WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 6 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.959 Check it on man. Now down, man, it is the 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:16.080 unnumbered day in Monday morning. To you, it's still Alexander. 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:18.959 Hope you dealing well. Hope your weekend was a fine one. 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.319 Mine was pretty damn good. We'll get in all that 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:25.000 here momentarily on the show today, of course, guessing lines. 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.800 That's what we do each and every Monday for weeks 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:31.000 six in the National Football League. Chris Andrew's uh standing 0:00:31.040 --> 0:00:33.159 by to join us, the South Point sports book director, 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:37.280 my buddy Chrissy, who uh is uh gonna have his 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:39.880 work cut out for him today because with all the 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:44.080 postponements and the rejiggering of the NFL schedule, we're gonna 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:46.360 have to figure out what games are actually being played 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:49.199 next week in which have been scuttled, and we'll give 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:53.840 you the whole domino effect of what one postponement means 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.960 two eight other games and how many teams are affected 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.880 in the NFL schedule. So we'll get into that well, obviously, 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.040 talk about the Lakers briefly, gets I have a baseball 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:07.080 pick for today. Let me begin before we launch into 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.319 guessing lines, though with I'm sure what a lot of 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:14.720 listeners are waiting to talk about the victory at the 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:17.400 French Show. But if you're just landing on this show, UH, 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:20.120 this is an army of winners from this show. On 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:24.200 Egas fat Tech winning the Ladies French Open, Ladys side 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:27.440 of the French Open in UH in Paris over the weekend. 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:32.720 Roland Garros egaswattechas Fotech rather is a pick we made 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:35.520 for the first time at the end of January. Dan 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.400 Weston was on the show. We ran the tape last 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:42.840 last week. We talked about EGA double digit amount of times. 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.520 After that, Jason Khan produced a number seven in his 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:50.080 UH producing number seven sweepstakes entry video, even talked about 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:53.320 his egos Fatech bet Um that he made it tech. 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.840 Nichols sadly that was that went by the wayside. Sorry 0:01:56.840 --> 0:02:00.560 about that, Jason. That was very unfortunate circumstances. But I 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.560 was just so thrilled for everybody. It was one thing 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.600 that I won this it was it was another thing 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:09.200 that everybody. We had at least a hundred plus people 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:12.920 and I'm probably being modest about that number, but at 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.560 least a hundred people post to Twitter before the weekend, 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:20.720 and then once she won on Saturday, just it was 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:24.840 an all day affair on Twitter answering everybody responded, everybody, 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:27.840 everybody was awesome. I'm so pumped for everybody and this 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:30.320 is and I'll I won't be labor this too much 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:31.680 this morning, because I know we want to get into 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:34.520 guessing lines. But you know, the very first prediction made 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:37.799 on this network, we had a Super Bowl show when 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.560 when Visa first started in seventeen, it was during the 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.480 Patriots Falcon Super Bowl and Brent leaned over to me 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:45.160 and said, you know, give me the value picked for 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:47.000 next year Super Bowl. And I said the Eagles thirty 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.520 to one, and the Eagles ended up winning the Super Bowl. 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.960 And on this show since then, we've had great moments. 0:02:54.080 --> 0:03:00.639 Tanka Palooza, the longest running, the longest running betting stretch 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:05.720 that anyone could ever hope for, uh, the obligation of 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:08.519 betting the Washington Nationals as big dogs to the Astro's 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.200 time and time again last year. And just in women's 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:14.440 tennis to begin with Bianca and Dresscoo to win the 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:19.960 U S Open, Sophia Kennon to win the Australian Open 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:23.000 earlier this year at eight to one odds. I believe 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:26.200 it's where we got her and then this is this 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:28.639 is honestly the mic drop moment for this because I 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.960 don't think it can get better than this, Like this 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:35.920 is just sort of the moment where we just have 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.400 to appreciate what just went down. Not only was she 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:41.040 as high as a forty to one favorites, I got 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:42.880 her as high as thirty three to one, but I 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.040 know there were some listeners who got her at forty 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:49.480 to one. But given the the time before, the distance 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:54.360 in time before the event when we made the call 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:59.200 that nine months beforehand, the long shot nature of her 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:03.760 and the sheer dominance with which she won the tournament, 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:09.000 making it a perfectly hedgeable moment going into the finals. 