1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: The world as we know it is ending, But what 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: comes next? Well, if you've been following my work for 3 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: a while, you know I talk a lot about this 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,239 Speaker 1: pendulum that's swinging back and forth, three revolutionary cycles that 5 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: are converging right now that show us why the world 6 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: is so crazy. The world as we know it is ending. 7 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: The world that we're going into is not the one 8 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: we're leaving behind. But what comes next? And that's the 9 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 1: topic for today's conversation with Peter Zion. He just recently 10 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: wrote wrote the book called The End of the World 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: is just the Beginning, And we're going to discuss my thesis, 12 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: his thesis in the book, and how they work together. 13 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: And we're gonna talk about how this d globalization works, depopulation, deglobalization, 14 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: and what the world looks like after that, the end 15 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: of the giant nation state. Will China even be around 16 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 1: by the end of the decade, or will they take 17 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 1: over the world. He has some strong opinions about that. 18 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about Russia, Ukraine. We're talking about the 19 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: oil and gas situation in Russia. Um. He thinks it's 20 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: a dire situation that's going to disrupt the entire world. 21 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: We're in talk about the United States, um energy sector 22 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: that we have. We're gonna talk about the politics and 23 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: what's going to happen with the uh political system in 24 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: the United States, influence of China and other nations, things 25 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: like that. We're gonna talk about technology and so much more. 26 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: This is a conversation I was super excited for. I 27 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: was looking forward to, and we finally had it. I 28 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: can't wait to get into it. So here we go. Peter. Anyway, 29 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: thank you for joining me today. I'm super excited to 30 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: have you. Not a problem, glad to be here. I 31 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: I love the work that you've done. I love your 32 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 1: thesis that you have about the world's kind of breaking 33 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: a part of decentralizing the name of your new book, 34 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: The End of the World is just the beginning. And 35 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: I've been working on this thesis of three revolutionary cycles 36 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: combining and coming together, converging and moving the world from 37 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: centralization to decentralization, and yours fits along with that, but 38 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: with inches and inches of data to back it up, 39 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: and with a little bit of some different angles. So um, 40 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: you know, I've been binge watched a bunch of your 41 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: interviews and and read and read into the book, and 42 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: so I guess just give us a high level view. 43 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: I don't want to spend a lot time. Maybe a 44 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 1: high level view of the end of the world is 45 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: just the beginning. Sure, well, the issue is that the 46 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: world that we understand that was formed at the end 47 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: of World War two, that's what's ending here. It's not 48 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: like we're all gonna die. Not all of us are 49 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: going to make it to the other side of this. Uh. 50 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: Globalization at its core was a bribe. We provided global 51 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: security for our allies if in exchange they allowed us 52 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: to write their security policies when it came to the 53 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: Cold War, and that exchange lasted until the Cold War end, 54 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: and ever since then, the Americans have been losing interest 55 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: in electing ever more populous presidents, right up to and 56 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: including the current one. So our interest in maintaining that 57 00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: network has failed. And since it was a we never 58 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: invested our economy and the global network. If we had, 59 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 1: it wouldn't have been a bribe. So we are capable 60 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: of stepping back from that system in our economy more 61 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: or less being okay. But everyone else is getting wapped 62 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: up the side of the head. That's kind of half 63 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: of it. The other half of it is when globalization happened, 64 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: the world urbanized, and when you move from the farm 65 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: into the cities, you have fewer kids. You play that 66 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 1: forward for seventy years, and it's not that we're running 67 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: out of children. That happened forty years ago. We're now 68 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: running out of adults. And so the very theoretical underpinnions 69 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: of any sort of trade based economic system ultimately requires consumption, 70 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: and we no longer have the people to do that. Yeah. So, UM, 71 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: I've been following Harry Dent's work for a long time. 72 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: He wrote a book called The Demographic Cliff, talking about 73 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: the demographics and the problems there. So I've been kind 74 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: of a kind of in tune to that a little bit. 75 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: But starting with this first point that you made about 76 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: the bribe of security, and so you make the case 77 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: that the US has basically entered into agreement with the 78 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: world where will provide all the security for the world, um, 79 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: which has allowed this free trade to happen, in this 80 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: globalization to happen. Um. Would you say though, that it 81 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: maybe started much longer than that, maybe with the start 82 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: of the industrial revolution, which then brought people into the 83 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: cities and factories and then kind of started up all 84 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: of this global trade. Well, it wouldn't have happened without 85 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: the Industrial Revolution. I don't mean to suggest otherwise. I'm 86 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: just saying that it took globalization to take industrialization global. 87 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: The Industrial Revolution originally was in the United Kingdom, but 88 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: really just in the greater London area, and then it 89 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: spread to Germany and the United States and a handful 90 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 1: of European countries, but never into the countryside. Most of 91 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: the world didn't really get down to the serious work 92 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: of industrializing the secondary cities until the war, and in 93 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: the case of the countryside, most of the advanced world 94 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: didn't finish the process until the nineteen sixties. So it 95 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 1: took global security to enable true global zation to occur. 96 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: Is that because the seeds were just unsafe, too many 97 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: pirates and etcetera, you know, ships going down, and so 98 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 1: that we couldn't really get the free trade that we 99 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: wanted because we've been doing we've been number one. Yeah, 100 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: Number one is technology. If you're dealing with wooden sailing vessels, 101 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: they see is a very dangerous place. And so it 102 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 1: wasn't until later in kind of the second phase of 103 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 1: globalization that we had merchant shipping in metal, and that 104 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: is just in the last century. I'm sorry, it was 105 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: just in the twentieth century. That's relatively new. Also, originally 106 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: a lot of the industrial technologies were all about military conflict, 107 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 1: so they would cause more disruption than we would save. 108 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: And in those first handful of countries, most notably the 109 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 1: Brits that were enabled to industrialize, they could basically use 110 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: industrialization like a crowbar to beat potential colonies or foes 111 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 1: into submission. And it wasn't deliberately shared with the rest 112 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: of the world. It took some time for those technologies 113 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 1: to leak out, and then of course we had the 114 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: World Wars, and that has when America rewired the rules 115 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 1: by providing the security to open up the free trade. Right. 116 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: What about the financial side of things, So it seems 117 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: like in the United States and through maybe since nine 118 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: one really accelerated with the world getting off the gold 119 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: standard and moving into more of a fiat money standard 120 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: or system um. That seemed to kind of force the 121 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 1: United States to offshore a lot of its globalization or 122 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: a lot of its manufacturing base maybe to offset that inflation, 123 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: which also sped up the globalization. I wouldn't say that 124 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 1: it was because of globalization that we went to FIA. Well, 125 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: let me rephrase that. I'm saying FIAT. FIAT sped up 126 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 1: the globalization or the globalization because it was forced to 127 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: offshore its manufacturing. Uh. United States was never forced to 128 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: off shore anything. That was honestly a side effect of 129 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: the choice of globalization. Before or globalization, the only countries 130 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 1: that would be technologically advanced were the ones that had 131 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: a geography that allowed them to generate most of what 132 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: they needed internally, and then they would use that strength 133 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: to venture out to get the things that they didn't have. 134 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: Those were the empires. What globalization did was allowed everyone 135 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: to play without having to have that military component. So 136 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: you could have been a secondary colony, but all of 137 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: a sudden, you can engage in global trade. And when 138 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: everyone could play, value added expanded. People both diversified and 139 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: specialized and got into more and more value added manufacturing. 140 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: So the need for a financial system to lubricate all 141 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: of that internally to the country and internationally in terms 142 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: of trade exploded. And in that sort of an environment, 143 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: gold couldn't fly. Every successful asset backed currency we have 144 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: known in human history has ultimately collapsed because they ran 145 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: out of the material that backed it. And if we 146 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: were suddenly dealing with growth rates that were just explosive. 147 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: The global system grew more between ninety and nineteen seventy 148 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: than throughout the entirety of human history, there was never 149 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: going to be enough gold to back all of that. 150 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: Fiat whether for better or for worse based on your 151 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: own personal politics was the only answer, the only approach 152 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: that might have worked. So far, so good. Yeah, I 153 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: would agree gold doesn't work because specifically because it doesn't 154 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: move over space very well, right, trying to get it 155 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: across continents doesn't work, and then trying to yeah that too. 156 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: Um well, I'll come back to that, but I want 157 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: to talk about some of the points that you've made. 158 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 1: I'd like to dig into China for a minute. Um. 159 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: A lot of people are afraid that China has taken 160 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: over the world and uh, they're gonna own and control everything, 161 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: And you've made the case that China won't even be 162 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: around by the end of the decade. The demographics is 163 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: a big piece of it. They're not self sufficient with food, energy, water, etcetera. Um, talk, 164 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: let's talk about that. So you you say that they 165 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: won't be around at the end of the decade. Fill 166 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: us in on that. Well, let's let's start with demographics. 167 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 1: The same process of having fewer kids happened as the 168 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: Chinese industrialized, just as what happened with everybody else, but 169 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 1: where with the United States. It took place relatively slowly, 170 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: over roughly two d years. They've done it in forty 171 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:24,319 Speaker 1: so they've gone from living on subsistence rice farms to 172 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: living in condos in a single generation. And as a result, 173 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 1: their birth rate has gone from something like six to 174 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: seven per woman to now less than one in most 175 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: of the major cities. Shanghai and Beijing actually have the 176 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 1: lowest birth rates of any cities in any era, and 177 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: they're going down, not up. Uh. You add in the 178 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: one child policy on top of that, and we're dealing 179 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: with the population which is already in the stages of 180 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 1: advanced collapse. The Chinese population undoubtedly peaked more than ten 181 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: years ago, and they are now on track to have 182 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: less than half their current population as soon as twenty 183 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 1: fift And that assumes that nothing goes wrong with those 184 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: all important energy and food imports. So yes, this is this, 185 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: This is a system. This is a culture that is 186 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: facing abject collapse in the not too distant future. Then, 187 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: of course, there's the broader geopolitical environment. Globalization was basically 188 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: made for countries like China, countries that had never really 189 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: been fully functional or economic entities in their own right. 190 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: They were always preyed upon by outsiders or broken apart 191 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: due to internal conflict. Globalization, for all intents and purposes, 192 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: ended all that, and this has been the most unified 193 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: that the Chinese system has ever been in the year 194 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: long history of the Han Chinese people. All the Americans 195 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: have to do if they want to record is go home, 196 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: and we're in the process of doing that right now. 197 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: China imports three quarters of their energy, and three quarters 198 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: of that comes from the Persian Gulf or further abroad, 199 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: and they utterly lack the naval capacity in order to 200 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 1: protect their own supply lines. And and even if they 201 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: could protect their own supply lines, the world has turned populist. 202 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: Nobody won to be dependent upon Chinese goods anymore. So 203 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: everything that has spelled Chinese success since nineteen eighty has 204 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,719 Speaker 1: now come violently unwound, in part because of Chinese actions, 205 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: And there's no way they walk away from this. So 206 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 1: it seems like, I mean, it's it's it's uh, it's data, right, 207 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: So the demographics is data. So I agree with you, right, 208 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: I mean, no matter what they do, they can't get 209 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: that population back for thirty or forty years um. And 210 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: then to your point, they don't have the energy, etcetera. 211 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: But it seems like they've been on this like uh, 212 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 1: you know colonization if you will, right where they've made 213 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: long term deals for energy, thirty year deals for natural 214 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 1: gas or for oil or for food. You know, they've 215 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: moved heavily into Mexico, Central America, et cetera. Can they 216 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: offset that by even even their population, maybe by you know, 217 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: immigration or using people in other countries. And then with 218 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: these long term deals they've had for supplies, Well, let 219 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: me kill a couple of those squirrels and then we'll 220 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 1: get into the bigger issues. Uh. When you spend twelve 221 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,959 Speaker 1: billion dollars for a two billion dollar asset, that is 222 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 1: an investment, that is capital flight. That is some Chinese 223 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: bureaucrat who's figured out a way out to cheat his 224 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: own system and get money out for another day when 225 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: it's finally his time to leave. We saw a lot 226 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: of this in the late Soviet period as well. So 227 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: anything that it touches One Belt, one Road, anything that 228 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,839 Speaker 1: looks like an asset that the Chinese are purchasing but 229 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: they don't know how to operate, that is all capital flight. 230 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: That's Chinese building against their own system and basically taking 231 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: money from the government and squirreling it away for themselves 232 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: for a rainy day. For these examples like where they've 233 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: built deepwater ports, so they build airports with things like 234 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: that you're referring to. Yeah, I mean some of them 235 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: might fall into slightly different category, but probably eight of 236 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 1: it is capital flight, especially if they're purchasing a pre 237 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: existing asset, but don't they still have control over that 238 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: asset then for the oil. Really, one of the things 239 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: we've seen with One Belt, One Road is every single 240 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 1: country but one uh UH is refusing to pay back 241 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: the loans. They're even denying that they were ever loans 242 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 1: in the first place. They're like, you know, these are grants, 243 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: We're gonna keep this money, thanks much. The one country, 244 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: the one exception is Sri Lanka, which is in a 245 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: state of abjects civil collapse right now. So I would 246 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: not expect payments on that debt to continue for all 247 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 1: that much longer. Okay, so the long term deals they've 248 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 1: made for energy, for example, then you think those would 249 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: just fall apart. They weren't really, and that's that's another squirrel. 250 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: I mean, this is not how energy deals are made. 251 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: If you sign a contract, sure, but it's not you 252 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: like you pay for it all up front. You pay 253 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: for it as you get it. It's just it's a 254 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: slightly different way of handling the accounting. It really doesn't 255 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: signal nearly as much of a commitment as people like 256 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: to think. UH. The only countries that do it in 257 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: large scale are Russia and China, and it's difficult to 258 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: come up with two methods of accounting that the rest 259 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 1: of the world broadly has no interest in following. So 260 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 1: then you think that although China may have made long 261 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,079 Speaker 1: term deals with Iraq or Afghanistan or Russia or of 262 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: a country on these UH commodities over a long periods 263 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: of time, they're just contracts that would probably be eventually broken. Well, 264 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 1: I would say all the ones that they've done to 265 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: this point have been broken, whether it's because they were 266 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: being upgraded or downgraded. It's kind of irrelevant. It's just 267 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: it's a flashy headline. It is negotiated at the top 268 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: and then it's handed down to the bureaucrats, and so 269 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: that it's a thirty year deal. But it's very rare 270 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: for them last more than four or five. We wouldn't 271 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: those nations still need to sell those that those assets. 272 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: You can sell it on the spot market to the 273 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: Chinese just fine. Or when three or four years go 274 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: by and you realize you either need more you need less, 275 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: you sign a new thirty year deal, and it's once 276 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: again all the news, and by the time we get 277 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: to the next cycle, everyone's forgotten the first two. So 278 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: this is this is pretty common. So China again need 279 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: to import their their energy um and have the deals 280 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: to do it today. You think that at some point 281 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: they just can't get the energy they're going to need. Well, 282 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: the Chinese lack of the military capacity to protect their 283 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: own import that's the United States doing that. And to 284 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: think that the United States is going to bleed and 285 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: die and enable conflicts so that China can get oil, 286 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: that strikes me as a bad bad Okay, yeah, it 287 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: makes sense. What about and then on the population side, 288 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: if they lowered their population. Obviously it makes sense. If 289 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: you lower a population, you have less progress. I'm guessing 290 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: less innovation, which they don't have a lot of any way, 291 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: because maybe a communism. But couldn't they leverage some of 292 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: these people in these emerging markets for their people to 293 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: produce the goods that they're importing or does it all 294 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: end motovation real quick? To a degree, the Chinese get 295 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: a bad rap when it comes to innovation. Now, they 296 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: have a very small cadre of very smart people who 297 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: are actually pretty good at innovating, particularly when it comes 298 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: to software and with big data stuff. When you get 299 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: down into manufacturing, that's where it starts to fall apart. 300 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: They can't they can't make the machines that allow them 301 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: to make the cheap goods. So they have a small 302 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 1: cadre that's very good, but it's not large enough to 303 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: train the people that are a step down so we 304 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: can We will continue to hear about the Chinese making 305 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: breakthroughs in big data related tech, but it's everything else, 306 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: the nuts and bolts, that's where they do not excel 307 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: at all. Um In terms of immigration, it's a big 308 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: boulder to try to find a lever for you know, 309 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: there were one point four billion Chinese wealth. With the 310 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: data revisions, there's one point three billion Chinese and now 311 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: the majority of them are aged forty and over. So 312 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: the scale of immigration that they would have to encourage 313 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: and allow is more than the total mobile population of 314 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: the world at the moment. They would have to grab 315 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: every would be migrant from everywhere, and the only country 316 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: that might might might might be able to provide enough 317 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 1: of ballast to help the Chinese up of it would 318 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: be India. The country that argue able is the most 319 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: hostile to the very concept of cooperation with the Chinese 320 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: on anything. Okay, what about this is jumping into more 321 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: of a political side of things, But it seems that 322 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: they've done a pretty good job politically of maybe getting 323 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,199 Speaker 1: a lot of influence inside the United States. Maybe the 324 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: enemy is within the gates, so to speak, um, maybe 325 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 1: some other countries as well. Do you think there's any 326 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: control and influence that maybe the United States government itself 327 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: might be subject to China? If you had told me 328 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: this or asked me this four years ago, I probably 329 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 1: would have broadly agreed. But wow, times change. Uh. The 330 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 1: Donald Trump administration, there were a lot of things about 331 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 1: them that I was not thrilled out, but the need 332 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 1: to rebalance the relationship with China was definitely something that 333 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: needed to be done, and it's been continued Underbiden. Uh. 334 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: COVID turned a lot of people in the United States 335 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: off on all things Chinese, especially when it became apparent 336 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: that the Chinese knew about the bug and had prevented 337 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: flights from originating in Wuhan landing anywhere else in China, 338 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: but they still allowed international flights. I mean, that was 339 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: that was a dick move. There's no way around that. Uh. 340 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: The Chinese going into this wolf warrior diplomacy piste off everyone, 341 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: and now pretty much every foreign academic center in the 342 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: entire Western world has been shut down. All those Confucian 343 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: institutes are gone. So I don't mean to suggest that 344 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: there's no nothing residual out there, but just the mass 345 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: cultural rejection of all things Chinese government related, and with 346 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,719 Speaker 1: the Chinese taking steps to make it much worse than 347 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 1: it needed to be. I am really not concerned about 348 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 1: that anymore. I mean, there's there's a competition going on 349 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,919 Speaker 1: in Congress who can be more anti Chinese. This is 350 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: not the sort of situation that I'm overly concerned about 351 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: foreign influence, especially since the Chinese have been so ham 352 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: fisted about it. It's just it's very easy to root 353 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 1: this out, and it's being rooted out quite aggressively. I'd 354 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: say we're well passed at this point. So do you 355 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: think I saw a headline today? Um, China demands that 356 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,439 Speaker 1: the U S cancel arm sales to Taiwan. They demanded that. 357 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 1: That's adorable. Why is that adorable? Well, just to think 358 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: that what the Chinese want is to be able to 359 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: dictate everyone to accede to their security and economic preference, 360 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 1: but with absolutely no reciprocal action. They really have started 361 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: drinking their own kool aid, so to speak. Uh. Part 362 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: of it's a government thing that comes up with every 363 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: generation or two of China. Uh. The country is very large, 364 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 1: it's very diversified in terms of worker quality and geography. 365 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: And as a result, the central government having been able 366 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: to exact its writ throughout the entire territory has always 367 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: been a problem. There's always been this struggle between regional 368 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: power centers and national Unfortunately, they've never been able to 369 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 1: found a balance either. The regional power centers overwhelmed the 370 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 1: center and in the country splits apart into warring fifetoms 371 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: that's most of their history, or the center succeeds in 372 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: rainy in the local ones, and it becomes a dictatorship 373 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,959 Speaker 1: in which all dynamism and all creativity is destroyed in 374 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: favor of a cult of personality. And that's where we 375 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: are now. So G has executed or exiled or imprisoned 376 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,360 Speaker 1: pretty much everyone in the country who's capable of independent 377 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 1: thought at this point, and we're not seeing any flexibility 378 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 1: in policy, and all of the bureaucrats have now fallen 379 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: into one of two categories. Number one, the ones who 380 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: won't do anything unless they are told in writing, and 381 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: so we have stasis, or those who hear about something 382 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: that G said on TV or saw it on a 383 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: billboard and they go into their own zealotous interpretation of 384 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: what they think the boss wants and they go a 385 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: little batshit. So, for example, you have seen them undoubtedly 386 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 1: the armies of people and has Matt Gears spreading the 387 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: lime on highways and airport runways. You know, that's obviously idiotic, 388 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: but that's what policy looks like in China now. Uh. 389 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: And so they're just hitting their head over and over 390 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 1: into the wall until something's cracks. And that's something that's 391 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: not going to be the United States. So I'm gonna 392 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 1: move on to the other part of the world. But 393 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: before we do so, I think you said China won't 394 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: be around by the end of the decade, or they 395 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: won't be the nation state that we know now. So 396 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: do you see them just over the next several years 397 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 1: just kind of starting to continue to lose influence, lose 398 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,479 Speaker 1: favor in the world, and just kind of shrinking and 399 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 1: or what do you what do you see happening? Yeah, 400 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 1: there's a lot of if, if then statements wrapped up 401 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: in that question. Uh, there's there's a robust historical database 402 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: in China of how everything can go to hell very 403 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: very quickly for reasons. Uh. And because of the demographic situation, 404 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: we know that their consumption and export model can't survive 405 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: the decade. They just don't have the people to even 406 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: attempt it. But that doesn't mean that demographics is what's 407 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: going to put the bullet in the head. It could 408 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: be an energy crisis, it could be a food crisis, 409 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: and it could be government collapse. It could be slipping 410 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 1: in the shower and fall on on some bullets. Uh, 411 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 1: they're What you have to understand, though, is that there's 412 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: no way out of this. We're China survives now an 413 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: entity this large. How it dies matters. But the biggest 414 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: impact we are likely to see in the Western hemisphere 415 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 1: is the sudden loss of manufactured goods, and that is 416 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: something well painful that we can adapt to. Uh. The 417 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 1: loss of the disruptions to energy and agricultural markets, I 418 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: don't think are things that we would feel all that heavily. 419 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: Here we have a largely self contained system good points, 420 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 1: good points. So if we jump to the other side 421 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: of the world, then if we go to well, maybe 422 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 1: the same side of the world, somewhat to the east, 423 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: but Russia and so obviously that's big news. Russia and 424 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 1: Ukraine and the whole world is trying to sanction Russia, 425 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: but apparently we still need their energy. Um. It looks 426 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: like Russia is still outputting the same amount of energy, 427 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: if not even more energy than they were pre war. UM. 428 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:04,640 Speaker 1: It seems like maybe a lot of these sanctions are 429 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:09,439 Speaker 1: just lip service if that. UM, But I've heard you 430 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: talk about that they're actually being impacted very heavily. And 431 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: maybe they might have to shut down their oil and 432 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: gas industry and it could permanently impair them. Well, let's 433 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: start long and worked a short term. So longer term Haliburton, Slumber, 434 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: j A, BP, all the super majors, all the oil 435 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: companies of the West have left. The Russians don't have 436 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: the technical skill to operate most of their own fields, 437 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 1: especially the further east and the further north Hugo. So 438 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,479 Speaker 1: we know long term that at least half of Russian 439 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: output is going to fall off. Now, whether that's in 440 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: three months or three years or ten years, I don't know. 441 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 1: Are there never had this degree of technical divorce before. 442 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 1: Are there not other technical workers that could fill their spot, 443 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: like Chinese or Saudias that know how to get oil 444 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: out of the ground. No, if the Chinese could do 445 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,679 Speaker 1: it themselves, they would be doing it already. And the 446 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: Saudias rely on the West as well. Also, Saudi fields 447 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: are not nearly as complicated what's going on in Russia. Also, 448 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: the saudiast don't work. They bring in foreigners to do 449 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: it for them, so they wouldn't know where to begin. 450 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: So without the U S. Technical expertise, there's no one 451 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 1: else to I would say just the US, it's US, UK, 452 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 1: a mix of Europeans, a handful of Japanese. Okay, but 453 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: but those are the main countries that are really on 454 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: board the sanctions. So without their help then, um, it's 455 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: not really anyone place. And remember none of this was 456 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: a sanctions issue. This is company's boycotting. That's far more powerful. 457 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 1: If you've got sanctions, companies will to a degree try 458 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 1: to find ways around them, but when it comes from 459 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: the corporate entities themselves, it's over. Okay, um it. But 460 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like the numbers actually haven't dwindled down. 461 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: They're still out putting pretty strong, putting out the caveat 462 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: for Russian data, the best guess is over the course 463 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: of the first month output dropped by between one and 464 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: one point five million barrels a day, but that has 465 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,400 Speaker 1: steadily been built back, and best guess is there within 466 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 1: arms reach of where they started. What has happened is 467 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 1: the Europeans, whether it's because of sanctions or boycott's, aren't 468 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 1: buying Russian crewde. So the Russian crewde has to get 469 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,199 Speaker 1: loaded into small tankers on the western periphery. There has 470 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 1: to be a c to c transfer at some point 471 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: where it gets loaded onto a larger vessel that can 472 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 1: then make the trips to East Asia and South Asia. 473 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: India is the country that is by far buying more 474 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: UH and has almost single handedly made up for the 475 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 1: oil shipments that used to go to Europe. And I 476 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 1: think that also has something to do with this, this 477 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: kind of a game of chicken, maybe that Germany is 478 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: playing with Russia where the North Stream pipeline got shut 479 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: down for service right now, Um, will it come back on? 480 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 1: Will it not? But if Germany were to stop buying 481 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: natural gas from Russia, that might hurt Germany for a year, 482 00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: but once it's replaced and Russia has no one else 483 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 1: to sell it to, so do you think Russia would 484 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 1: be That's the bay going on within Germany right now 485 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: is how much pain can they take and how much 486 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: can it be concentrated? So Germany industry, German industry does 487 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 1: not work like the United States. The United States has 488 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 1: a very diversified system and we're relatively agnostic about where 489 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 1: we get our various inputs, and most of our inputs 490 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: do come from within the North American system or even 491 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 1: the American system. But Germany has has to import all 492 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: of its raw materials that aren't coal, and natural gas 493 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 1: specifically is the basis of the system in Germany. They 494 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: bring in the natural gas. Some is used for power, 495 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 1: but the majority of it is used for heavy industry 496 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 1: in order to make chemicals and plastics and industrial based materials. 497 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: Those based materials are not exported. They are then used 498 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: within Germany to make their heavy manufacturing and their medium manufacturing, 499 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: which then they used to make their light manufacturing. So 500 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: it's all has the same base. And if that energy 501 00:26:55,400 --> 00:27:01,199 Speaker 1: flow stops, there is no alternative. And even if the 502 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 1: Germans succeed in bringing in stuff from elsewhere, whether it's 503 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: piped gas from the North Sea or a liquefied natural 504 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: gas from the Western Hemisphere, it will be at a 505 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: much much higher price point. The Germans are already paying 506 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 1: about six times six to eight times for their natural 507 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: gas now that they were at the start of the war, 508 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:26,119 Speaker 1: and so the entire German manufacturing model is all ready 509 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: under duress and might not be economically viable if they 510 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 1: don't take the cheap stuff that's nearby that can't be redirected. 511 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 1: You have to have a pipeline for that, and that 512 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,960 Speaker 1: takes years, So you're looking at Russian natural gas in 513 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 1: this environment potentially just falling off the market, in which 514 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: case the Germans see prices go up by that much more. 515 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 1: So this, even if it's succeeds, you're looking at a 516 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 1: massive hit to German industry. Now the Russians can make 517 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 1: it worse, and nord Stream is where that factors in. 518 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: So on the eleventh of July the Russians shut it down. 519 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 1: They say it's going to be back after maintenance on 520 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 1: the twenty swond we will see. But on July seventeen 521 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: the Russians declared force majuro on the entire pipeline. That's 522 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: not a maintenance question. They're saying that, no, we just 523 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,120 Speaker 1: can't meet contracts at all. What they're trying to do 524 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 1: is pull Germany out of the NATO coalition on Ukraine. 525 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 1: And since Germany is the home of the major logistic 526 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 1: hubs that Americans used to get stuff further east. Without Germany, 527 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 1: there is not a war in Ukraine that we can support. 528 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 1: So will this work for the Russians, I don't know. 529 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: I mean, if you had asked me on the twenty 530 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: one of February, the day before the war started, I 531 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: would have said, of course it's gonna work. The Germans 532 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 1: have sided with the Russians on every security and energy 533 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: question for thirty years. They have caved every time, but 534 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: so far they're not, so I'd give it a chance. 535 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 1: And we're going to know real soon. The Germans are 536 00:28:56,040 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: represented with the choice. You can remain industrialized but being 537 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 1: neutral in Ukraine, which means we get it, or we 538 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 1: can cut off the energy and you can de industrialize 539 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: at least in part and see a catastrophic reduction in 540 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: your standard of living for at least the next two decades. 541 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 1: This is not a decision I would like to have 542 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: to make two decades. And and and Russia would be 543 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: okay losing that Germany as a customer, I mean the 544 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: the the Russians would always prefer more energy sales than less. 545 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: But you know, this is a country that prides itself 546 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 1: on economic privation, so I think they would be fine. Yeah, 547 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 1: well it's gonna be a tough decision. Now. Um, it 548 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 1: looks like the EU, and this gets a little bit 549 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 1: more financial decision. But I mean the EU, they're they're 550 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: they're e c B. The banking situation, their bond crisis. 551 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 1: Like the pigs, nations are barely hanging on, and without 552 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 1: Germany pulling them forward, the EU couldn't entirely break apart. Yeah, 553 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: everything about the European Union is based on this fragile 554 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 1: balance that existed at the height of globalization, with the 555 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 1: Americans providing total security asking for nothing in return. It 556 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: was never going to last for the long haul. The 557 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 1: question is whether or not this is what kills it. Yeah. Yeah, 558 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: there was a video I pulled up Trump and talking 559 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 1: to Germany and saying, hey, we're you're you're you're asking 560 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: us to protect you from Russia. Um, you're not paying 561 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:17,760 Speaker 1: for it, and now you're giving money to the country 562 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 1: we're trying to protect you from. Uh. I know the 563 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 1: speech you're talking about, and the Germans ridiculed them, and 564 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 1: now they're eating some serious crow. But before we overly 565 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 1: condemned the Germans on this, not that we shouldn't. You 566 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 1: basically described European policy towards Russia for the last thirty years. 