WEBVTT - Iran Is Still Not Deterred: Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Hours after that initial attack, two ballistic missiles were fired

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<v Speaker 1>in the direction of the USS Mason from Yemen, where

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian BacT Hutis operate. The missiles fell far short of

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<v Speaker 1>the Mason, about ten miles away, but US ships in

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<v Speaker 1>the region have been in the line of fire since

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<v Speaker 1>the war in Gaza began, although this morning it is

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<v Speaker 1>still unclear whether this attack on the commercial vessel, which

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<v Speaker 1>is owned by a company led by an Israeli born

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<v Speaker 1>shipping magnate, is part of these larger threats coming from

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<v Speaker 1>these Iranian backed forces.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's sort of breaking news overnight an Iranian back

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<v Speaker 2>group firing missiles out a US warship. So we got

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<v Speaker 2>that going on in addition to obviously the call it

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<v Speaker 2>a ceasefire or pause there between Israel and Hamas. And

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<v Speaker 2>then the capital of Ukraine underwent the biggest drone attack

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<v Speaker 2>since the war began over the weekend.

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<v Speaker 3>So many topics and subtopics to discuss with Mike Lyons

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<v Speaker 3>who served the US military. They're in a variety of

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<v Speaker 3>capacities and places around the world and is now a

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<v Speaker 3>respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike welcome, how.

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<v Speaker 4>Are you hey, guys? Great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 3>Hope you had a good Thanksgiving.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's start with Iran groups firing at our warships.

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<v Speaker 4>What do you make of that? You know, Iran still

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<v Speaker 4>is not deterred on any level. These are Iranians supported

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<v Speaker 4>militia groups that but for Iran, they don't have any

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<v Speaker 4>of this kind of capability. The fact that they could

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<v Speaker 4>fire on a US warship is amazing on some level,

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<v Speaker 4>but it just shows you the level of support that

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<v Speaker 4>they get. We see soldiers that are been fired on

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<v Speaker 4>in Syria and inside of Iraq as well, and you know,

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<v Speaker 4>to kind of connect us to Israel a little bit,

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<v Speaker 4>now looks like the tie goes to the Iranians to

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<v Speaker 4>get their hostages out. We still have American hostages there are.

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<v Speaker 4>It just gets back to our relationship with Iran is

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<v Speaker 4>just completely dysfunctional. They're just not deterred on any level

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<v Speaker 4>from a military perspective, and we just continue to chase

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<v Speaker 4>them all around the globe here and let them, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>kind of lead and dictate what's going on. It's the

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<v Speaker 4>problem is what's going to happen. It is literally a

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<v Speaker 4>matter of time before the Israelis start a war with

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<v Speaker 4>the Uranians because of their nuclear capability, and at some

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<v Speaker 4>point the Cans getting kicked down the road. But at

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<v Speaker 4>some point we'd have to deal with Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, last time we talked to you were highly unsatisfied

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<v Speaker 3>with the amount of return fire that we offered to

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<v Speaker 3>the Iranian proxies when they were you know, shooting missiles

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<v Speaker 3>and drones and whatnot at our guys in a variety

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<v Speaker 3>of places.

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<v Speaker 4>No, no, for sure, until Tehran feels the pain here,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, we're firing back at proxy groups or AMO

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<v Speaker 4>dumps or not military formations and not taking away their

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<v Speaker 4>real capability to do this. But you know it's a willpower.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that likely if we're going to fire a missile

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<v Speaker 4>inside of Iraq? Iran, if we take down their drone

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<v Speaker 4>capability or go after some some real military target inside,

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<v Speaker 4>that would escalate And this administration is just unwilling to

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<v Speaker 4>do that. So therefore Iran gets to pull all the strings.

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<v Speaker 4>They are conducting a masterful proxy war on so many levels.

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<v Speaker 4>They've got at least thirteen or fourteen different separate brigades

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<v Speaker 4>that operate in the Middle East in excess of one

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<v Speaker 4>hundred thousand troops. This is why Israel has the problem

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<v Speaker 4>because it's for them to fight one hundred thousand troops there.

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<v Speaker 4>If they ever got their stuff all together, it'd be

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<v Speaker 4>real challenge from a military perspective. And on top of that,

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<v Speaker 4>they're spread out in the North and with HESBLA, they're

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<v Speaker 4>spread out in the West Bank with Fatah and other

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<v Speaker 4>organizations that are there inside of Syria. And you know,

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<v Speaker 4>it looks like now Hamas is just trying to get

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<v Speaker 4>everybody to stop the fighting at least because they're trading

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<v Speaker 4>off time for hostages, right. I mean, every day they

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<v Speaker 4>get a break that they could release ten more hostages.

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<v Speaker 4>At some point they're running out of hostages to give up,

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<v Speaker 4>and Israel continues to say they're going to work, going

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<v Speaker 4>to start every day that we delay right now, were

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<v Speaker 4>unfortunately going to have more idea of soldiers killed, but

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<v Speaker 4>that's not a factor into the equation.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So that's one of the reasons wanted to have

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<v Speaker 2>you on today because we're off all last week and

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<v Speaker 2>I was following your Twitter feed and some of your

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<v Speaker 2>comments on the so called cease fire. Is Hamas using

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<v Speaker 2>this to rearm redig in Rea anything.

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<v Speaker 4>Absolutely repositioned forces, likely sending more to the staff, knowing

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<v Speaker 4>full well that the civilians are there to hide behind.

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<v Speaker 4>With that tunnel organization they have, Israel has no choice

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<v Speaker 4>for the ideaf positions there have got to kind of

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<v Speaker 4>hold back a little bit and go into defensive positions.

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<v Speaker 4>They have to protect themselves too, I think, and it's

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<v Speaker 4>very difficult from a soldier's mind to kind of flip

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<v Speaker 4>this switch to go from you know, warfighter to kind

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<v Speaker 4>of peacekeeper on the defensive side. And now all of

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<v Speaker 4>a sudden, let's say the deal falls through today and

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<v Speaker 4>they go twenty four to forty eight hours and no

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<v Speaker 4>hostage is released, They're going to have to make a

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<v Speaker 4>very tough decision to start the war back again. So

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<v Speaker 4>what does that mean for your an idea of soldier

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<v Speaker 4>on the ground you you were waiting with that order,

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<v Speaker 4>what those orders are? I think Israel has got to

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<v Speaker 4>take that very slowly again, bring back air strikes, drone strikes,

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<v Speaker 4>artillery strikes before you know, kind of re engaging in

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<v Speaker 4>the kind of combat that we saw there before they

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<v Speaker 4>stopped it. Israel had all the momentum and unfortunately and

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<v Speaker 4>Hamas knew that, and that's why they got the deal

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<v Speaker 4>they had and that's interesting to stop.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Mike, there's an incredibly strange disconnect I think in

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<v Speaker 3>the discussion of this topic. I mean, around here, we

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<v Speaker 3>consider it self evident that Israel decided Hamas must be

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<v Speaker 3>eliminated as a threat period, not knocked back on their heels,

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<v Speaker 3>and then let negotiations begin October seventh prove to them

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<v Speaker 3>it's untenable to live side byside with Maas. Meanwhile, here

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<v Speaker 3>in the New York Times, for instance, I'm reading that

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<v Speaker 3>Joe Biden's hoping to alter the trajectory of the war

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<v Speaker 3>and extend the ceasefire. Blah blah blah. There is a

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<v Speaker 3>complete disconnect between that thought and the fact that it

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<v Speaker 3>is untenable to live next to Hamas. Ever, again, nobody's

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<v Speaker 3>talking to each other about this.

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<v Speaker 4>Right And the thing is, you know, regime change is

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<v Speaker 4>a military mission that the Ideaf can accomplish, but right

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<v Speaker 4>now it's conflicting with the getting the hostages back, and

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<v Speaker 4>there's going to be so much pressure internally on Israel

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<v Speaker 4>to continue down that path. But the only way that

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<v Speaker 4>Hamas changes is if they you know, destroyed militarily or

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<v Speaker 4>are they surrendered. Let's say, if they decide to fight conventionally,

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<v Speaker 4>but we don't expect that to happen. So this is

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<v Speaker 4>the challenge that that they have. And again the pressure

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<v Speaker 4>coming inside of Israel to continue to pause while they

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<v Speaker 4>get hostages back, I think is so great and to there,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, and to get humanitarian aid all those things

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<v Speaker 4>that go in. And I would love to bring back

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<v Speaker 4>to generals from World War Two and say this is

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<v Speaker 4>how we're fighting comp war this day. What do you

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<v Speaker 4>think of this? How do you think this would go?

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<v Speaker 4>And each you know, the ally generals would probably say, well,

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<v Speaker 4>you might as well just plan on spending the next

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<v Speaker 4>ten years at war because you're never going to destroy

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<v Speaker 4>your enemy if you keep starting and stopping like the

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<v Speaker 4>things you're doing here.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's an interesting perspective. I hadn't heard that you

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<v Speaker 2>have that we don't have, because net Nyahu is saying,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the moment this is done, we're like full

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<v Speaker 2>back into the war. But you're saying psychologically, it's it's

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<v Speaker 2>just not that easy. You can't flip a switch and

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<v Speaker 2>go back to it.

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<v Speaker 4>No, it's not. And it's from a soldier's perspective, they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to recognize that they're going to have to start

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<v Speaker 4>an air camp pain first. Again, they're gonna have to

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<v Speaker 4>soften back up the battlefield as Hamas has moved around.

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<v Speaker 4>They're gonna have to go back to collecting intelligence because

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<v Speaker 4>they're gonna have to bear soldiers at risk. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>the IDF has got to protect this force as well.

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<v Speaker 4>And I get you know, we're trading off IDF lives

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<v Speaker 4>for hostages. Last. No one wants to make that decision, right,

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<v Speaker 4>But that's really what's what's going to come down to here.

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<v Speaker 4>Some I'm sure some Hamas soldiers are already in those

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<v Speaker 4>tunnels heading south that Israel's gonna have to pursue them

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<v Speaker 4>right down the strip. They're gonna be pursuing them right

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<v Speaker 4>into Israel, right into Egypt. That's just a matter of time.

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<v Speaker 4>So this is just prolonging the war when the time comes.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, if our subject is willingness to commit yourself completely

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<v Speaker 3>to defeating your enemy, no matter the costs, public opinion,

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<v Speaker 3>that sort of thing. You've got Israel, then you've got Russia,

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<v Speaker 3>which obviously does not share their their hesitance to do

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<v Speaker 3>what they feel like they need to do in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 3>I'll hit you with a statement. Tell me if I'm

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<v Speaker 3>right wrong or somewhere in between. This is a stalemate.

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine cannot drive Russia out of their territory.

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<v Speaker 4>That's true at this point without any offensive weapons, and

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<v Speaker 4>they were giving them enough equipment so they don't lose,

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<v Speaker 4>but now they won't be able to go on any

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<v Speaker 4>kind of offensive. You're seeing now the winner is now

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<v Speaker 4>going to start taking hold in that part of the world,

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<v Speaker 4>and it is to tell me, and I'm surprised that

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<v Speaker 4>Russia hasn't marshaled its military in order, because they should

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<v Speaker 4>have defeated Ukraine by now, just very frankly based on

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<v Speaker 4>the size and the scope and their industrial capability and

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<v Speaker 4>all the things. The advantages they have in their side

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<v Speaker 4>that they haven't so good good on Ukraine. But the

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<v Speaker 4>second the United States and Allied forces and NATO stops

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<v Speaker 4>supporting Ukraine, then I think they are at risk again.

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<v Speaker 4>So yeah, that's definitely true that Ukraine does not have

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<v Speaker 4>that capability to move them out. This counter offensive is

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<v Speaker 4>on for six months and now it's virtually stalled.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this will be argued throughout history probably, but if

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<v Speaker 2>we had given Ukraine some of the stuff that we

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<v Speaker 2>gave them late, would they have been able to win

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<v Speaker 2>this war.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, they would have had to them day one, right,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, you have sixteens in the life. They would

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<v Speaker 4>have to and it had have to have modern day warns,

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<v Speaker 4>modern day equipment, a tackles, they would they would need

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<v Speaker 4>all the offensive weapons as opposed to defensive weapons. The

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<v Speaker 4>US does a good job of selling, you know, our

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<v Speaker 4>allies defensive weapons because we really don't want to be

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<v Speaker 4>accused of then getting them having to take those weapons

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<v Speaker 4>and go on the offensive with right, That's that's kind

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<v Speaker 4>of the downside there. But if they had better tanks,

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<v Speaker 4>if they had more at tackles, they had deeper artillery,

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<v Speaker 4>they had those kinds of things day one. Maybe because

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<v Speaker 4>now there were eighteen months into it, almost two years

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<v Speaker 4>into it, they would have this more of a competenty

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<v Speaker 4>and capability to do this. But to try to do

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<v Speaker 4>it now you're you're adding water, thinking you're going to

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<v Speaker 4>get a tree in the next six weeks. It's just

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<v Speaker 4>not going to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>Military analyst Mike lyons, Mike, we appreciate the perspective very much.

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<v Speaker 3>Great to talk to you.

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<v Speaker 4>Nice guys. Thanks for having Armstrong and