WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bob Michele & Gautam Mukunda

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea and first of all, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>for staying with us over it. Just to the cacophony

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<v Speaker 2>of newsflow. I don't remember the last quiet day. It's

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<v Speaker 2>out there somewhere ten days ago or so, but every

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<v Speaker 2>day has just been literally we're blowing up the show

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<v Speaker 2>in real time. We did that today with a five

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<v Speaker 2>four Supreme Court decision, and on we will go. Eric

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<v Speaker 2>Molla leading our coverage there. We's got like four or

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<v Speaker 2>five interns helping out, but I'll tell you it's twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four to seven to just try to emphasize and wait,

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<v Speaker 2>what the ducks are? We were advantaged today. Bob Michael

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<v Speaker 2>showed up driving all of mister Diamond's fixed income effort

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<v Speaker 2>at JP Morgan. Hugely important job and with a great

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<v Speaker 2>team around him. Bob Michael had a lot to say,

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<v Speaker 2>and particularly the tariff impact in all of this killing

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<v Speaker 2>the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>A month ago, everyone and the market looked at taris

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<v Speaker 3>as an impulse to hire inflation. Today they're looking at

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<v Speaker 3>it as a drag on growth. The material one. I

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<v Speaker 3>tend to look at taris as economy killers. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>you got a price shock higher. But that's going to

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<v Speaker 3>dial down aggregate final demand. And that's what I think

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<v Speaker 3>the FED will be focusing on. They're going to be

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<v Speaker 3>laser focused on the labor market. They're going to see

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<v Speaker 3>if businesses and households retrench.

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<v Speaker 2>Bob Michael there in the summary of his coupon discussion

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<v Speaker 2>was these are attractive yields, grabbed them. Now. He didn't

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<v Speaker 2>say so much extenduration, but just we're back to some

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<v Speaker 2>form of normal bond market that we knew ages ago.

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<v Speaker 2>We heard that from others today as well. With great

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<v Speaker 2>presidential perspective from the Kennedy School of Harvard and now

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<v Speaker 2>at Yale School of Management, got to Makunda joined us.

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<v Speaker 2>His book Picking Presidents is really interesting. It's a twisted

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<v Speaker 2>book about how we go about our process. He of

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<v Speaker 2>course listened to the Joint Session speech last night. He

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<v Speaker 2>was really quite heated about some of the items the

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<v Speaker 2>President spoken.

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<v Speaker 4>I used ginormous on a daily basis and classhops, so

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<v Speaker 4>it's definitely Yale work. It is huge. The tariffs are

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<v Speaker 4>going to hit and then I'll just sort of know.

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<v Speaker 4>We just heard both the President yesterday and then the

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<v Speaker 4>Secretary today proclaiming that Trump was going to balance the budget.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, like like watching the we we all know

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<v Speaker 4>that's not actually going to happen. Like that, that's insurd

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<v Speaker 4>that that's that's the exactly the opposite of what he did.

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<v Speaker 4>But the plans that the Republicans are talking about involved

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<v Speaker 4>huge cuts to medicaid as essentially not that's not a

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<v Speaker 4>forecast is it is the only way to make the

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<v Speaker 4>arithmetic work, and arithmetic yields no man. So given those consequences,

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<v Speaker 4>the distributional effects that these are going to be very large,

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<v Speaker 4>and the low income voters who Trump remarkably captured in

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty four for the sort of the first time

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<v Speaker 4>in the history of the Republican Party, they're the ones

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<v Speaker 4>who are going to take this in the teeth harder

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<v Speaker 4>than anybody else.

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<v Speaker 2>Professor mccunde of Yale University. We'll keep this short. Today's busy, busy, busy.

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<v Speaker 2>We hope that you are listening to thank you for

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<v Speaker 2>your support and your commute across the nation. Good morning

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<v Speaker 2>idea