1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:13,200
Speaker 2: On Monday, President Trump's Special Envoy for Peace Missions, Steve Witkoff,

3
00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,560
Speaker 2: headed to Moscow. He's expected to meet with Russian President

4
00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:20,120
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin to present the latest proposal for a ceasefire

5
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,640
Speaker 2: and peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. The plan is

6
00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,319
Speaker 2: amended from an initial twenty eight point plan the US

7
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 2: and Russia developed. On Monday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski said

8
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,000
Speaker 2: the new plan looks better.

9
00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,040
Speaker 1: What we do know is that the US has been

10
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,800
Speaker 1: trying to run different scenarios past each side.

11
00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,800
Speaker 2: Nick Wadams leads Bloomberg's national security coverage from Washington, d C.

12
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,239
Speaker 1: There are still so many unknowns and so many questions

13
00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,239
Speaker 1: about whether Ukraine's apparent support for the latest agreement is

14
00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,880
Speaker 1: just a negotiating strategy trying to put the ball back

15
00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,920
Speaker 1: in Ukraine's court. At this point, we really actually have

16
00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,160
Speaker 1: no good sense of whether we are any closer to

17
00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:01,960
Speaker 1: a deal than we were about two weeks ago.

18
00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,760
Speaker 2: Monday unfolded like a split screen as Witcoff journeyed to Russia.

19
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,399
Speaker 2: Zelenski was in France meeting with President Emmanuel Macron to

20
00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:11,679
Speaker 2: rally European allies.

21
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,280
Speaker 1: The big question is going to be, you know, where

22
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:19,319
Speaker 1: does Trump land in this perpetual ping ponging between having

23
00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:24,320
Speaker 1: Zelenski's back and then shunning Zelenski, being more favorable to

24
00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,920
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin or getting tough on Vladimir Putin.

25
00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,160
Speaker 2: And that leads to the biggest question, will any of

26
00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,080
Speaker 2: this flurry of activity bring about the end of the

27
00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:43,160
Speaker 2: nearly four year old war between Russia and Ukraine. I'm

28
00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:45,280
Speaker 2: David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg

29
00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,080
Speaker 2: News Today on the show the state of play between

30
00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,400
Speaker 2: Russia and Ukraine, the developments of the last few days,

31
00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,960
Speaker 2: and whether an end to the war could be in sight.

32
00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,760
Speaker 2: Nick Wadhams has covered the relationships between the US, Russia,

33
00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,800
Speaker 2: and Ukraine for Bloomberg for years, including during President Trump's

34
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,080
Speaker 2: first term before Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in

35
00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. He's seen firsthand how Ukraine or Russia

36
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,560
Speaker 2: has had the upper hand in different moments. I asked

37
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,200
Speaker 2: Nick to lay the groundwork for me as US Envoy

38
00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,960
Speaker 2: Steve Witkoff travels to Moscow and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky

39
00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,720
Speaker 2: appeals to European allies. Where do things stand? Who has

40
00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:30,880
Speaker 2: more leverage right now?

41
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,680
Speaker 1: What we know right now is that at least on

42
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,080
Speaker 1: the battlefield, Russia has the upper hand. This is a

43
00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,040
Speaker 1: situation that the longer it goes on, the more it

44
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,880
Speaker 1: plays to Russia's advantage, both than terms of manpower and

45
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,880
Speaker 1: military power and current trend lines. The Russians have been

46
00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:53,400
Speaker 1: making slow and very costly progress against Ukrainian forces, but

47
00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,360
Speaker 1: they have been making progress. Ukraine is an increasingly in

48
00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: an untenable position in terms of the strikes that it's

49
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,120
Speaker 1: been enduring, the strain on its electricity grid, the size

50
00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,760
Speaker 1: of its army, and its ability to recruit new troops.

51
00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:10,000
Speaker 1: Russia is just a bigger country with a bigger economy

52
00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,600
Speaker 1: and a better ability to keep this going.

53
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 2: Steve Witkoff heading the Moscow with Jared Kushner, the President's

54
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 2: son in law. What has the administration said about what

55
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,000
Speaker 2: they're hoping to accomplish in Moscow this week?

