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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast and.

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Speaker 2: It is good one.

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Speaker 3: Now it's all a.

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Speaker 4: Little drinking about it now and to remeever, we'll see

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Speaker 4: all fine.

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Speaker 5: Singer Shot, Hello and welcome to the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 4: This is the English Premier League betting preview show. I'm

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Speaker 4: so pleased to be joined today by our two soccer analysts,

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Speaker 4: Anthony Debundo of Pennsylvania and of course most popular accountant

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Speaker 4: BJ Cunningham Fellas. This new Premier League season starts on Friday.

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Speaker 4: How excited are you?

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Speaker 3: I'm very excited. I mean, it's we're ready for another

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Speaker 3: for an Arsenal title. We're ready for one of maybe

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Speaker 3: one of the greatest Premier League stories of all time

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Speaker 3: in Brighton bringing home the title. There's so much intrigue,

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Speaker 3: there's so many transfers coming in. It's going to be

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Speaker 3: a wonderful season.

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Speaker 4: Michael, And that's about the most Iowa excitement I've ever heard.

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Speaker 4: You know, it was like almost like you didn't want

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Speaker 4: to offend me with your excitement exactly.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's more than anything, it's more important to

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Speaker 3: be polite than anything in.

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Speaker 4: This That's that's beautiful. That is actually on the Iowa.

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Speaker 4: What is that that's the Latin motto of Iowa, Do

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Speaker 4: not Panic. The Action Network Podcast has not become a

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Speaker 4: soccer show yet like we did.

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Speaker 3: For the Euros. We're delivering a one time soccer preview

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Speaker 3: episode for you guys, but as a programming note, here's

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Speaker 3: what's going on.

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Speaker 4: Stucky and Colin Wilson and the rest of our college

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Speaker 4: football crew can now be heard on Big Bets on Campus,

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Speaker 4: our new collegecast feed here at Action Network.

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Speaker 3: Our NFL Fantasy content with Chris Raybron and Sean Corner

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Speaker 3: can be heard on Fantasy Flex, another new podcast feed

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Speaker 3: about to debut, and our golf podcast content can now

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Speaker 3: be heard at Links and Locks with Jason Sobel and

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Speaker 3: Justin Ray And check out this episode description for links

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Speaker 3: to all our other new podcasts.

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Speaker 4: This podcast, the Action Network Podcast, is devoting itself to

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Speaker 4: NFL betting, along with some special events sprinkled in throughout

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Speaker 4: the year, and we'll have shows every week leading up

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Speaker 4: to Week one, and then we'll have three shows a

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Speaker 4: week every week of the NFL season, including our flagship

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Speaker 4: betting preview episode with Stucky and Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 3: So stay tuned right here to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 3: for great NFL episodes and even some occasional soccer content unless.

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Speaker 4: We're all fired by Chad Milman. First, that's right, we're

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Speaker 4: talking about soccer here on the Action Network podcast. Chad

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Speaker 4: Milman has finally relented, So here we are, Anthony. You've

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Speaker 4: been covetching all more about Spurs and Harry Kane and

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Speaker 4: all sorts of things. How are you excited? Are you

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Speaker 4: just kind of dreading the upcoming soccer season?

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Speaker 1: I'm excited. I mean it feels like the Euros ended

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Speaker 1: like twenty minutes ago. We had an awesome summer with that.

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Speaker 1: Then there was the Gold Cup, which ended up being

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Speaker 1: more interesting than I thought it was going to be crazy.

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Speaker 1: We've got all the domestic main leagues coming back in

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Speaker 1: the next two weeks. Let's have some fun.

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Speaker 4: If you joined us, you know last year you saw

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Speaker 4: that our soccer coverage grew exponentially, a little peak behind

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Speaker 4: the curtain of the audience too. They loved it, like

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Speaker 4: there was a lot of engagement on our soccer content.

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Speaker 4: So we're happy to keep providing it as long as

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Speaker 4: you guys keep reading and listening. And the best way

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Speaker 4: to do that, of course, is to you know, leave reviews.

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Speaker 4: Tweet at Chad Millman incessantly saying more soccer, more soccer.

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Speaker 4: We love hearing from these guys. Give them raises. Whatever

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Speaker 4: you guys want to tweet at Tad Millman. As long

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Speaker 4: as it's to help us grow our soccer profile, we're

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Speaker 4: on board. But let's get to it right. Let's we'll

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Speaker 4: take a quick look. This is we're recording this on

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Speaker 4: Tuesday morning. So here are the odds as they stand

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Speaker 4: at that time for the Premier League via bet MGM,

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Speaker 4: who are the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 4: Man City odds on at minus one fifty. They're followed

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Speaker 4: by Chelsea and Liverpool both at five to one, Man

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Speaker 4: United plus seven to fifty, and then we've got a

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Speaker 4: big drop off between Man United and Tottenham, Leicester and Arsenal,

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Speaker 4: Tottenham and Leicster at forty to one, Arsenal fifty to one.

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Speaker 4: Couple teams in the one hundred to one range Evertton

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Speaker 4: at one hundred to one, west Ham one fifty to one,

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Speaker 4: Leeds one fifty to one, Aston Villa two hundred to one,

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Speaker 4: Wolverhampton aka Wolves two fifty to one, newcast So also

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Speaker 4: to fifty to one. As are the team of our

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Speaker 4: favorite team on this podcast, the team that will break

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Speaker 4: your heart every time they step on the field. And

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Speaker 4: guess what it's like. You go golfing, you suck at

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Speaker 4: golf and then you hit a good shot on the

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Speaker 4: eighteenth hole and you come back to them. Brighton hove

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Speaker 4: aalviyon two fifty to one, Southampton did three fifty to one,

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Speaker 4: and then we got the real, real long shots Brentford

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Speaker 4: five hundred to one, Crystal Palace five hundred to one,

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Speaker 4: Burnley five hundred to one. And if you're looking for

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Speaker 4: a Leicester City twenty sixteen type story, Norwich and Watford

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Speaker 4: are both at one thousand and one. Bjay, Is there

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Speaker 4: any reason to bet any of these teams? Or is

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Speaker 4: man City at minus one fifty? Is that just going

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Speaker 4: to be a romp?

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Speaker 3: I think there is a lot of value in betting

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Speaker 3: Chelsea right now, basically what they did over the second

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Speaker 3: half of the season. If you remember, they actually beat

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Speaker 3: Manchester City in the Champions League Final and what really

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Speaker 3: changed for Chelsea's On January twenty seventh, Thomas Tuchel came

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Speaker 3: in to manage the team and he changed their formation

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Speaker 3: from a four to three to three to a three

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Speaker 3: four to two one, and it completely made Chelsea one

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Speaker 3: of the best teams in the Premier League. They had

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Speaker 3: a plus twenty point nine one expected goal DIFFERENTI when

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Speaker 3: playing out of that formation. They're basically bringing back the

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Speaker 3: exact same roster, while it looks like they're going to

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Speaker 3: add one of the best strikers in the world in

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Speaker 3: Romol Lucaku, who scored twenty eight goals for Inter Milan

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Speaker 3: last season and then had a point seven to three

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Speaker 3: expected goal per ninety minute scoring rate. The closest Chelsea

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Speaker 3: player in terms of scoring rate was point four to

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Speaker 3: six and that was Timo Werner and we all know

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Speaker 3: how that ended up. Over the nineteen matches that he

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Speaker 3: managed for Chelsea, he accumulated forty two point seventy four

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Speaker 3: expected points, which was the most in that time span,

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Speaker 3: more than Manchester City. So I don't really think there's

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Speaker 3: any reason why Chelsea shouldn't be under three to three

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Speaker 3: to one to win the Premier League. So I think

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of value at five to one. And

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Speaker 3: I can already hear a lot of people saying, well,

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Speaker 3: what about Liverpool. You know they're five to one. All

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Speaker 3: their defenders were hurt last year well in their during

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Speaker 3: their Premier League championship season in twenty nineteen, and in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty they drastically overperformed. They had a plus fifty

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Speaker 3: two goal differential, but their expected goal differential was plus

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Speaker 3: thirty five point six to two. And let's play a

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Speaker 3: little game of expected points per match. So if we

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Speaker 3: take Manchester City's Premier League championship last year, Chelsea's nineteen

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Speaker 3: matches under Tuchel in Liverpool's Premier League title season where

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Speaker 3: everybody was healthy, Manchester City average two point one nine

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Speaker 3: expected points per match, Chelsea under two chill average two

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Speaker 3: point two five expected points per match. In Liverpool in

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Speaker 3: their Premier League title season only averaged one point nine

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Speaker 3: to five expected points match. So in my opinion, it's

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Speaker 3: a two horse race between Manchester City and Chelsea. I

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Speaker 3: do think Chelsea has value and I think there is

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Speaker 3: a way you can kind of get cute with this

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Speaker 3: Chelsea exact finishing order Chelsea first, Manchester City second is

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Speaker 3: eight to one instead of so instead of Chelsea five ones,

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Speaker 3: I think you're getting to some free odds there. If

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Speaker 3: it truly is going to be a two horse race,

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Speaker 3: So for me as far as the top four teams,

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Speaker 3: I think Chelsea has a lot of value at five

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Speaker 3: to one, and also be playing Chelsea Manchester City exact

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Speaker 3: finishing order eight to one.

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Speaker 4: I think we've seen right. Like bet MGM has said

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Speaker 4: that Chelsea is actually their biggest liability, that they're the

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Speaker 4: most bet team to win the title. Then you know

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Speaker 4: they're followed by the other quote unquote big clubs here

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Speaker 4: in America, Man United in Liverpool. So there is some

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Speaker 4: liability on Chelsea, but they do seem to be gaining

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Speaker 4: a lot of esteem, not just with betters, but like

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Speaker 4: you listen to other soccer podcasts or previews and it

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Speaker 4: does seem like a lot of people are believing in

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Speaker 4: like the Thomas tucle Revolution, and I mean why not, right?

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Speaker 4: They just they just won the Champions League, right, Like, So, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: is there is there any reason do you think to

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Speaker 4: rebut that? Or is it a two horse racer? Do

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Speaker 4: you think it's just you know, Man City Chelsea are

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Speaker 4: pass at this point.

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Speaker 1: I really wanted to get in on Man United. I

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Speaker 1: think they've done some really good business this summer, getting

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Speaker 1: Jayden Sancho from Barusha Dortmann and getting Ralphael Veran from

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid swore up two of their three biggest areas

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Speaker 1: of need. But I don't trust Edison Cavani as the

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Speaker 1: striker for a long term season. He hasn't necessarily proven

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Speaker 1: he can stay fit and play that many minutes, and

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Speaker 1: they still have midfield issues that they haven't addressed yet.

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Speaker 1: So it's hard to get behind United as a title challenge,

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Speaker 1: especially given how slow they've started in recent years under Ole.

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Speaker 1: Go on to Soli Shar, I agree with BJ. I

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Speaker 1: mean Chelsea, I think I was a year ahead on

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Speaker 1: else last year when they signed harts Werner last year,

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Speaker 1: I was so excited in Thiago Silva and they didn't

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Speaker 1: have the manager to put the pieces together and Frank

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Speaker 1: Lampard at the time, and they really kind of were disjointed,

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Speaker 1: and Havertz and Werner struggled to adjust at the Premier

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Speaker 1: League a little bit. But I mean second half of

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Speaker 1: the season Kai Havertz was awesome. They addam Lukaku. I

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Speaker 1: think the two of them could be really fun. Christian

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Speaker 1: poolistics Canna play wing back. It looks like he's gonna

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Speaker 1: maybe do. We'll see how that works. But Tuco is awesome.

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Speaker 1: He's one of the best managers in the world. And

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Speaker 1: like Bja mentioned, expected goals wise, they were better than City.

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Speaker 1: They beat him three times and they really their possession

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Speaker 1: dominant side really was hard to score against. The run

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Speaker 1: they went on defensively was historically good. They were allowing

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Speaker 1: less than half an expected goal per ninety for most

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Speaker 1: of that stretch until the very end of the season.

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Speaker 1: So really hard to not take Chelsea at five to one,

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Speaker 1: especially because I think that they're much better than Liverpool

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Speaker 1: and marginally better than Manchester United.

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Speaker 4: One thing I will note for h if you are

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Speaker 4: looking at Betman City, just be patient, right, like, you know,

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Speaker 4: sit back, wait because Kevin de Bruyn is hurt, Phil

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Speaker 4: Foden's hurt. They're getting so many guys back from Euro's

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Speaker 4: Copa America whatever international duty they just pulled. And last

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Speaker 4: season Man City was eighth at Christmas. So you if

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Speaker 4: you do think man City can win this title, there's

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Speaker 4: really no uh, there's really no harm in just sitting

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Speaker 4: back waiting. Let's let them lose a couple of games,

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Speaker 4: maybe that those odds will drift. If Chelsea or United

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Speaker 4: or Liverpool get off to a hot start, you could

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Speaker 4: be looking at a at a much fatter price for City.

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Speaker 4: So if if that is your if you are a

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Speaker 4: City fan, you want to you know, throw throw some

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Speaker 4: money behind your team and just get action down. Maybe

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Speaker 4: just maybe just be patient. Uh, let's move down the board, right,

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Speaker 4: Like the Premier League is a league that famously lacks parody,

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Speaker 4: you base it's it's similar to the NBA where you

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Speaker 4: kind of just know what teams are going to be

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Speaker 4: contending for the title from the beginning. You can see

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Speaker 4: it coming from years out. But you know, there has

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Speaker 4: been the Leicester City factor. Right, We've seen less City

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Speaker 4: win at five thousand and one odds not that long ago.

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Speaker 4: Not saying that we'll see that here of course, but

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Speaker 4: there are some intriguing sleepers, some guys down the boards

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Speaker 4: in that you know whatever forty to one range. When

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Speaker 4: you've got four teams sucking up all the value, there's

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Speaker 4: gonna be a lot of teams that are at good

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Speaker 4: prices they could tempt you, Anthony, Is there a team

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Speaker 4: in particular that you think, whether it's to bet them

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Speaker 4: to win the title or just to back them in

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Speaker 4: a different way, what long shot are you kind of

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Speaker 4: most bullish On as we get towards match week one.

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Speaker 1: I mean it has to be Brighton, right, and I

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Speaker 1: know that Bjay has already sort of talked about them,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna be talking about them a lot this

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Speaker 1: season if you follow us, like, they have the most

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Speaker 1: historically unlucky season in the history of the Premier League

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Speaker 1: in terms of not even just missing chances. And you

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Speaker 1: can make the argument, oh, they aren't clinical in front

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Speaker 1: of goal. They don't have strikers who are good finishers,

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Speaker 1: and that's a fair point, and there are reasons to

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Speaker 1: expect them to run even or slightly behind their x G.

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Speaker 1: But this was a huge gap that, you know, a

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Speaker 1: level finishing that we have never seen. They had two

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Speaker 1: players and Leandre Trossard and Neil Malpet who were kind

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Speaker 1: of their main shot getters who really underperformed, but even

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Speaker 1: their secondary attacking players who were midfielders were getting shots

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Speaker 1: forty seven shots no goals from from from some of

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Speaker 1: their midfielders. You know, it's kind of crazy and it's

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Speaker 1: kind of unsustainable. And really, the the other thing is

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Speaker 1: defensively too, Opponents were really good at shooting against them

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Speaker 1: for some you know, unlucky reason when you went to

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Speaker 1: go play Brighton, your team was going to shoot really

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Speaker 1: well that day, and that's just they ran into that

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Speaker 1: a lot. They lost a ridiculous number of one goal games.

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Speaker 1: They had a lot of late, you know, goals they

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Speaker 1: conceded for draws. I mean, they were six best in

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Speaker 1: in XG last year. They were eighth best at one

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Speaker 1: point I think in my power ratings. So they're a

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Speaker 1: really good team that you can get at plus one

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Speaker 1: ninety at bet MGM. I saw to finish inside the

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Speaker 1: top ten, which I think is my favorite bet that

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Speaker 1: I've placed across all of Europe so far.

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Speaker 4: This season.

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Speaker 1: I think Brighton's going to have a really good year,

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Speaker 1: and they really made a big move in adding and Wetpu,

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Speaker 1: a midfielder who is going to really partner well with Basuma.

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Speaker 1: If they lose Bisuma, that's that definitely hurts, but they're

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Speaker 1: keeping him and the two of them are going to

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Speaker 1: wrack midfields. So I'm really excited to see Brighton this year.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have some positive regression.

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Speaker 4: BJA. I've been told that we have to keep this

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Speaker 4: podcast under an hour if possible, and that's not fair

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Speaker 4: to you because I know, you want to talk about

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Speaker 4: Brighton for the next you know, two or three hours,

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Speaker 4: but you know, I'm sure that we're going to be

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Speaker 4: hearing about them all season, but you're wearing their jersey,

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Speaker 4: write your love letter.

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Speaker 3: Well, maybe I'll just go do my own podcast for

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Speaker 3: like three hours on Brighton. But so let's put some

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Speaker 3: numbers behind what Anthony was saying. For, you know, their

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Speaker 3: expected gold differential. So last year they had a plus

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Speaker 3: thirteen point nine to one expected gold differential, which was

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Speaker 3: fifth fifth best in the Premier League, but they somehow

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Speaker 3: finished with a negative six goal differential and only forty

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Speaker 3: one points. So there was about a twenty goal gap

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Speaker 3: between what their actual performance was what their expected performance was.

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Speaker 3: And I went back and looked in history because I

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Speaker 3: wanted to see, you know, has anything like this even

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Speaker 3: come close to happening before. And the closest thing that's

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Speaker 3: happened was they only started tracking expected goals back in

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Speaker 3: about twenty fifteen. In the twenty seven eighteen season, Crystal

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Speaker 3: Palace had an actual gold differential negative seven, but a

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Speaker 3: plus three point two one expected goal differential. So and

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Speaker 3: even with their expected points, they only had been finishing

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Speaker 3: like seventh rather than eleventh. So we've never seen anything

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Speaker 3: to the level of Brighton, where based on their expected

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Speaker 3: points they should have finished fifth, but they actually finished

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Speaker 3: eleven spots below in sixteenth. So if positive aggression happens,

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Speaker 3: which it should, I mean, they're just gonna fly up

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Speaker 3: the table this season. And what's crazy about what they

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Speaker 3: did is most of this bad luck came at home

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Speaker 3: at the beautiful American Express Community Stadium on the beautiful

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Speaker 3: south coast of England. I know me and Anthony both

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Speaker 3: ben to Brighton, but at home that last season they

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Speaker 3: had a plus eighteen point one to three expected gold

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Speaker 3: differential and only conceded just zero point eight to one

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Speaker 3: expected goals per match. Only Manchester City Chelsea. Yeah, the

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Speaker 3: two teams that were in the Champions League Final had

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Speaker 3: a better expected goal differ differential at home than Brighton,

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Speaker 3: so it's almost impossible that they had a zero goal

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Speaker 3: differential and twenty one points in nineteen matches. So my favorite,

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Speaker 3: like kamp Anthony said, you know, signing in Waipoo is

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Speaker 3: a dream signing for them. I went and did some research.

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Speaker 3: His nickname was the computer at Salsburg because he's just

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Speaker 3: a tactical genius he makes really quick decisions when passing

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Speaker 3: the ball in tight spaces and he actually played six

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Speaker 3: different positions at Salsburg, so he's really versable and he

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Speaker 3: can allow Basuma to play his natural position. So, like

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Speaker 3: Anthey said that midfield is going to be unbelievable this year.

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Speaker 3: My favorite bet with Brighton is ten to one to

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Speaker 3: be the top team outside of the Big six. So

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Speaker 3: Manchester City, Manchester United, Toddham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool. They

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Speaker 3: had the most expected points of anybody outside the top

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Speaker 3: six last year, so it's kind of crazy that they're

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Speaker 3: sitting there at ten to one six team on the

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Speaker 3: board when they probably should be around three to one,

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Speaker 3: four to one. So, like you know, I'm honestly, I'm

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Speaker 3: just betting Brighton every possible way I can, you know,

327
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Speaker 3: every single weekend, along with all the futures around them.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, give me Brighton every possible way of the season.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think a lot of people you know, and rightfully,

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Speaker 4: so we're talking about Brighton because of like you guys said,

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Speaker 4: incredibly unlucky, talented team, great manager. I think to two

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Speaker 4: teams that maybe people aren't seeing coming for different reasons

333
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Speaker 4: are Wolverhampton and aston Villa. One of my favorite bets

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Speaker 4: every Premier League season is that you know, bet three

335
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Speaker 4: six five at points. Bet you can bet teams to

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Speaker 4: finish first by Christmas, uh and then or you can

337
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Speaker 4: finish bet teams to finish bottom at Christmas and you

338
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Speaker 4: could cut the season in half. You can embrace a

339
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Speaker 4: little bit more variance that way. As I said earlier

340
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Speaker 4: in the podcast, Man City was eighth place at Christmas time,

341
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Speaker 4: so you just there's some craziness. I like both of

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Speaker 4: these teams to be top at Christmas. Just from a

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Speaker 4: value perspective. You're looking at eighty to one for aston Villa,

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Speaker 4: who yes, they just look loss of Jack Grealish, But

345
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Speaker 4: I mean as a team replaced the player better in

346
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Speaker 4: this kind of situation than aston Villa did this summer

347
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Speaker 4: with bringing in Danny Ings and Leon Bailey and Emmy

348
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Speaker 4: Gundia from Norwich, Like you can't replace Jack Realish with

349
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Speaker 4: another Dack Grealish, Like it's just not gonna happen. Those

350
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Speaker 4: guys hopefully to combined can can pick up some of

351
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Speaker 4: his slack and changes the team dynamic a little bit.

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Speaker 4: But whatever I mean we saw Villa was really good

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Speaker 4: at the start of last season. Yes, they did have

354
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Speaker 4: Jack Realish back then, but I mean if you're if

355
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Speaker 4: you're looking for a team that can maybe you know,

356
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Speaker 4: make a run through the first couple months of the season,

357
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Speaker 4: I think Villa are not not a bed you know

358
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Speaker 4: dart throw and for Wolves like this team, you got

359
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Speaker 4: to throw out basically everything you saw from them last

360
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Speaker 4: year because they're changing from changing managers from Nuno Spirito

361
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Speaker 4: Santo who's now at Tottenham to Bruno Lage, who's another Portuguese.

362
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Speaker 4: Wolverhampton are just a Portuguese club in the middle of

363
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Speaker 4: England somehow over the past couple of years. That's that's

364
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Speaker 4: what they've become. And Bruno Lodge is going to play

365
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Speaker 4: a very different style of football then we saw from Nuno,

366
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Speaker 4: who was kept things very compact and predictable. They lost

367
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Speaker 4: Rabul Jimenez to a horrific injury nine games in last season.

368
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Speaker 4: He comes back in the fold and they have a

369
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Speaker 4: lot of attacking talent that their new manager can can

370
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Speaker 4: toy with, can play with and find the right combination.

371
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Speaker 4: I don't think anyone's going to see this team coming

372
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Speaker 4: with him and Az and if maybe a Donald Troori

373
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Speaker 4: has a bounced back season, pod enz is A is

374
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Speaker 4: a great creator. Trincau joins them like there's just a

375
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Speaker 4: lot of attacking talent here. I think they're a good

376
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Speaker 4: overteam in terms of game by game because if you're

377
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Speaker 4: looking from what they did last year where they played

378
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Speaker 4: a lot of low scoring and defensive games, I think

379
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Speaker 4: they'll they'll have some value in the early going as

380
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Speaker 4: an overteam. And I also think just a little sprinkle

381
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Speaker 4: on them to finish topic Christmas two hundred to one,

382
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Speaker 4: I think I saw points bet that's a that's an

383
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Speaker 4: absurd number. I think just you know, why not Weillverhampton that.

384
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Speaker 4: I think they're gonna be a fun team to watch

385
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Speaker 4: and a good team to kind of just get behind.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, am I crazy, Anthony?

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Speaker 1: I am not high on Wolves. I know that there

388
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Speaker 1: is reason to be optimistic about some of their pieces,

389
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Speaker 1: but they really haven't gotten young enough for me in

390
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Speaker 1: the key areas you know, most notably the back and

391
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Speaker 1: then the center of the midfield. Pedro Nato is one

392
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Speaker 1: of my favorite players in the prim I'm surprised that

393
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Speaker 1: he hasn't been bought by a bigger club yet. He

394
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Speaker 1: is awesome, and really I think he was second to

395
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Speaker 1: Grealish in progressive carries per ninety, which is you know,

396
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Speaker 1: really important in terms of progressing the ball forward into

397
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Speaker 1: the penalty area. So he was amazing for them. But

398
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Speaker 1: I am not nearly as sold on Wolves, just because

399
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Speaker 1: I don't really trust him and as that much coming

400
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 1: officer drew some injury where he missed so much time

401
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 1: and his production numbers weren't quite as good even before

402
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Speaker 1: the injury. Now granted, like you mentioned, with the new

403
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Speaker 1: No situation, like, they were much more conservative than they're

404
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 1: going to be under brew No now new No to Bruno,

405
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Speaker 1: But I think that I think the Wolves are kind

406
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Speaker 1: of just a mid table team for me. I don't

407
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Speaker 1: think they're in relegation danger, but I think they're pretty

408
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Speaker 1: safely in the mid table, all right.

409
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Speaker 4: I mean I think you're wrong, as simple as that.

410
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Speaker 4: I think Wolves are much better team than you give

411
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Speaker 4: them credit for real quick like, I don't think there's

412
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Speaker 4: any reason to get too deep into the other one

413
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Speaker 4: hundred and ones two hundred of ones right now, but

414
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Speaker 4: just a quick mention, I think one team that that

415
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Speaker 4: could go either way is my beloved Everden at one

416
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 4: hundred to one talk about a summer in turmoil. They

417
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 4: do seem to always in the in the preseason at

418
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 4: least generate some interests as a long shot, because they

419
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 4: do have some name name brand behind them. But I

420
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,719
Speaker 4: don't want to say they had a bad summer, but

421
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Speaker 4: they definitely had like a weird one with obviously Rafa

422
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 4: Benitez coming in, very few transfer like notable transfers to

423
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,239
Speaker 4: Mary Gray and Andrews Towns in come in just to

424
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 4: serve ball into dominic Calvert Lewin. But I do wonder,

425
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Speaker 4: and this is going to bring us into our next section,

426
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 4: if they're like a sneaky bet to be relegated at

427
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 4: twenty to one? Am I just being you know, kind

428
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Speaker 4: of like a doomsday sayer here, BJ Or do you think,

429
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Speaker 4: like you know that of those teams that in that range,

430
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Speaker 4: I just think that they're the ones that they're the

431
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Speaker 4: one that feels safe, like eighth place or whatever, that

432
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Speaker 4: actually has a much lower floor than the others.

433
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know if you're necessarily crazy. I mean,

434
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: if you look back like two seasons ago to the

435
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 3: twenty twenty season, I mean they were kind of a

436
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 3: little bit in danger of relegation. They were, you know,

437
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 3: below the top ten. They obviously didn't do much in

438
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,479
Speaker 3: the transfer market. And Andrews Townsend from watching him over

439
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 3: the years, he's one of the most selfish players in

440
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: the Premier League of holding the ball. So I don't

441
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 3: know if he's gonna be serving many balls to Calvert Lewin.

442
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 3: But I mean at twenty to one, I mean I

443
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: think I would like see a little bit of a

444
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 3: higher price than that. I mean, this team is still

445
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 3: way better than some of the teams that you know

446
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 3: have relegation odds around, you know, even money plus two

447
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 3: hundred and everything like that. I would probably stick around

448
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: there for you know, in a realistic sense, of those

449
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 3: teams get relegated, I mean, something drastic has to happen.

450
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 3: I mean, but you know what, Ralph Benitez has got

451
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 3: a team relegated before in Newcastle, so who knows what

452
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 3: can happen?

453
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 4: Interesting, all right, So let's just move on. Another fun

454
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,880
Speaker 4: bet to make, of course, is teams to be relegated.

455
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 4: Which teams will not play well enough, will not a

456
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 4: mess enough points to stay up in the Premier League.

457
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 4: Usually they say around forty points is where you need

458
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 4: the threshold, the high watermark two stay up. Taking a

459
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 4: look at Bett MGM, of course, the official odds provider

460
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 4: of this podcast. Norwich City is odds on minus one

461
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 4: ten Watford even money. Brentford. Let's pause real quick at

462
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 4: talk about Brentford for a second, because we, as a

463
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 4: gambling podcast, should note Brentford was bought about a decade ago,

464
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 4: maybe a little less by a professional gambling syndicate and

465
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 4: what happened He turned them into a just a behemoth

466
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 4: in terms of producing players, buying low, selling high. The

467
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,479
Speaker 4: type of thing that you hear all of us talk about,

468
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 4: you know, good betting hygiene. Brentford the Bees. They're plus

469
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 4: one twenty five to stay up in their first Premier

470
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 4: League season. Crystal Palace plus one sixty, Burnley plus two twenty,

471
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 4: Newcastle plus two seventy five, Southampton four to one, Wolves

472
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 4: five to one, are beloved, Brighton five and a half

473
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 4: to one, Villa six to one, West hamp eight to one,

474
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 4: Leads eight to one, Everton twenty to one, Arsenal forty

475
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 4: to one, Tottenham fifty to one, Leicester fifty to one. Gentlemen,

476
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 4: we'll start with bj Which of these teams do you

477
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 4: think are worth backing to go down or to stay

478
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 4: up if you think you know, there's a team or

479
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 4: two that provide value in going the other way.

480
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go Watford to go down at even money.

481
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: They were actually pretty lucky to finish in the second

482
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 3: automatic promotion spot in the Championship last year. Were really high,

483
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: highly overrated. They had an actual goal differential plus thirty three,

484
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: but their expected goal infrenial was over ten goals lower

485
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 3: at plus twenty point eight. So you know, I'm a

486
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 3: big nerd and I love maths, So let's do some

487
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: math real quick. So since two thousand and five, teams

488
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 3: coming up from the Championship have allowed fifty four percent

489
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 3: more goals per match in the Premier League than they

490
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 3: did in the Championship, and conversely, offenses see about a

491
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: thirty five percent dip and goal scoring in the Premier League.

492
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 3: So if we take Watford's expected goals in the Championship

493
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 3: of one point four to eight per match and we

494
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 3: reduce it by thirty five percent, we get point nine

495
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: to seven expected goals in the Premier League. And so

496
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:37,919
Speaker 3: if we take then if we take their defense of

497
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 3: one point zero two expected goals allowed per match and

498
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: we add on fifty four percent, we get one point

499
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 3: five seven expected goals per match in the Premier League. Then,

500
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: if we go on to the full season and take

501
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 3: point nine to seven expected goals per match times thirty

502
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 3: eight matches, we get thirty six point eight six expected goals. Conversely,

503
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 3: with their defense, if we take one point five to

504
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 3: seven expected goals allowed times thirty eight, we get fifty

505
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 3: nine point six expected goals allowed for a negative twenty

506
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,239
Speaker 3: two point eight expected goal difference. Now why is that significant? Well,

507
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: the negative twenty two point eight expected gold differential is

508
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 3: projected to be dead last coming into the season, since

509
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 3: the other two promoted teams, Norwich and Brentford, had expected

510
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 3: better expected goal differentials than Watford in the Championship last year,

511
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 3: and the only team that had over a negative twenty

512
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 3: expected gold differential that actually survived in the Premier League

513
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 3: was Burnley. Watford also made no significant moves in the

514
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 3: transfer market. Their average per player squad value was the

515
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: lowest in the Premier League according to transfer market dot com.

516
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 3: So give me Watford anything minus one twenty or better

517
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 3: to get relegated.

518
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 4: Watford, of course, the beloved team of Sir Elton John.

519
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,199
Speaker 4: So if he is listening, BJ has just become his

520
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 4: least favorite. Iowen, I'm assuming not who knows. With Watford,

521
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 4: I think their manager, I'm not even trying to pronounce

522
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,479
Speaker 4: his name. They he won't last, you know, more than

523
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 4: three weeks. That's what they do. They kind of just

524
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 4: rotate in managers from like the Israeli League or the

525
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 4: Georgian Premier League or whatever. I'm not not terribly into it.

526
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 4: And one thing I do want to note BJ is

527
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 4: that when you go overseas, when you talk about math,

528
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 4: you actually it's actually a plural. It's maths. So if

529
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 4: there are if we are getting a new you know,

530
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 4: audience here from from over there, we apologize for BJ

531
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 4: because over here in the States we take the s

532
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,479
Speaker 4: out of that. It's not mathematics. It's it's not maths,

533
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 4: it's math here. I don't know which way is better.

534
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,199
Speaker 4: I prefer maths because I think it's a funny thing

535
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 4: to hear, Anthony, you and I kind of on the

536
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 4: same page here. There's another team in the south coast

537
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 4: of England that we are not terribly fond of in

538
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 4: terms of their prospects. For the season. Talk to us

539
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 4: about your relegation bet.

540
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: First all endorse BJS minus one ten on Watford. I

541
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 1: don't love betting teams that even money to get relegated,

542
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 1: but my projections are pretty close to his in the

543
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 1: sense that I have them about minus point five xg

544
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: P ninety, which is usually bad enough to get you

545
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: relegated in the league. But the team I'm looking at

546
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: a Southampton and if you look at their numbers to

547
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: end the season, they were horrible. They started the year

548
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: the first fourteen matches they were in the top four.

549
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 4: People actually had.

550
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: Pretty significant you know, they were thinking, oh, you know,

551
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: Raf Housenhodle's done it again. He was becoming darling amongst

552
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 1: the managerial choices to get a big promotion.

553
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 3: To a bigger club.

554
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 1: But they ran really hot to start the year and

555
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 1: then you know, they hit a cliff. They were absolutely

556
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: dreadful the second half of the season. They were one

557
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 1: of the worst teams. They were twentieth in points after

558
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: December fourteenth, and they were seventeenth and expected goal difference

559
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: after December fourteenth, which was most of the second half

560
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: of the season. So when you look at that and

561
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 1: new factor in that they're losing Danny Ings to Aston Villa,

562
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 1: who was their best goal scorer. They're relying on Chay

563
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: Adams and Adam Armstrong who they just signed from the Championship.

564
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: Decently promising striker but no Premier League's experience always questionable,

565
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: and really it comes down to the fact that they

566
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: press more than almost any team in the league and

567
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 1: they have play a high intensity style. They rely on

568
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: a lot of interceptions and turnovers and they make the

569
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,239
Speaker 1: game kind of chaotic. That's how they defend, that's how

570
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: they create by winning the ball high up the pitch.

571
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 1: They weren't able to do it nearly as well last

572
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: year because of players just and having no legs, less

573
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 1: time they recover. Their squad is really thin. Their goalkeeper

574
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 1: issues were well documented. Both their starting end backup goalie

575
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: were well below their expected goals numbers, and James Woodprouse,

576
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: who scored a bunch of free kick goals and was

577
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 1: awesome on set pieces, is injured to start the year,

578
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: maybe out to a month. So there's a lot of

579
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: big red flags for Southampton at plus five point fifty

580
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: and then Burnley as well. Burnley super concerning numbers, they're

581
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 1: basically reliant on breaking XG because Sean Dish kind of

582
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: knows how to. You know, if you have a ton

583
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: of bodies in between the ball and the goal, and

584
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: you have a really good goaling who can shot stop shots,

585
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: you can definitely stay up if the players put the

586
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: work in. But their intensity numbers went big time at

587
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 1: the end of last season. Their strikers are aging, they

588
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: haven't really replaced them. So at two point fifty, I

589
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: like Burnley. I wouldn't go lower than that, but I

590
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: think Burnley's time in the prem may also be coming

591
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 1: to an end. So those are the two teams I'm

592
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: looking at.

593
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 4: Yah stop us. If you've ever heard that one before,

594
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 4: this is this is finally the year that Burnley goes down.

595
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: I have not been in the past. I have always

596
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: been a believer in Dish, but it seems like the

597
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: players aren't believing him him in him as much as

598
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: they used to.

599
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 4: I think that if there was ever a season where

600
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 4: it kind of like, you know, he's a polarizing figure

601
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 4: because of the underlying metrics that his team's produced, but

602
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 4: if there was ever a season for him to kind

603
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 4: of prove like, oh no, like he actually has kind

604
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 4: of wizarded his way past you know, ext gy and

605
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 4: chance creation metrics like this. This will be the one

606
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 4: because I think after this year, if they stay up

607
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 4: and they do it kind of in like a safe fashion,

608
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 4: he might get, you know, some shouts for Manager of

609
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 4: the Year. I love the man. I think he's fun.

610
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 4: He's he's very blunt. He's bald like me, which I

611
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 4: enjoyed too. Like Anthey said, I I like Southampton. I

612
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 4: think I'm gonna go price hunting, as I usually do

613
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 4: in these kind of things. I like twenty to one

614
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 4: to be bottom at Christmas because, like you said, James

615
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 4: word Prowse, he is going to be out for a while.

616
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 4: This team, I think they play City, Chelsea, Everton and

617
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 4: Man United in four of their first seven games. I

618
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: can just see this team getting off to a really

619
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 4: slow start, Hassen Huddle getting jettisoned. If you are overseas

620
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 4: or something, you can bet first manager to be sacked.

621
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 4: I think he's a he's a fun bet too. He

622
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 4: was around ten to one I saw overseas. So that's

623
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 4: that's the team I think is worth. It has the

624
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 4: most value in terms of like a good number to

625
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 4: bet to be relegated or just to bet to be

626
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 4: really bad. Their point total points bet is like forty

627
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 4: three and a half. I think the under is pretty

628
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 4: good there too. So let's move on to the Golden Boot.

629
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 4: Another really fun market to bet, the Premier League, I

630
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 4: mean soccer markets. There it's like Christmas, It's the best.

631
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: I think that, of course. I think there. You know,

632
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 4: there's there's a ton of people you can bet. I

633
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 4: think it's it's not really worth chasing, you know, the

634
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 4: Harry Kyanes of the world at the top of the board.

635
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 4: But there are some numbers further down the list that

636
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: I think are not only fun to bet, but also

637
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 4: provide some value. BJ what do you think where you

638
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 4: spend some money, you're some beer money in the Golden

639
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 4: Boot market.

640
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 3: Well, I already spent some money on Ali Watkins and

641
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 3: then aston Ville for some inexplicable reason, just went out

642
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 3: and signed Danny Ings for competition purposes. So I've litten

643
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 3: those tickets on fire. But I'm gonna go down the

644
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: board a little bit more and I'm gonna go to

645
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 3: your Evertonians and I'm gonna go with dominate Calvert Lewin

646
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: at thirty five to one Anthony kind of talked about this.

647
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 3: When you're betting Golden boot futures, you basically want a

648
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 3: guy who's gonna be on penalties and doesn't really have

649
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 3: a lot of competition up front if you're gonna be

650
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 3: betting one of the guys on one of the teams

651
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 3: outside the top four, and Calvert Lewin fits that mold.

652
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: I mean last season he's not only Everton's number one striker,

653
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: but he's one of the best in the Premier League.

654
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 3: He created the fourth most expected goals at eighteen point

655
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 3: one two and thirty three appearances, scoring sixteen of them.

656
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 3: In fact, he had the third best non penalty expected

657
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 3: goal per ninety minutes scoring rate in the league. He

658
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 3: didn't take penalties last year, but Guilfy Sigerton was the

659
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: one on penalties, and if you do a quick Google

660
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 3: search you'll figure out that he's not going to be

661
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: on the team probably this year, so there's a good

662
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 3: chance that Calvert Lewin will be the penalty taker. So

663
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 3: Calvert Lewin's a very versatile striker. He's got great attack positioning,

664
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: deadly right foot, plays well in the air. In fact,

665
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 3: seventeen of his fourteen career Premier League goals have come

666
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 3: off of headers, so I love his value at thirty

667
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 3: five to one when he should be probably like fourth

668
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 3: or fifth on this board at twenty twenty five to one.

669
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 3: So I think you're getting good value on Calvert Lewin.

670
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 4: He was near the top of the list to to

671
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 4: start the season last year and then slowed down with

672
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 4: Everton a little bit. I actually bet him last year

673
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 4: at eighty to one was a year early. Whatever. I

674
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 4: will also note that Calvert Lewin has a chance to

675
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 4: probably be the most handsome player in the league this year.

676
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 4: He is, you know, he's just had a Donna's great hair,

677
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 4: great face, great beautiful eyes, great teeth, and amazing thighs. Anthony.

678
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 4: On that note, let's seguey over to your pick.

679
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: I really struggled with this pick because I really don't

680
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: have anyone who jumps off the board. I would tend

681
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: to agree on Calvert Lewin. I think that that's a

682
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: good pick. He was one hundred and one last year.

683
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: I think I think Michael had that, So that was

684
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: a that was a great bet because he was leading

685
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: at one point, and he was he got off to

686
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: a really fast start before Everyton kind of ran out

687
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: of gas, so I think Calvert Lewin's a decent play.

688
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 1: At thirty five to one, that's pretty much all I

689
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: have Pats and Dhaka, but Vardy and'ach is still there,

690
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,479
Speaker 1: so that's out. For Lester. He's like sixty five to

691
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: one if you wanted to get really crazy. But for me,

692
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: you know, there's just no value in a guy like

693
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: Caine or Sala. You know, I wish I could fat

694
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 1: Obamba yang season total number if they did a goal

695
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: over under. I'd love to take under because he's completely cooked.

696
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: But you know, if Arsenal signed like Lataro Martinez, that

697
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 1: would a really good pick, I think, But otherwise not

698
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: a ton for me.

699
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think. I think. You know this is these

700
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 4: are the type of markets where you got to stop

701
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 4: looking at things like, oh, you know, the whole percentage

702
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 4: is crazy. These numbers are are all bad or whatever,

703
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 4: and there's no expected value, like these are fun bets,

704
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 4: right these are these are bets supposed to that they

705
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 4: are supposed to be, you know, just give you some

706
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 4: some skin in the game for the season. And that's

707
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 4: why I think there's two decent long shots. I actually

708
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 4: think there's three decent long shots, but my two favorite

709
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 4: role him and as I spoke about Wolves earlier, he's

710
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 4: coming back. He like I said, he had a horrific

711
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 4: injury head injury, fractured skull last year, but he was

712
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 4: well on his way to like establishing himself as a

713
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 4: consistent fifteen to twenty goals score. I think that his

714
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 4: ceiling goes up with the managerial switch and the people

715
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 4: who are serving him the ball who we've we spoke about,

716
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 4: and I like Mikael Antonio, who was first I believe

717
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 4: last year in non penalty expected goals, fourth the year before.

718
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 4: So he's always in the right spot non penalty expected

719
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 4: goals for ninety he's always he's always like near the

720
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 4: six yard box. He's a very industrious forward. He scored

721
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 4: I believe, ten goals in each of the last two

722
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 4: seasons in twenty four and twenty six games, respectively. So

723
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 4: he's got to stay healthy, which is always a concern.

724
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 4: He's a little old. But west Ham under David Moyes,

725
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 4: who you know similar to Sean ditsch Is, his managerial

726
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 4: portfolio would suggest his teams will stay compact and play

727
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 4: defense first, defend it all costs. Last year they finished

728
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,399
Speaker 4: sixth with sixty two goals and fifth and expected goals

729
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 4: for so maybe there's like a managerial kind of renaissance

730
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 4: there for Moys who's reinvented himself. I think that he

731
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 4: if west Ham does play like that again, Antonio does

732
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 4: have a higher ceiling and he's just got to stay healthy.

733
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 4: And then I would also make note of I think

734
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 4: if you are chasing narratives and one of bet guys

735
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 4: that you want to root for Marcus Rashford at sixty

736
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 4: five to one, but Kyosaka, I think he's two hundred

737
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 4: to one for Arsenal. Like you said, if Obomba Yang

738
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 4: isn't scoring, who's going to score the goals for them?

739
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 4: Could be Soaka. I don't know, Bja, you're the Arsenal

740
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 4: fan here.

741
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 3: I mean if we could find a like to lead

742
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 3: the primarily and assist Bet, Socca would be my number

743
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 3: one choice by far. I mean most of his goals

744
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 3: usually come from outside the box and who knows. On

745
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 3: that note though, I'll do one more guy that I

746
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: kind of thought of as we're going along here, Tammy Abraham.

747
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: He's currently playing for Chelsea, but he's been thrown around

748
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: the transfer market to a bunch of different teams right now,

749
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 3: he might be going over to Italy to play with

750
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 3: Roma or Atlanta. But it just came out today as

751
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 3: we're taping this that Southampton, Arsenal and west Ham are

752
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 3: now all interested in him. So he's currently fifty to

753
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 3: one at Chelsea. Last year in limited appearances he had

754
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 3: a point five to four expectacle per ninety minute scoring rate,

755
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 3: which was the best on Chelsea, even though it was

756
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 3: only in twenty two appearances. So if he gets moved

757
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 3: over to west Ham or even Arsenal and can play

758
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 3: behind guys who can feed in the ball and get

759
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 3: actually some decent playing time, that his future of fifty

760
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 3: to one is going to shoot right down to twenty

761
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 3: to one. So if you want to just take a

762
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,720
Speaker 3: shot and see if he stays in the Premier League

763
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 3: and take him fifty one, I think that's worth it.

764
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: And then when he goes over Italy, you can just

765
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: light that ticket on fire.

766
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 4: That's what we're here to do. We're here to just

767
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 4: light all our bets on fire by the time the

768
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 4: season starts, all right, as that is a natural segue

769
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 4: bj because we ourselves will also move off of the

770
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 4: British Isle out well breaks it our way into the

771
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 4: European Union. Just let's just real quickly talk about some

772
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 4: futures in either La Liga Siria AH or the Bundesliga. Anthony,

773
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: you are kind of our Bundesliga expert. We start with there.

774
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 4: We'll start with you and there if there's anything there

775
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 4: you think is interesting, walk us through your future portfolio

776
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 4: for the other three big European league.

777
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: And my two favorite picks. One is in the Bundesliga.

778
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: One is in Syria. Atalanta to win Syria is now

779
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: six plus six fifty is the current number. They were

780
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,959
Speaker 1: thirteen to one at the Open, which which I grab

781
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 1: some of, but I like it still at six. I

782
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 1: think it's down to probably five to one when I

783
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 1: would probably stop, you know, playing at Alanta. But the

784
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: reality is interest in a fire sale. They just sold

785
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 1: Lukaku and Kimmi and they may be selling Theataro Martinez

786
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: Christian Ericston likely has still recovering from the health issue

787
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 1: we had, so Intern no longer looks like a real threat.

788
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: Ac Milan lost a bunch of players from you know,

789
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: they lost Donor Ruma, they charronglu is gone, so they've

790
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 1: lost pieces. You look at it who's left and it's

791
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 1: really just Uve. And obviously Juve is the best team,

792
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: but my numbers suggests Adamanta is not much worse. I've

793
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: got them a hair below Juventus. So Adelanta's rumored to

794
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 1: be in for Tammy Abraham, which would be nice. If not,

795
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 1: they're still going to run back as a Moriel Ilichiic again.

796
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: They're midfield pretty good with Remo Freuler and Martin Drone

797
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: who both had great Euros. And then they lose Christian

798
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: Romero defensively, but they replace him with mere DeMar Al,

799
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: who I think is just as good as a replacement,

800
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 1: a little bit of a different profile statistically, but really works.

801
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 1: And they sold Pierre Luigi Galini, who's their goalkeeper, but

802
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 1: he really didn't have a good year shot stopping anyway,

803
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure that's much of a loss. And then,

804
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: of course the fullbacks who were probably two of the

805
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 1: best players the whole Euros in Jacmela, who's going to

806
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: play on the right him and Hotebora will split time there,

807
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: and then on the left Robin Gohsens. So I love Adlanta.

808
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 1: Any xg or analytics person will tell you how much

809
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: they love Atlanta. And if they can just avoid a

810
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: slow start that they had last year, a little bit

811
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: of a Champions League hangover, then I think that they

812
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: can really make a run at this title. This is

813
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: their best shot they're ever going to have, and I

814
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: think that they're a good bet. And then in the

815
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 1: Bundesliga rby Leipzig is worse than Dortmund on paper, but

816
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: I'm not sure they should be. If you look at

817
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 1: the expected goals number last year, they were actually ahead

818
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: of Bayern Munich, and so there's a there's a market

819
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: you can bet winner without Bayern Munich. Leipzig is plus

820
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: two twenty five, which is essentially just to finish second.

821
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not crazy to think Byron could fall

822
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: off if Lewandowski, you know, fell apart or got hurt.

823
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 1: But Leipzig plus two twenty five. They replaced Julian Agulsman

824
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 1: with Jesse March, the American manager from Salzburg. They also,

825
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: you know, made some pretty good moves, adding Andre Silva

826
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 1: from Frankfurt to replace their striker issue. They didn't have

827
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: a striker last year. They're leading goal scorer had seven

828
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 1: goals in the Bundesliga. They had a bunch of guys

829
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 1: just magicking up some offense. So Leipzig, you know, they

830
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 1: don't have the attack in talent that Dortmund does. They

831
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 1: I don't even like their manager as much as I

832
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: like Dortmund's manager. But Dortmann has a lot of holes

833
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: in their defense in their midfield that Leipzig does not.

834
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: So I like Leipzig to finish second or winner without

835
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 1: Byron plus two twenty five is the number there.

836
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, that manager you don't like is actually an American,

837
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 4: Jesse March.

838
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: I don't not like him. I just like Marco Roe.

839
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 4: I mean it sounded like you didn't like him, so

840
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 4: I like him. He's great.

841
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,479
Speaker 1: That's a that's his He's no Marco Rose.

842
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:12,279
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843
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,800
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844
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,480
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845
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846
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847
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848
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849
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850
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00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 2: in this episode description to get started. Must be twenty

860
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 2: one or older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

861
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: West Virginia, and Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, or Pennsylvania. Please

862
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight hundred and five

863
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 2: two to forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada. One

864
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 2: eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania in West Virginia,

865
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 2: one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana one

866
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 2: eight hundred and two seven zero seven to one one

867
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 2: seven in Michigan one eight hundred and eight nine nine

868
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 2: seven eight nine in Tennessee one eight hundred bets off

869
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: in Iowa or one eight eight five three to two

870
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 2: thirty five hundred in Virginia. Betsink not available in Nevada.

871
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Now back to the.

872
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 4: Show, All right, BJ, we'll move out to you. What

873
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 4: other future bets do you like in either La Liga,

874
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 4: Syria or the Bundesliga.

875
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 3: So all round these really quick. I actually have four

876
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 3: different bets that I like. I have one future to

877
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 3: win the title and then three relegation bets, which are

878
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 3: always really fun. My first Real celciadad fifty to one

879
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 3: is one of my favorite long future bets out there.

880
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 3: You know, I was announced Leonel. He was confirmed going

881
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 3: to PSG this morning, which makes the La League title

882
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: race about as open as it's been in over a decade.

883
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 3: Real Madrid and Athletico Madrid both are due for a

884
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 3: lot of negative aggression. They allowed ten more expected goals

885
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 3: than they did actual goals last season, and Real associated

886
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 3: is just a really fun team. They have a lot

887
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 3: of fun players. Actually, last year they through the first

888
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 3: fourteen games they were a top of La League. They

889
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 3: had the best expected points, best expected goal differentially. They

890
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 3: just hit a bad run of farm and basically fell off,

891
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 3: finishing sixty two points, but they finished third and expected

892
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,919
Speaker 3: points to average one point sixty six expected goals per match,

893
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 3: which was third best in La Liga, and only allowed

894
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 3: one point zero two per match, which was fourth best.

895
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 3: They're young, exciting players. Our guy watched it in our

896
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 3: Euro coverage, Alexander Ishach. He's one of the best young

897
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 3: strikers in the world. He showed that at the Euros.

898
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 3: He scored sixteen goals last season. I love him twelve

899
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 3: to one for Golden Boot. Now that Messi's gone. Mikhael Orthobo,

900
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,959
Speaker 3: who had eleven goals and eight assists in La League

901
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 3: last season, was a key part of Spain's roster at

902
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 3: the Euros. Associated didn't really do anything significant the transfer markets.

903
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,240
Speaker 3: They'll be bringing back pretty much the exact same starting eleven.

904
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 3: But considering the fact they were really close to Real

905
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,800
Speaker 3: Madrid and Athletico Madrid on expected points and Barcelona is

906
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 3: obviously going to regress without Messi, it's about as open

907
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 3: as the or about as vulnerable as the top three

908
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 3: teams in La La have been in you know, pretty

909
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 3: much over a decade. So I think you're getting a

910
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 3: ton of value on real associate ad at fifty to one,

911
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 3: and their odds didn't even drop after the messy news

912
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: came out, so that was kind of shocking. But they're

913
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 3: my favorite outside of Premier League to win their respective league,

914
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 3: and then my three relegation bets LJA in La Liga.

915
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 3: It's very rare that a club that had the fewest

916
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 3: expected goals and allowed the most expected goals in their

917
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 3: league somehow stayed up, but that's exactly what LCH did.

918
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,320
Speaker 3: They only had thirty point three expected points in their campaign,

919
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 3: which so it's just shocking that they were able to

920
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 3: finish seventeenth their minus one twenty five to get relegated.

921
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 3: They didn't do anything in the transfer market. They play

922
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 3: a four to four to two formation, very defensive, but

923
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 3: they're not really that great in the dead last in

924
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 3: shots allowed inside the penalty area, shots inside the six

925
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 3: yard box, shot creating actions and passes leading to a shot.

926
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 3: So just a really, really bad team that's probably gonna

927
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 3: get relegated. They have the second lowest squad value in

928
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 3: Spain at thirty four point seven to one million, that

929
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 3: includes the three promoted teams, so anything minus one to

930
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 3: fifty are better for LJA to get relegated. That's good

931
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 3: enough for me, and then I have a long shot

932
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 3: in Laaliga to be get relegated. Valencia at plus six

933
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 3: fifty they were horrible last year and they're really starting

934
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 3: drop off after you know, a couple of years ago

935
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 3: they were contending for Champions League. They don't have any

936
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 3: reliable strikers in their four four to two formation. Maxi Gomez,

937
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 3: their number one striker, only put up a point two

938
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 3: too expect to go per nine unit scoring rate, which

939
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 3: is really bad. I just don't know where their shots

940
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 3: are going to come from this upcoming campaign. They had

941
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 3: the third fewest shots inside the six yard box and

942
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 3: then the penalty area, and so if you're playing a

943
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: very defensive formation, it's kind of hard to just switch

944
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 3: on offensively. But there's a lot going on off the

945
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 3: field for Valencia and it has a lot to do

946
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,759
Speaker 3: with their owner, Peter Limb. You can go ahead and

947
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 3: go to your own Google search and do your reading

948
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 3: about Peter Limb, but basically what he's done is put

949
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 3: them in a full on financial crisis and now they're

950
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 3: looking to offload players. They're looking to sell some of

951
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 3: their best ones at you know, discounted prices, so the

952
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 3: time the transfer window closes, this could be a completely

953
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 3: different Valencia team. And their defense was one of the

954
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 3: worst in the legal last year they allowed the most

955
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 3: shock creating actions, so I think that has a long

956
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 3: shot to get relegated. I think Valencia has some value

957
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 3: and then one more. This will be a quick one.

958
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 3: Salar and Neitana in Italy. They're one of the newly

959
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 3: promoted teams to be relegated minus one thirty seven. I

960
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 3: went and did some research and this is just shocking.

961
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 3: They had a negative fourteen point two nine expected goal

962
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 3: differential in Syria B, which is I mean, it's just

963
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,840
Speaker 3: almost impossible that they gained automatic promotion. I don't know

964
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:01,919
Speaker 3: how they're going to cope in Syria A. Their top

965
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 3: striker last season was Gennaro Tutina, who was on loan

966
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 3: from Napoli, scored thirteen of their forty six goals. Their

967
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: next closest goal scorer only at five. Tuteena is not

968
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 3: in the squad this year as loan has ended. He's

969
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: back at Napoli. They have the lowest total squad value

970
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 3: of anybody among the top five leagues at twenty three

971
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 3: point nine to three million according to Transfer Market, So

972
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,439
Speaker 3: anything minus won seventy five are better is good enough

973
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 3: for me. For the team from Salerno to get relegated.

974
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 4: Nothing offends BJ more than when the team has been.

975
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 3: Oh it's disgusting.

976
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 1: I agree with that.

977
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 4: Nothing.

978
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: I have a general disdain for Spain, but I think

979
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 1: that BJ has now convinced me to get an associodad

980
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: a fun team. Like I said, I don't like Spain.

981
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 1: I think it's a it's a bad league. And now

982
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: I feel validated because Real Madrid and Barcelona are fire

983
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 1: sailing people because they can't afford them, and ed Letti

984
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: is still the luckbox they've always been. So for me, uh,

985
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to get in on some Socio dot as well,

986
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 1: and I'm going to get it on some ESA as well,

987
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 1: because uh their body redemption fun times. And I honestly

988
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 1: Esak not scoring a goal or at the year at

989
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 1: the Euros, he's just you know, too much. Passing to

990
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: mL Forsburg is really what would really cost him. But yeah,

991
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 1: two nice, but he's awesome and he just signed a

992
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 1: five year extension. He's staying there, so uh, you know,

993
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 1: for him, it takes.

994
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 3: A lot to uh discuss a polite guy like me,

995
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: and you know, negative regression for guys who have a

996
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 3: negative expected goal differ rules when they shouldn't, it just

997
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 3: disgusts me.

998
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, come on in and and you know Rob Bjay's house.

999
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,359
Speaker 4: But if you uh, if you're expecting rules numbers are

1000
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 4: in the red, he's going to be really really exactly.

1001
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 4: I do think it's worth a shout that if we

1002
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 4: do think that La Liga is going to be as

1003
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 4: wide open as as it is because of the financial

1004
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 4: and political strife in with the big clubs. Villa Real

1005
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 4: who just won the Europa League, the Yellow Submarine one

1006
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 4: hundred to one. Interesting too that they do have a

1007
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 4: pretty strong starting eleven who Niamory. He seemed to have

1008
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 4: figured them them out last year. So I think at

1009
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 4: you one hundred to one, I do agree with you

1010
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 4: guys though real associate Dad is is definitely a lot

1011
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 4: of fun. We love betting on teams from the best

1012
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,359
Speaker 4: country anyway. You know, it's a it's such a such

1013
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 4: an interesting league off the field, like when you watch

1014
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 4: the games on the field, not as interesting, uh, and

1015
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 4: it shouldn't be noted that I'm pretty sure they'll be

1016
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 4: on ESPN Plus this season, so like you know, we

1017
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 4: could see more interests in in in these teams stateside,

1018
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 4: and and maybe more betting interests as well. And I

1019
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 4: also wanted to point out the point that bj made

1020
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 4: about Messi, Right, so he moves to PSG and so

1021
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 4: often as better is like the knee jerk reaction is okay,

1022
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 4: like how do I bet Barcelona or how do I

1023
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 4: fade Barcelona? But but the real the best way to

1024
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 4: do it is is to kind of look at like

1025
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:57,359
Speaker 4: the tangential markets and see if if they have been

1026
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 4: adjusted correctly. Right like you said with Rios, they didn't

1027
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 4: come down at all, Like their their odds stayed the same,

1028
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,719
Speaker 4: even though Barcelona's got worse. And that's where you can

1029
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:10,839
Speaker 4: kind of find value in those situations, like whether it's

1030
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 4: a big trade in the NHL or NBA or whatever.

1031
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 4: Like you want to kind of look in like on

1032
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 4: teams in like the radius rather than the team that

1033
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 4: is actually affected. So a little bit of betting one

1034
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 4: a one from our favorite accountant in Iowa. There, Uh,

1035
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,839
Speaker 4: let's move to the Champions League real quick too. I'll

1036
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 4: give you each one minute, Max to talk about your

1037
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 4: favorite Champions League future. Uh, I'm gonna start real quick

1038
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 4: because Anthony kind of laid out the the reasoning for

1039
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 4: Leipzig to win the Bundesliga. I think sixty six to

1040
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 4: one in the Champions League is a pretty good number.

1041
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 4: This is just a team that's their underlying metrics are

1042
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,760
Speaker 4: always off the charts. I know that the managerial switches

1043
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 4: a little concerning in some respects, but they were, like

1044
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 4: you said, first and expected points in the bundest League

1045
00:50:58,239 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 4: last year. They were the best defensive team in the

1046
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 4: Bundaegal last year. Hopefully that stuff kind of carries over.

1047
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 4: There was an old hockey coach, Ted Nolan. He used

1048
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 4: to say, offense is like weather. Defense is, so you

1049
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 4: never know what you can get, but defense, if you can,

1050
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 4: it's usually kind of predictable in that way. So I

1051
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 4: like like to say sixty six to one at bet

1052
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 4: MGM BJ, what about you.

1053
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 3: I'll go Dormann twenty five to one. There's no real

1054
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 3: data behind this, I guess. I mean, they obviously had

1055
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 3: good expected goals numbers last year, but it sounds kind

1056
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 3: of weird to say, but I think Dorman has a

1057
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 3: better chance of winning the Champions League than they do

1058
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga, and it's just because they're an incredibly inconsistent

1059
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,360
Speaker 3: team when it comes to the Bundesliga, and as anybody

1060
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 3: who watches the Bundesliga weekend week out, I mean, it's

1061
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 3: very clear that Dorman prioritizes the Champions League over anything,

1062
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 3: and they have the talent their squad and obviously one

1063
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 3: of the best strikers in the world in early Colland.

1064
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 3: And if you put this team up against any team

1065
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 3: in the world for just two games, they have the

1066
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 3: talent to beat them. I mean, there are forty five

1067
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 3: minutes away from beating Manchester City and going to the

1068
00:51:56,920 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 3: semi finals last year. So well, I I don't really

1069
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 3: like them to win the Bundeslig or anything like that.

1070
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 3: I actually do think they have a good chance at

1071
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 3: winning the Champions likegue at twenty five to one. Now,

1072
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 3: we'll see what happens when the draw comes out in

1073
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 3: August twenty sixth. You know, everything could change. That could

1074
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 3: be put in a group of death with two really

1075
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 3: good teams. But at the time of taping, I think

1076
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 3: Dormant has enough talent to win the Champions League at

1077
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 3: twenty five to one.

1078
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: Anthony, Yeah, I like Leipzig two at a loan to

1079
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 1: fifty to one. Leipzig fifty to one. I see out

1080
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 1: here do not solid enough defensively for me. Although I

1081
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 1: said I think Dortmand's is going to be a team,

1082
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 1: I'm staying away early, but I'm on late once Rosa

1083
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 1: gets time to get his magic going. But for me,

1084
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 1: I like England teams this year. I'm going to be

1085
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:39,719
Speaker 1: betting a lot of England in Europe. I think that

1086
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 1: the money, the money situation that's caused by the pandemic

1087
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 1: has led to a lot of money being shuffled towards

1088
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 1: the Premier League more than ever. And if you look

1089
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 1: at it, Uventiser in a bit of a bind, enter Fire, Sailing,

1090
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 1: Barsa and Madrid obviously have their issues. Everybody seems to

1091
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 1: be in trouble financially except for the big clubs in England.

1092
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: So for that reason, Man United twelve to one. Traditionally

1093
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 1: slow starters got knocked out in the group stage last

1094
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 1: year by Lepsig. Pretty embarrassing, but I think they're a

1095
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 1: team that by the spring, when Sancho gets some time

1096
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 1: to kind of figure it out and if they're in

1097
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 1: the range to make a Champions League run. With the

1098
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 1: league probably out of the picture, they're going to be

1099
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 1: really tough to beat. So United twelve to one a

1100
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 1: good number for me.

1101
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 4: That's ride look all right? So let's then go back

1102
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 4: to England. Let's talk match Week one your favorite bets.

1103
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:33,799
Speaker 4: We start Friday, August thirteenth at three pm Eastern with

1104
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 4: the kickoff between newly promoted Brentford and Arsenal. What on

1105
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 4: the board right now? Which team do you think or

1106
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 4: bet do you think? You would say? Is you know

1107
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 4: your favorite? The best value? However, and like I said,

1108
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:50,800
Speaker 4: we're are taping this on Tuesday morning, so these numbers

1109
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 4: may move. So what do you think, Pacha anything, anything

1110
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 4: pique your interest?

