1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day, if Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,880 Speaker 1: dot Com, the radio plus mobile app and on your radio. 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters. 4 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett. The selling continues with the SMP five 5 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: hundred index down four tens of one percent, down nine 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: points now to seventy two. That is the most in 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: more than a week. Energy producers are tumbling along with 8 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: the price of crude. Bank shares sinking on speculation interest 9 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: rates won't rise this year. Right now, we've got the 10 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: tenure up twelve thirty seconds, the yield one point five percent, 11 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: crude oil West Texas Intermediate down two point nine percent, 12 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: tumbling a dollar twenty five apparel forty one fifty two 13 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: on West Texas Intermediate, Crude gold up five ninety then 14 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: scaining four tens of one percent to thirty eight, and 15 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: the SMP down nine, drop of four tens of one 16 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: percent to down down sixty a drop of three tens 17 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett, and that's a Boomburg 18 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: business flash. You're listening to taking stock with Bim Box 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: and Kathleen Hayes on Bloomberg radio. Last November, Turkey is 20 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: shot down a Russian bomber on the Syrian border, and 21 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: just this week the leaders of Russia and Turkey are 22 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 1: patching up their quarrel and pledging to restore close economic relations. Indeed, 23 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: the Russian President Vladimir Prutin said that Russian trade sanctions 24 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: on Turkey would be phased out step by step. Here 25 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: to tell us more is Corey shake Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, 26 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: Stanford University. And she is also a former White House 27 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 1: Director for Defense Strategy at the National Security Council, who 28 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: served under President George W. Bush and was an advisor 29 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: to the McCain Palin campaign. Corey, thanks very much for 30 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: being with us. You know, you've written a new book 31 00:01:55,320 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: called Warriors and Citizens, An Analysis of public added who. 32 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: It's about defense issues. What is the public attitude now 33 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: about Russia and Turkey and why should we be paying attention? 34 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: Attitudes are pretty negative in the United States, both about 35 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: Russia and about the Ardawan government Turkey, and they're negative 36 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: for good reasons. What I think we should be concerned 37 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: about in the Putin aird Wan summit these last couple 38 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 1: of days is the deal that they made for the 39 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: South Stream pipeline. I think both of those two governments 40 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: see a strong interest in showing Europe and the United 41 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 1: States that they can be troubled for us if we 42 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: want to be judgmental about their bad behavior. When you 43 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: say being a judgmental, what do you mean any specifics? Well, 44 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: for example, the Aardwan government has arrested sixteen thousand people 45 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: in the aftermaths as a coup attempt a couple of 46 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: weeks ago. They've fired thousands of teachers, thousands of judges, 47 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,839 Speaker 1: and the United States, uh WE and the Europeans had 48 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: supported democratic governance and opposed the coup. The Turkish government 49 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 1: believes that we have no business making judgments about their 50 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 1: political crackdown in the aftermath of the coup. Now, taking 51 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: a look at the economics of the issue, Turkey's exports 52 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: to Russia in the first half of this year fell 53 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: sixty percent compared to the same period last year. Do 54 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 1: you believe that these talks will change that? No, not really. 55 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: I think these are both government These are both economies 56 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: that are under strain. Russia because it's basically as a 57 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: sole product economy with oil and gas, and Turkey because 58 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: the political crackdown domestically in Turkey has had very bad 59 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: economic effects. So whereas eight or nine years ago, the 60 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: Turkish economy was the envy of the Middle East and 61 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: it looked like they were getting a lot of things right, 62 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: the choices that the government has made economically and politically 63 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: have really ground the economy down. Well. You've mentioned the 64 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: turk Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, but there's 65 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: also the nuclear plant that's being built by Russia in Turkey. 66 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: M Yeah, Russia is in the business of building nuclear 67 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 1: power plants, and in my judgment that Turkish government is 68 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 1: making such a big deal about this as a counterbalance 69 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 1: to the Iranian nuclear agreement, that the Turks want to 70 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: show that they have the potential to be a nuclear 71 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: weapons state as an excursion from nuclear energy if they 72 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: don't like the way five or ten years from now 73 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 1: the US Irani nuclear deal plays out. That's a very 74 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: significant statement and that affects US politics. I want to 75 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: turn your attention now to the US election, because you 76 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: are one of many signatories to a letter rejecting the 77 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: Republican candidate Donald Trump. Tell us about that. I and 78 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: the other fifty or so people who signed the letter 79 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: are all people who've worked in senior national security jobs 80 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:22,239 Speaker 1: um close to the president, and all of us feel 81 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: very strongly that Donald Trump doesn't, by character, temperament, or 82 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,919 Speaker 1: policy position, have what is needed to be a commander 83 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: in chief. We feel very strongly that he's an actual 84 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: danger to the country. Have you received any reaction and 85 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: criticism or response to your assigning Tell us about any 86 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: anecdote that you might have. UM, well, I think there 87 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: are a lot of people who share our concerns. Those 88 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: of us who signed the letter. Some of us, myself included, 89 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: are willing to go far enough to say that we 90 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 1: would be willing to vote for Hillary Clinton. Most of 91 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: the letter signers are not there, but they we felt 92 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: like we really had a responsibility because of our experience 93 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: to give our judgment publicly. That has created a pretty 94 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: strong backlash from Trump supporters. Corey Lewandowski had a lot 95 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: of nasty things to say about me, and seeing any 96 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: other day and everybody else's we're seeing the same kind 97 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: of feedback from Trump supporters, which leads us to believe 98 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: that we were right to speak out because this is 99 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: exactly the kind of intemperate, um personal attack that doesn't 100 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 1: address the polishy issues, and that reinforces the concerns we 101 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 1: have about his temperament. Now, in addition to your most 102 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: recent book, Warriors and Citizens, your publications include State of Disrepair, 103 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: Fixing the Culture and Practices of the State Department. And 104 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: previously you were the Director for Defense Strategy and Requirements 105 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: on the National Security Council. So I would imagine that 106 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: you have experienced and information that would lead you to 107 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: bolster these conclusions. Can you share some of them with us? Sure? 108 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: I mean, you don't have to be a a superior 109 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: economist to understand that Donald Trump's proposal to slab of 110 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: pariff on anything coming from China would be enormously disruptive 111 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: and damaging to the supply chains of American companies and 112 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: would constrict our own economy. The kinds of things he 113 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: says about punishing America's allies, and the coziness he has 114 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: towards authoritarian governments, the number of people around him who 115 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: are directly connected to Vladiman putin the way he suggests 116 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: that the Russians should be hacking Hillary Clinton and the 117 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: d n C. These are all damaging statements, even if 118 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: Donald Trump isn't elected, and if he were elected, we 119 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: believe is that it would we the signers of the latter, 120 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: believe that it would actually make it much harder for 121 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: America's friends to help us in the world, much easier 122 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: for America's adversaries to pick up ground against us, and 123 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: virtually impossible for our economy to continue the even the 124 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: modeling recovery it has had. That it's so important to 125 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: America's well being as a country, into our social cohesion. 126 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: I want to bring NATO into the conversation, if you 127 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: don't mind, because in addition to holding the Distinguished Chair 128 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,719 Speaker 1: of International Security Studies at West Point and served on 129 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: the faculties of JOHNS Hopkins School of International Studies, you 130 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: also worked on projects creating NATO's Allied Command Transformation. Turkey 131 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: is a member of NATO. What do these comments mean 132 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: to Turkey? And then maybe perhaps your thoughts on other 133 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: NATO allies. Sure, the Turkish American relationship is a difficult 134 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: one because you know, ten years ago it looked as though, 135 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: uh then Prime Minister Erdolan was going to be a 136 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: successful model for an Islamist democrat, somebody who whose faith 137 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: was a prominent part both of their personal story, but 138 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: also of their political movement who was nonetheless navigating that 139 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: space in a way fostering of prosperity and fostering of 140 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 1: liberty in Turkey, and that is no longer the case, 141 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: and it hasn't been a case for several years now, 142 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 1: and so it's a tough relationship. But we in the 143 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: Turk share a common interest in Turkey being stable, being secure, 144 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: and in Turkey continuing to be such a generous host 145 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: too refugees from Syria and a stabilizing force in the 146 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: Middle East. It's hard work with the Turks to work 147 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: on those common but it will be much harder and 148 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: it will be much more dangerous for the United States 149 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 1: if we let go of Turkey's hand and cut them loose, 150 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: as I think that kind of dark hints about their 151 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: nuclear proliferation suggests. We need to help the Turks get 152 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 1: this right. Uh. And that's why it's an important relationship 153 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 1: and why Donald Trump shouldn't be calling our NATO alliance 154 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: guarantees into questions. It's even scarier for NATO's members who 155 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 1: are on Russia's borders, Astonias, the other Baltic states, Poland. 156 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: These countries made an extraordinarily brave transition away from communism 157 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: to free markets, to free societies, and our commitment to them, 158 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: help stabilize them and help them make brave choices. Donald 159 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: Trump just doesn't seem to recognize that. Thank you very 160 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: much for joining us Corey Shake as a research fellow 161 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. You can follow 162 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 1: her on Twitter at Corey with A k R CHIC 163 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: s C H A k P. Thank you very much, 164 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: her new book, Warriors and Citizens. This is taking Stock. 165 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox, and this is Bloomberg.