1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leye. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course the let's start the 5 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: conversation of the morning shall with Greg Battle of BMP 6 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: Parabad joined us now the US head of Equity and 7 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,959 Speaker 1: Derivative Strategy. Greg fantastic to catch out with you, sir. 8 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: The market should it view what is happening in the 9 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: commodity market as a story a technical story isolated to 10 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 1: crude or a broader market story we need to pay 11 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: attention to. Absolutely has to be both. So for sure, 12 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: there's some idiosyncratic stuff to do with storage and the 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: fact that's just the front month and it's expiry. But 14 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: the reality is, and you just touched on this, that 15 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: we wouldn't be in this situation if demand wasn't zero. 16 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: We've had this this shutdown across the country that's going 17 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: to see GDP plunge, unemployment skyrocket, and that's the fundamental 18 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: reason why we're in this situation in the oil market, 19 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: and that reads across to to every other risky asset. 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: So there's a question can equities in the United States 21 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: rally if oil prices continue to go down? And I'm 22 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,839 Speaker 1: thinking about the thousands of jobs that are being lost 23 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: nine percent of the workforce in the U S. Shail 24 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: patch so far just in March alone, what do you 25 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: read in terms of a signal for U S stocks? 26 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: I don't think having the kind of capitulation that we've 27 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: seen in oil can be viewed as anything other than 28 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: on unhealthy for kind of capital markets generally. What we've 29 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: seen in US equity markets, we had this extremely volatile 30 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: crash that took the market down, and we've now had 31 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: a massive rally that I view as a bear market rally. 32 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: I think history tells us, and we've had a long 33 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: look across the history of crashes that when you have 34 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: a steep economic downturn, that is very rare for bear 35 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: markets to last a month or two. The typical be 36 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: much longer in duration, much more attractive. Greg part of 37 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: this is wealth destruction. Just to look at the E 38 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: T F Fisco and Martin Rats, John Farrell was just 39 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: phenomenal with Morgan Stanley this morning walking through the tangible 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 1: E t f dynamics of oil. But Greg, what's so 41 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:22,239 Speaker 1: important here to me is people are going to lose money. 42 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: How does the wealth destruction that we're seeing now fold 43 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: into equity performance six months or six years down the road. Yeah, 44 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 1: there's absolutely an impact. So we're going to be hit 45 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 1: by two things next is one is a wealth effect 46 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: because of what's happening in capital markets generally, and the 47 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: other is just quite simply what's happened in unemployment in 48 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: the US and the strength of the economy. Both of 49 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: these things are gonna have a negative feedback loop that 50 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: come back into equity. So yeah, I think we've got 51 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: a really really challenging favor ahead of us. You know, 52 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: I want to go back to something that John was 53 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: talking about earlier, how the price of oil is a 54 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: very accurate gauge of where we are in an economy 55 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: that's basically been shuttered period full stop. The question now 56 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: is duration, right, And I think that that's sort of 57 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,119 Speaker 1: what we're seeing in the future contract for oil. There 58 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: is hope that the near future is going to be 59 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: very different, or at least there will be more demand 60 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: and a bit of a bit of more balance in 61 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: the market. Greg do you think that that optimism is misplaced. Well, 62 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: I think you have to be careful having a lot 63 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: of optimism that we're going to see a v shaped 64 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: recovery and everything reopen and go back to normal quickly. Now, 65 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: clearly we're very much hoping that we do start the 66 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: path to normalcy and that this this virus starts to 67 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: dissipate and people can start to read the businesses. Clearly, 68 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: that's going to increase this incremental demands for things like 69 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: crude from zero to something somewhat higher. But it doesn't 70 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: mean that the state of the economy and the state 71 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: of markets going back to where they were several months 72 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: ago in the next couple of months. Typically the path 73 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: to recovery is much slower and longer than the than 74 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: the than the crash on the way down. Well, Lisa, 75 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: I think if you wanted the more constructive way of 76 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: looking at what's happening on the score today and yesterday, 77 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: you could say this is the necessary pain we need 78 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: to go through in the short term to rebalance the 79 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: all market in the medium to long term. Now medium 80 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: long term, pick a day any day. I was talking 81 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: to and read Ascent of Energy Aspects yesterday about this. 82 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 1: You're going out deep into into and if you think 83 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: about the environment that this is going to have, this 84 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: is generating this move. At the moment, capex not going 85 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: to be much of that. You're going to really strip 86 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: out supply capacity. Maybe they'll actually build more storage because 87 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: of what is happening as well. The dynamic that plays 88 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 1: out today sets up a different crude world two years 89 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: down the road. I agree, John, But to me, the 90 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: fascinating thing is there was a story that Saudi Arabia 91 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,359 Speaker 1: is considering perhaps bringing forward the cuts that will go 92 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 1: into effect in May two a little bit earlier, given 93 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: the fact that we're seeing negative matters in this world. Right, 94 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 1: absolutely ten days matters, But it shows the tone deafness, right, 95 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, they're considering possibly doing this at a 96 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: time when oil prices are falling to the lore. It 97 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 1: just raises a question about yes, there may be capacity 98 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: and and there might be a production that's cut, but 99 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: is this really a reality check? I mean, why wouldn't 100 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: they cut it now? No? I think they understand that 101 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: there's very little they can do in this environment. We're 102 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: talking about crude demand collapsing by thirty million pounds a 103 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 1: day through Q two. What can you do on the 104 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 1: supply side that can cut by ten million? Ten million? 105 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:27,119 Speaker 1: That car was really really big in a grand scheme 106 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: of things, but when you think about what's been happening 107 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: with demand, it's just not big enough. And now we're 108 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,679 Speaker 1: near enough. Yeah. If you look at the international flights 109 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: for example, down nine in the past month. Yeah, and 110 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: potentially spilling over into May and June as well. Greg, 111 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: great to catch up. These are always great to hear 112 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 1: from your Greg. Battle there of BMP Paraba this morning, 113 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: it's global. Brent crude comes in with a vengeance to 114 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: frame that right now. Brent crude down to twenty one 115 00:05:55,120 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: the Chica the June West Texas Intermediate, there's sixteen dollars 116 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 1: a barrel and still a negative statistic on a one 117 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: day remaining West Texas Intermediate. Our interview of the day 118 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 1: on oil Martin Rots of Morgan Stanley Martin. I want 119 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 1: to cut to the chase and do the derivative ballet 120 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: right now, because I know John and Lise have got 121 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 1: some huge questions on oil and its future. There is 122 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: a Greek letter called Theta, which is the time decay 123 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 1: of future. Given how odd things are. Now, do we 124 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: see normal THETA for June and July contracts or do 125 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:41,119 Speaker 1: they collapse more rapidly because of the larger situation we're in. Yeah, 126 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: I'd be inclining to say you're I'd be inclined to 127 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: say the letter. Um, there's quite an interesting situation going 128 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: home with the June and July and futures. At the 129 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 1: moment um, there have been huge influence in oil eks 130 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks, and this is this 131 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: is likely. This is likely in flows from retail investors 132 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: other market participants that are trying to pick the bottom 133 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: in oil and then end up buying these oil ets. 134 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: But what oil ets typically do. They buy relatively early 135 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: months of futures and then and then roll them close 136 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: to expiry. Over the last few weeks, most of these 137 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: ets have been rolling into the June and to a 138 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: certain extent of July future, so they've had very, very 139 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 1: significant UH support from these flows. Having said that, though, 140 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: if you start to look at the actual supply demand 141 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: situation for oil, it's not so obvious that by the 142 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: time those contracts expire, the storage situation around Cushing will 143 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: be very different from what it is in May. And therefore, 144 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: when ultimately the prices of these futures will need to 145 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: connect to the physical reality, Uh, then they are likely 146 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: they are likely to correct lower. And I think that 147 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: that is a dynamic Um that um is broadly at 148 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: play in the sense that also this morning you're seeing 149 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: you're seeing the second month in future, which is the 150 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: Dune future, and the July future also under under renewed pressure. Again, Martin, 151 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: that's what I want to discuss with you this morning. 152 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: I think we're all interested in having that conversation. What 153 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: is happening in the physical markets, And it's been taking 154 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: place for a number of weeks now in the United States. 155 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 1: As Tom pointed out at the start of this conversation, 156 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: today it feels more global. The pain starts to spread 157 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: to the Brent contract in a bigger way. Can you 158 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: walk us through the individual dynamics of say the US 159 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: crude market at the moment, just in terms of storage, 160 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: and compare that to the nature of the logistical limits 161 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: of say the international markets, which would shake the Brent contract. Yeah, um, 162 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: it's a good one. Um. Well, Frankly, this has become 163 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: a very, very complicated and to a certain extent, someone's 164 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: frustrating exercise. As in the past, typically when work prices 165 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: would lower, you would say, look what is the high cost, 166 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: what's high cost production? And could the countries that supply 167 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: there was higher called barrels, could their production be at 168 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 1: risk sooner than than others. But at the moment um, 169 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: we're in a situation where, um, there there are so 170 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: many logistical bottlenecks popping up pretty much in all of 171 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: the main major producing the countries where they're the whole 172 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: we see them as low costs or high costs. We're 173 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 1: simply running into these logistical issues. For example, Brazil see 174 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: its relatively favorable on the global cost curve from a 175 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 1: pure production cost perspective, but Brazilian oil is tends to 176 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: be what we call a longhole crewit. It's typically shipped 177 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 1: to refine refineries in China and elsewhere in Asia over 178 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: long distances. But with tanker rates going up so much 179 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 1: because we're using tankers to store oil or shore, there's 180 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: huge demand for tankers, these transportation costs go go higher 181 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: and higher, which means that also Petro Bross has now 182 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 1: said that they will cost two hundred thousand barrels a 183 00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: day of production. Because of this dynamic, you have fruits 184 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: in Russia for example, or or Nigeria also a good 185 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 1: example which we own the whole, do not regard as 186 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: high cost fruits. But both those countries have very little 187 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: domestic storage capacity for example, so they will be impacted. 188 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: So rather than us being able to do a global 189 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: analysis and say, oh, deed are the high cost producers, 190 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 1: these are the locals producers. These will be more impact 191 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: that these will be less impacted. We now need to 192 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 1: start analyzing these hyper local situations around storage depots, around 193 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: pipeliness connection to the cboard market. And that is just 194 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: a very nitty gritty analysis that that that that we're 195 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: all trying to figure out as we speak. Martin, what's 196 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: so important here is looking out to June and July. 197 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: Explain why oil isn't like a virus lockdown. How does 198 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: oil restart? Is it an easy thing to restart demand? Um? No, 199 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: it's not an easy thing to restart amunks. And the 200 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: tricky thing is this the restarting, the oil man will 201 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: likely be uneven across the products, so you would likely 202 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: see some more driving before we start flying again. Now 203 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: now that the issue is is that if you put 204 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 1: a barrel of crude oil in a refinery, typically you're 205 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: getta get various products in a certain relatively predetermined mix. 206 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:28,199 Speaker 1: An individual refinery, once it's bought, a certain fruit can 207 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: flex a little bit to produce a bit more gasoline, 208 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: a bit less jet fuel, but on the whole less. 209 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: So so it's simply we are not going to be 210 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: flying anytime soon. That creates all sorts of problems for refineries. Um, 211 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: if we do need some of the gasoline demands. So um. 212 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 1: The uneven nature of the restarted the economy, um is 213 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: it is a challenging one for the oirange. Fascinating Martin, 214 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Surveillance this morning. 215 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: Here again folks with Brent me in like West Texas 216 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 1: Intermediate yesterday, Mr Rats is with Morgan Stanley today the 217 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: government New York temp meeting with the President of the 218 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: United States. Yeah, in crisis, you really figure out who 219 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 1: can do what, and I think everybody, Republicans and Democrats 220 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: would suggest the Governor of New York has provided leadership. 221 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 1: Part of that is he has an e collective group 222 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: around him, including our wonderful Lieutenant governor from Buffalo, New 223 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: York uh joining us now? And what is so important 224 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: about Kathy Hokel as she was originally way back a 225 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 1: Democrat and a member of the Conservative Party as well. 226 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: That is very cool and straddles the emotions of the time. 227 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: Lieutenant Governor, what would you suggest your governor will say 228 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 1: to the President today? Well, as you mentioned, i think 229 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: it's important for us to work with all of our partners, 230 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,559 Speaker 1: including the President, Nited States, and what the Governor is 231 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 1: going to do is continue to make our case why 232 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: places like New York State need the federal government's assistant 233 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: to invoke the Defense Production Act and to help us 234 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: with supply change, because our way into recovery stems on 235 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: us be able to have mass scale, life scale testing 236 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: so we know who have had the virus before so 237 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: they can be the first to get back to work. 238 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: But New York can't do this alone. We don't have 239 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: the access to the chemicals that are necessary to swabs, 240 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 1: and the federal government, treating this as a national state 241 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: of emergency, has the power to invoke to deploy this 242 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: so states like New York can move faster. Because no 243 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: one is more anxious to reopen our economy than the 244 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: governor and myself, So that's what this conversation is about. 245 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 1: But also continuing to ask for more money in the 246 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: next stimulus plan because states are taken on the chin, 247 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: states like New York more money, and the Conservatives are 248 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 1: gonna say, no, we don't want to do that. Where 249 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 1: would that money go to? If you get a jillion 250 00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: dollars from Washington, where will it go? Well, first of all, 251 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: our revenues are gone down to a trickle. I mean 252 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: State of New York is projecting to lose at least 253 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: fifteen billion dollars in revenues in this budget year, which 254 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: paralyzes our ability to continue to fund local governments and 255 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: schools and hospitals and the many programs that are just 256 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: part of living in New York. And that's that's our challenge. 257 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: How we meet that. In addition to the exorbitant expenses 258 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: that have accrued from combating this pandemic, the extra costs 259 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: for ppe production, protective equipment, of having to purchase ventilators 260 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: at exorbitant prices because we are competing in a global market, 261 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: and also just the health care workers, how we're reimbursing 262 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: and supporting the hospitals to cover all these extraordinary costs, 263 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: So we have more costs, we have less revenue. We 264 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: are in a state of crisis in terms of our 265 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: fiscal state, but our main focus right now is just 266 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: saving people's lives and continuing to make the trend of 267 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: new cases continued downward in hospitalizations. So we're spilling liddle 268 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: the heat of this, but very kind of the fact 269 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: that the federal government, we hope will understand why a 270 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: place like New York, how does hit placed in the world, 271 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: needs additional help from the Feds to help us just 272 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: get back to some semblance of normal respect to funding 273 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: essential programs in the state of New York. And Kathy, 274 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: I was just looking at the Unemployment Trust Fund balance 275 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: in New York, which has been depleted by almost half, 276 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: almost entirely given from February through mid April to fight 277 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: the coronavirus is effects, namely people filing for unemployment. How 278 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: much longer do you have before that's gone. I don't 279 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: have a date when that's going to run out, but 280 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right that there is tremendous stress on a 281 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: system that think about how we normally would handle maybe 282 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: fifty even phone calls a week that went from fifty 283 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: thousand to ten million over a phenomenally short period of time. 284 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: We have allocated now people on the call lines, we've 285 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: redone our website, We've tried to make the whole process 286 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: of applying your But the problem is is that there's 287 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: a finite amount of money in that fund. So you're 288 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right, this is just another area where New 289 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: York State could see a shortfall. But the last thing 290 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: we ever want to stay to New Yorkers who have 291 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: been hit hard and lost their job and are just 292 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: reeling in disbelief of what situation has been wrought on 293 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: their families that we can't say them, there's not money 294 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: for you to cover unemployment. So we will have to 295 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: figure that out as well. And that's just another challenge. 296 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: And why settled assistance in the next stimulus, along with 297 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: small businesses, along with our farmers and a lot of 298 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: other entities. Don't forget the five billion dollars that Governor 299 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: Culmo and Republican Larry Hogan, the chair of the National 300 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 1: Governments Association are begging for. Just help us with this 301 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: and help us get through this time. Kathy, just real 302 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: quick care of my older son said to me yesterday, 303 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: do you think that in six months time everything is 304 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: going to be back to normal. And I said no, 305 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: and he said, what about a year? What do you 306 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: think a year would be nice? We don't know. I mean, 307 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: we we are dealing with the su unknown here. This 308 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: is unprecedented. So for us as elected officials to try 309 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 1: to figure out like a timeline we're in the throes 310 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 1: of a crisis. We want to see the light at 311 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 1: the end of final We're starting to see a glimmer 312 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 1: of it. But we also just recognize that this is 313 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: going to take some time. And in addition, what is 314 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: normal going to look like? People are going to feel 315 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 1: comfortable going into large venues and on the subway system, 316 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: in into their workplace. So I think the broad the 317 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: broad based testing is going to be what gives people 318 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 1: some level of comfort. But certainly a vaccination that is 319 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 1: widely administrator is what's going to give people the sense 320 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 1: like I can go out, I'm going to be saved, 321 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: my children are going to be fine, and now we'll 322 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 1: start creeping back up to the old normal, which may 323 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: be now an improved normal. We have an opportunity here 324 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: to reimagine all of our delivery systems of services transportation, healthcare. Uh, 325 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: this is an opportunity that we've created a task force 326 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: with elected officials, including Mayor of New York City, the 327 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 1: county executives of Westchester, Naston Suffolk, and I've asked them 328 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: to help us reimagine the new economy going forward to 329 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 1: New York. So, so that's important but right now, and 330 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 1: I appreciate it, and you mentioned me, I'm working together. 331 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 1: I was a member of Congress and so I saw 332 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: gridlock firsthand. I know what this function looks like. And 333 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: I think what the government doing is creating an opportunity 334 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: that wasn't there before. But I do want to correct 335 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: one thing I have. I've been a lifelong member of 336 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. The Conservatives supported me as well as 337 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 1: party way back when I was running a few years ago. Okay, okay, 338 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: I'm a proud, very good Democrat in my entire life. 339 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: Very good. We gotta leave it there, Lieutenant Governor. Thank you. Someone. 340 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 1: It's Cathy Hockle Uh today with us we continue. Our 341 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: discussion was from the Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing. 342 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: Michelle Patch joins us as she speaks about the health 343 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: workers of this pandemic. As you mentioned. Our nurses are UH, 344 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: physicians are UM, all of our health care workers UM 345 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: are working around the clock right now to try and 346 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:17,360 Speaker 1: UM fight against this virus UM. And what we've seen 347 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 1: after other disasters like I'm thinking, for instance, hurricanes or tornadoes, 348 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: or the tragedies that we UM all experienced around nine eleven, 349 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: they're these fairly predictable phases that we go through collectively. 350 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 1: And it starts with the impact of the disaster when 351 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: it first hits UM. We're going to experience fear and confusion, right, 352 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: this sounds very familiar to us, right, difficult people leaving 353 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: it is even happening, and and we make extraordinary effort 354 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 1: to protect ourselves and safeguard ourselves and our families UM. 355 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 1: And then we move into what we see as kind 356 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: of this heroic phase when we have a great deal 357 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 1: of activity happening. Our adrenaline is surgery. We're all ramping 358 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: up to help UM, and it moves quickly into what 359 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: is called by UM many as this honeymoon shase. We're 360 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: bonding back together and disaster assistance is coming online and 361 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 1: is active. We're optimistic, we're gonna get through this, We're 362 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: gonna get back to normal quickly, and unfortunately that doesn't 363 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: last long UM, and we tend to move into disillusionment. 364 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: We realize what those limitations of our disaster assistances, and 365 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: we've been working so hard it becomes extraordinarily exhausting physically 366 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 1: and mentally UM, and negative responses to those stressors start 367 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: to come out. UM. When that demand for help starts 368 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 1: out stripping our resources, we it makes sense. We feel lost, 369 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 1: we're abandoned, we feel angry, right, and that can take 370 00:20:55,200 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 1: months to years before moving into reconstruction and recovery phase. So, Professor, 371 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: what is the number one advice to actually try and 372 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,199 Speaker 1: bolster each other, but also for for people in the 373 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 1: front line in this very difficult time. Sure, right now 374 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: we're somewhere between a honeymoon and disillusionment, right and we're 375 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: kind of moving back and forth between those. UM. We 376 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 1: have many who are really maintaining an optimistic stance and 377 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 1: communities working together or providing whatever they can uh to 378 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 1: fight this virus. We're also seeing increasing conflict and voices 379 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 1: of those wanting to move on to open back up 380 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: to businesses. UM. We have those who are tired and 381 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 1: angry and worried, and they don't they worry, they don't 382 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: have what they have to safely continue, and they're physically 383 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: and mentally exhausted. They realize, UM, very much of this 384 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: is a marathon. So and bolstering each other will require 385 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: actively caring for ourselves and each other. UM. Continuing to 386 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: advocate for increasing supplies, increasing testing, supporting our leaders developing vaccine. 387 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: But it's okay to know it's not It's okay to 388 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: not be okay right now. UM. Continue to reach out 389 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: to others from a safe distance, take advantage of our 390 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 1: electronomy devices to connect UM and and really, uh, watch 391 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: out for our friends, our families, look to Spiritual Advisor's therapists. 392 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,239 Speaker 1: And it's okay to breathe. It's okay to cry and 393 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: UM and to keep moving forward. Michelle, one final question, 394 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: if I could. The President overnights decided he's going to 395 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: put out an executive order limiting or banning immigration in 396 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 1: the United States. He talks about the threats of the virus, 397 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 1: the invisible enemy that's out there. I was thunderstruck to 398 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: learn the of doctors and of nurses are immigrants. How 399 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 1: do those nurses become nurses in the United States? Do 400 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: they just show up and they're hired or is there licensing? 401 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: How is that process work at your Johns Hopkins University? 402 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 1: Sure yes, UM for UH. For from time immemorial, we 403 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,679 Speaker 1: have relied very heavily on UM, a wonderful workforce that 404 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: comes from everywhere across the globe. UM. As we have 405 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 1: individuals come to our country UM wanting who we have 406 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 1: practice nursing in other countries UM and want to continue 407 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: to do that here for us. In the United States, 408 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,239 Speaker 1: we do have each state has a different board of 409 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 1: Nursing UH that provides a licensure for those individuals. They 410 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 1: will have to take a licensure exam UM to show 411 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,959 Speaker 1: that they have that background UM. And and there are 412 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 1: also opportunities at various colleges and universities in the event 413 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 1: that they may be lacking something that was needed for 414 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 1: that licensure, that they can take that UM. There also 415 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: are many programs that UM encourage folks to come from 416 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 1: other countries UM and help support them in that transition. UH. 417 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: It is UM. It's worrisome UH to UM have limitations 418 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 1: at this point when we so desperately need UM folks 419 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 1: on the front line to turn away those who have 420 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: those skills and resources. Michelle Patch Johns Hopkins University. Thanks 421 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen 422 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform 423 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. 424 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio