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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from the test throwing out so spec

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Speaker 3: so're sitting. It's a cash touchtop.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to winning.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible. Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, This is the ultimate combine if you want

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Speaker 1: to back, and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I'm joined as always

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Speaker 2: by the great Brandon Anderson for some best bets for

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Speaker 2: NFL Week six. We will get to those bets shortly,

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Speaker 2: and of course Brandon's commentary on my notes and trends

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Speaker 2: here coming up. But let's let's get into a few

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Speaker 2: things heading into the week that I thought, you know,

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Speaker 2: might be a nice table setter. So underdogs nine and

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Speaker 2: five straight up and against the spread last week. Dogs

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Speaker 2: had not gone nine and five straight up or better

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Speaker 2: in a single week since twenty seventeen, the last time

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Speaker 2: we saw three hunderdogs of over a touchdown win outright,

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Speaker 2: which of course happened last week. In the chaos, favorites

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Speaker 2: actually went ten to five and one ats the next week,

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Speaker 2: so we will see how that goes in terms of

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Speaker 2: the bounce back, because it had gone one way then

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Speaker 2: we flipped, so we will see there now. The other one,

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Speaker 2: I thought that was kind of interesting because I thought

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Speaker 2: it gives the league a bit of a balance beam,

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Speaker 2: which is, through five weeks, the NFC is eighteen and

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Speaker 2: nine against the spread in its twenty seven games. When

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Speaker 2: facing the AFC, the NFC is five hundred ats or

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Speaker 2: better in all five weeks of the season so far,

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Speaker 2: and that eighteen and nine ATS mark is the second

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Speaker 2: best for either conference through five weeks. In the wildcard era,

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Speaker 2: we actually have six matchups in that area this week,

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Speaker 2: So I thought it was a little interesting. I know,

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Speaker 2: the quarterback topic, a bunch of different reasons or excuses

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Speaker 2: why Brandon. Either of those kind of hit you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the NFC one is interesting. It's not something that

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Speaker 1: I would typically notice or pay attention to, but it

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Speaker 1: kind of checks out with even back before the season,

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Speaker 1: where it's like, okay, man, I got like twelve NFC teams,

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Speaker 1: how do I pick only seven for the playoffs? And

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Speaker 1: over in the AFC, it's like I got like five,

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Speaker 1: I gotta find two more over here and the problem

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Speaker 1: even further is that we talked about like in the

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Speaker 1: different rankings are different rankings podcasts. The AFC is the quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: the NFC has the everything else. Okay, well, what happens

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Speaker 1: when the quarterbacks get hurt? Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, what

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Speaker 1: happens when that happens? Well, we get what's happening right now.

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Speaker 1: The AFC trailing far behind, and it's just like, man,

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Speaker 1: who's going to claim these spots over there? And I

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Speaker 1: think too, maybe they'll catch up. Maybe teams like Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 1: some of these teams that were overlooked. Will we start

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Speaker 1: to kind of recalibrate on them if they continue to

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Speaker 1: do this thing.

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Speaker 3: I was pleased.

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Speaker 1: I quick skim through my picks today. My top pick

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Speaker 1: on the slate this week is in fact NFC versus AFC,

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Speaker 1: and I'm on NFC side, So I was like, okay,

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Speaker 1: we got one there, And yeah, I wondered. Also the

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Speaker 1: underdog stat it makes sense. There's so many trends that

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Speaker 1: tell you after the underdog got the big win and

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Speaker 1: now everyone's high on their own stuff and the market's

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Speaker 1: high on the team. Now you go back the other way.

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Speaker 1: So it does make sense after a huge underdog week,

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Speaker 1: carnage in survivor leagues everywhere, this seems like maybe kind

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Speaker 1: of a restabilizing week, and we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 1: By the time folks listen to this, we'll already have

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Speaker 1: kind of our first test of it Thursday night Philly

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Speaker 1: and the Giants. That's one that I had on the

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Speaker 1: look ahead. I was very confident the Eagles are getting

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Speaker 1: some injuries on the line. We'll see how that holds up,

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Speaker 1: and it's kind of our first test of Okay, big

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Speaker 1: favorite long shot matchup here. Who comes out on top

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Speaker 1: and we'll kind of set the tone for a new week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean when you take a look aheadline, you

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Speaker 2: were asking for the Eagles to come off a loss.

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Speaker 2: That would be the best scenario and kind of perfect

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Speaker 2: in that scenario. So you got what you wanted there.

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Speaker 2: I also feel like this is worth noting AFC North

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Speaker 2: four and eleven against the spread versus non Division this

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Speaker 2: year and the NFC North doing the same thing they've

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Speaker 2: been doing the last few years, but this number is ridiculous.

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Speaker 2: Last three years versus Non Division sixty six and thirty

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Speaker 2: nine against the spread just ridiculous numbers. All right, So

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Speaker 2: before we move on, don't forget to sign up for

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Speaker 2: Action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts like

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire Action network team. Plus you

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Speaker 2: can access our pro projections pared by Sean Kerner and

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Speaker 2: our predictive analytics team. So go to Actionnework dot com

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Speaker 2: slash pro, get twenty dollars off the annual price with

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Speaker 2: All right, Time for the main course. Let's get to

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Speaker 2: the NFL Week six best bets. If you want to

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Speaker 2: tail some of these bets, look for the quick slip

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Speaker 2: link in the podcast and video description or go to

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Speaker 2: actionower dot com slash bet. Now this your best bet,

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Speaker 2: all right. Brandon Seattle and Jacksonville both off very interesting performances. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: they I think both better than we thought they would

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Speaker 2: be at this point in the season. Even if we

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Speaker 2: liked Jacksonville and I'll talk to I'll talk to you

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Speaker 2: about some Sam Darnold numbers after you're done. But what

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Speaker 2: are you doing in this matchup of up and comers

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Speaker 2: let's call it? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I like the Seahawks here, and you're right, this is

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Speaker 3: a fun one.

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Speaker 1: Like who would have thought coming into this week a

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Speaker 1: month ago this would be one of the games we'd circle,

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Speaker 1: you know, coming into a big NFL week, But it

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Speaker 1: looks like a really big and pretty fun matchup here.

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Speaker 1: I like the Seahawks. This one's moving around as we record.

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Speaker 1: Seahawks have been an underdog. They're starting to become a

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Speaker 1: favorite at some books, So I take them at the

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half. If you get a plus one,

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Speaker 1: if you need to take the money line, it's probably

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Speaker 1: going to come out in the wash there, but obviously

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Speaker 1: shot round for the best line. So this sort of

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Speaker 1: fits really both of the trends we just talked about

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Speaker 1: at the top.

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Speaker 3: Here we got.

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Speaker 1: NFC versus AFC. My childhood heart still here's AFCAFC Right.

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Speaker 1: Seahawks used to be in the AFC back in the day,

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Speaker 1: but they're NFC now, So favor to the NFC as

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Speaker 1: things have gone so far, and a great spot to

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Speaker 1: buy low on a team that lost last week and

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Speaker 1: to fade the team coming off the big emotional home

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Speaker 1: win Jacksonville, Monday night, short rest after a big win.

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Speaker 1: They got the win. The Chiefs were the better team

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Speaker 1: in that game. We need to talk about it because

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Speaker 1: it's Monday and not Sunday. But the Chiefs had sixty

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Speaker 1: four percent success rate offensively in that game. That is

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Speaker 1: the hundredth percentile. You do not want your defense to

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Speaker 1: give up a successful play two out of every three.

