1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 2: Alex Steel here alongside Mike Reagan Wolswheeny is off today. 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the 8 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 2: top news in business, economics, finance, geopolitics, politics through our 9 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: lens of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. They cover three thousand 10 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 2: companies at one hundred and thirty industries world wide. We 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 2: also make sure that we tap our great team of 12 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: reporters all across the globe to really delve into the 13 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: key stories of our time. And for that we go 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: to Ethan Broner, Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief, and he 15 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: joins us. Now, where are these ceasefire talks at the moment? 16 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 2: The reports are coming in fast and furious, Ethan, of 17 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 2: issues that keep bubbling up. 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: Well, Alex, if we could answer that question, it's a 19 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 3: great question. Look, we don't know. For at least a 20 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 3: dozen hours. The Israelis have been saying that what the 21 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 3: so called finished deal was suddenly reopened, that Hamas was 22 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 3: insisting on certain aspects of demands with regard to which 23 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 3: prisoners would be released that Israel had not agreed to 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 3: that was not part of the original deal. And they're 25 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 3: still saying that. The senior officials justin a half an 26 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 3: hour ago issued a similar statement that Haramas is making 27 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 3: demands that Israel will never meet and therefore, so far 28 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 3: there's no cabinet called to approve this deal and the 29 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: deal is on hold. 30 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 4: I wonder if you could describe to us what it's 31 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 4: like on the ground there as this process unfolds. I mean, 32 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 4: is there actually peace and quiet right now or is 33 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 4: there still conflict brewing? Is there still fighting going on? 34 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 3: So there's an enormous amount of fighting going on. Israel 35 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 3: has stepped up its military activity in Gaza today and 36 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 3: in fact, at one point Hamas issued a statement saying 37 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 3: that one of the female hostages that they're holding that 38 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 3: where she was being held in a place that had 39 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 3: been hit by the Israelis. So you know, whether that's 40 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 3: really true or not, we don't know, but there's there's 41 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 3: plenty of that going on as well, so it's not 42 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 3: we're not does not feel like we're on the verge 43 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: of a real deal. If you forced me to guess, 44 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 3: I would guess that they will solve their problems in 45 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 3: the Katar and that by tonight or tomorrow there will 46 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 3: be a cabinet approval of this deal. But I'm really 47 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 3: not sure. 48 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 2: What is it like in Benjaminta who's cabinet right now? 49 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: Well, I mean the cabinet is going to approve the deal. 50 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:52,239 Speaker 3: He does have too far right cabinet members who are 51 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 3: vehemently opposed to it, one of whom has said he 52 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 3: would walk out of the government if it passed, the 53 00:02:57,600 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 3: other of whom has said, well, I would give it 54 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 3: the first six week tranch that we've talked about, and 55 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 3: if you don't promise to go back to fighting after that, 56 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 3: then I'll walk. So I think we'll have to see, 57 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 3: because it maybe depends on what fighting means and you 58 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 3: know what will happen. But I think for the moment, 59 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 3: the cabinet is secure if they can solve the problem 60 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 3: that they say is going on in Katar right now. 61 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 4: An Ethan, what sort of how do you sort of 62 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 4: handicap the potential success of this ceasefire deal, do you 63 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 4: suspect that both sides really will agree to it? I mean, 64 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 4: we've seen so many times in the past where we 65 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 4: thought we had accords that that sort of fell through. 66 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 4: What what do you expect from this one? 67 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 3: I expect failure, Yeah, and what does failure look like? 68 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 2: Smiles. 69 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: Failure will mean more of the same. It'll mean that 70 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: the Israel will not remove its troops from Gaza. It 71 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 3: means that they will continue to be fighting, that the 72 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 3: hostages will be held. Now, of course, then we'll have 73 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 3: a new administration in the United States, which in theory 74 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 3: is more hawkish and or in line with that, and 75 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 3: we'll have to see what that means in terms of 76 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 3: what kind of more severe fighting against Hamas is to 77 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 3: be to expect, but that is my instinct. 78 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 2: Do we have an idea of what Israel is going 79 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,119 Speaker 2: to be or Benjamin and Yah who will be talking 80 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 2: to President Trump about come basically Tuesday. 81 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 3: Look, I mean, I think that the few things that 82 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 3: the most immediate on their agenda are re stocking Israel's 83 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 3: weapons and so on in terms of its ability to fight. 84 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 3: And then the biggest question is what to do about 85 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 3: Iran and its nuclear program, So I think those are 86 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 3: the things that are going to preoccupy them. 87 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 4: Does the hawkishness hawkishness on the part of Trump, do 88 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 4: you think that will have any impact on how Hamas 89 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 4: views this whole situation. Could it actually scare them into 90 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: compliance or. 91 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 3: Do the That was the idea, I mean, that was 92 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 3: the that was sort of the argument until last night, 93 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 3: and it may still. I think that Hamas is in 94 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 3: a much more vulnerable position than it was six months ago, 95 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: not just because of President Trump, but because of having 96 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 3: lost its leaders and the fact that his BELA is 97 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 3: no longer able to help it. The Syrian regime has collapsed, 98 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 3: and that Iran is stripped of a lot of its 99 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 3: air defense systems, so it's alone. It doesn't have the 100 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: support system that thought it would have, so in theory, 101 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 3: it got more involved with negotiating this deal. But you know, 102 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 3: it's also you know, a fairly extremist organization that in 103 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 3: theory is not afraid of death, and so it's very 104 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: hard to know. 105 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 2: All right, Well, we appreciate all of your insight. Thank 106 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 2: you so much. Ethan Browner. He's joining us at Bloomberg's 107 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 2: Israel Bureau chief. 108 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program 109 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:52,239 Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android 110 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 111 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 112 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: Just say play. Bloomberg eleven thirty got. 113 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: Some economic data today. It looks like we are still 114 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 2: spending not too shabby for December, and we've got some 115 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: initial jobless claims as well. Luckily Michael McKee, Bloomerg International 116 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 2: Economics and Policy correspondent, is joining us. What's my takeaway 117 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 2: from jobless in retail sales? 118 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 5: Pretty good day. 119 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 3: Okay. 120 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:24,559 Speaker 5: You know, Joe Biden's economic victory tour continues. He's getting 121 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 5: good data as he prepares to leave office. The retail 122 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 5: sales numbers disappointing on the headline, but that was largely 123 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 5: due to things that don't go into the GDP number. 124 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 5: We like to look at the retail sales control group, 125 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 5: which is the stuff that actually gets counted in GDP, 126 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 5: and that was up seven tenths, which is a lot 127 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 5: more than last month four tenth and a lot more 128 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 5: than the four tenth that was forecast. So that was 129 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 5: the good news. The jobless claims figures were up, but 130 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 5: that was largely in part because of bad weather in 131 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 5: the Midwest, but also in part because of the California fires. 132 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 5: It appears California jobless claims what more than thirteen thousand 133 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 5: during the week. That's unadjusted, so it'll show up as 134 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 5: one of the biggest movers next week. But when you 135 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 5: look down into the numbers, you can see that this 136 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 5: is already having an impact, and I think that's going 137 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 5: to be a continuing story. We're going to be looking 138 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 5: at most of the data to see what the California effect, 139 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 5: the Los Angeles effect is. 140 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 4: Like, I feel like there have been so many predictions 141 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 4: of doom and gloom for the consumer with higher inflation, 142 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 4: higher interest rates. Is it surprising to you to see 143 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 4: this much resilience or is it just a matter of, Hey, 144 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 4: the job market remains strong. Of course, consumers are going 145 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 4: to continue to spend. 146 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 5: That is the case. I am a little surprised in 147 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 5: the sense that Americans got very used to low interest 148 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 5: rates and got very used to discount pricing all the 149 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 5: time during the two twenty tens, and so the fact 150 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 5: that they're willing to overlook where interest rates are now 151 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 5: is kind of interesting now that people at the lower 152 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 5: ends of the economic spectrum are struggling now at least 153 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 5: inflation has come down, but they don't have the money 154 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 5: that other people do, so this is driven more by 155 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 5: the upper middle and upper classes. But it's still kind 156 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 5: of interesting given that we've sort of flipped from the 157 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 5: old normal to the new normal and back to the 158 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 5: old normal. 159 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. 160 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 4: I think one of the wildest headlines I saw the 161 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 4: morning was surprisingly strong sales of Cartier jewelry, So I 162 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 4: guess that speaks to that high end. 163 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 5: I guess you talk Alex about that in no way whatsoever. 164 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 2: Tom Kum is just expounding on that, but to the 165 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,559 Speaker 2: point that the high end consumer still do particularly. 166 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 5: No, we've seen that, and there was a story today 167 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 5: on how European luxury brands are all launching new products 168 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 5: and doing well even though the economy in Europe is 169 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 5: much worse than ours in. 170 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 2: China's still a little bit TVD on that as well. 171 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 6: What's the next set up? What you care about? 172 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 2: Give me the NERD. 173 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 5: PCE is going to be the one that people care 174 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 5: about because it will influence the FAED, although it's not 175 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 5: going to have any influence on this month, but it 176 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 5: could come in about as forecast. Yesterday we were thinking 177 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 5: of come in a little light, but then international airfares 178 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 5: came in high in the month of December, so that 179 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 5: might push it up. But at this point we're all 180 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 5: kind of looking to March, and the data point for 181 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 5: March comes in on Monday. 182 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 2: Well, speaking of Chris Waller is on CNBC right now 183 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 2: and he's saying that he doesn't think March can be 184 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 2: ruled out for a. 185 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 5: Rate cut, So to give the devil there, we could 186 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 5: get strong enough growth and it's just going to depend 187 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 5: on how the markets react to whatever Belald Trump does. 188 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 2: All right, Mike, thanks a lot. Mike McKee, Bloomerg International 189 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 2: Economics and Policy Correspondent. 190 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 191 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am on Apple, Cockley and Android Otto 192 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 193 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 194 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 2: So the other side of the coin is what's happening 195 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 2: with big banks. I mean, these numbers were just tremendous. 196 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 2: We've got all of them in Bank of America Morgan 197 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 2: Stanley today. I mean Morgan Stanley profit doubling as the 198 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 2: company takes some big stock trading beats. Here, let's get 199 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 2: more on this with Allison and Williams. She's a Bloomberg 200 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 2: Intelligence senior analyst for global banks and asset managers. Okay, 201 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 2: what's my word to describe the big banks over the 202 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 2: last forty eight hours? Green green, Okay, meaning they're making a. 203 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 6: Bowl, not green, climate friendly. That's that's the whole other story. 204 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 6: But I would say, you know, I mean, first of all, 205 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 6: the trading members, wow, especially for the leaders. You know, 206 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 6: Morgan Stanley really coming with that fifty percent growth and 207 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 6: equities trading, but you know, Morgan Stanley, gold and JP 208 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 6: Morgan really strength. I mean big Bag also had good numbers, 209 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 6: but especially strong there. The banking fee recovery is what 210 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 6: people are focusing on, you know, not as strong, but 211 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 6: really positive comments around the pipeline. Morgan Stanley's saying today 212 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 6: IPO pipeline like best in several years, or to that effect. 213 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 6: Golden Sachs also talking about strength and the equities pipeline 214 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,239 Speaker 6: and the fees there really strong. Deaf fees actually disappointing 215 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 6: a little bit, but they've been so they've been sort 216 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 6: of carrying the ball for the banking business for a while, 217 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 6: so IPO fees. I think really the strength and the 218 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 6: banking pipelines trading good. But at the core for the 219 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 6: banks is better net interest income, better net interest income 220 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 6: in the quarter, better net interest income guidance, a cost 221 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 6: guidance better than feared. For Wells Fargo and City Group 222 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 6: in particular. That's a key positive back of America talking 223 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 6: about operating leverage and credit credit solid. We haven't talked 224 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 6: a lot about credit and generally that's a good sign 225 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 6: signed that things are good that there's not much talk about. 226 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:00,719 Speaker 3: Yeah. 227 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 4: Also, I wonder if those high trading revenues is that 228 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 4: something typically we see around presidential election. I mean that 229 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 4: I'm assuming that creates a lot of volume that is 230 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 4: sort of not indicative of what the rest of the 231 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:13,679 Speaker 4: year is like. 232 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think, I mean especially for you know, this election, right, 233 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 6: so anything that is driving people to reposition their portfolios. 234 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 6: So the volatility numbers, if you look at headline volatility, 235 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 6: it's probably not you know, especially for last year, the 236 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 6: numbers have been kind of disappointing. But I think just 237 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:34,439 Speaker 6: the fact that underneath the service there are a lot 238 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 6: of shifts in trades and portfolios, so that has that's 239 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 6: been helpful. But the strength in equities trading is the 240 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 6: prime brokerage business. Record quarter at Morgan Stanley. Think about 241 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 6: hedge funds, you know they've been hitting a new record 242 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 6: and balances. You know, we'll see when the numbers come 243 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 6: out shortly if they hit another record. But global equities 244 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 6: the market cap record high in December, right, so prime 245 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 6: broke bridge, the trades, the balances are you know, they're 246 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 6: they're paying the prime brokers on those balances. Goldman Morgan Stanley, 247 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 6: JP Morgan, the ones that I said had the blow 248 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 6: out trading, they're the leaders in that business. 249 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 5: Right. 250 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 6: We know that a lot of the hedge funds had 251 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 6: a good quarter. So to your point when you're talking 252 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 6: about the election, especially some of the macro bets paying off, 253 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 6: that really helped the hedge funds, help the prime brokerage. 254 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 2: Which is just in stark contrast to like the P 255 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 2: and C and US Bank Corp numbers that we got 256 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,439 Speaker 2: out today, right Like they're you know, large regional banks 257 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 2: and their net interest income growth was a bit muted 258 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 2: on that loan demand. So if you strip out all 259 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 2: that trading that you guys are talking about, how are. 260 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 6: Things and that really I mean the capital markets, I 261 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 6: mean for the big banks that I cover, the capital 262 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 6: markets momentum has really been the we talked about trading 263 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 6: banking fees. We didn't talk about wealth and asset management. 264 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 6: Right Again, businesses that are helped by high asset values 265 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 6: flows really strong at these companies. So the you know, 266 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 6: the regional banks of the world, they really are focused 267 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 6: on that, you know, the net interest income and the 268 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 6: credit so that that solid credit is helpful for them, 269 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 6: and the net interest environment and that interesting income environment 270 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 6: should be helpful to them. But you know, they're not 271 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 6: as strong in products like credit cards, so JP Morgan 272 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 6: City Group back America even whilst vargo growing in that business, right, 273 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 6: so they their net interest margin is benefiting from that 274 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 6: loan growth. That's the area where we've seen loan growth. 275 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 6: Commercial loan growth is something that we expect is improving. 276 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 6: We're getting the benefit to credit of the lower rates, 277 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 6: right because in commercial real estate they can refinance, et cetera. 278 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 6: But but yeah, not seeing that blowout those blowout numbers 279 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 6: like we're seeing the last thing, you know, you brought 280 00:14:55,200 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 6: up the election you know, the left regulation that's Keith 281 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 6: positive and again that's more skewed to these big bangs, 282 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 6: right that had bigger Capital Worlds coming twenty billion buy 283 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 6: back announced by City Group investors really getting more focused 284 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 6: on that part of the story as well. 285 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 2: Green, she said it green, and it kind of goes 286 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 2: all around that, all right, Alison, thanks a lot. Alison 287 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 2: Williams of Bloomberg Intelligence. She covers you wes banks and 288 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 2: asset managers for us. She covers all that good stuff. 289 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 290 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 291 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 292 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 293 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 294 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.