WEBVTT - Israel Accuses Hamas of Putting Ceasefire Deal at Risk 

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<v Speaker 2>Alex Steel here alongside Mike Reagan Wolswheeny is off today.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the

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<v Speaker 2>reporters all across the globe to really delve into the

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<v Speaker 2>key stories of our time. And for that we go

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<v Speaker 2>to Ethan Broner, Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief, and he

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<v Speaker 2>joins us. Now, where are these ceasefire talks at the moment?

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<v Speaker 2>The reports are coming in fast and furious, Ethan, of

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<v Speaker 2>issues that keep bubbling up.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Alex, if we could answer that question, it's a

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<v Speaker 3>great question. Look, we don't know. For at least a

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<v Speaker 3>dozen hours. The Israelis have been saying that what the

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<v Speaker 3>so called finished deal was suddenly reopened, that Hamas was

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<v Speaker 3>insisting on certain aspects of demands with regard to which

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<v Speaker 3>prisoners would be released that Israel had not agreed to

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<v Speaker 3>that was not part of the original deal. And they're

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<v Speaker 3>still saying that. The senior officials justin a half an

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<v Speaker 3>hour ago issued a similar statement that Haramas is making

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<v Speaker 3>demands that Israel will never meet and therefore, so far

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<v Speaker 3>there's no cabinet called to approve this deal and the

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<v Speaker 3>deal is on hold.

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<v Speaker 4>I wonder if you could describe to us what it's

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<v Speaker 4>like on the ground there as this process unfolds. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>is there actually peace and quiet right now or is

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<v Speaker 4>there still conflict brewing? Is there still fighting going on?

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<v Speaker 3>So there's an enormous amount of fighting going on. Israel

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<v Speaker 3>has stepped up its military activity in Gaza today and

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<v Speaker 3>in fact, at one point Hamas issued a statement saying

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<v Speaker 3>that one of the female hostages that they're holding that

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<v Speaker 3>where she was being held in a place that had

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<v Speaker 3>been hit by the Israelis. So you know, whether that's

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<v Speaker 3>really true or not, we don't know, but there's there's

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<v Speaker 3>plenty of that going on as well, so it's not

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<v Speaker 3>we're not does not feel like we're on the verge

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<v Speaker 3>of a real deal. If you forced me to guess,

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<v Speaker 3>I would guess that they will solve their problems in

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<v Speaker 3>the Katar and that by tonight or tomorrow there will

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<v Speaker 3>be a cabinet approval of this deal. But I'm really

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<v Speaker 3>not sure.

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<v Speaker 2>What is it like in Benjaminta who's cabinet right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean the cabinet is going to approve the deal.

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<v Speaker 3>He does have too far right cabinet members who are

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<v Speaker 3>vehemently opposed to it, one of whom has said he

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<v Speaker 3>would walk out of the government if it passed, the

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<v Speaker 3>other of whom has said, well, I would give it

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<v Speaker 3>the first six week tranch that we've talked about, and

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<v Speaker 3>if you don't promise to go back to fighting after that,

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<v Speaker 3>then I'll walk. So I think we'll have to see,

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<v Speaker 3>because it maybe depends on what fighting means and you

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<v Speaker 3>know what will happen. But I think for the moment,

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<v Speaker 3>the cabinet is secure if they can solve the problem

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<v Speaker 3>that they say is going on in Katar right now.

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<v Speaker 4>An Ethan, what sort of how do you sort of

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<v Speaker 4>handicap the potential success of this ceasefire deal, do you

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<v Speaker 4>suspect that both sides really will agree to it? I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>we've seen so many times in the past where we

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<v Speaker 4>thought we had accords that that sort of fell through.

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<v Speaker 4>What what do you expect from this one?

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<v Speaker 3>I expect failure, Yeah, and what does failure look like?

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<v Speaker 2>Smiles.

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<v Speaker 3>Failure will mean more of the same. It'll mean that

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<v Speaker 3>the Israel will not remove its troops from Gaza. It

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<v Speaker 3>means that they will continue to be fighting, that the

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<v Speaker 3>hostages will be held. Now, of course, then we'll have

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<v Speaker 3>a new administration in the United States, which in theory

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<v Speaker 3>is more hawkish and or in line with that, and

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<v Speaker 3>we'll have to see what that means in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>what kind of more severe fighting against Hamas is to

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<v Speaker 3>be to expect, but that is my instinct.

