WEBVTT - Episode 854: The Escalating Conflict Between Israel and Iran 0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:08.400 On this episode of News World. On Friday, June thirteenth, 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:12.560 Israel launched a surprise attack on dozens of targets inside Iran, 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:16.760 including nuclear sites, and killed many of the Iranian military's 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:20.400 top leaders. Israeli strikes have killed at least two hundred 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.360 and twenty four people in Iran and injured hundreds more. 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.600 On Monday, Iran struck back with a barrage of ballistic missiles, 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.240 hitting several Israeli cities and killing at least twenty four people. 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.519 But the question remains, will the United States joined the conflict? 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:40.159 Here to discuss the Israeli Iranian conflict, I'm really pleased 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:44.080 to welcome my guest, benham Ben Talablue, senior director of 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:47.839 the Foundation for Defensive Democracies Iran program, which, whether it 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.519 is something I pay constant attention to, the Foundation for 0:00:51.560 --> 0:01:04.960 Defensive Democracies is a remarkable institution. Ben, I'm welcome and 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:06.880 thank you for joining me on news World. 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:08.960 It's a pleasure to be back with you, sir. Thank you. 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:12.000 This is an amazing time that we're chatting. Can you 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:16.839 help us understand the scale and significance of Israel's campaign 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.240 and why it is different from past campaigns. 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.320 Well, first and foremost, this is the longest ever. We're 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:27.319 in day five right now of the overt Israeli Ron 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:31.080 shooting war, but this is the longest ever campaign on 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:35.760 Iranian territory since the nineteen seventy nine revolution that follows 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:38.760 the nineteen eighty to nineteen eighty eight Iran Iraq War 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.240 that was actually the longest conventional war of the twentieth century. 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:46.000 It's something that is often forgotten in history books. Since 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:48.720 the nineteen seventy nine revolution, Iran has carried out a 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:52.480 shadow war, a proxy war against Israel that really came 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.320 to a head and the post October sevent mid least, 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:58.320 when it crept out of the shadows twice, once in 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:01.600 April and once in October with direct ballistic missile attacks 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:05.200 from Iranian territory to Israeli territory, something we never saw 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.080 even during the Cold War, meaning a non nuclear weapons 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:11.519 state fire nuclear capable ballistic missiles at a nuclear weapons 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:14.639 state and then lived to tell the tale. These attacks 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:18.480 by Israel on June twelve, June thirteen were coordinated, they 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.600 were synchronized. They took out the military brain trust of 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:25.080 the Islamic Revolutionary guardcore the regime even in day five, 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.120 if you asked me, is still phased, is still struggling 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.079 to respond and Israel if we're looking at the military 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.520 performance of this, and I'm happy to get the politics 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.560 and the nuclear side as well, if we're looking at 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.760 the military performance to this, they have taken the regime's 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:42.920 greatest quantitative assets, it's ballistic missile arsenal, which is the 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:46.920 largest in the entire Middle East, and quickly attriting it 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.520 and cutting it such that the regime is facing a 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:53.440 user lose problem as well as of course what to fire, 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.600 because the Israelis have actually created a drone base on 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.720 Iranian territory that is targeting Iranian ballistic missiles as soon 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.240 as they pop up on their launchers before they can 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:05.840 be fired. So it's turned the regime's quantitative advantage on 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:08.760 its head, and the longer this conflict goes on, the 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:12.119 million dollar question will increasingly become what role will Uncle 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:14.120 Sam play? What role would the US play in all 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:16.480 of this? And what role can the Iran people play 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:17.280 in all of this? 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:21.240 The Israeli campaign clearly had been planned for months and 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:25.160 they'd thought it all through, and they have remarkable penetration 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.040 of Iran. I've been watching a TV series you may 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:33.240 have seen called Tehran, which is basically the Mozad operating 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:38.520 literally inside Iranian territory with help from Iranians who are 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.440 either opposed to the regime or for some other reason 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.440 are willing to work with the Israelis. And apparently, if 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:48.000 I understand it, one of the pieces of this campaign 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:53.400 was that actually built the equivalent of a drone factory 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:59.480 inside Tehran and launched drones from inside Tehran against various 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.280 Iranians assets in a way which is almost like science fiction. 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.440 Like science fiction but also part of the reality of 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:11.280 I would really say the two decade chasm that we've 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.280 seen between the state in Iran and the street in Iran, 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:16.120 because let me tell you, sir I know you've mentioned 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:19.440 this before, the people in Iran are no fans of 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.000 the government in Iran. But also the people in Iran 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:25.080 are quite patriotic, quite nationalist. I myself of the first 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:27.720 generation American of the Iranian ancestry and born and raised 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.640 here in the States. Sometimes it's quite obviously Iranians are 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:33.760 among the most nationalistic of any peoples in the region. 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.080 So one could say how would this happen in an 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:40.160 exceptionally nationalist population where the conventional wisdom is that if 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:42.279 there was an attack, they would always be a rally. 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:45.440 And it is because of the chasm between the state 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:47.360 and the street. It is because of the fact that 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:50.960 the regime is Islamist and the people is nationalists, because 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.680 the regime is old and the people are young, and 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:56.159 these two things are like water and oil. And the 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.520 Iranian people have been saying this loud and proud in 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.080 their multiple iterations anti regime protest, even dating back in 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.520 two thousand and nine, when they said, not Gaza, not Lebanon, 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:08.760 my life only before Iran. And you've seen Iranian policy 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.760 go exactly one hundred and eighty degrees in the opposite direction, 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.840 sacrificing the Iranian national interest and the public good and 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:17.880 the health and welfare of the average Iranian on the 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.320 altar of exporting the nineteen seventy nine revolution to the 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.280 Eastern Mediterranean. I have to tell you there was a 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.960 story in Axios this weekend that reminded me of something 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:32.680 a actual former Iranian intelligence minister had said. It was 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:35.440 an intelligence minister from the mid twenty tens who was 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:38.640 saying this in twenty twenty one, and he was saying 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:42.600 that the level of Mosad penetration in Iran is astronomical, 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:44.240 And he was saying this in twenty twenty one, so 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:46.920 imagine what it must be in twenty twenty five. And 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:52.320 he essentially intonated that at that time, no regime official 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:56.080 should sleep safely at night because of this level of penetration. 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.320 And he actually blamed it, he himself a cleric, he 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:02.480 himself an eye, he himself an intel minister. He blamed 0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:05.800 it on the regime's ideology and its warring factions, and 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.880 it's creating of a state within the state, and just 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.240 looking from the outside, the regime has been policing cyberspace, 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.880 the regime has been policing hijabs. But the gross incompetence 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:19.159 of the regime, coupled with the population's willingness to contest 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:22.080 this regime at any cost, is exactly how, in my view, 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.320 you get the Israelis to be able to build its 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:26.880 own base right under the nose of the Ietolas. 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:31.320 I'm curious about this because there's an argument apparently underway 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:36.400 that the establishment, including the intelligence community, had given the 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:41.240 Iranians pretty high level of capability, But there were analysts 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:44.479 who deeply disagreed and said, look, this kind of a 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:48.360 regime can't be very competent because it's not going to 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:50.760 be able to reward merit, and it's not going to 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.120 be able to promote people purely based on merit because 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:57.440 it'll be so busy first of all, being corrupted financially 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:02.000 and second worried about abs loyal to the Ayatola. And 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.440 it does seem that in many ways, starting with a 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:10.800 remarkable Israeli campaign in the spring where they gain total 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:14.800 air dominance to an embarrassing degree for the Russians, prove 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:20.280 that American technology was simply generations ahead of the Russian 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:22.800 air defense systems. But if you come all the way 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:26.560 through this, it does seem like there's a certain lacking 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:31.200 level of just plane everyday competence in the Iranian system 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:31.680 right now. 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:37.280 Certainly, And if you're starting at a baseline negative number, 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:41.200 once that negative number meets an exogenous shock like four 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:44.720 point thirty in the morning, your entire military commanding heights, 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:48.440 your entire strategic brain trust being killed in a missile attack, 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.080 then you're going to be performing even worse. So it's 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:52.720 going to take quite a bit of time to get 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:54.240 out a hole. And that's what I mean when I 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.760 say I think even in day five of this conflict, 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:00.440 the regime itself is quite shattered. And you mentioned this 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:05.640 ideological versus technical versus competency Paradigmond problem, and these things 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:09.080 are found these warring with one another in various elements 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.000 of the Iranian system, in the political establishment, in the 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:16.080 military establishment, in the security services, even within the clergy. 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.960 You see this tug of war between politics and competence, 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:23.200 and this is a regime that actually rewards loyalty rather 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:26.880 than that competence. There is a phrase in Persian. I'll 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.360 say it came from the Cultural Revolution in the nineteen 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:33.720 eighties when the Homaanists were purifying the universities and everything else. 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:39.920 The phrase was takva not tavona, meaning righteousness not competence. 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.240 They would reward righteousness, they would reward loyalty, and like 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:47.040 any other authoritarian regime that is remotely afraid of anything military, 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:49.920 they engage in coup proofing, just as next door neighbor 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:53.040 former Saddam used to do. And this is a very 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:57.560 toxic combination. If you are unpopular and you're also trying 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:02.240 to literally fight technologically superior adversaries like the Israelis or 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.640 even the Americans. So this was all a witches brew 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:05.560 in my view. 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:10.760 From that perspective, I've written several things arguing that the 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.960 real goal has to be a regime change, not just 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:17.719 taking out the nuclear system, because if they take out 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.800 the nuclear system, but the regime says in charge, eventually 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:24.600 they'll rebuild it. So if you're really serious about getting 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:28.920 to a peaceful, long thirty forty to fifty year coexistence, 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.000 you really have to find a way to break the 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:35.640 entire system of the Mollah dictatorship. What would your take 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:36.080 on that be. 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:38.400 I think we have to have at this point in 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:41.280 time the courage of our convictions to say that two 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:45.440 words that are perhaps the fifth rail of politics in Washington, DC, 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.520 which is regime change. As we speak, there's a huge 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:51.040 Republican I don't want to say civil war, but a 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.240 huge Republican internal struggle over the soul of the party, 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:56.640 over what kind of Republican state craft we're going to 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:59.160 see in the twenty first century. I think Donald Trump 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.000 has done a good job balancing these two competing visions 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:06.720 and value sets of isolationism versus internationalism. They're both organic 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:10.440 in the American policy and body politique. But as it 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:13.160 relates to Iran, there aren't many places in the Middleast, 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.640 with the exception of Israel, where you can marry your 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:19.680 head and your heart. And given that, politically, voters in 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:21.760 this country have been voting to do less in the 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:24.640 Middle East and not more. Since the Bush Too administration, 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.560 every president has come in Obama, Trump bied in Trump 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:31.839 again trying to actually deliver on that promises and getting 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.280 stuck back in. I think the only real way you 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:36.680 create the political space to do that and deal with 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.600 great power competition is if you flip the script on 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:42.440 the iatolas. Because there's no straight line in the world 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:46.080 where you appease the ietolas and counter the CCP. You 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.440 have to deal with the most urgent state threat there. 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:53.760 Trump has been shifting. He's always said pretty clearly there 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:56.959 cannot be an Iranian nuclear weapon. They did a lot 0:10:57.000 --> 0:10:59.480 of dances and met and all that stuff for sixty days, 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:03.679 but the bottom line was always if we have a deal, 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:06.400 it's going to mean no nuclear weapons. And now I 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.640 noticed in the last few days he's moving towards basically 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:12.560 saying to the Iranians, you know, it'd be very smart 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:16.880 of you to surrender before you're annihilated, which is a 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:23.280 pretty bleak direct statement. And my sense is that this 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:28.240 growing awareness that the nuclear program was much bigger than 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:33.280 we expected, the effort to build next generation ballistic missiles 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:36.400 that would have been extraordinarily dangerous to Israel are much bigger, 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.160 and I think for a lot of US, and I 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:44.800 think for almost all israelis the pictures of Iranian missiles 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:49.000 hitting Tehran and the simple thought what if one of 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:54.000 them had had a nuclear warhead pretty much has hardened 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.640 the line of both Israel and the Trump administration. At 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:01.679 least that's my sense. That we're now into struggle that's 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.600 probably not going to end with the Iatola still being 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:05.280 in charge. 0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:08.960 I think we could go based on the very fast 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:10.880 moving facts of the Crown, we could be going in 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.600 that direction. I still think the President means what he 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:17.240 says when he intonated ever since, even before entering office, 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:20.320 when he was campaigning in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen, that 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.600 he quote buys bad deals and makes them into good deals, 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:25.959 and that he tried to fix the Iran deal first, 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.000 and that he spent some time trying to negotiate it 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:30.720 now again in term two. I do think in that 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.800 world the president may see is really military action and 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:37.160 is really military prowess as actually a source of leverage. 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.440 To tell comedy. Listen, I'm the only thing that is 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.280 standing between you and certain death coming from these Raelies. 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:47.000 So dismantle or die. Dismantle or watch your program be 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.440 dismantled for you, or potentially even wash your regime be 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.920 dismantled for you. I mean, this has great implications for 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.640 the future of US foreign policy in the region, for sure, 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.280 as well as for the future of the US Israel 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.840 relationship based on how such a thing would be done. 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.520 But I certainly see the President trying to maximize all 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.520 of his options here, both on the diplomatic front, to 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.040 drive an exceptionally hard bargain, to make the IE tool, 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.040 to know that there is no way out but through. 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.040 To basically get the second Supreme Leader of Iran to 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.520 do what the first Supreme Leader of Iran did, which 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.959 is to realize what he's losing, as Komeni did in 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.240 the end of the Iran Iraq War, to drink the 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:27.480 proverbial poison chalice, but Also, I think the president actually 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.040 has to have what the forgive me the nine to 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:34.000 eleven Commission report warned about, which is imagination, and we 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.200 have to see this as an imagination issue. We have 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.360 to dare to imagine a fundamentally different Iran that doesn't 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.839 perpetually sucker the US in with a missile issue, woul 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.640 drone issue, with terrorism issue, a nuclear issue, that we 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:49.080 get to drive the conversation, and that fundamentally we will 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:52.040 always be reacting to something so long as this regime 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:53.960 is there and in power. 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.720 I mean assumes to me. Well, Trump has not talked 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:20.880 about regime change. The standard he's setting for an agreement 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:26.920 is almost impossible for this regime to achieve. It's pretty 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:29.720 clear that Trump is going to insist that they dismantle 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.480 all of It seems to mean that for the regime, 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.000 for the dictatorship, it may literally not be able to 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:39.000 handle the stress of that agreement. 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.560 That certainly is one view and is one reason why 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.680 many believe that Hamine has rejected obviously the dismantlement's lingo, 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:48.960 and it is also why he's held firm on something 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:52.200 like uranium and richmond, which, by the way, Iran has 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:55.040 not stopped doing for a single day since August two 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:56.800 thousand and six. I mean, that's the thing that really 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.120 got us into this crisis. Believe it or not, there 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:01.440 was a time when Europe and Russia and China and 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.800 America were passing multiple UN Security Council resolutions, all united 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.440 in the belief that there should be no enrichment in 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.000 the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly so long as they 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.440 were violating their safeguards agreements. But here we are nearly 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.960 two decades later and facing literally the exact same problem. 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:20.600 I think that is one theory, and another is that 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:24.200 I think you can get the Iatolas who fundamentally love 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:25.920 life more than you and me. You know, there's this 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.520 picture even among some of our friends, more republican or 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.720 more hawkish foreign policy circles, that see things through the 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:36.160 prism of ideology. And absolutely you have to understand the 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.920 revolutionary and Islamist and authoritarian ideology of Iran's clerics. It's 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.680 Islamism and Marxism and third Worldism and all of those dangerousisms. 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:49.200 But we shouldn't be ideological about ideology. And what I 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:50.880 mean by that is, if you speak to people who've 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:54.480 come from Iran. More recently, you will see that a cleric, 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:58.680 a theocrat is actually one of the most corrupt, opportunistic 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:02.240 peoplelog and ends as well as a means to an 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.520 end for those types of people. And I think in 0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:06.480 that kind of world, if they are really put to 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.200 the choice, if Trump really grabs their jugular, maximum pressure, 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.360 could work, could deliver. You have to put the adversary 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.760 in the position to have to make a mistake, to 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:19.920 drive them to choose between again their economy or the bomb, 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:23.400 or a dismantling or dying, to make it a lose 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.480 lose no matter what. And the art of the deal 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.640 is constantly making your adversary settle for the least bad 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:31.240 option with as little cost to you as possible. So 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:34.440 I think there was potential there for that. But nonetheless, 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.920 we are where we are now, and I think Trump's 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:40.360 leverage has significantly increased, but less we forget, ideology is 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.160 still powerful. There is a world in which the regime 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.640 does not want to take the Nathan Donald Trump, even 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.600 though technically they already have because for seven years they 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:52.400 said no negotiations with Trump, and then spring twenty twenty five, Okay, 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:54.720 we'll negotiate with Trump so long as it's indirect. 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.080 And now, of course they're saying, you know, we'll be 0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.000 glad to igo share with Trump if it was just 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.800 get as well as to stay up. Suddenly he's becoming 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.920 more desirable by comparison. One of the things I was 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.919 struck with, and I know you must have seen the 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:11.359 same thing, was the video of the Israelis hitting the 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:15.240 Iranian state broadcasting system. You may know since you speak 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.400 Farsi what she was saying at that moment, but had 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:22.080 a little bit of a throwback to Bagdad Bob, you know, 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.960 we can hang tough. This is not that bad. And 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.040 suddenly the studio gets bombed. Did you think that had 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:31.720 any significance? And do you think that it sent any 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:35.479 signal to the Iranian people about what was going on? 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:41.120 It absolutely had immense significance, both technical and political, because 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.919 this is a TV station that is the state broadcasting 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.680 arm of the government of the Islamic Republic that brings 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:51.320 the regimes, views, values, and interest onto the TV screens 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:54.879 and multimedia of Iranian citizen v This is a TV 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:57.719 station I think was sanctioned under the Obama administration, if 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:00.159 I'm not mistaken, So way back in the day. It 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:03.960 coordinates with the Ministry of Intelligence and Islamic Revolutionary Guard corp. 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:08.240 It airs tortured and false confessions of everybody, from Iranian 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:12.320 reformists to regular citizens to even dual nationals. It's parated. 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:16.000 It really is spewing the invected and is synonymous with 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:20.640 that kind of corrupt revolutionary resistance ideology. And you are right, 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.320 if memory serves me correct. She was going on the presenter, 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.480 I think, was going on a ti rate about resistance 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.280 in America and then had to obviously flee the scene 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:31.560 because of the strike. But there's also an equally chilling, 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.520 powerful video from a little bit later on of that 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.719 strike that was also making its way around on Persian 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:41.200 social media. And it was from a distance seeing that building. 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:45.280 It's the Irib Islamic Republic of Iran broadcasting. It was 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:48.480 that building in Tehran viewed from a distance, potentially from 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.240 a camera or drone, who knows, with the call to 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.000 prayer in the background, and the entire edifice of this 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:58.080 one building, nothing else but just this one building burning 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.800 and with black smoke rising. And that is the kind 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:03.480 of stuff that in the medium term, not right now, 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:06.480 because bombs are still falling, and Iranian citizens, regardless of 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:10.080 their political orientation, are all in survival mode, particularly the 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:14.600 nearly ten million that live in the capital Tehran. But nonetheless, 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:16.480 this is the stuff that can stiffen the spine of 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:19.480 anti regime Iranians. And you know, if I had one 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.359 second to advertise to the Israelis, you know I'm not 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:24.680 here in the strike world. I still think there was 0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:27.920 room for a lot more maximum pressure. But the Israelis 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:32.200 need to be translating these targets, emotionally, translating these targets 0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:35.240 for the Iranian audience. Why is it important that the 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.120 Israelis have struck Irib? Why is it important that these 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:40.920 rallies have struck the commander of the Aerospace Force. It's 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:42.600 not just because this guy had his finger on the 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:44.879 trigger of the missiles going to Israel. It's because that 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:48.000 guy in January twenty twenty fired on a civilian airlinerer 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.240 killing over one hundred and seventy innocent people. Israel is 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:55.320 also dismantling the apparatus of repression, and that's why this 0:19:55.440 --> 0:20:00.000 strike on Irib the television is very politically and technically 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:01.160 significant in my view. 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:04.400 To take a point view reference. In twenty twenty two, 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:06.640 the US to part of the treasure this is under 0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:11.719 Biden released the press really saying they're designating the IRIB 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:16.320 in its subsidiaries not as objective media outlets, but rather 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:21.080 as a critical tool in the Iranian government's mass suppression 0:20:21.480 --> 0:20:25.439 and censorship campaign against its own people. They went on 0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:30.359 to say IRIB has produced and recently broadcast televised interviews 0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:34.240 of individuals being forced to confess that their relatives were 0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:38.280 not killed by Iranian authorities during nationwide protests, but died 0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:41.920 due to accidental, unrelated causes. And I assume that related 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:45.360 back to about two years ago when they killed five 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:50.560 hundred people for being part of an effect demonstrations exactly. 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:53.280 It was the post twenty twenty two to twenty three 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:56.520 women life freedom movement that was triggered by the killing 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.320 of an innocent girl in Tehron who was twenty two 0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:03.120 years old, was Massa Gina Amini for not properly wearing 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.520 her her job. She was beaten by security forces and 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:09.480 then sustained major mortal wounds that led to her death 0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:12.160 just a few days later in a hospital in Tehran. 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:15.760 Actually separated from her family and protests began that fall 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:19.240 twenty twenty two and mushroomed into the biggest ever anti 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:22.240 regime protests we saw since the nineteen seventy nine revolution. 0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:25.760 This is a regime where a young lady who didn't 0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:28.359 totally cover her hair, if I'm mon correctly, she had it, 0:21:28.440 --> 0:21:33.520 but it wasn't totally covered somehow infuriated the guards and 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:36.560 they beat her to death, and then that led to 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:40.080 a huge public outrage, which they then suppressed, I think 0:21:40.160 --> 0:21:43.840 with about five thousand arrests and five hundred killings. 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.200 And they followed that. There was a less advertised story, 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:49.320 but we actually had FTD. We created a tracker of 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.159 it because living and working in Washington, there's plenty of 0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:55.399 NGOs talk about women's rights and human's rights. We noticed 0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.920 there was a whole string of attacks on young schoolgirls, 0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:01.840 almost something out of the playbook of the Taliban, but 0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:04.679 by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. And 0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:08.680 they were basically chemical attacks, causing tons of basically young 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:12.240 teenage and preteen girls who are going to school to 0:22:12.320 --> 0:22:15.560 get sick. And this, in our view, was a direct campaign, 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:19.879 a state campaign against the next generation of Iran's best 0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.720 and brightest female youth, and this I think was some 0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:27.199 crazy deterrent basically WMD use by the state against society 0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:30.679 to instill fear. So yes, they married that campaign of 0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:35.400 killing and arrest and detention with this CW campaign as well, 0:22:35.400 --> 0:22:36.480 which is really horrifying. 0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:40.320 This is one of those rare regimes. They're not quite 0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:43.320