WEBVTT - Where US-Russia Talks Leave Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>On Monday, President Trump's Special Envoy for Peace Missions, Steve Witkoff,

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<v Speaker 2>headed to Moscow. He's expected to meet with Russian President

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<v Speaker 2>Vladimir Putin to present the latest proposal for a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 2>and peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. The plan is

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<v Speaker 2>amended from an initial twenty eight point plan the US

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<v Speaker 2>and Russia developed. On Monday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski said

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<v Speaker 2>the new plan looks better.

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<v Speaker 1>What we do know is that the US has been

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<v Speaker 1>trying to run different scenarios past each side.

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<v Speaker 2>Nick Wadams leads Bloomberg's national security coverage from Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 1>There are still so many unknowns and so many questions

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<v Speaker 1>about whether Ukraine's apparent support for the latest agreement is

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<v Speaker 1>just a negotiating strategy trying to put the ball back

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine's court. At this point, we really actually have

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<v Speaker 1>no good sense of whether we are any closer to

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<v Speaker 1>a deal than we were about two weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Monday unfolded like a split screen as Witcoff journeyed to Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>Zelenski was in France meeting with President Emmanuel Macron to

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<v Speaker 2>rally European allies.

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<v Speaker 1>The big question is going to be, you know, where

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<v Speaker 1>does Trump land in this perpetual ping ponging between having

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<v Speaker 1>Zelenski's back and then shunning Zelenski, being more favorable to

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin or getting tough on Vladimir Putin.

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<v Speaker 2>And that leads to the biggest question, will any of

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<v Speaker 2>this flurry of activity bring about the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>nearly four year old war between Russia and Ukraine. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>News Today on the show the state of play between

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<v Speaker 2>Russia and Ukraine, the developments of the last few days,

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<v Speaker 2>and whether an end to the war could be in sight.

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<v Speaker 2>Nick Wadhams has covered the relationships between the US, Russia,

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<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine for Bloomberg for years, including during President Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>first term before Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty two. He's seen firsthand how Ukraine or Russia

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<v Speaker 2>has had the upper hand in different moments. I asked

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<v Speaker 2>Nick to lay the groundwork for me as US Envoy

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<v Speaker 2>Steve Witkoff travels to Moscow and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky

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<v Speaker 2>appeals to European allies. Where do things stand? Who has

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<v Speaker 2>more leverage right now?

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<v Speaker 1>What we know right now is that at least on

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<v Speaker 1>the battlefield, Russia has the upper hand. This is a

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<v Speaker 1>situation that the longer it goes on, the more it

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<v Speaker 1>plays to Russia's advantage, both than terms of manpower and

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<v Speaker 1>military power and current trend lines. The Russians have been

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<v Speaker 1>making slow and very costly progress against Ukrainian forces, but

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<v Speaker 1>they have been making progress. Ukraine is an increasingly in

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<v Speaker 1>an untenable position in terms of the strikes that it's

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<v Speaker 1>been enduring, the strain on its electricity grid, the size

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<v Speaker 1>of its army, and its ability to recruit new troops.

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<v Speaker 1>Russia is just a bigger country with a bigger economy

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<v Speaker 1>and a better ability to keep this going.

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<v Speaker 2>Steve Witkoff heading the Moscow with Jared Kushner, the President's

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<v Speaker 2>son in law. What has the administration said about what

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<v Speaker 2>they're hoping to accomplish in Moscow this week?

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<v Speaker 1>So what we know is that we had that initial

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight point plan that was apparently worked out between

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<v Speaker 1>the US and Russia. Then that put the ball in

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine's court. So we've had successive meetings between Marco Rubio

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<v Speaker 1>and Ukrainian officials, first in Geneva and then in the

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<v Speaker 1>last few days in Florida, where they've been hashing out

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<v Speaker 1>some of Ukraine's objections to the initial elements of that

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight point plan. Now, at least if you hear

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<v Speaker 1>what the US and Ukraine are saying, they've gotten to

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<v Speaker 1>a point where the US and Ukraine are in broad

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<v Speaker 1>agreement about the current contours of the nineteen point plant

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<v Speaker 1>reduced from twenty eight points. Now Stwidkov is taking that

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<v Speaker 1>back to Moscow. I should say, though, that we really

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<v Speaker 1>don't have any indication that the two sides are any

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<v Speaker 1>closer to bridging what is essentially their fundamental difference, which

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<v Speaker 1>is that Russia basically wants Ukraine to be a rump state.

