1 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World, how close are we 2 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: to a crisis? With China and the Taiwan Straits. My 3 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:15,159 Speaker 1: guest today is doctor Waifong Zhong, Senior Advisor for the 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: Office for Fiscal and Regulatory Analysis at the America First 5 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: Policy Institute and an affiliate scholar at the Mercada Center 6 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: at George Mason University. He leads the open source Policy 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: Change Index PCI project, which uses artificial intelligence and machine 8 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: learning to read large volumes of propaganda text to analyze 9 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: and predict government's actions based on their words. Using PCI, 10 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: doctor Jeong is out with a new paper entitled Predicting 11 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: Taiwan's Straight Crisis using Propaganda, a new open source method. 12 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,479 Speaker 1: Pay Fong, welcome and thank you for joining me again 13 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: on news World. 14 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: Thank you, mister speaker for having me again. 15 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: Before we get into China and Taiwan. I have to 16 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: ask you, because I'm fascinated about the whole process. The 17 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: system you've now built scans how many items a day? 18 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: On average? 19 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 3: We catch every news article that comes out of the 20 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 3: Chinese propaganda machine, which by which I mean the People's Statey. 21 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 3: Not only the people of Statey, the central newspaper, but 22 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 3: also now many other provincial and ministerial newspapers from China, 23 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 3: so we collect them every day. 24 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: The system reached Chinese. Yes, do you also monitor Taiwan? 25 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 3: We also just started monitoring new speed from Taiwan too. 26 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: It takes two parties to take part in the conflict, 27 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 3: which is a big part of why we are not 28 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 3: expanding the data collection to Taiwan. 29 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: When you're looking at all this material, how fast does 30 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: your system analyze it? 31 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 3: Well, we catch all these content as it comes out, 32 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 3: and then we have in the back end a series 33 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 3: of models that ingest these data into the algorithms, and 34 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 3: then we do our calculations for different purposes. And for example, 35 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 3: we monitor Chinese officials their rights and fall in the 36 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 3: political fortune in Beijing. Oftentimes we catch ahead of time 37 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 3: the fall of key officials when they got into trouble 38 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 3: with the authorities. Which do you thinking that was showed 39 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 3: up in propaganda too or included a rise sometimes you 40 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 3: know you see black forces coming up in the scene 41 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 3: in Beijing. And the same is true for monitoring Chinese 42 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,519 Speaker 3: attitude towards Hong Kong, Taiwan, the US on a number 43 00:02:58,560 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 3: of issues. 44 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: Given this kind of quantitative analysis, are you sort of 45 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 1: looking for word patterns or what are you looking for? 46 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 3: The most important thing we look for is anomalies, things 47 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 3: that deviate from the trend or the baseline. And this 48 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 3: is very unique when it comes to analyzing authoritarian regimes 49 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 3: propaganda because we are not really talking about news, the 50 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 3: real fake news, which is propaganda coming out from regimes 51 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 3: like the Russians and Chinese. And with these regimes, we 52 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 3: should not think of their let's say, their newspaper or 53 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 3: their radio broadcast as facts. We should think of them 54 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 3: as the regime's attitude. So what's really important is to 55 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 3: measure to catch the moment these attitude changes, because oftentimes 56 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 3: indicate the intentions, Beijing's intention, mascots, intentions, and intention. 57 00:03:54,600 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: From that standpoint, how should Americans understand the Chinese Communist 58 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: parties view of Taiwan. 59 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 3: A good analogy to make it actually to look at 60 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 3: the CCP's attitude toward the student protesters going back to 61 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 3: nineteen eighty nine, the Tmn' Square protests, and that's an 62 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 3: excellent example. I mean, it's a tragedy, but it's also 63 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 3: a very good example to understand how propaganda operates. Because initially, 64 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 3: when the students were protesting in Beijing. They were advocating 65 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 3: for a more open government, open society to some extent, 66 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 3: beaging knowledge that they said, these people they came on 67 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 3: with good intention, the protesters, demonstrators, and they all have 68 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 3: a hope for a better future for the country. But 69 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 3: then when things got out of hand, it's actually necessary, 70 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 3: tragically necessary for the regime to change how they describe 71 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 3: these students, they would say, because if they're good people, 72 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 3: you can't crack down, you can't send in troops to 73 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 3: kill them, right, and so they had to become in 74 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 3: some sense, in the propaganda sense bad people. We saw 75 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 3: in nineteen eighty nine. Looking back is that the propaganda 76 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: dramatically changed how they describe these students. At the end, 77 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: they became like morons in the newspaper, and that's needed 78 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: before they could actually send in troops. The same logic 79 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 3: holds here when it comes to the Chinese stitude toward Taiwan, 80 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 3: because the ordinary Chinese people, they don't really hate the 81 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 3: people in Taiwan, but war or conflicts connectic. Conflict requires 82 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 3: negative sentiment, requires popular support for the regime to you know, 83 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 3: send missiles over. And so this is exactly what we're 84 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 3: monitoring is how the regime if at any point trying 85 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 3: to move the public attitude to the negative side toward Taiwan, 86 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 3: which is something that happened very significantly in nineteen ninety 87 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 3: five to nineteen ninety six for the last Taiwan stract crisis. 88 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 3: I know, mister speaker, you had some personal connection to 89 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 3: this episode, because I know you went to Taiwan the 90 00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 3: year after. 91 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 2: Is that nineteen ninety seven. 92 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: I think it was in ninety seven, But in ninety 93 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: six I was on TV saying that President Clinton was 94 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: right to send a second aircraft carrier into the streets 95 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: and that we were sending a clear signal to Beijing 96 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 1: that in fact, we would fight if they tried to 97 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: invade Taiwan. When I visited, it was a fascinating experience. 98 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: But as you look at the data sets you're getting 99 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: what can you tell? For example, the military leaders are 100 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: making predictions, and it seems to me that at times 101 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: they're predicted that oh this is Chinese commiss military leaders 102 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: their predictions would imply some kind of combat in the 103 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: not very distant future. 104 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely right, mister speaker. But the same is true 105 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,679 Speaker 3: for American military leaders too. They're all sorts of estimates, 106 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 3: bry predictions about when something like it would happen some 107 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 3: set twenty twenty four. 108 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 2: Luckily that has passed. Now a lot of eyes are 109 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,239 Speaker 2: on twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty nine. 110 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 3: I think the Chinese witterer leaders did the saying, but 111 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 3: I think a lot of these military assessments they focus 112 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 3: more on the capabilities, like when China has the capability 113 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 3: to overtake Taiwan, but that depends on how much interference 114 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 3: we see from other parties such as the US, the 115 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 3: rest of the Western. 116 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: World, and maybe Japan. 117 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,679 Speaker 3: So all these are important variables to the capability portion. 118 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 3: But I think from again the data, we see more 119 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 3: of them. 120 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: Do you see the Chinese communists that are showing up 121 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: in your data sets becoming more bella coost and more 122 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: leaning towards a military operation, Not. 123 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 2: In a very recent month. 124 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 3: So we developed this AI algorithm to learn from what 125 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 3: happened back in nineteen ninety six, arguably the most intensive 126 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 3: crisis in recent times, and then we use what we 127 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 3: learned from that episode to monitor subsequently former Speaker Pelosi's 128 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 3: visit to Taiwan a couple of years ago, as well 129 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 3: as the meeting between the Taiwanese president and former Speaker 130 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy. What appears to be the pattern now is 131 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 3: that there are strong reactions. I think when how he 132 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 3: placed US officials visit Taiwan a meet with the Taiwanese leaders. 133 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 3: But the magnitude has decreased. 134 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: It's almost like what was initially a crisis has now 135 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: begun to be They grumble, but it's now sort of 136 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: normal to have visits. I remember originally, boy, it was 137 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: like a giant crisis. Even to land in San Francisco 138 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: or Los Angeles was a huge deal. Analysis kind of 139 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: background grumbling. 140 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 3: Right, if you compare from speaker to speaker, right from you, 141 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 3: mister speaker to Speaker Pelosi, speaker of MC coffee, the 142 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 3: magnitude of reactions from Beijing has declined, which actually shows 143 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 3: a lot of value of demonstrating American strength in this situation. 144 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 3: When we show strength, Beijing will think twice about how 145 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 3: aggressive they want to be. And that's really the purpose. 146 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 3: I image of your visit to Taiwan too. 147 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 2: Back in the days. 148 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 1: You've developed this large language model. Does it actually report 149 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: back to you in Chinese or does it translated into English. 