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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're sitting up to catch.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate Kabaki.

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Speaker 3: Want to pay and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast, NFL

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Speaker 1: wild Card Weekend Betting Edition. I am Chris Raybond. I'll

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Speaker 1: be joined shortly by my guys Stucky. We'll break down

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Speaker 1: all four games and the best bets for each game

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Speaker 1: on the pod. Just want to remind you, guys real quick,

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Speaker 1: be sure to download the Action Network app to get

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Speaker 1: real time odds, live scores, and track your bet.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna do the six pack a little different this week.

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Speaker 1: We have two days worth the game, so we'll still

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Speaker 1: do a six pack with three picks each. They can

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Speaker 1: be sized, they can be totals, they can be whatever

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Speaker 1: else for that third bet. As long as we do

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Speaker 1: one side and one total, let's get.

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Speaker 3: Right to it.

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Speaker 1: I'm welcome and stuck, Prime Minister, Degenerate Nation, Happy New Year, Stuck,

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Speaker 1: what's going on what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Brother down in Naples, Florida. Happy New Year. I actually

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Speaker 2: got married yesterday officially.

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Speaker 3: Whoa, so congrats again.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was nothing big. We decided to do it

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Speaker 2: on a whim. We were gonna do it in Vegas

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Speaker 2: in July, so we just kind of made it official

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Speaker 2: New Year's Eve anniversary. And yeah, we love a celebration

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Speaker 2: in Vegas. There'll be more details to come there. All

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Speaker 2: listeners are welcome. Yeah, ready to get into the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Had a rough end of the season over the final

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Speaker 2: three weeks. Last week just felt like it was torture

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Speaker 2: and no matter what you bet, I think you ended

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Speaker 2: up being up to one and so our score is

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Speaker 2: fifty one to fifty. But like you could have swept.

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Speaker 2: I mean you had the Broncos. That was vicious Falcons.

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Speaker 2: I mean you're the Bucks. I had the Bucks under

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Speaker 2: so we both lost on a pick six to the

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Speaker 2: first play of overtime. The biggest shocking part of Sunday

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Speaker 2: was the Patriots going down. I mean, oh my god,

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Speaker 2: your biggest upsets is nineteenninety five. All you has to

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Speaker 2: do is beat the Dolphins at home to get a bye,

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Speaker 2: and you can't do it. I know we talked about

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Speaker 2: Chiefs futures earlier, so if some of you got that in,

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's enormous for them and something that looked

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Speaker 2: like it wasn't possible at all. So yeah, I'm ready

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Speaker 2: to get into the wild call weekend here Thursday for action.

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Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll start us off to spicings up for the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: We are going to open up the six pack, which

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Speaker 1: is normally just us picking three sides and then a

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Speaker 1: total waiter on to the essentially whole group of bets

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Speaker 1: that you could potentially pick, so the whole kind of

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Speaker 1: menu here. As long as we pick one side in

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Speaker 1: one total.

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Speaker 2: We'll do it.

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Speaker 1: The first pick will be worth three points, the second

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Speaker 1: pick will be worth two, and a last will be

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Speaker 1: worth one. And I'm gonna go over in the Viking Saints.

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Speaker 1: It's currently at forty nine and a half. I got

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Speaker 1: it at forty eight and a half. I think the

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Speaker 1: Vikings are also a little undervalued here, and I think

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Speaker 1: they're undervalued based on their offense and how much they

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Speaker 1: can score. So on the other end, just looking at

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Speaker 1: the Saints in what they can do I mean, Drew Brees.

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Speaker 3: Over these last few weeks nearly flawless.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that the Saints Vikings have a defensive

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Speaker 1: struggle in this spot. That generally isn't the case when

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Speaker 1: you look at these type of spots in the postseason.

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Speaker 1: Drew Brees in the Superdome, the over is five and

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Speaker 1: two in his career with the Saints at home in

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Speaker 1: the postseason, and then you look at of course the

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Speaker 1: indoor games in the postseason tend to lead to higher

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Speaker 1: scoring affairs.

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Speaker 3: You have twenty four and eight in the.

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Speaker 1: Postseason when the total is at least forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 3: And the reason I try to break it.

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Speaker 1: Down by the actual total is if you look at

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Speaker 1: totals forty five below, it's pretty much five hundred in

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Speaker 1: these postseason Dome overs. But the significance of forty five

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Speaker 1: and a half, if that's where you start to get

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Speaker 1: to an above average NFL score, So forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 3: It's twenty four and eight.

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Speaker 1: Since you know, dating back, that's a seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: hit rate. But I just think that this Vikings defense

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Speaker 1: isn't what it once was. We always talk about David

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Speaker 1: Rhodes and he's.

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Speaker 3: Kind of fallen off.

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Speaker 1: I think the Sames will be able to do what

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Speaker 1: they do with Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara has looked better

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Speaker 1: over these past few weeks, Traycon Smith coming on strong,

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Speaker 1: giving them a better option I think than Ted Ginn

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Speaker 1: at that number two receiver spot, and then Taysom Hill

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Speaker 1: he's also come on strong and given him more at

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Speaker 1: receiver than gain as well. So I think this offense

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Speaker 1: is rounding in a shape pretty well for this time

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Speaker 1: of year, and I would probably take this one up

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Speaker 1: to up to fifty one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this game, this is a really interesting game. I

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Speaker 2: think I would lean with you on the over, although

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Speaker 2: I do have a couple of qu questions, mainly with

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Speaker 2: the health of the Vikings. So how healthy is Adam Feeling?

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Speaker 2: I mean, just when he's healthy, that offense is so

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Speaker 2: much more dynamic because it's really hard to shut down

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Speaker 2: both of their top receivers, and you know their tight

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Speaker 2: ends are in play as well. And then the weird

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Speaker 2: thing with Feeling is he's been playing, yeah, but not

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Speaker 2: really productive, and now he doesn't look right, So why

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Speaker 2: would they be playing him though? So I don't know,

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Speaker 2: but it's very odd to me, I mean, because like,

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Speaker 2: if they were just limiting him, why not just give

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Speaker 2: him some reps in Week seventeen. But they played in

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Speaker 2: the least couple weeks, and it's an injury where you

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Speaker 2: can go at any time. I'll pause there to have

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Speaker 2: any thoughts on Feeling because he's important to that offense.

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Speaker 2: If he's fully healthy, it's a different offense.

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Speaker 1: So in that game against Green Bay, which was essentially

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Speaker 1: the last one he played, the rest of course their

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Speaker 1: starters in Week seventeen, just watching him play, he didn't

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Speaker 1: look too out of sorts as much as Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 1: just looked out of sorts dealing with that Green Bay

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Speaker 1: pass rush. So I mean, it's hard to tell because

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Speaker 1: of course that game I think it was four targets

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Speaker 1: and no catches. For Feeling comes on the heels of

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Speaker 1: like a three catch game in his first game back.

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Speaker 1: So it could have just been a situation where tough matchup,

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Speaker 1: which will happen, But it's hard to think that he

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be at his healthiest point in I would say

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Speaker 1: since he first got hurt, just because they did wrest

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Speaker 1: him in Week seventeen, I don't think he looked too

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Speaker 1: bad in Week sixteen, so I'm under the I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of going with the assumption that he is relatively healthy.

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Speaker 3: Like I don't. It's hard to think otherwise.

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Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook, you know, I think he should be back

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Speaker 1: as well, and you know, I think they were holding

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Speaker 1: guys out for this purpose, but you know, yeah, that

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Speaker 1: does effect obviously the game in a big way because

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Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs would you would expect him to see shadow

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Speaker 1: coverage from Marshawn Lattimore, and Lattimore for the most part,

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Speaker 1: has shut down opposing number one receivers. He's had some

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Speaker 1: rough games, so I think there is kind of a

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Speaker 1: little volatility there even with Diggs because he's a talented guy.

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Speaker 3: DeLand is a key and I think it was.

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Speaker 1: A tough match for Cousins that contributed to the last game,

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Speaker 1: But obviously hard to tell until we see him productive again,

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Speaker 1: which hasn't happened in essentially three four months.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned is Dalvin Cook, So how healthy is he?

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Speaker 2: I would assume that he'll be okay, and if he is,

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Speaker 2: I think that he can have a big day. And

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Speaker 2: that's I mean, that's how the Vikings, that's the focal

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Speaker 2: point of their offense. And you know, this is a

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Speaker 2: Vikings offensive line that is not great at pass blocking.

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Speaker 2: Other than Brian O'Neill that tackle, they only give up

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Speaker 2: one sackle year, one of ten tackles to do that.

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Speaker 2: So he I think can match up pretty well with

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Speaker 2: Cam Jordan, which is a key, you know, with that

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Speaker 2: Saints pass rush. But with in regards to the run,

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Speaker 2: you know, the Saints were okay defending the run this year,

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Speaker 2: but if you look over the last few weeks, they

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Speaker 2: really didn't playny When they only played Tennessee, Henry sat

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Speaker 2: and Tennessee still could have won that game. But these

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Speaker 2: are the games that they played without Davenport and Rankins,

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Speaker 2: and you know, I think that they will miss both

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Speaker 2: of them in this game. And Cook, if you know,

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Speaker 2: if assuming he's healthy, behind a really good run blocking

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Speaker 2: offensive line, I think is going to have a big

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Speaker 2: day on the ground if Dealing is healthy. You have

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Speaker 2: I think these are all ex giants. All the ex

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Speaker 2: giants are in the secondary now, Genoris Jenkins out there.

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Speaker 2: You know, you have Eli Apple. I think PJ. Williams

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Speaker 2: is going to go. So there's some questions, some health

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Speaker 2: questions there, but you know, it's it's a secondary that

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Speaker 2: hasn't played together a ton as a whole all year,

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Speaker 2: which could be a concern for the Saints. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: and I agree on the Saints. On the Saints side

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Speaker 2: of the ball, this is a unit that's just rolling.

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Speaker 2: And when you look at the Vikings defense, and you know,

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Speaker 2: there's very weak areas and very strong areas. So their

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Speaker 2: defensive ends Everson Griffin and Daniel Hunter are excellent, but

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Speaker 2: they're going up against Armstead Ramchack, who are two of

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Speaker 2: the best tackles in the NFL, and I think they

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Speaker 2: can take them away. Plus, you know, and this is

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Speaker 2: a Vikings team, it's top five and the Justin Zachery.

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Speaker 2: They get a lot of pressure, that's what they want

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Speaker 2: to do. But Breeze gets rid of the ball quicker

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Speaker 2: than any quarterback in the NFL. And you know, this

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Speaker 2: is a true West Coast offense. It's a lot of

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Speaker 2: short passes efficient. So like that, I think that the

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Speaker 2: way that the Saints operate the gates what the Vikings

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Speaker 2: want to do from a pressure standpoint. Now, their linebackers

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Speaker 2: and safeties are excellent. You know, Eric Kendricks has been

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Speaker 2: one of the and I believe he's healthy enough to

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Speaker 2: plays one of the best linebackers in the NFL. And

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Speaker 2: they wreck number one against tight ends. They're good against backs,

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Speaker 2: and I think Kamara is getting healthier, which also helps

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Speaker 2: the Saints. But you know, taking away Cook is something

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Speaker 2: that can do. But they're just not going to be

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Speaker 2: able to cover. So they're really strong on the edge

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Speaker 2: and then at linebacker and safety and coverage, but their

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Speaker 2: corners are just and mainly it's Xavier Roads. He's just

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Speaker 2: a shell of himself. And this is a guy in

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Speaker 2: his prime that could match up with Michael Thomas. He's

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Speaker 2: a very physical corner that embraces coming up and playing

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Speaker 2: you tight. In two matchups with Michael Thomas, Michael Thomas

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Speaker 2: had five catches on eleven targets for sixty eight yards

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Speaker 2: in two games. And you know, so, but this is

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Speaker 2: not the same Roads as before. I don't think Roads

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Speaker 2: actually played in their last meeting. So I think on

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Speaker 2: the outside, they're not whether whoever it is. If it's

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Speaker 2: if it's Roads, if it's Wanes, if it's Alexander, you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't think that these corners can match up. So

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Speaker 2: the short passing attack of the Saints I think is

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Speaker 2: going to be able to move the ball. Where you

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Speaker 2: can disrupt the Saints offense, and we've only seen it

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Speaker 2: a couple of times this year, is if you can

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Speaker 2: get a ton of pressure right away up the middle,

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Speaker 2: you know, up the middle and blow up the pocket.

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Speaker 2: If you go back to that Falcons loss, when Breeze

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Speaker 2: got sacked like seven times, it was you know, Grady

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Speaker 2: Jarrett and McKinley and all those guys. They were blowing

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Speaker 2: up the middle of that offensive line, which is the

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Speaker 2: weak area that offensive line. But if you look at

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Speaker 2: the Vikings, that's not really their strength. You know, this

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Speaker 2: is a team that's you know, if you look at

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Speaker 2: some of the advanced stats, they're twenty fifth in lineyards,

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth and stuff right, and you know, bottom three

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Speaker 2: if you look just in the middle of the defensive

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Speaker 2: line in both categories. So I don't think that they

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Speaker 2: can really disrupt. They try to get their disruption on

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Speaker 2: the outside with Breeze getting rid of the ball so quickly,

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Speaker 2: and I just think the Saints will be able to

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Speaker 2: move the ball, and I think the Vikings will as well,

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Speaker 2: assuming health. All right, So for my first pick, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to go with an old reliable of mine and

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Speaker 2: go roll with a teaser. I am going with the

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Speaker 2: Eagles teasing them over seven. So Eagles plus seven and

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Speaker 2: a half and then the Saints down to minus two.

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Speaker 2: You know, I just think that at home right now,

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Speaker 2: look this Saints, the Saints team, well, I think as

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Speaker 2: of right now, there's still some questions on the defense.

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Speaker 2: For me, how's that secondary going to come together, and

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Speaker 2: how's that defensive line with some of the injuries they've

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Speaker 2: had going to perform, you know in the postseason. But

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Speaker 2: this team on offense is just I mean, what do

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Speaker 2: I think They're averaging thirty five points per game over

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Speaker 2: the last six or seven I mean, it's and the

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Speaker 2: one game they've lost is was like forty eight forty

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Speaker 2: six to the forty nine ers. So this offense is

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Speaker 2: just a different level. The special teams is playing really well.

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Speaker 2: They're at home in one of the toughest places to play,

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Speaker 2: and if you look back, the Saints really could have

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Speaker 2: went to the Super Bowl the past two years. You know,

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Speaker 2: you're talking about the Minneapolis Miracle when they lost that game,

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Speaker 2: and then last year there was a PI that they

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Speaker 2: didn't call in the NFL changed the whole rule, and

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Speaker 2: then they didn't enforce it last week to give the

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Speaker 2: Saints a bye, which is very ironic. So I just

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Speaker 2: can't see this team losing this game. Can I see

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Speaker 2: the Vikings cover? I mean I make it right around

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Speaker 2: to touch on. Absolutely? And can the Vikings get in

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Speaker 2: the back door? Absolutely? Can the Vikings, you know, offense

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Speaker 2: score like we just talked about the over Absolutely, But

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Speaker 2: I just don't see the Saints losing this game. And

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Speaker 2: one thing that I think will put it over the

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Speaker 2: top is a coaching advantage. Zimber's teams historically are good

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Speaker 2: on the road as underdogs, but like just covering, you know,

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Speaker 2: as far as winning the game. He's a very conservative coach.

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Speaker 2: And you know in these huge games against elite teams,

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Speaker 2: you can't take a conservative approach here. And Peyton is

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Speaker 2: a coach that won't in the playoffs. You know, he

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Speaker 2: is a guy who will run fake punts, will run

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Speaker 2: trick plays. You'll see an on sidekick from him, as

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Speaker 2: we saw in the Super Bowl. He's the coach that

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Speaker 2: you want in the postseason. If I want Zimmer to

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Speaker 2: cover for me, fine, and you know he's gonna play conservative.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to maybe ruin the game for me.

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Speaker 2: And then on top of that, you could have cousins,

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Speaker 2: you could have bad cousins. Who shows up, you know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's a people always say primetime cousins. Maybe it's

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Speaker 2: just a pressure thing, you know what, all he knows,

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Speaker 2: all eyes or him. I don't know what it is.

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Speaker 2: But there's gonna be a lot of pressure. There's gonna

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Speaker 2: be a lot of noise. It seems like you either

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Speaker 2: get bad cousins or good cousins. You can tell from

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Speaker 2: the start which ones it's going to be. So there's

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Speaker 2: always a risk that you get bad cousins too. But

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Speaker 2: I can't see the Saints losing this game. As far

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Speaker 2: as the Eagles, you know, catching over seven and a half, obviously,

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Speaker 2: I always love it. That's basically the reasoning behind here.

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Speaker 2: But the Seahawks, they're just a fraud. We've said it

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Speaker 2: all year. They're on the road here. Their defense is

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Speaker 2: really bad. They also lost Hendrick. They also don't probably

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Speaker 2: won't have digs. Their corners have been bad, they don't

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Speaker 2: get any pressure, you know. And then on the offensive

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, they have injuries on the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: they're running back cores depleted Marshall Lynch is still not

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Speaker 2: up to speed as you saw last week. This game

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Speaker 2: should be close, come right down to the wire in

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Speaker 2: Philly and a just a raucous environment. So I love

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Speaker 2: catching over seven here with the Eagles, a line I took.

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Speaker 2: I took Seattle plus three small in one of the

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Speaker 2: shops that I open a new move. But I love

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Speaker 2: teasing the Eagles over here over seven.

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Speaker 1: Even the Saints down, I think is key because that's

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Speaker 1: the you know right now, it's sitting at eight, seeing

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Speaker 1: eight and a half in some spots, that's just a

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Speaker 1: big number to cover. That's something where you know, if

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Speaker 1: it's the postseason, these things are you don't expect the

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Speaker 1: Vikings offense to kind of just completely go away even

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Speaker 1: if they're down big. You know, you wouldn't expect them

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Speaker 1: to lose by more than a score. You wouldn't really

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Speaker 1: expect anybody to lose by more than a score, I

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Speaker 1: think in the postseason in general.

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Speaker 3: And then yeah, the Seahawks are in.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I wouldn't be surprised, to be honest, anything

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Speaker 1: that goes down in either of those games, because we've

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Speaker 1: just seen so much ridiculousness involving the Saints and Vikings

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Speaker 1: period and then with Russell Wilson in the postseason. So

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Speaker 1: I do think that's the way to to bet those games.

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Speaker 1: If you're gonna if you're gonna tease anything. I think

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Speaker 1: those are the two games that I've looked to I

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Speaker 1: guess what I'm saying.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and something to keep it by with

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Speaker 2: the Eagles Seahawks. I mean the Seahawks. They this is

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Speaker 2: a team that can't pass block right. It's the third

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Speaker 2: worst pass block unit in the NFL by sub advanced metrics.

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Speaker 2: So and you know they have especially up the middle.

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Speaker 2: They have the injuries now Dwayne Brown their center. And

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Speaker 2: this is an Eagles defensive line that I think is

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Speaker 2: going to dominate this game, is going to dominate the front.

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Speaker 2: You saw it last week against the Giants. By the way,

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Speaker 2: speaking of the Giants last nine and seventeen to win

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Speaker 2: it all. The Eagles are nine and seven to twenty

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Speaker 2: eleven New York Giants. But the I mean the Eagles

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Speaker 2: do have issues as well. You know, Brandon Brooks, their

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Speaker 2: star guard, he's out for the year, Lane Johnson questionable

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Speaker 2: if whole play, and then there's also Zach Ertz. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't look like he's going to play. And you know,

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Speaker 2: back when these two teams played each other back in November,

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Speaker 2: Seattle won seventeen to nine. They were a one point

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Speaker 2: favorite in that game. You know, but this is a

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Speaker 2: team that had I think Penny ran for like one

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty yards in that game. They had Penny

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Speaker 2: and Carson in that game. You know, if you but

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Speaker 2: if you look, if you look a little deeper into

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Speaker 2: the box score, this it was a dead even game

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Speaker 2: from a yards perspective, and the Eagles I believe, had

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Speaker 2: lost three fumbles and threw two picks. So the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: benefited from five turnovers in that game. But the you know,

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Speaker 2: the injuries on the offensive line for the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: a little wearing. But the Seahawks don't really generate that

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Speaker 2: much pressure and they're just their coverage is not great.

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Speaker 2: You have I don't care that it's gonna be Ward,

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Speaker 2: Robert Davis and Deontay Burnett possibly is the Eagles starting receivers.

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Speaker 2: The way that Wentz is playing right now, I think

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Speaker 2: he's going to be able to move the ball. Boston

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Speaker 2: Scott gave him a spark last week, but it looks

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Speaker 2: like Miles Sanders should be able to go, and he's

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Speaker 2: been better in the second half of the year. And

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Speaker 2: you know, Seattle wants to run the ball and we

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Speaker 2: see it constantly. But this the Eagle strength is their

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Speaker 2: their run defense. And the reason for that is Jim

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Speaker 2: Schwartz's defense is he wants to fill all the gaps

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Speaker 2: with his defensive line is for defensive linemen and then

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Speaker 2: fill the other gaps with you know, other guys in

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Speaker 2: the box. And that's why you just can't run on

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Speaker 2: the Eagle. So I don't think Seattle's going to be

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Speaker 2: able to run it. Russell Wilson will get his, but

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Speaker 2: he's going to be under pressure. Cox is going to

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Speaker 2: be blowing up that pocket. And I think that the

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Speaker 2: Eagles have a shot here, and especially to keep it

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Speaker 2: within seven on a Seattle team that just doesn't win

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Speaker 2: games by more than one possession almost ever.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a great point, and you know, we're

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Speaker 1: not going to talk about it. I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: a pick, but you know, I do think that the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: because Seattle is going to try to come out and

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Speaker 1: run the ball.

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Speaker 3: I'm pretty much anyone. I do like the under in

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Speaker 3: the game.

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Speaker 1: But I do want to mention you know you mentioned

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, and you know, as we've done the past

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Speaker 1: few weeks, we're running a new Fade Revel promotion with

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Speaker 1: our friends at Points bet sportsbook, and this week our

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00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 1: colleague Darren Revel has taken the under tow seventy and

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Speaker 1: a half passing yards for Carson Wentz. Our friends at

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Speaker 1: Points Bet are boosting the odds on the over two

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Speaker 1: hundred and seventy and a half passing yards from minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen to plus one ten. Personally, I think you

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Speaker 1: got a fade Revel here and take the over, because

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Speaker 1: I do think that Carson Wentz will have some success.

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00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 1: But if you're interested in fading Darren Ravel just followed

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00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 1: the link in the episode description for more details.

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Speaker 3: Stuck, I mean over too seventy or under two seventy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to say over. I mean I'm going

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Speaker 2: to get to my pick in this game, and I'll

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Speaker 2: explain why. But I think Ravell loses again. We should

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Speaker 2: all hope.

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Speaker 1: Second pick here, so this this one will be worth

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Speaker 1: two points here. I'll go with the Patriots here four

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home listen, I get it.

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Speaker 1: They they there's no explanation for what happened to them

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Speaker 1: against Miami last week. Hope you didn't have them in

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Speaker 1: any survivor pool that you were saving them all year

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Speaker 1: for this or something like that.

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Speaker 3: But they just completely I.

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Speaker 1: Don't I can't explain it other than their human beings

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Speaker 1: and sometimes motivation just plays into it, where you know,

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Speaker 1: you know you have a you know, a top three

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Speaker 1: seed locked up, and you know home field advantage. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure it's important to coaches and some people, but player

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Speaker 1: to player might not always be the priority.

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Speaker 2: So that's before the thing.

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Speaker 3: You know, that's fair and so this could this could

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Speaker 3: be riskier than I think it is.

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Speaker 1: But going with them is four and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites Brady in the postseason in fox Bro fifty nine

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Speaker 1: percent against the spread.

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Speaker 3: And I think that this is why that.

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Speaker 1: Miami game will be key at some point, because you

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Speaker 1: do worry about the Patriots a little more, I think

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Speaker 1: when they're on the road in the postseason, but you're

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Speaker 1: at home in the postseason and you're going against something

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Speaker 1: that I think has been kind of a talked about.

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Speaker 1: But Ryan Tannehill generally playing well has had a lot

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Speaker 1: of negative plays if the Titans.

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00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 3: Don't throw the ball a lot.

435
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 1: So if you just look at his percentage of like sacks, picks, fumbles,

436
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 1: things of that nature, essentially negative plays, it's still higher

437
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 1: than you like, even though his bottom line numbers have

438
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 1: also been pretty good as fantasy numbers. But John Ewing

439
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 1: did a piece at upoint action network dot com right

440
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,360
Speaker 1: now where he looked at NFL quarterbacks making their playoff

441
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 1: debut and first time quarterbacks. You know, guys that are

442
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 1: starting in the postseason for the first time, not only

443
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 1: fourteen and thirty straight up, but twelve thirty one and

444
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,400
Speaker 1: one against the spread going back to two thousand and three.

445
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,080
Speaker 1: And I think that when you combine that, which kind

446
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 1: of shows that, you know, number one, I think first

447
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 1: time starting quarterbacks in the postseason, there is going to

448
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: be some bias there in the sense of they're probably

449
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 1: playing on teams that aren't quite as good as the

450
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 1: other sides, but the spread should still adjust to that

451
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 1: to some degree. So when you see a twelve thirty

452
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 1: one and in one mark, I think it does raise eyebrows.

453
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 1: And then you kind of look at this game in

454
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 1: this situation and it kind of is that it plays

455
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 1: into it perfectly, where you know, the Patriots.

456
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 3: Haven't looked great all year. We know that.

457
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: You know, their defense has been dominant for most of

458
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 1: the year, but they haven't looked great on offense. They

459
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 1: have struggled at times, you know, even down the stretch

460
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: to kind of put away bad teams or or dominate

461
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: the way they were maybe in the first couple of

462
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 1: weeks when they still had Josh Gordon or Antonio Brown

463
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 1: or pretty much anyone a step up from a snow

464
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: at that number two receiver spot. Though I think Harry

465
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 1: Is is making decent progress there. I don't think they'll

466
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: be too upset with him. But you know this, this

467
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,880
Speaker 1: this is kind of what the Patriots prepare for all year,

468
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 1: which I think explains to some degree why you kind

469
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: of saw the egg against Miami.

470
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 3: You know that. You know, again, I never would bet

471
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 3: a trend blindly, but.

472
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 1: You know, kind of seeing that that that twelve thirty

473
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 1: one in one mark for first time starters, and combining

474
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 1: with what I know about Belichick and Fox bro and

475
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 1: what he's gonna do against AJ Brown, which I think

476
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 1: is key because Devonte Parker and Matthew Friedman shouts to

477
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: my guy Friedman, you do the fantasy flex and corner,

478
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 1: and I were kind of not touching Devonte Parker last week,

479
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 1: not against do England and park going all and I

480
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 1: just cannot see Bill Belichick, you know, wedding that happen

481
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 1: again with AJ Brown. If you shut Aj Brown, of course,

482
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 1: you know, amazing rookie season. If you're able to shut

483
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: him down, that changes everything, you know, for Ryan Tannell

484
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 1: and really that offense, because we know, we know Derrick

485
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 1: Henry is going to be able to get four or

486
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: five yard chunks. I think the Patriots, I think everyone

487
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 1: knows that like and he may even get an explosive

488
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 1: runner to explosive touchdown or two.

489
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: So this Titans defense is vulnerable.

490
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: You know, you have Malcolm Butler, a former Patriot out

491
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 1: that would have been an interesting rematch.

492
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 3: But you do have Logan Ryan.

493
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 1: I think that's a guy who Belichick knows and this

494
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 1: Brady knows him well.

495
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 3: I'm sure from practicing Edelman knows him well.

496
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 1: I think Edelman, you know, hasn't been quite himself these

497
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks.

498
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 3: I don't expect really any fall off in a game

499
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 3: like this.

500
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 1: I think Brady will target him a ton, and I

501
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: think Harry is coming on strong enough here. And I

502
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: think that you know, you still have that rushing attack

503
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,439
Speaker 1: with Sony, Michelle rex Burkehead James White kind of would do.

504
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 3: It all here.

505
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 1: I just think that you're going to see the inexperience

506
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: of Tannehill Show, and you're going to see the inexperience

507
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 1: of just of just this offense heading into the postseason

508
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 1: and this past game in particular to where the margin

509
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 1: for error is going to be at its swimme's point

510
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 1: that it's been all year because the Patriots are They're

511
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 1: going to have the advantage on special teams.

512
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 3: They're going to have the advantage.

513
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: I think if it comes to, you know, the defense

514
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: being able to score some points or get a key play,

515
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be their defense.

516
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 3: So I think at some point the.

517
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: Titans aren't just going to be able to turn around

518
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: and hand the ball to Derrick Henry. And that's where

519
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 1: when they're at their best. You know, when they kind

520
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 1: of get down in games, bad things start to happen

521
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 1: for them. You know, sometimes it's just bad luck, but

522
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,360
Speaker 1: that's what happens when you have to throw the ball

523
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: more and you're a low volume pass team and this

524
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 1: is kind of a dead zone for the spread. Here

525
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 1: four and a half give me the Patriots feeling good

526
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 1: about them up to I would say about six in

527
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 1: this spot.