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:12.600 I think that's the key betting key of it all, 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.080 the key betting detail of it all. I don't think 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:20.520 it gets better than that. Egas Vatk dropped twenty eight 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:25.520 games in fourteen sets of tennis, she never gave up 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:30.279 more than four games, but she never gave up more 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:32.119 than four games, and she only gave up four games 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:36.240 in a set twice throughout the entire run and did 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:39.080 not get a favorable draw. Her opening round match was 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.720 against Marquetta Vondrosova, who was a finalist in the French 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:43.800 Open last year. It was one of Dan Weston's pre 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:49.560 tournament picks futures picks to make. She crushed her six 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:54.039 six one. Uh. She ends up having to play the 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.760 number one seed, Samona Hallip, crushes her six s two 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:02.320 and then ends up playing Sophia Kennan, are girl in 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.080 the Australian Open who's as mentally steely as they come, 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:10.360 and beat her six four six one, cracking Kenan mentally 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:13.800 in the finals. As they said in the old Milwaukee commercials, 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.880 it don't get no better than this. It's a double negative. 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:18.600 But you know what I mean, skill Alexander. It's a 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:22.040 numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network. Um so 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:23.800 let us all enjoy the moment. And again I'm just 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:29.440 so happy for everybody who bet alongside uh Igasvatek. There 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:31.640 are her numbers, by the way, accorded about three six, 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:33.960 five six two six one six four six three six 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:36.080 two six one six two six three six one six 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:39.040 to six one six four six one, fourteen sets, won, 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:42.440 fourteen sets, the youngest female French Open winner since nineteen 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.479 hundred and ninety two. And uh, it was just the 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:48.760 thing where I had seen her get to the fourth 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.599 round last year on clay as an eighteen year old, 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:53.200 got all the way to the fourth round before Holliet 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:56.479 crushed her. But she had won every single final she 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.039 had played on the Satellite Tour, the i t F, 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.960 the International Tennis Federation Tour, seven of them. And she 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:05.479 gets it done in a big way. So congratulations to 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:11.320 all group. Hug group high fives. It is just a 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:16.680 sensational moment. And uh, may everybody enjoy hope you had 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:19.160 as great a weekend as I did, enjoying that, celebrating 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:23.120 that to city celebration for me. Jason. All right, let's 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.600 get some lines that said week number six of the 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:28.600 National Football League. Let's bring him in. He's my mish 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:31.680 from the South wayde Hotel Casino. It's chrisy Andrews. Good 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:37.240 morning to you, Chris, you well. First of all, congratulations 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:41.560 and that was one hell of a pick and you 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:45.000 deserve to run win it. So and Tony, everybody followed it. 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.440 I'm sure they did really well, so good for them. Yeah, 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.799 that's great, That's what I'm most happy about that. Everybody 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:54.440 amazing arm for me of people who jumped on that pick. Uh, 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.600 there really was. I haven't followed tennis, and but of 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:01.880 course I follow you, and uh just see all the 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:06.200 comments you you you drew an army of uh well 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:11.840 fans and better too turned your suggestion into from serious cash. 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.440 That's what That's what it's all about here. So we 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:16.960 were at just a great moment and I hope people 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.560 bast in it for at least the weekend. That that much. 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.240 And then there was the NFL yesterday Chrissie which uh, 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.800 which which went well for me. Uh it was four 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.760 and one in the contest survivor pick got through. It 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.720 was a bit of a survivor carnage, which we'll get into. 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.520 Um and said a lot of things to talk about, 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:36.840 and I said at the top, you got your work 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.960 cut out for you here today, because between what is 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:45.120 getting played and what isn't is a whole another discipline. Yeah, 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.800 I was talking about humans last night, we you know. 