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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's good. We'reout further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 3: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna leave it up there.

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Speaker 1: You couldn't make that if you try that again. Absolutely

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Speaker 1: trying to Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. NBA Finals Edition,

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Speaker 1: possibly the last pregame or episode of the season for us,

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Speaker 1: which is wild, but that comes on the heels of

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Speaker 1: the the Milwaukee Bucks finally finally hitting some shots in

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Speaker 1: Game five to take a three to two lead one

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Speaker 1: twenty three, one nineteen. They are now one win away

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Speaker 1: from an NBA title. Joining me as always a Brandon

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Speaker 1: Anderson and Rockeem Palmer. We'll talk about game six, we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about futures for the series that are left remaining,

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about MVP. We'll do all of that and

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Speaker 1: more of our analysis can be found in the Action

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Speaker 1: Network app, which you can download on your mobile device

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Speaker 1: right now. It's the best way for you to track

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Speaker 1: your bets, get up to the second lines, information on

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Speaker 1: where the money is at. All the information that you need,

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Speaker 1: including those things like the sharps came in on Milwaukee,

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Speaker 1: which that made me nervous right as I was deciding

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Speaker 1: to bet on the Suns. All of the information in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app. Make sure I download that. A

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Speaker 1: reminder that all of today's odds are provided by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. And

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Speaker 1: if you like the show, be on the lookout because

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be launching our NBA Feed in the coming

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Speaker 1: weeks where we'll be doing multi week episodes throughout the

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Speaker 1: off season covering free agency. We'll do an episode on

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Speaker 1: the draft, get you stuff for draft props, looking at futures.

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Speaker 1: We'll have guests, all sorts of great stuff. It's going

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Speaker 1: to be a great show. Be on the lookout for

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Speaker 1: the Action Network at NBA podcast Feed. All right, Jets

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Speaker 1: in the slacks. Last night we had some victory lapping

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Speaker 1: on bets we didn't even make, which which which I

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Speaker 1: did not enjoy. I will start. I want to start

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Speaker 1: with Rahiem al Rahim. I'm gonna give you my view

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Speaker 1: on this game because we were kind of on opposite sides.

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Speaker 1: Did you bet the Bucks last night? I here's the thing.

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Speaker 4: I took the Sun's first quarter and then came back

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Speaker 4: and took the Bucks plus ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I saw that pre yeah, pre game.

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Speaker 4: I just I felt like I was just you know,

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Speaker 4: I wanted to play the safe angle, so and I

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Speaker 4: felt like that was the best way to do it.

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Speaker 1: No, you were I mean, you were profited, so you

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Speaker 1: came out right. Everybody in our group except me took

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Speaker 1: Sons or Bucks plus ten and a half. I was

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Speaker 1: not willing to. Like. My concern was that I would

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Speaker 1: wind up with like a Sun's Like I was just

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to do it. I felt I felt

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Speaker 1: good about the sense. Here's my theory in last night.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I was wrong. I stile don't. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: I'll admit it when I just completely get one wrong.

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Speaker 1: I've just been wrong before. I've just been like, wow,

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Speaker 1: they just don't match up at all. The we always

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Speaker 1: talk about shooting quality and look like a lot of

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Speaker 1: this is like it is variant, Like you will have

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Speaker 1: variants in a one game sample quite a bit, Like

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Speaker 1: you can have like plus twenties and plus thirties and

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Speaker 1: things like that, especially for individual players. Last night was

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Speaker 1: the highest differential the Bucks have had in a playoff

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Speaker 1: game this season. They were a plus sixteen between their

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Speaker 1: actual EFG and their expected EFG at plus sixteen. That

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Speaker 1: is twice what their second highest was coming into the

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Speaker 1: night at plus eight. That's how well the Milwaukee Bucks

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Speaker 1: shot last night. And you can say, but the Sun

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Speaker 1: shot the lights out of the first quarter. I expected

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Speaker 1: that to shoot the lights out in the first quarter.

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Speaker 1: They're at home in a two to two series coming back,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot to kind of get into. I don't

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Speaker 1: feel like the Suns were the wrong side. I feel

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Speaker 1: like the shot variants finally went the Bucks way, which

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Speaker 1: I had basically bet like, okay, Like every time that

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Speaker 1: I bound the Bucks and lost, I was like, I

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Speaker 1: guess we just can't try them to ever have it

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Speaker 1: go their way. And the one time that I go

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Speaker 1: heavy against them, the shot variance comes through on there.

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Speaker 1: And you like the Bucks in the series. You like

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Speaker 1: Bucks and six the last time that we did a podcast,

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Speaker 1: you liked the value on Milwaukee like you felt like

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Speaker 1: this series had just turned. This will be I think

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Speaker 1: like one of how many of these O two the

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Speaker 1: other team ones of winning series have you bet on

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Speaker 1: because it feels like you like the Thunder in two

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Speaker 1: thousand and twelve versus the Spur, I was I wasn't

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Speaker 1: back then, okay, but you've liked a number of the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: you like the Raptors in twenty and nineteen, like a

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Speaker 1: number of these series where it's been O two and

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Speaker 1: you'd gone the other way.

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Speaker 4: I think there's always there's always a common theme in

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Speaker 4: all of them. There's always a game in which they

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Speaker 4: should have won. So if you look at the Raptors,

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Speaker 4: it was probably game one. If you look at the Bucks,

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Speaker 4: it was probably game two. So there's always a game

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Speaker 4: in which they should have won. And then there's a

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Speaker 4: turning point in which some the clicks to where they

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Speaker 4: figure something out or they have such a huge advantage

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Speaker 4: to where the other team can't overcome it. And for me,

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Speaker 4: it was the rebounding. And also I noticed that in

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Speaker 4: the like I had preconceived notions coming into the series

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Speaker 4: that the Suns would be able to dominate in the clutch,

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Speaker 4: and they didn't do that in game three. In Game four,

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Speaker 4: when I saw that, I'm just like, you know what,

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Speaker 4: the Bucks got this. They're gonna get more possessions at

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Speaker 4: some point, the shots are gonna fall because they're you know,

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Speaker 4: they're getting good shots. And then also they started to

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Speaker 4: limit the son's three point attempts and you start to

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Speaker 4: see Devin Booker playing more isoball and I think Brandon

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Speaker 4: handed it on it.

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Speaker 1: At some point, if Devin book is gonna go out

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Speaker 1: there and just score forty.

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Speaker 4: Points and that's how he's gonna beat us, I think

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Speaker 4: the Bucks have got to be celebrating. So I felt

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Speaker 4: like as long as this, if they got a good

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Speaker 4: game out of Middleton and Giannis or Drew and Giannis,

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Speaker 4: they're gonna win win this series. And then they just

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Speaker 4: happened to get a good game out of all three

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Speaker 4: of them on the role.

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Speaker 1: So I just I've really felt good about it. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's I want to pause there. Second chance points. Last

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Speaker 1: night Sun's fourteen Bucks twelve, So you don't get offensive

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Speaker 1: rebounds if you're making everything, that's an advantage. That's fair.

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Speaker 1: But like this is the big thing is that, like

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying that, I don't even I don't think

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Speaker 1: your your I don't think your cap on the series

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Speaker 1: is wrong at this point. What I do feel like

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Speaker 1: is that last night was the very rare exception to

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Speaker 1: what always happens, which is like the Bucks never get

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Speaker 1: things to go their way, like they didn't go their way.

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Speaker 1: In twenty and nineteen, Fred van Vliet shot a bazillion

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Speaker 1: percent and all of the Bucks missed threes. They didn't

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Speaker 1: go their way in twenty and twenty when Jay Crowder

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Speaker 1: became an inferno, much like he isn't for much of

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Speaker 1: this series, though he's cooled down after some games. And

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Speaker 1: again everybody missed everything. And then this game and Drew Holliday,

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Speaker 1: who is quite honestly and I had a great play,

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Speaker 1: like he had a great series versus the Heat, and

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Speaker 1: then was basically bad up until right up until Game

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Speaker 1: five when they needed him absolutely most. That's why I

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Speaker 1: guess you trade five picks for him. He has his

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Speaker 1: best game of the playoffs. Brandon, I like, I'm asking you,

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Speaker 1: was I wrong to bet on the Suns last night?

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Speaker 3: I mean, the problem with last night's game is it

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Speaker 3: was so coin flippy that all the bets were right

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Speaker 3: and all the bets were wrong all at the same time. Like,

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Speaker 3: the only bad play was if anyone was too overconfident

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Speaker 3: in what their play was. Because the danger right now

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Speaker 3: is being too over confident. The other direction, because that's

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Speaker 3: what we do a sports fans, is to lock in

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Speaker 3: on the thing we know is happening. What we know

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Speaker 3: is we've played five games, and each team had one confident,

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Speaker 3: comfortable win, and then there were three coin flip big games.

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Speaker 3: This series has been awesome because it's been so in

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Speaker 3: the middle. We don't know what's happening, and that's frustrating

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Speaker 3: as it better, but it's great as a fan. It's

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Speaker 3: been a lot of fun to watch.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned not being too confident in your cap, the

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Speaker 1: boneheaded thing that I did yesterday. All right, So, as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned on the show, I've been betting Sons and

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Speaker 1: and Bucks futures off and on, amongst a bunch of

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Speaker 1: different things, like I'm gonna come out ahead. But I'm

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Speaker 1: not just I didn't just bet Sons and Bucks like

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Speaker 1: I bet. I had Net's futures and Lakers futures, and

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Speaker 1: like I basically played the market and took advantage whenever

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Speaker 1: I saw that there was Edie. So I'm in a

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Speaker 1: really good spot here based off of the fact that

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Speaker 1: those odds were longer. My margins on some of the

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Speaker 1: other teams are much more narrow. I'm in a good

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Speaker 1: spot here, and I've been building kind of taken the

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Speaker 1: going back the other way consistently. I noticed that at

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Speaker 1: one book that I operated at, I was heavier on

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Speaker 1: Suns than Bucks. And so Raheem, I was like, okay,

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Speaker 1: all right, so I need to get a position on

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Speaker 1: the Bucks to kind of even this out just at

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Speaker 1: this specific book. Like I'm okay, Like my overall position

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Speaker 1: is good. I can find a middle ground here where

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Speaker 1: I'm still pretty even on outcome, but I can even up.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna just take a loss at this

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Speaker 1: book if it's Bucks. Face off everything that Raheem said.

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Speaker 1: And I looked at the plus one twenty five and

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Speaker 1: I had it on the screen and I had the

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Speaker 1: amount filled in, and I went, wait, wait, wait, the

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Speaker 1: odds are going to be so much better for Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: after they lose Game five. I'll wait after they lose

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Speaker 1: Game five, then I'll come back in on the Bucks

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Speaker 1: and I'll get a much better price because it'll be

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Speaker 1: like plus two hundred or better. And so I didn't

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Speaker 1: and now instead I'm looking at a Bucks minus two

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Speaker 1: hundred money line just for like game whatever, game game six,

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Speaker 1: it it's minus two hundred for games. So I can't

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Speaker 1: even do I can't even get ev on betting the

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Speaker 1: lot because if I bet the spread at minus one ten,

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Speaker 1: which is fine, and they win but don't cover, I

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Speaker 1: lose both ways. I just should have bet the one

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I got greedy. I was like, no, no,

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Speaker 1: I was so confident the sounds were gonna win this

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Speaker 1: game that even with it was a lesson of like, no, no, okay,

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Speaker 1: you've got ev right now. You think you think plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five is probably eavye because you think it's closer,

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Speaker 1: you think it's really a coin flip. But you know what,

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Speaker 1: it almost felt like the plus one twenty five it

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Speaker 1: would It was almost it was almost telling us that

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Speaker 1: the game would be close. Yeah, Like because I.

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Speaker 4: Was looking at it, I'm like, I like the books,

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Speaker 4: but I I plus one twenty five it's just not

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Speaker 4: it's not heavy enough.

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Speaker 1: So I get it. I got totally giddy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean on our podcast last time, at the

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Speaker 3: endach we each made a game five pick, and which

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Speaker 3: made a serious pick. I went back and listened last night,

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Speaker 3: and this is gonna sound like a victory lap. It's not.

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Speaker 3: It's the opposite because I didn't actually do the right

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Speaker 3: thing that I said to do, which is my pick

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Speaker 3: was Milwaukee money line. You both picked Phoenix, I said

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Speaker 3: Milwaukee money line. However, I said, I don't think the

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Speaker 3: odds are good enough. I felt like it was a

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Speaker 3: coin flip. I felt like Phoenix had the home edge,

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Speaker 3: the plus swan twenty five or whatever the number was.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't good enough. It wasn't a good enough line

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Speaker 3: to bet. And I made a comment of something like

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait, I'm gonna play it like late first quarter,

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Speaker 3: second quarter, the Suns are gonna make that run. And

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Speaker 3: we debate about like, well, you know how much or

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Speaker 3: the sun's up how much did that line really move?

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Speaker 3: And I literally said something like, well, you know, if

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Speaker 3: it gets to like twelve or something, I'm out. So

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Speaker 3: that's what I did. I waited, and then it suddenly

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Speaker 3: it got to that time out. I think it was

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Speaker 3: thirty two to sixteen, And despite everything that I just said,

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Speaker 3: I was like, oh my gosh, this someth's gonna win

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Speaker 3: my fifty. This thing is over. They're hitting every shot,

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Speaker 3: and You're like, I didn't play it. I didn't. I

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Speaker 3: didn't take the risk. I don't know what the line

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Speaker 3: was then, but I guarantee I wasn't plus one twenty

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Speaker 3: five anymore, and that you know, that's that's the exact

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Speaker 3: thing that I was saying to do. Then you get

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Speaker 3: in a moment, and in the moment, you're just like,

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Speaker 3: oh my gosh, Phoenix is forcing every turnover and they're

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Speaker 3: all over the court and they're hitting every shot. They're

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Speaker 3: they're just gonna blow them away. You're already what's happening

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Speaker 3: in game six? And I didn't think that.

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Speaker 1: Our biggest critic of this podcast, Matt Mitchell, producer, who's

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Speaker 1: listen this right now, just cackling, just just laughing his

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Speaker 1: happy ass off as a as a Bucks fan, he

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Speaker 1: bet the Bucks, but guarantee to win in our slack

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Speaker 1: Charles Barkley style, bet them before, bet them live. I

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Speaker 1: think bet them again, like.

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Speaker 3: We had a three three bet.

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Speaker 1: Yep, yep. Just that's so really we should I should

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Speaker 1: just call it quits and Mitchell should just do this

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Speaker 1: podcast for the rest of the rest. Grabbed the money

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Speaker 1: lining gate.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so that's that's what what what that's

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Speaker 3: called is three betting on the turn when you need

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Speaker 3: an inside straight draw on the river and then hitting it.

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Speaker 3: That's what that's called. So congrats on hitting the inside

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Speaker 3: straight We're very happy for you, Matt. We hope that

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Speaker 3: the Bucks come through for you again.

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Speaker 1: Oh boy. Uh so let's look at this going forward,

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Speaker 1: all right, I'm done with sides, just gonna put that

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Speaker 1: out there.

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Speaker 4: It was a coward for that or when I was

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Speaker 4: doing that, like in February March, you kept calling me

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Speaker 4: a coward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, But I got Game two wrong. I

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Speaker 1: went back the other way to hedge on game three,

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Speaker 1: even though I had it right initially. I got Game

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Speaker 1: four right but still lost in terms of I bet

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Speaker 1: the Suns plus four and a half and they got

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Speaker 1: covered in the last minute of the game on a comeback,

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Speaker 1: and then I was I was way off on Game five.

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Speaker 1: So at this point, I just have to be like,

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Speaker 1: it's not even so much that I don't understand, like

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Speaker 1: I don't feel like I don't understand the matchups, because

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Speaker 1: I do. Like I've got like we've talked, some of

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Speaker 1: the stuff that we talked about pre series was completely

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Speaker 1: on point in terms of like the rebounding advantages and

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Speaker 1: where the advantages would be and how like one of

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Speaker 1: the things that I wrote about we talked about this

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Speaker 1: pod was I said the Bucks are very likely to

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Speaker 1: say we're gonna lock on Chris Paul and Devin Booker

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Speaker 1: can do whatever. Like that was we talked about this.

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Speaker 1: That was like, that's probably the best way to go

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Speaker 1: about it, because even though Booker is a good passer,

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Speaker 1: he's not Chris Paul. Yeah and so, and you've honestly

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Speaker 1: seen this. This is the discussion yesterday was was pretty

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Speaker 1: infuriating for me because Suns fans are so defensive of

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Speaker 1: Booker that they can't accept that. It's like, I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying he didn't play well, because he played well in

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Speaker 1: the sense that he made a bunch of shots and

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Speaker 1: they were still gonna lose because of the defense, but

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Speaker 1: like they needed to be able to generate Sun's ball

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Speaker 1: this whole Like they took nineteen threes yesterday. What are

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Speaker 1: you doing. It's twenty twenty one. You can't get beat

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Speaker 1: by the Bucks in three point shooting and win. That's

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Speaker 1: that is not the way.

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Speaker 3: Especially you know when shooting sixty eight percent, when you

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Speaker 3: shoot him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: The one reason why I have to push back on

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Speaker 4: that is because you know, somebody made it a comment

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Speaker 4: on Twitter. Devin Booker was a plus twelve yesterday, So

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Speaker 4: it really was the second quarter in which they lost

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Speaker 4: the when they lost his game, the game up forty

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Speaker 4: three points, they only scored twenty four. At some point,

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Speaker 4: you know, Chris Paul was out there. He's got to

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Speaker 4: stop the bleed.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you could say that, but wait, by the way,

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Speaker 1: Chris Paul's out there, he's got to stop the bleeding.

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Speaker 1: Booker played forty forty three minutes. Like that's true. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So here's the other thing is that I went through

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Speaker 1: and I actually looked at it quarter by quarter. His

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Speaker 1: quarter by quarter splits don't look as good because he

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Speaker 1: was like a plus sixteen in the first quarter. Uh

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Speaker 1: he was, I'm looking this up right now, Devin Booker.

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Speaker 1: He was a plus sixteen in the first. Okay, he

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Speaker 1: struggled in the second, and they got like that's where

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Speaker 1: they the whole team struggled, right, Booker only takes four

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Speaker 1: shots in that quarter, Chris Paul goes three to seven.

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Speaker 1: They're like Booker's and minus five in six minutes. Paul's

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Speaker 1: a minus fifteen. So in the extra minute between when

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Speaker 1: Booker and Paul play, they were minus ten. So that

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Speaker 1: was a really bad stretch because the Bucks started hitting

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Speaker 1: absolutely everything. Then third quarter, this is really important though

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Speaker 1: most of the stuff, Like Booker scored fourteen points on

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Speaker 1: six of eleven shooting in the third quarter, he was

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Speaker 1: still a minus seven. Play the whole quarter, still minus seven.

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Speaker 1: So the idea when we look at the at the

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Speaker 1: entire game plus minus, it tells you that, well, they

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Speaker 1: won the Booker minutes. And what it really comes down

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Speaker 1: to is like they won the first quarter, he didn't

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Speaker 1: play as much when things got absolutely out of control

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Speaker 1: in the second, which was mostly minutes with Janis now

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Speaker 1: on the court, like Cam Johnson wasn't doing anything wrong

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Speaker 1: and he wound up like a minus nineteen in this game,

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Speaker 1: Like he didn't. It's not like you went back and

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Speaker 1: were like, oh man, Cam Johnson got killed. It was

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Speaker 1: just like he was just a bystander that caught the

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Speaker 1: shrapnel of how disastrous this is.

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Speaker 3: It fair to say just to play Devil's Advocate was

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Speaker 3: the disaster in that stretch. You know, obviously plus minus.

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Speaker 3: He can't bring it all down to that because that

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Speaker 3: would also imply that the Bucks should not play Giannis

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Speaker 3: so much because they won the game when he was

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Speaker 3: off the court. Like obviously that's not the argument, But

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Speaker 3: is there an argument that Phoenix's offense just isn't functioning right,

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Speaker 3: can't score enough in those bookroom minutes when he's out

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Speaker 3: and when they're not scoring, then Milwaukee's getting those runouts

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Speaker 3: and getting their easy looks. Is that a thing?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so? Here here's why. So if we

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Speaker 1: go back and we look at at the second quarter, right,

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Speaker 1: they shot of their nineteen, they only shot six, which

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Speaker 1: was you know, higher than the rest of it. But

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Speaker 1: they shot two of six from three. That's just really

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Speaker 1: honestly shooting variants. The bigger problem was the defense, Like

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Speaker 1: the defense in that second quarter was was largely the issue,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of it was like, Okay, look, second

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Speaker 1: quarter they wound up with their Their offense in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter was bad. I'm not denying that it was

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Speaker 1: a ninety six. They also gave up a one set

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Speaker 1: two defensive rating. Okay.

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Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying though, is that those those are related.

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Speaker 1: Like, but I'll disagree with you on this in that

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Speaker 1: the offense is not When we look back at the

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Speaker 1: entire history of these of these Phoenix Suns in the playoffs, Brandon,

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Speaker 1: do you feel like when they've been good on offense

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Speaker 1: that it's been Devin Booker just doing stuff.

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Speaker 3: No, certainly not. I'm not so.

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Speaker 1: This is the thing is like if the if the

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Speaker 1: offense is broken, you don't go like, well that's out

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Speaker 1: the window. Let's just have Devin Booker do some stuff

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Speaker 1: like you you go back and you go like, we

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Speaker 1: gotta we get a This is the big key here.

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Speaker 1: It's not that Devon's necessarily it's not as bad. Is

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Speaker 1: that that this approach of just having Devin Booker go

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Speaker 1: Kobe is not going to work. Like it is not

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Speaker 1: going to work in the modern MBA. It just it

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Speaker 1: will not. Your efficiency will not be high enough. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: their offensive numbers with Booker on the floor were great

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Speaker 1: in part because they had that great first quarter, right like,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have to figure out the biggest thing for

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Speaker 1: me is just this. You either got to put pressure

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Speaker 1: on them at the room with DeAndre Ayton, which they

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Speaker 1: have not done, or you gotta put pressure on them

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Speaker 1: from the three point line. You get a drive and kick.

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Speaker 1: And when they started doing that in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: they got back into it. Like that's what got them

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Speaker 1: back into it was driving and kicking and finding everybody

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Speaker 1: else getting involved honestly, like Booker, he runs out of

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Speaker 1: steam at the end of these games. It's just it's

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Speaker 1: asking too much of Devin Booker to do all of this.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know if that's Booker or Money Williams

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Speaker 1: or whoever, but like he was not looking for guys.

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Speaker 1: He had four potential assists. Potential assists in that game,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna move the ball. But I do go back

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Speaker 1: and forth on this because at the end of it,

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Speaker 1: it's like, look, you can you could have moved the

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Speaker 1: ball and done all this and they're the bucks were

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Speaker 1: just they they everything worked for them, clicked, yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: And I.

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Speaker 4: Just I just had a problem with and I said

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Speaker 4: it before game four. And I know there's times where

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Speaker 4: you don't want to call Tom out and you want

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Speaker 4: to you don't want the defense to get set, but

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Speaker 4: I think you got to call the time out there,

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Speaker 4: you know, down one, you know, seeing what happened in

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Speaker 4: game four in the clutch, Mine's got to draw something up.

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Speaker 1: I like you, I like your heel turn on Money Williams.

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Speaker 1: While everyone's like it's so great to see this for

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Speaker 1: Money Williams, he's such a great guy.

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Speaker 4: Like it's so I'm I'm, I was rooting for him,

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Speaker 4: but I just I just think, to me, he he

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Speaker 4: blew Game four, and I just you know, with the

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Speaker 4: lack of challenges, you know, you get one of those challenges,

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Speaker 4: they probably win the game. And at bare minimum you

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Speaker 4: you called a challenge, and you know Milwaukee was rushing

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Speaker 4: the ball in. So I just I just felt like

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Speaker 4: he just didn't handle the fourth quarter in Game four correctly.

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Speaker 4: And then I just I felt like they really needed

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Speaker 4: a time out there as opposed to you know, because

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Speaker 4: Devin Bookers, he's forcing it, you know.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I agree that Booker forced it. I disagree

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Speaker 3: with the time out there though, because you got one

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Speaker 3: time out left and if I mean he burned, no,

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Speaker 3: but that I thought that was an awesome time out.

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Speaker 3: That's not trying to ice, honest, that's knowing that Giannis

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Speaker 3: has like a fifteen percent higher free throw rate, hitting

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Speaker 3: his free throw a second attempt once it gets in

431
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 3: a rhythm, and at that point when you're when you're

432
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 3: in like the championships on the line and every point matters.

433
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 3: I thought that was a great time out because it

434
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 3: got him out of the rhythm that we you know,

435
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 3: think how many times you see him break the first one,

436
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: hit the second one, and so it's so if you

437
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 3: want the timeout, that's the time you have to switch back,

438
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: because you need to save a time out with that

439
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 3: whatever thirty five or thirty seconds left, because if you

440
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 3: don't score there, you need the timeout to advance to

441
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,959
Speaker 3: set something up. And by the way, you have on

442
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 3: the court Chris Paul, who is like as much of

443
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: a we have a coach on the court as there

444
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 3: has been anywhere in our lifetime, right Like, who would

445
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 3: you rather have as your coach on the floor right now?

446
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: Getting something to set up? The problem is the same

447
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 3: microcosm what we've been talking about that Devin Booker did

448
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 3: Booker ball, and of all times to play Booker ball,

449
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 3: you have Drew Halidy on you. You're driving into Giannis,

450
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 3: who just made one of the greatest finals, the greatest

451
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 3: blocks that we've seen, and you know, he gets he

452
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 3: gets triple teamed, and it felt to me like Holiday

453
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 3: knows Booker is going to shoot there because Holiday collapses

454
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 3: down on him rather than staying out on CP. Chris

455
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 3: Paul is open on that play. You know, if Booker

456
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: can get that pass out, Chris Paul has a wide

457
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 3: open three and we might be having a tight, entirely

458
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 3: different podcast today, So I don't know. I I agree.

459
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 3: I thought game four, I thought they could have managed

460
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 3: things a little differently that that Monty. You know, he's

461
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 3: been following his own guys out a little bit with

462
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 3: how he managed eight and in game three, and then

463
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 3: Booker in Game four, So I definitely don't like how

464
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 3: that's gone. But I don't think anyone cost anything the series.

465
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 3: In Game five, I think Drew Holliday and Giannis made

466
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 3: a play for the Ages at the time when it

467
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 3: had to happen, and that's what happened.

468
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: Said, Yes, that was I said this on Twitter. You

469
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: honestly the only player that makes the block and that

470
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: and finishes that. Lu, He's the only player. Don't bring

471
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 1: me Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis isn't going over there challenge

472
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 1: andre Aiden. If it's a guard, sure, Anthon Davis is

473
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,679
Speaker 1: gonna block him into oblivion. That's the andre Aiden probably

474
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 1: given an either dude making a business decision or making

475
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 1: a touch fowl.

476
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 4: I thought I thought Drew was just insane for even

477
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 4: at something that passed.

478
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, But but Drew Holiday was the last night and

479
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 1: told like if you're Drew Holiday, you're feeling it, and like,

480
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 1: I love the killer instinct. I love I love that

481
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 1: to just be like, no, we're going up like, no,

482
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,679
Speaker 1: we're gonna have top. I got this Like it's like

483
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 1: not like I mean like literally like that. There's no

484
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 1: shock clack at that point. Yep, We're not gonna We're

485
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: not gonna timing out and make you foul. We're not

486
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 1: gonna go into the foul game. No, No, we're dunking

487
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 1: on you. I'm getting the bucket In history?

488
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: Is in history? Is there like what about young like Orlando,

489
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: Magic Shack or or Hakeem or Robinson, Like is there

490
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 3: anybody in history that makes that pair of plays like

491
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,679
Speaker 3: Giannis or is he literally the one who can make.

492
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: The Shack's not making that and Shaq's not turning defensively

493
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 1: quick enough. So no, yeah, it's it's it's Elijah Wan's close.

494
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: But even Elijah Wan is not quick enough to even

495
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: to get up court for the for the lob.

496
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 4: He's not quick enough to get up court for the lot.

497
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 4: But I don't think he's even quick enough to recover

498
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 4: the beat. Yeah, it's a recover on the block where

499
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 4: he was position it.

500
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's that's just.

501
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 1: No, No, I'll disagree there. He Kee would have made it,

502
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,239
Speaker 1: would have made the block he came, would have made

503
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: the block he was. He was good enough defensively, He

504
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: wasn't so far up that he could like he could

505
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: have had such quick feet, he had such quick feet,

506
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: he could have made it. He wouldn't have necessarily been

507
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 1: as in front of it as Jiannest was, but he

508
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 1: would have gotten it from the side and still blocked

509
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: it clean. That's a good that's a good ke Lebron

510
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: maybe yeah, like yeah, I say Lebron, Lebron could have

511
00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: done Young Cleveland shoot maybe even yeah, twenty twelve, Lebron

512
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 1: does that. I think, yeah, yeah, that's but that's it,

513
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: like the that's the list in NBA history. So I

514
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 1: just looked this up. In the playoffs under Mike Budenholzer,

515
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: when the Bucks make more threes than the opponent, they

516
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: are sixteen and two straight up fifteen and three against

517
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 1: the spread. One loss was the Sun's loss earlier in

518
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: the series in Game one. The other one was in

519
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: the last year's series versus the Heat, where everything went

520
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: wrong like they made more threes in that game, and

521
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 1: they only scored one hundred and four points, so.

522
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,959
Speaker 3: It only made one more last night, right, I think

523
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 3: they only had one more.

524
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, they only made one more. But the big thing there,

525
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: Brandon is like they only made one one more, but

526
00:25:55,800 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: two things. One they shot nine more, right, and two,

527
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: if they're gonna have the advantage inside that they do,

528
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 1: you have to counter it with threes, you know, Like

529
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: the formula is Yiannis makes twos and you make threes.

530
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 1: That's got to be the formula. If you're giving them

531
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: the interior and you're not beating him from the outside,

532
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: where are you winning? And the but the I don't

533
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 1: mean to go down this road. Yeah, that's a lie.

534
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:26,959
Speaker 1: I mean to go down this road. So there's all

535
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: the talk about like the analytics, right, like the oh,

536
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 1: the analytics said the mid range game was gone, which

537
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: no it didn't. It said that if you're not good

538
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: at mid range shots, maybe you shouldn't take them, right, Like,

539
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: if you're Andrew Wiggins, maybe you shouldn't take those shots.

540
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: If you're Kevin Durant, you should pick those shots because

541
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 1: you're Kevin Durant and you can hit anything. And Chris Paul,

542
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: I have no problem hitting those. Booker, I don't have

543
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 1: the numbers on his overall mid range. I know he's

544
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 1: really good at the short range jumpers. He's really good

545
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: at getting you in jail in the key inside the paint,

546
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: but not the strictari and hitting jumpers. So I have

547
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: like no problem with those shots. But the entire Sun's

548
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: team when it extremely mid range heavy, like this is

549
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 1: a lot of it with Booker is if you're gonna

550
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: do the Devin Booker solo game Kobe Biro ball, you

551
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: better be hitting threes, and he's not because the Bucks

552
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 1: are guarding him. They're like, if you hit mid range

553
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 1: contested shots, we're fine with it. We're not losing the

554
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: math game.

555
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 3: But but in Phoenix's defense, I mean, if you only

556
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 3: make sixty eight percent of your threes at some point,

557
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 3: you just got to move on and try some hard shots.

558
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 3: You know, if you're just what can you really do

559
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 3: about it?

560
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 1: So here's why I can't bet the sides in Game six,

561
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 1: Other than I've been wrong so so badly in the series.

562
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 1: I feel like the shot variants has shifted three of

563
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: the games, two of the games pretty significantly, and now

564
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: there's like the Bucks added momentum. But here's the thing.

565
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: The Bucks have more like more often shoot below expected

566
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: expectation than they shoot over. The Suns shoot worse on

567
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 1: the road, but they could still win on the road

568
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: if they shoot worse. If the Bucks shoot way worse,

569
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm just trying to guess, like, does

570
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 1: the ball go in not? Do they create good shots not?

571
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 1: Because based off of shot quality, the Suns are way

572
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: up in the series, Like, yeah, way up in the series.

573
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 1: The Suns are still creating way better shots. The Bucks

574
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: have countered that either by getting offensive rebounds, creating turnovers,

575
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: or last night just hitting everything. And so you mentioned

576
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: this earlier, Brandon. I think it's very easy to go

577
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: in and be like, Okay, now everyone's overreacting and going

578
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: into like this is over. The Bucks have got this,

579
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: They're gonna take care of it. But like there is

580
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: I do think that there's such a thing. There are oftentimes,

581
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: especially when you get to this point in the finals,

582
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: when it's just like there's there's one team that just

583
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: simply will not be denied. It's just like we're gonna

584
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 1: win this game, like we're winning the series, and I

585
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 1: will say, look rattled. They for as unflappable and resilient

586
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: as I think that they've been in terms of mentally

587
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: not getting challenged in game. They got pretty rattled when

588
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: they came back last night. That was the first time

589
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: when I really saw like Bridges and eight and Booker

590
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: and even CP to a degree just being very much

591
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 1: like but we we shot the lot, like how how

592
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: are they? How are they up? Like after everything that

593
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: they did, and like, Rahim, you banging this drum of adversity.

594
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: And I mentioned on Twitter and Sunspans with nuts on me,

595
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: So thanks for putting that in my head. So I

596
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: mentioned became a garbage fire.

597
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,280
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626
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: Right him. Do you have do you feel good enough

627
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: to bet on you? Because you've been pretty reluctant to

628
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: bet the series. Do you have an angle that you

629
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: feel like you want to bet for Game six?

630
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: Honestly, I think I would take the bucks. I'm leaning

631
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 4: towards to where you know, Brandon said where he He said,

632
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 4: you don't want to get too overconfident, But I just

633
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 4: think the bucks at home have proven that, you know,

634
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 4: Chris Middleton shows up at home typically, I think Chris

635
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 4: Paul really hasn't they Like, in order for the Suns

636
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 4: to win, they need a great Chris Paul game, and

637
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 4: I'm not sure we're gonna get one at this point.

