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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us proud read enough.

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Speaker 3: For running again, So smoothe so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 2: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with.

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Speaker 1: That shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drilled fibus how old Earth? Pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Helloi one and welcome back to Wondergald, the soccer betting

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Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. My name is Michael Lipa. Enjoy me

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Speaker 1: for this our final group stage episode of Euro twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Beach at Cunningham and sam Ingram. Together three

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Speaker 1: of us will go on a little handycapping adventure through

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Speaker 1: the final eight group stage matches. These are taking place

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, June the twenty fifth and Wednesday June the

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Speaker 1: twenty sixth. Four matches each day they kick them off simultaneously. Well,

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Speaker 1: each group kicks off their final matches simultaneously, So we'll

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Speaker 1: start with Group D France, Poland, Netherlands, Austria. These are

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Speaker 1: twelve pm Eastern time kickoffs on Tuesday. We'll start with

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Speaker 1: France and Poland. There is a lot of I think

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of chaos in these two games.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that this game really has the recipe

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Speaker 1: for it. But as we get deeper into this episode,

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Speaker 1: I think we'll have a lot to talk about. Because

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Speaker 1: France is through, Poland is the only as we record

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Speaker 1: right now, we're recording this before the games on Monday,

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Speaker 1: but as we stand right now, Poland was the only

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Speaker 1: team that was eliminated before the third match of the

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Speaker 1: group stage. France is obviously basically one close to one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent to the round of sixteen, but they'll want

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Speaker 1: to win Group D. They are minus three fifty favorites

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Speaker 1: to beat Poland. Poland is coming back nine to one.

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Speaker 1: The draw here is plus four to seventy five BJ.

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Speaker 1: We've talked a little bit already about it, but it's

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Speaker 1: important to note the scenarios for advancing, but you don't

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Speaker 1: ever want to overreact to them because they will be

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Speaker 1: You're already paying a premium in those situations, And is

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Speaker 1: this one where you think everyone's kind of just gonna

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Speaker 1: flock to France because Poland's got nothing to play for it,

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Speaker 1: Maybe there's a little bit of value going.

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Speaker 2: The other way, of course. Yeah. I mean we've we

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Speaker 2: saw this at the World Cup, right Michael, where there

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Speaker 2: were you know, certain scenarios where big favorites essentially had

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Speaker 2: either nothing to play for or a situation where they

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Speaker 2: just needed a draw or a win, and they just

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Speaker 2: tend to get a little bit overvalued. So the situation

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Speaker 2: is that if France wins the match, they will essentially

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Speaker 2: win the group. I think the Netherlands has the tiebreaker

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Speaker 2: over them as it currently stands, but you know, obviously

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about the Netherlands in Austria in a second.

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Speaker 2: France is obviously well more positioned to win the group here,

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Speaker 2: but we don't know if killing and Bope is going

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Speaker 2: to play. He did not play against the Netherlands, and

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Speaker 2: it was very clear that France was really missing him

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Speaker 2: in the side the final third because they were relying

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Speaker 2: on Gravesman, Rabbio, dram and Beile to get on the

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Speaker 2: end of a lot of these chances and they just

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Speaker 2: flat out struggled. There's really are no way of describing it.

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Speaker 2: And honestly, France through these first couple of matches haven't

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Speaker 2: really looked that great. I'm guessing they're probably gonna save him.

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Speaker 2: Bappe would be my guests in this type of situation.

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Speaker 2: We'll obviously see. But I mean, Poland has been really

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Speaker 2: unlucky to have zero points so far. Like they were

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Speaker 2: pretty good against Austria, they were good against Netherlands. Expected

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Speaker 2: goals against Netherlands was one point four set to one

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Speaker 2: point three to two, and then against Austria, who also

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Speaker 2: had a penalty, was one point eight nine to one

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Speaker 2: point six. Poland did allow fourteen penalty box shots seventeen

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Speaker 2: deep completions against the Netherlands, but again they only allowed

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Speaker 2: around one point four expected goals, which shows you how

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Speaker 2: good of a box defending team they are. They didn't

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Speaker 2: allow a single big scoring chance against them. And with

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Speaker 2: the scenario that France is in, with it being a

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Speaker 2: little bit tricky with how Deschamps has played forever, France

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Speaker 2: is a team kind of like in the same aspect

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Speaker 2: of England, except they like to play in transition a

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Speaker 2: little more. When they go ahead, They're going to sit deep,

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Speaker 2: they're going to sit low, and they're going to force

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Speaker 2: you to break them down. Now, when they don't have Himbappe,

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Speaker 2: they lose their best transitional threat. So if France goes

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Speaker 2: up one nothing, I think you're going to see them

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Speaker 2: shut this match down and listen. An upset against France

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Speaker 2: would mean everything to Poland. I know they have nothing

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Speaker 2: to play for it, but it's the last match of

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Speaker 2: the tournament, so of course they're going to give it,

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Speaker 2: give it a go, and give it. They're all out,

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Speaker 2: so I mean Poland is a team that likes to

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Speaker 2: get the ball out wide. In transition, they like to

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Speaker 2: send a lot of crosses. France during had the highest

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Speaker 2: cross completion real allowed of anybody. They were twenty third

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Speaker 2: defensive dual win rates. So I like Poland plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half at minus one five. I think that

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Speaker 2: France is just a little overvalued here because they're in

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Speaker 2: a scenario what they have something to play for in

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Speaker 2: Poland doesn't.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like I like the thought of well, I

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Speaker 3: like the price of Poland handicap. I'm not sure whether

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Speaker 3: I like the thought of it actually winning. So obviously

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Speaker 3: Poland route France have flattered to deceive and day shampson

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Speaker 3: Is playing staff will want to get their tournament started,

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Speaker 3: so a statement win here would be very welcome for

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Speaker 3: the French, as I imagine they've got plenty of critics

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Speaker 3: back home, stirred up by the French media. Currently the

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Speaker 3: lowest scoring team in the tournament going into match day three,

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Speaker 3: scored one goal and France might require go difference to

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Speaker 3: lock in the top spot if they beat Poland and

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Speaker 3: the Netherlands beat Austria. So the onus is very much

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Speaker 3: on France what we get from Poland. Like bj said,

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Speaker 3: I think they will give it a good go. Why not.

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Speaker 3: They've got, you know, thousands of supporters there who have

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Speaker 3: come to cheering on, cheer them on, so they may

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Speaker 3: as well give it a good go in their final

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Speaker 3: group game of the tournament. In terms of approaching this

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Speaker 3: from a better perspective, it wasn't too enticing for me

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Speaker 3: to end up with my hard earned money. There wasn't

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Speaker 3: anything that really stood out. I do think France are overvalued.

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Speaker 3: I looked at France winter Neil as a potential. They're

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Speaker 3: currently three injured in sixty seven minutes without conceding ago,

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Speaker 3: having kept the clean sheet in each of their last

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Speaker 3: four internationals, and although their attack might not be fully

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Speaker 3: at it and rival in the frontline of other nations

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Speaker 3: in Germany and Golo Kante's level of performance has been

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Speaker 3: a breath of fresh air for France just in front

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Speaker 3: of the defense. It would seem that flock into Saudi

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Speaker 3: Arabia hasn't hindered his level whatsoever. And interestingly, actually I

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Speaker 3: saw a start from Opta yesterday that he has made

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Speaker 3: more major tournament appearances without losing than any other European player.

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Speaker 3: So France run beating in his last seventeen games, which

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Speaker 3: is crazy really. So although they may not be firing

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Speaker 3: up top, I still think Poland may struggle to break

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Speaker 3: them down a little bit. And just overall this is

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Speaker 3: a pass from me. We're not sure about Killan and Bape.

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Speaker 3: There's a few question marks. How does that affect France

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Speaker 3: up top. I'm not sure if they'll click in this game,

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Speaker 3: but they very may may well do. Like I said,

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Speaker 3: they probably will want to put on somewhat of a show.

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Speaker 3: So I side with France doing in England in a

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Speaker 3: low scoring affair if I had to choose something, But

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Speaker 3: I'm not overly keen on entering with an official pick.

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Speaker 2: Real quick, what was the the price on France's lowest

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Speaker 2: scoring team in this tournament? They haven't like in the

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Speaker 2: only goal they've scored has been an own goal, so

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Speaker 2: they actually haven't scored a goal themselves, which is crazy.

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Speaker 3: It's crazy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. The one bet I'm seriously contemplating here would be

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Speaker 1: things to kind of get off the rails early and

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Speaker 1: then slow down. It's like over one and a half

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Speaker 1: first half at plus one forty, or perhaps France to

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Speaker 1: be leading to nothing in the halftime correct score market

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Speaker 1: to nothing because like Sam said, I do expect them

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Speaker 1: to put the foot down a bit here, pedal to

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Speaker 1: the metal, try to get ahead and make it comfortable.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that that's just not been in their

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Speaker 1: DNA under the shops, and it's also not they haven't

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Speaker 1: really played in a way that would make you think

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Speaker 1: that they'd be able to clear that hurdle. So that's

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Speaker 1: what I'm wrestling with here, So that's the bet I

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Speaker 1: would be considering. One bet we're all considering for the

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Speaker 1: next one is Austria to upset the Netherlands or to least,

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Speaker 1: you know, give them a go. They are a plus

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Speaker 1: two seventy five underdog against the Dutch. Netherlands is plus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen. The draw here is plus two ten. It's

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Speaker 1: the tricky team to They've been a tricky team to

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Speaker 1: kind of get a feel for. I feel like the

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Speaker 1: Dutch in this tournament, I think you can make an

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Speaker 1: argument they've been both impressive in some ways and then

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Speaker 1: a little dreary in the others and kind of still

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Speaker 1: out card. I think they you know, they came into

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Speaker 1: the tournament between sixteen and twenty to one depending on

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Speaker 1: what sports book you are looking at, and they're hanging

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Speaker 1: around that area that the teams as well, and I

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Speaker 1: just feel like nobody has too much of a feel

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Speaker 1: for what to expect from them going forward. But I

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Speaker 1: think Austria is set up well in this scenario, right,

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Speaker 1: They're in a must Basically, yeah, they can get a

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Speaker 1: draw and move on, but they're gonna want to win.

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Speaker 1: And it's also not in Ralph Ragnick's DNA to sit

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Speaker 1: back and just play for one to one or a

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Speaker 1: nil nil or whatever. So I think that this situation

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Speaker 1: lends itself to Austria being live here Sam. I think

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Speaker 1: that they are worthy of a play in however fashion,

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Speaker 1: whatever fashion you want to do it, whether you want

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Speaker 1: to pick them to pull the upset or cover spread,

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Speaker 1: they just look live in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: I agree, Michael. Yeah, lots of jeopardy on the line

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Speaker 3: in this group, and Austria win will leap frog the Netherlands.

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Speaker 3: So you said there the Dutch plus one and five

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Speaker 3: favorites Austria our plus two to seven five. I don't

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Speaker 3: necessarily buy into that. I don't see there being that

195
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Speaker 3: much of a golfing class when knee sides meet. I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure it'll play out like that. So Austria playing well,

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Speaker 3: they're so well set up and the Dutch won't enjoy that.

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Speaker 3: I don't see the Netherlands having much more joy than

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Speaker 3: France did on match day one. So to see the

200
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Speaker 3: difference in pricing to be able to get Austria with

201
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Speaker 3: a quarter goal advantage on the Asian handicap at plus

202
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Speaker 3: one oh three, it feels like a nice position to

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Speaker 3: be in before a ball is kicked. Austria's class shone

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Speaker 3: through against Poland. We thought it would. The way Austria

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Speaker 3: will set up with Dutch keen to take the majority

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Speaker 3: of possession. I can see the Netherlands struggling against them.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's a good fit stylistically for coman side,

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Speaker 3: fast counter attacking football, working transitions. Austria must be grim

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Speaker 3: to play against, full of energy, lots of running, tough tackling,

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Speaker 3: all the hallmarks of a ragnet side back. Austria's midfield

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Speaker 3: to get the better of the Netherlands middle third could

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Speaker 3: be wildly wrong. But at the prices, I'm not too

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Speaker 3: interested in siding with the favorites. I also looked at

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Speaker 3: like a props angle, looked at Nicholas SeaWorld, but they're

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Speaker 3: too short now minus one three nine for three. He's

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Speaker 3: made ten and two matches, including eight verst fronts, so

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Speaker 3: against the duchess ball carriers, that could be an option

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Speaker 3: for the same game, Poula, if you look into something

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Speaker 3: a little bit short and maybe to add to something else.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, in terms of the main markets and in

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Speaker 3: terms of how I think this game will go, I

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Speaker 3: think get in Austria with a plus goal advantage, plus

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Speaker 3: core goal advantage, and yeah, I think that's why I'll

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Speaker 3: hug my heart up plus money.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree with Sam. I mean here's the

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Speaker 2: things that you know, the Netherlands was was okay against

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Speaker 2: Pawn Like, yes, they took a lot of shots, they

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Speaker 2: dominated at a lot of possession, but they really weren't

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Speaker 2: that great in the final third. And now they're going

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Speaker 2: to for the first time in a really long time,

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Speaker 2: face a team that's going to press them like relentlessly

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Speaker 2: and force them to build that at the back. And

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Speaker 2: here's the two scenarios that I keep playing on my

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Speaker 2: mind of what's going to happen. Right, So, the Netherlands

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Speaker 2: typically like to drop six or seven guys deep in

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Speaker 2: build up and I like to play a lot of short

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Speaker 2: passes through them. They tried that in their very first

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Speaker 2: qualifying match against France. France, you know, they very rarely

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Speaker 2: do that, but they pressed them high and they caused

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Speaker 2: all sorts of problems and they actually scored their first

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Speaker 2: goal off of it. So either one of the two

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Speaker 2: things are going to happen. Either Austria are going to

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Speaker 2: cause problems because they are so so good and not

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Speaker 2: just pressing relentously but relying on pressing triggers and leaving

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Speaker 2: themselves whether when they are vulnerable when they press to

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Speaker 2: force teams to send long balls, you know, switching the play,

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Speaker 2: but they you know, obviously have enough pace to get

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Speaker 2: on the end of those and really win a lot

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Speaker 2: of those tackles. So either they're going to force a

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Speaker 2: lot of turnovers or they're going to force the Netherlands

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Speaker 2: into a lot of long balls. Well, if you're already

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Speaker 2: dropping seven guys deep in build up, that means Austria

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Speaker 2: is going to have a numerical advantage in winning second balls,

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Speaker 2: which they are very very good at because they had

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Speaker 2: the third lowest long ball completion rate allowed during qualifying

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Speaker 2: and have allowed the fourth lowest during this tournament. So

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Speaker 2: either way, I think Austria is going to get a

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Speaker 2: lot of problems. And you know, the Netherlands, as as

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Speaker 2: an identity of a team, is a team that wants

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Speaker 2: to build out of the back, that wants to control possession,

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Speaker 2: that wants to control a match. If they get into

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Speaker 2: an up and down type of basketball type match with Austria,

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Speaker 2: well that's just gonna play right into Austria's hands. So

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be very difficult for the Netherlands. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have to break this press, something they have

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Speaker 2: not been able to do consistently against good pressing teams.

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Speaker 2: So I agree with Sam. I like Austria on the

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Speaker 2: money line and plus two eighty this match, obviously, you

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Speaker 2: know Austria is pretty much through unless they get blown

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Speaker 2: out here and a lot of other things go wrong

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Speaker 2: for them. And you know, like you said, Michael, like

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Speaker 2: this is a ragnet side, they're gonna go for it.

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Speaker 2: Like there's they could potentially win this group, or they

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Speaker 2: could finish the third and if they finished in third,

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna They're gonna like their chances against

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Speaker 2: anybody else they have to face in the round of sixteen,

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Speaker 2: so they're not gonna sit back. They're going to force

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Speaker 2: the issue here against the Netherlands. So I like them

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Speaker 2: to go win this thing at plus two eighty.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So that's Group D. Those are the twelve pm kickoffs.

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Speaker 1: Group C is kicking off at three pm Eastern time,

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Speaker 1: and it is this one is gonna be tons of fun.

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Speaker 1: Let's set it up. England's a top the group right now,

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Speaker 1: went four points. Then Denmark are on two and they're

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Speaker 1: tied with Sloveniat. Both of them also have an even

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Speaker 1: goal differential, and then Serbia is on the at the

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Speaker 1: foot with one point and a minus one goal differential.

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Speaker 1: England is the only team with a positive goal difference

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Speaker 1: in this group, and it's two goals for one goal against.

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Speaker 1: It's this group is so perfectly poised for some chaos,

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Speaker 1: and I actually think that we'll see some, you know,

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Speaker 1: some white knuckles. To start. Let's start with England and Slovenia.

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Speaker 1: England's minus three hundred, Slovenia ten to one on the

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Speaker 1: money line, and the draw here is plus three seventy five.

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Speaker 1: I think that price is pretty crazy. I know that

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Speaker 1: England is their B team, should would be favored over

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Speaker 1: Slovenia at this tournament, but with the way that both

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Speaker 1: of these teams have played, I think it looks a

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Speaker 1: little crazy. So one of the concerns I have here Sam,

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Speaker 1: and you maybe could speak on it, is that there's

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Speaker 1: all this pressure on building on England. They've got four

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Speaker 1: points from six, they haven't really.

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Speaker 2: Played well yet.

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Speaker 1: They played what maybe fifteen really good minutes out of

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty in this tournament so far. There's

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Speaker 1: all this pressure on them to come out and perform.

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Speaker 1: They've got the talent, use that talent, do something, play

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Speaker 1: some more entertaining use just basically outplay, put the ball

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Speaker 1: on the carpet and outplay teams. And I feel like

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Speaker 1: that pressure is going to build up on them and

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Speaker 1: it could end up being a disaster because the Slovenia

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Speaker 1: side has shown they've got some teeth in terms of

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Speaker 1: counter attacking, especially with the way Chefs goes Peo playing.

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Speaker 1: I'd be a little wary if I'm England to get

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Speaker 1: caught out. So I think that if they do come

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Speaker 1: out on that front foot trying to impose their will

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Speaker 1: from the get go, they could get caught. I could

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Speaker 1: see a situation where Slovenia goes into halftime with the lead,

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Speaker 1: So I like that, bet Yere. I like Slovenia on

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Speaker 1: the first half money line at eight to one. I

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Speaker 1: think that in this situation all the pressure will be

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Speaker 1: on England Slovinia. This is a I know that they'll want.

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Speaker 1: There's pressure on them too to get through the group

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Speaker 1: through to the knockout stage against the odds. But sitting

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Speaker 1: back deep and forcing this English team, the England team

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Speaker 1: to come to them and nick a counter attack and

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Speaker 1: goal before they have time whistle hits, I think is

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Speaker 1: actually plausible here and at the number I think is

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Speaker 1: worth a bet, especially with all the pressure that's going

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Speaker 1: to be building up on England's shoulders. So that's where

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Speaker 1: I'm looking here, Sam.

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Speaker 3: That makes me feel a little uncomfortable in all of

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Speaker 3: this stuff, but you're right. In what has been a

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Speaker 3: frantic tournament, England have offered the opportunity for neutrals to

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Speaker 3: collect their breath, sit back and watch the clock for

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Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty of minutes. Really we took the

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Speaker 3: lead and dropped deeper and deeper in both matches. Denmark

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Speaker 3: were comfortable in possession for large spots last time out.

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Speaker 3: Hurricane doesn't look hundred percent. Southgate doesn't know his best

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Speaker 3: team going off. Some of the comments made around not

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Speaker 3: having a natural replacement for Calvin Phillips, which is just bonkers.

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Speaker 3: There will be changes for this England side. Southgate will

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Speaker 3: feel like he needs to find his best team, the

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Speaker 3: right fit for him and his squad ahead of the knockouts.

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Speaker 3: There's been reports today here in England that conn of

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Speaker 3: Gallagher will replace Trent Alexander Arnold in midfield. It felt

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Speaker 3: like a change was needed there. I'm a massive Trent

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Speaker 3: Alexander Arnold fan. But I'm not sold on him in

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Speaker 3: central midfield for England. That either means that Folding stays

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Speaker 3: on the left and Belling them in the town again.

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Speaker 3: Or if I had a choice, and it might sound

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Speaker 3: crazy to say after the season that Phil Folding has hard.

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Speaker 3: If Gallagher and Wright's hard to start in central midfield

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Speaker 3: and Bellingham is on the team sheet, I would take

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Speaker 3: Folding out of the team and go for Anthony Gordon

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Speaker 3: at left wing. I'd rather rash for the Grealish in

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Speaker 3: all honesty, but I really rate Anthony Gordon. I can

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Speaker 3: see him having an impact if he's given the chance.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, you're absolute right. Their opponent Slovenia. They're unbeaten

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Speaker 3: in their last eight games in all competitions. We shouldn't

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Speaker 3: forget that they played well going forward against Denmark and Serbia.

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Speaker 3: They're brave enough to take the game to teams. They've

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Speaker 3: got two decent struggures up top, but defensively, I just

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Speaker 3: struggle to see how they cope against in England side

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Speaker 3: that might only be at seventy percent in terms of performance.

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Speaker 3: When England are in possession and moving through the thirds,

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Speaker 3: they're so open back their Slovenia and I just can't

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Speaker 3: see a situation, no matter how poor we may be,

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Speaker 3: looking going forward out the minute, where England doesn't find

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Speaker 3: an opener. And in terms of the stats, if you

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Speaker 3: look at the expected goes after match day two, only

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Speaker 3: Scotland with zero point eight XG have recorded fewer expected

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Speaker 3: goes than England's one point four after two games. But

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Speaker 3: no nation at the other end has conceded fewer expected

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Speaker 3: goes than England's one point zero XG. So although we

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Speaker 3: might not be fully firing up top, it's still going

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Speaker 3: to be really hard for this Slovenia team to break

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Speaker 3: through England, I hope. So along that line, I think

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Speaker 3: although England are short on the nose in the one

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Speaker 3: x two markets, you can couple that with under four

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Speaker 3: goes UH minus one eleven, and I like the sound

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Speaker 3: of acts. It would be very very England to find

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Speaker 3: a way get through the group stages, unbeaten for the

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Speaker 3: fourth major tournament in a row and nicko one nil

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Speaker 3: two nil two and get to the round of sixteen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: That that comment about Calvin Phillips just was like, you know,

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Speaker 2: you already had a fire that was out of control,

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Speaker 2: and then he decaided, they's done five more gallons of

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Speaker 2: gasoline on top of it. And yeah, I mean everybody's

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Speaker 2: had their say pretty much on what they think the

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Speaker 2: lineup should be, and you know, some changes probably are

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Speaker 2: going to be made. But the thing that's been worrying,

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Speaker 2: and this has been happening in Sam knows, this has

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Speaker 2: been happening forever, is that when England faces teams that

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Speaker 2: play very passive, low defensive blocks, and you saw that

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Speaker 2: against both Serbia and Denmark, their passings and their rotations

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Speaker 2: are just so slow and it's just so easy to defend.

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Speaker 2: When the passes are just pinging around at a very

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Speaker 2: still pace, they're not able to find guys in between

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Speaker 2: lines or centrally. So even if you go look at

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Speaker 2: the pass map from the match against Denmark, it's just Rice, Alexander, Arnold,

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Speaker 2: Gayhee and Stones just passing the ball back and forth

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Speaker 2: to each other in a very im packed small area.

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Speaker 2: And I have a feeling that's probably going to happen

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Speaker 2: here again. Even if they decide to face put Gallagher

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Speaker 2: in the midfield, because Slovenia is one of the most

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Speaker 2: passive teams in this entire tournament. They're going to sit

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Speaker 2: in a four to four to two, very basic, very

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Speaker 2: compact and just do exactly what both Denmark and Serbia

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Speaker 2: have done, because England hasn't created over one expected goal

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Speaker 2: on either of their matches. Harry Can had twenty two

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Speaker 2: touches against Denmark. Like if you look at the percentages

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Speaker 2: of where England's attacks are going, you know, as an

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Speaker 2: Arsenal fan, it pains me to say this, but like

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Speaker 2: they're doing a little of what Arsenal did and what

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Speaker 2: they struggled with, which is just like, let's get the

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Speaker 2: ball to Sokka and let's just hope that he does

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Speaker 2: something and creates a chance for us from out wide,

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Speaker 2: and it just isn't working, especially against very compact, low

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Speaker 2: defensive blocks. But like Sam mentioned, and this is the

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Speaker 2: truth that England's the best defensive team in the world

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Speaker 2: and they do not get beat in transition, and they

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Speaker 2: don't get beat by crosses and set pieces. So what

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Speaker 2: you do is you take away the three things that

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Speaker 2: underdogs can beat you with. You saw that against Serbia.