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:49.480 And he ad asked me to be looked at all 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:51.840 the schedule pause. But as a matter, I really haven't. 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.640 Everything's written in pencil right now, so it comes up 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:57.480 and there's no reason for me to look ahead and 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:59.720 start dealing with it because I don't know what's real, 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.640 and it isn't and isn't anybody else, So you know, 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.480 I mean, it's uh, it's we already lost a couple 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:08.360 of college games, by the way for the week, so 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:11.280 you know, hopefully we won't lose any pros. But you know, 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:14.120 I don't know. And the one thing we do know 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:18.000 is because Denver and New England, well, okay, Denver, New 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:20.360 England our postpone. We'll get into the whole domino effect 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.600 of that. But we know tonight as the Chargers in 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:26.320 New Orleans, New Orleans without Michael Thomas, tonight our seven 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:30.360 point favorites against the Chargers. UH and with UH and 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:32.840 the story with Michael Thomas, just to get the exact 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:36.559 wording here, UH sources telling Adam Schefter that the decision 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.120 came after the star wide receiver had an altercation with 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:43.560 a teammate at practice this weekend. It was with safety C. J. Gardner. Johnson, 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.480 according to multiple reports and confirmed by ESPN, has nothing 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:50.080 to do with Michael Thomas's injury. So New Orleans Chargers tonight, 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:54.360 then tomorrow Buffalo, Tennessee, and so as long as that 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.360 game's schedule for tomorrow, we don't have a Thursday night 0:08:57.400 --> 0:09:02.120 game next week? Correct, That is correct? Yes, okay, so 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.520 shall we start with Sunday morning? Let's try this, tell 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:11.560 you what I'm throwing a curveball here? Okay? Can we 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:16.400 start with Tuesday because this game is looks like it's 0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:18.840 gonna be played, but there has not been numbers on 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:21.760 it all week, and so I'm definitely throwing your curveball. 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:24.520 As as you were talking about, Ego Swappeck, I was 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:26.760 doing a little work myself trying to figure out what 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.400 number I like, but the numbers just popping up, and 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:31.960 I think we should probably discuss that before we go forward. 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:36.320 That's tomorrow night's game, Buffalo at Tennesseey Buffalo at Tennessee. 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:38.280 I'm gonna see what I guessed last week on it, 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.880 just to see how my how my thinking might have 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:44.200 changed with one week of idle this right like that. 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:46.320 I think that's an interesting exercise to what did I 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:49.240 think it was gonna be last last week? I thought 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.960 it was gonna be Tennessee minus one and a half. 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:57.320 Now a week later, with Tennessee not having played an 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:01.280 additional week, so they they've been they've been off for 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:05.480 a while. They've only played three football games. That's probably 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:09.960 you see, it's interesting just having not played an additional 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:14.520 week that probably swings a little more to Buffalo. Maybe 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:16.880 it's a pick of maybe it's Buffalo minus one and 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:22.680 a half. I'd say I'll go most of Buffalo. It 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.360 was Buffalo like three and a half, three with a 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:30.720 lot of juice on the favorite, Buffalo the favorite. So 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:34.400 uh it is really swung Buffalo's way. Now my numbers 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:38.760 without a home field advantage or Buffalo by three and 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.079 a half, but again without a home field advantage. Uh 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:46.760 So I'm probably and I'm still my study on home 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.960 fields are still very inconclusive. Let's say that. So I'm 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.440 gonna probably open this game three. And I've been feeling 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.800 the public will come in the bills of the Mine Street. 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.440 But again, I think Tennessee's been underrated all year. But 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:02.120 I still play three. Is what I'm gonna open this one, 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:05.199 Buffalo minus three. And that is it's a quirky thing, right, 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:07.840 My guests would have been one thing last week and 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:12.480 it would have shifted based on just Tennessee being rusty? 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.679 Is it rest or rust? Right, that's the whole thing 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:20.520 with it. So Buffalo Buffalo minus three Okay, I also think, 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:22.800 you know, football players, they're talking about it all the time. 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:26.080 They're really creatures. I have it. You do this on Tuesday, 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:28.560 you do this, only do this on thurs blah blah 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.720 blah blah blah. Right down the line. Well, I mean, 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:34.240 they're very been more disrupted than any team you know, 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:36.720 by far, and I would say so far in this league. 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:41.320 And Buffaloes. You know, I don't hear of any problems 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.240 with Buffalo, So I think the situation is kind of 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.280 swung Buffalo's way. And I don't know what I had 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:49.640 last week. I don't have my notes, but I think 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:51.720 I think three is probably a legitimate number, and I 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:54.240 think the money will show on Buffalo the minus street. Yeah, 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.040 I don't have a problem with it. I don't have 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.679 a problem with it, said Buffalo minus one and a half. 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:01.559 But I get the three. All right? What's first on Sunday? 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:05.440 Then Week six? Okay, now here we go Sunday, the 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.120 Bears at the Panthers, Bears at the Panthers, the four 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.800 and one Chicago Bears, pardon me, and the three and 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:16.720 two Carolina Panthers Bears. As we know on extra rest 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.880 here they beat Tampa Bay twenty to nineteen on Thursday 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:23.679 Night did so behind Nick Foles thirty forty two to 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:27.800 forty three, one touchdown, one pick, three sacks, Allan Robinson 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.320 ted catches for ninety yards. Khalil Mack had two sacks, 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:33.320 but they only had two forty three total yards only 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.320 thirty five rushing yards. And as I talked about on 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:41.600 this show on Friday, Matt Naggy, I just listen, Lincoln 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:45.160 Riley did this with Oklahoma on Saturday. To these coaches 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:48.760 just do not I do not understand how they do 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.600 not understand how to win football games. At the end. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:53.320 I know it worked out for both of those guys 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.560 in the end. But in the case of the Bears, 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:58.000 second and nine at the Tampa Bay twenty four with 0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:01.240 one eight left down ninety to seventeen, Tamba Bay only 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:03.640 has one time out left. All they have to do 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.400 the Bears is run the ball into the line. Taba 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:08.040 will have to spend their last time out and then 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:10.440 they can run it into the line again and basically 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.319 bleed the clock down enough so that they'll get their 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.760 field goal and Tom Brady will have no really no 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.160 time left on the clock to operator very minimal time 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:23.240 instead folds incomplete pasta Robinson and it completely changes the 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.960 win probability of the game because then when the Bears 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.120 kicked the go ahead field goal to make it twenty 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.800 to nineteen, Tom Brady has all the time in the world. Now, 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:32.840 I know Tom Brady thought he had five downs. So 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.000 it ends up working out for the Bears in the end. 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.600 But good lord, what are you doing so the Bears 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:42.880 will have extra rest? Carolina yesterday, uh gets it done again. 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.200 Carolina beats Atlanta twenty three to sixteen. I know you've 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.800 been a big Teddy Bridgewater guy for a long time. 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:51.079 He was twenty seven and thirty seven for three thirteen, 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.880 two touchdowns, no pick sack, zero times, was not sacked. 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.480 Mike Davis sixteen eighty nine on the ground, nine catches 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:01.040 for sixty sixty yards and a touchdown by Anderson one 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:04.480 twelve DJ more and a nice touchdown down the sideline. 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:07.760 Four hundred thirty seven totally yards for the Panthers. I'll 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:12.400 say Panthers minus three and a half. Chris, Well, you're 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:15.040 a little bit high. It's a two and half of 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.640 three h three with the juice on the dog. Tune 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:22.720 out the juice on the favorite. I kind of liked 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.800 the two and a half a little better, but I 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.720 really think this, um, I think this Panther team is 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.440 kind of coming on. And I'm looking at Teddy. My 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:36.200 notes on Teddy. His QBR is eighty five point seven, 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.720 and I think the week before and again for one 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:42.440 these weeks just run at each other. I can't always remember, 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.400 but I think he had his best game since the 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:48.440 injury the week before. And you're right, I have loved 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.040 Teddy Bridgewater since he was in college and I was, 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:54.680 you know, I felt for the kid when you had 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:57.520 that devastating injury because I really think Teddy was Pennsylvan 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.320 for star. And in this league, they're also starting to 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:04.040 run the ball very well, even without Christian McCaffrey, and 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:08.480 keep this team's coming on. And the Bears think the 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:10.520 worst four and one team in the history of the league. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:12.360 I mean, I think you can make a legitimate argument 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:21.280 for that could legitimately be five really conservatively four yeah, yeah, 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:26.360 oh easily, easily, easily uh And then I go with 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.160 a two and a half a thick right now. But 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:32.640 I understand your feelings on it, and you know, my 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.080 my power ratings only have a half a point better 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.040 than the Bears. But again, I'm still looking at some 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.040 of this home field stuff. So I think I'm gonna 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:40.720 open to an f see that they want to go 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:43.520 with it. That I understand your point. And by the way, 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:46.200 let's say this, Uh you know, think got Matt Rule, 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:50.680 a rookie coach for the Carolina Sometimes you guys work 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:54.120 out great, Oftentimes they don't. This guy looks like he's 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.040 learning the NFL game a little bit, and I always 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.240 really like him in college. And maybe he's a smart guy. 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.240 Maybe he's figuring this out and improving this team along 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.160 the way started owing too. Now they're three and two, and, 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.680 as you said, doing it without Christian McCaffrey, who will 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:14.320 come back here sooner than later. I like my number better. 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.040 I like the three and a half. Uh, paper tiger, 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:23.000 Chicago Bears, paper tiger. Alright, number two. What's next? Detroit 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:29.440 at Jacksonville, Detroit at Jacksonville, Detroit having to buy this week, Jacksonville. 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:32.400 Here's the thing about that game. By the way, Jacksonville 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.760 loses to Houston thirty to fourteen in a game that 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:40.840 looks like they got blown out Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew thirty 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.000 one forty nine for three oh one two touchdowns. No, 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.600 Pixie was sacked three times. Labiscos his number one receiver 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:51.480 seven for seventy nine UM. But Jacksonville and Jacksonville was 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.880 depleted defensively, so they shouldn't have been in this game. 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.920 But man, were they in this game. Uh the two 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:01.520 field goals, Stephen how should miss two field goals? One 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.440 of which was from twenty four yards out? So those 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:06.119 are two field goals wiped off the board. I think 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.640 the other one was like forty seven yards and then 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.080 they had a pick, they had a short field. Uh, 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:13.600 they were right in the game. They could have taken 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:15.800 the lead. Instead they end up with zero points. I mean, 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:18.880 there was all kinds of things that Jacksonville they just 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:21.199 couldn't get out of their own way, and so they 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:23.919 end up losing this game and not covering. But it 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:28.560 was way closer than the score indicates, which I think 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:30.600 is more of an indictment of the Texans than it 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.520 is saying anything about the Jaguars. I mean, I don't 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:35.480 have much else to say about this. Detroit coming off 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:41.200 bye week here, I'll say Detroit minus three at Jacksonville. Yeah, 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:43.679 you're a little like my numbers come the four, but 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.280 it's mostly three and a half. I think there was 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.760 one three years there's one three a pinnacle with a 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:51.920 bunch of juice on the favorite. Uh So I think 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:54.000 the three and ass okay, I said my number actually 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.880 comes a little higher. I think jackson were going back 0:17:56.880 --> 0:18:00.960 to that game yesterday. Uh probably why an indictment in 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:05.280 Houston because I thought the situation with the firing of O'Brien, 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.680 the fact that they hadn't won a game playing a 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:12.280 division rival who they should beat. Uh, you know, and 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:14.080 a lot of wise guy money did show up on 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:16.120 Houston there at the end, and I think they had 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:21.400 the right idea. Um, but Houston and uh, well we'll 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.320 we'll get to them a little bit, I guess, but 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:25.639 you know, they're just not that good right