WEBVTT - Easing Restrictions Benefiting Travel Industry

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The S and

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<v Speaker 1>P Supercomposite, Hotels, Restaurants and leisure industry index its down

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<v Speaker 1>slightly with a little bit of movement today up about

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<v Speaker 1>thirteen percent year today. It's really timpin bouncing around this

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<v Speaker 1>year depending on pandemic headlines. Uh, and what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of certainly COVID and the variance. Well, let's

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<v Speaker 1>get an update on really how the industry is feeling.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk to Julia Simpson, chief executive officer of w

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<v Speaker 1>t TC, that's the World Travel in Tourism Council. She

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from London. Julia, how are you? Oh, hello, Tim,

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<v Speaker 1>Hello Carol, I'm joining you from a very chilly London. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Well it's a chili New York here today as well.

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<v Speaker 1>So we are certainly thinking about tourism and vacation. But hey,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we heard Doug Christners just talk about today's

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<v Speaker 1>decline in the markets and how investors are really trying

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<v Speaker 1>to make sense of the omicron variant and when certainly

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<v Speaker 1>you have a seat at the front of when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to the what governments are doing in London at

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<v Speaker 1>least and in the UK. Hey give us an idea

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<v Speaker 1>of of of really how the travel industry is dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with it, because it's still the early days. It is

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<v Speaker 1>it is still the early days, Tim, I mean the

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<v Speaker 1>Well Traveling Tourism Council. We look at the global impact

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<v Speaker 1>on travel and tourism by the pandemic and we represent

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<v Speaker 1>about two hundreds of the top CEOs and chairman in

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<v Speaker 1>travel and tourism from cruise to hotels. So we get

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<v Speaker 1>we talked to people on the regular basism and we

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<v Speaker 1>get a good idea. I mean, just to put it

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<v Speaker 1>into context, the pandemic really really hit travel and tourism

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<v Speaker 1>as a sector um. Probably while global GDP went down

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<v Speaker 1>maybe about five point four percent in travel and tourism,

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<v Speaker 1>we were hit by nearly fifty percent. So an industry

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<v Speaker 1>that was worth nine trillion dollars globally was cut down

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<v Speaker 1>to about four point six billion. That's last year. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>we do a lot of researcher economic research with Oxford Economics,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'd be charting where this might go to. And

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to give you some us again in a minute,

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<v Speaker 1>But pre the latest strain of covid um, we were

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<v Speaker 1>looking at getting back to maybe globally eighty percent recovery

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<v Speaker 1>if there aren't further restrictions by the end of twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two. UM. In the US, actually the picture is

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<v Speaker 1>looking a bit brighter UM. TIM. The the actual value

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<v Speaker 1>of traveling tourism to the US pre the pandemic, taking

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nineteen as a baseline, was about one point eight

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars. You took slightly less of a hit at

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<v Speaker 1>around minds forty one in twenty that's mostly because of

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<v Speaker 1>the strength of your domestic travel and tourism market, and

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<v Speaker 1>so you sort of got sliced down to about one

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<v Speaker 1>point one billion dollars. Now. The good news is UM

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<v Speaker 1>this year you're expected to grow slightly ahead of the

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<v Speaker 1>global picture by about thirty six percent, So that's slightly better.

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<v Speaker 1>And then if things were to continue and this I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's big messages for governments here, but if things

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<v Speaker 1>were to continue benignly or in the way we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>them now, you could get back to actually in a

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<v Speaker 1>good time exceed in your pre pandemic g d P.

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<v Speaker 1>Well you do. That's the kind of numbers if you like, right, Julia,

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<v Speaker 1>and you do think about the pent up demand, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, people can't can't retake the trips that they

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<v Speaker 1>missed during the pandemic, but they can certainly go out

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<v Speaker 1>and take a talent rims once they feel confident about

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<v Speaker 1>moving forward. You mentioned government, I mean, the w TTC

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<v Speaker 1>works with governments to raise issues and some of the

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<v Speaker 1>industry's concerns when it comes to travel and leisure. What

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<v Speaker 1>are or what is the top one or two concerns

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<v Speaker 1>of the industry right now that you all are bringing

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<v Speaker 1>to global government officials. Yeah, exactly, we've been really sing

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<v Speaker 1>the government's globally. First of all, a total lack of

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<v Speaker 1>international coordination surrounding travel within the pandemic. You understand, when

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<v Speaker 1>a pandemic hits the country, governments naturally look inwards. They're

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<v Speaker 1>worried about their own citizens. This is completely natural and normal.

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<v Speaker 1>But as we sort of look up above the parapet

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<v Speaker 1>and reach hands across the ocean, again with the severe

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<v Speaker 1>lack of international coordination in terms of you know, what

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<v Speaker 1>is accepted and what the rules are. So that's one problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Another problem is we see these severe travel restrictions suddenly

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<v Speaker 1>coming down So I'll give you a really good example.

