Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The S and
Speaker 1: P Supercomposite, Hotels, Restaurants and leisure industry index its down
Speaker 1: slightly with a little bit of movement today up about
Speaker 1: thirteen percent year today. It's really timpin bouncing around this
Speaker 1: year depending on pandemic headlines. Uh, and what's going on
Speaker 1: in terms of certainly COVID and the variance. Well, let's
Speaker 1: get an update on really how the industry is feeling.
Speaker 1: Let's talk to Julia Simpson, chief executive officer of w
Speaker 1: t TC, that's the World Travel in Tourism Council. She
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from London. Julia, how are you? Oh, hello, Tim,
Speaker 1: Hello Carol, I'm joining you from a very chilly London. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Well it's a chili New York here today as well.
Speaker 1: So we are certainly thinking about tourism and vacation. But hey,
Speaker 1: you know, we heard Doug Christners just talk about today's
Speaker 1: decline in the markets and how investors are really trying
Speaker 1: to make sense of the omicron variant and when certainly
Speaker 1: you have a seat at the front of when it
Speaker 1: comes to the what governments are doing in London at
Speaker 1: least and in the UK. Hey give us an idea
Speaker 1: of of of really how the travel industry is dealing
Speaker 1: with it, because it's still the early days. It is
Speaker 1: it is still the early days, Tim, I mean the
Speaker 1: Well Traveling Tourism Council. We look at the global impact
Speaker 1: on travel and tourism by the pandemic and we represent
Speaker 1: about two hundreds of the top CEOs and chairman in
Speaker 1: travel and tourism from cruise to hotels. So we get
Speaker 1: we talked to people on the regular basism and we
Speaker 1: get a good idea. I mean, just to put it
Speaker 1: into context, the pandemic really really hit travel and tourism
Speaker 1: as a sector um. Probably while global GDP went down
Speaker 1: maybe about five point four percent in travel and tourism,
Speaker 1: we were hit by nearly fifty percent. So an industry
Speaker 1: that was worth nine trillion dollars globally was cut down
Speaker 1: to about four point six billion. That's last year. Now,
Speaker 1: we do a lot of researcher economic research with Oxford Economics,
Speaker 1: and we'd be charting where this might go to. And
Speaker 1: I'm going to give you some us again in a minute,
Speaker 1: But pre the latest strain of covid um, we were
Speaker 1: looking at getting back to maybe globally eighty percent recovery
Speaker 1: if there aren't further restrictions by the end of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two. UM. In the US, actually the picture is
Speaker 1: looking a bit brighter UM. TIM. The the actual value
Speaker 1: of traveling tourism to the US pre the pandemic, taking
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen as a baseline, was about one point eight
Speaker 1: billion dollars. You took slightly less of a hit at
Speaker 1: around minds forty one in twenty that's mostly because of
Speaker 1: the strength of your domestic travel and tourism market, and
Speaker 1: so you sort of got sliced down to about one
Speaker 1: point one billion dollars. Now. The good news is UM
Speaker 1: this year you're expected to grow slightly ahead of the
Speaker 1: global picture by about thirty six percent, So that's slightly better.
Speaker 1: And then if things were to continue and this I
Speaker 1: think there's big messages for governments here, but if things
Speaker 1: were to continue benignly or in the way we're seeing
Speaker 1: them now, you could get back to actually in a
Speaker 1: good time exceed in your pre pandemic g d P.
Speaker 1: Well you do. That's the kind of numbers if you like, right, Julia,
Speaker 1: and you do think about the pent up demand, because
Speaker 1: you know, people can't can't retake the trips that they
Speaker 1: missed during the pandemic, but they can certainly go out
Speaker 1: and take a talent rims once they feel confident about
Speaker 1: moving forward. You mentioned government, I mean, the w TTC
Speaker 1: works with governments to raise issues and some of the
Speaker 1: industry's concerns when it comes to travel and leisure. What
Speaker 1: are or what is the top one or two concerns
Speaker 1: of the industry right now that you all are bringing
Speaker 1: to global government officials. Yeah, exactly, we've been really sing
Speaker 1: the government's globally. First of all, a total lack of
Speaker 1: international coordination surrounding travel within the pandemic. You understand, when
Speaker 1: a pandemic hits the country, governments naturally look inwards. They're
Speaker 1: worried about their own citizens. This is completely natural and normal.
Speaker 1: But as we sort of look up above the parapet
Speaker 1: and reach hands across the ocean, again with the severe
Speaker 1: lack of international coordination in terms of you know, what
Speaker 1: is accepted and what the rules are. So that's one problem.
Speaker 1: Another problem is we see these severe travel restrictions suddenly
Speaker 1: coming down So I'll give you a really good example.
Speaker 1: When the new variant was identified in South Africa, a
Speaker 1: lot of countries immediately left to barring anybody from certain
Speaker 1: countries in the southern part of Africa coming to Europe
Speaker 1: and coming to other parts of the world. But the
Speaker 1: irony is that the very own World Health Organization w
Speaker 1: h O as we call it, um they were saying, yeah,
Speaker 1: it was a variant of concern, but they said that
Speaker 1: closing truants has absolutely no impact and they shouldn't be
Speaker 1: doing it. And the economic costs of livelihoods and people
Speaker 1: can actually far outstrip the impact of the pandemics. So
Speaker 1: lack of coordination, severe travel restrictions, and also obviously the
Speaker 1: golden the golden bullet he or the silver bullet is
Speaker 1: the vaccination levels. You know, sooner we can get the
Speaker 1: world vaccinated, it can all get vaccinated. That is our
Speaker 1: greatest um uh you know, prevention to this illness. So yeah,
Speaker 1: just in about a minute and a half, what is
Speaker 1: going on in landing because we all were watching the
Speaker 1: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson his press conference yesterday and
Speaker 1: covid takening of restrictions once again in the UK, mandating
Speaker 1: masks encouraging homeworking. Um, what are you hearing from your
Speaker 1: members of your community about that specifically and London specifically,
Speaker 1: because I know you're concerned about those those travel restrictions. Yes. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: the good news for travel and tourism is there haven't
Speaker 1: been any further restrictions that are emanating from the UK government.
Speaker 1: So I think they've recognized what I was saying earlier
Speaker 1: that once variant of this of COVID is actually in
Speaker 1: your community, it's absolutely pointless trying to put in front.
Speaker 1: Is so good news for travel and tourism. No, no
Speaker 1: further restrictions there, which is great. Um. I think what
Speaker 1: they want to do is to try and restrict a
Speaker 1: little bit gatherings of people. And they're saying that you
Speaker 1: can go to work if you you have to be
Speaker 1: there in person, but if you can find an alternative
Speaker 1: and work from home. They're just saying for a period
Speaker 1: because as we know that the latest variants seems to
Speaker 1: be slightly more infectious and travel faster. Um, So they're
Speaker 1: just being cautious. I think it's more cautious than dramatic,
Speaker 1: if I'm completely honest, because life is still carrying on
Speaker 1: pretty normally. You know, I can get on the metro,
Speaker 1: the underground tubes and try do people wear masks on
Speaker 1: the underground, you wear masks, So that's what you do
Speaker 1: on public, on any kind of transport, you wear a mask. Well,
Speaker 1: if you go into a shop, football stadiums. In fact,
Speaker 1: I'm going to see you what we call it soccer
Speaker 1: here my soccer. I'm going to a soccer matcher this
Speaker 1: weekend and I will be able to join you know
Speaker 1: a lot of tens of thousands of people, but I'd
Speaker 1: be wearing a mask, and I'm probably going to be
Speaker 1: for my COVID vaccination certificate. We're gonna come back with
Speaker 1: Julia Simpson, she's president CEO at the w TTC World
Speaker 1: Travel and Tourism Council. Will continue this conversation right here
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg. Let's get right back to Julia Simpson, CEO
Speaker 1: of w TTC. That's World Travel and Tourism Council. It's
Speaker 1: an organization of global business leaders that includes the chairs,
Speaker 1: presidents and CEOs of top tourism and travel companies. Carnival
Speaker 1: Corporation CEO Arnold Donald is among the chairs, and Julia
Speaker 1: Simpson is the CEO Julia. You before you had this role,
Speaker 1: you were at I a G. Or Internet On Airlines Group.
Speaker 1: It's the parent company of British Airways, Iberia aer Linguists Welling,
Speaker 1: And it was just a few months ago that you
Speaker 1: that you left that company. And I want you to
Speaker 1: take us back to March when the world fell apart
Speaker 1: because of COVID, but also international travel in domestic travel
Speaker 1: just dried up. Take us back to what it was
Speaker 1: like to be at a large airline. Yeah, well it was.
Speaker 1: It was pretty horrific really, to be honest with you,
Speaker 1: because we actually saw all business almost come to a standstill.
Speaker 1: And I think aviation is very adaptable and it's very
Speaker 1: good at dealing with crisis. I mean, it's obviously had
Speaker 1: the most tragic and horrendous crisis of nine eleven, but
Speaker 1: then you know, we've had financial crisis and we're really,
Speaker 1: really resilient. And what I thought was great about I
Speaker 1: a G. Is, you know, we made sure that we
Speaker 1: had good, strong capital behind us. And I'm not, you know,
Speaker 1: up to date with all their numbers now, but I
Speaker 1: know that you know, when I was there, there was
Speaker 1: ten billions u UK sterling in the bank and we
Speaker 1: made sure that we we we make sure that were
Speaker 1: resilient with stand this. So it's a very very resilient
Speaker 1: company and it will come through it. And since the
Speaker 1: US has opened up, we've seen enormous pent up demand
Speaker 1: exactly as Carrol we're saying earlier, you know, the Brits
Speaker 1: and the US and the EU. People from Europe traveling
Speaker 1: to the States has really really taken off. And a
Speaker 1: big message. I mean I was speaking to a key
Speaker 1: leader in in airports in the US today and they
Speaker 1: think that such pent up demands we could actually see,
Speaker 1: you know, a succeeding two numbers. Little message we must ensure.
Speaker 1: You know, we have these wonderful border staff at our
Speaker 1: borders in the US and in the UK, but as
Speaker 1: these numbers grow, I think we're going to need more people.
Speaker 1: Um it's a little warning so that we don't get
Speaker 1: too much chaos. That the airport we value very much,
Speaker 1: but we need more of them. Julie, I know there's
Speaker 1: so much pent up demand for international travel and for
Speaker 1: travel when it comes to tourism, but what about when
Speaker 1: it comes to business. Does business travel ever get back
Speaker 1: to what it was before the pandemic. We're talking to
Speaker 1: David Rubinstein of the Carlisle Group yesterday and he said
Speaker 1: he doesn't necessarily see himself returning to flying somewhere for
Speaker 1: a one hour meeting with somebody. Yeah, I think it's true.
Speaker 1: I think it's true that business travel is going to lag.
Speaker 1: We've always always seen that. But at the w TTC
Speaker 1: we've done some business report recently and interestingly, while the
Speaker 1: area of Asia Pacific, you know, Australia, Japan, um in China,
Speaker 1: they are actually coming out of their COVID travel restrictions
Speaker 1: for leisure travel slower. When that list, we are expecting
Speaker 1: them to rebound in business actually before everybody else. So
Speaker 1: I think it will come back. And while I do
Speaker 1: respect the fact that we are getting used to doing
Speaker 1: a lot of meetings with Zoom, it's fine when you
Speaker 1: know your team and you know people, but when you
Speaker 1: need to forge new business or business maybe has got
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, dollar signed zeros behind it,
Speaker 1: it's really important that you do those deals in person.
Speaker 1: And so I love love Zoom for when I'm talking
Speaker 1: to my team and people I know, But if I'm
Speaker 1: going to if I'm going to seal a big deal,
Speaker 1: I'm going to need to be able to do that
Speaker 1: in purpose in person, So I think it would be slower,
Speaker 1: but I think it will come back. Do you. I
Speaker 1: love that you you know, the CEOs of the travel
Speaker 1: and tourism companies of the world, they're all on are
Speaker 1: all a part of your organization. You mentioned talking with
Speaker 1: a CEO just earlier today. When you look at the
Speaker 1: different sectors, whether it's hotels where there, it's airlines, whether
Speaker 1: it's cruise lines, restaurants, I mean, all of this plays
Speaker 1: into it. Um does what do Is there any consensus
Speaker 1: about the outlook generally and what about geographically the outlook
Speaker 1: going forward? Yeah, I mean absolutely. And it's interesting because
Speaker 1: in the US, you know, you lost we lost five
Speaker 1: point five million jobs when when the pandemic struck from
Speaker 1: travel and tourism and hospitality, and hopefully, if things carry
Speaker 1: on opening up, we're going to get those back. And
Speaker 1: we you know, we should get be able to get
Speaker 1: back to at least sixteen point five million people employed
Speaker 1: employed in the sector. So it's a massive sector. And
Speaker 1: the trends we are seeing in the US is that
Speaker 1: there is the pent up demand exactly as you said, Carol,
Speaker 1: and as long as more restrictions are not put in place,
Speaker 1: then you know, we could be seeing the kind of
Speaker 1: GDP of travel and tourism in the US get up
Speaker 1: to one point nine billion by the end of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two and jobs, as I say, you know, well
Speaker 1: over sixteen and one and a half half a million.
Speaker 1: So I think that's really really important. The US is
Speaker 1: doing well, China's doing well. You've got to remember that
Speaker 1: a lot of the buoyancy in the US was reliant
Speaker 1: a lot on domestic travel. We saw Thanksgiving that went
Speaker 1: very well. The airlines everybody coped really well, which was fantastic.
Speaker 1: But it's getting those international visitors back and that's work
Speaker 1: for because you know, it is worth sort of a
Speaker 1: millions of dollars so um. And then I think Asia
Speaker 1: Pacific will open up a bit later, but I think businesswise,
Speaker 1: Asia Pacific will probably rebound faster. Yeah, we've ever been
Speaker 1: looking for it on the street to New York City
Speaker 1: in terms of m cities to walking on the cities
Speaker 1: and hearing lots of different languages and seeing people from
Speaker 1: all over, and it's definitely been something we have missed
Speaker 1: during the pandema. People are just yelling at me in English.
Speaker 1: New York City, Julia, Julia, have a great and safe
Speaker 1: and happy holiday season, so nice to catch up with you.
Speaker 1: Julia Simpson, she's President CEO of the w TTC World
Speaker 1: Travel and Tourism Council, joining us on the phone from London,