1
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,200
Speaker 1: Welcome to Securing America with me, Frank Affney. The program

2
00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 1: that's a kind of owner's manual for protecting the country

3
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,760
Speaker 1: we love against all enemies foreign and domestic, to the

4
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 1: glory of God and his Kingdom. We're going to be

5
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,680
Speaker 1: talking about China, as we often do on this program.

6
00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:46,159
Speaker 1: We have much to be concerned about in this respect,

7
00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,879
Speaker 1: and there are a few people who have been tracking

8
00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:55,960
Speaker 1: it longer, more I think, effectively and with greater clarity

9
00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,840
Speaker 1: than our first guest. He is a frequent contributor, I'm

10
00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,400
Speaker 1: very proud to say to this program, among others, he is,

11
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:11,080
Speaker 1: by my estimates, one of the finest naval intelligence practitioners

12
00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:18,240
Speaker 1: of our history, certainly of recent times. Now retired, but

13
00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:24,720
Speaker 1: the rank of captain. He is the well proprietor of

14
00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:29,440
Speaker 1: a wonderful Google group that I benefit from daily Redstorm

15
00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:33,679
Speaker 1: risen and a senior fellow at the Geneva Center for

16
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:40,240
Speaker 1: Security Policy. His name is Captain James Finnell, United States Navy, retired,

17
00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,640
Speaker 1: and we couldn't be more proud to have him aboard.

18
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:44,000
Speaker 1: Always welcome, sir.

19
00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 2: Good to have you, Frank, is good to be with you.

20
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,280
Speaker 1: I want to just say too, Jim that you've co

21
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 1: authored in the past year or two a wonderful book

22
00:01:54,840 --> 00:02:00,560
Speaker 1: with our friend doctor Bradley Thayer entitled Embracing Communist China,

23
00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 1: America's Greatest Strategic Failure. And we're going to talk a

24
00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,960
Speaker 1: bit about how we're doing that in a moment, but

25
00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,280
Speaker 1: before we do, there's been a development out in the

26
00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:16,040
Speaker 1: South China Sea are very important ally of the Philippines

27
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,600
Speaker 1: that I wanted you to bring us up to data

28
00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:26,440
Speaker 1: on talk about this collision between two Chinese vessels and

29
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,519
Speaker 1: both what led up to it and its implication.

30
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:34,000
Speaker 2: Sir, Yeah, Frank, I'm calling this to Scarborough two point

31
00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 2: zero incident. The first incident at Scarborough happened in twenty

32
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,240
Speaker 2: twelve when China seized Scarborough Shoal from the Republic of

33
00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,960
Speaker 2: the Philippines. The shoal lies one hundred and forty miles

34
00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:49,800
Speaker 2: northwest of Manila, clearly inside the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone,

35
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,840
Speaker 2: and since June fifteenth to twenty twelve, the Chinese have

36
00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,680
Speaker 2: ad sovereign control of it, de facto control of it.

37
00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,000
Speaker 2: And what happened on Monday was is that the Filipinos

38
00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 2: were trying to resupply and provide food under an operation

39
00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,720
Speaker 2: that they started in May called Operation Kidawa, which is

40
00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,040
Speaker 2: to Galic, meaning they're trying to resupply their fishermen that

41
00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,800
Speaker 2: are out there fishing in the international waters. And so

42
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:20,040
Speaker 2: they had their Philippine Coast Guard vessels assisting their fishermen.

43
00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:24,359
Speaker 2: They're on these smaller Banka boats. And the Chinese had

44
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,680
Speaker 2: an array of Coastguard ships of their own and PLA

45
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,480
Speaker 2: Navy warship surrounding the Shoal twenty to thirty miles three

46
00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,200
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty degrees around the Shoal, and through AIS

47
00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:40,040
Speaker 2: automated identification system tracking, we could see that the ships

48
00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:43,000
Speaker 2: were the Chinese coast Guard ships converged on this one

49
00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 2: Filipino Coastguard vessel, and for about an hour, the Chinese

50
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 2: Coastguard cutter and a PLA Navy destroyer type five to

51
00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:55,240
Speaker 2: two Delta or a lu Yang three seventy five hundred

52
00:03:55,240 --> 00:04:00,160
Speaker 2: tons traced this Philippine Coastguard cutter and was trying to

53
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,160
Speaker 2: drive it away from the Shoal, but ended up driving

54
00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,840
Speaker 2: it towards the Shoal, and in the last portion of

55
00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 2: that they crossed the twelve nautical mile limit, which the

56
00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 2: Chinese considered to be legitimate because they claim that it's

57
00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 2: their land and therefore it's an island, and against twelve

58
00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,240
Speaker 2: nautical miles. The International Court of Arbitration and the Permanent

59
00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,359
Speaker 2: Court of Arbitration set in twenty sixteen, it doesn't enjoy

60
00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,359
Speaker 2: that distinction, but the Chinese pretend that it does. And

61
00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,799
Speaker 2: when that Filipino Coastguard vessel crossed that twelve mile limit,

62
00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,760
Speaker 2: they went, they went hyper drive, if you will, with

63
00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:37,120
Speaker 2: the Coastguard, Chinese Coast Guard cutter and Navy destroyer. And

64
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 2: in the process that the Filipino is much faster and

65
00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 2: more nimble, he was able to maneuver out of the way,

66
00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:47,119
Speaker 2: and essentially the destroyer ran over the Chinese Coastguard cutter,

67
00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,840
Speaker 2: which is about fifteen hundred tons, so about six times

68
00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,440
Speaker 2: five times a larger vessel five hundred feet long, drove

69
00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,280
Speaker 2: over a three hundred foot vessel. And what we saw

70
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,880
Speaker 2: right as the before the collision occurred, we saw four

71
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,200
Speaker 2: Chinese Coastguard sailors on the bow of the ship. And

72
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,440
Speaker 2: after the collision you don't see the sailors, so presumably

73
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,720
Speaker 2: they were either crushed or thrown overboard and presumed dead. Well,

74
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,160
Speaker 2: it's interesting and telling is that the Chinese destroyer did

75
00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,279
Speaker 2: not stop, did not stop to render aid, which is

76
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,320
Speaker 2: a thing that is customary in the maritime services of

77
00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,920
Speaker 2: any nation when you lose sailors board overboard, especially during

78
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,920
Speaker 2: allegedly peacetime, that's something that you would do to save

79
00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 2: your own sailors, your own people. And they didn't do that.

80
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,120
Speaker 2: So what that says to me, and with the actions

81
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,440
Speaker 2: of the other Chinese vessels, that this is a directed

82
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,080
Speaker 2: effort from above, way above those two captains of those ships,

83
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:49,160
Speaker 2: and was probably directed from the Central Military Commission Joint

84
00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,560
Speaker 2: Operations Center, and this was an agenda that they put

85
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 2: forward to say we're going to drive the Filipinos out,

86
00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:56,960
Speaker 2: and we're going to use physical force that we have to,

87
00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,960
Speaker 2: and it ended up being a disaster for the Chinese

88
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,760
Speaker 2: in terms of loss of face. And so what I'm

89
00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 2: expecting now is that the Chinese will return to Scarborough

90
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,479
Speaker 2: sometime here in the next week or two or three,

91
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,560
Speaker 2: or in the next month or three months, and they're

92
00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:14,520
Speaker 2: going to come back with a big armada and they're

93
00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,600
Speaker 2: going to finish the job, and they're never going to

94
00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,920
Speaker 2: let the Filipino fishermen ever go back there again. And

95
00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 2: we're hearing some rumors that even possibly they may even

96
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 2: try to do what they did down in the Sproutleys

97
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,600
Speaker 2: between twenty thirteen and twenty fifteen, which is to make

98
00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,440
Speaker 2: Scarborough Shoal an artificial island. And I saw when I

99
00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:36,920
Speaker 2: was on active duty draft plans that we're emanating out

100
00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,760
Speaker 2: of the China that would actually show how they would

101
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,440
Speaker 2: do that. So they've been planning this and have something

102
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,920
Speaker 2: on the shelf that they could do, so we need

103
00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:48,839
Speaker 2: to watch for that the next By Tuesday or Wednesday

104
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,880
Speaker 2: of this week, the USS Higgins conducted a freedom of

105
00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,960
Speaker 2: navigation operation and drove by Scarborough Shoal and went within

106
00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:01,719
Speaker 2: twelve miles, which was to essentially reinforce the international laws

107
00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,800
Speaker 2: non recognition of that twelve nine a COO mile line.

108
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 2: And today the Chinese press yesterday night and today they

109
00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:11,320
Speaker 2: were complaining about that vociferously. So they're playing up in

110
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,360
Speaker 2: their press that they're the injured party. But the fact

111
00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,360
Speaker 2: of the matter is it was the Chinese that are

112
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 2: the most. They are very aggressive here, and I would

113
00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,920
Speaker 2: say they're on a war footing right now by their

114
00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,960
Speaker 2: own actions, because normally you would stop as soon as

115
00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,680
Speaker 2: you had a collision like that and rescue people that

116
00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 2: were sent overboard it. And they did not do that.

117
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,440
Speaker 2: They didn't give a rip about their sailors. And we

118
00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,560
Speaker 2: know that the Chinese are very cognizant about protection of

119
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,880
Speaker 2: Chinese citizens. When we see an earthquake or a typhoon

120
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:44,880
Speaker 2: or some natural disaster of fire, they're always on their

121
00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,320
Speaker 2: press and on television, and the president's always talking about

122
00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 2: a He's sending troops to rescue every Chinese citizen. This time,

123
00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,280
Speaker 2: there's not a word about it to this happened on Monday.

124
00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,800
Speaker 2: Here we are on Thursday, four days in and not

125
00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,920
Speaker 2: one official recognition from the PRC government that they lost

126
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 2: any sailors.

127
00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Jim, to go back to something you touched

128
00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: on there that I don't think most of us have

129
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:15,000
Speaker 1: an appreciation of this idea of face and the loss

130
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:20,440
Speaker 1: of face and how while both disorganizing I'm sure it was,

131
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:26,119
Speaker 1: but also probably that those captains were looking at time

132
00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,680
Speaker 1: in the Gulag for this kind of hash up, would

133
00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:34,080
Speaker 1: you say. And just to be clear, they have essentially

134
00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,040
Speaker 1: seized Scarborough Shoal, but they haven't yet turned it into

135
00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,680
Speaker 1: one of these bastions. Is that the state of play.

136
00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,640
Speaker 2: Right, they've had the dominant presence there. They don't allow

137
00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,920
Speaker 2: any other nations to go inside the shoal except for

138
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,280
Speaker 2: at various times these small Filipino bunker boats can sail

139
00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,360
Speaker 2: right over the shoal because they had no draft. So

140
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,760
Speaker 2: they've had varying degrees of control. But since Marcos President

141
00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,280
Speaker 2: Marcus and the Philippine is come in and kind of

142
00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 2: come back to the United States away from the du

143
00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:08,000
Speaker 2: Terte policies, the Chinese have been much more locking down

144
00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,720
Speaker 2: the Scarborough Shoal area. And I just want to point

145
00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:15,280
Speaker 2: out those two Chinese vessels followed that Filipino Coastguard cutter

146
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 2: for over an hour, so it wasn't like they just

147
00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,560
Speaker 2: did a one time mistake. They were working for a

148
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,079
Speaker 2: long time. And when you have big ships trying to

149
00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,440
Speaker 2: chase a smaller ship, destroyers are not designed to do

150
00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:32,520
Speaker 2: law enforcement coastguard duty. But that's what the Chinese are

151
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:36,480
Speaker 2: using now with their maritime power strategy to drive everything out.

152
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:37,800
Speaker 2: So I think they're going to come back in a

153
00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,600
Speaker 2: much larger way and we need to be prepared for that.

154
00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,319
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, but your key point here is they're in

155
00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,920
Speaker 1: a war footing and that speaks Williams about what we're

156
00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,480
Speaker 1: up against. Now, Jim, we have to take a short break.

157
00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 1: We'll be right back with much more with Captain James Finel,

158
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:55,880
Speaker 1: United States Navy retired. Please stay tuned.

159
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:16,720
Speaker 3: Welcome back.

160
00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,400
Speaker 1: Captain Jim Fanel is in the house. Virtually. We're delighted

161
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,560
Speaker 1: always to catch up with him, but especially at a

162
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:27,200
Speaker 1: time such as this. Jim, we've been talking about rumors

163
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,559
Speaker 1: of war out in the South China Sea. I want

164
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:38,360
Speaker 1: to turn to a very much well, a matter of controversy,

165
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,080
Speaker 1: I guess one might say here in the United States.

166
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:46,640
Speaker 1: It involves this idea of allowing the Chinese to have

167
00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 1: unfettered access to and even to have our government profiting

168
00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:57,240
Speaker 1: from the sale of so called H twenty Navidia chips

169
00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:04,720
Speaker 1: that some in our community of China Hawks are very

170
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:15,160
Speaker 1: very concerned will enable greatly Chinese artificial intelligence progress. And

171
00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 1: there are others who say, well, no, these chips are

172
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,440
Speaker 1: more or less obsolete, or at least they're so widely

173
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,480
Speaker 1: available we can't control them. Where do you come down

174
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:30,160
Speaker 1: on this, Jim? And more of the point, the prospects

175
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:37,400
Speaker 1: of Chinese besting us in this artificial intelligence domain.

176
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,520
Speaker 2: Well, Frank I'm not an expert on chip designs and

177
00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,480
Speaker 2: things of that nature, but it seems clear to me

178
00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:48,120
Speaker 2: that we're in a really difficult position right now because

179
00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,240
Speaker 2: there is great concern from many on the right, and

180
00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,400
Speaker 2: those are the strong supporters of the president. They're worried

181
00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:58,640
Speaker 2: about providing technology to China. On the other hand, n

182
00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,720
Speaker 2: Video has its apparently persuaded the President that by selling

183
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,960
Speaker 2: Chinese chips and to the rest of the world, it's

184
00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 2: going to establish American artificial intelligence and technology as a

185
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,480
Speaker 2: standard for the world. So that's really the argument that's

186
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,440
Speaker 2: being made is if we keep selling to them, they'll

187
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,320
Speaker 2: become dependent upon us, even if we don't give them

188
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,400
Speaker 2: the highest quality chips. As I think Secretary of Lenox said,

189
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 2: these are the fourth tier. There's nothing there that is

190
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,360
Speaker 2: going to give away any national security or have any

191
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 2: national security implications. And that's probably true to some degree,

192
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,880
Speaker 2: but there are others who claim that there's things that

193
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,200
Speaker 2: they can learn from it. Interestingly enough, the Chinese over

194
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 2: this week, since these issues have come to the fore,

195
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,120
Speaker 2: the Chinese have now told their companies you're not allowed

196
00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 2: to buy AGE twenty chips because of concerns about secret

197
00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:54,760
Speaker 2: backdoor capabilities. So once again, I'm left to trust the President,

198
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,120
Speaker 2: who seems to be very cognizant of these kinds of issues.

199
00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,000
Speaker 2: And if there is a back door, if there's things

200
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,160
Speaker 2: there that we're using to help penetrate the Chinese through

201
00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,319
Speaker 2: these sales, best we not talk about them and let

202
00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,200
Speaker 2: the let us get on about our work, especially if

203
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:12,880
Speaker 2: they're old chips and they already have that quality. But

204
00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:17,440
Speaker 2: what's clear and undeniable is that the PRC is dedicated

205
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:22,520
Speaker 2: to building their own artificial intelligence chip making capacity that

206
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,800
Speaker 2: wants to compete and outstrip us and take it over

207
00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,760
Speaker 2: from us. So in those in that sense, anything that

208
00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,760
Speaker 2: if the President is cognizant and his team were cognizant

209
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 2: of that, and they're trying to their agenda to defeat

210
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:41,240
Speaker 2: that by making us the dominant AI chip makers of

211
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,120
Speaker 2: the world, and that's I'll have to trust them that

212
00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,800
Speaker 2: they know what they're doing. But I have, you know,

213
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,680
Speaker 2: some concerns about it when I talk and listen to

214
00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 2: other experts in the field who say that this is

215
00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,000
Speaker 2: not a good idea. Uh, I think we I think

216
00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,320
Speaker 2: that the debate is still out on it, but we

217
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,960
Speaker 2: have to watch it and we have to absolutely know

218
00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,680
Speaker 2: that China cannot be trusted in any deal they make,

219
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 2: and we cannot expect that they will not try to

220
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,720
Speaker 2: steal our technology through any way that they can, even

221
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 2: by having, even if we don't sell them any other

222
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 2: kind of chip than an Age twenty. Just by the

223
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 2: fact that they have phone numbers, email addresses, and our

224
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 2: meeting with people in the video and our government, that

225
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 2: makes me very uncomfortable.

226
00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. And I think more generally, this concern

227
00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 1: is that we are seeing a justification for our own

228
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,360
Speaker 1: pell mell rush to Ai giving rise. I fear to

229
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:44,520
Speaker 1: franken Ai a sort of man made monster, on the

230
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 1: grounds that, well, we have to compete with the Chinese.

