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Speaker 1: Bitcoin just went through one of the sharpest drawdowns that

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Speaker 1: we've seen this cycle. But while it happened right on

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Speaker 1: time with the Bitcoin four year cycle, so many people

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Speaker 1: are still saying that the four year cycle is dead.

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Speaker 1: But the real issue isn't whether the cycle broke, it's

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Speaker 1: whether people are using the wrong framework to interpret what's happening.

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Speaker 1: Because beneath the volatility, the mechanics of this market, they

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Speaker 1: look very different than past cycles. So today I'm going

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Speaker 1: to break it all down with Scott Milker. He's a trader,

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Speaker 1: he's an analyst, and he's the host of the Wolf

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Speaker 1: of Wall Streets and he's a wealth of information. So

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Speaker 1: let's jump right in with Scott. So here we are

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Speaker 1: February sixth, twenty twenty six. Bitcoin has seen one of

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Speaker 1: the most dramatic flush outs that I think we've ever seen,

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Speaker 1: that I've ever seen. When I look back at the data,

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Speaker 1: when I look at the descending red candles in order,

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Speaker 1: I know you sort of started your career. I think

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Speaker 1: not to put words in your mouth as a technical analyst,

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Speaker 1: So from looking at the technicals, I mean when I

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Speaker 1: look at like the monthly closes, like how many red

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Speaker 1: we've had in a row. Is this one of the

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Speaker 1: worst flush outs that you've seen.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty bad.

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Speaker 3: The good news is it reversed relatively aggressively today, so

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Speaker 3: I'm optimistic, to be quite honest, But yeah, you don't

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Speaker 3: obviously see five six monthly candles in a row read

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Speaker 3: very often in history of almost any assets, but specifically bitcoin,

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Speaker 3: especially when we believe that we were in the midst

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Speaker 3: of some sort of a bull market or cycle. But

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Speaker 3: even though all those candles are read to put it

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Speaker 3: in context, it's still only just over a fifty percent

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Speaker 3: retrace from the all time high, which is something that

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Speaker 3: we've seen even in the midst of bullmarket. So I

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Speaker 3: often remind people that twenty twenty one, which is often

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Speaker 3: viewed as one of the most bullish years we've ever

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Speaker 3: had in the crypto space, we had this.

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Speaker 2: Raging bull market through the Beauty of the year.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, Bitcoin went up to sixty five thousand, we had

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Speaker 3: all coins going absolutely insane, and then China banned bitcoin

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Speaker 3: and Elon Musk made the announced at the Tesla was

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Speaker 3: going to no longer be accepting bitcoin, and bitcoin went

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Speaker 3: from sixty five to twenty eight in two or three weeks,

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Speaker 3: right a fifty five percent retracement on the way down,

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Speaker 3: which was a boring summer, a slow climb back up

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Speaker 3: all the way to sixty nine thousand with a couple

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Speaker 3: more massive alt seasons, and nobody looks back and says, hey,

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Speaker 3: that was a terrible bear market, right right. They looked

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Speaker 3: at it as a retracement in the middle of a

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Speaker 3: bear bull market, even though it was fifty five percent.

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Speaker 3: And let's also take a look at silver, right, I mean,

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Speaker 3: Silver very famously just pulled a casual five or six

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Speaker 3: x depending on where you entered in that consolidation up

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Speaker 3: to one twenty and then in a matter of five

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Speaker 3: or six days, dumped into the sixties, a forty eight

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Speaker 3: percent retrace. So Silver, Yeah, everybody's screaming about the brutal

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Speaker 3: six to seven day bear market in silver. We did

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Speaker 3: it from October to now, right, so you're talking about

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Speaker 3: a four or five month period.

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Speaker 2: Silver did it in six days.

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Speaker 3: But for some reason, because it's bitcoined, the emotion attached

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Speaker 3: to it and the I think views of it from

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Speaker 3: the media and the mainstream just make it seem like

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Speaker 3: it's such an epic event when it's pretty in line

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Speaker 3: with what's happening in other markets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the recency bias really gets humans, right. Our emotions

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Speaker 1: make us terrible investors, and so we have that recency bias,

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Speaker 1: and so all of a sudden it's crashing, and to

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Speaker 1: your point, has been crashing for four months, and then

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Speaker 1: it really sold off over the last couple of days,

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Speaker 1: and then it's like, well, it's gonna just keep crashing.

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Speaker 1: But like other than just our bias to recency, there's

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Speaker 1: no reason why it necessarily needs to do that. Let's

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Speaker 1: let's it's early. I mean, yesterday was a bloodbath. Today,

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Speaker 1: as you said, we have a big rebound. I'm just

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Speaker 1: curious that you've done a lot of interviews. I know

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Speaker 1: you've been talking to a lot of people. You consume

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Speaker 1: a lot of news. When these things happen, everybody's looking

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Speaker 1: for a reason, and it's maybe never a reason. Maybe

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Speaker 1: there's a confluence of reasons that happens. What are you

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Speaker 1: thinking as of right now? You know, for why we're

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Speaker 1: seeing such a flesh out right now? Is it because

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Speaker 1: of gold and silver? Is it because.

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Speaker 3: I think it's for a number of reasons. I think

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Speaker 3: bitcoin obviously is very very receptive to risk in the market,

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Speaker 3: right if there's fear, bitcoin is the first thing to

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Speaker 3: sell off. It's open twenty four to seven, three sixty five.

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Speaker 3: If you feel like panicking on a Saturday, you sell

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Speaker 3: your crypto because you can't sell your stocks, right. I

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Speaker 3: think that that's been a blessing and a curse for

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Speaker 3: bitcoin the entire time that it's existed. But right now

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Speaker 3: we've had these unique situations where you can take a

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Speaker 3: look at sentiment.

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Speaker 2: Even for the stock market.

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Speaker 3: We had a period where stocks were two percent or

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Speaker 3: less off their all time high, but the fear and

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Speaker 3: Greed index was showing a six or a seven, like

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Speaker 3: historic historic fear excuse me, with stock sitting at all

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Speaker 3: time highs right, So that obviously is not.

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Speaker 2: Aligned with the view that things are going to go

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Speaker 2: up forever.

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Speaker 3: Things actually seem to have blown so high and so

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Speaker 3: far past people's targets that they're terrified of losing the

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Speaker 3: gains or of things reversing. And I think when you

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Speaker 3: see those kind of things happening, Bitcoin reacts and sometimes

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Speaker 3: reacts first. And you know, many people have pointed to

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Speaker 3: the fact that micro strategy maybe was even leading Bitcoin

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Speaker 3: on the way down and could have been a good

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Speaker 3: signal and then others say, you know, bitcoin leading other markets.

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Speaker 3: But in my view, there's a lot of reason. So

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Speaker 3: first of all, this cycle, if we want to even

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Speaker 3: call it that at this point, has been very different

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Speaker 3: than others. I don't view it as a part of

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Speaker 3: the four year cycle anymore.

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 3: I spoke with Matt Hogan this week from Bitwise, and

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Speaker 3: he wrote a great piece about crypto winter and that

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Speaker 3: it actually started in January of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: If you look back at a number of metrics for

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Speaker 2: products that they.

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Speaker 3: Have, the idea basically being that we had some sort

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Speaker 3: of cycle here, but it was basically Bitcoin blowing up

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Speaker 3: on pressure from digital asset treasury companies and ETF buying.

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Speaker 3: So we had an early all time high from the ETFs,

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Speaker 3: and then prices continue to push because we had all

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Speaker 3: this demand, but the rest of the crypto market really

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Speaker 3: never participated, and there was really no retail cycle or

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Speaker 3: retail bowl market, and we didn't really get the expected

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Speaker 3: blowoff top or the kind of high that you would

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Speaker 3: have seen in previous markets. And he goes back and

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Speaker 3: looks at the old crypto winters and says, hey, twelve thirteen,

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Speaker 3: fourteen months usually and then things thaw out. That's now

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Speaker 3: ish if you start to look back to January twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five. So I think that that's an interesting view.

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Speaker 3: I think October tenth, the liquidation event that day across

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Speaker 3: leverage exchanges around the world was a much bigger deal

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Speaker 3: than we're talking about, potentially a bigger deal even than FTX,

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Speaker 3: not for perception, but for the actual structure of the market.

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Speaker 3: We had over a million individual accounts liquidated nineteen billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: To put that in context, FTX was one point two

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Speaker 3: billion dollars. This was nineteen point five billion dollars in

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Speaker 3: one day. I think we're probably haven't publicly seen the

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Speaker 3: bodies float to the surface from that yet, but I

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Speaker 3: think that very privately they're floating to the surface.

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Speaker 2: And there's a lot of reason to.

