1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:10,320 Speaker 1: Agree a five dollars? This is a rat up copy 4 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: tackle Hit one man. You're saying humans need fantasy to 5 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be my goodness. 6 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: I speak. 7 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: Prose the best, relentless, refusing to give up. 8 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, babe less. Welcome to the 9 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: Fantasy Flex Podcast presented by Prize Picks. I am your host, 10 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 2: Chris Raybon, and today is our props episode for week two. 11 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: I'm here with my guy, Sean Kerner. Sean, you went 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: five for five on your props last week. Just blew 13 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: me out of the water. So you want to do 14 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: you want to take a victory lap? 15 00:00:58,040 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: Yes? I do. 16 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 3: You know I went five and oh last week and 17 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 3: we've talked about it at length this week. How week one, 18 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 3: it's one of the trickier weeks to project because we're 19 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 3: kind of just going off beat reports. 20 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: Intuition, things like that. 21 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: But now we have a week's worth of data, which 22 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 3: admittedly isn't a big sample size, but at least it's 23 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 3: something so I feel even better about my projections and 24 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 3: picks this week. If you could believe it, So you're 25 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: gonna go like six or five. I know it's possible. Yeah, 26 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 3: maybe I won't flex these. I'm just going to go 27 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 3: straight for the power play. 28 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: Oh, you got to man live a little So let's 29 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: get right into the show. 30 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 2: And we're going to do quarterback prop, two running back props, 31 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 2: and two receiver tight end props. So Sean, start us 32 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: out with your first prop, the quarterback prop. 33 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 3: I am going with Jamis Winston over two hundred and 34 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 3: thirty passing yards. It's kind of weird that this is 35 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 3: kind of a Week one overreaction line when he threw 36 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 3: for five freaking touchdowns, but he only threw for one 37 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,959 Speaker 3: hundred and forty yards because the Packers really just did 38 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 3: nothing on offense, so the Saints didn't really have to 39 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 3: throw much. Jamis Winston only had twenty passing attempts last week, 40 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 3: so this seems weird to say. But this should be 41 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 3: a more competitive game this week against the Panthers. You know, 42 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 3: the Saints are minus three and a half, so I 43 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 3: think we're gonna see Jamis Winston get to throw. 44 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: It around a little bit more. 45 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 3: And he does look like a completely different quarterback in 46 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 3: this scheme. He's going to be more efficient, So I 47 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 3: think he has a higher floor than we're used to 48 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 3: seeing and the Bruce Arians offenses of the world. So 49 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 3: I love the over here. I'm projecting this culture to 50 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 3: two fifty actually, and I would take this up to 51 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 3: two thirty five and a half. 52 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, So explain to the people real quick, why, Okay, 53 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: you're projecting it to fifty, but you would take it 54 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 2: to thirty five and a half because I think some 55 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 2: people they struggled to kind of understand, you know, the 56 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 2: me versus the median, and sometimes they hear us say okay, 57 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 2: I got this projected year. 58 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: But I'll only take it to hear So explain that 59 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: for the people out there. 60 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, when it comes to quarterback props, you know, 61 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 3: passing yards. You know, if you're showing about twenty yards 62 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: of discrepancy between your projection and the prop, that's probably 63 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 3: worth the same amount as say, you know, five rushing 64 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 3: yards or five receiving yards. So you know, we have 65 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 3: a high higher range of outcomes when it comes to 66 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 3: passing yards. But when it comes to my projected median, 67 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 3: So that's I've done a lot of testing when it 68 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 3: comes to projecting players. So typically of my projections that 69 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 3: you see on fancy labs or just you know, fancy football. 70 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: Those are my mean projections. 71 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 3: So that's sort of the average if they were to 72 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 3: play this game a thousand times, let's say, but the 73 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 3: media is typically lower and we don't have enough time 74 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 3: to kind of go and why that is. But I'm 75 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 3: usually adjusting for that, and I'm trying to find how 76 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 3: much I would take it up to where I think 77 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: I'll still have about a fifty eight percent chance of hitting. 78 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 3: So that's the long story short why I'm kind of 79 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 3: choosing these numbers that I'm saying I will pick it 80 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 3: up to or down to. Yeah, I totally agree. 81 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 2: I think it's just I just wanted to kind of 82 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: get your thoughts on that because I know people probably wondering, like, 83 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 2: why would you take it like fifteen yards below? But yeah, 84 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 2: I agree. I think you know, Winston's in a good spot. 85 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 2: I know the Saints are having some issues, so you 86 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: know with the coaching staff and COVID and how crazy 87 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 2: is is that Michael Thomas LANs on the COVID was 88 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 2: I mean, this is this is shaping up is such 89 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: a disaster season from Michael Thomas. But such a great 90 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 2: season for the Saints because they're just so low Codd 91 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: So it's very interesting. But yeah, I think that was 92 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 2: a fluky game script in Week one. I would expect 93 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: James to be more to be a lot closer to 94 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 2: the week average most weeks, or at least closer to that, 95 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 2: you know, two hundred, what was it, two forty seven? 96 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 3: I think that Breeze averaged last year. Yeah, yeah, sum 97 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 3: or other I think is his baseline. 98 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: Right, all right. 99 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 2: For my first prop, the quarterback prop I'm going with 100 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 2: is when we talk I think earlier in the week, 101 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,799 Speaker 2: but Matt Jones under two fifty and a half passing yards, 102 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 2: I have just closer to to thirty and the reason being, 103 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 2: I know he threw for two seventy nine last week, 104 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 2: but you have to look at the game scripts with 105 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 2: these things, and New England spent only two minutes and 106 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 2: thirty seconds of that entire game against Miami with the lead, 107 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 2: So mac Jones thirty eight of his thirty nine pass 108 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 2: at steps came well trailing. You know, it was just 109 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 2: one of those situations where the Patriots never really got 110 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 2: a handle on the game due to some you know, 111 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 2: some fumbling issues. They couldn't quite get out in front, 112 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 2: and I don't think that's necessarily going to be the 113 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 2: issue against the New York Jets. We've seen this line 114 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 2: move from about three and a half to six in 115 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 2: favor of the Patriots. The Jets, of course, had some 116 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 2: key players go down, namely Makai Becton their offense. 117 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: To the left tackle. 118 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 2: So I think the Patriots are going to play from 119 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 2: a leading game script in this spot, and you're going 120 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 2: to see a lot fewer pass attempts, especially going on 121 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 2: a road divisional game, usually tight, low scoring type of affairs. 122 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 2: Divisional unders in Week two especially usually hit almost sixty percent. 123 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: So I think this is going to be a run 124 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: heavy game. 125 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 2: Script four New England, and I'm projecting Mac Jones closer 126 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 2: to two hundred thirty yards and the two hundred and fifty, 127 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: so I'd take it to about two hundred thirty five 128 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 2: as well. 129 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you with Mac Jones being you know, 130 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: in the low two thirties. And I think when we 131 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 3: talked about this prop on Tuesday, it was about seven 132 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:35,119 Speaker 3: yard hire. I'm hire, yeah, yeah, yeah, So it's starting 133 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 3: to go down, but not enough. Yeah, I gotta get 134 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 3: closer to two forty I think, so it's still there's 135 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 3: still some value here. 136 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 2: Yep, all right, let's let's go to running backs. Who 137 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 2: is your first running back prop for week number two? 138 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 3: My first running back prop is Melvin Gordon over forty 139 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 3: five and a half rushing yards against the lowly Jaguars. 140 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 3: And I realize everyone including me, wants to see Givonte 141 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 3: Williams takeover this backfield, but as you mentioned right before 142 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 3: the season started not so fast, this is still Melvin 143 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:09,239 Speaker 3: Gordon's backfield. 144 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: And he actually looked really good in week one. 145 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 3: He was actually the fastest ball carrier according next in 146 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 3: stats in week one was that long run. Yeah, so 147 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: the seventy yard touchdow run he reached twenty one point 148 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 3: five miles per hour, So he still got it. 149 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I could have, Like I could have. 150 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 2: I wouldn't have guessed he would have been the fastest, 151 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 2: but I would have guessed you'd be in the conversation 152 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 2: because after seeing that run, it was like he got 153 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 2: past the first wave. And then I forget who somebody 154 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 2: had an angle on him. I don't know if it 155 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: was Bradbury, I forget who the Giants defender was, but 156 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 2: I just remember going, wow, like he straight outran the dude, 157 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 2: and like, you don't think of Melvin Gordon as that 158 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: that type of runner, especially at this stage in his career. 159 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 3: He's what like twenty eight years old now, but yeah, 160 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 3: he was a little bit younger. He seems like twenty eight. Huh, 161 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 3: but he's his body is quite thirty eight. Yeah, exactly exactly. 162 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 3: But you know, this is the time of year they 163 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 3: can lean on him, especially against the Jaguars. I think 164 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 3: this is this is the time to kind of lean 165 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 3: on him, and I wouldn't be surprised by the way 166 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: he is twenty eight. Oh he is twenty eight. Okay, sorry, 167 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: good call, good call. But I think I wouldn't be 168 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 3: surprised if Javonte Williams has a much bigger role as 169 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 3: the season goes on. But right now, this is Melvin 170 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 3: Gorre's backfield, so this is the type of matchup then 171 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 3: they're going to lean on him. So I'm projecting this 172 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 3: closer to fifty seven and a half, which is a 173 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 3: pretty big delta when it comes to rushing yard, So 174 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 3: I would take this up to forty nine and a half. 175 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 3: But I just love the upside this because of the 176 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 3: game script should be run heavy. You know, they just 177 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,599 Speaker 3: lost Jerry Judy unfortunately, so just all signs points to 178 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 3: Gordon going over here. 179 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean regarding Davonte Williams, we just got 180 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 2: to be happy he's active. After the shenanigans that went 181 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 2: on in Week one, I mean, very disappointing sermon. You know, 182 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,719 Speaker 2: you you said Michael Carter probably is eventually going to 183 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 2: get that job. At least he's active, but you know, 184 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 2: disappointing start I think to the season for you're just 185 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 2: the usage for some of these rookies, rookie running backs. 186 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 2: And speaking of disappointing usage, my first running back prop 187 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 2: is going to be related to that for Zach Moss 188 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 2: because he was another healthy scratch, so Devin's Singletary. We'll 189 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: see if mosses a scratch this week, but either way, 190 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 2: I think Singletary has kind of earned that lead back role. 191 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 2: So I'm going over forty seven and a half rushing 192 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 2: yards for Singletary seventy three percent of the backfield carries 193 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 2: in Week one, but they only had fifteen backfield carries. 194 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 2: Now Miami allowed double that to New England twenty nine carries. 195 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 2: One hundred and nineteen yards. I don't expect Buffalo to 196 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 2: go crazy running the bubble. Remember they played Pittsburgh. It's 197 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 2: really tough to run against Pittsburgh. It's not quite Tampa Beta, 198 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 2: but it's been pretty tough over the last few years 199 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 2: to run on that Pittsburgh front. 200 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: So I think, you know, it was it. 201 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 2: Was encouraging that Singletary was still able to, you know, 202 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,079 Speaker 2: play well that in that tough matchup. 203 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: I think he got what was it, seventy two yards? 204 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,559 Speaker 2: So I like, yeah, I like anytime you have because 205 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 2: percentage of carries and things like that, that's since since 206 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,719 Speaker 2: like a coach is deciding it, you know, it's kind 207 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 2: of human decide, it's not it's prone to like variants 208 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: and it's a little easier to project. So I always 209 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 2: look for these situations where guys are getting a high 210 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 2: percentage of snaps, high percentage of carries, And I love 211 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 2: this prop Devin Singletary over forty seven and a half 212 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: against a Miami defense that can definitely be be run on. 213 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, when we were trying to see, you know, like 214 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 3: who we're going to pick for this pod, I left 215 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,479 Speaker 3: the Singletary prop for you because. 216 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: I know you were thanks to and his heart earlier 217 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: in the week. 218 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: But I love this over as well, and I'm projecting 219 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 3: zach Moss to be active and I still have Singletary 220 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 3: for like more than ten yards over this. I think 221 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 3: one of the things is Singletary he's never going to 222 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 3: see a stack box or very rarely, and last week, 223 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 3: according next Toyen Sets, he saw zero stack boxes. So 224 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 3: he's gonna have plenty of room to run whenever they 225 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 3: want to run. And the only reason they took him 226 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 3: out of the game briefly last week was because he 227 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 3: was only with like a shoulder injury or something, so 228 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 3: they intended him for him to be a true workhorse. 229 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 3: That's kind of why I think they had zach Moss inactive. 230 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 3: So I wouldn't be surprised if zach Moss is inactive 231 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 3: again and Singletary just like crushes this prop. So I'm 232 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 3: with you on the over as well. Yeah, we've seen 233 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 3: that in the past. You know that year with Frank Gore. 234 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 2: The first half of the year they kind of broke 235 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 2: Singletary in, but that second half of the year Gore 236 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 2: would get like one to two touches and Singletary get 237 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 2: like seventeen eighteen, and then we saw that again in 238 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 2: the playoffs. Singletary was just getting a huge workload. So yeah, 239 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 2: hopefully it continues. But it was a little, like you said, 240 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 2: a little bit of wiggle room because he should be 241 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 2: relatively efficient with the white boxes. All right, where are 242 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 2: you going for running back prop? Number two? 243 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 3: Well, I have to take Derrick Henry over eighty four 244 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards. I feel like this is 245 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 3: a treat. This is a Week one overreaction kind of line. 246 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 3: I expect the whole entire Tennessey offense to bounce back 247 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 3: after that dreadful Week one performance. The real reason I 248 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: like this is because Derek Henry is really good at football. 249 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 3: He went over this number eleven of sixteen games last year. 250 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 3: That's a sixty eight percent clip. I have no reason 251 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 3: why you know he'd be in such a steep decline 252 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 3: this year. We can't expect that going forward here, So 253 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 3: I'm projecting this closer in ninety five and a half, 254 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 3: your typical Derrick Henry massive, massive rushing hour projection, So 255 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 3: I would take this up to about eighty eight and 256 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 3: a half. 257 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I haven't even what do I have 258 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 2: about Yeah, I haven't met I still have him a 259 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 2: one o two, so like that's mean, yeah, I mean 260 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 2: that's I think you have about about six yards. 261 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: Higher than you have them, but we're one on one 262 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: and a half I have. But yeah, I agree. I 263 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: think listen, this Seattle run defense is no joke. But 264 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: more so, it's just a volume. 265 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: With Derrick Henry, the yards after contact you don't expect them. 266 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 2: You know, he still got seventeen carries last week in 267 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: a pretty bad game script, So you know, it's not 268 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 2: like like Jonathan Taylor last week. I was worried because 269 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 2: you have more. You have like nim Hines and they 270 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 2: said they want to getting more involved. So it's you know, 271 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 2: with Derrick Henry, if he comes out at all, it's 272 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 2: going to be in the past game, you know. 273 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: So the rushing prop, I would be less worried. 274 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: About with Henry than with a guy like Taylor, who 275 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 2: he went under with last week. 276 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you there. 277 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: For my second running back prop, going Darryl Henderson over 278 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 2: fifty seven and a half rushing yards, I have this. 279 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: Closer to sixty two. 280 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 2: So about an attempt of an edge here in terms 281 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 2: of the median. He had sixteen of seventeen backfield carries, 282 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 2: or ninety four percent. Sony Michelle jogged in for one 283 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 2: carry with like five minutes left in the game, and 284 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 2: he didn't even get the series. Like usually the backup 285 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 2: running back he gets like a drive a series. You know, 286 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 2: usually it's you know, he gets like the first of 287 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 2: the second quarter, maybe the first of the fourth quarter, 288 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 2: you know, even in like when you have a workhorse. 289 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 2: But no, Sony Michelle literally got that one carry, jogged 290 00:13:55,640 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 2: back out, you know, barely played many snaps. Henderson would 291 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 2: the guy and Indian app was in a low volume 292 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 2: play game for Seattle. I think Seattle ran awy fifty 293 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 2: three plays. Seattle's back still talied one hundred and four 294 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: yards on the ground, so nearly double this prop. So yeah, 295 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 2: I like, I like Henderson over fifty seven and a 296 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 2: half and I'd take it to sixty. 297 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you here, And we talked about on 298 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 3: Tuesday's pod. But Sammy Michelle just came in briefly in 299 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: garbage time and then they put. 300 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 1: Henderson back in there. But one of the things, you know, 301 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: one of my. 302 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 3: Pet peeves is people that just say, oh, preseason doesn't 303 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 3: matter this and that, Like, of course it doesn't matter 304 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 3: in the grand scheme of things, but you can gain 305 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 3: a lot of information based on preseason and the Rams 306 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 3: bubble wrap Darryl Henderson. He didn't play a single snap, 307 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 3: so we knew that they were going to treat him 308 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 3: like the workhorse back heading in the season, and lo 309 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 3: and behold we saw that week one. So I think 310 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 3: I don't think the market has quite realized that. Yeah, 311 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 3: but you know, a game like this, I think we 312 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 3: could see him approach twenty carries. 313 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you on the over here. My 314 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:08,239 Speaker 1: favorite prop. 315 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 2: Of week one actually was not It had nothing to 316 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 2: do it had something to do with Henderson, But books 317 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: had Sony Michelle at over under five and a half 318 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 2: receiving yards, and I'm paging that under and so I'm 319 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 2: hoping they like drop it's like four and a half. 320 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: And I'll still go under this week. 321 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 3: You're sing, Michelle, Yeah, yeah, anything above a half is 322 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 3: probably a sure game. 323 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, he like, he's more likely than not not to catch. 324 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: A pass right for now, I mean towards the end 325 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 3: of the season, who knows, because he was a decent 326 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 3: pass catching back at Georgia. The Patriots isn't using that way, 327 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 3: but it's clear that he's just a sort of an 328 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 3: emergency change of pace back right now. So we probably 329 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 3: don't see much of him for the first few games anyways. 330 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 2: And when the Patriots use you a certain way, I mean, 331 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 2: I still take notice of it, because it's like, you know, 332 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 2: the Patriots saw him every day in practice, and they 333 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 2: decided that they were going to give him like fifteen 334 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: carries and no catches every week. So I mean that 335 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 2: for something, because then we kind of now the Rams 336 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 2: aren't giving him work at all. But he only ran 337 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 2: one route I believe it was. So yeah, we're off topic. 338 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 2: Let's let's go to your first receiving prop. I am 339 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 2: going Henry Ruggs under forty three and a half receiving yards. 340 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 2: You know, by now we sort of know the type 341 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 2: player Rugs is. He's a low volume home good one. 342 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 2: What not a good good one? I wouldn't say that. 343 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: No, I'm out on Henry Ruggs. 344 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 2: Wait wait, wait, when every receiver on the Raiders except 345 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 2: what he sneat is better than you, I'm out. 346 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 3: Well, I think Derek Carr only has eyes for Darren Waller, 347 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 3: but that's for another time. But you know, in fourteen games, 348 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 3: he has yet to see more than five targets. This 349 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 3: is Rugs and you know he's only cleared this number 350 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 3: five of fourteen games. When he does go over this number, 351 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 3: he goes over by a mile. So you know he's 352 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 3: rarely close to his proplem. 353 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: So I have his median sort of thirty four and 354 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: a half. 355 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 3: He just he has a very low floor every week 356 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 3: and I would take this down to about thirty nine 357 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 3: and a half. 358 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I listen, I expected Ruggs to have 359 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,439 Speaker 2: a breakout this year. But I mean the more I 360 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 2: watch him and the more I hear now starts talk 361 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 2: about him because you know, they get the access to 362 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 2: the coaches. It's just like he's putting our pressure on himself. 363 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 2: Oh he got he had to get more physical. But 364 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 2: it's like this dude just doesn't get open, like all 365 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 2: his speed and he just doesn't get open, like he's 366 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 2: never opened. 367 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 3: Like. 368 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: I don't think it's Derek Carr not having eyes for him. 369 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 1: I think Derek Carr throws the open guy. Derek Carr 370 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: doesn't like to hold the ball. Darren Waller gets open 371 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 1: Brian Edwards got open even and when Brian at least 372 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: when Brian Edwards is covered. He's a bigger guy. Yeah, 373 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 1: he's hard. 374 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 3: He's like a crab tree. You know, you'll agree that 375 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 3: Ruggs will have a few monster games this year. 376 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 2: Correct, Uh, Derek is Greg Williams still employed by NFL defense. No, so. 377 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: That Runs only big game went against the Chiefs. 378 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 3: I think, right, well, I'm betting the under here, so 379 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 3: I'm not trying to out from either way. 380 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 1: It probably won't happen against the Steelers, is what my 381 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 1: angle is. This is going John Ross fast. Oh yeah 382 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: I could. Yeah, yeah, it has gone that direction because 383 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 1: that's the thing. 384 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 2: Runs hasn't even I mean, I know he missed a 385 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 2: few games last year, but like, yeah, like he starts 386 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 2: missing games and injuries. 387 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: I mean it seems like it can only go downhill. 388 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 2: Maybe it's an overreaction, but I you know, I can't 389 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 2: give just got any more chances. 390 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: The John Ross comparison is probably a spot on. Unfortunately. 391 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, like Runs in like two years will be like 392 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 2: the giant sixth receiver. Yeah behind CJ board. Uh another 393 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 2: worrysome sign for my first receiving problem. Something that you know, 394 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 2: I think a lot of us were high on coming 395 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 2: in the year that was. I mean, I don't really 396 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 2: know what to make of it, but Robert Woods did 397 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,959 Speaker 2: not operate as the every down player that we've been 398 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,360 Speaker 2: accustomed to. He ran around only two thirds of the dropbacks, 399 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 2: behind not only Cooper Cup who was out there every snap, 400 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 2: but also Van Jefferson. So I don't know if this 401 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 2: was kind of a one week deal what was going 402 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 2: on there. But I'm going under Robert. 403 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: Woods sixty three and a half receiving yards. 404 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: Because I mean, even if Robert Woods was a full 405 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,880 Speaker 2: time player, this would be kind of his median, but we. 406 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: Don't know if he is. 407 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 2: So, you know, three catches twenty seven yards last week 408 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 2: on four targets. Now you're playing a pretty decent coach defense, 409 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 2: you know. I know Tyler Lockett got some big plays, 410 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 2: but they were able to corral DK metcalf for most 411 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 2: of the game. Lock And only got five catches. Metcalfs 412 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 2: got four. Like, I just don't know what to make 413 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 2: of Woods. Maybe, you know, we know Jared Goff was 414 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 2: more underneath thrower that helped Woods, and in Cooper Cup 415 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 2: he makes best friends with every quarterback, so maybe he 416 00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 2: kind of won Stafford over and then you have Van 417 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 2: Jeffers on this year to breakout track. So you know, 418 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 2: until we see Robert Woods become a full time guy again, 419 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 2: I think you have to slam this this under sixty 420 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 2: three and a half. 421 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think for now anyway, Robert Woods has a 422 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 3: much lower floor than Reuse to sing, but I can't. 423 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 3: I can't bring myself there. I think I need to 424 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 3: see one more game to figure out what the hell 425 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 3: is going on here because the routes run rate was 426 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 3: very bizarre, and like you said, Cooper Cup, I mean, 427 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 3: it was surprising if you as a ten plus catch 428 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 3: game here. So I'm with you on the Woods prop 429 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 3: in terms of projection, but I just can't that against 430 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 3: him quite yet. I think we need to see one 431 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 3: more game. But it's very concerning. 432 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 2: After we with sixty three five, that's that would be 433 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 2: like a if the prop even if he was like 434 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 2: a ninety against the Colts, Like, yeah, no, that's just 435 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 2: going to give up, like the dest is going to 436 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 2: get like bleed receiving production. 437 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 1: Yeah no, I agree. 438 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 3: Like I'm projecting him at fifty eight, so his median 439 00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 3: is probably closer to fifty three. 440 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: I just don't. 441 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 3: He's one of those players this week. I don't feel 442 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 3: comfortable projecting at all. And he's, like I said, he's 443 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 3: typically a high floor player. Yeah, so that's that's my 444 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 3: only reason why I'm staying away from it. But I 445 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 3: am absolutely inligned with you in terms of like process 446 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 3: and projecting. It's just I kind of need to see 447 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 3: one more week of data before we can write them 448 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 3: off quite yet. 449 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: Not that you're writing them off, Yeah, I'm just I mean, 450 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: I just don't. 451 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 2: I'm just kind of taking advantage of the fact that 452 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 2: I don't feel like his prop was adjusted enough, given 453 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 2: the fact that his routes went down by like twenty 454 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 2: five percent total. 455 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 1: And maybe they'll get him involved in the running game, right, Yeah, 456 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: and they and they always do. But I think I 457 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 1: rather do it now. 458 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 2: While we while he's still in this because I mean, maybe, 459 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 2: you know, maybe it comes out a lot of times 460 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 2: what happens with these guys is like it comes out 461 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 2: later after the year that like, oh, I were dealing 462 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 2: with some kind of unknown injury, but like, yeah, like 463 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 2: route the biggest best predictor of routes run in the 464 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 2: current week, is routes running the last week, So yeah, 465 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 2: I agree, And. 466 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: This is I mean, player props are a market. 467 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 3: You're you know, you're selling high on him, and who knows, 468 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 3: you know, two weeks from now, his average prop might 469 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 3: be like fifteen a half yards and we'll pass on that. 470 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,879 Speaker 3: But right now, yeah, I think if if you have 471 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 3: an angle. 472 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 1: Like that, go for it. All right, where are you 473 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: going with your second. 474 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 3: Well, I'm so I'm saving the best for last year, 475 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 3: and I'm going Tyler Higbee to smash over forty and 476 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 3: a half receiving yards like this is my favorite prop 477 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 3: right now on the board. And he had a solid 478 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 3: week one, you know, going five catches for sixty eight yards, 479 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 3: no touchdowns, you know, okay, but you know his underlying 480 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: usage is just insane. He played every single snap he 481 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 3: ran arount ninety three percent of the time, which we 482 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 3: know that's elite for tight ends. 483 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 1: Sounds like Robert Woods used to be. 484 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 3: You'll, yeah, but I mean Woods role for tight ends, 485 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:57,959 Speaker 3: that's like Travis Kelsey, Logan Logan, Thomas better and you know, 486 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 3: a twenty four percent target share. So when it comes 487 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 3: to this Rams offense, Matt Stafford's going to elevate it 488 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 3: to the levels we saw in you know, twenty eighteen, 489 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, We're Tyler Higby went off at the end 490 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 3: of the season, so I'm expecting that kind of breakout 491 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 3: starting now. So now's the time to buy alow on 492 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 3: Tyler Higby wherever and whenever you can. I'm projecting this 493 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 3: way over probably closer to fifty five yards, and I 494 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 3: would take it up to about forty seven. 495 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: And a half. 496 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like we have so we have three 497 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 2: rams on the you know, in our props, and yeah, 498 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 2: I have it. I have it about three yards oder 499 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 2: than you at fifty two. But I'm right in line 500 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 2: with you know Higbee. Well, you know average projection clearing 501 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 2: fifty yards easily. 502 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 1: So I like that one. 503 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 2: I mean, you can't go wrong kind of targeting tight 504 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 2: ends who run a lot of routes, because that's just 505 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 2: it's gonna be the most predicted thing that you can get. 506 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 2: You know, the targets sometimes they'll be this, times they won't. 507 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 2: But if you're getting a guy that's on the field 508 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 2: every snap, because remember, you know, tight ends are going 509 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 2: to block here and there too, So like the more 510 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 2: snaps you're on the field. 511 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: The higher the ceiling is, the higher the floor is. 512 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 3: So yeah, and I think with players like well Matthew 513 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 3: Stafford of course is going to elevate the offense, but 514 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 3: having guys like Deshaun Jackson Van Jefferson potentially too too 515 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 3: out well going deep, and then you have you know, 516 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 3: Woods and cut maybe culser line of scrimmage, and you 517 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 3: have Higbee just has an entire middle of the field 518 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 3: to himself. 519 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: He has room to run. 520 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,160 Speaker 3: Just everything I saw about Week one screens elite tight 521 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 3: end one the rest of the way. So I want 522 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 3: to buy in on him as much as I can 523 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 3: early on. 524 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: Yep. 525 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, like this is a big like if he goes 526 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 2: off this week, I mean he's probably a top five 527 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 2: tight end going forward because you know last week, I 528 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: know the Bears like to you know, they play that 529 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 2: same scheme the Rams do a lot of the time, 530 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 2: you know, that kind. 531 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: Of too deep show the Coats. 532 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 2: I think a little more balance, So we'll see if 533 00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 2: he can, if he can kind of get get openings 534 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 2: this week and kind of pay off on all those routes. Yeah, 535 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 2: it's it's it's gonna be hard to fade him at 536 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 2: any point this year. 537 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 1: For my last receiver prop, I'm going with. 538 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 2: Danny Amandola under twenty nine and a half receiving yards. 539 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 2: And this one for me is just I mean regression 540 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 2: because Amandola ran a route on. 541 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: Just forty three percent of the dropbacks last week. 542 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 2: That could go down even more because remember Anthony Miller 543 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 2: was inactive last week, but we'll see what happens, you know, 544 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 2: this week, so that the slot receiver duties could be 545 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 2: kind of split up even more. But Amadola only had 546 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 2: a three point eight A dot, so his average up 547 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 2: to target was under four yards. He had five targets 548 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 2: and he caught all five and just barely went over 549 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 2: this profit. 550 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: At thirty four yards last week. 551 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 2: So he got to catch one hundred percent of his 552 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 2: targets just to get like five yards over this. I 553 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 2: don't think you're going to see that this week against Cleveland. 554 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 2: I just Danny Amendola is a is the older guy. 555 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 2: He's you know, there's not enough routes here. So I 556 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 2: haven't projected closer to twenty yards just because the A 557 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 2: died is so low and you can't expect him to 558 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 2: always see that high of a target share or and 559 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,480 Speaker 2: you can see his routes going down, So Amandola under 560 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half. 561 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you there. I'm projecting this closer at 562 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 3: eighteen yards because it sounds like it sounds like Anthony Miller. 563 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 3: Anthony Miller is returning this week, So once you factor that, 564 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 3: and I don't see how Ammondola is gonna be able 565 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 3: to see enough targets to go over this. And Amandol 566 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 3: is the type of player that he can get like 567 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 3: three catches and still go under. So a low ADP 568 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 3: player like that, especially when Tyrod Taylor is just chucking 569 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 3: at deep like like he did last week. 570 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: Ammandole is in a tough spot. I went you on 571 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: the ender here as well. 572 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 2: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is our Elite 573 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,640 Speaker 2: Entry segment. Sean and I dive in the Prize Fix 574 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 2: app and compare our player projectors to the props that 575 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 2: we can build some entries with prize picks, and we're 576 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 2: going to go with our best bets here. So, Sean, 577 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 2: what's your number one best bet for prize pick prop. 578 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 1: For Week two? 579 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 3: So my number one best bet this week is Tyler 580 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,959 Speaker 3: Higbee to go over forty and a half receiving yards. 581 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 3: I am buying low on Tyler Higbee. I think he's 582 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 3: going to erupt the rest of the season, but starting 583 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 3: this week. You know, he played every single snap last week, 584 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 3: so Gerald Everett is no longer concerned because he's gone. 585 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: He has no competition. 586 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,679 Speaker 3: He saw a twenty four percent target shair and Matthew 587 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 3: Stafford is going to take this offense to the stratosphere, 588 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 3: so Tyler, Tyler Higby is going to benefit from that. 589 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 3: I'm projecting this way over closer to fifty five and 590 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 3: a half yards, and I would take this up to 591 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 3: about forty seven and a half. 592 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it, Tyler Higbye. 593 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 2: Great spot, running all the route, point all the snaps 594 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 2: for my best bet of week number two. So I 595 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 2: am going with ganny A Mondola under twenty nine and 596 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,679 Speaker 2: a half receiving yards at prize Picks. And you mentioned it. 597 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 2: You haven't projected at eighteen yards. I haven't projected at twenty. 598 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 2: I would take this down to about twenty four and 599 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,919 Speaker 2: a half. It's just a spot where Amendola is getting 600 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 2: under four yards per average up to target per target, 601 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 2: and he might be knocked down another ring on the 602 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 2: totem poll at wide receiver if Anthony Miller returns, so 603 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 2: we might see a Mondola barely play this week. And 604 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 2: even if he catches four or five balls with a 605 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 2: three point eight to a dot, you still have a 606 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 2: chance to go under twenty nine and a half. So 607 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 2: I love this number, love the prop for Amadola. So 608 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: that's why I'm going with my best bet. How about 609 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 2: you number two? So my number two best bet this 610 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 2: week is Melvin Gordon to go over forty five and 611 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 2: a half rushing yards against the worst team in football 612 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 2: right now, the Jacksonville Jaguars. And this is Melvin Gordon's 613 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 2: backfield right now. It's not rookie Javonte Williams backfield. It 614 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 2: won't be for another few games at least. Melvin Gordon 615 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 2: showed that he still has it in Week one. He 616 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 2: was actually the fastest ball carrier on his seven yard touchdown. 617 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 3: He reached twenty one point five miles power. That was 618 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 3: the fastest ball carrier of the week. So I think 619 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 3: they're going to lean on him heavily here. They should 620 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 3: beat the drivers pretty easily, and without Jerry Judy, I 621 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 3: think they can lean on the run game a bit more. 622 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 3: So I love Gordon to go over this, I'm projecting 623 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 3: at closer to fifty seven and a half yards, so 624 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 3: plenty of room here, and I would take this up 625 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 3: to about forty nine and a half rushing yards. 626 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, and given the team they're playing, given the way 627 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 2: you know, Vic Fangio kind of likes to operate, the 628 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 2: Broncos could run the ball thirty thirty five times, so 629 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 2: Melvin Gordy could easily get to twenty carries in this game, 630 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 2: even with Javonte Williams mixing in for double digit touches himself. 631 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 2: So like the Gordon over, I thought he looked really 632 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 2: good in week number one. For my number two best 633 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 2: bet of Week number two, I'm going Robert Woods under 634 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 2: sixty three and a hal receiving yards. Again, I just 635 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 2: think you have to attack this prop before the market 636 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 2: adjusts because Robert Woods, although he caught a touchdown, only 637 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 2: twenty seven yards on three catches and played only sixty 638 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 2: seven percent of the passing dropback. So that is a 639 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 2: very concerning number considering that we didn't hear about an 640 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 2: injury and Van Jefferson, who a lot of people, including myself, 641 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 2: expected to be behind Deshaun Jackson much less Woods actually 642 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 2: played over eighty five percent, so Van Jefferson was the 643 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 2: true number two receiver in. 644 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 1: The week number one. 645 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to change or not, 646 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 2: but even if this was a normal Woods snap count, 647 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 2: sixty three and a half is not an easy number 648 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 2: to clear against the Colts. You know they held dk 649 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,239 Speaker 2: Metcalf under that. For example last week Tyler Lockett had 650 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 2: the big plays. But it's not a given that. You 651 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 2: know Robert Woods would get this number even playing ninety 652 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 2: percent of the snap So the fact that he played 653 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 2: only sixty seven percent last week in terms of the 654 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 2: past game, I love this under sixty three and a half. 655 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 2: I have it projected about twelve yards lower, so I'll 656 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 2: take it to the it's about fifty two. 657 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 1: And a half. 658 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 2: So love Robert Woods under sixty three and a half 659 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 2: receiving yards on prize picks. All right, So that was 660 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 2: our props episode for week number two. 661 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 1: Remember the lines do move. 662 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 2: On prize picks, so do get your entries in as 663 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 2: soon as possible and be sure to get the best 664 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 2: of the number. You can find Sean on Twitter at 665 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 2: the Underscore Odds Maker. You can find me on Twitter 666 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 2: at Chris Raymond, and you can find us at those 667 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 2: same handles in the award winning Action Network app. Be 668 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 2: sure to check out our projections and rankings on Action 669 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 2: Network and our DFS models Onfantasy labs dot com. 670 00:31:53,760 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 1: Until next time, let's get this money six