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<v Speaker 1>They want capsizing the size of Ukraine's military, They want

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine to essentially declare neutrality. They want NATO membership to

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<v Speaker 1>be completely off the books. They want to take land

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<v Speaker 1>that they occupied as part of their invasion, and also

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<v Speaker 1>they want Ukraine to see land that it still occupies,

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<v Speaker 1>and Ukraine has said that is an absolute red line.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no way it's going to be willing to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>As a sovereign nation. It wants the ability to determine

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<v Speaker 1>its own future, and it doesn't want to have to

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<v Speaker 1>see land that Russia captured in its vision. So we

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<v Speaker 1>really don't have any indication that the two sides have

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<v Speaker 1>been able to bridge those gaps. In fact, everything we

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<v Speaker 1>have heard is that Ukraine is just saying, no, We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to punt those thorny decisions to a late date. Nick.

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<v Speaker 2>We learned through a phone call, the transcript of which

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg published, that Steve Whitcoff has been coaching his Russian

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<v Speaker 2>counterpart on how to make his case to President Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>What did we learn from it about the relationship between

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<v Speaker 2>the US and Russia as it stands today.

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<v Speaker 1>It was an extraordinary transcript, not only for its level

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<v Speaker 1>of detail, but for the attitudes that the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 1>seems to be taking. I mean, normally, when you would

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<v Speaker 1>have a negotiation of this contour, of this shape, the

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<v Speaker 1>US would not take such an accommodating stance toward an adversary.

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<v Speaker 1>They would essentially say, Okay, here are red lines. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're going to come at us with this particular

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<v Speaker 1>negotiating demand, I'm just going to tell you, right now

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<v Speaker 1>that is absolutely not going to fly. You would have

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<v Speaker 1>a much more stand offish attitude by the US side

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<v Speaker 1>because you are dealing essentially with an adversary and one

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<v Speaker 1>that has been an adversary for many years. But what

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<v Speaker 1>you see in those in that call is essentially Steve

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<v Speaker 1>Whitcoff taking a much more accommodating stance to Russia, essentially saying,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, you know, he's coaching the Russians on

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<v Speaker 1>how to get onto Trump's good side, and should say,

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<v Speaker 1>of course that when President Trump was asked about this,

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<v Speaker 1>he just said, listen, Steve is a great negotiator, and

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<v Speaker 1>what he's doing in that call is not really any

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<v Speaker 1>different from what I would expect him to do, and

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<v Speaker 1>he's doing a fantastic job. And it does make me

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<v Speaker 1>think of that hot mic moment you had with President

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<v Speaker 1>Barack Obama and the then Russian President Dmitri Medvedyev some

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<v Speaker 1>years ago around twenty twelve, where he essentially said, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>just let me get through the election and then we

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<v Speaker 1>can have a conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>My last elections mo. Yeah, and after my election, I.

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<v Speaker 1>Have more tuxt movies. Part of it is it's pretty

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary to see how this administration takes this much friendlier

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<v Speaker 1>attitude toward Russia. But part of it is also just

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that the conversation has been put out there.

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<v Speaker 1>So many of these conversations from administrations passed on both sides.

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<v Speaker 1>We have no idea what they would have said, and

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<v Speaker 1>you can be sure that you know probably is not

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<v Speaker 1>the first time, and there would have been similar sort

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<v Speaker 1>of approaches by envoys from both parties when dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>Russia in the past.

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<v Speaker 2>Aside from the parts of this plan that deal with territory,

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<v Speaker 2>what are the main tenants of the piece plan that

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<v Speaker 2>is being handled over right now?

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<v Speaker 1>You have Ukraine losing control potentially over this massive nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>power plant in perpetuity. You have Ukraine potentially giving up

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<v Speaker 1>the prospect of NATO membership, and also a cap on

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<v Speaker 1>the size of Ukraine's military The original twenty eight point

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<v Speaker 1>plan put that number at six hundred thousand. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>just this extraordinary situation where you would have these countries

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<v Speaker 1>essentially telling Ukraine in a pretty unprecedented way you are

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be allowed to make sovereign choices for

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<v Speaker 1>yourself in the future. So NATO membership being a perfect example,

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<v Speaker 1>it asks that Ukraine put in its constitution the commitment

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<v Speaker 1>never to see NATO membership. Of course, that could be

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<v Speaker 1>changed later. But the interesting part of this plan too

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<v Speaker 1>is the sort of economic web that it seeks to spin,

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<v Speaker 1>which would be not only the US Ukraine economic partnership,

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<v Speaker 1>but a US Russian economic partnership that would be unlike

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<v Speaker 1>anything we've ever seen, where there would essentially be US

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<v Speaker 1>involvement in Russia's oil sector, in tapping and extracting natural resources.

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<v Speaker 1>So it seeks to appeal very much to Trump's businessman

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<v Speaker 1>part of the deal instincts, So that's something that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of escaped a lot of notice. Much of it has

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<v Speaker 1>been on the limits to Ukraine. But what we're also

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<v Speaker 1>seeing is this sort of incentivized structure where the US

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<v Speaker 1>would really benefit from this piece deal and seek to

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<v Speaker 1>develop a much deeper and broader economic partnership with Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>which also would mean, by the way, of course, that

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<v Speaker 1>you would have all the lifting of the sanctions against Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>which would benefit Vlaimir Putin enormously.

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<v Speaker 2>What Ukraine wants to make happen and the maneuver it's

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<v Speaker 2>doing this week after the break as US led negotiations

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<v Speaker 2>have gained steam. Another development in Ukraine has picked up speed.

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<v Speaker 2>There's been an ongoing investigation into an embezzlement scandal that's

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<v Speaker 2>rocked President Zelenski's government. I wanted to unpack what Zelenski

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<v Speaker 2>is attempting to do to rally European allies and what

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<v Speaker 2>he's dealing with on the home front with editor Nick

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<v Speaker 2>watams Nick. Because all of this has been playing out,

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine's President Volombia Zelensky has been trying to rally the

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<v Speaker 2>support of European allies. He was in Paris on Monday

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<v Speaker 2>meeting with Emmanuel Macron. What specifically is he hoping to

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<v Speaker 2>get from them? What kind of support at this moment?

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<v Speaker 2>One is military support. So what President Trump had done

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<v Speaker 2>in recent months was say, listen, we're not going to

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<v Speaker 2>give Ukraine weapons and material and our ammunition the way

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<v Speaker 2>that the Biden administration did. But what we will do

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<v Speaker 2>is allow Europe to buy those weapons and then give

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<v Speaker 2>them to Ukraine. So he really wants Europe to step

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<v Speaker 2>up the purchases of weapons and ammunition, especially at this

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<v Speaker 2>critical time for the Ukrainian military. The other thing he

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<v Speaker 2>essentially really wants more than anything is for European countries,

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<v Speaker 2>which they have done to use their leverage with President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump to try to pull him back from the Russian side,

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<v Speaker 2>and basically also what he really wants is for them

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<v Speaker 2>to just slow down the process. You know, Trump wants

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<v Speaker 2>this thing done as quickly as possible. He wants a deal,

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<v Speaker 2>he wants that handshake, and he wants to move on.

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<v Speaker 2>But what you saw from the Europeans almost immediately once

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<v Speaker 2>this twenty eight point plan came out is to say, Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>hold on, let's take some time here, let's think about this,

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<v Speaker 2>let's slow it down, let's do the conversations.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll meet in Geneva. Then we'll go for round two

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<v Speaker 1>and then maybe round three, just to try to bring

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<v Speaker 1>Trump back on side.

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<v Speaker 2>Someone noticeably absent from those toxes andre Yurmak, President Lenski's

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<v Speaker 2>now former chief of staff, who has been by his

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<v Speaker 2>side through the entirety of this war. He resigned after

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<v Speaker 2>being swept up in this wider corruption investigation in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>The how big of deal is it now that as

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine goes through this that he is not party to

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<v Speaker 2>these talks, he's not active in negotiation.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a huge deal because andre Yermak has in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of ways been such an intermediary and a point

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<v Speaker 1>person in the conversations with the United States, so they

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<v Speaker 1>have to sort of reboot a lot of those relations.

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<v Speaker 1>The other thing it's going to do is create this

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<v Speaker 1>sort of sense of suspicion from the Trump administration. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>corruption has been endemic in Ukraine for a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean when I was covering the first Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 1>we were doing a bunch of trips to Ukraine well

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<v Speaker 1>before the invasion, and corruption was always a conversation. How

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<v Speaker 1>are we going to deal with this? How are we

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<v Speaker 1>going to root it out? What do we do? What

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<v Speaker 1>are the incentives, What are the carrots, what are the sticks.