528
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: Look, I mean from a pure numbers perspective, I make

529
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 2: it around six and a half. And you have to say,

530
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 2: so you're getting value based on what the Patriots. You know,

531
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: in normal years, if they came out beat the Dolphins,

532
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 2: you know, this line probably is six, maybe seven if

533
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: they beat the Dolphins convincingly. But is the question that

534
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: I have is is there something there has to be

535
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: something wrong with this Patriots offense. I mean you're talking

536
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 2: about and you could say, look if they were flat

537
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: or something happened, but they never lose at home to

538
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 2: teams in their division, especially teams like the Dolphins at

539
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 2: home in Week seventeen for a bye. And when you

540
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 2: look at that game, the Dolphins of historically bad defense.

541
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 2: For you listening out there, name two starters on their

542
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 2: defense for last week. You probably can't do it. Their

543
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 2: secondary has been depleted if you look at most advanced matters,

544
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 2: just the worst defense in the NFL past defense, rush defense,

545
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 2: and we're talking about Tom Brady going five of twelve

546
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: for ninety yards in the first half with a pick

547
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 2: six against that Miami defense. You know, the second half

548
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 2: you want eleven of seventeen, but for one hundred and

549
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 2: twenty yards there's downfield he's inaccurate. I don't know if

550
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 2: it's his elbow or if we have to, you know,

551
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: take him behind the shed and put him down, and

552
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: it's just his age. There's there's something that's completely off

553
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 2: with the offense. And you know there's also you know,

554
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: they're miss Gronk at the tight end positions, not giving

555
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 2: him anything. The receivers have been a carousel all year.

556
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: It's one of the reasons they thought, hey we need

557
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 2: Josh Gordon, we need Antonio Brown. Well that didn't work out.

558
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: So now you know you have Harry trying to come

559
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 2: in here as a rookie Edelman who's been banged up.

560
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: But I do expect Edelman a big game. That's if

561
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 2: you're like a prop player or fantasy. He's going against

562
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 2: Logan Ryan, who, as you said, the Patriots know well

563
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: where Logan RAN's one of the worst slock corners in

564
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 2: the NFL this year. I think he's given up the

565
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: most yards in coverage went in the slot. You know,

566
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 2: that's the Titans weakness has been their secondary. You know,

567
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 2: they've had a lot of injuries. That Dory Jackson coming

568
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: back this week should help if he's depending on how

569
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 2: healthy he is. But it's just been a carousel out there.

570
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 2: But I just don't know if the Patriots can take advantage.

571
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: And the Patriots offense, when it's looked good this year,

572
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 2: it's been when they can run the ball, and that's

573
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 2: the strength. The Titans defense is their run defense top

574
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 2: ten DVA. They have a really good defensive line, especially

575
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 2: adding Simmons into the mix. You know, it's a defense

576
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 2: that gives a lot of looks. It's a defense that

577
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 2: runs a ton of different schemes. It's very versatile defense

578
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 2: that deanps runs. There's a lot of familiarity with what

579
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: the Patriots want to do, you know, Varabel and Peace

580
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: and you know, obviously on both sides of this. I

581
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: just don't know. The weakness of the Titans is their

582
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: past defense, their corners specifically, I don't I just don't

583
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 2: know if the Patriots are built right now with the

584
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 2: way Brady is playing to actually take advantage that's the

585
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 2: main question. The experience differential is huge. Just Tannahill going

586
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 2: up for his first playoff start, going to Foxborough, you know,

587
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: in the rain against and this is his first playoffs,

588
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 2: So Brady has forty playoff starts in his career. You know,

589
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,199
Speaker 2: I just don't know if the Pats are built to

590
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 2: attack this Titan's offense on the outside, and Brady's just

591
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: been so inaccurate, and I think the Titans are going

592
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: to bring pressure. Piece is going to bring a lot

593
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 2: of pressure. They're going to load the box, and they're

594
00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: going to dare Brady to beat him on the outside

595
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: and under pressure. This year thirty six percent completion percentage,

596
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 2: that's lowest in the NFL, thirty six percent quarterback rating

597
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 2: about fifty. So, you know, on the other side of

598
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: the ball, and this is what makes me kind of

599
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 2: look to the under You know, it's going to be raining,

600
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 2: and I do think that the Patriots will take away

601
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: Brown and their run defense has actually been better than

602
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 2: I thought it was going to be. They're going to

603
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 2: load the box and if you do look at the

604
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: Tennessee offense, Brian Tannehill finishes the number one rated quarterback

605
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: in the NFL this year.

606
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: And yeah, no, I'm not taking anything away from Tannehill.

607
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: First of all, like you know the fact that I'm

608
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: even bringing up Ryan Tannehill as a factor in this

609
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: game against Tom Brady, so like, I didn't mean to

610
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: take anything away from it.

611
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 3: I just meant that, no, I agree with you.

612
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: I'm going to agree with you here.

613
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, bad, you'll.

614
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 2: And I want to get to this. And by the way,

615
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: since he took over, the only teams that averaged more

616
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 2: points per game, you know, the last ten weeks with

617
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 2: the Saints and Ravens, and since he took over, the

618
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: Titans had the most explosive offense in the NFL top

619
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: two rushing and passing explosiveness. You know, obviously you have

620
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry who won the rushing title with some with

621
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,239
Speaker 2: people have to keep mind, what's going right for this

622
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 2: offense is their offensive line. Taylor Lawan, you know, he

623
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 2: was suspended for the first four games. He settled in

624
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 2: Roger Staffold they got from the Rams at guard. He

625
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 2: settled in. You know, Ben Jones is one of the

626
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 2: top rated centers. And then you have Jack Conklin who

627
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 2: might be out. He was limited today, which is something

628
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on. But I do like their backup.

629
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 2: But he's you know, been playing really well as well.

630
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 2: I think PFF has is a sixth best right tackle.

631
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 2: The offensive line is playing really well for you know,

632
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: in front of Derrick Henry and he's able to run

633
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: and break runs. But and and also their red zone

634
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 2: offense has been ridiculous. They're seventy five percent touchdown percentage.

635
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 2: The next ties is the Ravens at like sixty seven.

636
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: But the Patriots are really good defense in the red zone.

637
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 2: They always have been under Belichick, so I don't think

638
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 2: that that necessarily continues here. By the way, just a

639
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 2: side note, the ref crew is I love this ref

640
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 2: crew for this game. They don't call a out of holds,

641
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 2: so that could maybe favor the Titans. They're much more

642
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: penalized team than the Patriots. But just something to keep

643
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: in mind. But if I want to just dive into here,

644
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: if you look at Tannehill, Okay, so all of a sudden,

645
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: Tannhill is the best quarterback of the NFL and Brown

646
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: is the best receiver in the NFL. Like, let's hold

647
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 2: off on that because let's you know, the numbers have

648
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 2: been great and they're elite over the last ten weeks

649
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: of the year. But let's go through the schedule here,

650
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: all right. So Tannehill took over in a game where

651
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 2: they lost, you know, he came in and the game

652
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 2: where they lost sixteen nothing I believed against the Prosts, right,

653
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: he didn't start that game. Mario started that game and

654
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 2: he was awful. But you know, his first start was

655
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 2: the next game, they played the Chargers, not a great team.

656
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: Next week they played the Box at home. They lost

657
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 2: to the Panthers. Then the next week they beat the

658
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: Chiefs at home, but they had no business winning that game.

659
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 2: Fluke after Fluke after Fluke in that fourth quarter and

660
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 2: they end up winning by three. Next week they played

661
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 2: the corpse of the Jags. Next week the Colts and

662
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 2: the Raiders. You know, then they lost to the Texans

663
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 2: at home, and they played the Saints and you know,

664
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: they rested Henry. They lost, They gave up thirty eight

665
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: points of the Saints lost thirty eight twenty eight. And

666
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 2: then they rolled the Texans, who rested all their starters.

667
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: So which of those games are are really impressive? I mean,

668
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 2: the Chiefs win as fluky of an NFL win as

669
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: it was fluky from the cover six. This run that

670
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: Tannehill has been on has been awesome, but look at

671
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: the opponents that he's done it against, they haven't been great.

672
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: So I think that the offense of the Titans is

673
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: is getting a little too much love here in the market.

674
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 2: So that's what makes me look at the under here

675
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: as I think it'll be a lower scring and I

676
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 2: don't trust the Pats offense. It shows me every week

677
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: and the Titans offense probably isn't as good, and you

678
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: know you're going to get the best scheme game possible

679
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: from the Patriots here to take away Brown and stack

680
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 2: the box to take away Henry.

681
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: I think the one thing about the Pats offense, and

682
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 1: this is why I go back to emotions and motivations

683
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 1: kind of played into it and lack thereof in this

684
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: spot is because you go back to the week before

685
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: the Patriots are at home, they're playing the Buffalo Bills.

686
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: It's for the division, so it's kind of in terms

687
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: of importance. I think they would have waited that game

688
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: more and that was Week sixteen, going against a Buffalo

689
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: top six defense against in the Bills. Tom Brady goes

690
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: to twenty six of thirty three for two hundred and

691
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: seventy one yards. The Patriots put up a four hundred

692
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: and thirty plus yards of total offense, and you know,

693
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: and they get to win, and they're fine, and they're

694
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: largely fine.

695
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 3: And that's even with Edelman not necessarily at his healthiest.

696
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 3: And I just.

697
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: Think that, you know, every time we try to, you know,

698
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: sit here and make sense of what's going on with

699
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: the Pats, and there are definitely some flaws here. But

700
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: you know, that was a week before, and you know,

701
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: Brady incomplete seven balls against one of the best, better

702
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,719
Speaker 1: pass defenses. That's kind of what I'm expecting. You know,

703
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: I don't expect many mistakes. I don't expect these these

704
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 1: kind of ugly games in the postseason when it matters

705
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: from Tom Brady and this offense.

706
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: But you can't, you tell me your eye tests. There's

707
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 2: something wrong with the Patriots right now.

708
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 3: They have an old quarterback and one good receiver. It's

709
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 3: it's no secret.