638
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,959
Speaker 1: Like you said, you, I it's just this is driving

639
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: me up the wall. Okay, Chris Paul last night for

640
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: the South like he Chris Paul for last night, like

641
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: the whole thing was. When he scored a lot, it

642
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,959
Speaker 1: was like, oh, but the turnovers he had won turnover

643
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,479
Speaker 1: last night. He had twenty one points, a nine to fifteen,

644
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: shooting sixty percent from the field. He was three of

645
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: three from three point range. Imagine if he gotten more

646
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: touches eleven assists, one turnover, like defensively he got picked on.

647
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's like Chris Paul always has these

648
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 4: games whereas I say, you look at the stat sheet

649
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 4: and it's just like, oh wow, he didn't have a

650
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 4: bad game. But when you watching that game, it wasn't like,

651
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 4: you know what, this guy completely put his stamp on

652
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 4: the game. And I think to go on the road

653
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 4: after losing back to back games in the fashion that

654
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 4: they did, he's really got to put his stamp on this.

655
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: How is he how is he supposed to put the

656
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: stamp on the game? If he doesn't touch the ball?

657
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 5: We have to touch the ball, right, he has to

658
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 5: touch the ball, And mean, what have we what have

659
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 5: we seen that that leads us to the belief that

660
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 5: he's actually going to touch the ball in the manner

661
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 5: that he did earlier in the playoffs.

662
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: Devin Booker had a forty two point five percent usage

663
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: rate last night. Chris is like the most impactful player

664
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: on this team. But it's not like Chris is two

665
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: thousand and eleven Chris, where it's like if Devin is

666
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: just like calling for the ball and you give it

667
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: to him, because that's what you do when the star

668
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: player calls for the ball and just chucking it every

669
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: single time, even if it's going in. What's Chris supposed

670
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: to do?

671
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 3: That's Chris is the star player, he's supposed to.

672
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: Make No, Devin Booker is the star player. Chris Paul

673
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: was the veteran cast off. Devin gets to call his number,

674
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: and Monnie, if you want to push it into, somebody's

675
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: gonna stop him. That's gotta be Monny Williams being like, no, no, no,

676
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: We're gonna run our offense. We got to run our offense.

677
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: We cannot blame Chris Paul for a forty two point

678
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: five percent usage rate. If he moves the ball, then

679
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: then it's getting back to Chris and he's either finding

680
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: an assist or a pass off the off of the

681
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: gravity that Booker created on his drives because they were

682
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: sending multiple defenders at him, like on the Drew strip.

683
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: Imagine if he passed what's.

684
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 4: The pack to the Suns winning game Game six. Because

685
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 4: to me, it's just like I'm expecting the shooting from

686
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 4: both teams to regress. We all know the shooting regress.

687
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 4: I mean the Bucks are still dominating on the offensive rebounds.

688
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 4: I mean, like in game five, what do they have

689
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 4: a twenty eight offensive rebound rate compared to the Signs

690
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 4: twenty three. So it's just like they're still going to

691
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 4: get more opportunities to score. I expect the Bucks won't

692
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 4: turn the ball over as much as they did in

693
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 4: Game six. So it's just like, I just think if

694
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 4: they're generating more possessions, and you know, both teams aren't hot,

695
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 4: I like the Bucks. I just think it's it's their time.

696
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 4: I think they But I mean, we all know the

697
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 4: Bucks have proven that they can let you down in

698
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 4: the worse spots.

699
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, so look, you ask what the model is here,

700
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 1: here's what it is. Uh, they shoot badly, they still

701
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 1: get they still win the offensive rebound rate, but the

702
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: Suns hit more threes and that counterbalance. Is it? Like

703
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: that's a very easy fix. Yeah. But this I don't

704
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,240
Speaker 1: mean to reduce everything to three pointers, but this literally

705
00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: is the math problem is like you cannot you can

706
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: not be losing inside and then be losing from the perimeter.

707
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: You can't that then you're gonna lose, and you can

708
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 1: I think you can definitely say like, look the Suns

709
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: have shot fewer threes in every game this series. Like,

710
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 1: that's damning that they haven't reversed that trend.

711
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, but.

712
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 1: If the Bucks simply don't play as well in terms

713
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,479
Speaker 1: of their defense, and the Suns are able to create

714
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: a few more looks, then they have the shooters to

715
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 1: be able, I think, to put up enough in an

716
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: ugly game to be able for it to be like,

717
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 1: you know, it was ugly, but they won like the

718
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: Buck meaning, look, we had game one where the Bucks

719
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: missed a bunch of layups, like they just missed layups.

720
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: When the Bucks missed, they missed badly. Brandon, do you

721
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: have like a lean for game game six?

722
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 3: Well, I think I pushed back on what you guys

723
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 3: have just been saying. I think you know, we asked

724
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 3: on a podcast a couple of games ago. I think

725
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 3: maybe we asked after Game two, when the Suns were

726
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 3: up two h when we said, have the Suns played

727
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 3: their A plus game yet? And we agreed they hadn't

728
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 3: at that point. I think that the Bucks just played

729
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: their A plus game.

730
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 1: Agree.

731
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: I don't know what the Bucks can do any better

732
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: than that. That was their A plus game. The Suns

733
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 3: didn't the Sun played an A plus first quarter.

734
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:11,439
Speaker 1: How how was it.

735
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 4: Their A plus game when they had that first quarter?

736
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 4: Had to dip themselves out of the seventeen.

737
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 3: Fair okay in the first yeah, so so the first quarter.

738
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 3: So the Bucks played their A plus second through fourth quarters.

739
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 3: At the very least, it's fair when you when you

740
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: go down sixteen in the first quarter and everyone thinks

741
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 3: it's over, it can't be an A plus. But to

742
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 3: have taken the A plus punch for eighty percent of

743
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 3: the game, let's say, and still have had a shot

744
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 3: at the win. I don't think Phoenix is a much

745
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 3: lower variance team than Milwaukee. I think Phoenix is fine.

746
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 3: I think Phoenix should feel perfectly fine about what happened here.

747
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: So they played really well. If Phoenix could do the

748
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 3: exact same thing on offense, even as much as we're

749
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 3: saying they need more appall, they need a less booker,

750
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: they need a spread out. If they do all that,

751
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 3: hit those shots again, they're gonna win the next game

752
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 3: nine times out of ten, Because nine times out of

753
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 3: ten Milwaukee is not gonna play their eight plus game

754
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: and hit everything that outside of the first quarter that

755
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: was like the barrage. That was the best Milwaukee's done

756
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: all playoffs outside of I guess maybe the Miami series,

757
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 3: but otherwise, like they had, Giannis and Middleton and Drew

758
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 3: all scored twenty five or more points, all on fifty

759
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 3: percent or better. Like all three three guys in a

760
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 3: finals game scored twenty five on good shooting. And I

761
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: don't feel like the Suns should be like the sky's falling.

762
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: I think you just have to tip your cap to

763
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,399
Speaker 3: the Bucks played awesome, and they made the couple key

764
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 3: plays in that final minute that they had to. They

765
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 3: certainly didn't before that. They certainly left the door opened.

766
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: They were missing every free throw. Let's mention too, Jannis

767
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 3: kept missing those free throws late Yiannis had that huge

768
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 3: tip on the offensive rebound, another offensive rebound down the

769
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 3: stretch in that final minute to keep a possession alive

770
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 3: and eat up somewhere that time. That was a huge

771
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 3: play all game long. We said early in the series,

772
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 3: turnovers and offensive rebounds, that's what killed them in the

773
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 3: Milwaukee games. It didn't kill them yesterday until it did

774
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 3: in the final minute. Booker turned it over, they got

775
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 3: the runout and then Giannis got the tip and offensive rebound,

776
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 3: and it was just one. It wasn't the huge numbers thing.

777
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 3: But we are prematurely burying the Suns, And I said,

778
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 3: I think the Bucks are the better team. I just

779
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 3: think the better is marginal and more marginal than we're

780
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 3: giving it credit to the Suns. Hope there are two

781
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 3: games left. If they get to game seven. I know

782
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 3: what we like to say on this podcast, Game seven

783
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 3: is a coin flip. We never know what's gonna happen. No,

784
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 3: game sevens are random. We don't know what's going to happen.

785
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: We don't know who's gonna hit the shots. Game five

786
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:40,439
Speaker 3: was random. We didn't know that the teams are gonna

787
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 3: shoot fifty percent from three. We didn't know that Drew

788
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 3: Halliday was gonna start making everything random variants. Yes, game

789
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:51,280
Speaker 3: sevens are random. Game sevens are not coin flips. Historically, historically,

790
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 3: game sevens drastically favor the home team. I think all

791
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 3: that Phoenix has to do right now is win one

792
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 3: road game and it flips right back to them being

793
00:38:58,640 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 3: the big favorite.

794
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: A lot of this is on game sevens. It's mostly

795
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: that no one shoots well in a Game seven. Yeah, historically,

796
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: so like shot variants becomes very big. I hear what

797
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: you're saying about the home teams. I kind of like

798
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 1: to go back and like see if that trends held

799
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 1: up over the last time.

800
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 4: I mean, it hasn't held up this year because the

801
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 4: Bucks won Game seven on the road against the Nets.

802
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 4: The Hawks won Game seven against the Sixers.

803
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 3: Right, So, but that's that's recently bias though. Here here

804
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 3: are the all time numbers. All time numbers in the playoffs,

805
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 3: the home team has won game seven out of one

806
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty five times one hundred and six, so

807
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 3: that's seventy nine percent winning rate. But in the finals alone,

808
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 3: nineteen game sevens, the home team has won fifteen, which

809
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 3: is also seventy nine percent.

810
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,839
Speaker 1: So the number twenty eighteen nineteen, they're five and five.

811
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: This is though, no, but no, But here's the thing.

812
00:39:56,320 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 4: I know recently bias doesn't apply here because you see

813
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 4: in sports that the impact advantage is decreasing because of

814
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 4: the travel, because of the fans, because you know, officiating

815
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 4: is a lot different from it it was in years past.

816
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 4: So you can't use these historical numbers and think it's

817
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 4: still applies to today, because that's not true.

818
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 3: Well, I think that's fair. I don't think that we

819
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 3: can say that the Suns will have a seventy nine

820
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 3: percent chance of winning. I don't think we can use

821
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 3: that number. But I don't think we'd use that number anyways.

822
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 3: But we should say though that that game game seven

823
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 3: at home is a huge advantage. That's what you play

824
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,280
Speaker 3: the whole regular season for is to get that home game.

825
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 3: And we heard the crowd last night. It would be

826
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 3: lunacy to have watched the five games of the finals

827
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 3: we just saw and think that home court hasn't been

828
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 3: a massive difference maker in this series. The way that

829
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: these teams have played, the way that the crowds have

830
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 3: fired up, the way teams have come out early in

831
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 3: their home games, it's huge. It's a huge advantage, and

832
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 3: it's not a coin flip.

833
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: So the last five years is this in sixteen, seventeen,

834
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 1: it's eight and eight in game six, since two thousand,

835
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 1: the last ten years since twenty ten to eleven, okay,

836
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: twenty four and twelve straight up in game seven. That's

837
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: fifty that's sixty seven percent. Just to Brandon's point, seventeen

838
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 1: and nineteen against the spread, forty seven percent and it

839
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: gets worse as time goes on in terms of the

840
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 1: spread count. So just as a general note, because we'll

841
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 1: have it at a pod before game seven, but probably

842
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 1: take the Bucks in game seven basically.

843
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 3: So my point of all that is before game five

844
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 3: I ended up at the end of our podcast saying

845
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 3: if I had to make a pick, I'd probably play

846
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 3: the Bucks money line. But throughout the podcast I was

847
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 3: the one arguing for the Suns. I argued for Chris

848
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 3: Paul Finals MVP as like a best bet. Yeah, I

849
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 3: think that that if you are a fresh better or

850
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 3: if you have a clean slate and you don't have

851
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,959
Speaker 3: seven hundred Finals MVP picks like I do and everything else,

852
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 3: if you're looking for a new bet, I think that

853
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 3: your best odds right now is still Chris Paul to

854
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 3: win Finals MVP. Because the Sun's money line at bet

855
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 3: MGM for game six is plus one seventy. That's a

856
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 3: thirty seven percent implied win rate. Their series line is

857
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 3: plus three ten, which is twenty four percent, So implied

858
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 3: within there, because we know that Suns winning the series

859
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 3: is now a two game parlay, they have to win twice,

860
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 3: so the implied Game seven win is sixty six percent.

861
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 3: Historically you're getting the better of that number. So if

862
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 3: you like the Suns to win Game six, then you

863
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 3: should be betting the Suns to win the series because

864
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 3: you're getting a better implied number there. And I still think,

865
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 3: like we said last time, and like Raheem was just saying,

866
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 3: if you think the Suns are going to win these

867
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,479
Speaker 3: two games and win the series, I think Chris Paul

868
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 3: is going to have to be really great. He's been good.

869
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 3: He was good in Game five, he's been good in

870
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 3: the home games, he's been good in their wins. He's

871
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 3: going to have to be great to get those wins.

872
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 3: And I still think it's that's a plus six hundred.

873
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 3: I've seen as high as eight hundred at some books.

874
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: That would be an eleven percent and implied chance of

875
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 3: what to me is still is if the Suns win

876
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 3: the finals, it has to be because of Chris Paul.

877
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 3: So now I'm at a eight to one chance of

878
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 3: the Sun's winning the finals, and I just don't think

879
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 3: thods are that low.

880
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: How much do you weigh the human factor? Though?

881
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 4: You know, the Sun just lost two games in which

882
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 4: they should have lost, they should have won, and you

883
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 4: know we spoke about this earlier, but that's gonna has

884
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 4: some impact.

885
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: I said that I felt like the Sun's bet was

886
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: right in game four. I stand by that one. I

887
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: think the Sun's bet was right going into Game five.

888
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:40,919
Speaker 1: But I don't think that they should have won that game.

889
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks just played out of their minds.

890
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean yeah, actually I worded it. Everyone think Bucks.

891
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 4: The Bucks probably should have won that game last night.

892
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: But it's just you't well, you shoot that well and

893
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 1: you earned it. Like, like as much as I just

894
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 1: went on variants like there's there's just nothing to be

895
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: like everything that I've ever wanted to see from Milwaukee.

896
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: They were last night and it was a close game

897
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 1: at the end, but that's part of it. Is like

898
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: they also delivered in the clutch, Like you know, it's

899
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: they absolutely put everything together.

900
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 4: It's just the fact the fact that the Suns had

901
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,800
Speaker 4: to fight back from a double digit deficit in the fourth,

902
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 4: they had that big lead in the first quarter.

903
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 1: It's just at some point it's an emotional loss.

904
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 4: They had back to back emotional losses, and at some

905
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 4: point it's just I have to weigh that in. I

906
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 4: don't know if that's worth a half a point a point.

907
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 4: But that's something that you know, impacts my handicap.

908
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 3: But I think though they both teams have the emotions

909
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 3: like the Bucks, you know, emotions run high for the

910
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 3: Bucks too. That takes a lot out of you mentally

911
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 3: to keep coming through with those wins. And now the

912
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 3: Bucks are going home, and now you know, they're in

913
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 3: Milwaukee and they're plotting out the parade map and they're

914
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 3: getting sized up for their rings, and they're like, you know,

915
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 3: the same way that we are inclined to think, man,

916
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 3: that was it, that was the game. Milwaukee's got this. Now,

917
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 3: if you're a player, you're inclined to think that too.

918
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 3: Apparently not ya. It's according to his interview the other day,

919
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 3: which one of the greatest quotes I've seen from the

920
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 3: players is about not looking back, noting forward, being in

921
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:08,919
Speaker 3: the moment. So maybe maybe he'll help the team stay

922
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 3: in the moment that way. For our listeners, when we

923
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 3: talk about a great a great, great shooting season, when

924
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 3: Durant or Nash or Curry has a great shooting season,

925
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 3: what are the three numbers? What are the shooting splits?

926
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,919
Speaker 3: Here are the Suns shooting splits for the entire finals,

927
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 3: the entire team of the Phoenix Suns in the finals.

928
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 3: They are losing fifty forty one eighty six. Wow, are

929
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 3: shooting lights out and losing the finals. But again we've

930
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 3: said this whole podcast, this whole series, like, man, the

931
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 3: Fox defense playing amazing, and they are, They're playing great.

932
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 3: The Suns are still shooting the lights out, And I

933
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 3: just think when you're shooting that well and they're still

934
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: scoring well, then we can kind of be confident that

935
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 3: Phoenix is going to score. They're gonna get their points

936
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 3: in games, which means what matters. Then the Bucks offense.

937
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 3: The Bucks are a much higher variance team. And why

938
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 3: is it so hard to believe that the Songs could

939
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,240
Speaker 3: do what they've been doing consistently and still shooting and scoring,

940
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 3: but the Bucks maybe turned back into the Bucks and

941
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 3: don't do the thing and miss some of their shots,

942
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: which they've done more of the series.

943
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 1: So I just let this up. This is in the playoffs.

944
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 1: So they look this up on bet labs, so I've

945
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 1: got it's in the playoffs. The series game is number six,

946
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 1: the team is at home. The team has won the

947
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 1: last three games. I look this up there has not

948
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: been since two thousand and three a situation in the

949
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: finals or this has occurred. So what I'm saying is

950
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 1: there hasn't been a two two one one one series

951
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: where a team has been at home for game six,

952
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: lost the last three. The Bucks have won the last

953
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 1: three and they're at home.

954
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, Well, going into game five there, I saw

955
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 3: the stat also that since it switched to two two

956
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,479
Speaker 3: one one one in the finals, we had not even

957
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 3: ever had a finals where the home team won the

958
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 3: first four games and it was two to two, which

959
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 3: is shocking to me because that's like, you know, the

960
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: the series hasn't even started. Yeah, we think that the

961
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 3: home team is going to win, and I think two.

962
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 3: I think the two thousand and six finals, the the

963
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 3: first heat MAUS Finals is the last time that a

964
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 3: team was up to oh and then lost the series,

965
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 3: which you know, the MAVs were up to oh and

966
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 3: then Dwayne wag got filed seven million times and shot

967
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 3: prea throws and the most boring finals. Well not in

968
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 3: history because the Pistons happened, but yeah, and they came

969
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,359
Speaker 3: back and when one of the next four.

970
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,879
Speaker 1: Let's focus in really on game five or Game six

971
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 1: rather the spreads five. Rahim you're laying two hundred mis

972
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 1: two hundred on the money line, I assume you don't

973
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 1: want to lay.

974
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 4: I do think this the spread is just right. So

975
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 4: I think that's that's the tough thing.

976
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 1: I'm going under. My My over underplays have been great,

977
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 1: have been.

978
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:57,760
Speaker 4: I think that that would be the play under because

979
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 4: you know, both teams shot the lights out. It's a

980
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 4: close out game, so you're going to get more defense.

981
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 4: I think that would be the way to play this.

982
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. I mean that's I said in

983
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 3: our slack last night. I would I don't even know

984
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 3: if it hit or not. But at halftime, when they

985
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 3: were shooting like eighty eight percent from the field combined

986
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 3: or whatever ridiculous number it was, I thought that the

987
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:21,760
Speaker 3: second half under was the play. It was like sixty

988
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:23,759
Speaker 3: six sixty one a halftime. I told my buddy, like,

989
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 3: you just watch, this thing's going to turn into a

990
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:26,800
Speaker 3: rock by in the second half. They're going to be

991
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 3: absolutely exhausted from that first half. And I thought some

992
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 3: team might even be like struggling to break a hundred

993
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 3: come down to the final minutes, and they didn't slow down.

994
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 3: But it feels like, Yeah, I'll be running the props

995
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: for this one and I would be looking for unders.

996
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 3: I would be looking to fade high point totals. Devin

997
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 3: Booker is at thirty point five on this one. I

998
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: will be very strongly looking at the under on that

999
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 3: of not hitting a fourth or a third straight huge

1000
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 3: scoring game for him, I think leaning unders, just because

1001
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 3: we've seen all the scoring, the shot making, and then

1002
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 3: the regression has to come at some point, do we

1003
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 3: think so? Like an hourly for the game yesterday or

1004
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 3: two hours before the game today, folks, Happy birthday to

1005
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 3: Thanasis an Atakumpo, twenty nine years old. He I assume

1006
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 3: is celebrating by himself in hotel room because he is

1007
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 3: in COVID protocol, which happened like an hour or two

1008
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 3: before the series yesterday. By the way, just so we

1009
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 3: can all feel old, Happy birthday. Penny Hardaway is fifty today,

1010
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 3: which is just I feel old saying that.

1011
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: Great. My first dog was Penny Wow.

1012
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 3: So I don't like it. But we are in a

1013
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 3: pandemic world. We don't know there are two days off

1014
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 3: between now and the next game. Before the game yesterday,

1015
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 3: Thanasis had to go into COVID protocol and a Bucks

1016
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 3: coach and assistant and a referee Thanasis is the brother.

1017
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 3: I don't know if you've heard of Janis, who is

1018
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 3: real good in this series, contact tracing, et cetera, et cetera.

1019
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 3: Do we need even a little bit to factor in? Hey,

1020
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 3: you know what, what if we give the Suns a

1021
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 3: little bit better chance just in case one of those

1022
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 3: Bucks guys ends up not getting to play, that's you know,

1023
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 3: not the NASAs.

1024
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 1: I mean, I would tell you the anything, you're gonna

1025
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 1: don't bet until wait until tip, Like unless there's a

1026
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 1: number that pops that you see that's absolutely wrong, which

1027
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna get this point in the series.

1028
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 1: Then I think you need to wait because these tests

1029
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: like they're getting tested before the game, and if something

1030
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,720
Speaker 1: pops up, then it's just going to change radically. Wow,

1031
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,359
Speaker 1: I'll just tell you I'm pretty nervous, Like I said

1032
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,240
Speaker 1: this in Slack yesterday, Like I'm nervous about this entire situation.

1033
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 1: Like you get you have an official, a player and

1034
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: a coach. There is not all that much close contact

1035
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 1: between those three individuals. Coach and Andthonessa's sure like they

1036
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 1: went out to dinner. They had like a film room

1037
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 1: session whatever, like a player developments even but even then,

1038
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 1: like a player development session, is unlikely that that would

1039
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 1: have occurred, so for it to have spread to the officials.

1040
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 1: Don't Yanis the Nasis live together? No, they do not.

1041
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: I confirm that. Okay, all right, I was like, that's

1042
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: what I thought. I was on an assumption of everyone

1043
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 1: thought that. That has not been the case for some time.

1044
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's say this too. We hope that everyone involved

1045
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 3: here is okay. We hope for good health. We don't

1046
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:21,360
Speaker 3: want to bet against all this, like let's make that

1047
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:25,919
Speaker 3: the clear. Yeah, get the vaccine folks. But but yeah,

1048
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,919
Speaker 3: let's be real Thanasis and Janis are brothers. That's why

1049
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 3: he's on the team. So the contact racing thing makes

1050
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:35,880
Speaker 3: me nervous. I will say this though I don't. Again,

1051
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 3: we hope for all the good news. We hope that

1052
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 3: we get game six on Tuesday night. If something happens

1053
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 3: and like Giannis goes into COVID protocol, we're not playing

1054
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 3: Game six as scheduled, Like, come on, there's no Yannis

1055
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 3: and he's in COVID protocol for a couple of days

1056
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 3: or whatever, like they're gonna postpone or something. We're not

1057
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 3: playing We said this months ago. What if we get

1058
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 3: to the finals, what if Lebron's and COVID protocol or something.

1059
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 3: They're not playing the finals without Lebron. We're not playing

1060
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 3: a finals game without yanas the other way.

1061
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 4: Really yeah, wow, they're just leaving it up to the

1062
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 4: players to be responsible enough to.

1063
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 1: So one thing, you are making a wrong assumption here

1064
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:15,239
Speaker 1: that Lebron plays by the rules of everyone else, not

1065
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 1: the case, including when he brought an open bottle of

1066
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 1: tequila to the game last night and somebody tweeted they

1067
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:24,399
Speaker 1: let him have his tequila, and he's tweeted, they let

1068
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: me that. That shows you a lot about where Lebron's

1069
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 1: at in terms of I do what I want. For

1070
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 1: all of the explanations, the way that his situation in

1071
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,760
Speaker 1: terms of the contact tracing at the event was handled

1072
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 1: was very different from some of the other things that

1073
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 1: we've seen. So like, may I haven't spoken anybody in

1074
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 1: the league like maybe I'm wrong. Their policy would be

1075
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 1: that no, your response like this is just part of it.

1076
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 1: We knew this was baked in. You've got to get done.

1077
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:53,760
Speaker 1: They are terrified of the Olympics ratings. They are terrified.

1078
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 1: You delay this anymore, you risk going up against the Olympics,

1079
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 1: like holowing up it back for that's a question. Yeah,

1080
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 1: I have to push it back a week. That's like

1081
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 1: minimum seven days.

1082
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 3: But by the way, we all saw the picture, you

1083
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 3: know the awesome that the Yannis dunk we see in

1084
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 3: the picture with Chris Paul kind of trying to push

1085
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 3: and gets the allue of dunk. Does that count as

1086
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 3: another Lebron Finals appearance? He's in the picture, doesn't count.

1087
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 3: He's up to eleven now, right, He's up to eleven,

1088
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 3: Move him up to God.

1089
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 1: I appreciate that you waited a full day to make

1090
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:29,839
Speaker 1: that joke after making ends slack. I appreciate that you're like,

1091
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 1: I got you got a note pad and you're like,

1092
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:33,680
Speaker 1: oh god, I got, I gotta get the Lebron joke in.

1093
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 1: I appreciate that.

1094
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:39,320
Speaker 4: Okay, So I have a question, and what number would

1095
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 4: you need to bet the Suns in Game six? And

1096
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 4: this is you know, really big for Brandon because he's

1097
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 4: he thinks the series is not over yet.

1098
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 3: So you need for a spread or money line or

1099
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 3: either both.

1100
00:53:57,120 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 1: Give the people what they want. Yeah, I mean spread,

1101
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 1: I don't think I want to take it anymore. After

1102
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 1: Game four, right like they should have covered that game

1103
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 1: and that was brutal. Look the implied right now at

1104
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 1: plus one seventy is thirty seven percent. That sounds I mean,

1105
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 1: that sounds pretty sharp to me. I guess if we

1106
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 1: got to it has to be above two. I want

1107
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 1: it closer to thirty. I think they have a better

1108
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 1: I think they have a better than one in three chance. Gotcha.

1109
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 1: So right now, like two hundred is a thirty is

1110
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 1: a thirty three point three percent chance, So I need

1111
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 1: I need better than two hundred, Like even as two

1112
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 1: o five, I probably have to bet it.

1113
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 3: So now Milwaukee, you know, Giannis heads the bench with

1114
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,720
Speaker 3: two minutes left in the quarter, in the first quarter,

1115
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 3: and Milwaukee is up nine, and now it hits plus

1116
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 3: two hundred is at the spot because now I think

1117
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 3: we're scared away from betting the spot.

1118
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 4: Right in that situation where you have and you have

1119
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 4: a one team in an elimination game, I would rather

1120
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 4: play them from the.

1121
00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 1: Door, or play them first quarter than waiting.

1122
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,879
Speaker 4: Today go down because you don't want to You don't

1123
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 4: want to be chasing points with a team, like on

1124
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 4: her deathbed, what.

1125
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 1: Do what do we call that? What we call that

1126
00:55:09,600 --> 00:55:11,439
Speaker 1: rahiem trying to catch a fallen knife.

1127
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 4: So it's just like I think you if you're playing

1128
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 4: the Suns, you want to play them first quarter, first

1129
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 4: half because you know, you know they're fighting for their lives.

1130
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:24,400
Speaker 4: And then I think as the as the game wears on,

1131
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 4: that's when you have an advantage playing the Bucks live.

1132
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 1: So I don't have numbers on win streak here for

1133
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 1: after three in a row or being on the edge

1134
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 1: of winning the series, but here is since roughly two

1135
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 1: thousand and three, this is on Killer Sports for game

1136
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 1: six is at home after round two, so conference finals

1137
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 1: are better and with a lead of more than ten,

1138
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 1: teams are fourteen and four at seventy eight percent, So

1139
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:54,839
Speaker 1: like we've got four comebacks in that entire time at

1140
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 1: this level when they go down by more than ten

1141
00:55:56,880 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 1: in game six on the road. And but that is

1142
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: the fact that the eliminated game. There's a lot of

1143
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 1: stuff in there. But if you want to bet the Suns,

1144
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: wait to see if they can do it, and when

1145
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 1: they go up and the spread inverts, that's I think

1146
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 1: when you bet it, you wait for the moment that

1147
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: it flips to like minus one and a half minus

1148
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 1: two and a half, and then you bet the Suns

1149
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 1: that that to me would be the angle. That's what

1150
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 1: I would say.

1151
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I still think. I mean, we all know that's

1152
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 3: that's the opposite of how I play angles.

1153
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 1: I do for the whole pot.

1154
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 3: If I can, if I if I can get a

1155
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,320
Speaker 3: nipple of the pie, I want the whole thing. Chris

1156
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 3: Paul Finals MVP, that's a great point. I think that's

1157
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 3: the bet.

1158
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:34,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's I agree with you, because like

1159
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 1: that's the point is Is there any scenario in which

1160
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,280
Speaker 1: the Suns win this series and Devin Booker's Finals MVP

1161
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 1: after the last two games, I would say, no, I have.

1162
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 4: No faith in Chris Paul to actually do what you

1163
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 4: guys are asking him to do.

1164
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: That's fine, then just then then bet the bucks. Then

1165
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 1: bet the bucks.

1166
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think I have to stress that

1167
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:55,919
Speaker 4: for everybody listening that at this point, expecting Chris Paul

1168
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 4: to do it just feels like it almost feels like

1169
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 4: you're you look for pipe dream. I mean, and that's

1170
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,919
Speaker 4: no disrespect to Chris, but Drew Holliday is just he's

1171
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 4: doing a tremendous job at defending him.

1172
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: I just I don't know. I think you asked them

1173
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 1: for a lot.

1174
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 3: What give me, give me your best what you realistically

1175
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:17,919
Speaker 3: think is a pretty good, a really good Chris Paul game.

1176
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 3: Give me your best Chris Paul line that you think, yeah, okay,

1177
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 3: that that's a reasonable outcome that I could see him

1178
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:23,520
Speaker 3: putting out.

1179
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 1: Thirty three eleven, three steals on sixty sixty ninety shooting.

1180
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 3: So rahiem, what do you think about that? Thirty three

1181
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 3: and eleven? Is that reasonable or is that just? Is

1182
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 3: that the pipe dream?

1183
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: I think it's a pipe dream. I mean we just

1184
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 1: said earlier that we like the under Yeah. Yeah, so

1185
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 1: if we like the.

1186
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:46,960
Speaker 4: Under asking for thirty three points from a guy who

1187
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 4: you know, would rather facilitate the score.

1188
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 1: Here's here's I think here's the here's the counter to that, though,

1189
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,200
Speaker 1: there's a way that they win Game six, and which

1190
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:58,000
Speaker 1: is just it's absolutely Remember those Clippers games in the

1191
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 1: middle of the series, Yeah, were absolutely atrocious.

1192
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, And that's the same thing, like, yeah.

1193
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:07,840
Speaker 1: Remember those whereas absolutely just like a rock fight. What

1194
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 1: if Chris Paul has like like Booker has a quiet

1195
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: bad game Paul has twenty three, like he gets tense

1196
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 1: assistants leap twenty three and ten. Nobody shoots well, but

1197
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 1: Chris is the best player of a bunch of bad players.

1198
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:24,640
Speaker 1: But it's in a win. That's that. I think that's

1199
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 1: more realistic. Okay, it's like you're asking.

1200
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 4: I mean, I think you you kind of need Chris

1201
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 4: Paul to give you twenty three, twenty four, twenty five.

1202
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 1: I think he could do that.

1203
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 4: But I think asking him to go out there and

1204
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 4: score thirty like it's never really even been in his nature.

1205
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 1: Really, well, let's wrap this up. We'll be going long,

1206
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 1: so let's wrap this up. Are you gonnat the under

1207
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 1: with me in game six? I think I'm I'm rolling

1208
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 1: with you one under, Brandon.

1209
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1210
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: Are you gonna bet Chris Paul to win finals MVP?

1211
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 3: Yes? Now at eight to one for CP, I think

1212
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:53,960
Speaker 3: that that's the player. I think that's the right move,

1213
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna lock that one up.

1214
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 1: Here's the grossest. After I like wrote about the Suns

1215
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 1: and how I like them, and I talked about how

1216
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:03,400
Speaker 1: I like Suns in six or seven, uh, and all

1217
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 1: of these things, I did wind up taking Sons to

1218
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 1: win game one and Bucks to win the series at

1219
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five. Wow. So, by the way, shout

1220
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 1: out to our guy Joe de Lera, who took Bucks

1221
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 1: to win the series after trailing at plus five hundred

1222
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 1: and can do whatever he wants with that ticket, like

1223
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:25,080
Speaker 1: he's got a million ways to play it. He can

1224
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 1: sit on it, he can feel great about it, he

1225
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 1: can wait till game seven and go back the other

1226
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 1: way like great spot by Joe dynamite job, great, great

1227
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 1: job by Matt Mitchell and Joe de Lera, great job

1228
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 1: by Raheem, great job by Brandon, does it, doesn't Michael have?

1229
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:42,280
Speaker 1: Doesn't Michael have? Michael's got boxes like ten to one,

1230
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 1: like twelve to one, So great job by everybody. All Right,

1231
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 1: you guys can check out all of our apps, our

1232
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 1: our picks in the Action Network app. I want to

1233
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 1: see Chris Paul Finals MVP in there, Brandon. If we

1234
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:53,960
Speaker 1: get that loaded into the app, we'll be back before

1235
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 1: game seven if there is one. If not, we'll probably

1236
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 1: be back later in the month with another episode of

1237
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: the Action Network NBA podcast. If this has been it,

1238
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:03,439
Speaker 1: thanks for listening. We really appreciate you guys. Thanks about

1239
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 1: MGM the official ODS provider, or the Action Network Podcast.

1240
01:00:06,040 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 1: The show's been a blast. I love doing it with

1241
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:11,400
Speaker 1: these two guys. There are two absolutely exceptional writers, content creators,

1242
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,480
Speaker 1: and betters. Hopefully we'll see you back again for another

1243
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:18,360
Speaker 1: edition before Game seven of the Action Network NBA Podcast