now. Although 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:27.520 it felt good for Romeo for now, I mean, as 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:29.240 guy's been around the leading for a long time, nice 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:31.720 to see him get the win. But I like three 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:33.960 and a half. I think that's okay, but I would 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:36.119 like a little bit higher if it came HIRER. I 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:38.840 just think Jacksonville right now is not a very good 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:43.520 football teaple. Not that Detroit is but like I said, 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:47.840 my numbers just come, you know, beat higher. That's all 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.360 in a season in which Bill O'Brien and now Dan 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:56.439 quinn in Atlanta, along with along with the GM Demitrof 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.480 have lost their jobs, Bill O'Brien being both coach and 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:03.160 GM Matt. If Matt Patricia loses this game to Jacksonville, 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:06.560 I wonder if he is third. I wonder what's another one, 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:11.280 Chris on on Sunday morning, we have the Falcons at 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:13.760 the Vikings. So the Falcons, as the just mentioned, no 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:17.119 Dan quinn uh done as the head coach of the 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:20.760 Atlanta Falcons. And here's the thing, it's kind of a 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:24.080 move you probably should have made before the season. I 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:27.280 agree with our buddy Chris Felika who said, now it 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:31.120 just kind of looks like you're admitting your mistake doing 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:33.640 it now. I kind of agree with that. Atlanta loses. 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.160 As we mentioned to Carolina, Matt Ryan was twenty one 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.760 thirty seven for two twenty six, no touchdowns, one pick, 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.560 uh sack twice. Todd Gurley looking good four team for 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.320 one twenty wanted a touchdown, Calvin really eight for one 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:49.600 thirty six, and then there is Minnesota Kirk Cousins twenty 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:53.000 seven thirty nine last night in the Vikings defeat at 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:56.080 the hands of the Seahawks twenty seven to twenty six 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:01.159 Wow Alexander Madison twenty one twelve, Dalvin Cook seventeen for 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:02.680 sixty five and a touchdow before we went out with 0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:05.760 a groad injury, Adam Feeling nine for eighty for two touchdowns. 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.879 The Vikings out gained the Seahawks four forty nine to 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.840 three fourteen. They had the advantage in time of possession 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.800 thirty nine minutes and twenty eight seconds to twenty minutes 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:19.560 and forty two seconds. I'm gonna leave it there. I'm 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:21.040 gonna give you my guests right now, and then we're 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:22.679 gonna get into all the shanigans. At the end of 0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.680 that game. I'm gonna say it's Minnesota minus four. Hold 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:29.680 hold your thoughts on that, Chris, because I wanna uh 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:34.000 feel like your number better. Thank you three and a half. 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.360 My numbers come to three and a half. Excuse me 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:39.040 if I number come to three and a half with 0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:41.560 no home field, I think you've gotta give Minnesota a 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:43.720 little bit here, so I would like this at least 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:47.040 four or better. I'll open three. Now see what they 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:48.440 want to do with it. But again, if I see 0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:51.640 it's skewing higher, I'm gonna go higher. But let's talk 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:56.119 about that game last analytics. Let's I think you might 0:20:56.160 --> 0:20:58.119 be surprised how I feel. I'm curious how you feel? 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:01.400 Should I start? Okay, I'll set it up. No, let 0:21:01.440 --> 0:21:04.520 me start. You know the analytics much better than I 0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:09.480 you as I can see that a million percent, all right. 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:12.280 They give you like the wind probability, you know, if 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:15.320 he goes for it and misses, if he goes for it, 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:17.320 makes it. And I understand he goes for it makes it. 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:21.560 It's essentially or if he kicks the field goal and 0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:25.800 goes up by eight with the wind probabilities my question, 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:28.480 and I don't know the answer, and so I'm asking you, 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:31.520 and uh, if our friend Rufus is listening, I know 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:34.040 he's big on nice and he could give a you know, 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:37.119 a pre detail the answer too. They gave you the 0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:41.400 win percentage possibilities if they go for it and don't 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:43.120 make the first down, and I think it was six 0:21:43.200 --> 0:21:47.920 percent if I remember correctly. Does that take it into 0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:52.080 account that it's Russell Wilson on the other side, or 0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:56.160 does it or is the same win amount with whether 0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:59.240 it's uh, you know, c J. Becker at the quarterback 0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:03.520