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Speaker 1: Good morning, guys.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into a same day of edition of the DL

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Speaker 2: Juice podcast. I'm your host, Matt Parolet you guys can

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Speaker 2: follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk

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Speaker 2: Matt as I come to you from the great city

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Speaker 2: of Boston on a Saturday morning. We do not normally

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Speaker 2: do this podcast day of, but last night was Valentine's Day,

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Speaker 2: and so yeah, I was out late.

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Speaker 1: Extremely hungover, but will worth it. It was a good night.

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Speaker 1: It was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 2: So we're up and we're at it here in Massachusetts

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Speaker 2: to fire on what I was I was expecting to

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Speaker 2: have more plays today than I'm going to have. I

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Speaker 2: actually was looking at the card. This is an incredible

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Speaker 2: watching day, Like there are games all day long where

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Speaker 2: you can just PLoP yourself down in front of the

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Speaker 2: television set, could watch games starting at New and Eastern

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Speaker 2: time all the way up until midnight Eastern time. But

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Speaker 2: as I went through the card, I don't know if

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Speaker 2: there are four there's not. There's not four games I like.

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Speaker 2: There's only three games that I like. I'm not a

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Speaker 2: huge fan of what we have seen in the line

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Speaker 2: movement on a couple of these games, I've got plays

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Speaker 2: Alabama Auburn.

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Speaker 1: Obviously we're getting involved with that.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm going to jump in on

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Speaker 2: everything that I thought I was going to jump in on.

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Speaker 2: I thought I was going to be involved with Kentucky today,

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Speaker 2: but Kentucky's got too many injuries. I think they go

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Speaker 2: to Texas and win, but I'm not in love with that.

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Speaker 2: There's a couple like, you know, Syracuse at home against

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Speaker 2: North Carolina. I really don't think North Carolina should be

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Speaker 2: laying six and a half points to anybody, but it's

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Speaker 2: Syracuse and they've been a little bit on the inconsistent side.

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Speaker 2: So I that card fell off. That game fell off

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Speaker 2: my card. So you know, the Creighton game tomorrow against

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Speaker 2: Yukon is the game of the weekend in my world.

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Speaker 2: But that game is tomorrow. That game is not today.

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Speaker 2: So last night, what did we do? I don't think

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Speaker 2: I added this. I didn't add this, So let me

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Speaker 2: make sure I can add these things so we can

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Speaker 2: put these things up. It was not a good Friday

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Speaker 2: for us yesterday, but we kind of fooled around with it.

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Speaker 2: So we went down oh and two, down one point

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Speaker 2: six units on that that basically because we got Harvard right,

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Speaker 2: we got Sacred Heart right, and then Marist lost by

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Speaker 2: nine to Quinnipiac, so unfortunately we didn't come in on that.

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Speaker 2: Indiana loses by four, so they don't cover the UCLA.

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Speaker 2: So unfortunately we wound up down oh and two, down

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Speaker 2: one point six units on the day there. So you know,

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Speaker 2: those things are going to happen, and that's just you know,

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Speaker 2: one of those, uh, one of those things that happen

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Speaker 2: just in general. So we have a chance to have

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Speaker 2: a winning week. We're pretty much I think we're down

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Speaker 2: a little over.

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Speaker 1: I think it might be a unit.

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Speaker 2: I'll do the math on that, but like we've gone

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Speaker 2: ping ponging back and forth, or we're up down, up down,

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Speaker 2: we're up a unit on Thursday, down one point six

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Speaker 2: on Saturday or on Friday. So we have Saturday and

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Speaker 2: Sunday to kind of come in and obviously it's a

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Speaker 2: huge college basketball weekend for both Saturday and Sunday. So

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Speaker 2: let's get into the games coming up here for today.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a game that will tip off at

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Speaker 2: two o'clock Eastern time eleven am. This is another eleven

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Speaker 2: am Eastern time start for Arizona at home against Houston.

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Speaker 2: This is due to television, so the CBS, Slash, ABC,

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Speaker 2: ESPN cruise. This is when they want these games. They

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Speaker 2: want them in primetime, if you will, like you know,

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Speaker 2: for all the East Coast audiences, I'm on East Coast time,

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Speaker 2: I can tell you what west. No one likes playing

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Speaker 2: basketball at eleven o'clock. However, according to Kenpom, you take

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Speaker 2: a look at their projections, this is a two point

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Speaker 2: win for Houston on the road. I'm not sure I

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Speaker 2: agree with this. This falls into a system play for me,

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Speaker 2: where you have a team that goes on the road

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Speaker 2: and loses in conference. This Arizona team lost a case

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Speaker 2: State on the road seventy three seventy in their last game,

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Speaker 2: and they turn around and come home for a conference

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Speaker 2: game in which they are home dogs. That is Arizona

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Speaker 2: here at home. The number is one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think if you shop and try to if you

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Speaker 2: could find this number before it tips off, if it

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Speaker 2: moves more, I think it's a play on the dog here.