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Speaker 2: I mean Serbia completed what one process of the penaldaria

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Speaker 2: despite firing in I think it was like seventeen or

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Speaker 2: eighteen of them. You know, for Slovenia, it's get the

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Speaker 2: ball out wide, send it across, get off a set piece,

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Speaker 2: or let's just get the ball to Cessco and let

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Speaker 2: them try to hit something from outside the box. And

433
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:27,640
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be able to do that,

434
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 2: So I like under two and a half goals at

435
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 2: minus won ten only projected a little over two goals

436
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,479
Speaker 2: for this match, So yeah, I think I'm gonna keep

437
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: betting these England unders until they show a little bit

438
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 2: of what they did at the twenty twenty two World

439
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,479
Speaker 2: Cup and play a little bit more attacking football with

440
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 2: a little bit more aggressiveness.

441
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,640
Speaker 1: The other Group D match at three pm Eastern time

442
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,360
Speaker 1: is Denmark and Serbia. As I said, Denmark's on two

443
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 1: points after their back to back one one draws with

444
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: Slovietia then England two very different one to one draws.

445
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 1: Serbia got themselves an elite one to one draw against

446
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 1: Slovenia in their second match, and now or plus two

447
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: ten underdogs on the three way line at bet three

448
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: six five Denmark plus one twenty five favorites and the

449
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: draw is plus two fifty. This is a must win

450
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: for Serbia. They've got no chance but to win. They've

451
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: got no option but to win if they want to

452
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 1: advance as either a second or third place team. Denmark

453
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 1: has to avoid defeat, so the situation is quite interesting.

454
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,239
Speaker 1: I also, I've been saying it from the beginning that

455
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 1: the Serbia team should be chaotic. Don't think that they

456
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: really fit that bill yet until what the ninety seventh

457
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 1: minute or whatever against Slovenia, whenever they tied that game up.

458
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 1: I do think that in this situation, though, I'd much

459
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 1: rather lean You can make the argument that would you

460
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: want to be on the side of the team that's,

461
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: you know, very stoic experience they played together forever in

462
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: Denmark or the side that is more chaotic, kind of

463
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: a wildcard, and I think at the prices, I'd rather

464
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: lean towards Serbia. I just don't know if the number

465
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: is good enough to take on here. I think I

466
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: was hoping they'd be a little bit of a bigger underdog,

467
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,679
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's it's really uh, it's all

468
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: that enticing. So I'll be rooting for the Serbian team.

469
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: I've got that future that looks like it's gonna die

470
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 1: here in the group stage. But if I had to

471
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 1: pick based on the prices, I would still look at Serbia.

472
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: It's just not one that I'm all that excited for sam,

473
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: But I do think that this game could could end

474
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: up being pretty chaotic with the way these two teams

475
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: will want to play in the stakes at in the

476
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: situation at stake.

477
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 3: So Serbia is such a frustrating team to watch against

478
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,239
Speaker 3: England that we covered it after match day one. They

479
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 3: really struggled to link midfield to attack. They rarely troubled

480
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: England despite having the forward thinking players to do so.

481
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 3: Changed a little bit when Taditch come on. Despite having

482
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: an aerial advantage, their strikeforce in Mitrovich and Vlahovich struggling

483
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 3: to have an impact. They lack of cutting edge at present.

484
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 3: Serbia desperately need them to click against Denmark here because

485
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 3: if they don't, I'm not sure they'll get any joy

486
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 3: against Denmark at all. They can't afford to not be

487
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: efficient in the final third. When a nation like Serbia

488
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 3: creates opportunities at this level, they have to take them

489
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: else they will get punished at in the national level.

490
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: Denmark for me, you mentioned it, they feel like a

491
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 3: more well rounded team They've been together for a long time.

492
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 3: They're used to these big games at big tournaments. They

493
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 3: have the players to showder that burden, that pressure. They've

494
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 3: been there and done it. And this betting game is

495
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: all about value first and foremost. But then it's all

496
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: about siding the teams and players you trust to get

497
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 3: a selection over the line, and that's exactly what we

498
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 3: have here in Denmark. So I kind of like Denmark

499
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: at the prices. They're the better team for spells against England,

500
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 3: although lacking a real consistent threat. That's no disgrace against England,

501
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: but I wouldn't hold that against them. It should be

502
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 3: a different story against Serbia. The Danes did look susceptible

503
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 3: against Slovenia again and again, and that's a concern. If

504
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 3: Serbia perform at their best level, then they have enough

505
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 3: to be a collective nuisance in this final group game.

506
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: But I'm just not sure that will happen. So yeah,

507
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 3: I didn't mind Denmark at the plus one twenty to win,

508
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 3: and they're a better collective as a group. I'll bat

509
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 3: them to outgun Serbia in the end. I can see

510
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 3: them being in front by the time the second half

511
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 3: comes around. And I think that will see Serbia get desperate.

512
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 3: So the way I'm going instead of looking at the

513
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 3: money line is to look at bookings in the props market.

514
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 3: So if this doesn't go Serbia's way, I'm confident that

515
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: they become familiar with the referee. Francois Ltexia is the

516
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 3: man in the middle, and although he's not the most

517
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 3: frivolous with his cards, I'll be shocked if Serbia don't

518
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: pick up at least a couple of bookings in the

519
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 3: second half. The refors officiated one game at your twenty

520
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 3: twenty four so far. That was Croatia versus Albania. As

521
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: the Albanians were pushing for their late equalizer, he handed

522
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 3: out three Albutian cards in the last twenty minutes there.

523
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 3: So if you think back to the World Cup when

524
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 3: Serbia were crashing out against Switzerland in the final group game,

525
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 3: they received six bookings in the second half as well

526
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: as one on the bench. And here, if you take

527
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 3: denmarkle draw double chance and over one point five Serbia

528
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 3: cards in the game, that's minus when one. But if

529
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 3: you take denmarkael draw and over one point five Serbia

530
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 3: second half cards on Betfrey six five and that gets

531
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: to plus one fifty if you're looking for something bigger.

532
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,919
Speaker 3: So I like the four of that Denmark to not

533
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 3: lose the game and then Serbia to lose their heads

534
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 3: as the final whistle approaches.

535
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: I love that. Yeah, No, I'm going to pass on

536
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 2: this match projected it pretty close to where the market

537
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 2: has it, but if I were go anything, I love that.

538
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 2: I love that cards angle, Sam. I absolutely adore that because, yes,

539
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: as you've seen, Serbia tends to lose their heads when

540
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 2: things start going negatively, and we've already had some let's

541
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: just say something extracurricular things going on in the crowd

542
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 2: involving all of the Balkan teams so far this tournament,

543
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 2: so very easy for them to lose their heads. So

544
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 2: I'll be passing. I'll be passing on this one, but

545
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 2: I love I love Sam's cards angle in Serbia.

546
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: Though, Okay, we will flip the page to Thursday, but

547
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: before we do that, a reminder that wonder goal is

548
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five and Bet three six

549
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,800
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550
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 1: with them than anyone else. Every day they power up

551
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a

552
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 1: chance to win more Bet three six five boost specific markets,

553
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: your winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there.

554
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: Keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds

555
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: with the incredible super Boost. Check out the boots and

556
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: see why it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five.

557
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: You must be twenty one or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

558
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older

559
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: in Kentucky. And if you or anyone you know has

560
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: a gambling problem wants help, please call it one eight

561
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 1: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

562
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: Terms conditions and restrictions apply. Okay, let's move on to

563
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: the Thursday, excuse me Wednesday kickoffs, I should say not

564
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: Thursday between. We'll start with the new Eastern time five

565
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: pm British summertime kickoffs. We'll go with Slovakia and Romania

566
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: here in what is a really fun group to break down.

567
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 1: As we get into the pointy end of the group stage,

568
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: Romania are on three points, Slovakia is on three points,

569
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: Ukraine's on three points, in belgiums on three points in

570
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 1: this group it is chaos. Let's talk Slovakia though they

571
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: are plus two twenty on the three way line. Romania

572
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: is plus two seventy five and the draw is plus

573
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 1: one ten. Why is it like that. I'm looking at that.

574
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: That can't be right, right, I'm looking at that.

575
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 2: Plus one ten. Yeah, so these So how it stands

576
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 2: right now is essentially both the Romania and Slovakia would

577
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: be through to the round of sixteen right if they draw.

578
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: So that's why this is. We had a similar situation

579
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 2: with Austria and Ukraine into last Euros where like literally

580
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 2: they both beat pretty much the same exact scenario where

581
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: both of them had to win, both of them beating

582
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: North Macedonia. So and how all the other third place

583
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 2: teams like set up It was basically just like there

584
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,959
Speaker 2: was really and they couldn't win the groups. They were like, okay,

585
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 2: it's just I think the draw closed like minus one

586
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 2: ten in that match. So the books it opened around

587
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 2: plus one ninety plus two hundred on the draw and it.

588
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, less way down, as I said, less time I

589
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: looked at it, it was not like this, and it

590
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: just jumped off the page at me because I know

591
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: that we're like money was going to come in on

592
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: the draw, but at seeing it at plus one ten

593
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: here is crazy and you don't want to The most

594
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 1: famous example of anything like this is like the disgrace

595
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: of Gillon in nineteen eighty two. I feel like the

596
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: markets tent to overreact, obviously to stuff like this, and

597
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: but what are your thoughts here Slovakia Romania. I mean,

598
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 1: it would be a massive achievement for both sides to

599
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: get through, so you could see why the money is

600
00:29:57,840 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: just going to keep pouring in on the draw.

601
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, this is a bit of fun. I love

602
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 3: stuff like this. So they both need a draw at least,

603
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 3: but they also need Belgium to avoid defeat, and that's

604
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 3: now reflected in the betting. I think on the twelfth

605
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 3: of June this opened at plus two ten and now

606
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 3: right down to the plus one ten favorite in the

607
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 3: one x two ten days later. Given the makeup of

608
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 3: the group, we've also got the goal line at over

609
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: one point seventy five, which is rare, and that's a

610
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 3: minus one two five. So two goes in the game

611
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 3: and you win half profits, free goes for full profits.

612
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: That's intriguing, especially after navigating a Premier League season where

613
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 3: we were greeted with over four point zero Asian goal

614
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 3: lines nearly every single week. So that's interesting, but I

615
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 3: wouldn't touch that personally as nil nil makes perfect sense

616
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 3: for both And if you choose no goal scorer in

617
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 3: this match instead of the nil nil on bet pri

618
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 3: Ss five, then we're covered if there's a single one

619
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 3: goal or two on goals for example. So that's a

620
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 3: handy angle in if you ever get to a match

621
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 3: and you really fancy the nil nil, it just makes

622
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: complete sense. Like both of these teams that they're not

623
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 3: exactly you know, regulars in the knockout stages, and if

624
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 3: they can both link hands and skip towards the round

625
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 3: of sixty with a nil nil, then I'm going to

626
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 3: buck it so you can get no goo score at

627
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 3: plus four fifty. I like the sound of lot, so

628
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 3: I'll think, oh, yeah, that's where I'll be going.

629
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's been great to to, like, you know, someone,

630
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: I always take a peek at nil nil odds for

631
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: every basically every match, so seeing these are basically it's

632
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: been slashing in half compared to what you normally get

633
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: in this tournament. I like that angle. I'm going to

634
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: join you on that go at the nil nil and

635
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: watch this one that. This is why we love these

636
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,959
Speaker 1: these international tournaments, right. The situations that arise here are

637
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 1: always so much fun. Tongues will get wagon on whether

638
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: or not it's in the spirit of the game. But

639
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're Romanian or Slovakian, like we're saying,

640
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: getting to the to the round of sixteen in this tournament,

641
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: you know, this is how I envisioned when I said

642
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: I can see Romania causing a rabble in this group

643
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: and getting through. This is exactly how I saw it.

644
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: Just holding hands with Slovakian and walking through the doors together.

645
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: That's exactly how I saw it. The other match in

646
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: this one is obviously going to play out very differently

647
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: with Ukraine and Belgium. I'm I don't even know what

648
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: to say any more about Rabelulukaku and Bar But in

649
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 1: this match, Ukraine has plus three seventy five, Belgium is

650
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: odds on minus one fifty four and the draw is

651
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: plus three thirty three. As I said, all three group

652
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: all three teams here are on three points. In Group E,

653
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 1: a point would get both these teams through. I mean,

654
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 1: I guess it depends on the other match. It would

655
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: be hilarious if all four teams end up on four

656
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: points and we're sorting through crazy. You know, tie breakers

657
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 1: in a tournament.

658
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: Wait, I have the tie breakers right in front of me, Michael,

659
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 2: and I'm not going to go into too much detail.

660
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 2: You can go read these for yourselves as you want to,

661
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 2: but essentially, if everybody ends on four points, there's like

662
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 2: there's two or three different scenarios that would come into play.

663
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,719
Speaker 2: If Belgium and Ukraine is a draw with fewer goals

664
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,959
Speaker 2: than Slovakia and Romania, then Romania wins the group, Belgium

665
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 2: finishes in second, and Slovakia finishes in third. But if

666
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 2: Belgium Ukraine ends in one to one or obviously Belgium wins,

667
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 2: they win the group. But if Belgium Ukraine ends in

668
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: one to one in Slovakia and Romania ends in zero zero,

669
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 2: then Belgium would finish first, Romania second, in Slovakia in third.

670
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 2: So it's all sorts of crazy right now. But again,

671
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: you can go read those for yourselves, because there's like

672
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 2: three paragraphs here. I'm not going to waste everybody's time.

673
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: But yeah, there's some real chaos scenarios. Basically, the gist

674
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 2: of it is that Ukraine has to win, like they

675
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 2: need either to finish in third, they would need to

676
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: if they were to draw, they would need Slovakia Romania

677
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: just to end with one of those teams winning and

678
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 2: not in a draw. So essentially that's why you're seeing

679
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 2: Romania Slovakia at such a low price. It's just because,

680
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 2: like you, no matter what happens, if they in a draw,

681
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 2: Ukraine finishes and fourth and that's it. So yeah, it's uh,

682
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 2: it's all sorts of crazy.

683
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I needless to say all three of us are

684
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,439
Speaker 1: going to be on on the Kaku here though, Yeah right, Sam,

685
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 1: I mean I don't. I don't think he's having perhaps

686
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: the the best tournament I've ever seen for someone who

687
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 1: hasn't scored a goal yet for a striker, I should

688
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 1: say this is it's been outrageous. I mean the past

689
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 1: the tea elements on the opener was great and he

690
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 1: gets another one. Vard Off, it's your big you feel

691
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 1: bad for for Big rom the former the former Toffee.

692
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 3: You really do. I've been looking for a price for

693
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 3: Lukaku the school and the lawnsman to put his flag up,

694
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 3: but I've not seen any so if anyone's out there,

695
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 3: I'll take Yeah, exactly, I'll take it. But no, we

696
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,919
Speaker 3: must be suckers for punishment after backing him in both

697
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 3: matches so far. But we've gone so far now we

698
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 3: can't really deviate from lu Kaku like on Obviously he's

699
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 3: had another go this a loud frost side deemed fractionally

700
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 3: off side, making it three goes in two matches for him.

701
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 3: At the end of match d two, Lukaku's one point

702
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 3: three non penalty XG was the third highest in the

703
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 3: competition and obviously that'd be much much higher if he

704
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 3: could keep himself on side. And yeah, looking at Belgium

705
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 3: specifically going into last game, I called out Yannick Carrasco

706
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 3: at left back on the pod. I didn't really like

707
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 3: the look of that. To Desco changed that. He brought

708
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 3: in Arthur Fierti, who is a natural center back, along

709
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,479
Speaker 3: with Vitaran and he tucked in and formed the free

710
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 3: man defense in possession, similar to how the Netherlands operate,

711
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: with Kastano pushing forward on the other flank for Belgium

712
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 3: like Dunfries does for the Dutch. Like you said, Tillerman's

713
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 3: come in for Mangale and he made an impact to

714
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 3: scoring in Lincoln, play well with those in front of him,

715
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 3: and so to Desco saw you know it wasn't quite

716
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 3: right changed it. Belgium looked much better and for in

717
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 3: terms of the Ukraine, there are question marks over them

718
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: defensively and offensively and up against the nation a level

719
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 3: above them in Belgium. I just think Belgium should win this,

720
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 3: and even if they don't win this, I think they

721
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 3: should be creating the opportunities to do so. So I'd

722
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 3: stay clear of Belgium in on the money line, but

723
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: with the likely chance creation on display for Belgium, I

724
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 3: feel like I said all this last week, but they're

725
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: leading striker to find them there. It just makes sense,

726
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 3: regardless of what we've had the pleasure of watching from

727
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 3: Romolu Lukaku, and just on a bit of a side note,

728
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,879
Speaker 3: I'm just so intrigued that where he ends up domestically,

729
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 3: Like I'm not sure if you've seen any links to

730
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 3: any clubs, but as it stands, he's rocking up to

731
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 3: Chelsea training in a few weeks and they'll be too

732
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 3: pleased to see it.

