1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news kind the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. After a record setting investors 7 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: are sitting back here on this January four and saying, Okay, 8 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: now what do I do in next? Guest has some thoughts? 9 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 1: I am sure. Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist in 10 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: ahead of the Client portfolio Management at Federated Hermes, joins 11 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: us here. Phil, thanks so much for joining us once again, 12 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: boy your spot on with the bullish call in what 13 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: say you now as we start? Well, um, happy new 14 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: year by the way, Paul, thanks for having me back on. 15 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: So the piece, my year end focus piece that I 16 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: wrote just before Christmas was entitled It's always darkest just 17 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: before dawn, and and that would suggest that is going 18 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: to be a pretty good year. Our forecast for the 19 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: SMP last year was thirty eight hundred. We got close 20 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: to that about thirty seven fifty, and we think we 21 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: could get up to about the forty hundred level over 22 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: the course of calendar. But but two of the key 23 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,680 Speaker 1: fundamental issues that we're focused on is the coronavirus and 24 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: the vaccine and sort of issue number one and issue 25 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: two is divided government. And I got to tell you 26 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: that over the course of the last couple of weeks, 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: the vaccine distribution has not been as smooth, as not 28 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: been as widespread I think as a lot of people thought. 29 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: And that's got to raise some questions and um. While 30 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: on the Georgia runoffs tomorrow, while the two Republican candidates 31 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: look like they were in pretty good shape a couple 32 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: of weeks ago, the polls this morning would suggest that 33 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: the Democrats have caught up, and uh, they appear to 34 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: be in the lead right now. And you know, all right, 35 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: the polls have been horrific over the last four or 36 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 1: five years, So how much faith can you put in them? 37 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: But what it tells us is that we've got a 38 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: couple of coin flip elections tomorrow which could have a 39 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 1: significant bearing on government. Exactly what would it look like 40 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: in either scenario, What would be the things that would 41 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: impact markets most in terms of legislation under either scenario. Well, 42 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: I think if if if this morning's poles hold, let's 43 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: say the d S win both of those seats, therefore 44 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: they gain control of the government. And what we can 45 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: expect out of an incoming Biden administration then is probably 46 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: higher taxes and and and more spending and more stimulus 47 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: and more infrastructure. And so I think we're likely to 48 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: see a sugar high over the course of calendar twenty 49 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: one in terms of all of those things, but they'll 50 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: probably be a price to pay somewhere down the cycle. 51 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: And and maybe that that price to pay is in 52 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: calendar twenty two. Um. The issue with regard to the 53 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: coronavirus is, you know, are we gonna be able to 54 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: pick up the pace and get to a run rate 55 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 1: of say twenty five million vaccinations a month, which was 56 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,679 Speaker 1: our estimate, and frankly we thought we would be conservative, 57 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: but the healthcare experts were assuring us that we're going 58 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 1: to be able to, you know, vaccinate fifty million people 59 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 1: a month. We cut that number in half just to 60 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: be conservative. And and again based upon the expectations and 61 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: the what's happened over the last couple of weeks, maybe 62 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: twenty five million a month is way too optimistic. So, Phil, 63 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: if I've made a mistake in it relates to the markets, 64 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: that maybe it was just that I was overthinking things. 65 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: Maybe all I need to know is rates are low 66 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: and they're gonna stay low. Therefore I buy stocks. Is 67 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: that still not the call? It's absolutely the call. This 68 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: is a Tina scenario. There is no alternative. If you've 69 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: got benchmark ten, your treasury sitting at one percent, which 70 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: is basically where we are UM. Theoretically, the multiple you 71 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: should be willing to pay on forward earnings for stocks 72 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: has got to be at least twenty five times earnings UM. 73 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: So there's uh, there's no other place to be in 74 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: terms of either getting yield or capital appreciation potential in 75 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: the equity market given a low inflation, low interest rate environment, Phil, 76 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 1: what do you imagine will happen with inflation this year? 77 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: There is the theme in the market now that it 78 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 1: will rise a little bit the ten your inflation break 79 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: even back up beyond two percent, which hasn't happened since November. 80 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: Inflation absolutely is going higher. But but let me just 81 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: say that that J. Powell, the Federal Reserve, they're going 82 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: to church on Sunday, lighting candles, praying that inflation goes higher. 83 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: We we went from a two percent run rate on 84 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: core PC a year ago. We bottomed out sub one. 85 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: We're in the process of getting that back. We think 86 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: we'll be back to, you know, the two percent level 87 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: by the end of this year. That's exactly where the 88 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve needs to see it, wants to see it, 89 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: they're praying to see it. We need to have some 90 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: inflation in the economy. We're not talking about hyper inflation. 91 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: Two percent, two and a quarter or two and a 92 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 1: half percent. There is exactly what the Fed wants and 93 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: exactly what the market needs to see. So Phil, I 94 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: guess the question it real quickly thirty seconds rotation trade. 95 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: Are you in all in on that rotation trade into 96 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 1: cyclicals and small caps and things like that. We're still 97 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: there international large cap values, small caps, they've outperformed the 98 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: broad market over the last three or four months. We 99 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 1: think that trend continues over the course of twenty one. Well, Phil, Orlando, 100 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: always a pleasure to speak with you, in particularly the 101 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: first trading day of one. We look for lots more 102 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: c means to come throughout the year. Who knows what's 103 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: going to happen. Certainly we weren't expecting last year's roll 104 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: out as it happened, and there we got less. We 105 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: got plenty of news last year. Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes, 106 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining. On Saturday, President Trump 107 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: had an interesting phone call with Georgia Secretary of State 108 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: Brad Rappensburger, a Republican and Ryan Germany Rappensburger's General council 109 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: in the President's continuing efforts to influence the election in 110 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 1: that state. Let's take a listen to part of that discussion. So, look, 111 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: all I wanna do is this. I just want to 112 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: find uh eleven thousand, seven eight votes, which is one 113 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: more that we have because we won the state. So 114 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: so tell me, bred what are we gonna do. We 115 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: won the election, and it's not fair to take it 116 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: away from us like this, and it's gonna be very 117 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: caught late in many ways, and I think you have 118 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 1: to say that you're going to re examine it. And 119 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 1: you can re examine it, but but re examine it 120 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: with people that I want to find answers, not people 121 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: that don't want to find answers. That was President Trump 122 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: on a phone call Saturday with Georgias Secretary of State 123 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: Brad Raefensburger and Ryan Jeremany, Raeffensburger's general counsel. To help 124 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: us parse what this all means, we welcome Timothy O'Brien, 125 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: senior columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, UH, joining us from Montclair, 126 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: New Jersey. Tim, there's been so many odd twists and 127 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: turns to the last four years. Help us put in 128 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: the context the meaning and the significance of the phone 129 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: call yesterday between the President and the officials in Georgia. 130 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: Happy New Year, Paul, Um. You know, I think this 131 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: is more than just a twist return. I think we've 132 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: now got a recording of the President of the United 133 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: States trying to corrupt to state officials and convince them, 134 00:07:56,440 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: Um that uh, partaking in a in a political coup 135 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: is a necessary thing because the President feels that he 136 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: was treated unfairly. It's an hour long call, but you know, 137 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: a large dose of it is the President ranting about 138 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: these myths and fairy tales of election fraud and trying 139 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: to convince to Georgia officials to buy into that lie. 140 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: To their credit, neither one of them do, and they 141 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: both pushed back against him. But I think the larger 142 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: takeaway from this as well as what does this mean 143 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: about presidential authority, the sanctity of democracy and UH, the 144 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: election process and what will the Republican Party do UH 145 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: in its future posture around what we're seeing as a 146 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: core element of trump Ism, which is ignoring the rule 147 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 1: of law and a willingness to undermine democracy. And the 148 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 1: rhetoric is incredible, isn't it? Him? The way he expresses himself, 149 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: It's quite clear what he is looking for. You know, 150 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: he says, I only need eleven thousand votes, Fellows, I 151 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: need eleven thousand votes, and this idea of people who 152 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: want to find answers, not those who don't want to 153 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,559 Speaker 1: find answers. But he won't come out and say exactly 154 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: what he wants in clear language. Why is it that 155 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: that might be criminal? Well, I think he's pretty clear 156 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: about what he says here. Funny, you know, at one 157 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: point in the phone call, he says, what are we 158 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 1: gonna do here, folks? I only need eleven thousand votes, Fellas, 159 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: I need eleven thousand votes, and then he goes on 160 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: to essentially threaten them with criminal charges if they don't 161 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: support his claims. So I don't think there's anything murky 162 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: about what he's doing here. I also think it's entirely 163 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: consistent with his career. You know, as a developer and 164 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: a casino magnet, he routinely threatened browbeat, tried to buy off, 165 00:09:53,840 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: and corrupt regulators, politicians, competitors, law enforcement authorities. We know 166 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: that he got impeached for trying to convince Ukraine's president 167 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: to dig up dirt on Joe Biden, also in a 168 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: phone call that was I don't think murky at all either, 169 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 1: So I think this is all very consistent with who 170 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: Trump is. I don't think that he engages in this 171 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: kind of activity should surprise people. I think what should 172 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 1: surprise us is what does it mean about how easily 173 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: he corrupts people around him? And how well do American 174 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: institutions and processes that we all care about, I think 175 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: for nonpartisan, non ideological reasons, because they're the bedrocks or 176 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: our society. How much can those get eroded by this 177 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: kind of behavior? Tim has the first of all, is 178 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: there any do you think there's any exposure here for 179 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: the president from this phone call? Legally, there certainly is. 180 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 1: I mean, there's you know, trying to meddle in either 181 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: a federal or a state election. Uh is are both 182 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 1: federal and eight crimes, and they're punishable by prison terms. Um. 183 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 1: But there's a very difficult evidentiary hurdle you have to 184 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: overcome there. You really have to prove clearly prove intent 185 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: and um. You know that that's that's always a hard 186 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: standard for prosecutors to overcome. I think it would be 187 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: very hard in this case for them to prove it 188 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: beyond the reasonable doubt. But there's no question that there's 189 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: a lot of traction here should someone choose to pursue 190 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: criminal charges against the president. Tim Trump Bolsa tweeting this 191 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 1: morning that he'll be at the DC March January six. 192 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: Any concerns for you know, what might happen this week 193 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: in d C and beyond. Well, again, I think this 194 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: is this is consistent with what we were talking about. 195 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: January six is a significant day because that's the day 196 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: that Congress certifies, um, the Electoral College results in the 197 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: in the presidential election, and Trump has been encouraging his 198 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: supporters to march on the streets of Washington him there's 199 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: a chance that Uh, you know, peaceful protests could turn 200 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: into riots and uh and again it shows a willingness 201 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: to try to torch the Democratic Party, or rather the 202 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: democratic process, because Trump can't face losing and he wants 203 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: to suthe his own feelings. Tim, you know Donald Trump 204 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: better than probably anyone in the media, given your access 205 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: to him when you wrote your biography. What do you 206 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: expect Donald Trump to do in the weeks and months 207 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: after January He go down to Marrow Lago and simply 208 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 1: work on his golf game, or to expected to maintain 209 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: a high profile. He'll do both, Paul. I think he'll 210 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 1: he'll go down and play his golf game and watch 211 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: sports and and and relax, because that's what he does 212 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 1: most of the time already. I think in addition, he's 213 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: going to try to maintain a presence in the media. 214 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: I suspect he'll try to buy or start a media company. 215 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: I don't know that a labeled be able to run 216 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 1: particularly well, but there'll be a lot of energy around 217 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: that in the early stages. I also think he's going 218 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 1: to try to continue to throw sand into the machinery 219 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: of Joe Biden's administration and into um fishers he's already 220 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: created within the Republican Party, and make no mistake about it. 221 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he's millions and millions of people 222 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: out there would subscribe to a Trump channel rights and 223 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: that would you know, keep the momentum going and possibly 224 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 1: keep him in the public eye until the next go round. 225 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: That's that's very possible, Vonnie. But you know, as we 226 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,599 Speaker 1: all know, in this business, you can come out of 227 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 1: the gate strong with a new media product, but maintaining 228 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 1: people's interests over time requires a lot of hard work 229 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: and talent. Uh, It's it's easier said than done. And um, 230 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: he's not a good manager. I would imagine Jared Kushner 231 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: would run an enterprise like that for him, But Jared 232 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: Kushner has improved himself to be a particularly good manager either. Um. 233 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:00,719 Speaker 1: But there's no question and that that I think it 234 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: will be easy for him to get funding and a 235 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: lot of initial excitement around something like that briefly him 236 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: were out of time. But I'm curious as to what 237 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: you think will happen in Georgia. I mean, obviously COVID 238 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 1: striking there as well, for do not being able to 239 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: be on the trail for the last few days. Well, 240 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: you know, it's I think I I think it's hard 241 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: to say. I think I think it's gonna it could 242 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: be very hard for both Democrats I think to win 243 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: their I think they've faced long odds. But um, it's 244 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: going to be an interesting result to watch for sure, 245 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: and we'll be covering it right here on Bloomberg Radio 246 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: over the next couple of days. Tim O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion 247 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 1: senior columnist, thank you for joining his latest column. Trump 248 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: phone call is what cou fever looks like. Well, the 249 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 1: OPEC plus monthly meeting is under way. Sally Radio made 250 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: some opening statements and so far not too many surprises. 251 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: Russia looking to increase production, which was anticipated but may 252 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: not get its way. Let's bring in somebody who knows 253 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: all about the US and what impact it will have 254 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: on the oil markets. Mike Mcglonana's comology strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. 255 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: So where are we with OPEC supply and what will 256 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: happen this month? Hivani OPEC is basically fighting a losing battle. 257 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 1: The key sometimes you get these ringing bells and markets 258 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: and the fact that they said that they're going to 259 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: go on week a monthly meetings NOWS indicative. The big 260 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: problem of a cartel. A cartel is duty is to 261 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: limit supply. They're having a hard time doing that and 262 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: keeping prices up, and they need money. So I view 263 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: Crudel is a bear market that's simply resuming. It made 264 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: an all time low last year, but now it's a 265 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: you know, w t I near fifty is more likely, 266 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: and gold towards forty and very unlikely to get near sixty, 267 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: particularly if we see continued increasing voltilling the stock market. 268 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: So Opex doing the best they can in a very 269 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: challenging environment. And key thing, remember Crudel is in a 270 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: bear market before the pandemic. Alright, So Mike, give us 271 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: a sense of where Russia is these days, because I 272 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: always just feel like from a supply per factive, they're 273 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: the you know, kind of the wild card. Yeah, what, 274 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: Russia is a wild card, and just like every other 275 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: country in the world dependent on energy production, they need 276 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: money and there's only gonna be so long they'll be 277 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: able to last. I mean, they've cut supply a lot, 278 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: but I view it as OPEC is a big part 279 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: of but right, you know, w T I and your 280 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: fifty is the old sixty for shale, they're getting clapped 281 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: back to supply coming on. And the key thing is 282 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: globally is that incremental elastic demand that we remember from kids. 283 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: Isn't this not happening anymore? It just does not happen 284 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: in this particularly not happening with e v S and 285 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: the trend towards decarbonization. And then of course we have 286 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: this little issue with people not driving to work anymore, 287 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: right exactly, and you know coronavirus impacting everything from the 288 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: supply chain to the amount of workers and so on. 289 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: What countries are going to be in trouble if oil 290 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: demand doesn't recover more. Well, you mentioned the key ones, 291 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: and I think this is a key issue we need 292 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: to look forward to. If you're a U S Intelligent agency, 293 00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 1: look at Saudi Arabia potential for civil and rest and 294 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: a lot of the opaque countries because they're just not 295 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: gonna be able to meet and look at the debt downgrading. 296 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: Potentially Russian maybe less so, but that is key Radar. 297 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: I think you should expect that in the future as 298 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 1: these countries dependent on this revenue they're not getting in anymore, 299 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: and subsidize their countries big issues, and I just don't 300 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: see it coming back. And the key think remembers time 301 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: to kids working against crude oil bowl market, because what 302 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: do we do with technology, But it's working for a 303 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: bowl market in metals, gold, silver, platinum, pladium kind of things. 304 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: So what so, Mike, I mean, the reopening trade is 305 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: certainly driving equity valuations, and for a long time it 306 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: seems like they were correlated with oil as well. But 307 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 1: you think the equity or the reopening trade is not 308 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: as big a driver for the oil markets. Um, it 309 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 1: isn't because there's just been a permanent paradigm shift in 310 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: work from home, and you since that even in our office, 311 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: I mean five percent of our hundred people are so 312 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: in b are coming back, yet more people should. They're 313 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: just note I think it's been somewhat permanent. And the 314 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: key thing is I like to point as incremental demand 315 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: for liquid fuel in this country was actually in decline 316 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: and all the reversion estimates were in decline on a 317 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 1: global scale before the pandemic. So to me, this has 318 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: accelerated that process. So as a commodity guy, I just 319 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: cannot get bullish crude oil. I look over to metals 320 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: and maybe eggs and then things like bitcoin where you 321 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: have limited supply and demand. Well, that's the thing. How 322 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,400 Speaker 1: can you have oil in a bear market on something 323 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: like bitcoin? You know, just rallying and continuing to rally, 324 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 1: as you said, it got over thirty four thousand dollars 325 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 1: a coin at the weekend. It's now, well, we can 326 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: go to bitcoin as much as possible. But just transition 327 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 1: from oil, Oil and copper have a high correlation historically, 328 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 1: that's breaking down now oil is well supplied, copper is not. 329 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 1: And then going in the bitcoin, just like gold, has 330 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: limited the supply. But the key thing I think about 331 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: bitcoin is that historic example of a number of many 332 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: major people in institutions in the world allocating the gold 333 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: and holding gold and knowingness the story value they know, 334 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: not that bitcoin. They have to probably hold some bitcoin too. 335 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 1: But bitcoin is the new digital version of gold in 336 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: increasing in digital world now right now, Yes, it's a 337 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: little bit overdone. Put put ourselves a year or two 338 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: ahead and ahead if this NASSA technology doesn't fail, which 339 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: it's not going to and less likely, and that was 340 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: a year ago. The price has to continue is more 341 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 1: likely continue to advance, probably more so than gold. Which 342 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: brings me to you know, kind of a bitcoin question here. 343 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: I don't have any or we don't have as investors 344 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 1: much historical uh data to look at to get a 345 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,479 Speaker 1: sense of where are we in terms of relative value? 346 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: You know, say, you know, gold, I can always look 347 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 1: back years. I don't have that with bitcoin. So all 348 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 1: I have now from a bitcoin call is limited supply 349 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: rising demand. Yes, and I'd like to go there, Paul, 350 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: because I think that's the right way to start. Is 351 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: people keep claiming bitcoins of store value and I'd say, 352 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 1: not yet. It's not yet. It's too young, but it's 353 00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: getting there. So one way to look at it is 354 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: um market cabin Bitcoin is around just below six billion UM. 355 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 1: That's you know, compared to gold which is around UM 356 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: one maybe ten eleven trillions, So it can double this 357 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: year and it's still a small portion of more the 358 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: big space. And to me, that's what's happening is becoming 359 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 1: it's getting into this space. Uh. In Another way to 360 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 1: look at is let's look at volatively. Bitcoin violatively two 361 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 1: sixty day bases, which is annualized is the lowest ever 362 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: versus gold, versus stock market, in versus the oil, which 363 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 1: means this nassaid space is gaining that robustness and oomph 364 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: to be part of the main mainstream. Michael Blogan, thank 365 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: you so much. We appreciate it as always trying to make, 366 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,479 Speaker 1: you know, put bitcoin into some perspective, and it's very 367 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 1: difficult for a lot of investors just seeing this thing 368 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: continue to move ever higher. Mike mclogan, commodity strategist for 369 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. Somehow we let them get out of the 370 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: room without talking about pork bellies, but we'll do that 371 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 1: next time. Bitcoin seems to be what's of interest to 372 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: most people now, Vinnie, And it's just extraordinary. You look 373 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: at that one year chart on the performer or the 374 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: multi year chart of bitcoin, it's just extraordinary, straight up. Yes, 375 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: we'll have to see, you know how far this can 376 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 1: can can run pull. Yeah, it's just it's just amazing. 377 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: And the you know, Anthony Scarmucci Skybridge will be coming 378 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: on our show tomorrow. They're actually starting a bitcoin fund, 379 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: so that'll be interesting to discuss as well. Well. Let's 380 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: get the very latest now on the virus, where we 381 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: are with it, where we are with a new strain, 382 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: and where we are with vaccination. Mittell Cortez is medical 383 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 1: science and tech reporter here at Bloomberg and is always 384 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: on top of things. Michelle, want to start with the 385 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 1: new variant of COVID nineteens. It was detected for the 386 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 1: first time last week in the United States. It's now 387 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: in three states that we know of, Colorado, California, and Florida. 388 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 1: But a terrifying thing is something that one of the 389 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: doctors you talked to said to you, and that is quote. 390 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 1: It's a function of if you look for it, you 391 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: will find it. It is the case that the US 392 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: doesn't actually test the strains of COVID that people have. 393 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,880 Speaker 1: It just tests for COVID. Is that changing? That is changing? 394 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,159 Speaker 1: The CDC has said that it's going to start ramping 395 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: up it's testing capacity for genetic sequencing of the coronavirus strain. 396 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: Here that want to be doing at least seven hundred 397 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: and fifty of these tests a week. Realize that this 398 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,199 Speaker 1: is a process that the US can do. We do 399 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 1: test our influenza strains. It's just that there are so 400 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: many pieces happening at once when it comes to coronavirus 401 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 1: that this hasn't been the priority. And Bonnie, if you 402 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: think about it. We have one case in Colorado, one 403 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: case in California, one case in Florida. None of them traveled, 404 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: none of them touched each other, So we know it's 405 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: you know, it's widespread across the United States, right, one 406 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 1: on the east, one in the west, one in the 407 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 1: middle of the country. So it's here, yes, here. So Michelle, 408 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: what do we know about this strain as it relates 409 00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: to transmissibility, Maybe the way it's treated, and most importantly, 410 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: I guess, uh, the efficacy of the vaccine on the strain. Right, Well, 411 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 1: there's good news here and bad news. Will start with 412 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: the good news, which is that there is all indications 413 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: of the vaccines that we have will be effective against 414 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 1: the strain. The other piece of good news is that 415 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem to be more severe or more deadly 416 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: if you pick up this particular variant. The issue is 417 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: that it's much more transmissible. So what that means is 418 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: that even keeping the same level of severity, when you're 419 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,400 Speaker 1: going to hit more people because it's easier to spread, 420 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: you will ultimately have more hospitalizations in depth. And that's 421 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: the piece that we want to get on top of 422 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: the other thing is that the reason that the vaccination 423 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: will work is because when you vaccinate someone, you you 424 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: flare up their entire immune system and you have many 425 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 1: antibodies that are working against the virus. Some of the 426 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: therapeutics that we have are monoclonal antibodies. They only use 427 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: one or two or three antibodies to go after the virus, 428 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: and if there has been a mutation on that particular piece, 429 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: some of those mono colonal antibodies might not work. There's 430 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 1: still research underway to see if that's in fact the case. 431 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 1: And then the most problematic, the most potentially terrifying piece 432 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 1: of this is that when we see the mutations happening, 433 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 1: you can get a mutation on top of the mutation. 434 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: And that's what the scientists are really worried about. Here. 435 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: We're opening up the virus itself. We have any mutation, 436 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:36,880 Speaker 1: it's more transmissible if that version mutates again, because all 437 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: viruses mutate constantly to become more severe. That's the piece 438 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: that we're worried about. So it's a building block, you know, 439 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: one on top of another. We have now had one 440 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: building block ball. If another mutation happens on top of 441 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:55,200 Speaker 1: that variant, that's where we could really get introuble. That's terrifying, Michelle. 442 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,040 Speaker 1: In the UK, we're seeing cases top fifty thousand a 443 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: day now again, the you know, Cambinet is in crisis, 444 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: and it looks like in a speech today at three 445 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 1: pm Eastern eight pm London time, it looks like Boris 446 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 1: Johnson will announce new coronavirus restrictions, possibly even a third 447 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 1: national lockdown. Certainly in Scotland the First Minister appeared to 448 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: anticipate that move and she is implementing a lockdown from 449 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 1: midnight tonight. Is that in the U s is future. 450 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: There is definitely some indications that the US is going 451 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: to have to take action in order to stop the 452 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 1: spread of this variant. We know that it came out 453 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 1: first in the UK, or at least it was widely 454 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,440 Speaker 1: spreading there, so we can look to the UK to 455 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 1: see what's going to happen here in the United States, 456 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: a very different country obviously than the UK, although more 457 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: similar to the UK than to China, which just locked 458 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: everything down right out of the gate. In the US, 459 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,640 Speaker 1: we've really had a lot of resistance against doing this, 460 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: and we've allowed governors and mayors to make the decisions 461 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 1: for their own localities. So will there be a nationwide lockdown? 462 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 1: Will President all to Biden actually enact that once he 463 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,360 Speaker 1: comes into the presidency. I don't know if he could 464 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,199 Speaker 1: even do that, right, We've already seen Americans and not 465 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: abiding by other kind of rules. Don't go to a 466 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 1: party on New Year's Eve with thirty thousand of your 467 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: closest friends, wear a mask. You know, there's we've struggled 468 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 1: to do that sort of thing. But in terms of 469 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 1: governors and mayors, certainly we're going to be seeing more 470 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: of that coming our way. And the bottom line is 471 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,199 Speaker 1: that people are going to have to actually do some 472 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: of this social distancing much more aggressively in order to 473 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: slow the set of this virus, or we're just going 474 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 1: to have rising deaths and hospitalizations. Michelle, let's pivot to 475 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 1: the vaccines. Frustration that they're not getting uh into people's 476 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: arms as quickly as we would have initially hoped. I 477 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,439 Speaker 1: guess one of the questions is, even if a batch 478 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 1: of vaccines gets delivered to a state, or to a 479 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 1: locality or to a hospital, the percentage actually getting into 480 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: people's arms is shockingly low. And I think that's what 481 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: surprising people. What are we know well there is a 482 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,199 Speaker 1: host of things that are happening here right. The issue 483 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: is is that this is a very complicated process and 484 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 1: it involves in every single case, an individual who has 485 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 1: to take an action. When it comes to doing something 486 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,919 Speaker 1: like inventing a test, inventing a vaccine, that type of 487 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 1: the thing, you have a small number of people, you know, 488 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: maybe maybe a few hundred or a few thousand, but 489 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 1: it's it's concentrated. When you're trying to vaccinate the entire country, 490 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 1: you're going to have to have everyone in the entire 491 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 1: country on board, and as we've already just discussed, that's 492 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 1: not happening in the United States. So we're struggling with 493 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 1: actually getting people to sign up. We know that there 494 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,360 Speaker 1: are some nursing homes who are only a tiny fraction 495 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: you know, twelve percent, fifteen percent of the staff members 496 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: that some of these locations are signing up to get 497 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: in in eye. So the hesitancy is there, not only that, 498 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 1: just the actual process. When you have people signing up 499 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 1: and they don't appear for their for their vaccine shots. 500 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: Should you have people lining up, should you have people 501 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: waiting in their cards, That process isn't fully in place yet. 502 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: And I think that because so many things have gone 503 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 1: so well when it comes to combating colonnavirus, when it 504 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 1: comes to, for example, the benefit of this vaccine so 505 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:20,360 Speaker 1: much stronger than anyone expected, people haven't really been anticipating hurdles. 506 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 1: But the truth is is that this is a massive 507 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: public health undertaking and it's going to take a couple 508 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: of days to get it going. And that's what Dr 509 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: Fauci was talking about this weekend when he was saying, 510 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,199 Speaker 1: we can already see that things are getting better, and 511 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 1: when you look at next week in the week after, 512 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: things will be better still. Well, given what you said, 513 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 1: I guess the faster is the better rifle. Yeah, absolutely, 514 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: And hopefully you know, this is some initial stumping blocks 515 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: that we can pick up at the momentum. Michelle Cortes, 516 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. As always, Michelle 517 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 1: is a senior health science and medical technology reporter for 518 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, joining us on the phone from Minneapolis. And again, Vannie, 519 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: I guess you know. Even Merida Blasio here in New 520 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: York City says that beginning this week, vaccines will really 521 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 1: ramp up and will so we'll do so throughout the month. Yes, 522 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: this is. New York reports today one hundred seventy new 523 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: deaths and eleven thousand, two hundred nine new cases. Thanks 524 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 525 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 526 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, 527 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 528 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 529 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio