all these elections. Was it a 198 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 2: good year? 199 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 3: Broadly yes, I would say broadly yes. There wasn't social breakdown, 200 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 3: there wasn't a lot of a lot of violence. We 201 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 3: got a clear result in the United States, which was 202 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 3: the big thing that we were worried about, and bad 203 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 3: incumbents were punished, not always good rivals being promoted instead. 204 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:26,959 Speaker 3: But yeah, I think it was a world in which 205 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 3: democracy did its thing and adjusted to popular sentiment. 206 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: Looking at the UK, I think I'll make two different arguments. 207 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: One is that you saw a level of sophistication in 208 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:41,960 Speaker 1: how people were voting potentially tactically in various areas, and 209 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: there's some evidence of that in France as well. So 210 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: firstly that, but secondly, I think that our election in 211 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: the UK was sort of marked for what wasn't said 212 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: and how things have sort of since then been gone 213 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: back on, and I think that is something that will 214 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: leave many people on unsettled that you could have an 215 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: election of six weeks fought on particular issues and then 216 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: actually in the months afterwards some of that is gone 217 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 1: back on. And that is not just a criticism of 218 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: how Labour won the election. Other parties did it too, and. 219 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 2: The UK maybe has some slight exception to this. But 220 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 2: I think I agree with Adrian that it was a 221 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 2: good year for democracy as an instrument, because it has 222 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: expressed the people's will pretty effectively in most countries and 223 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 2: power has shifted to those who inspired more support. I 224 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 2: think it's another extremely difficult year for the political center, 225 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 2: and in France we sort of they've cobbled together a 226 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 2: center right coalition, but I think it was another year 227 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 2: in which we see fewer and fewer voices at the 228 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 2: center of politics, in the middle ground of politics, where 229 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 2: compromise is possible, actually able to command the support of voters. 230 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 2: And I think in the US you have both parties 231 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 2: going to the extremes. 232 00:12:57,559 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 3: I think the great challenge your head is for the 233 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 3: center to reassert itself, rethink its basic principles, and to 234 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 3: try and produce a program that satisfies and addresses the 235 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 3: discontent of regular people while addressing the need for orderly 236 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 3: and sensible government. 237 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 2: Because otherwise I think you do have to worry about 238 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 2: the health of democracy long term. 239 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 4: Absolutely. 240 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 2: In twenty ten, Peter Urchin made a prediction that the 241 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 2: next decade was quote likely to be a period of 242 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 2: growing instability in the United States and Western Europe. His 243 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 2: models developed over many years showed instability could well spike 244 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 2: around the year twenty twenty. Now, if we look back, 245 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 2: that seems like a pretty good prediction, and an awful 246 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 2: lot of things have happened since. That seemed to support 247 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 2: the big themes and cycles that he identified in history 248 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 2: and that led him to that prediction. Churchin is a 249 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 2: project leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna and 250 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 2: a research associate at the University of Oxford. Also Professor 251 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 2: Emeritus at the University of Connecticut. He has written many 252 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 2: books related to his analysis of history going back centuries, 253 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: and his latest one is End Times, Elites, Counter Elites, 254 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 2: and the Path of Political Disintegration. Peter, thank you very 255 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 2: much for being our valedictory guest on voter Nomics. You 256 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 2: get to be part of our reflections on the past year, 257 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 2: but you're taking as giving us a much longer perspective 258 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 2: with this book and the cycles that you identify. There's 259 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 2: so much to go into, and I know that there's 260 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 2: far too much to summarize in a fairly short interview, 261 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 2: but I think your basic point is that there are 262 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 2: cycles which are set off by equilibrium or disequilibrium between 263 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 2: the number of ruling elites and the majority. And I 264 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 2: think particularly, I think for me was very striking is 265 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: the critical role that overproduction of elites plays in triggering 266 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 2: a period of political disintegration and ultimately crisis. So if 267 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 2: you're able to summarize just to give us a brief 268 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 2: sense of how that equilibrium disequilibrium works. 269 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 5: Well, First of all, I defined elites as simply power holders. 270 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 5: Social power is ability to influence the behavior of other 271 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 5: people right, and that takes several routes economic power, political power, 272 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 5: military power, and so and so forth. Now, my research 273 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 5: group has been studying literally hundreds of past societies leading 274 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 5: into crisis in an emergence from them, and we found 275 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 5: that the common precursor to the crisis is what you 276 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 5: call elite overproduction. It really should be said overproduction of 277 00:15:55,440 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 5: aspirant elits, those pupil elite when avis people who desire 278 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 5: to feel for our positions. I like it in the 279 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 5: book to a game of musical chairs, but except like 280 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 5: an usual game where you keep removing chairs, you keep 281 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 5: the number of chairs constant, but instead you increase the 282 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 5: number of players. So it's certainly the original eleven players 283 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 5: for ten chairs, but then fifteen to twenty authority fority. You 284 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 5: can imagine the kios that would result as the numbers 285 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 5: of losers who when you of home become angry increases 286 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 5: so dramatically, and so the same thing happens in the 287 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 5: run up to crisis. There's really a universal feature of 288 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 5: those what do you call structural genographic crisis in our 289 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 5: technical language. 290 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: You have many examples, and you go back through a 291 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 2: lot of European history. I think the striking ones that 292 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 2: you use to crystallize people's thoughts at the beginning of 293 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 2: the book is that the run up to the American 294 00:16:55,160 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 2: Civil War and Abraham Lincoln's election in a similar time 295 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: in the nineteenth century, also the Typing rebellion and the 296 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 2: threat to the ruling order that happened in China which 297 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 2: killed potentially tens of millions of people, and used to 298 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: draw comparisons between those two, and also what we're seeing 299 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 2: now tell us how those two fit the pattern that 300 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 2: you're discussing, and then also sort of now give us 301 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 2: an insight into what's happening now. 302 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 5: Yes, well, as you mentioned, my research group studies the 303 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 5: dynamics of complex societies organized as states. 304 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 4: We shall been around for about. 305 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 5: Five thousand years, and you know that for a while, 306 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 5: maybe a century or so, they can actually enjoy intermal 307 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 5: peace and order, and then they get into periods of 308 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 5: social discombobulation, political disintegration, and the search, which we call 309 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 5: end times. Right, So, these end times happened on the 310 00:17:55,640 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 5: rough diedle of maybe about a couple hundred centuries. Previous 311 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 5: wave of revolutions and civil wars was is what historians 312 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 5: called the Age of revolutions which started in seventeen eighties 313 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 5: and ran into eighteen sixties and seventies. So the American 314 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 5: Civil War ended typeing rebellion that you mentioned got part 315 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 5: of this world wide wave of revolutions in civil wars. 316 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 5: Here in Europe we had revolutions of eighteen forty eight 317 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 5: that affected most major countries except for a British Empire. 318 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 5: By the way, we can talk about why it did 319 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 5: not happen in UK in any case, because this is 320 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 5: the previous complete wave of revolutions, you know how it ended. 321 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 5: Now you don't know what's gonna what the future holds 322 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,640 Speaker 5: for us, right because we cannot really predict the future, 323 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 5: but you know how it all ended in the previous 324 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 5: wave of revolutions. And that's why, because it's to the 325 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 5: closest to us in time, and the societies were quite 326 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 5: similar when you waste That's why it gives us a 327 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 5: very useful map for understanding where we are now. 328 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 3: I suppose one of the great analysis of the over 329 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 3: production of elites is Topville's The French Revolution and the 330 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 3: regime in which you know that is the ultimate cause. 331 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 3: I think he puts to the to the breakdown of 332 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 3: the regime. But I wanted to think a little bit 333 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 3: about diversity, because what we've seen over the last ten 334 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 3: to twenty years is a simultaneous development of the overproduction 335 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,959 Speaker 3: of elites, so people are scrabbling for jobs, and an 336 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 3: enormous emphasis by organizations, particularly in the United States but 337 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 3: also everywhere else on diversity, on the idea that if 338 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 3: there are two people for an elite job, but then 339 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 3: we should put our thumb on the scale of the 340 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: ethnic minority candidate, or the female candidates, or the diverse 341 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 3: candidate in various ways. And that combination of these two doctrines, 342 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,400 Speaker 3: of this doctrine of diversity plus the over production leads 343 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 3: seems to have driven the explosion of Trumpism. Would you 344 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 3: agree with that? 345 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 5: Let me step back and see that, actually, in more 346 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 5: general terms, the ideological content of revolutionary parties or sides 347 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 5: in civil wars, that's various, right, So in the previous 348 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 5: way of revolutions, it was liberalism. 349 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 4: Before that, it was. 350 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 5: The Crisis of the seventeenth century, it was religion. In 351 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 5: the late medieval crisis, it was like the game of 352 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 5: thrones essentially, So then content changes depending on circumstances. 353 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 4: But what is. 354 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 5: Invariable is that the road to crisis is driven by 355 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 5: several factors, two of which are the most important ones. 356 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,719 Speaker 4: First of all, popular inveseration. 357 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 5: It is just what happened in the run up to 358 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,360 Speaker 5: the French Revolution that you mentioned. In fact, the trigger 359 00:20:55,640 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 5: was the increasing prices of food, and then riots, urban 360 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,399 Speaker 5: riots and so on and so forth. But by that 361 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 5: point there was a huge number of elite one abs 362 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 5: and they are the ones who channeled and organized popular 363 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 5: discontent to overthrow the uncild regime. And this is a 364 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 5: very very generale thing. In fact, today when we go 365 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 5: back to look at the United States, what we see 366 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 5: we see the revolt of counter elites, right, because I 367 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 5: consider the elections of this year on November five as 368 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 5: a successful battle in that ongoing revolutionary wars between the 369 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 5: ruling class, which was represented by the Democratic Party and 370 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 5: the country leits which have found their home in the 371 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 5: Republican Party. 372 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 3: The reason why I think diversity is so important is 373 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 3: that diversity is about we're talking about the allocation of 374 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 3: scarce goods, of goods that getting scarcer, and what diversity 375 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 3: is is a principle for allocating those scarce goods, which 376 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 3: has losers as well as winners. And a lot of 377 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 3: those losers, whether they were poorer people or richer people, 378 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 3: coalesced around Trump. There were you know, a lot of men, 379 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 3: a lot of people who didn't have the right credentials, 380 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 3: a lot of people who felt that they were being 381 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 3: a bit done down, and amongst ethnic minorities, people who 382 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 3: were business people rather than members of the credential deletes. 383 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 3: So I think diversity is a particularly dangerous thing in 384 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 3: an era of scarce resources, or of a perception of 385 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 3: scarce resources. But I wonder if you could say something 386 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 3: a bit more about the counter elites, as it were. 387 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,879 Speaker 3: I'm just thinking, for example, to what extent does Trump 388 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 3: represent the revolts of family businesses against big public corporations. 389 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 5: For example? 390 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 3: What are these counter elites and is what is driving 391 00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,640 Speaker 3: their annoyance with the status quo? 392 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, that's historical. 393 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 5: Examples of counter elits are Lagid religion and the bolshidiits 394 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 5: in Russia, or Fidel Castro and Los Barbudos in Cuba. 395 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 5: All right, So what happens is that, remember we talked 396 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 5: about this game of musical cheers. As a number of 397 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 5: angry losers increases, some of them accept downward social mediolity 398 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 5: and don't make trouble. But a certain proportion of them 399 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 5: are actually they turned into counter It's now their goal 400 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 5: is that they have not made it in the following 401 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 5: normal channels. 