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Speaker 2: Alex Steel here alongside Mike Reagan Wolswheeny is off today.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the
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Speaker 2: also make sure that we tap our great team of
Speaker 2: reporters all across the globe to really delve into the
Speaker 2: key stories of our time. And for that we go
Speaker 2: to Ethan Broner, Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief, and he
Speaker 2: joins us. Now, where are these ceasefire talks at the moment?
Speaker 2: The reports are coming in fast and furious, Ethan, of
Speaker 2: issues that keep bubbling up.
Speaker 3: Well, Alex, if we could answer that question, it's a
Speaker 3: great question. Look, we don't know. For at least a
Speaker 3: dozen hours. The Israelis have been saying that what the
Speaker 3: so called finished deal was suddenly reopened, that Hamas was
Speaker 3: insisting on certain aspects of demands with regard to which
Speaker 3: prisoners would be released that Israel had not agreed to
Speaker 3: that was not part of the original deal. And they're
Speaker 3: still saying that. The senior officials justin a half an
Speaker 3: hour ago issued a similar statement that Haramas is making
Speaker 3: demands that Israel will never meet and therefore, so far
Speaker 3: there's no cabinet called to approve this deal and the
Speaker 3: deal is on hold.
Speaker 4: I wonder if you could describe to us what it's
Speaker 4: like on the ground there as this process unfolds. I mean,
Speaker 4: is there actually peace and quiet right now or is
Speaker 4: there still conflict brewing? Is there still fighting going on?
Speaker 3: So there's an enormous amount of fighting going on. Israel
Speaker 3: has stepped up its military activity in Gaza today and
Speaker 3: in fact, at one point Hamas issued a statement saying
Speaker 3: that one of the female hostages that they're holding that
Speaker 3: where she was being held in a place that had
Speaker 3: been hit by the Israelis. So you know, whether that's
Speaker 3: really true or not, we don't know, but there's there's
Speaker 3: plenty of that going on as well, so it's not
Speaker 3: we're not does not feel like we're on the verge
Speaker 3: of a real deal. If you forced me to guess,
Speaker 3: I would guess that they will solve their problems in
Speaker 3: the Katar and that by tonight or tomorrow there will
Speaker 3: be a cabinet approval of this deal. But I'm really
Speaker 3: not sure.
Speaker 2: What is it like in Benjaminta who's cabinet right now?
Speaker 3: Well, I mean the cabinet is going to approve the deal.
Speaker 3: He does have too far right cabinet members who are
Speaker 3: vehemently opposed to it, one of whom has said he
Speaker 3: would walk out of the government if it passed, the
Speaker 3: other of whom has said, well, I would give it
Speaker 3: the first six week tranch that we've talked about, and
Speaker 3: if you don't promise to go back to fighting after that,
Speaker 3: then I'll walk. So I think we'll have to see,
Speaker 3: because it maybe depends on what fighting means and you
Speaker 3: know what will happen. But I think for the moment,
Speaker 3: the cabinet is secure if they can solve the problem
Speaker 3: that they say is going on in Katar right now.
Speaker 4: An Ethan, what sort of how do you sort of
Speaker 4: handicap the potential success of this ceasefire deal, do you
Speaker 4: suspect that both sides really will agree to it? I mean,
Speaker 4: we've seen so many times in the past where we
Speaker 4: thought we had accords that that sort of fell through.
Speaker 4: What what do you expect from this one?
Speaker 3: I expect failure, Yeah, and what does failure look like?
Speaker 2: Smiles.
Speaker 3: Failure will mean more of the same. It'll mean that
Speaker 3: the Israel will not remove its troops from Gaza. It
Speaker 3: means that they will continue to be fighting, that the
Speaker 3: hostages will be held. Now, of course, then we'll have
Speaker 3: a new administration in the United States, which in theory
Speaker 3: is more hawkish and or in line with that, and
Speaker 3: we'll have to see what that means in terms of
Speaker 3: what kind of more severe fighting against Hamas is to
Speaker 3: be to expect, but that is my instinct.
Speaker 2: Do we have an idea of what Israel is going
Speaker 2: to be or Benjamin and Yah who will be talking
Speaker 2: to President Trump about come basically Tuesday.
Speaker 3: Look, I mean, I think that the few things that
Speaker 3: the most immediate on their agenda are re stocking Israel's
Speaker 3: weapons and so on in terms of its ability to fight.
Speaker 3: And then the biggest question is what to do about
Speaker 3: Iran and its nuclear program, So I think those are
Speaker 3: the things that are going to preoccupy them.
Speaker 4: Does the hawkishness hawkishness on the part of Trump, do
Speaker 4: you think that will have any impact on how Hamas
Speaker 4: views this whole situation. Could it actually scare them into
Speaker 4: compliance or.
Speaker 3: Do the That was the idea, I mean, that was
Speaker 3: the that was sort of the argument until last night,
Speaker 3: and it may still. I think that Hamas is in
Speaker 3: a much more vulnerable position than it was six months ago,
Speaker 3: not just because of President Trump, but because of having
Speaker 3: lost its leaders and the fact that his BELA is
Speaker 3: no longer able to help it. The Syrian regime has collapsed,
Speaker 3: and that Iran is stripped of a lot of its
Speaker 3: air defense systems, so it's alone. It doesn't have the
Speaker 3: support system that thought it would have, so in theory,
Speaker 3: it got more involved with negotiating this deal. But you know,
Speaker 3: it's also you know, a fairly extremist organization that in
Speaker 3: theory is not afraid of death, and so it's very
Speaker 3: hard to know.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, we appreciate all of your insight. Thank
Speaker 2: you so much. Ethan Browner. He's joining us at Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Israel Bureau chief.
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Speaker 2: Some economic data today. It looks like we are still
Speaker 2: spending not too shabby for December, and we've got some
Speaker 2: initial jobless claims as well. Luckily Michael McKee, Bloomerg International
Speaker 2: Economics and Policy correspondent, is joining us. What's my takeaway
Speaker 2: from jobless in retail sales?
Speaker 5: Pretty good day.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 5: You know, Joe Biden's economic victory tour continues. He's getting
Speaker 5: good data as he prepares to leave office. The retail
Speaker 5: sales numbers disappointing on the headline, but that was largely
Speaker 5: due to things that don't go into the GDP number.
Speaker 5: We like to look at the retail sales control group,
Speaker 5: which is the stuff that actually gets counted in GDP,
Speaker 5: and that was up seven tenths, which is a lot
Speaker 5: more than last month four tenth and a lot more
Speaker 5: than the four tenth that was forecast. So that was
Speaker 5: the good news. The jobless claims figures were up, but
Speaker 5: that was largely in part because of bad weather in
Speaker 5: the Midwest, but also in part because of the California fires.
Speaker 5: It appears California jobless claims what more than thirteen thousand
Speaker 5: during the week. That's unadjusted, so it'll show up as
Speaker 5: one of the biggest movers next week. But when you
Speaker 5: look down into the numbers, you can see that this
Speaker 5: is already having an impact, and I think that's going
Speaker 5: to be a continuing story. We're going to be looking
Speaker 5: at most of the data to see what the California effect,
Speaker 5: the Los Angeles effect is.
Speaker 4: Like, I feel like there have been so many predictions
Speaker 4: of doom and gloom for the consumer with higher inflation,
Speaker 4: higher interest rates. Is it surprising to you to see
Speaker 4: this much resilience or is it just a matter of, Hey,
Speaker 4: the job market remains strong. Of course, consumers are going
Speaker 4: to continue to spend.