56
00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,320
Speaker 1: So what we know is that we had that initial

57
00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,240
Speaker 1: twenty eight point plan that was apparently worked out between

58
00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 1: the US and Russia. Then that put the ball in

59
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 1: Ukraine's court. So we've had successive meetings between Marco Rubio

60
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,680
Speaker 1: and Ukrainian officials, first in Geneva and then in the

61
00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 1: last few days in Florida, where they've been hashing out

62
00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:49,160
Speaker 1: some of Ukraine's objections to the initial elements of that

63
00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,760
Speaker 1: twenty eight point plan. Now, at least if you hear

64
00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,560
Speaker 1: what the US and Ukraine are saying, they've gotten to

65
00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,720
Speaker 1: a point where the US and Ukraine are in broad

66
00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,480
Speaker 1: agreement about the current contours of the nineteen point plant

67
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,880
Speaker 1: reduced from twenty eight points. Now Stwidkov is taking that

68
00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,960
Speaker 1: back to Moscow. I should say, though, that we really

69
00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,960
Speaker 1: don't have any indication that the two sides are any

70
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,880
Speaker 1: closer to bridging what is essentially their fundamental difference, which

71
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,599
Speaker 1: is that Russia basically wants Ukraine to be a rump state.

72
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,800
Speaker 1: They want capsizing the size of Ukraine's military, They want

73
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,479
Speaker 1: Ukraine to essentially declare neutrality. They want NATO membership to

74
00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,360
Speaker 1: be completely off the books. They want to take land

75
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,359
Speaker 1: that they occupied as part of their invasion, and also

76
00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,599
Speaker 1: they want Ukraine to see land that it still occupies,

77
00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 1: and Ukraine has said that is an absolute red line.

78
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:41,480
Speaker 1: There's no way it's going to be willing to do that.

79
00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,000
Speaker 1: As a sovereign nation. It wants the ability to determine

80
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:45,680
Speaker 1: its own future, and it doesn't want to have to

81
00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,400
Speaker 1: see land that Russia captured in its vision. So we

82
00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,200
Speaker 1: really don't have any indication that the two sides have

83
00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,400
Speaker 1: been able to bridge those gaps. In fact, everything we

84
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,360
Speaker 1: have heard is that Ukraine is just saying, no, We're

85
00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:01,760
Speaker 1: going to punt those thorny decisions to a late date. Nick.

86
00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,000
Speaker 2: We learned through a phone call, the transcript of which

87
00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,240
Speaker 2: Bloomberg published, that Steve Whitcoff has been coaching his Russian

88
00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,720
Speaker 2: counterpart on how to make his case to President Trump.

89
00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,480
Speaker 2: What did we learn from it about the relationship between

90
00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,480
Speaker 2: the US and Russia as it stands today.

91
00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,800
Speaker 1: It was an extraordinary transcript, not only for its level

92
00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:23,080
Speaker 1: of detail, but for the attitudes that the Trump administration

93
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,800
Speaker 1: seems to be taking. I mean, normally, when you would

94
00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,919
Speaker 1: have a negotiation of this contour, of this shape, the

95
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:33,760
Speaker 1: US would not take such an accommodating stance toward an adversary.

96
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,120
Speaker 1: They would essentially say, Okay, here are red lines. You know,

97
00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,200
Speaker 1: if you're going to come at us with this particular

98
00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 1: negotiating demand, I'm just going to tell you, right now

99
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,240
Speaker 1: that is absolutely not going to fly. You would have

100
00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:47,559
Speaker 1: a much more stand offish attitude by the US side

101
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,400
Speaker 1: because you are dealing essentially with an adversary and one

102
00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,440
Speaker 1: that has been an adversary for many years. But what

103
00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,559
Speaker 1: you see in those in that call is essentially Steve

104
00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:01,440
Speaker 1: Whitcoff taking a much more accommodating stance to Russia, essentially saying,

105
00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,280
Speaker 1: as you say, you know, he's coaching the Russians on

106
00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,920
Speaker 1: how to get onto Trump's good side, and should say,

107
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,720
Speaker 1: of course that when President Trump was asked about this,

108
00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,479
Speaker 1: he just said, listen, Steve is a great negotiator, and

109
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 1: what he's doing in that call is not really any

110
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:19,479
Speaker 1: different from what I would expect him to do, and

111
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,800
Speaker 1: he's doing a fantastic job. And it does make me

112
00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,360
Speaker 1: think of that hot mic moment you had with President

113
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:29,120
Speaker 1: Barack Obama and the then Russian President Dmitri Medvedyev some

114
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,279
Speaker 1: years ago around twenty twelve, where he essentially said, Hey,

115
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,800
Speaker 1: just let me get through the election and then we

116
00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:35,919
Speaker 1: can have a conversation.

117
00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,080
Speaker 2: My last elections mo. Yeah, and after my election, I.

118
00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 1: Have more tuxt movies. Part of it is it's pretty

119
00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,960
Speaker 1: extraordinary to see how this administration takes this much friendlier

120
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,400
Speaker 1: attitude toward Russia. But part of it is also just

121
00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,200
Speaker 1: the fact that the conversation has been put out there.

122
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,640
Speaker 1: So many of these conversations from administrations passed on both sides.

123
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,120
Speaker 1: We have no idea what they would have said, and

124
00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,839
Speaker 1: you can be sure that you know probably is not

125
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,719
Speaker 1: the first time, and there would have been similar sort

126
00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,919
Speaker 1: of approaches by envoys from both parties when dealing with

127
00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:08,880
Speaker 1: Russia in the past.

128
00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,720
Speaker 2: Aside from the parts of this plan that deal with territory,

129
00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:16,680
Speaker 2: what are the main tenants of the piece plan that

130
00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,160
Speaker 2: is being handled over right now?

131
00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:22,440
Speaker 1: You have Ukraine losing control potentially over this massive nuclear

132
00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,600
Speaker 1: power plant in perpetuity. You have Ukraine potentially giving up

133
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,600
Speaker 1: the prospect of NATO membership, and also a cap on

134
00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,320
Speaker 1: the size of Ukraine's military The original twenty eight point

135
00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,080
Speaker 1: plan put that number at six hundred thousand. I mean,

136
00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,960
Speaker 1: just this extraordinary situation where you would have these countries

137
00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:45,080
Speaker 1: essentially telling Ukraine in a pretty unprecedented way you are

138
00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,880
Speaker 1: not going to be allowed to make sovereign choices for

139
00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,280
Speaker 1: yourself in the future. So NATO membership being a perfect example,

140
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:56,120
Speaker 1: it asks that Ukraine put in its constitution the commitment

141
00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,240
Speaker 1: never to see NATO membership. Of course, that could be

142
00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 1: changed later. But the interesting part of this plan too

143
00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,200
Speaker 1: is the sort of economic web that it seeks to spin,

144
00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,800
Speaker 1: which would be not only the US Ukraine economic partnership,

145
00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,160
Speaker 1: but a US Russian economic partnership that would be unlike

146
00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 1: anything we've ever seen, where there would essentially be US

147
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: involvement in Russia's oil sector, in tapping and extracting natural resources.

148
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 1: So it seeks to appeal very much to Trump's businessman

149
00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 1: part of the deal instincts, So that's something that sort

150
00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,079
Speaker 1: of escaped a lot of notice. Much of it has

151
00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,600
Speaker 1: been on the limits to Ukraine. But what we're also

152
00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:38,800
Speaker 1: seeing is this sort of incentivized structure where the US

153
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,199
Speaker 1: would really benefit from this piece deal and seek to

154
00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 1: develop a much deeper and broader economic partnership with Russia,

155
00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:47,880
Speaker 1: which also would mean, by the way, of course, that

156
00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,280
Speaker 1: you would have all the lifting of the sanctions against Russia,

157
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 1: which would benefit Vlaimir Putin enormously.

158
00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,319
Speaker 2: What Ukraine wants to make happen and the maneuver it's

159
00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:11,760
Speaker 2: doing this week after the break as US led negotiations

160
00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,200
Speaker 2: have gained steam. Another development in Ukraine has picked up speed.

161
00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,040
Speaker 2: There's been an ongoing investigation into an embezzlement scandal that's

162
00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:23,000
Speaker 2: rocked President Zelenski's government. I wanted to unpack what Zelenski

163
00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,920
Speaker 2: is attempting to do to rally European allies and what

164
00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,559
Speaker 2: he's dealing with on the home front with editor Nick

165
00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,320
Speaker 2: watams Nick. Because all of this has been playing out,

166
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,800
Speaker 2: Ukraine's President Volombia Zelensky has been trying to rally the

167
00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,280
Speaker 2: support of European allies. He was in Paris on Monday

168
00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,560
Speaker 2: meeting with Emmanuel Macron. What specifically is he hoping to

169
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,839
Speaker 2: get from them? What kind of support at this moment?

170
00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 2: One is military support. So what President Trump had done

171
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,480
Speaker 2: in recent months was say, listen, we're not going to

172
00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 2: give Ukraine weapons and material and our ammunition the way

173
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,440
Speaker 2: that the Biden administration did. But what we will do

174
00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 2: is allow Europe to buy those weapons and then give

175
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,600
Speaker 2: them to Ukraine. So he really wants Europe to step

176
00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,800
Speaker 2: up the purchases of weapons and ammunition, especially at this

177
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,679
Speaker 2: critical time for the Ukrainian military. The other thing he

178
00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,160
Speaker 2: essentially really wants more than anything is for European countries,

179
00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,000
Speaker 2: which they have done to use their leverage with President

180
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,120
Speaker 2: Trump to try to pull him back from the Russian side,

181
00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,160
Speaker 2: and basically also what he really wants is for them

182
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,960
Speaker 2: to just slow down the process. You know, Trump wants

183
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,880
Speaker 2: this thing done as quickly as possible. He wants a deal,

184
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,200
Speaker 2: he wants that handshake, and he wants to move on.

185
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,760
Speaker 2: But what you saw from the Europeans almost immediately once

186
00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,000
Speaker 2: this twenty eight point plan came out is to say, Okay,

187
00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,760
Speaker 2: hold on, let's take some time here, let's think about this,

188
00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,080
Speaker 2: let's slow it down, let's do the conversations.

189
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,160
Speaker 1: We'll meet in Geneva. Then we'll go for round two

190
00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:53,160
Speaker 1: and then maybe round three, just to try to bring

191
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:54,720
Speaker 1: Trump back on side.

192
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,559
Speaker 2: Someone noticeably absent from those toxes andre Yurmak, President Lenski's

193
00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,800
Speaker 2: now former chief of staff, who has been by his

194
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 2: side through the entirety of this war. He resigned after

195
00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,199
Speaker 2: being swept up in this wider corruption investigation in Ukraine.

196
00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:09,800
Speaker 2: The how big of deal is it now that as

197
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,280
Speaker 2: Ukraine goes through this that he is not party to

198
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:13,960
Speaker 2: these talks, he's not active in negotiation.

199
00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,160
Speaker 1: It's a huge deal because andre Yermak has in a

200
00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,680
Speaker 1: lot of ways been such an intermediary and a point

201
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,760
Speaker 1: person in the conversations with the United States, so they

202
00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,800
Speaker 1: have to sort of reboot a lot of those relations.

203
00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 1: The other thing it's going to do is create this

204
00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:33,400
Speaker 1: sort of sense of suspicion from the Trump administration. I mean,

205
00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 1: corruption has been endemic in Ukraine for a long time.

206
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,359
Speaker 1: I mean when I was covering the first Trump administration,

207
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,320
Speaker 1: we were doing a bunch of trips to Ukraine well

208
00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:46,839
Speaker 1: before the invasion, and corruption was always a conversation. How

209
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:48,440
Speaker 1: are we going to deal with this? How are we

210
00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 1: going to root it out? What do we do? What

211
00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,680
Speaker 1: are the incentives, What are the carrots, what are the sticks.

212
00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:54,840
Speaker 1: It's something they just have not been able to solve.

213
00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,200
Speaker 1: Trump has really pounced on this, and it gives you

214
00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:01,440
Speaker 1: a sense of his thinking. When when there's this corruption

215
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,320
Speaker 1: scandal in Ukraine, Trump sees that as a weakness that

216
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:09,080
Speaker 1: can be exploited to pressure Ukraine into doing something he

217
00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,560
Speaker 1: wants it to do. In other words, to say, listen,

218
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,000
Speaker 1: your position is extremely untenable. You have this corruption problem.

219
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,240
Speaker 1: You have to agree to a deal with Russia now,

220
00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,800
Speaker 1: even if it's on terms you don't like. And so

221
00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,960
Speaker 1: that really gives you a sense of how he's playing this.

222
00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,480
Speaker 1: He sees this as a serious problem for Ukraine that

223
00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,840
Speaker 1: can be exploited. So it comes at just such a

224
00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,559
Speaker 1: bad time for President Zelenski.

225
00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:37,840
Speaker 2: That twenty eight point piece plan gives us a window

226
00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,520
Speaker 2: into what Russia thinks it would take to end this conflict.

227
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,800
Speaker 2: How about for the Ukrainians, what would it take for

228
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,040
Speaker 2: them to declare this over?

229
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I think what they want is their freedom back.

230
00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 1: They don't want to have limits on the size of

231
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:58,239
Speaker 1: their military. They want Russia obviously out of the territory

232
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,720
Speaker 1: that it invaded, both in the least couple of years

233
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,800
Speaker 1: but also in the invasion in twenty fourteen. They would

234
00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,120
Speaker 1: love to get Crimea back. I think what you would

235
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,440
Speaker 1: see them potentially settle for, and this is something that

236
00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,840
Speaker 1: is very, very hotly debated, is there would be some

237
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:17,560
Speaker 1: willingness to concede some territory, if not by law then

238
00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:21,800
Speaker 1: de facto, so not a formal recognition that Russia has

239
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,800
Speaker 1: that land. But you know, there are examples of this

240
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,200
Speaker 1: all around the world where you see these conflicts, whether

241
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,840
Speaker 1: it's between Greece and Turkey or North and South Korea,

242
00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:33,160
Speaker 1: or elsewhere, or where you have this land that both

243
00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,439
Speaker 1: sides claim but is left in a legal limbo. There

244
00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,000
Speaker 1: is some indication we're seeing that Ukraine would be willing

245
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,760
Speaker 1: to agree, at least in the short term, to a

246
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:47,959
Speaker 1: situation where the land was de facto Russian but left

247
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:49,160
Speaker 1: legally ambiguous.

248
00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,400
Speaker 2: I'll ask you lastly, as the Thrill negotiation takes place,

249
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,120
Speaker 2: what's your sense of how much longer Ukraine can hold

250
00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,920
Speaker 2: out if it decides this piece steal as drafted as

251
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,360
Speaker 2: a non starter, given the predicament that it's in, given

252
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,160
Speaker 2: Russia's ability to prosecute this war, and it's seeming willingness

253
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 2: to continue doing that.

254
00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,520
Speaker 1: What we know from Vladimir Zelenski's own comments on this

255
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:16,959
Speaker 1: is that it's going to be a very very difficult winter.

256
00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,600
Speaker 1: That Ukraine can get through the winter, but looking into

257
00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 1: next year is going to be really, really difficult. And

258
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:30,400
Speaker 1: there is this theory of the case. Again, you can

259
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,920
Speaker 1: talk to one hundred analysts and former military officials and

260
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,960
Speaker 1: Ukrainian officials and American officials and Russian officials and get

261
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 1: one hundred different predictions about what's going to happen next.

262
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,760
Speaker 1: But one theory out there is that things happen very

263
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,840
Speaker 1: very slowly, and then they happen very very quickly. So

264
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:53,200
Speaker 1: you have these very incremental, tiny changes where Russia slowly

265
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,240
Speaker 1: takes little bites out of Ukrainian territory and then something

266
00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 1: really big happens and they take a whole bunch of

267
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 1: land all at once. That's why you see Ukraine trying

268
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,240
Speaker 1: to do this thing now of Essentially some of the

269
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,720
Speaker 1: conversations out of Europe is we need to make Ukraine

270
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,440
Speaker 1: like a porcupine, or we need to make it indigestible.

271
00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,400
Speaker 1: So we just want to create the condition so that

272
00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 1: Russia can't swallow it up, or at least swallow up

273
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,080
Speaker 1: a significant chunk of territory in the east. That is

274
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,160
Speaker 1: really one of the big concerns. I think you would

275
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,840
Speaker 1: see Europe try to push and step up its purchases

276
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: of materiel, and you will start to see over the

277
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 1: next year to even more defense weapon reproduction going online.

278
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,760
Speaker 1: But the question is how do you bridge the gap

279
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,360
Speaker 1: between getting through this winter and when that weapon reproduction

280
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 1: can get online so that Europe can flood the weapons

281
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:44,640
Speaker 1: of material to Ukraine.

282
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:53,520
Speaker 2: Nick, thank you very much, my pleasure. This is the

283
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,200
Speaker 2: big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David gurat To get

284
00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:58,440
Speaker 2: more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all

285
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg dot Com subscrib today at Bloomberg dot Com

286
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:05,200
Speaker 2: slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode, make sure

287
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 2: to follow and review The Big Take wherever you listen

288
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 2: to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening.

289
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:11,600
Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow