1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 2: A single best idea and first of all, thank you 3 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 2: for staying with us over it. Just to the cacophony 4 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 2: of newsflow. I don't remember the last quiet day. It's 5 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 2: out there somewhere ten days ago or so, but every 6 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: day has just been literally we're blowing up the show 7 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: in real time. We did that today with a five 8 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: four Supreme Court decision, and on we will go. Eric 9 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: Molla leading our coverage there. We's got like four or 10 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 2: five interns helping out, but I'll tell you it's twenty 11 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: four to seven to just try to emphasize and wait, 12 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 2: what the ducks are? We were advantaged today. Bob Michael 13 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 2: showed up driving all of mister Diamond's fixed income effort 14 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 2: at JP Morgan. Hugely important job and with a great 15 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: team around him. Bob Michael had a lot to say, 16 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: and particularly the tariff impact in all of this killing 17 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 2: the economy. 18 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: A month ago, everyone and the market looked at taris 19 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 3: as an impulse to hire inflation. Today they're looking at 20 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 3: it as a drag on growth. The material one. I 21 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 3: tend to look at taris as economy killers. So yeah, 22 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 3: you got a price shock higher. But that's going to 23 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,759 Speaker 3: dial down aggregate final demand. And that's what I think 24 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 3: the FED will be focusing on. They're going to be 25 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 3: laser focused on the labor market. They're going to see 26 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 3: if businesses and households retrench. 27 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 2: Bob Michael there in the summary of his coupon discussion 28 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 2: was these are attractive yields, grabbed them. Now. He didn't 29 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: say so much extenduration, but just we're back to some 30 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 2: form of normal bond market that we knew ages ago. 31 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 2: We heard that from others today as well. With great 32 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: presidential perspective from the Kennedy School of Harvard and now 33 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: at Yale School of Management, got to Makunda joined us. 34 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 2: His book Picking Presidents is really interesting. It's a twisted 35 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 2: book about how we go about our process. He of 36 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 2: course listened to the Joint Session speech last night. He 37 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: was really quite heated about some of the items the 38 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 2: President spoken. 39 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 4: I used ginormous on a daily basis and classhops, so 40 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 4: it's definitely Yale work. It is huge. The tariffs are 41 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 4: going to hit and then I'll just sort of know. 42 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 4: We just heard both the President yesterday and then the 43 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 4: Secretary today proclaiming that Trump was going to balance the budget. 44 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 4: I mean, like like watching the we we all know 45 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 4: that's not actually going to happen. Like that, that's insurd 46 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 4: that that's that's the exactly the opposite of what he did. 47 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 4: But the plans that the Republicans are talking about involved 48 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 4: huge cuts to medicaid as essentially not that's not a 49 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 4: forecast is it is the only way to make the 50 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 4: arithmetic work, and arithmetic yields no man. So given those consequences, 51 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 4: the distributional effects that these are going to be very large, 52 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 4: and the low income voters who Trump remarkably captured in 53 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 4: twenty twenty four for the sort of the first time 54 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 4: in the history of the Republican Party, they're the ones 55 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 4: who are going to take this in the teeth harder 56 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 4: than anybody else. 57 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 2: Professor mccunde of Yale University. We'll keep this short. Today's busy, busy, busy. 58 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 2: We hope that you are listening to thank you for 59 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 2: your support and your commute across the nation. Good morning 60 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 2: to ninety nine and one FM in Washington, ninety two 61 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: nine in Boston, and of course our flagship Bloomberg eleven 62 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 2: three to zero in New York. We're on YouTube, subscribe 63 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg Podcasts. Humbled by the growth there, Thank you, 64 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 2: and we are out on YouTube. Podcast It's single best 65 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: idea