Speaker 5: That is the case. I am a little surprised in
Speaker 5: the sense that Americans got very used to low interest
Speaker 5: rates and got very used to discount pricing all the
Speaker 5: time during the two twenty tens, and so the fact
Speaker 5: that they're willing to overlook where interest rates are now
Speaker 5: is kind of interesting now that people at the lower
Speaker 5: ends of the economic spectrum are struggling now at least
Speaker 5: inflation has come down, but they don't have the money
Speaker 5: that other people do, so this is driven more by
Speaker 5: the upper middle and upper classes. But it's still kind
Speaker 5: of interesting given that we've sort of flipped from the
Speaker 5: old normal to the new normal and back to the
Speaker 5: old normal.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I think one of the wildest headlines I saw the
Speaker 4: morning was surprisingly strong sales of Cartier jewelry, So I
Speaker 4: guess that speaks to that high end.
Speaker 5: I guess you talk Alex about that in no way whatsoever.
Speaker 2: Tom Kum is just expounding on that, but to the
Speaker 2: point that the high end consumer still do particularly.
Speaker 5: No, we've seen that, and there was a story today
Speaker 5: on how European luxury brands are all launching new products
Speaker 5: and doing well even though the economy in Europe is
Speaker 5: much worse than ours in.
Speaker 2: China's still a little bit TVD on that as well.
Speaker 6: What's the next set up? What you care about?
Speaker 2: Give me the NERD.
Speaker 5: PCE is going to be the one that people care
Speaker 5: about because it will influence the FAED, although it's not
Speaker 5: going to have any influence on this month, but it
Speaker 5: could come in about as forecast. Yesterday we were thinking
Speaker 5: of come in a little light, but then international airfares
Speaker 5: came in high in the month of December, so that
Speaker 5: might push it up. But at this point we're all
Speaker 5: kind of looking to March, and the data point for
Speaker 5: March comes in on Monday.
Speaker 2: Well, speaking of Chris Waller is on CNBC right now
Speaker 2: and he's saying that he doesn't think March can be
Speaker 2: ruled out for a.
Speaker 5: Rate cut, So to give the devil there, we could
Speaker 5: get strong enough growth and it's just going to depend
Speaker 5: on how the markets react to whatever Belald Trump does.
Speaker 2: All right, Mike, thanks a lot. Mike McKee, Bloomerg International
Speaker 2: Economics and Policy Correspondent.
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Speaker 2: So the other side of the coin is what's happening
Speaker 2: with big banks. I mean, these numbers were just tremendous.
Speaker 2: We've got all of them in Bank of America Morgan
Speaker 2: Stanley today. I mean Morgan Stanley profit doubling as the
Speaker 2: company takes some big stock trading beats. Here, let's get
Speaker 2: more on this with Allison and Williams. She's a Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Intelligence senior analyst for global banks and asset managers. Okay,
Speaker 2: what's my word to describe the big banks over the
Speaker 2: last forty eight hours? Green green, Okay, meaning they're making a.
Speaker 6: Bowl, not green, climate friendly. That's that's the whole other story.
Speaker 6: But I would say, you know, I mean, first of all,
Speaker 6: the trading members, wow, especially for the leaders. You know,
Speaker 6: Morgan Stanley really coming with that fifty percent growth and
Speaker 6: equities trading, but you know, Morgan Stanley, gold and JP
Speaker 6: Morgan really strength. I mean big Bag also had good numbers,
Speaker 6: but especially strong there. The banking fee recovery is what
Speaker 6: people are focusing on, you know, not as strong, but
Speaker 6: really positive comments around the pipeline. Morgan Stanley's saying today
Speaker 6: IPO pipeline like best in several years, or to that effect.
Speaker 6: Golden Sachs also talking about strength and the equities pipeline
Speaker 6: and the fees there really strong. Deaf fees actually disappointing
Speaker 6: a little bit, but they've been so they've been sort
Speaker 6: of carrying the ball for the banking business for a while,
Speaker 6: so IPO fees. I think really the strength and the
Speaker 6: banking pipelines trading good. But at the core for the
Speaker 6: banks is better net interest income, better net interest income
Speaker 6: in the quarter, better net interest income guidance, a cost
Speaker 6: guidance better than feared. For Wells Fargo and City Group
Speaker 6: in particular. That's a key positive back of America talking
Speaker 6: about operating leverage and credit credit solid. We haven't talked
Speaker 6: a lot about credit and generally that's a good sign
Speaker 6: signed that things are good that there's not much talk about.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Also, I wonder if those high trading revenues is that
Speaker 4: something typically we see around presidential election. I mean that
Speaker 4: I'm assuming that creates a lot of volume that is
Speaker 4: sort of not indicative of what the rest of the
Speaker 4: year is like.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think, I mean especially for you know, this election, right,
Speaker 6: so anything that is driving people to reposition their portfolios.
Speaker 6: So the volatility numbers, if you look at headline volatility,
Speaker 6: it's probably not you know, especially for last year, the
Speaker 6: numbers have been kind of disappointing. But I think just
Speaker 6: the fact that underneath the service there are a lot
Speaker 6: of shifts in trades and portfolios, so that has that's
Speaker 6: been helpful. But the strength in equities trading is the
Speaker 6: prime brokerage business. Record quarter at Morgan Stanley. Think about
Speaker 6: hedge funds, you know they've been hitting a new record
Speaker 6: and balances. You know, we'll see when the numbers come
Speaker 6: out shortly if they hit another record. But global equities
Speaker 6: the market cap record high in December, right, so prime
Speaker 6: broke bridge, the trades, the balances are you know, they're
Speaker 6: they're paying the prime brokers on those balances. Goldman Morgan Stanley,
Speaker 6: JP Morgan, the ones that I said had the blow
Speaker 6: out trading, they're the leaders in that business.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 6: We know that a lot of the hedge funds had
Speaker 6: a good quarter. So to your point when you're talking
Speaker 6: about the election, especially some of the macro bets paying off,
Speaker 6: that really helped the hedge funds, help the prime brokerage.
Speaker 2: Which is just in stark contrast to like the P
Speaker 2: and C and US Bank Corp numbers that we got
Speaker 2: out today, right Like they're you know, large regional banks
Speaker 2: and their net interest income growth was a bit muted
Speaker 2: on that loan demand. So if you strip out all
Speaker 2: that trading that you guys are talking about, how are.
Speaker 6: Things and that really I mean the capital markets, I
Speaker 6: mean for the big banks that I cover, the capital
Speaker 6: markets momentum has really been the we talked about trading
Speaker 6: banking fees. We didn't talk about wealth and asset management.
Speaker 6: Right Again, businesses that are helped by high asset values
Speaker 6: flows really strong at these companies. So the you know,
Speaker 6: the regional banks of the world, they really are focused
Speaker 6: on that, you know, the net interest income and the
Speaker 6: credit so that that solid credit is helpful for them,
Speaker 6: and the net interest environment and that interesting income environment
Speaker 6: should be helpful to them. But you know, they're not
Speaker 6: as strong in products like credit cards, so JP Morgan
Speaker 6: City Group back America even whilst vargo growing in that business, right,
Speaker 6: so they their net interest margin is benefiting from that
Speaker 6: loan growth. That's the area where we've seen loan growth.
Speaker 6: Commercial loan growth is something that we expect is improving.
Speaker 6: We're getting the benefit to credit of the lower rates,
Speaker 6: right because in commercial real estate they can refinance, et cetera.
Speaker 6: But but yeah, not seeing that blowout those blowout numbers
Speaker 6: like we're seeing the last thing, you know, you brought
Speaker 6: up the election you know, the left regulation that's Keith
Speaker 6: positive and again that's more skewed to these big bangs,
Speaker 6: right that had bigger Capital Worlds coming twenty billion buy
Speaker 6: back announced by City Group investors really getting more focused
Speaker 6: on that part of the story as well.
Speaker 2: Green, she said it green, and it kind of goes
Speaker 2: all around that, all right, Alison, thanks a lot. Alison
Speaker 2: Williams of Bloomberg Intelligence. She covers you wes banks and
Speaker 2: asset managers for us. She covers all that good stuff.
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