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Speaker 3: Believe that these selloffs, especially yesterday, the way that it

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Speaker 3: looked was very system like somebody unwinding or blowing up basically. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and so I think there's really a lot of that leverage.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of early whales have just said

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Speaker 3: forget this, this is not what I signed up for,

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Speaker 3: and have just kind of progressively sold down.

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Speaker 2: We've seen that on chain.

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Speaker 3: So I just think that there's been a lot of

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Speaker 3: surprise selling pressure and there really hasn't been retail demand

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Speaker 3: to match it.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's been a lot of talk about the

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Speaker 1: four year cycle and the four year cycle being dead,

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Speaker 1: and if I'm being honest, I was sort of in

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Speaker 1: that camp. And when I look at it, you know, again,

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Speaker 1: I know you have technical analysis background. I never really

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Speaker 1: believed in charts that much, but my old business partner,

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Speaker 1: he was an amazing TA chartist, and I'm look at

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Speaker 1: the fundamentals, he's looking at the technicals, and for some

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Speaker 1: weird reason, coincidentally, they always seem to line up, and

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Speaker 1: so it's almost like they can read each other. But like,

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Speaker 1: when I look at this four year cycle, to me,

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Speaker 1: it seemed like it was dead, but the reason in high.

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Speaker 1: Looking backwards, it's like all the reasons that created the

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Speaker 1: previous four year cycles were gone, so it must be dead.

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Speaker 1: But per the four year cycles, the new all time

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Speaker 1: high is eighteen months after the having and in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one, November twenty twenty one, after Jerme Powell said

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Speaker 1: he was not even thinking about thinking about raising rates,

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Speaker 1: he said that he was going to keep rates low

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Speaker 1: for four years. He came out and made it and

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Speaker 1: press release and said we're going to start raising rates

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Speaker 1: and then boom, it sold off. Now, how did the

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Speaker 1: four year cycle know that Drome Powell was going to

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Speaker 1: make that announcement? And now it's over because instead of

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Speaker 1: raising rates, now the Fed is lowering rates. So for

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Speaker 1: sure it can't be the top of the cycle. But

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Speaker 1: sure enough, eighteen months after the have you mentioned October tenth.

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Speaker 1: October tenth is when Donald Trump threw out the tweet

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Speaker 1: about one hundred per cent tariffs on China, which then

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Speaker 1: the market started selling off and then everything cascaded down.

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Speaker 1: But how did the four year cycle know that Trump

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Speaker 1: was going to make that tweet? But it was eighteen

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Speaker 1: months after the having and so we could. So the

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Speaker 1: problem that I have is like two things, and I

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Speaker 1: want to get your take on this. So one all

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Speaker 1: the reasons that created it last time in twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: if you remember, it was because Facebook and Google band

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Speaker 1: all advertising, the banks and credit card companies stopped any transaction,

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Speaker 1: so they literally stopped the market. Then you had power

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Speaker 1: raising rates. Now it's Trump's tweet or whatever. But then

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Speaker 1: on the flip side, and this is the part that

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Speaker 1: I want to get your opinion on. Well, all of that,

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Speaker 1: but now it's like is it dead? Should I be buying?

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Speaker 1: Because every new cycle we see a new narrative s

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Speaker 1: why it's dead Now it's quantum before something else, so

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Speaker 1: it changes, but right on schedule.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the narratives follow the price action to

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Speaker 3: some degree, right, because, as you even mentioned at the beginning,

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Speaker 3: people sort of need to explain the reason that things

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Speaker 3: happen in markets and in life of course, right, And

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Speaker 3: so I think that the narratives are drawn from what

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Speaker 3: happens with the price. That said, the true deep technical

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Speaker 3: animal and I don't necessarily believe this, believe that all

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Speaker 3: of the news is in the charts, as you sort

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Speaker 3: of alluded to, and that if you actually think about

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Speaker 3: what technical analysis is, it's just humans making bad decisions.

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Speaker 3: You want to be on the other side of a

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Speaker 3: human making a bad decision, And where the most humans

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Speaker 3: going to make a bad decision, it's some level of

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Speaker 3: support and resistance where they've made bad decisions before, right,

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Speaker 3: or where the crowd is likely to come. You know,

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Speaker 3: it's going to come to a confluence of too much fear,

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Speaker 3: too much greed, and that's where things are going to

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Speaker 3: bounce or reverse. So I think that's the reason that

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Speaker 3: it tends to align, because the markets really come to

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Speaker 3: a fever pitch at the perfect moment for a big

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Speaker 3: news event to rock them. But that said, when I

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Speaker 3: look at the four year cycle, I think there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of ways to define the four year cycle. So

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Speaker 3: the original definition of the four year cycle obviously was

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Speaker 3: about the having, and I think when bitcoin was more nascent,

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Speaker 3: a much smaller asset, a you know, supply reduction every

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Speaker 3: four years, an increase in difficulty because of the size

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Speaker 3: of the market made a massive difference.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: There wasn't that much demand relative to supply, so when

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Speaker 3: you cut the new supply issuance in half, the demand

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Speaker 3: really even just staying flat, men, price was basically get

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Speaker 3: at double right, just rationally mathematically Now, I mean, Michael

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Speaker 3: Saylor buys more bitcoin that's is issued in any given week.

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Speaker 3: So the having itself has become more of the catalyst

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Speaker 3: for that four year cycle. But I think it's just

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Speaker 3: a narrative and is not actually fundamentally making a difference.

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Speaker 3: But that sort of is where the entire myth or

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Speaker 3: belief in the four year cycle was born of a

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Speaker 3: lot of people have made very compelling arguments it's actually

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Speaker 3: more about a liquidity cycle, or that the four year

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Speaker 3: cycle itself and the having always aligned with the election cycles.

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Speaker 3: And I think that that is a way more compelling

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Speaker 3: argument than just the having itself. But also when you

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Speaker 3: look at the bitcoin four your cycle, to me, I

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Speaker 3: look at the crypto four your cycle, even though I

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Speaker 3: view the rest of the crypto market is very different

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Speaker 3: than Bitcoin and almost separate. You've seen patterns of how

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Speaker 3: all coins behave when Bitcoin does certain things in the past,

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Speaker 3: and this time all bets were off when it came

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Speaker 3: to that, they just never performed. They never caught up,

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Speaker 3: retail never rotated. So clearly there were very different fundamental

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Speaker 3: reasons like the ETF and treasury companies that were pushing

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Speaker 3: bitcoin higher in this cycle.

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Speaker 2: That said, the one very compelling argument for.

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Speaker 3: The four year cycle, which you made is that the

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Speaker 3: market topped at the perfect time. Now, it didn't didn't

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Speaker 3: have a blowoff top. It was an extremely muted top,

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Speaker 3: not even two x from the previo.

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Speaker 1: It's a time it's fifth. Yeah, the top wasn't side,

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Speaker 1: but it's a fifty percent sell off.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, But like I said, I mean, how many times

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Speaker 3: have we seen forty thirty, forty fifty percent sell offs

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Speaker 3: even in bowl markets every time, six or seven times

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Speaker 3: a cycle, right, I just I kind of align with

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Speaker 3: the thinking that I presented before from Matt Hogan, which

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Speaker 3: is that.

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Speaker 2: Retail just really never got involved.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 3: They're they're playing in silver, They're speculating in predictive markets

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Speaker 3: on tomorrow's weather and who's going to win a local election.

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Speaker 3: They don't need meme coins and random all coins just

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Speaker 3: for the ability to gamble like they did in the past.

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Speaker 3: And so when the speculators leave, crypto looks very very ugly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's a whole conversation there, but we don't

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Speaker 1: need to dive into that. But you know, I would

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Speaker 1: of course say that crypto is dead, and for all

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Speaker 1: a lot of the reasons that you've just given. It

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Speaker 1: was always a more volatile play against bitcoin, but now

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Speaker 1: we have so many other options that are more volatile

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Speaker 1: against bitcoin, and just micro strategy alone, plus all the

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Speaker 1: other treasuries, and so a lot of that's been sucked

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Speaker 1: out of the air. I ran a chart a week ago,

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Speaker 1: I think it was or two weeks ago, and I

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Speaker 1: basically looked at bitcoin's growth since the bottom of the

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Speaker 1: last bear market, so twenty twenty two compared to the

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Speaker 1: crypto market cap, removing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, So just

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Speaker 1: moving the top three and the crypto and keep Theoryum

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Speaker 1: or I mean sorry, keep XRP whatever in there. Just

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Speaker 1: take those three out. And to your point, yes, it's

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Speaker 1: completely flat since the bottom of the bear market, so

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Speaker 1: there's been no and there's nineteen million of them today,

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Speaker 1: so that market is just completely dead. But the question is,

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Speaker 1: back to what I was saying, is I put this

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Speaker 1: on Twitter yesterday I think it was, And I haven't

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Speaker 1: been posting a whole lot.

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Speaker 2: And there's just the.

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Speaker 1: Way the algorithm has changed. Man, it's like a dumpster

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Speaker 1: fire on Twitter right now. I don't know if you've

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Speaker 1: been seeing the same thing. Oh yeah, Like I jump

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Speaker 1: on and I just look at all this stuff and

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Speaker 1: I'm like, oh my gosh, I'm out. So I haven't

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Speaker 1: been posting that much recently, but I did post something

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Speaker 1: yesterday and I was just saying, how you know, now,

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Speaker 1: I've been in since twenty fifteen, and these draw downs

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Speaker 1: maybe get a little easier, But there's they're still tough

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Speaker 1: for even somebody like me. And I've never sold a

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Speaker 1: single SAT ever, but I haven't had the conviction to

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Speaker 1: buy heavy at the bottom. And I was saying, how

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Speaker 1: because every time at the bottom it's a different narrative,

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Speaker 1: And I'm like, man, I kind of already have enough.

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Speaker 1: Do I really want to put more in? What if

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Speaker 1: it doesn't come back? So I'm curious how you think

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Speaker 1: about that? Here we are at a fifty percent draw down.

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Speaker 1: It's bouncing today, but who knows if it keeps going down?

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Speaker 1: How do you think about buying back in or you know,

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Speaker 1: selling out or buying in or buying in heavy or

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Speaker 1: at times like this when that narrative is telling us

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Speaker 1: that it's dead. All right, stop what you're doing so

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Speaker 1: right now and book your travel to come join me

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Speaker 1: in Las Vegas for the Bitcoin Conference. It's the biggest

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Speaker 1: event of the year, the one I look forward to

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Speaker 1: the most every single year. Literally my entire year calendar

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Speaker 1: is set around it. It's the biggest event, the most

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Speaker 1: culturally relevant event happening in the world. The top politicians,

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Speaker 1: the top bank is, the top investors, the top entertainers,

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Speaker 1: everybody's going to be there, so come check it out

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Speaker 1: April twenty seventh through.

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Speaker 2: The twenty ninth.

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Speaker 1: Use my code mark Moss to save ten percent. And

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Speaker 1: if you use my code to save ten percent, send

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Speaker 1: me a message on social media or email and I'll

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Speaker 1: invite you to a private party I'm having at the event,

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Speaker 1: and I'll see you there.

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Speaker 3: I've bought more bitcoin in the past couple of weeks

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Speaker 3: than probably ever before in a dollar denominated amount. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: I was able to help buy a hell of a

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Speaker 3: lot more of it when I was buying it at

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Speaker 3: three thousand dollars than I am in the eighties, seventies

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Speaker 3: and sixties.

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Speaker 2: But I have extremely high conviction, and for me, I

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Speaker 2: feel what you do.

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Speaker 3: But I also have no idea where I would rather

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Speaker 3: put my money. And if I'm doing particularly well in

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Speaker 3: business at any given stretch, I can look around the

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Speaker 3: market and say, am I going to buy silver at

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Speaker 3: one hundred and ten when it was twenty six months ago?

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Speaker 3: Am I going to buy gold here? No, I'm just

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Speaker 3: going to keep buying bitcoin and wait. Right, And so,

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Speaker 3: because my mind has bitcoin as my savings account, I

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Speaker 3: don't even really view it anymore as buying bitcoin. I

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Speaker 3: just view it as moving my cash into my savings account,

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Speaker 3: and so for me, that is buying bitcoin. That said,

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Speaker 3: when it started getting here in the sixties yesterday, I

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Speaker 3: was almost euphoric. You know, everybody's panic selling, I'm panic buying.

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Speaker 3: I really that's where I've come. After all these cycles

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Speaker 3: and all the brutal pain and the experience with crypto

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Speaker 3: at all, coins going to zero and riding it all,

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Speaker 3: I feel very comfortable in bitcoin. Yeah, and I just

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Speaker 3: keep buying it. I've really been buying a lot. I

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Speaker 3: also run run at algorithmically. I add to that sometimes

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Speaker 3: when it's lower, so I don't really think about it much.

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Speaker 2: I have a great company I work with. They're called

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Speaker 2: arch Public, but.

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Speaker 3: They it just basically it just buys any three to

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Speaker 3: six percent dip depending on the timeline that you set.

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Speaker 3: So if you want a dollar cost average, you're going

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Speaker 3: to do two or three percent better over time, and

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Speaker 3: I just let it run.

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Speaker 2: I keep reloading, so.

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Speaker 1: You set like a percentage of drop, so you're just

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Speaker 1: like constantly buying the dips, like the daily dips or

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Speaker 1: something like that.

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Speaker 3: That's right, So instead of dollar cost averaging on Monday

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Speaker 3: at nine am, instead it's doing it on a candle,

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Speaker 3: depending if it's a daily or twelve hour, six hour

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Speaker 3: how you set it where there's the worst price act. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 3: so you're always buying kind of instead of buying, you're

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Speaker 3: gonna probably get a two or three percent better price

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Speaker 3: on your dollar cost average.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I love that. I was a've been this morning

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Speaker 1: and I've been writing a report that I'm going to publish.

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Speaker 1: It's a few thousand pages words, I mean not pages,

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Speaker 1: a few thousand words, but about the different approaches to bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: because you know, I think about it personally as a

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Speaker 1: partner of the Bigwin Opportunity Fund. I have to think

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Speaker 1: about it from a fun perspective, and then I think

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Speaker 1: about maybe from like a trader perspective, and there's like

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Speaker 1: different approaches to how you would how you would think

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Speaker 1: about this. And if like one of my friends runs

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Speaker 1: a fund, it's not a bitcoin denominated fund, but he

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Speaker 1: loves to trade bitcoin, as I think part of the

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Speaker 1: reason we've seen such a dramatic sell off is the

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Speaker 1: hedge funds are heavily trading bitcoin through ETFs I bit specifically,

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Speaker 1: but he loves trading bitcoin and he'll buy it at

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Speaker 1: forty salid at sixty, buy back at seventy five, slid

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Speaker 1: at ninety, buy back at one hundred and ten, whatever,

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Speaker 1: and he's getting more dollars, but he ends up with

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Speaker 1: less bitcoin. And so like, when you look at the chart,

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Speaker 1: it looks so easy, Oh, if I just sold here

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Speaker 1: and bought back in here, you could get more dollars,

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Speaker 1: But the chance of getting more bitcoin is statistically very

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Speaker 1: very low, And you're shaking your heads guessing you sort.

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Speaker 3: Of agreeol, it's a fool's Errand like nobody is a

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Speaker 3: god tear trader enough to beat it over time. And

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Speaker 3: that's honestly, that's very common across all markets. So you

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Speaker 3: ask almost any person who's tried to aggressively day trade

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Speaker 3: or swing trade for any meaningful period of time, even

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Speaker 3: if they made money, and I'm talking about with stocks,

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Speaker 3: if they go back and take an honest look at

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Speaker 3: what would have happened if they had just bought QQQ

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Speaker 3: or SPY and ridden it without doing anything that entire time,

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Speaker 3: they've probably underperformed. If they've done very well, they've tied

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Speaker 3: or beat it by a percent or two percent, and

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Speaker 3: they've spent hundreds of hours of their life when they

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Speaker 3: could have been doing nothing, wasting time trying to beat

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Speaker 3: the market, and beating bitcoin is even harder.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I really.

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Speaker 3: Believe, especially because a lot of people who try to

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Speaker 3: be bitcoin will either do it with all coins because

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Speaker 3: that was the way to do it in previous cycles,

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Speaker 3: and that's obviously been a massive losing venture and it

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Speaker 3: was hard even before, and a lot of people do

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Speaker 3: it with leverage. And we've seen that even if you

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Speaker 3: were playing your leverage right a lot of times over

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Speaker 3: the past few months, that exchanges basically break and liquid

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Speaker 3: h you.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, So good luck.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's part of the research that I

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Speaker 1: put together in this report, which is even if you

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Speaker 1: do it right, you have two drags. So number one,

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Speaker 1: you have the spot conversion. You're going to lose a

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Speaker 1: couple points on that a point at least, But then

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Speaker 1: you have the tax drag, and that could be twenty

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Speaker 1: to thirty forty percent. So even if you do get

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Speaker 1: it right, you're still losing, you know, thirty forty percent,

437
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 1: I mean short term trades maybe up to fifty percent

438
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,159
Speaker 1: plus the spot conversion, so like you have to you

439
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 1: have to win by a large margin just to offset

440
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 1: that alone. Let's talk about some of the narratives, so

441
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 1: as I said, right, like at the bottom of each cycle,

442
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 1: and maybe we disagree. Again, I was in the camp

443
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: that the four year cycle is dead, but here we are.

444
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,640
Speaker 1: So here we are a fifty percent draw down off

445
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: of the peak set eighteen months after having But again,

446
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: as I was saying, sort of like the narratives change,

447
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:40,919
Speaker 1: and you interview a lot of people, you talk to

448
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 1: a lot of people. I know you post a lot

449
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,360
Speaker 1: of the news on your on your x account. We'll

450
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 1: link to that in the show notes down below. What

451
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 1: are you seeing as sort of the main narratives as

452
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 1: to why bitcoin is not dead but damaged?

453
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 2: Right?

454
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 1: Quantum for example, that's why the hedge funds are getting

455
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 1: out quantum. What are some of the key things that

456
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: you're seeing.

457
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 3: Quantum has been a huge piece of fun And I

458
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 3: laughed it off because we've been hearing it for so long.

459
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 2: But it doesn't matter really the validity of the narrative.

460
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 3: It matters who's hearing it and taking it seriously, right,

461
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,439
Speaker 3: And we know that by watching politics and fake news proliferate,

462
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 3: and we know that once narrative sticks, it doesn't actually

463
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 3: matter if it's true. Yeah, I can tell you that

464
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 3: I've always laughed off quantum. Everyone I talked to says

465
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 3: that bitcoin will be ready, barring some of the old wallets,

466
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 3: and they're obviously actively working to make sure that that

467
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 3: is better and for me when I think of quantum,

468
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,440
Speaker 3: and I've always sort of taken the side that I'm

469
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 3: a lot less worried about my bitcoin if a quantum

470
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 3: computer can hack the bitcoin network, because they're going to

471
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 3: be firing off all the nations nukes and hacking the

472
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,479
Speaker 3: Department of Justice and the Defense Department and your bank

473
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,959
Speaker 3: accounts right now. If bitcoin isn't safe from quantum, literally

474
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 3: nothing is safe from corn, so we're gonna have bigger problems.

475
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 2: I think it is a for that one.

476
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 3: But what I will say is that I had a

477
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 3: couple of my Wall Street hedge fun not crypto guys

478
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 3: at all, some of who've never even owned bitcoin, asking

479
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 3: me this week about quantum threats.

480
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

481
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 3: Right, So that means that it's hit Bloomberg terminals and

482
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 3: it's out there, and that there are people who deeply

483
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 3: believe that.

484
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 2: This could be a major potential threat.

485
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: I'll tell you the other one that shocked me that

486
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,360
Speaker 3: I totally laughed off that I had three people ask

487
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 3: me about in the last three days if Jeffrey Epstein was.

488
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: The toasier had something to do with the beginnings.

489
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: Of bitcoin, and if the Epstein files were the thing

490
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 3: that was the reason that bitcoin was dropping once again,

491
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 3: people just hunt for narratives. But if enough people that

492
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 3: would be potential entrants to this market, especially in size,

493
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: actually read those things and believe it, or it just

494
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 3: reconfirms their preconceived notion about why they didn't buy bitcoin

495
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 3: in the first place, it'll keep them out of the market. Listen,

496
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 3: they'll eventually come in, probably when bitcoins at one hundred

497
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,479
Speaker 3: and fifty. But I do think that it contributes here

498
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 3: and those narratives matter.

499
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I also agree on the quantum thing. It

500
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 1: just seems so far overblown. I mean, so Toshi was

501
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 1: already thinking about it and warned us before he disappeared.

502
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: They've been thinking, the developers have been thinking about it

503
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 1: ever since the last whatever now seventeen years. There's so

504
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: many potential fixes that could be implemented whenever we need to.

505
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: So to me that seems like the least likely. But

506
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 1: to your point, to people maybe who haven't really put

507
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: the time or thought into it. They could be persuaded

508
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: not to buy based off of that room or sell

509
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: based off of that rumor.

510
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 3: So I still hear people talking about the environmental impact

511
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 3: of bitcoin as a reason not to buy it, right, Yeah,

512
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: I mean we've had cyclical These are relatively new or

513
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 3: at least how powerful these narratives have become. But we

514
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: had cycnical narratives in the past, right, I mean every

515
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 3: single bear market had something to do with China, yeah, right,

516
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: or the environmental impact of bitcoin, or the fact that

517
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: it was being used by North Korea or other you know,

518
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: governments that the United States didn't want to do business

519
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: with or viewed as a threat. So we've had the

520
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 3: same cyclical fear, uncertainty, and doubt that always comes around.

521
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: We're just seeing new ones now.

522
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you think about the Wall Street narrative?

523
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: So a lot of people have been negative that, hey,

524
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 1: now it's you captured by Wall Street, captured by financial institutions,

525
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 1: maybe captured by politics, and so I'm out based off

526
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:07,719
Speaker 1: of that.

527
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 3: I once used the word accidentally in a tweet that

528
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 3: bitcoin had been co opted by Wall Street, that it

529
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 3: was a little more dramatic than I intended, and the

530
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: amount of attacks and pushback and articles on cryptomedia that

531
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 3: I received from a result of that was astounding to me.

532
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 3: I don't believe that it's been co opted per se,

533
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 3: but I do believe that obviously they have a massive

534
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: influence now on the way certainly that the price trades,

535
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: if we care about price, maybe not in the value.

536
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 3: But I kind of look at it two ways, and

537
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: I haven't really settled in on one of them.

538
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 2: So A.

539
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 3: I originally got into bitcoin to trade for dollars, okay,

540
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 3: But when I finally fell down the rabbit hole, and

541
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 3: a lot of that came even later through COVID, was

542
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 3: really when it solidified for me, the money printing and

543
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 3: the nonsense of that time. I really was in bitcoin

544
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 3: because f the government and because I hate JP Morgan,

545
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 3: and because I want to be my own bank, and

546
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 3: I want to self custody, and I want nothing to

547
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 3: do with these institutions. I'm an unaffiliated voter, like I

548
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 3: don't want to do politics. Now my entire life and

549
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 3: show is consumed with talking about politics, institutions Wall Street.

550
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: It's when you zoom out, it's pretty absurd that that

551
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 3: is what we have to talk about, and those are

552
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 3: the narratives. So I can see how some of these

553
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: early bitcoiners that have sold their coins after holding for

554
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 3: ten or fifteen years that we've seen, you know, selling

555
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 3: ten thousand bitcoin clips, I guess I can see how

556
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: they have adopted the attitude of this is not what

557
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 3: I signed up for.

558
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: I'm out.

559
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 3: Also, that's a really easy decision to make when you

560
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 3: have billions of dollars, So yeah, you know, that's also

561
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 3: got to be compelling them as well. But the other side,

562
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 3: which I think is more compelling, is that those same

563
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 3: people are hypocrites because you can't say I bought bitcoin

564
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 3: as a hedge or to rage against the machine from

565
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: all of these things, and it's going to become the

566
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: global reserve currency. You can't get to global reserve currency

567
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 3: without going through these institutions and politicians and Wall Street, right,

568
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: So you can't be selective and say bitcoins only for

569
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 3: a certain kind of person who believes a certain thing.

570
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,959
Speaker 3: But it's also going to become the global reserve currency.

571
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 3: Those two things just don't make sense together. And so

572
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: I think that if you're being honest about it, you

573
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 3: know that there's going to be a period where you

574
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 3: have to plow through Wall Street and have to plow

575
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: through governments to come out the other side. And I

576
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 3: think that honestly is where we are now. And the

577
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: truth is if they try to control it, they can't.

578
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 3: Right So, even if you take the most nefarious view

579
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 3: on what they're trying to do to it, they can

580
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 3: suppress price for a little while maybe, but they certainly

581
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 3: can't suppress adoption, and they certainly can't suppress the network.

582
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I agree with that. I mean, it

583
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: was always coming for everybody and everything. Every person, every business,

584
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,640
Speaker 1: every institution, every government will eventually use bitcoin. Opting. As

585
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: far as like taking control over it, sure not that,

586
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: but they're all going to use it. They're all gonna

587
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: hold it, they're all going to own it, they're all

588
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: going to trade it. What I have been increasingly aware

589
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: of and concerned of is, you know, we saw the

590
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: futures introduced in twenty seventeen, and it continues to be

591
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 1: so financialized now. Obviously as I said, with the ETFs

592
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 1: going through the hedge funds, but now we've seen like

593
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: JP Morgan come out with synthetic bitcoin derivatives and products,

594
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: and the derivatives can really start to move the product

595
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 1: or I should say the price sort of on the margin.