567 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 1: America protects US from Russia so that we can buy 568 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:45,680 Speaker 1: Russian energy. That was always a dubious trade. M hm. 569 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 1: Always giving money to the person you're trying to protect 570 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: yourself against It does seem that way. No. I know 571 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: that the Germans did it because they know their history 572 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: and they know that they have this period. They clash 573 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 1: with the Germans and it generates a horrific war. They 574 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 1: make peace, and then they try to find a way forward, 575 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: and so they do a degree of economic integration, and 576 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 1: it never works out, so they clash again. So it's 577 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 1: just they have this dance back and forth and back 578 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 1: and forth, and we're about to go forth really hard 579 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:19,160 Speaker 1: probably now. Um let's jump over to the US and 580 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: our energy policy. So, um, it seems like a lot 581 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 1: of the problems we have are self inflicted. Um. I 582 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: think we can say that, but I would also say 583 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,640 Speaker 1: probably in Germany there's somewhat self inflicted as well. Um. 584 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 1: And so the US is self inflicted energy policy. The 585 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 1: Biden administration seems hell bent on, you know, shutting down 586 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: our own our own investments. So we're under invested in 587 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,520 Speaker 1: the US, so we're not producing as much and even 588 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 1: if we wanted to, we can't just turn it back 589 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 1: on right away. Um. Is that some up kind of 590 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:53,080 Speaker 1: where we're at right now? One of the it takes 591 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: three to eight years to bring a conventional oil or 592 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 1: natural gas field online, so a long time. So if 593 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 1: we tripled investment globally today, you're really not looking at 594 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 1: an improvement FORTI. But it's different for shale. You can 595 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 1: bring a shale well on in three to eight weeks. Now, 596 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: that was back in before we had the everything shortage economy. 597 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 1: Now it's probably more like three to eight months because 598 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: we're having shortages of steel and sand and workers in 599 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: capital just like everything else. But still three to eight 600 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 1: months versus three to eight years is night and day difference. 601 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: So I am not overly concerned about the United States 602 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 1: in terms of energy security, especially when you consider that 603 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: roughly cent of American energy is produced on private land, 604 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 1: and so the federal government has no regulatory authority authority 605 00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 1: over at all. Now could the administ court, especially with 606 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 1: that Supreme Court decision. I don't think it had anything 607 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 1: to do with the Supreme Court decision, or let me 608 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 1: rephrase that, I don't think any other court would have 609 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 1: ruled differently. This is not an issue of Trump getting 610 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 1: three conservatives on the court. There was a similar court 611 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 1: action back during the Obama administration on the Clean Air Act, 612 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 1: which basically broke the same way with a very different 613 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: court makeup. There's only so much authority that the federal 614 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 1: government has over state and private decision making. That's that's 615 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 1: a bug or a future based on your your your 616 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: politics anyway. Point being is we've had a massive drop 617 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: off an investment globally into fossil fuel production, but not 618 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 1: nearly as much in the United States. And if you 619 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,320 Speaker 1: pair that with the quick turnaround time on US shale wells, 620 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: I'm really not overly concerned about the United States. Now, 621 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 1: could we make it smoother and better? Oh? Hell yes. 622 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: I mean, when you are dealing with an inflationary environment, 623 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 1: there are two things you can do. You can reduce 624 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:44,800 Speaker 1: demand or you can increase supply. Biden administration is attempting 625 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,719 Speaker 1: to do the opposite, which is of course very argentinean 626 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 1: and I would not recommend it, but that's where we are. 627 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 1: But it's not like federal government policy can really shape 628 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: this space. So even if Biden was going out there 629 00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 1: and was a cheerleader, that might incourage some financiers to 630 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 1: back some additional oil and natural gas production, but I 631 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,960 Speaker 1: think it would be a difference on the margin rather 632 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:12,879 Speaker 1: than at the core. Now, the Biden administration choosing to 633 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,680 Speaker 1: be relatively hostile to the amerge and American energy complex, 634 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: but then going and trying to bury the hatchet with 635 00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: Mohammed bin Salmon and Saudi Arabia. That just strikes me 636 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 1: as silly. But you know, one miracle at the time. 637 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,880 Speaker 1: You have to take into the stupidity into some of 638 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 1: these calculations. It seems like the silliness, if you will, um. 639 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 1: I try not to speak too harshly about a sitting president, 640 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:39,719 Speaker 1: especially when I look at just the disasters that we 641 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,840 Speaker 1: had for the two previous So you know, Biden, despite 642 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 1: his faults, and he's showing more and more of them 643 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,800 Speaker 1: by the day, is actually willing to have conversations with people, 644 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 1: even if we might think he makes the wrong decision. 645 00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 1: That's already better than the last two you mentioned. Uh. 646 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 1: I think you said Argentinian when you referring to the 647 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 1: US energy Um. If I was looking at like a Venezuelan, 648 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 1: like a blender, it seems like, um. You know, when 649 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,720 Speaker 1: they nationalize the oil industry, things really went downhill fast, 650 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:09,920 Speaker 1: and I see a lot of saber rattling from the 651 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 1: Biden administration, you know, threatening their refineries if they don't 652 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,839 Speaker 1: pick up their production. You know, he's going to use 653 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 1: every tool in his disposal. And it seems like maybe 654 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,279 Speaker 1: there's some threats of this nationalization, and it seemed like, 655 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not I'm not, I'm not too worried 656 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 1: about that. Um, in order to nationalize, we would have 657 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 1: to have people outside of the private sector who knew 658 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 1: how to do this stuff, and we don't. Well, but 659 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,680 Speaker 1: it's also unlikely that they would have the sufficient support 660 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 1: from Congress to pull that off in the first place. 661 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,439 Speaker 1: And remember what went on in Venezuela. The Venezuelan State 662 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,120 Speaker 1: oil company pet of ASA, it was always a national asset, 663 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 1: it was never privatized. Um. What happened in Venezuela was 664 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:52,400 Speaker 1: gross mismanagement and ultimately the state seizure of most of 665 00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:56,440 Speaker 1: the economy not nationalized, basically taking anything that they could 666 00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 1: see that had value, declaring it a state ass said, 667 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,960 Speaker 1: and then cronies of first Chapez and later Maduro basically 668 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 1: going in there ripping up everything that wasn't bolted down 669 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,000 Speaker 1: and some of what was and selling it for like 670 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,759 Speaker 1: scrap on the international market to get a quick kick back. 671 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,960 Speaker 1: And then they destroyed the industrial plant as result, we're 672 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: nowhere close to that. I I can be critical of 673 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,600 Speaker 1: the Biden administration and not be worried at all about 674 00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:23,880 Speaker 1: that scenario. Okay, well that's good. Um. What about the 675 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 1: threat of nuclear war? So um, I grew up under 676 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 1: the Cold War. Um, when I was in high school, 677 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 1: we saw the U. S s R. Fall. It seems 678 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 1: like we kind of have like maybe I don't know 679 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: two or three at least, right we have Russia, we 680 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 1: have I don't know, Israel iran and declared. Okay, I 681 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,319 Speaker 1: love and declared. Maybe there's always been declared. Are there 682 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,560 Speaker 1: any critical critical threats that you see? You think the 683 00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 1: Russia situation is something that's concerning if if, if, if 684 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 1: the Americans and the Russians meet on the field of battle. 685 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,400 Speaker 1: We now know that the Russians are not all that 686 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,879 Speaker 1: and they will be absolutely obliterated. Now the Russians see 687 00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,640 Speaker 1: the Ukraine War is existential to their survival. So if 688 00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 1: we do get in that direct clash, we do risk 689 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 1: heavy escalation into involve nukes very very quickly. And so 690 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,799 Speaker 1: the Biden Administration's goal, and I think on this one 691 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,520 Speaker 1: they're right, is to provide as many weapons as the 692 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,239 Speaker 1: Ukrainians can use as quickly as possible that do not 693 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:24,359 Speaker 1: require an American logistical tail or much training. So they're 694 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 1: not going to get enough thirty five or an M 695 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:27,560 Speaker 1: one Abrahams because you know, you have to train on 696 00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,080 Speaker 1: that for years, literally years. Uh. And the logistical tale 697 00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 1: is important because if we have American convoys with equipment 698 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 1: going into Ukraine, they're going to be guarded by American 699 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,640 Speaker 1: troops with American air power, and then we get that clash. 700 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,560 Speaker 1: Can't have that. So anything that they can use, they 701 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:45,120 Speaker 1: can have, but they have to use it themselves. Uh. 702 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,640 Speaker 1: In that sort of environment, the risk of an escalation 703 00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,520 Speaker 1: is much much much lower. UH. The concern I would 704 00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:54,319 Speaker 1: have for nukes is not with the traditional countries that 705 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 1: we think of the Irans and North Korea, is the Russia's. 706 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 1: You use nukes when you think you can't win a 707 00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:07,200 Speaker 1: conventional conflict, and if the United States is getting stepping 708 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,680 Speaker 1: back from active management of the world, then your Irans 709 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 1: and your Russia's are not the secondary powers, they are 710 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 1: the primary powers. You have to watch out for the 711 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,600 Speaker 1: countries that then are concerned about the Russia's and the 712 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,760 Speaker 1: China's and the Irans. So I don't worry about North Korea, Iran. 713 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 1: I worry about Poland and Sweden and Germany and Saudi 714 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 1: Arabia and South Korea and Japan and Taipwan, countries that 715 00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,359 Speaker 1: fear that if the United States is no longer holding 716 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:35,880 Speaker 1: up the ceiling for them, they're gonna have to do 717 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,320 Speaker 1: with themselves, and that they will need their own deterrent. 718 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 1: And all of these countries have more than enough technical 719 00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,359 Speaker 1: capacity and access to the raw materials to make their 720 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:48,839 Speaker 1: own bombs. So, um, I mean, haven't haven't Russia said like, hey, 721 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:50,960 Speaker 1: United States, we see what you're doing. We see you're 722 00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,840 Speaker 1: providing an intel, you're providing weapons. We consider you're not 723 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 1: in a proxy war anymore. Now we consider you're in 724 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,759 Speaker 1: war with us. We've seen Pelosi and Shift go over 725 00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,080 Speaker 1: and meet with Ukraine and say, work, we're gonna make 726 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,680 Speaker 1: sure you have victory, right and to your point, to Russia, 727 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,279 Speaker 1: it's like the most important thing they have to win. 728 00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,480 Speaker 1: But the US have assured them that we will be 729 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,879 Speaker 1: with you until there's victory, and that Russia sees through 730 00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:15,440 Speaker 1: this proxy. Um, you don't think as long as we 731 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 1: stay out of the country, even though we've seen reports 732 00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,399 Speaker 1: that we have our operatives in the country. You think 733 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,280 Speaker 1: they're okay with that? Yeah, a handful of CI agents 734 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,759 Speaker 1: aren't going to flip the flip flip the balance in 735 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:29,759 Speaker 1: terms of the nuclear escalation issue. Um. Also, I think 736 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,040 Speaker 1: the Russians can read the writing on the wall when 737 00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,360 Speaker 1: it comes to weapons supplies. There's a limited supply of 738 00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,839 Speaker 1: things we can provide the Ukrainians that they can use. 739 00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,600 Speaker 1: We've already given them over a third of our stingers. 740 00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,960 Speaker 1: We've already given them the third of our javelins. At 741 00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 1: the current rate that we are building those out again, 742 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,680 Speaker 1: it's gonna take us years just to replenish what we've 743 00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,919 Speaker 1: already handed over. And we're gonna get to the fourth 744 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,319 Speaker 1: quarter of this year and there's not going to be 745 00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,359 Speaker 1: much left. So we're gonna need some We're gonna need 746 00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 1: them left. Well, something's gonna need to change. We are 747 00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 1: not expanding our manufacturing suppli pins for the systems they 748 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 1: can use nearly fast enough. And when I see we, 749 00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,880 Speaker 1: I don't mean the United States, I mean all of NATO. 750 00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,040 Speaker 1: Uh So we're going to hit a situation probably in 751 00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,560 Speaker 1: the early part of the fourth quarter where we're going 752 00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:15,320 Speaker 1: to face a large Russian force that is badly trained, 753 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:19,320 Speaker 1: badly equipped, with low morale facing off against a Ukrainian 754 00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:24,560 Speaker 1: force with no weapons. There's no math there. So unless 755 00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:28,920 Speaker 1: something significant changes in the West, or the Ukrainians make 756 00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 1: some significant battlefield gains that can gut the Russians very quickly, 757 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,640 Speaker 1: we are nearing a change in this conflict that the 758 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,839 Speaker 1: Russians cannot lose. We're not there yet. War is all 759 00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:45,839 Speaker 1: about unpredictability, but it doesn't look great. Although you did 760 00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:47,960 Speaker 1: do a good job predicting that this war would actually 761 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,719 Speaker 1: come to a head quite a long time ago because 762 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,640 Speaker 1: Russia was going to need to expand their borders and 763 00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,200 Speaker 1: protect themselves down there. Um so, you did do a 764 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,600 Speaker 1: good job of predicting it, and I understand it is unpredictable, 765 00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,160 Speaker 1: but um so, do you see that Russia you think 766 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,480 Speaker 1: finally takes control of Ukraine and the rest of the 767 00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,520 Speaker 1: world is just kind of okay with that, or maybe 768 00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:08,080 Speaker 1: Russia said not okay with it. But yes, if I 769 00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:09,920 Speaker 1: was a betting man, I would think that the Russians 770 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 1: are going to win the war. I'm guessing that they're 771 00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:15,600 Speaker 1: going to crush the conventional resistance this year and then 772 00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,920 Speaker 1: be able to move with relative speed to conquer the 773 00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:22,920 Speaker 1: rest of the country within several months. Um. That doesn't 774 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 1: mean that the war is over. That just means it 775 00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:28,360 Speaker 1: becomes a purely partisan conflict at that point. Now, the 776 00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,680 Speaker 1: challenge for NATO, the challenge for the United States is 777 00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,520 Speaker 1: Ukraine has never been what it's all about. Ukraine is 778 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,120 Speaker 1: simply on the path to the territories that the Russians 779 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:37,719 Speaker 1: actually want. They want to be able to plug the 780 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,440 Speaker 1: access points to Russian lands. That means taken a big 781 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,920 Speaker 1: sliver of Romanian, about half of Poland, as well as 782 00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,880 Speaker 1: all of the Baltic states. So once the Russians are 783 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,600 Speaker 1: feel secure in Ukraine, then they have to go to 784 00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,600 Speaker 1: the war with NATO directly. And that's when the nuclear 785 00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,120 Speaker 1: threat becomes very real, because the Russians know they can't 786 00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:58,000 Speaker 1: win a conventional fight against NATO. So it is in 787 00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,600 Speaker 1: America's best interest to may keep you train is in 788 00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:04,400 Speaker 1: the fight as long as possible, however possible. The question 789 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,160 Speaker 1: is whether or not we're gonna have the weapon systems 790 00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:10,400 Speaker 1: to do that, and that is the big unknown. M Okay, 791 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,839 Speaker 1: let's jump over to the last topic that I have here, 792 00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,239 Speaker 1: which is technology, which we kind of started out with 793 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,960 Speaker 1: in the beginning. UM, and you talked about technology and 794 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,080 Speaker 1: how that's kind of changed the world. So, for example, 795 00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:27,360 Speaker 1: steel having steel for ships. Um. So steel was a 796 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:31,360 Speaker 1: technological revolution. Um, and it gave us ships, It gaves 797 00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:35,279 Speaker 1: us the ability to build skyscrapers and bridges. You have 798 00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,920 Speaker 1: to say that question again. I lost you, Okay. I 799 00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:39,839 Speaker 1: was saying, so let's jump over to the last topic, 800 00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:44,520 Speaker 1: which is technology. And you started talking about technology earlier, 801 00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 1: and you started talking about how the world changed and 802 00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,600 Speaker 1: we had steel for ships. So steel was a technological revolution. 803 00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:54,080 Speaker 1: It allows us to have these seafaring ships. And when 804 00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:55,800 Speaker 1: you go back through history, you see it always seems 805 00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,440 Speaker 1: to be technology that changes the balance of power and 806 00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,279 Speaker 1: then it kind of changes the way the world work. 807 00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,480 Speaker 1: So the gunpowder revolution comes to mind, or maybe the 808 00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:05,560 Speaker 1: nights getting stirrups where they could fight from a horse, 809 00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,880 Speaker 1: and then you have the gunpowder revolution. Um. The industrial 810 00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,239 Speaker 1: revolution brought people, you know, centralized people into cities and factories, 811 00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:16,800 Speaker 1: steal for ships, etcetera. Um. You made the case about 812 00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,319 Speaker 1: money and asset backed money and how asset backed money 813 00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:25,360 Speaker 1: would never work. Um. We have a situation where not 814 00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,720 Speaker 1: only are we seeing all these things changing in the world. 815 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,759 Speaker 1: But we're also seeing like the seems like maybe the 816 00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,320 Speaker 1: end of the fiat money system as we know it today. 817 00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:35,919 Speaker 1: Debt levels are so high. We talked about the bond 818 00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:40,040 Speaker 1: problems over in Europe. Um maybe with the seizure of 819 00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,760 Speaker 1: you know, whatever whatever happened with the Russian FX reserve accounts. 820 00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:44,960 Speaker 1: You know, Zoltan pos Are talks about going from inside 821 00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,359 Speaker 1: money to outside money, back to asset backed money, things 822 00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:52,520 Speaker 1: like that. But we have technology that can now potentially 823 00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,640 Speaker 1: fix that as well. So in a world where you 824 00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,000 Speaker 1: kind of project where we're back to these kind of 825 00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,640 Speaker 1: like smaller island nation states, if you will, instead of 826 00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,040 Speaker 1: this glow vialized world where each nation still needs to 827 00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,960 Speaker 1: have global trade. Um, how do we trust a system 828 00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,560 Speaker 1: that could be sees like the Russians, And it seems 829 00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,840 Speaker 1: like the only inevitable way moving forward to be have 830 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,560 Speaker 1: some sort of like a decentralized ledger that nobody could control, 831 00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:21,640 Speaker 1: nobody has an interest in that. If the goal is 832 00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:26,080 Speaker 1: to get financial security, having a decentralized ledger is a 833 00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,719 Speaker 1: horrible idea because you're vulnerable to anyone who might be 834 00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 1: able to wreck it for any reason. Now, it's we're 835 00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:36,280 Speaker 1: going back to currency blocks most likely. Uh. Now, whether 836 00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:40,520 Speaker 1: that is asset backed or FIAT depends upon the pros 837 00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,879 Speaker 1: and cons of the political and economic system of each 838 00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:46,359 Speaker 1: individual zone. I don't think FIAT is going anywhere. It's 839 00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,200 Speaker 1: not that it doesn't have risk. It's not that it's 840 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:52,120 Speaker 1: not potentially inflationary if it's managed badly. It's that there's 841 00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:56,880 Speaker 1: really no other game in town. There isn't enough precious 842 00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,600 Speaker 1: metals that is available to back a large scale assets 843 00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:05,800 Speaker 1: system anymore. Unless we had significant economic dialing back and 844 00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,719 Speaker 1: I'm talking like an unwinding of eighty percent of the 845 00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,719 Speaker 1: growth we've seen in the world's its nineteen couldn't they 846 00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,759 Speaker 1: just move it for most of us? Couldn't they just 847 00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,640 Speaker 1: raise it an ounce or a hundred thousand dollars an 848 00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:18,839 Speaker 1: ounce and we, I mean, we'd always have enough. We'd 849 00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,359 Speaker 1: have to revalue the gold that that doesn't make it 850 00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:26,360 Speaker 1: very fungible. Uh. When when the asset itself explodes in 851 00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:30,400 Speaker 1: value like that, it gets completely removed from the system. 852 00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,000 Speaker 1: And so anything that has an industrial use in gold 853 00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,680 Speaker 1: has an industrial loose can't play. Yeah, I mean that's 854 00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,080 Speaker 1: the problem with having a commodity money that drives you. 855 00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,480 Speaker 1: If you're going to sign an artificial value to something 856 00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,960 Speaker 1: you just described, fea out to me. But the difference 857 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:48,200 Speaker 1: is that every FEAT that we've ever had goes back 858 00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,160 Speaker 1: to managements. You said, it's always if it's mismanaged, which 859 00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,560 Speaker 1: it always has been, right because of manpower. So man 860 00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:55,680 Speaker 1: always seems to mismanage it, which is why every feat 861 00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,360 Speaker 1: is always lost. Which is why, which is why a 862 00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,799 Speaker 1: commodity that requires some restraint, like a goal standard did 863 00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:06,200 Speaker 1: work better. Well, you have to separate Fiat pre breton 864 00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,719 Speaker 1: Woods and post pre betton Woods. Fiat systems were the 865 00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,640 Speaker 1: countries that for whatever reason couldn't play in the asset 866 00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,200 Speaker 1: backed world, and those all went to ship. Uh. In 867 00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,439 Speaker 1: the post breton Wood system, it's you're really talking about 868 00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,680 Speaker 1: one currency. Everyone's currencies out there basically backed by the 869 00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:24,120 Speaker 1: US dollar and the U S dollars Fiat. Now, could 870 00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,640 Speaker 1: we make the argument the FED could do a better 871 00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:29,160 Speaker 1: job and the US federal governments could do a better job. 872 00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,920 Speaker 1: I don't think that's a hard case to make. But 873 00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:36,560 Speaker 1: if you compare them to everyone else, Uh, the US 874 00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:40,560 Speaker 1: system has expanded its money supply by a proportion roughly 875 00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,720 Speaker 1: equal to the size of the U S economy plus 876 00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:45,120 Speaker 1: the value of all global trade, and it is very 877 00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:48,400 Speaker 1: rarely deviated from that. But if you look at the 878 00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,200 Speaker 1: other big occurrencies that you want, the end of the 879 00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:54,520 Speaker 1: euro there though, and especially the yuand just doesn't do this. 880 00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,239 Speaker 1: It just goes straight up. There's actually almost twice as 881 00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,920 Speaker 1: much you want in circulation today as there are you 882 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,920 Speaker 1: US dollars, and the yuan is not a currency of exchange, 883 00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,840 Speaker 1: it is not a store of value. It is almost 884 00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:09,000 Speaker 1: held entirely within the mainland. So you can make the 885 00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:14,080 Speaker 1: last least dirty shirt analogy is probably broadly appropriate. But 886 00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,640 Speaker 1: the other shirts are so filthy that it makes the 887 00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,360 Speaker 1: US FED just look like a paragon of virtue. I 888 00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:24,799 Speaker 1: definitely agree with that. But what about um like the 889 00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,160 Speaker 1: bricks nations and then starting to try to build their 890 00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,240 Speaker 1: own financial system if they can't trust the FED system 891 00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,600 Speaker 1: that's that they have today. Obviously, like I said, one 892 00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,959 Speaker 1: or three bricks is in charge of it. Again, well, 893 00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,160 Speaker 1: I don't know. It seems like Russia and China seem 894 00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:40,279 Speaker 1: to be putting that together. No, no, no, it can't 895 00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,080 Speaker 1: be both, can't be both. All of the bricks regularly 896 00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:46,240 Speaker 1: manipulate their currency in order to achieve their national economic goals. 897 00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:50,319 Speaker 1: So which one gets to have the currency? And why 898 00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,080 Speaker 1: would the others go for that? Well, that goes back 899 00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,160 Speaker 1: to the crux of the matter, which is the the 900 00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:57,120 Speaker 1: U s has it, but then Russia just had their 901 00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,759 Speaker 1: bank accounts east. So how does any country use this? 902 00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:02,160 Speaker 1: This them like that? You know what's happened to us 903 00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:05,760 Speaker 1: penetration into financial sector since then? It's gone up. Well, 904 00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,120 Speaker 1: it's gone up partly because of the dollar getting so 905 00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,239 Speaker 1: strong and the other currency is starting to collapse right there, 906 00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:13,160 Speaker 1: all trying to move into the dollars. It was going 907 00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,680 Speaker 1: up before we had the big surge of six weeks ago. 908 00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:20,000 Speaker 1: There's just there's not an alternative, for better or for worse. 909 00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,840 Speaker 1: If you want to participate in any sort of international trade, 910 00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:27,560 Speaker 1: you need an intermediate currency that is not regularly involved 911 00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:30,160 Speaker 1: in the trade. And since the United States never bet 912 00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,120 Speaker 1: it's economy on international trade, it really doesn't care what 913 00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,560 Speaker 1: happens to the value of the dollar every day. But 914 00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:37,640 Speaker 1: the Russians certainly care about what happens to the ruble, 915 00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:39,520 Speaker 1: and the Chinese absolutely care about how what happens to 916 00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:43,879 Speaker 1: You want that's a trading country cannot be the store 917 00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,640 Speaker 1: of value. M Yeah, I just don't see how it works. 918 00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,200 Speaker 1: And as the world becomes more decentralized, in each nation 919 00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:52,280 Speaker 1: kind of on their own and in a Russia situation 920 00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,719 Speaker 1: where they're sanctioned, uh, if they are not able to 921 00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:56,799 Speaker 1: use the currency of half the country, half the world 922 00:48:56,880 --> 00:49:00,160 Speaker 1: is kicked out of the dollar system, then they to 923 00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:04,200 Speaker 1: find another system. Yeah, unless the United States ejects them, 924 00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,200 Speaker 1: which is fair. I would actually expect the US dollar 925 00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:09,480 Speaker 1: to become more important because the U s economy is 926 00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,640 Speaker 1: becoming more and more focused on North America. It is 927 00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:13,479 Speaker 1: less and less interested in what happens to the wider 928 00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:16,080 Speaker 1: world economically, and that makes it a better store of 929 00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:19,400 Speaker 1: value and a better medium exchange. Now you kick somebody 930 00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:23,160 Speaker 1: like Russia out, haven't they been kicked out for the 931 00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,080 Speaker 1: most part, Yeah, especially the central bank. And if you've 932 00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:28,439 Speaker 1: seen with how the Russians are handling their trade, they're 933 00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,839 Speaker 1: loading up golden gets into planes and flying them. They're 934 00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:36,000 Speaker 1: they're they're back to barter, right, So, but they've but 935 00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:37,960 Speaker 1: they've been kicked out. So you're you're going to say 936 00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,000 Speaker 1: that throughout if somebody were to be kicked out, then 937 00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:41,840 Speaker 1: they'd have to find a new system. Then they have 938 00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,680 Speaker 1: to find the new system. And the Russians who have 939 00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,400 Speaker 1: been talking, talking, talking about a non dollar system for 940 00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:50,919 Speaker 1: now thirty five years, they're doing gold barter because that's 941 00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,680 Speaker 1: the best option they've got. Maybe there will be another 942 00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,319 Speaker 1: one in the future, but for right now, this is 943 00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:59,520 Speaker 1: as good as it gets. Yeah, well, you kick enough 944 00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:01,719 Speaker 1: people out of system and eventually there's a new system formed. 945 00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:04,200 Speaker 1: I think it is possible, but again, you need to 946 00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,960 Speaker 1: have an impartial arbiter who doesn't care about the value 947 00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,440 Speaker 1: of the currency. And everyone who's talking about moving beyond 948 00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:15,560 Speaker 1: the dollar is a primary commodity exporter. They deeply care 949 00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:20,440 Speaker 1: what the currency is, right right, Yeah, it needs to 950 00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,840 Speaker 1: be a neutral reserve asset. The problem is fet always 951 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:26,520 Speaker 1: becomes political and I can't stay neutral. It seems like um, 952 00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,080 Speaker 1: so it just seems like in in in a globalized 953 00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:30,799 Speaker 1: world like we're in today, it seemed to make sense. 954 00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:32,600 Speaker 1: But as the world seems to break apart, I don't 955 00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,680 Speaker 1: see how that system works anymore. And to your point, 956 00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,720 Speaker 1: barter doesn't work for sure, so um right, but right now, 957 00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,200 Speaker 1: after after dollar fiat barter is as good as it gets. 958 00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:47,480 Speaker 1: That's that's the best economic model to fit it. Yeah, okay, Um, 959 00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:49,560 Speaker 1: of course I like the idea of a decentralized letter 960 00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:51,120 Speaker 1: that nobody controls. I know you're not a big fan 961 00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:54,799 Speaker 1: of that, Um, but it just seems it's it's a 962 00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,319 Speaker 1: neutral asset that nobody can control. And in a world 963 00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,520 Speaker 1: where there's no well, we we have learned through the 964 00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:02,719 Speaker 1: Russian sanctions that there is no such thing as a 965 00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,600 Speaker 1: destrench realized ledger that anyone controls, because you have to 966 00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:07,480 Speaker 1: have access to the real financial system, and that can 967 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,520 Speaker 1: be ended in a day. What do you mean, you 968 00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:12,120 Speaker 1: have to have real access to the finance system in 969 00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:15,160 Speaker 1: order if you if you can't exchange whatever is on 970 00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,200 Speaker 1: the ledger for a currency that you can use in 971 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,200 Speaker 1: daily affairs, it becomes useless. And so one of the 972 00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:21,959 Speaker 1: things that was going on between a lot of folks 973 00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,960 Speaker 1: in the cryptocurrency back when the US FED and the 974 00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,440 Speaker 1: Euros and the Japanese were putting together the sanctions package 975 00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:30,840 Speaker 1: for the Russian Central Bank is they were told flat 976 00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:34,400 Speaker 1: out that either you participate in these sanctions completely or 977 00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:37,440 Speaker 1: you lose access to the real financial world. And you know, 978 00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:39,759 Speaker 1: Bitcoin and ethereum and the rest are all interesting and 979 00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:42,719 Speaker 1: everything but if you can't actually cash it out anywhere, 980 00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:46,560 Speaker 1: then they become worthless overnight, similar to the ruble. What 981 00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:48,760 Speaker 1: do you do with the ruble? Right exactly? The ruble 982 00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:51,399 Speaker 1: is now a completely sequestered currency that is no longer 983 00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,480 Speaker 1: international trade and it doesn't have access to the system, 984 00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:55,759 Speaker 1: although I mut out it doesn't have access to even 985 00:51:55,760 --> 00:52:00,080 Speaker 1: the Russian financial system anymore. So careful what sort of 986 00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:03,440 Speaker 1: conclusions you make about ruble strength versus weakness. Right, But 987 00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,040 Speaker 1: but it is getting stronger. But to the point that 988 00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:09,480 Speaker 1: we're both agreeing to, it's getting stronger bubble. You can't 989 00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,120 Speaker 1: anyone who has rubles can't trade them, and anyone who 990 00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,760 Speaker 1: wants rugals can't get them. So in that sort of environment, 991 00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:18,280 Speaker 1: it's really no longer a currency. Yeah, yeah, I guess 992 00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:21,360 Speaker 1: time will tell if if technology you know, can slowly 993 00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:23,360 Speaker 1: grow and get a foothold in and grow. We're seeing 994 00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,240 Speaker 1: it work in nations like El Salvador, but they're very small. 995 00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,640 Speaker 1: Oh no, no, god, no, it has not worked in 996 00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:32,799 Speaker 1: the Salvador. Well, I mean people are using it to 997 00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:36,920 Speaker 1: buy Starbucks and McDonald's and papoosasah. No, El Salvador is 998 00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:38,200 Speaker 1: going to be a plan for an I m F 999 00:52:38,320 --> 00:52:40,439 Speaker 1: loan before the end of the year. That's that's ending 1000 00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:42,560 Speaker 1: very very badly. I don't think it's ending badly because 1001 00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:44,799 Speaker 1: of bitcoin. I think it's ending very badly for a 1002 00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:47,520 Speaker 1: number of resu They were already ranked one of the 1003 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,719 Speaker 1: poorest nations in the world long before their bitcoin for 1004 00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,400 Speaker 1: a So I just don't don't pin your hopes to 1005 00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,480 Speaker 1: that star. That's all I'm saying. Oh no, I was 1006 00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,160 Speaker 1: only talking about on the part of actually buying goods 1007 00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,080 Speaker 1: and services with it, is the point I was making. 1008 00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,920 Speaker 1: So um, all right, well man, that was that was 1009 00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,600 Speaker 1: a lot to go through. I really appreciate it. Uh, 1010 00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:07,480 Speaker 1: you make me feel a little bit better about China 1011 00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:10,960 Speaker 1: because I've seen this colonization thing that's been been been 1012 00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:12,600 Speaker 1: scaring me. And then, like I said, the threat to 1013 00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,319 Speaker 1: nuclear war. So um, well, I mean, I don't want 1014 00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,600 Speaker 1: to make you feel too secure about China. One of 1015 00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,640 Speaker 1: the problems with a one man show is, you know, 1016 00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:23,720 Speaker 1: we know what's going on in Russia. We have tapped 1017 00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:28,560 Speaker 1: Putin's phone, we are reading his email. G doesn't talk 1018 00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:31,600 Speaker 1: to anyone. There's no way to find out what he's thinking. 1019 00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:35,080 Speaker 1: We can't tap his brain. So if there is a 1020 00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:37,920 Speaker 1: kind of a black Swan risk, that's where it would be. 1021 00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:41,520 Speaker 1: I do have one more question. A threat you you 1022 00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:45,960 Speaker 1: had mentioned before, um like I think it was it 1023 00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,680 Speaker 1: was the Arab Spring. I think Egypt had basically taken 1024 00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:52,120 Speaker 1: themselves off of the Internet, and maybe some of the 1025 00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:54,920 Speaker 1: as this deglobalization happened, some of these nations might be 1026 00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,839 Speaker 1: interested in turning themselves into intranets as opposed to being 1027 00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:01,640 Speaker 1: on global interest and basically with the rush have done so. 1028 00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:03,960 Speaker 1: China has had this great firewall, but they've never actually 1029 00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,200 Speaker 1: decided to take themselves off of the Internet. They've just 1030 00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:08,279 Speaker 1: more tried to control the data that comes in and out. 1031 00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,400 Speaker 1: But you see the potential of a threat of nations 1032 00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:15,719 Speaker 1: turning into private internets and taking themselves off this global Internet. Yeah, 1033 00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:18,640 Speaker 1: I think a broad fractioning of the information I'm sorry, 1034 00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,360 Speaker 1: fracturing of the information space is kind of cooked in 1035 00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:23,960 Speaker 1: at this point. The question is how big is the 1036 00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:25,800 Speaker 1: chunk that you can hive off? So you know, the 1037 00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:29,160 Speaker 1: Western hemisphere at large can be its own thing, maybe 1038 00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:31,680 Speaker 1: with a few connections to countries like the UK in 1039 00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:35,799 Speaker 1: Japan for example, But the idea of a single worldwide web, 1040 00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:38,920 Speaker 1: I think is now on its way to the history 1041 00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:43,120 Speaker 1: or the the ash heap of history. Obviously, the countries 1042 00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,799 Speaker 1: that you're identifying there on the more authoritarian side that 1043 00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,239 Speaker 1: are likely to face extreme economic pressure and being able 1044 00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:53,719 Speaker 1: to control the information space for them is a survival prerogative. 1045 00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,960 Speaker 1: They definitely have to control their narrative, which they're losing. 1046 00:54:58,040 --> 00:54:59,920 Speaker 1: So it seems like the next obvious step in a 1047 00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:01,960 Speaker 1: war of it that is very important for the Chinese 1048 00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:05,520 Speaker 1: moving forward. All right, well, man, we covered a lot 1049 00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:08,319 Speaker 1: with that. Well, when ended, the end of the world 1050 00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:11,160 Speaker 1: is just the beginning. It's thick book with all the data, 1051 00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:14,080 Speaker 1: all the charts, all the graphs. I appreciate all the resources. 1052 00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:15,839 Speaker 1: Everybody should go out and get a copy. Will link 1053 00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,000 Speaker 1: to it down below. Anything else you wanna shout out 1054 00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:22,040 Speaker 1: while we got you a Peter, Uh, Well, it's the 1055 00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:23,799 Speaker 1: end of the world, we know, not the end of 1056 00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,440 Speaker 1: the world. So while it's going to be a mess 1057 00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:29,080 Speaker 1: moving forward, the United States is going to emerge on 1058 00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,640 Speaker 1: the other side of this with a manufacturing supply chain 1059 00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,959 Speaker 1: that is shorter, simpler, closer to home. Energy and food 1060 00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,200 Speaker 1: are going to be fine. We're gonna get through this. 1061 00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:41,279 Speaker 1: But it is not going to be a straight smooth road. 1062 00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:45,200 Speaker 1: So the message of hope, well I I like it. 1063 00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:46,920 Speaker 1: I like it. With that, well, signed off, Peter, thanks 1064 00:55:46,920 --> 00:55:51,560 Speaker 1: so much, appreciate it, No problem alright. Hopefully you enjoyed 1065 00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:54,120 Speaker 1: that conversation with Peter as much as I did. Was 1066 00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,080 Speaker 1: one I was really looking forward to. I recommend everybody 1067 00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:57,800 Speaker 1: go get that book. The End of the World is 1068 00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,000 Speaker 1: just the beginning. That's what I got to your success 1069 00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:00,560 Speaker 1: A out