150 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 3: It reports back to me in Chinese, which is where 151 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 3: my human intelligence comes in, is that I would interpret 152 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 3: that in ingresh writing to our audience as our readers. 153 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 3: But the machine is clellly operating in the Chinese language, 154 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 3: not only Chinese language, actually the Chinese culture and Chinese 155 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 3: way of news reporting in the system. Because that's alway 156 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 3: ingesting to the model. 157 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: As an amateur, did I read about the idea that 158 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: when you have an artificial intelligence model like yours, it 159 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: then has to go through a pret being trained. 160 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: What does that mean? 161 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 3: Let's start with what's called large language models, which is 162 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 3: basically models built on every word ever other on the Internet, 163 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 3: possibly the big companies they can possibly find right which 164 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 3: include Chinese language. But that gigantic lake up data, if 165 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 3: you will, it's not particularly helpful when it comes to China, 166 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,959 Speaker 3: for example, of China versus Taiwan, because it's a very 167 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 3: specific context. 168 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 2: So the training in. 169 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 3: This case means if you just ask a question to 170 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 3: the AI in Chinese, it would respond to you, but 171 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 3: it will be based on the vast number of Chinese 172 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 3: language material on the Internet, which included Chinese language that 173 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 3: were data spoken on the US Internet. Because they are 174 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 3: Chinese immigrants here, but their Chinese language content is very 175 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 3: different from Chinese language content coming out from the CCP. 176 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 3: In our case, when we do these projects, training means 177 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 3: to steer the AI to focus more on content in 178 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 3: the propaganda coming up on the propaganda system, So pay 179 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 3: more attention to those and ignore whoever you know Chinese 180 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: immigrants in San Francisco are talking about in blogs. 181 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 2: So that's not really rather than to the question at hand. 182 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: So, as I understand it, as you were developing this, 183 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: you actually were training it using the people's daily articles 184 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: during the nineteen ninety five Taiwan Straight Crisis, which led 185 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: to military escalation by China, Taiwan and the US. I'm 186 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: curious as you went through that assessment, did you learn anything. 187 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: Did you see the nineteen ninety five crisis any differently 188 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: after you got the report back from the machine. 189 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 3: I think what surprised me the most after seeing what 190 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 3: the machine returns is how much the road the US 191 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 3: plays in the escalation in the whole crisis. Fundamentally, Taiwan 192 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,199 Speaker 3: is an issue of reunifying with Taiwan is almost a 193 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 3: requirement for the CCP region. So that in our assessment 194 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 3: remains the number one most important factor, but the number 195 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 3: two most important factor was the Chinese attitude toward the 196 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 3: United States, and that changed drastically during the crisis too. 197 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 2: So it's not really an issue. 198 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 3: Taiwan is not really an issue just between the mainland 199 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 3: China and Taiwan. It's how the Beijing preceved strength of 200 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 3: the West, which goes back to the point of when 201 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 3: we demonstrate strength, Beijing's reaction to these, even just bilateral 202 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 3: visits between the US and Taiwan less and less significantly 203 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 3: over the years in recent years, I think that should 204 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 3: be counted as an achievement of our foreign policy rather 205 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 3: than weakness in any sense. 206 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: So, in a sense, a little bit less Bella Coost, 207 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 1: a little bit less on the edge of war than 208 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,199 Speaker 1: they were in ninety five ninety six. 209 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, if we're just comparing from like a sets from 210 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 3: speaker to the speaker in the last few episodes, it 211 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 3: seems to be the case. But I also wonder it's 212 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 3: hard to distinguish is to what extent the weakness now 213 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 3: in Beijin comes from the weakness of the Chinese economy 214 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 3: or the Chinese development stage, so to speak, which really 215 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 3: has been having a really hard time in the last 216 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 3: few years too. So the difference between Colosi and mccaffee, 217 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 3: for example, could be to some extent due to the 218 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 3: weakness of the Chinese economy that's trending down since the 219 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 3: COVID lockdown was lifted in much of China. 220 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 1: The process that we're in the middle of right now, 221 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: Jiji panclearly has faced with. Even before Trump and the Terrified, 222 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy was in significant trouble, both because the 223 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: one child policy has now led to a dramatic decline 224 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 1: in the workforce, because they had overbuilt entire towns, not 225 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: just overbuilt buildings, but entire towns. They had over extended 226 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: themselves in terms of internal lending. That could either lead 227 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: him to be more aggressive so people would pay attention 228 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: to and rally around nationalism, or he could lead them 229 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: to be more cautious because he would feel like he 230 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 1: doesn't have a stable and solid a base. What's your 231 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: handsh of how those two way out well. 232 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 3: I think in the end, an actual kinetic conflict or 233 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 3: even an invasion would have to be an outcome of 234 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 3: two things. One is the Beijing's strength internally, because that 235 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 3: has to deal with capabilities. But the other intention how 236 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 3: desperate Shei Jimpin is in overtaking Taiwan. 237 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 2: Every time I think. 238 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 3: About this, I go back to the notion of legacy. 239 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 3: Political legacy a lot in the Chinese context. If you 240 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 3: compare Cjimpin with his predecessors, including those you met mister 241 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 3: speaker in Beijing, Jian Jamin and his supportinates at the time. 242 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 3: So if you compare for something from Janjumin to Hu 243 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 3: Jintao to announce C. Jimpin, you could name a few 244 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 3: things as great as a achievements by Janatamine for example, 245 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 3: right leading China into the wto taking back Hong Kong 246 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 3: and Macau holding the Beijing Olympics to some extent that 247 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 3: went to Puljintail as well. But if you think about 248 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 3: cj he really didn't have much achievements so far. It's 249 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 3: running the economy down to the ditch and many other 250 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 3: things down to the ditch too, And so one argument 251 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 3: to be made is that he is desperate in looking 252 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 3: for achievements, particularly when his next five year term comes up, 253 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 3: which is twenty twenty seven. I think that has a 254 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 3: lot to do with other assessment about why the timeline 255 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 3: has to be twenty twenty seven, because by twenty twenty 256 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 3: seven he will be seeking another run, right, And even 257 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 3: though China does not have democracy, popular support still matters 258 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 3: to him, and the lack of it matters even more. 259 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 3: And so one could make the argument that taking back 260 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 3: Taiwan in the timely manner would matter a lot to 261 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 3: his political legacy, because so far he has none. So 262 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 3: that's I think a major factor. But of course he's 263 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 3: not going to be able to do that if the 264 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 3: Chinese military power and economic power continue to decline, which 265 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 3: is why I think it's very important to continue to 266 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 3: monitor the situation that weighing these two factors over the 267 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 3: next few years to see which one comes out dominant. 268 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 1: Do you see in that sense as being almost like 269 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: an American politician in that he wants a way out 270 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: which gives him dignity and makes him important, but he 271 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: may not want to risk the destruction of the regime 272 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: in order to get there. 273 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 3: Absolutely, I think in the end, as we always say, right, 274 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 3: foreign policy fundamentally is domestic policy, and domestic policy fundamentally 275 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 3: is about the legacy or legitimacy. Right in a normal 276 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 3: democratic country, legacy takes a form of having more votes 277 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 3: right in the next election and more support for the 278 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: party if you do well. 279 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 2: But in China, I think the bar is much lower. 280 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 3: But if the legacy is low enough, it might tricker 281 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 3: a lot of opposite even from within the leads. 282 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: Right. 283 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 3: We have seen that actually during the COVID lockdown period 284 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 3: when people couldn't stand it, you know, we see university 285 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 3: students coming out to protest too, and that makes people 286 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 3: think again to look back to find a similarity to 287 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 3: for example, student protesters in km and Square. So all 288 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 3: these are very unpleasant images for the CCP. 289 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: One of the things that you came up with that 290 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: I was surprised by is that your analysis of mass 291 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: scale of information shows a real decline in reporting about 292 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 1: the outside world by the People's Daily that is just 293 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: less and less important than the story. What do you 294 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 1: think is going on? 295 00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 3: We actually just publish a journal article about this journal 296 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 3: of Contemporary China, where we actually track how the CCP 297 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 3: mentions all the different countries including Taiwan, the US and 298 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 3: everywhere else, versus any content that's purely domestic. 299 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 2: So the CCP's. 300 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 3: Vision, I think, in the last almost twenty years now 301 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 3: has increasingly narrowed, so their eyes are more on domestic 302 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 3: issues less on the outside world. Initially, I think that's 303 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 3: because the trading with a lot of outside world, engaging 304 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 3: with a lot of outside world becomes less critical, Like, 305 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 3: for example, they used to emphasize Europe a lot, but 306 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 3: not right now. I think CCP doesn't think Europe is 307 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 3: relevant because Europe has been in some sort of decline, 308 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 3: right But in later years, even the attention to the 309 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 3: US has declined, and I think that it's not really 310 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 3: an indication of the America in decline, is in indication 311 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 3: that Hijinpin himself is more and more narrow minded. And 312 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,719 Speaker 3: I think that's a very dangerous situation to be in 313 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 3: because when you don't even report to the outside world, 314 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 3: not to say the reporting is accurate, but when you 315 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 3: report even to a lesser extent, it makes. 316 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 2: All the elites in the society. 317 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 3: And everyone else in China more nearrow minded, because that's 318 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 3: the only source already right to the outside world, and 319 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 3: even that is not covering a lot. 320 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 1: It seems to me like they're beginning to move more 321 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: and more inwardly oriented and less or less aggressively trying 322 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 1: to become a worldwide power because there just have too 323 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: many domestic problems. I mean, does that seem accurate to 324 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: you to. 325 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 2: A large extent. 326 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 3: That's not the same to say China's actual activities in 327 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 3: terms of engaging with the outside world are necessarily in decline. 328 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 2: We have seen the continued effort to boost. 329 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 3: Up the Baton Road initiatives for example, right China is 330 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 3: still trying to forge all these collaborations with the Baton 331 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 3: Road countries in Asia, in Africa, in South America. But 332 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 3: the way they approach that this projects has also changed. 333 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 3: In the past they emphasized more on economic development, but 334 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,479 Speaker 3: now they emphasize more integrating them into the Chinese values 335 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 3: because they come up with this value system that they 336 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 3: basically try to turn all these other countries to the 337 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,919 Speaker 3: same way of thinking as the CCP has engaging. So 338 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 3: that's a narrow minded vision, not necessarily a narrow minded activity. 339 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: It's always struck me that they're so good at running 340 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: into totalitarian system and they've developed all of these cameras 341 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: and facial recognition and massive ability to track a billion 342 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: people that if I were a local dictator, I might 343 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 1: like to have the Chinese come and show me how 344 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: to make sure that I'm totally secure, and in that sense, 345 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 1: they may have something to offer that we don't have. 346 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: Well, actually, the Chinese have offered that it's a speaker 347 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 3: to a lot of developing countries. 348 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: The Chinese technologies had. 349 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 3: Over the years power to many surveillance systems in African countries, 350 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 3: and some of these episodes have come up in the 351 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 3: news reporting on how they helped these non democratic regions 352 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 3: to monitor their own people. Which is why I think 353 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 3: in the US is really a justified concern on a 354 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 3: lot of technologies we have here because they could potentially 355 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 3: and some did, provide the capabilities for beaging to monitor us. 356 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 2: And we'll talk about Hawwei. We're talking about TikTok. 357 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: TikTok's a perfect example Huawei, which is one of the 358 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: major failures I had in the first Trump administration. I 359 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: kept trying to warn them that Huawei is very dangerous 360 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:39,120 Speaker 1: and very powerful and currently very successful worldwide. It provides 361 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: access for the Chinese communist that is I think very sobering. 362 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,199 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I think there are two layers of the 363 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 2: dangers here. 364 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 3: TikTok is a speaker, it's one the proper ganda through content, 365 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 3: so to create a pro China content right to try 366 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 3: to influence online. But HAWA is a vulnerability where information 367 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 3: itself could be tapped into by the CCP, and we 368 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 3: actually have that with TikTok too, because the way TikTok 369 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 3: collects information is down to your fingertip, like how you 370 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 3: scroll on your screen and how you select content. And 371 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,360 Speaker 3: in my opinion, it's actually very damaging in the longer 372 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 3: term because when apps are able to monitor our behavior, 373 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 3: it would be able to learn our preferences to how 374 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,120 Speaker 3: we think about things, or how American voters think about 375 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 3: different niches, and knowing that it's incredibly valuable because that's 376 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 3: a huge intelligence. 377 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 2: It has a huge value on intelligence. 378 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: I buy a lot of books on Amazon, and it 379 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: now in two it's what I might be interested in 380 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: based on my behavior. So the giantic system that Amazon 381 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: has is sort of studying me and figuring out what 382 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 1: to offer me in a way that is on the 383 00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,679 Speaker 1: one hand, is very practical and very helpful. On the 384 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 1: other end, and it's a little scary. 385 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 3: It's actually very scary. Even Amazon could potentially learn your schedule, 386 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 3: mister speaker, like when you would scroll on the app 387 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 3: to shop they would figure out your sleep patterns, you 388 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 3: know when you couldn't sleep in the middle of the 389 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 3: night and you're trying to buy some gadget on Amazon. 390 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 3: Now imagine all that that every company in the world 391 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 3: is doing that. But imagine a world where every company 392 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 3: submits that information to the CCP. That's their vision of governance, 393 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 3: the global governance, and we should try very hard to 394 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 3: prevent that from happening. 395 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: So do you think you'll extend this new methodology to 396 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: looking at other countries? 397 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 2: We have. 398 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 3: Last year we put out an algorithm that monitors came 399 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 3: young to North Korea, So we have gathered the North 400 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 3: Korean content and we made the similar algorithm to detect 401 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 3: whether kingdom or is thinking differently. 402 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 1: Given how closed the dictatorship is. Is that very revealing 403 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 1: doing it that way? I mean, do you pick up 404 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 1: queues and indications? 405 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 2: Yeah? 406 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 3: I wasn't sure when I started the project, but it 407 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 3: performs surprisingly well. For example, we picked up signs of 408 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 3: significant nuclear weapon tests shortly before in some ways that 409 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 3: you somehow just changed the tone anten on their front page. 410 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 2: So that model we did was as off last year. 411 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 3: So this year we're going to random the model live 412 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 3: in the sense that we'll be like getting the content 413 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 3: from opinion every day and updating the algorithm every day. 414 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 2: So that's one of our next projects too. 415 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: Ye when you're doing some fascinating stuff, and I hope 416 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: maybe an ear we can come back and you'll read 417 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 1: us into all the different things you're learning, because you've 418 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 1: found a way to really have a big impact. 419 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 3: I think thank you, mister Seeker for saying that I'd 420 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 3: love to come back. Also, let me clarify the AI 421 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 3: is doing most of the work now, it's no longer me, 422 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 3: which is a very reassuring development. 423 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: I am personally happy to still believe that the human 424 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 1: had a role in this thing. Makes me feel better. 425 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,199 Speaker 1: Waite Fun, I want to thank you for joining me 426 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: and helping us better understand both your system, which is amazing, 427 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: and how to analyze and think about China's plans for 428 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 1: the Taiwan Straits. Our listeners can follow your work by 429 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 1: visiting the America First Policy Institute's website at America First 430 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: Policy dot com. And it's really been very enlightening and 431 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: I really appreciate you visiting us again. 432 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 2: Thanks again for having me Missless speak here. 433 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest doctor Waifong Zhong. You can 434 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 1: read his new paper predicting Taiwan's straight crisis using propaganda, 435 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: a new open source method on our show page at 436 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: newtsworld dot com. Newtworld is produced by Ganglish three sixty 437 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 1: and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guernsey Sloman. Our researcher 438 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 1: is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was created 439 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: by Steve Penley. Special thanks the team at Gangwish three sixty. 440 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 1: If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to 441 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars and 442 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: give us a review so all this can learn what 443 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 1: it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign 444 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 1: up for my three free weekly columns at gnglishwe sixty 445 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 1: dot com slash newsletter. I'm new Gnglish. This is Newtsworld.