231
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,200
Speaker 1: The speculation is that we'll become more like the Chinese

232
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:55,600
Speaker 1: as we do so, and I'm very anxious indeed about

233
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,720
Speaker 1: that as well. Jim, let me turn to a related

234
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:04,080
Speaker 1: example of what we seem to be doing to well

235
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,000
Speaker 1: help our mortal enemy, give you a little bit of

236
00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 1: context for it with a short commentary. Yesterday, Fox News

237
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,720
Speaker 1: star Maria Bartiromo rolled out another pathbreaking special on the

238
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:20,000
Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party's unrestricted warfare against America. This one features

239
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 1: the commander of US Space Force, a developer of cutting

240
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 1: edge military technology, and other experts assessing the PRC's ominous

241
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 1: determination to beat us to the Moon and to use

242
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 1: a base there to control access to it and the

243
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 1: cis lunar space in between, and project power even here

244
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 1: on Earth. A key contributor to the show is our

245
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,480
Speaker 1: colleague Roger Robinson, who described in a powerful interview with

246
00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 1: Maria yesterday that, as with myriad other Chinese military programs,

247
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:53,840
Speaker 1: the CCP's weaponization of space is being enabled in part

248
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 1: by unwitting US investors. Mister Robinson will be unbilling today

249
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,040
Speaker 1: a report detailing the extent and dire implications of this

250
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:06,600
Speaker 1: aspect of our insane underwriting of the enemy that must

251
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 1: stop my thoughts. More of them are at x at

252
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 1: Frank Gafney. I hope you'll check them out. Also are

253
00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:20,520
Speaker 1: sub Stack Securing America and Usfuture dot org, the website

254
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,000
Speaker 1: of our Institute for the American Future, which makes this

255
00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 1: program possible. Please support us if you will, Captain Fanel,

256
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 1: talk to me about space. Are you concerned about the

257
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 1: Chinese build up in terms of both their ability to

258
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 1: get access to it to populate it with various kinds

259
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 1: of satellites, and not least their determination apparently to get

260
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,400
Speaker 1: to the Moon before we do, and perhaps Mars as well.

261
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, Frank, space is the, as you've probably heard the saying,

262
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 2: the ultimate high ground when it comes to warfare, and

263
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 2: all of our systems inside the US Department or Defense

264
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 2: are reliant upon space based assets, satellites and precision targeting

265
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 2: and navigation tools that come from space that allow us

266
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 2: to know where we are precisely on the Earth, allows

267
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 2: our ships and aircraft to be able to navigate from

268
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 2: point A to point B, and allows more importantly, the

269
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 2: ordinance that we fire to get to the right intended

270
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 2: target for the right effect. And so it's really fundamentally important.

271
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 2: And we have concepts like in the US Navy CEC,

272
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:44,480
Speaker 2: this Combined Electronic Center. I'm getting the acronym wrong, but

273
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 2: it's this ability where everybody's seeing the same information. A

274
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 2: lot of that is really dependent upon space. It's absolutely critical,

275
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,119
Speaker 2: and China knows that, and so what they're trying to

276
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:59,440
Speaker 2: do is distributed maritime operations is another concept where where

277
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,200
Speaker 2: everything is distributed, but we can all see the same

278
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,879
Speaker 2: data because it's all being relaid to US through space.

279
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 2: If that gets taken away, we become blind one to

280
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,160
Speaker 2: where the threat is coming at us, so we could

281
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,479
Speaker 2: be defeated, but also we can become ineffective in what

282
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:20,160
Speaker 2: we're doing, so it's absolutely critical. Last month, the International

283
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 2: Institute for Strategic Studies put out us a report that

284
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:29,400
Speaker 2: talked about China's telemetry, tracking and command capabilities in space diplomacy,

285
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,680
Speaker 2: and they just listed some basic facts. China has nine

286
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:37,919
Speaker 2: domestic telemetry tracking and command stations, four domestic satellite launch sites,

287
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 2: five sea based launched barges, two aerospace control centers one

288
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:47,360
Speaker 2: in Jean and Beijing, several singing satellites, and low Worth

289
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 2: orbit and geostationary orbit over eighteen overseas telemetry tracking and

290
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 2: command stations that the PERSC is varying degrees of access to.

291
00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 2: They have four operational Space Events supportships and one is

292
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 2: being unleashed this year, so they'll have five and a

293
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,160
Speaker 2: PRCS space partnerships with at least sixteen countries in Africa

294
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,440
Speaker 2: and eleven more in Latin America. So just from an

295
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 2: infrastructure standpoint of space, that one report talks about how

296
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 2: comprehensive the PRC's commitment to space is. So it goes

297
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 2: from being able to make sure they can launch stuff

298
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 2: into space, then that what they put in space can

299
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 2: track us, track our ships, track our aircraft, and then

300
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 2: they can also take out our own satellites. And then

301
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 2: you talk about going to the moon in Mars. So

302
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: it's a comprehensive agenda to be able to dominate space

303
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 2: and to blind us.

304
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 1: And thereby dominate what goes on here on the planet.

305
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 1: Jim Finel, this is an extremely bracing assessment. Thank you

306
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 1: for your comments on it. Thank you to Maria Bartoroma

307
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 1: and Roger Robinson for their work. Rogers report, will I

308
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,719
Speaker 1: think document how we are underwriting all of this as

309
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 1: well shocking Come back to it soon, Jim. We'll be

310
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: right back, folks, Stay tuned. Welcome back, and a very

311
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 1: special welcome to one of our regulars with whom we

312
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 1: have not actually spoken and altogether too long. His name

313
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 1: is Dave Walsh. He is one of our duty experts

314
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: on all things having to do with energy, including efforts

315
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 1: to restrict ours in the name of climate justice and

316
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 1: trying to mitigate climate change as it's known. We wanted

317
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 1: to catch up with Dave, who brings the expertise of

318
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 1: a man who has been a leader in the energy

319
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 1: sector for many years, notably with responsibilities at Mitsubishi Power

320
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: and Westinghouse Titans in this particular space to assess two things,

321
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: both of which have in common. They are projects of

322
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: the United Nations, and I believe epitomize its ambitions to

323
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 1: achieve kind of world government power. They are also justified

324
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 1: in the name of trying to mitigate the changing climate.

325
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: One involves taxation by a UN agency, the International Maritime Organization.

326
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 1: Another involves the International Court of Justice also known as

327
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 1: the World Court, saying that all the nations in the

328
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 1: world must honor their commitments to mitigate climate change lest

329
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 1: they deserve their young people. Again, the ulterior motive here

330
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: seems to be less about indicating his own levels or

331
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: what have you, than it is about gaining power. Dave Walsh,

332
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: it's good to have you back. Thank you for joining

333
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: us to talk about these trends and to get your

334
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 1: thoughts more generally. First off, about is climate change a thing?

335
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 1: And I don't mean is the planet getting a bit

336
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 1: warmer as it tends to do on a cyclical basis,

337
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 1: But are we responsible for that? Is man causing it,

338
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 1: and would we be able to stop impacting it if

339
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: we will abandon fossil fuels for example.

340
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, historic climate change is absolutely a thing. What

341
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 4: is widely debated and misunderstood that it is not man caused.

342
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 4: Climate change has been going on for eons, and most

343
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 4: notably through the glaciation and deglaciation cycles that occur every

344
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 4: nineteen thousand years, where the ice ages reemerge and then

345
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 4: they go away and the ice melts and sea levels rise.

346
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 4: They have risen three hundred and twenty seven feet now

347
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 4: over actually four hundred and twenty feet in the last

348
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 4: nineteen thousand years, which leveled off about eight thousand years ago,

349
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 4: massively leveled off about eight thousand years ago. Now we're

350
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 4: at something like a couple of inches every hundred years,

351
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 4: a very very nominal residual, even acknowledged by the IPCC,

352
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 4: the International Panel and Climate Change. The thaw of Arctic

353
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: ice is pretty much over in terms of sea level rise,

354
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 4: because you know, the ice from the last glaciation is

355
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 4: pretty much all gone. Therefore the impacts of that are

356
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 4: no longer prevalent. But despite that, they continue with the

357
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 4: mantra that we're going to have massive flooding soon enough,

358
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 4: and vastly overstate the natural phenomenon underway by crustal over

359
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 4: thrust in the case of like the Chesapeake sinking a

360
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 4: little bit into the ocean, which it slightly is and

361
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 4: and calling that sea level rise. No, the reality is

362
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 4: that that's long, long over and even the IPCC admits that,

363
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 4: but they keep this narrative going that this is somehow

364
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 4: related to man costliner thame.

365
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: My experience with this, David, is not as extensive as yours,

366
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,719
Speaker 1: but it's been that that's the kind of thing that

367
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: the IPPC says in the body of these voluminous reports,

368
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: but it doesn't somehow get reflected in the executive summaries,

369
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 1: which are the press relate to, which is basically all

370
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: that anybody reads.

371
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 4: Is that right, it doesn't. But embedded inside their detailed

372
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 4: reports you'll see their full acknowledgement and sea level rise

373
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 4: being now fairly nominal, had leveled off about eight thousand

374
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 4: years ago. Yeah, it was a very real thing, remains

375
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 4: nominally a real thing. But it's miniscule. It's miniscule. It's

376
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 4: a no nevermind, and the extent left can be walked

377
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 4: away from by civilization moving slightly off the coasts, ever

378
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 4: so slightly, just it's not a consequential thing. They're aware

379
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 4: of that.

380
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: Okay, So what about all these pretexts for global power graph.

381
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 4: Well, despite the election of populist governments in our great

382
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 4: country and across parts of Western Europe, the UN under

383
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 4: Gutierrez is still very much engaged on the same mission

384
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 4: methods and activities as before, looking to seek reparations from

385
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 4: developed nations for the historic, historic causality of climate change

386
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 4: in their view, which is a very much China supported notionality.

387
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 4: That you know, given that today China, China plus India

388
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 4: provide eighty some percent of the CO two emissions in

389
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 4: the world, more than all China itself, more than all

390
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 4: of the OECD nations combined, Western Europe, the US to

391
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 4: developed countries, China has more CO two emissions, if one

392
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 4: believes that is important, than all the rest of the

393
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 4: OECD nations. But despite that, so what they craft these

394
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 4: arguments to do is focus the arguments on the past.

395
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 4: The past, the fact of the eighteen forty Industrial Revolution

396
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 4: through now, oh, the UK, Western Europe and the US

397
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 4: have omitted a lot of CO two, most of it

398
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 4: that's still up there in the upper atmosphere, therefore, should

399
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 4: pay reparations to developing nations impacted by climate change disasters,

400
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 4: including China to be paid, including India to be paid,

401
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 4: despite the fact that they're emitting eighty percent plus of

402
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 4: the CO two in the world now.

403
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 1: So it's a pretext for redistribution of wealth totally, That's

404
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,360
Speaker 1: what this is. And the idea that the CO two

405
00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 1: is up there? Am I correct that the arts per

406
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: million of CO two in the atmosphere is almost microscopically small,

407
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 1: And this whole notion that that's what's driving the warming

408
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 1: of the planet is shall we say, overstated.

409
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, the CO two content in the upper atmosphere is

410
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 4: point four percent point four percent of the chemical constituency

411
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 4: of the upper atmosphere. Yes, after oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, methane. Oh,

412
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 4: other greenhouse gas called water vapor is sixty times more

413
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 4: prevalent in the upper atmosphere.

414
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: Oh.

415
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 4: Even acknowledged by Google on the web that yeah, water

416
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 4: vapor is a the dominant causality of weather and climate

417
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 4: change over time, sixty percent more prevalent, sixty times more

418
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 4: prevalent than CO two, which is point four percent of

419
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 4: the upper atmosphere, and only five percent of that caused

420
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 4: by mankind.