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Speaker 2: I think you could potentially take and you could take two.

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Speaker 2: So let's let's c you know you could take two.

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Speaker 2: That that number just moved like I thought Okay, so

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Speaker 2: it's now this is what's gonna happen when you're betting

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Speaker 2: day of I'm going to take two here with Arizona

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Speaker 2: at home. Why look, Arizona at home has been really

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Speaker 2: good this year, and they've been covering at home a ton.

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Speaker 2: They've covered three straight games at home, They've covered seven

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Speaker 2: or last nine games at home, and they're scoring. Houston

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Speaker 2: obviously is the undermachine, like we know that they are.

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Speaker 1: They can be a little bit.

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Speaker 2: More inconsistent on the offensive side, but I think if

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Speaker 2: you get tempo to be Arizona's tempo, I think Arizona

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Speaker 2: wins this game ninth. They're thirty ninth in tempo. Clearly

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Speaker 2: this is Houston, so we know where they are. Temple wise,

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Speaker 2: they're three hundred and sixtieth in tempo. They they just

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Speaker 2: don't play fast. They grind it out. But their offense

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Speaker 2: has been better at times than in years past. They

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Speaker 2: still have the sixth most efficient offense the Cougars do

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Speaker 2: eighty six, and the effective field goal percentage fifth and

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Speaker 2: three point shooting the difference is one. They're two point

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Speaker 2: shooting is not good two hundred and thirty ninth, and

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Speaker 2: their free throw free throw is still not great. Seventy

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Speaker 2: four seventy two point four percent, which is one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventieth. When you go on the road in conference

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Speaker 2: against the top twenty team, you got to hit your

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Speaker 2: free throws. Houston doesn't do that. On the flip side

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Speaker 2: of Arizona, well, they do. They're thirty second in free

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Speaker 2: throw shooting. They're forty third and two point shooting, but

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Speaker 2: they're not great from behind the arc.

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Speaker 1: They can be inconsistent and streaky.

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Speaker 2: With Caleb Love if he gets hot, he can really

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Speaker 2: burn you defensively. The metrics for Houston right where you

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Speaker 2: thought there would be their third and two point defense,

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Speaker 2: they're eighty ninth and three point defense. They are ninth

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Speaker 2: in effective field goal percentage. They're fourth in a justin efficiency.

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Speaker 2: Whichever team dictates tempo, I think wins the game here.

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Speaker 2: So it can be a correlated play. It's Houston in

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Speaker 2: the under and Arizona in the over. But I'm more

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Speaker 2: confident to take the points here. You know I was

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Speaker 2: going to take one and a half, I'm going to

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Speaker 2: take two. I'm going to jump in on plus two

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Speaker 2: here for Arizona at home and take the bucket. But

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Speaker 2: you can play money line if you don't want to

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Speaker 2: play around with it. I think Houston wins the game,

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Speaker 2: and I think Houston will continue to be our formidable

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Speaker 2: foe at home where they're eight and four ats this year,

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Speaker 2: they're nine and five in the Big twelve ATS wise,

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Speaker 2: Houston's eight and five, so there's nothing to sneeze at.

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Speaker 2: But they're four and six ats on the road for Houston,

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Speaker 2: and on the road against Colorado in their last game,

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Speaker 2: they were laying fourteen.

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Speaker 1: They won. They only won by ten. They didn't kill them.

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Speaker 2: They did win and cover against West Virginia and Kansas

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Speaker 2: on the road. But against Central Florida they're laying thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half, the only one by one. They killed

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Speaker 2: Kansas State where they're laying ten and a half and

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Speaker 2: they won by thirty. But I think this Arizona team,

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Speaker 2: coming off this lost to Kansas State, which snapped a

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Speaker 2: six game winning streak for them, they get right back

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Speaker 2: on the horse today. You can take money line if

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Speaker 2: you want, but I'll take Arizona plus the two for

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Speaker 2: one point one units.

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Speaker 1: The game of the day.

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Speaker 2: This game will tip off after Houston and Arizona. It

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Speaker 2: is Alabama hosting Auburn. This is a four pm start

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Speaker 2: time Tusk loose to Alabama. This is the first time

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Speaker 2: in the history of SEC basketball where the number one

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Speaker 2: ranked team Auburn and the number two team ranked Alabama

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Speaker 2: will play each other in a conference game. It's also

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Speaker 2: the first time that Alabama and Auburn, in their story rivalry,

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Speaker 2: they will play against each other one versus two. The

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Speaker 2: numbers two and a half. The total is one seventy

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Speaker 2: two and a half. I think it is an interesting

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Speaker 2: look here at Auburn as a dog. I'm not really,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess because of the way that Bama has.