402 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 4: That's because there are just too many of. 403 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 5: Them, right, and so now they start using extra legal 404 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 5: channels to get into power. Now, Donald Trump is a 405 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 5: classical count relate because if you think about it, you 406 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:52,439 Speaker 5: go back to twenty eleven, that famous junior ker for 407 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 5: reporters at the White House where Obama publicly you. 408 00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 3: Know that was in the White House corresponds dinners that 409 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 3: were saying that it's extraordary. 410 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 6: No one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter 411 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 6: to rest than the Donald. And that's because he can 412 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 6: finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter. 413 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:23,439 Speaker 6: Why did we fake the moon landing? What really happened 414 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 6: in Roswell? And where are Biggie and Tupac? 415 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 5: I don't know what happened in his mind, but he 416 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 5: started plotting revenge for his head. 417 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,199 Speaker 2: And he was not laughing. He was not laughing, and 418 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 2: everybody else was laughing. 419 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly. He was very green and you know, well, 420 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 5: but more recently his counterleit status is proved by ninety 421 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 5: four ninety six, you know, criminal charges against him. Right Basically, 422 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,880 Speaker 5: the way he is treated in the press, the mainstream 423 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 5: press always says that he always lies, which he does, 424 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 5: but the treatment is very different from established politicians. Right now, 425 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 5: my point is that he is just the tip of 426 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 5: the iceberg. 427 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 4: We saw. 428 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 5: What we saw in the last year or so was 429 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 5: the coal essons of very diverse group of country elits. 430 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 5: If you think about it, some of them, like JD. Evans, 431 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 5: come from a very humble background. But he's got excellent credentials. 432 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 5: I believe it's Yale Law school, all right. That's that's 433 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 5: the thing that many of these accountryles who come from below, 434 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 5: they have excellent credentials. Right, So he rocketed his way 435 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:38,439 Speaker 5: through the Republican you know, political ranks. But you have 436 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 5: the factors from the Democratic Party Robert Kennedy Junior, RFK 437 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 5: Junior or Tussy Gabbard, and then we have people coming 438 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 5: from the wealth holders will Elan Mascow obviously is the 439 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 5: most important one, and people coming who are influencers such 440 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 5: as Tucker Carlson and more recently Joe Rogan. So what 441 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 5: we see here is you see this very diverse group 442 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 5: and in fact it's not clear whether they would be 443 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 5: able to hold these coalitions for very long because they're 444 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 5: so different. But they have all collapsed with the goal 445 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:13,959 Speaker 5: of overthrowing the ruling regime. 446 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 2: It is striking that you have particular professions that end 447 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 2: up attracting a particularly large number of revolutionaries or counter elites. 448 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 2: And I guess it's it seems like it's the teachers 449 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 2: and the lawyers that you have to particularly worry about. 450 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,719 Speaker 2: You point out that the Robes bier lenin Castro they 451 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 2: were all lawyers. Also Lincoln, but you also and you 452 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 2: had the leader of the Typing rebellion and Mao were 453 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 2: both teachers. 454 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, so China is somewhat different. 455 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 5: But lawyers are the most dangerous profession, especially in the 456 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 5: United States. That your routes to political office in the 457 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 5: United States, the wealth throughout and the credential route. Well 458 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 5: but actually well noticed that podcasters have not been very 459 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 5: eager to go into the official positions, or some who 460 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 5: try it we're not successful. 461 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,439 Speaker 4: But anyway, so lawyers is. 462 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 5: If you don't have wealth, then you go in the 463 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 5: United States, you go to law school to play in politics, 464 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 5: and in particular Jale Law School seems to have produced 465 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 5: quite a lot of counter eliits. 466 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: Peter It is Alekra here, can I just ask you? 467 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 1: You talked about Trump right now being the tip of 468 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 1: the iceberg, and I kind of want to know sort 469 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: of where next. There's many many ways that people simplify 470 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 1: your analysis of the world, but one of them is 471 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: sort of the apoge of these trends lead leads to collapse. 472 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 1: What I would like to know is when we are 473 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 1: looking at the Trump administration right now, are we looking 474 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 1: at a precursor to collapse or are we potentially looking 475 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 1: at the sort of aversion the way to head it off, 476 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 1: Because because as you say, you've got the kind of 477 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: counter elites now looking like they're going to be in 478 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 1: the extent to which they could potentially bring in policies 479 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 1: that sort of address this and all become a valve. 