710
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: And their offensive line isn't great, and their offensive line

711
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: isn't great.

712
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 2: A lot is as good as your past, So I

713
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: think they could they'll probably find a way to win

714
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: this game, wouldn't shock me if they don't. But once

715
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 2: they win this game, their funerals in Kansas City next week.

716
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: I mean that's also been a familiar you know thought.

717
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's who knows like who knows like. I

718
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: never I never count the Patriots. Out've made the mistake

719
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: of doing it before. But but I wouldn't be surprised if

720
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: they also roll the Titans in this game. Like, you know,

721
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: I don't see Tannehills having success without a J. Brown

722
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: at the forefront, and I don't think that he's going

723
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 1: to have success against Gilmore, so that that's essentially what

724
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 1: this bet is boiling down to for me. But yeah,

725
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: I think the under for those same reasons makes a

726
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: lot of sense.

727
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, for my will, I'll let you do

728
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: your third pick last, because my two picks here are

729
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 2: kind of in tandem. So my second pick is I'm

730
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: going to go with the Eagles first half plus a half,

731
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 2: and then I'm all for my third pick. I'm actually

732
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: going I know you like the under here, I'm going

733
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 2: with the Eagles Seahawks over forty six. So these two

734
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 2: bets are predicated on how I think this game plays out.

735
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 2: Number one, I don't if you go back and watch

736
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: that first game. The final score was seventeen to nine,

737
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 2: so you might say, okay, seventeen to nine, why do

738
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: I want to bet it over here? But if you

739
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: watch that game, the Eagles number one had five turnovers,

740
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 2: so they were able to move the ball, wentz through

741
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 2: forty five times for two hundred and fifty six yards.

742
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,479
Speaker 2: They had some some success running the ball. And then

743
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: on you know, so they had five turnovers, they killed them.

744
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: They three hundred fifty yards of offense, the same as

745
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. The Seahawks also had three fifty yards offense.

746
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: They could have had five hundred. Russell Wilson uncharacteristically missed

747
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: about three wide open deep balls for touchdowns. That is

748
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 2: the weakness of the Eagles defense. So what I think

749
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 2: is going to happen. The Seahawks do this all the time.

750
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: I'd hate their coaching staff for four down decisions, for

751
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: game script decisions. But what they're going to try to

752
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 2: come out and do is run the ball, which is

753
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 2: so dumb. Here. Their team is I think their top

754
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 2: three in rush attempts per game. So they're going to

755
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: come out and try to establish the run and then

756
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 2: it's going to fail miserably. Talk about Jim Schwartzz defense.

757
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: The entire goal is to stop the run. They fill

758
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 2: the gaps, they bring men in the box. You know,

759
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: go look at the Eagles rush defense stats the last

760
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,479
Speaker 2: couple of years elite. So not being able to run

761
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 2: the ball, they're going to get behind. You know, the

762
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 2: Eagles are going to come out. It's going to be

763
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 2: a crazy environment. Wentz is playing at such a high level.

764
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: You're going to have Doug Peterson. Again, this is a

765
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 2: coaching mismatch in the sense that Carol's going to play

766
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: at conservative especially early, and you're you're gonna see some

767
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 2: trick plays. You're going to see all the stops pulled

768
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: out from Peterson, Who's going to play this very aggressively.

769
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 2: He's going to go for it on fourth downs. Carol

770
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: will punt it. So look, I mean, this is the

771
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: script of a lot of Seattle games all year. And

772
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 2: then what's going to happen is they're going to say, shit,

773
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: we can't run it. We're behind. So let's let Russell

774
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 2: Wilson throw it forty times, which is smart because he

775
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: also can run the ball, and he's going to be

776
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 2: throwing it against the secondary. That's atrocious. If you look

777
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 2: at that Giants gamelast week, Daniel Jones missed a wide

778
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 2: open touchdown on that fourth quarter that could have changed

779
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 2: the entire game, underthrew them by about ten yards. There

780
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 2: was guys, go back and watch the tape that Seattle

781
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: Philly game. Russell Wilson missed three wide open guys deep

782
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: and that's I I'll trust Russell Wilson to make those

783
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: throws this time around. The Eagles secondary is absolutely depleted.

784
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 2: You know when they last time they played, they had

785
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 2: Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills were the starting corners. Mills questionable,

786
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 2: Darby's out. You know you have Maddox and LeBlanc are

787
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 2: gonna be out there. I mean, there's the secondary is bad.

788
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: They're gonna give up deep shots. So you're gonna have Metcalf,

789
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 2: You're gonna get lock again behind the defense. You're gonna

790
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson making plays, which is what they need to

791
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 2: do because their offensive line isn't great. So you're gonna

792
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 2: have to have Russ create and he's gonna be able

793
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 2: to do that. It's gonna get out of the pocket,

794
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 2: he's gonna make things happen downfield, buying time, and the

795
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 2: Seahawks are done, gonna start scoring. The Seahawks defense is bad.

796
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 2: I mean, this defense just is bad across the board.

797
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 2: They've their average over two takeaways per game, which is

798
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 2: top three the NFL, so they've been really fortunate in takeaways.

799
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: Go back to the Eagles game, they have five turnovers.

800
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: I don't see how that can they can continue. Their

801
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 2: safeties are bad. They have one reliable corner, they don't

802
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 2: get pressure, they can't cover tight ends. So even if

803
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: Earts doesn't play got Her, I think can have a

804
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: big day up the seam of against the Seattle defensive scheme.

805
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 2: You know, I just think that Wentz is playing it

806
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: too high of a level right now. And it doesn't

807
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 2: really matter who's playing receiver. We saw that last week.

808
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 2: You're gonna see Perkins maybe earth Skins of it go.

809
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 2: We'll see a lot of Perkins got Her. Greg Ward's

810
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: playing great in the slot and Seattle doesn't have a

811
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 2: slot corner. I think that the Eagles will be able

812
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 2: to score. Seattle will eventually score once Wilson gets going

813
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 2: and Seattle unleashes him. So I think it's fast start.

814
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: Philly pulling out all the stops, Seattle come back late,

815
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson allowed the ball to shot to win late

816
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 2: would have shocked me if he wins. No, So all

817
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 2: three of my bets are involving this game this week.

818
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 2: I tease the seven and a half, I have the

819
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: Eagles plus a half first half and the over forty six.

820
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 2: So you could just if this game or you just

821
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 2: you might take a commanding lead here.

822
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 3: I mean, I would.

823
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: Love for that to happen, just because all you're I've

824
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: just kind of like, be careful.

825
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 3: Don't don't bet against Russ like, don't don't do it like,

826
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 3: but I'm technically not better answer us that year you're not.

827
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: I have to come back and win this game by

828
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 2: by one to seven, and I go home happy.

829
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: I think I do agree with how with what you're

830
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: saying about where the advantage is. Why I don't I'm

831
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: not as confident that it necessarily plays out that way.

832
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 3: First of all, in.

833
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: Regard to the Eagles receivers and and don't get me wrong,

834
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 1: Wentz is playing well right now. He wasn't at it always,

835
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: But I think when you get into the postseason, that's

836
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 1: when not having Ertz at one hundred percent hurts. I

837
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: think when you get into the postseason and you're and

838
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 1: you're throwing eight times nine times a game to a

839
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 1: guy like Greg Ward and you need to keep their

840
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: down conversion in the postseason, that's when you know, the

841
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 1: greg Wards of the world don't necessarily come through. So

842
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 1: I do think that it still hurts the Eagles to

843
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: not have al Sean, probably not Agal or probably not ERTs,

844
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: not day Sean. You know, they're This is where I

845
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: still think that that, you know, regardless of the quality

846
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 1: of the defense, I think that that does hurt. You know,

847
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 1: there are going to be high pressure situations that some

848
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: of these guys just simply have not been it.

849
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 3: But that being said, I do think that the.

850
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: Seahawks are going to irrationally probably try to run the football.

851
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 3: This is just a type of game where even for

852
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 3: the Eagles.

853
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: I think one underrated kind of thing that's going to

854
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: play into this game is Jordan Howard is getting healthier

855
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: for the Eagles and Miles Sanders, who's been a big

856
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: part of their offense and being able to kind of

857
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 1: sustain without with all the other injuries. You know, he's

858
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 1: banged up. I think, you know, Peterson said, Howard will

859
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: play more of a factor. I think in this kind

860
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 1: of game, you know, cold weather, you know, at home,

861
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 1: Seahawks have given up in the last four games eight

862
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: touchdowns on the ground to running backs.

863
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 3: Two in each game.

864
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: I think that the Eagles are going to try to

865
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 1: keep this one on the ground too. I don't think

866
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: they're going to try to I don't. I don't think

867
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 1: they would like to have went throwing forty five times

868
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: in this game. You know, regardless of what we think

869
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: of the Seattle defense and that Seattle defense, there are

870
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: times when you kind of we kind of look at

871
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: them and their you know, individual parts, and then we

872
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: kind of say, this defense is gonna get shredded at

873
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 1: the end of the day. They probably know that, but

874
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,399
Speaker 1: their whole scheme is a Cover three, and they are

875
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 1: going to be weak against tight ends and whatever not.

876
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 1: And in certain spots they're playing a Cover three to

877
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 1: essentially take away the big plays and kind of make

878
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: offenses drive up and down the field. So I think

879
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 1: that kind of still works in a favor of the

880
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: under But I mean, there are a lot of things,

881
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 1: just like from a precedent standpoint, you know, from a

882
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: trend's standpoint, that that du point toward the under as well.

883
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 1: Like if you just look at in the wildcard round,

884
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 1: especially outdoor games in the postseason going back to two

885
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: thousand and three, thirty four and thirteen seventy two percent

886
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: toward the under.

887
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson when.

888
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: He's a road favorite regular or postseason the under twenty

889
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 1: five and sixteen in the Wildcard round specifically three and one,

890
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: and then Doug Peterson and this Eagles team, they've tended

891
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: to kind of that this is where their defense tends

892
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 1: to really play well at home.