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<v Speaker 2>Do we have an idea of what Israel is going

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<v Speaker 2>to be or Benjamin and Yah who will be talking

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<v Speaker 2>to President Trump about come basically Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I mean, I think that the few things that

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<v Speaker 3>the most immediate on their agenda are re stocking Israel's

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<v Speaker 3>weapons and so on in terms of its ability to fight.

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<v Speaker 3>And then the biggest question is what to do about

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<v Speaker 3>Iran and its nuclear program, So I think those are

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<v Speaker 3>the things that are going to preoccupy them.

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<v Speaker 4>Does the hawkishness hawkishness on the part of Trump, do

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<v Speaker 4>you think that will have any impact on how Hamas

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<v Speaker 4>views this whole situation. Could it actually scare them into

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<v Speaker 4>compliance or.

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<v Speaker 3>Do the That was the idea, I mean, that was

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<v Speaker 3>the that was sort of the argument until last night,

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<v Speaker 3>and it may still. I think that Hamas is in

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<v Speaker 3>a much more vulnerable position than it was six months ago,

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<v Speaker 3>not just because of President Trump, but because of having

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<v Speaker 3>lost its leaders and the fact that his BELA is

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<v Speaker 3>no longer able to help it. The Syrian regime has collapsed,

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<v Speaker 3>and that Iran is stripped of a lot of its

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<v Speaker 3>air defense systems, so it's alone. It doesn't have the

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<v Speaker 3>support system that thought it would have, so in theory,

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<v Speaker 3>it got more involved with negotiating this deal. But you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it's also you know, a fairly extremist organization that in

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<v Speaker 3>theory is not afraid of death, and so it's very

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<v Speaker 3>hard to know.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, we appreciate all of your insight. Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much. Ethan Browner. He's joining us at Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>Israel Bureau chief.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program

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<v Speaker 1>live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android

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<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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<v Speaker 1>Just say play. Bloomberg eleven thirty got.

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<v Speaker 2>Some economic data today. It looks like we are still

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<v Speaker 2>spending not too shabby for December, and we've got some

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<v Speaker 2>initial jobless claims as well. Luckily Michael McKee, Bloomerg International

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<v Speaker 2>Economics and Policy correspondent, is joining us. What's my takeaway

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<v Speaker 2>from jobless in retail sales?

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<v Speaker 5>Pretty good day.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, Joe Biden's economic victory tour continues. He's getting

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<v Speaker 5>good data as he prepares to leave office. The retail

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<v Speaker 5>sales numbers disappointing on the headline, but that was largely

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<v Speaker 5>due to things that don't go into the GDP number.

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<v Speaker 5>We like to look at the retail sales control group,

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<v Speaker 5>which is the stuff that actually gets counted in GDP,

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<v Speaker 5>and that was up seven tenths, which is a lot

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<v Speaker 5>more than last month four tenth and a lot more

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<v Speaker 5>than the four tenth that was forecast. So that was

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<v Speaker 5>the good news. The jobless claims figures were up, but

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<v Speaker 5>that was largely in part because of bad weather in

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<v Speaker 5>the Midwest, but also in part because of the California fires.

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<v Speaker 5>It appears California jobless claims what more than thirteen thousand

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<v Speaker 5>during the week. That's unadjusted, so it'll show up as

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<v Speaker 5>one of the biggest movers next week. But when you

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<v Speaker 5>look down into the numbers, you can see that this

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<v Speaker 5>is already having an impact, and I think that's going

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<v Speaker 5>to be a continuing story. We're going to be looking

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<v Speaker 5>at most of the data to see what the California effect,

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<v Speaker 5>the Los Angeles effect is.

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<v Speaker 4>Like, I feel like there have been so many predictions

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<v Speaker 4>of doom and gloom for the consumer with higher inflation,

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<v Speaker 4>higher interest rates. Is it surprising to you to see

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<v Speaker 4>this much resilience or is it just a matter of, Hey,

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<v Speaker 4>the job market remains strong. Of course, consumers are going

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<v Speaker 4>to continue to spend.

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<v Speaker 5>That is the case. I am a little surprised in

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<v Speaker 5>the sense that Americans got very used to low interest

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<v Speaker 5>rates and got very used to discount pricing all the

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<v Speaker 5>time during the two twenty tens, and so the fact

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<v Speaker 5>that they're willing to overlook where interest rates are now

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<v Speaker 5>is kind of interesting now that people at the lower

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<v Speaker 5>ends of the economic spectrum are struggling now at least

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<v Speaker 5>inflation has come down, but they don't have the money

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<v Speaker 5>that other people do, so this is driven more by

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<v Speaker 5>the upper middle and upper classes. But it's still kind

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<v Speaker 5>of interesting given that we've sort of flipped from the

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<v Speaker 5>old normal to the new normal and back to the

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<v Speaker 5>old normal.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>I think one of the wildest headlines I saw the

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<v Speaker 4>morning was surprisingly strong sales of Cartier jewelry, So I

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<v Speaker 4>guess that speaks to that high end.

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<v Speaker 5>I guess you talk Alex about that in no way whatsoever.

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<v Speaker 2>Tom Kum is just expounding on that, but to the

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<v Speaker 2>point that the high end consumer still do particularly.

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<v Speaker 5>No, we've seen that, and there was a story today

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<v Speaker 5>on how European luxury brands are all launching new products

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<v Speaker 5>and doing well even though the economy in Europe is

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<v Speaker 5>much worse than ours in.

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<v Speaker 2>China's still a little bit TVD on that as well.

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<v Speaker 6>What's the next set up? What you care about?

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<v Speaker 2>Give me the NERD.

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<v Speaker 5>PCE is going to be the one that people care

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<v Speaker 5>about because it will influence the FAED, although it's not

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<v Speaker 5>going to have any influence on this month, but it

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<v Speaker 5>could come in about as forecast. Yesterday we were thinking

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<v Speaker 5>of come in a little light, but then international airfares

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<v Speaker 5>came in high in the month of December, so that

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<v Speaker 5>might push it up. But at this point we're all

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<v Speaker 5>kind of looking to March, and the data point for

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<v Speaker 5>March comes in on Monday.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, speaking of Chris Waller is on CNBC right now

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<v Speaker 2>and he's saying that he doesn't think March can be

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<v Speaker 2>ruled out for a.

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<v Speaker 5>Rate cut, So to give the devil there, we could

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<v Speaker 5>get strong enough growth and it's just going to depend

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<v Speaker 5>on how the markets react to whatever Belald Trump does.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Mike, thanks a lot. Mike McKee, Bloomerg International

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<v Speaker 2>Economics and Policy Correspondent.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am on Apple, Cockley and Android Otto

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0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.000
<v Speaker 1>get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.400
<v Speaker 2>So the other side of the coin is what's happening

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<v Speaker 2>with big banks. I mean, these numbers were just tremendous.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got all of them in Bank of America Morgan

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<v Speaker 2>Stanley today. I mean Morgan Stanley profit doubling as the

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<v Speaker 2>company takes some big stock trading beats. Here, let's get

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<v Speaker 2>more on this with Allison and Williams. She's a Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Intelligence senior analyst for global banks and asset managers. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>what's my word to describe the big banks over the

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<v Speaker 2>last forty eight hours? Green green, Okay, meaning they're making a.

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<v Speaker 6>Bowl, not green, climate friendly. That's that's the whole other story.

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<v Speaker 6>But I would say, you know, I mean, first of all,

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<v Speaker 6>the trading members, wow, especially for the leaders. You know,

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<v Speaker 6>Morgan Stanley really coming with that fifty percent growth and

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<v Speaker 6>equities trading, but you know, Morgan Stanley, gold and JP

0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:01.920
<v Speaker 6>Morgan really strength. I mean big Bag also had good numbers,

0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:05.760
<v Speaker 6>but especially strong there. The banking fee recovery is what

0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.080
<v Speaker 6>people are focusing on, you know, not as strong, but

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<v Speaker 6>really positive comments around the pipeline. Morgan Stanley's saying today

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<v Speaker 6>IPO pipeline like best in several years, or to that effect.

0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.680
<v Speaker 6>Golden Sachs also talking about strength and the equities pipeline

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<v Speaker 6>and the fees there really strong. Deaf fees actually disappointing

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<v Speaker 6>a little bit, but they've been so they've been sort

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<v Speaker 6>of carrying the ball for the banking business for a while,

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<v Speaker 6>so IPO fees. I think really the strength and the

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<v Speaker 6>banking pipelines trading good. But at the core for the

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<v Speaker 6>banks is better net interest income, better net interest income

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<v Speaker 6>in the quarter, better net interest income guidance, a cost

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<v Speaker 6>guidance better than feared. For Wells Fargo and City Group

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<v Speaker 6>in particular. That's a key positive back of America talking

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<v Speaker 6>about operating leverage and credit credit solid. We haven't talked

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<v Speaker 6>a lot about credit and generally that's a good sign

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<v Speaker 6>signed that things are good that there's not much talk about.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Also, I wonder if those high trading revenues is that

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<v Speaker 4>something typically we see around presidential election. I mean that

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<v Speaker 4>I'm assuming that creates a lot of volume that is

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<v Speaker 4>sort of not indicative of what the rest of the

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:13.679
<v Speaker 4>year is like.

0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:18.240
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think, I mean especially for you know, this election, right,

0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:21.800
<v Speaker 6>so anything that is driving people to reposition their portfolios.

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.240
<v Speaker 6>So the volatility numbers, if you look at headline volatility,

0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:29.760
<v Speaker 6>it's probably not you know, especially for last year, the

0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:32.400
<v Speaker 6>numbers have been kind of disappointing. But I think just

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:34.439
<v Speaker 6>the fact that underneath the service there are a lot

0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 6>of shifts in trades and portfolios, so that has that's

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.480
<v Speaker 6>been helpful. But the strength in equities trading is the

0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:46.920
<v Speaker 6>prime brokerage business. Record quarter at Morgan Stanley. Think about

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.200
<v Speaker 6>hedge funds, you know they've been hitting a new record

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 6>and balances. You know, we'll see when the numbers come

0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 6>out shortly if they hit another record. But global equities

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 6>the market cap record high in December, right, so prime

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:04.680
<v Speaker 6>broke bridge, the trades, the balances are you know, they're

0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:11.199
<v Speaker 6>they're paying the prime brokers on those balances. Goldman Morgan Stanley,

0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.320
<v Speaker 6>JP Morgan, the ones that I said had the blow

0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.200
<v Speaker 6>out trading, they're the leaders in that business.

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:15.520
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:19.600
<v Speaker 6>We know that a lot of the hedge funds had

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:21.280
<v Speaker 6>a good quarter. So to your point when you're talking

0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 6>about the election, especially some of the macro bets paying off,

0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 6>that really helped the hedge funds, help the prime brokerage.

0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:30.840
<v Speaker 2>Which is just in stark contrast to like the P

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.040
<v Speaker 2>and C and US Bank Corp numbers that we got

0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:36.439
<v Speaker 2>out today, right Like they're you know, large regional banks

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:40.440
<v Speaker 2>and their net interest income growth was a bit muted

0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:43.080
<v Speaker 2>on that loan demand. So if you strip out all

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.960
<v Speaker 2>that trading that you guys are talking about, how are.

0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 6>Things and that really I mean the capital markets, I

0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:50.440
<v Speaker 6>mean for the big banks that I cover, the capital

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 6>markets momentum has really been the we talked about trading

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.640
<v Speaker 6>banking fees. We didn't talk about wealth and asset management.

0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 6>Right Again, businesses that are helped by high asset values

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:04.360
<v Speaker 6>flows really strong at these companies. So the you know,

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.080
<v Speaker 6>the regional banks of the world, they really are focused

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 6>on that, you know, the net interest income and the

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 6>credit so that that solid credit is helpful for them,

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 6>and the net interest environment and that interesting income environment

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 6>should be helpful to them. But you know, they're not

0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 6>as strong in products like credit cards, so JP Morgan

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 6>City Group back America even whilst vargo growing in that business, right,

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:33.160
<v Speaker 6>so they their net interest margin is benefiting from that

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 6>loan growth. That's the area where we've seen loan growth.

0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 6>Commercial loan growth is something that we expect is improving.

0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 6>We're getting the benefit to credit of the lower rates,

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:48.320
<v Speaker 6>right because in commercial real estate they can refinance, et cetera.

0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.760
<v Speaker 6>But but yeah, not seeing that blowout those blowout numbers

0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 6>like we're seeing the last thing, you know, you brought

0:14:55.200 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 6>up the election you know, the left regulation that's Keith

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 6>positive and again that's more skewed to these big bangs,

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 6>right that had bigger Capital Worlds coming twenty billion buy

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 6>back announced by City Group investors really getting more focused

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:14.680
<v Speaker 6>on that part of the story as well.

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:16.720
<v Speaker 2>Green, she said it green, and it kind of goes

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 2>all around that, all right, Alison, thanks a lot. Alison

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.320
<v Speaker 2>Williams of Bloomberg Intelligence. She covers you wes banks and

0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 2>asset managers for us. She covers all that good stuff.

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:31.120
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