480 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,439 Speaker 1: And if you look across the UK, Brexit was the 481 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 1: apogee of the counter elites getting their way again. How 482 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 1: much how much did these phenomena did they avert it 483 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 1: or hasten its likelihood? 484 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 5: One major point I'm making the book is that the 485 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 5: road to crisis is actually fairly predictable. Obviously in twenty ten, 486 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 5: I had no idea, would you don't know Trump, who 487 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:37,360 Speaker 5: would be the spearhead of this rebellion. But the structural 488 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 5: forces were gathering scheme, and they continue to do so. 489 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 5: In fact, they continue to do so even as we speak. 490 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: Your point about in miseration as a kind of the 491 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: stalling of living standards. That's the moment, isn't it. 492 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 5: Yeah. So actually the key, the key idea here is 493 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 5: what are called the weal's pump. So the weal's pump 494 00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 5: which basically started taking reaches from the poor and given 495 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 5: to the reach. It's actually started way back more than 496 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 5: forty years ago in the United States, and so it 497 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 5: is actually the deep reason why we both have immiseration 498 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 5: and why we have a litle production, because we have 499 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 5: created ten times as many other wealthy in the last 500 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 5: forty years has existed in nineteen eighty, all right, And 501 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 5: so some of them, like Trump, have decided to go 502 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 5: into politics. The second route two counter it leads, is 503 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 5: that as you increase back in miseration, the more active, 504 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 5: the more organized and smart members of these inviserated masses 505 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 5: they want to escape. And that's why there has been 506 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 5: such a huge demand for credentials. College degree doesn't work 507 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 5: any more, Stule. That's why people go to professional schools, 508 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 5: and particularly to the law school. 509 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 4: All right. So in order for. 510 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 5: Us to get out of this predicament that you find 511 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 5: ourselves in, and that's what the previous societies have done, 512 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 5: the wealth pump needs to be down, which will reverse 513 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 5: the immiseration and the lid of a production forces. And that, 514 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 5: after some years and sometimes decames of social and political turbulence, 515 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 5: leads to the society reconfiguring itself and stepping on the 516 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 5: road to a lengthy period of internal peace and order. 517 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 3: If you think of modern America, what would reconfiguration look like? 518 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 3: Fewer university places, fewer public sector jobs, more dynamic private sector. 519 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 4: Would that be it? 520 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 5: Or it would look actually not very different from the 521 00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 5: new geo. Right, So what we need to do We 522 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 5: need to give more power to workers. I mean that's 523 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 5: one of the New Deal was rolled back starting in 524 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 5: late seventies and especially under the Reagan administration. It was 525 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 5: very clear when the ability of workers to organize and 526 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 5: to push for their rights was severely curtailed. 527 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 4: So we need to do that. Remember that famous draft. 528 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 5: Where see the productivity of American workers keep going up, 529 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 5: their and their wages, compensation going up until lateeen seventies 530 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:09,959 Speaker 5: and then becoming flat. 531 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,360 Speaker 4: So all that extra productivity went somewhere. 532 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 5: It went actually to the wall, to the one percent 533 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 5: when it came two percent and flip percent in the process. Right, 534 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 5: So what we need to do we need to get 535 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:25,320 Speaker 5: back the wages, worker wages and the media, the typical 536 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 5: wages back on track, so they increased together with the economy. 537 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 3: G If you look at the coalition that is the 538 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 3: Trump coalition, there's a new Deal wing of the Trump 539 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 3: coalition that would agree with everything you've said. But then 540 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 3: there's also a musk Till wing of the of the 541 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 3: Trump coalition who believes exactly the opposite that we need more, 542 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 3: we need more, you know, more billionaires. 