596
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: And so bitcoin was always a commodity that was driven

597
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: on supply and demand, and we know that the supply

598
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: was fixed. But now when I see JP Morgan coming

599
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: out with these, you know, derivative type of trades, that

600
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 1: does seem to be a cause for concerns. So for example,

601
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: you mentioned Matt Hogan saying the high or maybe the

602
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: cycle topped in January twenty twenty five and then maybe

603
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: it was muted. This upside was muted, which was up

604
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: about fifteen percent, So the top was about fifteen percent

605
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: higher than that January twenty twenty five date you're making.

606
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: So to that point that seemed pretty muted. So does

607
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: all this derivative trading on bitcoin suppress the price and

608
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 1: then potentially they put all this leverage into the system

609
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 1: which then causes it to collapse even faster. So you know,

610
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: rumors are potentially maybe one big hedge fund, maybe it

611
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 1: looks like some funds, maybe out of Hong Kong blew

612
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 1: up as those positions unwined. Then it causes this massive

613
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: sell off. So maybe short term price manipulation or maybe

614
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: not even manipulation, but just suppression and extreme volatility from that. Hey, look,

615
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 1: you've worked hard to build your bitcoin stack, but if

616
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,479
Speaker 1: it's still sitting on an exchange, it's not really yours.

617
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: You See, the exchange holds the keys to your bitcoin. Now,

618
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 1: if they freeze with draws, if they get hacked, they

619
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: go under your bitcoin. It could disappear overnight. Even if

620
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: you've moved it into a single cold wallet, you're still exposed.

621
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: Now that would be one device, one point of failure.

622
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: If anything bad were to happen, you could lose your bitcoin.

623
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: Now that's why I use unchained. Their collaborative custody vaults

624
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: gives me the best of both worlds. I hold my keys,

625
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: but my security doesn't depend on just one of them. Now,

626
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: this is where security and sovereignty actually need. You see,

627
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: Unchained collaborative custody bitcoin vaults use a two of three

628
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: multi sig model, which means that you hold two keys

629
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: and Unchained holds one. That means that you own your bitcoin.

630
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: But if you ever need help, like their team is

631
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: there to assist you without ever having control over your funds.

632
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 2: And here's what I really like.

633
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: Unchained is in some offshore exchange or anonymous company. They're

634
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: based in Austin, Texas, and when you call, you're not

635
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: stuck with bots or scripts. You talk to a real

636
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: bitcoinner who genuinely cares about helping you get it right now.

637
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: They've been at it since twenty sixteen and now secure

638
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: over twelve billion in bitcoin for people just like you

639
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: and I. Now that kind of trust doesn't happen overnight.

640
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: So if you're serious about long term security and ownership,

641
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 1: head over to unchained dot com, slash mark Moss and

642
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 1: use code Moss ten to get ten percent off of

643
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: your first ball. Because if you don't hold your keys,

644
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 1: you don't hold your future.

645
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: Definitely happening.

646
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 3: I mean, look no further than our good friends at

647
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 3: JP Morgan and Jamie Diamond, who's obviously been outspoken in

648
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 3: his hatred of bitcoin. But listen, we all know the

649
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 3: history of JP Morgan with silver right. They inherited I

650
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 3: think Bear Stearn's book in two thousand and eight and

651
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: had arguably the largest physical gold position, but haid fines

652
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 3: and people went to jail for spoofing the market and

653
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 3: using derivatives.

654
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 2: To short the other side and collect a yield.

655
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 3: JP Morgan is probably doing that with silver right now, right,

656
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 3: So you know that these same entities, these traders are

657
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: going to take advantage of anything they can in a

658
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: market to make a ton of money. So on this

659
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 3: collapse quote unquote, yesterday, I think IBIT options had by

660
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 3: far the largest volume they've ever had, by many, many

661
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 3: of multiples. I think IBIT was over eleven billion in

662
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 3: trading itself. It's the same playbook, right. I can't dig

663
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: deeply into what each individual institution is doing. But you

664
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 3: I mentioned the introduction of CME futures or CBOE and

665
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 3: CM futures in December twenty seventeen. It was to the

666
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 3: exact day of the top of that ballmarket. Yep, it's

667
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 3: not just that they were introduced. That's literally when bitcoin

668
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 3: hit twenty thousand and took years to come back. So

669
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 3: when you give Wall Street the power to short something

670
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 3: or to find creative ways to earn a yield by

671
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 3: shorting one side and longing the other side, or it's

672
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 3: going to suppress price for a long period of time.

673
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 3: Now look at silver, like once again, I mean how

674
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,239
Speaker 3: long did silver trade in the twenties or at those ranges, right,

675
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: it was probably being suppressed and then eventually you push

676
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 3: the balloon far enough underwater and it exploited. And I

677
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: think that that's what's coming for bitcoin at some point.

678
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: But does that mean that it's going to take a

679
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 3: longer time? That definitely possible. Does that once again mean

680
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: the four year cycle is dead and you can't expect

681
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 3: on an arbitrary date for bitcoin to just sort of

682
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 3: ramp up and start to fly.

683
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 2: Probably? Yeah, it's interesting.

684
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get a lot more inside on

685
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 3: this over the coming months. Honestly, the volumes on the

686
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 3: options is not debatable.

687
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you know, a lot of people ask

688
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: me all the time, like you know, you know black

689
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: Rock has the IBIT you know, ETF or JP Morgan's

690
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 1: now and Bitcoin and are they gonna manipulate the price?

691
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: And what they're really asking is will they suppress the price?

692
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: Will they will they keep the price down? And to

693
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: me that seems counterintuitive because Blackrock wants people to buy

694
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: the ETF, that's how they make their money. And I'm

695
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: only gonna buy the ETF if I think the price

696
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 1: of bitcoin goes up. So if I'm suppressing the price,

697
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna kill my own product. Which means I'm killing

698
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: my own goose, so to speak. Right, So I'm not

699
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: so worried about the black rocks or the JP Morgan's

700
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: holding the price down, keeping the beach ball, as you said, underwater.

701
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: It's more like the traders just exaggerating the volatility of

702
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: this thing as it goes up and down. Is something

703
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about when we go to you mentioned gold

704
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: and silver, we'll go to your least favorite subject, the

705
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: politics of things, and we think about things from like

706
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: a more of a geo political stance, not just like

707
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: a US stance, but maybe US as well. But you

708
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: mentioned COVID is sort of what kind of radicalized you

709
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: or red pilled you and kind of made you go

710
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: all in on bitcoin. And it's because the obscene amount,

711
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: you know whatever, it was six trillion dollars or almost

712
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 1: ten trillion dollars collectively that was dumped into the system

713
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: during that right, And when you think about gold and silver,

714
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,719
Speaker 1: there they're an inflation trade. JP Morgan recently put out

715
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: a paper called the Debasement Trade Gold and Bitcoin, meaning

716
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: that as they debase the currency, as they print more

717
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 1: money than by you buy gold. And all the gold

718
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: bugs have always believed that gold is how I protect

719
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: myself from inflation. But if you look at the gold

720
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 1: chart from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four, with the

721
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: most amount of inflation we've ever seen, not just inflation,

722
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: CPI hit nine percent, and we saw the record amount

723
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: of stimulus ever injected into the system, and gold stayed

724
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: flat for four years. Now it took off, and in

725
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: my opinion, it signals that gold isn't moving off of inflation.

726
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 1: Gold is moving for a different reason. But I'm curious

727
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: your thought on that movement of gold and silver there.

728
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 3: I think it goes very much back to what we

729
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 3: talked about with it's the narrative that matters more than

730
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 3: the reality. And because in a two week period period

731
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 3: we heard black Crop talk about the debasement trade, JP

732
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 3: Morgan talk about the debasement trade, Paul Truder Jones talk

733
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 3: about the debasement trade, people starting to talk about central

734
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 3: banks buying gold. That the narrative caught fire and people

735
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 3: started buying gold. So it wasn't because of the actual

736
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 3: activity of what the government was doing, because to your point,

737
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: it should have flown from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four,

738
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 3: it was because your average person started to actually hear

739
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 3: about it and be sort of moved by the fear

740
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 3: and start to buy the asset. Right, So I think

741
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 3: that gold in this case also it did have fundamental

742
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 3: buying from central banks.

743
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 2: Right.

744
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 3: There's a chart that's been going around famously that shows

745
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 3: central bank holdings of gold have surpassed central bank holdings

746
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 3: of United States treasuries, you know, within the past six months.

747
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 3: And that's not a trend that generally reverses once it

748
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 3: gets going. So obviously there's a flight out of United

749
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: States treasuries and into gold by central banks. But then

750
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 3: I think when people see all those things and they

751
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 3: hear the narrative from the institutions that they trust, it

752
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 3: catches fire and they finally go buy gold. It's funny

753
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 3: because we can talk about debasement all day. Bigcoinner has

754
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 3: been talking about debasement all day, but people were still

755
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 3: selling the sixty you know, rias are still selling a

756
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: sixty forty portfolio that has nothing in it to hedge

757
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 3: against the basement. Right, there's no hard assets in a

758
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 3: sixty forty portfolio. No ria in the world was talking

759
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 3: about buying gold or silver to put it in there.

760
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 1: Right.

761
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 3: So I think gold looks like a fomo cycle for

762
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 3: bitcoin in the past, where you know, you start talking

763
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 3: about gold, then you tell your uber driver about gold,

764
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 3: and he tells your barber about it, tells his grandma

765
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: about cold and they all buy it. And I think

766
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 3: that silver looks like an old season next to the

767
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 3: bitcoin being gold, right, and silver is ethereum or Solona.

768
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 2: Going absolutely nuts on wheat retail.

769
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: Fomo right next to the the asset that probably should

770
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 3: fundamentally be going out. Yeah, Silver's rise is nonsense, and

771
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 3: the cope and excuses and reasons I've heard for it

772
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 3: are just so hilarious.

773
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was just speaking at a conference last week

774
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 1: in Vancouver called the Vancouver Resource Investor Conference. My fourth

775
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: year going there. It's a gold and silver conference, and

776
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: I'm the token bitcoin guy. So that's four years in

777
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: a row i've been there. And of course, because we're

778
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 1: on a four year having cycle, the last three years

779
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 1: was like I told you so, I told you so,

780
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 1: I told you so. In this year, all the gold

781
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,919
Speaker 1: bugs were like, hey, what about that bitcoin, because gold

782
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 1: obviously outperformed gold bitcoin by a large margin last year.

783
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 1: But you know, looking at that chart and listening to

784
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 1: the gold bugs. The gold bugs have always had this

785
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 1: doom and gloom narrative, like the dollar has to die.

786
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: The dollar's done, you know, the US Treasury system is

787
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: gonna blow up. Central banks are buying gold, and gold's

788
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: going to be the new system. So it's like everything

789
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: has to die. Where when I think about bitcoin, I

790
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: think about bitcoin is more about the future. And it's

791
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: like the reason why I was asking about the price

792
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: start if maybe it's not moving based off of inflation

793
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 1: or debasement, but rather it's moving off of like the

794
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 1: old system is changing, and maybe not just because it's dying.

795
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: Partly yes, because every time Trump does another tariff or

796
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 1: another sanction, and before him, it was Biden in before

797
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 1: him and whatever Obama. Like anytime the US government weaponizes

798
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: the dollar more, it pushes people to go find alternatives.

799
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: Russia and China have both been ded hollarrized since twenty thirteen.

800
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 1: It's not a new trend. And then technology changes things,

801
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: so then it's like the world is realizing. Like geopolitically,

802
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,959
Speaker 1: trust is at an all time low. Russia can't trust

803
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: their money in the banking system, it got seized. Trust

804
00:37:58,400 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: at all time low and the world is trying to

805
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 1: scramble for a more trustworthy, neutral type of system, and

806
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: gold is maybe doing that. So China is talking about

807
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: setting up this, Well, there's a new gold window in

808
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 1: Hong Kong that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is working through

809
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 1: to settle in gold. But bitcoin is is probably the

810
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 1: bigger piece of that. So when I think about it,

811
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: I think it's like geopolitically, trust is breaking down. Every

812
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: nation is becoming more nationalistic. Hey, we need to think

813
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,479
Speaker 1: about ourselves first, and because of that, we need something

814
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: more neutral, and gold might be the obvious choice in

815
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: the beginning, but long term it probably doesn't work. And

816
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 1: so maybe if I think a little bit longer term,

817
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 1: and you said earlier your conviction in bitcoin has never

818
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: been stronger, is this some of the things that you're

819
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 1: thinking about into the future of bitcoin?

820
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: To some degree?

821
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 3: I think my friend Dave Weisberger repeatedly states that bitcoin

822
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 3: is an option on its own future adoption, right, So

823
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: you're sort of betting on the narratives that we believe

824
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 3: to be true to accepted by everybody. Right, So we

825
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 3: believe that bitcoin is a superior version of gold and

826
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 3: can point to all the reasons. That's true, we definitely

827
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 3: don't need to rattle through them on a show where

828
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 3: everybody knows about bitcoin. But that doesn't mean that your

829
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 3: average central banker somewhere in the world has yet said, Hey,

830
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 3: I'd rather own bitcoin than gold, right And I don't

831
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 3: know what timeline we're on for that to happen, but

832
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 3: I do believe that it eventually will. Right now, it

833
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,919
Speaker 3: turns out that we thought the world would need digital gold,

834
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 3: but the world just wanted gold.

835
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 2: Right right.

836
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 3: And we thought that the world needed a new asset

837
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,760
Speaker 3: to hedge against the debasement trade, and they just needed gold,

838
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 3: and that's what they're still buying. That said, the dollar

839
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 3: being backed by gold, a world where gold is a

840
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 3: reserve currency is over right. That ended in the nineteen seventies,

841
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 3: And I don't buy into the notion that we're going

842
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 3: to return to a gold standard, right I think it's

843
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 3: much more likely that in the future, if we return

844
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 3: to system that's backed by hard assets, it would be

845
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 3: bitcoin for all the reasons that you said, just technologically superior,

846
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 3: much more portable, much more easy to account for. Listen,

847
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 3: I mean, we're all still waiting for an audit of

848
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 3: the golden fortknocks, right, right, I mean, we don't even

849
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 3: know if we have it, and it's kind of nonsensical

850
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,479
Speaker 3: when you think about it, whether we do or we don't,

851
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 3: that we even have to ask the question, and nobody

852
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 3: can prove it to us, right, that's not just the

853
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:24,399
Speaker 3: United States gold. So I buy bitcoin because I'm not.

854
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 2: A doom and gloom guy. I'm actually an eternal optimist.

855
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: I'm always impressed and shocked at the levers and buttons

856
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 3: that they can push to keep things afloat when you

857
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 3: think it's all about to collapse. And literally since the

858
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 3: day I first bought any asset in markets in the

859
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 3: nineteen eighties, when I was a teenager, I've been hearing

860
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 3: from loud voices about the imminent death of the United

861
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: States dollar, the United States government, markets, and economies. And

862
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 3: here we are in twenty twenty six and still very

863
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 3: much alive at all time highs quote unquote not adjusted

864
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 3: for inflation in basically every asset. Yeah right, So, I

865
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 3: my belief that they'll be able to continue to manipulate

866
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 3: things upwards probably outweighs my belief that it's all about

867
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 3: to collapse, because it's always all about to collapse.

868
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it seemingly never does.

869
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 1: I think for me, it's realizing. And if you just

870
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: study history you can see this. It's never an impending event.

871
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 1: It's just a process that we go through. So the

872
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: dollar isn't going to die, but it is dying. To

873
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: your point that you said, you know, central bank holdings

874
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 1: of gold has now surpassed US treasuries, partly because gold

875
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 1: doubled from two thousand to five thousand, But that is true.

876
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 1: So the dollar is not imminent death coming, but it

877
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 1: is dying, and it's being used less and less, you know,

878
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: and it continues to buy you less and less. And

879
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,479
Speaker 1: so I think if you look back and understand history,

880
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: you see like when the gold i'm sorry, when the

881
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:51,919
Speaker 1: dollar took over from the pound sterling one hundred years ago,

882
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: that was about a forty year process. But the pound

883
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: sterling is still like the third most uiced currency today,

884
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: so it's not gone, and so we can think about

885
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 1: it like that. So maybe other things start being used

886
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: more than the dollar or US treasuries as a reserve,

887
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean it just goes away, doesn't mean

888
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 1: it just dies.

889
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 3: I would be very surprised if at this point, another

890
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 3: government fiat becomes the global reserve currency if the dollar

891
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 3: does not cease to exist, but does lose its status, right,

892
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 3: I do think it would be something backed by a

893
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 3: hard asset like bitcoin or a international digital money. Maybe

894
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 3: that isn't bitcoin, that's created by the European Central Bank

895
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 3: or something unfortunately, some sort of central bank digital currency.

896
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 3: But the next currency is not going to be one

897
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 3: of these dinosaurs that's in existence forever, and the United

898
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 3: States will lose its global reserve currency status. It's happened

899
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 3: to every single one in history. It's just a matter

900
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 3: of time.

901
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, And I agree with you. I don't think

902
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 1: there's another next. There's not another next. We're moving into

903
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: a decentralized world and it's going to be something that's

904
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: neutral there, which is what I told the gold people

905
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 1: gold today. But the if you just if you get

906
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 1: rid of bitcoin and get rid of your bias to bitcoin,

907
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 1: and just think, how does the world move forward trading globally,

908
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: which we need to How does the world move forward

909
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: in a way that you know needs a neutral reserve asset,

910
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: And so if you understand needs a neutrol reserve asset

911
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: like gold, but gold doesn't work because the limitations. But

912
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: can we agree that we need a neutral asset? And

913
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 1: if we can agree that we need a neutral asset,

914
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: then then what and.

915
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 2: We can kind of like well, States won't agree, but

916
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 2: the rest of the world certainly.

917
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: You know, I would say that the Trump administration would agree.

918
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: Trump perscent, let nick those guys they seem to, I

919
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 1: mean percent has been very favorable to both gold and bitcoin,

920
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 1: and many people might even say as far as maybe

921
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:56,240
Speaker 1: even potentially encouraging other nations to start diversifying into gold

922
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 1: and bitcoin. And actually, you know, Luke Gramman talks about

923
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: a bit even urging or even forcing China to sort

924
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:08,359
Speaker 1: of divest out of the US currency. So the US

925
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 1: government's not a monolith, right, Like, there's different people with

926
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 1: different different things. But let's talk about the politics piece.

927
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 1: So bitcoin has done what it's done in spite of politics,

928
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,760
Speaker 1: attacking at every turn at twist and turn right, Operation,

929
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: choke Point, choke point one, choke point two, Genzler, all

930
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: of these things. O other you know, China's banned I

931
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 1: don't know thirteen times or fourteen times whatever, and it's

932
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 1: done everything in spite of that. But the Trump administration

933
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: has literally one hundred and eighty degrees, and we've gone

934
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:42,360
Speaker 1: from headwinds to now telwins. It seems that the political

935
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: climate has become at least much more favorable than it

936
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: used to be. What's your read on that governments will

937
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 1: never stop printing money? So inflation it's not going away now.

938
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,720
Speaker 1: If your money is not earning at least ten percent

939
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 1: a year, you're losing purchasing power. Now, that's why I

940
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: talk about bitcoin. It's the number one to beat inflation

941
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: and secure your future. And the question I get asked

942
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 1: almost every day is where do you buy your bitcoin? Now?

943
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: For years, I've personally used River dot com and I

944
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: only take on sponsors that I use and I trust,

945
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: and I trust them because River's bitcoin only. They have

946
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,240
Speaker 1: one hundred percent reserve, and they keep your bitcoin safe

947
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: in cold storage with no middlemen, and you can actually

948
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 1: talk to a real person, a US based support, dedicated manager. Now,

949
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: try getting that peace of mind from coinbase. Of course

950
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 1: you can't. Now the perks. If you set up auto buys,

951
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 1: you can pay zero fees plus instead of you're bank

952
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: paying you, you know, zero point four percent on cash,

953
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 1: River pays you three point seven five percent on cash

954
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 1: paid in bitcoin. So if you're ready to build your

955
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: bitcoin position with confidence, go to River dot com slash

956
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 1: Mark Moss and get up to one hundred dollars in

957
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: bitcoin when you sign up. Because freedom starts when you

958
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 1: own your money, and your money starts with bitcoin, there's.

959
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 3: No question that it's become more favorable. You can look

960
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 3: around the United States government and the head of literally

961
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 3: every agency, whether it's economic or financial related or otherwise,

962
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 3: is a big cooin.

963
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 1: Yeah right.

964
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 3: I mean RFK is a bitcointer, has nothing to do

965
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 3: with our monetary policy, but the heads of every agency,

966
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 3: and I think that's just because of the type of

967
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 3: people that Donald Trump appointed, Right, they're all freedom thinkers, libertarians.

968
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 1: Well they were all they were all they were all Democrats.

969
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, certainly at the main regulators, we have

970
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 3: you know, Ceiing at the CFDC and Atkins at the SEC,

971
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 3: and both of these guys are huge bitcointers. Yeah right,

972
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:37,280
Speaker 3: And so the environment from that perspective, it's the best

973
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 3: it's ever been.

974
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:38,839
Speaker 2: I think.

975
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 3: You know, we have some tailwinds for legislation. We got

976
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 3: the Genius Act, whether you celebrate that or not, but

977
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 3: certainly made stable coins viable. I have my doubts about

978
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 3: the Clarity Act. Personally, don't even care at this point.

979
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,800
Speaker 3: I think we'll continue to build a strategic bitcoin reserve

980
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 3: by staling bitcoins from criminals and in other countries, probably

981
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 3: not by bi it. But there's two sides of the

982
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,400
Speaker 3: coin when it comes to Trump, obviously, so I think

983
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 3: the political environment for crypto and for bitcoin is exponentially better.

984
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 3: But his personal involvement and launching a mean coin days

985
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 3: before he was inaugurated, and his family's involvement, for better

986
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: or worse, that muddy is the picture and once again

987
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 3: makes it much more political. So I think in a

988
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 3: world where there was just government support for it, but

989
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 3: not necessarily Trump family support for it, it would be

990
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 3: a much easier time. And I'm definitely concerned that our

991
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 3: goldilocks moment here with legislation and politics is going to

992
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 3: come to an end when inevitably one of the houses

993
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 3: probably goes blue at the midterms, because that's just what happens.

994
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 3: It's not an indictment of Trump, it's just rarely, does

995
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 3: you know, any party hold every part of the government

996
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 3: past the midterms, because it's really hard to govern and

997
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 3: it's really easy to fire shots from the sidelines, and

998
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 3: then we're gonna have a re empowered anti crypto army,

999
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,240
Speaker 3: right because going after sure crypto now is going after

1000
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 3: Trump personally, and that's not the environment I think that

1001
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 3: we necessarily wanted.

1002
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 2: Right. If you actually take a look at.

1003
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,919
Speaker 3: The Clarity Act, which everybody thought was a slam dunk,

1004
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 3: was definitely going to pass. You can read the mainstream

1005
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 3: narratives for why it isn't passing that Brian Armstrong was

1006
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 3: upset about stable coin yield and decided to pull coinbase support.

1007
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 3: But last I check, Coinbase isn't in the Senate voting

1008
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 3: for the Clarity Act, right, And they talked about tax

1009
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 3: on DeFi and the tokenization of securities being illegal. The

1010
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 3: real sticking point that I don't think they get passed

1011
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,839
Speaker 3: is an ethics clause. Democrats are not signing a bill

1012
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 3: that allows Trump and his family to profit.

1013
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 2: From crypto, and Trump is not going to sign a

1014
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 2: bill where.

1015
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 3: The Democrats put it in an ethics clog, that clause

1016
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 3: that ban him from participating in the crypto industry.

1017
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 2: It's a non starter.

1018
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 3: And that seems like an ocean between those two positions,

1019
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 3: and I don't see how they ever come together on that.

1020
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: And so I think sadly maybe the legislation that people

1021
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:02,439
Speaker 3: wanted is being blocked because his family participated so much.

1022
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 3: Now you don't have to make a judgment on whether

1023
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 3: his family participating is right or wrong. I'm just saying

1024
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 3: that that's the perception, and it's going to be weaponized

1025
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 3: by the Democrats when it comes to election time and

1026
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 3: if they win. Certainly after you realize if the Democrats

1027
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: win the Senate, that Elizabeth Warren once again becomes probably

1028
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 3: the chair of the Senate Financial Committee.

1029
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, like the public.

1030
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 3: Enemy number one back in the strongest position to hurt

1031
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:25,760
Speaker 3: the industry.

1032
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:31,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you know, I think certainly we see a

1033
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 1: lot of talk about reform and specifically getting the insider

1034
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 1: trading clause put into the government. Right, so Nancy Pelosi

1035
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 1: isn't the best performing investor in the world anymore or

1036
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 1: something like that, which of course makes sense. Why would

1037
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: you be trading on inside information? I mean, Martha Stewart

1038
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: went to prison for less. I think there's a big

1039
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 1: distinction between securities and commodities. So because the security per

1040
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 1: the Howie test is a common enterprise that can affect

1041
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 1: it so then you could have you could add of

1042
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:01,720
Speaker 1: inside information on a on a security on a common enterprise,

1043
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: but a commodity gold or oil or something like that,

1044
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: Like how do you have any It seemed it has

1045
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 1: always been judged a little bit differently. So like presidents

1046
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 1: or any politician for that matter, can own assets, they

1047
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: can't divest of everything that maybe they shouldn't have a

1048
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: business a common enterprise that they have the ability to affect,

1049
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 1: but like they are not allowed to own any assets.

1050
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 1: They have to sell everything they owned. They're going to

1051
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: own gold, They're going to own oil, Like why does

1052
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: that matter? And I would put big one in that camp.

1053
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 1: I think the point that you're making is while you

1054
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 1: may agree with me, the other side might not see

1055
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: it that way.

1056
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, once again comes back to perception and narrative, and

1057
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 3: they're going to use that narrative to reignite the anti

1058
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 3: crypto army.

1059
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 2: I can just see it coming.

1060
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 3: Right, We had this goldilocks period, and I think that

1061
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 3: that comes to an end.

1062
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:57,760
Speaker 2: That is that really the meme coin no was horrible?

1063
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 1: Is that really an anti capitalist capitalistic viewpoint? Like they

1064
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: just want they just don't want anybody to have any

1065
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 1: wealth and why should he have wealth and benefit from

1066
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: more wealth, and he should just sell everything and everybody

1067
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 1: should just sell everything, and like the Mandami approach kind

1068
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:14,240
Speaker 1: of thing.

1069
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 3: I think to some degree, I mean, I think, you know,

1070
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 3: there are obviously rules about what presidents can or can't

1071
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 3: do that exists long before our current you know, politicals

1072
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 3: I think battles over.

1073
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 2: What he can do.

1074
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 3: But with any law or rule, obviously it gets interpreted

1075
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 3: in the direction that somebody wants to use it, right,

1076
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 3: And I think that we're seeing the most aggressive usage

1077
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 3: of it, I mean, to your point, Like, I think

1078
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 3: literally everybody supports banning government officials from trading on insider information, right,

1079
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 3: but that should not be unique to the Clarity Act,

1080
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 3: and Trump and his family no, right. And so the

1081
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 3: insanity of the fact that people who are benefiting from

1082
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 3: insider information making money in markets have an opinion on

1083
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 3: what Trump's doing in crypto is Yeah, the irony that's

1084
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,919
Speaker 3: the problem is like there's just never consistency and it's

1085
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:14,240
Speaker 3: always fine if I do it, but it's terrible if

1086
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 3: the person that doesn't like I don't like is doing it,

1087
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 3: and it's it's nonsensical.

1088
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Well, we'll get out of politics, since

1089
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 1: that's probably both of our least favorite subjects. But to

1090
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 1: your point that you made earlier, I mean, it is

1091
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 1: what drives the markets today. We're ideological buyers, and so

1092
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 1: we have to be aware of that. I think it

1093
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 1: was Jeff Park put out up. Yeah, it was Jeff Park.

1094
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 1: He put out up article maybe last September or October,

1095
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 1: and he talked about the end of the intelligent investor

1096
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 1: and the age of the ideological investor. I don't know

1097
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 1: if you saw that piece of research. I thought it

1098
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:49,959
Speaker 1: was pretty interesting. So like the value the value investor

1099
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 1: of Benjamin Graham, the warm Buffett buys things based off

1100
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: of their inherent value, at their ability to grow profits

1101
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:58,439
Speaker 1: with a you know, a capital efficiency. But he said,

1102
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:00,720
Speaker 1: now we have the rise of the idea logical buyer.

1103
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 1: So when you see like Sidney Sweeney post about genes

1104
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 1: and then American Eagle like takes off, or Budweiser does

1105
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 1: the Dylan of anything, and then there's stock tanks and

1106
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: so like, people aren't buying based off of like a

1107
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 1: value lens and now it's just an ideological lens. And

1108
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 1: so it's like a massive shift. So it doesn't matter.

1109
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: But to wind this down, I guess, uh, what do

1110
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 1: you Where are you thinking we're going from here? What

1111
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 1: are you what are you watching? What are you paying

1112
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: attention to? What are the kind of key things that

1113
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: you're going to keep an eye on.

1114
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 3: I don't think that there are any immediate catalysts on

1115
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 3: the horizon that are going to send price flying, but

1116
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 3: there never are when that catalyst arrives. You know, Silicon

1117
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 3: Valley Bank, you could argue, was the catalyst that really

1118
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 3: started the last hole market from the bottom right, Silicon

1119
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 3: Valley Valley Bank collapsed. Even myself, anecdotally, I was holding

1120
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 3: a bunch of USDC. I sold it into bitcoin, right.

1121
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 3: I bought bitcoin with my USDC because I knew that

1122
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 3: USDC had money in Silicon Valley Bank, and I didn't

1123
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 3: know if the FED would come in with their bazooka

1124
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,280
Speaker 3: and bail them out. Right, And so we saw bitcoin

1125
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 3: go from nineteen thousand to twenty five thousand because of

1126
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 3: a banking collapse. And that was a really fundamental reason

1127
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 3: and a trigger I don't think anyone saw coming at

1128
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:11,280
Speaker 3: that moment for bitcoin. And that was really the bottom,

1129
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 3: you know, that put in the bottom and the slow

1130
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 3: ascent of bitcoin, so there could be an unforeseen catalyst

1131
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:18,240
Speaker 3: that is coming.

1132
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:20,760
Speaker 2: More importantly, I don't think that we need one.

1133
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 3: I think that we've just far overshot now in the

1134
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 3: negative direction. I think that the selling climax is coming

1135
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 3: to an end, and I think people are just going

1136
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 3: to start buying bitcoin again, and as it always does,

1137
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 3: it'll climb this wall of worry, and then it'll start

1138
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 3: to reach certain prices where everybody realizes it's not completely

1139
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:40,479
Speaker 3: dead and they're interested in it. And then it'll pass

1140
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:42,239
Speaker 3: one hundred and they'll say, Wow, I got to get

1141
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 3: into this. It's clearly going at all time high. It'll

1142
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 3: break one twenty five, will be a one to fifty

1143
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:48,400
Speaker 3: in a week. Yeah, and it'll do what bitcoin does.

1144
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 3: I'm really not that concerned about it. Maybe that will

1145
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 3: take longer, Maybe it won't be on a schedule that

1146
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 3: we can anticipate like we have been able to in

1147
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 3: the past. But a major black swan event in the

1148
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 3: economy where I think everything correlates to one and goes

1149
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,640
Speaker 3: down together, we've seen it, just like March of twenty twenty.

1150
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:12,760
Speaker 3: Barring that happening, I think bitcoin will start to rise

1151
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 3: from here. Or that it's bottom ing in this area.

1152
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 3: You know, like if it goes to fifty to fifty five,

1153
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,480
Speaker 3: that's a rounding error to me when we've already gotten

1154
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 3: to sixty. Right, And where did you want to be

1155
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 3: in March of twenty twenty with your money?

1156
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 2: Right? I mean bitcoin went from.

1157
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 3: Six thousand to under four thousand, and March twelfth, I

1158
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:33,360
Speaker 3: think the stock market bottom thirteen days later it was

1159
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:33,799
Speaker 3: all over.

1160
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:34,959
Speaker 2: Everything was going to zero.

1161
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 1: Markets were never coming to a scary call.

1162
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know stocks did they did a casual

1163
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 2: two x, it was great. What did bitcoin do? It

1164
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 2: went up seventeen x.

1165
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 3: So even if you get that black swan, where do

1166
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 3: you want your money to be when the bottom is

1167
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 3: put in? My bet would be on bitcoin over buying stocks, indexes, silver, gold,

1168
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 3: or anything else. And to be honest, we all know that,

1169
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 3: you know, bitcoin is one of those assets. Most of

1170
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 3: the profits if you are trading it to make dollars,

1171
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 3: they come ten days a year.

1172
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 2: Right.

1173
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 3: We viewed bigcoins as this wildly volatile asset because of

1174
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,280
Speaker 3: moves like yesterday, But most of the time it's boring

1175
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 3: inside and if you try to go in and out

1176
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 3: and time it perfectly. You're probably going to miss the

1177
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,959
Speaker 3: big days when all the gains are made. So I

1178
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 3: close my eyes if I feel like puking. If I

1179
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 3: got to buy the blood in the streets, even if

1180
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 3: it's mine, you can pick your axiom. I just buy them,

1181
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 3: and I just keep buying it, and I know that

1182
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 3: I'll have it whenever that thing happens.

1183
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:33,600
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, that's a good a good place for us

1184
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 1: to stop, Scott. Always a pleasure talking.

1185
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 2: To you, man.

1186
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:38,640
Speaker 1: You have so much information, You talk to, so many people,

1187
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:40,360
Speaker 1: you look at so much news. You have such a

1188
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 1: good wide breath of all this. So appreciate you taking

1189
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 1: the time to come on and talk.

1190
00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 2: Thank you man, it's really an honor.

1191
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 1: And love the new studio. We'll make sure to link

1192
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 1: to is stuff down below, but of course you can

1193
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 1: just find him very easily. Scott Milker, Wolf of all streets,

1194
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:56,280
Speaker 1: not just Wall Street, all streets.

1195
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 2: All right, thanks so much, RAZYB