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Speaker 1: That's not great. Obviously, the Jaguars won by three. They

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Speaker 1: needed the stumbling, bumbling Chris Berman into the end zone

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Speaker 1: touchdown at the end, but they also needed less. We

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Speaker 1: forget a pick six at the goal line that was

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Speaker 1: effectively a fourteen point swing. That's seven off the board, Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: seven on the board, Jacksonville. You need fourteen there and

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Speaker 1: you need the late score to win by three. I

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Speaker 1: think probably that means we're gonna be a little bit

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Speaker 1: overinflated on you. Seattle was my pick last week. They lost,

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Speaker 1: but their offense was incredible against Tampa Bay. They made

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Speaker 1: a few mistakes. Tampa Bay was great. Seattle's defense got

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Speaker 1: a bunch of injuries and couldn't really hold up. But

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Speaker 1: I still think here in this matchup, Seattle is the

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Speaker 1: better team. I think they clearly should be the favorite.

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Speaker 1: I think by Sunday they will be at all books.

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Speaker 1: Their second in DVA so far in the season, not

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Speaker 1: surprising some of the parts. They lead in special teams,

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Speaker 1: that's usual for Seattle. The seventh defensively, that's not surprising.

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Speaker 1: Second against the run. What's shocking is number three on

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Speaker 1: offense and number one passing offense. You said you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have some stats on Sam Darnold. My guy has been

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Speaker 1: lighting it up and Jackson Smith and Jigba looks like

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Speaker 1: a true wide receiver one. And we get a bunch

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Speaker 1: of trades this week in the NFL. Kind of weird.

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Speaker 1: But I kind of think Greg Newsom, the guy that

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville just got from the Browns, is he covering JSN?

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Speaker 1: Is that what's happening here? Like we just got you

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday and now you're covering the star receiver over here.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about that. Neither defense was good last week.

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Speaker 1: Seattle's pass defense got shredded. They dropped from number two

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Speaker 1: in DVAA to league average, like a huge drop there,

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Speaker 1: But for all the good things Jacksonville's doing, Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: in the passing game is not really it. So I

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Speaker 1: don't know that they're a built to hurt this defense there.

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Speaker 1: Ancle should be a little bit healthier. Jacksonville's defense, we

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Speaker 1: talked about it. They got shredded by the Chiefs. Trayvon Locker,

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Speaker 1: if he's out again, is a huge mess for them.

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Speaker 1: Their pressure rate dropped to twenty four percent last week,

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Speaker 1: down from thirty four percent on the season. I do

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Speaker 1: like Jacksonville, I just like Seattle better in this matchup.

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Speaker 1: A stat for you here. If Seattle remains an underdog

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Speaker 1: in weeks six and seven, underdogs of a touchdown or

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Speaker 1: less against elite ATS teams, so that's an eighty percent

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Speaker 1: to ninety nine percent ATS cover rate, Those underdogs are

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Speaker 1: forty one sixteen and a one ATS seventy two percent

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Speaker 1: cover rate, and this is if healthy a luck ranking side,

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Speaker 1: So Seattle plus one and a half or again, best

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Speaker 1: number that you can find out there. I do prefer

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Speaker 1: the one and a half or the one if you

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Speaker 1: can get it both. These coaches tend to be aggressive

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Speaker 1: and you maybe get a go for two for the

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Speaker 1: Wain or something, and a little escalator for you on

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Speaker 1: this one, not only game, but on a future. I

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Speaker 1: like Seattle to win the division five to one. In

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Speaker 1: the NFCUS, the Niners are four to one, but a

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Speaker 1: lot of injuries, Evan, You and I have talked a

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Speaker 1: lot about them. They're underdogs on the road this week.

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Speaker 1: I don't know pick for that game, but these teams,

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Speaker 1: those two and the Rams project all about equal at

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Speaker 1: like ten ten and a half wins. Seattle at FTN

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Speaker 1: is about twenty six percent to win the division. That

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Speaker 1: would put them shorter than plus three hundred. We're getting

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Speaker 1: plus five hundred here on what looks like a top

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Speaker 1: ten offense, probably a top five defense, one's healthy, number

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Speaker 1: one special teams, top five coaching staff. Right now, I

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Speaker 1: can't even believe it. Seattle is my number four power

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Speaker 1: rated team. I don't know how we got here, but

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Speaker 1: give me Seattle against Jacksonville and give me Seattle plus

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Speaker 1: five hundred the division.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're not going to get any argument from me

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Speaker 2: not taking San Francisco to win the NFC West if

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Speaker 2: you've heard me in the past few months. So completely

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Speaker 2: good there. Sam Darnold stat adjusted EPA per play success rate,

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Speaker 2: completion percentage over expected. He is the leader in all

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Speaker 2: three categories through five weeks. Other than not even really

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Speaker 2: believing what I'm telling you, which I'm telling you it's true,

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Speaker 2: feels ridiculous, but also last two seasons, he's fourteen eight

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Speaker 2: and one against the spread, covering numbers, playing well, two

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Speaker 2: completely different teams, two really good head coaches. I think

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Speaker 2: is something that I look at when I look at

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Speaker 2: Minnesota and Seattle, definitely helping them along. I'm gonna I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna be from the sideline in this one because I

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Speaker 2: just feel like it's two unexpected good teams. I thought

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville would be pretty good. I didn't think Seattle would

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Speaker 2: be this good. So I feel like I have to

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Speaker 2: kind of wait and see. You didn't mention it, but

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Speaker 2: Seattle's been absolutely nails on the road, nine and one

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Speaker 2: straight up, six three and one against spread under McDonald's.

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Speaker 2: I don't really understand what's going on at home, but

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Speaker 2: on the road, they're ridiculous. All right, let's go to

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Speaker 2: your next one here AFC North. Everybody but the Steelers

229
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Speaker 2: has been playing pretty bad, and then the Steelers to

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Speaker 2: me just kind of mediocre. So Cleveland, Pittsburgh. What's the

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Speaker 2: what's the way here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: So Steelers was our hot read on Sunday night, minus

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Speaker 1: four and a half. I'm just rein four saying it.

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Speaker 1: I'm doubling down. I'm still Steelers here. It's minus five

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Speaker 1: and a half now at DraftKings, our sponsor. I'm just

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Speaker 1: telling you I still like it. There's been a lot

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Speaker 1: to talk about this game this week. It's pushing I

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Speaker 1: think towards six. Five is kind of joining toward the

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Speaker 1: key numbers now. But you want to grab me four

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Speaker 1: to six if you can, So Steelers. Anything south of

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Speaker 1: six is the pick.

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Speaker 3: Again.

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Speaker 1: This is the single biggest schedule advantage spot on the

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Speaker 1: calendar this season, and quite frankly, maybe one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest schedule advantage spots I've ever seen on the NFL calendar.