543 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 2: Given that Peter has such a global focus in the book, 544 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 2: I do want to make sure that we're not just 545 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 2: I know, we find it hard to look beyond the 546 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 2: US these days, and certainly that seems to be paving 547 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 2: the way to a lot of this. 548 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 5: But Stephanie, let me just finish my thought very very bigly. 549 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 5: So my major thing that I would like to add 550 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 5: to the discussion is that once you get to the 551 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 5: cusp right of the revolution, of civil wars, it's revolutionary situation. 552 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 5: The future is very unpredictable. It depends very much on 553 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 5: the actions of leaders. If readers are prosocial and understand 554 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 5: even into each of you what they are doing, then 555 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 5: you can escape oblige a civil war and revolution. 556 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 4: This is a big question. 557 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 2: Very it's not very encouraging the end of your book, 558 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 2: when you look at what has how these periods of 559 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:40,360 Speaker 2: crisis have been resolved, it is not a very encouraging story. 560 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 2: I think three quarters of the men did in revolutions. 561 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 2: Also a wars nearly two thirds led to the states 562 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:50,680 Speaker 2: ceasing to exist altogether. The ruler tends to get knocked 563 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 2: off or at least quite high chance of being assassinated. 564 00:32:55,200 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 2: If you think sort of how these forces are developing globally, 565 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,480 Speaker 2: and we've obviously seen some of these also operating, particularly 566 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 2: in Europe. What makes these cycles longer or shorter. We've 567 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 2: talked about the role of COVID and epidemics, for example, 568 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 2: which is very striking when you look at your history record. 569 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 2: And then yes, we are of course interested in what 570 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 2: happens next, but maybe not just in the US, but 571 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,320 Speaker 2: sort of more broadly what you might see. 572 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 5: Cycles of peace and internal violence. They're not perfectly synchronized 573 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 5: between different countries. So, for example, in France, you see 574 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 5: that France is behind because the degree of you know, 575 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 5: one useful measure is the degree of inequality. And then 576 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 5: France inequality in wealth and the income has started increasing 577 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 5: much later than in the United States or r Key, 578 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 5: all right, and so that means that they have they're 579 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 5: only in the middle of the degree. 580 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 2: Of political frustration seems to be catching up pretty fast. 581 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 2: So were they somehow? So what is it about the 582 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 2: French society which is translating a relatively into a large 583 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 2: amount of political upset. 584 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:09,760 Speaker 3: They're natural protesters. 585 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:14,879 Speaker 5: The o vest and demonstration did not lead anywhere. They 586 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 5: did not overthrow the Macron regime. Let's call it is like, right, 587 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 5: and why because there were no countries and others they 588 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,959 Speaker 5: stayed away, right, They decided not to mount this wave 589 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 5: of protests, unlike what happened in the population. 590 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 2: Is vaiting for the for marine le pen now at 591 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:38,239 Speaker 2: least a third. 592 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, right, But Macron government managed to stay in power 593 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:48,400 Speaker 5: despite despite the crushing defeat at the polls. This is 594 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 5: actually a quite typical behavior for unc and resumes. 595 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,319 Speaker 2: So what makes the I think it's around two hundred years, 596 00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,359 Speaker 2: you say, the sort of full cycle, but what makes 597 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 2: what makes it longer or so, I mean, what are 598 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 2: the kinds of futures that we could see in different places. 599 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 5: Epidemics certainly bring in times closer because they increased in 600 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 5: miseration dramatically. But on the other hand, there's you know, 601 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 5: let's go you're based in UK, so in the nineteenth century. 602 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 5: One reason why United Kingdom has escaped the wave of 603 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 5: revolutions was because it had a huge empire. It shipped 604 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:29,360 Speaker 5: a lot of im miserated population to places like Australia, 605 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 5: and it shipped a lot of surplus elites to be 606 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 5: colonial administrators in India and as such, and that allowed 607 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 5: them to flatten the curve, so to speak, using the 608 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:46,200 Speaker 5: coded language. That gave them time to actually adopt the 609 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,240 Speaker 5: necessary reforms. It took them, you know, the charges period 610 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,200 Speaker 5: was like twenty years, and in fact, this whole period 611 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 5: of reforms took like forty years. It took a long 612 00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:01,399 Speaker 5: time to configure the British society that you could go 613 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,919 