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<v Speaker 1>It's something they just have not been able to solve.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has really pounced on this, and it gives you

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<v Speaker 1>a sense of his thinking. When when there's this corruption

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<v Speaker 1>scandal in Ukraine, Trump sees that as a weakness that

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<v Speaker 1>can be exploited to pressure Ukraine into doing something he

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<v Speaker 1>wants it to do. In other words, to say, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>your position is extremely untenable. You have this corruption problem.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to agree to a deal with Russia now,

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<v Speaker 1>even if it's on terms you don't like. And so

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<v Speaker 1>that really gives you a sense of how he's playing this.

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<v Speaker 1>He sees this as a serious problem for Ukraine that

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<v Speaker 1>can be exploited. So it comes at just such a

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<v Speaker 1>bad time for President Zelenski.

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<v Speaker 2>That twenty eight point piece plan gives us a window

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<v Speaker 2>into what Russia thinks it would take to end this conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>How about for the Ukrainians, what would it take for

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<v Speaker 2>them to declare this over?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think what they want is their freedom back.

0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.880
<v Speaker 1>They don't want to have limits on the size of

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:58.239
<v Speaker 1>their military. They want Russia obviously out of the territory

0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:00.720
<v Speaker 1>that it invaded, both in the least couple of years

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:03.800
<v Speaker 1>but also in the invasion in twenty fourteen. They would

0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 1>love to get Crimea back. I think what you would

0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 1>see them potentially settle for, and this is something that

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.840
<v Speaker 1>is very, very hotly debated, is there would be some

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:17.560
<v Speaker 1>willingness to concede some territory, if not by law then

0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 1>de facto, so not a formal recognition that Russia has

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 1>that land. But you know, there are examples of this

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.200
<v Speaker 1>all around the world where you see these conflicts, whether

0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:29.840
<v Speaker 1>it's between Greece and Turkey or North and South Korea,

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:33.160
<v Speaker 1>or elsewhere, or where you have this land that both

0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:36.439
<v Speaker 1>sides claim but is left in a legal limbo. There

0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.000
<v Speaker 1>is some indication we're seeing that Ukraine would be willing

0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 1>to agree, at least in the short term, to a

0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:47.959
<v Speaker 1>situation where the land was de facto Russian but left

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 1>legally ambiguous.

0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 2>I'll ask you lastly, as the Thrill negotiation takes place,

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 2>what's your sense of how much longer Ukraine can hold

0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.920
<v Speaker 2>out if it decides this piece steal as drafted as

0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:05.360
<v Speaker 2>a non starter, given the predicament that it's in, given

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.160
<v Speaker 2>Russia's ability to prosecute this war, and it's seeming willingness

0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:08.920
<v Speaker 2>to continue doing that.

0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:14.520
<v Speaker 1>What we know from Vladimir Zelenski's own comments on this

0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:16.959
<v Speaker 1>is that it's going to be a very very difficult winter.

0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:21.600
<v Speaker 1>That Ukraine can get through the winter, but looking into

0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 1>next year is going to be really, really difficult. And

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 1>there is this theory of the case. Again, you can

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.920
<v Speaker 1>talk to one hundred analysts and former military officials and

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian officials and American officials and Russian officials and get

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 1>one hundred different predictions about what's going to happen next.

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.760
<v Speaker 1>But one theory out there is that things happen very

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:47.840
<v Speaker 1>very slowly, and then they happen very very quickly. So

0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you have these very incremental, tiny changes where Russia slowly

0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 1>takes little bites out of Ukrainian territory and then something

0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 1>really big happens and they take a whole bunch of

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 1>land all at once. That's why you see Ukraine trying

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.240
<v Speaker 1>to do this thing now of Essentially some of the

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 1>conversations out of Europe is we need to make Ukraine

0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:11.440
<v Speaker 1>like a porcupine, or we need to make it indigestible.

0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.400
<v Speaker 1>So we just want to create the condition so that

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 1>Russia can't swallow it up, or at least swallow up

0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.080
<v Speaker 1>a significant chunk of territory in the east. That is

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 1>really one of the big concerns. I think you would

0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 1>see Europe try to push and step up its purchases

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 1>of materiel, and you will start to see over the

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:34.040
<v Speaker 1>next year to even more defense weapon reproduction going online.

0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 1>But the question is how do you bridge the gap

0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:40.360
<v Speaker 1>between getting through this winter and when that weapon reproduction

0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 1>can get online so that Europe can flood the weapons

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 1>of material to Ukraine.

0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 2>Nick, thank you very much, my pleasure. This is the

0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.200
<v Speaker 2>big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David gurat To get

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.440
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0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:05.200
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0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.520
<v Speaker 2>to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening.

0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:11.600
<v Speaker 1>We'll be back tomorrow