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<v Speaker 1>When the new variant was identified in South Africa, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of countries immediately left to barring anybody from certain

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<v Speaker 1>countries in the southern part of Africa coming to Europe

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<v Speaker 1>and coming to other parts of the world. But the

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<v Speaker 1>irony is that the very own World Health Organization w

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<v Speaker 1>h O as we call it, um they were saying, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a variant of concern, but they said that

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<v Speaker 1>closing truants has absolutely no impact and they shouldn't be

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<v Speaker 1>doing it. And the economic costs of livelihoods and people

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<v Speaker 1>can actually far outstrip the impact of the pandemics. So

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<v Speaker 1>lack of coordination, severe travel restrictions, and also obviously the

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<v Speaker 1>golden the golden bullet he or the silver bullet is

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccination levels. You know, sooner we can get the

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<v Speaker 1>world vaccinated, it can all get vaccinated. That is our

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<v Speaker 1>greatest um uh you know, prevention to this illness. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>just in about a minute and a half, what is

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<v Speaker 1>going on in landing because we all were watching the

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<v Speaker 1>UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson his press conference yesterday and

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<v Speaker 1>covid takening of restrictions once again in the UK, mandating

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<v Speaker 1>masks encouraging homeworking. Um, what are you hearing from your

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<v Speaker 1>members of your community about that specifically and London specifically,

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<v Speaker 1>because I know you're concerned about those those travel restrictions. Yes. Absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>the good news for travel and tourism is there haven't

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<v Speaker 1>been any further restrictions that are emanating from the UK government.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think they've recognized what I was saying earlier

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<v Speaker 1>that once variant of this of COVID is actually in

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<v Speaker 1>your community, it's absolutely pointless trying to put in front.

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<v Speaker 1>Is so good news for travel and tourism. No, no

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<v Speaker 1>further restrictions there, which is great. Um. I think what

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<v Speaker 1>they want to do is to try and restrict a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit gatherings of people. And they're saying that you

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<v Speaker 1>can go to work if you you have to be

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<v Speaker 1>there in person, but if you can find an alternative

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<v Speaker 1>and work from home. They're just saying for a period

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<v Speaker 1>because as we know that the latest variants seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be slightly more infectious and travel faster. Um, So they're

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<v Speaker 1>just being cautious. I think it's more cautious than dramatic,

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<v Speaker 1>if I'm completely honest, because life is still carrying on

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<v Speaker 1>pretty normally. You know, I can get on the metro,

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<v Speaker 1>the underground tubes and try do people wear masks on

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<v Speaker 1>the underground, you wear masks, So that's what you do

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<v Speaker 1>on public, on any kind of transport, you wear a mask. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if you go into a shop, football stadiums. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to see you what we call it soccer

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<v Speaker 1>here my soccer. I'm going to a soccer matcher this

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<v Speaker 1>weekend and I will be able to join you know

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of tens of thousands of people, but I'd

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<v Speaker 1>be wearing a mask, and I'm probably going to be

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<v Speaker 1>for my COVID vaccination certificate. We're gonna come back with

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<v Speaker 1>Julia Simpson, she's president CEO at the w TTC World

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<v Speaker 1>Travel and Tourism Council. Will continue this conversation right here

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg. Let's get right back to Julia Simpson, CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of w TTC. That's World Travel and Tourism Council. It's

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<v Speaker 1>an organization of global business leaders that includes the chairs,

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<v Speaker 1>presidents and CEOs of top tourism and travel companies. Carnival

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<v Speaker 1>Corporation CEO Arnold Donald is among the chairs, and Julia

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<v Speaker 1>Simpson is the CEO Julia. You before you had this role,

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<v Speaker 1>you were at I a G. Or Internet On Airlines Group.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the parent company of British Airways, Iberia aer Linguists Welling,

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<v Speaker 1>And it was just a few months ago that you

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<v Speaker 1>that you left that company. And I want you to

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<v Speaker 1>take us back to March when the world fell apart

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<v Speaker 1>because of COVID, but also international travel in domestic travel

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<v Speaker 1>just dried up. Take us back to what it was

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<v Speaker 1>like to be at a large airline. Yeah, well it was.

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<v Speaker 1>It was pretty horrific really, to be honest with you,

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<v Speaker 1>because we actually saw all business almost come to a standstill.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think aviation is very adaptable and it's very

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<v Speaker 1>good at dealing with crisis. I mean, it's obviously had

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<v Speaker 1>the most tragic and horrendous crisis of nine eleven, but

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<v Speaker 1>then you know, we've had financial crisis and we're really,

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<v Speaker 1>really resilient. And what I thought was great about I

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<v Speaker 1>a G. Is, you know, we made sure that we

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<v Speaker 1>had good, strong capital behind us. And I'm not, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>up to date with all their numbers now, but I

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<v Speaker 1>know that you know, when I was there, there was

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<v Speaker 1>ten billions u UK sterling in the bank and we

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<v Speaker 1>made sure that we we we make sure that were

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<v Speaker 1>resilient with stand this. So it's a very very resilient

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<v Speaker 1>company and it will come through it. And since the

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<v Speaker 1>US has opened up, we've seen enormous pent up demand

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<v Speaker 1>exactly as Carrol we're saying earlier, you know, the Brits

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<v Speaker 1>and the US and the EU. People from Europe traveling

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<v Speaker 1>to the States has really really taken off. And a

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<v Speaker 1>big message. I mean I was speaking to a key

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<v Speaker 1>leader in in airports in the US today and they

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<v Speaker 1>think that such pent up demands we could actually see,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a succeeding two numbers. Little message we must ensure.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we have these wonderful border staff at our

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<v Speaker 1>borders in the US and in the UK, but as

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<v Speaker 1>these numbers grow, I think we're going to need more people.

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<v Speaker 1>Um it's a little warning so that we don't get

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<v Speaker 1>too much chaos. That the airport we value very much,

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<v Speaker 1>but we need more of them. Julie, I know there's

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<v Speaker 1>so much pent up demand for international travel and for

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<v Speaker 1>travel when it comes to tourism, but what about when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to business. Does business travel ever get back

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<v Speaker 1>to what it was before the pandemic. We're talking to

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<v Speaker 1>David Rubinstein of the Carlisle Group yesterday and he said

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't necessarily see himself returning to flying somewhere for

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<v Speaker 1>a one hour meeting with somebody. Yeah, I think it's true.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's true that business travel is going to lag.

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<v Speaker 1>We've always always seen that. But at the w TTC

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<v Speaker 1>we've done some business report recently and interestingly, while the

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<v Speaker 1>area of Asia Pacific, you know, Australia, Japan, um in China,

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<v Speaker 1>they are actually coming out of their COVID travel restrictions

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<v Speaker 1>for leisure travel slower. When that list, we are expecting

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<v Speaker 1>them to rebound in business actually before everybody else. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think it will come back. And while I do

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<v Speaker 1>respect the fact that we are getting used to doing

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of meetings with Zoom, it's fine when you

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<v Speaker 1>know your team and you know people, but when you

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<v Speaker 1>need to forge new business or business maybe has got

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of you know, dollar signed zeros behind it,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really important that you do those deals in person.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I love love Zoom for when I'm talking

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<v Speaker 1>to my team and people I know, But if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to if I'm going to seal a big deal,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to need to be able to do that

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<v Speaker 1>in purpose in person, So I think it would be slower,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think it will come back. Do you. I

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<v Speaker 1>love that you you know, the CEOs of the travel

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<v Speaker 1>and tourism companies of the world, they're all on are

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<v Speaker 1>all a part of your organization. You mentioned talking with

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<v Speaker 1>a CEO just earlier today. When you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>different sectors, whether it's hotels where there, it's airlines, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's cruise lines, restaurants, I mean, all of this plays

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<v Speaker 1>into it. Um does what do Is there any consensus

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<v Speaker 1>about the outlook generally and what about geographically the outlook

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<v Speaker 1>going forward? Yeah, I mean absolutely. And it's interesting because

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<v Speaker 1>in the US, you know, you lost we lost five

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<v Speaker 1>point five million jobs when when the pandemic struck from

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<v Speaker 1>travel and tourism and hospitality, and hopefully, if things carry

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<v Speaker 1>on opening up, we're going to get those back. And

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<v Speaker 1>we you know, we should get be able to get

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<v Speaker 1>back to at least sixteen point five million people employed

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<v Speaker 1>employed in the sector. So it's a massive sector. And

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<v Speaker 1>the trends we are seeing in the US is that

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<v Speaker 1>there is the pent up demand exactly as you said, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>and as long as more restrictions are not put in place,

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<v Speaker 1>then you know, we could be seeing the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>GDP of travel and tourism in the US get up

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<v Speaker 1>to one point nine billion by the end of twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two and jobs, as I say, you know, well

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<v Speaker 1>over sixteen and one and a half half a million.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that's really really important. The US is

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<v Speaker 1>doing well, China's doing well. You've got to remember that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the buoyancy in the US was reliant

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<v Speaker 1>a lot on domestic travel. We saw Thanksgiving that went

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<v Speaker 1>very well. The airlines everybody coped really well, which was fantastic.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's getting those international visitors back and that's work

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<v Speaker 1>for because you know, it is worth sort of a

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<v Speaker 1>millions of dollars so um. And then I think Asia

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<v Speaker 1>Pacific will open up a bit later, but I think businesswise,

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<v Speaker 1>Asia Pacific will probably rebound faster. Yeah, we've ever been

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<v Speaker 1>looking for it on the street to New York City

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of m cities to walking on the cities

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:02.880
<v Speaker 1>and hearing lots of different languages and seeing people from

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<v Speaker 1>all over, and it's definitely been something we have missed

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<v Speaker 1>during the pandema. People are just yelling at me in English.

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<v Speaker 1>New York City, Julia, Julia, have a great and safe

0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>and happy holiday season, so nice to catch up with you.

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<v Speaker 1>Julia Simpson, she's President CEO of the w TTC World

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<v Speaker 1>Travel and Tourism Council, joining us on the phone from London,