1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. On Friday, June thirteenth, 2 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: Israel launched a surprise attack on dozens of targets inside Iran, 3 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 1: including nuclear sites, and killed many of the Iranian military's 4 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: top leaders. Israeli strikes have killed at least two hundred 5 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: and twenty four people in Iran and injured hundreds more. 6 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: On Monday, Iran struck back with a barrage of ballistic missiles, 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: hitting several Israeli cities and killing at least twenty four people. 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 1: But the question remains, will the United States joined the conflict? 9 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: Here to discuss the Israeli Iranian conflict, I'm really pleased 10 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: to welcome my guest, benham Ben Talablue, senior director of 11 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: the Foundation for Defensive Democracies Iran program, which, whether it 12 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 1: is something I pay constant attention to, the Foundation for 13 00:00:51,560 --> 00:01:04,960 Speaker 1: Defensive Democracies is a remarkable institution. Ben, I'm welcome and 14 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: thank you for joining me on news World. 15 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 2: It's a pleasure to be back with you, sir. Thank you. 16 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: This is an amazing time that we're chatting. Can you 17 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 1: help us understand the scale and significance of Israel's campaign 18 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: and why it is different from past campaigns. 19 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 2: Well, first and foremost, this is the longest ever. We're 20 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 2: in day five right now of the overt Israeli Ron 21 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: shooting war, but this is the longest ever campaign on 22 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 2: Iranian territory since the nineteen seventy nine revolution that follows 23 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 2: the nineteen eighty to nineteen eighty eight Iran Iraq War 24 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: that was actually the longest conventional war of the twentieth century. 25 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: It's something that is often forgotten in history books. Since 26 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: the nineteen seventy nine revolution, Iran has carried out a 27 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 2: shadow war, a proxy war against Israel that really came 28 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 2: to a head and the post October sevent mid least, 29 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 2: when it crept out of the shadows twice, once in 30 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 2: April and once in October with direct ballistic missile attacks 31 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 2: from Iranian territory to Israeli territory, something we never saw 32 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 2: even during the Cold War, meaning a non nuclear weapons 33 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 2: state fire nuclear capable ballistic missiles at a nuclear weapons 34 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 2: state and then lived to tell the tale. These attacks 35 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: by Israel on June twelve, June thirteen were coordinated, they 36 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: were synchronized. They took out the military brain trust of 37 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 2: the Islamic Revolutionary guardcore the regime even in day five, 38 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 2: if you asked me, is still phased, is still struggling 39 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 2: to respond and Israel if we're looking at the military 40 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 2: performance of this, and I'm happy to get the politics 41 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: and the nuclear side as well, if we're looking at 42 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: the military performance to this, they have taken the regime's 43 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 2: greatest quantitative assets, it's ballistic missile arsenal, which is the 44 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 2: largest in the entire Middle East, and quickly attriting it 45 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 2: and cutting it such that the regime is facing a 46 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: user lose problem as well as of course what to fire, 47 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 2: because the Israelis have actually created a drone base on 48 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 2: Iranian territory that is targeting Iranian ballistic missiles as soon 49 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 2: as they pop up on their launchers before they can 50 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 2: be fired. So it's turned the regime's quantitative advantage on 51 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 2: its head, and the longer this conflict goes on, the 52 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 2: million dollar question will increasingly become what role will Uncle 53 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 2: Sam play? What role would the US play in all 54 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 2: of this? And what role can the Iran people play 55 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 2: in all of this? 56 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: The Israeli campaign clearly had been planned for months and 57 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: they'd thought it all through, and they have remarkable penetration 58 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 1: of Iran. I've been watching a TV series you may 59 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: have seen called Tehran, which is basically the Mozad operating 60 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: literally inside Iranian territory with help from Iranians who are 61 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: either opposed to the regime or for some other reason 62 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: are willing to work with the Israelis. And apparently, if 63 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: I understand it, one of the pieces of this campaign 64 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: was that actually built the equivalent of a drone factory 65 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: inside Tehran and launched drones from inside Tehran against various 66 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: Iranians assets in a way which is almost like science fiction. 67 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: Like science fiction but also part of the reality of 68 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 2: I would really say the two decade chasm that we've 69 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: seen between the state in Iran and the street in Iran, 70 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: because let me tell you, sir I know you've mentioned 71 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 2: this before, the people in Iran are no fans of 72 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: the government in Iran. But also the people in Iran 73 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 2: are quite patriotic, quite nationalist. I myself of the first 74 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 2: generation American of the Iranian ancestry and born and raised 75 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 2: here in the States. Sometimes it's quite obviously Iranians are 76 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 2: among the most nationalistic of any peoples in the region. 77 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: So one could say how would this happen in an 78 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: exceptionally nationalist population where the conventional wisdom is that if 79 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 2: there was an attack, they would always be a rally. 80 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: And it is because of the chasm between the state 81 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: and the street. It is because of the fact that 82 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 2: the regime is Islamist and the people is nationalists, because 83 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 2: the regime is old and the people are young, and 84 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 2: these two things are like water and oil. And the 85 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 2: Iranian people have been saying this loud and proud in 86 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: their multiple iterations anti regime protest, even dating back in 87 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 2: two thousand and nine, when they said, not Gaza, not Lebanon, 88 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 2: my life only before Iran. And you've seen Iranian policy 89 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 2: go exactly one hundred and eighty degrees in the opposite direction, 90 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 2: sacrificing the Iranian national interest and the public good and 91 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: the health and welfare of the average Iranian on the 92 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: altar of exporting the nineteen seventy nine revolution to the 93 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 2: Eastern Mediterranean. I have to tell you there was a 94 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: story in Axios this weekend that reminded me of something 95 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 2: a actual former Iranian intelligence minister had said. It was 96 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 2: an intelligence minister from the mid twenty tens who was 97 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 2: saying this in twenty twenty one, and he was saying 98 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 2: that the level of Mosad penetration in Iran is astronomical, 99 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 2: And he was saying this in twenty twenty one, so 100 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 2: imagine what it must be in twenty twenty five. And 101 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: he essentially intonated that at that time, no regime official 102 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: should sleep safely at night because of this level of penetration. 103 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 2: And he actually blamed it, he himself a cleric, he 104 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 2: himself an eye, he himself an intel minister. He blamed 105 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 2: it on the regime's ideology and its warring factions, and 106 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 2: it's creating of a state within the state, and just 107 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 2: looking from the outside, the regime has been policing cyberspace, 108 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 2: the regime has been policing hijabs. But the gross incompetence 109 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 2: of the regime, coupled with the population's willingness to contest 110 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: this regime at any cost, is exactly how, in my view, 111 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 2: you get the Israelis to be able to build its 112 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: own base right under the nose of the Ietolas. 113 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: I'm curious about this because there's an argument apparently underway 114 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: that the establishment, including the intelligence community, had given the 115 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: Iranians pretty high level of capability, But there were analysts 116 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,479 Speaker 1: who deeply disagreed and said, look, this kind of a 117 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 1: regime can't be very competent because it's not going to 118 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: be able to reward merit, and it's not going to 119 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: be able to promote people purely based on merit because 120 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: it'll be so busy first of all, being corrupted financially 121 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: and second worried about abs loyal to the Ayatola. And 122 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: it does seem that in many ways, starting with a 123 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: remarkable Israeli campaign in the spring where they gain total 124 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: air dominance to an embarrassing degree for the Russians, prove 125 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: that American technology was simply generations ahead of the Russian 126 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: air defense systems. But if you come all the way 127 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: through this, it does seem like there's a certain lacking 128 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: level of just plane everyday competence in the Iranian system 129 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 1: right now. 130 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: Certainly, And if you're starting at a baseline negative number, 131 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: once that negative number meets an exogenous shock like four 132 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: point thirty in the morning, your entire military commanding heights, 133 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 2: your entire strategic brain trust being killed in a missile attack, 134 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 2: then you're going to be performing even worse. So it's 135 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 2: going to take quite a bit of time to get 136 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 2: out a hole. And that's what I mean when I 137 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: say I think even in day five of this conflict, 138 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 2: the regime itself is quite shattered. And you mentioned this 139 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: ideological versus technical versus competency Paradigmond problem, and these things 140 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 2: are found these warring with one another in various elements 141 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 2: of the Iranian system, in the political establishment, in the 142 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 2: military establishment, in the security services, even within the clergy. 143 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: You see this tug of war between politics and competence, 144 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 2: and this is a regime that actually rewards loyalty rather 145 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 2: than that competence. There is a phrase in Persian. I'll 146 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 2: say it came from the Cultural Revolution in the nineteen 147 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 2: eighties when the Homaanists were purifying the universities and everything else. 148 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: The phrase was takva not tavona, meaning righteousness not competence. 149 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 2: They would reward righteousness, they would reward loyalty, and like 150 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: any other authoritarian regime that is remotely afraid of anything military, 151 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 2: they engage in coup proofing, just as next door neighbor 152 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 2: former Saddam used to do. And this is a very 153 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 2: toxic combination. If you are unpopular and you're also trying 154 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 2: to literally fight technologically superior adversaries like the Israelis or 155 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 2: even the Americans. So this was all a witches brew 156 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 2: in my view. 157 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: From that perspective, I've written several things arguing that the 158 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: real goal has to be a regime change, not just 159 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,719 Speaker 1: taking out the nuclear system, because if they take out 160 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: the nuclear system, but the regime says in charge, eventually 161 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: they'll rebuild it. So if you're really serious about getting 162 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: to a peaceful, long thirty forty to fifty year coexistence, 163 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: you really have to find a way to break the 164 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: entire system of the Mollah dictatorship. What would your take 165 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 1: on that be. 166 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: I think we have to have at this point in 167 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 2: time the courage of our convictions to say that two 168 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 2: words that are perhaps the fifth rail of politics in Washington, DC, 169 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: which is regime change. As we speak, there's a huge 170 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 2: Republican I don't want to say civil war, but a 171 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 2: huge Republican internal struggle over the soul of the party, 172 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 2: over what kind of Republican state craft we're going to 173 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 2: see in the twenty first century. I think Donald Trump 174 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 2: has done a good job balancing these two competing visions 175 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 2: and value sets of isolationism versus internationalism. They're both organic 176 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 2: in the American policy and body politique. But as it 177 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 2: relates to Iran, there aren't many places in the Middleast, 178 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 2: with the exception of Israel, where you can marry your 179 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 2: head and your heart. And given that, politically, voters in 180 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: this country have been voting to do less in the 181 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 2: Middle East and not more. Since the Bush Too administration, 182 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 2: every president has come in Obama, Trump bied in Trump 183 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,839 Speaker 2: again trying to actually deliver on that promises and getting 184 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: stuck back in. I think the only real way you 185 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 2: create the political space to do that and deal with 186 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 2: great power competition is if you flip the script on 187 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 2: the iatolas. Because there's no straight line in the world 188 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 2: where you appease the ietolas and counter the CCP. You 189 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 2: have to deal with the most urgent state threat there. 190 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: Trump has been shifting. He's always said pretty clearly there 191 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 1: cannot be an Iranian nuclear weapon. They did a lot 192 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: of dances and met and all that stuff for sixty days, 193 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: but the bottom line was always if we have a deal, 194 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: it's going to mean no nuclear weapons. And now I 195 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: noticed in the last few days he's moving towards basically 196 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 1: saying to the Iranians, you know, it'd be very smart 197 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: of you to surrender before you're annihilated, which is a 198 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: pretty bleak direct statement. And my sense is that this 199 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: growing awareness that the nuclear program was much bigger than 200 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: we expected, the effort to build next generation ballistic missiles 201 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: that would have been extraordinarily dangerous to Israel are much bigger, 202 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: and I think for a lot of US, and I 203 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: think for almost all israelis the pictures of Iranian missiles 204 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: hitting Tehran and the simple thought what if one of 205 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: them had had a nuclear warhead pretty much has hardened 206 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: the line of both Israel and the Trump administration. At 207 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 1: least that's my sense. That we're now into struggle that's 208 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: probably not going to end with the Iatola still being 209 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: in charge. 210 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 2: I think we could go based on the very fast 211 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 2: moving facts of the Crown, we could be going in 212 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 2: that direction. I still think the President means what he 213 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 2: says when he intonated ever since, even before entering office, 214 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 2: when he was campaigning in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen, that 215 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 2: he quote buys bad deals and makes them into good deals, 216 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 2: and that he tried to fix the Iran deal first, 217 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: and that he spent some time trying to negotiate it 218 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 2: now again in term two. I do think in that 219 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 2: world the president may see is really military action and 220 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 2: is really military prowess as actually a source of leverage. 221 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 2: To tell comedy. Listen, I'm the only thing that is 222 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: standing between you and certain death coming from these Raelies. 223 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 2: So dismantle or die. Dismantle or watch your program be 224 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 2: dismantled for you, or potentially even wash your regime be 225 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: dismantled for you. I mean, this has great implications for 226 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 2: the future of US foreign policy in the region, for sure, 227 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 2: as well as for the future of the US Israel 228 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 2: relationship based on how such a thing would be done. 229 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 2: But I certainly see the President trying to maximize all 230 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 2: of his options here, both on the diplomatic front, to 231 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: drive an exceptionally hard bargain, to make the IE tool, 232 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 2: to know that there is no way out but through. 233 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 2: To basically get the second Supreme Leader of Iran to 234 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 2: do what the first Supreme Leader of Iran did, which 235 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 2: is to realize what he's losing, as Komeni did in 236 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 2: the end of the Iran Iraq War, to drink the 237 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 2: proverbial poison chalice, but Also, I think the president actually 238 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: has to have what the forgive me the nine to 239 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 2: eleven Commission report warned about, which is imagination, and we 240 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 2: have to see this as an imagination issue. We have 241 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 2: to dare to imagine a fundamentally different Iran that doesn't 242 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 2: perpetually sucker the US in with a missile issue, woul 243 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 2: drone issue, with terrorism issue, a nuclear issue, that we 244 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 2: get to drive the conversation, and that fundamentally we will 245 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 2: always be reacting to something so long as this regime 246 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 2: is there and in power. 247 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: I mean assumes to me. Well, Trump has not talked 248 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: about regime change. The standard he's setting for an agreement 249 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: is almost impossible for this regime to achieve. It's pretty 250 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: clear that Trump is going to insist that they dismantle 251 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: all of It seems to mean that for the regime, 252 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: for the dictatorship, it may literally not be able to 253 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: handle the stress of that agreement. 254 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 2: That certainly is one view and is one reason why 255 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 2: many believe that Hamine has rejected obviously the dismantlement's lingo, 256 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 2: and it is also why he's held firm on something 257 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 2: like uranium and richmond, which, by the way, Iran has 258 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 2: not stopped doing for a single day since August two 259 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 2: thousand and six. I mean, that's the thing that really 260 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 2: got us into this crisis. Believe it or not, there 261 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 2: was a time when Europe and Russia and China and 262 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 2: America were passing multiple UN Security Council resolutions, all united 263 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 2: in the belief that there should be no enrichment in 264 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 2: the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly so long as they 265 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 2: were violating their safeguards agreements. But here we are nearly 266 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 2: two decades later and facing literally the exact same problem. 267 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 2: I think that is one theory, and another is that 268 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 2: I think you can get the Iatolas who fundamentally love 269 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: life more than you and me. You know, there's this 270 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 2: picture even among some of our friends, more republican or 271 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 2: more hawkish foreign policy circles, that see things through the 272 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 2: prism of ideology. And absolutely you have to understand the 273 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 2: revolutionary and Islamist and authoritarian ideology of Iran's clerics. It's 274 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 2: Islamism and Marxism and third Worldism and all of those dangerousisms. 275 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 2: But we shouldn't be ideological about ideology. And what I 276 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 2: mean by that is, if you speak to people who've 277 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 2: come from Iran. More recently, you will see that a cleric, 278 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 2: a theocrat is actually one of the most corrupt, opportunistic 279 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 2: peoplelog and ends as well as a means to an 280 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 2: end for those types of people. And I think in 281 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 2: that kind of world, if they are really put to 282 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 2: the choice, if Trump really grabs their jugular, maximum pressure, 283 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 2: could work, could deliver. You have to put the adversary 284 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 2: in the position to have to make a mistake, to 285 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: drive them to choose between again their economy or the bomb, 286 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 2: or a dismantling or dying, to make it a lose 287 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 2: lose no matter what. And the art of the deal 288 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 2: is constantly making your adversary settle for the least bad 289 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 2: option with as little cost to you as possible. So 290 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 2: I think there was potential there for that. But nonetheless, 291 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 2: we are where we are now, and I think Trump's 292 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 2: leverage has significantly increased, but less we forget, ideology is 293 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 2: still powerful. There is a world in which the regime 294 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 2: does not want to take the Nathan Donald Trump, even 295 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 2: though technically they already have because for seven years they 296 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 2: said no negotiations with Trump, and then spring twenty twenty five, Okay, 297 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 2: we'll negotiate with Trump so long as it's indirect. 298 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: And now, of course they're saying, you know, we'll be 299 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: glad to igo share with Trump if it was just 300 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: get as well as to stay up. Suddenly he's becoming 301 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: more desirable by comparison. One of the things I was 302 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: struck with, and I know you must have seen the 303 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 1: same thing, was the video of the Israelis hitting the 304 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: Iranian state broadcasting system. You may know since you speak 305 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: Farsi what she was saying at that moment, but had 306 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: a little bit of a throwback to Bagdad Bob, you know, 307 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: we can hang tough. This is not that bad. And 308 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: suddenly the studio gets bombed. Did you think that had 309 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: any significance? And do you think that it sent any 310 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,479 Speaker 1: signal to the Iranian people about what was going on? 311 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 2: It absolutely had immense significance, both technical and political, because 312 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 2: this is a TV station that is the state broadcasting 313 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 2: arm of the government of the Islamic Republic that brings 314 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 2: the regimes, views, values, and interest onto the TV screens 315 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 2: and multimedia of Iranian citizen v This is a TV 316 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,719 Speaker 2: station I think was sanctioned under the Obama administration, if 317 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, So way back in the day. It 318 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 2: coordinates with the Ministry of Intelligence and Islamic Revolutionary Guard corp. 319 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 2: It airs tortured and false confessions of everybody, from Iranian 320 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 2: reformists to regular citizens to even dual nationals. It's parated. 321 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 2: It really is spewing the invected and is synonymous with 322 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 2: that kind of corrupt revolutionary resistance ideology. And you are right, 323 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 2: if memory serves me correct. She was going on the presenter, 324 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: I think, was going on a ti rate about resistance 325 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 2: in America and then had to obviously flee the scene 326 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 2: because of the strike. But there's also an equally chilling, 327 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 2: powerful video from a little bit later on of that 328 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 2: strike that was also making its way around on Persian 329 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 2: social media. And it was from a distance seeing that building. 330 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 2: It's the Irib Islamic Republic of Iran broadcasting. It was 331 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: that building in Tehran viewed from a distance, potentially from 332 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: a camera or drone, who knows, with the call to 333 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 2: prayer in the background, and the entire edifice of this 334 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 2: one building, nothing else but just this one building burning 335 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 2: and with black smoke rising. And that is the kind 336 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 2: of stuff that in the medium term, not right now, 337 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 2: because bombs are still falling, and Iranian citizens, regardless of 338 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 2: their political orientation, are all in survival mode, particularly the 339 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 2: nearly ten million that live in the capital Tehran. But nonetheless, 340 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 2: this is the stuff that can stiffen the spine of 341 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 2: anti regime Iranians. And you know, if I had one 342 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 2: second to advertise to the Israelis, you know I'm not 343 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 2: here in the strike world. I still think there was 344 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 2: room for a lot more maximum pressure. But the Israelis 345 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 2: need to be translating these targets, emotionally, translating these targets 346 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 2: for the Iranian audience. Why is it important that the 347 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 2: Israelis have struck Irib? Why is it important that these 348 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 2: rallies have struck the commander of the Aerospace Force. It's 349 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 2: not just because this guy had his finger on the 350 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 2: trigger of the missiles going to Israel. It's because that 351 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 2: guy in January twenty twenty fired on a civilian airlinerer 352 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 2: killing over one hundred and seventy innocent people. Israel is 353 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 2: also dismantling the apparatus of repression, and that's why this 354 00:19:55,440 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 2: strike on Irib the television is very politically and technically 355 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 2: significant in my view. 356 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: To take a point view reference. In twenty twenty two, 357 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: the US to part of the treasure this is under 358 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:11,719 Speaker 1: Biden released the press really saying they're designating the IRIB 359 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: in its subsidiaries not as objective media outlets, but rather 360 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: as a critical tool in the Iranian government's mass suppression 361 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 1: and censorship campaign against its own people. They went on 362 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 1: to say IRIB has produced and recently broadcast televised interviews 363 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: of individuals being forced to confess that their relatives were 364 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: not killed by Iranian authorities during nationwide protests, but died 365 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 1: due to accidental, unrelated causes. And I assume that related 366 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 1: back to about two years ago when they killed five 367 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: hundred people for being part of an effect demonstrations exactly. 368 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 2: It was the post twenty twenty two to twenty three 369 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 2: women life freedom movement that was triggered by the killing 370 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 2: of an innocent girl in Tehron who was twenty two 371 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 2: years old, was Massa Gina Amini for not properly wearing 372 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 2: her her job. She was beaten by security forces and 373 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 2: then sustained major mortal wounds that led to her death 374 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 2: just a few days later in a hospital in Tehran. 375 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: Actually separated from her family and protests began that fall 376 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two and mushroomed into the biggest ever anti 377 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 2: regime protests we saw since the nineteen seventy nine revolution. 378 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 1: This is a regime where a young lady who didn't 379 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 1: totally cover her hair, if I'm mon correctly, she had it, 380 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: but it wasn't totally covered somehow infuriated the guards and 381 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: they beat her to death, and then that led to 382 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: a huge public outrage, which they then suppressed, I think 383 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: with about five thousand arrests and five hundred killings. 384 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 2: And they followed that. There was a less advertised story, 385 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 2: but we actually had FTD. We created a tracker of 386 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 2: it because living and working in Washington, there's plenty of 387 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 2: NGOs talk about women's rights and human's rights. We noticed 388 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 2: there was a whole string of attacks on young schoolgirls, 389 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 2: almost something out of the playbook of the Taliban, but 390 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 2: by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. And 391 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 2: they were basically chemical attacks, causing tons of basically young 392 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 2: teenage and preteen girls who are going to school to 393 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 2: get sick. And this, in our view, was a direct campaign, 394 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 2: a state campaign against the next generation of Iran's best 395 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 2: and brightest female youth, and this I think was some 396 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 2: crazy deterrent basically WMD use by the state against society 397 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 2: to instill fear. So yes, they married that campaign of 398 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 2: killing and arrest and detention with this CW campaign as well, 399 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 2: which is really horrifying. 400 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: This is one of those rare regimes. They're not quite 401 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: as bad as the Syrians we used to be, but 402 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: they're very close. This is one of the worst regimes 403 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: in the world in terms of how it oppresses its 404 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 1: own people well at the same time threatening off of 405 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,959 Speaker 1: its neighbors. Now I've noticed this with Hamas and Hezbollah 406 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: and now with the Iranians, that the Israelis really focused 407 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: on taking out the leadership and seem to have an 408 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: amazing level of intelligence about where they're going to be. 409 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: They wiped out, I think virtually all the Hesbalal leadership 410 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 1: in one meeting. They wiped out virtually all of the 411 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: Iranian Air Force leadership and one meeting. I mean, how 412 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 1: do they do all that? 413 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 2: They did all that, I think through a combination of 414 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 2: I'm no espionage scholar, but through a combination based on 415 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 2: what's been reported, through a combination of human intel and 416 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 2: assumedly signals, intel, so tech and human sources, probably being 417 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 2: able to follow some folks around, being able to tap 418 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 2: into the electronic systems. And again, these are the folks 419 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 2: that are at the commanding heights of the Islamic republics, 420 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 2: political and military establishments. As we mentioned earlier, these are 421 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 2: folks who are not necessarily promoted for their capability. They're 422 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 2: promoted and rewarded for their loyalty. There's a couple exceptions 423 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 2: here too, very lethal, very nasty individuals, but also very 424 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 2: very capable and competent, and I always do fear a 425 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 2: very competent adversary. I think the Commander of the Aerospace 426 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 2: Force Hodgizada and the Armed Forces General Staff Bobbery. These 427 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: were people known to Iran watchers to be a little 428 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: bit unlike their colleagues, were actually technically and politically savvy, 429 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 2: not that much evidence of financial or political corruption, but 430 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 2: real true believers and a capable, ideological but lethal adversary. Nonetheless, 431 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 2: they still were obviously able to be surveilled, and the 432 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,439 Speaker 2: Israelies went after them to induce this surprise effect, to 433 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 2: induce this shock that when you saw the reporting about 434 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 2: all of these IRGC folks in one place or all 435 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 2: of these nuclear scientists too, which is a separate story 436 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 2: targeted in Tehron at the same time. I think it 437 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 2: was four thirty in the morning, if I'm not mistaken. 