421
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: Water vapor, for example, is going to persist in the

422
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: atmosphere whether we use any fossil fuels or.

423
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 4: Not, and it oscillates a lot in volume. All due

424
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 4: respect to the hunga tonguea volcano of two years ago

425
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 4: in January, a subsea volcano just two hundred feet below

426
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 4: sea level, massive, most massive eruption in the world since

427
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 4: eighteen eighty five, has caused a ten percent, a full

428
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 4: ten percent elevation in upper atmosphere and near space. The

429
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 4: content of water vapor encircling the Earth, which has an

430
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 4: effect on raising temperatures. The water vapor is a huge molecule.

431
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 4: And everyone knows at night when it's cloudy, you see

432
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 4: that temperatures don't go down. Well, that's the upper atmosphere

433
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 4: cloud cover, water vapor holding holding heat near the surface.

434
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,479
Speaker 4: So yeah, water vapor is a big, huge driver of

435
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 4: climate and weather change. Not CO two, not CO two.

436
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: And I guess we're not talking about banning that. So uh,

437
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 1: where do where does a taxation scheme and a court

438
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: you know, advisory ruling come into what's at work here?

439
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: Dave Walsh as a guy with a keen understanding of

440
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: the energy piece, What can you tell us about these

441
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: other aspects.

442
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 4: Well, no, they're I mean the whole, the whole mission

443
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 4: goal and objective of the reparations promoted in the the

444
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: i p c C sponsored meetings in the last in

445
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 4: the in the last three years has been to continue

446
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 4: to ratchet up a global litigation, global court strategy to

447
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 4: get get all countries to fall under the guise of

448
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 4: global courts and such as this effort through the i

449
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 4: p c C in the U N most lately, to

450
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 4: have indictments passed along eventually to countries who caused in

451
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 4: the past all of the CO two not not not

452
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 4: not present purveyor of it, because that would include China

453
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 4: and India. Let them get out of jail free and

454
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 4: actually receive reparations from all of the countries who in

455
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 4: the past emitted in their view too much CO two

456
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 4: being the UK, Western Europe, most notably the US, All

457
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 4: countries who have done taken draconian steps to reduce CO two.

458
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: We've we've achieved the UN Paris Climate Accord targets, even

459
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 4: though we left the Climate Accords couple of times under

460
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 4: Bush and didn't join under Bush, Trump left them. Despite that,

461
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 4: we've achieved their targets on mandating for power generation CO

462
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 4: two reductions by transit inc from coal to natural gas,

463
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: which burns very clean. In respect to CO two, we've

464
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 4: done that and still done and off not enough. We

465
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 4: have to look now at the past, since it doesn't

466
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 4: matter what you're doing today according.

467
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:53,239
Speaker 1: To the to justify both this distribution of wealth and

468
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: these power grabs.

469
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 3: Dave.

470
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: One last thing. I was listening the other day to

471
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: a very fatuous book review and effect of a new

472
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: book entitled Here Comes the Sun by an author who's

473
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: been championing solar power for a long time. The thrust

474
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: of it seemed to be that, you know, a lot

475
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: of private persons are now getting themselves solar panels and

476
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: reducing their reliance on the grid or creating energy and

477
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 1: dependence on the micro level. You've been very skeptical about

478
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: this at the macro level. Just fifteen seconds on, are

479
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: we watching a revolution here?

480
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 4: Well, we're seeing a revolution across the country, and it's

481
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 4: a bipartisan one Republican and Democrat alike of pushing a

482
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 4: solar agenda. In my state, we've got the largest brain

483
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 4: increase in the history of the country, nine billion dollars

484
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 4: by Florida par Light to prosecute the next ten years

485
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 4: of building solar farms only widely supported by the Republican

486
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 4: government in the State House, the State and.

487
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: We have to explore why this is and what the

488
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: implications of it. Will be get you back very soon,

489
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: if we may. Dave Welsh, thank you for your time today,

490
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 1: your expertise and your insights. God bless you. We'll be

491
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: right back books, stay tuned, Welcome back, and special welcome

492
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: to doctor David wormser one of the guys that we

493
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 1: turn to every week when we can to help us

494
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: understand well fact from fiction. I guess is the way

495
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: I would put it with respect to the Middle East,

496
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: in particular, helping to understand what is being said about

497
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: Israel and its conduct in the post October seventh, twenty

498
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: twenty three environment, namely fighting for its survival against an

499
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: array of enemies on the one hand, and what we're

500
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: being told about all of that. So Dave, let's start

501
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 1: with the Gaza. What we're being told is that Israel

502
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: is embarking on some horrific new occupation strategy that will

503
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: take it into Gaza City with all kinds of repercussions

504
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: for the people there for the IDF, and this is

505
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: precipitated much controversy inside well the cabinet of the Prime

506
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the one hand, with the israel

507
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: Defense Forces leadership now seemingly quite at odds with government's decisions,

508
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: and also the extent to which we are seeing the

509
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: possibility of widespread popular disaffection from the war, yes, but

510
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 1: also from the leadership of the country. Benjamin whose government,

511
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: your thoughts.

512
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 5: Are, yeah, it really stems from the conundrum that the

513
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 5: Israeli government faces, which is, on one side, it's got

514
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 5: a lot of sides, it's a hexagon or something. On

515
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 5: one side, you've got the hostages and the absolute desire

516
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 5: by the Israeli government to bring back the hostages. That's

517
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:53,359
Speaker 5: not only a humanitarian concern for the Israeli government, it's

518
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 5: also a question of societal cohesion. If half the society

519
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 5: feels that the government wrote off the line of the hostages,

520
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 5: it could leave a permanent scar that would be more

521
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 5: difficult to put back together again afterwards. Yet, at the

522
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 5: same time, the idea of the demands that Kamas has

523
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:17,919
Speaker 5: been putting forward, which are essentially an Israeli surrender would

524
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 5: equally leave scars on the other side societally, of all

525
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 5: those who feel that Israel is threatened by that, let

526
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 5: alone all those families that have lost lives and hostage

527
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 5: families who believe that that's not the way to bring

528
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 5: back the hostages. It won't bring back the hostages. So

529
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 5: there's this big split there. Then the second split, of course,

530
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 5: is strategic, is the hostages are absolutely important, but so

531
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 5: too are the long term security of the State of Israel,

532
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 5: which cannot be guaranteed as long as Kamas survives, and

533
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 5: in fact the opposite, So there's another dimension to this.

534
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 5: And then the third dimension is some of the internal

535
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 5: political divice you said is the Israeli military is averse

536
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 5: to taking territory and holding it. It really doesn't want

537
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 5: to get into business and doesn't believe it can hold

538
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 5: populations under their control. Whereas at the same time you

539
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 5: have half the Israeli political spectrum that says there's no

540
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 5: way in the long run, whether for ideological or security reasons,

541
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 5: you can give up these areas that have the populations

542
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 5: in them, because Israel's security can't be guaranteed in the

543
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 5: long run. In fact, it will eventually lead to a

544
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 5: Palestinian state, which is a mortal threat to the state

545
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 5: of Israel. So there's all these angles to this. But

546
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 5: and then there's a large amount of people in Israel

547
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 5: which are rather quiet right now. They don't want to

548
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 5: say what they think in public, they say it in private.

549
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 5: So I'll give it expression here. The idea is that

550
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 5: Hamas is not going to release the hostages. They are

551
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 5: are killing them right now. The video that we saw

552
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 5: two weeks ago of the hostage emaciated to the point

553
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 5: of death, nearly digging his own grave, is an execution

554
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 5: video like those we used to see with the airplanes

555
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 5: when they would throw the body on the tarmac. So

556
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 5: we have, really, I think here a situation where a

557
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 5: lot of people understand that this negotiated path is not

558
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 5: going to lead to another release of hostages, and that

559
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 5: the only way you can get any of them out

560
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 5: is through a full Israeli occupation of Gaza, where hopefully

561
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 5: some of the hostage keepers holders may realize when it's

562
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,919
Speaker 5: all lost and they're certain that it's all lost, may

563
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 5: make the choice to save themselves and turn over a

564
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 5: hostage their hostage, and that may be the only hope

565
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 5: for getting them back. A lot of people understand there's

566
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 5: probably no way anymore to get back to hostages other

567
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 5: than that, but nobody in Israel wants to say that

568
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 5: too ghastly.

569
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 1: So, David, if I understand you correctly, you're saying that

570
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: basically the country is split more or less evenly between

571
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: people who think that what Prime Minister Natanelle, who is

572
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:26,439
Speaker 1: saying is his policy is necessary and supported. About half

573
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: are saying, you know, make peace on whatever terms Hamas

574
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: will give, and the devil take the hind.

575
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 5: Most well, not make peace. I think it's split between

576
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 5: those who still want to go for a deal to

577
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 5: bring back hostages and those who say, go all the

578
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 5: way now. The ones who want to bring back hostages

579
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 5: through a deal are themselves split. Half say more pressure,

580
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 5: take Gaza City, that may make them break and bring

581
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 5: back hostages, and then another group basically says, just give

582
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 5: in once all the hostages are home, than Israel, go

583
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 5: it goes, you come to an understanding with the United States,

584
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 5: go back on the deal and finish off Ramas. Nobody

585
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 5: in Israel there's a consensus in Israel that Ramas has

586
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 5: to be destroyed and removed.

587
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: There is still yes, Okay, you mentioned the United States

588
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 1: and its attitude and all of this. We have to

589
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 1: take a break in about forty seconds, can you quickly

590
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 1: say where you think? Admittedly, with the distraction of the

591
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: summit in Ukraine and so on, at the moment, it

592
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 1: may be a little bit clouded. But where do you

593
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: think the US government is on this plan by the

594
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 1: Prime Minister.

595
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 5: I think that the United States government is more or

596
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 5: less given Israel to green light to do what it

597
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 5: wants to do. But it also wants to see this finished.

598
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 5: But it wants to It understands it should finish with

599
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 5: an Israeli victory, not just a surrender. But it wants

600
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 5: Israel to be decisive. But of course the hostage is

601
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 5: well important to President Trump obviously not the bottom line

602
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 5: for nothing else. It's very difficult not to be at

603
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 5: the bottom line.

604
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: Understood, Well, this is actually fairly heartening. If that is

605
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:12,720
Speaker 1: the US government's position in support, maybe we will finally

606
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 1: see the job done. David, we have to take a break.

607
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,800
Speaker 1: We'll be right back with one with doctor David Warmser's stay.

608
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 3: Tune welcome back.

609
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,760
Speaker 1: We're speaking with doctor David Warmser, one of our duty

610
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 1: experts on the Middle East, a man with extensive experience

611
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: in government at the highest levels for many years, including

612
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: in the State Department, the National Security Council, the Vice

613
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 1: President's office. He's also a naval intelligence officer now retired

614
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: and these days the director of the Medie's programs at

615
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: the Center for Security Policy. And David, you were talking

616
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 1: about the prime I guess focus of effort at the moment.

617
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 1: We didn't get into the idea of a Palestinian state,

618
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: but that's going on in the background with various countries

619
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 1: led by France, I guess in Saudi Arabia saying oh,

620
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 1: that's what we need. But meanwhile, back at the ranch,

621
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 1: as they say, we've got seemingly greater and greater evidence

622
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: that the so called twelve day war with Iran in

623
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 1: Israel may in fact not be over. What is the

624
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 1: latest indication of what the regime is up to there

625
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: and what can you tell us about these mysterious explosions

626
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: that seem to be taking place in some sensitive parts

627
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: of Iran.

628
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 5: Well, clearly the Israelis are continuing to conduct a sabotage campaign,

629
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 5: and some of these explosions can really only be explained

630
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 5: that way, you know, and always has to leave some

631
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 5: room for incompetence and genuine work breakdowns in Iran. We

632
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 5: have to remember Iran, this government. Iranians are very capable,

633
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 5: but this government is dysfunctional in many ways and their

634
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 5: safety and so forth. So there's going to be accidents.

635
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 5: But that cannot explain even the majority of all these incidents.

636
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 5: So you know, the Israelis are therefore conducting clandestine war

637
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 5: taking down critical people. Essentially, the war continues just under

638
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 5: the table. The second thing is the Israelis overtly admit it. Sometimes.

639
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 5: When yesterday or two days ago, the Iranian government published

640
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 5: a list of the top Israeli officials that they want

641
00:42:55,680 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 5: to target for assassination, the Israeli Defense minister bluntly said,

642
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 5: just remember the red wedding, and remember every time you

643
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 5: walk out of your bunker, look in the sky, and

644
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 5: if you hear a buzz, be afraid. So the Israelis

645
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 5: are signaling that they're watching and that they're attacking, and

646
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 5: that they're doing things. Iran, on the other hand, has

647
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 5: tried to start unburying some of the sites that contained

648
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 5: some of the sensitive equipment, including their missiles and including

649
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 5: some nuclear material. The second thing that Iran has done

650
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 5: is it actually tested some missiles yesterday and that was

651
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 5: very dangerous. Those are the missiles that caused the most

652
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 5: damage against Israel were the ones that they tested. So

653
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 5: it was a sign to Israel that they're willing to

654
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 5: strike back. And you hear all this stuff from a

655
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 5: spokesman of Iran that is echo chambers of Iran in

656
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:59,280
Speaker 5: the United States, like Trita Parsi saying that, oh, Iran,

657
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 5: Israel's preparing a surprise attack and there will be war

658
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 5: within a month or two. That is less an indication

659
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 5: of what they know about Israel, which is nothing, but

660
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 5: it's a lot of an indication of what they think

661
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 5: Iran is up to that would trigger either an Israeli

662
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 5: response or that Iran is about to attack, and they're

663
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 5: laying the groundwork for that. And Israel has said they

664
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 5: have some indications that Iran is preparing its own preemptive strike.

665
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 5: So no, the war isn't over. It's going on under

666
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 5: the table. It will continue again, probably overtly. The Iranian

667
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 5: regime fears for its life it is in shaky position.

668
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 5: There's every day more indications that the country's completely breaking down.

669
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 5: The government admits its failing, which is unusual for Iran,

670
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 5: highly unusual. It admits its failing and saying, oh, we're

671
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 5: not about the veil. It's really the wanton behavior that

672
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 5: comes without the veil. Also, we're just the want and

673
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 5: behavior which every society needs. So you see this defensiveness

674
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 5: and retreat to buy time on every front. Water is

675
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 5: running out. And now I think even with the nuclear

676
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 5: they may re enter negotiations with the United States over

677
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 5: the nuclear program. They won't give it up, but they

678
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 5: may re enter. I would take all this as signs

679
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:26,240
Speaker 5: that the regime's survival itself is at the edge.

680
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 1: So, David, if the passes prologue when they're in trouble,

681
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 1: the running regime is happy to parley. Is there any

682
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: fresh reason to believe that despite past experience, giving them

683
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 1: the legitimacy, giving them the time, giving them the latitude

684
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: that those talks typically create, to regroup and to rearm

685
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 1: and to prepare for that next onslaught, is what's in

686
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: the cards?

687
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 2: Oh?

688
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 5: Absolutely, the Iranian regime at this point it may negotiate

689
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 5: about its nuclear program, but its nuclear program is the

690
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 5: only thing it really has left as a form of hope.

691
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 5: If it can somehow detonate a device or across the

692
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 5: nuclear threshold, it would be seen enough as a success

693
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 5: that at least it gives the regime a shot to

694
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 5: survive other than that d'Or in free fall. So I

695
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 5: think what you'll see is the Iranian regime may talk,

696
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 5: but the whole purpose of it is to by time,

697
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 5: by time, to bring Israel over a line where it

698
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 5: can't strike again as easily. Whether it's defensive anti aircraft.

699
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 5: We know China's importing their HQ series anti aircraft missiles,

700
00:46:56,640 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 5: They're rebuilding anti aircraft structures and so forth. Are definitely

701
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 5: deeply involved with Iran right now and rebuilding their capabilities,

702
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 5: and that, of course is a worry. The second thing

703
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 5: is there's a political timetable. If they can push this

704
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 5: beyond September October, then you're getting into the American election

705
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 5: cycle and so on and so forth, and they're hoping

706
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 5: maybe the Democrats when the House, maybe the Senate, and

707
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:28,359
Speaker 5: then Trump President Trump is bogged down in whatever political mess.

708
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 5: So the Iranians have a lot of hopes here that

709
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 5: they want to drag this out, and so the whole

710
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,240
Speaker 5: point of negotiation is not to come to an agreement

711
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 5: that means anything. It's to smear this over the timeline

712
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 5: to the point where decisive action becomes more difficult or

713
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 5: if not impossible.

714
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 1: Again. Yeah, and lastly, David, just thirty seconds or less,

715
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,400
Speaker 1: is there still a fully unanimous view in the body

716
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 1: politic in Israel that Iran must be defeat.

717
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 5: Yes, that is an absolute consensus. Well, there's a consensus

718
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 5: over Gaza too that it has to be defeated haramanas,

719
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:10,040
Speaker 5: and there's a consensus in Iran Gaza. You have different

720
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 5: ways to do it, but the government has carte blanche

721
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 5: from the people.

722
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: On Iran on Iron. Thank you, David, God bless you.

723
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 1: Keep up the great work you do and come back

724
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: to us soon. Hope the rest of you to do

725
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 1: the name next time. Until then, go forth and multiply