893
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 3: It's where it's where they're you know, they can, they can.

894
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 1: They're kind of predicated on getting pressure without with's seeing

895
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 1: they will send breath blitzes as well, so you know,

896
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: kind of the crowd can help play into that and

897
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: disrupt the opponent's offensive line, which we know for Seattle

898
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 1: is really good. So h this one doesn't get talked

899
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: about as much, but since Doud Pearson took over for

900
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles at home, the under is twenty four

901
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 1: and ten seventy one percent regular in postseason for the

902
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: Eagles at home toward the under. So there, you know,

903
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be a hard

904
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: for it game.

905
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:27,839
Speaker 3: I don't.

906
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 1: I think that Seattle will have to hit big plays

907
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: to kind of take it over, and it could very

908
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 1: well happen. I think dk metcalf is going to have

909
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: a field day out there and he could make a

910
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: difference in the total for this game.

911
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 3: But I do see it going under.

912
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 1: I'm a little less bullsh on on just like a

913
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: ton of points, just for kind of the way we've

914
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: seen these things play out in the past, not as

915
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: much to do with with with the first game, which

916
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: I do agree was just kind of a bunch of

917
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 1: flukey things happening that that made the score super low.

918
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 2: But with the Eagles getting pressure and Seattle not being

919
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 2: able to run, I mean, that's going to force Russ

920
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 2: to run around by time and get his receivers downfield,

921
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 2: and that is where that is where the Eagles are vulnerable,

922
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 2: the weak point of the Philly defense. So I think

923
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: the game script is going to allow that. On the

924
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 2: other side, You're right, the Seattle. The one good thing

925
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: they do on defense they take away. They get a

926
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 2: lot of takeaways, which I don't think is necessarily sustainable,

927
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 2: but they don't give up a ton of big plays

928
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 2: to keep everything in front of them. They don't give

929
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 2: up a ton of big runs or a ton of

930
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 2: big passes. But that's not necessarily the Eagles offense. You know,

931
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 2: the Eagles don't have the star receiver they want to

932
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 2: into Shawn Jackson or someone that they want to throw

933
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 2: it down the field fifty yards to. It's Wentz just

934
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 2: making right now. He's just in his zone, making ridiculous throws,

935
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,919
Speaker 2: finding his tight ends, buying a little time. So that's

936
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 2: how the Eagles are moving the ball with efficient passing

937
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: attack led by Wentz. And then also when you get

938
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 2: down and these what this comes down to me is

939
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 2: when you get down to the red zone. Also, both

940
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 2: teams are really good in the red zone. That's because

941
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 2: of the quarterbacks. Do you have two quarterbacks who I trust,

942
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 2: who are playing really well against two bottom ten defenses?

943
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: And then I think that the game's script is going

944
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 2: to allow for this game to have a little more

945
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 2: points in the total. Is implying I can see your argument.

946
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 2: That's where I'm rolling got you.

947
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 1: We'll see how play that's gonna be very interesting with

948
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 1: all three of your also to your points riding on

949
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 1: this one For my last pick, I'm going to go

950
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: with the Minnesota Vikings plus eight, and kind of alluded

951
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: to it before. I just think it's the line is off.

952
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 1: I get it, the Saints have been rolling. But when

953
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: you look at this, you know, like, for example, if

954
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: you look at something as simple as like the simple

955
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 1: rating system no pun intended, which essentially adjusts the team's

956
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: margin of victory for you know, their strength to schedule,

957
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: the Saints should be about a five to five and

958
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. They're about two points better than

959
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,439
Speaker 1: the Vikings. And then you add in the home field,

960
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 1: which I think for the Saints is more substantial than most,

961
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 1: So you know, you could give them, you give them three,

962
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: even three and a half if you really want to,

963
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: and it's about the spread would be about five and

964
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: a half or so at best. And I think the

965
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: Vikings kind of coming out flat that that game on

966
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: Prime time against the Packers. You know, obviously concerning you know,

967
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: Cook was out, Delan didn't look where, Cousins really didn't

968
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: look right. But uh, this is Saints team number one.

969
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: They're you know, we're in we're indoors first of all,

970
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: so that that that always helps. I think you know

971
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: both offenses, so I think the Vikings will play a

972
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: little bit. I think the line is what it is

973
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 1: because I think people are questioning the Vikings offense is

974
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 1: essentially what I'm trying to say. Now, there is a

975
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 1: lot of uncertainty there, but again I think that creates

976
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:38,359
Speaker 1: value on the line in a spot where at this line,

977
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 1: at this point in the line at eight uh and

978
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: I think there's still some eight and a halfs available

979
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 1: as well. You know, you're essentially just saying, hey, if

980
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 1: they can just get like a backdoor cover, get it,

981
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: get it to within a one score game at some

982
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: point you know, wait in the game, that's all you

983
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 1: need to at least push, like salvage a push like that.

984
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: I think that's a very good value considering I make

985
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 1: this line closer to six is like a a fair

986
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 1: situation considering you know, the Vikings injuries though, or just

987
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: the uncertainty regarding the vikingssy But I do think Adam

988
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 1: Thieling is going to be at his healthiest, you know.

989
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 1: I think the week off will help. Same thing for

990
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: Davin Cook. He's got a chance to get healthy. And

991
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,800
Speaker 1: then you look at the Saints in these spots and generally,

992
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 1: this is what happens down the stretch for the Saints.

993
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 1: You know, they have a little hiccup at some point

994
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: in the season. We saw it this year. We give

995
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: it up forty eight to the forty nine ers, and

996
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 1: they lost the game.

997
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 3: I think it was who is it? To the Falcons?

998
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 1: Just a stunning game that they lost that home to

999
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,879
Speaker 1: the Falcons. And then they kind of got right again

1000
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 1: and started rolling. And you get to the postseason, and

1001
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 1: this has been the time where the Saints have been overvalued.

1002
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: If you look at Drew Brees, especially in these home

1003
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 1: starts in the postseason, Drew Brees is two and six

1004
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,879
Speaker 1: against the spread with the Saints at home in the postseason,

1005
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 1: and that is the most unprofitable quarterback to back of

1006
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 1: all of the quarterbacks in our bet Labs database dating

1007
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: back to two thousand and three.

1008
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 3: So this is just a spot where I don't think

1009
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: it's on Breeze.

1010
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 1: I just think that you know, he played, He's capable

1011
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 1: playing so well for stretches, and his team is capable

1012
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 1: playing so well for stretches that you sometimes use site

1013
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 1: of the fact that they are in fact you bean

1014
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: and they are in fact vulnerable to things like bad

1015
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: calls or things that don't go their way, and that

1016
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: I just think this this spread is it's the widest

1017
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 1: of of of.

1018
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 3: The wild card weekend. I just think it's too much.

1019
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: I think the Vikings are able to cover here. And

1020
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 1: I mean, granted, given what we're seeing with these two.

1021
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 3: Teams, I mean, would I be surprised if they won?

1022
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: Not at all.

1023
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: I know I do like this, you know, teasing the

1024
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 1: Saints down because I think the Saints should win the game.

1025
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: But eight points just too many points for me. Uh

1026
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 3: in this spot. And and this is another.

1027
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 1: Spot where just in general, this is the postseason, teams

1028
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 1: are evenly matched. If you look went back in bet

1029
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 1: Labs and kind of looked at the different spread margins

1030
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: to try to see, you know, how it goes in

1031
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 1: the postseason, it's it's a different beast from the regular season.

1032
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 2: Uh.

1033
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 3: This has been a sweet spot to bet.

1034
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 1: Underdogs seven to nine and and a half twenty nine

1035
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 1: and fourteen with one push against the spread sixty seven percent.

1036
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 3: So I do like the Viking in the spot.

1037
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: It's more about the number, but I do think the

1038
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 1: offense is being underlooked.

1039
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 2: It's like, so the Vikings are interesting because they're blind.

1040
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 2: They have three of the top four rated safeties, three

1041
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 2: of the three safeties in like the top ten graded

1042
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 2: safeties with Harris Smith and Wayns. Their safeties are so good.

1043
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 2: Their linebackers have been great, but their corners haven't. So

1044
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 2: I think that the Saints will be able to move

1045
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 2: the ball on the outside efficiently what the Vikings have

1046
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: to do. The only question I have here is what

1047
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 2: does that offense look like? Initially? It hasn't played together

1048
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 2: and hasn't played well. You know, they play that players hurt,

1049
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 2: They've players sitting out for various reasons. If Cousins comes down,

1050
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 2: the'se not good Cousins, and the offense is out of rhythm,

1051
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 2: and then they have to play from behind, and then

1052
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 2: they're not relying on Cook and running it at that

1053
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,760
Speaker 2: Saints defense. That's the only way that I could see

1054
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:51,919
Speaker 2: this really getting out of hand. If not, I agree,

1055
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 2: I think that the Vikings can at least keep up,

1056
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 2: but I think the Saints ultimately pull it out. It's

1057
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 2: something to note two on the Vikings that their special

1058
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 2: team's been a lot better this year. Dan Bailey's been

1059
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 2: like really good. I think it's only this one field

1060
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: goal year, and Cole Quit at punter has been good

1061
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 2: and him holding I think has helped a lot. They've

1062
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 2: had holding he holds their kicks. I think that they've

1063
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 2: had issues there in the past. He short up that.

1064
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 2: So their special teams have been a lot better. But

1065
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 2: you know, they have to come out fast and as

1066
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 2: long as Cook and Feeling are healthy, I think that

1067
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: they can. If not and Cousins comes out and he

1068
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 2: throws a pick, or they have a couple three and

1069
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 2: out so they get down ten to fourteen early, that's

1070
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 2: the only way I think this could potentially turn into

1071
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 2: a blowout.

1072
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: I mean to be fair, like, I think this is

1073
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 1: another one of these recentcy biased things because Kirk Cousins

1074
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 1: had a miserable game against Green Bay, Like there's no

1075
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 1: denying at sixteen of thirty one for one hundred and

1076
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: twenty two yards, a touchdown, a pick, three point nine

1077
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,879
Speaker 1: yards per attempt. But this season, and feeling or not,

1078
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 1: this season has been He's been good. Cousins has been

1079
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 1: good all year pretty much up until that point twenty

1080
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: six touchdown, six picks on the year, yard per attempt

1081
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 1: at eight point one. You know, the volume was just

1082
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: down earlier in the year because they had some matches

1083
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 1: where they could run the ball.

1084
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 3: Cook was fully healthy.

1085
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:08,479
Speaker 1: But this has really been that that was that last

1086
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: game was really the worst Cousins that we've seen all year.

1087
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: Even when there was kind of the drama and Adampty

1088
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: and we're not passing the ball enough digs, they were

1089
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 1: all mad the Vikings. The Vikings were still having success

1090
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: in games they just weren't necessarily they had they you know,

1091
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: they had the they blew it against Green Bay, but

1092
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: but they scored the last sixteen points of that game.

1093
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: You know, it was just it was more so I

1094
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 3: think the volume.

1095
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 1: That that was kind of, you know, worrying people with

1096
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: that offense, and they could they come out and throw

1097
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 1: a volume and they kind of proved that down the stretch.

1098
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 3: And that was even without Stevens.

1099
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 1: So I mean, I do think it's we have that

1100
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 1: kind of bad taste in our mouths from Cousins from

1101
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 1: week sixteen, which I don't think is completely accurate. But

1102
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 1: I am interested, like you said, to see the the

1103
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 1: kind of big game aspect of it, because that is

1104
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: something I think you can question.

1105
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 2: And by the way, one thing to keep in mind

1106
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 2: that I would be scared about as a Viking. If

1107
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 2: you bet the Vikings is the refs, I can't see,

1108
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 2: you know, it's not like it's not like it's not

1109
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 2: like the NFL is going to say fix this game,

1110
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 2: but it given the atmosphere that you're going to see

1111
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 2: there on Sunday, if you're a ref, it's only human

1112
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 2: nature knowing the history of what happened there to like,

1113
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:14,800
Speaker 2: can you imagine that they call like, if there's anything

1114
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: close to a PI, it's getting called on the Vikings

1115
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,439
Speaker 2: anything close. So just keep that in mind.

1116
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: Let's go into the best of the rest, which will

1117
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 1: be Texans Bills. So none of us liked any plays

1118
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 1: in Texans Bills enough to get him in the six

1119
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: pac stuck.

1120
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 3: I guess just.

1121
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: General thoughts on the game and why that is and

1122
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 1: which way you wean if you're making picks on this one.

1123
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 2: When I first look at this Bill's offense, I mean,

1124
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 2: I think it's evolved that they're playing faster. Alan has

1125
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 2: been a little better and a little more accurate. It's

1126
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 2: still not great from Alan, and you still have worries

1127
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 2: about Kenny go on the road here and beat a

1128
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 2: team with a much better quarterback. I do think that

1129
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 2: the Bills have a coaching edge. I've loved their staff

1130
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,359
Speaker 2: a lot more that could come into player as far

1131
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 2: as preparation scheme, all of that's but the quarterback edge,

1132
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 2: it's clearly with the Texans and they are at home.

1133
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 2: But when I look at the Bills, you know, this

1134
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: Texans defense, it's bad. It's just not great, especially in

1135
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 2: the in the secondary. Their run defense was good in

1136
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 2: the first half of the year. I thought it was

1137
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 2: a lot of smoking mirrors. Last six seven weeks of

1138
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 2: the of the season, it's been one of the worst

1139
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They're just getting shredded up and down. Now,

1140
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 2: what is back? Which is the big thing? I'm I'm

1141
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,399
Speaker 2: he's like an Aaron Donald to me almost He's worth

1142
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 2: a couple of points to the spread. There's only a

1143
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 2: couple of defenders in the NFL that you can say

1144
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: that about. How much do I assign to him here?

1145
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 2: First game back is you know, a pectoral injury that's

1146
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 2: usually season ending. I can't imagine he's fully healthy, but

1147
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 2: he will help. He definitely will help people draw attention

1148
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 2: and he probably will make a big player too. But

1149
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 2: he's not going to be I don't think at least,

1150
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 2: you know, you're dominant. JJ Watt that's you know, mid

1151
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 2: season fourm but he will help a little bit. But

1152
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:52,359
Speaker 2: the corners are just really bad. I mean, they got

1153
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 2: a Raiders cast off, they have a Bucks cast off

1154
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 2: playing corner, and you know you're speaking of Dfs, the

1155
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 2: guy who I thinking have a huge day for the

1156
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: Bills offense. And by the way, I think they're gonna

1157
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:03,880
Speaker 2: be able to run a little bit. And they've pretty

1158
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,240
Speaker 2: much said Singletary's our guy, which I think is smart,

1159
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 2: and you look at the snap counts that shows it.

1160
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 2: But Cole Beasley could have an enormous day against Harger's

1161
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: who has been atrocious. I mean, he can't cover anybody,

1162
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: and he's playing the slot for them now and the

1163
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 2: numbers are dire, So I think that that's gonna be

1164
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,840
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's security blanket, and I don't think that the

1165
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 2: Texans can stop it. And you saw you've seen a

1166
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 2: couple huge Beasley games this year. You saw, you know,

1167
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 2: even against the Patriots, who can cover slow receivers. But

1168
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 2: the Dallas game comes to mind, so you could see

1169
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 2: Beasley have a big day. On the other side, of

1170
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 2: the ball. The interesting thing to me is this is

1171
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 2: the matchup between Hopkins and White. So the Bills defense, look,

1172
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: it doesn't give up anything big. So that's that's what

1173
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 2: has me struggling with this game, because the Texans offense

1174
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:57,320
Speaker 2: is if you look at you know, the correlation between

1175
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: when they're having successful passing day on field and they

1176
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 2: have a lot of deep passes and you know, winning

1177
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 2: and covering it's all. That's what it is. That's that's

1178
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 2: what drives their offense. It's big plays. So so the

1179
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 2: health of will Fuller is obviously important in that aspect.

1180
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: He's apparently going to give it a go. But the

1181
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 2: Builders don't give up anything deep. I mean, this is

1182
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 2: a team that's I think in the this is the

1183
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,399
Speaker 2: third straight year they rank in the top three deep

1184
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 2: completions allowed per game. So it's about zero point nine

1185
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 2: less than one this year, you know. So they have

1186
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 2: two great safeties and player and I and they focus

1187
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 2: on not letting anything behind them, and then they have

1188
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 2: a great cornerback in Trey White, who is ranked second

1189
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 2: in the NFL and passer rating allowed forty six point three.

1190
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 2: He didn't allow touchdown this year. I think he is

1191
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 2: the only cornerback in the NFL that didn't with at

1192
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 2: least fifty targets. So and he led the NFL on interceptions,

1193
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 2: I believe. So just a historically dominant year for a

1194
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 2: corner Now, the schedule was a joke if you look

1195
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,879
Speaker 2: at it, and you got to remember this Bills team,

1196
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 2: the only team with a winning record that they beat

1197
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 2: all year was the Tennessee Titans when Mariota was starting

1198
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:01,760
Speaker 2: and Santos missed four field goals and they won fourteen

1199
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 2: to seven. That is the only team. And that Titans

1200
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: team is a shell of itself. It's the only team

1201
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 2: with the wing record they beat all year. So you know,

1202
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:11,359
Speaker 2: it's tough. I make the line a little over three,

1203
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:14,720
Speaker 2: so I lean to the Texans at two and a half.

1204
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 2: But there's just a lot of questions here, you know,

1205
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:21,360
Speaker 2: especially also the Texans offensive line. There's some injuries and

1206
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:24,799
Speaker 2: it hasn't been great. But I do think ultimately what

1207
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 2: this comes down to is why I do lean to

1208
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 2: the Texans is the better quarterback, and I think that

1209
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to run the ball a little bit.

1210
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 2: You can run on the Bills, so I think they're

1211
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 2: gonna be able to establish the run. I think fuller back,

1212
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 2: assuming he's healthy, wat Back helps a little bit on

1213
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 2: the defense. All that leads me to believe that I

1214
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,919
Speaker 2: think that Texans probably find a way to pull this out.

1215
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 2: The one but that has me a little hesitant is

1216
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 2: the coaching mismatch. What McDermot his staff are going to

1217
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 2: have for against a team that has you know, Bill

1218
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 2: O'Brien who sometimes has a team that looks completely unprepared.

1219
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 2: It's a tough game in the handicap, But from a

1220
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,359
Speaker 2: pure numbers perspective, I do think the Texans have a

1221
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:06,280
Speaker 2: bit of a tad bit of value under three.

1222
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I.

1223
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 1: Mean the same way I think that again, I go

1224
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 1: back to that that that mark for first time quarterbacks

1225
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: in the playoffs and you know, twelve.

1226
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:17,879
Speaker 3: Thirty one and one against the spread.

1227
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: I mean that's something that that you really have to

1228
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:21,399
Speaker 1: look at, but you have to say, okay, well why

1229
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 1: because and then you kind of look at it and

1230
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: it kind of plays into a situation like this, Like

1231
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: I think the reason that you know a lot of

1232
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 1: you know quarterbacks who maybe aren't elite at the topic,

1233
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 1: like every once in a while, you're gonna get like

1234
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: a Patrick Mahomes or somebody like that. But you know,

1235
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 1: a guy like Josh Allen. I think you get to

1236
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 1: the postseason with a guy like josh Awen and you

1237
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 1: win as many games and kind of beat expectations as

1238
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 1: much as you do with Josh Allen because of great coaching,

1239
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 1: and that gets you there. But once you're there, you know,

1240
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 1: when the quarter like the quarterback mismatch is that great,

1241
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 1: you know, that's when I think, you know, it starts

1242
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 1: to there's only so much you can do.

1243
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 3: And I think that's why you that kind of.

