WEBVTT - Episode 839: Predicting the Taiwan Strait Crises 0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:07.400 On this episode of News World, how close are we 0:00:07.440 --> 0:00:10.400 to a crisis? With China and the Taiwan Straits. My 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:15.159 guest today is doctor Waifong Zhong, Senior Advisor for the 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:18.640 Office for Fiscal and Regulatory Analysis at the America First 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:23.120 Policy Institute and an affiliate scholar at the Mercada Center 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:27.360 at George Mason University. He leads the open source Policy 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:33.519 Change Index PCI project, which uses artificial intelligence and machine 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:38.240 learning to read large volumes of propaganda text to analyze 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:42.960 and predict government's actions based on their words. Using PCI, 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:46.720 doctor Jeong is out with a new paper entitled Predicting 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:52.000 Taiwan's Straight Crisis using Propaganda, a new open source method. 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:11.479 Pay Fong, welcome and thank you for joining me again 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:12.480 on news World. 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:14.640 Thank you, mister speaker for having me again. 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:19.080 Before we get into China and Taiwan. I have to 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:22.520 ask you, because I'm fascinated about the whole process. The 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.880 system you've now built scans how many items a day? 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:27.640 On average? 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:31.679 We catch every news article that comes out of the 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:36.480 Chinese propaganda machine, which by which I mean the People's Statey. 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.560 Not only the people of Statey, the central newspaper, but 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:44.959 also now many other provincial and ministerial newspapers from China, 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:47.240 so we collect them every day. 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:52.320 The system reached Chinese. Yes, do you also monitor Taiwan? 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:57.400 We also just started monitoring new speed from Taiwan too. 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.080 It takes two parties to take part in the conflict, 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:02.720 which is a big part of why we are not 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:04.840 expanding the data collection to Taiwan. 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:10.160 When you're looking at all this material, how fast does 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:11.400 your system analyze it? 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:16.880 Well, we catch all these content as it comes out, 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:20.280 and then we have in the back end a series 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:25.680 of models that ingest these data into the algorithms, and 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.440 then we do our calculations for different purposes. And for example, 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:34.840 we monitor Chinese officials their rights and fall in the 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:39.239 political fortune in Beijing. Oftentimes we catch ahead of time 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:42.680 the fall of key officials when they got into trouble 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.320 with the authorities. Which do you thinking that was showed 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.400 up in propaganda too or included a rise sometimes you 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:51.160 know you see black forces coming up in the scene 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.400 in Beijing. And the same is true for monitoring Chinese 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:58.519 attitude towards Hong Kong, Taiwan, the US on a number 0:02:58.560 --> 0:02:59.120 of issues. 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:03.440 Given this kind of quantitative analysis, are you sort of 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:05.959 looking for word patterns or what are you looking for? 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:12.000 The most important thing we look for is anomalies, things 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:16.480 that deviate from the trend or the baseline. And this 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:20.720 is very unique when it comes to analyzing authoritarian regimes 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:24.040 propaganda because we are not really talking about news, the 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.640 real fake news, which is propaganda coming out from regimes 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.960 like the Russians and Chinese. And with these regimes, we 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:35.040 should not think of their let's say, their newspaper or 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:38.360 their radio broadcast as facts. We should think of them 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:42.240 as the regime's attitude. So what's really important is to 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:48.280 measure to catch the moment these attitude changes, because oftentimes 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:53.640 indicate the intentions, Beijing's intention, mascots, intentions, and intention. 0:03:54.600 --> 0:04:00.480 From that standpoint, how should Americans understand the Chinese Communist 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:01.680 parties view of Taiwan. 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:06.440 A good analogy to make it actually to look at 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:10.520 the CCP's attitude toward the student protesters going back to 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:14.280 nineteen eighty nine, the Tmn' Square protests, and that's an 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.000 excellent example. I mean, it's a tragedy, but it's also 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:23.000 a very good example to understand how propaganda operates. Because initially, 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.640 when the students were protesting in Beijing. They were advocating 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:30.479 for a more open government, open society to some extent, 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:33.800 beaging knowledge that they said, these people they came on 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:38.320 with good intention, the protesters, demonstrators, and they all have 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:40.719 a hope for a better future for the country. But 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:44.320 then when things got out of hand, it's actually necessary, 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:48.279 tragically necessary for the regime to change how they describe 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.240 these students, they would say, because if they're good people, 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:53.480 you can't crack down, you can't send in troops to 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:56.640 kill them, right, and so they had to become in 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.520 some sense, in the propaganda sense bad people. We saw 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:04.720 in nineteen eighty nine. Looking back is that the propaganda 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:07.960 dramatically changed how they describe these students. At the end, 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:11.400 they became like morons in the newspaper, and that's needed 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:15.080 before they could actually send in troops. The same logic 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:18.839 holds here when it comes to the Chinese stitude toward Taiwan, 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:22.039 because the ordinary Chinese people, they don't really hate the 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:27.680 people in Taiwan, but war or conflicts connectic. Conflict requires 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:32.240 negative sentiment, requires popular support for the regime to you know, 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:36.080 send missiles over. And so this is exactly what we're 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:40.760 monitoring is how the regime if at any point trying 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:45.240 to move the public attitude to the negative side toward Taiwan, 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:48.760 which is something that happened very significantly in nineteen ninety 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:52.800 five to nineteen ninety six for the last Taiwan stract crisis. 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.800 I know, mister speaker, you had some personal connection to 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.240 this episode, because I know you went to Taiwan the 0:05:58.320 --> 0:05:58.760 year after. 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:00.920 Is that nineteen ninety seven. 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:02.560 I think it was in ninety seven, But in ninety 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:06.960 six I was on TV saying that President Clinton was 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:10.520 right to send a second aircraft carrier into the streets 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.159 and that we were sending a clear signal to Beijing 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:15.719 that in fact, we would fight if they tried to 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:19.600 invade Taiwan. When I visited, it was a fascinating experience. 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:23.000 But as you look at the data sets you're getting 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:27.560 what can you tell? For example, the military leaders are 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:30.880 making predictions, and it seems to me that at times 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:34.360 they're predicted that oh this is Chinese commiss military leaders 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:38.080 their predictions would imply some kind of combat in the 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:39.320 not very distant future. 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.640 Yeah, absolutely right, mister speaker. But the same is true 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.679 for American military leaders too. They're all sorts of estimates, 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:50.040 bry predictions about when something like it would happen some 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:51.360 set twenty twenty four. 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:54.920 Luckily that has passed. Now a lot of eyes are 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.239 on twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty nine. 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:00.479 I think the Chinese witterer leaders did the saying, but 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:03.680 I think a lot of these military assessments they focus 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:07.599 more on the capabilities, like when China has the capability 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:11.440 to overtake Taiwan, but that depends on how much interference 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.520 we see from other parties such as the US, the 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:15.680 rest of the Western. 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:16.440 World, and maybe Japan. 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:20.679 So all these are important variables to the capability portion. 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:23.680 But I think from again the data, we see more 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:24.160 of them. 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:28.080 Do you see the Chinese communists that are showing up 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:31.840 in your data sets becoming more bella coost and more 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.480 leaning towards a military operation, Not. 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:37.920 In a very recent month. 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:43.880 So we developed this AI algorithm to learn from what 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:48.080 happened back in nineteen ninety six, arguably the most intensive 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:52.520 crisis in recent times, and then we use what we 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:57.480 learned from that episode to monitor subsequently former Speaker Pelosi's 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:00.720 visit to Taiwan a couple of years ago, as well 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:04.240 as the meeting between the Taiwanese president and former Speaker 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:08.800 Kevin McCarthy. What appears to be the pattern now is 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.760 that there are strong reactions. I think when how he 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.400 placed US officials visit Taiwan a meet with the Taiwanese leaders. 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:17.960 But the magnitude has decreased. 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:23.280 It's almost like what was initially a crisis has now 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:25.360 begun to be They grumble, but it's now sort of 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:29.240 normal to have visits. I remember originally, boy, it was 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:32.520 like a giant crisis. Even to land in San Francisco 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.760 or Los Angeles was a huge deal. Analysis kind of 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:36.760 background grumbling. 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:41.080 Right, if you compare from speaker to speaker, right from you, 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:45.240 mister speaker to Speaker Pelosi, speaker of MC coffee, the 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:48.640 magnitude of reactions from Beijing has declined, which actually shows 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:53.680 a lot of value of demonstrating American strength in this situation. 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:58.679 When we show strength, Beijing will think twice about how 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:02.199 aggressive they want to be. And that's really the purpose. 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.400 I image of your visit to Taiwan too. 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:05.560 Back in the days. 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:25.840 You've developed this large language model. Does it actually report 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.120 back to you in Chinese or does it translated into English. 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:32.680 It reports back to me in Chinese, which is where 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.559 my human intelligence comes in, is that I would interpret 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:38.960 that in ingresh writing to our audience as our readers. 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:42.280 But the machine is clellly operating in the Chinese language, 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:45.880 not only Chinese language, actually the Chinese culture and Chinese 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.560 way of news reporting in the system. Because that's alway 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:51.559 ingesting to the model. 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.520 As an amateur, did I read about the idea that 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:58.960 when you have an artificial intelligence model like yours, it 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:00.920 then has to go through a pret being trained. 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:02.880 What does that mean? 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.800 Let's start with what's called large language models, which is 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:12.040 basically models built on every word ever other on the Internet, 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:16.040 possibly the big companies they can possibly find right which 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:20.840 include Chinese language. But that gigantic lake up data, if 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:24.320 you will, it's not particularly helpful when it comes to China, 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:26.959 for example, of China versus Taiwan, because it's a very 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:28.040 specific context. 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:30.240 So the training in. 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.720 This case means if you just ask a question to 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.960 the AI in Chinese, it would respond to you, but 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:38.920 it will be based on the vast number of Chinese 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:43.400 language material on the Internet, which included Chinese language that 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:47.200 were data spoken on the US Internet. Because they are 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:50.800 Chinese immigrants here, but their Chinese language content is very 0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:54.319 different from Chinese language content coming out from the CCP. 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:57.680 In our case, when we do these projects, training means 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:02.360 to steer the AI to focus more on content in 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.320 the propaganda coming up on the propaganda system, So pay 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:08.880 more attention to those and ignore whoever you know Chinese 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:11.280 immigrants in San Francisco are talking about in blogs. 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:14.400 So that's not really rather than to the question at hand. 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:17.720 So, as I understand it, as you were developing this, 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:22.280 you actually were training it using the people's daily articles 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:26.560 during the nineteen ninety five Taiwan Straight Crisis, which led 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:31.360 to military escalation by China, Taiwan and the US. I'm 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:36.000 curious as you went through that assessment, did you learn anything. 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:39.360 Did you see the nineteen ninety five crisis any differently 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.360 after you got the report back from the machine. 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:48.600 I think what surprised me the most after seeing what 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:52.880 the machine returns is how much the road the US 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:58.920 plays in the escalation in the whole crisis. Fundamentally, Taiwan 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:02.199 is an issue of reunifying with Taiwan is almost a 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:06.000 requirement for the CCP region. So that in our assessment 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:09.200 remains the number one most important factor, but the number 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:13.200 two most important factor was the Chinese attitude toward the 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:18.120 United States, and that changed drastically during the crisis too. 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:19.960 So it's not really an issue. 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.840 Taiwan is not really an issue just between the mainland 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:28.080 China and Taiwan. It's how the Beijing preceved strength of 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.400 the West, which goes back to the point of when 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:35.960 we demonstrate strength, Beijing's reaction to these, even just bilateral 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.000 visits between the US and Taiwan less and less significantly 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.480 over the years in recent years, I think that should 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:45.200 be counted as an achievement of our foreign policy rather 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:46.600 than weakness in any sense. 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.640 So, in a sense, a little bit less Bella Coost, 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:54.559 a little bit less on the edge of war than 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:56.199 they were in ninety five ninety six. 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.600 Yeah, if we're just comparing from like a sets from 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:03.360 speaker to the speaker in the last few episodes, it 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.280 seems to be the case. But I also wonder it's 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:10.120 hard to distinguish is to what extent the weakness now 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:13.000 in Beijin comes from the weakness of the Chinese economy 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:17.280 or the Chinese development stage, so to speak, which really 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.120 has been having a really hard time in the last 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.680 few years too. So the difference between Colosi and mccaffee, 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.600 for example, could be to some extent due to the 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.480 weakness of the Chinese economy that's trending down since the 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:34.880 COVID lockdown was lifted in much of China. 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:37.000 The process that we're in the middle of right now, 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:42.720 Jiji panclearly has faced with. Even before Trump and the Terrified, 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:47.240 the Chinese economy was in significant trouble, both because the 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.600 one child policy has now led to a dramatic decline 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:54.839 in the workforce, because they had overbuilt entire towns, not 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:59.160 just overbuilt buildings, but entire towns. They had over extended 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:03.000 themselves in terms of internal lending. That could either lead 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.160 him to be more aggressive so people would pay attention 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:10.280 to and rally around nationalism, or he could lead them 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.880 to be more cautious because he would feel like he 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.839 doesn't have a stable and solid a base. What's your 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:21.120 handsh of how those two way out well. 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:24.040 I think in the end, an actual kinetic conflict or 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.200 even an invasion would have to be an outcome of 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:31.200 two things. One is the Beijing's strength internally, because that 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:34.560 has to deal with capabilities. But the other intention how 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.520 desperate Shei Jimpin is in overtaking Taiwan. 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:38.920 Every time I think. 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:40.960 About this, I go back to the notion of legacy. 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.480 Political legacy a lot in the Chinese context. If you 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:48.480 compare Cjimpin with his predecessors, including those you met mister 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:51.760 speaker in Beijing, Jian Jamin and his supportinates at the time. 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.520 So if you compare for something from Janjumin to Hu 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:58.480 Jintao to announce C. Jimpin, you could name a few 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:01.920 things as great as a achievements by Janatamine for example, 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:06.840 right leading China into the wto taking back Hong Kong 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:11.200 and Macau holding the Beijing Olympics to some extent that 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.120 went to Puljintail as well. But if you think about 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.720 cj he really didn't have much achievements so far. It's 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.840 running the economy down to the ditch and many other 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.720 things down to the ditch too, And so one argument 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:26.560 to be made is that he is desperate in looking 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:30.640 for achievements, particularly when his next five year term comes up, 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:32.880 which is twenty twenty seven. I think that has a 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:35.760 lot to do with other assessment about why the timeline 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.560 has to be twenty twenty seven, because by twenty twenty 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.920 seven he will be seeking another run, right, And even 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:46.080 though China does not have democracy, popular support still matters 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:48.720 to him, and the lack of it matters even more. 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:52.280 And so one could make the argument that taking back 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.360 Taiwan in the timely manner would matter a lot to 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.480 his political legacy, because so far he has none. So 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.480 that's I think a major factor. But of course he's 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:03.200 not going to be able to do that if the 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:07.480 Chinese military power and economic power continue to decline, which 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:10.520 is why I think it's very important to continue to 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:14.240 monitor the situation that weighing these two factors over the 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:17.040 next few years to see which one comes out dominant. 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.400 Do you see in that sense as being almost like 0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.040 an American politician in that he wants a way out 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:28.000 which gives him dignity and makes him important, but he 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.960 may not want to risk the destruction of the regime 0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:32.840 in order to get there. 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.680 Absolutely, I think in the end, as we always say, right, 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:41.480 foreign policy fundamentally is domestic policy, and domestic policy fundamentally 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:45.120 is about the legacy or legitimacy. Right in a normal 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:48.960 democratic country, legacy takes a form of having more votes 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.840 right in the next election and more support for the 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:52.960 party if you do well. 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.760 But in China, I think the bar is much lower. 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:59.160 But if the legacy is low enough, it might tricker 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:01.760 a lot of opposite even from within the leads. 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:02.000 Right. 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:05.080 We have seen that actually during the COVID lockdown period 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.480 when people couldn't stand it, you know, we see university 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:12.000 students coming out to protest too, and that makes people 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.520 think again to look back to find a similarity to 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:19.000 for example, student protesters in km and Square. So all 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:21.600 these are very unpleasant images for the CCP. 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:38.399 One of the things that you came up with that 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:43.600 I was surprised by is that your analysis of mass 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:48.440 scale of information shows a real decline in reporting about 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.639 the outside world by the People's Daily that is just 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:53.840 less and less important than the story. What do you 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:54.680 think is going on? 0:17:56.160 --> 0:18:00.520 We actually just publish a journal article about this journal 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.160 of Contemporary China, where we actually track how the CCP 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:08.040 mentions all the different countries including Taiwan, the US and 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:12.000 everywhere else, versus any content that's purely domestic. 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.199 So the CCP's. 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:17.800 Vision, I think, in the last almost twenty years now 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:22.760 has increasingly narrowed, so their eyes are more on domestic 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:27.200 issues less on the outside world. Initially, I think that's 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:31.440 because the trading with a lot of outside world, engaging 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.879 with a lot of outside world becomes less critical, Like, 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:37.840 for example, they used to emphasize Europe a lot, but 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.600 not right now. I think CCP doesn't think Europe is 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:44.040 relevant because Europe has been in some sort of decline, 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:47.199 right But in later years, even the attention to the 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.720 US has declined, and I think that it's not really 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:54.040 an indication of the America in decline, is in indication 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:59.159 that Hijinpin himself is more and more narrow minded. And 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:01.719 I think that's a very dangerous situation to be in 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:05.040 because when you don't even report to the outside world, 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:07.760 not to say the reporting is accurate, but when you 0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:11.240 report even to a lesser extent, it makes. 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:13.040 All the elites in the society. 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:16.280 And everyone else in China more nearrow minded, because that's 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:18.600 the only source already right to the outside world, and 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.240 even that is not covering a lot. 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.200 It seems to me like they're beginning to move more 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:28.800 and more inwardly oriented and less or less aggressively trying 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:32.919 to become a worldwide power because there just have too 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:36.280 many domestic problems. I mean, does that seem accurate to 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:37.840 you to. 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:38.600 A large extent. 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:43.080 That's not the same to say China's actual activities in 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:47.119 terms of engaging with the outside world are necessarily in decline. 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:50.600 We have seen the continued effort to boost. 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:53.399 Up the Baton Road initiatives for example, right China is 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:57.359 still trying to forge all these collaborations with the Baton 0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:01.800 Road countries in Asia, in Africa, in South America. But 0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:05.680 the way they approach that this projects has also changed. 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.960 In the past they emphasized more on economic development, but 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:13.479 now they emphasize more integrating them into the Chinese values 0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:16.440 because they come up with this value system that they 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:18.840 basically try to turn all these other countries to the 0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:21.919 same way of thinking as the CCP has engaging. So 0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:25.760 that's a narrow minded vision, not necessarily a narrow minded activity. 0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:30.000 It's always struck me that they're so good at running 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:34.080 into totalitarian system and they've developed all of these cameras 0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:38.680 and facial recognition and massive ability to track a billion 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.200 people that if I were a local dictator, I might 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:45.159 like to have the Chinese come and show me how 0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:47.960 to make sure that I'm totally secure, and in that sense, 0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:50.440 they may have something to offer that we don't have. 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:54.320 Well, actually, the Chinese have offered that it's a speaker 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:56.000 to a lot of developing countries. 0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:58.600 The Chinese technologies had. 0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:02.920 Over the years power to many surveillance systems in African countries, 0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:05.879 and some of these episodes have come up in the 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:09.440 news reporting on how they helped these non democratic regions 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.800 to monitor their own people. Which is why I think 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:15.399 in the US is really a justified concern on a 0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.320 lot of technologies we have here because they could potentially 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:21.560 and some did, provide the capabilities for beaging to monitor us. 0:21:22.240 --> 0:21:24.600 And we'll talk about Hawwei. We're talking about TikTok. 0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:28.119 TikTok's a perfect example Huawei, which is one of the 0:21:28.200 --> 0:21:31.679 major failures I had in the first Trump administration. I 0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:34.520 kept trying to warn them that Huawei is very dangerous 0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:39.120 and very powerful and currently very successful worldwide. It provides 0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:44.480 access for the Chinese communist that is I think very sobering. 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.199 Absolutely, and I think there are two layers of the 0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:47.960 dangers here. 0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:53.400 TikTok is a speaker, it's one the proper ganda through content, 0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:55.680 so to create a pro China content right to try 0:21:55.720 --> 0:21:59.840 to influence online. But HAWA is a vulnerability where information 0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:05.160 itself could be tapped into by the CCP, and we 0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:09.040 actually have that with TikTok too, because the way TikTok 0:22:09.040 --> 0:22:12.840 collects information is down to your fingertip, like how you 0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:16.280 scroll on your screen and how you select content. And 0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:20.360 in my opinion, it's actually very damaging in the longer 0:22:20.480 --> 0:22:24.000 term because when apps are able to monitor our behavior, 0:22:24.720 --> 0:22:27.120 it would be able to learn our preferences to how 0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:30.120 we think about things, or how American voters think about 0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:34.480 different niches, and knowing that it's incredibly valuable because that's 0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:36.240 a huge intelligence. 0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:38.160 It has a huge value on intelligence. 0:22:38.760 --> 0:22:41.679 I buy a lot of books on Amazon, and it 0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:44.800 now in two it's what I might be interested in 0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:49.480 based on my behavior. So the giantic system that Amazon 0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:53.800 has is sort of studying me and figuring out what 0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:56.960 to offer me in a way that is on the 0:22:57.000 --> 0:22:59.679 one hand, is very practical and very helpful. On the 0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:01.639 other end, and it's a little scary. 0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:08.200 It's actually very scary. Even Amazon could potentially learn your schedule, 0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:10.560 mister speaker, like when you would scroll on the app 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:13.399 to shop they would figure out your sleep patterns, you 0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:15.080 know when you couldn't sleep in the middle of the 0:23:15.200 --> 0:23:18.000 night and you're trying to buy some gadget on Amazon. 0:23:18.520 --> 0:23:21.120 Now imagine all that that every company in the world 0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:24.680 is doing that. But imagine a world where every company 0:23:24.720 --> 0:23:29.440 submits that information to the CCP. That's their vision of governance, 0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:31.879 the global governance, and we should try very hard to 0:23:31.920 --> 0:23:33.000 prevent that from happening. 0:23:33.520 --> 0:23:37.040 So do you think you'll extend this new methodology to 0:23:37.200 --> 0:23:38.240 looking at other countries? 0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:39.359 We have. 0:23:40.040 --> 0:23:43.240 Last year we put out an algorithm that monitors came 0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:46.000 young to North Korea, So we have gathered the North 0:23:46.080 --> 0:23:49.879 Korean content and we made the similar algorithm to detect 0:23:49.920 --> 0:23:52.440