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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: We are continuing our preseason run through every division in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. We are breaking down every single team what

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Speaker 1: happened to them since last season ended, Additions, subtractions, projections, prospects.

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Speaker 1: How does the seventeen game season impact their season win totals?

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Speaker 1: How does that impact their division title? How does that

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Speaker 1: impact their opportunity to win the conference, the super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, all of it. Today's subject the a f

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Speaker 1: C East Fascinating Division. I'm going to be joined as

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Speaker 1: I always am, by my bff, my compadre, my campaignier,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. That me is that time for me to go?

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Speaker 1: It's time for you to go. Let's go. Why are

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Speaker 1: you making an awkward pause? I was just waiting for

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Speaker 1: I thought you had more. You never know you, Chad,

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Speaker 1: You're you're a man of many words. Listen, when I

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Speaker 1: start riffing, I don't even, honest to god, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna say. When I started, I just go, so,

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Speaker 1: how good of a weekend did you have? Chat? Tell everyone?

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Speaker 1: How good of a weekend? Chad? Let me let me

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Speaker 1: give you even a little bit more background last week.

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Speaker 1: On Tuesday, I flew my wife and I flew to

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Speaker 1: San Francisco. We stayed there until Friday. It was just

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Speaker 1: a quick trip, but we spent uh Wednesday and Thursday

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Speaker 1: and part of Friday with my best friend in the world.

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Speaker 1: His name is Matt Rosenberg and he lives in Marin

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Speaker 1: and he's been mentioned on the show before. He's the

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Speaker 1: guy that I used to bet against every single weekend,

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Speaker 1: and then two years ago we bet every single game

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Speaker 1: for the NFL and we ended up winning quite a

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Speaker 1: bit of money. We've got fifty dollars on every game.

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Speaker 1: No matter what, we ended up winning quite a bit

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Speaker 1: of money. Um. And so he and I grew up

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Speaker 1: together in Chicago. His wife is from Boston. She's a

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Speaker 1: huge Patriots fan. We're huge Bears fans. He's got three kids,

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Speaker 1: two older boys. The oldest boy is a Bears fan,

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Speaker 1: the middle boys a Patriots fan. So, of course, on

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Speaker 1: Thursday afternoon, the Patriots had their first game. Mac Jones plays.

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Speaker 1: His middle son, who's sixteen, is going nuts about the

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Speaker 1: Patriots literally every single play. Like by halftime, we've all

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Speaker 1: checked out. We're having drinks, like hanging out, and his

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Speaker 1: son is still screaming about the rookie who's running the

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Speaker 1: kickback all the way for the touchdown right, And we're like,

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Speaker 1: what the fuss is going on? And his wife was

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Speaker 1: Matt's wife was like, all the Patriots game is still on.

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Speaker 1: We talked about Mac Jones the whole time. I'm ripping

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones. He's terrible. No one should have taken him.

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Speaker 1: He's coming back at me saying mac Jones was brilliant.

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Speaker 1: Look at the way he was calling plays, at the line,

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Speaker 1: he was changing things up. He was so accurate. Whatever,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, he's no Justin Fields. Saturday comes. It's one

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Speaker 1: o'clock here in the East Coast. Got back to my

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Speaker 1: house in Connecticut at two am Saturday morning, got up,

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Speaker 1: going about my business, doing my thing on the couch

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Speaker 1: at one o'clock, ready to watch the game. I watched

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Speaker 1: every snap. Me and my younger son watched every snap

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Speaker 1: of the Bears preseason game. My text to my buddy

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Speaker 1: Matt as I was watching the game, Justin Field will

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Speaker 1: go down. Don't shake your head at me. Don't shake

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Speaker 1: your head at me. Justin Fields will go down as

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Speaker 1: the most consequential draft pick in my lifetime. As a

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Speaker 1: Bears fan. I'm fifty years old. The Bears in my

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Speaker 1: lifetime have drafted six Hall of famers Walter Payton, Dan Hampton,

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Speaker 1: Richard Dent, Jimbo Covert, Brian or Locker, Mike Singletary. Justin

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Speaker 1: Fields will matter more to this franchise than any of

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Speaker 1: those players. I'm telling you right now. He was fucking brilliant.

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Speaker 1: He was brilliant. He will like Sid Luckman, the Sid

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Speaker 1: Luckman bobble head that I am holding right now. He's

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Speaker 1: shaking his head because he is so proud of the

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Speaker 1: way Justin Fields played. Bear down, Dad. Do you want

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Speaker 1: the truth? You just want to live in your own

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Speaker 1: little world. Wow, to me, there is no separation. Um.

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Speaker 1: I hate being that guy, but yeah, none of this matters.

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Speaker 1: Of course, it looks great. I'm happy for all these

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks, but it's also irrelevant. I mean, Bears fans

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Speaker 1: of everyone should know how you're relevant. This is literally

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Speaker 1: Mitch Robinski took you guys to the playoffs back to

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Speaker 1: back years and he's gone, I'm my guy sitting here

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Speaker 1: with Carson Wentz. Guy got us to the super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: got us to the number one seed in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: He's not on my team anymore. So it's one of

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Speaker 1: these where I tried to shoot on people all the excitement.

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Speaker 1: But of all these five quarterbacks, I would say the

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Speaker 1: only one I saw that I would be like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: they might actually have something here. Crazy to say, because

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Speaker 1: I don't believe in the kid either, was Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 1: He had a bunch of throws where I was like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's a legit NFL arm. Nothing against fields. I love

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Speaker 1: fields too, But when he said things kind of slowed

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Speaker 1: down out there for me, I was just like, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, please get this guy out of the league already.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, Yeah. He say things kind

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Speaker 1: of slowed down out there for me, But all he's saying.

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Speaker 1: All he's saying is that he got comfortable. The pace

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Speaker 1: sort of came back to normal. He got the jitters out.

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Speaker 1: He's not out there saying, oh yeah, now it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be easy. And every game, I'm gonna throw a couple

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Speaker 1: of touchdown pass us. I'm gonna have a hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy five combined yards. I'm gonna outrun corners to the sideline.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be able to play fake and find tight

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Speaker 1: ends wide open the goal line. He's not saying that.

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Speaker 1: He's not saying at all. All he said was in

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Speaker 1: that moment the game slowed down because he got more comfortable,

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Speaker 1: and by the way the game should slow down. He

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Speaker 1: was playing against second and third string NFL players. He

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Speaker 1: is a first There was a couple of first and

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Speaker 1: second round picks out there, though, Like, I'm not shooting

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Speaker 1: on him for that. I'm just shooting on him for

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Speaker 1: like when he's when he says these kind of things,

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Speaker 1: I don't think he understands how that's just another target

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Speaker 1: on his back now and please that is. But it's

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Speaker 1: just like from who, dude, I am so ready to

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Speaker 1: shoot on Justin Fields now for the rest of his life.

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Speaker 1: For saying that after one preseason game, playing a half

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Speaker 1: of a preseason game, I was just like, who the

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Speaker 1: fund does this kid? Thinking, Yeah, you're so taking it

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Speaker 1: out of context. Justin Fields is a beautiful person with

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Speaker 1: speed and power and arm that is as great as

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Speaker 1: his hair. And even if it doesn't happen year, he

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Speaker 1: will be doing things for the Bears over the next

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Speaker 1: decade that no quarterback has ever done in the history

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Speaker 1: of this franchise. Well, I hope he does it this year.

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Speaker 1: I bet him. I don't know if you did, but

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Speaker 1: I've been him on Rookie of the Year, so I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm in on Justin Fields. But it was just one

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Speaker 1: of those where it's like, man of all the people

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Speaker 1: getting the most hype, his hype right now is so insane.

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Speaker 1: I think his odds like split in a half for

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Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year after that, which just should have.

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Speaker 1: I mean, dude, he again, he looked great against that team.

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Speaker 1: And again people want to say it was second third

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Speaker 1: team guys, but it's like these are first and second

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Speaker 1: round draft picks that were playing for Miami and that

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Speaker 1: that second half. So I'm I'm drinking the kool aid.

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Speaker 1: But it's more in one of these where it's just like,

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Speaker 1: oh God, this is such classic preseason stuff, like what

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Speaker 1: we talked about last week, Sam Bradford through three touchdowns

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter against Green Bay for the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: All these Eagles fans like, oh, we our QB of

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Speaker 1: the future Sam Bradford. It's it's just one of these

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Speaker 1: things where it's like, Okay, people just take a step back.

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Speaker 1: It's one of these things where it's just preseason. You know, well,

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Speaker 1: for me, uh like Mac Jones arguably had a great

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Speaker 1: game against I have already forgot who they played the

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Speaker 1: other day. Um, and I was I was shipping right

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Speaker 1: washingt football team. I was shifting on Mac Jones and

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Speaker 1: trying to dunk on a sixteen year old and tell

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Speaker 1: him how bad his quarterback of the future is and

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Speaker 1: that Mac Jones is number ten because he's the tenth

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Speaker 1: worst quarterback in the draft. And um, forty eight hours later,

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Speaker 1: I am like irrational exuberance over Justin Fields. Um, so

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Speaker 1: I totally get it. I'm happy Beans. But I've never look,

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Speaker 1: like I said, I'm fifty years old. I've never had

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Speaker 1: this feeling about a Bears quarterback in the preseason ever,

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Speaker 1: I felt. I remember when a came I felt good about.

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Speaker 1: No, no no, no, no, no. First came. No no no, no, no, no.

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Speaker 1: I hate j Couler first came. I hated him when

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Speaker 1: he was in Denver. I thought, I thought, there's no

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Speaker 1: way a player like Jay Cutler ever wins, because I

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Speaker 1: do think as a quarterback, if you're super talented, you

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Speaker 1: still kind of need to lead your team. They want

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Speaker 1: to believe in you. And if you're not talented. You're

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Speaker 1: a game manager. You need to recognize that and rally

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Speaker 1: your team around you, and they have to feel like

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Speaker 1: you're confident enough that you won't get in the way.

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Speaker 1: Jay Color was an uber talent who was an uber asshole,

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Speaker 1: and like that was that was the reputation when he

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Speaker 1: was in Denver. I had so many stories about people

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Speaker 1: hating him in Denver from the community, and then so

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Speaker 1: many stories of people in Chicago hating him. Um so

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Speaker 1: I never felt good about good about Jay Culer. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's true. And again, like we talked, I sent you

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Speaker 1: the link to watch the NFL films on the Hey,

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Speaker 1: rookie Justin Fields is so likable, just such a cool dude,

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Speaker 1: so relaxed. So again I hope, I hope for the

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Speaker 1: Bears fans Chad like you, I hope you guys are right.

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Speaker 1: But it's just like, this is my favorite time of year.

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Speaker 1: It's just a never ending hype team every team you know,

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Speaker 1: going eighteen seventeen and o uh, it's just one of

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Speaker 1: these really fun time of the year where people are

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Speaker 1: just so hyped out. You mentioned we we talked about

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Speaker 1: the that we're gonna do the a f C East today, UH.

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Speaker 1: For the first sable future, this will be a Chicago

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Speaker 1: Bears podcast for the first ten to thirty five minutes,

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Speaker 1: whatever it takes. Then we'll get to the main event.

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Speaker 1: You can think of it like if you listen to

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Speaker 1: this podcast and you don't want to hear me talk

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Speaker 1: about the Chicago Bears. It can be like the Mark

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Speaker 1: Marin podcast where I only I fast forward, like the

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Speaker 1: first fifteen minutes to get through his spiel and then

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Speaker 1: get to the interview. You can do that. A f

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Speaker 1: C East fascinating division right now, happy now, happy now,

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Speaker 1: making it happy spirit, A lot of spirits spirit happen.

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Speaker 1: The Bills obviously everybody's favorite, Josh Allen new massive deal.

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Speaker 1: I mistakenly bet on them. The Patriots a lot of

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Speaker 1: people believing this is a bounce back year for them,

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Speaker 1: regardless of what happens with Cam. The Dolphins a team

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Speaker 1: that really outperformed last year, and so the big question

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Speaker 1: mark is to UH. And then the Jets, who are

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Speaker 1: perpetually rebuilding and have a brand new quarterback in Zach Wilson. Breakdown.

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Speaker 1: Before we even get to any of the odds, you know,

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Speaker 1: or season win totals, division odds, Conference astro blads breakdown

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Speaker 1: from you, who do you think improved the most, who

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Speaker 1: at the best transactions, Like whose talent got that much

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Speaker 1: better in the off season. That's so hard to say

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Speaker 1: because everyone's gonna it's like, you know, it's a loaded question,

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Speaker 1: where of course, I guess you could say that Patriots improved.

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Speaker 1: They're getting all these guys back off the COVID list,

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Speaker 1: and they spent all this morning in the off season.

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Speaker 1: I don't really love any of the moves they made,

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Speaker 1: Like they spent a ton of money on two tight ends,

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Speaker 1: which was bizarre to me in the first place. And

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Speaker 1: they've put a lot of draft capital now into a

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, which you know, I think Mac Jones is

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Speaker 1: pretty solid, but he's coming from the number one team

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Speaker 1: in college football to arguably a bottom five offense with

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. They just don't have receivers, and I don't

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Speaker 1: know we we we we can argue what we want,

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Speaker 1: but their old line is definitely gonna be improved um

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Speaker 1: from last year as well. So if we're going just

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Speaker 1: strictly off who improved the most off their team last year,

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Speaker 1: it's definitely give me the Patriots for this division. What's

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Speaker 1: most interesting for me about mac Jones, and this was

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Speaker 1: the argument I was having with my sixteen year old

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Speaker 1: friend is to me, the KPI that matters most when

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Speaker 1: judging quarterbacks is how many games did they start in

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Speaker 1: college and how many how did they perform in those games?

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Speaker 1: To me, that's always been the best barometer. And in

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence in justin fields, you've got incredible numbers to

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Speaker 1: look at and a huge data set to look at.

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones not much, Trey Lance not much, Zack Wilson

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Speaker 1: not much, and mac Jones not only that he was

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Speaker 1: doing it in a shortened season against teams that were

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Speaker 1: weakened by COVID, playing with an offense that include to

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Speaker 1: top ten wide receivers, and so how can I possibly think, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this guy really has it based on what I saw

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Speaker 1: from college football. Yeah, definitely was. Zack Wilson did play

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Speaker 1: three seasons. Like what Chad's gonna saying is he had

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Speaker 1: his first year it was like thirteen touchdowns, twelve interceptions,

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Speaker 1: like fifteen touchdowns, tenor receptions, and then he had crazy

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Speaker 1: year last year of over thirty touchdowns. So with one

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Speaker 1: of the best offensive lines in football against playing nobody right,

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Speaker 1: and so when I right, like would I go with Mac?

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Speaker 1: It's um Again. He didn't look terrible in their preseason game,

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Speaker 1: but it was like, you know, it was five yards passes.

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Speaker 1: He wasn't taking a little shots downfield. He tried to

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Speaker 1: take shots, but he didn't complete any. And it's one

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Speaker 1: of those where I, again we were going to talk

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Speaker 1: about with this division, I just can't back the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: I can't back Cam Newton because I've seen Cam can

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Speaker 1: look great in preseason. He looked good right now when

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Speaker 1: he's healthy, well we've seen it after he takes a

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Speaker 1: couple of hits and his body breaks down a little bit.

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Speaker 1: By week five and six, Cams just not gonna be reliable.

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Speaker 1: So for me, the Patriots, they've just been a cross

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Speaker 1: off team where I'm not even really factoring them into

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Speaker 1: this division at all. Right now, Wow, that that is interesting,

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Speaker 1: not even thinking about them all right, all right? Because

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Speaker 1: people people want this to be like the Patriots of

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Speaker 1: yesteryear with Tom Brady stepped in and took that team

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Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. That defense were full of Hall

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Speaker 1: of famers. The Patriots had an incredible amount of talent

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Speaker 1: on that defense. It's not the same defense this year.

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Speaker 1: It's it's definitely it's one of these things. You're p

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Speaker 1: we just need to adjust how they think about the

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Speaker 1: Patriots and the team they are. Like again, I think

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Speaker 1: Belichick is a great coach. We can talk about the

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Speaker 1: season win totals. I can see why people are taking

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Speaker 1: the over, but I just can't do it. I just

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Speaker 1: look at the talent they have and I think, man,

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Speaker 1: they are just lacking so hard on all offense. They

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Speaker 1: can have the greatest running game in the world. That's

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Speaker 1: not gonna win them games in this day and age

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Speaker 1: we've just seen the NFL has change where you get

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Speaker 1: a quarterback that can make those big throws, and I

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Speaker 1: just don't think they have that right now. You know

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Speaker 1: what's interesting? Uh, the New England Patriots odds to win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl or to win the a f C

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Speaker 1: are sixteen to one. They are a little bit lower

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Speaker 1: than the Dolphins, and the Dolphins are about sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half to one, But the Dolphins are plus three

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Speaker 1: to win the division. The Patriots are plus three fifty.

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Speaker 1: What does this mean? How do I how do I

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Speaker 1: analyze this? It's just all about that what money has

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Speaker 1: been bet on what, and it all depends on what

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Speaker 1: Sportspeak looking at. It's why like we want to name

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Speaker 1: their sports book. There's a sports book right now that

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Speaker 1: you can get to UH to have the most interceptions,

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Speaker 1: that ten to one. But then you can go to

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Speaker 1: a different sports book and it's four to one for

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Speaker 1: two to get the most interceptions. So again, it's all

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Speaker 1: about what money has been bet where. That's what's really

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Speaker 1: moving the lines right now in these different things. But

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Speaker 1: if you want, buddy, we can dive into this group

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Speaker 1: because it's it's interesting. We're looking at the bills right now.

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Speaker 1: There's still minus one fifty on FanDuel to win this

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Speaker 1: division and that really sticks out to me. I would

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Speaker 1: love to bring on Matt Mitchell here. Does that not

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Speaker 1: feel like the easiest bet to make in your life?

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Speaker 1: Then win in this division at minus one fifty. The

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Speaker 1: whole thing makes you want to puke my guts out.

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Speaker 1: But seriously, Matt, like you look at this team as

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Speaker 1: a fan, is it all of a sudden uh perfect

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Speaker 1: timing for you? Because not only is it Buffalo minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty two UH to win the an f C

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Speaker 1: East plus five fifty to win the a f C

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Speaker 1: that second after the Chiefs. And by the way, right now,

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Speaker 1: right now, the Buffalo Bills are uh plus twelve dred

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl twelve to one. The only

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Speaker 1: teams ahead of them Chiefs and the Bucks. What has

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Speaker 1: been going on with the Buffalo Bills because that that

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Speaker 1: number has changed? Like, what is going on here? Simon Man,

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Speaker 1: it's there's too many things the even process there. It's

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Speaker 1: one of these where again I hate being that guide,

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Speaker 1: Chap and this is why you hired me. I have

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Speaker 1: to be the person that just stops people's happiness, not

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Speaker 1: kind of hit them with the truth. And it's we've

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Speaker 1: seen it time and time again. Um, it's one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite things too about the NFL. So there's four

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Speaker 1: teams right every year in the conference finals, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen it. History just tells us every time all these

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Speaker 1: four teams, one of them is not even gonna make

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. So again, you can go through it. Maybe

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Speaker 1: every now and then some year all four teams do

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Speaker 1: make it, but it's just it's just the way it

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Speaker 1: works that one of these teams is gonna fall out.

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Speaker 1: So if I just give you the four teams, the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: the Bills, Tampa Bay in Green Bay. Who feels the

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Speaker 1: most likely to fall out? It feels like it's the

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Speaker 1: Bills because they're an unproven team where everything went right

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Speaker 1: last year. Josh Allen went from completing completion percentage to

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Speaker 1: above six. He went from you know, the ranked quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the NFL the top four and one season. He

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Speaker 1: made that big of a jump. So my job here

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Speaker 1: is to say what is the most likely thing and

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Speaker 1: will history keep repeating itself? And I look at this team,

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Speaker 1: there's so many parallels with them in the Eagles. The

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Speaker 1: Eagles the year they went to Super with Carson Wentz, uh,

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Speaker 1: they were the number one seed coming out. Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: had an incredible season, and we saw what happened the

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Speaker 1: following year. The NFL kind of figured out Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: a little bit. They kind of figured out the Eagles

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Speaker 1: offense a little bit. The Eagles went nine and seven

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Speaker 1: because everything wasn't as nice and easy as it was

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Speaker 1: the year before. And I think this is the same

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Speaker 1: thing we're gonna see with the Bills. The Bills kind

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Speaker 1: of steam rolled their team, like their division. Last year.

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Speaker 1: They had a couple of coin flip games. I remember

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Speaker 1: that Rams game at home. They should have lost, stand

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Speaker 1: up winning that one. It's one of these things where

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Speaker 1: a lot of things went right for the Rams last year,

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Speaker 1: I mean the Bills, and I'm been on the things

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Speaker 1: not to go right, and the fact that they're right now.

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Speaker 1: They're the top three of the highest bet total on overs.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's pounding this over. It opened up a ten and

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Speaker 1: a half. I've seen some books now at eleven, but

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Speaker 1: it's plus like one thirty plus one forty to take

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Speaker 1: the under. It's it's been hot. It's been one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest public bets so far this year. Their win tolls,

359
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Speaker 1: so I have this team great out ten point two wins.

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Speaker 1: I love the under here, especially when it's sitting at eleven.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bills are you know, I don't hate

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Speaker 1: the value on them for the division because who are

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Speaker 1: they going up against. Their quarterbacks in the division are

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Speaker 1: cam to uh and you know Zach Wilson. It's just

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Speaker 1: one of these things where they might win this division

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Speaker 1: by default. But it scares me that's only minus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: I don't get how this isn't a bigger line where uh,

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Speaker 1: I honestly thought this would be up to minus two

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Speaker 1: hunter By now just because of all the loves the

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Speaker 1: Bills are getting, so I think people need to be weird.

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Speaker 1: I think the sports books telling us something here by

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Speaker 1: leaving this line solo and taking so much money on

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Speaker 1: the Bills. Are they're saying, you know what, either they

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Speaker 1: believe in Miami or they believe in the Patriots, say

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Speaker 1: one of those two teams. The sports books are saying,

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Speaker 1: people are sleeping on these teams, and they're they're too

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Speaker 1: heavy on the Bills. Where everything once again went right

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Speaker 1: for the Bills, E Street, It's just not going to

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Speaker 1: be that way this upcoming season. I think they're telling

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Speaker 1: you they believe in the Patriots because the Patriots Super

381
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Speaker 1: Bowl odds are some are shorter by by by a smidge. Uh.

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Speaker 1: I mean the odds to win the FC and the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds for Miami and New England are both

384
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Speaker 1: thirty three to one Vandel They're exactly the same. So

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Speaker 1: what I do think what you're seeing is people this

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Speaker 1: is Bill bella chicken hype. To me, it's people thinking, Okay,

387
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Speaker 1: bad year, getting rid of Brady cam comes in, didn't

388
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Speaker 1: have the training camp, got Covid is still beloved by

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Speaker 1: the team, um can he improve when they get some

390
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Speaker 1: weapons back, will Belichick be able to figure out a

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Speaker 1: system that works better for them? I think that's I

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Speaker 1: think that's what you're seeing. Yeah, I've talked to plenty

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Speaker 1: of professionals that they're in on the Patriots. But when

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Speaker 1: I asked them, what are they can do a week

395
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Speaker 1: seven when Cam goes down, it's Mac Jones coming, and

396
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Speaker 1: they don't really have an answer. It's like, I'm with them.

397
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Speaker 1: It feels like it should be the Patriots to be

398
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Speaker 1: that team. But I've told you many times, I'm so

399
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Speaker 1: in on Miami just because on paper, this defense, without

400
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Speaker 1: a doubt, to me, is the top five defense in

401
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Speaker 1: this league. I think Miami secondary is easily number one

402
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Speaker 1: in the league. They have the best corners, they have

403
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Speaker 1: really good safeties. I'm banking on two. It taking a

404
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Speaker 1: step up here, and it's just because of the value

405
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Speaker 1: I'm getting played out, Like, I think the value is

406
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Speaker 1: good enough to take him a four to one or

407
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Speaker 1: thirty five to one to win the Super Bowl. Where

408
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Speaker 1: to me, this division it's it's up for grabs. I

409
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,919
Speaker 1: know how people feel about the Bills, but like I'm

410
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Speaker 1: trying to explain to them, what's more likely Josh Allen

411
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Speaker 1: to get this huge contract and then throw for six again, No,

412
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Speaker 1: it's not. We've just seen the NFL that choose and

413
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Speaker 1: spit these guys out. Like I'm trying to explain to people,

414
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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz team got to a super Bowl on one

415
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Speaker 1: He's on a different team. Jared goff took his team

416
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Speaker 1: to a super Bowl. He's on a different team. It's

417
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Speaker 1: one of these things where your boy Mitch Drobiski kept

418
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Speaker 1: taking you guys to the playoffs. He's the backup now

419
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Speaker 1: to Josh Allen. It's just one of those just so

420
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Speaker 1: much turnover, That's what I'm betting on. It's nothing against

421
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Speaker 1: Josh Allen. I believe the hype. I think this guy's

422
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Speaker 1: the real deal, is a quarterback. But I just bet

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Speaker 1: on their being regression because we've just seen a time

424
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Speaker 1: time again, there's just always regression in the NFL. What

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen got this big contract. If Matt Mitchell was

426
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: able to speak, then maybe he wants to weigh in

427
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: on this too. But it did feel very Jared Goffian

428
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: to me, big contract off of one season, a massive

429
00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: improvement from one season to the next, and and Is

430
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: it setting the quarterback up to fail? Is it over

431
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: investing in a guy and giving up too much of

432
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: your team? Uh? Based on that one season, these guys

433
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: watch every single throw, they must feel like they're seeing something.

434
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 1: But then again, they gave they gave it to Jared

435
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: Goff and Sean McVey is supposed to be the smartest

436
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 1: guy in football. Yeah, I think that's a it's an

437
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: unfair comparison to compare Josh Allen to Jared Goff From

438
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 1: a tools perspective alone, I think that's intellectually dishonest. But

439
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,199
Speaker 1: from a like does it make me anxious? No? I

440
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 1: mean that's someone that survived, you know, the Billy Joel

441
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: Hobert's and the alex Fan Peltz of the world quarterback

442
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: in this team for nine years. I don't stop my money,

443
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: But you don't pay for one season. We're paying for

444
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 1: a trajectory. And from the quarterback that started in trying

445
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: to jump over Vikings defenders and playing like a total idiad.

446
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: So the way he played last year, every year has

447
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: shown an improvements. So I think it it's not necessarily

448
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: paying for one season of success, it's paying for a

449
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: trajectory of improvement only in house with the current people

450
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 1: that are there. They're paying him to take that next

451
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 1: step without having to wait for take that step um

452
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: and ultimately that's probably as good as you can get

453
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: other than the home situation where he just led them

454
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 1: to it let him to the Super Bowl. I'm not

455
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: mad about it. I don't feel like it's gonna come

456
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 1: blow up in our faces, And ultimately I'd rather have

457
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: him do it now than have become a giant distraction

458
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: in a future season, regardless of how it goes to

459
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: save a couple million. I only am thinking about the

460
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 1: fact that you just insulted me in a way that

461
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 1: is meaner than anybody's insulted me in years. I know

462
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: as a as an author of at least two books,

463
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 1: I knew that calling you infectually dishonest would be hitting

464
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: you where it hurts. Also, our own Chris Rabon would

465
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: be the first person to point out that all of

466
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: the people catching footballs for Josh allen In and I

467
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: believe as well, are like essentially out of football, and

468
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: we're out of football almost immediately, that he had without

469
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 1: question the worst collection of past receivers at the running back,

470
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: wide receiver and ten end position like assembled in like

471
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: league history. So I think also once the adults around

472
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 1: to be improved, I don't think it's improven as all

473
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: that surprising. Mike Kerns, who is one of the partners

474
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: at the Churning Group which founded the Action Network, he

475
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 1: was the guy that recruited me from ESPN to come

476
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 1: help everybody launch the Action Network. At his favorite saying

477
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: and my favorite saying of his whenever we were sitting

478
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: down to review performance of Action, let's be intellectually honest

479
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,119
Speaker 1: about what we're looking at, which I love, is a

480
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 1: phrase I love as a practice. It really just means

481
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 1: put aside your personal feelings, only look at it based

482
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: on the data that you're seeing, which is, you know,

483
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 1: in theory, going to be clean and impartial. And I

484
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: feel like I try to exercise that and you just

485
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: my feelings. The best part about Mike currents and extremely

486
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: intellectually on a sky, no one would be a beyond approach,

487
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: and like exactly that's why, Like if he would make

488
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 1: a suggestion, I feel like it would be hard to

489
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 1: counter it unless I had better data than he had.

490
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: Do we need do we need to call him about golf?

491
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: We probably should call him about Josh Allen and Jared Goff.

492
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 1: There is no more person, there's no person better at

493
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: delving into intellectual honesty than he is, and he will

494
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: give us the right answer. Matt I want you to

495
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: uh clip this segment. We're gonna send it to him

496
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: and he will weigh in and we will give the

497
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: listeners the answer next week. You got it. Let the

498
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: record show that I'm not saying he's gonna be Jared Goff.

499
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 1: I'm just letting people know that it's all good. Right now.

500
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 1: Life is good for you guys at this quarterback, but

501
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: it can change in the season. It's it's just been different.

502
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 1: The league used to be where you had a quarterback,

503
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 1: you just had him for twenty years. If he was

504
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: good for one or two seasons, he just kept him.

505
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if he sucks keeps sucking. You just

506
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: keep rolling them out there. Like I don't know, Matthew

507
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 1: Stafford really feels like he stands out where he's a

508
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: guy that really did nothing, but he always does something.

509
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: It's one of these guys where it's like, well, what

510
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: are you gonna do? You have Matthew Stafford, You're really

511
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: gonna get better. You can get worse than him. It's

512
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 1: just one of these guys where he's always in the

513
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: middle level. So I think that, of course he's a

514
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 1: great quarterback. But we're trying to bet a value based

515
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: job here, and that's my job. They're trying to find

516
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 1: value for each division. So I'm not saying I do

517
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: think Buffalo is gonna win this division. But if I'm

518
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: just playing the numbers and what's the most likely outcome

519
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: and what has the highest percentage of happening, you know,

520
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 1: Miami has the best value right now in this division.

521
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: That's just one of these things where they're closer to

522
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 1: two fifty or two hundred they are the three thirty

523
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 1: three fifties. So that's what I'm just trying to say

524
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: to people, is like, you're looking at these divisions. Of

525
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: course the Bills are a great team. We have to

526
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: think yourself, Okay, is the NFL going to figure out

527
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 1: how to stop an offense with the whole offseason to

528
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 1: do so? And these coin flip games that they won

529
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: last year? You know again, after that Arizona game they

530
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: won seven straight games or eight straight games, how unlikely

531
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: that is to happen again. It's pretty unlikely. It's just

532
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,959
Speaker 1: one of these things where NFL just has so much

533
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: turnover year to year. These things don't happen like that.

534
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,239
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm banking on. I want people to understand, like,

535
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 1: we love the Bills here, we're one of the biggest Bills.

536
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: I mean, Matt Mitchell is playing the Bills music constantly.

537
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: I love watching the Bills offense too, But I just

538
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: have to bet what the most likely thing is to happen.

539
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,919
Speaker 1: The most likely thing is he's gonna regress and he's

540
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: gonna have a shitty year this year, Josh Allen. So

541
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: that's why, like in fantasy football, we can talk that too.

542
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: I'm staying away from Josh Allen. I'm still I'm still

543
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: drafting Stefon Diggs. I still love that guy's upside. But

544
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: with Josh Allen, I just think people are buying what

545
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: happened last year. They're not really paying for what's gonna

546
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 1: happen this year. All right, well, let me let me

547
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: let me try to summarize it, because we're unloading a

548
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: lot of valuable information here. I think from a strictly

549
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 1: from a Bill's perspective, they have been bet up now

550
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: ten and a half some places eleven. You like them

551
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: under you don't mind the minus one fifty to win

552
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: the division, but because you feel like that's a little

553
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: bit low compared to where it should be. Yeah, it's

554
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: good value, but you're like Miami at plus three better.

555
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: So does that mean you've bet both Miami at plus

556
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: three and Buffalo at minus I I did the Bills,

557
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: but I did them with like, you know, um a

558
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: class like I do these weird parlays. I like to

559
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: do divisional parlays. So I might have done the Bills

560
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: Chiefs in Green Bay or the Bucks, the Bills and

561
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 1: the Chiefs like that, that kind of thing. I pair

562
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: them up like that. I just don't do stand still

563
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: bets with division just because you know, if I'm gonna

564
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: have something tie it up for six months, I'd rather

565
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: have a plus four hundred plus five hundred and a

566
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: three team parlay then just bet them minus one fifty

567
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 1: straight up. So I definitely do it a little weird.

568
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: But it's it's not that I'm scared to bet it more.

569
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: But it's one of these where I've just seen it

570
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: time and time again. There's just so much turnover. They

571
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: could be the best team right now in August, and

572
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: then come December, somehow the Bills are struggling to get

573
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: the eight to nine wins. It's it's just football is

574
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: so weird that way, which when ship goes wrong for

575
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: these teams, that goes totally wrong. So I haven't put

576
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: too many eggs in this basket. But of all these divisions,

577
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: these are one of these, Like, you know, this feels

578
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: like this division where it can go wrong quick and

579
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: the Bills are going to run away with it by

580
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: week eight. So that's why it's one of those where

581
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: like I feel comfortable having them in a couple of parlays.

582
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: I truly have no idea how many bets you have

583
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 1: on a going into the season and then on a

584
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: weekly basis, Like your volume of betting is astounding to me,

585
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: and I I have no doubt like on that parlay,

586
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: those two parlays you mentioned, you probably put a thousand

587
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: dollars down in both of them, way more. But it's

588
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: one of those two where like people are asking me

589
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 1: about my unit size, I told them I'm only doing

590
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: this unit ship because you asked me to do that.

591
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: I'm not a unit better. Like someone was like, why

592
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 1: I had like bets for the priests, and I said

593
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 1: I want six units. That's not true. I probably won

594
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: like eleven or twelve thousand dollars, but I don't know.

595
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: It's a unit to me one thousands of two thousand.

596
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 1: I don't know. By the way, I didn't I've never

597
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: asked you to do units. Well, you told me not

598
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: to do cash because I told you. I was just

599
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: gonna say, like I bet ten k on this. By

600
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 1: the way, I have never said, don't tell me cash.

601
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: Never in fact you did. Or maybe it was Scott

602
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: Maybe let get back, well it was Scott Miller. Then

603
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: he's an idiot, you guys. Well, no, I think it

604
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: was like he was saying he doesn't want people to

605
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: be betting, like like, if there's a game I bet

606
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 1: ten units on, Am I really telling people to bet

607
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: ten units? I don't know how much ten units is

608
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: to them? So like that was all saying him like

609
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to do one or two or three

610
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: unit kind of bets because like I don't know. I

611
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 1: didn't really know. I don't know. I don't understand the

612
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: whole unit thing. Let me be clear to you right now.

613
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: Let me be clear to you right now. If you

614
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,719
Speaker 1: tell me you made a bet and I say how

615
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 1: much was the bet, just tell me the fucking cash.

616
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: Don't give me this unit bullshit. Now. Scott Miller, who

617
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: I love to death uh and is one of the

618
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: members of our executive staff and oversees a lot of

619
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: various elements of our product and our business uh and

620
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 1: used to work for me. That's how good I am

621
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: at training people up. He came in working for me,

622
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: and now like I gotta listen to what he says

623
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: about certain elements of the business, which is fucking bullshit.

624
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: I know why Scott Miller is saying that. I know

625
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: exactly why I saying it because people who are in

626
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: the app like they bet on units, and it's it's

627
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: better for them to be able to say, oh, Simon

628
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 1: Hunter is a professional. Better he bet three units on

629
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: this that's a lot. That means I should feel comfortable

630
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: betting a lot of my units on this game for

631
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: purposes of this podcast. I want to know the fucking

632
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: cash number. Yeah, we can do that stuff. I would

633
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: say week one, Um, I bet you by now on

634
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 1: futures and week one bets, I probably have like six

635
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 1: figures out there, but all this money has just rolled

636
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,959
Speaker 1: over from that trade land still on the draft, like

637
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: this is none of this is new money. So it's

638
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: definitely one of those were saying I took a hit

639
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: on the draft and I lost a lot of money.

640
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: It would be lower. I want to tell people how

641
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: much I'm betting, but I also don't want people putting

642
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: their whole life savings into these certain bets. You know

643
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: what I mean. I get it. I get it the

644
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: volume you are betting out there, in the size of

645
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: the bets, like it's not like you're just betting the

646
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: five games we talked about every week, And I want

647
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 1: people to understand too. That's how they should learn from

648
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: how I bet where. If I posted the Action app,

649
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: I feel really good about it. That's not my only

650
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: action for the weekend. I might have a hundred other bets,

651
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: but if I'm putting into the app, that's what I

652
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: feel the strongest about because I'm giving them those bets.

653
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: I'm just like everyone else. I love Action. I'm always

654
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: betting games. There's a difference between betting ten dollars on

655
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: a game and betting ten thousand. That's what I'm trying

656
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: to get people learn here. It's like, you don't need

657
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 1: to bet a big money every night. You can just

658
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: bet a couple of money to win dinner for that night.

659
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: Um it's again, it's funny thing I'm trying to people

660
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: to get learn here. It's don't force these bets. It's

661
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: that's what the bookmaker wants you to do. All I

662
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: want to spend a few minutes. I never bet anything

663
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 1: less than ten thousand dollars a game. And now a

664
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: word from our friends at FanDuel. One of the things

665
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669
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670
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671
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Speaker 1: dollars back with parlay insurance. I've been known to make

672
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 1: a few baseball parlays during the summer. Gives me a

673
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: chance for a big payout just to have a little

674
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,320
Speaker 1: fun on a summer afternoon. Looking at the odds tonight,

675
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna tail our Action Network experts Stucky

676
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 1: and b J Cunningham and take the Marlins at plus

677
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,000
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678
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: Orioles at plus two ten plus. Vanduel has same game parlays,

679
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693
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694
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695
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696
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697
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698
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699
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700
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00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: visit www dot one eight zero zero gambler dot net

702
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. I

703
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 1: do want to spend a few minutes so I know

704
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 1: where you stand on Buffalo under the season win total?

705
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 1: Uh parlay in the minus one fifty, Miami you like

706
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 1: plus three win the division. You think that's the best value.

707
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: You're not in on New England. What's their season win total?

708
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: About nine? And you're under that under on the nine.

709
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 1: And are you over on Miami which is also at nine?

710
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 1: I think over on Miami? All right? So the only

711
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,359
Speaker 1: other team that I want to talk about, and then

712
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, like you like Miami at thirty three two

713
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: one is a good value play probably nothing else. And

714
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: of those three teams, um, you just mentioned Zack Wilson.

715
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 1: What I thought, I'm not a fan of I think

716
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 1: he'll be a bust. I think he's the biggest bust

717
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: of that class. Um Uh, you mentioned the complete opposite

718
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: from the preseason. What did you see that made you

719
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: feel this way? He said, some thros give me some examples. Yeah,

720
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 1: because preseason, again, he could have thrown five picks. In

721
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: my opinion, would still be what it is right now

722
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: if he played the exact same he did. Where I'm

723
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:21,280
Speaker 1: looking for confidence and professional throws, and he had both.

724
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 1: Where he's stepping into the pocket, he was making good reads,

725
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: he was moving well in the pocket to like Tray Lance.

726
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 1: He was getting all the hype. Tray Lance moved like

727
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: ship in the pocket. He made terrible reads for the

728
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 1: forty niners. It's one of these where he looked like

729
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: a guy who just took a whole season off trail Lance.

730
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 1: So that made sense why he played too bad. And

731
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: when I was looking for Zack Wilson was again I'm

732
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 1: there with you, like coming in. I don't get the hype.

733
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: He I did not think he should have been drafted

734
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: number two overall. But if this kid can move in

735
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: the pocket like he moved in that preseason game, and

736
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: if he can make smart reads and fit the ball

737
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 1: into tight windows. This kid's gonna be starting this league,

738
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it. So we'll see how he

739
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: progresses through the years and how he's gonna do this

740
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 1: upcoming season. But this upcoming season, I'm gonna be fading

741
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: them because again, he's an idiot. He's doing he did

742
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: a lot of really stupid ship too, because he's a

743
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback. And again, nothing against um the Jets team,

744
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 1: but Joe Douglas is building a team that was pretty

745
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,479
Speaker 1: much started at zero. They just had so many holes.

746
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: So right now, the only thing good about this team

747
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: is their d line. That's not winning the many games

748
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: this upcoming season, so I'm on their underwin total as well. Um,

749
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: I just have all the rookies right now. I was

750
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,959
Speaker 1: way down on him the most, and coming after that game,

751
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 1: I just I feel better about what the Jets have

752
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: in the future in the sense that at least they

753
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 1: know they this kid can be a professional. Now that

754
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: you have the brains, I have no idea. I don't

755
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 1: know how smart, how hard of a worker this kid,

756
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson is, and that's everything, Like you can be

757
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: the most talented athlete in the world. If you don't

758
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 1: put the work in, if you're not smart enough, you're

759
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 1: never gonna last in this league. And that that for

760
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: for all the Jets fans, I would say that would

761
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: be the biggest worry. Is this kid, you know, if

762
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: he's success after the first or second year, what the

763
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 1: hell is his life going to be like? Because this

764
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: is some kid coming from you talk to New York City,

765
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 1: and it does those little things like that and make

766
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 1: me worried about what Zach Wilson will turn into in

767
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: the future. Uh, if we're being intellectually honest, it feels

768
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 1: like part of your bias for Zach Wilson is because

769
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: your expectations were so low. It's so low in the

770
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,919
Speaker 1: sense that I thought, like I just said, I thought

771
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 1: he was gonna look like Trey Lance did, where you

772
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: might have one or two good plays, but he was

773
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 1: gonna be five of twelve and just look like a

774
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: rookie out there throwing against like, you know, starters where

775
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: I can't get over how good he looked. I just

776
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: can't believe that, like this kid actually has legit down

777
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: place because I watched a lot of the film, like

778
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: I'm watching the Digitts practice where this kid's throwing terrible

779
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 1: passes and get picked off every rather playing It's like,

780
00:39:56,239 --> 00:40:00,280
Speaker 1: holy ship, they might have made a huge mistake here. Um,

781
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 1: I think you're saying that just because I'm shooting on

782
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 1: your Justin Fields sing where I love Justin Fields. I

783
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: thought he did good. It's just one of those I

784
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 1: try to make. I'm trying to find the middle ground

785
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: both these guys where it's like you're looking for how

786
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: they progress and what their progressive are in the pocket.

787
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: Like the thing you took away from Justin Fields which

788
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 1: made you feel so happy was this guy doesn't need

789
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: a good offensive line. He can move in the pocket

790
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: and get outside the pocket where we know the Bears

791
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 1: have a ship offensive line. Who do you want to

792
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: start any Dalton who's a statue or Justin Fields who

793
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: can move and run in the pockets. So that's why,

794
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: like I get what the Bears are saying, Like you

795
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 1: guys much rather have Justin Field start than any Dalton.

796
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 1: No one's saying no to that. But when I look

797
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 1: at Zack Wilson, I just think this kid's coming from

798
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: you know, just gets just have so much smoked one

799
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: up his ass. Coming out of Utah that like, I

800
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 1: was gonna think this kid is gonna come in and

801
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 1: just think he was hot ship where it sounds like

802
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: he's actual hard working kid who's like putting his nose

803
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 1: to the ground and actually doing the stuff you need

804
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 1: to do to succeed. So again, I did have low

805
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: expectations for him. You were right about that, but I

806
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: would say I'm gonna start raising them now because I've

807
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: seen the potential that other people are seeing. The Zach

808
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 1: Wilson Simon. There is no middle ground on this topic.

809
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 1: There is the sky, there is the moon. That's it.

810
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: When you are a top quarterback, the expectations are, you

811
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 1: come in, you make this team better, you take them

812
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl, you win m VPS, you go

813
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: to the Hall of Fame. That's it. That's that's my expectation.

814
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: By the time I retire, I am going to finish

815
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: my career in media in Canton at Justin Fields Hall

816
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 1: of Fame ceremony. Okay, we'll talk taking Justin Fields out.

817
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: We're sitting here right now in early August. Which one

818
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 1: of these guys is Rosen, Which one of these guys

819
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 1: is going to be a journeyman off a team in

820
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: the next two to three years. If you had to

821
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: put my own, would it be Zack Wilson, Zach Wilson

822
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: and Mac Jones. So I've actually switched rom on Trevor

823
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: Lawrence now, which we're gonna talk about during the season. Look,

824
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 1: we haven't gotten there yet. We haven't gotten there yet.

825
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 1: I know we're gonna save that for when we do

826
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 1: that division. But I people are gonna see. I'm gonna

827
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: be one of the biggest haters on him, um because

828
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 1: to me, he's just the more I've seen, the more

829
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: I read, it feels like he's got a lot of

830
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 1: bus potential right now on when that especially with Urban Meyer,

831
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: who I think is gonna be in over his head

832
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 1: once the season starts. Man, all right, well that is

833
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 1: setting us up for a great a f C South podcast.

834
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,439
Speaker 1: Uh Matt Mitchell, Can I call an audible since we're

835
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 1: since we're foreshadowing right now what we think about the

836
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: a f C South Right now we have uh NFC

837
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 1: South on the agenda for Thursday? Can I call an

838
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: audible and make a f C South the team for

839
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,959
Speaker 1: the conference the division for Thursday? Reason an FC South

840
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: was slid it for it next Thursday. Is it looks

841
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: like we'll be joined by former n FC South player

842
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 1: Darius Butler, formerly of the Okay. Then you know what,

843
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna change it. I'm not gonna change by

844
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: the way. I'm intellectually honest about the process and I

845
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: understand my place in it. And Matt Mitchell, who launched

846
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,720
Speaker 1: the number one new football podcast in the country last week,

847
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus. Go check it out with Colin

848
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: Wilson and Stucky and also our brand new employee at

849
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 1: the Action Network, college football inside er extraordinaire, Brett McMurphy,

850
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: two time pew Litzer nominee. Go check out that podcast,

851
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: Go subscribe to that new channel. It's brilliant. It's amazing.

852
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell put together the whole plan to roll that

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Speaker 1: thing out. That's why I would ask him. I wouldn't

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00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: just say, hey, we're gonna switch it up, because I

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00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 1: knew he had a plan. Matt Mitchell incredibly intellectually honest.

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00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 1: So for those reasons alone, we're gonna stick with the

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Speaker 1: NFC South beginning next Thursday. It's good. It's a good

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00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 1: week long tease. That's what we're giving people now, right

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00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,839
Speaker 1: now we know we got Darius Butler, and we'll get

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00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: Darius Butler and what he thinks of Trevor Lawrence and

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00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 1: Simon thinking that he's a bust. This has been the

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00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download the podcast from

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00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: Apple podcast, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Will

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00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:27,320
Speaker 1: see you on Thursday for the NFC South Breakdown. Until

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00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: next time, I love you,