1244
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 1: Plays into that that record for these first time quarterbacks

1245
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 1: that you get to the postseason and maybe maybe you

1246
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 1: do have a disadvantage, you know in terms of coaching,

1247
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 1: but you're going up against de Shaun Watson now, and

1248
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 1: you're going up against Sean Watson with with you know,

1249
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: three guys that he can you know at receiver that

1250
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:17,760
Speaker 1: you know you're you have good corners, they have good receivers.

1251
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 1: I think that this game, I know a lot of

1252
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: total has been kind of bet up here a little

1253
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:26,040
Speaker 1: bit since it opened. I think open at forty one

1254
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 1: and half of it's up to forty two and a

1255
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 1: half I've seen forty three at spots. Uh, you know

1256
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: a lot of people kind of talking about these these

1257
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 1: overs and the indoors, and I think that might be

1258
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:38,359
Speaker 1: contributing to it. But again, that really all is when

1259
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 1: you're talking about two teams that already would kind of

1260
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:44,439
Speaker 1: combine to be an above average NFL final score, which

1261
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 1: is usually in that in that forty five and a

1262
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: half range, and.

1263
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 3: That's not the case for these two teams.

1264
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 1: So I think if this this thing continues to get

1265
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 1: bet up, you know, if it hits forty three, if

1266
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 1: it hits forty four, definitely, if it hits forty three,

1267
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 1: I think even I'm probably going to look at look

1268
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: at the under and to see what the best line

1269
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,400
Speaker 1: I can get, because, uh, this is a spot. I mean,

1270
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 1: the Bills in general, we know that McDermott and this

1271
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 1: is one of the ways McDermott kind of tries to

1272
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: keep these sticks close. You know, they're gonna they're gonna

1273
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 1: play good defense. They're gonna they're not gonna they're gonna

1274
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: they're not gonna be overly aggressive in terms of what

1275
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: they do. You know, Josh Allen may be over aggressive.

1276
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 1: It could it could cost them it hasn't as much

1277
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 1: lately as kind of reeled it in, but when when

1278
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 1: they're a road underdog, the under is ten and one.

1279
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 1: Just just missed for the first time all year in

1280
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 1: uh I think it was the Patriots game. Yeah, right,

1281
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 1: So this is something where we've seen, you know, the

1282
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 1: Texans have been kind of in this there've been a

1283
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 1: team that they're not necessarily lighting it up or anything

1284
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 1: when they're at home either, like when they're at home

1285
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 1: favorite under Bill O'Brien twenty three and fourteen towards the

1286
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 1: under as well four and two this season, so you know,

1287
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 1: this is a defense.

1288
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:55,720
Speaker 3: That plays better at home. Watt back is big.

1289
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 1: I think Beasley will be a key just for the

1290
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 1: Bills to kind of stay in this game aim and

1291
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 1: I think he will be able to kind of move

1292
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 1: the chains for them. The texts are number thirty two

1293
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:09,640
Speaker 1: in DVOA over the middle, so be easily. I mean,

1294
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:12,600
Speaker 1: maybe a guy with Dawson Knox has like an unexpected

1295
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: big game or something like that. I think he's sneaky

1296
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 1: in DFS or betting the over on his his prop.

1297
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:21,479
Speaker 1: But I think it'll be just a one of those

1298
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 1: hard fought games where the bills coaching advantage will keep

1299
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 1: him in it. But yeah, I took I already took

1300
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 1: the Texans that at two and a half. I'd like

1301
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 1: them three and under, and probably looking to bet that

1302
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: under as the line if the line continues to increase

1303
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:38,799
Speaker 1: as we get later in the week, if you know,

1304
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 1: if a guy like Fuller is like, yeah, he's good

1305
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 1: to go and things like that nature, I think I

1306
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 1: think the over will tick up leading up to kickoff

1307
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 1: either way. So so that's what I'm kind of looking

1308
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:50,680
Speaker 1: to do here is that's that's that's my general feelings

1309
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 1: kind of game.

1310
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 3: I think it's it's going to be a close one.

1311
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a harder, frault one,

1312
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:56,719
Speaker 1: and that tends to lead a little under All right,

1313
00:56:56,760 --> 00:57:00,319
Speaker 1: let's close it out with our moneyline underdog, our way

1314
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:02,480
Speaker 1: segment and for this week. I mean, I know it's

1315
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 1: not necessarily there's only really four underdogs here, so.

1316
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 3: Just I guess general feel like favorite underdog.

1317
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 1: I think I know already where you're going with this,

1318
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:14,959
Speaker 1: But which underdog do you like the most?

1319
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 2: Well, I've already done enough Eagles, so I'm going to

1320
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 2: go with the Titans because I think that it's It

1321
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 2: seems like either New England is going to be able

1322
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 2: to move the ball and then Brady is right and

1323
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 2: tent the moment is too big for Tannehill and the

1324
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 2: Patriots roll, or there are real issues here and Tennessee

1325
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: wins this game. I just if there are these issues

1326
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 2: that I'm seeing on paper are real, I think the

1327
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 2: Tennessee could win this game, but there's a chance that

1328
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 2: New England blows them out, as we've seen in the past.

1329
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 2: So I'll throw off the Titans, Okay.

1330
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, Like if it wasn't in Foxborough, I

1331
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 1: think I think I would I think I would like

1332
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 1: to pick a lot more. I don't see it happening

1333
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: in Foxborough. Could be wrong, but I'm going to go

1334
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: with the Vikings number one. I think just from a

1335
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 1: value perspective, kind of the same reason.

1336
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 3: You know, you look at the.

1337
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: Patriots and you know, on paper they kind of look

1338
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 1: infallible and then they kind of stumble. Same thing with

1339
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 1: the Saints. You know, they look they can look good

1340
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 1: for so many so long, We've seen it happen, especially

1341
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 1: in these playoffs. With the Vikings in particular. You know,

1342
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 1: just a few things in the game, few breaks go

1343
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 1: the Vikings way, and next thing you know, you're working

1344
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 1: up and the Saints are going home. So I think

1345
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of value in terms of the

1346
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 1: fact that the spread is already off with with with

1347
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 1: the Saints Vikings as we talked about, I think we

1348
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 1: both agree that it should probably be closer to six,

1349
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 1: and that would.

1350
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 3: Then you know, change the money line.

1351
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 1: The money line is also inflated, you know, going along

1352
00:58:38,680 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 1: with that spread. So I think you're getting value there already,

1353
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 1: and then on top of that, you're just you're getting

1354
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: the best odds of all the money line still on

1355
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 1: the on the slate, and I think this is a

1356
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 1: spot where anything can happen. I don''t do I think

1357
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 1: the Vikings like do I think it's a better than

1358
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 1: fifty percent is obviously not.

1359
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 3: But talking about moneyline value here, so give me the

1360
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 3: give give me the.

1361
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 2: Best thoughts, I would be nervous rep someday, seriously.

1362
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean, man, yeah, that it's it's gonna be a

1363
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 1: crazy environment. Like I think the best thing for the

1364
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: Saints would be if they were able to kind of

1365
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 1: just jump out to lead and you know, play from

1366
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 1: ahead the whole game. And not really have to worry

1367
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 1: about it, because if it's one of those like back

1368
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 1: and forth things, I think it's going to just be

1369
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 1: in everyone's minds, and you know, bad things God to

1370
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 1: happen for the Saints when when it's too close for comfort.

1371
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 3: So it should be an interesting slate.

1372
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 1: And speaking of the Patriots, today's coaches pep talk comes

1373
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:37,320
Speaker 1: to us via the two thousand film The Patriot, and

1374
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:40,920
Speaker 1: going to dedicate this to the Patriots. They have to

1375
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 1: get back to what they're doing, and if they do,

1376
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 1: I think they can beat the Titans in a major way.

1377
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 1: I think that this could be a competitive game. But

1378
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: the Patriots, even with the problem they've had down the

1379
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 1: stretch on offense, I think they can blow out the Titans.

1380
00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:55,440
Speaker 1: They have to get back to it. It's in Foxborough.

1381
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 1: That's what I'm looking for. Already, Take the Pats. Don't

1382
00:59:58,200 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 1: disappoint me.

1383
00:59:59,000 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 2: Guys.

1384
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 4: Half the men in this church, including you, are as

1385
01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 4: ardent Patriots as I will. You know when you are

1386
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,680
Speaker 4: needed most stop at only words, is that the sort of.

1387
01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:11,200
Speaker 2: Men you are.

1388
01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:14,880
Speaker 4: I ask only that you act upon the beliefs of

1389
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 4: which you have so strongly spoken, and in which you

1390
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 4: so strongly believe.

1391
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 3: We'll see what happens.

1392
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 1: We'll be back next week to break you the same

1393
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 1: breakdown for the divisional round. We have, of course the

1394
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:30,479
Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex Pod and all that. In the meantime, Stuck,

1395
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 1: what you are you doing? Are what's going on in

1396
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 1: college for this next week?

1397
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll have a college pod out for the weekend

1398
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:40,880
Speaker 2: bowls that'll be out on Friday, and then we will

1399
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,440
Speaker 2: have one details TVD about national title. We're definitely have

1400
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 2: a live show in Vegas on that Monday. We might

1401
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 2: also do a podcast ahead of the weekend, so stay

1402
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 2: tuned to the show. A lot more on that in

1403
01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 2: the coming days.

1404
01:00:53,680 --> 01:00:56,479
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and of course be sure to download the Action

1405
01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:59,720
Speaker 1: Network app where you can get live box scores, real

1406
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:02,120
Speaker 1: time odds, and track all the best that you make.

1407
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 1: Of course, you can follow us and all the Action

1408
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 1: Network experts on the app. Stucky is at Stucky too,

1409
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:11,360
Speaker 1: I am at Chris Raybond. You can also follow Stuck

1410
01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 1: and I on Twitter.

1411
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 3: At those same handles. Good luck this weekend. Let's get

1412
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:18,040
Speaker 3: this money.

1413
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 2: Go Paco Cheers. We're finished talking