438 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 2: It was very reminiscent of what we all watched on 439 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 2: the news back in September twenty twenty four with the 440 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 2: Pajer gate and the Deeper gate in Lebanon, and that 441 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,920 Speaker 2: just goes to show you how effective the intelligence arem 442 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 2: of Israelis and how critical intelligence is to even a 443 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 2: conventional war fighting campaign. 444 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 1: So the Israelis hit them and I think pretty powerful 445 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: initial round, but the Iranians do fire back. The Israelis. 446 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: I'm actually a little surprised because they've been faring its 447 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 1: civilians when I would have thought they'd have been much 448 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: better off to try to hit the airfields. I mean, 449 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: if they could slow down the tempo of the Israeli 450 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 1: Air Force, and the best way to do that is 451 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: to kill the planes on the ground. But they're going 452 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: for Tel Aviv for Haifa. What do you think is 453 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: their rationale for basically doing area bombardment that has almost 454 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: no strategic effect but just causes pain. 455 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 2: Well, I think that is the intention to cause pain. 456 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,679 Speaker 2: But also on day one, I think on Friday, the 457 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 2: regime's first ballistic missile wave that followed the first rone 458 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 2: wave essentially did try to go after some air bases. 459 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 2: But even in the Persian press, which hyperbolizes a lot 460 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 2: of stuff, they ended up saying that the following waves 461 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:10,159 Speaker 2: were essentially all targeting population centers, and they mentioned Haipha, 462 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 2: they mentioned Tel Aviv, and they mentioned a couple of 463 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 2: other suburbs, particularly round ut Gun for example, But they 464 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 2: mentioned that this was basically targeting cities. Occasionally, IRGC leadership 465 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 2: and what is left of the military leadership or who 466 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 2: became the new military leadership would say, oh, please leave 467 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 2: these cities. But ultimately the regime was trying to break 468 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 2: the will of these Raelis to fight, and also to 469 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 2: break the will of these rallies to actually stay in Israel. 470 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 2: I mean, these are folks who don't believe in Zionism. 471 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 2: They don't actually believe that Israelis are Israeli. They believe 472 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 2: you need to scratch them. They're probably European or South 473 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,480 Speaker 2: American or Arab or something else. So they're also trying 474 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 2: to induce strategically in the long term, the same kind 475 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 2: of shock waves that they hoped that their proxy would 476 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 2: have set off back on October seven, which is to 477 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 2: land a blow on Israeli society and foster reverse immigration 478 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 2: away from it. I mean that is a bit longer term, 479 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 2: but they were trying to draw blood and specializing in 480 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 2: Iran's long range strike capabilities. I got to tell you, 481 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 2: the regime does believe like you talked about mass, the 482 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 2: regime does believe that quantity has a quality of its own. 483 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 2: But these are qualitatively more impactful systems than we've seen 484 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,959 Speaker 2: in the past. Yes, less have made it through, but 485 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 2: that is just because of how well layered Israel's air 486 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 2: and missile defenses. But there are apartments, city blocks, tons 487 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 2: of civilian centers. This is a massive counter value campaign 488 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 2: that the Islamic Republic of Iran has engaged, and it 489 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 2: really should be further exposed and shed light on one day. 490 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 2: But the regime was trying to get even and draw 491 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: blood and also to try to erode the will of 492 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 2: these Raelies to continue their military campaign. Because the Israeli 493 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 2: military campaign is focused on basically defanging Iran's long range threat, 494 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 2: going after the missiles, the drones, but also the launchers 495 00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 2: and the support infrastructure. 496 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,159 Speaker 1: When you look at all the the as well as 497 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,439 Speaker 1: are gaining, but they have not delivered a knockout punch. 498 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: The Iranians are less and less capable, but they're still 499 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 1: hanging in. How vital do you think it is for 500 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: the US to use its very very large bombs against 501 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 1: the Fodo Nuclear Site facility? Or do you think it's 502 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,880 Speaker 1: possible that by just continuing to erode the regime, at 503 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:29,159 Speaker 1: some point the aswel As could force the Iranians to 504 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: actually dismantle it themselves. 505 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 2: I don't think alone the Israelies will force them to 506 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,879 Speaker 2: dismantle it themselves, but I do think alone these rallies 507 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 2: will be dismantling large chunks of it themselves. It depends 508 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,280 Speaker 2: on what the priorities are for these relies in their 509 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 2: targeting campaign. To keep going after bases, to go after 510 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 2: future supply lines, to go after the existing arsenal, to 511 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: go after elements of the shorter range arsenal. There's a 512 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: whole host of military variables for these rallies. And just 513 00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: because these Raelies don't have the B two bomber or 514 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 2: the thirty thousand pound massive ordinance penetrator, bunkerbuster bombs doesn't 515 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 2: in my view, mean that they can't do other damage. 516 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 2: Perhaps they could bring in special forces, some kind of 517 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 2: above ground below ground team, or they could train to 518 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 2: hit the same spot. Given that they've taken out the 519 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 2: air defenses and they have more freedom of maneuver and 520 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 2: operation in Iran, they could train to drop their own 521 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 2: more limited bunker busters, like the two thousand pound bombs 522 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 2: in the same spot and try to have them burrow 523 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 2: deeper and deeper. You can also disable some of these 524 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 2: facilities by going after their support infrastructure, airways, shafts, vans 525 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 2: and even electricity. You can cripple it that way as well. 526 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 2: But there's no doubt if you're talking about a knockout 527 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 2: punch that is much more likely going to have to 528 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 2: come in my view from Uncle Sam, if you're going 529 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,200 Speaker 2: to quite literally try to collapse the architecture of this 530 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 2: four door facility, which is about three hundred feet underground. 531 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: A couple of years ago there was an amazing Israeli 532 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: Special Forces rate in Syria where they took out a 533 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,719 Speaker 1: Raneum nuclear facility that they were building in Syria. I mean, 534 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 1: they went in very precisely, did the job and got 535 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: back out with no casualties. Do you think that fordoh 536 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 1: is too far inside Iran and just physically too big 537 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 1: to have that kind of a commando approach. 538 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 2: With the surprises these relies have had up their sleeves 539 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 2: in the past few years, you can really never say never. 540 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 2: But if these rallies have this aerial overmatch or superiority 541 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 2: we should say, against the Iranians, and they can translate 542 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 2: that into a few more pockets in the land, there's 543 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 2: a heck of a lot more they can do that 544 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 2: could allow them to basically bring in through an uncontested 545 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 2: air corps door across them add least special forces to 546 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 2: do this. Oh And by the way, a dividend of 547 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 2: this is if these rallies are trying to much more 548 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 2: narrowly tailor their campaign, there would be no civilian casualties 549 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 2: in this sort of scenario, would be more of a 550 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 2: one and done situation. So if you create the military space, 551 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 2: this could become a political option. Conversely, you mentioned how 552 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 2: else America might get involved. I still do there's a 553 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 2: chance that America might try to leverage Israel's increasing military 554 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 2: successes into trying to get Combina to accept this dismantle 555 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 2: or die paradigm. And the reason I'm mentioning that while 556 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 2: you're asking me about four Dough is because right now 557 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 2: we don't know what's going on at four Dough. I mean, 558 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 2: I've been in a lot of wargames. They've usually had 559 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 2: me to roleplay the Iranian side. Whenever my side is hit, 560 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,960 Speaker 2: I try to squirrel away as much uranium as possible. 561 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 2: So we don't know enough about diversion god forbid, potentially 562 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 2: happening there. And we don't know if the machines that 563 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 2: were already spinning and thus far are still stable and 564 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,719 Speaker 2: assumed to be spinning in four Dough, which has been 565 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 2: hit by these Raelies but not penetrated. We don't know 566 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 2: if the machines that used to be producing sixty percent, 567 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 2: which is a hop, skip and a jump to weapons grade, 568 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 2: just made that final hop, skip and a jump and 569 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 2: went to ninety percent. And that's a huge intelligence question. 570 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 2: And no matter the military successes these Raelis have against 571 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 2: the rest of Iran's missile and military infrastructure, if they 572 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 2: get the counter proliferation element of this larger campaign wrong, 573 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 2: there will be more issues, shall we say politely, to 574 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 2: have to deal with do. 575 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: You have any sense of whether the regular military has 576 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: been particularly degraded. And what I'm thinking of is, if 577 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: you have absolute air superiority, you can bring in with 578 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 1: see you one thirties a pretty large number of troops 579 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 1: who could in fact occupy and take over fourdo and 580 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: methodically destroy it. And the question will be how rapidly 581 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: and how coherently the Iranian military would be capable of responding, 582 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: even in their own country, given the fact that they're 583 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 1: now operating under complete Israeli air supriority. 584 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 2: Well, given that we'd be talking about the conventional military, 585 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 2: which is larger than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps but 586 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 2: really under serviced and underfunded, there's certainly the chance that 587 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 2: they would have to engage them, because they would probably 588 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 2: have to defend either the airfield or the base or 589 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 2: whatever facility these reelis which try to come at or 590 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 2: drive at, or fly or land at, So there probably would, 591 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 2: in my view, be a firefight. How significant it would 592 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 2: be is really more of a crystal ball question at 593 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 2: this point in time. But I think if the military 594 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 2: successes these really have elsewhere are high and the messaging 595 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 2: is good, this could be really more of a lay 596 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 2: down your arms. We have no qualms with the people 597 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 2: who are trying to protect their country. But if you fight, 598 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 2: you're not trying to protect your country, You're trying to 599 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 2: protect the Iatola's nuclear enterprise. And there is public diplomacy, 600 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 2: public messaging space both for Israel and America to exploit there. 601 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 2: Because one way we can prevent this from being a 602 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 2: civil war is if you do get some of the 603 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 2: security services to flip right. 604 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: Min you could end up in Assyrian civil war kind 605 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 1: of problem where you have two or three or more 606 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 1: factions fighting for control. Let me ask one last thing 607 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 1: about all this are ware to point where we really 608 00:33:55,240 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 1: have an opportunity to profoundly reshape the region by eliminating 609 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:05,080 Speaker 1: the primary sponsor of terrorism or is that an overreach? 610 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: With where we. 611 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,440 Speaker 2: Are, I think we're getting closer towards the first opportunity 612 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 2: to get rid of that state sponsor of terrorism. But 613 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 2: that requires again, so many politicians to have the courage 614 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,759 Speaker 2: of their convictions. There's so many easy punts. Unfortunately, I 615 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 2: see across the Atlantic in the West trying to say no, 616 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 2: regime change is only local. We can't have anything foreign imposed. 617 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,799 Speaker 2: No one is asking for anything foreign imposed, and I'm 618 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 2: not here to beg for charity or whatever on Americans. 619 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,319 Speaker 2: It is in first and foremost and only, by the way, 620 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 2: but foreign policy is not missionary work. That's the Henry 621 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 2: Kissinger couoth that I really loved. By the way, but 622 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 2: if you have the opportunity to deal your adversary a 623 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 2: blow and then also do good by your own ideology, 624 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,720 Speaker 2: and then to bring into power someone who also shares 625 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,479 Speaker 2: your ideology, and then you have the luxury of living 626 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 2: up to your style of government, which is all about 627 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 2: representative government, and you realize there's a people over there 628 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,640 Speaker 2: who for one hundred years have been trying to have 629 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 2: representative government. This isn't imposed, this is foreign supported, and 630 00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:08,439 Speaker 2: that is why Iran is not Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan. That's 631 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 2: my view of it. But I understand absolutely there's a 632 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 2: million and one things that can go wrong. There's a 633 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,720 Speaker 2: million one issues opposition wise, there's a million one issues 634 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,240 Speaker 2: in terms of resource scarcity and political capital and attention. 635 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 2: I understand all of those things, but I also understand 636 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,759 Speaker 2: that we do have to finally find a way to 637 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,839 Speaker 2: flip the script on the iatolas, because it would be 638 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:33,839 Speaker 2: in my view strategic, political, and moral malpractice to decapitate 639 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,960 Speaker 2: the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism and leave an 640 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 2: eighty six eighty eight million person nation smoldering as a 641 00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,319 Speaker 2: failed state, and that would risk losing one of the 642 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 2: things that Iran is that really nowhere else in the 643 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 2: region is which is both pro American and pro Israeli, 644 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,719 Speaker 2: and that's an asset that the US and particularly is 645 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 2: Real cannot afford to lose. 646 00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:58,720 Speaker 1: My guess is, if we had a stable government willing 647 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:02,320 Speaker 1: to work with the rest of the world, that the number, 648 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 1: for example, of stunningly successful Iranian Americans who would have 649 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:11,000 Speaker 1: an interest in helping rebuild the country they came from 650 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:15,400 Speaker 1: would represent a source of both entrepreneurial knowledge and sheer 651 00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:19,240 Speaker 1: capital That would be breathtaking because the diast was pretty 652 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 1: big and pretty prosperous, and if they had a place 653 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:25,160 Speaker 1: where they were safe and they were welcomed, we could 654 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:30,439 Speaker 1: have a pretty prosperous Iran within ten years. Amen, listen, ben, 655 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me. We are 656 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 1: going through wild times. Do we have to call on 657 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,720 Speaker 1: you again in the not too distant future just because 658 00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,319 Speaker 1: of all the changes our listeners can learn more about 659 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: your work that Foundation for Defensive Democracies by visiting your 660 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,360 Speaker 1: website at FDD dot org. And I really want to 661 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,400 Speaker 1: thank you for taking the time in the middle of 662 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 1: all of these activities. 663 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, sir. It's a pleasure and looking 664 00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 2: forward to continuing the conversation with you. 665 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,879 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests, Benham, Ben Talablue. You can 666 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:05,399 Speaker 1: learn more about the Foundation for Defensive Democracies on our 667 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 1: show page at newtsworld dot com. Newsworld is produced by 668 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 1: Genglish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan. 669 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,120 Speaker 1: Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show 670 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,839 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team 671 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 1: at Ginglishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Nutsworld, I hope 672 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,719 Speaker 1: you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us with 673 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,880 Speaker 1: five stars and give us a review so others can 674 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,360 Speaker 1: learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld 675 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,400 Speaker 1: can sign up for my three freeweekly columns at Gengishtree 676 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:41,239 Speaker 1: sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Nut Gingrich. This is 677 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:42,120 Speaker 1: Newtsworld