Speaker 5: get back into another period of quite high prosperity during 614 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 5: the Victorian era. All right, So so what I'm trying 615 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,200 Speaker 5: to say, you're as looking for a general answer, and 616 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 5: I'm trying to tell you that right now we don't 617 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 5: see a general answer. There is no such thing as 618 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,959 Speaker 5: a typical collapse. Every collapse is you know, like every 619 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 5: un happy family is happy in their own ways using 620 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 5: tells toys, uh, you know, an accurrna. So we are 621 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 5: working very hard trying to understand, to get statistical classification 622 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 5: and understanding. And that's why we need hundreds of past 623 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 5: crisis right because you cannot do statistics just a few examples. 624 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 5: But but we do. My group does not have yet 625 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 5: good answers. And by the way, it would help if 626 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:58,280 Speaker 5: you would get funding. Actually, because we apply for grants, 627 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,439 Speaker 5: write proposals and we get you know, I guess it's 628 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 5: not important. 629 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 4: So I understand how you get back. 630 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 5: How to get out of this? 631 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 2: It's in the name. Maybe End Times just sounds a 632 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,839 Speaker 2: bit kind of bad. Maybe you need a bit more 633 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,200 Speaker 2: of an upbeat title. 634 00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,600 Speaker 3: How to fix society. 635 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 1: There's a lot of those books already. 636 00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 5: That's my next book, which I am pledging right now. 637 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 1: Pete, can I ask you perhaps something I don't particularly believe, 638 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 1: but I'm going to posit it just just to see 639 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,839 Speaker 1: what you say, which is that elites are needed if 640 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 1: you look. If you look in the UK, we have 641 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,799 Speaker 1: a debate here. For instance, the new labor government is 642 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:38,160 Speaker 1: trying to is trying to give more power to workers, 643 00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,840 Speaker 1: and there's been a huge upcry about Hold on a 644 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,719 Speaker 1: second you have in the case, you know, we have big, 645 00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:48,640 Speaker 1: big multinational companies saying you're adding to our wage bill. 646 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,160 Speaker 1: You are, You've there's a number of policies that are 647 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 1: making things more expensive for them. And firstly you have 648 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,839 Speaker 1: the fact that some elites are mobile, so they can 649 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,800 Speaker 1: go elsewhere. And then you have a different debate around 650 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 1: oh goodness as a nation where we're not able to 651 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,719 Speaker 1: make as much money as we would like to and 652 00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,720 Speaker 1: therefore we can't share as much around. So there isn't 653 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,240 Speaker 1: there there's a kind of there's a complex of course 654 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,560 Speaker 1: your your analysis of complex societies, but there's a there's 655 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:19,080 Speaker 1: a difficult interplay between A elites can flounce off firstly, 656 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,280 Speaker 1: and B you need some of those kind of drivers 657 00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,120 Speaker 1: of hyper wealth in order for wealth to be shared. 658 00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,600 Speaker 4: I would disagree with that because worldwide. 659 00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,719 Speaker 5: It's not just states, but UK also in particular has 660 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 5: seen an explosion in the number of uber wealth all right, 661 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 5: so that wealth came at the expense of the typical workers. 662 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:47,600 Speaker 5: So I'm sorry, but I just don't buy this thing that, 663 00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:51,120 Speaker 5: you know, why do we need billionaires after all? I mean, 664 00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,400 Speaker 5: if you think about that, you know, in order to 665 00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:58,040 Speaker 5: have the most yeah, I know, Bloomberg. 666 00:38:58,640 --> 00:38:59,920 Speaker 4: Well, I think the role. 667 00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 5: Of you know, of these billionaires in creating wealth is 668 00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:10,359 Speaker 5: somewhat overstated. And secondly, I would say that look at 669 00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 5: the historical periods, you know, look at places like the 670 00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:18,360 Speaker 5: Nordic countries that have produced a lot of successful business 671 00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 5: at Axbedien for example, Yeah, the Denbark, Sweden, Norway, all 672 00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:27,760 Speaker 5: those countries have produced a lot of very successful companies. 673 00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,840 Speaker 5: Look at the United States during the Great Compression period, 674 00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:34,160 Speaker 5: so from the new Geo antiore roughly speaking, nineteen eighty 675 00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,680 Speaker 5: peak rates on even Texes well like over ninety percent 676 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,680 Speaker 5: in nineteen sixties, but the country was doing great. So 677 00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:45,920 Speaker 5: I don't buy this argument that by increasing taxes on 678 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,400 Speaker 5: the wealthy we are going to shut down the economic growth. 