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Speaker 1: Played in conference.

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Speaker 2: They're eight and three ATS, while Auburn is five and

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Speaker 2: six ATS. Auburn's eight and five on the road, and

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Speaker 2: Auburn's record this year is absolutely outstanding. They are twenty

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Speaker 2: two and two. They are twelve and one straight up

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Speaker 2: on the road, twenty two and two straight up on

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Speaker 2: the tray up this year. Alabama's twenty one and three.

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Speaker 2: I get it, and they're ten and one ATS wise,

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Speaker 2: But this BAMA team at home lost to Mississippi. It

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Speaker 2: all miss went in there and won the game by ten.

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Speaker 2: It's not like it's impossible to win at Alabama. And

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Speaker 2: we're talking about a team here that lost to Florida

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Speaker 2: in Auburn.

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Speaker 1: That stunned some people.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they've they lost to Duke in Maui, and

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Speaker 2: they lost to Florida at home. This Auburn team, you know,

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Speaker 2: I thought they might get caught look at a head

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Speaker 2: and not cover against Vanderbilt. That didn't happen. They won

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Speaker 2: by twelve, and they covered the nine and a half

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Speaker 2: point number. So I'm not fading Auburn anymore. That the

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Speaker 2: best team in college basketball, and they are a team

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Speaker 2: against the spread wise who has had a lot of success.

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Speaker 2: They've covered four of their last five games. And I

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Speaker 2: just think in terms of Kempom has this as an

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Speaker 2: Auburn victory by two, and yet Auburn is catching two

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Speaker 2: and a half and the number one from one and

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Speaker 2: a half to two and a half. The pros are

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Speaker 2: or on Alabama today. I don't really agree. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I don't agree. I think Auburn's offense is going to

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Speaker 2: be a really big problem. Defensively, Alabama's been better this year.

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Speaker 2: Their thirteenth and three point defense, their fifty fifth and

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Speaker 2: two point defense, twentieth of defective field goal percentage in

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Speaker 2: fortieth in a justin efficiency, this is the number one

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Speaker 2: most efficient offense in college basketball. This is the nineteenth

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Speaker 2: best effective field goal percentage offensively in the country, thirty

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Speaker 2: ninth and three point shooting in twenty fourth and two

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Speaker 2: point shooting. I mean, this is just an incredible team.

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Speaker 2: And on the other side, yes, Alabama's off is extremely efficient. Second,

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Speaker 2: you know this is one versus two for efficiency, but

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Speaker 2: you know thirteenth for effective field goal percentage. But Alabama's

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Speaker 2: been streaky behind the arc one hundred and forty. Second,

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Speaker 2: We've talked about Bama's three point shooting and why I

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Speaker 2: haven't loved Alabama at times. I just think top to bottom,

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Speaker 2: the better basketball team is Auburn. And I think when

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Speaker 2: you have a chance to take dogs in a rivalry game,

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Speaker 2: and sure it's a short number on the road, it's

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Speaker 2: one possession, but I think, you know, I agree with

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Speaker 2: Ken Palm. I think Auburn goes in there and wins

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Speaker 2: the game. Today, I think they keep the number one ranking.

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Speaker 2: I just think Auburn's the better team, and I think

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Speaker 2: Auburn wins. But again, you can play moneyline if you want,

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Speaker 2: but I don't trust Mark Sears. I haven't been the

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Speaker 2: biggest Mark Siers fans, you know, in for college basketball.

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Speaker 2: I think he can take some ill advised shots and

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Speaker 2: some you can turn the basketball over. I think defensively,

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Speaker 2: I think Auburn's got more length, and I think Petiford,

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Speaker 2: the true freshman, has been so good for Auburn this

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Speaker 2: year that I think he could be the difference maker

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Speaker 2: of this game. I'll take the points, give me plus

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Speaker 2: two and a half Auburn plus two and a half

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Speaker 2: for one point one units. And finally, Georgia is hosting

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Speaker 2: Missouri today. Now, I've been playing a lot of Georgia unders,

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Speaker 2: but Georgia on the road is a different team than

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Speaker 2: Georgia at home. Now, at home, Georgia is ten and

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Speaker 2: five ats, but Missouri is five and two ats on

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Speaker 2: the road and they're nine and two in the SEC

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Speaker 2: ATS Wise, that concerns me. I think Georgia is gonna

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Speaker 2: win this game today. They're dogs at home catching two

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Speaker 2: and a half points from Missouri, but I think the

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Speaker 2: better plays to look at the total, which is one

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Speaker 2: forty five and a half. Georgia on the road is

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Speaker 2: ten and zero to the under, but at home they're

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Speaker 2: eight and seven to the over this year, Missouri is

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Speaker 2: five and two to the over on the road, and

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Speaker 2: while both these teams are unders under machines in SEC

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Speaker 2: play seven and four to the under Missouri in ten

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Speaker 2: and two to the under Georgia when the games are

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Speaker 2: at home. The last two games for Georgia have both

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Speaker 2: gone over against Missippi State and LSU one forty two

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Speaker 2: and a half and both gives one forty two and

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Speaker 2: a half went over by half a point in by

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Speaker 2: eight and a half points on the other side. On

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Speaker 2: the road, the last two road games for Missouri in

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Speaker 2: SEZ play have gone over. One forty eight and a

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Speaker 2: half against Missippi State went over by half a point

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Speaker 2: and one thirty five for Tennessee over by thirty one points.

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Speaker 2: We were on that Tennessee and Missouri over. I thought

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Speaker 2: one thirty five was too low and it flew over. Well,

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Speaker 2: we're not where we're ten points higher now. But I mean,

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Speaker 2: kempom has this game had won forty three, it's one

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Speaker 2: forty five and a half. Yes, that's two and a

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Speaker 2: half points under. Kemp bam thinks this goes under. But

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Speaker 2: given the fact that I think this is a desperate

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Speaker 2: Georgia team. This Georgia team, and you could take the

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Speaker 2: point if you want with Georgia. But here's the thing.

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Speaker 2: Georgia plays Missouri today, they have Alabama, sorry, they have

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Speaker 2: Auburn in Florida the next two games. Okay, so they

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Speaker 2: don't win today, they're gonna lose the next two games

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Speaker 2: for Auburn and Florida. Then they play Texas on the road.

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Speaker 2: That's probably gonna be a loss. Then they play South

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Speaker 2: Carolina and Vanderbilt to end the year. If they don't

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Speaker 2: win today, they may not win another game the rest

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Speaker 2: of the season. And they're sixteen and nine. Georgia is

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Speaker 2: not insane, but they're on that there right now. Like

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Speaker 2: they could make the NSAA Tournament. They win over Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: They got a big win there. They got to start

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Speaker 2: to get a couple of wins here. And this is

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Speaker 2: a game where I think the Georgia at home home

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Speaker 2: dog if you want, but I think it's Georgia and

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Speaker 2: over Missouri and under, which is kind of crazy, but

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Speaker 2: I think that's the correlation. I like the over better.

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Speaker 2: I can see Georgia winning the game. I can any

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Speaker 2: want just go ahead and lay Georgia. You can, but

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the over one forty five and a

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Speaker 2: half for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: All right, so plays for today.

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Speaker 2: We are going to take a Auburn Arizona plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half at one point one units, Auburn plus

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Speaker 2: two and a half while that number, Yeah, I played

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Speaker 2: two and a half. Okay, so I played two and

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Speaker 2: a half. Sorry, it's still early in the morning. I

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Speaker 2: played two and a half for Auburn. That number is

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Speaker 2: still available, Okay. You can get that at FanDuel at

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Speaker 2: two and a half, and then Georgia and Missouri over

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Speaker 2: one forty five and a half. You can bet money

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Speaker 2: line Georgia. You can bet money line Auburn. You can

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Speaker 2: bet moneyline Arizona if you want, and just forget about

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Speaker 2: the points and just take money line if you want.

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Speaker 2: But Arizona plus one and a half are really plus.

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Speaker 2: You can find plus two in the market, Auburn plus

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Speaker 2: two and a half and Georgia Missouri at plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half. Let me just double check on that

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Speaker 2: Auburn on that Arizona score to give you an official number,

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Speaker 2: because I think we can get we can get two. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we can get two. So let's take two, so it's two.

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Speaker 2: So Auburn plus two and a half, Arizona plus two.

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Speaker 2: That's what I was thinking about. Arizona plus two, Auburn

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Speaker 2: plus two and a half in Georgia plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half. So make sure you find those two two

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Speaker 2: point dog home dog for Arizona. Min's Matt Pereltz will

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Speaker 2: be taping late night tonight back on the normal schedule.

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Speaker 2: If you're an overnight guy, you'll get that podcast overnight

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Speaker 2: tonight for a Sunday. You guys can follow me across

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Speaker 2: all of my socials at sports Doc Matt every single morning,

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Speaker 2: sometimes day off.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice Podcast.