733
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 2: Maybe they should actually start him exactly. It's crazy. No,

734
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: I'll be on the cock score again. I mean it's

735
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 2: it's just been beautiful, right, Like we say, how can

736
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 2: he top what he did in the first match. Well,

737
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 2: he's a toenail off side and creates, you know, like Samson.

738
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: He's got one point two non penalty XG two the

739
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 2: first gold matches. If you add in the three goals

740
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 2: that have been barred off, he would have one point

741
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: two expected goals, more than anybody in this entire tournament.

742
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 2: He's had eight shots so far, that's second most in

743
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 2: the tournament. And even if you watch the Romania match

744
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 2: late in it like there were so many like rosses

745
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 2: into him that like they just like the Romanian guys

746
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 2: just kicked it away at the very last minute, Like

747
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: there were so many freaking chances for him to score.

748
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, let's just triple down. Why not, Let's see

749
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: how he can tell let's see how he can top

750
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 2: it this time.

751
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna be on the two plus at five

752
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: to one. Probably sprinkled the Patrick at twenty five to

753
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: one two because if I feel like if he gets

754
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 1: one and the Lions keeps his flag down and we

755
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: don't see that the square come out, I think that

756
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: it's going to lead to more and more. He's still

757
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: just fourteen to one to.

758
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 2: Win the Golden Boot. Just for got to go for

759
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,879
Speaker 2: this too, Like they're they're not in a situation where

760
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 2: they're playing for a draw and they have to win.

761
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: They got to make up some goal difference, so it's

762
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 2: going to be open.

763
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 1: Let's it's so annoying that this number hasn't drifted though,

764
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: Like I I don't understand, Like I get that Lucilla

765
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: leads that you know, he used the pay setter right

766
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: now and it's only two, so it's not like, you know, yeah,

767
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: he's out of sight, out of mind, But to keep

768
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,760
Speaker 1: the number at the same price that it's been since

769
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 1: the tournament started, like as it shortened up a bit,

770
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:17,320
Speaker 1: it's so annoying because.

771
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 2: Well, if you look at the leading goal scorers, Michael,

772
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 2: it's actually own goal leads the tournament at six goals,

773
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 2: Lukaku goals barred off at three, and then.

774
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 1: Oh god, it's it's been so much fun.

775
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 2: Well it's like this, like you know, we wonder like

776
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 2: how can we top Marata and twenty four? This has

777
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 2: been like we.

778
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 1: Found a way to do it, We found a way

779
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 1: to enjoy, we found a way that you found even

780
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: something even crazier. Yeah, so uh, we're all over Lukaku

781
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 1: again for that one. All right, we'll wrap up with

782
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 1: the three pm kickoffs uh in uh on Wednesday. That's

783
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: Group F which features Portugal a top they've won the group.

784
00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: They are on six points. Turkey, Chechia and Georgia will

785
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,919
Speaker 1: be fighting it out for the final two spots if

786
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 1: they get through or get a third place through in

787
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 1: the knockout stage. Turkey is on three points with a

788
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: negative one goal difference, Checkia one point, negative one goal difference,

789
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: Georgia one point and a negative two goal difference. They

790
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:24,439
Speaker 1: also have to take on Portugal in the final match,

791
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 1: so they're gonna be up against that. Their excuse me,

792
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: their plus six fifty underdogs on the three way line

793
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: against Portugal, the Portuguese or minus two to fifty and

794
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 1: the draw is four to one. Here it's an interesting scenario.

795
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 1: We talked to BJ and I talked about it as

796
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 1: Sam was boiling in Croatia and for the last episode

797
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: that it's the Albania speed angle, right, which is one

798
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,240
Speaker 1: team has nothing to go for. You'd imagine that they'd

799
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 1: want to keep things rolling, but at the same time

800
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 1: don't want to risk any especially with some of their

801
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: players who are aging out of their prime and playing

802
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 1: really well. I mean, Sam, you you you tabbed Bernardo

803
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: Silva before the tournament as a player to watch and

804
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: invest in futures. He's had a really good tournament.

805
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 2: I thought Ronaldo it was really good the.

806
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 1: Other day as well. So like it's it's a fine

807
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 1: kind of balance that they'll have to make do with

808
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: in a game that you don't have anything to really

809
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,760
Speaker 1: gain from. Georgia, meanwhile, has been plucky, they've been exciting

810
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 1: and all that, So I guess I would lean towards

811
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: I think that this is a good one to lie

812
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 1: bet if Georgia goes ahead early or something, then back

813
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,479
Speaker 1: Portugal to come back, or maybe if George is down

814
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 1: one nill that you can look at a draw. It's one.

815
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: I think it's just one to you'd have to watch

816
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 1: for the game to develop and you'll be able to

817
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: find an angle in. But uh, Sam, you you do

818
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: think that there's at least a slight bit of value

819
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: on a I guess, an esthetically pleasing game that ends

820
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 1: with Portugal on top.

821
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,919
Speaker 3: I think so. Michael common Sense says that this would

822
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 3: be the perfect time to rest a few key players,

823
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 3: Pepe and Ronaldo probably the standouts. And resting players at

824
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 3: a major tournament is a massive privilege. It's not something

825
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 3: that should be overlooked or underrated. However, head coaches like momentum.

826
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 3: Sports teams in general like momentum. It breeds confidence. So

827
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 3: the changes might not be wholesale, but it should be

828
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 3: a change lineup. But even so that change lineup for Portugal,

829
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 3: I mean, we're talking about a second string side that

830
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 3: would give the majority of nations in Germany a really,

831
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 3: really good game. So yeah, they may make some changes,

832
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 3: but the changes that will come in, for example, let's

833
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 3: say Ronaldo goes on the bench and Diego Juta comes in,

834
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 3: it's not too bad. And if we look at Georgia,

835
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 3: I just can't see them not conceding plenty of chances, Like, yeah,

836
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 3: Portugal might be rotated, but if we look at the stats,

837
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 3: where is it true? If we look at the starts,

838
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 3: so across the first two match days of Euro twenty

839
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 3: twenty four, Georgia more shots forty nine, more shots on

840
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: target twenty and a higher XG against figure six point

841
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 3: one than any other side in the competition. And Georgia

842
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 3: and Valenci's goalkeeper Mama Dasha really made more saves at

843
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 3: sixteen than anyone else in the competition. So if you

844
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 3: think that Portugal we're going to score here, which is

845
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 3: minus one two zero five, then Georgia really do have

846
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 3: to come out swinging even more so than they did previously.

847
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 3: That should really open the game up. We should see goals.

848
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 3: We probably should see something which has happened in both

849
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: of Portugal's games so far, which is Portugal winning over

850
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 3: two point five goals. In all honesty, this is a

851
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 3: bit of a lean for me. I just wanted to

852
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,399
Speaker 3: showcase where my thoughts are for this game. And it's

853
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 3: not one that's going to be an official punt, but

854
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 3: I touched on it a minute ago. So dependent on

855
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 3: whether Ronaldo plays or not and someone else is leading

856
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 3: the line. If it is a Doogo jutter, for example,

857
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,359
Speaker 3: that may be way in as well to the game.

858
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,760
Speaker 3: You can get on him at two point four zero,

859
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 3: what's starting plus one pole zero and it's on go score.

860
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 3: That could be a way into the game as well

861
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 3: if you weren't too sure about taking Portugal and over

862
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 3: two pol and five go. So that was my line

863
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,240
Speaker 3: of thinking. But yeah, it's probably a past for me overall.

864
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was I was considering taking Portugal on some

865
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 2: alts here because you know, you what you saw against

866
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 2: the Czech Republic with Georgia is we were all so

867
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: and you know, everybody was like praising them for how

868
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 2: brave they were and their first match gets Turkey, how

869
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 2: they didn't just sit back, how they took the onus

870
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,919
Speaker 2: to them, and they actually played with them for most

871
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 2: of the match. You see the other end of the

872
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 2: spectrum of when you have a low block, counter attacking

873
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 2: centric team that just decides we're going to play open,

874
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 2: we're gonna press, and we're just gonna take it to them.

875
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,479
Speaker 2: The negative of that is when you face a team

876
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 2: that's way better than you, you leave yourself incredibly open

877
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 2: for them to create a bunch of chances, which is

878
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 2: exactly what the Czech Republic did. I lost count how

879
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: many crosses they ended up ending in and completing in

880
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:08,360
Speaker 2: the penalty area against Georgia. But Portugal against Turkey just

881
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 2: didn't even like try to play through the middle. If

882
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 2: you go look at their past map, they were just

883
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 2: like trying to play around them and just try to

884
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 2: send and crosses and beat them that way. And honestly,

885
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 2: I didn't think they were that great against Turkey the

886
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 2: first time. You know, obviously got lucked into an uncle.

887
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 2: The first goal to Bernardo Silva was a deflection that

888
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: went right to him. So yeah, again, the problem with

889
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 2: a lot of these teams in this tournament and is

890
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,760
Speaker 2: that when you play a very passive, low defensive structure

891
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 2: and you're forced to come out of that, you leave

892
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,760
Speaker 2: yourself very open because you only have one style of play.

893
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 2: So that is the problem here for Georgia. So I

894
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 2: like Sam's angle on here. I was potentially looking at

895
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: over three also maybe a Portugal minus two somewhere in

896
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 2: that range. But yeah, with Portugal having nothing to play for,

897
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 2: it's kind of hard to get behind some type of

898
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 2: those those type of alt spreads. So I'm just going

899
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: to pass it le you know. But Ronaldo score hat

900
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 2: trick and ruin all the golden booths for everybody.

901
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:09,760
Speaker 1: Not a big call actually at all. Okay, that brings

902
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 1: us to the final match we'll talk about, which is

903
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 1: Turkey and Chechia on Wednesday at three pm Eastern time,

904
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: as well the Czech Republic or Czechia. They are plus

905
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 1: one fifty five, so slight favorites on the three way

906
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,359
Speaker 1: line Turkey plus one seventy five at bet three six

907
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: five they draw here is plus two forty. As I said, a,

908
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 1: Turkey's on three points, the Czech Republic are on one,

909
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 1: so it must win scenario for the Czech Republic and

910
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:43,240
Speaker 1: then if they they if Turkey loses and Georgia Palsey upset,

911
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: you know, they'd be out. So they're gonna kind of

912
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:49,760
Speaker 1: look at it as a must not lose situation for Turkey.

913
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: But I do think that neither like the these two

914
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 1: teams would be more comfortable playing the style that would

915
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: be fit the opposite right, Like, I think Turkey would

916
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 1: be the one the team that would want to go

917
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 1: out and grab something from the game, and the Czech

918
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: Republic would be the side that would be more comfortable,

919
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,240
Speaker 1: you know, sitting deep and trying to grind out a draw.

920
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: So I do think that there's maybe a little bit

921
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 1: of value on Turkey because I just don't trust the

922
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 1: Czech Republic's ability in this kind of situation to go

923
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 1: out be on the front foot pet needing a win

924
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 1: and then needing to keep Turkey off of it. So

925
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 1: this game should open up, and I just don't think

926
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:33,439
Speaker 1: that that is what the Czech Republic their skill set

927
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 1: will be. Would it would have been benefit them based

928
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 1: on their skill set. So I think maybe a little

929
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:40,879
Speaker 1: bit of value on Turkey on the money line here

930
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: to get the job done BJ. Yeah, they had a tough,

931
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,439
Speaker 1: tough go against Portugal, but I do think that there's

932
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 1: more to this side. There's more to this side story

933
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: in this tournament than just going out here in the

934
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:54,320
Speaker 1: group stage.

935
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the over two and a half goals

936
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 2: at minus one twenty. You mentioned it, So the check

937
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 2: public has to go for this, which I actually think

938
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 2: suits them pretty well because they are a transition based steam.

939
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 2: I know that they struggled in transition against Portugal. A

940
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 2: lot of that had to do ef fact they were

941
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 2: having to play a little block in transition from deep

942
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 2: but what you saw against Georgia is how capable and

943
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,840
Speaker 2: how good of a high pressing side they are. So

944
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 2: they ended up creating three expected goals, only scored once

945
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: against Georgia, but they had twenty eight high recoveries, which

946
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 2: is the most that anybody's had in this tournament so far,

947
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,720
Speaker 2: and with them having to be the one that goes

948
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 2: for it, and Turkey in a situation where you know,

949
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 2: as it's looking right now, three points and whatever goal

950
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: difference you have might actually be good enough to get

951
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 2: through here. I saw that Hungary even with a minus

952
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 2: three goal differential, with three points, has like a sixty

953
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 2: four percent chance of qualifying for the round of sixteen.

954
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 2: So obviously we're recording this on Monday before the Group

955
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 2: B matches, so they're going to know exactly what they

956
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 2: need to get to the round of sixteen. But Turkey

957
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 2: under Montella is a team that will at least start

958
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 2: their possessions from building out of the back. You saw

959
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: against Portugal early on they were trying to play a

960
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 2: lot of long balls over the top, which actually was

961
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 2: working for the first fifteen or so minutes, and then

962
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: obviously Portugal scored and they got the own goal and

963
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 2: they could just sit back and force Turkey to break

964
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: them down. But there's a match that I keep going

965
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 2: back to, and I know it was a friendly, and

966
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 2: you know, you don't take too much away from friendlies.

967
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 2: But Turkey played Austria in a friendly in March and

968
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 2: they lost six to one, primarily because they tried to

969
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 2: build out of the back and Austria just kept turning

970
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 2: them over and over and over again. The Czech public

971
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 2: is a really good pressing side, and they can do

972
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 2: the exact same thing here to Turkey. But the problem

973
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 2: with the Czech public that you also saw against Georgia

974
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 2: is that yes, they can press effectively effectively from the front,

975
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,879
Speaker 2: but once you beat the first, first, or second line

976
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 2: of pressure, there is just acres of space for you

977
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 2: to operate in transition, and Turkey has the technicians, the

978
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 2: ballcarriers and the passers to play through those first two

979
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 2: lines of pressure. The other problem here, I think for

980
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 2: Turkey is that they've been a little shaky defending crosses,

981
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,399
Speaker 2: which is pretty much the only way that the Czech

982
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:12,399
Speaker 2: public is going to create chances in this match. They've

983
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 2: allowed nineteen accurate crosses against both Georgia and Portugal. Six

984
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,359
Speaker 2: of those have been completed into the penalty area, which

985
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 2: is fifth most in the tournament. So I like over

986
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 2: two and f goals at minus one ten. I think

987
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 2: the chech public is going to make this really really chaotic,

988
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:28,879
Speaker 2: and the style that Turkey plays is going to play

989
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 2: into a transition basketball type of match, even though they

990
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: would just need to draw to get through to the

991
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 2: round of sixteen. And I think that over two and

992
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 2: f goals has quite a bit of value.

993
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, Turkey, you need just that point to qualify

994
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 3: from the Group Stags, as i'd BJ just said, and

995
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 3: what will be the first time since two thousand and

996
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 3: eight for the nation. But it's a fanatical country when

997
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 3: it comes to football. They're so passionate. I can't think

998
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 3: of many nations that live and breathe football or soccer. Actually,

999
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 3: isn't it. Sorry that's a small part. There's probably you

1000
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 3: wincing at that home. But anyway, regardless what you could say, soccer, football,

1001
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 3: we don't care. This is that right?

1002
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we don't care. I try to see I

1003
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 2: try to be proper sam and say football sometimes yeah yeah,

1004
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 2: I don't know. People see it all plays right like

1005
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 2: just they some Americans just to be like, you know,

1006
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 2: what's say soccer? But I try to, you know, call

1007
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 2: it what it should be, right, Yeah.

1008
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 3: Well, let's make up of it. Let's go with football.

1009
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 3: But regardless what it's called, like, the Turkish people population

1010
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 3: absolutely love it, so this will be massive for the country.

1011
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 3: So there is no chance that this Turkey side turns

1012
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 3: up and plays for a low score and draw. They'll

1013
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 3: think that they have enough to overcome this Czech Republic

1014
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,720
Speaker 3: side too, So I actually love the bet that BJ's

1015
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 3: part for this. They're going to go for it. They'll

1016
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 3: be gunning for all three points and they'll be aiming

1017
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 3: for that second spot in group, no doubts about it. Yeah,

1018
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 3: Turkey of the plus one seventy five slight underdogs are

1019
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 3: straight away. My thinking was to get Turkey on side somehow.

1020
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 3: It's so close to call. Really, this is definitely more

1021
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 3: of a lean than anything. They'll be pople listening and

1022
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 3: thinking I'll really fancy the check Republic here, and there'll

1023
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 3: be plenty more thinking I'll really fancy the draw. So

1024
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 3: if you look at Chech Republic, they created a lot

1025
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 3: of chances versus Georgia and it might be the same here.

1026
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 3: Probably not to the same degree, but they will have

1027
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:16,879
Speaker 3: their opportunities. On match day two, they managed four big

1028
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:20,799
Speaker 3: chances three point zero seven XG twenty seven shots, one goal. Now,

1029
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 3: you've got to be doing better than that. That was

1030
00:51:22,920 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 3: the most shots and the highest XG any side is

1031
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 3: recorded in a single game across the tournament in the

1032
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 3: opening two match days. Now, I feel like this has

1033
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 3: the opportunity, with both sides going for a win, of

1034
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 3: having a similar kind of feel to the Georgia versus

1035
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 3: Turkey fixture. It won't be as chaotic, although I would

1036
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 3: like to see it, but there should be spells of

1037
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 3: it being end to end chances in quick succession, the

1038
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 3: game being finally balanced for periods. And I've said all that,

1039
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 3: and to be honest, I think I've started to lean

1040
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 3: more towards BJ's over two point five goals bick, but

1041
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 3: I am going to put Turkey forward on the zero

1042
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 3: point zero Asian line. It's more of a lean, but

1043
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 3: you can get that plus one hundred, which I thought

1044
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 3: was pretty good with the draw on side in terms

1045
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 3: of refunds. Cool, So all of.

1046
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: A sudden, the same side basically of a which should

1047
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 1: be a fun one here. Open match. I like Turkey

1048
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 1: as well. That brings us to our underdog parlay eight

1049
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 1: matches to go from to pick from here, so we

1050
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:25,280
Speaker 1: decided to bring it back for this episode. Anything better

1051
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 1: than two to one can be chucked in here to

1052
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: give us a pretty big payout. Beaja, you can get

1053
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 1: us started.

1054
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: Austria plus two eighty against the Netherlands, I think Ralph

1055
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:38,279
Speaker 2: Ragnick is going to take come into school here. They

1056
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 2: are going to press their build up. They are going

1057
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 2: to be really effective at forcing those high turn rubbers

1058
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 2: and even if they don't, they're going to force the

1059
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: Netherlands into a lot of long balls that they are

1060
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 2: very capable defending. Fourth lowest long ball completion rate allowed

1061
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 2: so far in this tournament. They're a really good transition side.

1062
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: Netherlands by nature wants to be a build out of

1063
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 2: the back possession dominant type team, but if they're forcing

1064
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 2: this trend uition, back and forth type of match, it's

1065
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:05,319
Speaker 2: gonna suit Austria very well. So I like them pull

1066
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 2: off the upset of plus two eighty.

1067
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Slovenia on the first half money

1068
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 1: line at eight to one against England, I think there's

1069
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 1: gonna be tons and tons of pressure on England to

1070
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 1: come out and play with a little bit more risk

1071
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 1: and abandon in their game. I think that could leave

1072
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 1: them vulnerable in the back. They've been really good defensively

1073
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 1: for quite a while under Garas Southgate. But if they

1074
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: do take some more risks and leave themselves open to

1075
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 1: a Slovenia side that has shown some counter chat attacking chops,

1076
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: I think that we could see the Slovenians go into

1077
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 1: the break with a lead, hopefully one nil, cash that

1078
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 1: eight to one. I don't know if they'll be able

1079
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: to keep it up over ninety minutes, so I'm going

1080
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,360
Speaker 1: to shorten this one. Try to get Slovenia to the

1081
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: break ahead and cash this eight to one. Sam, what

1082
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: about you?

1083
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 3: I'm going for no go score up plus four fifty

1084
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 3: and Romania of Slovakia. So this is huge for both nations.

1085
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 3: A draw takes both into the knockouts. I'd expect Romania

1086
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,240
Speaker 3: to sit in Slovakia to knock it around for large spells,

1087
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 3: but in a game where naither need to score, it

1088
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:07,720
Speaker 3: just makes sense to side with this as an underdog punt.

1089
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,000
Speaker 3: There won't be much risk taking. Why would there be

1090
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,399
Speaker 3: if it ends no nail. Both of these teams, who

1091
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,760
Speaker 3: are strangers to the knockout stages of a major tournament.

1092
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 3: Like I said, they can lock arms and skip gleefully

1093
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 3: towards the round of sixteen or four points under their belt,

1094
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 3: grinning from ear to ear. So yeah, romain of a

1095
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 3: Slovakia no goal scorer.

1096
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 1: Okay, if all three of those legs come through for us,

1097
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,240
Speaker 1: we're looking at one hundred and eighty seven to one,

1098
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 1: which brings us to our favorite bets for the round.

1099
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 1: If you had to pick one BJ what would you

1100
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 1: go with?

1101
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 2: Check Republic Turkey over two and a half goals at

1102
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 2: minus one twenty. This should be a very fun, chaotic,

1103
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,399
Speaker 2: back and forth type match. The Czech Republic needs three

1104
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,240
Speaker 2: points to get to the round of sixteen, whereas Turkey

1105
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 2: will be just fine with a draw to get there.

1106
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,760
Speaker 2: But the Czech Republic by nature is a high pressing,

1107
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 2: high intensity, transition based team. Turkey under Mantella is a

1108
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 2: team that won to build out of the back, but

1109
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 2: likes to turn that into a transition opportunity. So it's

1110
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 2: going to create a very back and forth basketball type match.

1111
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,440
Speaker 2: But Turkey really hasn't been a very good build out

1112
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 2: of the back type of team. They've actually turned the

1113
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:12,280
Speaker 2: ball over quite a bit leading up into this tournament.

1114
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 2: The Czech Republic had twenty eight high recoveries against Georgia.

1115
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 2: That's the most anybody's had so far in this entire tournament.

1116
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 2: They created well over three expected goals but only found

1117
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 2: the back of the net once. So I think we're

1118
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 2: going to see a very up and down type of

1119
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 2: match here. Second place in the group is gonna be

1120
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 2: very vital. But I think we're going to see a

1121
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: lot of goals here. So like over two and a

1122
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 2: half at minus one.

1123
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 1: Ten, I'm gonna do it. I'm going to go with

1124
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 1: our man Ramululukaku to score two goals against the Ukraine.

1125
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: He's five to one. Lukaku's had three goals just allowed already.

1126
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:48,319
Speaker 1: If he took all his expected goals both pre and

1127
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 1: post bar reviews, he'd be lapping the field in that category.

1128
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:55,359
Speaker 1: He has more goals waved off than any player has

1129
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 1: scored in this actually scored in this tournament. It's absurd.

1130
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 1: At some point the damn ship. Maybe it'll be in

1131
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:03,439
Speaker 1: September when he's back in the Premier League or something,

1132
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 1: but I'm hopefully, I'm hoping it will come against the Ukraine.

1133
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: Where against Ukraine and Wednesday, so five to one on

1134
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 1: Nukaku to score two plus for Belgium, Sam.

1135
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 3: What do you got England to win? And under four

1136
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 3: goals are minus one eleven. So England are looking to

1137
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 3: go through a fourth consecutive YUAA euro Group stage unbeaten.

1138
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:28,319
Speaker 3: This is what they do under Gareth Southgate. They are

1139
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 3: masters of progressing to the knockouts with minimal fuss. We

1140
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 3: can get caught up, especially over here in England in

1141
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:37,240
Speaker 3: like the levels of performance and how we're not blowing

1142
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,840
Speaker 3: teams away when we should, and that includes myself, but

1143
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 3: Gareth Southgates England are brilliant at this stage, even if

1144
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 3: it's not too easy on the eem. We mentioned it

1145
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 3: earlier in the pod after match day two. Only Scotland

1146
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 3: have recorded fewer expected goals than England's one point four

1147
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:55,280
Speaker 3: in the two games, but no nation has conceded fewer

1148
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 3: expected goals than England's one point zero x G. So

1149
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 3: I'm exhuming it'll be more a the same here. It

1150
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 3: will be very very England to win this one two

1151
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 3: nil two one perfect.

1152
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 1: All right, that wraps up this episode of Wonder Girl.

1153
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 1: We will be back ahead of the Round of sixteen

1154
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 1: BG and I will continue to cover corporate America as well.

1155
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 1: Scattered too out there but until we get to there.

1156
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 1: Thank you to our sponsors BET three sixty five, to

1157
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: our producer Noah, thank you for listening and rating, reviewing, subscribing.

1158
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 1: Best of luck everybody as we bring the group stage

1159
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 1: to a close. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1160
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1161
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1162
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:44,560
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