679 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,440 Speaker 1: It does seem to me that the fundamental point is 680 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,200 Speaker 1: the elites have to share, and they have to share 681 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,640 Speaker 1: because they have to understand that if they don't share, 682 00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,840 Speaker 1: the music stops. To your point about the physical chairs, 683 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,800 Speaker 1: and it stops for them, and it stopped and collapse 684 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,600 Speaker 1: and so on. What are the best examples of the 685 00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,200 Speaker 1: elite elite understanding that they have to share. 686 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 5: Yes, I talked about a number of such examples in 687 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,080 Speaker 5: my book, so I already mentioned the. 688 00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:18,520 Speaker 4: Chartist period in UK. 689 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 5: Another example that might actually surprise you is the Great 690 00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:28,200 Speaker 5: Reforms in Russia in the Russian Empire in eighteen sixties, 691 00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:34,440 Speaker 5: all right, when the Czar Alexander the Second basically told 692 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,440 Speaker 5: the elites that we either have revolution from below or 693 00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:42,799 Speaker 5: reforms from above and so and the other one is, 694 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:47,480 Speaker 5: of course the New Deal, which followed on the Progressive era. 695 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,440 Speaker 5: So it took about thirty years to do this, And 696 00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 5: there are a few other examples. As Stephanie mentioned. Unfortunately 697 00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,759 Speaker 5: this is only ten or fifteen percent of crisis are 698 00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:02,000 Speaker 5: resolved without a major revolution or civil war. But you 699 00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:07,320 Speaker 5: have plenty of examples where we see this actually happening, 700 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,000 Speaker 5: and we can draw lessons. Maybe it doesn't mean that 701 00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,239 Speaker 5: you have to do you have to free the serfs 702 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,799 Speaker 5: as Alexander the second Gid. But the point is is 703 00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:20,960 Speaker 5: that the large segments of the elites have to be 704 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:26,480 Speaker 5: persuaded that it's either you know those either lose everything 705 00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,720 Speaker 5: and you don't believe that your house in New Zealand 706 00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,080 Speaker 5: is actually going to save you. 707 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:38,320 Speaker 4: Right the banker mte. Or you give up give. 708 00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,839 Speaker 5: Up some of that you know, of the wealth and 709 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,800 Speaker 5: privilege and power that you have accrued. 710 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,440 Speaker 1: Do you think that things get worse from here in 711 00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,839 Speaker 1: terms of violence and uprising And the point of your book, 712 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,239 Speaker 1: which is civil war. 713 00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,360 Speaker 5: The chances that you don't get worse and you have 714 00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,719 Speaker 5: a had civil war a non zero. I would not 715 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,640 Speaker 5: say there are fifty percent. There's somewhere in zero and 716 00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,600 Speaker 5: fifty percent. So those chances are very real and we 717 00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:07,080 Speaker 5: should be really. 718 00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,920 Speaker 4: Worried about them. But it's not certain. 719 00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:14,759 Speaker 5: Judging from our analysis of historical societies, we know that 720 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:20,239 Speaker 5: there is no inevitability about this crisis. So it all 721 00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:24,239 Speaker 5: depends on our collective decisions and of course on our 722 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:29,680 Speaker 5: leaders that who are the most consequential in resolving which 723 00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,880 Speaker 5: trajectory we follow in the future. 724 00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,240 Speaker 3: But at least this time around, Viennery's safe well it's. 725 00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,640 Speaker 4: Good to be it's good to gain to experience audience 726 00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,719 Speaker 4: right here. To be truthful, I'm not a. 727 00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:45,000 Speaker 5: Revolution I'm not revolutionary. I'm not going to fight on 728 00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:48,040 Speaker 5: the very cads right. I don't want this to happen 729 00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:48,520 Speaker 5: around me. 730 00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:49,720 Speaker 4: That's for sure. 731 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:54,160 Speaker 5: And I hope the American lead's sort of understand that 732 00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,120 Speaker 5: they have to give up some of their power, privilege, 733 00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,480 Speaker 5: and wealth in order to have a pissel is alution. 734 00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:04,880 Speaker 5: So that's sort of my major message for them. 735 00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:06,399 Speaker 2: Peterterchin, thank you so much. 736 00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:07,279 Speaker 4: That was fascinating. 737 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,799 Speaker 2: Thank you for listening to Voter Nomics from Bloomberg. This 738 00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,320 Speaker 2: episode was hosted by me Stephanie Flanders with Adrian Wildridge 739 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:23,160 Speaker 2: and Allegra Stratton. It was produced, as always by the 740 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,840 Speaker 2: inimitable Summer Sadi, with production support from Moses and sound 741 00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,080 Speaker 2: designed from Blake Maples and special thanks. 742 00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:31,720 Speaker 4: To Peter Turchin. 743 00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,680 Speaker 2: Stay tuned to this feed for what we do next, 744 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,800 Speaker 2: and thank you again for listening.