WEBVTT - Tariffs, Tax Rates at Stake in the 2024 Election 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:23.440 Welcome to Chopping it Up. 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:25.680 I'm your host, Mike Hallen, the senior restaurant and food 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:29.240 service analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. Our research and that of 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:31.840 bi's five hundred analysts around the globe can be found 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:36.600 exclusively on the Bloomberg terminal. Today, Nathan Dean, BI senior 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:39.400 US policy analyst, is here to give us a download 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.440 on the US election. Thanks for doing this, Nathan. 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:44.080 Oh, thanks for having me. Really appreciate it. 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:45.880 Nathan does great work here for BI. 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:51.159 They put out a very very large, deep dive report 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.920 on the election, so I figured i'd have him here 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:57.480 to let us know how it's going to impact consumer 0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.360 spending and potentially the restaurants. 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:02.440 Yeah, if anybody wants to copy that, you can always 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:04.320 just reach out to us. We'll get you a PDF 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.080 and we'll give you about sixty five pages that I 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:10.120 think you can read from probably Grand Central station I'm 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:14.240 guessing to maybe Westchester or Connecticut. I think if that's 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:15.800 the train station that goes to Connecticut. 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:20.679 So I try to avoid the trains, especially New Jersey 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:22.360 Trains has had a lot of trouble this summer, so 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:25.200 I can't help you with where the trains are going. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:29.520 But yeah, how about that first debate? Man, that's two 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:31.720 hours of my life that I'll never get back. 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:36.040 So I was asked on Bloomberg Radio what my preferred 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:39.280 food was for the debate? What is the Dean household 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.560 going to be? And my response was I was going 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:43.960 to take as much Bloomberg popcorn as the pinetry as 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:47.920 security would allow me to. But it was a very 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.640 entertaining debate. But for those of us in the policy 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.480 side where I was looking for policy statements, a I 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.680 wasn't anticipating it. This is not a policy election, you know. 0:01:56.720 --> 0:02:00.600 This is an election between two different candidates, former President 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:03.920 Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, that both have 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:08.600 very stark differences on the view of where this country 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:11.560 should go. And when you have that combined with the 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:15.079 fact that Kamala Harris only had about one hundred and 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.400 twenty days to put a campaign together, you don't have 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.240 in an equation where you're going to get into policy, 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:24.639 and getting into policy probably it'd even hurt you more 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.320 so than help you. For all the talk. I mean, 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:31.040 obviously I don't run campaigns, so I can't accurately preview 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:34.640 say that. But you know, going into the debate, we 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:36.560 did not anticipate that there was going to be much 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:38.600 of the way of policy. However, we got some nuggets. 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:42.640 President Trump talked about tariff, something very important to a 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:46.680 lot of the investors of the clients of Bloomberg, and 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.760 you know, just I'm guessing for people who are listening 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:52.200 to this podcast right now, we got some on taxes, 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.480 so tariff taxes, and we also got a little bit 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:59.800 of you know, Vice President Harris's views on price gouging 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:01.760 and so forth like that. But for the most part, 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:04.120 I don't think the debate. In fact, my post debate 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:06.679 note that I put on the terminal said, look, there 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.600 wasn't much. The endorsement of Taylor Swift was, you know, 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:11.840 certainly a big deal that could you know, that could 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:14.720 do stuff. But I think the race and you know, 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:16.880 for those of you who have a terminal, you can 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.639 look at the betting markets a WSL election go and 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:21.959 I was watching this during the debate, and you could 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:25.560 see the betting markets decline for President Trump an increase 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:28.880 for Vice President Harris. And this is both poly market 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:32.359 and predicted. Is on the terminal, But when I looked 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:35.200 at it yesterday, things are normalized a little bit. And 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.640 so in the poly market space, President Trump is leading 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:42.560 in the predicted space, Vice President Harris is leading. To me, 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:45.600 that is no change from prior to the debate. So 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:47.160 life continues. 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:51.000 Okay, So basically we spoke about this before. You know, 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.880 he looked pretty miserable. He did not have a very 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.800 good performance. But so it sounds like it doesn't really matter. 0:03:56.840 --> 0:03:58.960 I know some people have been saying a conservative pundits 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.040 have been saying it. Say, you know, do I believe 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:04.440 that what they're telling me that it doesn't matter? But 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:06.600 if you're telling me it doesn't matter, maybe it really doesn't. 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.800 Well, but for all the argument that it doesn't matter, 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.200 let's also remember that there's going to be approximately one 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:14.520 hundred and fifty million Americans that are going to vote 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:18.240 in the selection. One hundred thousand of them spread across 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.760 seven swing states, are going to be the ones that 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:23.720 ultimately decide who's going to be the next president. And 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:26.680 if you're listening to us right now in Philadelphia, I 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.200 am sorry for all the advertisements that you're seeing. I 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:33.159 saw that the NBC affiliate had twenty eight advertisements between 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:36.320 five am and seven am earlier this week, and so 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:41.240 it's the folks at Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:44.719 You know, they're the ones that are ultimately can decide. 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.200 And what both candidates are trying to do here is 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:50.159 get people off the couch or stay on the couch. 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.200 Because this isn't a race between Vice President Harris and 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:56.040 Donald Trump. This is a race between Vice President Harris, 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:59.159 President Trump and the couch. And if you remember in 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.800 that debate, Vice President Harris said, you know, she was 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:04.479 talking about NATO and Ukraine and she said, they're eight 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.640 hundred thousand Polish Americans living in the state of Pennsylvania. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.600 That was a way of taking a statement that President 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:14.680 Trump had used and trying to push some of those 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:17.120 eight hundred thousand Polish Americans to get off the couch. 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:19.599 If people stay on the couch, more likely than not, 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:20.559 President Trump wins. 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:21.960 Yeah. It's interesting, man. 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.159 They sounds like their neck and neck. So do you 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:25.840 have any opinion on who you think is going to 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:26.400 pull this out? 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.760 Look, I can show you pulling. You know, I can 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:31.600 show you polling that President Trump is going to win. 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:33.320 I'm going to show you pulling. I can show you 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.599 the polling the Vice President Harris will Win. In fact, 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.040 I had to. I've been flying around the US and 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.040 one of the things that I've been saying to clients 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.760 when I go to them is like, I apologize that 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.560 the DC expert flies all the way out here just 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:49.479 to tell you that he doesn't know who's going to 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.360 win the election. But it is going to be that close. 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.120 I mean, we're talking about if there is a snowstorm 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:58.040 in the greater Philadelphia area or in the greater Pittsburgh 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:02.000 area the day of election, of election day, that potentially 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.440 swing things left and right. President Trump has actually, you know, 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:10.160 embraced the crypto community fairly aggressively to try and make 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:13.200 the United States the crypto capital of the world because 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:16.880 there are potentially, let's just call it, three thousand individuals 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:19.640 in the United States in those seven swing states that 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:22.839 crypto is their only issue that they're voting on, and 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:26.400 as a result, you need every single vote. So it's 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:30.440 going to be that close, and you know, I can 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:31.840 still see scenarios for both. 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:35.719 Yeah, and I'd assume the last debate is going to 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:37.200 be really important. 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:38.560 If they hold it. 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:41.400 If they hold it, all right, yeah, so. 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:44.200 Right now, the next debate is on October first, that 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.080 is between vice president of the vice presidential candidates, so 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.760 Governor Tim Wallas and Minnesota and Senator J. D. E. 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.960 Vans of Ohio. Vice president debates usually are good popcorn watching, 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:55.840 but they don't ultimate. I mean, how many folks can 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.400 you think that vote primarily because of the vice president. 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.360 Certainly for the folks in Ohio and Minnesota it's a 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:04.440 little bit more personal to them. For the rest of 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.000 the folks in the United States, the vice president debate 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.560 usually doesn't matter all that much. But then we have 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.480 the third debate, which may or may not happen, as 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:16.040 if we're recording this, you know, September thirteenth, you know, 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:18.240 President Trump said there's not going to be a third debate. 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:21.720 Immediately after the second debate, Vice President Harris's team came 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:23.840 out and said, we want a third let's do this, 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:27.800 Let's do so forth, and President Trump said, no, I'm good, 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:31.440 untruth social he said something and I'm paraphrasing here. You know, 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.160 the winner, the person who's calling for the rematch isn't 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:36.600 the winner. I won the debate, and so forth. Therefore, 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.920 there's no need to have a third debate. What I 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.320 will say is is that there potentially could be a 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:43.880 third debate. I don't want to say it's not going 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:47.880 to happen because it is September thirteenth. We don't know 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:50.400 what the race is going to look like on October fifteenth, 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:54.520 and if Kamala Harris begins to move, you know, maybe 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:58.600 some additional voter enthusiasm in Pennsylvania, for example, President Trump 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.480 may want to have that debate again because you know, 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.160 he could be better prepared, and it could be a 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.600 different story because President Trump. I mean, look, anybody watched 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.960 the first debate between President Trump and President Biden. Debates matter, 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:15.120 and so you know, debates have real consequences, and so 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.120 let's give both candidates time. I think, you know, we'll 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:20.760 see how it plays out. But around that October fifteenth 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.040 October twentieth timeline, you certainly could have a third debate. 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.040 But you know, right now, it seems like the debate's off. 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.120 But maybe in a week or two they'll come back 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:30.480 to it. 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:33.920 Okay, interesting and remind me last four years ago the 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:35.839 first debate, how did that pan out? 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.280 Well? You know which which one I mean it was? 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:43.440 There was there were multiple debates, but I think I 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:46.200 was referring to the first debate. This s this cycle. 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:50.080 So when President Trump and President Biden had their debate, 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:55.240 President Biden came across, you know, you know, he came 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.520 across in a way that essentially made a lot of 0:08:57.520 --> 0:09:02.560 people question his ability to be present. And within a 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.040 few weeks he was announcing that he's not going to 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:08.480 run anymore. And so, you know, some debates have matter. 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:11.480 I mean, look, I remember watching a debate, one of 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:15.960 the debates between President Obama and current Utah Senator Mitt Romney. 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.600 And Senator Romney I think handily won that debate, but 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.920 as we all know, President Obama won the election. And so, 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:27.160 you know, debates have real consequences. But so do policy statements. 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.920 So does the economy, So does the FED either cutting 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:33.680 or not cutting interest rates, and so there's all these 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:37.959 different factors. And when you're talking about one hundred thousand 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:43.320 voters over some swing states, you know, it's that how 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:47.040 how I mean the amount of regression analyzes you have 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:50.760 to run to try and figure out how those factors 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:52.880 are going to impact those one hundred thousand votes is 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:56.480 extremely difficult. And that's why polling in particular is very 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:58.600 difficult to get. 0:09:58.520 --> 0:09:59.960 Right, gotcha. 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.400 Yeah, And you know, I was curious because I thought 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.520 I saw something on Twitter. Some pundit was saying how 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:09.679 in the last cycle four years ago, Trump performed poorly 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:12.240 on the first debate, but then had a nice rebound 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:13.120 in the second one. 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:14.719 That was kind of what I oh. 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:18.200 Yeah, yeah, okay, yeah, I mean, look, you know, President 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.000 Trump had a great first debate against President Biden. The 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:24.720 second debate not so well. You know, if they have 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.880 a third debate, you know, there are real risk and 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.880 opportunities for both candidates. If it's a replay of the 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:34.040 second debate, Kamala Harris certainly would do well if President 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:37.720 Trump shows up and you know, begins to put the 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:41.040 onus back on her. You know, essentially, the way it 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:43.640 works is that whoever we're talking about at the end 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.719 of the debate is the one that loses. And if 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:50.000 we're talking about President Trump and President Trump's policies and 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:53.520 statements and things like cats and dogs, you know, that 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.160 means the chances are you lost the debate. If we're 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.440 talking about things like Kamala Harris's policies or maybe the 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:02.680 lack there of of policies, then she's lost the debate. 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:07.560 So you know, it's really just I think a challenge, 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.840 and I think that both candidates will go back and 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:13.600 they'll conduct their analysis and so forth, and I think 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:17.200 that if they decide, if they both decide that a 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.840 third debate is you know, advantageous to them, we'll see 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:23.280 one around that October fifteenth, October twentieth time frame. 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:26.080 Okay, Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it unfalls, right, 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:27.640 because I thought the Democrats did a good job of 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:31.040 setting the bar very low for Kamala, right, and she 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:35.680 clearly outperformed those expectations. But you're always curious to see 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.079 how that would change if she's expected to win the 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:42.800 third debate or you know, actually outline some policies. 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:45.800 So it's going to be interesting to watch. 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:48.160 Well, just remember that's politics, one on one. You never 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:51.560 set the debate or the bar high, you know. So, 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:54.960 I mean that's they could you know, a candidate could 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.640 be up by thirty points and they still are going 0:11:57.679 --> 0:11:59.640 to go in there saying that they're the underdog. They're 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:01.120 going to you know, they're going to try and do 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:02.960 their best and so forth, but they don't have great 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.800 expectations because then they overperform. 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.520 If they do all right, so I you know, almost 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.720 as important. How do you expect the Senate in the 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:11.600 House to pan out? 