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Speaker 1: The Browns are coming from London on Sunday. We just

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Speaker 1: watched them play Sunday morning. NFL teams are given the

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Speaker 1: option to take a bye week after traveling overseas. They declined,

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Speaker 1: So here we go from London to Pittsburgh from Detroit

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Speaker 1: before that. This is a three week road trip with

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Speaker 1: no Cleveland in between, and you got Dylan Gabriel making

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Speaker 1: his first true road start here in Pittsburgh. And on

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Speaker 1: the flip side of it, not only do you have

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Speaker 1: that negative spot for Cleveland, Pittsburgh last game was in

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Speaker 1: London too. It just so, I guess Dublin, but Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: played overseas but then had a bye week. They haven't

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Speaker 1: played since that game. And for this team, an older

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Speaker 1: roster that had a bunch of injuries, a really important

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Speaker 1: early bye week for them. This is a spot that

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Speaker 1: I would have bet blind before the season. You just

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Speaker 1: can't quantify the impact of that schedule spot Pittsburgh. Look

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Speaker 1: at the injury report. Alex high Smith he's practicing again. Okay, great,

264
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Speaker 1: the Browns don't have tackles, so TJ. Watt getting Alex

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Speaker 1: high Smith back, that'd be a big deal. Joey Porter,

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Speaker 1: full practice, Jalen Wrren full practice was a late scratch

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Speaker 1: in the last game they played. Getting those guys back

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Speaker 1: and getting this defense a little more right after a

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Speaker 1: pretty rough start opening month. If we're being honest, I

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Speaker 1: think that's a big deal. At home against Dylan Gabriel,

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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin has covered six of seven games off the

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Speaker 1: bye week, won all seven outright, and in this rivalry,

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Speaker 1: the home team dominates seven straight. Home team wins by

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Speaker 1: nine points a game. In the rivalry, home teams typically

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Speaker 1: are a good first half play after the bye week.

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Speaker 1: So that's good for Pittsburgh front foot. You're playing Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: ball and now you got Dylan Gabriel tired on the road.

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Speaker 1: Effectively kind of a short week because you get the

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Speaker 1: international stuff as well, and now you're on the back

280
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Speaker 1: foot as well. Stefanski thirty four percent cover right in

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Speaker 1: division games.

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Speaker 3: And if you still believe.

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Speaker 1: The Aaron Rodgers trends, they all like this one. Rodgers

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Speaker 1: at home. Rodgers as a favorite, one score favorite off

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Speaker 1: of bye week. Division of favor like Rogers is good,

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Speaker 1: it turns out, so of course the trends like Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: But just a lot of stuff to like about Pittsburgh here.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a good survivor pick for this week.

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is not a team that you're gonna feel great

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Speaker 1: about using much again this season. The schedule gets a

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Speaker 1: lot tougher going forward. It's a huge, huge schedule advantage spot.

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Speaker 1: So again Steelers hot read four and a hal half.

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Speaker 1: Here we are at five and a half, grab it

294
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Speaker 1: if you can before it gets two.

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Speaker 2: Six. Yeah, I really feel like it's going to be

296
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Speaker 2: six because I keep asking myself why isn't it higher?

297
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Speaker 2: Like why isn't the spread higher? At this point? I

298
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Speaker 2: think at least one of the answers would be the total,

299
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Speaker 2: Like how much higher can you go with a thirty

300
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Speaker 2: eight and a half? That was thirty seven and a half.

301
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Speaker 2: When I was handicapping this game, the thing that I

302
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Speaker 2: looked at most was Aaron Rodgers this season a full

303
00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 2: tenth of a second quicker than the second shortest quarterback

304
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Speaker 2: in terms of time to throw. That man is getting

305
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Speaker 2: it out super quickly, even quicker than last year. And

306
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Speaker 2: I think that's really really good against a Cleveland defense

307
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Speaker 2: that they're gonna get after you. Really good from that

308
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Speaker 2: side of the ball. Offensively, Again, trying to protect Pittsburgh

309
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Speaker 2: very difficult, but I think Rogers has a really nice

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Speaker 2: advantage there that should help Pittsburgh. Also, you mentioned it,

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh won and covered five straight off the buy since

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, including this one, was the one I like

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Speaker 2: In ear season buys. Tolman has been really good as well,

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Speaker 2: so I like Pittsburgh. I'm with you all right, keep

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Speaker 2: going here? You were going to go speaking of London, Yes, Broncos,

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Speaker 2: this one is I mean, the trends kind of bring

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Speaker 2: you into one direction. But I don't really like the

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Speaker 2: trends in this one. I don't think it tells the

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Speaker 2: full story. I think it's an on the field matchup.

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Speaker 2: More so, what are you doing with Jets Broncos?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm curious. Once I'm done with my pick, which

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Speaker 1: side do you think the trends are pointing. I think

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Speaker 1: I'm fading the trends here and I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 1: the Jets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Look, I've been looking for a while for a spot

327
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Speaker 1: to fade Denver now coming off of Philadelphia win even

328
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Speaker 1: better because I think they're extra inflated. But I was

329
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Speaker 1: looking for a spot before that, and frankly this sounds

330
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Speaker 1: like crazy talk. I've been looking for a spot to

331
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Speaker 1: invest in the Jets. I don't think the Jets, despite

332
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Speaker 1: being the last winless team, I don't think they are

333
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Speaker 1: the worst team in the league. Honestly, don't think they're

334
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Speaker 1: close to the worst team.

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Speaker 3: In the league.

336
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Speaker 1: So typically I'm all about back the international favorite. You know,

337
00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 1: there are a lot of trends we know about bo Nicks.

338
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 1: He's basically like unbeatable as a favorite, justin fields as

339
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 1: an underdog. All the trends are popping to say, don't

340
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 1: do this, Brandon, don't do it. Take Denver, but seven

341
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 1: and a half, especially Jets plus seven and a half,

342
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 1: it's just too many points for me here. The Jets

343
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,919
Speaker 1: continue to be top ten success rate offense and defense.

344
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:25,639
Speaker 3: People this week.

345
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Speaker 1: I'm seeing in podcasts and articles Aaron Glani's failing is

346
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 1: not doing great so far? What the Jets are top

347
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 1: ten success offense and defense like, things are going pretty well,

348
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 1: Tanner Engstram. The offense has been creative given the talent

349
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 1: they have. You have one receiver and no quarterback, and

350
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,160
Speaker 1: they're moving the ball. They're going on these long drives.

351
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,040
Speaker 1: I'm admittedly less enthusiastic about the defense. The worst pass

352
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 1: DVA defense in the league. That's not supposed to be

353
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 1: the case with this team, but the Broncos really only

354
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,080
Speaker 1: have one good receiver, Sutton, and I think Sauce Gardner,

355
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 1: the one good part of the Jets pass defense can

356
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 1: hopefully keep him in check. Of course, the main problem

357
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 1: with the Jets is they're the anti Jaguars this season, right,

358
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:13,080
Speaker 1: it's turnovers. Eight turnovers so far, not horrible, but certainly

359
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:17,160
Speaker 1: not great. Zero turnovers forced. And if you look at

360
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 1: just fumbles, they have fumbled seven times. That's too many,

361
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 1: that's tied for the most, but they've only recovered two

362
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,239
Speaker 1: of seven. Typically, fumbles are basically fifty to fifty and

363
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 1: the luck evens out over time. They've recovered well under

364
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. On defense, they've forced five, they've recovered

365
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,120
Speaker 1: zero because they have no turnovers so far. So twelve

366
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 1: fumbles in Jets games this season, they've recovered two. The

367
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,120
Speaker 1: chance of you recovering two or less out of twelve,

368
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 1: if it's truly fifty to fifty, is under two percent.

369
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 1: That's how unlucky the Jets have been. And surprise, surprise,

370
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 1: I pull up the luck rankings that we do at

371
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Speaker 1: our site, Nick Iffin and crew. The Jets are number

372
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 1: thirty two with a bullet. They're by far the least

373
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 1: lucky team so far. It's not just the fumble stuff,

374
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 1: but it's a solid team. I don't tell you the

375
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 1: Jets are good. I'm not going to buy a Jets

376
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: playoff ticket. I just think that they're a bit underrated

377
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 1: because of the lux stuff. I do think too, that

378
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 1: they can run on Denver a little bit. Denver's linebackers

379
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 1: are not great right now. I think the second level

380
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 1: is beatable, and the Jets have shown they can do

381
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 1: some of these eight ten, twelve play drives and kind

382
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 1: of grind out the football, you know, another delightful Sunday

383
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 1: morning of just these long three yards four yards, four

384
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 1: yards type drives.

385
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,879
Speaker 3: I don't really know that bo Nicks.

386
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:38,879
Speaker 1: The way he's playing right now, it can punish this

387
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 1: Jets pass defense, even if it's pretty beatable.

388
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 3: So I'm just going with the Jets.

389
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 2: Here.

390
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 1: One trend that does go in my favor winless teams

391
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 1: from week four forward against not undefeated winning teams sixty

392
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: six forty three ats, so sixty two percent cover right there. Basically,

393
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: what that trend tells you is what you'd think by

394
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 1: the time we get a month into the season. If

395
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: you're owing something, you're of course going to be have

396
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 1: some value because nobody wants to back that team. Seven

397
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: and a half is the key here. I want the

398
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't mind the seven, but

399
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 1: I want the hook. I would only make Denver on

400
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: a neutral this much of a favorite against two teams

401
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,399
Speaker 1: and neither of them is the Jets, And let's be

402
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 1: a hero. Let's have some fun on Sunday morning. How

403
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 1: about a nibble on the money line plus three twenty

404
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 1: take us home Jets justin Fielis, go do the thing.

405
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 3: He's pretty good against man coverage, so might workout.

406
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. I would say the winless trend would probably be

407
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,360
Speaker 2: the one you would point to when you talk about

408
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 2: the Jets, like, it's got to happen at some point. Also,

409
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 2: the fact their defense has enforced a turnover all year,

410
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,439
Speaker 2: something's got to give at that point. I'll also say this,

411
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 2: Jets averaging nineteen points per game at oh to five.

412
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 2: I mean, just looking at this season, teams to score

413
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 2: nineteen plus are winning sixty four percent of games like that,

414
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: that seems ridiculous. And then I'll give you one more.

415
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 2: Jets have scored one hundred and twelve points on offense

416
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 2: and are zero to five. Only the twenty twenty Falcons

417
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 2: have scored more points with no wins through five weeks.

418
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: So again, don't look up the twenty twenty Falcons who

419
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 2: finished four and twelve. Just believe, just believe, that it's

420
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky that they're at this point. And

421
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: I'll say this as well, you're gonna need every single

422
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 2: damn point, So seven and a half if it gets

423
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: to it, like wherever it goes, get as many points

424
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 2: as you can because it's still the Jets. Let's keep

425
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: rolling here. Sunday night football. You are looking at Detroit

426
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: and Kansas City. This one is just going to be special.

427
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,640
Speaker 2: So I just I'm curious how you're looking at this game,

428
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 2: because I think it's the same way I would look

429
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 2: at it. Because the side scare me.

430
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: The side scaring me. I really wanted Lions here. I

431
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: looked at it hard early in the week. You get

432
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Short week, I have a letdown loss. There's

433
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 1: the obvious, like, well, they can't fall to two and

434
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: four and the Homes and the Chiefs. Of course, I

435
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: want to fade that.

436
00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: To me.

437
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: The Lions set up the way that we have dreamed

438
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 1: about the Ravens and the Chiefs over the years. Run

439
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: the ball, smash mouth, control the clock, don't make mistakes,

440
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 1: and Detroit actually does it, unlike Baltimore, who does other

441
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 1: crap when they play them. The problem is, well, I'll

442
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 1: get to the problem with Detroit in a second. So

443
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna take the side. I'll explain why I'm

444
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 1: gonna do the mean thing here, and I'm gonna rain

445
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: on our Sunday Night parade, and I'll go with the

446
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: under under fifty three, and that one is rising.

447
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 3: So we'll talk about that in a second.

448
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: So Detroit, the Lions start out owing to one, they

449
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 1: get dominated by the Packers. I'm feeling great because I

450
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 1: was all team Ben Johnson's gone. The Lions are not

451
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 1: gonna be good this year. They're gonna be average. And

452
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: now since then four to oh and they're cruising and

453
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 1: they're suddenly like the Super Bowl favor for some people.

454
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 3: But who have you beat? Detroit?

455
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 1: You beat the Bears, all right, well, l for me,

456
00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: you beat the Ravens, But what's that mean anymore? Even

457
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: having been this badly exposed since then? Is that really

458
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 1: as good as it looked? And then you beat Joe

459
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: Flacco's old team and Joe Flacco's a new team. Congratulations, Like,

460
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: I don't really know that we've learned a ton. And

461
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: what really worries me with Detroit is the injuries. Taylor

462
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: Decker left tackle. Their line is not playing as well

463
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 1: as it has in previous years. We knew that they

464
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,239
Speaker 1: lost some guys. The young guys haven't been quite as

465
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 1: good as hoped. And then at corner Karon Arnold and

466
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 1: dj A Reid a out. Both of their two starting

467
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: corners are missing. And so I think how this game

468
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: sets up and why, like the under is, we're gonna

469
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: get again long drives. I think from both teams. I

470
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: think Detroit will move the ball and get some points.

471
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs will. Look, we know these teams

472
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: are gonna score, but could we get to halftime and

473
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 1: it's like, oh man, we only had like five possessions,

474
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:54,479
Speaker 1: six possessions so far where we get long running drives.

475
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: And with the Chiefs, their runs have been better in

476
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks and the short pass game

477
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: is back, and that's kind of their version of running anyway,

478
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: not really with the explosives yet from Kansas City, but

479
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: they are moving the ball. I don't mind you moving

480
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 1: the ball. Move the ball all you want, settle for

481
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 1: a field goal every now and then, and if you're

482
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: tuning up the clock, I think we can still go

483
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: under here. And really, this is a trends play all

484
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: the way for me. So here are the trends I'm

485
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: looking at since twenty seventeen, totals over fifty two that

486
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: rose more than a point fifty nine percent to the

487
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: under Jared Goff. When the totals fifty one or higher,

488
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the under, that's most profitable. Active

489
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 1: quarterback mahomes home unders sixty two percent, primetime unders outside

490
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: of Thursday sixty one percent since twenty nineteen. And it

491
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 1: looks windy here also windy unders the last four year

492
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 1: sixty one percent, and then just a little chef's kiss

493
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: at the end, we got ourselves a luck under here

494
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 1: as well. So it's going to be uncomfortable. We want

495
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 1: this to be a fun game. We know they can

496
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: score either team on any play.

497
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 3: But under fifty three.

498
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: And I mentioned the number, this was forty eight and

499
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 1: a half Sunday morning. That is a huge amount of

500
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: movement from Sunday morning to the night, and it's just

501
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: been slowly building since then. I'm gonna go ahead and

502
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: bet the fifty three it could go up from here.

503
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 1: Fifty four is kind of a key number. So if

504
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: you think it gets to fifty four.

505
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: And a half.

506
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 1: You've gained value by waiting, but we're kind of in

507
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: no man's land now. Fifty four fifty one, those are

508
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: the numbers that really matter more in that range. Maybe

509
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 1: you get a fifty three and a half. I think

510
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 1: there's more likely this goes back the other direction, and

511
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: it's already moved so much this direction that I can't

512
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 1: really imagine how much further it can get.

513
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the under our rain on the parade.

514
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: Hopefully we get like.

515
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: A fun twenty six twenty five game down to the

516
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,880
Speaker 1: layer and we still hit her under along the way.

517
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 1: So chiefs lines under fifty three.

518
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 2: One question on the line. So if you think if

519
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 2: it gets to like fifty four fifty four and a half,

520
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 2: you can add more.

521
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: If it gets to fifty four and half, I'll probably

522
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: add more because that's really the last key number on

523
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: the way up. I really have a hard time seeing

524
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: it get there. But yeah, as you're listening to this,

525
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 1: I don't mind if you want to wait and watch.

526
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 1: If if you wait and it gets to fifty two

527
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: and a half for fifty two, I don't believe you've

528
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 1: lost a whole lot there, But that should be your signal,

529
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: stop waiting and make the bet now. Don't let it

530
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: get to fifty one. So I don't mind you waiting

531
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: a little, but it's kind of just stuck in that

532
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: range right there where you know, again, who knows the

533
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: way things go these days? You go for two Campbell,

534
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: we know he's gonna do weird stuff in there. So

535
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 1: of course, in a game with this so many points

536
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 1: and this much offense, you'll take every point you can get.

537
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 1: But based on what we know about key numbers, less

538
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 1: for totals, of course, but I think we're kind of

539
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: in a range where it probably shouldn't matter a ton

540
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 1: at this point.

541
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, look ahead was forty eight and a half, and

542
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,719
Speaker 2: that's obviously before the line even comes out, basically what

543
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: you rejected it before, before the week even starts. And

544
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: you mentioned this before, but worth noting. Since twenty twenty two,

545
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 2: mahomes Is made eight home starts with a total of

546
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 2: fifty plus seven and one to the under under by

547
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: seven point eight points per game. So this one just

548
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: feels like they're split, you know, plastering a fifty plus

549
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: because of the two teams. And then they meet and

550
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 2: you find, you know, a lot of running Detroit's pace

551
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 2: should help your total as well. So I like it.

552
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,199
Speaker 1: You get you get a lot of like both teams

553
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 1: look over at the other sideline and they're like, man,

554
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 1: I want that offense getting back on the field. What

555
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: if we just run like a fifteen play drive right

556
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: now and slowly chew up the clock, and you kind

557
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: of get like both teams just saying, what if I

558
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: just hope my guy has the ball last and we'll

559
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: try to go get the score and a win. But

560
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: if we can keep their offense off the field, we're

561
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,479
Speaker 1: gonna be better off. And so I think you can

562
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 1: kind of say, oh my gosh, these two offenses, how

563
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 1: can I bet against them? But don't forget they know

564
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: each other also, So I think that's what I'm hoping

565
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: for here.

566
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this feels like a Montgomery Hunt type game where

567
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 2: I might look at them just battering ram lots of clock.

568
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: So at least that's what we hope for. All Right,

569
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 2: one more under before we get to our lightning round.

570
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 2: You're looking at Arizona and Indy right now, where I

571
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 2: think there's question marks about Kyler, So does that have

572
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 2: anything to do with the bet?

573
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: It does, but actually was looking at this one before,

574
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: so give me the under forty seven and a half.

575
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 1: The Kyler injury might make this number drop a little bit,

576
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: so obviously grab the best number you can. So both

577
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: teams here started out surprise, two to zero teams. A

578
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: lot has happened since then. The Cardinals are oho to three,

579
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 1: but they've had all five one score games so far.

580
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: The Colts are still running it out, but they're running

581
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: up the offense against the Dolphins, the Titans, the Raiders.

582
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: The Cardinals are not those teams. The Cardinals defense has

583
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: been quite good this season. They add a lot of

584
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: talent in the off season, their top ten against the

585
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: run and the pass. Colts defense has also been a

586
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: lot improved this season. They bringing lou and a Rumo

587
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: that's been a huge swing for them. I don't know

588
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: that their top five overall like their metrics say, but

589
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: certainly they've been good their stout upfront, and really Kyler

590
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: or not. The Cardinals offense I think is the weak

591
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: link in this matchup. They have not been good this season.

592
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: The offense we thought would be good and you're hearing

593
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: us finally allowed to talk about Clayton Adams, the guy

594
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: that was the run coordinator in Arizona and now is

595
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: in Dallas. And if you look at it, Dallas, who

596
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: nobody had any thoughts about Javonte Williams. All their linemen

597
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: are hurt. They're the number one success rate rushing team,

598
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: and the Cardinals, who had been that for a couple

599
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: of years, are dead last. That is what's happened in

600
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 1: this offense. And of course their running backs are hurt

601
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 1: as well. It turns out they do matter a little

602
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: bit if you lose all of them. So I think

603
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: that the Cardinals, I think colts seven, seven and a half.

604
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: That feels rich. I'd put this closer to four or five.

605
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,959
Speaker 1: And what's weird is I think those extra couple points

606
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: that are missing there. I don't want to play Arizona.

607
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: I don't really need an Arizona in my life, but

608
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: I think they're being built into the total. And I

609
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: think that's why the total is a couple of points

610
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: too high to kind of match up with that spread.

611
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,479
Speaker 1: So I looked at this matchum and thought, Okay, what

612
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: do I do. I don't really want Arizona. I kind

613
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: of want to do like a Marvin Harrison junior prop right,

614
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: like he's going to Indianapolis, and he's been all the

615
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: narrative this year, but I couldn't quite find one there.

616
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: I don't mind looking you find something fun. Cardinals this season,

617
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: their games are averaging under forty points a game thirty

618
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: nine point eight. They had one game at forty nine.

619
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: The other four are below this number, and in an

620
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: Arizona game, no team has gone above twenty seven points

621
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: yet either side in any Cardinals game. Kyler road unders

622
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: have better thing sixty eight percent. So if Jonathan gannon

623
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: road unders, obviously those are pretty much the same stat

624
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent, and Daniel Jones home unders seventy percent,

625
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: including obviously he's on a new team. But two and

626
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: one so far this year to the under, even with

627
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: the Colts offense to it doing so well. So you

628
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: asked the top, what about Kyler not practicing as we're recording?

629
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 3: So what would that mean? Well, it would means Jacoby Brissett,

630
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 3: who's one of the better backups.

631
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: But certainly a name that's gonna make me think, huh,

632
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 1: that sounds like an under to me, So certainly I

633
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: don't mind Kyler.

634
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 3: Forty seven is a pretty.

635
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: Important number for totals, So I certainly want forty seven

636
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: and a half if I can get it. That was

637
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: part of the pick here to stay above.

638
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 3: The key number. I would not be betting this below

639
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 3: the forty seven.

640
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: I kind of, sort of weirdly might prefer Kyler to

641
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: be marked in if it means the line goes back

642
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: above that. If it's the weekend and you're looking to

643
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: figure out should I bet this now? So I want

644
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 1: that hook above the forty seven if you can, so

645
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 1: keep an eye out on the Kyler news. I kind

646
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: of think he's gonna end up playing, but this is

647
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: sort of a Cardinals fade either way, and spoiler will

648
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: not be our last Cardinals fad of the podcast.

649
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: I think the interesting thing about the line is this,

650
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: the Kyler news is out there. If he plays, I

651
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 2: don't know if the line will go back up because

652
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 2: we're just gonna assume he plays anyway, like it's not

653
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 2: an injury, where like people are assuming he's not gonna play,

654
00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: So I don't know if you'll see the bump when

655
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 2: he's announced active if he plays, if that makes any sense.

656
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 2: So I think getting the forty seven and a half

657
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: now is probably more important, So I would definitely look

658
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 2: for that number you mentioned the Daniel Jones home unders

659
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: at twenty six, eleven and one. I think the most

660
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 2: important thing with that is two and one with Indy,

661
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: and in the two home unders with Indy, opponents scored

662
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 2: six and eight points. So in this scenario, you really

663
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: are rooting probably against Arizona's defense, I mean Arizona's offense

664
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: a little bit. In the bet itself, I'll give you

665
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 2: this one, and this is through bet Labs, but I

666
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: looked up when two Dome teams play each other, which

667
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 2: I will call Arizona and any team in that scenario

668
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 2: twenty seven and eleven to the under last two seasons,

669
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: which would be very contrariant to what you would think

670
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: even fifty five percent since twenty twenty. So in that sense,

671
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: I think the play is a little inflated. So I

672
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: get what you're coming for. But it's gonna be tight.

673
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: It's gonna be close, all right, Lightning round time, lightning round.

674
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: He's gonna be four props, and you know, because it's

675
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson, some escalators along with it. So let's start

676
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 2: with two Patriots. What are you doing in those games?

677
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, Patriots at Saints. We're going on the passing game here,

678
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: and I like both of these. So first one, Drake May.

679
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: We just watched Sunday night the Drake Man Veiling. Give

680
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: me Drake over one and a half passing touchdowns minus

681
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: one oh five. So Patriots are one of the few

682
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: things I actually got right last week. So let's go

683
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: back to more Patriots this week. I thought May it

684
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: was awesome in that game. He actually didn't get a touchdown,

685
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: but his main plays off script. He's creative, he's keeping

686
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: plays alive. That play first play in the final drive

687
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: when he's like getting sacked, keeps it alive, gets the

688
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: stiff arm out, stays up to throw it away, and

689
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: then instead hits Stefon Diggs for the big game and

690
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: kend of kicks off the field goal the winning field

691
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: goal drive.

692
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: That was awesome.

693
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: I'm not even matched in and played just as well

694
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: as Josh Allen. And that's really been the story of

695
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: the Patriots so far. That offense, the passing offense particularly

696
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: is what's surprising. And Stefan Diggs emerging as a true

697
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: wide receiver one which we will get.

698
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 3: Back to him in a second.

699
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 1: So I looked at Patriots here, the Saints are three

700
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. A lot of people are

701
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,720
Speaker 1: on the Saints this week. I feel like we're maybe

702
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: over correcting a little bit. Spencer Rally, I do think

703
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: has been fine, but the Saints defense has not been great.

704
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna stay away from a side by saying

705
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 1: if I if I want the Patriots, it's because I

706
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: think they're gonna pass. So let me just invest in

707
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: the passing game directly. Saints defense fourth worst in the

708
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: league by DVA and fourth worst against the pass. All

709
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: five Saints games, they've allowed at least two passing touchdowns

710
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: to the opposing quarterback.

711
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 3: So I saw that and I was like done and done.

712
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: Over one and a half, it's gotta be like minus

713
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: one sixty, right, No, it's basically even odds here. Drake

714
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 1: May two touchdowns and three of five games this season,

715
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 1: so not a perfect hit right there, like Saints opponents,

716
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 1: but that's the way up from last year four of

717
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: eleven in his game, so I think touchdowns will be there.

718
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 1: I'm not going to go escalator on Drake May. He's

719
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 1: only had a one game in his career with more

720
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: than two passing touchdowns, just over one and a half

721
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 1: and we'll escalate with our second Patriots play in a second.

722
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 2: I like it. I mean two plus touchdowns allowed, two

723
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: plus passing touchdowns on in eight of nine. Going back

724
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 2: to last year for New Orleans and thinking about what

725
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 2: he did in Buffalo last week, and he didn't throw

726
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: a passing touchdown, feels like it's a bit of a

727
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 2: correction based off of what we saw. I also say

728
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: this about New Orleans' defense last year, middle of the pack,

729
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: fifteenth in red zone percentage on defense fifty five percent.

730
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 2: This year seventy percent, twenty seventh. So something is awry

731
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 2: in that defense, and it's allowing more touchdowns. And I

732
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 2: think this might be minor. But no, Gibson, you've taken

733
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 2: a running back away. Maybe there's a little bit more

734
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: passing on the other side. So what's your other prop

735
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 2: in the game.

736
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I mentioned Stefan Diggs. Let's take the Stefan

737
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: Diggs escalator, kind of. I didn't take the escalator last

738
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 1: week with him. We mentioned him in the Patriots pick.

739
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 1: You can't hit everything, but give me the receiving yards

740
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: over fifty seven and a half still at one book,

741
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: a few others around sixty. I'll take that if we

742
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: need to, a lot of frustrated fantasy owners kind of

743
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 1: wrote Digs off slow start right weeks one through three,

744
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:22,959
Speaker 1: Digs averages four point three catches, thirty seven yards, five targets, like, oh,

745
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: he's washed, he's cooked, he's done. This was always the

746
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: expectation with him towards ACL. You don't just come back

747
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: and be your old self. All the Twitter doctors and

748
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: some of whom are worth trusting out there if you

749
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 1: follow the right ones. Ten kind of predicted it'll be

750
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: like a four week ramp up as you're kind of

751
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 1: getting back to full speed for Digs. All right, Well,

752
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 1: what happened in Week four? Six catches one hundred and

753
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 1: one yards. Then last week ten catches one hundred and

754
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: forty six yards, twelve targets in that Bills game. So

755
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 1: from weeks one to three to four and five, double

756
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: the targets, double the receptions, three point three x on

757
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: the yardage. Remember in week one Kayshawn Booty six catches

758
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: for one hundred yards. That's forever ago, Like Diggs is

759
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 1: the dude in this offense. And again, Saints defense against

760
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: the pass has not been good, particularly against wide receiver

761
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 1: one this season. Here's what they've allowed to wide receiver one.

762
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: Five catches for seventy one, five for eighty nine, five

763
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 1: for ninety six, five for sixty nine. All right, so

764
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: five catches in all of them average eighty one yards

765
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: a game. No huge numbers in there, but certainly more

766
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 1: than fifty seven and a half by quite a bit

767
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 1: last year. If you count games I'm going to consider

768
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: a team with the wide receiver one. There's thirteen of

769
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: those games. Last year the Saints allowed six point six

770
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 1: catches for ninety two yards a game on ten targets

771
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 1: to wide receiver one. So Diggs, I think, is that dude?

772
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: Fifty seven and a half five thing honestly is like

773
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: at least ten yards too low. Since the start of

774
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 1: last season, if you count games with the wide receiver one,

775
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 1: the Saints have allowed at least five catches and sixty

776
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: one yards in sixteen of seventeen of those games. Wow,

777
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: this is a great play here, and I want yards

778
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: not receptions. I think we'll get both. But Diggs had

779
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: a thirty plus catch each the last two games, so

780
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 1: we want the big play in there. We can hit

781
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: this even we only like three touches with one big

782
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: play and then here's the escalator on digs eighty yards

783
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 1: and one hundred yards. Eighty yards is plus two twenty

784
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: nine at DraftKings. Last two years, Saints have allowed that

785
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: in sixty five percent of their games against wide receiver

786
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: and almost two of three and then one hundred yards.

787
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 1: None yet against the Saints, but Diggs has done that

788
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row, and the Saints allowed for

789
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: those last year two wide receiver ones. One hundred yards

790
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: is plus four to seventy seven at DraftKings. So digs

791
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: over fifty seven and a half and an escalator all

792
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,439
Speaker 1: the way two one hundred and hopefully has another huge game.

793
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to know how important Diggs

794
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: has been to the offense the last two weeks, he

795
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 2: has twelve first read slash design targets, seven more than

796
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 2: any other Patriot at that time. So at this point

797
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: they are looking for him. And the thing that you

798
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: have to love about those two big games and the

799
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 2: stat I just gave you still only running routes on

800
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of dropbacks over the last two weeks.

801
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: So there's even more upside. I think as he progresses

802
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 2: and gets healthier, so I like it anything else before

803
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 2: we keep rolling.

804
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually I was like, oh, let's see, I

805
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: bet snap counts are going out. He's healthy, so he's

806
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: playing more. He's really not like the snaps, He's still like.

807
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 3: Half of them.

808
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: So I agree there's more room for him to play

809
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 1: even more and get even more looks going AHD. So

810
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 1: I think he's going to be very good. I think

811
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 1: he's still a little bit underrated in fantasy. I see

812
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: him ranked to like thirtieth to fortieth rest of season

813
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: out there. I'd be looking for ways to get him

814
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 1: in a fantasy league or to invest if you got

815
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: a season long prop or something like that.

816
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:46,959
Speaker 3: I think Diggs is almost all the way back now.

817
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned the ramp up as well. I feel

818
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: like I don't have stats behind this, but I feel

819
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 2: like the yak last week was also there. So he

820
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: is not only catching, not only getting looks, but running

821
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: after the catch, which is important for these props. All right,

822
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 2: next bet here we're looking at Raiders and Titans. Boy,

823
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: this one better be fun.

824
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, because the game sures heck won't be. I honestly

825
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: thought early in the week I was gonna have to

826
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: come in here with Titans plus six, and I was like,

827
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: please don't make me do this, Please don't. The Raiders

828
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: should not be six points favorites against anybody, even the Titans. Thankfully,

829
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: the market got back ahead of me, and I'm sure

830
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: people are betting the Titans as well for the same reason.

831
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: It's like three and a half, four and a half,

832
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: now forget it. But if the Raiders are favored, somebody's

833
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 1: gonna have to score for them. How about Ashton gent

834
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,280
Speaker 1: So give me an ash and genty touchdown. It's minus

835
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: one forty three. The Titans defense has not been good.

836
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 1: Of course, They're not good at anything, so why would

837
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: they be good at defense? Bottom cored of the league,

838
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 1: defense second the worst by dv Away run defense, top

839
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: three rushing yards allowed to running back so far and

840
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 1: eight rushing touchdowns most in the NFL. Should be nine,

841
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: of course, if mister de Marcado could hold on on

842
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 1: the ball at the goal line. But they have allowed

843
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 1: at least one running back touchdown all five Titans games.

844
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: They've allowed multiple running back touchdowns in three straight games

845
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 1: right now, so I was like, Okay, this looks like

846
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: a good spot for genty rushing yards. The line seventy

847
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: two and a half. I can't get there. He's under

848
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 1: that four to five games. That offensive line has not

849
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: been great for the Raiders. Colton Miller is out. He

850
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: is right now on pace for two hundred and eighty carries.

851
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 1: That's a lot twelve hundred yards. That's not great for

852
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: that mini, so I'm gonna stay away from the yards.

853
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 1: He's second favorite for offense or Rookie of the Year.

854
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: I don't see that. That's not happening with how he's

855
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: playing right now. But he is finding the end zone.

856
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: Raiders out eight offensive touchdowns. He's got four of them,

857
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: two rushing and two receiving. I don't really care how

858
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 1: he gets in. He can do the stupid Cardinals play

859
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 1: from last week. Everyone can fumble and kick the ball

860
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 1: in the end zone. Jendi can fall on the ball

861
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 1: and gave me a touchdown either way. Geny touchdown minus

862
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: one forty three and a little bit on two touchdowns

863
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 1: as well, Ken, I always play that if you're gonna

864
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 1: do a one touchdown, that's plus four third and again,

865
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 1: the Titans have allowed three straight games a running back

866
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 1: to get two touchdowns, So I think that's a smart

867
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:06,959
Speaker 1: escalator on that as well.

868
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 2: I was curious about the Titans rush defense, which is

869
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 2: absolutely horrible, and you mentioned the rush touchdown statistic on

870
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: that side of the ball. I found this one which

871
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 2: was more interesting to me. Stacked box yards per attempt

872
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,479
Speaker 2: on the ground, So basically, when the defense really tries

873
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 2: to stop the run, Tennessee this year allowing six yards

874
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 2: per attempt, third worse in the NFL. When they stacked

875
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 2: the box last year three point three, fourth best in

876
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 2: the NFL. So to me, even when they're trying to

877
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 2: stop him, it ain't gonna work. They're definitely going to

878
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 2: try to because moster it's not the guy. He's not

879
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 2: getting a ton of carries in this offense. To me,

880
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: it's Genty. He has all five carries inside the ten

881
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 2: yard line for the Raiders. This is if they're going

882
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 2: to score touchdowns, which they only scored six points last week.

883
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 2: So the bet is will they score a touchdown, It's

884
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 2: gonna be Ashon Genty. So I like it, all right,

885
00:42:58,920 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: one more prop here?

886
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 3: What do you got one more touchdown?

887
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 1: We've been talking about Tet mcmill and a rookie receiver

888
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 1: for the Panthers, so let's get a tep McMillan touchdown

889
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: plus one fifty against the Cowboys. I thought for a

890
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,240
Speaker 1: second story week I would try to turn myself into

891
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: a short road favorite Cowboys team. I think they're going

892
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 1: to score, but I think the Panthers might score too.

893
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: This total is forty nine and a half. I think

894
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 1: this could be in the running for top scoring game

895
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: of the week, if you like to play that angle

896
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: out there. But I think both teams are going to

897
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 1: be scoring. Both teams will be passing at will here.

898
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: I think we might finally get that long away to

899
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 1: TEP McMillan breakout game. Cowboys defense, I don't even need

900
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 1: to give you any of the numbers. Like they cannot

901
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: stop a nosebleed this season, it's all terrible. Passing defense

902
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 1: is at no shot. Here are wide receiver one numbers

903
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 1: against Dallas just this year, Malik Nighbors. Remember that game

904
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: nine FO one hundred and sixty seven two scores a

905
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: Duneesay sixty two yards in a score Romeo Dobbs six

906
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: for fifty eight three touchdowns.

907
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 3: We all watched that one.

908
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 1: Then Garrett Wilson last week, they didn't like to pass

909
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: sixty seven or seventy one yards and a score, so

910
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 1: all four of those dudes had a touchdown. Neighbors scored twice,

911
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: Dobbs scored three times. Last year, over half of the

912
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: games that the Cowboys played had a wide receiver one touchdown.

913
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: This year four to five, everyone except the Eagles because

914
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: they don't believe in passing anymore. So I think this

915
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: is a touchdown game for McMillan. I looked at the

916
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 1: receptions and the yards early in the week.

917
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:24,439
Speaker 3: Those lines were better.

918
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 1: I think others are also looking at McMillan, so those

919
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: have been met up this week. I'm just gonna stick

920
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: with a touchdown plus one fifty four touchdown and what

921
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: should be a shootout. We might get like eight ten

922
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: touchdowns in this game if this really goes well, and

923
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 1: then two touchdowns here as well, plus twelve hundred on

924
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,959
Speaker 1: the escalator, So I think you gotta take a little

925
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 1: bit nibble on that one and the escalator. I said

926
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 1: on Sunday, I wanted to find this is the spot

927
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 1: I think to buy that Rookie of the Year ticket

928
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: thirteen to one at one book.

929
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 3: Here's the setup. Aguaca is the.

930
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: Clear favorite and probably gonna have another good game this weekend.

931
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 1: It's maybe just him. I went there with oh Marion

932
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: Hampton a couple of weeks ago, loved it, And now

933
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: he's spraining his ankle and he's out, so his odds

934
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: have dropped. Jackson Dart is third in odds. Come on,

935
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 1: they didn't even play the first couple of weeks. The

936
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 1: Jarans are gonna keep doing the thing all year. It's

937
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 1: not happening. Genty is second in odds. Like if it's

938
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: not Eggbuca, this is still pretty open. And I think

939
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 1: McMillan honestly has been as good, maybe better than Mecca.

940
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,800
Speaker 1: So I think thirteen to one, you won him before

941
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: the Dallas game, not afterwards, So I think it's an

942
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: hour never And uh look, this might be like my

943
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 1: sixth or seventh Rookie of the Year pick, So I

944
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 1: think I probably ought to be done after this, stop

945
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: me before I bet the market again.

946
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 3: But I think he can be in play. And I'm

947
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 3: reminded a.

948
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 1: Couple of weeks ago we took the Puka Escalater all

949
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 1: the way up and I looked at Offensive Player of

950
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: the Year and I was like, man, if he has

951
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 1: a huge game, when do you be in there? And

952
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: I didn't do it, and I didn't say it, and

953
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:51,760
Speaker 1: I don't get credit for it. And the next morning

954
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 1: he was like the cold favorite, and that's where he

955
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: sits now. So this is me Maya coping for that.

956
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: And if I'm if I got a guy in an

957
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 1: awards market and I like a big game and a breakout,

958
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 1: then I think it's the chance to buy into the

959
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: market as well. So plus one fifty on a touchdown,

960
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: twelve to one for two scores, thirteen to one for

961
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year on TET.

962
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 2: McMillan, some of the simplest correlation when you talk about

963
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 2: touchdowns and points as you look at the over under

964
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 2: you talked about it forty nine and a half for

965
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 2: this one, which would be the highest total of Bryce

966
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 2: Young's NFL career so far, So kind of tells you

967
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 2: what we're expecting. And first, just for some perspective, believe

968
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 2: TET right now has a third highest receiving yards prop

969
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: of the week behind Pooka and JSN, which just tells

970
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 2: you what the matchup looks like a Kent's Dallas and

971
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 2: I found this one absolutely fascinating. So first three weeks

972
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 2: of the season, TET was running around on ninety one

973
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: about ninety one percent routes thirty first in the NFL

974
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 2: fourth and fifth week four and five up to ninety

975
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: eight point six second in the NFL. This man is

976
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 2: Bryce's number one thirty three first yard, first read targets.

977
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: Next closest is renfro with fifteen. So this is this

978
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 2: is the guy, and he's going to force it there

979
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: whenever he can. So I like the bet, and the

980
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: yards are too high, so I don't even think you

981
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 2: can go down that route, which is why I gave

982
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 2: you the perspective. Look ahead time, let's talk ahead, skim

983
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 2: a shot. How about next week?

984
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 3: I got my mindset, Look up my mindset.

985
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:27,439
Speaker 2: What are you looking at a week seven?

986
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I told you we'd come back to the Cardinals.

987
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: Here we are, and we certainly are not taking the Cardinals.

988
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 1: Give me the Packers MIAs four and a half in Arizona.

989
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 1: So pretty simple read here. Look at this weekend. The

990
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 1: Packers are two touchdown favorites off the buy at home

991
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 1: against Joe Flacco and the Bengals. Everyone expects the Packers

992
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 1: to absolutely roll this week and everyone will be like, oh, yeah,

993
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 1: of course, we forgot about the Packers, Micah Parsons, Remember

994
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 1: how they're great and Super Bowl favorite. That's what we're

995
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: gonna think about the Packers this weekend. The Cardinals we

996
00:47:56,200 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 1: talked about. They're touchdown underdogs in Danapolis, so they're expected

997
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: to lose if this thing goes as expected. There's no

998
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: way we're opening this at four and a half on

999
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 1: Sunday night. We're gonna be at like six, maybe pushing

1000
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: seven immediately. Remember seven is the key number, but five

1001
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:13,399
Speaker 1: and six are kind of keys now as well. We're

1002
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: getting four and a half here below all three of those,

1003
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: I make this seven. I think these are just different

1004
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: weight classes. And I make the seven with Kyler Murray.

1005
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:24,280
Speaker 3: Do we even get Kyler Murray in this game?

1006
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 1: Maybe he plays against Indy but Reinjurres Dankele and then

1007
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,399
Speaker 1: he's out. Maybe it's worse than we think and he's

1008
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 1: just out until then, so we might get Jacobe Brissett

1009
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 1: here as well. We talked about the Arizona defense or sorry,

1010
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,720
Speaker 1: Arizona offense not being good. May introduce you to Micah

1011
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,760
Speaker 1: Parsons and the Packers' defense that has played so well this season.

1012
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 1: So I just can't see a world where we are

1013
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,240
Speaker 1: getting Packers minus four and a half Sunday night, barring

1014
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 1: some catastrophic injuries.

1015
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: So we've had some bad luck.

1016
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 1: On injuries on the look ahead, but I'm gonna take

1017
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: the four and a half in Green Bay and not

1018
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 1: look back here.

1019
00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 2: I just am not gonna sit here and try to

1020
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 2: argue with someone trying to take a look ahead line

1021
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 2: off of game where you're a fourteen point favorite. Feels

1022
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 2: like it makes sense and it's the right move in

1023
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 2: the right direction, because if it goes the direction everyone

1024
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 2: thinks next week's line has got to be bigger. All right,

1025
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 2: thank you, Brandon, that was great. Anything else before we

1026
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 2: get out.

1027
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 3: Of here, I think that's it. Let's watch some football,

1028
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 3: all right.

1029
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 2: That'll do it. Here on the Action Every Podcast for

1030
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 2: our NFL weeks, it's sixth Best Bets episode, presented by DraftKings.

1031
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:26,160
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1032
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1034
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Speaker 2: a great new feature. If you see a bet from

1036
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Speaker 2: any of our favorite action experts, or anyone on gambling Twitter.

1037
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Speaker 2: You can now tag at playbook and tell your bot

1038
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1040
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1041
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Speaker 2: sports book. So check it out at Playbook on Twitter

1042
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Speaker 2: and again if you want to tell some of the

1043
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 2: bets we gave out today, make sure to look for

1044
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 2: the quick slip link in the podcast and video description

1045
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:01,760
Speaker 2: or go to Action WeWork dot com slash bet Now.

1046
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,840
Speaker 2: We will be back Sunday night for our NFL recap

1047
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 2: show that'll be live on Action Networks YouTube page shortly

1048
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 2: after Chiefs and Lions on Sunday Night football. Thank you

1049
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 2: for listening, enjoy this late good luck with all your

1050
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:28,920
Speaker 2: best this weekend, Let's catch your tickets.

1051
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1052
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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