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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game that Ryan grud Uski.

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We are thirty six days until the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five elections. I know, originally I said today was

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Speaker 1: going to be all about Virginia, but a number of

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Speaker 1: people have reached out to me and they want to

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Speaker 1: talk about New Jersey. A lot of polls have come

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Speaker 1: out that made this raise much more interesting. And now

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Speaker 1: I'm a Northeasterner, so I'm kind of really interested in Jersey,

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Speaker 1: so I couldn't wait to do it as well. We

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Speaker 1: will do a deep dive on Virginia next Monday. I

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Speaker 1: already have a guest laid out who knows all things

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Speaker 1: Virginia data, and they will have a lot of early votes,

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Speaker 1: will have a lot to decipher and go through. I

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Speaker 1: think it'll be very, very exciting. I'm also going to

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Speaker 1: do an episode on Pennsylvania because they have an important

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Speaker 1: election which is completely going under the radar, which everyone

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Speaker 1: should be talking about or at least know a little

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Speaker 1: bit about. All Right, before we get into the Garden State,

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Speaker 1: here are some other numbers that I think you all

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Speaker 1: should know and we need to address. First across the

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Speaker 1: pond in the UK, the polling for an ipsis. They

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Speaker 1: did a poll on the Prime Minister and is appro

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Speaker 1: rating Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He is a member of

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Speaker 1: the Labor Party, the British version of the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 2: They found that he has.

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Speaker 1: A thirteen percent appro rating a seventy nine percent unfavorable,

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Speaker 1: writing now, not only is this a bad number, it

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Speaker 1: is the worst number of any prime minister ever polled

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Speaker 1: since IPSEY started in nineteen eighty. That includes Liz Trust,

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Speaker 1: the former Tory Conservative Prime minister who lasted only forty

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Speaker 1: nine days in the job. This is obviously not a

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Speaker 1: great place to be and Starmer is reacting by writing

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Speaker 1: an op ed in The Telegraph, which is a pretty

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Speaker 1: prominent British paper, talking about how he's going to issue

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Speaker 1: issue digital ID cards to sit there and crackdown on

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Speaker 1: illegal immigrants taking British shops. He's also talked about the

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Speaker 1: fact that they need to crack down on legal immigration.

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Speaker 1: He knows and immigration is the number one issue for

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Speaker 1: British voters and there's a direct relation to immigration and

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Speaker 1: the cost of living, immigration and the economy, and the

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Speaker 1: economy is the bad spot. They're calling the UK the

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Speaker 1: sick man of the g seven, that it is doing

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Speaker 1: horrifically bad in the economy, that the cost of living,

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Speaker 1: the cost of owning a home is enormously high, and

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Speaker 1: the British public are outraged and they are looking for

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Speaker 1: alternatives to the traditional Tory and Labor Party, you know,

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Speaker 1: chance parties, that they're not looking for the same parties

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Speaker 1: they've always elected, dating back hundreds of years. In the

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Speaker 1: case of the Tories, A Sunday Times which is also

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Speaker 1: another British paper, poll predicts that if the election we're

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Speaker 1: held today, Reform UK, led by Nigel Faraj, is expected

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Speaker 1: to win the election with an astounding three hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy three seats, while the Labor Party would come in

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Speaker 1: second with just ninety seats and the Tories would have

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Speaker 1: just forty. They would be a minority party. Now imagine

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Speaker 1: had Donald Trump ran under the America Party or a

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Speaker 1: third party or whatnot and Europe and in just you know,

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Speaker 1: before he even had you know, first midterm elections or

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Speaker 1: whatever the case may be in the American version or

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Speaker 1: his second election, that the Republicans would be a minority

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Speaker 1: party and the Democrats would be shellacked and losing two

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Speaker 1: thirds of their support that's what's happening in the UK.

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Speaker 1: All Over most of Western Europe we're seeing leaders scramble

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Speaker 1: with declining support and increasing political instability. Leaders in Germany, France,

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Speaker 1: the UK and Spain are all suffering suffering from declining

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Speaker 1: support and nationalist party populist parties are surging across the board.

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Speaker 1: Now the elections in most of Western Europe aren't happening.

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Speaker 1: There is one election in late October in the Netherlands,

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Speaker 1: but that's that's it's interesting and I'm going to talk

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Speaker 1: about it, but it's not the most consequential to the

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Speaker 1: fairly small cuntry. And also, the Netherlands has like two

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Speaker 1: hundred political parties, so everyone gets a seat and they

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Speaker 1: all squabble about, you know, creating political unions.

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Speaker 2: It's it's messy.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it takes months for the Netherlands to create a

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Speaker 1: government while everyone tries to find out who's alliance they're on.

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Speaker 1: But it's the Netherlands, so no one really notices anyway.

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Speaker 1: Most Western countries, major Western countries do not have an

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Speaker 1: election until twenty twenty seven. There's a few smaller countries

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Speaker 1: like Denmark and Sweden and Hungary and Slovenia, that have elections,

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Speaker 1: but we're talking the UK, France, Italy, Germany, these big countries, Spain,

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Speaker 1: they don't have elections for quite some time. And what

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Speaker 1: these European leaders in Germany and in France with Manuel

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Speaker 1: Macron and in the UK with Starmar are hoping for

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Speaker 1: is that they somehow improve the economy some and deal

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Speaker 1: with at least illegal immigration in some capacity, maybe deport

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Speaker 1: some criminals. So that way these populous parties like like

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Speaker 1: Marine Lapenn's national Rally, like the AfD in Germany, like

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Speaker 1: Box in Spain, taper off support voters come back to

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Speaker 1: the center and support these traditional left right parties.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if some of these parties will be

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Speaker 1: able to keep the government going before they can collapse.

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Speaker 1: We will see and I will tell you about it.

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Speaker 1: But this is what's brewing in Europe. It is not

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Speaker 1: impossible that we close our eyes wake up at twenty

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Speaker 1: nine and most of Western Europe is governed by a

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Speaker 1: national populist party and president or prime minister. It is

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Speaker 1: very interesting how things are unfolding. Now back to the

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Speaker 1: United States, specifically three states. Let's talk about Missouri, the

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Speaker 1: show me state. This story flew completely under the radar

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Speaker 1: Republican Governor Mike Keho SIGNDI bill creating new Congression lines

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Speaker 1: in Missouri. It will turn the fifth Congressional District, which

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Speaker 1: is currently represented by a Manual Kleaver who's held the

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Speaker 1: seat for twenty years. He's a Democrat, into a Republican district.

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Speaker 1: Under the current lines, the district voted for Kamala Harris

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Speaker 1: by a sixty one to thirty seven margin. This new

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Speaker 1: map splits the city of Kansas City into three different

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Speaker 1: districts and turns the district the fifth Congressional District, which

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Speaker 1: completely encompasses Kansas City right now from Aharis plus twenty

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Speaker 1: three seat to a Trump plus eighteen seat. It will

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Speaker 1: likely guarantee that a Republican will win the seat, adding

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Speaker 1: to the Republican delegation next year. The map is likely

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Speaker 1: to end up in some lawsuits, especially given what's going

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Speaker 1: on right now in Louisiana and Alabama with their lawsuits.

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Speaker 1: If the Supreme Court decides to strike down or radically

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Speaker 1: reform Section two of the Voting Rights Act, which protects

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Speaker 1: minority majority districts throughout the country. Though not white majority

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Speaker 1: districts in places that they are a minority, like in California.

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Speaker 1: But if they strike or modify section two of the VRA,

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Speaker 1: I think that this map will be okay. I think

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Speaker 1: this map will stay. I think they will gain this

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Speaker 1: extra seat and Republicans will have one more seat going

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Speaker 1: into the midterms. Go to another state we're talking about redistricting,

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Speaker 1: which is Maryland.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: When Texas redistricted, a lot of Democratic governors started puffing

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Speaker 1: their chests and saying they were going to do something,

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Speaker 1: and most of them didn't because most of them don't

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Speaker 1: have the power do anything. Well, one of those who

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Speaker 1: did have the power to do something and could have

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Speaker 1: is the Democratic governor of Maryland named Wes Moore. Maryland

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Speaker 1: has one Republican Congression congressional district and he was promising

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Speaker 1: to redistrict that into oblivion and make it a Democratic seat.

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Speaker 1: He has since backed away from that comment and he's

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Speaker 1: giving the the he's giving the smoke.

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Speaker 2: Signals that will not happen.

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Speaker 1: Why will it not happen, Well, it does anything to

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Speaker 1: do with him. It has to be with the former

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Speaker 1: governor Larry Hogan. It was a Republican of Maryland. Now,

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Speaker 1: for the true blue Republican listeners of the show, you

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Speaker 1: may have said Larry Hogan was a rhino, Larry Hogan

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Speaker 1: was terrible. Larry Hogan, you know, didn't like Trump, which

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Speaker 1: is true, he didn't like Trump. However, what Larry Hogan

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Speaker 1: did do which many blue state Republican governors do not do,

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Speaker 1: is he actually appointed Republicans to the Supreme Court of Maryland,

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Speaker 1: and Maryland Supreme Court is five to Republican. What Democrats,

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Speaker 1: including Wes Moore, are afraid of is not only will

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Speaker 1: a new map be struck down by the Republican majority

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court appointed by Larry Hogan, is that they will

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Speaker 1: strike down the current map as well, redraw it and

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Speaker 1: give Republicans not one seat but two and possibly make

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Speaker 1: a third swing seat in the state. That would be

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Speaker 1: devastating to Republicans. That would be deructive to Wes Moore.

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Speaker 1: He knows it, he knows he could not run for

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Speaker 1: He's saying he's not running for president, but in case

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Speaker 1: he changes his mind, as politicians are known.

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Speaker 2: To do that.

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Speaker 1: If he went to a debate stage and Gavin Newsom

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Speaker 1: said I gained Ford Democratic seats, you lost us one

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Speaker 1: or two seats. That would be an absolute ko knockout

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Speaker 1: with Democratic activists. So it doesn't look like Democrats can

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Speaker 1: count on Maryland to add to their delegation in redistricting

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Speaker 1: so far. Maybe he'll change his mind, but it looks

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Speaker 1: like it's he's trying to preempt a move by the

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Speaker 1: Republican Supreme Court in the state. Okay, now here's for

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Speaker 1: the main show for the Garden State. For New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: Jack Chiarelli is continuing to have more news break in

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Speaker 1: his favor. He received the endorsement of a Democratic mayor

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Speaker 1: named James Dodd of Dover, New Jersey. Now, Dover is

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Speaker 1: not a Republican town. It voted for Harris by fifty

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Speaker 1: six percent and by for Biden in twenty twenty by

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Speaker 1: sixty seven percent. This is the This isn't the first

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Speaker 1: time that a Democrat mayor has endorsed Chittarelli. The mayor

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Speaker 1: of Garfield, New Jersey endorsement. But Garfield is a place

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Speaker 1: that was very Democratic back in twenty twelve and has

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Speaker 1: moved to the right in every subsequent election, and in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four Trump won it, So it makes sense

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Speaker 1: that he's trying to align with his voters in a

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Speaker 1: town that is increasingly becoming a Republican. That is not

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Speaker 1: the case with Dover.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: The biggest, the big possibility, the biggest possibility for Chitdarelli

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Speaker 1: around getting Democratic mayor support is a meeting he allegedly

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Speaker 1: had two weeks ago with a man named Nicholas Sacho.

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Speaker 1: Saco has been an elected official from Northern Bergen in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Northern New Jersey, right outside of New York

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Speaker 1: City for since nineteen eighty five, since before I was born.

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Speaker 2: He's been an elected official.

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Speaker 1: He and his team had a meeting with Jack Chitdarelli

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Speaker 1: about an endorsement. Now he's denying this. He's saying he's

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Speaker 1: a Democrat, but he is not endorsing the Demomocrat Mickey Cheryl.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of sitting there and staying out of it.

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Speaker 2: He is not.

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Speaker 1: In northern New Jersey, there is a Democrat machine. They

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Speaker 1: go to the projects, they go to the apartment builities,

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Speaker 1: they drag people have to go vote. They have a

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Speaker 1: complete operation. Without the local operation support, it absolutely hurts

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Speaker 1: the Democrats. His public team is saying that he has

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Speaker 1: not committed to voting for a supporting for a Republican

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Speaker 1: and he is a Democrat and he's loyal to his party,

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Speaker 1: but he is not endorsing Cheryl. And the meeting definitely happened,

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Speaker 1: because there's enough sources to sit there in say that

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Speaker 1: the meeting happened. It's not so much that he loves

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Speaker 1: Chitdarelli or is becoming Republican. He is having a feud

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Speaker 1: with another mayor or, the Union City, New Jersey mayor,

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Speaker 1: who loves Mickey Cheryl. So, oh, Mikey Cheryl. So that

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Speaker 1: is really where it is. It's just about, you know,

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Speaker 1: Democrat on Democrat violence. It's really about who hates who,

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Speaker 1: who's backing who, And that's really what's causing a lot

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Speaker 1: of cast in the Democratic Party. A lot of inner

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Speaker 1: city Democrats do not like the Democratic nominee. They wanted

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Speaker 1: a minority, they wanted somebody else, they wanted a man.

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Speaker 1: A lot of cases. Mikey Sheryl comes from a very

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Speaker 1: very wealthy white area of New Jersey and Montclair. She

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Speaker 1: does not represent their interests, she does not speak their language.

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Speaker 1: And it shows. And a lot of these polls that

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Speaker 1: are showing a jump ball raise are because a lot

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Speaker 1: of minorities, a lot of Kamala Harris, voters are not

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Speaker 1: committed to supporting her. I think that that really speaks

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Speaker 1: to a bigger problem the Democrats are having right now

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Speaker 1: in the state and nationwide. Republicans so far in this

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Speaker 1: election for governor are doing a better job at returning

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Speaker 1: ballots than Democrats are. As of Monday, September twenty ninth,

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Speaker 1: four percent of all Republicans who have requested a mail

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Speaker 1: in ballad have returned them. That's better than the three

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Speaker 1: zero point five percent for Democrats. Independents like way behind

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Speaker 1: at one point eight. The difference is now. This is good,

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Speaker 1: this is not cause for great celebration because Democrats have

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Speaker 1: way more ballots out there for mail in voters. Democrats

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Speaker 1: are still very comfortable mail in voters. Republicans have gotten

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Speaker 1: more comfortable, but they are not nearly where the Democrats are.

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Speaker 1: Fifty eight percent of all mail in ballid applications are

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Speaker 1: from Democrats, but they have to return them. Returning your

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Speaker 1: ballid is more important than just receiving it, so Republicans

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Speaker 1: are returning it at a higher rate. That's a great

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Speaker 1: news for the Republican candidate. However, Democrats are still.

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Speaker 2: Going to win the mail in ballot vote. It's not

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Speaker 2: a question.

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Speaker 1: It's just a matter of is there a chance that

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Speaker 1: five or six or seven or eight percent or ten

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Speaker 1: percent or twelve percent do not return their ballot? They

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Speaker 1: just they forget gets lost in the mail, They go

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Speaker 1: on vacation, they don't think about it. Last number before

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Speaker 1: I get into a conversation with about New Jersey, is

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Speaker 1: a new poll out.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Remember last week we had the Emerson Pole. We had

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Speaker 1: an internal poll showing Chitdarelli either tied or ahead. A

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Speaker 1: new poll has come out from the conservative website Save Jersey,

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Speaker 1: finding Cheryl with a two point lead over Republican Chitarelli,

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Speaker 1: basically the margin of error. The poll was connected by

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Speaker 1: a firm named Valcore. I don't know that firm particularly well.

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Speaker 1: I've never heard of it before. Not saying it's a

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Speaker 1: bad one, I'm just not familiar with it. Betty Markets

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Speaker 1: still gives Cheryl a seventy percent chance on winning this election.

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Speaker 1: She's still the odds on favorite, but trends are moving

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Speaker 1: away from her and Democrats and it's becoming obvious. And

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Speaker 1: Chitarelli has momentum, which is what you want more than

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Speaker 1: anything before an election. Is momentum. People feel like you

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Speaker 1: can win. Polls aren't everything, but sometimes they become self

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Speaker 1: fulfilling prophecies. I want to do another Jersey election for

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Speaker 1: a perfect image of this. In twenty thirteen, Chris Christy

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Speaker 1: won in a huge landslide against a woman named Barbara Bono.

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Speaker 1: I didn't even have to look up her name. This

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Speaker 1: is how sick my brain is that I remember the

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Speaker 1: Demo losing Democratic campaign from a decade ago. But she

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Speaker 1: went by a huge margin. But the voter turnout was extremely,

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Speaker 1: extremely low because Poles had sat there and said it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a blowout, don't even worry about voting

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Speaker 1: to vote, and Democrats didn't go out and vote, so

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Speaker 1: it helped with Christy's overall number. When Poles say this

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Speaker 1: is a tight election, it does ignite the more passionate

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Speaker 1: group to sit there and show up. Which is what

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Speaker 1: helped Donald Trump in twenty twenty four is they said

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Speaker 1: anybody can win, and so you know, somebody who usually

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Speaker 1: could sit there and sleep on the couch is going

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Speaker 1: to sit there and show up and turn out and

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Speaker 1: vote because he said that his guy can win, even

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Speaker 1: in a state that's not super red, even if a

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Speaker 1: state that's a purple or a blue state, they were like,

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Speaker 1: could we could have a complete upset. The opportunities abound.

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Speaker 1: That's what's happening in these polls. So with me this

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Speaker 1: week is someone who I'm very interested. He knows all

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Speaker 1: things New Jersey, the land that gave us John bon Jovi,

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Speaker 1: Whitney Houston, and Tony Soprano. He is coming up next.

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Speaker 1: Matt Rooney is the host of the Matt Rooney Show

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Speaker 1: and founder of Save Jersey dot Com. Matt, thanks for

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Speaker 1: being here.

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Speaker 3: Appreciate you having me. Ryan, good to talk to you.

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Speaker 1: Now, Matt, like I feel like I started reading you

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Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen with Christie's reelect Have you been writing

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Speaker 1: for that long? Am I like going crazy?

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Speaker 3: It's worse than that. Actually, two thousand and eight, I

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Speaker 3: was a law student at Rutgers University, and naturally I

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Speaker 3: didn't want to hang out with my comedy classmates twenty

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Speaker 3: four to seven. As much as I love some of them,

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Speaker 3: they're nice people, but their ideas are out in left field.

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Speaker 3: So instead of hitting the books as I probably should have,

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Speaker 3: I started Save Jersey dot com partially. And you could

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Speaker 3: appreciate this, Ryan as event. It was Catharta to write

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Speaker 3: about all the garbage going on in my home state.

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Speaker 3: But lo and behold, people started reading it and we've

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Speaker 3: been around ever since.

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Speaker 1: Do you know this is how weird my brain works.

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Speaker 1: I remember you venting in twenty thirteen that Christy did

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Speaker 1: not do enough to support candidates running for the state

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Speaker 1: legislature and there was only one pick up in the

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Speaker 1: whole state legislature that year. Christie had that blowout reelect.

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Speaker 1: But I remember you venting, and I was really learning.

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Speaker 1: I mean I was twenty thirteen, it was a while ago.

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Speaker 1: I was in my early twenties, but I was really

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Speaker 1: like learning about different ways that how blue state Republican

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Speaker 1: governors sometimes work with the legislatures, like Larry Hogan and

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Speaker 1: the Republican governor of Vermont does, and then how some

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Speaker 1: make it about themselves and so like Schwarzenegger or Christy.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, I learned that education from Save Jersey. That's

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Speaker 1: how long I have been reading that website. So you

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Speaker 1: guys have a poll out today we do breaking news.

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Speaker 2: What does the poll say about the race for governor?

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Speaker 3: The poll says that Jack can win, which you, being

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Speaker 3: someone that follows blue state Republican politics very closely is

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Speaker 3: very much the first obstacle we have to overcome in

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Speaker 3: a place like Jersey if we ever want to be successful.

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Speaker 3: People just don't believe they can do it, that it's

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Speaker 3: worth it. It's easier to move to Florida, South Carolina

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Speaker 3: wherever else where. We all agree the weather is better,

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Speaker 3: but the pizza, with all due respect, tastes like ketchup

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Speaker 3: on a cracker, So we'd prefer to stay in the

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Speaker 3: pizza belt up here. So what this poll really tells us,

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Speaker 3: Ryan is that Jack is there. Mikey Cheryl's at forty

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Speaker 3: seven percent with a universe of almost thirteen hundred likely voters.

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Speaker 3: Jack's at forty five percent. It very much felt when

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Speaker 3: I was looking at this as if I was evaluating

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Speaker 3: a Trump Clinton twenty sixteen pole. You have almost, in

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Speaker 3: some ways kind of the de facto incumbent Cheryl, because

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Speaker 3: we're talking about a Democrat whose state party has an

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Speaker 3: eight hundred and fifty thousand register and advantage statewide but

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Speaker 3: unable to get the fifty percent, and Jack right there

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Speaker 3: and winning just about every issue. If you look at

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Speaker 3: the top lines, whether it be crime, utility, bill increases,

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Speaker 3: no one is buying what Mikey Cheryl is selling. And

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Speaker 3: that was before the Naval Academy scandal broke. This poll

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Speaker 3: came out of the field about twenty four hours before

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Speaker 3: we learned all of that. So, if you're going to

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Speaker 3: take one thing away from this survey we conducted, it's that, yeah,

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Speaker 3: your vote, your vote matters in New Jersey this year,

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Speaker 3: we could actually win.

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Speaker 1: And it's the third poll almost consecutive to say it's

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Speaker 1: a jump ball race. There was another poll by a

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Speaker 1: nonprofit and I said, I'm not I'm not a polling truther,

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Speaker 1: but if I don't know the polling institution, I make

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Speaker 1: a claim I don't know this institution doing this poll.

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Speaker 1: And they texted me there, they tweeted me and they

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Speaker 1: were like, we'll show you our cross ups well she

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Speaker 1: or methodology, and I said, okay, my dms are open,

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Speaker 1: sent them to me. Never got them, like so, still

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Speaker 1: going to be a polling truth about that one. But

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Speaker 1: among Emerson among the internals that Chitarelly put out, which

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Speaker 1: was done by a very very well respected within New

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Speaker 1: Jersey polster, and this poll I don't know this polster

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Speaker 1: by the way, that that did your poll but I'm

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Speaker 1: going to trust you because you know you've been in

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Speaker 1: this for a while. What the thing that is interesting

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Speaker 1: about those two of those three poles I didn't read

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Speaker 1: of the crossteps of your pol just for the top lines,

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Speaker 1: was that Chitterrelly which separates those two polls from all others.

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Speaker 1: Chitarelly is dominating among independence. Is that the same in

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Speaker 1: your poll?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's up with independence. But you know, arguably even

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Speaker 3: more significantly, the thing that made me nearly fall out

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Speaker 3: of my chair, He's got about thirty percent of the

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Speaker 3: urban vote, which, for those of you that fall in

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Speaker 3: New Jersey or if you're just tuning in for the

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Speaker 3: first time, part of the reason why New Jersey has

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Speaker 3: been tough to flip traditionally is that I ninety five corridor,

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Speaker 3: the part you see on the intro to the Sopranos.

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Speaker 3: The rest of the state's acting quite lush and green.

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Speaker 3: Ryan'll backed me up on this, but that's really what

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Speaker 3: it is, you know, Elizabeth Patterson Hudson and Essex Towny.

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Speaker 3: But Trump really broke into that Democrat blue firewall last year.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he won and Jane nine. That's the congressional

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Speaker 3: district that has Patterson at the heart of it. So early.

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Speaker 3: I would love I would have loved.

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Speaker 1: To been a fly on the wall in New Jersey

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Speaker 1: Democratic circles when that when Nelly posed district, I mean

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Speaker 1: she barely won, but they drew that to be a

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Speaker 1: super safe, impossible to win Democrats seat, and Trump won

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Speaker 1: it by two points. I would have just loved to

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Speaker 1: see what they look like when that happened.

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Speaker 3: It did not go according to plan, that's the nice

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Speaker 3: way to put it right. And we know that she's

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Speaker 3: an empty suit. She's out there last week taking credit

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Speaker 3: for votes she didn't even take. She was touring MetLife

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Speaker 3: Stadium talking about all the funds that are going to

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Speaker 3: be brought in for security for the World Cup next year.

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Speaker 3: She voted against the bill. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: buyers regret right now across the board in Democrat politics

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Speaker 3: because Nelly's week, they're very worried about that last year.

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Speaker 3: The NRCC is already running digital ads in that district.

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Speaker 3: And then, of course in the gubernatorial race, Mikey Cheryl

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Speaker 3: I used to call her Kamala of the East Coast.

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Speaker 3: I'm starting to think it is unfair to Kamala because

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Speaker 3: Kamala at least occasionally, I don't know, maybe borrow some

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Speaker 3: of the vitamins they used to inject into Biden and

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Speaker 3: sounds halfway coherent. Cheryl's not there in a good day.

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Speaker 1: And Trump one Passic County, which is extremely important, which

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Speaker 1: has a heavy Latino population as well, and we saw

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Speaker 1: that in a number of pockets. Now, I had a

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Speaker 1: few quick questions to ask you, So what is the

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Speaker 1: first Gitterally ran in twenty twenty one and did surprisingly well.

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Speaker 1: I was in a doing a city council race in

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Speaker 1: New York which we won, and they said, they said

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Speaker 1: Chittarelly is tied. And it was like eleven PM, and

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Speaker 1: I go, no, there's no way. I wasn't even looking

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Speaker 1: at the jersey, was like, oh, that can't be. And

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Speaker 1: I look at it, go holy cow. What is he

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Speaker 1: doing differently this time that is better? Is it just

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Speaker 1: that he's not against an incumbent or is there is

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Speaker 1: he doing something differently that is more that it is

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Speaker 1: working his benefit?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think some of it, as much as I

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Speaker 3: want to give him credit, is doing some things better.

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Speaker 3: Some of it's just environmental. At this point, you've had

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Speaker 3: eight years of Phil Murphy. He's relatively unpopular in most polling.

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Speaker 3: We didn't pull him in this survey. I'm kind of

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Speaker 3: having regret about that because many surveys are coming back

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Speaker 3: showing him with actually a worse net approval rating than

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Speaker 3: governor than President Trump in New Jersey, which again is

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Speaker 3: kind of remarkable when you think about the state that

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Speaker 3: we're talking about. This is a state that hasn't voted

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Speaker 3: Republican for president since nineteen eighty eight. But now you've

433
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 3: got someone who is running on Phil Murphy's record. She's

434
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 3: not interested in changing anything. We kind of got a

435
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: Kamala ask answer from her when she was asked what

436
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 3: she wanted to do. Differently, I think she gave Phil

437
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 3: Murphy a B plus when asked at one of the

438
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: Democrat debates for what rating she would give him.

439
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 2: I think people so Obama gave himself.

440
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: Do you remember that Obama was like, I'm a solid

441
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: B plus president, a.

442
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 3: Solid B plus president.

443
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

444
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 3: Though, in fairness, when my wife has asked me, I've

445
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 3: said I'm a solid B plus husband. I've kind of

446
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 3: recycled that answer on occasion.

447
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: What is going so what is very unused? It's not

448
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,959
Speaker 1: New Jersey is not alone in this, but New Jersey

449
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: does the best. I'd give New Jersey a big piece

450
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 1: of credit. Besides the way you don't have to pump

451
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: your own gas, which is a great thing New.

452
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 3: Jersey now Oregon thru in the town quick.

453
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: I know what is what is great about New Jersey

454
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: is you do solid monthly reporting on voting data. Unlike

455
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: New York and California and other places which take forever,

456
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: New Jersey is one of the blue states that does it.

457
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 2: Every month.

458
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 1: They show you how many new registered Republicans and Democrats

459
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: county wide, congressional district, state Assembly district. New Jersey went

460
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: from having one point one million Democrats advantage at one

461
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: point one million Democratic advantage in twenty twenty to have

462
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: an eight hundred and fifty thousand. Now Republicans have netted

463
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: two hundred thousand votes between what Democrats have lost more

464
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: Republicans have gained. And it's been fairly organic. There is

465
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: not really a Jersey Republican machine. It's not flawd, you

466
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 1: know what I mean, not as close what is going on.

467
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: And by the way, and that was during COVID when

468
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans were leaving Jersey for the for

469
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: you know, a free year state.

470
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: So what was what is.

471
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 1: Going on on the ground in a place like New Jersey,

472
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 1: which are getting either independence or Democrats or just eighteen

473
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: year olds to register Republican.

474
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a very good point. It's one I've made

475
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 3: to many friends outside in New Jersey in recent weeks.

476
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 3: Scott Presler or Cliff Maloney, these famous Republican ballot chasers.

477
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 3: They're here now, but they've only been here for months,

478
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 3: not for years. Jack Chitdarelli came within three points in

479
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: twenty one. Trump came under six points in twenty twenty

480
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 3: four with no infrastructure. And I think the simple answer

481
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,959
Speaker 3: is twofold one. As I was talking about before, we've

482
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 3: seen a preview of where the left is going nationally

483
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: for a while now, and we don't love it. I

484
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 3: always like to say a little crass. I apologize, but

485
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter who gets to pee in which bathroom.

486
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 3: If no one can afford to live here, their priorities

487
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: are whacked out. And with our utility bills jumping, highest

488
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: property taxes in the nation, I think perhaps here there's

489
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 3: fatigue with that messaging. First. Also, so we're a very

490
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 3: diverse state relative to a lot of the other states

491
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 3: in the Union, and certainly some of the purple and

492
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 3: red states, like in Ohio, we have a lot of

493
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 3: Hispanic voters. Here, there's a lot of blackmail voters. There's

494
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: a lot of young New Jerseyans that don't necessarily vote

495
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 3: the same way as their parents or their grandparents. So

496
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 3: for the longest time, these kind of woke, affluent suburbs

497
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 3: in places like Morris County have helped Democrats remain strong here.

498
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 3: But if all of a sudden, a Republican like Jack

499
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 3: Schittarelli starts getting thirty percent of the urban vote, because

500
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 3: these voters don't recognize their values, of their priorities in

501
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 3: what they're hearing from someone like Mikey Cheryl, they're not

502
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 3: just in trouble, they're arguably doomed. We used to hear

503
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 3: when you and I were a little younger, demographics or

504
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 3: destiny for an argument as to why Republicans were eventually

505
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 3: going to go the way of the dinosaur. That's now

506
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 3: completely flipped, and you may be seeing it most acutely

507
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 3: here in New Jersey.

508
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mikey Cheryl was really bad in the Democratic prime

509
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: already in the urban vote the urban Democrat minority Democrats

510
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: specifically did not want her.

511
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 2: She lives, I.

512
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: Think in a community where I think the averaging comes

513
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty thousand dollars per person. It's an

514
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 1: incredibly white area.

515
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 3: They don't go to church Chamont Clair. They go to

516
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 3: Drag Queen's Story Houry their secular ritual. Yeah, and it's

517
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: it illustrates very much Ryan Like, that's the bubble that

518
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 3: she occupies, and I think everyone outside of that bubble

519
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: in New Jersey is starting to wake up.

520
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: What does it say that two Democratic mayors now have

521
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: endorsed her and there was allegedly and I know you

522
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: guys talked about it on Save Jersey. The meeting with

523
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 1: Nick Saiko is how you pronounce the last name Nick Jacho? Oh, yeah,

524
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: there was a meeting.

525
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 3: Boss.

526
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 2: He's denying it, but there was a meeting.

527
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: He does not like, uh, the Union City Democratic mayor

528
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: who loves Cheryl.

529
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: What does it say that.

530
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: Some Democratic mayors are willing to throw their hat in

531
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: behind Chitdarelli.

532
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: Well, I mean all the way back to the beginning

533
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: name of our convo of twenty thirteen, even two thousand

534
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 3: and nine, when Chris Christie was coming on strong. That's

535
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: what you began to see all across New Jersey. The

536
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 3: Democrat bosses began to split from the progressive base because

537
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, these guys, they don't

538
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: really believe in anything. They're transactional, so in order to

539
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 3: main control of the street, they don't want to go

540
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: in a complete opposite direction of it. So if they're

541
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 3: hearing as we're hearing, and we're seeing in certain data,

542
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 3: including an air poll, that black voters, Hispanic voters are saying,

543
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: you know, we're not picking up what Mikey Cheryl's putting down.

544
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few more

545
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: Democrat mayors before the end of this cycle say you

546
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 3: know what we're gonna We're gonna make a deal with Jack.

547
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: We're going to join up with the Republicans at least

548
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: this time around, in signal our independence. And that's particularly

549
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: bad news for her because, let's face it, we have

550
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 3: to pull Republicans out of the House to get him

551
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 3: to vote early. Right, it's getting a little bit easier,

552
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: but it's still not hard. These old krusty again, they

553
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 3: look like extras from the sopranos party bosses up north.

554
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: They know how to get it done. They go door

555
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 3: to door, They've got lists. She can't win without them.

556
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: Right, The Democratic Party machine is no joke, especially in

557
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: the case of Sacho in that city. Now peddling back

558
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: from the there's not just the governor's race, which is

559
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: obviously the most important and the most paid attention to,

560
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: especially with all this momentum hind Shittarelli. The legislature is

561
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: up for a vote, and Republicans made in men's gains

562
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: I think four years ago, and then they lost their

563
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: gains two years ago in the state House. Now they

564
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: have it up again. Is there any chance for Republicans

565
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: to gain the state legislature this time?

566
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, there is, and you know significantly enough, Chitdarelli. Even

567
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: though we lost by three points last time, to your point,

568
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 3: had those tremendous cottails in twenty twenty one, we picked

569
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 3: up a bunch of seats in South Jersey. I think

570
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 3: we could do it again. I'll give you one very

571
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: clear example, the third Legislative District, which is deep South Jersey,

572
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: so deep that you actually will get a Southern accent occasionally.

573
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know about that one mat

574
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 2: you look.

575
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 3: Next time you visit. We have a rodeo. It's called

576
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: the Cowtown Rodeo in LD three, and I took a

577
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 3: friend there from Montanda and he said it was legitimate.

578
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: So okay, I will make I'll make a believer of you.

579
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: That's a seven point five percent Trump district. It's currently

580
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: represented by an entirely Democrat legislative delegation. So if Jack

581
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 3: wins by what he should, I think you could see

582
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 3: Republicans pick up anywhere between a few seats to as

583
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 3: many as nine or even ten seats in the Assembly. Unfortunately,

584
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 3: the state Senate's not up this year. They won't be

585
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 3: on the bout again n till twenty seven. That may

586
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 3: be one of the only silver linings for Democrats right now,

587
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: because it might stave off a potentially larger catastrophe if

588
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: Jack really does run up the numbers. So I would.

589
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 3: I'll tell you this much. If you're listening to Ryan's

590
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 3: podcast and you want a viewer guide for election night,

591
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 3: New Jersey two counties in particular, you got to keep

592
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 3: your eye on Bergen and Gloucester. Gloucester has pieces of

593
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 3: three which I just mentioned in four, which I want

594
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: to say, is like a Harris plus one or two

595
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 3: district baked into it.

596
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: As South Jersey for those who don't know. But Gloucester's

597
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: in South Jersey.

598
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 3: It's in South Jersey, not far from Philly. It's traditionally

599
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 3: been a purple county, but it's moving to the right.

600
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: I think Jack wanted by like ten points last time,

601
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 3: so watch that also Bergen. Bergen got pretty blue because

602
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 3: of the suburban shift in the early part of the

603
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 3: Trump error, but it is now swinging back. Trump actually

604
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 3: performed pretty strongly there in twenty twenty four. This is

605
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: the most populous county in New Jersey, classic New York suburbs.

606
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 3: Watch that county. If Jack is closer wins Bergen County

607
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 3: on election night, he's going to succeed. And there are

608
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 3: maybe about four Assembly seats that he can win in

609
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 3: that county alone, thirty eight and thirty six.

610
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 1: You know, Matt is not in your writing anyway, though.

611
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:13,719
Speaker 1: This is the first time I ever spoken. You are

612
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: not an optimist, so you are coming off this is

613
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: a this you are I feel like you feel like

614
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: there's a lot going in favor of the Republicans right now.

615
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: In New Jersey.

616
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 3: What I always like to say, my friend is I'm

617
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 3: a hyperrealist, right we if you are working in a

618
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 3: state like New Jersey, you have to proceed sometimes in

619
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 3: the absence of hope because we don't.

620
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 2: Right, I understand, I relate completely. I'm from New York.

621
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 2: I get it.

622
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you get It's one of the reasons we get

623
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 3: along famously now because it's we have a similar mindset,

624
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: similar worldview. At look, at the end of the day,

625
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 3: I am optimistic this year because of what I can

626
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: see with my eyes. Disregard the glasses for a second,

627
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 3: because I can see well enough with them. This Trump

628
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 3: coalition that came together over the course of nearly a decade. Now,

629
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 3: the fear has been that it's only going to stand

630
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: with the President, that it's not going to translate to

631
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,720
Speaker 3: anyone else. What we suspect we're seeing here in New Jersey,

632
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 3: and we've got a lot of evidence to back it up,

633
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: is that no, it is something that is part of

634
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 3: a sustainable realignment. Now, of course, it's up to Republican

635
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 3: candidates to make sure they continue to earn those votes.

636
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 3: It's not something that's a birthright that's going to get

637
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 3: handed down as a matter of right. But Jack has

638
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: hit the right notes. Republicans this year running strong in

639
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: New Jersey, and there's all the evidence that they are

640
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 3: going to put some semblance of that Trump coalition together

641
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 3: this November. And as I'm always telling my friends in Pennsylvania,

642
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 3: New York, everywhere else, if New Jersey's purple, some of

643
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 3: these other purple states are never going to be anything

644
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: but read.

645
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 1: Again, Well, the slogan people are saying is Pennsylvania is

646
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: the new Ohio and New Jersey is in New Pennsylvania.

647
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: My last question is one of the Trump so looking

648
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: at twenty twenty four, did significantly better than Trump in

649
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: western New Jersey, in southern New Jersey and in like

650
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 1: more of the affluent suburbs. Trump did much better among

651
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 1: minorities and among the Orthodox Jewish. But there's a large

652
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 1: Orthodox Jewish vote in Lakewood, New Jersey. Lakewood has a

653
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: Democratic state House member, even though it is a super

654
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 1: Republican area, because he's an Orthodox Jew. Do Republicans have

655
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 1: a chance both at winning back that state House seat?

656
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,479
Speaker 1: And two, how are the Orthodox Jews because they split

657
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 1: their vote last time? Even though that Chitarelly won it

658
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 1: they were not as I think Trump won the Orthodox

659
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: Jews by like plus seventy seven and Chittle went like

660
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: plus thirty. Is it more that's a big population. Is

661
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 1: there more of a chance of Chitarelly getting some support

662
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 1: from them?

663
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: Oh, it's it's massive. I think the next time we

664
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: draw the districts, they're probably going to have their own

665
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 3: legislative district, which is really it's really remarkable. I think

666
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 3: there's a good chance that Jack is going to get them.

667
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 3: Phil Murphy, for as much as I like to make

668
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 3: fun of the guy and criticize the guy, because he

669
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 3: deserves every little bit of it, he's a shrewd politician.

670
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 3: Nobody would accuse him of being stupid. He cut the

671
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 3: r ideals and the leaders of that particular community. Again,

672
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 3: like many bosses in New Jersey politics tend to be transactional.

673
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 3: Part of the reason why there's now a Democrat there

674
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 3: is not because the guy is super far left. It's

675
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 3: because they couldn't break in and get their own Republican seats.

676
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 3: They decided to make a deal with somebody that would

677
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 3: give them one. So the way you win out there

678
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 3: is by not trying to win the Republican primary, it's

679
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 3: by becoming a Democrat. But I think Jack is going

680
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 3: to do very well. And I think that we could

681
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,959
Speaker 3: get to a point on election night Ryan where if

682
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 3: he really does run away with this thing and opens

683
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 3: it up, and by New Jersey standards, that would be

684
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 3: Jack winning by a few points statewide reflected down ballot

685
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 3: a red place like Ocean County, the margin might just

686
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 3: get so wide that some wacky things start to happen,

687
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 3: including a Republican regaining his seat eat when otherwise, because

688
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: of all the deals have been made down ballot, you

689
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 3: might not really have a chance of recapturing that lake

690
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 3: would seed well.

691
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: And I also think because they want it in twenty

692
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: twenty three, when turnout was much lower, but except for

693
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: the Jewish community to turnout.

694
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 2: Was very very high.

695
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 1: So I'm hopeful that because you know, Joe Shmo, who

696
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: doesn't usually vote, goes to vote for Jack down all

697
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 1: Republican and they'll win that seat. I'm curious about it.

698
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: Where can people go to read more of the Great

699
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: Matt Rooney and all things New Jersey.

700
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 3: The Great Matt Runey I did not pay him to

701
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: say that, so you can check me out on X

702
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 3: of course Matt Rooney and Jay and then of course

703
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 3: you can visit Savejersey dot com. That's where I post

704
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 3: all my rantings and ramblings. And obviously we're going to

705
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 3: continue to analyze the data and provide plenty of commentary

706
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 3: now through November. It's going to be exciting. That's the

707
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 3: one thing we can guarantee. And if it goes the

708
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 3: way that I really do believe it can go, here Ryan,

709
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 3: stay tuned, don't tune turn away or tune now after

710
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 3: overb fourth because if New Jersey has an America first governor,

711
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 3: can you imagine the leftists freak out?

712
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,319
Speaker 1: Well if New Jersey, I mean Trump lost New Jersey

713
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,760
Speaker 1: by about six If New Jersey is a swing state,

714
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 1: I mean the whole country changes. I mean, it really

715
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: does change. And of all the states aside from like

716
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 1: when was the last time like a true blue state

717
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,879
Speaker 1: became a swing state. I mean a lot of swing

718
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 1: states have become red states, and a few red states

719
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: have become blues dates, but I the last like true

720
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 1: blue red state is hard to think of that became

721
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 1: a I mean you have to go back to the nineties,

722
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: I think.

723
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 2: So it's a big big, big change, a big deal.

724
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: It's a big deal, and it's also a huge deal

725
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 3: for the mid terms. I keep reminding every one of

726
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 3: their history before New Gingridge's Republican Revolution, it was preceded

727
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 3: in ninety three by a victory in New Jersey, the

728
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: Tea Party Revolution to twenty ten, two thousand and ninety

729
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 3: year before Chris Christie upset John resign and flip New Jersey.

730
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 3: So it's not just about the larger picture, it's also

731
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: about two thousand and twenty six. If the Republicans are

732
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 3: successful in my home state this year, this whole blue

733
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 3: wave backlash against the tyrant Trump narrative they're trying to

734
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,240
Speaker 3: run with it evaporates.

735
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 2: Well, Matt, thanks coming on this podcast. I appreciate it.

736
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, sir.

737
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: Hey, we'll be right back after this. Now it's time

738
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: to Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be

739
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 1: part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me

740
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers Plural,

741
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 1: Numbers Game Podcast dot com. I love via emails.

742
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 2: I get them all.

743
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 1: I've been reading a lot about my mom's interview about

744
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: the nine to eleven surviving the nine to eleven. I'm

745
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: going to pass them along to her. Such nice comments,

746
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 1: I genuinely appreciate it. But if you have any show

747
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,720
Speaker 1: ideas or questions you want me to answer on the show,

748
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 1: I'm here for it.

749
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 2: I'm down for it. Okay, first question, Hey Ryan, my

750
00:39:58,560 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 2: name is Robbi.

751
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 1: I've actually bumped into you a few times about a

752
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: decade and a half ago, back in New York. I

753
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: live in northeastern Pennsylvania. It's hell, sorry, Robby. I like

754
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: Northeast in Pennsylvania, but I've never lived there. I've was

755
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,439
Speaker 1: inspired to get involved in my first campaign in twenty

756
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: twenty four for Trump and a few other candidates. My

757
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: top issue is immigration, immigration, immigration, crime, and inflation. I've

758
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 1: been avid follower for fifteen years and listen to you everywhere.

759
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: I'm excited about your video for the podcast. Is there

760
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: any chance that you can make ask me anything into

761
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 1: a sort of two way? No, because I don't tape

762
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 1: at the same time every week, so i'd have to

763
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 1: make sure that everyone knew what time I was taping.

764
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,919
Speaker 1: It's not a fixed thing. I don't know the technology either.

765
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 1: It would just be very, very difficult. I'll probably just

766
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: read your answers and maybe publish like a little snippet.

767
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:51,840
Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna.

768
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: I can't do that. It's just the technology has passed

769
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: me and my schedule is too crazy. I'm actually not

770
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: paid to be Ryan Gradusky. I don't just do personality

771
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,919
Speaker 1: stuff I do. I have a company and I work,

772
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: so it's very difficult. I have to work around guest time.

773
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 1: It's just that's a little impossible for me right now.

774
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 1: Maybe if the show really takes off and all I

775
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: do is the show, that we can make that happen,

776
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: but it's not capable right now. My reason for this

777
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 1: emails if you could do an episode or two in

778
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 1: political violence. I think I did one. You probably send

779
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 1: it before this the podcast and bring on an colter

780
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 1: to share her own past experiences and has been my

781
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 1: number one favorite for many years. And maybe you two

782
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 1: could do a podcast and then a little tour together.

783
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: I would love to have another episode with ann On.

784
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: I have to reach out to her. This is a

785
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: great idea. I think we could really speak to like

786
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: left wing violence. I had ann on the very beginning

787
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 1: of the show, on like the first episode, as far

788
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 1: as like a live event. It's my that's my big ambition.

789
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 1: One day you do a live event with this podcast.

790
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 1: I just need to boost the numbers up to make

791
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,320
Speaker 1: sure that people will show up. And I'm not speaking

792
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 1: to an empty room, not like I'm not doing that

793
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: right now, but to have people to listen to me.

794
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: So tell your friends and family and like and subscribe

795
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: to this podcast, and maybe that will happen. But thank you, Robbie. Okay,

796
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 1: last question for this episode. Hi, Ryan, I just listened

797
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: to your nine to eleven episode.

798
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:10,399
Speaker 2: Your mom.

799
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: Thank you for sharing her story. Nine to eleven becomes more

800
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: abstract even from any of us, so it was good

801
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 1: to hear a personal perspective. Thank you for that comment.

802
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 1: By the way, this reader's name is Stephanie. Thank you, Stephanie.

803
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: I love your podcast. I learn a lot each episode.

804
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 1: Thank you for bringing data. I would be interested in

805
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: data about interracial marriage. In what parts of the country

806
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 1: is interracial marriage rate highest lowest, How does it differ

807
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: across so so economic classes, how does it differ across races,

808
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 1: which immigrant groups are more or less likely to marry

809
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 1: outside their race? And has a gun up or down?

810
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: Since BLM, Stephanie, that is a great question that I've

811
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: never really thought about before.

812
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 2: Let me, I did crunch some data, so let me

813
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: get it for you.

814
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: It's a little difficult to answer because Latinos, for example.

815
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 2: Or Arabs are not a race. They are an ethnic group, so.

816
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: They it's not a perfect way did I decipher this?

817
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 1: It's kind of a little a little messy. And marriage

818
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 1: data is not like birth data, where we publish it

819
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 1: constantly in the CDC or in the Yeah, in the

820
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: CDC every year, and the scale of what is considered

821
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: a white person changes pretty dramatically with over time. Like

822
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: you know, one hundred years ago, Italians and Irish weren't

823
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: classified as white and now Armenians and Georgians are. So

824
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: working with what I had at my availability, the number

825
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: one group I actually did not know. I didn't know this,

826
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: but I didn't. I didn't put this in my head

827
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:45,959
Speaker 1: for some reason. This comes from twenty fifteen's Pew Research data,

828
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 1: so it's a little dated. But the number one group

829
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: for interracial marriage, and it is by far the highest,

830
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 1: is actually Asians. Asian Americans. Forty six percent of all

831
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 1: Asian Americans who are born in the US married out

832
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 1: side their race. It is wide scale. The farthest highest.

833
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 1: The second would be Latinos. Latinos are at twenty seven percent,

834
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: so which is very high, one in four, with forty

835
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: percent of those being Hispanics who marry whites. Anyway, that

836
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: is the that's the number one, and number two it's

837
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: Asians and then Hispanics. And you asked about immigrant group, obviously,

838
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: then it's Asian because Asians have our fairly new immigrant

839
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: group in the long history of our country, and by

840
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 1: the second generation, a lot of them marry outside of

841
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: their race, of Asian women being the highest among all

842
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: groups at thirty seven percent of all Asian women. Among

843
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,799
Speaker 1: Asian women born in america's over fifty percent. As far

844
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 1: as which area it is in the West that the

845
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: state that is the number one interracial marriage is actually Hawaii,

846
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 1: something else I did not know, and they said overall

847
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: the West Coast has the highest map when it comes

848
00:44:57,080 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 1: to socioeconomic class. I would guess, and this is a

849
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 1: guest because the data didn't say this, but if it's

850
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 1: Asian Americans who have the highest level of college degree holders,

851
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 1: it's probably higher income people with higher college degree levels.

852
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 1: Once again, that's a guest, but that is probably which

853
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 1: one it is, and as far as going up or down,

854
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 1: the data is all pre BLMS, so I don't have

855
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 1: any new data to give to you. It's not like

856
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 1: the government reports every year along with other information. So

857
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 1: that's that's the info, Stephanie. On interracial marriage. I hope

858
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 1: you found interesting. I found interesting researching it, even there

859
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: are questions that I don't I'm not super passionate about.

860
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 1: I find interesting doing this research. So that's a great question, Stepanie.

861
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 1: Thank you for sending it to me. I appreciate you listening,

862
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 1: and I appreciate you all listening. If you like this podcast,

863
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 1: please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

864
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, and I will talk to

865
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 1: you guys on Thursday