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:15.000 Yeah? So this is this is where Poland gets a 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.160 little bit more difficult because if everybody thinks of the 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:20.520 text messages or you're getting on your phone at the moment, 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:22.440 it's always how are you going to vote? For the 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:26.120 presidential race. Nobody's texting you to say, how are you 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.280 going to vote in the third district of Colorado. I 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:30.360 mean maybe the folks that live in the third District 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:32.360 of Colorado are getting that text, but I'm certainly not 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.120 getting that text about the House and Senate. So it's 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:38.080 a little bit more difficult. So when it comes to 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.960 the House, I rely on our friends over at Bloomberg 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:44.360 Government and they rely on the Cook Political Report and 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.640 so forth like that. And the Cook Political Report is 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.960 showing that there's about forty four seats that are either 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:53.360 leaning or toss up. Now, if you're listening and you're 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.679 not in the United States, just remember four hundred and 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.520 thirty five members of the House Representatives. Every single one 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:00.600 of them is up for reelection this sight. They serve 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.920 two year terms. Currently, the Republicans have the House two 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.400 hundred and twenty to two hundred and eleven. You need 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:08.959 two hundred and eighteen for majority, So the Republicans can 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.880 only afford to lose three. And this is why Speaker 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.000 Mike Johnson has struggled in a lot of times, and 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.120 current you know, the current spending bill is a perfect 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.560 example of that of why the Republicans have struggled to 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:23.280 get the certain bills across the line. Now when it 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.520 comes to the House with you know, because I said 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.400 forty four are leaning or toss ups, that means eighty 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:30.280 eight percent of the House are going to go to 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.160 bed on election night knowing that they've won their race. Well, 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.120 what happens for the other twelve, Well a couple things 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.079 to note. One, it's not the swing states that matter. 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:41.520 It's more so swing districts in states like New York 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:46.080 and California that matter. And it's going to be certainly 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.800 interesting that's going to be tying out to turnout. So 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.040 if Vice President Harris has great turnout, chances are that 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.240 could then go down into the House races as well. 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:57.640 Taking my Bloomberg hat off and putting my own personal 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.680 hat on, my view on the House is whoever wins 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.120 the presidency will ultimately win the House. And the reason 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.800 why that's important is because twenty twenty five is going 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:10.120 to be a year about tax debate and tax reform, 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:14.040 and generally tax policy starts in the House of Representatives 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.680 and then goes to the Senate. So whoever controls the 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.400 House controls the committees, and then whoever is the chairman 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.160 or the chairwoman of the House Ways and Means Committee 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.080 will be the one that offers the opening salvo, the 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:29.440 base case negotiation, if you will, of tax reform. But again, 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:33.040 I think whoever wins the presidency will probably win the House. Now, 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.160 on the Senate, this is a much better picture for 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:38.880 the Republicans, much more difficult picture for the Democrats because 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:41.640 thirty three, roughly one third of the Senate, goes up 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:44.560 every two years one hundred senators, two from every state 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.360 they serve six year terms. This year we have thirty 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:49.840 four because Nebraska has a special election, so there's two 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:53.560 senator votes upctually going on in Nebraska right now. But 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.560 this is an extremely difficult election for the Democrats. The 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:00.160 reason being is of those thirty four seats, f three 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.400 of them are held by Democrats and a lot of 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.080 them are held in Trump states or in swing states. 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.360 So currently the Democrats control the Senate fifty one to 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.440 forty nine. There are four independents. They give Senator Joe 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:16.320 Manchin Senator Bernie Sanders independence that caucus with the Democrats, 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.840 and immediately they're going to go down to fifty to 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:23.720 fifty because Senator Joe Manchin is retiring. Now again, I'm 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:25.840 not a polster, I'm not a political expert, but you 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:28.480 don't need to be one to know that more likely 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.400 than not, West Virginia is going to turn to a 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:33.400 Republican and the former governor, Jim Justice is going to 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.000 take that seat. So now the Democrats are down to 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.480 fifty to fifty. And if you have fifty to fifty, 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.000 remember the vice president is the one that ultimately controls 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:46.080 fifty to fifty votes. But in order for the Democrats 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.560 even to get to fifty to fifty, they have to 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.200 run the gauntlet and they have to defend a seat 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:54.160 like Senator Sherit Brown, the chairman of Senate Banking Committee 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.800 in Ohio. Senator John Tester in Montana, Montana is a 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.600 Republican state Senator. Tester on his last two elections just 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:05.880 by Finn Margins, Senator Jackie Rosen in Michigan, the retiring 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:09.800 seat of Senator Dabbie Stabenow in Michigan. The Democrats have 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:13.720 to run the gauntlet of those seats to potentially even 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.240 just get back to fifty to fifty. So the general 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:18.720 thought here is is that the Republicans have a very 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:21.280 good shot of taking the Senate. And the reason why 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:26.760 that's important is because the Senate filibuster exists for legislation. 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:31.480 It does not exist for regulatory appointments, judges, and nominations. 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:33.960 And for those of you who aren't familiar with the philibuster, 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.760 it is two hundred and fifty years of best practice. 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.800 It's not written down in the Constitution anywhere, but essentially 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.760 it's just two hundred and fifty years of best practice 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:44.640 which allows one Senator to stand up and say I 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:48.920 blocked this legislation and sixty senators need to overturn it. Now, 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:52.119 there used to be a filibuster for nominations and appointments, 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.160 and that went away under the Obama administration. And as 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.040 a result, if the Republicans take the Senate and President 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:02.600 Trump wins, are appointments in the the appointments of his 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.880 cabinet and so forth will move much quicker. In the 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.760 flip scenario, if the Republicans take the Senate and Vice 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.560 President Harris wins, the Republicans could jam up a good 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:14.719 portion of the first one hundred days of her presidency 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:17.960 by you know, blocking a lot of her appointments. 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:19.600 They have thrown some sand in the gears. 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:22.960 All right, let's figure out what's going on with consumer 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:28.760 spending under each potential administration. You know, talk to us 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:32.320 a little bit about the policies on regulation, taxes, and 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:33.000 stuff like that. 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:35.800 So it's important to remember. And this is if there's 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.080 ever a debate. If you're watching a campaign speech, it's 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:42.080 like it's like the Hamilton Musical when Aaron Burr says 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:43.560 to Hamilton, how are you going to get your debt 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.639 plan through? Hamilton responds and says, by listening to you, 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:50.399 aka negotiate. So any single time a candidate says I 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:52.719 want to do this tax, or I want to do 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.119 this policy, or I want to do that, the question 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:57.200 is how you going to do it? And there's three 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.960 ways of I would argue three ways of how things 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.000 get done in Washington. The first is legislation. You don't 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:04.960 need to be me to know that. Legislation is hard 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:08.920 to come by. The second is regulation. Regulation takes time. 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.200 You have to get those leaders in place. It has 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.600 to go through a rulemaking process. Probably usually takes you know, 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:16.480 usually takes the quickest ever ever seen it done is 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.200 about a year. More likely not it's two to three years. 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.320 And the third is executive orders eighty five percent. My 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.760 estimation of executive orders are a headline risk. You'll see 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:30.040 a red line on the terminal, it'll be flashing, you'll 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.320 look into it, but more likely than not, it's a 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.359 fancy way of the president picking up the phone and 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:36.639 saying to his staff, I want you to do something, 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:40.399 either the legislative route or the regulatory route. Now, the 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:42.719 other fifteen percent, though, is a little bit different. The 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.680 power of the presidency is a lot more powerful when 0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:51.040 it comes to things like trade, tariffs, foreign relations, national security, 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.680 because Congress over the last fifty to one hundred years 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:57.440 has delegated a lot of that to the president. If 0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.600 you're investing right now in US steel and you've been 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:02.880 watching Sifius review, you know exactly what I'm talking about. 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:05.679 Ciphius is most likely going to make a recommendation that 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:10.000 President Biden blocks the Nippon Steel US Steel and that 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:12.119 he can do that, and there's very little recourse that 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:16.200 Congress or the judges could do in response. So let's 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:20.800 talk about consumer facing in various in both the Harris 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:24.760 presidents and a Trump president's. Let's start with Vice President Harris. Now, 0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:27.520 Vice President Harris wins. She has already come out and 0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:32.520 said price gouging food inflation, if you will, is one 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:34.639 of her big you know, this is something that she 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:40.240 has talked about. So our initial assessment is the risk 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:43.679 of any bad things happening. And I say risk and 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:47.399 opportunity because remember for every risk there's an opportunity. But 0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:50.320 for the risk to these grocery stores that they then 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.680 could be targeted by price caps and so forth like that, 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:58.120 or to food who's wholesalers or anything, it's actually quite low. 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:00.879 The reason being is that price gouging we'll have to 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:04.840 go via the legislative route. The filibuster will still exist 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:07.480 even if the Democrats have the Senate, and we don't 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.880 see the filibuster going away, and as a result, there's 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.320 going to be a block there. Okay, So if there's 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:16.280 a block there let's go to the executive order route. Well, 0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:18.720 if we go to the executive order route and she 0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:21.520 can only do things within the that she has the 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:25.320 authority of the executive order or the executive branch, it 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:27.720 may turn up very similar to how President Biden had 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:30.560