1111
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 3: Yeah? I like Newcastle west Ham over two and a

1112
00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 3: half goals on Sunday morning. The Newcastle's offensive numbers weren't

1113
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 3: that great last year, but they'd deal with a lot

1114
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 3: of injuries. Two of their best attacking players, Allen saint

1115
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 3: Maximum and Callum Wilson, were rolling on the field together

1116
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 3: for seventeen of their thirty eight matches. When those two

1117
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:13,919
Speaker 3: were on the field together, they averaged one point three

1118
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 3: expected goals per match. Without them on the field, they

1119
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,280
Speaker 3: only averaged one point zero four. They had a burst

1120
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 3: out star in the second half and Joe Willock, who

1121
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 3: spent the second half on season on loan from Arsenal.

1122
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 3: He's scoring eight goals and fourteen appearances. Newcastle just paid

1123
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,800
Speaker 3: Arsenal to make that move permanent, so he will continue

1124
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 3: to add to their attacking threat. Defensively, Newcastle was a mess.

1125
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 3: They allowed one point five eight expected goals for match,

1126
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:38,359
Speaker 3: second most shock creating actions, most touches in their own

1127
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 3: final third, and second most touches their own penalty area.

1128
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 3: So west Ham offensively should be able to do whatever

1129
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 3: they want in this one, and west Ham was actually

1130
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:48,319
Speaker 3: the best offensive team outside the top four, averaging one

1131
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 3: point five to nine expected goals per match. Defensively, they

1132
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 3: were not that great, even though they have a pretty

1133
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 3: good defensive midfield pairing in Declan Rice and Thomas Schuitchek.

1134
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:57,919
Speaker 3: They allowed one point three to one expected goals per match,

1135
00:54:57,920 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 3: which was middle of the pack in the Premier League.

1136
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 3: They also the fifth most touches in their own final

1137
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 3: third and third most carries into the final third. Finally,

1138
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 3: sixty three percent of west Ham matches went over two

1139
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 3: and a half goals last season. My projections have two

1140
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 3: point nine to nine goals projected for this game, which

1141
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:16,839
Speaker 3: equates to one minus one twenty eight odds on over

1142
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:18,479
Speaker 3: two and a half goals. So at the current ods

1143
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 3: of minus one oh five, it gives me about four

1144
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 3: point nine to two percent value on over two and

1145
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 3: a half goals anything minus one twelve or better. Because

1146
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 3: I love math.

1147
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 4: Maths, he loves his meths. I like leads. They're five

1148
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 4: to one against Man Trust United. We do tend to

1149
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 4: see underdogs perform better than normal in week one, and

1150
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 4: I think that your leads are an outlier, right, Like

1151
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:47,880
Speaker 4: you have to gain plan for a team that just plays,

1152
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:51,399
Speaker 4: you know, basically cocaine ball, like they are all over

1153
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:56,479
Speaker 4: the place. They have Mark Marcelo Bielsa is in both

1154
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 4: like a genius and a mad man. He kind of

1155
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 4: straddles that fine nine. He gets his teams just to

1156
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 4: run and run and run, and you know they might

1157
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 4: burn out towards the end of the year. But this

1158
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 4: is week one, so playing them in the first match

1159
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 4: of a season is I think just a terrible draw

1160
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 4: for anyone, and for Man United, especially because they have

1161
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 4: guys who just played a lot of soccer in the Euros.

1162
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 4: So and like you know, we tend to see these

1163
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:23,799
Speaker 4: these teams that are title favorites kind of try to

1164
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 4: peak at the right times and manage the kind of

1165
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 4: manage their way through the first few matches rather than

1166
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 4: go out and try to win them on the And

1167
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 4: when you flip it to the other side, teams like

1168
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,959
Speaker 4: Leads or something, or in that kind of mid range,

1169
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,840
Speaker 4: or teams towards the bottom or project towards the bottom,

1170
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 4: they really try to exploit that, right, So I think

1171
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 4: Leads plus four to fifty to one is just a

1172
00:56:47,520 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 4: great value bet for me. Like you're talking about a team,

1173
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:52,359
Speaker 4: like I said, that is just going to come out

1174
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 4: and be a buzz off for ninety minutes, and when

1175
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 4: it's your first match of the season, like it's really

1176
00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:00,120
Speaker 4: hard to kind of expect that or play against it.

1177
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 3: So I think that I was gonna say, yeah, money

1178
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:04,440
Speaker 3: line is the bet there, because either Leads is either

1179
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 3: gonna win this match or they're gonna lose it six

1180
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:07,320
Speaker 3: to one. So there's gonna be no in between.

1181
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 4: You're gonna want to bet if you want to bet

1182
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 4: Man United in that match, you might as well go

1183
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 4: chase like a minus two or something.

1184
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 3: Right, and you know, I mean, I'll all point also

1185
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 3: point out that Manchester United did lose to Crystal Palace

1186
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 3: at home to open up last year, so just just

1187
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 3: saying it can happen.

1188
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, as Anthony said, they tend to start slow, and

1189
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 4: if they do lose this match, the old a gunner, slow,

1190
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:32,440
Speaker 4: short discourse, we'll start again. And as you are a

1191
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:36,120
Speaker 4: soccer fan, you know that there's nothing more tiring than that, Anthony,

1192
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 4: What about you?

1193
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:40,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree on leads. I'll be on leads. Uh.

1194
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:42,920
Speaker 1: Probably gonna wait a little bit because I think we

1195
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 1: might see some Many United Steam coming. Uh, so I'm

1196
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 1: gonna be looking to play leads later. But the player

1197
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 1: I like under two and a half Everton in Southampton.

1198
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 1: Southampton not gonna have Armstrong in the team. Most likely

1199
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: they just signed. They haven't even finished signing him yet.

1200
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 1: The game is coming up this week and so it

1201
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 1: seems unlikely he'd be in the team. Word Prouse unlikely

1202
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 1: to play and generally speaking, I'm just not a fan

1203
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: of this Southampton attack against Everton. I think this game

1204
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 1: has zero zero one to one written all over it.

1205
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 1: Maybe one nil. Everton love to win one nil against

1206
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: mid table sides last year, so I just don't see

1207
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 1: a lot of goals in this game. Hopefully we don't

1208
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 1: get the goal barrage we got to start last season.

1209
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 1: But that's the game for me. I like the under

1210
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 1: there and then yes, I also like leads.

1211
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 4: There you have it. Hopefully, you know we kind of

1212
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 4: satisfied your soccer betting needs in this podcast. We talked

1213
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 4: about everything and like I said at the top, because

1214
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 4: we are fighting for airtime against but he missliked the

1215
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 4: NFL and NBA, etc. If you do like this podcast,

1216
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 4: if you want more soccer coverage off platform, whether it's

1217
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 4: video or podcasts, make sure you tweet at our beloved leader,

1218
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 4: Chad Millman, our senior producer, Matt Mitchell.

1219
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 1: This is what I always tell people when I'm selling

1220
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: them soccer is that football on the East Coast starts

1221
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 1: at one o'clock. Watch sports for like five hours before that.

1222
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 1: If you get up and watch the Premier League on

1223
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:07,720
Speaker 1: NBC Sports. The Bundesliga's on ESPN Plus, while League is

1224
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 1: on ESPN Plus. Sirih A is on Paramount, So that's

1225
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 1: where you can find all the best European.

1226
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:15,600
Speaker 3: Leagues also say to that point, as a former accountant

1227
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 3: who just sat in a cubicle doing nothing, there's nothing

1228
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 3: better than having a game in the middle of the

1229
00:59:20,240 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 3: afternoon to bet on and follow. And that's how soccer

1230
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 3: provides you. So if you're like me and you either

1231
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 3: you're in a cubicle right now or it used to be,

1232
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 3: there's nothing better than a little afternoon sports on TV.

1233
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's the self or soccer.

1234
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 4: And it truly is like we you know, to give

1235
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:36,480
Speaker 4: you a peek behind the curtain, like we really did

1236
00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:39,200
Speaker 4: see when the pandemic started to end and the Bundesliga

1237
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 4: came back last May and May twenty twenty, we did

1238
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 4: see so much interest in soccer. I think a lot

1239
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 4: of that is people working from home and stuff, and

1240
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 4: it is it is a great sport to wake up

1241
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 4: cupa Joe, lose money on teams like Brighton and then

1242
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 4: you get to feel bad for yourself from nine am

1243
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 4: seven thirty am depending on where you are, until what

1244
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 4: ten pm when when Hawaii comes on and you're trying

1245
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 4: to win back all that money. In college football, like

1246
01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:08,240
Speaker 4: it's a it is a beautiful thing. It doesn't take

1247
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 4: too much to kind of figure out like good betting practices, right,

1248
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 4: like you want to get to be acquainted with XG

1249
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:18,600
Speaker 4: and stuff like that, and uh, it is. It is

1250
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 4: a beautiful sport. It is the beautiful game. So we'll

1251
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:26,640
Speaker 4: leave it at that and we'll return to your normal

1252
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:30,480
Speaker 4: programming here and over the next few weeks as we

1253
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 4: gear up for the American football season, you'll hear all

1254
01:00:33,120 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 4: about Giovanni, Bernard Carston, Palmers he's still in the NFL,

1255
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 4: I don't know, and those guys as we get you

1256
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 4: geared up for the NFL season. So for BJ, for Anthony,

1257
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:48,560
Speaker 4: I'm Michael. Thank you for listening to the Action Networks

1258
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 4: English Premier League Plus Betting Preview